#anyone but trump 2020
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RIP Mike Nesmith. He wouldâve loved Donald Trump found guilty of 34 felony charges
I hope thereâs an afterlife so Mike Nesmith can finally experience joy đ
#before anyone says âoh but Ed he was a republicanâ âMike was from Texas he wouldâve voted for Trump:(â he didnât#real life Mike Nesmith hated Donald Trump so much he didnât even want to say âfake newsâ wen talking about how he and Micky lied to the news#as Mike Nesmith said on November 7th 2020 (when Trump was voted out of office)#Whew!!!#the monkees#mike nesmith#felon Donald J Trump#american politics
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Donald J Trump, former President of the United States, was convicted today of all 34 counts of misusing campaign funds. While normally this would be a misdemeanor, it turns into a felony if the prosecution could prove Trump also broke additional laws while in the act of misusing funds.
His sentencing is July 11th. The Republican Convention is five days after that.
(In case anyone can't guess, I'm an American and I voted Biden. There is much joy in my household!)
#personal musings#american polictics#donald trump#lock him up!#do I care if i lose followers because of this?#no#honestly I don't think anyone was expecting all 34 counts to come back guilty though#especially since one of the jurors stated he got his news from Truth Social aka Trump's attempt at a Facebook/Twitter dup since he got#banned back in 2020
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#Harris threw the election the moment she refused to support an end to Palestinian genocide#and she just made worse campaign decision after worse campaign decision#if we're gonna blame anyone here#we need to be acknowledging that Trump played to what his voters wanted#and Harris didnt.#she actively alienated voters to support Israhell and this is the outcome#you cant ask Palestinian Americans to vote for genocide#and then get mad they didn't vote AFTER THEY SAID THEY WOULDNT FOR MONTHS if Harris didn't promise to end the genocide#without acknowledging that for Harris made that decision to ignore what they were telling her probably assuming it was a bluff#i did vote Harris btw#it would've kept the democracy going and given us a chance to grow third parties in the off years#but i was voting for the enemy i thought i could beat in four years.#and I'm not punching down on people who couldn't bring themselves to vote for genocide-joe's righthand man#when SHE did this#she couldve won this thing#trump win the POPULAR vote y'all#And with less votes than in 2020 as of right now#Harris would have won if she had the votes biden did in 2020#But people just didn't show up#and the dnc may never have the chance to course correct their campaign tactics bc what is democracy in America gonna look like#with a red supreme court#a red congress#and a red executive branch#except like the bloodbath at the death of democracy
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also terfs/swerfs pls meet gay and trans ppl irl there's no one who's trans/enby who says "being gay is gross and wrong" đ
#i will say this in the tags but anyway anyone who unironically wishes death or any violence on terfs is g r o s s#fellas you gotta realize that a majority of terfs have been severely traumatized by men in their life and have developed a severely-#maladapted coping mechanism and thus their worldview is shaped by that#also i'm gonna drop a hot take here too cuz i love getting canceled đ„°#liberal feminism leads to terfism#exhibit a: jk rowling spending her time on twitter pre-2020 shitting on donald trump making herself look like a girlboss#exhibit b: instagram posts with that same girlboss âmen are parasites lolâ energy#giz.txt
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I get an alert on my laptop when I have a new email, and one just popped up from my dad that said, âThis is just sad these are college studentsâ followed by a link to a youtube video. Knowing my dad, I assume this is some montage of someone asking college students basic questions about history or politics and them being absolutely clueless, and Iâm sure it is sad, college people can also be uneducated and/or stupid, but also...didnât you vote for a sentient pile of orange shit in a terrible wig?
#i'm positive he voted for trump in 2016 at least#not sure about 2020#and i don't want to know#you have to at least admit you were wrong about that before you're allowed to call anyone sad ever again
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I havenât really seen any of the more recent U.S. election news hitting tumblr yet so hereâs some updates (now edited with sources added):
Thereâs evidence of Trump cheating and interfering with the election.
Possible Russian interference.
Mail-in ballots are not being counted or ârecognizedâ in multiple (notably swing) states.
30+ bomb threats were called in and shut down polling stations on Election Day.
20+ million votes are still unaccounted for, and thatâs just to have the same voter turnout as 2020.
