#avoiding that 25% tariff

[hetalias-resumption]

There just chill countries (usually)

[affairsmastery]

At the World Economic Forum, President Donald Trump stated that the US doesn't need Canadian energy, vehicles, or lumber, reiterating his threat of imposing tariffs on Canadian imports—potentially up to 25% by February 1.

Trump suggested Canada could avoid tariffs by "becoming a state," sparking gasps in the Davos audience. The threat has caused unease in Canada, which exports 75% of its goods to the US. Canadian leaders, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, have vowed a "dollar-for-dollar" countermeasure if tariffs are enacted, while pitching Canada as a secure and reliable trading partner.

[allthecanadianpolitics]

A majority of Canadians would be hesitant to buy U.S. goods in response to the proposed American tariff on products from Canada, according to a new survey. The findings of a recently released Nanos Research survey suggest a tariff on Canadian exports into the U.S. would, for two-thirds of Canadians, negatively impact the likelihood they'd purchase U.S.-made goods.

On Nov. 25, U.S. president-elect Donald Trump said he would impose a 25 per cent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico until the two countries clamped down on drugs, particularly fentanyl, and migrants crossing the border.

Continue reading

Tagging: @newsfromstolenland

[newsfromstolenland]

Faced with Donald Trump's tariff threats against Canada, the latter must go “eye for eye, tooth for tooth,” play to its strengths and not put itself in a position of weakness vis-à-vis him, by avoiding responding to every one of his “outlandish” assertions.

At her traditional news conference at the start of the year, FTQ (Fédération des travailleurs et travailleuses du Québec) president Magali Picard spoke of the fears from her major affiliated unions and their members in the face of the 25 per cent tariff threats issued by the U.S. president-elect.

The United Steelworkers, Unifor and the Teamsters, all major affiliates of the QFL, would be particularly hard hit by these potential U.S. tariffs, since they have a strong presence in mining, metallurgy, timber, forestry and transport.

[...]

The FTQ's position is important because its major affiliates have links with American unions, which could become either allies for jobs or obstacles in this debate.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Jan. 14, 2025.

Full article / Article en français

Tagging: @allthecanadianpolitics

this is only partially related (hence the small text), but I do think it's wild how many times I've heard people from québec use the phrase "eye for an eye"/"œil pour œil" considering that whenever they hear it in the context of the Qur'an, they can't shut up about how it makes Islam regressive

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Steven Beschloss at America, America:

Anyone who’s spent time with an abusive narcissist understands the dilemma: If you just go along to get along, you’ll never escape their grip. And if you confront them, they will do anything they can to make your life a living hell—until you get away or they leave forever.

America is trapped right now in this ugly nexus, thanks to millions of Americans who identified with Donald Trump’s anger and hatreds or didn’t comprehend the dangerous choice they were making. But we have a chance to overcome this dark chapter with a clear, fearless opposition. That will require elected officials refusing to work with him and abandoning the idea that collaboration is the only way they can mitigate the damage he will cause or accomplish something themselves. The more they give him, the more he will take. The more they communicate that they accept his dominance and respect his power, the more he will exploit their vulnerability, particularly because he sadistically relishes harming and demeaning others. We saw that dynamic play out yesterday when the president of Colombia initially rejected two military planes carrying deported migrants, demanding that the U.S. create a protocol that treats these people with dignity before they would be repatriated. It was a moment when a significant trading partner and ally reminded all of us what we are fighting for.

“A migrant is not a criminal and must be treated with the dignity that a human being deserves,” Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro said. “That is why I returned the U.S. military planes that were carrying Colombian migrants.” Petro went on to say that his country would receive these citizens only if they are transported “in civilian planes, without being treated like criminals.” The bellicose, over-the-top response from Trump? He would immediately put a 25 percent tariff on Colombia and issue a travel ban revoking the visas of Colombian government officials as well as their allies. “These measures are just the beginning,” Trump threatened in a Truth Social post.

