#Trump approval rating trends

[in-sightjournal]

Ask A Genius 1270: Early Trump Administration

 Rick Rosner: It’s worth noting that in the United States, tragic events occur regularly—consider school shootings, for example. While mass casualty events like these are not everyday occurrences, they generate significant social and political fallout. According to the Associated Press, large-scale air disasters are rare in the U.S., making incidents like this particularly impactful. Trump is…

[theconstitutionisgayculture]

"The best part is everyone knew what Trump was going to do and he still won in a landslide."

He did not win in a landslide. A 0.9% swing in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan would have let Harris win. No win this narrow has ever been called a landslide.

"Also he has his highest approval rating ever right now."

The highest presidential approval rating ever was 90% under George W Bush after 9/11. Trump's current approval rating is 49%, which is the same as his highest approval rating during his last term, which also happened in the honeymoon phase after his inauguration. In fact, of all the US presidents with recorded approval ratings, Trump has the lowest max approval rating at 49%, and the lowest average approval rating at 41%.

Let's go backwards here. Reread my quote on approval ratings:

"Also he has his highest approval rating ever right now."

And here's his RCP average

As for your other claim, let's take a look

1.7 not 0.9

1.4 not 0.9

This is the only swing state that he won by 0.9%. Good job at getting one right, at least.

For fun, let's look at the other two swing states he won

5%

4%

And now we look at trends

About a third of those red arrows in California represent a double digit shift towards Trump, by the way.

Now let's look at Biden's swing state results from 2020. I'm not going to crop images because I'm getting tired of that, but I'll link you my source so you can see it yourself

Wisconsin:

Biden: 49.45%

Trump: 48.82%

0.63%

Pennsylvania:

Biden: 50.0%

Trump: 48.8%

1.2%

Arizona:

Biden: 49.36%

Trump: 49.06%

0.3%

Nevada:

Biden: 50.1%

Trump: 47.7%

2.4%

Michigan:

Biden: 50.6%

Trump: 47.8

2.8%

The only swing state where Biden outperformed Trump 2024 is Michigan.

For fun, let's take a look at the popular vote. It doesn't matter to presidential elections, but with the right context it can be used as evidence for trends. Let's take a look at Obama's 2008 popular vote total, which is his highest.

66,862,039

What did Trump get in 2024?

77,303,573

Trump got 10,441,534 votes more than Obama in his best year.

And for even more fun, let's look at Trump's popular vote in 2016

62,985,106

vs 2020

74,224,319

So even when he "lost" in 2020, he still gained 11,239,213 votes.

But that's just fun. What really matters is that Trump won every single swing state by a comfortable margin for a modern election. He won, in fact, the maximum possible number of states that any candidate could win in the current electoral climate while picking up gains in almost every county in the country, including in the deep blue parts of deep blue states. His approval ratings are high, the majority of the country supports most of his key positions, especially on immigration, and The Resistance, including the Democrat party, is in complete disarray. Not only did he win a landslide, but he was at the head of a massive cultural shift in the country. Every left wing sacred cow is being slaughtered, and the people are cheering it on.

Trump is a generational figure in American politics. And as a bonus, he did it by cracking apart Obama's "forever coalition" and destroying the last dregs of his rotten legacy.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Trump’s victory heightens fiscal adjustment pressure in Brazil

Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad notes global challenges for Brazil since 2023

The election of Donald Trump in the United States increases the urgency for Brazil to announce fiscal adjustment measures. This is seen as a way for the government to counter the rising trend of interest rates and the depreciation of the Brazilian currency following the U.S. election results.

In this context, the position of Finance Minister Fernando Haddad could be strengthened against the resistance from social sector ministers regarding the proposed measures. It may also put additional pressure on Congress to expedite the approval of these measures, which are expected to be presented as a proposal to amend the Constitution (PEC).

“We need to wait a little and take care of our own house, take care of Brazil, take care of finances, take care of the economy to be as minimally affected as possible by any external scenario,” Mr. Haddad said on Wednesday morning while evaluating the election outcome.

The minister added the global scenario has been “challenging” for Brazil since 2023, which influenced Congress to approve several fiscal measures that year.

Continue reading.

[mitchipedia]

Trump has the second-lowest approval rating and highest disapproval rating of any newly elected President.

Who had the lowest approval rating? Trump in this first term.

John Gruber: “Don’t let anyone tell you this guy is popular or that the country is trending his way. Just isn’t true. Never was.”

[mariacallous]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1810387774329204925.html

Joe Biden headed into the 2022 midterms with historically high numbers of voters saying the country and the economy were headed in the wrong direction. His approval ratings were at, or near, historic lows for a President in the midterms. Yet Dems did historically well. Why? Voters on both sides of the aisle believe their worldview is under threat and attack. The threat is existential. The candidates and party’s who lead the fights to protect them are far less important than the world view they’re trying to preserve.

This is why Republicans vote for the most flawed candidate in US history. No matter his deficiencies Trump is the candidate who fought and won for their side. Same for Biden. Elites and the media have been fueling an apocalyptic narrative for a decade. Why are they surprised that the base resents being told who they should be supporting because of a stylistic, or even substantive failing? For many pundits this is just a DC parlor game. Another exercise in following the insider herd mentality of politics. This hierarchal structure of politics has worked for most of our country’s history - but it’s collapsing in the digital age where voters are tired of being bullied by these gatekeepers. All politics is national now. The hierarchical structure of politics is gone. Republicans went through this process in 2016. A horrifically flawed candidate won a multi candidate field and became the nominee. The pundits & media said he could not win. The polling showed he could not win. Historical trend lines showed he could not win. He won.

