#are polling MUCH closer in swing states

[tanadrin]

do polls of the whole country tell us anything? don't you need to look at swing states?

National polls aren't useless, because movement in polls tends to correlate. If a national poll moves a couple points in one direction or another, that will tend to correlate with some degree of movement in several states. As I understand it, though, certain subgroups of states (e.g., ones with similar demographics) have much closer correlations in how their polls move, so that a shift in the polls in one Sun Belt state should correspond to a similar shift in the polls in another. This means you can make predictions like "If Donald Trump wins Virginia, he's probably winning a crushing victory nationally," because his performance in Virginia should correlate to his performance in many other states.

Swing state polls are very valuable, but keeping those correlations in mind helps to understand whether a swing state poll is an outlier or not. If a poll shows a shift in a certain direction, but that's not correlated with similar movement in similar states, it's worth questioning of that poll is accurate. Ditto if the poll shows unusual breakdown of results in demographic subgroups: if Trump is winning (say) 30% of young black voters, given the way demographics and party alignment usually break down, he should be winning a massive margin with other groups.

One reason I am not so bearish on Biden is that my understanding is that a lot of polls have had these demographic anomalies, with Trump's lead coming largely from support among younger, politically disengaged voters of color, and Biden, apparently, doing well with demographics like older whites. It is not a coincidence, in this view, that Trump seems to be performing unusually well with demographics that are particularly hard to poll in the modern polling landscape--response rates to telephone polls are very low among millennials and gen Z--and while there are various ways you can try to compensate for non-response bias, those depend on your model of the electorate.

Now, I am not extremely confident about this, because I am the furthest thing in the world from a polling expert, but as I understand it, there are two possible situations here:

One: the polls are broadly correct, and Trump is ahead. The election in November, if current trends continue, will feature a historic realignment of voters along demographic lines like age and race of the likes not seen since the 1960s (called "depolarization" by some commentators), perhaps driven by the rise in far-right internet media and social media.

Two: the polls are broadly incorrect, and we should be more agnostic about the state of the race, or even assume Biden is a little ahead, because such a massive realignment is extremely unlikely to have occurred in only two years since the 2022 midterms (where no such realignment was in evidence, and Democrats broadly overperformed polls), and polling right now is plagued by historically low response rates in the same key demographics that give Trump his lead.

Some commentators, including commentators whose field is polling, seem to want to have it both ways: the demographic crosstabs are wrong, but the top-line polling numbers are right. I'm not sure how this can be true. On top of that, big political realignments usually take time (i.e., we should have at minimum seen some evidence of this coming in 2022), and are unlikely to occur in a race where both candidates have been president before.

So on balance I think the second scenario is more likely. Now, I am not a stats person, nor particularly knowledgeable about polls; all of this opinion is second-hand from other commentators. As such, I am not going to claim any kind if ironclad certainty about this, and you're perfectly entitled to rub it in my face if I turn out to be totally wrong. And if I do stumble across someone who does know the polls really well with an explanation of why I'm wrong (even just at the level of "you are factually wrong, here's why the crosstabs are actually perfectly normal") I may well revise my opinion.

[fluentmoviequoter]

Sunshine in the Darkness

Summary - Dalton finds shy!reader hiding in an empty room at the frat party, and his world brightens. 1.7k+ words

Warnings - large fluff, medium angst, Dalton complains a lot at first then gets flirty, incorrect description of how Dalton enters the Further, open ending

A/N - Here is the runner up from my poll! This is one of the first fic ideas I had while watching the movie so I had fun writing it. I edited and proofread but please let me know if I missed anything or what you think! Enjoy!! :)

Dalton meant it when he said he did not want to go to the frat party. Meant it when he told his dad. Chris. Himself. Yet here he is – declining diaper pudding and walking through the crowd in front of the door. Although Chris is in front of him and facing the other way, she feels Dalton’s eyes roll during Nick’s speech. As the chanting ends and the music resume, Dalton tries expressing his opinion again in hopes that Chris will allow him to leave.

“This party’s lame!” he yells over the noise.

“Agreed,” Chris seconds as she turns toward him.

Dalton’s hopes of leaving are crushed by Chris stating she wants to go through the stuff in the house, directing Dalton toward the stairs. He releases a sigh as she starts testing doorknobs.

“Check the one at the end,” Chris says as she starts down the hall. 

Dalton rolls his eyes for the approximate hundredth time as he drags his feet to the end of the hall.

“’The night Dalton Lambert had fun,’ she said. Yeah, having so much fun,” he complains as he goes.

He grabs a doorknob and twists it, preparing to tell Chris it’s locked before it swings open. Dalton looks over his shoulder to call Chris, but something diverts his attention – a sniffle? Taking a step inside, Dalton closes the door behind him and walks further into the seemingly empty bedroom. As he rounds the bed, he sees someone sitting against the wall with their knees pulled up to their chest.

“Oh, sorry. I was-“ Dalton trails off with his thumb pointing over his shoulder. “Are you ok?”

You look up and locks eyes with him. In incredibly stark contrast to every other moment of his life, Dalton Lambert has only one thing on his mind. You. Without knowing your name, who you are, or anything else about you, you managed to calm the storm in Dalton’s life.

“I’m ok,” you answer quietly, drawing his attention again. “Just trying to get away from all the people.”

Dalton nods as he watches you play with your fingers hooked under your bent knees. 

“Dolphin?” Someone yells from the hallway, causing you to flinch and bring your legs closer, ducking your head again.

“Give me a few minutes, Chris,” Dalton says through a crack in the door.

“Do you have a girl in there?” Chris asks with a huge smile. She tries to push the door open, saying, “Let me in, Dalton!”

“Chris,” Dalton interjects, gently pushing her back into the hallway. “Give me a few minutes. Guard the door if you want, but wait, alright?”

You don’t hear her say anything else, but the music is muffled again as the door is closed. Dalton enters your sight again, and you relax slightly. 

“May I?” Dalton asks, gesturing to the floor in front of you.

You nod, watching as he sits down. He’s within reach of you but not overbearingly close. Leaning against the bed, he stretches his legs out. 

“So,” he begins, “why come to a party if you don’t like the people?”

You shrug again. Dalton stares at you, smiling as you fail to hide your small smile before looking away again. He watches you for another moment, trying to decide if he should keep talking or leave you alone.

“I didn’t want to come,” you admit quietly. As Dalton's eyes connect with yours, you look at your knees and continue. “To the party, I mean. My roommate dragged me and then left with some guy so I’m alone now.”

“My roommate forced me to come too,” Dalton explains. “She’s the one who tried to force the door down a minute ago. Means well, I think, unlike yours.”

You nod, feeling shy again under his gaze.

“What’s your name?” Dalton tries.

You whisper your name, then ask, “Yours is Dalton?”

“How’d you know?”

“Your roommate said it in the hall.”

“Alright,” Dalton says as he stands. He reaches a hand down to you, smiling as you look between his face and hand. “You obviously don’t want to stay. I don’t either. Let’s go.”

You swallow and wipe your hand on your shirt before taking his hand. He immediately wraps his hand around yours and pulls you to your feet, causing you to fall against his chest. Dalton’s arm wraps around your shoulders, holding you close as you look up at him.

“You always this shy or is it the party?” he asks quietly.

“I think it’s you,” you admit breathily, maintaining eye contact.

Dalton’s eyes widen, as does his smile. “Not so shy now, are we?” he exclaims.

You try to pull away, but he wraps his other arm around you, forcing you to hide your face against his chest.

“I’m sorry. I’ll stop if you want,” Dalton says in your ear.

“It’s fine. You’re- you’re easier to talk to than most people.”

“Dalton, we need to go. Now!” A voice you recognize as Dalton’s roommate says as the door opens. “Hi! I’m Chris! Dalton, now!”

Dalton keeps his arm around your shoulders as you navigate the party and exit into the front yard. As you turn to walk down the street, Chris elbows Dalton.

“I’m going to my new dorm. You two have fun,” Chris says before walking in the opposite direction.

Dalton’s arm remains firmly around you as he begins walking.

“Why’d you stay?” you ask once the noise from the frat party is in the distance. “When you walked in the room and saw me you could’ve just left. Why’d you stay and talk to me?”

“Thought you could use a friend. Maybe I knew we both needed a friend.”

“Thank you.”

“Hey, let’s turn here,” he says when you approach a dark intersection. “Something happened when I was younger and now I don’t really like the dark. Sorry.”

“No problem,” you respond as you turn. “And don’t apologize; everyone is scared of something.”

Dalton invited you to hang out in his dorm room after class the next evening, then insisted you accept. He is drawing when you arrive, and you wave him off, encouraging him to finish. You watch his back, your interest growing by the second.

“What are you drawing?” you ask quietly.

“You.”

You laugh, thinking he’s joking before the power shuts off and all of his lamps and lights go off. You stand up and move to stand beside him.

“Not right now,” he mutters, sounding utterly broken.

Kneeling by his chair, you take his hand in yours. “The power will be back on soon. Everything is alright.”

“You need to leave,” he says.

You begin to question him when he raises his voice. “Go! Now!”

As you pull your hand from him, it’s like another switch is flipped. The room feels darker now as he lurches forward to grab your hand again.

“I’m sorry. I’m sorry. Please don’t leave me. I’m just scared, and I didn’t mean it. Please don’t leave me," Dalton begs, grasping your hand tightly.

He’s out of the chair now, kneeling in front of you. You move your free hand to the back of his head, and he leans against you, pressing his face into your stomach. After a few minutes, bordering on eternity, you hear a small crackling as the power returns. Dalton looks up at you with teary eyes.

“How’d you do that?” he asks.

You look at him, drawn back into yourself because he yelled at you to leave. He realizes what he did and stands quickly, one hand raising to your cheek as the other holds steady on your hand.

“I didn’t mean any of that. I yelled at you because I thought you were in danger. Please don't stop talking to me. I need you,” Dalton admits to you and himself.

“How did I do what?” you ask, voice barely audible even though Dalton is inches from you.

“You kept me here.”

You swallow and look up at him, eyes following a tear as it travels down his face.

“Danger from what?”

“Me. I can astral project and the last few times the lights have gone out like that it’s been violent. Even in this realm. But you kept me here.”

You hug him, unsure how to respond to all the information he just told you. His arms wrap around you, holding you as tightly as he can.

“There's one other reason I stayed last night,” he whispers in your ear. “You’re beautiful, you're bright. Once I saw you, you were the only thing I could think about. So, I couldn’t leave. Not when you lit up what has been a very dark world.”

You smile into his shoulder before pulling back to look at him. “You’re scared of the dark and you just compared me to light. That’s kinda romantic, Dalton.”

His gaze drops to your lips before he states, “I can be much more romantic, Sunshine.”

You feel embarrassment creeping up in the form of a smile and hide your face in his chest again.

“You didn’t say anything about everything else I said,” he points out.

“I believe you. If that’s what you want to know.”

“What do you want to do? Since I fought so hard to get you to come over and we can finally enjoy some time that’s just us.”

You shake your head, burrowing further into his chest, unable to explain that being with him is enough.

“She’s back,” Dalton hums, more to himself than you.

He removes a hand from your back and twists to do something. Before you can look up to see what he's doing, he falls backward onto his bed with you in his arms.

“I’m glad I went to that party,” Dalton says as he rubs your back.

“Me too,” you admit quietly, looking at the art decorating the wall behind you.

“Want to go to another one?”

You shake your head and find it in yourself to look up at him again. “What are you going to do? About the projection and the door in the picture?”

He looks at the picture of the door, then back at you. “Figure out how to close it. Forever.”

“You said ‘us’ earlier. What does that mean?”

“I’ll tell you tomorrow.”

“Why?”

“You seem too comfortable to get shy about the answer right now. So, tomorrow, Sunshine.”

“Tomorrow,” you repeat.

Later that night, Dalton thinks about you as he settles into a dreamless sleep or perhaps a false sense of security. Either way, all he can think of now is you and tomorrow.

[just-ray]

Weekly Report 28/08/2024

On a 69

From here on, since I am primarily a neutral political news blog (I try to be neutral in news...that is....not in beliefs.), I will be doing weekly oppinion based reports on current events, including Irish and US politics.

