#and a reminder that voting third party or not voting at all is voting red!

[michaelinprogress]

I don’t get into politics on my blog typically but I do have somewhat of a reach here (albeit small) so I just want to mention this.

For any other Americans on my blog who might be wondering if voting red is going to be the better option for Palestinians, I promise you, it’s not. Today that orange guy said he promises to “end the conflict in the Middle East.” I want to make it clear that he means to do so by giving aid to Israel to finish what they’ve started. He means to help them in any way he can.

Kamala is not the best person we could have for president. You do not have to like her or support all of her values. But she is our best bet and our best option that we have right now. No matter who is elected, this country is going to keep supporting Israel unfortunately. But voting red is going to help them get to their goal much quicker, and it’s going to make our country a living hell for any minority, woman, pro Palestinian, etc.

Please think about this critically and do your part and vote this November. We’re all counting on each other.

[fromorigintofinality]

i dont post on here a ton but i gotta say the growing attitude on tumblr that voting in the US is somehow useless is really concerning.

just recently i saw this post that was basically making fun of people saying that voting was the way to change the system, and that's just.. wrong? like seriously, how do you think roe v. wade got overturned? its because despite everything, republicans are smart voters and know how to play the long game.

but leftists as of late have lost that quality i feel. instead of advocating for people to vote, they advocate for some "revolution" they think will solve everything. among the people in the post mentioned earlier being glorified as revolutionaries were mao zedong and stalin, and when asked why the poster was glorifying these horrific figures, they said, "yes. Mao freed my family and stalin defeated the fascists. Get with the program sugar"

do you notice anything about that? do you notice how it sounds like the way a child describes the world? "stalin defeated the fascists" like he's some hero who defeated the evil horde of thieves? the way things like the red guard, struggle sessions, all of that, are completely ignored on the side of Mao? how this person, despite having a trans flag in their pfp, is ignoring how the utterly homophobic state of the Chinese government at present is the fault of Mao? how they ignore horrific things such as the Gulag on side of Stalin? this person cannot think, and the only way they believe that the world can move forward is a revolution, and revolution's don't work when the people advocating for them do nothing.

maybe one could argue that this was just a one off type of thing, and that all of the thousands of people liking and reblogging this post are just weirdos. but whether or not thats true, this growing sentiment of praying to a revolution that will never come is indeed growing. and its not just like these people stay in their lane, they actively encourage and probably will cause people to not vote.

so i want to remind everybody. elections are not a moral choice. joe biden is complicit and actively funding a genocide, but not voting for him, third party or not (if you still think third parties are viable please look into the history behind them), will make it more likely that trump will win, and that things in palestine and other things that joe biden has failed in will get 1000x worse. candidates in elections are a bus stop to the real goal, and treating them as such is smart voting, republicans proved this with the overturning of roe v. wade.

please do not be selfish. this last bit may seem out of nowhere, but i need to say this. this type of thinking is selfish. it is selfish and almost impossible to detect as such for the people who believe in it. if you are the type of person who believes in this style of thinking, you have created a completely arbitrary moral code, and care more about your conscience than real political change. you believe yourself to have completely good morals that are universally good, and for the consequences of following these morals, you don't consider the real change that will occur, just your conscience and peace of mind. as for what happens because of that moral code, you will always find a way around looking inwards to how you contributed.

this election season may be the most important yet, please learn to take the practical route instead of the "pure" route.

[fandomsandfeminism]

A reminder that first past the post, winner take all, red/blue electoral college maps promote political tribalism and encourage gross stereotyping. It turns the political process into a game to be won or lost, a sport with teams where the goal is the beat the other side. It erodes nuance, destroys bipartisanship, and crushes third party thought.

More Trump voters live in California than Texas. More Biden voters live in Texas than New York. No political candidate ever carries a state with even 70% of the vote.

Election maps like these move us closer to the truth.

Remember that the loudest, most extreme voices may make the best TV and the most viral videos- but they aren't the reality of your neighbors. Or of mine.

[evidence-based-activism]

Vote

We are now only two weeks from the US election. I know a lot of the women who visit my blog may feel politically homeless (i.e., ideologically opposed to the republicans/conservatives, but feeling betrayed by democrats/liberals).

As such, this is reminder that you do not need to agree with every position of a candidate to vote for them. (In fact, I’d argue that agreeing with everything a candidate says/does means you are either under-informed or misinformed about the issues, candidates, or both.)

So, here’s an incomplete list of reasons to vote for Harris/Democrats in this upcoming election:

Despite what you have been (not) seeing in the news, the current democratic office has actually done a lot of very important things that have improved and will continue to improve the lives of many. Making sure these sorts of actions continue, and are not reversed, requires continued Democrat leadership.

While you may not agree with all of her policies, most of Harris’s positions will benefit marginalized people including women, LGB individuals, and the poor/middle class.

In contrast, Trump’s (and Republican’s) policies are explicitly hostile to all these groups.

As such, you will - at the very least - mitigate harm in most to all areas of life (prevent environmental regulations from being cut, prevent further national attacks on abortion rights, etc.).

Demonstrating you are an active voting bloc will make the institutions (the Democratic Party) more likely to consider and compromise with you. Abstaining from voting or voting for a third party does not indicate resistance to the party, instead it simply expresses disinterest. (Perhaps it would be different if Americans were more politically active, at which point abstaining would signal dissatisfaction with the available options. As it is, all it suggests is that you are part of the politically uninterested population who will not vote and is therefore – from a candidate’s/party’s point of view – not worth listening to.)

You will be — effectively — voting to determine if we have a liberal or conservative court for the next several decades.

You can (and should) vote for the other offices on the ticket. Much of your personal daily lives are affected at the local and state level, so these elections are vitally important to you specifically.

The same argument for local/state initiatives. Many high profile topics (e.g., abortion, electoral systems) as well as local budget/tax policies are decided in these elections. Again, these will have a direct effect on your life.

Voting blue in a majority red state signals (1) to other liberals who chose not to vote that voting may be worthwhile (2) to the Republican Party/conservatives that they need to swing more left to maintain an advantage, (3) that your state may become a swing state in the future, which increases the Democrat party’s interest in you/your voting bloc.

Trump is a rapist.

Please allow me to emphasize this: Trump. Is. A. Rapist.

If you like identity politics: Harris is a woman of color. (As opposed to a white man.)

And ultimately, there are only two realistic outcomes to the election: Trump wins or Harris wins. Given this, if nothing else will convince you, just make sure Trump doesn’t win.

Ballotopedia is a great resource for federal and state elections, including a specific page about state ballot measures. They also have a page for municipal elections in some of the most populated areas.

But if you need help with something related to voting feel free to ask me. You can send a message or an ask and I will help you to the best of my ability.

[thewitchofbooks]

Cyril Rose ~ Facts

AN: I'm finally done with the important facts we know so far for both Cyril and Lucian, and since Cyril won, I'll post him first! Thank you very much to everyone who voted and to everyone reading this!

Warnings: All of the information is from the jp version of the game! Spoilers from Clavis' main Story, GW story sale bonus (detective), Clavis' 2nd birthday, Clavis' story events, Chevalier's 2nd anniversary winner party event story. Everything will be put under the cut:

The starting fact is his name. Cyril Rose was raised in a village in Obsidian, but when he joined the military, many said his last name sounded like he came from the country of roses.

Cyril and Clavis used to call each other "loser" when they first met during the war. Cyril did because he couldn't believe how someone can be like Clavis (putting his life on the line to save others, accepting everyone no matter what and a lot more), as well as how he could stay so calm during everything (but it turned more to teasing between them). Clavis was calling him a loser, because he didn't like how Cyril was ready to give up at that time and was able to help him regain his spirits and join Rhodolite's side.

Cyril is a very gentle and kind guy, but can also be funny with his snarky comments towards Clavis (something between two great friends)

Cyril calls Clavis an "idiot prince"

He has very bright red hair that are very noticeable and mentioned by other characters, (Chevalier, Sariel and more), including Emma.

Cyril doesn't have a lover (and Clavis made sure to remind him in the "Bittersweet Valentine" story event). Cyril told him to stop pretending as if he wasn't in the same position only a whole ago (Since Clavis' route released)

As confirmed in Clavis' 2nd birthday story, Cyril is a very fast runner and a very strong knight. He was able to run to the other side of the town with Emma in his arms (bridal style) and didn't stop at all (<- Emma was described "as light as a feather) and it was all to prank Clavis.) In Chevalier's 2nd anniversary No.1 story, we saw that he can match Chevalier in a sword fight, with fast and strong moves.

He knows how to help a woman get dressed and he can style hair buns, that look elegant and simple (Also from Clavis' 2nd birthday)

Him and Lucian are rumored as really good friends. It was said by Clavis, but he added that when they go out to drink, they're never seen sitting together on the same table. Also, Cyril was seen drinking grape juice while complaining to Rio and Emma about Clavis, while Luciam was most likely drinking alcohol (<-From the GW story sale bonus)

When that happened, he wasn't wearing any gloves (so he either took off his gloves because he wasn't working, or he doesn't wear any). He held Emma and Rio's hands in each of his, to guide them away from Clavis and he took them to Lucian's table.

According to Emma, his hands are rough from training, but very warm and safe.

Apparently, he tries every kind of new juice Clavis comes up with and that time, it was a new herbal juice (as punishment for sneaking from work). He didn't like it at all, yet he still drank it all.

They started bickering and while Emma was thinking that it looked like as if Cyril and Clavis were having fun, Lucian, after he used the mind reading skills he learned from Chevalier, nodded and agreed with her.