Trump won because his base was intact. All campaigns in a negatively charged environment are base elections. If you don’t have a secure energized base you don’t have a campaign. You can’t appeal to swing or Independent voters until your base is secure. Ironically, the backlash of Dem base voters to the media and pundit meltdown might have the effect of firing up the base for Biden in a way nothing else could have. And if you have a fired up base four months before an election anyone saying you can’t win isn’t a serious person Biden has consistently outperformed his polling on Election Day throughout 2024, usually by wide margins. Trump has consistently underperformed his polling on Election Day throughout 2024, usually by wide margins. These are significant data points in assessing base support.

The recent polling shows Trump picking up GOP support. Ok, that’s expected. Same polls show Biden picking up Independent support. Extremely important data point. But what about Democrats? The after debate polls show Biden losing Dem support and going to…undecided. It’s a damn good bet that this vote comes back - probably very soon - but just in November. What’s the best way to get them back? Attack. Attack. Attack. For all the reasons outlined above there is every reason to believe that Biden begins to close the polling gap as Trump becomes the issue in the campaign. So when the naysayers point out Biden’s weaknesses and hammer them home continually they’re driving down Dem support levels

The WSJ poll shows Biden getting 86% of Dem voter support. Good numbers but down from 93% in February. If Biden consolidates this 7%+ of the base AND continues to pick up IND voters (both more likely than not) the race becomes not only competitive but begins to advantage him So when people ask “What’s the plan?” That’s the freakin plan. It all happens when the issue becomes Trump and the campaign goes on offense rather than listening to the arsonists lighting their own house on fire. This isn’t hypothetical btw. It’s predictable voter behavior. This isn’t some grand bank shot theory. It’s how voters are predisposed to vote anyway. The race is gonna bounce around for a bit. That’s normal. But it will consolidate along these lines and narrow.

Throwing a Hail Mary pass is sometimes a good idea in the last desparate throes of imminent defeat. But that’s never the case at the start of the second quarter. That’s essentially where the campaign is at.

[darkmaga-returns]

If only resurrecting the Democratic Machine was as easy as plugging in for a charge. But as Democrats are finding out, their effort to build vast numbers of charging stations was a flop. The Democrat batteries are out of juice, and they have no alternative mode of transportation. They probably wish they had invested in a Hybrid, but that is not how they roll. They are radical, and they went all in. That’s a shame. No, not really. It’s a sight watching them all hobbling down the road.

Today’s Democrats have no Plan B. They were so sure they had the message and the votes to keep them entrenched in Washington for years to come. They neglected to read the room. Not only did the Democrats lose the Popular Vote, the Electoral College, every swing state, and virtually every demographic, but the polls show they are at the lowest approval rating in history, while Donald Trump and his policies are enjoying the highest ratings ever. Not only did Republicans win the 2024 Election, but they also won the race. The Democrats hit the wall in the final lap.

The Democrats still push philosophies like DEI, BLM, LGBTQ+, and worship at the altar of transgenderism, even though their approval ratings are hovering at 31% and trending toward the 20s. This plunge is while Trump’s approval rating is at 57%, higher than any point in the first Trump Presidency. The cries of “Threat to Democracy” and “Constitutional Crisis” are leading every legacy media news broadcast. Where were these cries during the last four years when we had an actual Constitutional crisis with no coherent individual present behind the resolute desk or when Kamala Harris hijacked the nomination without a vote? These folks are in search of a leader and message. Still, they do not see themselves capitulating and joining with Republicans, and that includes ultra-positive protection of women in sports Executive Order. Near 80% of Americans approve, and 67% of Democrats, but Democrat Legislators do not count themselves in the majority rating.

[presidentalpaca]

the trend of people, all along the range of establishment dems to leftists, to call for trump to be replaced are so bizarre to me. like, yeah, i get the sentiment. we hate trump. he's a fascist and a liar and dangerous to democracy and yes, yes, yes agreed. but he is a WEAK candidate for the republican party.

up until this point we've had essentially a race to the bottom. biden should've sweeped trump, as an incumbent who did have some decent policies in motion, but he's a corpse who stans isnotreal and has an increasingly reactionary approach to immigration (this is something we NEED to push kamala on, btw). he also has historically low approval ratings, which has never rlly spelled out good news for incumbents.

well, okay, biden sucks, so trump should we sweeping him. well... sort of. trump, unlike biden, has a strong base of support. he has people who will only vote for him, while biden supporters are essentially just dem party supporters. the thing is though - much of his supporter base historically does not vote consistently. many of them don't believe in organized goverment at all, so they may not vote based on that.

but aside from that element, the bigger focus is the moderates. the people like my personal grandparents. white, wealthy, from the suburbs, lutheran, stans ronald reagan (named their boxer reagan). and trump freaks them out! they want normalcy. they want order. they're plenty racist, but they don't want an insurrection.

moderate voters are the ones you absolutely need to bag, regardless of party, and at the moment the dems (depending on how they move forward) could have a major advantage now that biden's out. they have a cop vs a criminal; a goofy laughbox vs a violent menace; a woman who connects with her stepchildren and seems happy with her husband vs the guy who called his own daughter hot and had the rnc commentators gossiping about his marriage. this is not a reflection of what matters to me personally, but rather of what generally matters to american voters. this dynamic is flimsy, because it takes work to push a narrative, and the dems have roughly a month til their convention, three til election day. they can push kamala and promote enticing policies, as long as they actually push kamala and promote enticing policies.

in addition, trump weirdly had a terrible pick for vp. jd vance is supposed to help trump's ticket appear less establishment, more in connection with the rust belt, but vance has been sucking up to the dems and pushing down his appalachian community for years.

and trump has maxed out on name recognition. it's pretty difficult for someone to not have a decently solid opinion on someone who has already been president for four years. red voters who know they don't like him - primarily moderates - can't really be all that psyched to vote him back into office.

now why, WHY, would we encourage the republican party to swap the trump-vance ticket for someone more competent, not so unruly and impolite? someone who can feign common decency, who can more effectively pretend to be better than they are?

please don't get sucked up in the "no you!" push, because (imo) that's all it is. it's just seeing the dems fuck up, be called out, then seeing the reps do the same thing, and wanting to call it out to get even. i don't think that's the move right now.

i think the move is to take the coconut pill for few months or so, pretend to get along, hope the dems do their part for once, and come jan 21st, we can go full throttle pushing kamala to fix everything.

oh, and vote august 6th!! multiple progressive state reps are up for re-election (shout out cori bush), as well as local reps and ballot measures. november 5th matters, but the next big one is only 2 weeks from today!