☆•☆•☆•☆•☆•☆•☆•☆•☆•☆

Irish politics has been as mundane as it has been in the past few months, with the steady work on the annual budget being continued by Coaltition parties Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and the Green Party, with effort from Jack Chambers, the Fianna Fáil Minister for Finance, and Fine Gaels Minister for Public Expendature and Reform, Paschal Donohoe.

However, those of us who follow irish politics anxiously await the return of Leaders Questions to the Oireachtas Channel (or Oireachtas TV).

---

With less than 69 days to go until the United States presidential elections, the latest polls show the Harris Walz duo leading the race to the Oval Office 47.0% to trumps close second of 43.7%.

I interviewed an Irish Republican/Trump supporter and an Irish Democrat/Harris supporter and asked for their views on the current trends being faced in American politics.

Let's find out what they had to say.

Note: I have altered the original response, only with punctuation such as ".", "," ect. I have not changed the order of words or sentences, or altered the meaning of any of the given text.

Question: "How do you feel about the current polls, suggesting that Harris and Walz may be taking the Oval Office next November, and do you think the current trend will remain the same as we draw closer to the elections?"

Republican: "I, personally, do believe that trump will end up succeededing in the election, as a common trend amongst the majority of people does come from an economic standpoint, whilst I also do understand people wanting good social policies I don't particularly think that is a main issue when some people can no longer feed and house themselves. I do personally believe the vote will be very close, though."

Democrat:

"[As] much as I would love Harris to win, the amount of support trump has been receiving for years now is hard to ignore. I believe that while Harris has proven to be popular and very supported, trump has just got an enormous amount of americans on his side. The twisted view of america being “broken” or something of the sort is a very common trend amongst more conservative groups of people. and they believe trump can fix it.

I don’t believe this “make america great again” thing is a trend, more of a twisted delusion, honestly. I do think people, including Harris and Walz supporters, tend to focus too much on one thing. More focus and attention need to be put into the ridiculous amount of homelessness in America. my hope would be that the future president would really try to actually deal with this problem rather than contribute to it."

---

However, time is running out, and with just under 70 days until the ballots open, if things continue as they have been, presidential candidate Donald Trump may come out as "the bottom from 69".

Will Donald and his VP candidate JD Vance.....erm....Trump? Or will Kamala Harris and her VP candidate Tim get the chance to Walz into the Oval Office next November?

Both the answer to that question, and the future of the America can be found in the swing states.

---

My name is Ray, I have an early university entry certificate in International Relations, and this has been the weekly report.

[redistrictgirl]

As of August 18th, 2024, the race for the presidency is a dead heat.

This week was probably the first truly quiet one of the cycle (at least, with our current matchup). It's not clear that the race has moved much towards either candidate as a whole, with some rating changes favoring Vice President Harris and others favoring former President Trump. Ms. Harris did technically gain in the national polling average, which looks at the past 28 days, but her weekly split declined for the second consecutive week, so the future trajectory of the race is also far from certain.

First, Mr. Trump gained slightly in Michigan and lost ground in Wisconsin. This brings the three Rust Belt swing states closer in line, but only so much - there's still a ~10% chance that he only wins Wisconsin out of the three states. Overall, the Vice President remains favored to hold the blue wall (excluding Wisconsin) two-thirds of the time.

Ms. Harris also remains favored to win the Southwest, but her polling average has declined in Nevada while rising fairly significantly in Arizona. This is good news, on net, for her prospects of winning the electoral college, where Arizona is now the tipping point state, but only so much given the state's demographic dissimilarity from the big prizes up north.

Finally, the most volatile region of the week seems to be the South Atlantic. The coloration change in the former President's favor jumps out the most here, and he has indeed gained significantly in Georgia. However, under the hood, it was actually the Vice President who gained in North Carolina by a good deal - the second-biggest change of any swing state. I'll probably save speculation on why the two states are on different trajectories for another post but I will point out that it mirrors 2022 at the state government level.

Overall, the race for president is in a similar state to last week, with swings favoring both candidates and not really affecting either candidate's Electoral College math. Ms. Harris is hoping for a convention boost that lasts and propels her into the clear lead, while Mr. Trump hopes that the national polls continue moving in his favor long-term, but neither should be resting on their laurels if they wish to win this close election.

[gallant-basilisk]

Heyyy can I request a fanfic of bakugou (mha) with an s/o that age regresses (the sfw type) when stressed and overwhelmed? Like having trouble learning for a school subject or the similar, going into that regression state where bakugou comforts the s/o and overall trys and make them feel better. I hope it’s not too much or difficult ^^

Okay, so I've never written an age regression, so please pardon me!

Also, my writing is a little rusty... Btw, I'm back... As is the norm for me I've ended up ghosting y'all 'cause I put too much pressure on myself, but I think I've got things under control... Hopefully... Point is, I won't have expectations for myself to deliver weekly for example, so hopefully I won't have another burn-out like this one anymore.

Imma do all the requests you've sent me before (a long, long time ago), then i think I'll implement some changes/ new stuff

I'm considering making a poll listing some fandoms (video games and animes mostly) to expand what fandoms I write for

+ I'm also considering posting fan art here, but we'll see! ☺️

"Ghfuu..!" Your eyes skim through the sentences on the paper laid out before you, chewing on the end of the pen held in your trembling hand, and you know you're supposed to know how to solve the problem, but you don't. Somehow, no matter how many times you reread that block of text something just falls apart when you try to put it into a simple math equation. That's gotta be it, simple, easy, not at all a problem. So why? Why do you not get it? You know you're not dumb. So you really don't get why...

You have a test tomorrow, you know it's important and it's really stressing you out. But it also makes you angry at yourself- why did you choose to leave doing this to the very last moment? You knew long before how much you struggled with math already, so why didn't you start earlier? Instead, you chose to ignore it and now, sitting at your desk so late at night, you feel so mad and frustrated.

You swing your legs under the desk in frustration, feeling a thick lump in your throat as your vision blurs. You throw your pen against the wall with as much force as you can muster and bring your hands up to your eyes, desperately trying to stop the tears from welling up in your eyes and escaping.

You grit your teeth as you bite down any noises trying to escape your throat, but you can't be bothered to lessen the strength or frequency of yours kicks against the foot of your desk, the frustrated thumps heard even from outside your room.

A soft whimper is all Bakugou hears as he swings the door of your room open, ready to yell at you for making so much noise, but he freezes as he sees you in this state - distressed, inattentative. He quietly closes the door and clicks his tongue, seemingly deciding something in his head as he stalks over to your sniffling, slouched form, your back turned towards him.

"Y/N..." He calls out softly - a stark contrast to his usual explosive personality - and leans down to be level with your face, patiently waiting for any sort of reaction or acknowledgement of his presence from you.

You see him, from the corner of your eyes, but you immediately whip your head to the other side, not wanting him to see you like this. "Go away...." You mumble under your breath, the sentence filled with a childish tone of frustration as you curl up on your chair, laying your cheek on your knees as you hug them closer to yourself.

Instead of insulting you or calling you some name, as you had expected him to do, Bakugou simply sighs and continues staring at you, which frustrates you, for a reason you can't explain. "Don't... Bakugou, stop!" You hiss, waving your hand in front of him to get him to leave you alone. "Y/N, stop with the tantrum." He says firmly, his tone eerily calm as he tilts his head just the slightest bit. His eyes scan the way you sit, how you try to curl up to the best of your abilities, how your body trembles from your shaky breaths as you sniffle, trying to hold back your tears. Then he looks over at your desk, narrowing his eyes at the paper filled with moderately easy math problems. He releases another tired exhale as he sees a few darkened damp spots on the sheet, the marks of your tears, then he looks back at you.

He straightens up and looks around the desk, quickly spotting your pen that rolled right up to your trash can. He picks it up and places it neatly on the paper, waiting for a few seconds as he thinks of what to do next.

"Y/N, baby... Look at me..." He places a hand on your head, gently stroking your scalp and twirling his fingers into your hair, careful not to pull it. "Teddy bear..." He whispers softly, a small smile on the edge of his lips as his hand slides down your face and holds the side of your cheek as it were the most delicate thing, slowly tilting your head to look at him. "Baby, what's wrong?" He wipes a single tear from your eye with his thumb and strokes your skin under your eye as he stares at you with a loving gaze, something entirely reserved just for you.

You let out a frustrated huff as you stare at him, the corners of your eyes red. You pout, but keep silent as you look away, crossing your arms. "I can't help you if you don't tell me what you need help with." He says teasingly, offering you a smile as his other hand joins in holding your face, gently stroking under your eyes. You huff, grimacing at his words.

Upon realising you wouldn't tell him in a straightforward way he tilts his head towards your table and leans down closer to you, his voice much more quiet and softer than before. "Do you want..." Bakugou takes a deep breath, mustering all his mental strength to keep up this gentle front. "Do you want Pom-pom to help you with homework, teddy bear?" He takes a moment to add, "Or do you want something else right now?"

You wipe your tears and swallow, trying to force back your crying, but failing miserably. You try to speak, but your words come out as incoherent babbles, which makes Bakugou chuckle as he looks at you in an adoring way. "Do you not want to do homework right now?" You shake your head, sniffling as you continue desperately wiping your eyes. "Figured." He lets a short laugh before snaking his arms under your knees and behind your back, picking you up and cradling you close to his chest. You immediately cling to him, grasping his shirt in your hands as you lean your head on his shoulder, still crying a little. "It's okay, teddy bear, you don't need to do your homework right now, I'm sure it can wait." You look at him with a frustrated expression, wiping your face in his shirt, smearing your tears and a little bit of your snot on it. "That.... that was uncalled for." He huffs, his voice a little angry, but he tries his best to conceal it as he carries you out of the room.

"What would teddy bear would like to do, hm? Sleep?" You shake your head, biting your lip uncertainly. "Take a walk?" You shake your head again. "Okay, then how about taking a nice, warm bubble bath, and I set up a tablet so you can watch a cartoon while taking a bath?" He offers as he makes his way to the bathroom, swaying you in his arms gently. You nod as your crying softens to sniffling and one of your hands snakes up to play with his spiky hair, loving the funny texture of it as you smile.

He nuzzles your face with his own, not caring about the dampness of your cheeks as a giggle escapes you, your other hand placed on his face, playfully pushing it away. "Pom-pom..." You exhale calmly, still playing with his hair as your eyes flutter and your other hand falls down to his neck, lazily wrapping around it. He winces as he hears the name from your mouth, still not quite accustomed to being called that.

"Teddy bear.." He whispers as he shakes you a little and you open your eyes, recognizing the familiar tiling of the bathroom as Bakugou places you down carefully, holding you up until he's certain you're awake (and willing) enough to stay upright by yourself. "I'm going to run your bath, you can bring any toys you want, if you wanna play with them..." He offered as he walked over to the bathtub and turned the faucet. You nod a bit more enthusiastically as you skip over to the cabinets and open them, excitedly taking out a bunch of toys in one fell swoop and bringing them to Bakugou, who simply looks at you gently as he helps you arrange the toys on the edge of the bathtub. You jump excitedly, feeling impatient as the bathtub filling up feels like it's taking ages, looking at Bakugou with a pout. "Teddy bear, I can't do anything about it..." He says, stroking your head. You roll your eyes and pace around. The logical part of you is, well, sort-of aware of how childish you're being, so you try to tone it down a little. Though the longer you try to behave, the more it seems the bathtub is not filling fast enough and the more difficult it becomes to stay put.

You groan exaggaratedly, throwing your head back and staring at Bakugou, your face inches from him. "Y/N." He warns, briefly glancing at you before returning to tapping the tablet's screen. You let out an annoyed noise as you go around and peer over his shoulder, leaning up against him. Your hand reaches out to point at your favourite cartoon, which Bakugou humors by ruffling your hair then promptly positioning the tablet on the tablet-holder mounted on the wall.

"Happy?" He asks with a hint of irritation, but his eyes remain kind as he looks at you nodding your head, then gestures behind himself to the tub. "Your bath's ready, the towel, toys are here and you can watch your cartoon. Now be a good teddy bear and enjoy the bubble bath, yeah?" "Yeah!" You jump up enthusiastically, giggling. "Alright. I'll be right outside. If you need anything, just call out. Got it?" "Got it." "Great, good teddy bear. I'm proud of ya for being so well-behaved." You avert your gaze in embarrassment, smiling awkwardly as Bakugou leaves and closes the door.

[...]