He is also very honest and loyal towards Clavis and the other princes (especially Chevalier)

He used to be just a third rate soldier in Obsidian, along with his friends Kai and Hugo. Hugo seems to be the youngest, since he uses honorifics to address Cyril (in the Japanese version). Cyril is probably the oldest of the three, or similar with Kai.

Gilbert wants him back to Obsidian, but Cyril refuses to betray Clavis, leaving Gilbert heartbroken.

The village where Cyril used to love was poor, but the situation wasn't as bad as the parts on the borders between Obsidian and Rhodolite, due to the corrupted nobles.

He is greatly respected by Chevalier, who saw his value. Chevalier knows his name, but prefers to use the nickname "Red head". Same with the others. Even Clavis understands that. Cyril also respects Chevalier, but he thinks he is scary.

He is the lead knight of the foreign affairs faction and he is the one training the knew knights (not the soldiers).

Chevalier trusts him enough to let him in his room and also casually speaks to him. Even though they were trying to keep it secret (them leaving their duties for the day and going for drinks), he somewhat talked about it to Chevalier. But Clavis was hiding in Chevalier's room, so he exposed them. That's why he made him drink that "juice" (<-GW bonus story)

In the "propose to you" story event (Clavis', which is coming soon in EN), Clavis and Emma were getting engaged with Chevalier as the witness. Chevalier didn't look up at them at all and only when they left, he looked at Cyril to answer that he wasn't staying and he was going home with a smirk (Clavis was sad/mad at Chevalier who wouldn't look at how beautifully dressed Emma was). Cyril called him a troublesome brother after he left.

Originally, he was mostly hanging out with Rio for said drinks, but when Emma is free, they let her tag along (<- The bar they go to is only for the court's servants, I'm pretty sure it's to talk about their employees at this point🤣)

Cyril knows that many little boys dream of becoming knights when they grow up, but he, himself, felt like the job he was doing doesn't have a purpose, because lately, he had only been collecting banana peels and cleaning after Clavis.

Just for this reason, Emma and Rio were thanking him for his hard work and looked at him as if he was their savior.

He also complains that the knights have to eat bananas all the time, but they don't keep them very full. He doesn't want to even mention the reason why they do that.

He has more than once said to Emma to use Clavis' wallet for expensive things.

Cyril actually gets very offended when he gets told that he is like a natural born knight. Clavis was the one who told him, when he was being "too sweet" towards Emma. Cyril warned him to never say that again.

He is picking up Clavis' lines. While I don't remember it being translated in the EN version of the game, in the JP this happened: (<- Clavis' route, when they met with the rebels at the borders)

Clavis:"I don't understand why they don't want to welcome such a beautiful man"

Cyril:"Please, stop saying that. It's not fashionable"

(The fashionable comment)

He is the same age as Clavis, so he is 29 years old!

AN: Thank you very much for reading until the end! I hope these facts were helpful! I personally recommend reading both ends of Clavis' upcoming proposal event for more Cyril content!

[victusinveritas]

Some comments from the Reddit Thread this image as found on: " I know a few people that work for NOAA [Edit added from Victus: So do I, FEMA too, this will fuck over both groups and thence the rest of America]. Let’s not forget the Project 2025 agenda is also to privatize weather data and sell its accuracy to the highest bidder. Say goodbye to free tornado warnings in the central states that typically vote Red. The P2025ers are their own worst enemy."

"I work with tribal Head Start programs and a line item in PJ25 is to defund the Department of Education and totally eliminate the Head Start program.

For those who don’t know, Head Start is a free preschool program for low income children ages 0-5 started in 1965 which has served 38 million children and families. Ending this program would devastate rural, tribal, and urban communities and explode the already horrible child care crisis.

Why would they do this? Because if they can destroy the federal education system they can funnel all that $$ to Betsy DeVos and the church run schools who run unregulated, tax-exempt schools. They will be free to discriminate, abuse, segregate and ensure only those they feel are deserving have access to education and women have to leave the workforce. It’s all part of their traditional gender role Gilead dreamland."

"They want cheap exploitable labor... they want to bring back child labor with no safe guards. It's already happening in a number of red Midwestern states."

Another poster adds: "Anyone that wants third parties to actually be viable needs to be out campaigning for an alternative voting system. 26 states allow for a citizens ballot initiative, where all that is required is to get enough signatures for a different voting system to be on the ballot. That way, third party candidates are not acting as spoiler candidates in local, state, national, and even for the presidential election (as seen in Alaska who is currently using Ranked Choice voting).

Implementing Ranked STAR Voting, STAR Voting, Approval Voting, or even Ranked Choice Voting systems would be beneficial to safeguard the future. As groups that don’t side with extremists can select their alternate choices safely, these different systems allow 3rd party representation, and they allow folks to select their preferred candidates without risking to lose the election to their least liked candidate(s) due to the ‘spoiler effect’.

Ranked STAR or Approval Voting are my personal preferred systems (the least liked candidate can rarely still win in RCV due to vote splitting but it’s less common than in FPTP), but all of these options are better than our current First Past the Post system. Alaska and Maine are two states which already use an alternative voting system (they have Ranked Choice voting). Any of these voting systems would go a long ways to helping move the country towards multi-partisanship in politics.

I believe supporting Harris and Democrats in the House and Senate for this election would go a long ways to helping change the current media environment and can help implement voting rights legislation. It also would be helpful in showing the GOP that our country doesn’t want MAGA extremists."

[raccoon-in-a-dumpster]

I am in the editing stage for The Big Breakdown Of The 33 Paragraph Essay Ask, but here's the short version:

I think they mostly wanted to try to explain their stance one more time. This is my best attempt at a short breakdown, without bias. The only reason I’m trying to keep my bias out is because I think it’s better to try to extract the core of the essay in the purest essence possible when trying to explain someone else’s point. Ik I’ve said some variation of that already but I want to say it again.

The main points are:

An attempt to reiterate what they believe ‘proship’ means, and why they think your version is…lacking?? Illogical?? Secret Third (But Similar) Option? Or just straight-up wrong. Somewhere in there.

An attempt to convey that they understand why you won’t believe them. 

I gotta say tho, the way they actually went into that (further than just an ‘I Get It’) being so close to how I put earlier it is. Unsettling. As I’m typing this out, I don’t honestly remember if I got to that point in the Thirty-Three Theses* yet when I said something about it. If yes, it was probably just fresh in my brain. Either way every time i read it again I feel like someone i don’t know just briefly glanced through the mirror at me.

Their third point is basically “I’m afraid that if it’s okay to harass pedophiles, then queer people will be harassed under the pretense of us all being pedophiles just because homophobic/transphobic/etc dickheads want us to leave. So that’s why I’ve decided I’m Proship.” with a very dramatic lead-up that implies concern for you, + a moment of ‘btw I don’t support that stuff myself. For the record.’

There is a reminder of that one time an anon accused you of pedophilia. I do, actually, remember that, because I remember wondering if the anon just heard that you were trans and suddenly saw red. I couldn’t think of any other reason to call a minor a pedophile, unless they just wanted to upset you for no reason? Idk. anyways.

There is also expressed concern for people who aren’t necessarily queer, but people who are writing about pedophilic/incestuous relationships who either don’t know any better, are trying to deal with their own trauma through writing, or adults who aren’t writing anything like that but it’s For or About kids and People Will Call It’s Sus.

Still, their main concern seems to be queer people. 

Long-winded explanation of why they won’t come off anon, which boils down to ‘i am not going to get harassed because i do not need that damage to my mental health’

I don’t know why they worded the last few blocks like a mysterious warning. I think it and the war drums comment are probably because they got weirdly dramatic and self-righteous about it? Idk. Either way they’re expressing concern for you (whether real or fabricated, who knows), with the implication that they think you’re being used/manipulated. Or that they think you could easily be used/manipulated? One of the two.

I have no idea if any of this is performative, or if it’s entirely sincere. The last bit is kind of insulting to you, even if it’s indirect. But what I’m hearing there is “you are voting for the Face-Eating Leopards Party, who promise to only eat the faces of Bad People, but you don’t realize that they can and will easily pin the ‘Bad People’ label on you and your demographic.”

Also, regarding their definition of proship: It’s less about what you ship and how you treat other people for shipping things, whether you like the ship or not.

So by their definition, even if someone did ship something like, idk, Dreammare (most common icky ship that I hear of), they’re not necessarily proship. If they believe that people shouldn’t be harassed over what they ship, and also stick to that and aren’t a fucking hypocrite, then they’re proship. Whether or not the ship in question is pedophilic, abusive, toxic, pretty average, or pure wholesome fluff has no bearing on it. 

I go more into that in the Big Breakdown.

I'm going to have to go places in a moment or two, but when I get back I should be able to finish my editing.

...At least, in the google doc. I'm debating whether tumblr would have better formatting and if I should make it a tumblr post instead of sending a link to the google doc, but if I did then I'd have to fuck with the images, and change some of the OTHER formatting because tumblr doesn't do underline for non-links.......

Either way, send me a message or something if you decide you want to see the whole thing. We're at 7525 words, which includes the essay from Proship Anon themself. most of it's me though

My “Thirty-Three Theses” comment is a reference to the Ninety-Five Theses that made Protestantism a thing. I only reference it because that’s a lot of fucking theses, and they were nailed to the door of the church that the author was bitching about and I think that’s funny. Otherwise it’s entirely irrelevant. I just wanted to share the joke.

7525 WORDS??? JEESSUS CHRIST MAN

but yeah the whole "anon calling me a tranny pedophile" was actually cause they were originally harassing my older brother for being a "tranny pedophile" (they did call BOTH of us trannies so.) despite the fact we're both minors, and also "what're you doing at the devil's sacrament" shit of "see you on Einstein's (epstien's) island"

but like... jesus. you're doing god's work ong.

and like. honestly. i do not give a shit about what someone draws/writes to cope with stuff, that's not my business, yk? my stance on that is that you. should not post it online. keep it between you and your therapist or whatever

[fresne999]

A Good Night at the Phone bank

I'm just going to put this out into the world. It's an election year, so of course there's all these posts that equate Democrats and Republicans, blah, blah, don't vote (or vote third party). 