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

what the world looks like on Dec 27

For some reason the "Biden Is Doing A Great Job" crowd is trotting out in force today, lord knows why; Politico, MSNBC and Washington Post are all carrying editorials from Democratic "strategists" explaining why Democrats are going to win in '24.

It's probably a good way to enframe the issues of the day.

Start with MSNBC's, I guess. Simon Rosenberg argues from fairly persuasive general observations that the trend towards increasing liberal populism creates a new kind of 'silent majority' (these are my words, not his) in the past two decades. The tell is election outcomes at the Federal level; Democrats have won a historically unprecedented number of them, regardless of how much noise we make about Republican resurgence in these times.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-2024-election-polls-strong-rcna130507?cid=eml_mda_20231227&user_email=587504d38113b0b55701d435b17a018c44c6e464cd919efb5465ffcb40e1a742

Marc Thiessen in the Washington Post, somewhat inexplicably (what, was there a White House press office email blast I missed?) goes much more granular in his Biden-boosting. His top achievements list is entirely foreign policy and includes two items about China (the Replicator initiative and standing up on human rights); and the top two achievements on his list are Israel and Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/27/biden-best-policy-actions-2023/

It should be noted, this is somewhat Thiessen & Rosenberg in the act of (pardon me) blowing sunshine up people's asses. The last major poll of American foreign policy approval from NBC News polling in late November shows consistently low approval ratings for Biden's handling of Israel, in particular with younger voters (i.e., Gen Z). You might recall some of the edges of the discussion this kicked off; this is why Gen Z and Chinese censorship on Tik-Tok turned into a slightly big deal.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-bidens-standing-hits-new-lows-israel-hamas-war-rcna125251

I can't imagine it's gotten much better since the hostage-exchange ceasefire ended. And, yes, if you didn't know, ByteDance censors and pushes China-friendly content on Tik-Tok.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tiktoks-content-political-subjects-aligns-chinese-government-study-say-rcna130448

Meanwhile, Biden quietly signed the National Defense Authorization Act into law on Friday.

It's not getting a lot of attention, but the way that the bill was crafted demonstrates that it's pretty clearly still Senate Democrats & Biden in charge of the agenda; this is why Tuberville's abortion-travel-reimbursement ban was dropped. Republicans got largely nonsensical inclusions - no DEI and no pride flags in the military I guess? (which doesn't seem to stop troops from displaying it themselves), which sort of seems to signal the way of things lately.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/22/biden-defense-bill-spying-program-00133124

As unpopular as Democratic foreign policy seems to be, the fact remains, it's the most realistic option on the table since Republicans have regressed to Trumpist isolationism and nativist "border invasion!!!" hysteria. It looks like Democrats actually have substantive legislative accomplishments to claim; Republicans have posturing and lifestyle policing they've tried to inject into Democratic accomplishments.

Really, if you go in-depth on what Republicans have actually done, not just postured about, there's some real work going on there. There are people lining up for POTUS in 2028 who are doing this; but it's largely on bipartisan causes, not party-line Republican causes, because, again, party-line Republican ones are essentially "Trump Iz Great", "Gayz R Bad" and "Legislate That Uterus!" (and, also, "Immigrants Terk Mah Jerb Derp De Der"). The number of Republicans who actually want to do things, and not virtue-signal, is probably around 11%; you could see the people who are uniting behind Haley as a kind of proxy or indicator for people looking for an alternative to Trump right now.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/1226/who-is-winning-2028-presidential-election-00133119

Zooming in on foreign policy and defense news for today, a few slightly eyebrow-raising headlines are out there if you look.

Start with NYT's slightly surprising exposé of the MSS, China's spy agency (which, did you even know that was what China's spy agency was called? yeah, good job China).

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/us/politics/china-cia-spy-mss.html

On the Ukraine front, Politico cites an anonymous Biden administration official stating that Biden's policy on Ukraine is shifting; they're pushing Ukraine for a negotiated outcome instead of a total expulsion of Russian forces and a return to historical borders (the '90s, or 2014). I'm expecting pushback on that from the Ukraine think tank and European partner-nation scene; the obvious objection here is that it's just rewarding Russia for aggressing on Ukraine, and the situation in Russia is fluid; the way I see it, given what we saw from the Wagner insurrection and the state of Russian troop mobilization (not great, it never is), there's room for Russia to lose as much as there is for Ukraine to win.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211

Meanwhile, Ukraine's stolen children are getting another round of light shined on them; The New York Times is running a feature on them. And it's hard not to seem ungrateful, but... I can't help but wish that more people had been raising awareness of this, this entire time, because, again, it's children stolen from a war zone in full view of the world and Russia doesn't even lie about it, they just front like it's legitimate.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/26/world/europe/ukraine-war-children-russia.html

In domestic-political news, the latest sign of the massive upheaval of American life caused by the end of Roe v. Wade and the post-Dobbs era of reproductive rights is a Black woman in Ohio charged after miscarrying in her bathroom. Ohio just passed abortion rights protections last month; activists from all over the country mobilized around their referendum actually. This makes the Ohio case particularly noteworthy; at stake is whether criminalizing miscarriage can still work in an environment like Ohio or post-Dobbs America generally.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/black-woman-ohio-was-charged-miscarrying-bathroom-experts-warn-dangero-rcna130649

Other notable stories that don't fit:

Gun reform is doable now, according to Washington Post interviews with Sens. Michael F. Bennet (D-Colo.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), Angus King (I-Maine) and Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), all of whom previously voted against gun control after Sandy Hook.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2023/assault-weapons-ban-debate-gun-control-ar-15-mass-shootings/

Washington Post has a documentary on the Discord Leaks, which is... fun, that's fun (unless you're in intelligence, in which case, it's very not-fun). Call it a "your tax dollars at work" story; also, fun fact, Egypt wanted to arm Russia in early '22, so... what the hell, Egypt.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/12/11/discord-leaks-documentary/

Jack Smith's team is arguing Trump shouldn't be able to use his trial as a platform for spreading disinformation, which is a very, very interesting argument to someone who mines court documents for proven disinformation (like me!).