You giddily skipped down the stairs, four plushies smothered in your arms as you quickly make your way to the couch in the living room and throw yourself on it, landing on three of the plushies, while the fourth falls to the floor. "Careful, sweetie, you might hurt yourself jumping around like that." Bakugou laughs, having grown a little more accustomed to your behaviour and feeling more receptive of your childishness.

He places down a bunch of food, snacks and some take-out he ordered whilst you were enjoying your bath, plopping down beside you and pulling a large blanket over the both of you. One of his arms reaches out and pulls you into is side, leaning his chin on the top of your head, letting out a long sigh.

Today was definitely exhausting for him, not being very good at remaining this calm for hours, but he was more than willing to do it for you.

He just prays the next time you won't be even more unruly.

[nautilusopus]

like just to drive home the point, voting in local elections is arguably the most important voting you can do. these are usually the people banning books or deciding what gets taught in schools, making zoning ordinances that will directly and immediately affect your rent or mortgage, and, crucially, appointing people to offices like judge or sheriff. if you aren’t lucky enough to live in a swing state like me, these votes are imo WAY more important than the presidential ones, and they’re what help prevent things like gerrymandering and poll discrimination so your vote can matter for larger elections, like congressional representatives. and because the population size is much smaller and you are running off a direct democracy in these things, your vote actually, really does matter. if you’ve got the energy for it, being involved in your local town government is something you can do that can eventually matter on a HUGE scale. that shit is how we got blorgia. 

do not underestimate the power of walking up to your city representatives and giving them what for, because i promise you the maga fucks are doing it on the daily. you are a much closer constituent to Jerry, that guy that used to run the arcade and decided to run for the water board, than you are to any senator, and they know that too.

[eightyonekilograms]

The rail thing is good PR strategy. The union workers themselves will know and spread word-of-mouth, which is going to be key in swing states, and he's getting that win far closer to the election. This explains to me how Biden managed to get that union endorsement and no one brought up the rail strike when reporting on it.

I mean, maybe; @centrally-unplanned seemed to be saying the same thing. But I just have this vision of 2024 being a succession of leftists and MAGAs joining hand-in-hand to yell about how much Biden sucks for screwing over the rail workers. Will that move the needle? I don’t know, but polling pretty clearly indicates that the working class— including working-class non-whites— is moving rightward at a rapid clip and I can’t imagine this will help. A loud, straightforward victory months ago seems like a much better counter to that than quietly winning in a press release.

[dankusner]

Is Texas a battleground state?

There’s no swing in Texas

Hardly.

The vast majority of races on November’s Texas ballots are highly predictable, offer little to no competition and won’t change the state’s political dynamic.

Republicans have controlled statewide politics for nearly 30 years.

And though the margin of GOP statewide wins has decreased considerably since the high-water mark of 2014, odds are the party will maintain its control.

“The likelihood is that a presidential year would be the biggest boon for Democrats, but that has been muted by the kind of accelerated interest among Republicans,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston.

Rottinghaus said demographic shifts have helped Democrats become more competitive in statewide races, but the long-predicted move to swing state status hasn’t been realized.

“That’s the biggest quandary that the Democrats face,” Rottinghaus said.

“Demographics are moving in their direction, which is on paper positive, but the actual outcomes in voting haven’t gone their way.” A battleground is a distinct classification — a place where the Republican and the Democratic candidates have a chance to capture the state’s electoral votes. In this year’s election, there are only seven — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona.

Some states are not presidential battlegrounds but have competitive down-ballot or midterm races.

They also have recent histories of electing leaders from both parties.

Even if you squint hard, Texas has trouble meeting either qualification.

Still, there are compelling storylines to follow.

Former President Donald Trump is favored to beat Kamala Harris in Texas, though most analysts expect a margin of victory in single digits.

In 2020, Trump bested Joe Biden in Texas by 5.5 points.

Robust turnout for the presidential race could produce coattails that impact down-ballot races for both parties.

In addition, Texas elections usually offer a race that tests the state of Lone Star politics.

This cycle it’s the Senate showdown between Republican incumbent Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas.

Cruz has a moderate lead in polls and is favored to win.

If Allred breaks through, it would shake the state’s political landscape and have national repercussions, as both parties are vying to control the U.S. Senate.

Legislative races

Statewide races tell only part of the Texas political saga.

Democrats wield considerable power in the urban centers and have made inroads in some suburban areas.

Even so, Republicans maintain firm control of the Texas House and Senate.

Though Democrats have closed the statewide gap from Greg Abbott’s 20-point drubbing of Wendy Davis in the 2014 race for governor, the party appears no closer to taking control of the Texas Legislature.

Democrats’ best chance came in 2008, when excitement over Barack Obama’s candidacy propelled the party to within two seats of controlling the Texas House.

In November, it’s highly unlikely Democrats can make significant gains, much less take control, in the House — where Republicans hold a 86-63 advantage with one vacancy.

The Senate is also out of reach, with Republicans holding a 19-12 majority.

The good news for Democrats is that they won’t lose much ground, either.

In 2021 Texas lawmakers, led by the Republicans in charge, redrew state legislative and congressional boundaries to protect most incumbents from both parties.

They made sure that there were almost no swing districts in Texas and that the political balance of power remained status quo.

Looking ahead to the 2025 legislative session, Republicans are poised to push through a conservative agenda on an array of issues, including private school vouchers.

Wins that count

For decades Texas politics has been defined by a familiar pendulum that doesn’t quite make it to the other side.

At the beginning of a decade, boundaries are drawn to fortify GOP majorities and protect most Democratic incumbents.

During the first couple of election cycles under the new districts, there are few highly competitive races and the power dynamic remains stagnant.

By the middle of the decade, particularly in urban and some suburban areas, demographic shifts made some legislative races more competitive for Democrats, so they made some gains.

Consider the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats flipped 12 GOP-held seats in the Texas House — 10 in the Dallas area.

Collin County Republican Reps. Jeff Leach and Matt Shaheen, both of Plano, won races decided by a handful of voters. Dallas County Republican Reps. Angie Chen Button of Garland and Morgan Meyer of University Park were also in tight contests.

That same year, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, came within 2.6 percentage points of beating Cruz, which provided coattails that helped some Democrats win legislative and congressional seats, including Allred’s win over Republican Pete Sessions in Dallas-anchored District 32.

Democrats believed they were poised to take the Texas House in the next election, and Republicans took the threat seriously.

In 2020 a more focused GOP maintained control of the Texas House and Senate, which gave them the opportunity to redraw legislative boundaries and fortify the districts that had become vulnerable over the previous decade.

The result:

Seats held by Leach, Shaheen, Button and Meyer — in districts that were trending Democratic — became more favorable to the incumbents.

It’s a similar refrain across the state and a core reason why November doesn’t feature many close state legislative races. No congressional races are considered highly competitive, including in North Texas.

Message, money

For most of the past 30 years, the question has been: How long will GOP dominance last?

The prediction has been that demographic shifts will help Democrats, particularly with the emergence of Latino voters.

But the shift has not propelled Democrats to significant victories, and Republicans have wooed Latinos with success in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

“This vote has been traditionally favoring Democrats because of longstanding ties, but as those ties atrophy, you’re starting to see a newer generation of Latinos support Republican politicians,” Rottinghaus said.

A bigger challenge may be money and message.

While candidates in smaller states can run cost-effective campaigns with localized messages, Texas is a behemoth with costly media markets.

Texas Democrats, Rottinghaus said, are getting trapped in national narratives that prevent them from connecting to voters as Texans, not generic national Democrats.

“Texas politics is not national politics,” Rottinghaus said. “It’s harder for Democrats to carve out a unique position that might appeal to voters. Instead, they’re forced to defend what national Democrats are doing, and that might look too liberal for where most Texans are.”

The best way to describe Texas is a state where Republicans control statewide politics but Democrats have become more competitive.

Some Democrats have focused on strengthening the urban strongholds, which could pay dividends in a state where Republicans are running up the score in the rural areas they control.

Unless Democrats can strike an unexpected blow, battleground status for Texas is still a dream deferred.

COULD CRUZ GET THE BOOT?

A top Senate Democrat said Tuesday that Colin Allred's race against Ted Cruz in Texas is one of two the party is focused on in its bid to unseat Republicans.

They say Allred's shot at flipping Ted Cruz's seat is "very real."

houstonchronicle.com

Senate Democrats see Ted Cruz as vulnerable in November election

James Osborne

3–4 minutes

WASHINGTON — Senate Democrats are targeting Texas as one of two states where they can flip seats currently held by Republicans.

With polls showing a close race between U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep Colin Allred, U.S. Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Tuesday that Democrats were “committed” to the Texas race, along with the campaign to unseat Sen. Rick Scott of Florida.

“Its very real,” Peters said. “Ted Cruz did not win his last race by very much. It showed he was vulnerable, and I believe he’s even more vulnerable this cycle as people have gotten to know him better.”

The Cruz campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced in April it was launching a $79 million ad campaign across nine states, toward defending incumbents in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as attempting to flip seats in Texas and Florida.

In a poll last week by Emerson College Polling/The Hill, Cruz was leading Allred by 4 percentage points, with 8% of responders undecided — an increase from a January poll showing the incumbent’s lead at just 2 points.

Whether Allred, a three-term congressman, can replicate or best O’Rourke’s meteoric rise six years ago has been an ongoing question this campaign.

Article continues below this ad

A former star linebacker at Baylor University who went on to play five seasons in the National Football League, Allred surprised pundits when he defeated former Republican congressman Pete Session in 2018.

But he remains unknown to many Texans, in contrast to Cruz’s national persona. Allred’s campaign has been spending heavily on television and social media advertising to try and change that, but Peters acknowledged Tuesday that Allred still had work to do.

“Colin does need to get better known. That’s part of the campaign. But when people get to know him they’re going to like him,” Peters said. “Ted Cruz has very high name recognition. He also has very high negatives. That’s not a strength.”

James Osborne covers the intersection of energy and politics from the Houston Chronicle’s bureau in Washington, D.C.

[sa7abnews]

Trump's feud with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp risks blowing the key state

New Post has been published on https://sa7ab.info/2024/08/11/trumps-feud-with-georgia-gov-brian-kemp-risks-blowing-the-key-state-2/

Trump's feud with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp risks blowing the key state