Which since I volunteer (among other things) with an organization that does voter information outreach to Native Americans, I always want to ask questions about what kind of year round infrastructure work these third parties do to get local, state, and federal officials elected, and increase the political power of disadvantaged communities. Which is to say, I feel salty. 

Disclaimer: I'm not Native American. I'm one of many doing the work to free up Native American organizers' time to be on the ground organizing. Anyhow.

I was on a phone bank. Happens every week. At the end, the volunteer coordinator got very emotional and told us how thankful she is for the energy our group brings week on week. That because of the work we've been doing for years, Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes won her election in 2022 by less than 500 votes. Seeing as it's 2024, I was thinking she was gearing up to ask for more election year shifts.

But no, what she wanted to say was that because we got a Democratic Governor and Attorney General (by <500 votes) "those fake rehab centers that were kidnapping Native American were closed." 

There was a huge ring of fake sober living facilities in AZ where criminals would scoop up Native Americans and hold them hostage to get government money. That in some cases Native Americans had to jump out windows to escape. Died in captivity. We're talking up to 2023, not some long ago thing. That "Some advocates believe the sham treatment programs are contributing to a growing number of missing Indigenous people." Reading that the previous (Republican) governor and attorney general ignored what was going on because they didn't care. 

I had no idea. I'm not from AZ. I knew that Tribal Nations were getting more say in water rights, and money for local school buses (they get very torn up on rural roads), and so on. But this is a little different.

So, yeah. Democrats do care. Good things come from voting Democrat. If AZ hadn't swung Democrat at the top level, those Native Americans would still be disappearing and their families wouldn't know what happened. 

I get that some folks are single issue voters, and their issue is…rubs eyes. That's a different rant. I am not a single issue voter. I am not a single issue volunteer. I look at this vulnerable community whose voting power is actively being suppressed, and understand that because of the Red State plan, Republicans are currently in a position to actively gerrymander voting power away from numerically large, but disadvantaged, communities. That it takes tremendous work to overcome that obstacle. I mean literally over a hundred thousand phone calls a year. I mean thousands of miles driven by local organizers on really difficult roads. Dealing with heat. Snow. Mud slides. Work. 

That because of the electoral college, even though Democrats have won the popular vote by several million votes in 7 of the last 8 election cycles (2004 I'm shaking my head at you), every Presidential election year you get Democrats begging folks not to vote for third parties, because presidential elections are NOT based on the popular vote. That how key state's electoral college votes will be awarded is going to be based on a margin of a few thousand votes. 

Which is just a bag of cats frustrating. 

I'm just one cog doing my best to turn a wheel. To transfer a few drops of my privilege to a community who needs it, and it's worth it. I get on phone banks like last night and I know it's worth it. I'm going to remind myself of the tangible results that come from voting Democrat and volunteering the next time one of those posts floats by my dash and puts salt on my popcorn. Now, back to writing postcards that help disenfranchised folks connect with their local organizer.

[banamine-bananime]

the forum werewolf game ever. of all time: day two close

Start reading here!

With Church coming ever closer to death by popular vote with ten minutes to go, Andy asks for the reveal Church had promised:

Boy does Church deliver!

Okay, necessary background: an innocent child is a role in werewolf where mods confirm that a player is village. Confirmation generally either happens at the start of the game or immediately after a player calls for the reveal.

This is the one singular roleclaim that can immediately be proven 100% true or almost 100% certainly false.

And this is Church’s choice of fakeclaim.

Okay!!!!!! 

Tex:

In frantic discussion against the deadline, most people agree this is class B Bullshit. Some agree this is probably bullshit, but Church claims the confirmation will happen during night actions so hey, let him cook, we’ll kill him tomorrow if it’s a lie. Caboose and Tucker are still team “lmfao no this is not Church, that’s an alien, bro, kill it with fire” but friendly fire voting is still not enabled so their opinion is useless. 

Church has objections to Donut’s reaction:

Despite the past ten plus pages being largely focused on how much Church needs to die, with a side of how much Wyoming needs to die, Vic slides into the lead by virtue of blue team being more united on Vic than red team on Church and blue team still not being allowed to teamkill:

D2 Lover's Quarrel Official FINAL Tally

Blue Team: Church (4) - Simmons, Grif, The Meta, Donut Doc (2) - Vic, Wyoming Caboose (1) - Lopez  Red Team: Wyoming (1) - Tucker Vic (6) - Caboose, Tex, Sheila, Andy, O’Malley, Doc Simmons (1) - Church Voting: 15/15 Missing: peace and quiet Leading: Vic

(Let us not forget from day one:)

lol

Okay, neither village nor a wolf, but a third party. A jester wins by getting voted out. This is not the flip anyone was expecting:

Church, for whatever reason, decides to triple down on the innocent child fakeclaim (you may know this strategy as “getting yourself completely fucked by lying for no fucking reason”):

Grif has a friendly reminder:

Church:

What about that “treestump”?

Great question, player! It means even while dead (so cannot vote or use any night actions), Vic can continue haunting everyone and posting away as much as he likes. You can kill the Vic-arino but you can’t make him shut up.

Vic demonstrates:

Church won’t let this hiccup interrupt digging his grave:

Yeah, Church. Yeah. It sure is.

I think by this point Church was fully living in the reality where his role really was innocent child.

Church also doubles down on Vic being “village” also meaning Caboose is wolfing:

The Meta, in the wolves' private chat:

Next: night 2

[mariacallous]

The Supreme Court’s decision to reverse nearly fifty years of precedent and send the abortion issue back to the states sent shock waves throughout the country. During the summer months the implications of that decision were widely held to be helping the Democrats in what had been shaping up to be a dismal midterm election year. In some states voter registration of women surged. But by Labor Day the conventional wisdom had swung back. No, insisted most pundits, abortion wouldn’t drive many votes, but inflation would.

How wrong they were.

The first indication came early on election night in CNN’s exit polls. To the obvious surprise of the on-air talent, abortion came in a close second to inflation: 31% said inflation was their top issue but 27% said abortion was. Despite late pre-election polls showing abortion sinking to third or fourth place or disappearing, there are several reasons why the issue never really went away.

First, there are a lot of women in America, they are evenly distributed across the country, and they consistently vote more often than men—as the following table from our colleague Bill Frey here at Brookings illustrates.

This year was no different. According to CNN exit polls, women constituted 52% of the vote and men 48%. That is an enormous difference. Let’s assume that turnout in 2022 ends up being about the same as the record 2018 turnout—roughly 116 million votes. The women’s share of that vote? 60,320,000. Exit polls also show that 53% of women voted Democratic. That’s 31,969,600 votes—a big number. Hillary Clinton, who clearly shares our frustration with those who discounted the women’s vote, tweeted out the following clearly sarcastic comment: “It turns out women enjoy having human rights, and we vote.”

Apart from the sheer magnitude of the women’s vote is the issue of intensity. Unlike men, women spend a great deal of their lives thinking about reproduction. They have no choice. Even in the 21st century, pregnancy is still a dangerous business, and women’s health care is no place for government bureaucrats. No wonder that women think abortion is a lot more important than men do. As the election season entered its final stretch, and many Republican candidates got a crash course in obstetrics, some pulled back and/or softened their previous hard lines on abortion.

The importance of the issue was seen most clearly in the Senate debate in Pennsylvania. Although the Democrat, John Fetterman gave a halting performance because he was still recovering from a serious stroke, his opponent, Republican Mehmet Oz, managed to make what had to be one of the most damaging comments on abortion ever: “I want women, doctors, and local political leaders…” to make these decisions.

The sheer absurdity of that comment went a long way towards distracting voters from the issue of Fetterman’s health and reminded many that government shouldn’t be making those decisions.

Finally, abortion is fundamentally different from inflation. Inflation is unpopular with both parties—there is no pro-inflation and anti-inflation party. In fact, if we’ve learned anything about politics in our polarized time it’s that voters see almost all issues through their partisan lens. Democrats worried about inflation could think that Joe Biden was dealing with it and Republicans that Joe Biden caused it. But abortion is different. One party is clearly in favor of keeping it legal in most or all circumstances and the other is not.

If you put together the sheer size of the women’s vote, the intensity of the issue and the fact that, unlike inflation or the economy, the two parties have stark differences on the issue, you get a powerful driver of the vote. There were five states with abortion referenda on the ballot and in every single one—including the deep red state of Kentucky—the pro-choice position won. In Michigan, where the abortion referendum won by 13.4 percent, it is not far-fetched to assume that it helped the Democrats keep several congressional seats. And in Pennsylvania, where abortion topped inflation by 9 points, Democrats picked up the only Senate seat so far.

The following table shows the percentage of voters in each of the crucial states and how they rated inflation and abortion. In most cases abortion was a close second; in Michigan and Pennsylvania it was far ahead of inflation.

Central to the story of the 2022 midterms, then, is an issue central to women’s lives, powerful enough to snatch victory from the Republicans, and durable enough to send a message about the future.

