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simply-ivanka · 5 months ago

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Who’s Afraid of Project 2025?

Democrats run against a think-tank paper that Trump disavows. Why?

Wall Street Journal

July 29, 2024

By The Editorial Board

Americans are learning more about Kamala Harris, as Democrats rush to anoint the Vice President’s candidacy after throwing President Biden overboard. Ms. Harris wasted no time saying she’s going to run hard against a policy paper that Donald Trump has disavowed—the supposedly nefarious agenda known as Project 2025. But who’s afraid of a think-tank white paper?

“I will do everything in my power to unite the Democratic Party—and unite our nation—to defeat Donald Trump and his extreme Project 2025 agenda,” Ms. Harris tweeted shortly after President Biden dropped out. She’s picking up this ball from Mr. Biden, and her campaign website claims that Project 2025 would “strip away our freedoms” and “abolish checks and balances.”

***

Sounds terrible, but is it? The 922-page document doesn’t lack for modesty, as a wish list of policy reforms that would touch every part of government from the Justice Department to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. The project is led by the Heritage Foundation and melds the work of some 400 scholars and analysts from an eclectic mix of center-right groups. The project is also assembling a Rolodex of those who might work in a Trump Administration.

Most of the Democratic panic-mongering has focused on the project’s aim to rein in the administrative state. That includes civil service reform that would make it easier to remove some government workers, and potentially revisiting the independent status of agencies like the Federal Trade Commission.

The latter isn’t going to happen, but getting firmer presidential control over the bureaucracy would improve accountability. The federal government has become so vast that Presidents have difficulty even knowing what is going on in the executive branch. Americans don’t want to be ruled by a permanent governing class that doesn’t answer to voters.

Some items on this menu are also standard conservative fare. The document calls for an 18% corporate tax rate (now 21%), describing that levy as “the most damaging tax” in the U.S. system that falls heavily on workers. A mountain of economic literature backs that up. The blueprint suggests tying more welfare programs with work; de-regulating health insurance markets; expanding Medicare Advantage plans that seniors like; ending sugar subsidies; revving up U.S. energy production. That all sounds good to us.

Democrats are suggesting the project would gut Social Security, though in fact it bows to Mr. Trump’s preference not to touch the retirement program, which is headed for bankruptcy without reform. No project can profess to care about the rising national debt, as Heritage does, without fixing a program that was 22% of the federal budget in 2023.

At times the paper takes no position. For example: The blueprint features competing essays on trade policy. This is a tacit admission that for all the GOP’s ideological confusion on economics, many conservatives still understand that Mr. Trump’s 10% tariff is a terrible idea.

As for the politics, Mr. Trump recently said online that he knew “nothing about Project 2025. I have no idea who is behind it.” That may be true. The chance that Mr. Trump has read any of it is remote to nil, and he doesn’t want to be tied to anyone’s ideas since he prizes maximum ideological flexibility.

The document mentions abortion nearly 200 times, but Mr. Trump wants to neutralize that issue. The project’s chief sponsor, Heritage president Kevin Roberts, also gave opponents a sword when he boasted of “a second American revolution” that would be peaceful “if the left allows it to be.” This won’t help Mr. Trump with the swing voters he needs to win re-election.

By our lights the project’s cultural overtones are also too dark and the agenda gives too little spotlight to the economic freedom and strong national defense that defined the think tank’s influence on Ronald Reagan in 1980.

***

But the left’s campaign against Project 2025 is reaching absurd decibels. You’d think Mr. Trump is a political mastermind hiding the secret plans he’ll implement with an army of shock troops marching in lockstep. If his first term is any guide, and it is the best we have, Mr. Trump will govern as a make-it-up-as-he-goes tactician rather than a strategist with a coherent policy guide. He’ll dodge and weave based on the news cycle and often based on whoever talks to him last.

Not much of the Project 2025 agenda is likely to happen, even if Republicans take the House and Senate. Democrats will block legislation with a filibuster. The bureaucracy will leak with abandon and oppose even the most minor reforms to the civil service. The press will revert to full resistance mode, and Mr. Trump’s staff will trip over their own ambitions.

Democrats know this, which is why they fear Trump II less than they claim. They’re targeting Project 2025 to distract from their own failed and unpopular policies.

#Wall Street Journal #Project 2025 #trump #trump 2024 #president trump #repost #ivanka #donald trump #americans first #america first #america #democrats

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news365timesindia · 1 month ago

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[ad_1] The recent electoral outcome has delivered a decisive mandate from the American electorate, one that warrants both respect and critical examination. While opinions on Donald Trump’s policies are often sharply divided, his commitment to representing all Americans resonates with a significant portion of the voter base. This election was not merely a personal victory for Trump; it reflects a broader, inclusive mandate that has attracted support from a diverse coalition across the country. His ability to connect with voters on pressing issues such as the economy, immigration, trade, taxation, and foreign policy has proven instrumental in his success. Notably, Trump’s clear stance against a national abortion ban and his distancing from the controversial Project 2025 garnered him support from moderate and female voters seeking change. This nuanced positioning allowed him to appeal to a demographic that might have otherwise felt alienated. In contrast, Kamala Harris struggled to find her footing. Despite a wealth of celebrity endorsements, her messaging failed to resonate effectively with voters, particularly in the key swing states that ultimately determined the election outcome. Her late entry into the race did little to alleviate the disconnect. Another significant factor in Trump’s electoral strategy was his pronounced stance on legal skilled immigration. His outreach to the Asian American community, especially Indian Americans facing challenges like the employment-based green card backlog, proved critical. This demographic is acutely aware of the stakes for their families and careers, and many harbour hopes that the Trump administration will pursue meaningful reforms. On the leadership front, Trump’s preference for a leader-to-leader diplomatic approach may diverge from traditional norms, but it holds the potential for strengthening international partnerships, particularly with India. His rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggests that the U.S.-India relationship will continue to thrive under his administration. Moreover, Trump’s assertive stance on China and his proposed strategies for addressing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East could lead to significant diplomatic breakthroughs. With the Senate under Republican control, Trump will be able to get his key nominees fairly quickly to advance his Presidential agenda. As he noted in an interview he did with me his commitment to combating radical terrorism could have positive implications for both the U.S. and the world. However, a Trump 2.0 should evoke cautious optimism regarding issues like climate change and how he will handle dissent and those opposed to him. There is hope that he will move away from the divisive rhetoric that characterized the election cycle and instead focus on fostering a better America and a more secure world. The path forward will demand prudent leadership and a willingness to engage constructively to solve complex global challenges. Click here for Latest Fact Checked News On NewsMobile WhatsApp Channel For viral videos and Latest trends subscribe to NewsMobile YouTube Channel and Follow us on Instagram [ad_2] Source link

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news365times · 1 month ago

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indoorverticalfarmingnews · 3 months ago

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The Directions Group Releases 2024 U.S. Election Analysis for Agriculture

Key Takeaways: The Directions Group (formerly Aimpoint Research) released a report analyzing potential agricultural impacts of the 2024 U.S. election. The report outlines policy scenarios covering tax reform, trade, tariffs, sustainability, and labor. A new tax bill in 2025 is expected, with potential impacts on estate taxes and tariffs. The Directions Group will host a public webinar on October…

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tocitynews · 5 months ago

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Project 2025 envisions widespread changes to the government, particularly economic and social policies and the role of the federal government and its agencies.

● The plan proposes taking partisan control of the Department of Justice (DOJ), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI),

● The Department of Commerce,

● The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and

● The Federal Trade Commission (FTC),

● Dismantling the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and

● Sharply reducing environmental and climate change regulations to favor fossil fuel production. The blueprint seeks to institute tax cuts, though its writers disagree on the wisdom of protectionism.

● Project 2025 recommends abolishing the Department of Education, whose programs would be either transferred to other agencies or terminated.

● Funding for climate research would be cut while

● The National Institutes of Health (NIH) would be reformed according to conservative principles.

● The project seeks to cut funding for Medicare and Medicaid and urges the government to explicitly reject abortion as health care. The project states that life begins at conception and

● Seeks to eliminate coverage of emergency contraception under

● the Affordable Care Act and

● enforce the Comstock Act to prosecute those who send and receive contraceptives and abortion pills nationwide.

● Some contributors to Project 2025 have sought to infuse the government with elements of Christianity. Although the actual document offers alternative views that state "that the government’s role is to protect the free exercise of religion"

● Stating that Federal mandates to impose specific religious practices are contrary to the Founding Principles.

● It proposes criminalizing pornography

● Removing legal protections against discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity

● Terminating diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs and affirmative action

● Having the DOJ prosecute "anti-white racism."

● The project recommends the arrest, detention, and deportation of undocumented immigrants living in the U.S.

● using the military to capture and place them in internment camps.

● The Insurrection Act of 1807 would be used to allow the military to engage in domestic policing and capturing undocumented immigrants.

● It promotes capital punishment and the speedy "finality" of those sentences. The Project proposes deploying the military for domestic law enforcement.

Project 2025 as 920 pages of many more maniacal twists of the law and the US Constitution.

#project 2025 #republicans

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visbankingnews · 1 year ago

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Fitch Announces Downgrade of U.S. Credit Rating

Fitch Ratings has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ this week. The agency cited fiscal deterioration, growing debt, and an erosion of good governance as reasons for the downgrade. Specifically, Fitch pointed to repeated debt limit standoffs, complex budgeting processes, and a failure to address rising entitlement costs. A host of credit rating concerns In its Rating Action Commentary, Fitch addressed entitlement concerns: “Over the next decade, higher interest rates and the rising debt stock will increase the interest service burden, while an aging population and rising healthcare costs will raise spending on the elderly absent fiscal policy reforms. The CBO projects that interest costs will double by 2033 to 3.6% of GDP. The CBO also estimates a rise in mandatory spending on Medicare and social security by 1.5% of GDP over the same period.” The agency cited CBO estimates that predict the Social Security fund will be exhausted in just ten years. It also expressed concerns that the 2017 tax cuts could be made permanent before they expire in 2025. Fitch suggested that a recession may occur sometime late in 2023 or early 2024. To support that expectation, the agency cited tight credit, reduced investment by companies, and lower consumer buying. It also cited various labor-related problems lingering since the pandemic shutdowns. Response to the downgrade Despite the stock market’s initial negative reaction to the news, Wall Street largely dismissed the U.S. credit rating downgrade during trading Wednesday. At the same time, however, some strategists worried that the move could embolden leaders of the BRICs trade bloc. Those countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are expected to meet in late August. BRICs nations have spent years arguing in favor of an alternative world reserve currency. It is likely that they will point to the U.S. credit rating downgrade as further evidence that U.S. currency dominance needs to end. Read the full article

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billehrman · 5 years ago

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The Trend is Your Friend

Last week stock prices rose to all-time new highs as bond prices fell. There were material progress and enhancements made on the three key data points that we have been monitoring and discussing over the last several weeks: monetary policy, trade, and Brexit.