Former President Donald Trump has renewed his feud with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp even as Kemp has tried to turn the page from 2020.Joe Raedle/Getty Images; Brynn Anderson/Pool/APDonald Trump has made the odd decision to renew his feud with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp.Kemp, a popular Republican, has tried to move on from 2020.But twice in the last week, Trump has teed off on Kemp and even attacked his wife.Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has shown Republicans how they win in the increasingly purple swing state. So naturally, former President Donald Trump is renewing his feud with the popular leader.Trump's decision to blast Kemp and his wife, Georgia First Lady Marty Kemp, during a rally in Atlanta, is indicative of a campaign that has lost its footing since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race."I don't want her endorsement. I don't want his endorsement. I just want them to do their job for Georgia," Trump said of the Kemps during an August 3rd rally in Atlanta. "In my opinion, they want us to lose."Trump also called Kemp a "bad guy" and a "very average governor." Neither Kemp supported Trump during the GOP presidential primary. Marty Kemp said in April she would write her husband's name in instead of Trump this November. Gov. Kemp has endorsed Trump and has moved to turn the page.Republicans had a fairly conventional playbook to beat Vice President Kamala Harris, who has jettisoned most of the progressive views that defined her 2020 primary campaign. Instead of questioning Harris' policy, Trump told a room of Black journalists that Harris wasn't really Black. He's gone after Jewish Americans who happen to support Harris, questioning their faith in a way that harkens back to the worst impulses of antisemitism. And now, Trump is back to attacking his fellow Republicans.Influential Republicans and even Trump's allies are begging him to get back on message."If we lose Georgia, it could be a very long night. So let's win this election," Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a noted Trump ally, told "Fox News Sunday" when asked about the feud. "How about that? Let's win an election we can't afford to lose."But Trump's renewed feud with Kemp illustrates how, at any moment, the former president can harm his own standing. It's a return to the form that cost Trump the White House and Republicans both houses of Congress."If you want to understand the problem Trump created for himself in Georgia, today on the radio, 9 out of 10 callers are women, and they're all mad at him for attacking Brian Kemp's wife," conservative radio host Erick Erickson, who lives in Georgia, wrote on earlier this week.Trump can retake the White House without winning Georgia. But flipping the Peach State back to Republicans would preserve what once seemed to be a very expansive Electoral College map. Harris can also win the White House without Georgia. If she holds the state and its 16 Electoral College votes, she could sustain a potential setback in one of the so-called "Blue Wall" states in the upper Midwest.There hasn't been much polling of the state since Harris rose to the nomination, but a recent AARP poll found a race that is too close to call. Cook Political Report, which had previously moved more states closer to Trump, put Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona all back into their "toss up" category.Trump needs Kemp's organization.Kemp is more than just a popular governor. He is the leader of an expansive ground game that powered his nearly 8-point reelection victory in a rematch against former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, who he beat by less than 55,000 votes just four years prior.Trump's team, according to Erickson, needs Kemp's organization because it hasn't stood up one of its own. Unlike Harris, Trump is relying far more on outside groups to push the type of canvassing and get the out efforts expected of a presidential campaign. His campaign leaders have said that traditional organizations aren't all they are cracked up to be, but Republicans across the country are nervous about the strategy.Kemp didn't even have to moderate his stances to win so convincingly. In a state with two Democratic US senators, the Republican governor championed the passage of one of the nation's toughest abortion bans, weakened gun laws, and restricted how teachers can discuss race in the classroom. By any measure, he's shown the blueprint of how Republicans can win without compromising conservative principles.Even after the Trump rally, Kemp tried again to press on. But the former president couldn't resist taking another swipe at Georgia's governor during his meandering Thursday news conference."Without me, he wouldn't be governor. I got him elected," Trump, who endorsed Kemp in 2018, told reporters at Mar-a-Lago.Trump also added that he hoped his relationship with Kemp could be repaired. On Friday, Kemp offered another olive branch while jokingly comparing Trump to Tropical Storm Debby, which slammed the state."A lot of noise out there, as you can imagine, a lot of distractions, which in my opinion, is not what we need to be doing right now in the presidential campaign or in any of the campaigns we're running in the state of Georgia to keep our majorities in the House and Senate," Kemp told Erickson during an onstage interview at a conservative conference Erickson is hosting.Left unsaid is that biggest distraction of all has been Trump. The man Kemp is desperately trying to put back in the White House, if only he will let him.

[bakugohoex]

Are you going to make part 3 of jeans this isn’t a date?

part three: “this isn’t a date jean, we’re undercover”

pairing: jean kirschtein x female reader

cw: fluff, angst, season 4 spoliers, major character death, kissing and comfort

word count: 2700+

a/n: the poll went for fluff ending but i still added some angst, originally i was going to kill you off so yeah this is what you guy’s are getting, a moderate sad ending with jean’s comfort

summary: in which the time for fighting has begun and with the success of eren and the capture of zeke, the long journey ahead back to paradis seems to be your only concern, until the arrival of an unexpected warrior creates turbulence with jean realising his only goal now is to protect you

part one | part two

↞ back to attack on titan masterlist

The shock and horror stayed on the Marleyans faces, the sound of Eren chewing Lord Tybur up as if he meant nothing and then there were you two. Jean gave a nod as you both parted, his hand being the last thing you felt on your own, a sign of the love you both held for one another. The way they all ran away in fear as Eren marched towards the Marleyan soldiers, he had murdered so many people in an instant. But you knew worst of all you were about to do the same thing to them all. 

It all became a flash of thought, the way the war hammer titan’s bright yellow light rose up from the sky, you had begun flying closer to where the real action was. Leading a squad to easily infiltrate and kill the Marleyans, but even with these people by your side a sense of duty settled within you. 

Soaring through the air past the buildings and rubble until you finally saw the scene first hand, the white war hammer already hurting Eren and the signs of canons hitting him. You knew what was to come just as the War Hammer titan began thinking she had won, the one indestructible force arrived. Mikasa swung with ease as you watched in the air, shooting and using the thunder spears, you shot up from the air with your own squad. The way you all at ease began using the spears to kill the soldiers with such ease. 

“Good work guys.” You muttered slowly through the flames, moving closer onto where the canons were. You notice Jean a small smirk seeing you finally fighting after these past couple of months. He shot at the men who hadn’t been harmed, watching as you did the same. It began easier to swing with actual buildings and rubble, shooting at those who were fighting back, the fires and explosions that occurred bringing a sense of relief that you weren't the ones being murdered. 

You and Jean swung through the air, seeing as he grabbed a man to get up to the roof. “Grab my hand.” He whispers as you easily get swung over onto the roof. Both you and Jean leave heavy breathes at all the blood on your hands. “Those morons.”

You both had seen the flash of another explosion, Jean more pissed off that normal, “Jean.” It was only a mere whisper, but he was pissed at Floch’s shooting. 

“Hey! You gonna burn the whole zone down?!” What part of keeping civilian casualties to a minimum don’t you get, Floch?” You easily chased after the brunette, who began shouting at Floch as usual. 

Floch turned to meet you both, staring at the scene in front of you of fires and explosions. You didn’t care for his words, but you saw as he began shaking his hands violently. You moved away from the two of them wanting to see the action and if any Marleyan soldiers were near to kill. Floch continued rambling onto Jean as you the cold hard truth had been brought to light. This was a battle to kill, the only ones you needed being Eren and his brother, revenge was the main cause of this all. Your people’s revenge. 

“Y/n.” Jean softly whispers as you watch the fire, the men around you dead as you both begin waiting for the rest of the squads to meet here. You could already see the beacons of lights appear throughout the city, knowing the plan seemed to be working. 

You turn to face Jean, even with blood across your fingers and clothes, he still looked at you as if you were the prettiest woman he had ever met. “I did promise a date if we got out of this right?” He touches your cheek softly, fire blazing across the ruined zone. 

“You did but remember what I’ve said many times.” You paused as you urged him to think. 

“This isn’t a date Jean, we’re undercover.” He mocked giving a sign as you playfully pushed his arm. 

You see a Marleyan soldier in the distance, gun up ready to shoot you down. “Yeah, I do say that a lot, but move.” You shouted the last part, Jean in an instant moved to the other side finally seeing what you saw as you quickly shot the man down with the gun that had been at your side. 

“Look at you saving me.” He mutters softly, if you haven't seen the man, they’d have gotten shot, he knew he’d have to keep protecting you but even then, he knew you could handle those idiot Marleyans yourself. 

You both saw Connie and Sasha in an instant, Connie the first to say, “Jean, Y/n, we stalled the reinforcements.” 

Jean went to the ground checking on the thunder spears as he turned to face them both, “and the lights?” You questioned. 

“They’re all-in place.” Sasha spoke.

“Are things going well?” Connie questioned as both you and Jean looked at each other hesitantly. 

“For the time being.” Jean almost whispers out as you turn to face the two of them properly. You all see Mikasa sore through the air as Jean continued, “as long as we take that thing out in time. But who knows? Anything can happen at this point. What’s to come when this battle is over? For us to know, we have to survive.”

The feeling that the last part had been directed at you felt unsettling, you would survive. You had to survive and be with Jean if that was the last thing you ever did. Mikasa shot the War Hammer Titan in the eye as you went to grab some thunder spears yourself, it felt like everything had easily worked in your favour with minimum casualties. Another flash of yellow leading to Eren’s Attack titan being seen with the hard form of one of the Tybur’s ready to be eaten. 

“Come on Eren.” You softly whispered looking at the scene at hand, the way Eren was just about to eat it when the Jaw titan came out of nowhere. It seemed like you had spoken to soon, the four of you in shock as the Jaw titan bit into Eren’s neck until the blades hitting the enemy titan was heard from humanities greatest solider with murder on his mind. 

The sound of guns shooting through the air made you startle until both you and Jean swung through the air. Ready to shoot at the Cart titan, Jean moved through the air, but it seemed the guns had become too much as both of you landed in a building. “Y/n.” Jean shouted bringing you behind a table as you heard the gunshots occur, he held his body around you as you cowered into him before it stopped. “I’ve got you.”

Instead the whole building rumbling at the sight of another titan coming, both you and Jean looked out through the broken window seeing it, “the Beast Titan.” Both you and Jean flew out from the building seeing the two other men follow in suit, before those around you got killed as well. “Jean, we have to stop them both.”

“I know.” He mutters before flying into a building with you beside him, the sounds of rubble falling from the broken-down rocks that the Beast Titan had thrown at you all. “Y/n, you okay?”

“I’m fine.” You mutter from the ground, the sign of a much brighter light occurred, and you knew exactly who it was, Armin had transformed destroying the ships. Swinging through the air as Levi quickly dropped the Beast Titan in a matter of seconds. Distracting the Cart’s titans weapons seemed easy enough but with the mass amounts of weapons you couldn’t tell and that’s what allowed Sasha to easily shoot one of the men down. The Cart titan began moving towards Sasha, Jean in an instant appearing putting a spear right in the eye as you and the men watched before the command was heard. 

“Now! Fire!” It was all you all needed to shoot down the Cart titan in a matter of seconds, fire blazing as you had won against the titan. Flying away from the scene with ease with the other members of the Survey Corps, you stood on the roof watching the men shoot upwards towards you Jean and the rest of the group. The sight of the airship surrounding the air brought a relief to you, you could finally go home, leave Marley with a victory. 

“It's here.” Connie spoke just as you flew onto the roof where the rest of the guys were. 

“Yeah. Right on time.” You bent down to meet Jean, a hand on his shoulder as he gave a soft sign knowing that you were safe. 

A victory had been won, the gain of the War Hammer titan and Eren’s defeat of Reiner’s titan seemed to come with no cost to your friends. “I’ve run out of gas.” You whisper to Jean. 

“Grab onto me.” He holds your waist as you put your arm around his neck, both ready to finally go home. He grabs onto the ship, your body still on his own as he shouts, “protect the airship from the enemy below.”

You couldn’t do a lot in this state, but victory had occurred, and you could finally go home. Being helped up by Connie and Sasha you could finally feel safe, before helping Jean up himself. Both lying beside each other with a heavy breath, Jean finally spoke, “who’s here?”

“We’re still waiting for Squad Lima in the front.” Connie speaks watching how Jean's hand had moved to your own as the two came closer to you both. 

Sasha spoke of the death toll, before the excitement of Floch and the rest of the corps occurred over a successful victory. Jean whispered some words that were barely audible and that’s when he felt it, your arms wrapped around him, he kissed the side of your head allowing his arms to wrap around you as well. Connie brought Sasha along with him to elope himself onto the two of you, it felt just as it had in your first years as a Cadet. One happy family was brought together again. 

It brought a smile to your face, but with Jean there always seemed to be a problem, “that hurts, idiot. Don’t hug people with that lump of iron on.” He watched you all leave his side, but his arms almost missed your touch. 

“Jean don’t be mean.” You chuckle as Connie begins mocking Jean’s unsuccessful beard. Sasha began questioning about food as you began remembering the days when the three of you would have to hear Sasha go on about the next meal occurring. 

“We’re finally going home.” Jean mutters looking at you as he stands up to meet your gaze fully. He grabs your waist with an ease before giving you a soft kiss on your lips, he stopped caring about those around you both. Watching as melted right into his touch. “I love you.” He whispers through it all. 

You grab his hair to bring him down, his tongue flicking inside your own as it entangled with your own. Before finally taking a breath of your own away from him, Connie and Sasha’ eyes go wide. “I love you too.” Jean held your hand softly before you both turned to your two friends. 

“I fucking told you, didn’t I, you owe me meat when we get back.” Sasha happily spoke to Connie, as you both went beside them listening to the hurray’s of victory. 

Sasha had whispered something to Jean making the boy let go of your hand to shut the people up, “Hey, quiet down!” You moved to the side to let him past, feeling his hand on your back to make them all be quieter. 

You continued hearing the celebrations, Connie asking about Lobov as you were just glad that all your friends seemed to be safe. You stood on the other end of Jean beside the wall, leaning against it as you almost wished you could have the same innocence in this celebration that the others had. 

The sound of a child behind you made you all startle, seeing a girl with her gun raised, “Sasha.” You shouted but the bullet had already been shot right into her chest. You were unable to move, eyes widening as you easily caught her just before she was about to hit the ground. You slowly let her down, eyes widening at how blood seeped onto your clothes and hands, she stayed in your arms, her head against your knees as tears formed in your eyes. “Sasha, come on, you...you’ll make it, come on.” 