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/27/politics/trump-courtroom-special-counsel-election-subversion?cid=ios_app

Stephen Miller is awful, which you knew, and running a fairly obvious influence op using America First Legal and some surprisingly bad lawfare; the tell here is, AFL spends more on ads than the entire ACLU despite being a fraction of its size. It spends about 10% of its entire budget on actual lawsuits. Thanks TNR for putting this back up in front of people's eyes, I guess.

[Joohn Choe]

[apercent]

• Trump didn't gain any new voters. In 2024 70 million people voted for him, compared to 70 million. His approval ratings have not gotten higher. Trump did not win because of the rise of fascism, no, Kamala Harris didn't inspire people to go vote!

• Trump did not gain any voters from black men. I will be relying on exit polls from NBCnews, according to which the shift in black men was a single percentage, from 78% to 77%. All of you including "White woman and black men" in your long list of people to blame are being uncritically racist... And wrong....

• Trump did not *just* gain with latino men either, but also latino woman. It is also important to really consider what "latino" means- white people can be Latino and a thin majority of latino people in the United States are white. Not that it would even be a good excuse to blame them when Trump won mostly off the support of entirely white WASPs, women and men alike!

• Finally I must repeat, Harris's defeat cannot be explained by "race traitors" or blamed on some minority group! There aren't enough leftists to account for the 10 or so million votes Harris lost from Biden. It cannot even be blamed on Donald Trump whom underperformed if anything! It lays squarely on the Democratic party for a poor campaign! The only good explanation for her defeat is that .. she... sold!

For those of you still defending her can you please examine why you feel the need to defend the Democrats at this critical juncture? They are not your friends. They're supposed to be working for *us*. When they fail, criticize. Now is a great time to remind them that they should've stopped sending weapons to Israel months ago. There is nothing productive about turning on minorities and each other to defend a poor candidate

[bopinion]

2023 / 21

Aperçu of the Week:

"WOW, they are going to ARREST ME".

(Donald Trump, New York City Court, Case No. 71543-23)

Bad News of the Week:

As expected, U.S. Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election. At least since his strong re-election last year, the relatively young politician (44 years old) is considered a promising contender and was already in second place in the polls after Donald Trump and ahead of Joe Biden before his official announcement.

Unfortunately, his platform is anything but young: the "Trump with a brain" is pursuing a distinctly right-wing agenda, has loosened gun rights, threatened minorities and cut social programs. But above all, he has dedicated himself to fighting "wokeness" as a preserver of the good old primal American canon of values. He, for example, prohibits the discussion of gender diversity in schools.

Unfortunately, and for Europeans hardly comprehensible, he is not taking an outsider's position, but riding on a general trend. For example, when Budweiser launched a campaign for Bud light featuring transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney, conservatives successfully called for a boycott of the brand. Example: In a widely circulated video, Kid Rock shot at crates of the brand's beer with a machine gun and was celebrated for it. And just last week, Target took off the shelves a rainbow-colored product line it had introduced for Pride month in June - because employees were threatened by angry customers.

Increasingly, a culture war is emerging. And whether it's with Donald "Grab them by the pussy" Trump or his echo Ron "Don't say gay" DeSantis, Republicans will position themselves as the keepers of the true U.S. spirit. Anything that has even a hint of social, equality, inclusion, diversity or liberalism will be branded as an attack on the national self-image. And this message will resonate with many: the Republican voter base will go to the ballot box rallied to save their America.

This will not be the case with the Democrats, however. For their establishment has failed to build a successor to Joe Biden. Out of misplaced respect for the incumbent, who is traditionally granted automatic re-appointment. Even as his approval ratings continue to crumble. Not because of his policies, but because of his age. And because of a lack of imagination.

All of the alternatives currently mentioned by the media - from Kamala Harris to Amy Klobuchar to Pete Buttigieg - have unfortunately already proven that they cannot mobilize significantly. And all of them are hiding. Only when Biden becomes seriously ill or shows obvious signs of age-related failure will they be seen. With no agenda of their own, no charisma, no shadow cabinet. Just not being a Trump or DeSantis won't be enough this time. Especially not if you yourself are not an Alpha Male. Because US society is apparently not yet ready for a woman or a homosexual. And the legacy of Barack Obama is not strong enough.

Good News of the Week:

"Why Generation Z wants to work differently - and is now infecting everyone". That's the headline in leading political magazine Der Spiegel this week. Or in other words: work-life balance is currently a big topic. There is a shortage of skilled workers on the labor market. And that doesn't just mean the usual suspects like geriatric nurses and teachers or IT specialists. But everyone. The topics are overflowing: Should the retirement age be pushed back? How can Germany become attractive for international work nomads? How about a four-day week for everyone? Or a so-called "unconditional basic income"?

The primary issue here is not whether or in which industry one would like to work, but above all how. During the Corona pandemic, many employers and employees got to know - and in many cases appreciate - home office for the first time. I could pass for a trendsetter in this regard. For 20 years, I've worked primarily from home. And in parallel, I also have the advantages of "trust-based working hours". No one is interested in exactly when I do what work. The main thing is that I do my job. It's a give and take. And depends on personality. While some struggled with getting out of bed or putting the equally pending housework on the back burner, I have to be more careful that work doesn't become too dominant. Responsibility is the magic word - for work as part of one's personal life.

