#blogger romania

[aryaxbradford]

Grrrr 😾

[murdrballad]

via @folkmoldova

[mihaelapblog]

Eu nu te mai scriu,

Așa cum o făceam cândva

Și chiar de încă te mai știu,

Tu acum ești căminul altcuiva

Eu nu te mai scriu în poezie,

Fiindcă acum ești versul altcuiva

Dragostea noastră a fost prea timpurie

Sau poate am confundat-o noi cu altceva

Și chiar de îmi amintesc din când în când de tine

De dragul a tot ce am împărțit

Eu sper că ai păstrat bucăți din mine

Și în lipsa mea, cu o altă ea ești fericit 🥀

18.ian.2023

[likarotarublogger]

Astăzi, 14 octombrie, ortodocși din toată lumea au venit la Iași, România, cu ocazia sărbătorii Sf. Cuvioasa Parascheva.

Ziua Sfintei Parascheva este una dintre cele mai importante sărbători religioase din România, aducând cu sine o serie de tradiții și obiceiuri menite să o omagieze pe ocrotitoarea Moldovei. Pelerinajul de la Iași al Cuvioasei Parascheva, unde se află moaștele Sfintei, este una dintre cele mai cunoscute tradiții, mii de credincioși adunându-se anual pentru a se ruga și a cere ajutorul Sfintei.

Iată o variantă a rugăciunii către Sfânta Parascheva:

„Sfânta Cuvioasă Maică Parascheva,

Rugați-vă pentru noi păcătoșii, voi care Îl urmați pe Hristos în smerenie și ascultare.

Mijlociți la Dumnezeu pentru sănătatea noastră, pentru a scăpa de necazuri, pentru mântuirea sufletelor noastre.

Ajută-ne să fim mai buni, mai plini de compasiune și mai iertătoare pentru a reuși.

Împărăția Cerurilor. Amine."

Se spune că această rugăciune, rostită cu credință și smerenie, are puterea de a crea minuni. Mulți credincioși mărturisesc că au primit ajutorul Sfintei Parascheva după ce s-au rugat cu evlavie.

Întrucât rugăciunea fără iubire de aproapele nu poate ajunge la Dumnezeu, Care este Iubire, Fericita Parascheva a adăugat la rugăciunile ei încă două fapte bune: postul şi milostenia. Căci postul dă aripi rugăciunii şi o înalţă la cer, iar milostenia, fiica cea dintâi a iubirii, duce rugăciunea înaintea tronului Preasfintei Treimi.

Astfel, mireasa lui Hristos nu gusta nimic până seara, în zilele de post; iar în sărbători, când se întorcea de la biserică, îşi schimba de multe ori hainele ei bune şi de preţ, date de părinţi, cu hainele rele şi rupte ale copiilor săraci, care cereau milostenie la uşa bisericii. Pentru aceasta, cuvioasa primea multe mustrări şi bătăi de la mama ei, când o vedea îmbrăcată în haine urâte şi sărace.” - informează sursa amintită.

Rugăciunea pe care o rostesc credincioșii

„Doamne, Dumnezeul nostru, Tu, Cel ce ai zis și s-a făcut toată făptura, nu întoarce fața Ta de la noi păcătoșii, ca să nu vină asupră-ne mânia cea groaznică și înfri­co­șă­toare a durerilor, care este rodul păcatelor noastre, ce în toată ziua, nenumărate, cu ne­so­co­tință le săvârșim.

Va multumesc din suflet pentru interviu. Părintele Lucian Apopei este directorul de comunicare al Arhiepiscopiei Iașilor, membru al echipei fondatoare a „Ziarul Lumina”.

Îi mulțumesc lui Dumnezeu Atotputernic că m-a ajutat să traversez multe țări și să vin la Iași, România, pentru a realiza un film documentar despre viața duhovnicească a Sfintei Cuvioase Parascheva.

Elena Rodica Rotaru

@elenarodicarotaru-blog @likarotarublogger

Multumesc mult pentru colaborare:

Pãrintele. Lucian Apopei ,

Gigi Cojocaru - Antena 3 CNN

TVR Iasi -Loredan Baiardi

- si Iasi Tv live - Elena Arnãutu .