There was record voter turnout and new/first-time voter registration this year. We definitely should be well over the turnout in 2020.
U.S. citizens are using this site to demand, not only a recount, but a complete investigation into election fraud and interference for the reasons stated above:
Here is what I submitted as an example:
An investigation for election interference and fraud is required. We desperately need a recount or even a revote. The American people deserve the right to a free and fair election. There has been evidence unveiled of Trump cheating and committing election fraud which is illegal. There is some evidence of possible Russian interference. At least 30+ bomb threats were called in to polling places. Multiple, notably swing states, have ballots unaccounted for and voting machines not registering votes. Ballots and ballot boxes were tampered with and burned. Over 20 million votes that we know of are unaccounted for. With record turnout and new voter registration this year, there should be no possibility that there are less votes than even in the 2020 election.
Sources (working on finding more links but if anyone wants to add info, itâs appreciated):
FBI addressing Russian interference and bomb threats:
Emails released by Rachael Bellis (private account, canât share original tweet) confirming Trump committing election fraud:
Pennsylvania's Centre County officials say they are working with their ballot scanner vendor to figure out why the county's mail-in ballot data is "not being recognized when uploaded to the elections software:â
Wisconsin recount:
[ID:
Multiple screenshots and images.
The first is a screenshot with a link and information for contacting the White House directly regarding election fraud. The instructions include choosing to leave a comment to President Joe Biden directly and to select election security as the reason.
The screenshot then instructs people to include any or all of the following information in a paragraph as a comment to the president:
32 fake bomb threats were called into Democratic leaning poll places, rendering polling places closed for at least an hour.
A lot of people reporting their ballots were not counted for various reasons.
This all occurred in swing states.
This is too coincidental that these things happen and swing in his favor after months of hinting at foul play.
Directly state that an investigation for tampering, interference, fraud is required, not just a recount.
The second image is from the FBI Twitter account that reads:
The FBI is aware of bomb threats to polling locations in several states, many of which appear to originate from Russian email domains. None of the threats have been determined to be credible thus far. https://t.co/j3YfajVK1m â FBI (@FBI) November 5, 2024
The next four Gmail screenshots of an email sent to Rachael Bellis from Chris T. Spackman that read together as follows:
Dear BELLIS, RACHAEL E., The Dauphin County Board of Elections received a challenge to your absentee ballot you applied for in the November 5, 2024 General Election. The challenge argues that a provision of the Pennsylvania Election Code takes precedence over the federal Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), which requires states and counties to permit U.S. citizens who move overseas to vote by absentee ballot for federal offices based on their last U.S. residential address.
The full text of the challenge that was filed appears below this email.
You may respond to the challenge in any of the following ways:
1. Call the Bureau of Registration and Election at (717) 780-6360;
2. Email a statement to the Bureau at Election [email protected]. Any statement you submit regarding the period during which you lived in Dauphin County, any family or connections that you still have here, and why you are now residing abroad would be read into the record.
3. Appear in person at a Board of Elections hearing scheduled for Friday, November 8 at a time to be determined in the Commissioners Public Hearing Room, 4th floor of Dauphin County Administration Building, 2 S 20d St, Harrisburg, PA 17111. The meeting is also likely to be livestreamed on Facebook on the Dauphin County channel.
Sincerely,
Christopher T Spackman
TEXT OF CHALLENGE BEGINS
Dear Dauphin County Board of Elections,
I am submitting this challenge to an absentee ballot application pursuant to 25 Pa. Stat.
3146.8(f).
25 Pa. Stat. 3146.8(f) Any person challenging an application for an absentee ballot, an absentee ballot, an application for a mail-in ballot or a mail-in ballot for any of the reasons provided in this act shall deposit the sum of ten dollars ($10.00) in cash with the county board, which sum shall only be refunded if the challenge is sustained or if the challenge is withdrawn within five (5) days after the primary or election. If the challenge is dismissed by any lawful order then the deposit shall be forfeited. The county board shall deposit all deposit money in the general fund of theâŠ
The rest of the forwarded email is cut off.
The last image is a screenshot of the official statement from the Centre County, Pennsylvania Board of Commissioners released on November 6, 2024 that states:
Centre County Working with Ballot Scanner Vendor to Export Election Results.
