#and voter engagement is key

[poppinelle]

It’s very telling that all of the Democratic fundraisers are still using images of Obama in their solicitations.

[qqueenofhades]

Look, I know things are rough out there, and critical thinking skills, especially on social media, are still, uh. Questionable (to say the least). But credit where credit is due, because I have also seen (to a degree I did not see in the last two major presidential elections, 2016 and 2020) the following things, a lot:

General hype posts for voting/democracy/Kamala Harris/Democrats (and even before Biden dropped out, a lot of hype posts for him too);

Blockbuster engagement with my recent pro-voting/pro-blue/pro-Kamala posts, to the point where I had to turn off notifications not because there was fuckery happening in my notes (as had OFTEN been the case before) but because I simply couldn't keep up;

Lots of high-note (10k+) posts regularly crossing my dash, written to cater to every kind of leftist/liberal/blue-leaning voter, encouraging and exhorting them to vote no matter what;

Information about Project 2025 and Republican extremism;

Forceful corrections of misinformation about Kamala's record;

Comparisons of Trump and Kamala on key issues;

Mince-no-words callouts of Trump and Republican fascism;

A tutorial!!! On how to identify an obvious psy-op anti-voting blog!!! And encouraging people to do the same/block/report!!

A constant stream of information about how to register to vote/check your voter registration/make sure you haven't been purged;

General slapdowns of tired old anti-voting narratives;

Whenever I put tags on political posts, the suggestions are always in the vein of "vote democrat, vote blue, vote kamala, please vote," etc, even though I have not used them all, indicating that those are the site-wide popular tags for similar posts;

And more!

And like. Guys. I realize there is always the task of emptying the ocean with a bucket when it comes to combating misinformation/disinformation, ESPECIALLY election misinformation/disinformation. I also tend to be grumpy, short-tempered, and cynical (and generally have zero tolerance) about its presence, just because I am old and tired and have seen this all before and know how it ended. But as I said: credit where credit is due. I have never seen all this happening on Tumblr before, and it gives me hope. Kudos.

[sashayed]

I haven't said as much about electoral politics this year as I have in previous cycles, because I am exhausted like everyone else and have nothing new or helpful to add. That is still true, so caveat lector I guess lmao!!! Happy American Election Day Fellow Sufferers!!

I have been experiencing an internal backlash the last few years to my extremely Sorkinpilled D.C. private school upbringing -- my childhood spent as a kind of convent schoolgirl in the faith of The System Is Good If We All Participate, which of course has a uhhh let's say generously a minimal engagement with the ways in which many of us are by design shut out of participating. I don't think idealism is necessarily childish, but I think MY idealism certainly has childish qualities, an undergirding of 90s feel-goodism, of civic participation as a subtle ego stroke and of voting -- although I would never have consciously put it this way -- as a way to feel superior to people who don't vote.

Lately there has bubbled up in me a sludgy, adolescent fury at this whole stupid country that has made it very very hard to feel like I should do even the bare minimum. For these people? AMERICANS? The ones that not only want Donald Trump to be president but saw what happened the first time and were like, We love this, do it again but worse? Whatever, fuckos. "I hope you people get your dearest wish and it chews you to death slowly," I may have thought.

I have also thought: why is it so controversial to ask elected officials to stop funding a genocide? Why are we treating people who make that ask, who are watching the current administration directly fund death on a mass scale and objecting to that choice, as if they are being babies and just need to get over it? How are they supposed to get over it? Why is anybody over it?

Anyway all this means that I, a known chipper door-knocker and caller of congresspeople, have been pretty low-key this current cycle. I think that is OK. I don't want to make this a big dramatic confessional about how I didn't write enough postcards or whatever. We all get exhausted and this was my turn.

But it has also been an illuminating cycle in that it's made it clear to me how much at my big age I still want politics to make me feel good, and when they don't, I still have the urge to throw a lil tantrum about it! I can get very superior and intellectual about how right-wing operatives manipulate their voters emotionally WITHOUT EVEN NOTICING that I too have been manipulated, in my case into the feeling that nonparticipation is a kind of revolutionary act.* Just absolute "I threw it on the GROUND" logic happening inside my head. "Maybe if I don't vote I will be doing Quiet Quitting, which is uhhhhh anticapitalist." I'm not a part of your system!!!

Anyway, I am trying to have self-compassion about it, and one way for me to do that is to project my internal experience onto a theoretical reader. That would be you, my imaginary friend who clicked on this post for some reason even though you have already decided not to vote! I just want to tell you that I am more sympathetic to your point of view than I have ever been in my whole life, and I'm sorry I have historically been a glib, holier-than-thou asshole about it in ways that may actually have made you MORE resistant to civic participation.

And you're right: it doesn't make that big a difference whether I personally vote or not, or whether you do. But if there are hundreds of us, and I think there are, then each of those people individually do starts to matter.

I guess I would humbly request that you and I both pay attention to what people who need help are actually asking for. I would ask that we both notice who wins when we abdicate this single responsibility. I would remind us both that participating in the electoral process is not some kind of weird either-or with participating in decentralized community building and mutual aid, and the best people we know do both. Isn't it interesting that somehow, insidiously, without even consciously becoming aware of this belief, we have started to think that you can only do one or the other? Who is telling us that story? Who does it serve?