[dippedanddripped]

WELCOME TO SUCCESSFUL LIVING - DIESEL SPRING SUMMER 2024 BRAND CAMPAIGN

[apollos-olives]

Hey, this is a somewhat complicated personal thing? But I’d really like your weigh in on it— you’re a blogger who’s perspective i respect a lot. I’m wondering if i have the right to call myself palestinian.

A bit of background- i’m a romani-jew. My family is, as far back as i can trace, indigenous to palestine, but when my grandmother was a baby was forced out and fled across the continent to romania, and eventually she left for the US to become a doctor. I believe this was around 1947 when they were forced out, if i’m pinning it to other timelines, but she isn’t sure and neither am i, so i don’t think i have the right to claim that. She doesn’t identify as Palestinian, only roma, and practically raised herself without her parents (who were absent via work) and identifies as jewish, vehemently anti-israeli and not actively practicing because of that. I was raised jewish, but really often with scorn to most local jewish orgs and institutions, and i know my family is very actively excluded from the bullshit ‘right to return’ programmes in our area because we are, well, roma, despite how at this point compared to my grandmother we are very pale— to them, it’s a blood thing. My father is no contact with my grandmother, so i was not raised with her. My father does not identify as Palestinian as well. I wasn’t raised with her culture and practices because of that— I am almost completely divorced from what would be my own culture, but i still, when i hear her stories now, and her perspective on the very active genocide going on, wonder if i have the right to speak on it as a voice with any authority on the matter. Am i able to identify as palestinian? Do i have any claim to it at all, really?

i wrote practically a whole essay and then tumblr deleted it right before i could post. so i'm gonna make my response significantly shorter, but i'll explain why.

you are not allowed to call yourself palestinian. you were never raised as one, you were never part of the culture, and your family does not identify at all as the people of the land. you have not lived your life as a palestinian, and you do not have claim or authority to speak on the matter at the same level of other palestinians at all. it is not your right to call yourself palestinian, and claiming to have any authority of what the palestinian experience is like is incorrect. i assume you're about a quarter palestinian, yes? but only by blood. not by culture or connection or anything. your family identifies as romani, and do not identify with the palestinian identity. you have not experienced life as a palestinian, diaspora or not, and you have not suffered the same type of oppression that indigenous palestinians have faced. while your father would be half palestinian (i assume), he could technically be considered as palestinian diaspora (as would your grandmother), but since both of them have been disconnected from the culture, and don't identify as palestinian, then you do not have claim to that identity. like for example my grandma is half (i'm unsure about the percentage) turkish and palestinian, but my mom does not identify as turkish, and i do not identify as turkish either, because i was never part of the culture and never lived my life as a turkish person. i can say im part turkish by blood as a random fun fact, but claiming i have authority to be a turkish person is not correct. i also want to mention that being palestinian is a nationality, not a race or a specific ethnicity, so that is another factor you must consider when evaluating your identity.

you can, however, look more into palestinian culture and try learning about it. i hope when palestine is free, you can come visit and fall in love with our hospitality and culture, and look into your ancestors who lived there. and if you'd like to connect back with your palestinian roots, that's absolutely something that we are welcoming and would love for you to do. many palestinians who fled during the nakba have a tough history and connection with the land, so i'm sorry your grandma had to leave and disconnect with palestine, but i hope one day you can come to a free palestine and celebrate with us.

if your grandmother was a baby during the nakba, i assume you're very young. around teenage years (early twenties maybe). i know that figuring out your identity is a big part of this stage in your life and you're probably looking into your family's past. i suggest to look into palestinian culture, but don't discard the romani and jewish part of you. being part of those communities is a very culturally rich experience and you should be proud of that. don't stress too much on having to "choose" what you're trying to connect to.

in the end, i can't tell you what to identify as with your romani-jewish family and your palestinian ancestry, but calling yourself palestinian currently is not right. i hope i answered your question.

