#bond market

[ariadneslament]

Bond Vigilante Shit

I have been reading about the "bond vigilantes" these past two days, and this is the song I've been playing as background music.

She don't start it, but she can tell you how it ends Don't get sad, get even.

[altifi1]

This is your sign to start investing.

Get up to 10.70% p.a. XIRR with Muthoottu. Download the AltiFi app and start your investment journey! Visit Us: https://altifi.ai/

[hello-bechnaseekhocom-fan]

EM Bond Index: Potential Gains from Bloomberg's Addition Of India

[siliconpalms]

The Bond Market is Reflecting Reality: deVere CEO

The selling pressure in bonds highlights how the bond market is ‘reflecting the reality’, says the CEO of deVere, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations. The analysis from deVere Group’s Nigel Green come as the surge in the 10-year yield by approximately 27 basis points over the course of Friday and Monday has sent ripples through the…

[vidhansundriyal]

Invest in High-Return Bonds and Debt Securities in India | Altifi.ai

With AltiFi, you can invest in bonds and debt securities from leading institutions, including financial institutions, large and emerging mid sized corporates, start ups, and unicorns Our products are backed by high standards of corporate governance, and we offer a variety of investment options to meet your individual needs

[paulthepoke]

What Is About To Break? What Scared the Fed? Michael Douville

What is about to break? Something scared the Fed. The Pivot is coming from the Federal Reserve.

Proverbs 27:12 The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it. Proverbs 4:13 Hold on to instruction; do not let go. Guard it, for it is your life. What is about to break? Something scared the Fed. The Pivot is coming from the Federal Reserve. They only do this when something scares them. I am hearing things overseas. Europe is a basket case, Japan is in…

[rethinking-the-dollar]

The Global Economy Gasping For Its Last Breath | Top Stories of The Day! (The People's Talk Show) https://youtube.com/live/Tj43ljJzfOw

[therealtorasia]

Vietnam’s State Bank Takes Steps to Encourage Development of Corporate Bond Market

The State Bank of Vietnam has issued Circular No. 03/2023/TT-NHNN, which suspends the implementation of Clause 11 Article 4 of Circular No. 16/2021/TT-NHNN dated November 10, 2021, that regulates credit institutions and foreign bank branches buying and selling corporate bonds. During the suspension of the implementation of Clause 11 Article 4 of Circular No. 16, credit institutions and foreign…

[redghnews]

Debt Exchange: 8 banks highly exposed to government bonds, may be hit hardest – Report

Debt Exchange: 8 banks highly exposed to government bonds, may be hit hardest – Report

About eight banks [names withheld] are highly exposed to the Government of Ghana securities, particularly bonds, and could therefore be impacted significantly by the Debt Exchange Programme. According to the November 2022 Ghana Fixed Income Market report, the banks (four foreign and four local) together controlled about 83.91% of the debt market share. They traded a significant volume of bonds…

[ajmeraxchange1]

What are Bonds and how to invest?

Bonds are a sort of debt security that can be issued by an organisation, a municipality, or the government (and sometimes by local authorities). They generally pay an annual fixed interest rate. Fixed-income securities include them. In layman's terms, bonds are viewed as a loan from an investor to a borrower, such as a business or government, which entails borrowing money from lenders and then returning the borrowed money to the bondholder via periodic payments over a certain time period with interest. The principle amount refers to the amount borrowed. The capital borrowed by the business for operations is known as the "bond issue," while the interest paid to the lender represents the capital. However, the bond's market value may alter over time. Therefore, government and corporate bonds are simply IOUs. We shall investigate bonds in great detail here. Here are a few of the subjects we'll be talking about on this site. To know more about bonds visit here https://www.ajmeraxchange.co.in/blogs/what-are-bonds-meaning-types-features

[ruegarding]

like the whole point of the ball scene is to humanize cerberus and the underworld. percy literally says "i thought maybe annabeth and i had both had the right idea. even here in the underworld, everybody—even monsters—needed a little attention once in a while." and then almost immediately afterwards percy thinks "the dead aren't scary. they're just sad." the whole point is that the underworld, and hades by extension, isn't scary! that's why percy is so sure he can leave his mother w hades and come back, and that's why he mentions charon and cerberus ("it wouldn't hurt to play with cerberus once in a while. he likes red rubber balls" HELLO) bc he doesn't see hades as the scary, conniving god everyone else does.

[suntails]

🐙⚔️

[imaginariumwanderer]

I'm so conflicted

On one hand, they gave us two cool Dark Choco designs to work with. We also have several cute moment like illusion!Dark Choco missing his father, the flashback, the final scene etc and I love those very much!

On the other, what do you mean he doesn't even physically appear and only gets mentioned in a couple of lines???