Anyway. I took the stupid 90 minute round trip to my polling place which was VERY hot for some reason and I stood in the stupid line and some babies waved at me and I cast my vote for Kamala Harris and I'm glad I did it in the same way I'm glad after I do the dishes or take a stupid shower. Doing work doesn't always feel like anything. I also saw a really wonderful small black and white dog that I thought was a cat on a leash. I would not have seen that dog if I hadn't gone to vote. So politics can still make you feel good!!!

*I mean all this analysis is cute and everything BUT ALSO i did switch antidepressants twice in the last year, an astonishingly grueling process that almost made me [affect the trout population]. Could these things be related? hmmmmmmm, don't understand the question, won't respond to it.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

A.B. Stoddard at The Bulwark:

1. Trump’s Not Taking the L. . .

The last two weeks—the unveiling of the Harris-Walz ticket, and Kamala Harris’s surge in the polls—feels like some surreal dream state. Everything has changed. Have you noticed Harris has pushed Donald Trump right out of the comfy lead he’s held for an entire year? He’s noticed. From FiveThirtyEight to RealClearPolitics—pick your polling average—they all now show Harris out in front after only two and a half weeks.

Trump is no longer on track to win the election—which he has been for more than six straight months. Instead, the momentum, money, voter registration, volunteering, grassroots organizing, polling, and online engagement all favor the Democrats and it looks now like Trump could easily lose. But that won’t happen, because Trump doesn’t lose. He beat Joe Biden in 2020—remember? So if he’s not the rightful victor on November 5, an entire army of Republicans is ready to block certification of the election at the local level. No need to worry about mayhem on January 6, 2025 when Congress meets in joint session; the election deniers plan to stop a result right away if it looks like Harris is winning. Their goal: Refuse to certify anywhere—even a county that Trump won—and prevent certification in that state, which prevents certification of the presidential election. A Harris victory could become a nightmare.

An investigation by Rolling Stone identified “in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania . . . at least 70 pro-Trump election conspiracists currently working as county election officials who have questioned the validity of elections or delayed or refused to certify results.” Of those 70, 22 of them already have “refused or delayed certification” in recent past elections. Nationwide, Republicans have refused to certify results at least 25 times since 2020, in eight states—the most in Georgia.

The article describes social media posts from the zealots who have infiltrated election administration as showing “unapologetic belief in Trump’s election lies, support for political violence, themes of Christian nationalism, and controversial race-based views.” There are more than enough such individuals in these key posts to bring us to a constitutional crisis. “I think we are going to see mass refusals to certify the election” in November, Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias told Rolling Stone. “Everything we are seeing about this election is that the other side is more organized, more ruthless, and more prepared.” Sit with that.

Then there is this. Trump’s self-destructive attacks on Georgia’s popular governor made the headlines from his Atlanta rally last Saturday, but he also singled out for praise three little-known Georgians—Janice Johnston, Rick Jeffares, and Janelle King—calling them “pitbulls fighting for honesty, transparency, and victory.” Who are Johnston, Jeffares, and King? They are three of the five members of Georgia’s State Election Board. Three days after Trump’s speech, this past Tuesday, those three Republicans approved a new rule requiring a “reasonable inquiry” prior to election certification that—while vague and undefined—could be exploited to delay certification and threaten the statewide election certification deadline of November 22.

The law in Georgia, where Trump and fourteen1 others are charged with plotting to overturn the 2020 election result, requires county election boards to certify results “not later than 5:00 P.M. on the Monday following the date on which such election was held”—so this year, by the evening of November 11. The secretary of state is then to certify the statewide results “not later than 5:00 P.M. on the seventeenth day” after the election, so November 22.

Across the country, the November election results will have to be certified in more than 3,000 counties, and all state results must be final by the time electors meet in each state on December 17. Members of county election boards are not tasked with resolving election issues; certification is mandatory and “ministerial,” not discretionary. Disputes over ballot issues are separate from the certification process—investigated and adjudicated by district attorneys, state election boards, and in court. Election experts say the new rule could disrupt the entire process across the state by allowing local partisans to reject results. And Georgia appears to be at the center of Trump’s plans. Casting doubt on Fulton County, which makes up the bulk of Democratic votes in the state, will help him claim he won the Peach State as the rest of the results come in red.

But even without an explicitly permitted “inquiry” like the new Georgia rule provides, Republicans in other swing states still plan on acting at the county level to slow or stop certification. Because questioning the outcome at the very start of the process will create delay. Any doubt and confusion, and perhaps even violence, makes it easier to miss essential deadlines and can threaten the chance that the rightful winner prevails. Election deniers also hope that sowing chaos might prompt GOP legislatures to intervene—in Georgia, Arizona, or Wisconsin for example—a dangerous scenario I wrote about in April.

[...] It’s crucial that these plans are widely publicized. And they can be. Just like Project 2025, which was virtually unheard of and is now in the forefront of the political debate. Putting a media spotlight on this issue will force Republican officials to address what they are well aware of and are refusing to call out. Yesterday CBS News reported Biden said in his first interview since leaving the presidential race he is “not confident at all” there will be a peaceful transfer of power if Trump loses. Harris isn’t likely to talk about this in her campaign, so it’s critical that other high-profile surrogates do. President Obama, President Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and others must educate voters about the plot underway to force more public pressure and accountability on the process. Every Republican must be asked about local certification of elections, electors honoring the popular vote of their state, preventing political violence—all of it. Repeatedly. As Elias told an interviewer, there are things we can do, as citizens willing to invest some time, to take action. This isn’t a threat from abroad. This year—and likely for years to come—we will all have to continue to fight against what our fellow Americans are doing to subvert elections. Because without free elections—and facts and truth—we cannot be a free country.

