#Lionel Jospin

[desenvoutee]

Les confidences de Lionel Jospin, ancien Premier Ministre (socialiste), le 29 septembre 2007 dans l'émission "Répliques" de France Culture.

"Nous n'avons jamais été face à une menace fasciste. Tout antifascisme n'était que du théâtre".

[vincentreproches]

Attention à la marche

[joselito28-1]

On October 13, 1999, the PACS was definitively adopted. After more than a year of sometimes violent debates.

Adopté par le Parlement français, sous la présidence Chirac, en cohabitation avec Lionel Jospin.

[mariacallous]

After a period of relative quiescence, everyone has started talking about fascism again. This is, in part, due to the threat of a second term for Donald Trump, which has reactivated a highly polemical “fascism debate” in the United States. But there are plenty of other actual or quasi-fascists elsewhere. The Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, is the leader of a genuine neo-fascist party. In Latin America, Argentina’s Javier Milei has picked up where Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro left off. And, in India, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party was reelected in June, albeit with a much-reduced majority.

By contrast, much less has been said about anti-fascism. Most commentators and journalists—and even many academics—seem to have accepted that anti-fascism belongs to the 20th century. Which is a little strange. If fascism is real, why not its opposite? And what happened to all of those historical memories of fighting fascism, above all in Europe, but also further afield?

Fortunately, we still have France, the only country that continues to talk about anti-fascism in a consistent and meaningful way across the political spectrum—and one of the few places where this talk translates into a hard electoral reality.

The explanation for this anomaly lies in the concept of the so-called front républicain (republican front). This refers to any coalition or alliance that is designed to keep the far-right from power.

In the late 1880s and 1890s, the front républicain included those who were opposed to the rise of Boulangism, a militarist far-right movement, and those who defended the cause of Alfred Dreyfus, whose false conviction was one of the great republican causes at the time. The clash between an insurgent far-right and the massed republican forces of the moderate right, the center, and the left was subsequently repeated time and again.

There were echoes of the front républicain in the 1936 Popular Front, although this was in a more obviously left-wing key. The same logic was invoked in the 1950s, at the time of Poujadism, and again in the 1980s, when Jean-Marie Le Pen’s Front National began to make its first electoral breakthroughs.

By this time, the front républicain had taken on a clearly electoral dimension. The aim was to ensure that the best-placed candidates from “republican” parties would win in the second-round of an election. This involved strategic désistements (withdrawals) by weaker “republican” candidates, followed by tactical voting.

The most famous recent iteration of the front républicain is usually also considered to be its last hurrah. In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen squeezed past the socialist candidate, Lionel Jospin, in the first round of the presidential election. This was the first time that any far-right candidate had come so close to power, and it was a profound shock.

In response, the entire political class called on the French to vote for the center-right candidate, Jacques Chirac, in the second round. It worked spectacularly: Chirac was elected with more than 82 percent of the vote on a turnout of almost 80 percent. Left-wing voters massively supported a right-wing candidate in order to save the French Republic.

But, as we now know, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s success was only the beginning. Since then, his daughter Marine Le Pen has climbed ever higher in the polls. She qualified for the second round of the presidential elections in 2017 and 2022, when she received 41 percent of the vote. Le Pen’s party, too, has gone from strength to strength. Now rebaptized as the Rassemblement National, it has gradually developed its local and regional presence—and, in 2022, it made a major breakthrough when it won 89 seats in the National Assembly.

For most analysts, the success of Marine Le Pen and the Rassemblement National was easily explained by the atrophy of the front républicain. After 2002, fewer and fewer left-wing voters felt inclined to block the far-right, and a significant minority of right-wing voters embraced it. With each new election, the remnants of a century-old French anti-fascist tradition seemed to fall away. Indeed, many of the most pessimistic result forecasts of the 2024 elections were based on the assumption that it was essentially dead.

Imagine the surprise, then, when the results of the second round were announced on Sunday night. Despite increasing its seats and vote share, the far-right flopped compared to the polls. It was soon clear that voters had done everything they could to stop the Rassemblement National from winning a majority.

All of a sudden, the front républicain was back, and the phrase was plastered across the French mainstream media. Commentators and pollsters scrambled to explain themselves. For those with long memories, it felt as if the spirit of 2002 had been resurrected from the grave.

The simplest way to explain this remarkable revival of anti-fascism is to invoke something that all historians of modern France will recognize: the fear of disorder and social collapse. Modern French history is littered with regime changes, protests, revolutions, and civil wars. The constitutional settlement of the Fifth Republic, born in 1958 during the Algerian War, was specifically designed to ensure stability, and it survived the momentous protests of 1968 and the economic crisis of deindustrialization unscathed.

Still today, voters are scared of the consequences of bringing a far-right party to national power. They fear that a victory for Marine Le Pen or her prime-minister-in-waiting, Jordan Bardella, would unleash violence and instability across the country. On the three occasions when they have realistically faced this prospect—2017, 2022 and 2024—they have pulled back. Each time, they have invoked the front républicain as a defense mechanism.

But there was more to the 2024 elections than simply a kneejerk reaction to the threat of disorder. For the first time since the early 2000s, anti-fascism was imbued with a positive quality. People invested hope in the left-wing alliance, known as the Nouveau Front Populaire. They saw anti-fascism as the basis on which to build a fairer society, with more public spending, a higher minimum wage, a wealth tax, and a reversal of Macron’s pension reforms.

This process was especially striking amongst young people, some of whom were not even born in 2002. Theirs is not the same anti-fascism as those aged 50 or older, who remember the rise of Jean-Marie Le Pen and the Front National. Young activists still talk about “fascism” and “racism,” just like the elders from whom they have learnt their history, but they are doing more than replaying the political battles of the past. They know that they are only one front in a global anti-fascist universe that stretches from the Trump trials to the smooth authoritarianism of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.