(Bellefonte, PA) -Centre County Elections Office is working continuously to provide mail-in ballot data in order to post unofficial results.
To this point, all ballots have been scanned, including all mail-in ballots.
Centre County's Election team and IT team have identified that the data are successfully being exported from the mail-in ballot scanners, but that the data is not being recognized when uploaded to the elections software.
Centre County's Administrator, John Franek, Jr. stated, "We have not stopped working, and we will continue to work until unofficial results are posted and reported to the Pennsylvania Department of State."
As a next step, Centre County has begun working with the equipment vendor to adjust configurations to make the two systems-the mail-in ballot scanner and the elections software where data are uploaded -compatible with one another.
We will provide updates as we make progress.
/end ID]
#sources added#us politics#us election#presidential election#2024 presidential election#election interference#election integrity#election security#image described#image description in alt#image description included#image description added#described#kamala harris#kamala 2024#us news#us presidents#updated id
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A very useful thread on Bluesky:
(There is a lot more. Rather than give you all the images, I've copied the full text below.)
Meredith Rose⏠âȘ@mrose.ink⏠November 8, 2024
This is not going to be a repeat of 2016-2020. It will be better, it will be worse, but most of all it will be different. Here are things I want every single person to keep in mind as we head into round 2 of a Trump admin.
My credentials: Iâm a queer female public interest attorney working on tech policy in DC. Iâve been doing this for a decade--longer than some, not as long as others. I had to navigate three different administrations, as well as Congress, regulatory agencies, courts, and the advocacy world.
FIRST: donât let despair override your media literacy.
The left has grifters, just like every other movement. If youâre able and compelled to donate, give to orgs with established track records. Avoid giving to individuals, especially anyone who emerges overnight with a one-weird-trick âplan.â
The left is not immune to misinformation, and everyoneâEVERYONEâfalls for it sometimes, present company included. There is no shame in it. When (not if) it happens to you, you should acknowledge it; delete or retract the post to reduce the spread; and move on.
If a source consistently shares half-truths or outright misinformation, it is not trustworthy, no matter how much âtheir heart is in the right place.â Unfollow and move on.
Prediction, analysis, and reporting are three fundamentally different things. Learn to identify them for what they are. Reject attempts by amateur âanalystsâ to predict the future. They know as much as you do.
Real subject matter experts know and acknowledge their limits. Theyâre also (usually) hesitant to try and predict the future. The best frame their predictions in terms of a range of possible outcomes. Subject matter experts may also disagree with one another! It happens!
SECOND: What we know for sure about how the Trump, how he operates, and how that will impact the next four years.
Trump is a narcissist who avoids reading and doesnât care about details. He cannot be persuaded by argument or logic; heâs moved mostly by flattery, and will agree with the last person who flattered him. He can and will upend his own administrationâs work without warning, often by tweet.
As a result, most policy expertsâeven those "on his side"âdread him taking an interest in their field. Ask any Republican staffer who worked in Congress during the last administration, and most of them will confirm that their greatest fear was Trump tweeting about anything related to their work.
As such, people who are serious about their work will do everything to make it as invisible and boring-seeming as possible. This is the policy equivalent of defensive camouflage. Lots of ânormieâ work will continue in silence. (The lionâs share of tech policy ends up in this bucket.)
If you have a niche issue that you care about, now is a great time to donate to orgs that work on it. Lots of money will be funneled to big legacy orgs working on headline issues: ACLU, climate change orgs, etc. Consider sending your donations where they matter most: local, niche, established.
Trump runs his cabinet like the Apprentice. He thrives on chaos and making people compete for his approval. Not only does he not reward collaboration between his subordinates, he actively undermines it.
Moreover, everyone who works with him knows that theyâre vulnerable to being thrown under the bus at a momentâs notice, for any reason (or for no reason at all). His cabinet is going to be scorpions in a bottle. They will not be able to coordinate, for good or ill.
One scorpion can still do a lot of horrific damage. But large scale inter-agency coordination is unlikely, particularly after the first few months, by which point he will likely (prediction warning!) have gone through a handful of cabinet secretaries already.
FINALLY: The view from inside civil society heading into 2025.