A.B. Stoddard wrote in The Bulwark that Republicans will seek to cause chaos post-election to try to block certification of a potential Kamala Harris win.

[robertreich]

Does the Constitution Ban Trump from Running Again? 

Donald Trump should not be allowed on the ballot.

Section 3 of the 14th Amendment prohibits anyone who has held public office and taken an oath to protect the Constitution from holding office again if they “have engaged in insurrection” against the United States.

This key provision was enacted after the Civil War to prevent those who rose up against our democracy from ever being allowed to hold office again.

This applies to Donald Trump. He cannot again be entrusted with public office. He led an insurrection!

He refused to concede the results of the 2020 election, claiming it was stolen, even when many in his inner circle, including his own attorney general, told him it was not.

Trump then pushed state officials to change vote counts, hatched a plot to name fake electors, tried to pressure his vice president into refusing to certify the Electoral College votes, had his allies seek access to voting-machine data, and summoned his supporters to attack the capitol on January 6th to disrupt the formal recognition of the presidential election results.

And then he waited HOURS, reportedly watching the violence on TV, before telling his supporters to go home — despite pleas from his staff, Republican lawmakers, and even Fox News.

If this isn’t the behavior of an insurrectionist, I don’t know what is.

Can there be any doubt that Trump will again try to do whatever it takes to regain power, even if it’s illegal and unconstitutional?

If anything, given all the MAGA election deniers in Congress and in the states, Trump is less constrained than he was in 2020. And more power hungry.

Trump could face criminal charges for inciting an insurrection, but that’s not necessary to bar him from the ballot.

Secretaries of State and other chief election officers across the country have the power to determine whether candidates meet the qualifications for office. They have a constitutional duty to keep Trump off the ballot — based on the clear text of the U.S. Constitution.

Some might argue that voters should be able to decide whether candidates are fit for office, even if they’re dangerous. But the Constitution sets the bar for what disqualifies someone from being president. Candidates must be at least 35 years old and a natural-born U.S. citizen. And they must also not have engaged in insurrection after they previously took an oath of office to defend the Constitution.

Section 3 of the 14th Amendment has already been used to disqualify an insurrectionist from continuing to hold public office in New Mexico, with the state’s Supreme Court upholding the ruling.

This is not about partisanship. If a Democrat attempts to overthrow the government, they should not be allowed on ballots either.

Election officials must keep Donald Trump off the ballot in 2024. 

Democracy cannot survive if insurrectionists hold power in our government.

[mariacallous]

Addressing workers and volunteers at a campaign office Thursday before taking the stage at a Pittsburgh rally for Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Barack Obama called on Black voters, specifically men, to “drop excuses” and get behind the Democratic presidential nominee.

“Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that,” he said, according to The New York Times.

“Women in our lives have been getting our backs this entire time,” he added. “When we get in trouble and the system isn’t working for us, they’re the ones out there marching and protesting.”

Obama’s speech arrives amid Democratic efforts to drive turnout among Black voters for November’s election. Last month, Harris held a series of events in Wisconsin, as well as other states, to engage the key voting demographic and counteract Trump’s efforts to impress them with his own approach.

According to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll, 69% of Black voters said they are “absolutely certain to vote” in November, a statistic still lower than the 74% in June 2020.

“You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses. I���ve got a problem with that,” Obama said, noting lower enthusiasm among Black voters in this election compared with his own presidential campaign.

Black voter turnout jumped from 48.1% in 1996 to 69.1% when Obama was elected in 2008, according to The Washington Post. In his bid for reelection in 2012, turnout percentages for Black voters exceeded that of white voters for the first time in history.

[truth-has-a-liberal-bias]

The Colorado Supreme Court ruled to remove former President Donald Trump from the state’s 2024 ballot, ruling that he isn’t an eligible presidential candidate because of the 14th Amendment’s “insurrectionist ban.”

“Because he is disqualified, it would be wrongful act under the Election Code for the Colorado Secretary of State to list him as a candidate on the presidential primary ballot,” the court said.

Here are several of the key findings the court issued in its decision:

Colorado state law allows voters to challenge Trump’s eligibility under the federal constitution’s “insurrectionist ban.”

Colorado courts can enforce the ban without any action from Congress.

The insurrectionist ban applies to the presidency.

The January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol was an insurrection.

Trump “engaged in” the insurrection.

Trump’s speech “inciting the crowd” on January 6 was “not protected by the First Amendment.” [...]

[reyaint]

history of HAIQIN | part VII: transition to parliamentary monarchy

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date: october 3-4, 2024.

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Transition to Parliamentary Monarchy (1890s):

End of Absolute Monarchy:

End of Full Monarchy (1890):

By the late 19th century, mounting social unrest and pressure for greater public representation culminated in the shift from absolute monarchy to parliamentary rule. King Nerosin Vasilios, a pragmatic and reform-minded monarch, foresaw that maintaining absolute power would only fuel civil unrest. In a calculated move to preserve the monarchy’s relevance, he initiated the formation of a constitutional framework that shared governance with elected officials. This marked the end of centuries of absolute rule under the Vasilios dynasty.