Just as Gabi was ready to shoot again, Jean put his gun out, but the other cadets got at her and the boy first. Connie came running towards Sasha, hand on her cheek, “stay with us!”

“Pl...please, don’t leave me.” You whispered, feeling her head become heavy on your, blood continuing to seep out.  Jean knelt beside you as he saw the tears drop down your face and fall down your own. “Sasha.” You wept out. 

She began speaking about food, her breath heavy as Connie pleaded for her to continue, with her last words being the one thing she truly loved, Connie watched as he got bandaged up, your body encased in blood as tears continued to drop down your face with no end. She was your best friend, and you couldn’t do anything, Jean could barely even look at her near dead state, his gaze ending up on the two children after Floch had called him.

You tried to suppress your tears, you did but every time you faced your friend, more and more formed. Your breathing irregular as it became harder and harder to even speak a word. The sound of the child's voice shouting about devils and other shit, made your tears turn into anger, in an instant you went right up to her face ready to punch her yourself. “Y/n.” Jean gave a soft whisper, “take them with me.” You continued to be filled with rage as you walked them down to where the rest of your friends were. 

Armin was the first to notice the blood across your body and the puffed-up eyes, but the two children had brought about more confusion instead. Their eyes widened at the sight of Zeke, you didn't care for their confusion, instead Levi asked who they were. Unable to speak, you let Jean speak until the very end, “this girl shot Sasha.” Tears welled up in your eyes again, “it...it doesn’t seem like she will make it…”

Armin and Mikasa ran past the two of you, you could barely move to run with them. Your legs felt heavy as you sobbed at your words, tears continuing to fall down your face. Standing in the corner, your hands at your eyes as you sobbed quietly, you prayed she would be okay. Hoped for a miracle to occur where everything was fine, and she never actually got shot. But that’s when you felt the blood on your clothes, the blood on your face and hands. The blood everywhere, Jean began shouting at Yelena, you ignored all sounds as all you wanted to hear was your crying.

The sound of the door opening made you move to see who it was, Connie appearing with a horrified face, as you and Jean both stared at him. “Sasha…” He paused making your head think she was okay, that she was alive, “she’s dead.”

Your whole life crumbled in an instant, you felt your knees go weak as you fell to the ground, Jean catching you as he felt with you, his arms around you. You sobbed into his shoulder, wailing with no end. Your friend was dead, the girl you had grown up gone in a matter of seconds, dead because of a stupid little girl. 

Jean’s eyes widened as tears formed his own eyes as he held you close. He stopped caring about the mission, stopped hearing others, only seeing you. He couldn’t let what had happened to Sasha occur to you, he couldn't. He would protect you with his last breath, and now with you in his arms a crying mess, he’d keep that promise he made to you when you had just met at 12, he’d keep the promise. Never wanting to see you cry like this ever again, because you were always going to be his, and he’d be damned to let anything happen to you. 

go back to part two

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[tainted-wine]

Honorable Mention

I heard @lemonlordleah-shinzawa-kitten​ SOS signal to all Hizashi fuckers and I have responded accordingly. Sorry for being late to the party!

Words: 1.4k

Warnings: None, except for spoilers for the current arc.

The interview room was warmly furnished in a way to make guests feel at home, not like they were in a professional setting. The beams from the sun were perfectly aimed to make the smiling hero’s face glow. Attractive, and quite distracting. 

It was all going fairly smoothly so far. Hizashi held no animosity toward anyone for missing out on the Top 10 Party. Every question about his personal feelings on the matter was answered with something along the lines of “It’s nothin!”

“Not gonna lie, I’m bummed that I don’t get to wear the steampunk outfit they had planned for me. Have you seen the design? I would’ve had an entire phonograph attached to my neck!” He laughed and slapped the armrest of his plush chair. “But it’s not like I wasn’t there, I was the one announcing the winners. That’s what I do best!”

You nodded as you scan your list of planned questions. “That’s true. Your presence has always been there, especially in the anime.”

“Exactly! Who else is gonna call out new characters and explain their quirks? That role is for me and only me, baby!”

“I agree, but after the work you’ve put in during the War Arc, many of us believe that you deserve more love. Especially after your infamous DJ Punch.”

“Ohohohoo,” Hizashi chuckled lowly at the pleasant memory. “Now there’s something I want! A few more right hooks to that doctor’s jaw. Sometimes screaming just doesn’t cut it, ya know? I’d rather get a little more hands-on, ‘specially when things get...personal.” His expression flashed into something darker, but the mysterious thought appears to leave his mind as quickly as it came.

You ignore it and stay on topic. No need to make this interview heavy or distressing in any way. “It was a very pleasant surprise for us, seeing you get up close and personal like that. I never pegged you as the physical type.”

He shrugged. “I hear that all the time, but come on, what do you guys think I do when I can’t use my super hazardous quirk? Do you think I just stand there and commentate?”

Well, when he puts it like that... “My apologies, I suppose it just never crossed my mind.”

He held up a hand to halt any rising feelings of guilt. “No worries, listener. I don’t mind my reputation as just ‘The Announcer Guy’, it makes things all the more satisfying when I see the shock on a villain’s face after I bust his nose.”

-------------

Frankly, the interview wasn’t nearly as passionate and bitter as many were definitely hoping it would be, but you didn’t want to antagonize the friendly hero for the public’s entertainment. If the poll results didn’t bother him, then that’s just how it is.

After shaking hands, you both stood up and straightened yourselves out. You uttered a “thanks again” to him before taking your clipboard and pen, but Hizashi speaks up the second you take your first step toward the door.

“Y’know, it’s not that hard to throw a decent punch.”

You turn to him. “Is that so?”

“Yeah. How about a free lesson in exchange for a nice clean interview. I appreciate it!”

That’s...well, you had things to get done, but, “Alright.” Your interest in Present Mic wasn’t just an act put up for the sake of the interview. You're a genuine fan that isn’t going to pass up the opportunity to personally learn something from him.

The hero gently took your things and placed them to the side before taking his place right in front of you. “Okay, go ahead and take a swing at your boy.” His arms opened up, waiting patiently for your attack.

You shifted awkwardly, unsure of the proper way to punch, so you just ball your hand into what you believe is a decent fist and weakly shoot it forward.

A gloved palm stops it before making contact, his grip gentle yet firm. Emerald eyes examine your fist closely — it all has goosebumps forming on your skin for reasons you don’t know. Or at least you don’t think you know. “Not bad! Always make sure your thumb is on the outside and your fingers curl into your palm. Gotta take that impact without damaging your hand. Try again!”

You withdraw your hand and take his advice, positioning your fingers like he told you before launching another strike. He catches it again, this time with a hum of approval. “Ya wanna hit me with your knuckles, not the flat of your fingers. Turn it up and try again!”

You do just that. Another punch, another quick lesson.

Hizashi gets closer than you ever imagined, those talented hands positioning your hips and shoulders at more appropriate angles. “The power comes from your whole body!” He states before motioning for another go.

This isn’t at all how you planned to spend your break after the interview, but you had no complaints even as you exposed your clumsiness to the renowned hero. He was a teacher, after all. You just didn’t expect him to be as proficient at teaching self-defense as he was with English.

“So,” he starts up while casually catching your fists. “How did you personally feel when I punched Dr. Douche in the face?”

The question makes you pause, but a quick gesture from Hizashi urges you to keep going. “I...well, it was admirable.”

More than that. The raw fury emitting from the normally carefree man when he charged Ujiko was...enticing. Exhilarating.

It was hot, alright? It was pretty hot, but you weren’t going to tell him that.

“Thanks! Good to know that breaking jaws gets people pumped! I’ve heard a bit of feedback from my dear listeners. Some found it shocking, some found it kinda sexy.”

Well shit.

“I can understand that.” It left your mouth before you could even think. Why the hell did you even comment on that, you idiot?

Hizashi quirked an eyebrow and grinned. “Can you, now? Give me your two cents on it.”

Your stance falters and you almost fall forward during your next swing. You thankfully catch yourself before he can do it for you. That would’ve made matters even more awkward. “That’s—of course, it’s common to find sudden aggression in an otherwise friendly person attractive.”

“Is that what it is? I just gotta do less screaming and beat more faces in so that the ladies will find me hot?”

“Of course not! You’re always—”

You stop yourself.

Whoops.

Hizashi lowered his shades just enough to give you the smuggest look that has ever graced his face. “Always what?”

Shaky stutters and darting eyes are your answer. Desperate to ignore the heat rising in your face, you fire a punch that’s much more powerful than intended.

Even with the added speed and force, he sees it coming and not only catches it, but sends your entire world spinning when he pulls you forward and twists your arm until you’ve completely twirled around with your back pressed against him. It all happened so fast that you didn’t even notice the startled squeak you made.

Your wrist is being held tightly against your lower back. The breath from his chuckle can be felt against your ear which is way too close and you might melt. “Uh-oh, someone just got a hold of you!” He exclaims in a fake panic. “How do you get him off?”

Shut up, brain. That probably isn’t what he meant.

Wanting to escape his grasp before he notices the effect he’s having on you, your free arm whips back with the limited amount of room it has, hoping to knock him back and loosen his grip, only for him to catch your other wrist and wrap your arm around the front of your body.

“Yikes, that didn’t work either!” The bastard had you trapped, his hold getting tighter every time you squirmed. You should probably stop because he’s only getting closer, his chest rising and falling against you at a much slower rate than yours. “Looks like you’re in trouble!”

One minute you were having a professional conversation with Present Mic. The next, he’s giving you a free fighting lesson. And then the next, he has you completely subdued and pressed against him.

And with his voice low enough to make your body shake, he speaks right into your ear again.

“I think you’re pretty hot too, listener.”

[yukipri]

On the Baratie, Prologue - a One Piece Mermaid AU Text Story

Thanks to everyone who sent in their opinion on the East Blue stories poll! I think Sanji’s had the most, so we’re starting off with more Baratie!

While there’ll be a continuation, here’s a bit of prelude, because they need a different reason to go to the Baratie. The ASL Pirates already have a cook after all!

Like a prologue to On the Baratie, Part 1

~~

When Thatch makes up his mind to accompany Ace back to East Blue, he knows that there's one place he wants to visit no matter what.

He's only been to East Blue once, and it was honestly ages ago, and he doubts there'll be another chance in the near future. Not many opportunities to visit the weakest Blue as a commander in an Emperor's crew, after all.

And while Thatch doubts he'd travel halfway around the world for the sole purpose of visiting this spot, he's lucky. Because on this particular trip, it's practically along the way. They're passing right by the area on their way back to re-entering the Grand Line, so there's no way in hell he's letting this slip by.

It's the only request Thatch has made on this journey, and Ace and Luffy, who are the Captains and therefore technically get to decide where they go, have no objections. Luffy's already bobbing up and down in excitement, despite their guides estimating that they still have a ways to go.

"The Baratie, huh," Ace grins. "Never heard of it, we didn't pass by our first time through, did we Deuce?"

"You've never heard of it because you lived in the middle of nowhere, in a jungle with barely any contact with human civilization," Deuce says pointedly. "Most people in East Blue at least know of it, it's kinda famous."

Ace just shrugs, and Luffy whoops as the movement of his shoulders momentarily boosts her higher. Ace indulges her and repeats the movement more aggressively until she's bouncing, and Deuce sighs. The two captains' attentions have shifted, and now they're preoccupied by the most important topic of all: food.

"Food~!" Luffy sings, hopping from one arm to the other as Ace switches to spinning her around, and Deuce has to duck to avoid her tail. "Yummy yummy food at a restaurant! It's gonna be amazing!"

"It really will be amazing, if Zeff hasn't lost his touch," Thatch agrees, and Luffy and Ace cheer. "I've never eaten at this restaurant of his, but I was a fan of the Cook Pirates when I was a kid." 

His expression darkens, and Ace stills, recalling that Thatch mentioned they all died or something.

"Sucks what happened to them," Ace offers.

But Thatch just shrugs. It was around a decade ago, and shit happens out at sea. "I'm just glad Zeff survived. He'll have trained the new cooks well, and it'll be funny to see the old man actually settled down as a civilian."

Thatch was still a teen the last time he saw Zeff, who was Captain of the infamous Cook Pirates back in the day. They were always picking fights, and picked the wrong one with Pops, and predictably lost. Pops let them live, and they had a grand party, and Thatch remembers being captivated by their culinary expertise.