[sgiandubh]

National personification

The UK has Britannia. France has Marianne. The US have Uncle Sam. National personifications, summing up supposed collective qualities and passing on a message, both to citizens and foreigners alike. Instantly recognizable by just about anyone. To be found everywhere, from city halls (busts, frescoes, tapestries) to subway walls (Army conscription posters - of course it rings a bell!).

Romania has this:

This is Revolutionary Romania, as seen by C.D. Rosenthal, an Austrian painter who found both friendship and an avid clientele among the Romanian young rebels who tried and failed to overthrow the corrupted Ottoman rule, in 1848. Following them in exile and probably also spying on their behalf, Rosenthal was finally arrested in Budapest and tortured to death by the Imperial authorities: a normal occurrence in troubled times. His memory went on and on and on, because the same friends were soon to come back home and become ministers, bankers, newspaper owners: a modern democracy slowly emerged.

This is his most famous portrait and it quickly became our Britannia of sorts. Ceaușescu had it placed in his office, for inspiration - it did not help much, though.

The woman painted by Rosenthal holds the red, yellow and blue flag and is dressed in a Southern peasant costume, as it was worn at the time. She gazes with strength, determination and confidence towards a future that spells free press, parliamentary elections, industrialization and capitalist speculation. In real life, she is Maria Rosetti, a personal friend and sponsor of his. The wife of C.A. Rosetti, an authentic Prince of Genoese and Greek stock, one of the leaders of both the rebellion and the future Liberal Party. Also a many times removed relative of this blogger - but let's not insist. 😉

There is a catch, however, in all this fine and dandy story. Our national personification, the woman I just mentioned, is Scottish. Her life begins in Guernsey in 1819, as Marie Grant, the daughter of Captain Edward Grant, a ship-owner businessman and member of the Clan Grant of Carron and Spey and Marie La Lacheur, a French Huguenot woman.

These people, who fought as Jacobites at Prestonpans and Culloden and whose motto was 'Stand Fast':

Marie came to Wallachia, or what is now the Southern part of Romania, around 1837, following her younger brother, Effingham Grant, who just managed to find a lucrative job as the private secretary of another Scot (Glaswegian, even), Robert Gilmour Colquhoun, the newly appointed British Consul-General. At the time, these were long term postings, not unlike a long sojourn on a space station of sorts: Colquhoun remained in Bucharest from 1835 to 1854, when he eventually was posted to Bosnia.

Because she needed to support herself, Marie found a well paid live-in job as a governess for the family of Ion Odobescu, a high ranking Police honcho (also a far removed relative, this time on my maternal grandmother's side - the world is really, really small). The rest was easy enough: having met Rosetti through her brother, they fell in love, eloped to Plymouth and got married there, for what was to become a life long equal political and business partnership. Because they owned several newspapers, she is our first female journalist. A truly remarkable woman, a philanthropist and an indispensable voice advocating for the dispossessed. Effingham went on to establish the biggest foundry in the country, along with a real estate company, a tobacco manufacture, an orchid greenhouse and a bread factory - all prospered beyond any expectations. A heavy traffic steel bridge in Bucharest still bears his name. Enduring legacies.

For those brave enough or bored enough to look for more, here is the best detailed account on her I could find, based on Guernsey sources (but not only): https://www.priaulxlibrary.co.uk/node/386 .

[grecoromanyaoi]

also previously on rafis blog - which fact anons made up about me is the best

[raremasey]

15 questions, 15 friends

thank you my loves, my darlings, my besties for the tag ily @yoursselo @mountttmase @saltyheartnightmare @mountsmase @bluesmason @carlottawllms @waglifeornolife 🫂🩷🥰

1. are you named after anyone? Not that I know of

2. when was the last time you cried? If it counts I was so close to it yesterday after I dropped my laptop on the floor

3. do you have kids? No but would love some in the future

4. what sports do you play/have played? I actually am not a sports girly at all, in high school I was always avoiding the sports class and didn’t want to do much there 😂