Could Trump have picked up a telephone and had a simple conversation? Of course, he could have and should have. It’s not like there wasn’t an easy solution. Colombia received 475 flights with migrants deported from the U.S. between 2020 and 2024, according to the Associated Press, including 124 in 2024. But the abusive Trump preferred to bully this strategically important ally, which buys billions of dollars in U.S. exports, including corn which is important to U.S. farming states. Reluctant to escalate the unnecessary dispute, Petro’s government subsequently announced that the country would make available their own presidential planes to pick up the migrants and provide them “dignified conditions.” Classic Trump case: Escalate a minor dispute that could have been resolved calmly and simply. Exploit the “crisis” he created to pound his chest and pretend that it demonstrates how powerful he is. “I have directed my Administration to take…urgent and decisive retaliatory measures,” Trump posted.

This extreme reaction concerned less than 200 migrants, but late last night Petro reversed course to avoid a trade war by allowing even military aircraft. And the false Trump response, delivered by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt: “Today’s events make clear to the world that America is respected again.” Donald Trump doesn’t care about or respect laws. He doesn’t care about or believe in American democratic values and principles like equality, diversity and justice. He rejects free speech and despises the peaceful assembly of those who disagree with him. He is bored by the details of policy and governance, belittles the value of expertise, only wants attention and spectacle, and is determined to surround himself with sycophants who will bow down to him. He doesn’t care about or comprehend the pain he causes other human beings. He is more than ready to use political violence to get what he wants.

He will never make an effort to unify the nation. He will never rely on inspiration, only stoke fear, seek to intimidate and threaten violence. He will never work to gain the trust of the majority. Is this an American president? Are we obliged—are elected Democrats obliged—to treat such a man with respect? This is the person who pardoned over 1,500 convicted felons who attacked the U.S. Capitol; just this weekend he invited the remorseless Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes—freshly released from prison and his 18-year sentence for seditious conspiracy—to appear behind him in a Nevada rally.

Should Democrats find ways to work with Trump or oppose him at every turn? Is there any reason to believe he will do anything to make lives better rather than commit acts to glorify himself and enrich himself and his billionaire cronies by stealing from the wealth created by hard-working Americans? As I see it, going along with even some of Trump’s policies in order to minimize the damage represents collaborating with a man bent on the destruction of American democracy and aiding his effort. I understand the decision of 13 Senate Democrats (many from border states) to sign a letter to Majority Leader John Thune, offering to work with him “in good faith” to craft border security and immigration legislation. But do they really think Trump will ever work with them in good faith, especially as he’s focused on mass deportation, building a wall (again) and demonizing refugees and Democrats?

As the transgressions and degradations and the acts of corruption and criminality mount—and, yes, they already have been at an alarming pace meant to shock the unsuspecting—we should demand that Democratic leaders and anyone who is committed to overcoming this dark chapter in our history refuse to work with this regime. That will become even more important as he is surrounded by dangerously reckless cabinet secretaries and others in leadership positions motivated to carry out his agenda, satisfy his hunger for vengeance and dismantle the very government programs and agencies they have sworn to serve. Soon the deeply unfit Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will likely be joined by the retribution-minded Kash Patel at the FBI, the Putin-supporting Tulsi Gabbard as the Director of National Intelligence and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. “running” Health and Human Services.

[...] We have to prove that we will not be drowned, not just to be resilient in the face of hostile forces, but capable of confronting and overcoming them.

In the first week of 47’s reign of terror, he has rapidly slid the country into the toilet.

[tomorrowusa]

In Ontario, the premier (equivalent of a governor in the US) says he may cut off electricity to the US if Trump's 25% tariffs on Canadian exports go into effect.

Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tax on all products entering the U.S. from Canada and Mexico unless they stem the flow of migrants and drugs. “We're going to put our list together, and I'm sure the other provinces will as well. But we will go to the full extent, depending on how far this goes. We will go to the extent of cutting off their energy,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said after meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other provincial premiers. Ford said he didn't want this to happen but wasn't optimistic Canada could avoid tariffs. “This fight is 100% coming on Jan. 20 or Jan. 21,” he said, referencing to the date of Trump’s inauguration. “We will use every tool in our tool box to fight back. We can’t sit back and roll over. We just won’t as a country. And isn’t this a shame, our closest friends and allies."