Balance is the key word in work-life balance. It's not about working less, if possible with full pay compensation. It's about remaining the master of your own personal schedule. Having to take time off for a doctor's appointment? Missing the kindergarten event? Sitting in the office in perfect weather even though the previous weekend day was rainy? Just doesn't make sense. The relationship between employer and employee should be symbiotic. After all, both have the same interest: that the work gets done. Then both sides are doing well. Without the control mania of a time clock, but with mutual trust. I can recommend this with a clear conscience.

Personal happy moment of the week:

Three days of weekend and no work. Good weather and children out of town. Sleeping in and no obligations. Going on trips and eating well. Work-life-balance... ;-)

I couldn't care less...

...for the bashing of the climate alarmists from the "Last Generation". Last week they were raided by the police - the official reason: suspicion of a criminal organization. Excuse me? Civil disobedience is for me a high good to kick the system (pardon) in the ass. Such disproportionate action by the state, instead of addressing the real problem, backfires, at least for me. Robin Hood has always been more likeable than the Sheriff of Nottingham.

As I write this...

...the runoff election for the post of president is underway in Turkey. Recep Erdogan has held power for 20 years. And for this year's challenger from an opposition party alliance, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, things were actually looking good. Not anymore: either he loses and autocrat Erdogan remains in power. Or he wins and has to keep countless election promises to the right-wing electorate, whose candidate fell out in the regular election. And with this course - played out, for example, on the backs of Syrian refugees and the Kurdish minority - he moves just as far away from a liberal, democratic ideal as Erdogan. Therefore, many voters will prefer the original. And nothing will change, the historic opportunity will be lost.

Update: now it's whitmonday. And Erdogan is reelected. And celebrated. Ooph...

Post Scriptum

FC Bayern has become the German soccer champion. The eleventh time in a row - so nothing new. However, like many others, the decision was actually made only the day before yesterday on the last match day, literally at the last minute. What is considered a catastrophe in Munich, I actually think is good: after all, (open) competition is part of sports. See the German ice hockey team, which yesterday won a medal at the World Championship again after 70 years. And which (in contrast to FC Bayern) nobody had on their mind. I couldn't lose anyway, because the opponent and winner was Canada - my second home.

[tanoraqui]

Pod Save America had a good snippet of discussion about this recently (starting at about 18:50), about how in any other circumstances, if the VP of a President with as low an approval rating as Biden has was running against...honestly anyone from the opposing party, but especially someone with name recognition and "proven" experience like Trump, that VP would NOT be tied with her opponent. We're talking VERY basic, consistent Political Science trends.

Kamala Harris is fighting a viciously uphill battle and she's doing great, because she's a skilled politician leading an increasingly united party, in ever-increasing alliance with every sane person from the Republicans who, yeah, still disagree with Democrats on most issues, but who recognize that the only thing Trump has proven himself to be is dangerous, and getting worse with every day.

Go have her back. Avert the threat to the very civil structure and freedom of the country (and, lbr: with it, the world). Make a plan to vote, and carry it out - and don't forget to vote for Democrats and good policies down the ticket as well! Then, once you're done (not) dying beside an elf (albeit maybe never a friend) - take a breather. Take a break. Enjoy your triumph and relief.

Then start nagging everyone from your local council to thw new Madam President to uphold their campaign promises, and more if they want to get re-elected next time.

Parsimony, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump

As Democrats undergo their quadrennial "why aren't we winning big against this guy?" freakout, a quick thought:

Social science has an informal dictum called "parsimony." Parsimony means that the best explanation is the simplest one that explains the most variance. It might not be a total explanation, but it's the best explanation.

We are in a particularly unparsimonious moment. Pretty much everyone believes that if only Kamala Harris would follow their preferred strategy -- more interviews! fewer interviews! more radical politics! more mainstream politics! -- then she'd be winning big.

If only.

In contrast, let me suggest five core elements of this campaign that have not and cannot change. Accordingly, the dynamics of the race are fairly fixed and fairly close. In five words, these are: woman, color, context, cult, and media.

Woman: Kamala Harris is one. And like it or not, misogyny is a strong thing (as we were reminded in 2016). Lots of people don't think women are or can be leaders/presidents/competent. That isn't likely to change during a presidential race. It's not "fair." It's just true.

Color: Kamala Harris has one that isn't white. Racism is a strong thing (as we are reminded constantly). Lots of people don't think people of color are or can be leaders/presidents/competent. That isn't likely to change during a presidential race. It's not "fair." It's just true.

Context: Fairly or not, the last few years have been "blamed" on Joe Biden. Lots of people have decided that the events of COVID and protests of 2020 (when Donald Trump was president) are Biden's fault since he was *elected* in 2020. Inflation, immigration, and Israel have overwhelmed the stunning number of real accomplishments of the Biden administration. That isn't likely to change during a presidential race. It's not "fair." It's just true.

Cult: Donald Trump leads one. His supporters *believe.* Facts are reinterpreted to fit the narrative. Obvious failures are explained away or outright ignored. Empirical experiences are denied by those who experienced them. None of this is likely to change during a presidential race. It's not "fair." It's just true.

Media: It fundamentally *loves* Donald Trump. Not, notably, because its members support his politics. Rather, most US media is for profit and Donald Trump drives clicks, eyeballs, retweets, whatever. He is an anchor of the attention economy. So long as we pay attention he will dominate attention. None of this is likely to change during a presidential race. It's not "fair." It's just true.

Five core factors don't change with temporary tactics.

What might work? Turnout. Massive turnout favors Democrats. It's about who shows up and votes and election day, not about specific campaign tactics. It always has been.