Voluntary Relinquishment of Power:

In contrast to violent uprisings seen in other regions, King Nerosin Vasilios opted for a peaceful transition. He recognized that empowering a new class of elected officials would enhance national stability. He recognized the importance of a more inclusive government that reflected the desires of his people. This strategic decision reflected a broader awareness of democratic ideals, influenced by ongoing movements in Europe, and allowed the monarchy to preserve its legacy while evolving with the times. While the king still retained significant influence, major governance decisions would now be shared with the emerging political class.

Establishment of Parliament:

Bicameral Parliament (1890):

The introduction of a bicameral parliamentary system marked a significant development in Haiqin’s governance. The House of Sovereigns, comprising members of the royal family, nobles, and military leaders, retained advisory powers, ensuring the traditional elite maintained some influence. In contrast, the House of Commons consisted of elected officials representing the provinces and cities, providing the people a direct voice in government. This house represented the voice of the people and was responsible for matters such as taxation, laws, trade, and regional governance.

Roles and Responsibilities:

The distribution of legislative power was carefully balanced. While the House of Commons assumed primary responsibility for taxation and legislation, the House of Sovereigns maintained the authority to review and amend proposed laws, ensuring that aristocratic interests were not entirely sidelined. This balance reflected a compromise between tradition and modern democratic practices, allowing both social classes to participate in governance.

First Parliamentary Elections:

The landmark elections in 1891 were met with enthusiasm across the kingdom. Voter participation surged as citizens, for the first time, elected representatives to the House of Commons. This event not only marked a new chapter in Haiqin's political history but also fostered a sense of civic engagement and national identity among the populace.

Constitutional Framework:

Drafting the Constitution (1890):

The new constitution was a crucial element of this transitional period, serving as a legal framework that synthesized Haiqin's historical governance with contemporary democratic principles. It established a clear separation of powers, delineating the roles of the monarchy, parliament, and local governments.

Monarchy's Role:

Under the new constitution, the monarchy transitioned into a more ceremonial role, with its powers defined but limited. While the monarch remained influential in areas such as foreign policy and military leadership, their direct involvement in legislative matters became restricted. However, they maintained key powers such as foreign policy oversight, military leadership, and the ability to appoint certain ministers, subject to parliamentary approval. This shift reflected a modern understanding of governance while preserving the cultural significance of the monarchy.

Checks and Balances:

The newly established checks and balances were instrumental in preventing the concentration of power. The Prime Minister, elected by the House of Commons, emerged as the head of government, responsible for domestic affairs and administration. This structure encouraged accountability, requiring the monarchy and parliament to collaborate, ensuring that no single entity could unilaterally dictate national policy. The monarchy, though still revered and influential, could no longer enact laws without parliamentary approval. This new system prevented any single entity from wielding unchecked power.

Peaceful Transition:

Avoidance of Civil War: Unlike many nations undergoing similar transformations, Haiqin experienced a remarkably peaceful transition. King Nerosin’s foresight and willingness to adapt to the political landscape averted potential civil strife. Various societal factions, including military leaders and the burgeoning middle class, recognized the necessity for reform, thereby supporting the shift to parliamentary governance.

Public Reception:

The public's response to these reforms was overwhelmingly positive. The promise of greater representation invigorated citizens, many of whom had long felt disenfranchised. The monarchy's compromise fortified its standing as a revered institution, and citizens viewed this transition as a necessary evolution in their national identity.

Social Reforms and Modernization:

Education and Infrastructure:

The establishment of the parliamentary system catalyzed significant social reforms. Education systems expanded dramatically, the curriculum now included both modern subjects and Haiqin's ancient traditions, ensuring that future generations remained grounded in their cultural heritage while embracing global advancements. Schools and universities flourished, fostering a well-rounded populace prepared to navigate a rapidly changing world.

Industrialization and Economic Growth:

The late 19th century marked a period of robust industrialization for Haiqin. Factories, railroads, and ports emerged, driving economic expansion and enabling the export of textiles, steel, and artisanal crafts. Haiqin's strategic alliances with Greece, Ireland, and Scotland allowed it to thrive as a key trading partner in the region. Urban centers blossomed, giving rise to a burgeoning middle class and transforming the socio-economic landscape.

Workers' Rights:

As industrialization progressed, so did the challenges associated with labor exploitation and unsafe working conditions. The new government responded with early legislation addressing workers’ rights, regulating wages, working hours, and child labor. These measures showcased the parliament's commitment to social justice and economic equity, reflecting the growing awareness of labor rights in the industrialized world.

Provincial Reorganization and Decentralization:

Formation of the Ten Main Provinces (1892):

As part of the new parliamentary framework, Haiqin’s regional governance underwent a significant reorganization. The kingdom officially recognized ten provinces, each possessing distinct cultural and historical identities shaped by their geography and population. This shift toward decentralized governance allowed provinces greater autonomy in managing local affairs while still contributing to national decision-making.

Representation of Provinces:

With the establishment of a parliamentary system, each province secured the right to elect representatives to the House of Commons. This ensured regional voices were included in national discussions, helping to quell historical tensions between the central government and provinces that had previously felt marginalized.

Unique Provincial Identities:

Each province developed its own cultural and social identity, shaped by its unique history and geography. Some provinces embraced Greek traditions, while others maintained strong Indigenous or hybrid cultural practices. This regional diversity fostered a sense of unity among the provinces while allowing for the preservation of distinct cultural identities within the national framework. Each province had distinct regional identities shaped by their history, geography, and culture. However, with the formation of Parliament, these provinces were granted more autonomy to govern local matters, such as trade, culture, and resource management.