The campaigning of young anti-fascists has been made all the more intense by the fact that the Rassemblement National has succeeded in mobilizing a significant proportion of young people. The struggle to contain the far-right in France is not an intergenerational clash between youthful liberals and reactionary boomers. If anything, old people are the least likely to vote for Marine Le Pen and her acolytes. In fact, young people are fighting for the political soul of their own generation.

The most obvious symbol of this fight is Bardella himself. He is only 28 years old, and his meteoric rise has not passed unnoticed. Some voters in the 2024 elections even asked where the “Bardella” voting slip was when they arrived at the polling booth. They wanted to vote for him, even though he was not on the ballot.

Yet his youthful persona—and his facility with Tiktok—drew a committed response. During and after the elections, French social media was filled with a cascade of anti-fascist memes and counter-videos. Young people, often people of color, lampooned Bardella’s campaign tactics and press conferences. They pilloried his party and the—sometimes very inexperienced—candidates who ran for election, calling them out for their racism, homophobia, bigotry, or plain stupidity.

It helps that some of the emerging figures on the French left are also young. Clémence Guetté, of La France Insoumise, is 33. Marine Tondelier, the current leader of the main Greens party, is 37. And Raphaël Glucksmann, who led the center-left to second place in the 2024 European elections, is 44. They are all politicians who have cut their teeth in a political landscape where the far-right is a fixture, not an anomaly.

It is impossible to say whether this youthful French anti-fascism has a future. In his “letter to the French” after the elections, Macron referred to the front républicain, but it is not clear that he or his allies intend to adhere to it. In particular, the proposal to form a governing coalition without some or all of the left—which several members of Macron’s party have endorsed—would run counter to the spirit of the election results. Meanwhile, the RN is waiting patiently for its next opportunity to show off its electoral strength.

Nevertheless, the recent electoral cycle in France is a reminder that today’s anti-fascism is no longer beholden to the 1930s or 1990s. It has a life of its own—and a whole new generation of foot soldiers ready to go to war against their oldest enemy.

[francaistoutsimplement]

8 juillet :

Le 30 juin dernier, le RN caracolait à 34 % des voix dans une élection qui avait vu une forte mobilisation (par rapport aux scores précédents). Ce que l’on n’avait pas vu c’est que ça voulait dire que 66 % des Français étaient contre le RN et les couches populaires qui le soutiennent. On avait oublié leur passivité devant le massacre policier et judiciaire des gilets jaunes et les 58% de Macron en 2022. Alors, c’est vrai que par certains aspects le RN n’est pas très ragoûtant. Mais prétendre que c’est un parti fasciste des sœurs zombres des années 30, est simplement une blague. Du théâtre comme disait Lionel Jospin. Alors on se pose la question : pourquoi Mélenchon, les écolos, les faux cocos, les traîtres génétiques du PS ont encore une fois sauvé le cul de Macron ? En votant tranquillement sans aucun état d’âme pour Darmanin, Borne et la plupart des gangsters qui entouraient Macron. Sans oublier bien sûr l’élection de la limace Hollande.!

C’est qu’en fait, ils sont comme majorité des Français et s’accommodent très bien du néolibéralisme macronien et de son techno-fascisme corrompu. La dégringolade de leur pays ne leur pose aucun problème sérieux.

Le vote du 7 juillet n’a rien à voir avec un « antifascisme » réel, mais plus simplement avec l’envie de continuer comme ça. Quoi que l’on pense de ses capacités et de ses orientations, la très éventuelle arrivée du RN à proximité du pouvoir aurait constitué une rupture et provoqué une crise politique pouvant déboucher sur un changement de direction. En impliquant les couches populaires et en ralentissant l’effondrement. Pour essayer d’extirper la France du marécage belliciste pestilentiel dans lequel l’Occident sous direction américaine s’enfonce. Mais ça, les couches moyennes et ceux qui les représentent ne veulent rien entendre.

« Faut pas pleurer sur le lait renversé camarade. La lutte des classes ça existe et tu es du mauvais côté de l’Histoire, c’est tout. »

[thebusylilbee]

LIONEL JOSPIN QUI RESSUSCITE POUR TACLER MACRON ??? On aura vraiment tout vu là

[gonzalo-obes]

IMAGENES Y DATOS INTERESANTES DEL DIA 7 DE MAYO DE 2024

Día Mundial del Asma, Día Mundial de los Huérfanos del Sida, Semana de Acción Contra los Mosquitos, Año Internacional de los Camélidos.

Santa Judit, Santa Mastidia, Santa Domilia y San Benedicto.

Tal día como hoy en el año 2006

Un equipo de investigación descubre cuatro fósiles de una nueva especie de peces en China, que data de hace 400 millones de años.

1995

En Francia Jacques Chirac, líder de la derecha gaullista, resulta elegido presidente de la República, frente al candidato socialista Lionel Jospin. En 2002 logrará un segundo mandato que le mantendrá en la presidencia hasta 2007, año en el que renunciará a presentarse de nuevo. (Hace 29 años)

1954

50.000 vietnamitas liderados por Ho Chim Minh arrebatan, tras 57 días de duro asedio, Dien Bien Phu a los franceses que la habían conquistado el año anterior exhaustos de la guerra en la jungla. Con anterioridad, en 1949, Ho Chi Minh inició la guerra de guerrillas contra los franceses, que intentaban mantener intactos sus intereses coloniales en el país. Esta derrota supondrá la retirada de Francia de sus intereses coloniales en Indochina. (Hace 70 años)