We are bemused listening to the pundits/experts each day as their views shift with the wind as they continue to miss the overriding positive trends influencing the financial markets. We expect further gains ahead as investors are significantly under-weighted in equities while being over-weighted in bonds and cash.

While we do expect the overall stock market to continue to rise as it remains undervalued still today, the key to outperformance will be stock selection. As we have gotten more confident that global growth has passed an inflection point from further downgrades to stabilization/acceleration next year, we began shifting the composition of our portfolios away from defensive stocks selling at record high valuations to more economically sensitive companies selling at recession valuations. Technology remains a core holding, too. The common trait among all of our investments is that each company has superior management, winning short- and long-term business strategies, super strong financials and are generating tremendous cash flow to support growth initiatives, higher dividends and stock buybacks.

Let’s first review the three key data points that we are monitoring before reviewing what is occurring by region:

Monetary Policy. Accommodative policies exist everywhere in the industrialized world. More money is being created than used by the real economy which is good for financial assets. We were not surprised that the Fed cut rates again last Wednesday reducing the Funds rate to a range of 1.5-1.75% as global growth remains sluggish and uncertainties from trade to fiscal relief/Brexit are still not resolved. What did surprise us, though, was Powell’s comments in the follow up news conference when he admitted that the Fed would NOT even think about raising rates until inflation was sustained at or above 2%. Remember that inflation has run under 2% for nearly 10 years now. We have discussed over the years that low inflation was NOT transitory as the Fed clearly still believes due to the combination of globalization (competition), technological advancements and disruptors. Our conclusion Wednesday was that the Fed will remain accommodative a lot longer than generally perceived and will permit the economy to advance much longer, even running hot, until/if inflation rears its ugly head which we don’t expect. While we do expect the yield curve to steepen over the foreseeable future as global growth picks up, we believe that medium- and long-term rates will stay contained making equities, especially those with good dividends, more attractive as long term investments compared to even 5% long term bond yields. Never forget that low rates force investors to move out on the risk curve which also favors equities as an asset class.

Trade. We continue to hear favorable comments out of DC and Beijing that trade talks are going well and that Phase One of a trade deal could be signed in the foreseeable future. China even admitted on Friday that a consensus in principle with the U.S had been reached on the core trade concerns. The White House confirmed that talks between Vice Premier Liu and Robert Lighthizer/Steven Mnuchin had gone well. We were pleasantly surprised to hear President Trump chime in and say that Phase One would represent 60% of a long-term agreement. We do not expect an all-inclusive trade deal to be concluded before elections next year, but we do expect talks to continue and the U.S to postpone any additional tariff hereby reducing tensions between the two countries at least through election 2020.

Brexit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally won support for an election on December 12 to hopefully settle Brexit one way or another. We continue to believe that there will not be a hard Brexit no matter what happens as the economic ramifications are just too negative for both Britain and the Continent.

One of our core beliefs is that we believe that Trump knows all too well that his reelection hinges on a strong economy and stock market. He will clearly do all in his power to make sure that this happens which means that he cannot escalate trade tensions, even with Europe. And that his agenda must expand next year to include a new round of tax cuts for the lower and middle class and other plans to boost the economy which hopefully includes an infrastructure and new health program. He may even talk about closing some tax loopholes that benefit the wealthy. Clearly fiscal policy will be wind to the back of the U.S economy to go along with a very accommodative Fed.

Let’s take a quick look at what is happening globally that support/detract from our continued belief that there is no place like home:

The United States

The vast majority of recent data points strongly suggest that the U.S economy will continue to roll along with 2+/-% growth well into 2020 supported by consumer and fiscal spending. Beside the Fed meeting, the key economic stat of the week was the monthly employment numbers which were nothing short of sensational: U.S payrolls increased by 128,000 jobs despite a 42,000 job loss due to the GM strike; hourly wages which may also have been hit by the strike rose 0.2% from the prior month and are up over 3% from a year ago; the participation rate increased to 63.3, the highest level since 2013; and August and September employment numbers were revised up 50,000 and 46,000 respectively. The Labor department said its employment-cost index rose only 0.7% in the third quarter and 2.8% from a year ago. The U.S economy will add over 2 million jobs this year on top of the 4 million jobs created over the prior two years and wages are increasing faster than inflation. All of this bodes well for a great Christmas 2019 and beyond.

Here are some other stats reported last week: personal income increased 0.3% in September; disposable personal income rose 0.3%; PCE increased 0.2%; and the personal savings rate held at a whopping 8.3. It was reported that the U.S economy expanded by a surprising 1.9% in the third quarter as consumer spending rose at an annualized rate of 2.9%; non-residential fixed investment fell at a rate of 3.0% annualized; inventories were reduced penalizing growth and the trade sector continued to hurt growth too. On the other hand, housing and government spending were a tailwind to economic growth in the quarter. The Consumer Confidence Index for October was reported at a very healthy 125.9; the Present Situation index at 172.3 ad the future expectations index stood at 94.9. It was no surprise that the manufacturing sector continued to contract in October with the PMI sitting at 48.3, which was a slight improvement from the prior month; new orders index increased slightly too to 46.2 while the backlog index fell to 44.1.

Thank heaven the consumer plus government spending comprise nearly 90% of reported GNP as they remain strong while manufacturing and trade remain weak. U.S economic growth will remain around 2% for the foreseeable future. Let’s see if some of the manufacturing numbers pick up now that the GM strike has ended too.

China

The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI which is mostly small/medium size companies rose to 51.7 in October as both production and new orders accelerated meaningfully from the prior month. On the other hand, the official government PMI dropped to 49.3 in October which is more represented of government owned businesses and larger companies. The bottom line is that the Chinese manufacturing sector remains under tremendous pressure due to the trade conflict with the U.S. Even if an interim deal is reached with the U.S., we see corporations continuing to diversify their supply chains away from China despite the governments continued attempts to persuade them to stay. Growth in consumer spending and services will NOT be enough to sustain China’s growth above 6% in 2020 and beyond. China 2025 is in doubt!

The Eurozone

The baton has finally been passed from Mario Draghi to Christine Lagarde as head of the ECB which we view favorably as Europe needs guidance from fresh blood with a more global perspective that she brings with her. Chancellor Merkel of Germany and her party are in trouble as evidenced by her party losing an election last week in a resounding way as calls for major fiscal relief were at the forefront of their loss. We are confident that change is finally in the air as the debate throughout Europe is now regarding major fiscal stimulus along with major regulatory reforms. It is hard to imagine the outlook in Europe getting any worse without major upheaval/rebellion from the status quo led by a super conservative Germany. Did you notice that European Consumer Confidence fell to a -7.6 in October? That is a negative sign.

Japan

The Bank of Japan met Thursday and reasserted their intent to throw everything into the Japanese economy to revive it and hopefully move inflation up to 2%. Wishful thinking as the country really needs global trade to improve to boost its own economy as the government is out of fiscal tools and the BOJ can’t do much more than they already have.

So why do we believe that the global economy is in the process of bottoming out and will improve next year?

We are confident that global trade conflicts have already peaked as it serves Trump’s political desires to have a strong U.S. economy along with higher stock prices going into election. President Xi has to stem the tide of corporations leaving China which weakens the country’s long-range planning and jeopardizes his aspirations for China 2025. Clearly both the U.S and Chinese economies will benefit from a cessation in escalating trade conflicts as will the rest of the world too. In addition, we see increased fiscal/regulatory relief in China, India and Europe next year too on top of the huge amount of fiscal stimulus here in the states. The bottom line is that growth is bottoming out and will begin to accelerate next year. Clearly the financial markets have already begun to sniff this all out as evidenced by the rise in bond yields globally to go along with a weakening dollar. Change is in the air and the new trend will be your friend.

As we said earlier, we began adjusting our portfolios weeks ago reducing our defensive holdings selling at their highest valuations in decades and buying some more economically sensitive companies with great managements with strong financials selling at recession valuations well below intrinsic value. We own technology companies; financials; global capital goods/industrials/machinery companies; cable with content; industrial commodities; retail with a housing bent; agricultural related and many special situations. We are flat the dollar although we expect it to decline and own no bonds as we expect the yield curve to steepen.

The weekly Investment Committee webinar will be held on Monday morning November 4th at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time. You can join the webinar by typing https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset composition with risk controls; do independent research including listening to earnings call and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

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berniesrevolution · 6 years ago

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This plan is called a Green New Deal.

So far, a comprehensive progressive vision of a Green New Deal has not been presented. This report articulates a vision for a broad set policy goals and investments that aim to achieve environmental sustainability and economic stability in ways that are just and equitable.

This proposal recognizes:

A Green New Deal is necessary to meet the scale and urgency of environmental challenges facing the United States, based on the best available research.

A Green New Deal can bring job growth and economic opportunity, with particular focus on historically disadvantaged and vulnerable communities.

A Green New Deal is popular among American voters and can mobilize them in 2018.

A Green New Deal can be executed in a way that is environmentally just and distributes benefits equitably.

A Green New Deal is financially feasible and necessary

A Green New Deal is a broad and ambitious package of new policies and investments in communities, infrastructure, and technology to help the United States achieve environmental sustainability and economic stability.

The original New Deal was a series of financial reforms, farmer relief programs, public works projects, and other social programs enacted by President Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930’s. The New Deal was an economic and job stimulus to meet the needs of the time, designed to put Americans back to work, restore dignity, and bring stability during the Great Depression. Even with its mixed effectiveness, the New Deal was not perfect and displayed an exclusionary racial bias whose effects are still felt today.

America faces different challenges today that are unsustainable and existential.

Despite the achievements in environment regulation over the past 50 years, incremental policy changes and small shifts in market trends are no longer sufficient to meet the scale and urgency of the problems facing Americans and the world today. American lives and livelihoods rely upon clean air and water; healthy forests, farms, and fisheries; and communities resilient to the worst effects of climate change—such as extreme weather, drought, and sea-level rise. The effects of pollution and exposure to toxins persist, and climate change worsens. On top of it all, these all affect low-income communities and communities of color disproportionately.

We need to shift to a new sustainable environment and economy.