In 2016, Trump was a largely unknown quantity. The left and establishment right alike wasted a lot of time trying to read tea leaves and make sense of this guy, because he was completely outside the realm of what anyone had dealt with. Thatâs not happening now.
He did us a favor by broadcasting his plans in advance (aka Project 2025). Civil society has spent the last 2.5 years strategizing around it. Weâre not starting off flat-footed.
The Biden admin did a good amount to future-proof its own achievements. Folks can speak to their own areas of expertise, but clean energy and CHIPS and Science Act (investing in domestic semiconductor production) have benefitted from huge sunk investments. That moneyâs not getting clawed back.
OVERALL TAKE-AWAYS:
It's going to suck. But civil society and the political left have some advantages we didn't have last time. We know him, we know his angles, and we know who he's bringing in--none of which we had in 2016.
We'll get through this. It will be grim, but we'll get through it.
John Cutting⏠âȘ@johncutting.bsky.socialâŹ
Thanks Meredith. I really valued your analysis over the past few years, and I think this is a reasonable, actionable framework to think about the upcoming storm
Meredith Rose⏠âȘ@mrose.inkâŹ
I really cannot overstate how much time was (necessarily) wasted in 2017 trying to figure out this guy and his influences. The fact that he's not only a known quantity, but ran the most over-studied administration in this nation's recent history, makes this a very different game.
John Cutting⏠âȘ@johncutting.bsky.socialâŹ
I bet we can weaponize his narcissism. Let's say some ghoul starts making progress with a mass deportation effort, if we start calling that ghoul that "shadow president" en masse, Trump would fire him in right away and appoint Hulk Hogan or something
âȘMeredith Rose⏠âȘ@mrose.inkâŹ
This is exactly why I don't think Musk will last very long. Trump is very clear that he's the only one in the room allowed to have an ego or any kind of brand name.
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I really have not seen a cultural amnesia like that of the trump admin in my life. What do you mean Biden has been just as bad. What do you mean what do you mean *grasping your shoulders and shaking you* what do you MEAN you HAVE TO REMEMBER it was only FOUR YEARS AGO
#I know youâre just trying to make yourself feel good or whatever but donât fucking lie like that#every single thing Biden dropped the ball on trump sent it past the earths crust#ppl just werenât talking abt Palestine in 2016-2020 bc there were too many people dying in front of our eyes#donât piss on my poor ok Iâm very clearly just saying he was worse. Iâm not saying something positive abt anyone here
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There's a ton of shitty things that are also done to people who vote by mail (i.e. college students) I used to be a resident assistant responsible for the well being of the dorm floor I lived on and during voting time we were scrambling. And I don't mean like the political clubs or any kind of activism I mean like finding someone who could legally witness you vote, getting ballots notarized, even the simple issue of paying to mail the ballot back. aka asking college kids on a college campus to own stamps, because the government, unlike Discover and Chase, can't afford a prepaid envelope (really they just want to make this process harder)
Then there's the issue of ensuring the ballot got accepted. A signature can be declared fraudulent very easily and if you ever asked a college kid to sign a piece of paper they will do it 5 different ways (I still do). That's why places like ballotpedia.org that can direct you to your state's ballot status web page are helpful.
But yeah Penzey's spices sells both excellent spices and an excellent newsletter
Buddy, when racist cunts illegally prevented me from registering to vote by just refusing to accept my papers, I PROMISE YOU shitty guilt trip memes about my inability to vote made everything worse.
You know what ACTUALLY helped?
More than every passive aggressive shit for brains on this website telling me I deserve to me racially harassed for not giving Democrats my soul?
A fucking email from a fucking HERBS AND SPICES STORE that unlike you wretched cunts ACTUALLY HAD VOTER REGISTRATION HELPLINES IN IT.
Every time one of you godforsaken freaks tells me to 'get out and vote' like its cutely trivial and didn't take months of desperate phone calls just to register (IF my registration even WORKED THIS TIME).
If you, like me, are struggling with registration or poll access, try contacting your STATE board of elections.
Request that they send you TWO copies of their registration guidelines. Collect any documents listed in them.
Then, contact your LOCAL board. Tell them you would like to register IN PERSON IF POSSIBLE.