Thatch chuckles to himself, and the two brothers look at him curiously, blinking with adorably similar expressions.

"I just remembered, Zeff tried to scout me. Pops wasn't thrilled."

Ace barks a laugh, hefting Luffy into a more comfortable position before she suddenly squirms out of his arms. Luffy makes a grabby motion towards Thatch, and Ace obligingly if reluctantly moves closer to let her swing up onto the taller man's shoulders.

Thatch perks up at the sudden attention, because it's not every day that the little mermaid chooses to climb someone other than her brother. Thatch knows she doesn't need it, but offers her a hand to get settled more comfortably, which she takes with a pleased little purring sound that makes his heart skip a beat. Thatch pointedly doesn't look at Ace, but he can still feel his burning gaze.

He's not sure what prompted the sudden transport transfer, but suddenly Luffy's leaning forward over his shoulder to peer directly into his face, and she's close. Thatch tries very hard not to blush.

"But if the Zeff-dude cooks are that good, are they better than you, Thatch?" Luffy asks, eyes wide. "That can't be right, because Thatch's food is the best in the world! Better than even Makino's!"

Those words do make Thatch flush crimson, and Ace snorts. Thatch ignores him, too busy trying to control the warmth bubbling up inside his chest.

Thatch doesn't think he's arrogant, but he also isn't unused to his food being praised. As ungrateful as most of his brothers back aboard the Moby usually are, he's still the head chef who leads the culinary division of their entire fleet, and it's a position he's earned. He's personally trained and assigned all of the cooks on every Whitebeard ship. He knows he cooks well.

But there's something special about Luffy's unique brand of painfully genuine praise. Even though they've been traveling together for a few weeks now, she never gets bored of singing her appreciation at every mealtime with, if anything, increasing enthusiasm. It's like every time is her first time trying his food. Thatch in no way needs her compliments to adore her, he was besotted far before she even knew he was a cook, but boy does he appreciate them, and he doubts he'll ever really get used to them.

Thatch has been called the "Best Cook in the World" by many, and he'd accepted their words politely. But to hear them from Luffy feels like the highest honor he can ever attain.

Thatch feels unbearably fond as he reaches up to fluff Luffy's hair, and she leans into his hand, eyes curving up into slits like a happy kitten, her tail curling back and forth at his back.

Ace cheerfully ruins their moment.

"We'll just have to see, Lu, and maybe if you like their cooking better, we can ditch Thatch and kidnap one of their cooks." Ace leers like the evil little shit he is, and Thatch gasps with exaggerated indignation.

"No, no!" Luffy boos her brother, clinging to Thatch like he's the embodiment of all the meals Ace had threatened she'd lose, before she swings her tail around to smack at Ace none too gently until he grudgingly raises his arms in surrender.

"If we like their cooking, then we can keep Thatch AND kidnap one of their cooks!"

"Lil Seastar, you're not satisfied with just me, even if my food is the best in the world?" Thatch teases, and sticks his tongue out at Ace when he scowls. The young Captain isn't so thrilled with Thatch's new nickname for his baby brother, and Thatch thinks it's fair revenge for him being mean. 

"Thatch's food is the best!" Luffy cries again, and Thatch glows. "But if we steal a Zeff, then we have two cooks, which means more food!" She nods, pleased with her conclusion. "More food is always good!"

Well, she's a little confused, but her point is made. They hopefully won't steal Zeff himself, as Thatch doubts he'll be happy to part with his beloved restaurant, but perhaps nabbing one of his assistants isn't a terrible idea.

While handling even Ace and Luffy's appetites is no problem for Thatch, who's used to feeding the entire Moby Dick, some company in the kitchen might not be bad.

(And, a voice whispers in his head, that they'll need a cook that Thatch approves of when he inevitably has to leave to return to Pops. It's a voice Thatch ignores, so that he can enjoy this moment, for now.)

~~

~~

I don't think it's actually ever officially stated whether Thatch's Division is actually in charge of dining, but there are other divisions that are specified, so I thought it would be interesting, so I made it that way ^ ^;

(Edit: Actually it IS explicitly stated that the 4th Division is in charge of dining, this is canon and not just a headcanon whee~!)

And if Thatch as the head of the cooking division, then to me it makes sense that he'd be insanely good at it, not just your average chef. Because I mean, they're the Whitebeard pirates. And sure, they're not as food-centric as the Big Mom Pirates, but the WBs always have quality. Cooking, I feel, is a lot more subjective than say, "Strongest Swordsman in the World" but I don't think it'd be a stretch to say that Thatch is Up There.

This isn't at all to shit on canon!Sanji or his cooking which is probably also insanely good, but Sanji's a lot younger, and the places he's been, the people he's learned from, and the people he's cooked for are far more limited. He, like everyone else, is learning rapidly by stepping out into a far larger world.

Thatch, in comparison, has been on the Grand Line for a loooooong time, traveling with the most infamous crew currently in existence, and probably has picked up a LOT of things from a lot of people. While he doesn't have an official canon age, given the ages of the other Commanders (Marco 45; Jozu 42; Vista 47), I'm putting him at 41 here. That's decades of difference in experience.

It's one of the reasons why I think exploring Thatch and Sanji's mentor-rival relationship in this AU could be so much fun, because think of how much Sanji could grow with someone like Thatch in the crew.

Luckily, Sanji's dream is to find All Blue, not to defeat the cooking equivalent of Mihawk in Iron Chef Grand Line, so outside of fighting for the heart of the love of their lives, I think they can get along quite well ^ ^;

(also do u like his nickname for Lu. I had to consult a friend. But I think it's beginning to stick for me ^ ^;)

As always, any thoughts or comments make my day! Thanks for reading <3

❀ ❀ Send YukiPri an Ask! ❀ ❀

Read the next part: 👒🐟On the Baratie, Part 1

~This ask has been added to the Mermaid AU Text Headcanons Compilation post~

[coochiequeens]

This is why I get irritated when I see statements about “white women voting republican“. It’s a class and education issue

In the Virginia race for governor, exit polls showed a big shift among White women voters, a group that made up more than a third of the state's electorate.  In 2020, they roughly split their votes for president, but this year, they backed the Republican candidate for governor by 14 points.

What's behind this swing?

Much of this shift comes from White women without college degrees.  They voted for Republican Glenn Youngkin over Democrat Terry McAuliffe by nearly 50 points. Donald Trump's margin over Joe Biden with this segment of women voters was 12 points, a far smaller margin.

There was little change in vote preference among White women with college degrees. They mostly remained in the Democratic camp.  McAuliffe's winning margin with this group was similar to Joe Biden's in 2020.

In recent elections, we've seen divides among White voters by education: College-educated voters have been more likely to vote Democratic and those without college degrees more likely to vote Republican, but the shift among the latter group in this election is notable.

Here's a closer look at what drove the vote among this group of women voters:

President Biden: High negatives for his presidency

Sixty-three percent of White women without college degrees said they "strongly disapprove" of the job Biden is doing as president. This figure is higher than the 56% of voters in this demographic group who voted against Biden in 2020. Moreover, four in 10 White women without degrees said one reason for their vote in the race for governor was to oppose Biden.

Most liked Youngkin… and they liked him more than Trump

Considering their strong support for Youngkin, it's not that surprising that this group of women voters were far more likely to have a favorable view of him than McAuliffe, but more of them also had a positive opinion of Youngkin compared to former President Trump. Seventy-two percent of White women without college degrees viewed Youngkin favorably, while 60% viewed Trump favorably.

Strong support for parental involvement in schools

Youngkin made schools and education a key part of his campaign, and this resonated with White women without college degrees. Two-thirds said parents should have "a lot" of say in what's taught in their child's school, compared to just 39% of White women with degrees who said parents should have that much say.

Democrats can win elections, and often have, without majority support from White voters without college degrees — both men and women. But it becomes more difficult for them to assemble a majority coalition with such low support from such a large group.

This why republicans don’t want to make college affordable. They want their children to lead the undereducated masses who will vote for them. Liberals moaning about “white women” just plays into their plans.

[phroyd]

Joe Biden is going to be the next president of the United States. He will be inaugurated on January 20 and take power at noon that day. There is nothing, legally, that Trump can do to stop that.

What Trump and his feckless Republican Party might do illegally to try to overturn the results of the election and prevent Biden from taking power is a different matter. Trump has evidently intimidated the administrator of the General Services Administration into refusing to acknowledge Biden’s victory and thus prevent his team from starting the transition process. Only a smattering of Republicans have acknowledged that Biden won, and most of those who have, like George W. Bush, no longer hold any political power. Trump has already filed a raft of baseless lawsuits. His people are drumming up talk of some kind of Electoral College devilry to overthrow the popular will. And Trump fired the secretary of defense, Mike Esper, yesterday, which seems like the kind of thing one does before launching a coup d’état.

Years of watching Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of victory gives many the sinking feeling that “it’s happening, again.” But rational thought tells us that these Trump gambits, all of them, are pointless. Biden won and his ascension to power is now inevitable, whether Trump accedes to that reality or not. As a wise man once sang: Gravity always wins.

Still, we’ve all seen Trump wriggle out of approximately a billion other defeats and scandals. He’s exposed the weakness of our democratic institutions, revealing just how useless they are in the face of his norm-breaking assaults. So it feels somehow naive to believe that his loss at the ballot box will translate into his loss of an actual job. It feels smart to consider that he might have a secret plan to retain that job, despite being voted out of it. Trump is the Michael Myers of our politics: He can’t be defeated, because the horror movie franchise makes too much money to ever end.

And yet, despite all this, I have gone to bed every night since Friday confident that President-elect Biden will become President Biden. I’ve come to this peace over the objection of my amygdala, which is the part of the brain that screams in fear and anxiety and tries to overpower rational thought. Here’s what I tell myself in order to help me sleep at night. Perhaps these are conversations others can have to achieve my level of forced serenity. (Amygdala in bold italics.)

Who won the election?

Joe Biden.

Who won the election if we only count legal votes?

Only legal votes are being counted. Joe Biden won those.

What about the possibility of a recount in swing states like Michigan or Pennsylvania?

Recounts traditionally do not change more than a thousand votes. Even if we’ve gone completely through the looking glass and this recount changes an unprecedented number of votes, like 5,000, which is completely unheard of, Biden’s margin of victory is too great to overcome. A recount would not change the result in states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. If Trump wants to lose twice, that’s up to him.

What about all the lawsuits, especially the ones they keep filing in Arizona and Pennsylvania?

Trump’s election lawsuits fall, broadly, into three categories: lawsuits alleging poll watchers were too far away, lawsuits complaining about the established rules for submitting mail-in ballots, and lawsuits alleging Trump voters were denied their vote because of some kind of ballot machine malfunction.

None of these lawsuits provide evidence of massive voter fraud. None of the lawsuits provide evidence of voter fraud at all. Some of the lawsuits allege some accidents, but the remedy for those accidents is counting more votes, not fewer. Trump’s claims that his poll watchers were not allowed to watch the counting of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania is flatly untrue, and his lawyers have had to admit in court that they were allowed in the room. They’ve been reduced to arguing that their poll watchers were not close enough, which, whatever. The remedy for that is to move them closer, not throw out tens of thousands of votes.

In fact, none of the Trump lawsuits allege anything that can be used to throw out tens of thousands of votes. Throwing out votes that have already been counted is not something that courts do. We can recount votes, this time with Trump watchers breathing down the necks of ballot counters and giving them Covid-19, but again, recounts don’t usually change the balance of votes by all that much.

The important thing to ask with each new Trump lawsuit is this: What is the remedy? If the remedy is “throw away tens of thousands of votes from people whose votes were clear in their choice and timely in their submission,” then that lawsuit is going nowhere. And if the remedy is not throwing out those entirely timely and legal votes, then the lawsuit will not change the results of the election.

Why would the Trump people be pushing these lawsuits if there was no chance for them to change the outcome?

Because Trump people are dumb? Hanlon’s Razor tells us: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”

Joking aside, there might be many malicious reasons for the Trump campaign to be pushing lawsuits they know are destined to fail. Stirring up doubt in Biden’s victory is a prelude to refusing to acknowledge his authority as president. Trump, or one of his kids, or somebody “Trump-approved” is surely going to run for president in 2024, and making Trump’s rabid, white-supremacist base feel like the election was “stolen” from them has a political upside as they fight for their new “Lost Cause.”