Sustainability is about utilizing and preserving resources in ways that meet the needs of today’s generation without sacrificing the ability of future generations to meet their needs.

A Green New Deal recognizes that economic stability is not independent of environmental sustainability.

The trade-off between the environment or the economy is a false one. The goal of a Green New Deal is to build the 21st century economy, which by design will mitigate the causes of climate change while building resilience to its effects, restore the American landscape, and improve access to clean air and water—all in ways that prioritize justice and equity, and grow the economy and jobs.

Environmental regulation and climate action often receive less attention because they are perceived to compete with other local priorities--such as crime, schools, jobs, and potholes. A Green New Deal is not a distraction from local priorities but works to solve many of them.

We agree on the problems, now we need to agree on the solutions.

A Green New Deal is more than just renewable energy or job programs. It is a transition to the 21st century economy. It is a holistic combination of solutions at every level—federal, state, and local—and addresses many problems simultaneously. It does this because it must.

It must meet the scale and urgency of the problems facing America and Americans. It must also meet the level of progressive ambition looking to transform the economy and the environment in ways that achieve sustainability, equity, justice, freedom, and happiness.

This section summarizes specific progressive goals. For complete policy details, download the full report.

TRANSFORM TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY

The United States needs to reduce its annual greenhouse emissions from 2016 by 16 percent to achieve our 2025 reduction target communicated through the Paris Agreement[1], and 77 percent to reach our 2050 target.[2] To strive for the global goal of a 1.5-degree future, the U.S. should aim for zero net emissions by mid-century. This requires massive economic and technological transformation in how we create and consume energy, build structures, and transport people and goods. This transformation must accelerate now.

CLEAN & RENEWABLE ENERGY

✔ 100% Clean and Renewable Electricity by 2035

All electricity consumed in America must be generated by renewable sources, including solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, sustainable biomass, and renewable natural gas, as well as clean sources such as nuclear and remaining fossil fuel with carbon capture.

✔ Zero Net Emissions from Energy by 2050

We must end all emissions from fossil fuels. The full U.S. economy can and must run on a mix of energy that is either zero-emission or 100 percent carbon capture by mid-century.[3] This includes residential, commercial, and industrial electricity; thermal energy; and transportation.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

✔ 100% Net-Zero Building Energy Standards by 2030

Buildings can stand and operate for over 100 years, and current building standards are not in line with goals for deep decarbonization. Yet buildings also have the highest potential for low-cost emission reductions of all sectors. We must start constructing and retrofitting to the highest performance standards now to avoid locking in outdated technology and to reach these goals by mid-century. New technological innovation every year will push the potential of building and industrial efficiency, helping American citizens and businesses lower energy costs and be more competitive.

TRANSPORTATION

✔ 100% Zero Emission Passenger Vehicles by 2030

The technologies already exist; we only need to scale-up charging infrastructure and consumer incentives to transition 100 percent of sales to zero emission passenger and light duty vehicles by 2030, followed with a swift phase out of internal combustion engines.

✔ 100% Fossil-Free Transportation by 2050

To reach decarbonization goals, we must transition away quickly from the use of fossil fuels in aviation, heavy duty vehicles, and rail. Not everything can be electrified, meaning we must innovate and scale up the next generation of biofuels and carbon-neutral fuels.

CLEAN AIR AND CLEAN WATER NEED TO BE A RIGHT

While air and water quality have dramatically improved in the U.S. since the passage of landmark environmental regulations in the 1950s and 1970s, progress has slowed.[4] Too many Americans live without access to consistent clean air and clean water. Air pollution from vehicles and smokestacks cause 200,000 early deaths each year and led to negative health effects such as asthma and lung disease.[5] America’s drinking water and waterways are threatened by aging infrastructure and pollution from fossil fuel production. We cannot guarantee clean air and clean water without cutting emissions and fossil fuel extraction.

CLEAN AIR

✔ National Clean Air Attainment

Forty-two percent of the U.S. population--over 130 million Americans--live in areas that still have not attained national Ambient Air Quality Standards as ozone and particulate matter pollution are still too high.[6] While the EPA continually eases air quality regulations, 22 states do not meet ozone standards.[7] Ground-level ozone, or smog, has worsened significantly in recent years as higher average temperatures and more days of extreme heat intensifies smog.[8] Reductions in fossil fuel combustion and certain industrial activities will reduce ozone and particulate pollution across the country, especially in urban areas where air quality tends to be worse.

✔ Cut Methane Leakage 50% by 2025

Methane, a greenhouse gas 28-36 times more potent than carbon dioxide, is the second-largest industrial source of climate pollution from the oil and gas industry. Methane leaks from oil and gas production and distribution cost the U.S. economy approximately $2 billion annually.[9] These leaks are enough to power 6.5 million homes a year. Much of the pollution can be curbed with existing low-cost technologies that can improve air quality and reduce emissions.[10]

CLEAN WATER

✔ National Lead Pipe Replacement & Infrastructure Upgrades

America’s problems with lead in drinking water extend well beyond Flint, Michigan. In 2015, 18 million people were served by water systems with lead violations.[13] We need to remove lead service lines and fix other water problems with a prioritization of underserved communities. This requires meaningful investments in water treatment infrastructure upgrades across the nation. And yet, federal investment in local water infrastructure has declined from covering 63 percent of costs in 1977 to just 9 percent today.[14] By investing in clean water infrastructure, it will stimulate the development of economically-critical projects that will create jobs and increase American economic competitiveness.[15]

✔ Guarantee Access to Affordable Drinking Water

To keep up with the mounting costs of water infrastructure needs, many utilities across the country have been increasing water rates. In some cities, the average monthly cost of water for a family of four has increased 30 percent since 2011.[16] In 2015, 1 in 9 households in Detroit had their water shut off because of prohibitively high water bills. The EPA needs to establish more consistent and comprehensive standards on water affordability, protecting low-income residents from extreme price increases.

✔ Protect Two Million New Miles of Waterways

The quality of our water supply also depends on the restoration, conservation, and sustainable land management of forests and wetlands. The 2015 Clean Water Rule, if fully enforced, would extend protections to two million new miles of streams and tributaries, and 20 million acres of wetlands. Protecting our watersheds and waterways, particularly upstream, benefits our natural environment, human health, and food supplies, as well as enhances the resiliency of our built infrastructure. Waterways and their related forests and wetlands constitute a natural infrastructure that saves money and produces additional benefits such as reduced emissions, jobs, and habitat protection.[17]

RESTORE THE AMERICAN LANDSCAPE

It is hard to envision America without picturing its glorious landscape—whether it is the rolling plains and hills, wide rivers, snow-capped mountains, sandy coastlines, great lakes, or rich forests. The American landscape is not only our heritage but also a vital resource. Our lives and livelihoods rely upon the landscape for food, fiber, minerals, homesteads, protection, wildlife, and recreation. Clean air and clean water are not possible without healthy, robust lands. This landscape is our largest natural emissions sinks, literally absorbing millions of tons of greenhouse gases out of the air annually. We must tend to it.

FORESTS

✔ Reforest 40 Million Acres of Public and Private Land by 2035

America’s forests are 25 percent smaller than they were when settlements began around 1630, and only a fraction of what remains is old-growth forest, while the rest is regrowth of deforestation.[20] Forested lands continue to come back slowly, but it is well below the pace needed. To reach a net-zero emission economy by mid-century, we must reforest land—in other words, the remaining emissions our economy still creates are canceled out by the emissions absorbed by land. Similarly, many forests are badly in need of restoration, threatened by drought, wildfire, and invasive species, which are only exacerbated by climate change.

Expanding forests by 40-50 million acres by 2035 could achieve reductions of 600 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050. With forests as part of a holistic plan, the full land carbon sink could offset up to 45 percent of economy-wide emissions annually by 2050. [21]

WETLANDS

✔ Restore 5 Million Acres of Wetlands by 2040

Wetlands—including swamps, marshes, and peatlands—are vital ecosystems for all types of wildlife and biodiversity. They support seafood, recreation, and tourism industries; protect American shorelines from storm surge; filter water; and absorb carbon. America has lost over half of its original wetlands.[22] The rate of loss is increasing, and a third of what remains is in poor condition.[23],[24],[25]

SUSTAINABLE FARMING & SOIL

✔ Expand Sustainable Farming and Soil Practices to 30% of Agricultural Land by 2030 and 70% by 2050

A thriving agricultural sector relies upon healthy soil. Healthy soil also supports carbon sequestration, flood protection, reduced erosion, and pest and plant disease control. Beyond the field, the excess use of pesticides and fertilizers affect soil and water quality, leading to such effects as deadly hypoxia and algal blooms in the Gulf of Mexico and the Chesapeake Bay. It also diminishes property values and recreational uses of nearby waters, costing the U.S. at least $2.2 billion annually.[26] Sustainable farming and soil practices are not only practical but also economically beneficial to farmers.

Increasing uptake of key soil carbon-beneficial conservation practices to 70 percent of U.S. cropland could result in an increased soil carbon sink of over 270 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equiv. per year by 2050—this represents half of current agricultural emissions. [27]

BROWNFIELDS & HAZARDOUS SITES

✔ Cleanup Brownfields and All Hazardous Sites

A brownfield is a previously occupied property of which its redevelopment or reuse is complicated due to the presence of a hazardous substance, pollutant, or contaminant. There are an estimated 450,000 brownfield sites in the United States[28] and 1,343 sites listed on the Superfund National Priority List, which are locations with significant hazardous material contamination.[29]

Neighborhoods adjacent to brownfields are more likely to be low-income and minority neighborhoods.[30] Cleaning up and redeveloping these sites is not only important for human health and the environment, but it can increase local tax revenues, grow jobs, lift property values, and ease development pressure off undeveloped lands.[31],[32]

[READ FULL REPORT HERE]

#politics #the left #Data for Progress #green new deal #progressive #progressive movement #ecosocialism #democratic socialism #socialism

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sunpopthan-l-blog · 6 years ago

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Impact of Trade War To Thai Economy

WHAT HAPPEN TO US AND CHINA?

After China has officially opened the country for global economic integration in 1978 (Macfie, 2008), the country emerged and developed very quickly, climbing itself up to be number two in the world in economic size from 2010 (Chu & Katty, 2011), creating strong fear to United States on their ability to control economy.