1945

Se firma en Reims (Francia), el fin de la II Guerra Mundial en Europa tras más cinco años y medio de horror y con la rendición incondicional de Alemania. No obstante, hasta la rendición total de Japón, la victoria sólo está medio ganada. El 14 de agosto, Japón se rendirá a los aliados, después de ocho días trascendentales en los que se lanzarán dos bombas atómicas norteamericanas sobre territorio japonés. El 2 de septiembre concluirá oficialmente la Segunda Guerra Mundial, con la firma de la rendición japonesa en el acorazado Missouri, anclado en la Bahía de Tokio. (Hace 79 años)

1929

El nacionalista Chiang Kai Chek se convierte en presidente del Consejo Central Supremo de la República China. (Hace 95 años)

1915

Cerca del viejo faro de Old Kinsale frente a las costas irlandesas, el trasatlántico estadounidense Lusitania resulta hundido por submarinos alemanes. Perecen un total de 1.198 personas, 234 de las cuales son norteamericanas. 785 de las víctimas son pasajeros (entre ellos 291 mujeres y 94 niños) y 413 tripulantes. La muerte de los ciudadanos estadounidenses influirá notablemente para que los Estados Unidos entren en la I Guerra Mundial dos años más tarde. (Hace 109 años)

1875

A cambio de 18 de las islas Kuriles, Japón cede a Rusia la isla de Sajalín meridional. (Hace 149 años)

1824

En el Teatro de la Corte Imperial de Viena (Austria), abarrotado de un público selecto, tiene lugar el estreno de la Novena Sinfonía en re menor, de Ludwig van Beethoven, completamente sordo e impedido de oír nada de lo que su genio es capaz de crear. A partir del segundo movimiento, un público asombrado y embelesado por la riqueza y amplitud de lo que escucha, estalla en aplausos. Al final del concierto, un Beethoven emocionado verá entre lágrimas, a todos los asistentes puestos en pie que no pararán de ovacionarle. (Hace 200 años)

1682

En Moscú (Rusia) se producen graves enfrentamientos por la sucesión imperial, ya que al morir el Zar Feodor III el 27 de abril pasado, la Asamblea Nacional elige como nuevo Zar a su hermano Pedro I, de 10 años de edad. La Corte, sin embargo, considera ilegal esta designación, pero reinará hasta su muerte en 1725, convirtiendo a Rusia en una potencia. (Hace 342 años)

1429

En Francia, Juana de Arco al frente de un ejército de 5.000 hombres, se apodera del acceso de la ciudad de Orleans. Juana de Arco resulta herida de gravedad en su hombro izquierdo durante la batalla por una flecha inglesa. Al día siguiente su tropa tomará la ciudad y a continuación, realizará una serie de campañas triunfantes que despejarán al delfín Carlos el camino hacia Reims, permintiendo su coronación como Carlos VII de Francia el 17 de julio de este mismo año. (Hace 595 años)

1274

Convocado por el papa romano Gregorio X, en la ciudad francesa de Lyon, tiene lugar la apertura del II Concilio de Lyon para adelantar una reforma de la Iglesia, la unión con los griegos y la situación de Jerusalén y las cruzadas. Se desarrollará a lo largo de seis sesiones a las que asistirán cerca de medio millar de obispos, sesenta abades y más de mil prelados o sus procuradores entre los que destacarán San Buenaventura que morirá durante las sesiones. Santo Tomás de Aquino, que también pretende participar en el concilio, fallecerá en el camino. El Concilio se cerrará el día 17 de julio de este año y nada de lo que se aprobará llegará a tener un total cumplimiento: La Iglesia no resultará reformada, las cruzadas no se continuarán, y la pretendida "unión" con la Iglesia griega no se materializará ni tan siquiera en un mero acercamiento. (Hace 750 años)

[yespat49]

La forfaiture de l’infâme Pierre Moscovici

Bernard Germain Cet individu, socialiste de son état, fut d’abord député européen de 1994 à 1997 puis ministre chargé des Affaires européennes de 1997 à 2002 sous Lionel Jospin. Il fut également vice président du Parlement européen de 2004 à 2007. Il fut ensuite député en France puis directeur de campagne du candidat Hollande en 2012. Lorsque ce dernier fut élu, il nomma Pierre Moscovici ministre…

[actu-juridique]

La gauche plurielle (1997-2002) - Portail Universitaire du droit

https://justifiable.fr/?p=1280 https://justifiable.fr/?p=1280 #droit #gauche #plurielle #Portail #Universitaire Présentation de l’éditeur Le séisme politique que fut la disqualification de Lionel Jospin et la présence au second tour de l’élection présidentielle du candidat d’extrême-droite, Jean-Marie Le Pen, occulte encore aujourd’hui les cinq années qui ont précédé. Elles furent pourtant un moment important de l’histoire de la gauche française avec une union qui crée la surprise en remportant les élections législatives de 1997, suite à la dissolution de Jacques Chirac. Ce gouvernement conduit par Lionel Jospin dont nous retranscrivons ici le témoignage met en oeuvre des réformes importantes qui continuent à marquer notre quotidien encore aujourd’hui : 35h, loi SRU, loi Taubira, CMU, AME, PACS. En dépit de sa diversité avec des Verts qui n’avaient jamais exercé le pouvoir et des communistes aux antipodes sur les questions environnementales comment cette alliance tient-elle jusqu’au bout ? Comment le président de la République et la droite se situent-ils face à cette gauche unie Grâce à des archives inédites et des témoignages rares – Lionel Jospin, Dominique Voynet, Jean-Claude Gayssot, Olivier Schrameck, Louis Gauthier, Jean-Christophe Cambadélis – cet ouvrage fait le bilan de ces cinq années de gouvernement de gauche et leur portée jusqu’à nos jours. Contributeurs : Kevin Alleno, Régis Boulat, Antony Burlaud, Alexandre Chabert, Léonard Dermarkarian, Bernard Dolez, Sébastien Ledoux, Didier Maus, Thomas Morel, Adrien Renaudet, Sébastien Repaire, Élisa Steier, Jean-Philippe Tonneau. Pierre-Emmanuel Guigo est maître de conférences en histoire à l’université Paris-Est Créteil (Centre de recherche en histoire européenne comparée). Il est l’auteur de Michel Rocard (Perrin, 2020) et Pierre Mauroy, Le dernier socialiste (Passés composés, 2024). Thibault Tellier est professeur des universités à Sciences Po Rennes (Laboratoire Arènes). Il est l’auteur de plusieurs livres dont L’Enfant de La Courneuve (Michalon, 2024) et Histoire de la banlieue (Perrin, 2024). Source link JUSTIFIABLE s’enrichit avec une nouvelle catégorie dédiée à l’Histoire du droit, alimentée par le flux RSS de univ-droit.fr. Cette section propose des articles approfondis et régulièrement mis à jour sur l’évolution des systèmes juridiques, les grandes doctrines, et les événements marquants qui ont façonné le droit contemporain. Ce nouvel espace est pensé pour les professionnels, les étudiants, et les passionnés d’histoire juridique, en quête de ressources fiables et structurées pour mieux comprendre les fondements et l’évolution des normes juridiques. Plongez dès maintenant dans cette catégorie pour explorer le passé et enrichir vos connaissances juridiques.