And, there’s also the grift. Trump’s campaign is broke. They’ve literally written checks they can’t cash. Trump doesn’t like spending his own money on these things (to the extent he actually has any). These lawsuits purportedly challenging the election are a huge money-making opportunity for the Trump campaign. If you read the fine print on the new fundraising e-mails Trump’s campaign is sending out to supporters, they say that “60 percent of contributions” will go toward retiring campaign debt.

Would the Trump campaign put America through 70 days of trauma to make a buck? You better believe it. The whole Trump presidency is a guerrilla marketing campaign for the Trump brand that went too far.

But the Republican Senate is going along. This is just like impeachment. Republicans wouldn’t remove Trump then and they won’t now.

Well, it’s not up to Republicans to remove Trump from office. The Constitution does all that work on January 20. Joe Biden is the president on that day whether Republicans acknowledge it or not.

But now Bill Barr has gotten in on the game, and he is the worst of Trump’s henchman.

Yes.

He’s given federal prosecutors the green light to open up investigations into possible voter fraud.

So?

SO?

There wasn’t election fraud. Trump’s legal team has no evidence of election fraud and has no money to investigate to find such evidence, so they’re using the taxpayers’ money to look for it. But Barr’s prosecutors won’t find anything because there’s nothing there. This is going to turn out the same way it did when Barr investigated but didn’t arrest Hunter or Joe Biden.

The head of the Election Crimes Branch, Richard Pilger, resigned. That should tell us how wrong this is. But Barr is not going to succeeded. It’s just another thing to remember in 70 days when Barr is out of a job. We should arrest him and charge him with abuse of power.

What if Trump refuses to leave the White House?

Biden can be president from Delaware until the White House runs out of cheeseburgers. He’ll come out of hiding eventually.

But what if Republicans never acknowledged that Biden is the president?

How’s that different from the way they treated Barack Obama?

Good point, but what about a re-vote? I’ve seen MAGA people online calling for a re-vote.

Re-voting is not a thing. There is no statutory or constitutional language that can compel a nationwide re-vote. States will certify the results of their elections in the coming weeks. And then the Electoral College will meet on December 14 in a pro-forma session to…

WHAT ABOUT THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE?

Damn it.

Can Republican state legislatures put forward a slate of electors who will vote for Trump even though Biden won those states?

Let’s be very clear: The states get to choose how they will determine their own electors, but that determination has to be made before the election. A state with a Republican legislature—let’s say, Pennsylvania—could have decided to choose electors based on a simple vote of the legislature. In fact, Republican legislators contemplated doing such a thing. But they didn’t. Instead they decided, like every other state, to let the popular will in their state determine the slate of electors.

They can’t change the method of picking electors after the election has taken place. Remember, when voters showed up to vote, they technically weren’t voting for “Joe Biden” or “Donald Trump” but for a slate of electors who would vote for Biden or Trump. If Pennsylvania wanted to change those rules, it would have had to tell its voters before they voted. It can’t run a bait-and-switch on an election. It can’t say that a vote for Biden’s electors was actually a vote for the Pennsylvania legislature to choose the electors. This is an election, not a Groupon.

The only legal recourse, which some Republicans are arguing for, is to determine that the voters “failed to make a choice” on which slate of electors to nominate, or that the results of that choice are somehow unclear. But the results will be clear once Pennsylvania certifies its election results (and, in this case, the governor and secretary of state, who certifies the results, are Democrats). It will be a close election, but voters made a choice and that choice will be clear upon certification.

States have until December 8 to certify the results of their elections.

But what if Pennsylvania’s Republican legislators insist that the results weren’t clear? Would the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority allow the state’s Republican legislature to choose a Republican slate of electors, even though it’s unconstitutional?

Maybe? Conservatives on the Supreme Court act in bad faith all the time. But consider that Biden has likely won this election with 306 electoral votes. For this gambit to work, legislatures in Pennsylvania and at least two of the other states Biden won would have to submit a slate of Trump electors. The Supreme Court would have to OK this upending of the popular will three times in total. That’s incredibly unlikely and would spark almost immediate civil unrest directed right at the Supreme Court, which has no army to enforce its rulings.

Well, what’s our plan for that?

My dude, I don’t have a plan for “nothing matters anymore.” The end of democratic self-government is not a thing one has a legal plan for. That’s like asking what my plan is for closing a demonic hell mouth that opens in my backyard. Die. My plan would be to die. I’m not Keanu Reeves.

What if Trump fires FBI Director Chris Wray and CIA Director Gina Haspel and gets the “deep state” to keep him in power indefinitely?

I’m not Kiefer Sutherland either. I cannot find the mole.

What if Trump launches a full-scale coup d’état and uses the military to keep him in power?

Then we’re at war. Honestly, what do you want from me? Yes, there is a non-zero chance that Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the election leads to a civil war and, in such a conflict, Abigail Spanberger forms a Vichy government to “compromise” with Trump supporters, and I have to pilot a jet carrying Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez off of Naboo in hopes of finding friendly Jedis willing to fight for our cause.

But there is no legitimate way for Trump to stay in power now. There’s no peaceful way for Trump to stay in power. Either he’s gone on January 20 or he remains atop a military junta willing to use violence to enforce his will.

This makes you feel better?

I find it comforting that a full-scale military takeover is now the only way for Trump to stay in power. Because if there’s one thing I know about Trump, it’s that he is a coward. President Bone Spurs is not the guy to cross the Rubicon.

I look at it this way: Captain von Trapp hiked his enormous family over the Alps to get away; all I have to do is drive my people to the Thousand Islands Bridge while we all sing “Edelweiss.” Thinking much beyond that is pointless.

Well, you could get your lazy ass on the elliptical trainer in case you’re needed to fight.

Don’t start this with me again. Goodbye.

Phroyd

[puckngrind]

What’s In A Name: 6 - J. Toews

Chapter 6

Where we left off: Jon and Bekah celebrated his birthday and he invited her to Sedona for a summer vacation.

Warnings: smut, language

Word Count: 2,150

Series Masterlist ) Puck ‘n Grind’s masterlist

Breathless.

The view from the path Jon took her was breathtaking there was no denying that but keeping up with a professional athlete was leaving Bekah completely breathless.

“Beks, you good Baby?” Jon pulls off his shirt and wets it. He hands her the water bottle then he places his shirt gently on her neck. Heaving to catch her breath while Jon pulls her into his side. “Just take in that view! So worth it. Right Babe?” Jon looks down at Bekah when she doesn’t answer. “Oh shit, you okay?”

“I sometimes forget you are a professional athlete. I remembered it about half way up, Tae.” Bekah places her hands on her knees trying to even out her breathing. Jon laugh echoes off the rocks.

“Why didn’t you tell me to slow down?” Jon squats down to look up at her bright, red, sweaty face. Dabbing his shirt tail on her face.

“I tried. You are a very determined hiker.” Jon laughs harder. “Not that I’m surprised.” Bekah closes her eyes while Jon swipes the sweat from her face.

“Sorry Babe. Seriously, Beks. You can lead tomorrow. C’mere and check out this view, it is the best.” Jon pulls Bekah up so her back is in his chest and wraps his arms around her. She leans her head back against his chest as they look out at over beauty that is Sedona’s red rocks.

“It really is gorgeous Tae. I’m glad invited me to come.” Bekah places her hands gently on his forearms.

“Well, this view is only the second most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen.” Jon whispers.

“Oh yeah, what’s the first?” Bekah looks up at him.

“You. Beks. You are the most beautiful thing I’ve seen.” Jon leans to the side so he can dip down and kiss her lips.

“Stop Tae.” Bekah raises her voice slightly.

“It’s the truth.” Jon feels her tighten under his arms.

“You cannot just say that.” Her voice has a bit of a bite to it.

“Fine, do you want me to tell you Banff or Peru would be the most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen?”

“Yes.” Bekah shuts her eyes again.

“Well they are not. Third and fourth. Just take the compliment, Beks.” He kisses the top of her head and fishes out his phone. “Hold on.” Jon jogs over to a rock formation slightly above his head. Bekah is shocked the man can even jog after he practicly ran up the trail in this Arizona heat. He sets the phone down and jogs back pulling Bekah into him. “Smile.” He whispers.

“I think that’s the first picture we have ever taken together.” Bekah finally sits down dangling her feet off a rock.

“No, it’s not but it’s the first I have taken of us.” Jon sits next to her and leans back on his hands.

“We’ve taken another picture together and I was unaware?” Bekah looks back at him and he laughs fishing his phone out again.

“You’ve never looked at my home screen have you?” Jon smiles while holding up his phone to show the picture of Bekah staring up at him wrapped up in his arms from the Stanley Cup win.

“How the... who the... oh... my..” Bekah stammered not thinking of all the flashbulbs going off that night and just being in the moment with Jon.

“I mean I don’t love my playoff beard but I love this picture. I had the picture of you in my jersey for about about a week but everytime I looked at it I... I well... I missed you... let’s put it that way.” The fire flooding Bekah’s face was no longer from the hike as Jon slipped the phone back in his pocket.

“Jon?” Bekah whispers out.

“Yes Beks.” He moved closer to her placing his arm so her back could lean into him.

“This thing, you know, you and me. It has no name but yet here we are on vacation. We fall into bed everytime we are in the same city. You’ve talked to your family about me and I’ve met them. I’m even your home screen.” Bekah’s nose scrunches up.

“We are my homescreen. And the cup.” Jon bumps her back to try and elicit a laugh. “Why don’t we go back to the house and talk more? We are losing sunlight.” Jon eyes the sun and then looks down at Bekah.

“Can we talk a little longer here?” Bekah’s voice is strained. “I know we will go back, take a shower, and ma... fall into bed. We have a pattern Tae.” Bekah’s correction was noticed.

“What were you going to say instead of fall into bed?” He questions.

Bekah curls her legs up and hold them. “Make love but I didn’t want to use that term.” She places her forehead on her knees and feels Jon’s hand run down her spine.

“I mean, that’s what we are doing isn’t it? It’s definitely more than fucking, right? I feel connected to you and that’s usually where the line is.” Jon’s matter of fact way of spelling it out was something Bekah enjoyed usually. He always just laid it out there no matter the topic.

“Jon. But...” Bekah tries to answer without moving her face.

“But this doesn’t have to have a name. And Beks, it doesn’t need one if we don’t want it. We can call us exclusive because you are the only one I’ve been with in a year and a half and same goes for you. We don’t have to label it for anyone else. Yes, my parents know about you. Yes, they have questions I cannot answer. Yes, I wish we could see more of each other than the few times a year. Yes, my teammates stopped asking me to go out to the bars to hit on women...” Jon chuckles and starts to continue.

“Wait what?” Bekah picks up her head.

“The boys figured out why I stopped going out to the bars after games when they saw you on the ice.” Jon smiles remembering how much chirping he got for not talking about the woman wrapped around him on the ice.

“That’s interesting but no, the parents have questions thing, that. What questions?” Bekah swings herself to look at him.

“The main one is why you haven’t come home with me yet. Especially when I had the cup. I explained your job but my mother said a few choice French words and that weekends were still a thing even in Ohio.” Jon smirks.

“Jon...” Bekah’s voice is meek.

“It’s okay. You do not have to waste all your time off on me. Don’t get me wrong, I would have loved you coming for my days with the cup. But I get it.” His hands cup her face and she leans into it.

“Tae, it’s not that. I don’t have a passport.” Bekah blinks and then looks at Jon’s face as it processes.

“Wait, what?” He leans in and kisses her lips.

“I’ve never needed one and they aren’t exactly cheap, especially for something that would just collect dust. I just don’t have one.” She closes her eyes.

“Fuck Bekah. Seriously? I’m glad I didn’t ask you to go to out of the country with me. You would have just said no and crushed me.” He laughs and it echos off the rocks again.

“I’m definitely stuck here in the states.” Bekah finally opens her eyes and sees Jon’s bewildered look.

“We need to remedy that ASAP.”

“Why?”

“What if I get hurt at the World Cup of Hockey tournament? Or have a few days off stuck in Canada on the weekend during a long roadie? How are you suppose to come to me if you cannot legally leave the country?” Bekah shrugs her shoulders. “We will print off the paperwork when we get back. You know, after the shower and love making.” Jon bites his lip expecting Bekah to swat at him but she just huffs out her disapproval. Standing he holds his hand out to help her up, polling her body flush with his.