Worry On “America First” Policy

In 2017, after Donald Trump became president of United States, he concentrates very much on America First policy to promote US economic success and political stability prior to other nations (Shapiro, 2017). And because China stepped up to become US strongest trading partner since 2015 (Gray, 2018), Trump started blaming China to cause US to face strong trade deficit with the fact that US imports to China is almost three times of its exports—$522.9 and $187.5 billion, respectively (Rapoza, 2018). With this, Trump started impose tariff on Chinese importing technological products to US to effectively reduce China’s ability to achieve its plan on Made in China 2025 project, aiming to be number one in production of technological devices around the world. This leads to creation of China’s retaliation on imposing tariff back on Chinese importing agricultural products from US, due to non negotiable talk on tariff reduction with Trump (Swanson, 2018).

WHY IS TRADE WAR CONCERNED TO MANY COUNTRIES ACROSS THE WORLD, INCLUDING THAILAND?

With this, it creates very strong impacts towards many open countries that have few or a lot of dependency directly towards international trade and indirectly towards tourism services, as US and Chinese products would be part of their trade and price fluctuations of those goods will play at least few roles in benefits instability towards different types of business operations on international trade (Mesquita, 2019).

From above, it proves that the higher level dependencies, the more that country would get affected from this trade war. Thailand is the country with one of the strongest level of dependencies of physical international trade and tourism services, covering 61.7% (Trade Maps, 2019), and 10.4% (Turner, 2018), respectively, towards Thailand’s total gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017, due to the country’s enthusiasm to turn its country to be strong exporting country after facing strong financial crisis in 1997 (Ijaz & Jayasankar, 2001). As mentioned earlier, benefits of Thai parties received from international trade are fluctuating. So, there are three main types of business operations that Thai companies would be linked and tied to the performance of country’s export and import—foreign direct investment, trading goods, and tourism services.

1) Foreign Direct Investment

With the first type, Thai companies will most likely be benefited in long term because with fewer availability of agricultural products being exported from US to China, those supplies will be reduced in Chinese economy, affecting insufficient supply of those to the existing same level of its demand. This encourages Chinese government to start supporting more local companies to be trained in agricultural industry to increase its own agricultural production without needing to be strongly dependent on US imports. To do this, China would still wanting to remain its specialization in technology for its Made in China 2025 plan, it would not be possible to provide enough spaces for full support of complete agricultural production plan, and thus additional production base on this will have to be operated elsewhere. When talking about agriculture, cost effectiveness should be primary concern for the industry and Southeast Asian countries would be the very suitable target for the plan. However, with the fact that consumption size of Chinese consumers are very huge and so almost every countries in this region, including Thailand, would all be receiving more investments from China, making country’s economy to be more productive from this industry. However, according to Thai law, foreigners cannot completely own business in Thailand and so they would be joining with Thai agricultural companies (Sangasilpa, 2018).

Moreover, if looking on different view, Chinese technological companies will also use Thailand, and other countries that have economic relationship with China (Theparat, 2018), and agreement with US on maintaining low tariff rates against the country’s exporting products to US. These companies will send ready-to-assemble goods to those hubs to make final assembly before shipping to US market. So, those goods that turned to be finished goods will be recognized as final products of that respected country instead of China (Pinghui, 2019).

All in all, this will help local firms to get higher revenues, and also getting more unemployed people to be employed into these, either, newly operating companies or existing companies that require more workers to fulfil more orders to send to China.

2) Trading Goods

With trading goods, it focuses more on short term benefits, rather than long term benefits from foreign direct investment, because of Chinese and US goods being at rapidly higher prices, it makes Thai products to be more competitive in the world market because those high-volume products would need to be immediately substituted with similar goods of lower prices. This also allows Thailand to have better opportunities to promote its own products, both of unique and mass to be more popular in the future world market before those goods can settle down their prices through expansion strategy on foreign direct investment (Sangasilpa, 2018).

3) Tourism Services

With tourism services, it tends to provide additional costs towards Thai operating businesses for a while because rising in prices of US and Chinese goods means that companies operated in those countries will be dropped in performance, affecting their local people to have lower income overall, thus having more worse quality of life. This discourages them to travel, especially outside their countries because it will consume a lot of unnecessary spendings for them. And because majority, 27% in 2017, of international tourists visiting Thailand are of Chinese tourists, reducing number of travelers from China would greatly affect Thai tourism industry and thus the total GDP of Thailand. Therefore, those local businesses that deal with providing tourism services, in terms of tangible goods (such as souvenirs) and intangible goods (such as activities for tourists), will not be doing very well in this period of time because their revenues will at least be partially reduced (Chuwiruch, 2018). With this problem, these companies should either fulfill the demands from elsewhere; including changing to or adding new target customer group, or diverse the risk by expanding or changing to completely different industries that do not involve with tourism.

CAN WE SAY THAT THAILAND IS BENEFITING FROM THIS TRADE WAR?

From all explanation above, if base on macro focus, Thailand will overall be benefitted from this trade war because even though Thai tourism industry gets hurt by losing certain amount of potential Chinese customers, this burden will be covered by strong additional benefits on foreign direct investment and trading goods mainly on agricultural and technological industries that are tied to world trading system. This would overall show that Thai GDP would still perform better when trade war has started.

However, if base on micro focus, even though Thai GDP performs better, it will not be able to ensure well-being of all business industries in the country because of the fact that when one side wins, other side has to lose out. So, those companies in tourism industry that could not be prepared for this phenomenon will be protesting against their government, asking for fair solution and provide them with aid to survive their business.

HOW CAN ALL COMPANIES BE FAIRLY TREATED FROM TRADE WAR?

To end this issue as peaceful and sustainable as possible, government and operating businesses should not only wait for direct impacts to be reached, but should instead plan the business to be able to embrace any major economic and political phenomena that can happen in the future, and any in-depth details that could differ future from past phenomena would be figured out in time.

References

Chu, Katty. (2011). Most Americans rate China’s economy first. Retrieved from https://www.pressreader.com/usa/usa-today-us-edition/20110214/284610304053775

Chuwiruch, N. (2018). Trade war stalks Thai tourism industry as Chinese arrivals plunge. Bloomburg. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-20/trade-war-stalks-thai-tourism-sector-as-chinese-arrivals-plunge

Gray, S. (2018). These are biggest U.S. trading partners. Fortune. Retrieved from http://fortune.com/2018/03/07/biggest-us-trade-partners/

Ijaz N., Jayasankar, S. (2001). Back from the brink: Thailand's response to the 1997 economic crisis. Directions in development;. Washington, DC: World Bank. Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/13973

Macfie, N. (2008). Timeline: China milestones since 1978. Thomson Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-reforms-chronology-sb/timeline-china-milestones-since-1978-idUKTRE4B711V20081208.

Mesquita, M. (2019). How a trade war would impact global growth. World Economic Forum. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/how-trade-war-would-impact-global-growth-tariff/

Pinghui, Z. (2019). Meet the Chinese villagers who fear they can never escape the poverty trap. South China Morning Post. Retrieved from https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/2188732/beijing-increase-support-manufacturing-upgrade-even-though-made-china

Rapoza, K. (2018). Surprise: Many Chinese actually like Trump, and hope for his ‘great deal’. Forbes. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/10/30/surprise-many-chinese-actually-like-trump-and-hope-for-his-great-deal/#2dec07997169

Sangasilpa, L. (2018). The impacts to Thailand from the impending US-China trade war. SCB Economic Intelligence Center. Retrieved from https://www.scbeic.com/th/detail/product/4730

Shapiro, A. (2017). As Trump adopts ‘America first’ policy, China’s global role could change. National public radio. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/2017/01/23/511267259/as-trump-adopts-america-first-policy-chinas-global-role-could-change

Swanson, A. (2018). U.S. and China expand trade War as Beijing matches Trump’s tariffs. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/15/us/politics/us-china-tariffs-trade.html

Theparat, C. (2018). Japan's FDI lead tenuous as EEC targets other nations. Bangkok Post. Retrieved from https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1572022/japans-fdi-lead-tenuous-as-eec-targets-other-nations

Trade Maps (2019). World Trade Organization. Retrieved from https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_maps_ e.htm

Turner, R. (2018). Travel & Tourism: Economic impact 2018. Retrieved from https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-research/regions-2018/world2018.pdf

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businessweekme · 6 years ago

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Trump’s Trade War Is Just Fine With Xi Jinping

Anyone who expects China to concede defeat in its trade war with the U.S. should read about Biobase Group.

The Chinese manufacturer of laboratory equipment once struggled to win orders even at home in an industry dominated by foreign products. But the company’s prospects have brightened as the trade war prompts customers to turn to domestic alternatives.

“The local market was heavily reliant on imports,” Biobase’s chairman was quoted as saying. “Now, it’s different. Opportunities beckon.”

The story is from the state-run China Daily, so take it with a trailer-truck-sized grain of salt. But it makes an important point: The Chinese government is happy when its citizens buy locally made instead of American products.

Of the many misperceptions driving Donald Trump’s trade policy, this may be the most dangerous: China isn’t desperate to maintain its interdependent relationship with the U.S. Rather, it’s a national objective to become more economically independent.

That’s a quite different China than the one in Trump’s imagination. To the White House, the country is still so reliant on the U.S. for growth and jobs that its leadership can be pounded into submission with tariffs. It’s only a question of when President Xi Jinping comes begging for mercy.

In real life, Trump’s tariffs are unlikely to inflict enough pain on China to compel Xi to make concessions. Its huge domestic market is becoming more important to Chinese growth. But beyond even that, Beijing’s entire economic strategy is designed to replace critical foreign technology and products with homegrown alternatives it can control. Simply, the Communist Party prefers Chinese to buy Xiaomi phones and Geely cars, not iPhones and Buicks.

That’s exactly what the much-feared “Made in China 2025” program is all about. The plan is to develop new, high-tech industries to compete with and eventually replace foreign rivals, at home and abroad. In that sense, it’s official policy to limit overseas involvement in the economy.

The trade war, therefore, comes as a “blessing in disguise,” as the China Daily put it. Trump’s trade sanctions have given Beijing another excuse to drag its feet on free-market reforms, to support local companies and to harass and exclude foreign business — all things Chinese leaders are inclined to do anyway.

If anything, Trump’s tactics have only reinforced the critical importance of this quest for greater independence. Take the ZTE Corp. kerfuffle. After the Chinese telecom giant violated U.S. law, Washington almost forced the company out of business by banning U.S. suppliers from selling it crucial components. Eventually, a settlement was reached.

The Chinese learned their lesson — just not the one Washington intended. Rather than scaring Beijing into cooperating on trade, the incident reinforced how badly the country needs its own technology. “We [should] hold innovative development tightly in our own hands,” Xi said amid the ZTE troubles.

