#Liberal Party of Australia

[shinymeowstic]

you can't waste your vote in australia! and voting a minor party first gives them funding and helps our political environment by encouraging little guys with different views to shine! minor parties getting lots of votes makes the larger parties pay attention to what they are doing you can access my pdfs and jpegs here with a full 30+ page pdf with a summary of all the current federal parties, voting cheat sheets, voting resources & summaries for free!

[claraameliapond]

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"I've approved more than 80 renewable energy projects, enough to power every single home in Australia.

We've added 15 gigawatts of renewable energy to the grid, that's 3 times more than Snowy hydro, it's more than the nuclear plants will ever deliver, if they are ever built, - we've done that already, in just 3 years.

We've already done that.

We're on track to get to 43% emissions reduction,

We're on track to get to 82% renewable energy .

We are engaged in the biggest transformation of the Australian Economy in anybody's living memory

And instead you get this negativity from the sidelines. "

- Tanya Plibersek, Minister for the Environment and Water, Australian Labor Government

VOTE LABOR FOR THE ENVIRONMENT, CLEAN ENERGY, PROTECTED LAND AND OCEANS, HEALTHCARE, STRENGHENED MEDICARE AND PHARMACEUTICAL BENEFITS SCHEME, LOWER COST OF LIVING, REGULATION OF PRICE GOUGING AND SUPERMARKETS , 100% FULLY FUNDED SCHOOLS, FREE TAFE, URGENT CARE CLINICS, EDUCATION, THE ECONOMY. - and , you know, everything else

[tomorrowusa]

Following quickly after Canada, Australia goes to the polls on Saturday. Though because of the time difference, it will seem more like late Friday/very early Saturday to people in the Americas, Africa, and Europe.

To avoid confusion for people outside Australia, names of parties and political groupings require a little explanation.

The word Coalition refers to three right of center parties which have generally acted together as a single unit in Parliament for decades. They are: The Liberal Party of Australia, The Liberal National Party of Queensland, and the National Party of Australia. Despite the word liberal, those parties are more like the pre-Brexit Conservative Party in the UK in terms of ideology. In everyday parlance, people sometimes use Coalition and Liberal interchangeably – probably to the annoyance of the National Party. The leader of the Coalition is currently opposition leader Peter Dutton.

Currently the Australian Labor Party (ALP) is in power. It's not greatly different from the current Labour Party in the UK – except for the lack of a u. The ALP is headed by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

As with Canada, the colors associated with the parties are opposite those used for ideologically related parties in the US. So Red = Labor, Blue = the Coalition.

Independents are a thing and are currently trending in Australia. And there are also smaller parties such as the Green Party.

The ALP had been trailing in the polls but seems to have pulled ahead in recent months. While Donald Trump hasn't threatened to annex Australia, he's still casting a shadow over the election campaign.

Australia holds a national election on Saturday, and a campaign coinciding with the U.S. president's stop-start tariffs and volatile diplomacy is bolstering the prospects of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his ruling centre-left Labor Party. Albanese does not name Trump when he tells voters a conservative government led by the Liberal Party opposition would bring "chaos" to Australia. "The last thing you need is a volatile government," Albanese said on Monday. "Trump is affecting everybody," said business owner Ian Atherton, 67, voting in Bondi Junction, among the 2.4 million Australians to have already cast a ballot by Monday. "What is happening externally is far more important than what is happening internally. I just want to keep the status quo," he added. When Trump was inaugurated in January, Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton was ahead in the polls, as Australians expressed anger over the cost of living and housing affordability.

In the 2022 election, the ALP won 77 seats in the 150 member House of Representatives. They are currently the favorites but may fall short of the 76 seats needed for a majority.

Most polls in the final stretch of the campaign show Labor ahead, although it may need the support of independent lawmakers to form government. "Voters want stability while an idiot like that is in charge in the United States," said Lawrence Jurman, 71. "I think it has hurt the Liberals."

The capital L Liberals are seen as being more Trump-friendly. A photo emerged of a Coalition senator wearing a MAGA cap and that did them no good.

Anyway, Australia's House of Representatives is elected from single member districts though a ranked choice system is used. So in close races with lots of candidates, it may take an extra day or so to determine a winner.

And in Australia, a constituency is called an electorate. The electorates have names rather than numbers; names for the electorates come from either geographic locations or famous dead Australians.

[tmarshconnors]

Reflecting on a Year of Change: Anthony Albanese

In August 2023, I penned a blog post titled "Anthony Albanese Should Be Removed from Office." At that time, I was staunchly convinced that the Liberal Party of Australia was the best political choice for the nation of Australia. While my political convictions remain unshaken, recent developments have led me to reflect on the role of Anthony Albanese, particularly his instrumental efforts in securing the release of Julian Assange.