[ondessiderales]

Il ne faut pas attendre tout de l'État.

[mariesrbouipochodian]

En 2014, tartois se faisait passer pour Mme charreyre.

Elle a dit ''preums'' ''c'est à moi de me venger de marie ( moi)''...

En 2017, Mme charreyre a dit ''il faut accuser la maman et la soeur. On s'en sortira ''

Donc tartois a perverti ma mère et ma sœur. Puis les a tuées, puis les a remplacées par sa famille qu'elle accusera le jour venu encore une fois..

Elle est monomaniaque et dogmatique, une vraie Lionel Jospin...

Elle veut me garder, me torturer et accuser maman et ma soeur d'avoir autorisé ça puisqu'elles ouvrent la porte de l'appartement....

Quand vous me lisez, vous croyez que je suis une Tanguy.

En fait, tartois dit me dominer.

Comme si Francesca de 1999 avec Pierre Bellanger et Francesca de 2017 étaient mes filles. Elle me hait encore plus qu'elle les a haies elles.

[rommelveitia]

¿Quién es el ultra comunista admirador de Chávez que lidera la facción que ganó las elecciones en Francia?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, el líder de extrema izquierda que dio vuelta los resultados.

Mélenchon, de 72 años, lleva décadas en la escena política francesa y siendo miembro del Partido Socialista, ocupó cargos ministeriales en gobiernos anteriores.

Es una de las figuras más divisivas de la política francesa, que entusiasma y horroriza a los votantes con sus desenfrenadas propuestas de impuestos y gastos; su retórica sobre la lucha de clases y sus posiciones controvertidas en materia de política exterior, especialmente en Gaza, ante lo que sus críticos lo acusan de antisemitismo, algo que él niega.

En el pasado, se mostró admirador de Hugo Chávez, Cristina Kirchner y la revolución Bolivariana.

Mélenchon era un senador socialista y trotskista como el exprimer ministro Lionel Jospin. Con una abuela andaluza y un español perfecto, el exministro de Educación de la enseñanza superior descubrió el neopopulismo chavista y kirchnerista y se enamoró de él.

El dirigente político es antieuropeo y admirador del presidente ruso Vladimir Putin.

Mélenchon nació en Tánger, Marruecos, en 1951, y es licenciado en Filosofía y Letras Modernas

🗞️Con Información del resumen informativo La Ceiba

[dankusner]

FRANCE — French far right ahead in 1st round of snap elections. Here's how runoff works and what comes next

PARIS (AP) — French voters face a decisive choice on July 7 in the runoff of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation — or no majority emerging at all.

Official results suggest Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration, nationalist party National Rally stands a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain amid the complex voting system and political tactics.

What happened?

In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally and its allies arrived ahead with around one-third of the votes.

The New Popular Front coalition that includes center-left, greens and hard-left forces came in second position, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.

Dozens of candidates who won at least 50% of Sunday’s vote were elected outright.

All the other races head to a second round June 7 involving two or three top candidates.

Polling projections suggest the National Rally will have the most seats in the next National Assembly, but it is unclear whether it will get an absolute majority of 289 of the 577 seats.

The French voting system is not proportionate to nationwide support for a party.

Legislators are elected by district.

What’s next?

The National Rally’s rivals are scrambling to keep it from getting an absolute majority.

The left-wing coalition said it would withdraw its candidates in districts where they finished in third position in order to support other candidates opposed to the far right.

Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would step down before the runoff to try to block the National Rally.

That tactic worked in the past, when Le Pen’s party and its predecessor National Front were considered a political pariah by many. But now Le Pen’s party has wide and deep support across the country.

Why is the far right rising?

While France has one of the world’s biggest economies and is an important diplomatic and military power, many French voters are struggling with inflation and low incomes and a sense that they are being left behind by globalization.

Le Pen’s party, which blames immigration for many of France’s problems, has tapped into that voter frustration and built a nationwide support network, notably in small towns and farming communities that see Macron and the Paris political class as out of touch.

What’s cohabitation?

If the National Rally or another political force than his centrist alliance gets a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority.

In such a situation — called “cohabitation” in France — the government would implement policies that diverge from the president’s plan.

France’s modern Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last one under conservative President Jacques Chirac, with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.

The prime minister is accountable to the parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.

The president is weakened at home during cohabitation, but still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties.

The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, and is the one holding the nuclear codes.

Why does it matter?

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of France’s two houses of parliament.

It has the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, dominated by conservatives.

Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027, and said he would not step down before the end of his term.

But a weakened French president could complicate many issues on the world stage.

During previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policies were considered the informal “reserved field” of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.