Bring your documents and the two copies of the guideline AND a working cell phone.
If you get ANY trouble AT ALL tell the local person you will call the state board to confirm their registration requirements. Be polite, but do not leave. Put the phone on speaker.
Most of the time, the local person who is doing Actual Serious Federal And State Crimes will give up at that point. If not, the person at the state board will generally outrank and overrule the local one.
Make a note of the names of both the local and state official.
Then, and this is the most important part:
CONFIRM YOUR REGISTRATION WAS FILED.
It may take a day or two for your registration to appear.
Unfortunately, if it's been a week, you're going to have to repeat the process.
Take the names you noted previously, and contact the state board again. Report that these people denied you registration on this day, in spite of you providing these documents, then list all the required papers you collected.
The person at the state SHOULD be able to direct you from there, but the process varies hugely by state.
Good luck to you all.
#the owner looked at 2020 and decided#capitalism would be tested#he came out against Trump and COVID-19 denial#sent out newletters about voting#declared that anyone who didn't like his view could stop giving him money at any point#his sales jumped during the pandemic and have stayed high#all the haters can stew with their weak ass imitation vanilla#voting#democracy
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the american voting system is NOT EQUIPPED to support a 3rd party without ranked choice voting. and until we get RCV, it's one or the other. and it WILL be one or the other.
a lot of 3rd party candidates sound great, but they do not have a realistic chance at winning. be realistic. you know who does have a chance at winning? the household names, trump or harris.
splitting the vote by going 3rd party is what made trump happen in 2016, it was hillary clinton's downfall. it was USED by state sponsored internet trolls to spread propaganda, destabilize and divide the left. it was endorsed by trump himself, he tried it in 2020 too, and he's doing it again now because he knows it might be the only chance he has at winning.
be VERY wary of anyone telling you vote 3rd party. it's trump or harris. it won't be stein, de la cruz, or sherman, or fucking anybody else ive never heard of, because nobody is talking about independent candidates, and EVERYONE is talking about trump and harris.
it will be trump or harris for president, and it will be trump if you vote 3rd party. and ill tell you as an anarchist, i would rather have kamala harris and all her flaws in office over the fascist donald trump who would see me and my queer siblings and my friends and family of color dead.
do not split the fucking vote.
#kamala harris#joe biden#claudia de la cruz#jill stein#jasmine sherman#independent candidate#3rd party voting#politics#american politics#us politics
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People who try to analyze what happened on Tumblr on November 5th, 2020, often really overstate how much it was actually âaboutâ Supernatural. As someone who has never been in the supernatural fandom ever but dID join in on the hysterical destielpostingâit was really more about the stress of the pandemic and the 2020 presidential election.
The two biggest Youtubers Iâve seen try to dissect âwhat happened that November 5thâ in video essays both werenât Americanâ- and I think that explains why they both tried to explain the hysteria primarily via analyzing the Supernatural fandom/the original show, rather than through the lens of the election. And while those videos are cool, valid, informational, and make lots of really well-considered interesting pointsâ I can tell you that me and almost all my mutuals had literally no knowledge or interest in the fact that âoh supernatural had made nods at the ship in the past but the creators were adamant that I wouldnât be canonâ or etc etc etc etc. the first time I learned about any of that context was way later, watching videos where people claimed that fandom history context (that I did not know anything about) was the actual reason for the hysteria.
But the reality is that people latched on to the Destiel stuff because it was a piece of big useless inane zero-stakes fandom news in a time when we were desperately waiting for serious high stakes election news. We were latching onto a âpositive â piece of inane stupid fandom news in a time of great stress, with all the desperation of a drowning man who latches onto whatever piece of wood will keep him afloat.
The core of the hysteria was that Americans (who make up a huge chunk of tumblrâs userbase) were currently glued to their laptops watching the live presidential election vote counts come in. These vote counts were taking an extended amount of time due to the pandemic causing high numbers of mail-in ballots, resulting in a constant state of Election Day Stress for multiple days straight.