Although Ontario itself has negligible oil production, that's not true in the west of Canada.

About 60% of U.S. crude oil imports are from Canada, and 85% of U.S. electricity imports as well. It wasn't immediately clear if Ford was talking about all Canadian provinces cutting off energy exports to the U.S. or just his province. But a spokeswoman for Ford, Grace Lee, said it was raised in the call between Trudeau and the provincial premiers. “Premier Ford can only speak on behalf of Ontario, but its an area of provincial jurisdiction that we would certainly look at,” Lee said in an email. Lee noted Ontario powered 1.5 million homes in the U.S. in 2023 and is a major exporter of electricity to Michigan, Minnesota and New York.

Despite Trump's promise to "drill! drill! drill!", an abrupt cutoff of Canadian imports would create disruptions in the US.

Canada has other exports which the US needs.

Canada is also the largest foreign supplier of steel, aluminum and uranium to the U.S. and has 34 critical minerals and metals that the Pentagon is eager for and investing for national security. “Canada, of course, will respond to unjustified tariffs,” Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said after the meeting.

Canada needs to kick Trump's ample butt right from the start if it doesn't want to be threatened by him constantly.

[f1ghtsoftly]

All The Women’s News You Missed Last Week

11/25/24-12/2/24

Feminist Activists fend off attacks from the U.S. far right in El Salvador, Sex Workers in Belgium get new labor rights, Latin American heads of state take on Trump and Musk and searching begins to find Indigenous femicide victims in Canada.

Women’s Rights: 

Belgium's sex workers get maternity leave and pensions under world-first law 

Judge rejects effort to stop transgender college volleyball player competing 

Beatriz v El Salvador: the abortion case that could set a precedent across Latin America

Women in the News: 

Florida woman sentenced to life for zipping boyfriend into suitcase, suffocating him

Woman driving drunk who killed bride still in her wedding dress sentenced to 25 years in prison

Mexican president says she is confident that a tariff war with the US can be averted

Brazil first lady uses expletive against Elon Musk at G20 event

Venomous snake slithers up driver's leg on Australia motorway 

Chinese companies apologise for 'shrunken' sanitary pads 

Bushra Bibi led a protest to free Imran Khan - what happened next is a mystery 

Vietnamese tycoon in race to raise $9bn to avoid execution 

Is Namibia going to elect its first female leader? 

She fled Israeli bombing four times. It still found her 

Male Violence: 

Landfill search begins in Canada for remains of serial killer's victims 

WATCH: 'It's important that we come together and stand for Nikita' 

'People want nothing to do with him': How Ireland turned away from Conor McGregor 

Harvey Weinstein hospitalized after ‘alarming blood test,’ attorney says

Rape helpline calls almost doubled after McGregor case

Femicide victim's family awaits killer's sentence, and change in Italy 

Childcare worker who abused more than 60 girls jailed for life

Australian suspect in 1977 murders extradited from Italy 

An ex-detective accused of abusing women died in an apparent suicide as his trial was starting

An Australia police officer who shocked a 95-year-old woman with a Taser is guilty of manslaughter

Man jailed for murdering girlfriend he set on fire 

Arts and Culture: 

K-Pop group NewJeans split from agency in mistreatment row 

Gregg Wallace apologises for 'middle-class women' comment 

Sean 'Diddy' Combs denied bail for third time in sex-trafficking case 

Movie Review: Angelina Jolie is graceful and sharp as opera star Maria Callas in ‘Maria’

Review: Though earnest and visually dazzling, ‘Moana 2' is more dull than so shiny

Movie Review: ‘Wicked’ fans, rejoicify! Erivo, Grande shine in lavish adaptation of Broadway classic

Movie Review: A luminous slice of Mumbai life in ‘All We Imagine as Light’

[hdksjsb]

It is actually terrifying to be in a country with 25% tariffs looming over it. Americans won’t stop screaming about how Trump is affecting them, but I do not think they understand how he’s going to destroy his neighbours’ economies just for kicks. Currencies are going to tank, inflation will skyrocket and job loss will be, at least, in the tens of thousands.