Regional Diversity:

The provinces, while united under a single national identity, began to develop their own unique regional traditions. This helped foster a sense of unity despite cultural differences.

Provincial Governments:

Each province established its own local council, which reported to Parliament. These councils were responsible for managing local affairs, including taxation, infrastructure, and education.

Provincial Representation in Parliament:

Local councils were established within each province, tasked with managing regional affairs such as taxation, infrastructure, and education. This governance structure empowered provinces, encouraging local engagement and increasing accountability.

Role of the Monarchy Post-Reform:

Ceremonial and Cultural Leadership:

Post-reform, the royal family’s role evolved into one of cultural and ceremonial leadership. They became symbols of national unity, heritage, and continuity. Public appearances, royal events, and festivals reinforced national pride, providing a stabilizing force during a time of rapid societal change.

Military and Diplomatic Influence:

Though no longer absolute rulers, the monarchy continued to hold influence in military affairs, especially in maintaining alliances with Greece, Ireland, and Scotland. The royal family remained active in diplomacy, representing Haiqin at international summits and serving as ambassadors for the nation's interests abroad.

[beardedmrbean]

As the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch, former President Donald Trump appears to be gaining traction with at least some undecided voters. Two of those explained their reasoning on the latest episode of the Morning Meeting podcast.

Co-hosted by veteran political journalist Mark Halperin, former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer, and political commentator Dan Turrentine, Monday's YouTube show explored why some voters who remain on the fence are now leaning toward Trump over Kamala Harris. Many of these voters cite concerns over economic instability and national security as key factors in their decision.

"Some of those undecided voters... have started to move toward Trump a little. That's why the number of undecideds is beginning to shrink," said Halperin, referencing recent poll numbers showing an improvement for Trump and explaining the shift among undecided voters.

The podcast featured insights from real voters, including Steve, a man from New Jersey, and Terry, a woman from Connecticut, with both finding themselves leaning back toward the former president as Election Day approaches. While neither expressed full support for Trump, they said they saw him as a more reliable option in uncertain times.

Steve, who voted for Trump in 2016 but did not support him in 2020, explained that his shift is driven by concerns over immigration and national security.

"It's a tough decision, but I'm leaning toward Trump," Steve said during the discussion. Although he still harbors reservations about Trump's behavior, Steve emphasized that issues like border security now take priority in his decision-making process.

Spicer, who served as Trump's first press secretary, emphasized the importance of personal persuasion in swaying undecided voters, downplaying the influence of high-profile celebrity endorsements that Harris has received over the past two months.

"The most impactful endorsement you can get is when a neighbor, a friend, a family member, or a coworker asks you to vote for someone," Spicer said.

Terry, another undecided voter from Connecticut, voiced dissatisfaction with the economy under the Biden administration. After casting a protest vote for Biden in 2020, she now feels "immediate remorse" for that decision. Her concerns focus on the financial struggles of lower-income Americans, particularly those who don't benefit from rising stock markets or retirement portfolios.

"Half of America—75 million people—do not have access to a 401(k) or a stock portfolio. We've got to help this segment... If we don't help the people without access to wealth, we're in trouble," she said.

The hosts also questioned Kamala Harris' campaign strategy as early voting continues. Halperin asked why Harris isn't doing more to engage voters in battleground states. "Why isn't she working harder? If you assume she's behind, why isn't she in three battleground states a day?" he wondered, suggesting that Harris' relatively limited schedule could be contributing to her struggles with undecided voters.

Dan Turrentine suggested that Harris' approach has been overly defensive, which may be hindering her momentum with key voter groups. "After the convention and the debate, she shifted into a defensive posture. She's been trying not to make mistakes and saying very little," the analyst said.

He also noted that Harris has focused on appealing to "soft" Republicans and specific voting blocs like Black men, rather than aggressively courting undecided voters regardless of their party affiliation or demographic.

Trump has seen encouraging signs over the last week following strong showings in several major national polls. Nate Silver, the polling guru who is closely modeling the race on his Substack, noted that, with 21 days remaining, the former president has reason to feel more optimistic about the race.

Silver's analysis indicated that Trump is gaining slight ground against Harris. His Silver Bulletin presidential model, which tracks polling data and electoral trends, showed a 0.3 percentage point shift in Trump's favor over the past week, signaling a more competitive race as the campaigns head into the final stretch.

The updated forecast reflects small but significant gains for Trump in key swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—states pivotal to both Trump's 2016 victory and his 2020 defeat. Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, are barnstorming those states this week, with multiple stops scheduled in all three over the coming days.

[politicalfeed]

What’s Next After Joe Biden Steps Down from the 2024 Elections?

The political landscape in the United States has shifted dramatically with President Joe Biden’s decision to step down from the 2024 presidential race. As the Democratic Party grapples with this unexpected development, several key questions and potential scenarios emerge about the future of the party and the upcoming election.

Immediate Reactions and Interim Leadership

Following Biden’s announcement, Vice President Kamala Harris has become the most likely interim leader of the Democratic Party. Her role as vice president positions her as a natural successor, and she has already garnered significant attention and support from various factions within the party. However, her potential candidacy will need to be officially endorsed by the Democratic National Committee (DNC).

Potential Candidates and Primaries

The race for the Democratic nomination is now wide open, with several high-profile politicians likely to throw their hats into the ring. Potential candidates include:

Kamala Harris: As the current vice president, she has a strong platform but will need to consolidate support from various party factions.