Even more, China’s economic program is aimed at developing export markets other than the U.S. The China Daily was sure to mention how the Biobase chairman had a map in his office marking countries participating in Xi’s pet infrastructure-building program, the Belt and Road Initiative.

The goal of that plan is to entrench the country in new developing economies in order to expand the role of Chinese business. In this way, Beijing is striving to create its own economic bloc.

None of this means Beijing won’t negotiate a trade deal with Trump. Nor does Beijing’s policy make sense from a purely economic perspective. Chinese growth prospects would be better served by further integration and cooperation with the U.S., to maintain access to American consumers and technology. And since momentum in China’s economy already appears to be weakening, it can ill afford the added headwinds created by slowing world trade.

But Beijing sees its development plan as critical for national security and the country’s rise on the world stage. There’s no place in this great mission for Intel Corp., Apple Inc. or General Motors Co. That means Xi may be in less of a hurry to seek a trade deal than Trump assumes, and will only conclude one that doesn’t endanger his broader economic agenda.

The bottom line is that China is content to go its own way on its own terms. Without Trump and the U.S.

The post Trump’s Trade War Is Just Fine With Xi Jinping appeared first on Bloomberg Businessweek Middle East.

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#Economy #China #trade war #Trump #us #Xi

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sciencespies · 3 years ago

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Op-ed | Sound space industry regulation matters for the 4th Industrial Revolution

https://sciencespies.com/space/op-ed-sound-space-industry-regulation-matters-for-the-4th-industrial-revolution/

Op-ed | Sound space industry regulation matters for the 4th Industrial Revolution

The 4th Industrial Revolution, or Industry 4.0, is underway. The first industrial revolution involved machines powered by steam and water, the second began with the harnessing of electricity, the third was launched with advent of computers and supercomputing, and now the fourth encompasses the Internet of Things, machine-to-machine communications, 3D printing, Big Data analytics, autonomous robots, life science developments, and more.

What role is there for space and satellite industries in Industry 4.0? Plenty.

Take IoT. IoT refers to connected devices that can transmit data with no human assistance or intervention and each such device has a unique identifier that makes it recognizable.

IoT devices are broken into five categories: consumer (e.g. home appliances), commercial (e.g. vehicle to vehicle communication), industrial (e.g. precision agriculture), infrastructure (e.g. sensors for smart cities initiatives) and military.

Currently, there are roughly 20 billion connected “things” or devices with expectations for more than 80 billion connected devices by 2025. Walmart has over 7 million connected devices alone in the United States to monitor its refrigeration systems. Satellites have global coverage and thus for many “things” — ships on the high seas, drilling stations in Alaska — satellites are the only possible means of sending and receiving “messages” from these connected things.

But even in the most advanced countries, there are large gaps in quality connected services. Indeed, many rural areas may have little to no reliable, consistent coverage. New low Earth orbit satellite systems are encouraging and positive developments in the fight to achieve “universal service.”

All the connected devices create more and more data — Big Data — to provide more accurate information for precision farming and smart mining.

Smart transportation and smart cities efforts are also underway. It’s clear there will be many further advances in the next decade or two when autonomous vehicles become predominant, a development that is necessary to keep traffic in the largest cities moving. Autonomous vehicles allow three times the number of autos per lane per hour than human controlled vehicles.

Shipping ports, already lacking necessary infrastructure and further harmed by the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on essential workers — through illness, contact tracing and work-distancing measures — are sorely in need of further digitization to replace paperwork and more complete tracking of inbound and outbound ships and containers (both empty and full). In the pre-COVID world, nearly 800 million twenty-foot equivalent (TEU) containers were handled by ports across the globe in 2018 but a very limited number of those containers were tracked, at least through the first and last mile. Conditions inside containers can also be monitored through connected devices. More generally, satellites provide the necessary backhaul and backup to terrestrial connectivity as well as complementing terrestrial services for greater efficiency allowing for gains in the “smart” movement of goods. In some parts of the globe, satellites are the only viable capability for tracking and monitoring this movement.

Industry 4.0’s relationship with the space industry is symbiotic. The space and satellite industries also lean on other features of Industry 4.0. 3D printing is an element of Industry 4.0. Space vehicle and satellite manufacturers are using 3D printing in their facilities. One company, Relativity Space, is heavily reliant on massive 3D printing equipment to manufacture its medium launch vehicles. Further, 3D printing has already been tested aboard the International Space Station for in-space manufacturing uses.

Artificial intelligence is also part of Industry 4.0. In this regard, so-called digital twins are used for spacecraft and satellite servicing and manufacturing. Specifically, a digital representation of the actual spacecraft or satellite is created, and artificial intelligence is utilized to analyze new models and simulations with the assistance of IoT-collected actual flight data from existing spacecraft and satellites.

Industry 4.0 and the space industry also face regulatory issues. The IoT device market is expected to exceed $1.3 trillion by 2026 and the space industries are expected to be a $1 trillion market by 2030 and perhaps $3 trillion by 2040. To put this in perspective, the global auto market ( the largest manufacturing sector in the world) is expected to grow to $9 trillion by 2030 — with 38% of the market being new car sales, undoubtedly with many autonomous features and connectivity demands.

Stifling regulation or poor liability regimes could hamper the growth of both the IoT and space industries. Forty percent of companies use IoT now; that number will double in the next 5 years. Industry 4.0 and IoT relies on the space industry and that’s why regulation of the space industries must become a concern to nearly all industries.

Low-cost access to space to launch and replace the necessary satellites is critical. Launch regulation and liability regimes impact the ability of innovators to continue to reduce the cost of access to space. Remote sensing satellites add to the Big Data collected with each Earth observation. Licensing of such systems, until recently at least, was under stress due to significant delays and concerns over the appropriate benefit-cost analysis being applied to various types of satellites and their imaging capabilities.

Spectrum allocations (as well as continued opening of new bands and sharing of existing bands) are also crucial. Spectrum is the lifeblood of a satellite; a satellite that cannot communicate is valueless. An appropriate balance of spectrum allocations and opportunity between satellite and terrestrial 5G must be achieved as both will be needed for IoT and the Big Data economy to flourish.

Space industry regulation deserves further reform and updating to allow the industry and the broader Industry 4.0 to flourish. U.S. liability regimes that provide certainty to space launch companies and their contractors and customers will expire in roughly four years and will need renewal. The U.S. launch licensing regime has recently undergone streamlining but the launch industry awaits clarifying “advisory circulars” that lay out certain ways to meet technical criteria in the regulations.

True streamlining and certain and timely regulatory processes are important for innovative launch companies from SpaceX and Blue Origin to Relativity Space and many other small and medium sized launch companies.

Remote sensing licensing regime regulatory reform efforts led to new regulations in the past year allowing lower-risk systems to take a speedier path to a license. However, worries exist that outdated benefit-cost analysis within the interagency process will lead to a more restrictive implementation of the new rule over time.

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) continues to work it’s way through terrestrial 5G needs for new spectrum as well as satellite spectrum demand. Reform of the whole spectrum management system in the United States — divided between FCC (private sector and state/local government spectrum) and National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) (federal government spectrum authority) — is on the table if an industry advisory committee has any say. That industry advisory committee has also made recommendations to improve the interagency MOU that exists between the FCC and NTIA to reduce conflicts in spectrum policy and ensure that the full importance to the national economy is taken into account during decision-making.

Additionally, creating a certain and minimally burdensome licensing regime for new on-orbit activities, such as on-orbit satellite servicing, active debris removal, and on-orbit laboratories and factories, awaits. Congressional efforts to lay out rules and assign an agency responsibility for that existing regulatory gap have not succeeded the past couple of years.

Further updates to and monitoring of space debris mitigation guidelines and regulations at both the national and international levels to improve space sustainability also await.

Common issues to Industry 4.0 and the space industry, such as cybersecurity and privacy, are issues needing further thought at both the domestic and international levels. The same is true for export controls, especially as novel products and services are created. In short, space and space regulation matter to Industry 4.0, especially the IoT and Big Data economy. No surprise the new space economy is being labeled Space 4.0. Space is a market multiplier and a customer for Industry 4.0 but it can only play that full role with minimally burdensome regulations and stable liability regimes that incentivize continued innovation and investment in the space sector.

Matthew Schaefer is the founding co-director of the Space, Cyber and Telecom Law program at the University of Nebraska College of Law. He is also the Veronica Haggart & Charles Work Professor of International Trade Law.

This article originally appeared in the September 2021 issue of SpaceNews magazine.

#Space

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xtruss · 4 years ago

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OPINION

Why the US Has No Chance of Winning Either a 'Cold' or a 'Hot' War Against China

— 07.16.2020 | by Ekaterina Blinova | Sputnik

While ramping up pressure against Beijing on multiple fronts, Washington appears to not be taking into account China's sustainability and resilience, which stem from its sophisticated culture, says sociologist Dr. Heinz Dieterich, explaining why the US' current China strategy is erratic and doomed to failure.

On Monday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that "most" of China's maritime claims in the South China Sea are null and void. The People's Republic claims up to 80% of the 3.5-million square kilometre sea, in accordance with the so-called "nine dash line".

"The world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire", Pompeo stated.

In response, the Chinese embassy in the US warned the Trump administration against "stirring up tension and inciting confrontation in the region."

Washington Stepping Up Pressure Against Beijing

The latest spat came on the heels of tit-for-tat sanctions against senior politicians implemented by Washington and then Beijing over Xinjiang as well as the US show of force in the South China Sea earlier this month. The Trump administration is continuing to tighten the screws on China's trade, high-tech sector, and artificial island building. According to public opinion polls, anti-China sentiment is now on the rise in the US, with about 66% of Americans thinking unfavourably about the People's Republic, prompting speculations about a forthcoming "cold war" with Beijing.

However, at the same time, the US Chamber of Commerce has recently demanded that top Chinese officials redouble efforts to implement phase one of the trade agreement which was concluded between Washington and Beijing in January 2020.

"Any scientifically sound metric of international standing – economic, scientific, demographic, political, military or Covid-19 – shows, that the US is in no condition to either win a 'cold' or 'hot war' against China", says Dr. Heinz Dieterich, director of the Centre for Transition Sciences (CTS) at the Autonomous Metropolitan University in Mexico City, and coordinator at the World Advanced Research Project (WARP).

Washington´s China strategy is erratic and being coupled with the internal partisan and social divide which has manifested as a systemic crisis in the US, he remarks.