[losttheoldone-hereweareagain]

And if you are feeling unhappy that there's not a viable third party candidate, I'm gonna need everyone angry about it to GO GET INVOLVED IN LOCAL POLITICS

Find out when your school board or city council meet and take part. If you want to stand for something, if you want to push things further left, it needs to start local, within your own community, and expand outward

It will take time. It will take actual in-person interactions with people whose opinion on the world might be fundamentally opposed to yours. But congrats, you get to remind that person that you (with all your opinions and life experience) are both human and a part of their community

Push for little things first and as you grow in confidence and they grow in their familiarity with you, work on bigger goals, like introducing the option of ranked choice voting. Like finding candidates that aren't strictly red or blue

Solidarity and community do more for shifting people and nations from despair and grief to hope and progress then any online discourse

Y'all can hate me, but I'm gonna fucking quote Hamilton now

"What is a legacy? It's planting seeds in a garden you never get to see"

If we want a brighter future, we need to start building. Not just for ourselves, but for the next generation and beyond

Hey. In the wake of this news, I better not fucking see any of you talk about not voting or voting third party (specifically in the presidential election). Biden has endorsed Harris, so she is absolutely the nominee unless something else crazy happens. You know what that means? You’re gonna vote for her. I don’t fucking care if she isn’t your first choice, I don’t care if you think your vote will do nothing. You vote for her, if not for yourself then for everyone else in this goddamn country. You vote so we actually have a chance to vote when the next election rolls around. None of this defeatism bullshit. You vote to keep the other option out of office, even if it’s not the best choice. We can discuss better options for presidency after our rights don’t hang in the balance with Project 2025. So go. Fucking. Vote.

[rum-inspector]

The op is unrebloggabl and tumblr pls! My post is not dismissing op but ADDING context since I have not seen the bigger aspect being brought up about RE: French elections and how strategy of the party made this possible. In USA, pushing voters left could only happen if democrats supported 3rd parties in deep red states. Read further under cut.

I->-> Reminder that it was not the voting alone: this was possible in big part through the tactics and strategy of the parties! The moderate (both centrist and even moderate right) chose to take their canditates off the race in regions where they had no chance of winning and openly supported the canditate that had a chance to win, urged their voters to support the third canditate (which by the Results they did!) from another party to oppose far right canditate. How often do you see right wing party ask their voters to vote left of them?

The equivalent in USA would be if democrats chose not to run in a strong red states (or districts in local elections) and put all their money and support towards a third party canditate that now had a chance to win (I am talking of states where democrats have no chance to but third party could adopt both democrat votes AND votes of ex-gop voters who still won't vote dems foe their personal ick or history. And their own voters AND potentially people who never voted before when they are so against both gop&dems and two party system)

Voters can not be tactical about their votes. Voters vote what ever they choose to even if their choice is not to - that's democracy - however, parties have power to choose strategy and tactics to encourage voters. Even if it means humbling down in support of a third party (or in multiple party system joining in alliance to share votes). Parties are the ones spending millions and billions in money and time to their chosen strategy. If you still believe in parliamentary politics, get involved in the party and push for a change within. Expect it to take years and decades or never happen so you have to have strong will and belief to keep going. Or in a smaller scale; get involved locally to ensure everyone who wants to vote gets to do it. Stop worrying about people being critical of the system and learn to recognize actual voter suppression (f.ex misinfo about vote dates or sending people to false registration sites gets spread scarily far).

TL;DR Parties choose strategy to get you to vote, voters vote from the heart.

[companyknowledgenews]

At the Races: Don’t forget the Motor City (counts votes slowly) - Notice Today Internet https://www.merchant-business.com/at-the-races-dont-forget-the-motor-city-counts-votes-slowly/?feed_id=159918&_unique_id=66b5f3376ae74 #GLOBAL - BLOGGER BLOGGER Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.Michigan’s congressional primaries were overshadowed nationally by the debut of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as the running mate of current Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris — but not to the campaign committees and their outside supporters.The NRSC’s independent expenditure arm launched its first ad of the cycle targeting Rep. Elissa Slotkin just hours after she won the nomination to succeed Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and as our friend Bridget Bowman reports for NBC News, it’s part of a $10 million campaign. On top of that, OneNation, which is the policy affiliate of the Senate GOP leadership-aligned super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, launched the first salvo in a $9.4 million campaign also targeting Slotkin.The Democrats, likewise, were quick to unveil ads in Michigan and other states this week. The DSCC’s independent expenditure arm has a new ad as part of a previously announced buy going after the GOP nominee, former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers, for his post-congressional career.Slotkin and Rogers were declared winners of their primaries early on Tuesday night, but don’t expect that to happen when they face each other in a November race rated Tilt Democratic, or when Harris and Walz go up against the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance in a state rated Toss-up.The heavily Democratic 13th District based around Detroit provides a reminder of why. At midnight, The Associated Press estimated that only about 2 percent of ballots had been counted, and the call that incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar won renomination didn’t come until 2:12 a.m. on Wednesday. He ultimately prevailed in the primary by about 20 points.Google News Starting gateBad news for Good: A recount of the June 18 Republican primary in Virginia’s 5th District confirmed Rep. Bob Good, who chairs the House Freedom Caucus, lost to state Sen. John McGuire.And for Bush: Missouri Rep. Cori Bush became the fourth House incumbent, and second progressive Democrat, to lose a primary this year after pro-Israel groups and others supporting Tuesday’s winner, St. Louis Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, spent more than $12 million. Groups backing Bush or opposing Bell spent $3.3 million. Other Missouri primaries picked nominees for the deep-red 3rd District and a Democratic challenger for Sen. Josh Hawley.Is Newhouse next? Washington state’s all-party primaries send the top two vote-getters to the November ballot, so the 25 percent that GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse got Tuesday means he’s not toast yet. But another Republican finished with 31 percent and a third got 19 percent. If that sentiment holds in November, Newhouse starts out with 50 percent of Republicans against him. Washington’s primaries also set a rematch for Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez against Republican Joe Kent and picked nominees for open seats in the 5th and 6th districts, where the races are rated Solid Republican and Solid Democratic, respectively.But wait, there’s more: Nominees were picked Tuesday for huge battles ahead for Senate and the open 7th District, among other seats, in Michigan. Voters in Kansas picked a challenger for Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and tapped a former House member to run for an open seat.And we’re still not done: Tennessee held its primaries on Thursday, and Rep. Andy Ogles held off a challenge from Courtney Johnston, a member of the Nashville Metro Council, winning with 57 percent of the vote. But his troubles didn’t end with the victory. Ogles this week confirmed that the FBI seized his cellphone and said it was

his understanding that the probe was “investigating the same well-known facts” surrounding mistakes his campaign made on financial reports. RIP: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who died last month after a battle with pancreatic cancer, was eulogized by Harris in Houston last week. The vice president remembered the Texas Democrat as “unrelenting,” Justin Papp reports.Google News ICYMITim who?: He’s not Republican Rep. Michael Waltz or singer Tom Waits, but most people had little idea who Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz actually is despite his career in Congress and election to two terms as Minnesota governor. So like a lot of people in the profession, our newsroom has been trying to fill the gaps since he was chosen on Tuesday, starting with how people and groups reacting to the choice described him, how the Harris campaign introduced him and how the Trump campaign responded, and what members of the House elected in the same year as he was said. We also had detailed looks at his role on agriculture and health care, and how the pick affects potential contributors on Wall Street.Gambling on elections: A group of House and Senate Democrats wants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to move forward with a ban on political betting markets backed by Wall Street. “Election gambling fundamentally cheapens the sanctity of our democratic process. Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations,” the lawmakers wrote in a Monday letter to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam. Oregon Democrat Jeff Merkley, the lead Senate signatory, previously expressed his concerns in an MSNBC opinion piece.Shah faces Schweikert: Amish Shah, a medical doctor and former state legislator, won the July 30 Democratic primary to face incumbent Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., in the 1st District. The race is rated Tilt Republican by Inside Elections, and there was a crowded primary to get the chance to challenge the incumbent on November’s ballot. Another Arizona Democratic primary, for the open 3rd District seat, is heading for a recount with 42 votes separating Yassamin Ansari and Raquel Terán.Ad watch: House Majority Forward released ads in several House races this week, including a television ad supporting Maine Rep. Jared Golden, a radio ad supporting North Carolina Rep. Don Davis and a digital ad targeting California Rep. Mike Garcia. Florida Sen. Rick Scott announced a statewide ad buy focusing on Harris. And the DSCC released its first ad against Tim Sheehy in Montana, accusing the Republican of advocating to privatize public lands.Security funding: The top senators on the panel that provides funding for the Department of Homeland Security questioned whether the Secret Service needs more money after the attempted assassination of Trump, CQ Roll Call’s Chris Johnson reports. That appears to have led to a delay of the department’s fiscal 2025 funding bill. Picking a successor: Jackson Lee’s children endorsed Sylvester Turner, the former Houston mayor, to succeed her in the House. Turner is among several Democrats who have been in touch with the county party officials who will pick a new candidate to be on the November ballot on the same day that there’s a special election to serve the rest of Jackson Lee’s current term. Another candidate vying for the seat is Amanda Edwards, a former intern for Jackson Lee who lost the Democratic primary to her in March.From Congress to the forest? Former House member Jaime Herrera Beutler is leading the field of contenders in the primary for Washington state lands commissioner. Herrera Beutler, a Republican who lost her bid for a seventh term in Congress two years ago, got about 23 percent of the vote on Tuesday in a seven-candidate field, according to the Washington State Standard.Google News What we’re reading Lame duck alert: Not to look past Election Day, but the folks at the Congressional Research Service are already getting ready for the lame-duck