Some of the terms floated to avoid these tariffs were to abandon our own industries and support American, while they abandon ours. Everyone, all our countries, will have reorganize their economies’ from the ground up regardless of the outcome.

[mariacallous]

President-elect Trump has suggested that he will impose a wide-range of tariffs when he takes office, including a blanket tariff of 10–20% on all imported goods, an additional tariff between 60 and 100% on Chinese goods, a 100% tariff on countries within the BRICS alliance if they attempt to undermine the U.S. dollar’s status as a global reserve currency, and a 25% tariff on all products imported from Mexico and Canada. Notably, he wants to impose at least some of these tariffs on day one. Can he impose tariffs that quickly? Potentially, yes.

The executive branch has an unusually broad menu of options when it comes to tariffs—the president is able to dictate tariff rates, which countries and goods they apply to, and when and how to impose them without Congressional approval and sometimes without public input or judicial review. We can’t think of another economic policy issue where the executive has so much power and escapes the checks and balances that apply elsewhere to executive branch actions. This is a choice made by the U.S. Congress. 

To be clear, we—like most economists—have a dim view of unilateral tariffs. Tariffs increase the cost of consumption for domestic consumers, and they inefficiently shift economic activity towards sectors where production is more expensive. Moreover, tariffs often provoke retaliation from our trading partners and escalate into trade wars. Putting the economic issues aside, the proposed tariffs by the president-elect raise procedural and institutional questions about whether and how the executive branch should have the authority to unilaterally impose tariffs, and how quickly it can act. 

The power to impose taxes, including tariffs, unequivocally resides with Congress according to the U.S. Constitution. This authority is essential for funding government operations, such as national defense, public services, and infrastructure. The development of tax legislation—jointly managed by the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance Committees—is a process that ideally includes careful study and public debate and can take months or even years. This means that the legislative process cannot realistically impose new taxes on day one of a new administration.

Tariffs are unusual in that they are a tax that is not implemented by congressional legislation, and thus circumvent a potentially lengthy and deliberative journey through the House and Senate. Instead, tariffs are imposed by executive branch regulation—but unlike most federal regulations, tariffs avoid almost all the legislated guardrails, administrative procedures, and judicial reviews that apply to other executive regulations. This means implementing new tariffs can proceed much more quickly than other significant regulatory actions implemented by the executive branch. How fast depends on which authority Trump chooses to invoke. 

The executive branch has the authority to impose tariffs through two different processes. First, a series of Trade Acts—enacted between the 1930s and 1970s—empower the executive branch to proclaim tariff rates to protect American workers and consumers from unfair trade practices. This is the authority that empowered President Trump to impose limited tariffs on products like solar panels and washing machines during his first administration. To invoke this authority, an investigation is initiated by either the Department of Commerce or the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to determine whether tariffs are necessary to remedy unfair trade practices. These investigations take some minimal time—including a 30-60 day notice-and-comment period that allows the public an opportunity to raise concerns—meaning that these authorities cannot realistically be used to impose new tariffs on trading partners on day one.

Instead, if President Trump wishes to impose tariffs more quickly, he will likely need to invoke the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. Under the IEEA, Congress grants authority to the executive branch to address “unusual and extraordinary” peacetime threats to national security, foreign policy, or the economy. In May, 2019, President Trump threatened to use the IEEPA to implement  escalating tariffs on Mexican imports in May 2019. He withdrew this threat after Mexico committed to specific measures aimed at curbing immigration. 

Unlike tariffs enacted under the various trade acts, those imposed under the IEEPA bypass departmental reports, reviews, and public notice-and-comment periods. This streamlines implementation but bypasses essentially all regulatory checks and balances. The IEEPA’s speed makes it a likely tool for imposing new tariffs on day one. However, this path also raises legal questions, as seen in 2019, when skepticism emerged over its appropriateness for tariffs on Mexican imports. These criticisms are likely to resurface if the IEEPA is again invoked to justify now-broader tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports. 