5. do you use sarcasm? Sometimes

6. what is the first thing you notice about people? Their eyes, smile, clothing

7. what is your eye color? Green

8. scary movies or happy endings? Happy endings always, I’m not made for scary things no way

9. any talents? Not really but I was good at drawing & painting

10. where were you born? In a small and pretty city in Romania

11. what are your hobbies? I really like reading, football, f1, travelling (even tho I didn’t go in many places 😂)

12. do you have any pets? I do, actually 3. My pretty little babies, 2 dogs and 1 cat 🥹🥰

13. how tall are you? About 1.63m/5.3 feet

14. favorite subject at school? I really liked English and arts

15. dream job? My dream job rn is social media manager but to be a little delulu rn 😂🤭 I would also love to be a fashion designer, fashion editor or blogger and a f1 driver and most and foremost masey’s wifey 🤭🩷

Tagging: @masonmtxo @ladymarycrawley @masn-mount @lovermase @prideofpd @footiehoemcfc @harvestmount @masons-tours @babygirlbenji @19ndonboy @prettymase ( as almost all of my besties already did this, I won’t tag them again ☺️) and anyone who wants to do it feel free to do it 🎀🩷🫶🏻

[livealittleoc-cb]

Small Update!

❣️: I’m regretting all my decisions…ugh. I tell Cupid ‘hey, I have a photoshoot in NY the day before Thanksgiving, do you want to go with me so you can see New York for yourself and we can see the parade but I need you to be ready and packed soon so we can just relax for about a week, do my shoot, we go to the parade and I just show you around.’ He nods in understanding and then sits around taking pictures of me while I try to nap and wait for their ass-. 😐 Ugh I would have been out by now. He better not take this long when I’m gone for Christmas, I’m leaving for Romania before they’re leaving for Louisiana and at this rate they’re missing their plane-. It’s nice seeing him excited though *small smile*

💘: *running around screaming and tripping* I have nothing for the cold and it’s freaking me out! *tosses clothes into a suitcase* I also ended up redoing my makeup twice cause I got nervous! *whines* I’m happy I get the rest of the holidays off and I’m excited to see New York but I’m more scared then the first time I got on stage-. New place = nerves but I bet I’ll shake them off, it’ll be a fun way to celebrate Thanksgiving before going to visit Ma and my Step Dad in Louisiana! *wings flap happily*

🩵🩵: @monsterhigh-cb [🐟🤍💍 && ⚡💙 && 👻💜 && 🐺💕 && 🎤💖 && 👑💛] @evicted-oc [☕️🤎 && 🐼🖤 && 🔦💛 && 🧊🩵 && 💄🖤] @theinvitation-bot [🐭🩶💒] @welcome-to-maniac [🐇🖤 💍 && 🌻❤️ && 🌕❤️‍🔥 && 🐿️❣️] @fantasyaespa [🐈 💚💍 && ☀️🩵] @k-venturetime [🍓❣️] @multi-joong [🌧️🧡💍 && 🎨💚] @kardpackcb [🌙💝 && 🐺❤️‍🔥]

possible new residents: @faywithlove @badbf-cb @clubwnderland @domxbot @welcometosector1 @lunaaofthemoon @reve-rv @multi-esme @the-hellhounds @san-cb @jinju-oc @enhanced-cb @camboys-com @lavienrosecabaretxo @oppositesattraxt @domrachaa @hwangsiblings-oc @coffeexdreamcb @silcntxnight @moonlightchn @blogger-yura @crimson-l @thesugaredalchemists @folklore-cb @doom-bc @hearthstone-apothecary @vandalsxcb @redlight-cb @inferno-cb @damnationinc @moongoddesselene @darkloversxcb @urluvlyfe @9ateez-multiau-bot @minsour-r @jeonsoyeonn @secretscb [DM + / -]

[usafphantom2]

Fire at MiG factory in Moscow

Fernando Valduga

A fire occurred at the Russian aircraft factory MiG Aircraft Corporation, which produces and maintains combat jets.

The Russian media reported that the fire occurred in one of the production workshops of the MiG factory in the Russian capital Moscow. This place is under reconstruction, but it is in front of the main factory building.