session, updating their handy chart and report on what actually gets done during the post-election sessions with plenty of references to our CQ Vote Studies. Minnesota markets: While he’s not from a true swing state himself, Walz may be more familiar to voters in parts of Wisconsin that share media markets with Minnesota, Torey Van Oot writes for Axios in the Twin Cities.Wellstone’s imprint: After Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash in 2002, the family of the liberal Democratic senator from Minnesota established a training program for up-and-coming progressives. One of the first attendees, according to The Nation? A high school teacher named Tim Walz. Meddling: A group tied to House Democratic leaders is spending nearly $1 million on ads that boost an underfunded perennial candidate for the state’s at-large congressional district in an effort to help Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. “The group appears to be attempting to game Alaska’s complicated electoral system to ensure Peltola has the best odds of prevailing in November,” Politico reports.Otherwise occupied: Punchbowl News reached out to vulnerable Democrats in Congress and found that many of them are skipping the convention in Chicago later this month. That’s not unlike some swing-district Republicans, who were similarly busy the week their party gathered in Milwaukee.Google News The count: 193That’s the number of times, out of 1,327 chances, that the embattled Newhouse, whom Trump branded a “weak and pathetic RINO” on Saturday, voted against a majority of House Republicans since January 2021, according to a CQ Vote Studies analysis by our colleague Ryan Kelly. The analysis includes votes for which majorities of the two parties were on opposite sides, and it assigns a “party unity” score based on how often a lawmaker votes with or without his side. The data shows 13 House Republicans who were in Congress at the same time had lower party unity scores than Newhouse’s, but he is the only one who committed the mortal sin of voting in 2021 to impeach Trump after his supporters rioted at the Capitol. The 13 include many members whom the GOP will be spending millions of dollars this fall to keep from losing their seats, including Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick (552 votes against his majority), Nebraska’s Don Bacon (268 votes), California’s Young Kim (257 votes), New York’s Andrew Garbarino (251 votes) and California’s Ken Calvert (195 votes). Garbarino, for example, has Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement.”Google News Nathan’s notesAs a high school teacher taking on a Republican in a rural Minnesota district nearly 19 years ago, Democrat Tim Walz didn’t exactly strike political handicappers as a guy who was going places, but Nathan writes that he had good timing.Google News Key race: #IA01Candidates: Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is an ophthalmologist, a former state senator and a veteran who is seeking her third term in the House. She faces Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state representative who teaches constitutional law at the University of Iowa. It’s a rematch of their 2022 contest, which Miller-Meeks won by almost 7 percentage points.Why it matters: The 1st District is one of two competitive seats in Iowa that could determine which party controls the House, and it’s on the DCCC’s list of districts that Democrats are seeking to flip this year. The race is rated Lean Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. Cash dash: Miller-Meeks raised $3.5 million since the 2022 election, while Bohannan, who entered the race in August 2023, has raised $3.4 million. Bohannan had $2.4 million on hand as of June 30 to Miller-Meeks’ $2.3 million.Backers: Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Attorney General Brenna Bird are supporting Miller-Meeks, as are House GOP leaders. Bohannan was endorsed by EMILY’s List and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s Fight Like Hell PAC. She is also part of the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, which provides Democratic challengers in competitive, Republican-held districts with organizational and fundraising support.

What they’re saying: Democrats have centered the campaign on abortion access. A new state law that took effect in July bans abortion once fetal cardiac activity can be detected, which usually occurs around six weeks into pregnancy, before many people even know they’re pregnant. Bohannan’s first ad, released this week, accuses Miller-Meeks of helping to pass that measure, even though she was not in the state legislature at the time. Miller-Meeks received an A+ rating from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and was a co-sponsor of the bill during the last Congress that would have prohibited all abortions nationwide without exception; however, she didn’t sign on as a co-sponsor of the measure during the current Congress. Miller-Meeks accused Democrats of embracing an “extreme” position on abortion and focusing on it as a way to avoid discussing economic issues and border security.Terrain: The district is in the southeastern portion of the state, reaching from the Illinois border to the Missouri border and to the fringes of the Des Moines metropolitan area. It includes the cities of Davenport and Burlington as well as Iowa City, home to the University of Iowa. Along with the 3rd District, it is the least Republican of the state’s congressional districts: Biden lost the 1st by less than 2.4 percentage points, according to Inside Elections.Wild card: In 2020, Miller-Meeks won the seat by a scant six-vote margin. In June, she beat an underfunded and largely unknown right-wing GOP primary foe by 12 percentage points, a race that some observers deemed surprisingly close.Google News Coming upThe primaries just keep coming. Up next week are Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin.Google News Photo finishAfter being chosen as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz fires up a crowd at his debut rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday as presidential nominee Harris applauds. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.“Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe…”Source Link: https://rollcall.com/2024/08/08/at-the-races-dont-forget-the-motor-city-counts-votes-slowly/ http://109.70.148.72/~merchant29/6network/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/gae2f533467bbea064cd597666c3ea8cb1d0a4324b5809bc426da36e4854a613d7041fae51c5478de86fb95801add1a9e_64.png Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. Michigan’s congressional primaries were overshadowed nationally by the debut of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as the running mate of current Vice President and Democratic … Read More

[bravecompanynews]

At the Races: Don’t forget the Motor City (counts votes slowly) - Notice Today Internet - #GLOBAL https://www.merchant-business.com/at-the-races-dont-forget-the-motor-city-counts-votes-slowly/?feed_id=159917&_unique_id=66b5f3367b4ee Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.Michigan’s congressional primaries were overshadowed nationally by the debut of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as the running mate of current Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris — but not to the campaign committees and their outside supporters.The NRSC’s independent expenditure arm launched its first ad of the cycle targeting Rep. Elissa Slotkin just hours after she won the nomination to succeed Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and as our friend Bridget Bowman reports for NBC News, it’s part of a $10 million campaign. On top of that, OneNation, which is the policy affiliate of the Senate GOP leadership-aligned super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, launched the first salvo in a $9.4 million campaign also targeting Slotkin.The Democrats, likewise, were quick to unveil ads in Michigan and other states this week. The DSCC’s independent expenditure arm has a new ad as part of a previously announced buy going after the GOP nominee, former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers, for his post-congressional career.Slotkin and Rogers were declared winners of their primaries early on Tuesday night, but don’t expect that to happen when they face each other in a November race rated Tilt Democratic, or when Harris and Walz go up against the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance in a state rated Toss-up.The heavily Democratic 13th District based around Detroit provides a reminder of why. At midnight, The Associated Press estimated that only about 2 percent of ballots had been counted, and the call that incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar won renomination didn’t come until 2:12 a.m. on Wednesday. He ultimately prevailed in the primary by about 20 points.Google News Starting gateBad news for Good: A recount of the June 18 Republican primary in Virginia’s 5th District confirmed Rep. Bob Good, who chairs the House Freedom Caucus, lost to state Sen. John McGuire.And for Bush: Missouri Rep. Cori Bush became the fourth House incumbent, and second progressive Democrat, to lose a primary this year after pro-Israel groups and others supporting Tuesday’s winner, St. Louis Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, spent more than $12 million. Groups backing Bush or opposing Bell spent $3.3 million. Other Missouri primaries picked nominees for the deep-red 3rd District and a Democratic challenger for Sen. Josh Hawley.Is Newhouse next? Washington state’s all-party primaries send the top two vote-getters to the November ballot, so the 25 percent that GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse got Tuesday means he’s not toast yet. But another Republican finished with 31 percent and a third got 19 percent. If that sentiment holds in November, Newhouse starts out with 50 percent of Republicans against him. Washington’s primaries also set a rematch for Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez against Republican Joe Kent and picked nominees for open seats in the 5th and 6th districts, where the races are rated Solid Republican and Solid Democratic, respectively.But wait, there’s more: Nominees were picked Tuesday for huge battles ahead for Senate and the open 7th District, among other seats, in Michigan. Voters in Kansas picked a challenger for Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and tapped a former House member to run for an open seat.And we’re still not done: Tennessee held its primaries on Thursday, and Rep. Andy Ogles held off a challenge from Courtney Johnston, a member of the Nashville Metro Council, winning with 57 percent of the vote. But his troubles didn’t end with the victory. Ogles this week confirmed that the FBI seized his cellphone and said it was his understanding

that the probe was “investigating the same well-known facts” surrounding mistakes his campaign made on financial reports. RIP: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who died last month after a battle with pancreatic cancer, was eulogized by Harris in Houston last week. The vice president remembered the Texas Democrat as “unrelenting,” Justin Papp reports.Google News ICYMITim who?: He’s not Republican Rep. Michael Waltz or singer Tom Waits, but most people had little idea who Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz actually is despite his career in Congress and election to two terms as Minnesota governor. So like a lot of people in the profession, our newsroom has been trying to fill the gaps since he was chosen on Tuesday, starting with how people and groups reacting to the choice described him, how the Harris campaign introduced him and how the Trump campaign responded, and what members of the House elected in the same year as he was said. We also had detailed looks at his role on agriculture and health care, and how the pick affects potential contributors on Wall Street.Gambling on elections: A group of House and Senate Democrats wants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to move forward with a ban on political betting markets backed by Wall Street. “Election gambling fundamentally cheapens the sanctity of our democratic process. Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations,” the lawmakers wrote in a Monday letter to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam. Oregon Democrat Jeff Merkley, the lead Senate signatory, previously expressed his concerns in an MSNBC opinion piece.Shah faces Schweikert: Amish Shah, a medical doctor and former state legislator, won the July 30 Democratic primary to face incumbent Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., in the 1st District. The race is rated Tilt Republican by Inside Elections, and there was a crowded primary to get the chance to challenge the incumbent on November’s ballot. Another Arizona Democratic primary, for the open 3rd District seat, is heading for a recount with 42 votes separating Yassamin Ansari and Raquel Terán.Ad watch: House Majority Forward released ads in several House races this week, including a television ad supporting Maine Rep. Jared Golden, a radio ad supporting North Carolina Rep. Don Davis and a digital ad targeting California Rep. Mike Garcia. Florida Sen. Rick Scott announced a statewide ad buy focusing on Harris. And the DSCC released its first ad against Tim Sheehy in Montana, accusing the Republican of advocating to privatize public lands.Security funding: The top senators on the panel that provides funding for the Department of Homeland Security questioned whether the Secret Service needs more money after the attempted assassination of Trump, CQ Roll Call’s Chris Johnson reports. That appears to have led to a delay of the department’s fiscal 2025 funding bill. Picking a successor: Jackson Lee’s children endorsed Sylvester Turner, the former Houston mayor, to succeed her in the House. Turner is among several Democrats who have been in touch with the county party officials who will pick a new candidate to be on the November ballot on the same day that there’s a special election to serve the rest of Jackson Lee’s current term. Another candidate vying for the seat is Amanda Edwards, a former intern for Jackson Lee who lost the Democratic primary to her in March.From Congress to the forest? Former House member Jaime Herrera Beutler is leading the field of contenders in the primary for Washington state lands commissioner. Herrera Beutler, a Republican who lost her bid for a seventh term in Congress two years ago, got about 23 percent of the vote on Tuesday in a seven-candidate field, according to the Washington State Standard.Google News What we’re reading Lame duck alert: Not to look past Election Day, but the folks at the Congressional Research Service are already getting ready for the lame-duck session, updating