To restore the balance of power, Congress could consider reforms to restore oversight and accountability in trade policy. In a new research brief, we trace the evolution of executive authority in determining tariff rates, highlighting how this authority bypasses the rigorous process that is already in place to provide a check on executive authority to impose other regulations, and we outline what options are on the table to restore oversight. While several bipartisan legislative efforts to address this imbalance have surfaced, they have gained little traction. Without meaningful reform, unchecked tariff authority has the potential to destabilize economic and diplomatic relationships. As the threat of sweeping, unilateral tariffs looms, the need for a more balanced and accountable system has never been more urgent.

[istrumpstillpresident]

yes

(1/26/25)

[girlactionfigure]

🟤 Thursday - ISRAEL REALTIME - Connecting to Israel in Realtime

▪️WHY REDUCED ATTACKS IN THE NORTH?  Hezbollah decides to be quiet on their holy days - it is the Shia Islam holiday of Ashura. The Israeli side is cooperating.

▪️POLITICS.. Shas party to PM: The Shas faction urges you not to fear the voices in the coalition who oppose the deal and strengthens you to continue to act responsibly for the mitzvah of prisoner redemption.

▪️WAR POLITICS.. the law extending reserve service - to meet IDF war needs - passed the Knesset.  It was noted that opposition National Unity members voted for it as well, but opposition leader Yesh Atid members avoided the vote.

▪️U.S. DRAMA.. (1) President Biden diagnosed with Corona.  We wish him a speedy recovery.  (2) The official announcement of Biden as a presidential candidate has been postponed.

▪️ELECTRICITY REFORM.. on July 25, the electricity reform will be launched. According to the reform, every consumer in Israel will be able to choose from which supplier he purchases electricity and enjoy a discount of 5%-20% of the electricity tariff. The move is expected to save each household hundreds and even thousands of shekels per year depending on the offers.

▪️RUSSIA FOREIGN MINISTERS SAYS.. "Israel is working to escalate the situation with Hezbollah in order to involve Washington in an all-out war with Iran."

▪️GAZA AID COMPLAINTS.. after aid landed on his tent, a Gazan complains: ‘We don't want any more help! The food is spoiled and the aid that drops on the tents is killing us.’

▪️AID PIER.. The US Secretary of Defense instructed the US military to end the "floating naval dock mission in Gaza”.

▪️DRUZE LEADER IN SYRIA KILLED, ISLAMIC JIHAD THREATENS ISRAELI DRUZE.. Syrian Druze commander called for external help to arm up against Hezbollah, he was killed yesterday by Iranian Shia Militias in the area.  Islamic Jihad threatened the Druze, accusing them of abusing Palestinian prisoners, and threaten revenge.

▪️HOUTHIS OFFER A DEAL.. Muhammad Ali Al-Houthi (a senior member of the Houthi leadership in Yemen) offers a deal for Israel:  "If you allow the introduction of aid to the Gaza Strip and first and foremost to the north of the Strip, we will allow you, to the same extent, to bring goods into the Port of Eilat... the ball is in your court."

♦️TARGETED ELIMINATION - HEZBOLLAH.. A targeted assassination in the Beka’a, a senior member of the Islamic Jama'ah, Ahmad Jabra, was eliminated.

♦️TARGETED ELIMINATION - ISLAMIC JIHAD.. The commander of the Islamic Jihad’s naval forces in the Gaza City region, Anas Murad, was eliminated in a drone strike.

♦️TARGETED ELIMINATION - ISLAMIC JIHAD.. The IDF says it eliminated Ahmed al-Masri, an Islamic Jihad member who participated in the October 7 onslaught and ongoing rocket fire.

♦️US/UK ATTACKED YEMEN.. attack on the Hodeidah airport.

♦️FEAR.. Gaza media influencer Abu Khader: "The occupation army (that’s what they call the IDF - without it occupying anything) is threatening Deir al-Balah... There are 3 battalions of Hamas in Deir al-Balah.  They say they want to bring in the 98th Division...the one that destroyed Khan Yunis.... Mom mom mom.  We are not holding out... every day we lose dear ones. Then some leader comes and says "the leadership is in good shape".. The people are victims... I swear... We are tired... we can't last.”