[bllsbailey]

Oh, You Knew CNN Was Going There With This Attack on Trump

I don’t even need to explain to you why this is wrong. There’s no way there’s been this much of a shift. The media got the memo: start attacking Trump again because everything he’s doing is being well-received by the voters. So, CNN highlighted the four lefty polls showing Trump’s declining approval to manufacture a fake narrative that the nation is turning against him. The overall aggregate still has him with a higher approval rating. Now, they’re saying the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) work is hurting Trump:

Nope.

It's almost hilarious—who’s being polled here? Of course, Democrats don’t like DOGE—all federal workers are Democrats. Sorry, Harry, this is why no one believes CNN, and while you were on a nice streak—you caved to network pressure. Also, you did a segment on how Trump transformed the electorate this week. Which is it, man?

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) February 10, 2025

ABC News revealed that Trump was at the height of his power.

Frank Luntz’s

focus group of Democrats said they love what Trump is doing regarding spending cuts and shrinking the bureaucracy. They did say they wished Trump were friendlier, but that’s an aside. The focus group from Arizona was also delighted with DOGE’s work. Some participants were also happy that Trump was protecting women's sports, too.

The media just got caught peddling a total lie. We know your game. The party’s over. Myth busted.

Weird. Carville said a collapse was happening. https://t.co/HHMeMw9RIa— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) February 22, 2025

Trending on Townhall Videos

[fiydaax]

Impact of Trump’s US Tariffs on The Indian Gold Market

Gold prices have surged to unprecedented levels, fueled by growing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding global economic growth. Concerns over potential trade disruptions, particularly due to U.S. tariff policies, have reinforced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, drawing investors’ attention to the significant ₹2,60,000 per troy ounce mark, especially those looking to buy digital gold and invest in digital gold online.

On Friday, spot gold reached a new peak of ₹2,65,000 per troy ounce, continuing its strong momentum into 2025 after recording its best annual performance in over a decade. Analysts attribute this rally to fears of slower economic growth and inflationary pressures driven by trade policies, making it an opportune time to explore the best platform to buy digital gold.

“Gold could test the ₹2,65,000 per troy ounce level in the first quarter, and once that barrier is breached, we could see further milestones ahead. A rise beyond ₹2,90,000 per troy ounce within the year is a distinct possibility” for those looking to invest in digital gold and digital gold purchase online.

IMPACT OF U.S. POLICIES ON THE GOLD MARKET : As uncertainty looms over the U.S. trade outlook, American gold futures have been trading at a premium for months. A significant influx of 12.9 million troy ounces into U.S. COMEX-approved warehouses since November has increased stockpiles by 73.5%, reaching their highest levels since mid-2022. These deliveries originate from major trading hubs, including London and Switzerland, as market players seek stability amid shifting economic policies.

The London Bullion Market Association: has confirmed its ongoing collaboration with COMEX and U.S. regulators to monitor market developments. Despite these shifts, liquidity in the London gold market remains strong, with average daily trade volumes exceeding 47 million troy ounces since January.

INDIA’S GOLD MARKET AND PRICE RISE India: one of the largest consumers of gold, has witnessed a sharp price increase in response to global trends. With the Indian Rupee fluctuating and inflation concerns rising, domestic gold prices have reached new highs, tracking international movements. Additionally, heightened central bank purchases and changing investor sentiment have contributed to this rally.

Higher import costs due to U.S. trade policies could put further pressure on India’s gold prices, making the metal more expensive for retail buyers. However, demand remains robust, particularly during festival seasons and wedding periods, ensuring continued interest in the market.

GOLD AND U.S. MONETARY POLICY: Gold’s rally has also been supported by expectations surrounding U.S. Federal Reserve policies. Following a series of rate cuts in 2024, the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady in its January meeting. Lower interest rates typically enhance gold’s appeal, as the metal does not yield interest but benefits from a weaker dollar.

China’s central bank has played a crucial role in sustaining gold demand, consistently adding to its reserves despite rising prices. Analysts believe continued Chinese buying could further support gold’s upward trajectory in the coming months.

With inflationary concerns, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and shifting trade policies, gold remains a critical asset for investors looking to safeguard their portfolios through digital gold investment and virtual gold investment strategies.

[lianxi-fanyi]

[Washington Post]: Trump Aides Suggest Imposing High Tariffs on Allied Nations, Sign “Mar-a-lago Accord” lowering the value of the US Dollar

(CNA) The world is paying attention to incoming US President Donald J. Trump’s tariffs, the Washington Post quoted future Head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran in a previous report. Mr. Miran is in favor of levying high tariffs against US allies, and also suggests signing a "Mar-a-lago Accord", similar to the Plaza Accord, to lower the value of the US dollar. 

The whole world waits with bated breath to see the possible trends in Mr. Trump’s proposed tariffs. Will the tax rates against China, Canada, and Mexico be as high as previously proposed? Will American manufacturers shift to setting up factories domestically due to high tariffs? Will tensions rise if affected countries respond tit-for-tat? Will the global economy experience a recession as a result of a trade war? These are yet to be seen. 

The Washington Post reports Trump aides are already considering reducing the tariffs list and focusing on specific industries. This move would go against campaign promise, and a Trump statement has claimed it is fake news. Whether Trump will fulfill his campaign promises remains the focus of the news. 

On January 12, the Wall Street Journal quoted the appointee for Head of the Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran, a senior researcher at Hudson Bay Capital on his article published November 2024 “The Guidebook for Restructuring the Global Economy.” His analysis is something worth paying attention to. 

Miran holds an average import tax in the US from 20 percent, even as high as 50 percent, can still be profitable. Currently, the average import tax is 2%. Tariffs are one tool with which to handle long-term tensions when foreign intervention weakens the US dollar. The US supports the economies and military affairs of other countries, which has overvalued the US dollar, increasing the trade deficit, and gutting US-based industries.

He writes that placing tariffs and adjusting the US dollar will, in 10 years, supersede any policies or other influencing factors in changing international trade and the banking system. 