The fire in an area of 70 square meters was located on the second and third floors of the building and all employees were evacuated. The cause of the fire is unknown.

According to local media, from 2 p.m. the fire managed to be extinguished. The roof of the building was damaged and the firefighters continue to work on site.

Currently the factory that caught fire was under reconstruction.

MiG Aircraft Corporation MiG has several production facilities and administrative buildings. The company manufactures a range of aviation products and provides support for aircraft of its own production.

During the Soviet era, the aircraft manufacturer created a series of combat aircraft, such as the Ukrainian MiG-29 fighters, Russian MiG-31 interceptor aircraft and their modifications that currently use Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles launched from the air.

In April 2021, stalkers entered the territory of this factory and filmed the state of the workshops. They sneaked through a hole in the fence and got unimpeded access to many of the factory buildings.

Bloggers have discovered remnants of production tools, equipment, MiG-29 fighter fuselages and several prototypes of Russian MiG-AT training aircraft.

The MiG factory is developing a new MiG-UTS training aircraft.

Tags: Military AviationMiGRussia

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Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, he has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Dayton Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. He uses Canon equipment during his photographic work in the world of aviation.

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[aryaxbradford]

[murdrballad]

alexandrina turcan & teo trandafir

[mihaelapblog]

Bună!

Am creat un grup pentru cei interesați de poeziile și arta mea. Dacă îți place să citești, să scrii poezii sau îi apreciezi pe cei ce o fac, ai venit în locul potrivit. Hai să ne cunoaștem și să împărtășim experiențe!

13.nov.2021

[likarotarublogger]

Christmas Fashion by E&R 2022 terza edizione nel borgo medievale della Sabina.

Il 27 dicembre 2022 si è svolto a San Polo di Tarano provincia Rieti la terza edizione Christmas Fashion di Elena Rodica Rotaru. San Polo è un borgo medievale piccolissimo che sorge su una collinetta allungata che di certo ne suggerì la costruzione fortificata. Il castello di Santo Polo, di cui oggi sono intuibili le forme originarie nelle strutture di case e costruzioni come la Torre Civica, compare per la prima volta nella documentazione farfense nel gennaio del 1102. Nel territorio di Santo Polo aveva consistenti interessi il monastero di S. Andrea in Flumine che vi possedeva diversi beni fondiari. Nel 1368 il castello, insieme ad altri, fu dato come feudo da Urbano V a Francesco e Buccio Orsini. Rimasto tra alterne vicissitudini, nel patrimonio degli Orsini, fu espropriato nel 1604 alla morte di Enrico Orsini, marchese di Stimigliano.

Christmas Fashion by E&R terza edizione è stato organizzato di Elena Rodica Rotaru e l’associazione Lika Eventi in collaborazione con Pandataria Film e Hair Beauty Salon di Marilena Bãcanu. L’evento è dedicato a tutti i bambini e alcuni amici che collaboro tutto l’anno a eventi di moda ,culturali e sociali organizzare di Elena.

Non manca mai Babbo Natale un momento speciale per tutti ma soprattutto per gli bambini .

Tutti gli ospiti sono stati accolti con grande affetto medievale.La prima tappa della visita in borgo è stata nella cantina del rum dove hanno assaggiato vari piatti tradizionali della Romania e dell'Italia cucinati da presidente della associazione Lika Eventi Elena, insieme con Constanta Ardeleanu e Gabriela Vulpe arrivate della Calabria (Rosarno) speciale per feste natalizie e capodanno.

Subito dopo pranzo tutti sono saliti alla biblioteca di Salvatore Braca Pandataria Film dove il conduttore, attore e cantante Jano Di Gennaro ha accolto gli ospiti con una bellissima canzone insieme a Babbo Natale che ha dato il via al Christmas Fashion by E&R party. Ma prima di tutto Babbo Natale insieme alla sua assistente Maria Popa ha fatto regali a tutti presenti ognuno di loro ha trovato una lettera divertente. Dopo alcuni festeggiamenti, è iniziata la prima sfilata di Elena Rodica Rotaru. I modelli presenti erano Gabriele Popa, Angela Popa, Gabriela Vulpe, Aurora Cigna ( fascia Pandataria Film) e Giulia Ruggeri (vincitrice del concorso nazionale Una ragazza, un ragazzo e una bambina per lo spettacolo di Massimo Meschino che era presente anche all'evento.