⭕ ATTACK ON AID CONVEY BEING COVERED BY IDF.. As a result of the RPG fire, a soldier with the Givati Brigade was moderately wounded.  Aid route was shut down following attack for some hours.

⭕ 3 rounds HAMAS ROCKETS at Nir Am Shooting Range - short range near-Gaza attack.  Overnight there was also an attack at Re’im.

[allthecanadianpolitics]

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said Wednesday he still hopes Canada can avoid United States tariffs, but the country will have to respond strongly if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on a threat to slap a 25 per cent charge on Canadian goods. “If tariffs get applied, Canada’s response has to be noticed. We can’t be a punching bag,” Kinew told reporters. “And we have to get our elbows up and let other folks know that we’re in the ring there too.”

Continue reading

Tagging: @newsfromstolenland

[uboat53]

Well, at least some of it is probably going to happen, so let's talk tariffs. LONG RANT (TM) time?

CHINA

The elephant in the room and our largest trading partner. Trump has threatened (and is still threatening) to levy a 60% tariff on all goods imported from China. Not only is China our largest trading partner by a little bit, it's our largest source of imports by a lot (something like more than 1/8 of all of our imports come from China), so this is big. As best I can calculate, it's about 7% of everything we buy in the US each year (though that also includes services, so it's a much higher proportion of manufactured goods).

So 60% of the 2021 estimate (I'm going off 2021 numbers because those are what's available, it takes a while for each year's numbers to come out and be finalized/solid) of 655 billion in imports would be 393 billion dollars. Divide that among the estimated 133.6 million consumer units in the United States (basically households) and that gives you an average increase of $2,940 in costs assuming that all of those costs are passed on to the end consumer. And that's just from one of the tariffs!

BIG FOUR

The next four largest trading partners of the US are the EU, Mexico, Canada, and ASEAN, from which we import a bit over $1.4 trillion worth of goods. Together with China, these five trading partners make up more than 2/3 of all US trade and imports specifically. At various points in the last few weeks, Trump has threatened to put 25% tariffs or others on goods coming from these countries, but I'm going to go with his blanket 10% tariff promise because he's waffled on the others at various points; so keep in mind that this is the best-case estimate, it can easily be worse.

10% of $1.4 trillion is $140 billion which, divided among the consumer units in the US is $1,050.

THE REST

Taking away those imports, we're left with $977.3 billion from the entire rest of the world. As far as I can tell, this would fall under Trump's blanket 10% tariff, so that would add $97.73 billion or another $730 to our total of tariffs. Adding all of those together, that's $4,720 per "household" that would need to be absorbed by US consumers.

Of course, some of that would likely be evened out by a shift of production away from China and toward countries subject to the lower tariff and some of that would be evened out by consumers choosing to purchase cheaper goods, but there's only so much of that that can be done. Taiwan and South Korea, for example, produce over 80% of the world's semiconductors; if you need something electronic you're not going to have much choice but to pay the extra. So the total is likely to be less than my estimated $4,720, but there's only so low it can go. Economists have estimated between $1,350 and $3,900 a year in increased costs and I'd say that the upper range of that is probably most likely.

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

And look, if it was only imports getting more expensive, that'd be one thing, but we also have to look at exports. Currently the US exports an estimated $1.8 trillion in goods to the rest of the world every year. It's extremely likely that other countries targeted by US sanctions would impose sanctions of their own on US products, making them less competitive abroad. A loss of even 1% of foreign trade would mean a hit of $18 billion per year to the US economy on top of the increased costs.

At this point it's probably useful to look at the case of Harley Davidson from Trump's first term. The EU imposed tariffs on the company in 2018 in response to tariffs that the Trump administration had placed on European goods. Europe was the second-largest market for Harley after the United States and the increase in tariffs from 6% to 31% made a pretty big impact on their bottom line. In response, they shifted production over to Europe in order to avoid the tariff.

That wasn't the end of it, though, because Trump immediately blasted the company for moving jobs offshore. Harley Davidson saw a significant and sustained decline in US sales through the rest of Trump's first term in office. In other words, the trade war not only led to an American company having trouble selling its products abroad, but their response to it entangled them in US politics which led to a decline in US sales as well. By 2020, Harley Davidson employed over 13% fewer people than they had in 2018 when the tariff came into effect.