A Year in Perspective

When I wrote that post, my criticisms of Anthony Albanese were driven by concerns about his leadership and the direction he was steering Australia. As a firm supporter of the Liberal Party of Australia, I believed that a change in leadership was necessary to ensure the country’s prosperity and stability. The policies and principles of the Liberal Party, in my view, aligned more closely with what I envisioned for Australia's future.

The Julian Assange Factor

However, as the months passed, a significant event unfolded that prompted me to reconsider my stance on Albanese's leadership—his involvement in the release of Julian Assange. For years, Assange's situation has been a contentious and polarising issue. 

The founder of WikiLeaks, Assange has been both vilified and lauded for his role in leaking classified information that exposed various government secrets. Mainly the US government.

Assange, who arrived in Australia on Wednesday evening, initially faced up to 175 years in prison after being charged with 17 counts under the U.S. Espionage Act and an additional hacking-related charge. He pled guilty to a single espionage charge and was subsequently released. Personally he’s a hero of mine but I digress.

Anthony Albanese's efforts in securing Assange's release cannot be overlooked. 

This was not a small feat; it required diplomatic finesse, political courage, and a deep conviction to human rights and justice. By working towards Assange’s release, Albanese demonstrated a level of advocacy and dedication that is commendable.

Why This Matters?

Assange's case is complex, intertwining issues of freedom of speech, journalistic integrity, and governmental transparency. Many viewed his prolonged detainment as a stark example of the lengths to which powerful entities would go to silence dissent. 

Albanese’s role in facilitating Assange’s release highlights his willingness to stand up against such injustices, even when it may not have been the most politically expedient path.

Admiration Despite Differences

While my political allegiance remains with the Liberal Party, I must acknowledge and admire Anthony Albanese for his actions regarding Julian Assange.

 It takes a leader of significant moral conviction to push for what they believe is right, especially in the face of international scrutiny and potential backlash. 

Albanese's determination in this matter has earned him a measure of respect in my eyes, despite our differing political views.

Moving Forward.

As we continue to navigate the complex landscape of Australian politics, it’s essential to recognise and appreciate the positive actions taken by our leaders, regardless of our political affiliations worldwide. 

Anthony Albanese's instrumental role in the release of Julian Assange is a reminder that leadership is multifaceted and that even those we may not fully support can make commendable contributions to society.

While my belief in the Liberal Party as the best choice for Australia remains steadfast, I am compelled to applaud Anthony Albanese for his commendable actions in the Assange case. 

It is a testament to the complexity of political leadership and the importance of acknowledging good deeds, irrespective of political divisions.

[destiel-news-network]

(Source)

As a reminder for my non-Aussie followers: the Australian Liberal Party is the right-wing party in Australia.

[you-need-not-apply]

AUSPOL TRENDING FOR THE FIRST TIME IVE EVER REMEMBER SEEING BECAUSE THE POTATO HEAD LOST HAS HEALED ME, CROPS WATERED, SKIN CLEAR

[phlebasphoenician]

Dutton Doesn’t Know the Price of Eggs

Leaders quizzed on price of eggs Before we hear from the undecided voters, let’s just circle back to an earlier rapid-fire question the leaders were asked – about the price of eggs. Peter Dutton answered that it would cost $4.20, while Anthony Albanese said the cost would be $7, “if you can find them”. The actual price was shown to be about, or just more than, $8.

Four fucking dollars and twenty cents?! When was the last time this man did the shopping?!

Also, I want to know where Albo buys his eggs - he's getting a good deal!

[glimmertriggers]

[nando161mando]

Democrats And Republicans are Horrible

[harmful-algal-bloom]

What’s the difference between Dutton and a toilet? A toilet has a seat.

[ladybugmania]

DUTTON, PALMER, WRIGHTSON

The Trumpet of PARASITES

Peter Dutton and his so-called policies are little more than hollow noise, rhetoric without resolve, robotic in delivery and deeply disconnected from the reality everyday Australians face. His team of yes-men and sycophants follow him like programmed drones, pretending to care for the people while parroting ideas that are either recycled, unrealistic, or downright dangerous.

Take his absurd power plant proposal, reviving nuclear energy as if it's the saviour of our nation. It’s laughable. What happens if something goes wrong? Where will the toxic waste go? Who manages the risk when the inevitable happens? This is not a solution, this is a future catastrophe waiting to happen, burdening the next generations with fallout, both literal and political.