Yet today, both the far-right and the leftist coalition’s views in these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and would likely be a subject of tension during a potential cohabitation.

Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could becomes prime minister if his party wins the majority of the seats, said he intends “to be a cohabitation prime minister who is respectful of the Constitution and of the President of the Republic’s role but uncompromising about the policies we will implement.”

Bardella said that as a prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine — a possibility Macron has not ruled out.

Bardella also said he would refuse French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weaponry capable of striking targets within Russia itself.

What happens if there’s no majority?

The president can name a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats at the National Assembly even if they don’t have an absolute majority — this was the case of Macron’s own centrist alliance since 2022.

Yet the National Rally already said it would reject such an option, because it would mean a far-right government could soon be overthrown through a no-confidence vote if other political parties join together.

The president could try to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, an option that sounds unlikely, given the political divergences.

Another option would be to appoint “a government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties but which would still need to be accepted by a majority at the National Assembly. Such a government would likely deal mostly with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.

If political talks take too long amid summer holidays and the July 26-Aug. 11 Olympics in Paris, Macron’s centrist government could keep a transitional government pending further decisions.

Why the French Far Right Triumphed

On Sunday, France voted in the first round of its National Assembly elections, which were called by President Emmanuel Macron earlier this month, three years before they were scheduled.

The result was that the far-right National Rally—the party of the former Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen—scored approximately thirty-four per cent of the vote, followed by an alliance of left parties, with around twenty-eight per cent of the vote, and Macron’s centrist coalition in third place, with twenty-one per cent of the vote.

The specific seat-by-seat results are not yet known, but the far right appears to be on the verge of either a legislative majority—which would mean that the National Rally would likely get to choose the next Prime Minister—or a hung Parliament, with the far right in control of the most seats.

(The second and final round of the election, consisting of runoffs in individual constituencies, will take place on July 7th.)

Macron’s shocking decision to call the vote—the first snap elections since 1997—came immediately after the far right exceeded expectations in European Parliamentary elections, and was intended to blunt the far right’s rise, which Macron has deemed a threat to the future of France.

Macron insisted the French come out to vote, and indeed they did—turnout was almost one and a half times as high as during the last National Assembly election—but the results merely showed the far right’s strength.

(The next Presidential election is scheduled for 2027; Macron will not be able to run again.)

To discuss the results, I spoke by phone with Cécile Alduy, a professor of French studies at Stanford and a specialist on the French far right.

During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why Macron took such a huge gamble, how the relationship of the French people to the far right has changed in the past decade, and whether the center and left can unite on July 7th and in the future.

What is your main takeaway from the first-round results?

Macron made this huge gamble that a snap election could restore a majority for his coalition, and that the opposition would not have time to prepare and rally their own troops, and he has lost his gamble.

But actually the unequivocal lesson is that Macron’s alliance has taken a huge hit.

They could lose almost two hundred seats.

This is huge, and the only reason that there was this election is that Macron decided to have it.

And then there is the fact that the turnout was tremendous, which means that the results that we get in percentage points correlate to extremely high numbers of people voting.

And so the thirty-four per cent for the National Rally, which is in and of itself unprecedented, corresponds to about twelve million individuals going to cast a National Rally ballot.

That’s a huge mobilization, and almost as much as Marine Le Pen got in the final round of the Presidential election in 2022.

That’s staggering.

Macron had essentially said when he called the snap election that this was a hinge moment for the future of the French Republic and that people needed to show up.

And so I think there was some hope that, if turnout was this high, it would mean that voters had come out to reject the far right.

That’s exactly what I’m trying to say.

The expectation was that turnout would be much higher than in 2022, the last time we also had elections for the National Assembly, and people thought this would mean that people were mobilizing against the far right.

But actually what happened is everyone mobilized their troops.

So the far right managed to gather even more momentum than three weeks ago during the European Parliamentary elections, and gain in numbers of votes, in percentage points, and in millions of people going to cast a ballot for them.

For a long time, political scientists and commentators were of the opinion that a large part of the reason people voted for the far right was to express their protest against the establishment.

It was a quiet anger and frustration.

So it was a choice by default.

But you can’t say that anymore.

Many people believe in what the National Rally is proposing, and they’re gathering toward it.

It is in favor of a specific agenda.

So I think it’s mind-blowing in terms of not just the results but what it means in the change in the French population, in what they view as desirable for the future of France, honestly.

I can imagine American readers saying that thirty-four per cent doesn’t seem like that much.

Donald Trump won forty-seven per cent of the vote in 2020.

But it does seem, at least from my limited knowledge of France, that, given the multiparty nature of the system, parties will often advance to the second round in Presidential elections with votes in the twenties.

So thirty-four per cent is incredible.

Tremendous.

Yeah, even very established governing parties like the French Republican Party, or the Socialist Party, fifteen years ago, if they got thirty per cent in the first round, they would have be so happy.

These are the center-right and center-left parties, respectively—the sort of traditional center-right and center-left parties, which have really fallen since then.

Yes.

And that was a huge victory, because we are in a two-round system.

It’s not a bipolar model, as in the U.S.

You have a number of candidates.

That means that the votes are dispersed around in the first round. In the second round, you could still have two or three or sometimes even four candidates, but this is where you’re going to win that seat. And to come to the second round with so much momentum is mind-blowing.

So why did Macron do this?

There are the official reasons, and there are the electoral reasons, and then there are the psychological reasons.

I think the official reason was, O.K., the European elections showed a strong rejection of the President’s coalition, which landed at fourteen per cent, which is abysmal.

And there was this risk that the current government would not be able to pass new laws, because they don’t have an absolute majority in congress.

And so they had to force through retirement reform, and immigration reform.

And it was becoming really difficult to pass legislation and therefore have any concrete action in government.

So he wanted to reshuffle everything and have voters face their responsibilities of deciding what direction they wanted the country to go toward.