Other countries targeted by our tariffs haven't responded with blanket tariffs in the past, they've responded with strategic tariffs aimed at high profile industries and calculated to cause maximum damage to US workers in key regions. It's not an accident that Harley Davidson, whose US production facilities are in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and which is widely regarded as an American icon, was targeted in 2018.

In other words, not only will American consumers pay more for all manner of goods, American producers will find it harder to sell their products abroad and that difficulty will increase the more they are a recognizable American brand or with the proportion of swing-state workers they employ. Even worse, any company that tries to adjust their business to adjust to the trade-war runs the risk of finding themselves in political crosshairs that will hurt their sales in the US as well.

Ultimately, this will likely lead to job losses in addition to the increases of costs.

CONCLUSION

The average American will pay significantly more for the goods they consume if Trump follows through on even some of his promises for tariffs. Even worse, the resulting trade war is likely to cost significant numbers of American jobs and Trump's likely response to any company that tries to adjust for the new reality is likely to cause even more lost business and jobs.

Of course, we'll still have to see how much, if any, of this Trump actually follows through on. He has a history of talking tough and then backing off when it becomes obvious he'd lose, and this about as bad as it'll get. Still, it's the only actual economic plan he's proposed, so I'd be curious to see if he even has anything else.

Even without the tariffs actually being in place, though, the consequences have started. Businesses are acting like the tariffs are coming because they'd be stupid not to, and that has already started changing prices across multiple industries. Buckle up, the next year or so is going to be crazy one way or another.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Madeline Halpert and Jessica Murphy at BBC News:

President Donald Trump has agreed to hold off imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days, pulling the North American neighbours back from the brink of a potentially damaging trade war. After last-minute calls with Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau agreed to reinforce his country's border with the US to clamp down on migration and the flow of the deadly drug fentanyl. Earlier, Trump made a deal with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. She agreed to reinforce the northern border with troops. In return the US would limit the flow of guns into Mexico. But a US tariff of 10% on Chinese imports has come into effect, after a deadline of 00:01 EST (05:00 GMT) on Tuesday passed. Shortly after, Beijing announced it was imposing retaliatory tariffs on a raft of American products, including 15% on coal and liquefied natural gas and 10% on crude oil and agricultural machinery.

Trump earlier said he planned to speak on the phone to his Chinese counterpart soon. He described the 10% import taxes as the "opening salvo" and said they could become "very, very substantial" if no agreement is made. Monday's breakthrough with Canada and Mexico came as they prepared retaliatory tariffs on American goods. After two phone calls on Monday, Trump and Trudeau posted on social media that they had reached a temporary agreement on securing the border that would avoid tariffs for at least 30 days. Both leaders portrayed the plan as a win. "As president, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of ALL Americans, and I am doing just that. I am very pleased with this initial outcome," Trump wrote on his social media site Truth Social.

Donald Trump temporarily pauses tariffs on its neighbours Mexico and Canada for one month, but not for geopolitical foe China. Mexico and Canada called Trump’s bluff.

See Also:

Vox: Is Trump’s trade war with Mexico and Canada over?

Reuters: Trump pauses tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but not China

[darkmaga-returns]

Small medevac plane crashes in Philly. Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs On Canada & Mexico. Trump confirms ‘serious discussions’ with Moscow. Top Globalist Demands Digital IDs to ‘Flush Out’ the Populist Right

Lioness of Judah Ministry

Feb 01, 2025

Small rescue plane crashes in Philadelphia with child, 5 others on board

Jan 31 (Reuters) - A medevac plane crashed in Philadelphia on Friday with a child and five others on board, the air ambulance company that operated it said, adding that it had not confirmed any survivors.

Jet Rescue Air Ambulance said its aircraft crashed with four crew members, one pediatric medical patient and the patient's escort on board. "At this time we cannot confirm any survivors," the company said in a statement. President Donald Trump wrote on social media that it was "so sad to see the plane go down in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. More innocent souls lost. Our people are totally engaged. First Responders are already being given credit for doing a great job." The crash follows this week's collision of an American Airlines jet and a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter over Washington, D.C., which killed 67 in the deadliest airplane crash in the U.S. since 2009.