Divertimento e la sfilata ha continuato il momento più culturale è stato la presentazione di libro Chic -Il Mondo Della Moda -di Francesca Napolitano Edizione SG Book Publisher . In questo libro ci sono anche le tuo protagonista stilista internazionale Elena Rodica Rotaru e la sua modella Giulia Ruggeri che indossando un vestito di seta con motivi grechi per la realizzazione di un abito con una storia volta all’oriente .Questo abito è stato realizzato nel 2020 per l’evento Covi Free della Ventotene fashion week by E&R l’abito dei ricordi di una trascorsa pandemia mondiale .Giulia Style è dedicato alla mia modella Giulia Ruggeri .

Ma più emozionante della serata è stato il momento quando il giornalista di PaeseRoma dott. Michelangelo Letizia ha nominato e d’atto un attestato di Merito a Elena Rodica Rotaru.

Orgogliosi di aver consegnato a Elena Rodica Rotaru il riconoscimento di Feder Mestieri 2022. L'artista, costumista stilista, fashion blogger, creatrice e presidente di importanti eventi, è stata premiata durante l'evento Christmas Fashion By E&R da Michelangelo Letizia.

ELENA è nata in Romania, ma ormai da molti anni vive, lavora in Italia e ama stare in italia dove è molto impegnata in eventi internazionali tra Roma e Milano nel mondo della moda.La passione per la moda inizia molto presto. A circa 3 anni Elena già si divertiva a giocare con i ritagli di tessuti avanzati dalle creazioni della madre e del nonno. Quella stessa passione è ancora forte in lei ed è il motore di ogni attività e progetto che la vede protagonista.

Tutti i miei premi certificati o altri riconoscimenti che ricevo durante il mio viaggio su questa terra vorrei dedicarli a una persona speciale della mia vita a mia mamma . Vorrei ringraziare tutti coloro che hanno partecipato e collaborato con me.

Pandataria Film di Salvatore e Antonio Braca,hair beauty Salon di Marilena Bãcanu, Jano Di Gennaro ,fotografi Manolo Ruggeri e Mario Buonanno, Aura Ruggeri filmmeker, PaeseRoma e Feder Mestiere di Michelangelo Letizia ,Jano Di Gennaro ,Ardeleanu Constanta (mia mamma)

Massimo Meschino, Camelia Birlan assistente manager E&R Rotaru Privè Fashion , Gabriela Vulpe, Angela,Maria e Gabriele Popa, Aurora Cigna,Giulia Ruggeri,Carla Ruggieri (Sarteavventura) ,Iliana Constantinescu ,babbo natale FELICINGELI NELLO, dj Dinca Valeriu

Ciao tanti altri presenti nel mio piccolo borgo medievale.

Articolo di @likarotarublogger @elenarodicarotaru-blog

[theculturedmarxist]

I managed to open a post by the Substacker Big Serge from last August. I mistakenly assumed it was more recent because the high level take seemed current. I therefore read his comment that “I believe Russia has absolutely no interest in ending the war this year” as applying to 2023, not 2022 as written. I thought it was a bold and interesting call.

But even though Big Serge actually made no such forecast, upon reflection, this scenario is worth considering.

Mind you, this post is not intended to be a prediction but what consultants call a forcing device.

From the outset, your humble blogger maintained that Russia could win the war but lose the peace. That problem has become even more apparent as the war has progressed and more facts have come forward, such as:

The animosity of the West toward Russians The bad faith dealing of Western leaders, as confirmed by their duplicity in using the Minsk accords as a vehicle to better prepare for war with Russia. There’s an old saying among commercial lawyers that a contract is only as good as the parties that sign it. US and European officials have made clear they see no obligation to honor agreements with Russia. The use of Ukraine as a US/NATO proxy. Suspecting that is one thing, having it confirmed is another.