The crisis is systemic, because it has affected political, economic, cultural and social dimensions. It dramatically evidenced the breakdown of the intra-elite consensus between Democrats and Republicans on how to preserve the global US domination-system. It has also aggravated longstanding social inequality, skyrocketing national debt and swirling protests, the professor notes. Besides endangering the country's internal stability, it threatens to affect the global balance of power and world peace, Dieterich warns.

The Demise of the Transatlantic Partnership

While the US is now praising the UK's decision to ban Chinese telecom equipment from its 5G networks, the Trump administration cannot boast good relations with the European Union, as it has largely alienated Germany, "the undisputed leader" of the bloc.

On 29 June, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned that the current tensions between the US and Germany are unlikely to be solved in the foreseeable future, no matter who wins the November vote: "Everyone who thinks everything in the trans-Atlantic partnership will be as it once was with a Democratic president underestimates the structural changes," Maas told the German press agency DPA.

The Trump administration has repeatedly lambasted Berlin over NATO spending, migration and economic policies, as well as its participation in the Russia-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, which was recently subjected to US sanctions.

At the same time, the US open policy of intimidation against China, Russia, North Korea and Iran has proven ineffective and failed, according to the academic. Iran's delivery of about 1.5 million barrels of Iranian gasoline and related components to Venezuela, a country suffering from a US embargo, in May and June 2020, clearly indicated that Washington's policy of "maximum pressure" against nuclear or powerful states does not work.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gives a news conference about dealings with China and Iran, and on the fight against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in Washington, U.S., June 24, 2020

Despite sabre-rattling and muscle flexing in the South China Sea, the US is unlikely to engage in a direct confrontation with the People's Republic as it is doomed to failure, according to Dieterich, who recollects that the US has de facto "lost" four wars in Asia: China's civil war (1946-49), the Korean War (1950-53), the Vietnam War (1955-75), and most recently in Afghanistan.

"My Center for Transition Sciences (CTS) has developed a multi-variable 'Geopolitical Index of Relative Power of Nation-States' (GIRP), which we presented in Moscow in 2014 that clearly shows that the US and its allies would have won a nuclear war against China in the 1950s. But, even against the lightly armed peasant army of Mao Zedong, they could not win the Korean War," the professor notes.

The US as a superpower is today only "a shadow of what it was after 1945", according to the academic, who claims that it has turned from a “tiger with nuclear teeth” (as Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchov defined it) into a “paper tiger” (as Mao Zedong called it).

US Underestimates China's Sustainability

Touching upon the massive pressure the US has exerted on China's economic, social and political spheres, as well as raising stakes in the South China Sea, Dieterich presumes that Washington underestimates China's resilience based on its sophisticated culture and "dialectical spirit of Confucius, Lao-Tse, and Gautama Buddha" which have many times helped the nation overcome dramatic historical challenges and paved the way to its socio-economic and political transformation.

He notes that if one takes a look at the past two centuries, one would see that the Chinese managed to fend of the Japanese intervention, survived the Civil War, and proved sufficient in the Korean and Vietnam wars. IT successfully underwent the Cultural Revolution under Mao Zedong and then further socio-cultural transformation under Deng Xiaoping. Currently, he says, Chinese society is making a dramatic technological leap striving to accomplish its Made in China 2025 strategic plan under Xi Jinping.

"These successes have produced an overwhelming support of the people for the government, a strong national unity behind a clear strategic leadership, based on the scientific principles of Marxism, and an international global power and standing in all important metrics," Dieterich says.

Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to present a medallion during a conference to commemorate the 40th anniversary of China's Reform and Opening Up policy at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Tuesday, Dec. 18, 2018

The Chinese are not sitting on their thumbs while the US is trying to build an anti-China coalition; the People's Republic is actively forging multilateral alliances and strengthening ties with Russia and the Germany-led European Union.

Thus, Beijing is pushing ahead with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a proposed free trade agreement in the Indo-Pacific region, which brings together the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its FTA partners, namely, China, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. Furthermore, the People's Republic is signalling a "positive and open attitude" towards joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), an "updated" version of the Obama-era Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) shredded by Donald Trump when he assumed the office.

To preserve the global balance of power, Washington should adhere to a symmetrical multi-polar world and give up plans of "subjugating China, Russia and Europe, in order to recuperate its former world supremacy", according to the professor. "Democracy and Justice in the world system are only possible between entities, which roughly have the same amount of power," he remarks.

"The only stable and viable solution for the species to survive is a new eco-civilisation, based on a global non-market economic system, in which the private tyranny of the market – a global plutocratic elite of profit mongers – and anti-democratic oligarchic political systems do no longer rule the destiny of the people," Dieterich concludes.

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dheerajkochhar · 5 years ago

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ITS LOCK ON for Indian Real Estate

LOCK – ON means 'Disambiguation' which refers to the removal of ambiguity by making something clear.

We never would’ve imagined a day when 1/3rd of world’s population would be in a lockdown. While the wrath of the lockdown has totally changed our lives, putting our work and finances in a jeopardy, our future will depend largely on how we utilize the time available today. The lockdown gives us ample of time to ponder upon key decisions taken and to be taken, explore avenues for reviving the finances, make mindful investments and rectify the unpreparedness with which we are facing today’s situation. Make a choice now, whether you want to repent over what went wrong or make lemonade out of the lemons life (or the virus) has thrown upon us. If you choose the latter, then this article is for you to read ahead.

This pandemic has rightly taught us that uncertainties come unexpectedly. How prepared are we to face an adverse situation again?

Businesses are adversely hit and job security has gone for a toss, leaving us in a catch 20 situation. Talking about investments, the FDs, Stocks, shares that we invested in are witnessing negative returns. Our priced possessions like jewelry and gold are locked up in banks and not helping us get through the situation. Fancy cars are stationed in parking lots, unused. The alternate investment options like SIPs, Mutual Funds too aren’t performing.

Remarkably, one thing that has stood between us and the disaster is HOME. A sense of safety and security that a home brings for a family is irreplaceable. It is a physical as well as an emotional comfort zone where one heals and recuperates through tough times. Man, right from the stone age has been wandering in search of a home (caves), to protect himself, establish a family, dwell in and flourish.

A critical question arising out of the Covid19 scenario is what will be the fate of home buying and Real Estate post the lockdown?

Studies and reports suggest that the real estate sector will decline; witnessing the worst hit till date and survival will be a challenge. However, as said by Benjamin Franklin, “Out of Adversity comes Opportunity”. The sector also flashes rays of positivity and you would be intrigued to know about the potential to INVEST in Real Estate, against all the current odds.

Real Estate will be the most reliable investment option, considering the conditions of banks, share market crash and capital depreciation or any other option that may appear to be safe initially.

Why will the Indian Real Estate sector grow faster than that of the world?

1. The world economy will go into recession this year with a predicted loss of trillions of dollars of global income due to the coronavirus pandemic, spelling serious trouble for developing countries, with the likely exception of India and China, according to a latest UN trade report.

2. The virus pushes U.S.-Chinese relationship towards fracture; the fallout from the global pandemic threatens the recent U.S.-Chinese trade deal and could undermine future global stability. This rift will lead India to gain interests of global investors and companies. These investments open doors for better infrastructure, leading to the opening of multiple employment opportunities. These factors directly balm the upward movement of real estate in India.

3. China lost its goodwill and trust from investors and the corporate world, owing to the (rumored) conspiracies in the way the country handled the spread of COVID 19 to the world. After China, India is the only country with the capacity to handle the magnitude of the Global scale, in terms of manpower, resources, transport systems, etc.

4. India so far, has augmented trust in handling corona and has bravely fought pandemics in the past too. Indian Real Estate gains appreciation form world economists for its perception as a Nation full of values and ethics, leading India with great avenues to become a Global Superpower.

5. NRI investment in real estate is bound to improve amidst Rupee fall.

While the above conditions make India a lucrative hotspot of real estate investments, below are few points to consider towards real estate buying:

Emotional Investment: In India, owning a home is a matter of pride and esteem. The sentiment runs around passing the home possession as a heritage from parents to the future generations. Interestingly, after our first name, ‘Home’ is second most used Word in the world every day. Ultimately, whatever be the circumstances people across the World will not stop investing in a home or buying real estate.

Statistics: The Indian Real estate growth trajectory, since the past few years was likely to emerge stronger and is projected to be USD 650 Bn by 2025 and USD 1,000 Bn by 2030. Residential, commercial and Retail are the three key asset classes, which have primarily been contributing to the sector’s growth. Real estate contributed nearly 6% to India’s GDP in 2017. As per the projected growth trends, the sector’s contribution is likely to rise to 13% of India’s GDP by 2025.

· Real Estate – Largest Employment Generator: After agriculture, Real estate is the largest employment generator in the country, creating tremendous opportunities for the skilled and unskilled workforce. India’s Real Estate employee base is estimated to be 67 Mn by 2022.

· High Tangible Asset Value: Real estate is not paper money, this is the asset you can hold tangibly which again increases its reliability and return on investment.

· Competitive Risk- Adjustment Returns : Based on July 2018 data from National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF), private market Commercial Real Estate returned an average of 9.85% over the past five years. This credible performance was achieved, together with low volatility relative to equities and bonds, for highly competitive risk-adjustment returns.

· Attractive and Stable Income Return (Specially in Commercial space): The rental yield from real estate is much higher than returns on any traditional sources of investment. Commercial investment can yield upto 12% ROI and lowest to 5% ROI (with capital appreciation) depending upon the construction stage and lease terms of the property.

· Inflation Hedging: The inflation hedging capability of real estate stems from the positive relationship between GDP growth and demand for real estate. As economies expand, the demand for real estate derives rents higher and this, in turn, translates into higher capital values.

· Long Term “Assured” Wealth Building Asset with “Predictable “ Returns and least Risk :- Real Estate helps you build wealth in long term due to dual advantage of Regular “Predictable” Returns (yield is higher than Dividend Returns) and an “Assured” Capital Appreciation in long term, don’t be scared of Corporate Scams, while they can affect the company’s stock price or your bank’s health, but it cannot junk out the value of real estate you own

· “Helps you Raise Money Quickly” - Hard Asset is the most preferred collateral for a Bank, to raise capital through a loan (LAP/LRD) your property is the best asset you could own!

· The Ever Rising FSI Benefit - “Wine and Real Estate improve with Age” - While as per accounting standards real estate is not a depreciating asset, in practical life too an older development can reap benefits of redevelopment wherein due to ever increasing FSI norms of MMR the incoming developer would not only offer rent for transit accommodation and corpus as hardship allowance, but also offer at least 25% to 30% enhanced Area (which is of great value as remember, 1 sq.ft of Real Estate in Central Mumbai is valued more than 10 gram of gold) !!