41-year-old Miran is a researcher at the conservative think-tank the Manhattan Institute, and holds a PhD in Economics from Harvard. The Washington Post pointed out, his think-tank research from before his appointment is really not a policy proposal, nor is it reflective of Trump’s personal views, but it can be used to understand how future policies may be implemented. 

Miran approves of the economic theory of the “Optimal Tariff.” "Monopoly buyers" have bargaining power. If you enact a tariff, exporters will absorb the costs themselves and the market price will not be affected. Even if consumers must pay a bit more, tariffs will offset manufacturing costs. 

The idea that tariffs of 20 to 50 percent can still be profitable comes from research by MIT Economics Professor Arnaud Costinot and UC Berkeley Professor Andres Rodriguez-Clare. Costinot has already pointed out, based on the tariffs laid against China during Trump’s first term, many US importers absorbed the tariff costs. 

Faced with the possibility of opposing countries raising retaliatory tariffs, and Miran says the Trump administration may announce a reduction in joint-defense obligations to these countries. In other words, if Japan, Korea, and NATO members enact retaliatory tariffs, the US may renege on its defense obligations. But, the report points out, it is important to note the countries with which the US has a trade deficit like China, Mexico, and Vietnam do not fall under the US protective umbrella. 

The international community is worried that since Trump did not promise to cease economic and military coercion against two US allies, Canada and Denmark, Russia and China may also employ a similar attitude towards their neighbors. The targets of the new Trump administration’s tariffs will also be a focal point. 

The report also suggested the US can imitate the 1985 Plaza Accord signed with Japan, England, France, and West Germany by signing a “Mar-a-Lago Accord” with allied nations to lower the value of the US dollar to promote industry and exporting. Following the signing of the Plaza Accord at the end of the last century, the Japanese yen appreciated and a real-estate bubble ensued, resulting in long-term economic stagnation for Japan. 

He believes after a few tariff increases, US trading partners such as Europe and China will acquiesce to signing monetary agreements in exchange for lowering punitive tariffs. As for the US national debt, it may be passed onto consumers as a “usage fee.”

[obsidianmichi]

I'm going to point out that the Right and the MSM are hammering on Biden being old is their only talking point. Why?

BECAUSE AFTER FOUR YEARS THAT'S ALL THEY HAVE.

The party that brought you the Alzheimer President and still worships him today is upset about one very healthy old man being old and cognizant. Nothing else they've tried sticks, even Israel and Palestine hasn't managed to stick. The Right is desperate for Biden to drop out. They want the Left to commit political suicide. They want a redux on 2016. They want you to be depressed. They want you to stay home instead of using your vote to enact change.

Biden is the most progressive president we have had since FDR, and the rising tide of congressional democrats are also pulling left. Federal institutions like the NLRB have transformed from toothless into powerful advocates for worker's rights. Democrats have dominated the last two elections. SCOTUS rulings and Roe have resulted in a massive unprecedented leftward voting swing largely in spite of expected trends and polling to the contrary. Did you know that the 2022 midterms had historic democrat turnout? Did you know a Republican candidate almost lost a Kentucky special election this year in a district that went 20+ for Trump? COVID did a number on the boomer voting bloc, and millennials aren't growing more conservative as they get older. The rules have changed.

Don't buy into the bullshit. Trump has been bankrupting the Republican Party to pay his legal bills. Many Republican state parties are bankrupt from their own corruption and they can't turn to the national party for funding. Republican small dollar donors are exhausted from years of being over tapped. All the republicans have are their oligarchs. Their leadership is inexperienced and has been kicking out their experienced players for Trump loyalists. They have no ground game to get out the vote and no means to fund it outside the smaller PACs. Despite every presentation of strength and bluster, they are weak. Their candidates are weak. Trump can't string a coherent sentence together, much less do it without outrageous lies. Trump is a convicted felon. He's a court adjudicated rapist. He failed on every count during his presidency. He enacted the Muslim ban. He pulled the US from the Paris Climate Accords and the Iran nuclear deal. Trump claimed the success of the Obama economy, which he wrecked through mismanagement. He's the reason your taxes are higher. His inaction on COVID killed millions of Americans. He tried to steal the 2020 election and attempted a coup. Listen to him talk, he sounds like he's lost his mind. His campaign is struggling to book venues, and the only people showing up for him are largely the ones who follow him from state to state. His approval ratings are in the toilet. The debates were much worse for him with independents than they were for Biden. Most of the MSM are leveraging everything they can to convince you the opposite is true.

This is not about Biden being old. This is about Biden's government being a threat to our ruling corporate class. This is about Trump being weak, and about making sure democrats and independents stay home.

If you've ever dreamed of a mass democratic tide to make significant change and push back against the conservatives in their strongholds now is the time.

That said, the MAGA NC candidate for governor is openly running on stripping voting rights from women and killing liberals. The head of the Heritage Foundation is making terrorist threats. SCOTUS is ruling the president (but only a Republican president) is a king. If they win, you can expect to see every major gain in the last forty to sixty years rolled back to the time when rivers were on fire from pollution, homosexual relationships were outlawed, company towns existed, divorce was nearly impossible, and school segregation was the de facto norm. Republicans also know now is the time.

You need to choose right now whether purity or reality is more important to you. The reality will come for you whether you're pure or not. Both candidates are not the same. Whoever becomes president will fundamentally alter your lives over the next four years and the lives of those you love. It will decide whether Palestine has any chance at a two state solution. It will directly affect the fate of both Ukraine and Taiwan. The election 2024 may even be the last real election in the US.