The prevalence of magical thinking among Western elites. For instance, the EU plans a tenth round of sanctions. Giving Ukraine longer-range missiles to shoot at Crimea will cause so much foment in Russia that Putin will have to sue for peace to prevent his ouster. And the never-ending projection, like the Russians suffering horrific casualties.

One concern that many Russia experts say influences its strategy is avoiding NATO escalation. Even though the alliance is revealing itself to be more resource constrained and on top of that, not well equipped for this war, that does not mean it could not work itself up to a much higher level of operation in say 24 months if it felt threatened. And the Balts and Poles keep the dial at 11, so there’s a lot of crazy angry background messaging.

And we have this overarching problem, the map that Big Serge presented:

I haven’t seen anyone come up with a viable plan for what to do about that big blue area of Western Ukraine.1 Medvedev’s map (which shows a rump Ukraine that amounts to Greater Kiev, with Poland, Romania, and Hungary gobbling up other bits) would be a great outcome for Russia. But I don’t see how that comes about, and Russia being seen as trying to engineer that would make that outcome even less likely.

In the meantime, as Alex Christaforu pointed out yesterday, just like the father figure in My Big Fat Greek Wedding, who used Windex as a remedy for all ills, so to is the Collective West’s answer to every Ukraine problem more weapons. But as the press is reporting today, in the runup to a monthly NATO “what do we do now” session today, the US and Germany are having a spat over tanks. Ukraine is begging for more and recent Russia MoD “clobber lists” confirm why. Russia is reporting very few tank kills, and those are considerably outnumbered by pickup trucks and passenger cars, the sort of thing you should not see used on a battlefield.

As Brian Berletic has explained long form over many videos, the armored vehicles that the US and France have offered to send are part of a tank entourage and not a substitute for a tank. The US Abrams is too heavy, too much of a fuel hog, requires way way too much maintenance and a ton of training. The Germany Leopard 2 can only be called less unsuitable. It’s too heavy, presupposed maintenance facilities nearby, and did not perform well in Syria against mere insurgents.

The Germans are sensibly resisting giving up a tank devised for national defense to be thrown away in Ukraine. Expect them to relent and send a token number. Which leads to another favorite issue of Berletic’s: the West sending a hodge podge of equipment will create a logistical, training and staffing nightmare for Ukraine and could even make matters worse.

By contrast, a fresh and long news conference by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gives an inkling of current official Russian thinking. Virtually at the start, Lavrov called out the conflict as a NATO war:

What is happening now in Ukraine is the result of many years of preparation by the United States and its satellites for the start of a global hybrid war against the Russian Federation. No one hides it. If you read unbiased Western figures, including political scientists, scientists, and politicians, you can see this for yourself. Just the other day there was an article by Professor of Columbia University J. Bremmer. He texted: “We are not in a state of cold war with Russia. We are in a “hot war” with Russia. NATO is not fighting it directly. We are fighting through Ukraine.” Quite a frank confession. This conclusion lies on the surface. It is strange that they are trying to refute it in some way. Recently, the President of Croatia Z.Milanovic said that this is a NATO war. Frankly, honestly. A few weeks ago, H. Kissinger (before his last article called for Ukraine’s admission to NATO) clearly wrote that what is happening in Ukraine is a clash, a competition between two nuclear powers for control over this territory. It’s pretty clear what we’re talking about.

Our Western partners are deceitful when they deny it and ” foam at the mouth “prove that they are not at war with Russia, but only help Ukraine cope with” aggression ” and restore its territorial integrity. The volume of support clearly indicates that the West has put a lot of money on its war against Russia. This is understandable..

Returning to the declaration of NATO and the European Union. Interesting document. The two structures have been declared the ” union of democracies against autocracies in the context of global competition.” A deliberately confrontational agenda has been proclaimed to the whole world. At the same time, Europe lost its independence. The Joint Declaration explicitly puts the Europeans in a subordinate position in relation to the North Atlantic Alliance. Contains their commitment to serve American interests in the geopolitical deterrence of Russia and China. The goal was announced (it was known to everyone, but now it is once again documented) – to achieve the global superiority of the alliance led by the Americans.