their handy chart and report on what actually gets done during the post-election sessions with plenty of references to our CQ Vote Studies. Minnesota markets: While he’s not from a true swing state himself, Walz may be more familiar to voters in parts of Wisconsin that share media markets with Minnesota, Torey Van Oot writes for Axios in the Twin Cities.Wellstone’s imprint: After Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash in 2002, the family of the liberal Democratic senator from Minnesota established a training program for up-and-coming progressives. One of the first attendees, according to The Nation? A high school teacher named Tim Walz. Meddling: A group tied to House Democratic leaders is spending nearly $1 million on ads that boost an underfunded perennial candidate for the state’s at-large congressional district in an effort to help Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. “The group appears to be attempting to game Alaska’s complicated electoral system to ensure Peltola has the best odds of prevailing in November,” Politico reports.Otherwise occupied: Punchbowl News reached out to vulnerable Democrats in Congress and found that many of them are skipping the convention in Chicago later this month. That’s not unlike some swing-district Republicans, who were similarly busy the week their party gathered in Milwaukee.Google News The count: 193That’s the number of times, out of 1,327 chances, that the embattled Newhouse, whom Trump branded a “weak and pathetic RINO” on Saturday, voted against a majority of House Republicans since January 2021, according to a CQ Vote Studies analysis by our colleague Ryan Kelly. The analysis includes votes for which majorities of the two parties were on opposite sides, and it assigns a “party unity” score based on how often a lawmaker votes with or without his side. The data shows 13 House Republicans who were in Congress at the same time had lower party unity scores than Newhouse’s, but he is the only one who committed the mortal sin of voting in 2021 to impeach Trump after his supporters rioted at the Capitol. The 13 include many members whom the GOP will be spending millions of dollars this fall to keep from losing their seats, including Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick (552 votes against his majority), Nebraska’s Don Bacon (268 votes), California’s Young Kim (257 votes), New York’s Andrew Garbarino (251 votes) and California’s Ken Calvert (195 votes). Garbarino, for example, has Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement.”Google News Nathan’s notesAs a high school teacher taking on a Republican in a rural Minnesota district nearly 19 years ago, Democrat Tim Walz didn’t exactly strike political handicappers as a guy who was going places, but Nathan writes that he had good timing.Google News Key race: #IA01Candidates: Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is an ophthalmologist, a former state senator and a veteran who is seeking her third term in the House. She faces Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state representative who teaches constitutional law at the University of Iowa. It’s a rematch of their 2022 contest, which Miller-Meeks won by almost 7 percentage points.Why it matters: The 1st District is one of two competitive seats in Iowa that could determine which party controls the House, and it’s on the DCCC’s list of districts that Democrats are seeking to flip this year. The race is rated Lean Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. Cash dash: Miller-Meeks raised $3.5 million since the 2022 election, while Bohannan, who entered the race in August 2023, has raised $3.4 million. Bohannan had $2.4 million on hand as of June 30 to Miller-Meeks’ $2.3 million.Backers: Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Attorney General Brenna Bird are supporting Miller-Meeks, as are House GOP leaders. Bohannan was endorsed by EMILY’s List and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s Fight Like Hell PAC. She is also part of the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, which provides Democratic challengers in competitive, Republican-held districts with organizational and fundraising support.

What they’re saying: Democrats have centered the campaign on abortion access. A new state law that took effect in July bans abortion once fetal cardiac activity can be detected, which usually occurs around six weeks into pregnancy, before many people even know they’re pregnant. Bohannan’s first ad, released this week, accuses Miller-Meeks of helping to pass that measure, even though she was not in the state legislature at the time. Miller-Meeks received an A+ rating from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and was a co-sponsor of the bill during the last Congress that would have prohibited all abortions nationwide without exception; however, she didn’t sign on as a co-sponsor of the measure during the current Congress. Miller-Meeks accused Democrats of embracing an “extreme” position on abortion and focusing on it as a way to avoid discussing economic issues and border security.Terrain: The district is in the southeastern portion of the state, reaching from the Illinois border to the Missouri border and to the fringes of the Des Moines metropolitan area. It includes the cities of Davenport and Burlington as well as Iowa City, home to the University of Iowa. Along with the 3rd District, it is the least Republican of the state’s congressional districts: Biden lost the 1st by less than 2.4 percentage points, according to Inside Elections.Wild card: In 2020, Miller-Meeks won the seat by a scant six-vote margin. In June, she beat an underfunded and largely unknown right-wing GOP primary foe by 12 percentage points, a race that some observers deemed surprisingly close.Google News Coming upThe primaries just keep coming. Up next week are Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin.Google News Photo finishAfter being chosen as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz fires up a crowd at his debut rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday as presidential nominee Harris applauds. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.“Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe…”Source Link: https://rollcall.com/2024/08/08/at-the-races-dont-forget-the-motor-city-counts-votes-slowly/ http://109.70.148.72/~merchant29/6network/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/gae2f533467bbea064cd597666c3ea8cb1d0a4324b5809bc426da36e4854a613d7041fae51c5478de86fb95801add1a9e_64.png BLOGGER - #GLOBAL

[boldcompanynews]

At the Races: Don’t forget the Motor City (counts votes slowly) - Notice Today Internet - BLOGGER https://www.merchant-business.com/at-the-races-dont-forget-the-motor-city-counts-votes-slowly/?feed_id=159916&_unique_id=66b5f33531d7f Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.Michigan’s congressional primaries were overshadowed nationally by the debut of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as the running mate of current Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris — but not to the campaign committees and their outside supporters.The NRSC’s independent expenditure arm launched its first ad of the cycle targeting Rep. Elissa Slotkin just hours after she won the nomination to succeed Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and as our friend Bridget Bowman reports for NBC News, it’s part of a $10 million campaign. On top of that, OneNation, which is the policy affiliate of the Senate GOP leadership-aligned super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, launched the first salvo in a $9.4 million campaign also targeting Slotkin.The Democrats, likewise, were quick to unveil ads in Michigan and other states this week. The DSCC’s independent expenditure arm has a new ad as part of a previously announced buy going after the GOP nominee, former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers, for his post-congressional career.Slotkin and Rogers were declared winners of their primaries early on Tuesday night, but don’t expect that to happen when they face each other in a November race rated Tilt Democratic, or when Harris and Walz go up against the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance in a state rated Toss-up.The heavily Democratic 13th District based around Detroit provides a reminder of why. At midnight, The Associated Press estimated that only about 2 percent of ballots had been counted, and the call that incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar won renomination didn’t come until 2:12 a.m. on Wednesday. He ultimately prevailed in the primary by about 20 points.Google News Starting gateBad news for Good: A recount of the June 18 Republican primary in Virginia’s 5th District confirmed Rep. Bob Good, who chairs the House Freedom Caucus, lost to state Sen. John McGuire.And for Bush: Missouri Rep. Cori Bush became the fourth House incumbent, and second progressive Democrat, to lose a primary this year after pro-Israel groups and others supporting Tuesday’s winner, St. Louis Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, spent more than $12 million. Groups backing Bush or opposing Bell spent $3.3 million. Other Missouri primaries picked nominees for the deep-red 3rd District and a Democratic challenger for Sen. Josh Hawley.Is Newhouse next? Washington state’s all-party primaries send the top two vote-getters to the November ballot, so the 25 percent that GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse got Tuesday means he’s not toast yet. But another Republican finished with 31 percent and a third got 19 percent. If that sentiment holds in November, Newhouse starts out with 50 percent of Republicans against him. Washington’s primaries also set a rematch for Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez against Republican Joe Kent and picked nominees for open seats in the 5th and 6th districts, where the races are rated Solid Republican and Solid Democratic, respectively.But wait, there’s more: Nominees were picked Tuesday for huge battles ahead for Senate and the open 7th District, among other seats, in Michigan. Voters in Kansas picked a challenger for Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and tapped a former House member to run for an open seat.And we’re still not done: Tennessee held its primaries on Thursday, and Rep. Andy Ogles held off a challenge from Courtney Johnston, a member of the Nashville Metro Council, winning with 57 percent of the vote. But his troubles didn’t end with the victory. Ogles this week confirmed that the FBI seized his cellphone and said it was his understanding