· Work from Home Culture: We are in the middle of the largest test of home-working in history and corporates are adopting, refining and testing policies, processes and infrastructure to make it work. We expect quarantine protocols to encourage work-from-home initiatives and for these practices to be adopted in new geographies as the contagion spreads. Large multinationals who recently, and publicly, announced the scaling back of home-working practices now indicate a desire to embrace widespread use of this practice until the outbreak passes. So commercial demands and co-working space or bigger house may increase.

· Student Housing: An unusual market development that is gradually emerging is student housing in India. Real estate consultancy firm, Anarock Property Consultants says that of the 37 million students pursuing higher education in India, more than 75% live away from home. Existing hostel facilities can accommodate only 18%-20% of this migrant student population. Developers in Mumbai & Pune have already ventured into this space that offers 7% returns.

· Co-living market size across India’s top 30 cities is expected to grow more than double by 2025 to $13.92 billion from current $ 6.67 billion. The demand for co-living in terms of beds is slated to grow to 5.7 million from 4.19 million, while the share of private beds is likely to rise from 15% to 30% of total demand in the co-living segment, showed a Cushman & Wakefield India report.

· REITs are a great investment avenue not only for institutional investors but also for retail investors, who find it difficult to invest in the commercial real estate, which has a better rent yielding than residential properties. Unlike other equity investments, REITs provide assured returns to the investors through a compulsory dividend distribution policy. REITs are mandated to distribute 90% of their net distributable income as dividend. There is also a further upside potential for the investors from periodic property valuations. India's first listed REIT, has gained 50% since listing in March 2019 as against a 10% gain in the Nifty Realty Index and 5% return of the benchmark Nifty 50.

· India’s improved rank on Ease of Doing Business and the courage to implement reforms such as DeMo, RERA, and IBC are indeed creditworthy. These are expected to yield fruitful results in the future and help establish Indian real estate as a preferred destination for global investors, occupiers, and homebuyers.

WHY REAL ESTATE DURING LOCKDOWN?

Probably most of the people interested in buying real estate would be holding their decision till the lock down opens due to speculations in the market or risk pertaining to economic conditions. Yet for any clever investor who is observing the current market will testify buying of real estate during lock down to be the smartest move. Here is why –

1. Reduction in Home loan rates: On 27 March 2020, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the repo rate by 75 basis points (bps). The reduction saw the repo rate reduce from 5.15% to 4.40%. New home loan rates start at 8% from 1 March 2020. So indeed this is good time to buy your home if the decision was just hiding behind the corner for some better rates or good units.

2. Low Demand – Value for Money: Real estate is facing deficit demand in the market which leads to generation of various attractive offers by Developers. To maintain the good books, builders are currently offering very low rates, lucrative payment plans and additional offers resulting in lowering the cost of property. End-user can expect to buy a property as low as the launch price during this lock down.

3. Reduction in Stamp Duty: The Maharashtra government on March 6 announced that it is reducing stamp duty on properties by 1% for Mumbai, MMRDA Region and Pune for a period of two years.

4. Passive Income: Various small investment options are being introduced in the market starting as low as 5 lacs in real estate that too with a rental income. This is again an opportunity to create a separate asset class in your portfolio and start a source of passive income.

5. Demand- Supply breakthrough: Due to low demand, discounted rates on good inventories are available. But once the economic condition will start settling, the bargain will reduce and demand will also start floating upwards. The rates will not be as low as they are now during lock down.

6. Segment Shift : Earlier Lower middle class people used to buy 10 to 12 Lakh property. Now middle class will buy those as an investor and rent it out to lower middle income group. Similarly shift will take place on affordable segment likewise. Middle income group will emerge as new investor community.

7. Strike the Iron when it is Hot: We all must have heard this at least once. But it’s time to implement the strategy to gain extensive returns on the investment. Not only the rates are strikingly low, the return on investment that are being offered by some Developers is as high as 15-18%.

Final Thoughts:

Your Money is SAFE IN Indian Real Estate

- Regulator like MahaRERA leading the cause of timely justice,

- High Court Judiciary being extremely proactive and pro-consumer / investor,

- NCLT giving prompt hearings and orders favoring customer and financial institution and lastly

- The Supreme Court judgment re-affirms the rights of the homebuyers as financial creditors under the bankruptcy code....

Simply put, it means that homebuyers share equal rights of recovery in the developer's assets which are liquidated as part of the bankruptcy process

The Bottom Line

Real Estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away, purchased with common sense, paid in full, and managed with reasonable care , IT IS ABOUT THE SAFEST INVESTMENT IN THE WORLD.

Real estate is a distinct asset class that is simple to understand and can enhance the risk and return profile of an investor’s portfolio. On its own, real estate offers competitive risk-adjusted returns, with less principal-agent conflict and attractive income streams. Though ill-liquidity can be a concern for some investors, there are ways to gain exposure to real estate yet reduce ill-liquidity and even bring it on-par with that of traditional asset classes. Real Estate investing even on a small scale, remains a tried and true means of building an individual’s cash flow and wealth.

“BUY Real Estate in areas where the Path EXISTS , AND Buy MORE Real Estate where there is no PATH, but YOU can Create Your OWN. Don’t WAIT to BUY Real Estate , BUY Real Estate and WAIT.

Thoughts Compiled By :

Dheeraj Kochhar

Capitor Ventures Pvt Ltd

Navi Mumbai

References :

Anarock Report March 2020, Varsha Rathore, Zricks.com, Pic Credits: Google stories and newspapers

#realestate #realestateafterlockdown #coronaimpactonrealestate #mumbaiproperties #capitorventures #stayinvested #buyrealestate #realestatebadhiyahai

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nigeiadigitalmarketingcompany · 5 years ago

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Links 7/22/19

Digital Elixir Links 7/22/19

The Washington Monument displayed a mesmerising tribute for the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing Business Insider (KW).

Hawaii telescope protest shuts down 13 observatories on Mauna Kea Nature

NASA’s Lunar Space Station Is a Great/Terrible Idea IEEE Spectrum

The Black Hole Engulfing the World’s Bond Markets Bloomberg

Investing in the age of deglobalisation FT

A simulation of the insurance industry: The problem of risk model homogeneity (PDF) Torsten Heinrich, Juan Sabuco, J. Doyne Farmer. A new and unexpected source of fragility.

Brexit

Labour’s Brexit capitulation is the end of Corbynism Lee Jones, London School of Economics and Political Science

The Ham of Fate NYRB

Sure, Boris Johnson Is Funny. But Has He Ever Done a Job Well? NYT

Ukraine election: Zelensky’s party set to win big in parliamentary vote EuroNews. Mark Ames:

For 3 years, Ukraine’s parliament has been led by neo-Nazi speaker Andriy Parubiy, founder of the Social-National Party—and all this time, the Anglo-American media maintained a shameful blackout on reporting it. Today, Ukrainians are booting the Nazi out https://t.co/eCTLPZmJo1

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) July 21, 2019

‘A Pre-Revolutionary Situation’: More Than 20,000 Rally in Moscow for Free Elections Moscow Times

China?

Triads linked to violent pro-China gangs as Hong Kong protests enter dangerous new phase Sydney Morning Herald. A thread on yesterday’s march:

Ahead of today’s march, Hong Kong protesters have put together this video reading out their manifesto.

The same manifesto was read out during the parliament siege on Jul 1.

This version is in English and very much aimed at an international audiencehttps://t.co/5fdwc0SfKa

— Jerome Taylor (@JeromeTaylor) July 21, 2019

Two of three men arrested over Hong Kong’s biggest bomb plot, discovered on eve of major anti-government protest, are members of pro-independence groups South China Morning Post

* * *

What Trump’s tale about the US trade war’s role in China’s economic decline got wrong South China Morning Post

Why an “AI Race” Between the U.S. and China Is a Terrible, Terrible Idea. The Intercept

China to tackle corruption in Belt and Road projects FT

What are click farms? A shadowy internet industry is booming in China Yahoo Finance

Abe fails to win two-thirds majority needed to revise constitution FT

The IMF Takeover of Pakistan The Diplomat

India

Live coverage: India’s Chandrayaan 2 moon mission counting down to liftoff Spaceflight Now

India Monitoring for ‘Signs of Fragility’ Among Shadow Banks Bloomberg

Between deprivation and decadence: the bleak view of India’s future The Interpreter

Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico prepares for massive protest to expel governor AP

It Was Never Just About the Chat: Ruminations on a Puerto Rican Revolution Counterpunch. Well worth a read. (I encountered it as a cross-post, sourced to Counterpunch. To find the original, I googled for a sentence, and there was no hit for Counterpunch. Then I went to Counterpunch, and there it was. So Google’s black list is still in effect.) From the article: “But the jokes about needing carrion birds to devour the dead, that was the lit match. The chat messages didn’t start this.” The joke, about what to do with all the corpses after Hurricane Maria:

Some highlights from the leaked Rosselló admin chats:

1. Christian Sobrino (who’s just resigned) joking about taking corpses backlogged at Forensic Sciences earlier this year and “feeding them to the crows” that go to the Oversight Board to crow. pic.twitter.com/wRo7koY2uD

— midnucas #RickyRenuncia (@midnucas) July 13, 2019

(Translation.) #awkward.

In Secret Chats, Brazil’s Chief Corruption Prosecutor Worried That Bolsonaro’s Justice Minister Would Protect Bolsonaro’s Senator-Son Flávio From Scandals The Intercept

Trump Transition

Merger Mania in the Military Industry Consortium News

Waco resident gets census test with citizenship question, despite Supreme Court blocking question on 2020 Census Waco Tribune

Why the 2020 census will have fewer personnel and offices Federal Times

Election security to take back seat at Mueller hearing The Hill (Furzy Mouse).

How Trump’s businesses are booming with lobbyists, donors and governments Guardian

The biggest civil trial in U.S. history will start with these Ohio counties WaPo

Sackler name no longer sparkles at the Louvre France24. How about Harvard?

Democrats in Disarray

Moderate Democrats Warn That AOC Is Distracting From Their Nonexistent Message New York Magazine. “… the Democrats’ burgeoning wing of affluent suburbanites….” For whom Pelosi and the DCCC optimized in 2018, with results that were predictable and predicted.