Gavin Newsom: The Governor of California has been seen as a rising star in the party, known for his progressive policies and strong leadership.

Pete Buttigieg: The Secretary of Transportation and former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has maintained a significant national profile since his 2020 presidential run.

Elizabeth Warren: The Senator from Massachusetts remains a powerful voice within the progressive wing of the party.

Amy Klobuchar: The Senator from Minnesota offers a more centrist approach that could appeal to moderate voters.

The DNC will need to organize a series of debates and primaries to allow these candidates to present their platforms and vie for the nomination.

Impact on the General Election

Biden’s decision to step aside has significant implications for the general election. The Democratic Party must quickly rally around a new candidate who can unite the party and appeal to a broad base of voters. This includes addressing concerns about Biden’s health and ensuring that the new candidate can effectively challenge the Republican nominee, presumably former President Donald Trump.

Strategic Shifts and Campaign Focus

With a new candidate, the Democratic Party may need to adjust its campaign strategies. Key issues that will likely be emphasized include:

Healthcare and Pandemic Response: Continuing Biden’s efforts in managing the COVID-19 pandemic and improving healthcare access.

Economic Recovery: Building on the current administration’s efforts to strengthen the economy and address income inequality.

Climate Change: Promoting aggressive policies to combat climate change, a central issue for many Democratic voters.

Social Justice: Ensuring that issues of racial and social justice remain at the forefront of the campaign.

Republican Response

The Republican Party will closely monitor the Democratic transition, adjusting their strategies accordingly. Trump’s campaign is likely to capitalize on the perceived instability within the Democratic Party, using it as a point of criticism. However, the Republicans will also need to address their internal challenges and unify their base.

Voter Mobilization and Engagement

The uncertainty surrounding Biden’s departure places a premium on voter mobilization and engagement. Both parties will intensify efforts to reach out to key demographics, including young voters, minorities, and independents. The importance of voter turnout cannot be overstated, especially in swing states that will determine the election’s outcome.

Conclusion

Joe Biden’s decision to step down from the 2024 election marks a significant turning point in American politics. The Democratic Party faces the urgent task of selecting a new candidate who can inspire and unite voters. Meanwhile, the Republicans will seek to exploit this transition to their advantage. As both parties navigate this evolving landscape, the 2024 election promises to be one of the most consequential in recent history, shaping the direction of the United States for years to come.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Lula to Ramp Up Election Events in Key Cities for Unprecedented Voter Engagement

Next week, Lula will support various candidates in Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Natal, and Cuiabá, focusing on key elections and alliances.

Next week, President Lula will ramp up his electoral activities in key Brazilian cities. He plans to reinaugurate the Salgado Filho Airport in Porto Alegre, where the political landscape is heating up. Will Lula’s support for local candidates make a difference in these crucial elections?

Fast Answer: President Lula is intensifying his campaign efforts in major Brazilian cities, focusing on key elections in Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, and beyond. His support for candidates like Maria do Rosário and Fuad Noman aims to strengthen the PT’s presence, despite challenges from Bolsonaro-backed opponents.

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[crazyintheeast]

Seeing you accuse people that I know, who I've been following for several years, of being psyops is actually counterproductive in whatever it is you're trying to accomplish because it makes it glaringly obvious that you're just blindly accusing everyone that disagrees with you of being a Russian propaganda bot.

And of course it’s from an anon . Look at how it’s phrased . “Several people “ Even though I have only accused the obvious Russian troll https://www.tumblr.com/decolonize-the-left who the absolute same playbook as the 2016 trolls and a random account who pretended go on a causal rant while at the same time putting in a dozens of tags with every possible variation to gain maximum coverage .

So it’s obvious that the person behind this anon is the Russian troll https://www.tumblr.com/decolonize-the-left left or probably one of his small accounts . They are trying desperately to go viral like they did in 2016 so they are deadly terrified of being exposed as the Trump agents they obviously are . So don’t fall for it . Here is a good way to spot them . If account is :

Heavily advocating for yoj to throw your vote away ones their party or to abstain from voting to “reach democrats a lesson “

Deny VERIFIED facts like the fact that the 2016 elections was so close that if their party voters had voted for Hillary in several key states she would have easily won . Same with the Gore Bush election which was one of the close sets in history and Bush won by 537 votes

They often pretend to be people of color and post a ton of progressive posts so they fit in ( Trump supporters have started copying this tactic as well . We had several republicans caught pretending to be black people )

Tags .They love posting dozens of tags to get maximum engagement while trying to pretend their posts are natural and just normal venting

They refuse to acknowledge facts , they constantly evade questions and try to redirect towards emotional responses . They don’t want you to think about how much worse things are going to be under Trump . They just don’t you to be pissed that democrats are not perfect candidates and discourage you from voting There is a huge chance they Russians trolls or undercover maga . Don’t fall for it . Don’t respond , don’t try to educate them or talk to them unless it’s to expose them for what they . They want engagement. Report them and block them

[tomorrowusa]

House Republicans may be relieved that they finally have a Speaker after 22 days of infighting. But the rest of the country should worry that there's a far right extremist second in line to the presidency. "MAGA Mike" Johnson is even more extreme than Trump on some issues.