The electoral reason was that the snap election was so quickly organized—it’s the shortest campaign in France since 1958.

Three weeks to organize administratively, officially, make alliances, find candidates, etc.

And the calculus was that the majority parties were already very organized and united.

The left was in shambles and divided. And the National Rally is not very organized and would not be able to make any alliance because they had been ostracized for so long.

But the left organized in four days and created this new coalition.

And the National Rally managed to find allies in the ranks of the Republican Party.

And that changed the entire outcome.

And the third reason for the snap election, and it’s not me psychologizing Macron, but reports from how the decision was made and from insiders, is that he has always wanted to present himself as the savior against the risk of Marine Le Pen in the Presidential election, the savior when COVID-19 hit France—and he decided there was a war against COVID—the savior of the political system in 2017, and a disruptor.

And so this attitude of being the person that can change history, disrupt history, and save it from itself has been his own personal narrative, his own storytelling.

And he started to feel he did not have any more room to maneuver, to act, to be the proactive President who writes history because of this kind of relative majority he had.

And he wanted to reshuffle the thing and create something historical.

I think the result is not exactly what he had in mind, but there is a psychological element of someone who is imbued by a sense of his own might and power to change history.

And he did not consult with many people.

This was a very solitary decision.

So there is the psychological element of a personality who’s very narcissistic, in the way he exerts power with very little counsel from others, very little desire to consult different branches of government, for instance, like the leader of the Senate, as he was supposed to do, according to the constitution.

France’s moderates face extreme choices

Some voters see no good options in July 7 runoff

CREPY-EN-VALOIS, France – Denise Rollet says she faces no good options in France’s runoff legislative vote in the coming days.

The 80-year-old former teacher from Crepy-en-Valois, a small, middle-class town northeast of Paris, must now pick a candidate from two parties she would never vote for:

Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, or a Socialist standing as part of a hastily assembled leftist alliance.

“On Sunday, things get serious, and frankly, I have no idea who I’ll vote for,” she said.

Across France, millions of moderate voters are facing what they regard as grim choices ahead of Sunday’s crucial legislative runoff vote that could hand power to the National Rally, or RN.

The party has sought to rebrand itself as a mainstream right-wing party focused on immigration and pocketbook issues, but remains a pariah for many in France due to its past association with racism and antisemitism.

The RN scored historic gains in Sunday’s first-round vote. However, it remains unclear whether it will win the majority it says it needs to govern France in an awkward “cohabitation” with centrist President Emmanuel Macron.

Sunday’s results sparked a bout of furious horsetrading.

Third-placed centrist and leftist candidates struck deals to sit out the runoff to prevent the anti-RN vote from splitting in a long-running political ritual known as the “republican front.”

The poor showing of Macron’s alliance, which came third in Sunday’s vote, underlines the collapse of the traditional mainstream during his seven years in power, pushing voters to more hardline parties on the left and right.

For some heading to the ballot box on Sunday, that means few palatable choices.

Charles-Edouard Parent, a retiree in Crepy-en-Valois, said he and lots of others he knew would be casting a blank vote “so as not to have to choose between these two extremes.”

Crepy-en-Valois is part of the fifth constituency of the Oise, a mostly conservative district that has been held by the center-right Republicans, or LR, since 1993.

The one-time party of former French President Jacques Chirac, the LR has been a victim of the hollowing out of the political center.

The party split before the first-round round vote with a small number of its lawmakers decamping to the RN.

Many LR voters in Crepy-en-Valois followed suit.

Will the ‘republican front’ hold?

Frédéric-Pierre Vos, the RN candidate for the Oise’s fifth constituency, easily won the district with more than 42% of the vote.

A Le Pen confidant and RN party lawyer who helped engineer the 2015 expulsion of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, from the party for antisemitic remarks, Vos acknowledged he had been parachuted into a constituency with which he had few links.

Despite calls by Macron and other centrist and leftist leaders for the French to vote for non-RN candidates, Vos was confident of a runoff victory.

He believed his chances were bolstered by the fact he was facing a leftist opponent after Pierre Vatin, the LR incumbent who had represented the district since 2017, failed to make the second round. Sudhir Hazareesingh, a French politics expert at Oxford University, said Vos’ instinct was likely correct.

Leftist electorates “are generally more willing to vote for a centrist to keep out the extreme right,” Hazareesingh said, but “center and right-wing voters are more reluctant to vote for a candidate of the left against the RN in the second round.”

Former businessman Pascal Odent, 71, voted for the RN as a bulwark against the “incoherent” hard-left. In an interview in the landscaped gardens of his handsome stone home, he said it was also time to give the far right a chance.

“I’m not looking for grand economic ideas,” he said. “We just want our lives to remain pleasant, and that our standard of living is maintained, that it is agreeable.”

Bertrand Brassens, a former civil servant and Socialist member of the leftist alliance, came second in Sunday’s vote, 20 points behind Vos.

Brassens said his chances of winning a second-round victory, which would likely be narrow, depended on winning over Macron supporters and the small remaining cohort of LR voters who were no fans of the left but even less in tune with the RN.

“For many people, I’m a socialist,” he said. “But I’m a republican socialist, in every sense of the word.”

He hoped the “republican front” would hold, but was uncertain.

“If it works 100%, I’m elected,” he said. “If it holds 50%, I lose.”

Ryan James Girdusky weighs in on French politics, what election could mean for the West

Ryan James Girdusky, an expert on right-wing populism, commented on Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party’s victory in the first round of the French parliamentary elections.

The author of the National Populist Newsletter said the first round of the election, which occurred on June 30, was “fundamentally the end of [Emmanuel] Macron’s presidency.”

Macron’s party, Renaissance, once a majority in the French parliament, has dwindled to a distant third-place contender, receiving just 20% of the vote in the first round of the French election.