I not mad, just sad. They shouldn't have shown him in the trailer if he's not going to play a (bigger) role in the episode. They should've left him out completely sans his Magic Candy, letting us guessing/ thinking whether he'll appears or not. That way the back to back Dark Choco inclusion near the end will be stronger, we can finish the EP off with a final image of Dark Choco looking at the kingdom from afar, hinting at the eventual father-son reunion...

Anyways, I'm gonna go write a fanfic where Dark Cacao and Dark Choco traveled through EP 4 together now

[vidhansundriyal]

Invest in High-Return Bonds and Debt Securities in India | Altifi.ai

With AltiFi, you can invest in bonds and debt securities from leading institutions, including financial institutions, large and emerging mid sized corporates, start ups, and unicorns Our products are backed by high standards of corporate governance, and we offer a variety of investment options to meet your individual needs

[mostlysignssomeportents]

Insurance companies are making climate risk worse

Tomorrow (November 29), I'm at NYC's Strand Books with my novel The Lost Cause, a solarpunk tale of hope and danger that Rebecca Solnit called "completely delightful."

Conservatives may deride the "reality-based community" as a drag on progress and commercial expansion, but even the most noxious pump-and-dump capitalism is supposed to remain tethered to reality by two unbreakable fetters: auditing and insurance:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality-based_community

No matter how much you value profit over ethics or human thriving, you still need honest books – even if you never show those books to the taxman or the marks. Even an outright scammer needs to know what's coming in and what's going out so they don't get caught in a liquidity trap (that is, "broke"), or overleveraged ("broke," again) exposed to market changes (you guessed it: "broke").

Unfortunately for capitalism, auditing is on its deathbed. The market is sewn up by the wildly corrupt and conflicted Big Four accounting firms that are the very definition of too big to fail/too big to jail. They keep cooking books on behalf of management to the detriment of investors. These double-entry fabrications conceal rot in giant, structurally important firms until they implode spectacularly and suddenly, leaving workers, suppliers, customers and investors in a state of utter higgeldy-piggeldy:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/11/29/great-andersens-ghost/#mene-mene-bezzle

In helping corporations defraud institutional investors, auditors are facilitating mass scale millionaire-on-billionaire violence, and while that may seem like the kind of fight where you're happy to see either party lose, there are inevitably a lot of noncombatants in the blast radius. Since the Enron collapse, the entire accounting sector has turned to quicksand, which is a big deal, given that it's what industrial capitalism's foundations are anchored to. There's a reason my last novel was a thriller about forensic accounting and Big Tech:

https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250865847/red-team-blues

But accounting isn't the only bedrock that's been reduced to slurry here in capitalism's end-times. The insurance sector is meant to be an unshakably rational enterprise, imposing discipline on the rest of the economy. Sure, your company can do something stupid and reckless, but the insurance bill will be stonking, sufficient to consume the expected additional profits.

But the crash of 2008 made it clear that the largest insurance companies in the world were capable of the same wishful thinking, motivated reasoning, and short-termism that they were supposed to prevent in every other business. Without AIG – one of the largest insurers in the world – there would have been no Great Financial Crisis. The company knowingly underwrote hundreds of billions of dollars in junk bonds dressed up as AAA debt, and required a $180b bailout.

Still, many of us have nursed an ember of hope that the insurance sector would spur Big Finance and its pocket governments into taking the climate emergency seriously. When rising seas and wildfires and zoonotic plagues and famines and rolling refugee crises make cities, businesses, and homes uninsurable risks, then insurers will stop writing policies and the doom will become undeniable. Money talks, bullshit walks.

But while insurers have begun to withdraw from the most climate-endangered places (or crank up premiums), the net effect is to decrease climate resilience and increase risk, creating a "climate risk doom loop" that Advait Arun lays out brilliantly for Phenomenal World:

https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the-doom-loop/

Part of the problem is political: as people move into high-risk areas (flood-prone coastal cities, fire-threatened urban-wildlife interfaces), politicians are pulling out all the stops to keep insurers from disinvesting in these high-risk zones. They're loosening insurance regs, subsidizing policies, and imposing "disaster risk fees" on everyone in the region.

But the insurance companies themselves are simply not responding aggressively enough to the rising risk. Climate risk is correlated, after all: when everyone in a region is at flood risk, then everyone will be making a claim on the insurance company when the waters come. The insurance trick of spreading risk only works if the risks to everyone in that spread aren't correlated.

Perversely, insurance companies are heavily invested in fossil fuel companies, these being reliable money-spinners where an insurer can park and grow your premiums, on the assumption that most of the people in the risk pool won't file claims at the same time. But those same fossil-fuel assets produce the very correlated risk that could bring down the whole system.