Trump Says DC Black Hawk "Was Flying Too High... By A Lot"

Controller left work early - two controllers juggled duties normally handled by four...

Update (0825ET): President Trump has chimed in, confirming the altitude of the Black Hawk was too high...While there are countless facts still left to be uncovered and scrutinized, there's an early indication that the worst US air disaster since 9/11 may have resulted from a flight-path deviation by the Army helicopter that collided with a passenger jet landing at Washington's Reagan National Airport. Remarkably, it appears an identical disaster may have been narrowly avoided just one day earlier, when an airline pilot chose to abort landing after deeming another helicopter was dangerously close. Control-tower staffing is also emerging as a major concern -- including a decision to allow one controller to leave work early.

Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs On Canada & Mexico, 10% On China

No clarification on exemptions...

Tomorrow, February 1, the Trump administration will slap 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on China, as announced during Friday's press briefing by White House spox Karoline Leavitt, who denied reports of a delay to March 1. There will be no delay, selective targeting, or slow roll-out of phased-in tariffs as speculated by Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. That said, there could be certain exemptions - such as for oil and gas, which Leavitt did not elaborate on.

Trump says there's nothing Canada can do to stop tariffs from taking effect

U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada could do to prevent a sweeping 25 per cent tariff from taking effect on Feb. 1. Trump claimed his threat to introduce a tariff on goods from Canada, Mexico and China was not a negotiating tactic but was necessary to boost the U.S. economy. Asked if there was a possible “concession” Canada could make, he said his administration is “not looking for a concession.” “We’ll just see what happens,” he said. Asked about Canadian energy imports, the president suggested he would reduce the tariff on Canadian crude imports to 10 per cent.

[penguicorns-are-cool]

The 25% tariffs imposed by Trump on all Canadian imports into the US - with a lower 10% levy on energy - are set to take effect on Tuesday.

While many economists project the tariffs will also drive up costs for Americans on everyday essentials, from gas to groceries, Canada is the more exposed trade partner. If they last for months, the country could tip into a painful economic recession.

Some Canadians have already heeded the calls for solidarity. On social media, guides have circulated on how to avoid American-made products. One local grocery store in Toronto even began labelling its Canadian yogurt for shoppers, according to an image posted by Toronto doctor Iris Gorfinkel on X.

Others have stated they will be cancelling travel plans to the US, or forgoing visiting there altogether.

This is in addition to a total of C$155bn ($105bn; £86bn) of American goods that Canada has said it will tariff in retaliation, including vegetables, clothing, sports equipment, perfume and other items. Goods originating from Republican-led states, like Florida orange juice, are specifically being targeted.

The US imports more of its oil from Canada than any other country, and Trudeau's government has signalled "all options remain on the table" for further retaliation.

"It's a shock," Michael Ignatieff, the former leader of Canada's Liberal Party, told the BBC.

"We're into a new world, in which the question on whether you can trust America becomes the fundamental question in foreign policy for every country."

Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa with a focus on national security, told the BBC that Trump's tariffs "undoubtedly represent an earthquake in Canada-US relations."

"This is extremely destabilising for Canada," Prof Juneau said. "As a country, we have massively benefited from our extremely close trade and security partnership with the US for decades."

But Trump has also spoken publicly about his frustration with the trade deficit between Canada and the US, and more broadly his view that tariffs could be a source of revenue for Washington's coffers.

On Sunday, he wrote on Truth Social that the US does not need Canadian products, and said the US pays "hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidize Canada."

"Without this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable country," Trump wrote, before repeating his view that Canada should instead become a US state.

He has warned that the White House will enact harsher penalties on Canada should it choose to retaliate. For now, Canada has chosen to try and inflict some targeted pain on its more powerful neighbour, even if the economic scales are tipped against it.

"We prefer to solve our disputes with diplomacy," Trudeau told his country on Saturday. "But we are ready to fight when necessary."

But trump is SOOOO good for the economy and foreign relations guys