2020

Sanders’ early life in Brooklyn taught lessons, some tough AP

Elizabeth Warren’s Banking Sector Napalm The Reformed Broker

Health Care

Turning 26 Is A Potential Death Sentence For People With Type 1 Diabetes In America Buzzfeed

Fix The Insulin Problem Eschaton. Because you know the compromise solution will kick in by 2025, just like the minimum wage hike.

Migration

To folks in this Guatemalan town, success stories start with a trek to the U.S. Los Angeles Times

Imperial Collapse Watch

Nikki Haley’s Foreign Policy ‘Principles’ and China The American Conservative

Neoliberal Capitalism at a Dead End Monthly Review

Class Warfare

Prime Day for a union? Not yet at this Amazon warehouse Fast Company

‘This is unprecedented’: Alert, Nunavut, is warmer than Victoria CBC (CL).

Major U.S. cities are leaking methane at twice the rate previously believed Science

Twenty injured as 1,800 firefighters battle huge wildfires in Portugal with terrified residents forced to flee their homes Daily Mail

Between the Devil and the Green New Deal Commune (UserFriendly).

Antidote du jour (via):

Bonus antidote:

youtube

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

Links 7/22/19

from WordPress https://ift.tt/2GnjBX8 via IFTTT

#Digital Marketing #SEO #Social Media Marketing #Nigeria Digital Marketing Company #Lead Generation

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billehrman · 5 years ago

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The Trend is your Friend

George Soros’ (a former partner for 9 plus years) unparalleled success was predicated on his uncanny ability to recognize a new trend before anyone else; add to his position over time often using leverage as long as he believed it was not fully recognized by others, and then selling the position when it was recognized by others and selling at full value. Naturally, he was quick to reverse his view if he felt he was wrong.

We, at Paix et Prospérité, have the same philosophy however we are primarily stock investors rather than buying/selling futures/options on stocks indices, currencies and commodities as George did. We combine both a top-down global perspective analyzing economic, monetary, fiscal, trade and regulatory policies by region combined with a bottom up stock specific approach to investing utilizing our independent research. We do hedge our portfolios if we deem it prudent. And, as we have said before, our long-term record of outperformance speaks for itself.

As you know we turned bearish last year when the Fed tightened policy way too much jeopardizing our economy while Trump was tweeting incessantly about trade tariffs against any country, most notably China, that was not trading on a level playing field with us and stealing our IP. However, we shifted our stance at the end of last December after the Fed finally reversed its monetary stance easing policy, lowering rates, and acknowledging that it would do all in its power to sustain the economic expansion while trying to raise the inflation rate up to its 2% target. We wrote many times this year that all monetary authorities globally were now overly accommodative providing more liquidity to the system than was needed by the global economy such that the excess liquidity would move into financial assets thereby increasing prices for stocks and bonds while forcing investors further out on the risk curve. We recognize that there is a lag time between monetary authorities easing policy and the global economy responding by expanding once again. This was further complicated by a sharp slowdown in global trade such that the countries relying on exports/production, like China, Germany and Japan, suffered much more than the countries, like the U.S, who were much more reliant on consumption. It also helped the U.S that Trump added tremendous fiscal stimulus and regulatory reforms to our economy whereas Germany and Japan had refused to budge. China’s economy was hurt the most as its economy was so reliant on production/exports and the shift to consumption was just in its early years. Our portfolios were concentrated domestically in defensive stocks with yields far above the 10 and even 30-year Treasury rates. The U.S was by far the best/safest house on the block to invest in.

We began to shift our view 8 weeks ago when we recognized that the global economy was nearing an inflection point such that growth was finally basing and would begin to accelerate as we entered 2020. Therefore, we slowly began to transition our portfolios to more economically sensitive stocks domiciled in the U.S selling at recession valuations with above average yields generating significant free cash flow while also shrinking their market capitalizations. Technology was then and remains today the largest area of concentration in our portfolios as corporations would invest in it earning a significant return on their tech investments while enhancing their competitive position.

Beside our view that all this excess monetary creation would find its way into financial/risk assets, we held firmly to our belief that the stock market multiple would trend up over time to 20 times earnings moving above the historic trend of 13 to 17 times earnings as interest rates were 300-600 basis points below their historic norm while bank capital/liquidity ratios(risk) were moving well above historic highs, too. We eventually became far less concerned about trade tariffs/conflicts recognizing that most of the tariffs were eaten by the overseas manufacturers, the strength of the dollar and supply chain movements.

These trends/core beliefs were and remain our friend as we are more convinced today that:

· The global economy is bottoming out and 2020 will be a better year;

· Trade is far less a problem to the U.S than perceived with China at risk as its economy continues to weaken thereby jeopardizing China 2025 putting the U.S in the driver’s seat due to the inherent strength of our economy bolstered by strong consumer demand and tremendous fiscal stimulus;

· Global monetary policy remaining overly accommodative in excess of economic needs therefore boosting the value of financial assets while forcing investors further out on the risk curve;

· Low inflation is not transitory due to global competition, technological advancements and disruptors everywhere;

· Stocks market multiples will trend higher over time as the Fed/ investors become more convinced that low inflation is here to stay such that interest rates will remain 300-600 basis points below their historic norms with bank capital/liquidity ratios remaining at all-time highs

· Most corporations are running lean and mean with dividend yields above the 10- and 30-year government bond rates while generating large amounts of free cash flow;

· Investors are significantly over-weighted bonds just as the yield curve has begun to steepen and under-weighted equities even after the 20+% advance this year

Let’s take a look again at the four key issues that investors are focused on: trade, monetary policy, Brexit and Trump.

Trade: We believe that the odds of a Phase 1 trade deal continue to increase as evidenced by both the comments and actions out of the U.S and China last week. China began the process Friday of waiving tariffs on imports of U.S pork, soybeans, cotton, corn, and sorghum. Let’s be clear that China needs our agricultural goods as food inflation has risen out of sight. Trump, on the other hand, realizes that the U.S is in the catbird seat such that the President said at the NATO conference that he may be willing to wait until after elections to finalize a trade deal with China. In our opinion, China cannot afford to wait running the risk that companies will only accelerate their supply line shifts elsewhere and the Democrats, if elected, may take a more aggressive stance against China especially for environmental reasons (coal).

Trump also showed that he is more than willing to use tariffs to combat trade issues. He proposed duties of $2.4 billion against French products in retaliation to a French tax against U. S tech companies and he also reinstituted tariffs on steel and aluminum from Argentina and Brazil as he criticized them for cheapening their currencies to the detriment of U.S farmers.

Japan’s Parliament approved the trade deal with the U.S.

Monetary Policy: All of the major monetary bodies continue to support overly accommodative policies. ECB President Christine Lagarde joined Fed Chairman Powell stating that the ECB will be “resolute” on hitting its 2% inflation mandate. Good luck! By the way, the Fed pumped another $70.1 billion liquidity into the markets last week.

Brexit: It appears that Johnson will receive a mandate at this week’s upcoming election on 12/10 to pass his Brexit bill. If not successful, we still do not expect a hard Brexit as it would hurt both the British and European economies which both can ill afford.

Trump: We continue to believe that Trump recognizes that he needs a strong economy and stock market to win the election, therefore, it is doubtful that he will do anything that would jeopardize his chances to win. We expect him to propose a new round of tax cuts benefitting the lower and middle classes and pay for it by closing loopholes that benefit only the wealthy, an infrastructure plan, and a healthcare/drug pricing plan.

Now, let’s take a brief look at the most recent data points that confirm that the U.S is doing just fine while other economies continue to struggle. However, they appear to be bottoming out especially if, as we expect, global trade picks up after Phase 1 of a trade deal is reached between China and the U.S, and we pass the one-year anniversary of tariffs making year over year comparisons easier.

United States: The economic data points reported last week were overwhelmingly positive supporting our view that the U.S economy can sustain 2+% growth in 2020 and, even more if a Phase 1 of a trade deal is reached and if the U.S/Canada/Mexico trade deal is passed; U.S consumer sentiment hit a seven-month high of 99.2; the index of buying conditions rose to the highest level in a year; longer term inflation expectations fell to a record low of 2.3%; consumer credit increased to $18.9 billion in October which is up to a 5.5% annualized rate; wholesale inventories rose slightly after falling 0.7% in September; the trade gap fell to $47.2 billion as both imports and exports fell; the consumer confidence index rose to 61.7; factory orders rebounded 0.3% led by a surge in capital goods orders sans aircraft (Boeing issue); the IHS Services Index rose to 51.6 in November; the new orders index rose to 57.1 and the employment index was at 55.5%.

On the other hand, the IHS Manufacturing Index fell to the lowest level in a decade at 48.1; new orders were at 46.7 and employment at 46.6. We firmly believe corporations are reducing their inventories at a record clip which may present an upside surprise early next year.

The big shocker reported last Friday was the employment data: payrolls rose 266,000 after a 41,000 positive revision to the prior two months; the GM strike ending only added 41,300 to the numbers; the jobless rate dipped to 3.5%, the lowest level since 1969; and wages rose at a 3.1% annualized clip beating inflation. The U.S has added over 2 million jobs this year boosting annual incomes by over $600 billion. Some slowdown!

China: No real changes in our view that their economy continues to decelerate with financial risks rising without a trade deal. China’s default rate is about to break a record exceeding $17 billion this year. China needs a deal and fast.

Eurozone: Germany’s economy continues to slide as evidenced by a 0.4% decline in orders and industrial output due to weak demand. We cannot fathom why this country does not institute a huge fiscal stimulus program to offset rising deflationary pressures. We were pleased to see that Merkel’s party is losing elections. Change is needed here and fast!

Japan: We were pleasantly surprised to see Japan’s government pass a $120 billion fiscal stimulus plan funded by selling bonds. Thank heaven the interest cost will be so low that it won’t hurt the country’s budget. Are you listening Germany, France, India?

Investment Summary

We see no reason to alter our current investment view/ portfolio structure since all the trends/core beliefs that we saw 8 weeks ago are still progressing as we had anticipated. Our portfolios are concentrated in technology, especially semis; global capital goods, industrials and machinery companies; housing related retailers as well as other retailers who have successfully transformed themselves and will be revalued over time; financials; low cost, cash flow positive industrial commodity companies; some healthcare companies with major new product introductions; and many special situations where management is focused on closing the gap between current valuation and intrinsic value. We do not own bonds as we expect the yield curve to steepen nor are we long the dollar any longer.

Our Investment Committee webinar will be held on Monday morning, December 9th at 8:30 am EST. You can join by typing https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; do independent research and…

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

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