The system is in trouble. US claims from "natural disasters" are topping $100b/year – up from $4.6b in 2000. Home insurance premiums are up (21%!), but it's not enough, especially in drowning Florida and Texas (which is also both roasting and freezing):

https://grist.org/economics/as-climate-risks-mount-the-insurance-safety-net-is-collapsing/

Insurers who put premiums up to cover this new risk run into a paradox: the higher premiums get, the more risk-tolerant customers get. When flood insurance is cheap, lots of homeowners will stump up for it and create a big, uncorrelated risk-pool. When premiums skyrocket, the only people who buy flood policies are homeowners who are dead certain their house is gonna get flooded out and soon. Now you have a risk pool consisting solely of highly correlated, high risk homes. The technical term for this in the insurance trade is: "bad."

But it gets worse: people who decide not to buy policies as prices go up may be doing their own "motivated reasoning" and "mispricing their risk." That is, they may decide, "If I can't afford to move, and I can't afford to sell my house because it's in a flood-zone, and I can't afford insurance, I guess that means I'm going to live here and be uninsured and hope for the best."

This is also bad. The amount of uninsured losses from US climate disaster "dwarfs" insured losses:

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/hurricanes-floods-bring-120-billion-insurance-losses-2022-2023-01-09/

Here's the doom-loop in a nutshell:

As carbon emissions continue to accumulate, more people are put at risk of climate disaster, while the damages from those disasters intensifies. Vulnerability will drive disinvestment, which in turn exacerbates vulnerability.

Also: the browner and poorer you are, the worse you have it: you are impacted "first and worst":

https://www.climaterealityproject.org/frontline-fenceline-communities

As Arun writes, "Tinkering with insurance markets will not solve their real issues—we must patch the gaping holes in the financial system itself." We have to end the loop that sees the poorest places least insured, and the loss of insurance leading to abandonment by people with money and agency, which zeroes out the budget for climate remediation and resiliency where it is most needed.

The insurance sector is part of the finance industry, and it is disinvesting in climate-endagered places and instead doubling down on its bets on fossil fuels. We can't rely on the insurance sector to discipline other industries by generating "price signals" about the true underlying climate risk. And insurance doesn't just invest in fossil fuels – they're also a major buyer of municipal and state bonds, which means they're part of the "bond vigilante" investors whose decisions constrain the ability of cities to raise and spend money for climate remediation.

When American cities, territories and regions can't float bonds, they historically get taken over and handed to an unelected "control board" who represents distant creditors, not citizens. This is especially true when the people who live in those places are Black or brown – think Puerto Rico or Detroit or Flint. These control board administrators make creditors whole by tearing the people apart.

This is the real doom loop: insurers pull out of poor places threatened by climate disasters. They invest in the fossil fuels that worsen those disasters. They join with bond vigilantes to force disinvestment from infrastructure maintenance and resiliency in those places. Then, the next climate disaster creates more uninsured losses. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Finance and insurance are betting heavily on climate risk modeling – not to avert this crisis, but to ensure that their finances remain intact though it. What's more, it won't work. As climate effects get bigger, they get less predictable – and harder to avoid. The point of insurance is spreading risk, not reducing it. We shouldn't and can't rely on insurance creating price-signals to reduce our climate risk.

But the climate doom-loop can be put in reverse – not by market spending, but by public spending. As Arun writes, we need to create "a global investment architecture that is safe for spending":

https://tanjasail.wordpress.com/2023/10/06/a-world-safe-for-spending/

Public investment in emissions reduction and resiliency can offset climate risk, by reducing future global warming and by making places better prepared to endure the weather and other events that are locked in by past emissions. A just transition will "loosen liquidity constraints on investment in communities made vulnerable by the financial system."

Austerity is a bad investment strategy. Failure to maintain and improve infrastructure doesn't just shift costs into the future, it increases those costs far in excess of any rational discount based on the time value of money. Public institutions should discipline markets, not the other way around. Don't give Wall Street a veto over our climate spending. A National Investment Authority could subordinate markets to human thriving:

https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/industrial-policy-requires-public-not-just-private-equity/

Insurance need not be pitted against human survival. Saving the cities and regions whose bonds are held by insurance companies is good for those companies: "Breaking the climate risk doom loop is the best disaster insurance policy money can buy."

I found Arun's work to be especially bracing because of the book I'm touring now, The Lost Cause, a solarpunk novel set in a world in which vast public investment is being made to address the climate emergency that is everywhere and all at once:

https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250865939/the-lost-cause

There is something profoundly hopeful about the belief that we can do something about these foreseeable disasters – rather than remaining frozen in place until the disaster is upon us and it's too late. As Rebecca Solnit says, inhabiting this place in your imagination is "Completely delightful. Neither utopian nor dystopian, it portrays life in SoCal in a future woven from our successes (Green New Deal!), failures (climate chaos anyway), and unresolved conflicts (old MAGA dudes). I loved it."

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/11/28/re-re-reinsurance/#useless-price-signals