“And dinner please.” She stands on her tip toes and kisses him hard.

“Yes dinner. And Beks, you really forget I am a professional athlete huh?” He brushes the loose strands of her bun out of her hazel green eyes. Staring into them with a new sense of understanding.

“I mean, I know what you do for a living. Right? I’ve seen you play but then when we are like this, I don’t think about it. If so, I’m sure my cheeks would be a permanent shade of red.” She moves her hand to brush her cheek and Jon catches it kissing her cheek then her lips. Bekah moans slightly.

“Yeah, definitely need to get you off this rock and quickly by the looks of the sun.” Jon squints as he surveys the sun over the horizon line. Analyzing the time and distance and starts to move.

“Not too quickly please.” Bekah takes off after him as Jon looks back and takes in the view of Bekah with Sedona behind her.

“I can always put you on my back if need be.” He grabs her hand, interlocks their fingers, and they walk back down to his Sedona home.

Just as Bekah announced on top of the rocks, the two got back and showered which lead to sex in the shower then dinner and falling back into bed. Jon pulling her in like he almost always does kissing her sweetly.

“What did you mean if you get hurt at hockey World cup thing?” Bekah broke the post sex silence.

“Huh?” Jon kisses Bekah’s shoulder as she turns to face him.

“When I told you I didn’t have a passport you said what if I got hurt at Worlds or something? What do you mean?” She pulls back from his chest to look deep into his chocolate eyes.

“I just mean if something serious would happen to me on the ice I would hope you would come be by my side.” Jon winces.

“Oh! Have you ever gotten hurt playing?” Bekah takes a mental inventory of anything noticeable on his body.

“It comes with the sport Beks, but yes, puck to the face and 50 stitches.” Bekah’s fingers dance over the scar above his lip.

“This?” She whispers and he nods. “What else?” She kisses his lips but more the scar then settled back to listen.

“I am not sure I would have played game 7 in the Stanley Cup finals in 10. I rehabbed my damn knee all summer.” She reaches down absentmindedly and rubs his leg. “I was a dumbass and not honest about a concussion in 12. Then in 13...”  Jon mumbles taking in how Bekah is processing the information.  “I didn’t even finish the regular season, um, 14 and honestly the list goes on Babe. It’s hockey. I rehab, listen to my body and learn.” Jon’s voice is just above a whisper as he thinks about all his injuries.

“I cannot even imagine.” Bekah kisses his chest and he groans. “You would never know your body has gone through so much.” She smirks as she kisses up his collarbone, to his Adam’s apple that bobs under her touch. “I don’t ever want to see you hurt.” Bekah bites as Jon’s ear and rolls him onto his back.

“I hope you never have to Beks.” His hands slide down her body to rest her hips. Without speaking Jon lifts her up and lowers Bekah onto his length and sits up. She wraps her legs around his as their lips meet. The slightest movements encouraged with moans and words of affirmation. It is slow but sensual as Jon thrusts up into Bekah as she rolls her hips into him. Each lost in the way the other is making them feel. Both finding their highs crash over them again in unison. Their bodies fluidly moving together not knowing where one started and the other ended.

“Beks.” Jon whispers kissing her shoulder then moved both their bodies so he can wrap his arms her while leaning against the head board.

“Yes, Tae?” She looks up to see his soft smile and warm brown eyes.

“Call us whatever you want but that, Bekah, is definitely making love.” His lips catch hers again in a soft meaningful kiss.

[lunarrwolf]

black butterflies [colby brock]

fandom: sam and colby/traphouse

pairing: colby x self

word count: 1,963

part(s): one

summary: after a prank gone wrong, colby and his friends meet another youtuber during her meet and greet in hopes it will cheer her up

A/N: this is a self-insert because it’s a fic that was started for my own personal pleasure. it was supposed to be shared last year on my fan account after a poll was done but never was bc i ended up not feeling ready to do so. i figured since i‘m ready to share it now, it would be best to do it here since it’s pretty detailed

ONE

“What’s up guys?! It’s your girl Kirsy here, and today we’re going to be entering Freetown State Forest. Otherwise known as The Cursed Forest of Massachusetts.” The girl looked into her camera brightly, the excitement of finally being able to explore her home state’s most bizarre places setting in as she recorded.

“Wait - cursed? You didn’t say anything about that.” Her best friend and roommate exclaimed, red locks shaking as quickly as her head was. Casey had been interrupted during a well credited movie of theirs when her friend decided she wanted to go out and take advantage of the fact that neither of them had any plans for the weekend. And as usual in their two bedroom home, no morning schedules meant the freedom to explore the best-worst possible places and capture it all on film for both social network and personal use.

“Didn’t I?” Kirsy chimed, turning the camera toward her roommate who only glanced into the object before shooting her friend the middle finger. She laughed and followed the retreating figure toward the path that would eventually lead them into the actual forest. It was a widened road of dirt and rocks, causing the two of them to nearly trip every so often. The sun was just beginning to set, so the scenery on the other side of the camera was something the green haired girl was glad she was able to capture as she filmed. They continued to walk down the barren path for about forty-five minutes - trees starting to surround them after a half hour - and by then the sun had set quickly without notice and the night began. She could hear Casey muttering about how the place was significantly creepier, and an idea popped into her head. She turned the camera to herself and glanced up to make sure no attention was being brought to her before looking into the lens. “So we’ve been walking for nearly an hour. Casey is already kind of freaked out because of how dark it is, so as her best friend I thought it would be fun to do a little prank on her.”

“What are you doing?” She looked up to meet the narrowed eyes of the redhead that caught her speaking lowly to the camera.

Casey’s eyes didn’t falter from their current state as she continued to glare at the other girl. “Kirsy, I swear if you’re planning something-”

Kirsy scoffed, “What would I be planning out here? Your murder? No thanks - too much work.” She finished off, laughing lightly at the expression she received before the girl with reddish brown locks turned back to survey their surroundings. Kirsy did the same thing for the following ten minutes of their walk. The only sounds they heard so far were forest animals and the wind rustling through the loose leaves of the trees. There was the occasional crunch or branch snapping, which unnerved both of the girls until they would see some small critter scattering to another bush or inside a hole somewhere. She really wanted to pull a practical joke on her friend after not being able to do one on her the whole month she’d been gone on a trip prior to this night. It seemed to be quiet enough to where she wouldn’t really suspect a thing. As long as comments were made from behind her, Casey wouldn’t notice.

She took the opportunity when they were nearing a fork in the pathway and jokingly said something about the atmosphere of the place that would make her friend give her a knowing look. And that was just what happened. However, when Casey turned around, the main star of the channel the video would be posted on was nowhere to be seen. She turned in a full circle slowly, being even more aware and extremely careful where she stepped so she wouldn’t disrupt the sudden silence of the area. “Kirsy.. Kirsy.” She hissed out, moving toward the edge of the path. “I swear to god if this is one of your pranks-” A twig snapped from directly beside her once she got to the natural line that separated a way back to civilization from unpredictable darkness. Her heart was pounding, and tears were springing in her eyes. It had been too long of a time since her last appearance in one of her friend’s scary videos; she forgot how frightening things could get within minutes or hours of arriving somewhere.

There was an obnoxiously loud rustling coming from the same direction, and she approached the bushes to her right cautiously. Reaching a reluctant arm out, she started to move stuff away from her so she could peer behind the plant. As her face got closer, someone jumped out and screamed a scream that was deadly enough to be included in a horror film. “Shit!” Casey jumped back, almost falling to the ground if she hadn’t been able to balance herself.

She glared up at the girl who was trying hard to hold on to the camera as she held her stomach in laughter. “Holy crap, you should’ve seen your face!”

“Dude. What the fuck!” Casey stood back up and snatched the camera away from her friend, marching away as she ignored the calls of the hysterical girl running to catch up.

-

A small group of friends sat on the leather couch in the living room, watching a fellow YouTuber explore a haunted forest with only one other person. It was entertaining to say the least - the amount of times the media influencer messed with her friend was endless, and it only got better when payback would be put into order. One of the darker haired males shook his head, a smile on his face as he shared an amused look with his friends. “I need to marry this girl.”

“Marry who?”

Brennen looked up to see a brunette enter from upstairs, looking at the group of them with curiosity written all over their faces. “Kirsy, dude. Not only is she rocking the new hair, but she obviously knows how to have fun.” Colby didn’t hesitate to join the others on the couch once he heard the name. She was very well known in their industry; a skyrocketing vlogger who stuck to the same several categories of videos and never failed to deliver quality content. She was known to go above and beyond for her fans after having been one herself for years before deciding to dive into the world of explorations. At a recent milestone of 500,000 subscribers, she not only released new merch, she also scheduled a last minute meet and greet that had the sidewalks and almost half of the central park of Boston flooded with local fans of hers. She was someone the members and friends of the trap house admired, as she wasn’t afraid to be herself even when others put her down and criticized the way she behaved on camera.

“Guys, check it out. She added something at the end of this.” Jake brought the guys’ attention back to the computer from their phones. She wasn’t smiling and didn’t hold a bright aura like she usually did when adding bits recorded after her adventures. When she spoke it sounded normal, but after having watched her for the past three years, the boys knew when something was off. They watched the girl give the lens a wry smile before clearing her throat, glancing away as she dove right into the point of the additional bit.

“So this part was recorded a couple of nights after we went into the forest. Casey hasn’t been with me since we got back.” She started off. “I did realize after the fact that she was genuinely mad at me, and I do feel really bad about it. She’d been gone for a month before then. Which meant she didn’t have to deal with abandoned houses, restless spirits, or me and my stupidity - so she wasn’t prepared to be brought back into the swing of things so quickly. I take full responsibility for any actual fear I caused her, and I want to apologize for doing this to her right as she got back from what I know was a good, relaxing trip for her. I did apologize off camera as soon as I caught up with her and she did say she forgave me. However, she uh- she won’t be in videos anymore. And I’m going to be honest with you guys...” She trailed off, and Colby’s heart lurched when he noticed the glossiness in her eyes, “I don’t know where our friendship stands. We know each other’s limits, and while I didn’t go too far, I think she just got tired of me doing all of this. So... yeah.” She gave a dry chuckle, tugging at the end of her sleeves.

“Damn.. she must be crushed right now.” Mike commented, glancing between his friends as they all gave their agreements.

“I can’t even imagine possibly losing you guys.” Sam added.

“And over a prank - Casey’s pretty cold.” Corey brought in, changing his position on the couch and leaning forward when the girl began to speak again.

“Anyway, I’m sure you guys didn’t keep watching just to see me get all emotional. So on to the good news!” The green haired girl continued, clapping her hands together and smiling brightly at the camera as if nothing happened. Still, they could see the look in her eyes, and it was unsettling to see the otherwise outgoing Dominican that way. “I'll be going to Los Angeles in a few days on business, and am happy to announce that I'll also be having a meetup at Santa Monica Pier. I haven't set the exact date in case my schedule goes out of whack, but I will be bringing along someone special. I expect that our family's policy of acceptance will be applied to him.”

“Wait wait wait - my girl's got a man?”

Mike rolled his eyes, smirking at Brennen. “If she was yours, wouldn't she know you exist?”

There was a short amount of silence while the targeted guy looked over with a playfully offended look on his face. “That was cold.” The guys laughed and chuckled, but deep down they still felt bad about what they just heard. The ginger had been by the brunette's side since the start of the channel. Though Casey was mostly the support and a guest in abandoned vlogs and some other types of videos, she would speak out as her friend's defense and help out in any way she could. Some would have figured that a month off would have her ecstatic in going back into working with her best friend. However, it sounded like that time away made her less for the type of content Kirsy had and more against it. The latter of the two must have been devastated at that moment.

“We should go meet her.” Sam announced. “Sounds like it's free - and Brennen could use an ego boost if she does know he exists.”

“You guys gotta give me a little credit here. My channel's pretty big.”

“Yes, but has she acknowledged it?” The dyed brunette questioned, laughing at the glare he received in return. It seemed like it was a unanimous agreement to take a short trip to the pier when she arrived, but everyone was vocal except for Colby. Sam shook his best friend's shoulder, and the young man blinked, switching his gaze over to the former blonde. “You alright?”

“Yeah.” He nodded, glancing back at the screen. “I agree. We should go meet her.”