This was also during the height of the Pandemic. People had predicted Trumpâs presidency would be bad; no one had predicted it would be this apocalyptically bad. No one had predicted pandemics and lockdowns and hospitals overflowing with bodybags. remember Trump spreading Covid lies and conspiracies?? There were so many Qanon conspiracies about democrats being Satanic child traffickers who had to be put to death, and coup threats were mounting from the right wing side. It seemed like this election was a choice between âcentrist democratâ and âapocalyptic right wing conspiracy theory authoritarianism,â in the midst of pandemic conditions that people feared would never ever improveâ and it seemed like a close election.
Another major point was that Trump voters were more likely to be antimaskers/Covid deniers, while Biden voters were more likely to take the pandemic seriouslyâ so Biden voters were more likely to send in mail-in ballots instead of risking the in-person voting crowds, which meant their ballots would take much longer to count. And so, in many state electoral vote counts, it would initially seem like Trump was very far in the leadâ only for Biden to slooooowly build up an agonizingly small lead as the mail in ballots came in, and then defeat Trump at the very end.
So youâre just watching these news sites giving live election updates, refreshing the page every 2 minutes to see if youâre going to live under a spineless centrist democrat or a literal Qanon Dictatorship. And then you go on tumblr to distract yourself, and thereâs more election posting, and more agonizing over the votes, and more stress and despairâ-
And then itâs been days and weâre right at the crucial tipping point where itâs anyoneâs game and the next few hours will determine whether Trump will win, so you need to keep your eye on the vote count, because the next hours will determine the future of the pandemic and your country and your plans for your entire lifeâ
And then stupid Destiel becomes canon! And it becomes canon in the silliest way possible!
If Destiel had become canon at any other time, it would have been a big goofy tumblr celebration? But we wouldnât have gotten the insane explosion of hysterical interaction.
The entire core of it was the contrast between the inane meaningless stupidity of fandom news vs the actual stressful election news you wanted to hear! It really is best conveyed in that meme where Castiel says âI love youâ and Dean indifferently responds with a piece of important election news.
Itâs about the contrast between the low-stakes inanity of fandom and the massive life-destroying stakes of a terrifying election. There really was no reason it had be Supernatural specifically, except that Supernatural was a thing everyone knew basic things about from dashboard osmosisâ it couldâve been any other equally huge silly fandom ship news about a ship everyone *knew of* but might not necessarily be invested in (ex. Stucky becoming canon, Johnlock becoming canon, Kirk/Spock becoming more canon somehow, etc etc etc.)
I think itâs true that people who werenât paying agonizingly close attention to the American election news got swept up in it, and that non American Supernatural fans also were extremely excited for purely fandom reasons â but the entire reason it blew up to an unprecedented degree was because of that core of stressed out terrified Americans glued to their computers watching election results and suddenly receiving stupid fandom news instead, and deciding to just hysterically parodically hyper-celebrate this absurd useless zero-stakes news.
I think it was also all elevated by the fact that, as I said before, this happened at the crucial âtipping pointâ of the election where the next few hours would determine the winner. The fact that Biden began to slowly develop a lead in the hours after made it feel, hysterically, as if the hours after Destiel became canon was somehow the turning point where he began to win; so celebrating Destiel felt like celebrating that slow turn towards victory.
The tl,dr is that itâs so important to Remember the Fifth of November âŠ..in preparation the inevitable hysteria that will happen in the presidential election on November 5th of next year. XD. Personally Iâm rooting for Johnlock or Frodo/Sam to somehow become canon in the eleventh hour right before the democrats win
#November 5th#november 5 2020#the fifth of november#just a random ramble#November 5th 2020 is such an important day to me#it really is a holiday#but it does confuse me when I see people analyzing it primarily as a supernatural thing#instead of a âhysteria over an election reaches a breaking point when inane zero stakes fandom news comes out and we all latch onto itâthing#but yeah!!#this is my personal essay out of love for the holiday
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âSo, why did we do Stop the Steal? Why did did anyone go to Jan. 6? Why did any one go to jail? ... It would have been good to know that before 1,600 people got charged," Fuentes said on his podcast, referring to the criminal charges for those who invaded and ransacked the Capitol. "It wouldâve been good to know that before (I) had all my money frozen, put on a no-fly list, banned from everything, lost all my bank and payment processing.â
So this is what the best kind of schadenfreude feels like.