Election denier, climate skeptic, anti-abortion: seven beliefs of new US House speaker Mike Johnson

He tried to overturn the 2020 election In the modern Republican party, supporting Donald Trump’s lie about voter fraud in his defeat by Joe Biden is hardly an outlandish position. But Johnson took it further. After the election, he voiced support for Trump’s conspiracy theory that voting machines were rigged. Later, he was one of 147 Republicans to object to results in key states, even after a pro-Trump mob attacked Congress on January 6, a riot now linked to nine deaths and hundreds of convictions. [ ... ] He was a spokesperson for a ‘hate group’ Before entering politics, Johnson worked for the Alliance Defending Freedom – designated a hate group by the Southern Law Poverty Center, which tracks US extremists. According to the SPLC, the ADF has “supported the recriminalisation of sexual acts between consenting LGBTQ+ adults in the US and criminalisation abroad; defended state-sanctioned sterilisation of trans people abroad; contended that LGBTQ+ people are more likely to engage in paedophilia; and claimed that a ‘homosexual agenda’ will destroy Christianity and society”. [ ... ] He opposes LGBTQ+ rights In state politics and at the national level, Johnson has worked to claw back gains made by LGBTQ+ Americans in their fight for equality. In 2016, as he ran for Congress, he told the Louisiana Baptist Message he had “been out on the front lines of the ‘culture war’ defending religious freedom, the sanctity of human life and biblical values, including the defense of traditional marriage, and other ideals like these when they’ve been under assault”. He has since led efforts for a national “don’t say gay” bill, regarding the teaching of LGBTQ+ issues in schools, and is also opposed to gender-affirming care for children. On Wednesday, Rev Jasmine Beach-Ferrara, executive director of the Campaign for Southern Equality, said: “Johnson has made a career out of attacking the LGBTQ+ community at every turn." His positions are out of touch with the clear majority support for LGBTQ+ equality in our country. His new leadership role is just further proof of the dangerous priorities of the GOP and the critical stakes for our democracy – and for LGBTQ+ Americans – in 2024.” [ ... ] He is stringently anti-abortion Johnson has maintained a relatively low profile in Congress but when last year the supreme court removed the right to abortion, Johnson celebrated “a historic and joyful day”. Though Dobbs v Jackson returned abortion rights to the states, Johnson has co-sponsored bills for a nationwide ban. And as he neared his position of power, footage spread of striking remarks in a House hearing. “Roe v Wade did constitutional cover to the elective killing of unborn children in America, period,” Johnson said. [ ... ] He wants to cut social security and Medicare As those comments indicate, Johnson wants to cut programs on which millions rely. Such cuts are widely regarded as a political third-rail – Trump has used the issue to attack Republican presidential rivals, saying only he will defend such benefits – but Johnson is far from alone in wanting to swing the axe. He is an advocate for ‘covenant marriage’ When he married his wife, Kelly, in 1999, the couple agreed to a “covenant” marriage: a conservative Christian idea that makes it harder to divorce. The Johnsons promoted the idea on ABC’s Good Morning America. [ ... ] He is a climate skeptic In 2017, Johnson told voters in his oil-rich home state: “The climate is changing, but the question is, is it being caused by natural cycles over the span of the Earth’s history? Or is it changing because we drive SUVs? I don’t believe in the latter. I don’t think that’s the primary driver.”

You'd really have to try hard to find somebody worse than MAGA Mike. But we're not without the power of the vote; we need to use that power every chance we get.

November 7th is Election Day in many parts of the US. Most notably...

Ohio's statewide ballot measure to restore reproductive freedom by placing a woman's right to choose in the Ohio Constitution. A YES vote on Issue 1 takes abortion out of the hands of the gerrymandered GOP legislature.

Kentucky's Democratic governor is up for re-election.

The Virginia legislature is up for election. If Republicans gain control of both chambers they will try to ban abortion; reproductive tyranny is part of the GOP agenda whenever they hold a trifecta in a state. There's also a special election to fill a vacancy for a US House seat in VA-04.

The state legislature in New Jersey is up for election.

There are judicial elections in Pennsylvania including for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. There's also a special election to fill a vacancy in the Penn House of Representatives which is currently tied 101 Democrats – 101 Republicans.

All state offices in Mississippi including governor and legislature are up for election. Surprisingly, polls show the GOP incumbent governor ahead by just 1% with 10% undecided.

Like Mississippi, all state offices in Louisiana are up for election.

Rhode Island has a special election to fill a vacancy for a US House seat in RI-01.

^^^ Those are just the highlights. There are elections of some sort in most states on November 7th.

Republicans may grumble at times, but they always turn out for elections. They have a disproportionate amount of power in the US because they vote while many of their liberal neighbors stay home or become too ideologically persnickety.

Allegedly "moderate" GOP House members ultimately fell in line and unanimously backed a far right Speaker.

Elections at all levels count. Speaker "MAGA Mike" Johnson got his start in politics in the Louisiana legislature. He is now the highest ranking GOP elected official in the US.

There's no such thing as an unimportant election. Vote in the November 7th election and actively encourage like-minded friends, family, and neighbors to do so as well.

Be A Voter - Vote Save America

[totallyclevertitlehere]

Kamala will be the nominee

See the bigger picture--the current Dem reps were there on January 6. Many stated first hand they thought their lives were in danger. The Dems know if they don't win this election, they will be dead. Not metaphorically. This is a guy who loves autocrats and Putin. Who would have Presidential Immunity. Current Democrats in office know Trump will come after them, arrest them, possibly even execute them as part of his plan to go after his political enemies.