There are more of us than there are of them, but we'll only win if you choose to show up.

if i see one more article, post, or news anchor talking about how joe biden is old, i'm putting my fist through a window. i feel like i've gone through the fucking looking glass.

this is project 2025, trump's plan for what he'll do if elected. whatever you think is in there, it's worse. watch a breakdown of the highlights here. this man wants to unravel the fabric of our democracy for good - this all aside from his vitriolic hatred of poc, his determination to start ww3, and the fact that he can't string a sentence together without telling outrageous and easily verifiable lies. his administration will start their crusade to exterminate trans people on day one, and they won't stop there.

do not talk to me about how joe biden is old, as if that could ever matter to me more than my life or the lives of my friends and family. my little sister is 14, she's trans, and i don't know what to tell her when we talk about politics, because one of these people wants her dead and the other one is old and some of you are still acting like those problems are equals.

i can't fucking stand this. i'm not hearing it this time, we are not repeating 2016. refusing to vote is not an act of protest, it is an act of complacency, and our most vulnerable will suffer for your negligence. vote like your life depends on it, because for some of us, it really fucking does.

[influencermagazineuk]

As Donald Trump remains a prominent figure in U.S. politics, discussions about how his potential influence could shape the economy—and by extension, the stock market—continue to dominate financial circles. Love him or hate him, Trump’s policies have historically had significant implications for various sectors, driving growth in some industries while challenging others. If the "Trump Era" makes a comeback, here’s a look at stocks and sectors that could potentially benefit. Energy: Revving Up the Oil and Gas Giants Trump’s presidency was marked by a staunch support for the fossil fuel industry. From rolling back regulations on drilling to greenlighting major pipeline projects, Trump championed energy independence through domestic production. If these policies resurface, expect energy giants like ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and smaller fracking companies to thrive. Natural gas companies may also see significant tailwinds as Trump’s policies often favor exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Stocks like Cheniere Energy (LNG) could benefit from an expanded global energy footprint. However, investors should remain cautious of potential environmental pushback and the growing momentum behind clean energy initiatives. Defense: A Boost to Military Spending Under Trump’s administration, defense spending reached historic highs. If he were to return to the helm or continue to influence policy, this trend would likely persist, benefiting defense contractors. Companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) could see substantial growth in their stock prices. The emphasis on modernizing the military, coupled with geopolitical tensions, would bolster demand for advanced weapon systems, cybersecurity solutions, and aerospace technologies. Investors should keep an eye on government contracts and rising defense budgets as key indicators. Infrastructure: Building the Future “Build America” was a recurring theme during Trump’s presidency, emphasizing large-scale infrastructure projects. If a similar agenda is pursued, construction companies, equipment manufacturers, and raw material suppliers could gain momentum. Stocks like Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere & Company (DE) may benefit from increased demand for heavy machinery. At the same time, cement producers like Vulcan Materials (VMC) and steel manufacturers such as Nucor (NUE) could experience growth spurred by infrastructure spending. Financials: A Lighter Regulatory Touch The financial sector enjoyed a period of deregulation during Trump’s tenure, leading to a more favorable environment for banks, insurance companies, and investment firms. A continuation of these policies could bode well for major players like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Bank of America (BAC). With less oversight, financial institutions may see increased profitability through expanded lending, mergers, and acquisitions. However, volatility in interest rates and geopolitical factors could pose challenges, making diversification key for investors in this space. Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare: A Mixed Bag Trump’s approach to healthcare oscillated between reducing regulatory burdens on drug approvals and challenging drug pricing practices. If a renewed Trump agenda leans toward expediting approvals, biotech and pharmaceutical companies could gain an edge. Companies like Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), and Regeneron (REGN) might thrive in an environment favoring innovation. However, if drug pricing reform comes back into focus, large-cap pharmaceutical stocks could face headwinds. The broader healthcare sector, particularly private insurers like UnitedHealth Group (UNH), may see benefits if a Trump-era push to roll back certain Affordable Care Act provisions gains traction. Technology: A Focus on American Innovation Trump’s stance on technology often revolved around bolstering American companies in the face of international competition, particularly from China. This policy could benefit semiconductor manufacturers like NVIDIA (NVDA), Intel (INTC), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Additionally, companies specializing in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 5G infrastructure could find themselves at the forefront of government-backed initiatives. However, Big Tech firms like Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (META) could face challenges from antitrust scrutiny or new regulatory measures targeting social media platforms. Manufacturing and Trade: A Shift in Global Dynamics Trump’s “America First” policies prioritized domestic manufacturing and reduced reliance on foreign imports. This could benefit companies with a strong U.S. manufacturing presence, such as General Electric (GE), 3M (MMM), and Boeing (BA). Additionally, companies in the automotive sector, including Ford (F) and General Motors (GM), may see increased incentives to expand domestic production. However, the potential for trade wars and tariffs could create uncertainty for multinational companies heavily reliant on global supply chains. Retail and Consumer Goods: Tax Cuts and Spending Booms A Trump-era economy may also benefit retail and consumer goods stocks, particularly those that cater to middle-class spending habits. Tax cuts and economic policies favoring disposable income could boost companies like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Amazon (AMZN). Luxury brands might also experience growth, as a strong economy often translates to increased spending across various income brackets. Stocks like LVMH (LVMUY) and Tesla (TSLA) could see gains in this scenario. Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain: An Uncertain Frontier While Trump has expressed skepticism about cryptocurrencies, his deregulation-focused approach to financial markets could inadvertently benefit blockchain companies. Firms involved in blockchain technologies, such as Coinbase (COIN) and Riot Platforms (RIOT), might find opportunities in a less regulated landscape. However, the overall direction for this sector under Trump remains speculative, and investors should proceed with caution. Key Takeaways for Investors Investing in a Trump-influenced era requires careful analysis of policy trends and economic strategies. While certain sectors stand to benefit from his approach to deregulation, tax reforms, and spending priorities, others may face challenges from shifting trade dynamics and regulatory scrutiny. A diversified portfolio that balances growth opportunities with risk management is essential. Investors should stay attuned to political developments and macroeconomic indicators to navigate the complexities of a potential Trump comeback. Whether you’re bullish or bearish on a Trump-era market, understanding the interplay between policy and market dynamics can help you make informed investment decisions. Read the full article