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hi, hopefully this isnt a stupid question -- this is only my second election i'm voting in, and i'm a little confused about results. is it actually confirmed that trump has won, or is it just almost certain based on the counted votes? bc i know that provisional ballots (like mine) probably arent immediately counted, and there was that thing about votes needing to be verified because of signatures, plus to my knowledge the electoral college doesnt vote til december? i'm probably just grasping at an infinitesimal chance of things not being shit, but also i do actually want to understand and google is not helping :( if you can't explain no worries, you just seem to be knowledgable & willing to answer questions haha
This is absolutely not a stupid question.
So everything is currently pointing at what is most likely, not at what is 100% certain, but it's like 99% certain. There are still votes being counted, but in the states where the election has been called it has been called either because enough of the ballots have been counted that the remaining count wouldn't change the results, or that the area is historically so strongly in favor of one party that it's exceptionally unlikely that they'd flip the other way (for example, they're still counting california's ballots but you're more likely to get struck by lightning five times today than california is to flip red in this election). The places that have not yet been called do not have enough electoral votes for Harris to win the election.
The electoral college is exceedingly unlikely to flip their votes against the state/district vote; "Faithless electors" is the term for members of the electoral college who would vote against the vote they are committed to for their region. It was something discussed in both the 2016 election and the 2020 election and flipping the electoral college without winning the election was the motivation behind J6. As shitty and bullshit as I think the electoral college is, if you're going to have one and you're going to have the rule of law, you can't hope for faithless electors because what you're hoping for at that point is that the people representing you are acting directly against the choice of the voters.
I want you to listen to me. I have been voting in presidential elections since 2004. Presidential elections always suck. Who the president is does matter, and does impact your life, but you genuinely do not have a ton of influence over that so you can't let it throw you into despair and inaction, because we should be active and political and protesting the wrongs of the world even if your favored political party wins. Vote in local elections, work with your local community, and if your local community sucks too, work with online communities to both give and get support.
Whenever something like this happens, people pass around the Mr. Rogers quote about looking to the helpers. I like that quote. I think it's good, I think it's hopeful, I think it helps! But I also think that sometimes it's even more effective if you look for how to help. Who are you the most scared for after this election? Who are you worried about in your community or among your friends? What can you do that might make their life easier? What can you do to protect people like that in your community? What don't you know that might make you better prepared to help them in the future?
One thing that I think is a fantastic way to prepare to help is to either begin or continue learning a language that you don't know. I am working hard on my Spanish because I live in California and there are a ton of Spanish speakers here who I might be able to help. Is it directly aiding anyone right at this second that I'm practicing conjugation? No. But it might help someone who is being harassed by a cop, or who is unhoused and needs help, or who is being abused by an employer at some point in the future, and I can get myself ready to help. Learn how to use naloxone and pick up up an inhaler; you might not need it now, but it'll make you ready to help someone who does need it. Order free covid tests every chance you get, even if you don't need them, because then you can give them out to people who do need them. Plan B has a multi-year shelf life. Pick some up so that you've got some on hand if someone needs it.
Maybe there's nothing you can do right at this exact second (though if you are able to donate to gender affirmation fundraisers, border kindness, abortion funds, bail funds, etc., you can absolutely do that), but you can get ready to help someone who will need you someday.
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Stuff about American election night that you should know:
Weâre one week out! Crazy. So I know too much about US politics because I explain this for money, so I figured it might be helpful to talk a bit about what we should expect from election night. If you're not American, are new to our insane election system, or are anxious about what's happening next week, here's the deal with next Tuesday:
1. Most important thing: Do NOT expect to know the winner on election night. Different states have different laws about when they can start counting early/mail-in votes, which often slows down reporting time.
2020 took until the Saturday after to call because of the high mail-in vote count due to Covid, and while that isn't happening this time, it'll take longer than 2016, 2012, or 2008 because the polls are predicting that this one's going to be a lot closer than those. Consider just going to bed instead of staying up for the results.