that the probe was “investigating the same well-known facts” surrounding mistakes his campaign made on financial reports. RIP: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who died last month after a battle with pancreatic cancer, was eulogized by Harris in Houston last week. The vice president remembered the Texas Democrat as “unrelenting,” Justin Papp reports.Google News ICYMITim who?: He’s not Republican Rep. Michael Waltz or singer Tom Waits, but most people had little idea who Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz actually is despite his career in Congress and election to two terms as Minnesota governor. So like a lot of people in the profession, our newsroom has been trying to fill the gaps since he was chosen on Tuesday, starting with how people and groups reacting to the choice described him, how the Harris campaign introduced him and how the Trump campaign responded, and what members of the House elected in the same year as he was said. We also had detailed looks at his role on agriculture and health care, and how the pick affects potential contributors on Wall Street.Gambling on elections: A group of House and Senate Democrats wants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to move forward with a ban on political betting markets backed by Wall Street. “Election gambling fundamentally cheapens the sanctity of our democratic process. Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations,” the lawmakers wrote in a Monday letter to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam. Oregon Democrat Jeff Merkley, the lead Senate signatory, previously expressed his concerns in an MSNBC opinion piece.Shah faces Schweikert: Amish Shah, a medical doctor and former state legislator, won the July 30 Democratic primary to face incumbent Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., in the 1st District. The race is rated Tilt Republican by Inside Elections, and there was a crowded primary to get the chance to challenge the incumbent on November’s ballot. Another Arizona Democratic primary, for the open 3rd District seat, is heading for a recount with 42 votes separating Yassamin Ansari and Raquel Terán.Ad watch: House Majority Forward released ads in several House races this week, including a television ad supporting Maine Rep. Jared Golden, a radio ad supporting North Carolina Rep. Don Davis and a digital ad targeting California Rep. Mike Garcia. Florida Sen. Rick Scott announced a statewide ad buy focusing on Harris. And the DSCC released its first ad against Tim Sheehy in Montana, accusing the Republican of advocating to privatize public lands.Security funding: The top senators on the panel that provides funding for the Department of Homeland Security questioned whether the Secret Service needs more money after the attempted assassination of Trump, CQ Roll Call’s Chris Johnson reports. That appears to have led to a delay of the department’s fiscal 2025 funding bill. Picking a successor: Jackson Lee’s children endorsed Sylvester Turner, the former Houston mayor, to succeed her in the House. Turner is among several Democrats who have been in touch with the county party officials who will pick a new candidate to be on the November ballot on the same day that there’s a special election to serve the rest of Jackson Lee’s current term. Another candidate vying for the seat is Amanda Edwards, a former intern for Jackson Lee who lost the Democratic primary to her in March.From Congress to the forest? Former House member Jaime Herrera Beutler is leading the field of contenders in the primary for Washington state lands commissioner. Herrera Beutler, a Republican who lost her bid for a seventh term in Congress two years ago, got about 23 percent of the vote on Tuesday in a seven-candidate field, according to the Washington State Standard.Google News What we’re reading Lame duck alert: Not to look past Election Day, but the folks at the Congressional Research Service are already getting ready for the lame-duck session, updating

their handy chart and report on what actually gets done during the post-election sessions with plenty of references to our CQ Vote Studies. Minnesota markets: While he’s not from a true swing state himself, Walz may be more familiar to voters in parts of Wisconsin that share media markets with Minnesota, Torey Van Oot writes for Axios in the Twin Cities.Wellstone’s imprint: After Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash in 2002, the family of the liberal Democratic senator from Minnesota established a training program for up-and-coming progressives. One of the first attendees, according to The Nation? A high school teacher named Tim Walz. Meddling: A group tied to House Democratic leaders is spending nearly $1 million on ads that boost an underfunded perennial candidate for the state’s at-large congressional district in an effort to help Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. “The group appears to be attempting to game Alaska’s complicated electoral system to ensure Peltola has the best odds of prevailing in November,” Politico reports.Otherwise occupied: Punchbowl News reached out to vulnerable Democrats in Congress and found that many of them are skipping the convention in Chicago later this month. That’s not unlike some swing-district Republicans, who were similarly busy the week their party gathered in Milwaukee.Google News The count: 193That’s the number of times, out of 1,327 chances, that the embattled Newhouse, whom Trump branded a “weak and pathetic RINO” on Saturday, voted against a majority of House Republicans since January 2021, according to a CQ Vote Studies analysis by our colleague Ryan Kelly. The analysis includes votes for which majorities of the two parties were on opposite sides, and it assigns a “party unity” score based on how often a lawmaker votes with or without his side. The data shows 13 House Republicans who were in Congress at the same time had lower party unity scores than Newhouse’s, but he is the only one who committed the mortal sin of voting in 2021 to impeach Trump after his supporters rioted at the Capitol. The 13 include many members whom the GOP will be spending millions of dollars this fall to keep from losing their seats, including Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick (552 votes against his majority), Nebraska’s Don Bacon (268 votes), California’s Young Kim (257 votes), New York’s Andrew Garbarino (251 votes) and California’s Ken Calvert (195 votes). Garbarino, for example, has Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement.”Google News Nathan’s notesAs a high school teacher taking on a Republican in a rural Minnesota district nearly 19 years ago, Democrat Tim Walz didn’t exactly strike political handicappers as a guy who was going places, but Nathan writes that he had good timing.Google News Key race: #IA01Candidates: Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is an ophthalmologist, a former state senator and a veteran who is seeking her third term in the House. She faces Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state representative who teaches constitutional law at the University of Iowa. It’s a rematch of their 2022 contest, which Miller-Meeks won by almost 7 percentage points.Why it matters: The 1st District is one of two competitive seats in Iowa that could determine which party controls the House, and it’s on the DCCC’s list of districts that Democrats are seeking to flip this year. The race is rated Lean Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. Cash dash: Miller-Meeks raised $3.5 million since the 2022 election, while Bohannan, who entered the race in August 2023, has raised $3.4 million. Bohannan had $2.4 million on hand as of June 30 to Miller-Meeks’ $2.3 million.Backers: Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Attorney General Brenna Bird are supporting Miller-Meeks, as are House GOP leaders. Bohannan was endorsed by EMILY’s List and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s Fight Like Hell PAC. She is also part of the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, which provides Democratic challengers in competitive, Republican-held districts with organizational and fundraising support.

What they’re saying: Democrats have centered the campaign on abortion access. A new state law that took effect in July bans abortion once fetal cardiac activity can be detected, which usually occurs around six weeks into pregnancy, before many people even know they’re pregnant. Bohannan’s first ad, released this week, accuses Miller-Meeks of helping to pass that measure, even though she was not in the state legislature at the time. Miller-Meeks received an A+ rating from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and was a co-sponsor of the bill during the last Congress that would have prohibited all abortions nationwide without exception; however, she didn’t sign on as a co-sponsor of the measure during the current Congress. Miller-Meeks accused Democrats of embracing an “extreme” position on abortion and focusing on it as a way to avoid discussing economic issues and border security.Terrain: The district is in the southeastern portion of the state, reaching from the Illinois border to the Missouri border and to the fringes of the Des Moines metropolitan area. It includes the cities of Davenport and Burlington as well as Iowa City, home to the University of Iowa. Along with the 3rd District, it is the least Republican of the state’s congressional districts: Biden lost the 1st by less than 2.4 percentage points, according to Inside Elections.Wild card: In 2020, Miller-Meeks won the seat by a scant six-vote margin. In June, she beat an underfunded and largely unknown right-wing GOP primary foe by 12 percentage points, a race that some observers deemed surprisingly close.Google News Coming upThe primaries just keep coming. Up next week are Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin.Google News Photo finishAfter being chosen as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz fires up a crowd at his debut rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday as presidential nominee Harris applauds. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.“Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe…”Source Link: https://rollcall.com/2024/08/08/at-the-races-dont-forget-the-motor-city-counts-votes-slowly/ http://109.70.148.72/~merchant29/6network/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/gae2f533467bbea064cd597666c3ea8cb1d0a4324b5809bc426da36e4854a613d7041fae51c5478de86fb95801add1a9e_64.png #GLOBAL - BLOGGER Welcome to At the R... BLOGGER - #GLOBAL

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At the Races: Don’t forget the Motor City (counts votes slowly) - Notice Today Internet - BLOGGER https://www.merchant-business.com/at-the-races-dont-forget-the-motor-city-counts-votes-slowly/?feed_id=159915&_unique_id=66b5f3333f0e8 Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.Michigan’s congressional primaries were overshadowed nationally by the debut of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as the running mate of current Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris — but not to the campaign committees and their outside supporters.The NRSC’s independent expenditure arm launched its first ad of the cycle targeting Rep. Elissa Slotkin just hours after she won the nomination to succeed Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and as our friend Bridget Bowman reports for NBC News, it’s part of a $10 million campaign. On top of that, OneNation, which is the policy affiliate of the Senate GOP leadership-aligned super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, launched the first salvo in a $9.4 million campaign also targeting Slotkin.The Democrats, likewise, were quick to unveil ads in Michigan and other states this week. The DSCC’s independent expenditure arm has a new ad as part of a previously announced buy going after the GOP nominee, former House Intelligence Chairman Mike Rogers, for his post-congressional career.Slotkin and Rogers were declared winners of their primaries early on Tuesday night, but don’t expect that to happen when they face each other in a November race rated Tilt Democratic, or when Harris and Walz go up against the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance in a state rated Toss-up.The heavily Democratic 13th District based around Detroit provides a reminder of why. At midnight, The Associated Press estimated that only about 2 percent of ballots had been counted, and the call that incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar won renomination didn’t come until 2:12 a.m. on Wednesday. He ultimately prevailed in the primary by about 20 points.Google News Starting gateBad news for Good: A recount of the June 18 Republican primary in Virginia’s 5th District confirmed Rep. Bob Good, who chairs the House Freedom Caucus, lost to state Sen. John McGuire.And for Bush: Missouri Rep. Cori Bush became the fourth House incumbent, and second progressive Democrat, to lose a primary this year after pro-Israel groups and others supporting Tuesday’s winner, St. Louis Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, spent more than $12 million. Groups backing Bush or opposing Bell spent $3.3 million. Other Missouri primaries picked nominees for the deep-red 3rd District and a Democratic challenger for Sen. Josh Hawley.Is Newhouse next? Washington state’s all-party primaries send the top two vote-getters to the November ballot, so the 25 percent that GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse got Tuesday means he’s not toast yet. But another Republican finished with 31 percent and a third got 19 percent. If that sentiment holds in November, Newhouse starts out with 50 percent of Republicans against him. Washington’s primaries also set a rematch for Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez against Republican Joe Kent and picked nominees for open seats in the 5th and 6th districts, where the races are rated Solid Republican and Solid Democratic, respectively.But wait, there’s more: Nominees were picked Tuesday for huge battles ahead for Senate and the open 7th District, among other seats, in Michigan. Voters in Kansas picked a challenger for Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and tapped a former House member to run for an open seat.And we’re still not done: Tennessee held its primaries on Thursday, and Rep. Andy Ogles held off a challenge from Courtney Johnston, a member of the Nashville Metro Council, winning with 57 percent of the vote. But his troubles didn’t end with the victory. Ogles this week confirmed that the FBI seized his cellphone and said it was his understanding