Meanwhile, his arch-rival Marine Le Pen’s National Rally surged to 33% after an unusually high turnout, with the left-wing New Popular Front coalition coming in second with 28%, CNN reported.

Voters were driven to the polls and toward Le Pen largely because of immigration, Girdusky, who authored the 2020 bestseller They’re Not Listening: How The Elites Created the National Populist Revolution, said.

Specifically, French voters were concerned about the Islamization of France through mass immigration, the failure to stop wokeism, and the raising of the retirement age from 60 to 62, Girdusky said.

Given Le Pen’s party’s smashing success during the European Parliament elections in June, where the National Rally was similarly decisively victorious, The Dallas Express asked Girdusky what possessed Macron to call this election.

Girdusky said there are three competing theories.

The first theory is that Macron thought there would be a “general rally for his party,” where the European Parliament results would spur his pro-EU base to the polls to fend off gains made by euroskeptical parties.

The second theory was that Macron believed if Le Pen got the majority it would “collapse the economy” and thus nuke her presidential chances when she seeks the highest office for the fourth time in 2027.

“The last idea … was that it would splinter the vote and make both the far left and far right come out [looking] preposterous and allow centrist candidates to run.

But everything went wrong,” Girdusky said, noting that there was not sufficient conflict between the various wings of French politics to produce this outcome.

Irrespective of whatever drove the French president to call this election, Girdusky noted Renaissance suffered the same issues as the socialists.

They were perceived as the party of the wealthy elite while everyone else was left behind.

“The very, very wealthy … went for the far-left … [while] the upper middle class went for Macron,” he said after noting that nearly every other major voting bloc supported Le Pen.

In some cases, Le Pen’s party was so successful it captured a seat held by the communist party’s president in a communist stronghold and received the coveted endorsement of one of the last famed Nazi hunters.

On Sunday, French voters will cast ballots in an unprecedented race. The French have a unique electoral system that almost always requires two rounds of voting to determine a winner for each seat in their 577-seat parliament.

If a candidate does not receive 50% of the vote in the first round, the constituency must have a second round featuring the two to four top-performing candidates.

Usually, only two candidates advance.

However, Girdusky said that this next race would likely break every record.

“In a normal election year, there are very few three-way races. The most ever was in the early 90s and there were 105 … in this election … there are going to be 300 plus.”

Should National Rally win a majority of parliamentary seats, Jordan Bardella, a protegé of Le Pen, will become prime minister.

This will deprive Macron of the majority he needs to pass his priority legislation for the remainder of his term which expires in May 2027.

Girdusky said this could mean major immigration reforms and a more assertive position against the EU, amongst other things.

However, this is not a guarantee. “First-round results, [historically] do not guarantee second-round success,” Girdusky recalled before pointing out past examples where the various left-wing parties have coordinated to damage National Rally’s electoral prospects.

At times, this has included parties like the socialists withdrawing from races so there could be a united left-wing front against Le Pen’s allies.

Will that happen in this election?

“A number of exit polls have shown that if it was a choice between the far-left and Le Pen, which will be the case in most of these elections, voters overwhelmingly want the National Rally,” Girdusky said.

Girdusky predicts National Rally will not get the simple majority needed to take complete control of parliament, but they will win “250-260 seats.”

In a scenario like this, Girdusky said the situation would be such “utter chaos” that it could lead to Macron’s resignation.

If Le Pen has another successful turnout, DX asked Girdusky if this would be a bellwether for the United States and Europe.

Girdusky said it would be another wave in the West’s quickly changing political tide that signals citizens are demanding change in immigration policy.

In his view, it would be a major shockwave to the European political establishment.

He also mentioned his belief that Donald Trump will be the likely victor in the American general election in November because of a similar political current stateside.

He closed on these words, “Center-right parties from the Republicans on to every party in Europe have the decision to make … [are they] so in love with neoliberalism that they do not care about the rise of the far-right, or are they more concerned with preserving liberal institutions so they’re going to meet the far-right voters in the middle and say, ‘We are going to take on the issue of immigration,’ which is probably the biggest issue of our time.”

Marine Le Pen is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, a presidential candidate from the 2002 election, who has been repeatedly fined for Holocaust denial.

Marine has distinguished herself from her father by expelling him and others from the party, moderating some views, and bringing her brand of national populism to new audiences, including minorities and gays.

Unlike Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron does not come from a political dynasty.

He briefly held a deputy secretary-general role in former President Francois Hollande’s administration and was economics minister for former Prime Minister Manuel Valls before leading the centrist coalition party Renaissance, then called En Marche, to victory in 2017.

So far, he and Le Pen have faced off in two elections. In 2017, Macron won 66%, compared to Le Pen’s 34%.

By 2022, that margin had thinned to 58% to 41%. Macron is term-limited and cannot run for another term.

Should Macron’s presidency end for any reason, another election would be called before the prescribed conclusion of his term.

[actu24hp]

Jospin soutient le Nouveau Front populaire et critique la dissolution | TV5MONDE

L’ancien Premier ministre socialiste Lionel Jospin a apporté dimanche son soutien au Nouveau Front populaire et critiqué Emmanuel Macron qui, avec la dissolution, “offre au Rassemblement national l’occasion de briguer le pouvoir”. “En convoquant maintenant les élections législatives, le président offre au Rassemblement national l’occasion de briguer le pouvoir en France. Ce n’est pas…

[warningsine]

Speaking at a surprise address to the nation on Sunday evening, French president Emmanuel Macron told French citizens he had “decided to give [them] back the choice of our parliamentary future through the vote”. These words, pronounced in reaction to the historic surge of the far-right National Rally at the European elections, triggered the dissolution of France’s parliament and snap elections on 30 June and 7 July. Clea Chakraverty of The Conversation France spoke to the French parliament specialist, Julien Robin, to understand what the decision could mean for French politics.