2. Because of the Electoral College, popular vote doesn't matter as much as who wins each individual state does. Every state has a certain amount of electoral votes based on population, whoever wins a state gets all their votes, whoever gets to 270/538 wins. We know how most states are going to vote. The Electoral College puts the election in the hands of 7 "swing" states that could go either way. This time, that's Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. These are the states to watch. Here's the map:
3. No one will know anything until polls close and states start reporting results. Doomscrolling is kind of pointless anyways, but it's especially pointless before 7pm. here's a map of closure times:
4. Data will shift throughout the night. Rural counties report results first because fewer people live there. This means the earlier you check, the more conservative the state maps might look. Do not look at the election results for any state with less than 90% reporting and freak out, especially if the state hasn't been called (deemed mathematically impossible for the other candidate to win) by multiple news outlets.
5. Voter fraud happens way less than you think it does. Pretty much never, actually. One study claims you're more likely to get struck by lightning than you are to witness actual, impersonation-based voter fraud in a modern US election. Be extremely skeptical of any voter fraud claims you might see.
6. Avoid getting news from social media accounts that aren't news outlets. There's a lot of disinformation out there, especially as AI/Deepfake tech is getting worse. Fact-check everything you might see. Anyone can make a destiel meme about the election. make sure it's true before you reblog it.
7. The electoral college sucks shit and does allow for a 269-269 vote tie. In this case, it goes to the House of Representatives, who are majority-Republican and will pick Trump. Some states might be within 1% (like 49.3%-49.7%) and candidates can demand recounts, which might delay official results by weeks or months. It HAS to be over by mid- December when the Electoral College officially votes.
8. take care of yourselves. if we're not going to know on election night, you may as well power down your phone and go to bed at a reasonable hour.
#Linked a bunch of articles throughout if you want more info.#us politics#election 2024#i am not looking forward to it. but the only way out is through.
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at this point i will fully just be blocking anyone who says they're voting third party idk how to get it into your brains that by voting third party YOU ARE VOTING FOR DONALD TRUMP. if he wins, you're not getting another chance to vote, you're not getting another election, because he WILL become the dictator. he has smart people behind him, horrible people, but people who know what they're doing and know how to manipulate laws and twist them in ways where trump can do whatever he wants.
if you are voting third party, you are taking away our one chance at winning this thing.
kamala harris is a good candidate. she is the most pro-palestinian candidate we are EVER going to get who actually has a shot at winning this thing. she's a black and south-asian woman who understand the struggles that minorities face and does her best to fix them. she is smart, she is pro-abortion, she is literally the most liberal candidate we will EVER HAVE who has a remote chance at winning. she has a positive stance on lgbtq+ rights and worked to make sure the gay and trans panic defense was removed. she protected children and women and people of all kinds who were sexually assaulted. she made it so that children who were SEX TRAFFICKED wouldn't be prosecuted for BEING TRAFFICKED.
she is a good candidate. hell, she's a GREAT candidate. she's leagues better than biden, at this point i honestly don't know what you all are hoping for. we are never going to get the hyper-liberal, massively far left candidate some of you seem to be hoping for. that's just not a possibility: this is politics. you can't appeal to that tiny corner of the population and still hope to win. i wish you could, but that's just now how it works at this moment in time. kamala harris might be the best presidential candidate in the history of the united states.
and even if she wasn't: have you forgotten what 2016-2020 was like?! have you forgotten who we're fighting against?! because donald trump is a nightmare scenario. he is literally the opposite of everything that liberals and far-left people like myself stand for. when bush was running against al gore, the only reason that there was even a supreme court case that appointed bush was because too many people voted third party. you can't do that shit. i wish you could, i wish we had more options, but we just fucking don't.
so, yeah: come november, go out and vote, and when you do, vote for kamala harris. vote for her so we don't lose everything that we as liberals are fighting for, vote for her for those of us who are too young, vote for her for the best-case scenario that the palestinian people will ever have in this current political climate.
please. please, please vote harris. it's the only option atp.
(i will not be doing discourse in the replies or reblogs. don't even try it.)
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Harris: destiel is BRAT đđ
Trump: these GAY ANGELS are taking over our television, gayer than any gay angels that existed before in the history of anything. yes that's right ladies and gentlemen, I've seen it myself
Walz: Oh yes, Destiel. Had a beer with him in college. Great guy
Vance: anyone know where I can buy the cushions from the supernatural car, specifically the ones jensen ackles sat on. no specific reasons
RFK Jr: On March 10th 2020 I threw a large rock into the engine of Jared Padalecki's private jet
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