NATO is not limited to organizing the life of the European continent. Since the Madrid summit in June 2022, the global responsibility of the military bloc has been proclaimed, especially in relation to the Asia-Pacific region, which NATO calls the Indo-Pacific.

In response to the first question, which was about negotiations, security arrangements, and if the “power phase,” which I take to mean kinetic war, would end this year, Lavrov stayed close to the formula that the SMO goals would need to be achieved, and added:

In Ukraine, as in any other territory bordering the territory of the Russian Federation, there should be no military infrastructure that poses a direct threat to our country, discrimination, or persecution against our compatriots. They are citizens of the Ukrainian state by the will of fate, but they want to preserve their language, culture and traditions, and bring up their children in these traditions in full compliance with the Constitution of Ukraine, which guarantees the free use and protection of Russian and other languages of national minorities. The Russian language is specifically highlighted there. This Constitution remains in force.

That implies a big blue rump Ukraine would need to be a radically different beast, and that charitably assumes citizens will prefer to get back to a semblance of their old lives rather than invest in vendettas.2

Big Serge’s latest observations on Twitter:

Big Serge did point out that the NATO members with the biggest forces ex the US, and hence the most independence, Turkey and France, were holding back.

So where does this high-level ramble leave us? As Douglas Macgregor said, Russia had already burned through two Ukraine armed forces, the one it started out with and then the one NATO reconstituted. The West is putting together a third force, which Macgregor notes will be smaller, and he anticipates Russia will dispatch that one too.

If the West tries more stunts, as in non-strategic destruction, like shelling Crimea, expect an acceleration of Russian strategic responses, like taking out the electrical grid faster.

But how does Russia get a measure of security? Even attriting NATO militarily won’t achieve that, unless NATO does the most epically stupid thing it could, which is oust Turkey.

Here I think Big Serge was on to the end game, but it is not coming as fast as he anticipated:

Russia’s energy weapon remains the bomb in the heart of the EU. With all the “winter is coming” memes floating around, it can be easy to write this off as simply a figment of the internet. Far from it – small businesses around the EU are already closing in the face of crushing energy bills, energy intensive industrial sectors like smelting are shutting plants entirely. Europe is facing a perfect economic storm, as the Federal Reserve hikes rates, leading to a general tightening of financial conditions, energy prices explode into the stratosphere, and export markets dry up amid a global economic slowdown.

All of this is likely to tip over into a cataclysm over the winter. I would not be surprised to see a financial collapse and unemployment in the EU in excess of 30%. Given the fact that the EU is notoriously bad at solving problems of any kind, there’s a non-negligible chance more countries try to leave the EU.

The EU is getting through this winter due to luck in the form of warm weather, weak demand out of China, aggressive stockpiling of Russian gas, and cutting into muscle, in the form of capacity reductions at energy intensive European, particularly German, companies. And EU leader, largely correctly, think the green energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act are predatory as far as European businesses are concerned. EU leaders at Davos discussed an US-European trade war as a real risk.

The EU is reported to be considering sanctioning Russian nuclear fuel, which would result in yet more blowback since there’s no ready replacement.

Note that Lavrov refused to address the question of whether the fighting might end this year. The big reason is no one knows and Russia seems to be revising its plans in light of events. But the difficulty of ending a conflict with a completely feckless opponent, one that can’t be trusted to respect any treaty, suggests that Russia needs to attrit the West top to bottom, economically as well as militarily. A continued grind would be a way to get there.

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1 Your truly has suggested fully de-electrifying it, since Russia is the only place that can provide the needed parts (putting in a new Western-standards systems is an impossible task). John Helmer has pumped for a massive DMZ, but that would require agreement from an agreement-incapable counterparty.

2 Colonel Macgregor has argued that Ukraine is not geographically suited to an insurgent war, but you could see IRA-type campaigns in cities in the newly “liberated “oblasts.