that the probe was “investigating the same well-known facts” surrounding mistakes his campaign made on financial reports. RIP: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who died last month after a battle with pancreatic cancer, was eulogized by Harris in Houston last week. The vice president remembered the Texas Democrat as “unrelenting,” Justin Papp reports.Google News ICYMITim who?: He’s not Republican Rep. Michael Waltz or singer Tom Waits, but most people had little idea who Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz actually is despite his career in Congress and election to two terms as Minnesota governor. So like a lot of people in the profession, our newsroom has been trying to fill the gaps since he was chosen on Tuesday, starting with how people and groups reacting to the choice described him, how the Harris campaign introduced him and how the Trump campaign responded, and what members of the House elected in the same year as he was said. We also had detailed looks at his role on agriculture and health care, and how the pick affects potential contributors on Wall Street.Gambling on elections: A group of House and Senate Democrats wants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to move forward with a ban on political betting markets backed by Wall Street. “Election gambling fundamentally cheapens the sanctity of our democratic process. Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations,” the lawmakers wrote in a Monday letter to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam. Oregon Democrat Jeff Merkley, the lead Senate signatory, previously expressed his concerns in an MSNBC opinion piece.Shah faces Schweikert: Amish Shah, a medical doctor and former state legislator, won the July 30 Democratic primary to face incumbent Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., in the 1st District. The race is rated Tilt Republican by Inside Elections, and there was a crowded primary to get the chance to challenge the incumbent on November’s ballot. Another Arizona Democratic primary, for the open 3rd District seat, is heading for a recount with 42 votes separating Yassamin Ansari and Raquel Terán.Ad watch: House Majority Forward released ads in several House races this week, including a television ad supporting Maine Rep. Jared Golden, a radio ad supporting North Carolina Rep. Don Davis and a digital ad targeting California Rep. Mike Garcia. Florida Sen. Rick Scott announced a statewide ad buy focusing on Harris. And the DSCC released its first ad against Tim Sheehy in Montana, accusing the Republican of advocating to privatize public lands.Security funding: The top senators on the panel that provides funding for the Department of Homeland Security questioned whether the Secret Service needs more money after the attempted assassination of Trump, CQ Roll Call’s Chris Johnson reports. That appears to have led to a delay of the department’s fiscal 2025 funding bill. Picking a successor: Jackson Lee’s children endorsed Sylvester Turner, the former Houston mayor, to succeed her in the House. Turner is among several Democrats who have been in touch with the county party officials who will pick a new candidate to be on the November ballot on the same day that there’s a special election to serve the rest of Jackson Lee’s current term. Another candidate vying for the seat is Amanda Edwards, a former intern for Jackson Lee who lost the Democratic primary to her in March.From Congress to the forest? Former House member Jaime Herrera Beutler is leading the field of contenders in the primary for Washington state lands commissioner. Herrera Beutler, a Republican who lost her bid for a seventh term in Congress two years ago, got about 23 percent of the vote on Tuesday in a seven-candidate field, according to the Washington State Standard.Google News What we’re reading Lame duck alert: Not to look past Election Day, but the folks at the Congressional Research Service are already getting ready for the lame-duck session, updating

their handy chart and report on what actually gets done during the post-election sessions with plenty of references to our CQ Vote Studies. Minnesota markets: While he’s not from a true swing state himself, Walz may be more familiar to voters in parts of Wisconsin that share media markets with Minnesota, Torey Van Oot writes for Axios in the Twin Cities.Wellstone’s imprint: After Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash in 2002, the family of the liberal Democratic senator from Minnesota established a training program for up-and-coming progressives. One of the first attendees, according to The Nation? A high school teacher named Tim Walz. Meddling: A group tied to House Democratic leaders is spending nearly $1 million on ads that boost an underfunded perennial candidate for the state’s at-large congressional district in an effort to help Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. “The group appears to be attempting to game Alaska’s complicated electoral system to ensure Peltola has the best odds of prevailing in November,” Politico reports.Otherwise occupied: Punchbowl News reached out to vulnerable Democrats in Congress and found that many of them are skipping the convention in Chicago later this month. That’s not unlike some swing-district Republicans, who were similarly busy the week their party gathered in Milwaukee.Google News The count: 193That’s the number of times, out of 1,327 chances, that the embattled Newhouse, whom Trump branded a “weak and pathetic RINO” on Saturday, voted against a majority of House Republicans since January 2021, according to a CQ Vote Studies analysis by our colleague Ryan Kelly. The analysis includes votes for which majorities of the two parties were on opposite sides, and it assigns a “party unity” score based on how often a lawmaker votes with or without his side. The data shows 13 House Republicans who were in Congress at the same time had lower party unity scores than Newhouse’s, but he is the only one who committed the mortal sin of voting in 2021 to impeach Trump after his supporters rioted at the Capitol. The 13 include many members whom the GOP will be spending millions of dollars this fall to keep from losing their seats, including Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick (552 votes against his majority), Nebraska’s Don Bacon (268 votes), California’s Young Kim (257 votes), New York’s Andrew Garbarino (251 votes) and California’s Ken Calvert (195 votes). Garbarino, for example, has Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement.”Google News Nathan’s notesAs a high school teacher taking on a Republican in a rural Minnesota district nearly 19 years ago, Democrat Tim Walz didn’t exactly strike political handicappers as a guy who was going places, but Nathan writes that he had good timing.Google News Key race: #IA01Candidates: Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is an ophthalmologist, a former state senator and a veteran who is seeking her third term in the House. She faces Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state representative who teaches constitutional law at the University of Iowa. It’s a rematch of their 2022 contest, which Miller-Meeks won by almost 7 percentage points.Why it matters: The 1st District is one of two competitive seats in Iowa that could determine which party controls the House, and it’s on the DCCC’s list of districts that Democrats are seeking to flip this year. The race is rated Lean Republican by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. Cash dash: Miller-Meeks raised $3.5 million since the 2022 election, while Bohannan, who entered the race in August 2023, has raised $3.4 million. Bohannan had $2.4 million on hand as of June 30 to Miller-Meeks’ $2.3 million.Backers: Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Attorney General Brenna Bird are supporting Miller-Meeks, as are House GOP leaders. Bohannan was endorsed by EMILY’s List and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s Fight Like Hell PAC. She is also part of the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, which provides Democratic challengers in competitive, Republican-held districts with organizational and fundraising support.

What they’re saying: Democrats have centered the campaign on abortion access. A new state law that took effect in July bans abortion once fetal cardiac activity can be detected, which usually occurs around six weeks into pregnancy, before many people even know they’re pregnant. Bohannan’s first ad, released this week, accuses Miller-Meeks of helping to pass that measure, even though she was not in the state legislature at the time. Miller-Meeks received an A+ rating from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and was a co-sponsor of the bill during the last Congress that would have prohibited all abortions nationwide without exception; however, she didn’t sign on as a co-sponsor of the measure during the current Congress. Miller-Meeks accused Democrats of embracing an “extreme” position on abortion and focusing on it as a way to avoid discussing economic issues and border security.Terrain: The district is in the southeastern portion of the state, reaching from the Illinois border to the Missouri border and to the fringes of the Des Moines metropolitan area. It includes the cities of Davenport and Burlington as well as Iowa City, home to the University of Iowa. Along with the 3rd District, it is the least Republican of the state’s congressional districts: Biden lost the 1st by less than 2.4 percentage points, according to Inside Elections.Wild card: In 2020, Miller-Meeks won the seat by a scant six-vote margin. In June, she beat an underfunded and largely unknown right-wing GOP primary foe by 12 percentage points, a race that some observers deemed surprisingly close.Google News Coming upThe primaries just keep coming. Up next week are Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin.Google News Photo finishAfter being chosen as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz fires up a crowd at his debut rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday as presidential nominee Harris applauds. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.“Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe…”Source Link: https://rollcall.com/2024/08/08/at-the-races-dont-forget-the-motor-city-counts-votes-slowly/ http://109.70.148.72/~merchant29/6network/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/gae2f533467bbea064cd597666c3ea8cb1d0a4324b5809bc426da36e4854a613d7041fae51c5478de86fb95801add1a9e_64.png BLOGGER - #GLOBAL Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. Michigan’s congressional primaries were overshadowed nationally by the debut of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as the running mate of current Vice President and Democratic … Read More