Clea Chakraverty: How can European results have such an impact on the French parliament?

Julien Robin: For a long time, the European vote was considered to be of “second order” – a term coined by political scientists Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt to describe the first European elections in 1979. These were elections that were not national, and in which voter turnout was often lower than in “first-order” elections.

However, since the 2014 European elections, voter turnout has been on the rise, at 42.43% – that’s 1.8 points higher than in 2009. This trend is confirmed by the 2024 ballot, which will have galvanised more voters than in 2019 (+2.5 points compared to the turnout of 50.12% in 2019). Turnout is now at its highest since the 1994 European elections.

Another element to have strengthened European elections is the 2019 reform of the voting system. Whereas deputies for the European elections in France were previously divided in eight regional electoral constituencies (see figure 1), the voting system now only comprises a single national constituency. This has allowed voters to better identify candidates as well as the issues at stake.

Above all, these elections have now become a referendum on Macron and an electoral springboard for political forces (notably the National Rally, the left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed, and even centrist Renaissance).

In recent days, we have been able to see the election take on a further national character through the format of television debates. Take, for example, the two-way debate between the far-right candidate Jordan Bardella and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, on 24 May, or Macron’s proposal to debate Marine Le Pen as part of the European elections campaign. These events echo the presidential election of 2022, or even give a possible foretaste of that of 2027.

When was the last time the French parliament was dissolved, and what does it tell us about the current state of French politics?

The last dissolution dates back to 1997 and was triggered by President Jacques Chirac. His intention was to breathe new life into the presidential majority in the National Assembly, which had been weakened by the mass demonstrations against the 1995 pension reform and the 1997 deficit reduction plans. At the time, the majority in the National Assembly was not strictly that of President Chirac. It had emerged from the 1993 elections, two years before he was elected head of state. By attempting to galvanise voters at the ballot box, Chirac’s decision would ultimately lead to the advent of the plural left, with a government led by Lionel Jospin.

Politically, the context was thorny for Macron, with a minority government in the National Assembly. To force through unpopular measures, the government has therefore had to increasingly rely on bypassing parliament by invoking article 49.3. Meanwhile, there have been increasing rumours of no confidence votes. Not to mention the explosion in the number of political groups in the National Assembly, of which there are now ten, which make it tricky for the government to obtain stable majorities for the vote on bills.

We can see Macron’s decision to dissolve the national assembly as true to form. The president, after all, loves disruption. The move can be interpreted as a show of power, giving back the voice to voters in the form of legislative elections.

What’s at stake now at the National Assembly?

One issue observers will be watching will be whether parliament comes out of the June 2024 elections as fragmented as in June 2022. Back then, the parliament’s resulting division in ten parliamentary groups was unprecedented for the Fifth Republic. The new structure will have a real impact on work flow at the Assembly.

For the political groupings, there are several issues at stake:

on the left: these elections will determine the new balance of power between the various stakeholders in the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES), France’s left-wing electoral alliance created in 2022 including France Unbowed (LFI), the Socialist Party (PS), the Communist Party (PCF), the Greens and other small parties. Clouds have been hanging over the alliance after France Unbowed refused to qualify Hamas as a terrorist group in October 2023. The European elections have now shifted power from France Unbowed to the social democrats, which have been boosted to third place. The Greens, on the other hand, have lost considerable support. As soon as the results were announced, their candidate, Marie Toussaint, as well as other leftwing figures called for discussions on a joint list.

for the RN: while in a secret poll commissioned by the Republicans in December 2023, the RN was predicted to have a majority in the event of early general elections, the real issue is whether the RN will succeed in coming to power by obtaining a real majority in the National Assembly, which is necessary to obtain the government’s confidence. The RN’s exceptional result in the European elections (16 points ahead of the current majority) is a real springboard for these early elections.

for Renaissance: at a time when the question of the post-Macron era has arisen as soon as he is re-elected in 2022, Renaissance will have to consider its political positioning and, above all, the possibility of forming electoral alliances with Les Républicains at local level. This could be a foregone conclusion, since Stéphane Séjourné, as SG of Renaissance, announced this evening to AFP that the majority “will not present a candidate” against outgoing MPs “who are part of the Republican field”.

The issue is that in seven years, the presidential party has gone from having the largest majority in the National Assembly under the Vᵉ Republic in 2017, to a relative majority in 2022, and then a possible move into opposition.

In addition, the challenge for the Republicans is to see whether the party will still remain a real national political force, knowing that it has just achieved its worst score in a European election, and above all what position will be adopted in the event of the RN’s success in the next legislative elections.

Can the President’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly be seen as an admission of weakness? What could be the presidential party’s strategy?

Macron is both admitting his weakness and anticipating a likely no confidence vote – something that has been announced for months by certain groups in the Assembly. It is also a sign that President Macron will have experienced all the unprecedented situations under the Fifth Parliament: the largest majority, then a minority government and now a dissolution.

Is a cohabitation with the National Rally conceivable? Or could we even imagine a radical change to the French party system?

A cohabitation with the RN is conceivable, but we’ll have to see what happens after these early general elections. According to political scientists Bruno Jérome, Philippe Mongrain and Richard Nadeau, the French party system was in the process of quadripolarisation. The four blocs are the traditional left and right, as well as Macronian centrism and the RN. From now on, the European elections will settle the internal tensions within each bloc:

RN: Should it pursue a strategy of “normalisation�� even if it means losing votes to Reconquête?

The right: With whom should it form a coalition (or at least come to an agreement), not only to survive politically, but also to maximise its influence in parliament?

The Macronist centre: How can it reinvent itself in a second term which sounds like the end of its reign?

The left (overall): Will the social-democratic (PS) or the radical (LFI) line dominate? Is there a third way with the emergence of the increasingly popular François Ruffin?

Never have the European elections had such an impact on French politics.