Dems also know it's been publicly messy, trying to get Biden to drop out. But they have polling data showing that he's rapidly losing the confidence of those bellwethers in swing states like my Ma - otherwise not that informed or engaged but still CONSISTENT moderate voters who don't like Trump, but see their elderly father with dementia in Biden and Are Concerned��. They don't event need to vote Trump - all it takes is those voters staying home to throw the election his way. So Dems know they needed to pivot from Biden, and they are ready to minimize the damage done.

Now, they know it's time to unify, because the stakes are too great. Literally, this decision is life or death for any current Democratic politician.

They don't want mess. They don't want brokered convention. They DO want to take advantage of a convention that maximizes ratings; they will make this look simple; that Kamala is really the only choice, as the current VP and they will coalesce around her.

She already has some key endorsements including politicians from swing states who are quite popular with their electorate and progressives in the squad. The convention will be the chance to vet the best new VP and contrast with the RNC by showing America an actual unifying message, with Harris at the top of the ticket.

Plus, the message writes itself: Kamala the Prosecutor vs. Donald the Felon.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

John Knefel at MMFA:

Several right-wing organizations known mostly for opposing abortion, immigration, and trans rights are also involved in supporting and funding election denial groups, a sign of the issue’s centrality to the MAGA movement.

Following former President Donald Trump’s loss in 2020 and subsequent attempts to remain in power, a complicated and sprawling web of organizations emerged to sow doubt about future elections and spread debunked and baseless allegations of widespread voter fraud. Stringing these overlapping efforts together is the Only Citizens Vote Coalition, an umbrella organization connecting state and national election denial efforts with the broader right-wing policy ecosystem. These groups also significantly overlap with Project 2025, an effort organized by The Heritage Foundation to provide the next Republican presidential administration with staffing and policy recommendations.  Even as early as March 2021, mere months after Trump’s multifaceted effort to reverse the 2020 election, socially conservative groups began pouring money into election denial initiatives. That trend has only accelerated in the intervening years, with a host of anti-civil rights groups — often euphemistically characterized as engaged in the “culture wars” — having expanded their operations to include so-called election integrity.

These groups include the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, the anti-trans American Principles Project, a fund run by Hobby Lobby founder David Green, and high-profile right-wing charities National Christian Charitable Foundation and Christian Community Foundation, among others.  One of the primary myths that the election denial movement has spread this cycle concerns noncitizen voting, which experts agree is exceedingly rare. This manufactured scandal synthesizes two key pillars of the MAGA movement — demonizing immigrants and claiming that elections are rigged against right-wing candidates. The partners listed in the Only Citizens Vote Coalition include anti-immigrant groups the Federation for American Immigration Reform and the Immigration Accountability Project, illustrating how election denial groups have incorporated nativism into their movement. Both FAIR and IAP have strong links to the Tanton network, named after John Tanton, whom the Southern Poverty Law Center refers to as the “the racist architect of the modern anti-immigrant movement.”

Right-wing anti-civil rights organizations are going all-in on pushing the nonexistent “noncitizen voter” canard.

[ngdrb]

Inside MAGA’s game plan if Harris wins

When around 14,000 Philadelphians packed Temple University's Liacouras Center for 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris' first campaign rally with her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the vice president made a point of describing herself as an "underdog" — a word she went on to use again in subsequent rallies. Harris' use of that word is quite strategic: For all the campaign's energy, she wants to make sure that her Democratic supporters don't become complacent.

Nonetheless, many of the polls released in early August have found Harris with small single-digit leads over GOP nominee Donald Trump.

Although Trump leads Harris by 2 percent in a CNBC poll released on August 8, Harris is ahead by 4 percent in a Morning Consult poll and 3 percent in polls from NPR/PBS/Marist and Survey USA. A Marquette University poll released on August 7 showed Harris with a 6 percent lead.

But in an article published by the conservative website The Bulwark on August 8, journalist A.B. Stoddard warns that if Harris wins in November, an "entire army of Republicans" is "ready to block certification of the election at the local level."

"Trump is no longer on track to win the election — which he has been for more than six straight months," Stoddard explains. "Instead, the momentum, money, voter registration, volunteering, grassroots organizing, polling, and online engagement all favor the Democrats, and it looks now like Trump could easily lose. But that won’t happen, because Trump doesn't lose.…. No need to worry about mayhem on January 6, 2025 when Congress meets in joint session; the election deniers plan to stop a result right away if it looks like Harris is winning."

Stoddard continues, "Their goal: Refuse to certify anywhere — even a county that Trump won — and prevent certification in that state, which prevents certification of the presidential election. A Harris victory could become a nightmare."

Stoddard notes that according to Rolling Stone, "pro-Trump election conspiracists" in key swing states like Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia are working as "county election officials" and plan to refuse to certify the election results if Harris wins.

Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias, publisher of Democracy Docket, told Rolling Stone, "I think we are going to see mass refusals to certify the election…. Everything we are seeing about this election is that the other side is more organized, more ruthless, and more prepared."

Stoddard warns that "there are more than enough such individuals in these key posts to bring us to a constitutional crisis."

"So Trump knows there are millions among us who believe him when he says Democrats can only win if they cheat and who believe dark forces are at work to thwart him again," Stoddard explains. "And Trump needs to be president again. He wants to get his criminal cases thrown out, and to stay out of jail. There is nothing he won't try."