Then there’s his personal narrative, dragging his own son into the political conversation as a token of relatability. Please. This is a man with the privilege and wealth to give his family a comfortable life, using them to score points in a game that doesn’t concern the majority struggling to make ends meet.

Let’s not forget his Trump-like behaviour. "Let’s get Australia back on track!" Sound familiar? It’s disturbingly close to “Make America Great Again,” isn’t it? It’s as if the ghost of Trump is whispering in his ear, guiding his speeches. It reeks of mimicry, of playing to the lowest common denominator, of fuelling fear instead of building hope.

The Liberal Party of today is not the Liberal Party of yesterday. We live in a different world, climate crisis, wealth inequality, indigenous justice, housing stress, yet Dutton’s mob act like it’s still 1950. They offer solutions fit for a time long gone, in a world that no longer exists.

And then there’s Clive Palmer and his train-wreck party of political parasites. His ads are as racist as they are ridiculous, seriously, a train with Asian writing used to promote a nationalist agenda? The hypocrisy is off the charts. Suellen Wrightson, another echo chamber of empty promises, blabbers on as if she’s going to deliver the moon, while sounding like the voiceover to a bad conspiracy video. Her recent statements have drawn criticism for being not only misleading but overtly xenophobic.

These parties, the Liberals, Palmer's circus, and the other "trumped-up patriots", are not fighting for Australians. They’re fighting for seats, power, and control. Just like that fish n’ chips shop racist from Queensland Pauline Hanson, and her One Nation rubbish of irony gaslighting xenophobic retoric, many of these reactionary voices are from up north, as if that corner of the map has become a breeding ground for backward politics.

Meanwhile, Albanese… yes, he’s not perfect. He sticks to the script too often and falls into the same old political routine. But at least he’s not pandering to white nationalism or Trump-style demagoguery. That alone is a relief in this climate of loud, divisive nonsense.

Australia must reject fascist-style politics. We are not a white supremacist state, we are a land that has been nurtured by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples for tens of thousands of years. This land was later colonised by the English, and then built by wave after wave of migrants from all over the world, Greek, Italian, Chinese, Vietnamese, Lebanese, Sudanese, Indian, and many more. Together, we shaped this country, not just a few rich men in suits claiming to speak for us.

If we allow these loud, power-hungry, manipulative forces to take over, they’ll strip away the very freedoms they pretend to defend. Bit by bit, freedom will become a distant memory, a faded dream. And what will rise in its place? A nightmare, silent, obedient, and locked down by fear.

We shouldn’t worship political parties or leaders. Choose what works for you and your loved ones, but never bow to these people like they’re monarchs. That era is dead. Hold them accountable. Scream their promises back at them. Make them work for the vote, not take it as entitlement.

Yours Truly

Moth Hawk

[goodnight-ensign]

Hey just a reminder that 1 in 10 Australians aren't sure who to vote for! With the election coming up this Saturday it's easy to check which parties stand for you with the voting compass. If you're not sure who aligns with your morals, or just want to see a breakdown of what the major parties stand for please please give the voting compass a try, it's entirely anonymous and is a handy tool to make sure your vote goes towards what you value.

Here is the link:

But if you don't trust links just search 'Australian voting compass' in Google and it should be the top result 😉 👍

[claraameliapond]

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Peter Dutton's Nuclear plan is a sham, it's just an excuse to keep coal and gas going longer.

The modelling says 2 billion extra tonnes of carbon dioxide will be released into the atmosphere if Peter Dutton's Nuclear plan goes ahead.

The power won't be ready until sometime in the 2040s,

600 billion dollars is what it'll cost,

and that'll provide provide 4 percent of Australia's energy needs.

It's just a joke.

VOTE LABOR 🗳 ☑ ✅

[faithliesinashes]

Hey Aussies!

Humanity Bites on tiktok created this handy dandy little spreadsheet that breaks down how the ALP, LNP, and Greens have voted on various policies

In case you needed a comparison on who to vote for this election.

[axvoter]

My election predictions

Polls are open around Australia, so let's have some fun making election predictions. I don't usually do this, but I have thoughts this year. Lots of 'em.

Now, I'm no oracle. In my 2022 review of the teals, I included some predictions. Here's how I fared. I predicted 2–3 out of Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan, Allegra Spender, and Kylea Tink would win, with particular confidence Daniel would be one of the winners; all four won. I was not persuaded Kate Chaney could win; she did, 51.26% on the two-candidate-preferred count. I said David Pocock would fall a few percent short for the ACT Senate; he beat Zed Seselja (Liberal incumbent) by 7.76%!

And I predicted that "one other indie, not necessarily a teal, [would] unseat an incumbent somewhere in the country". Another teal did unseat an incumbent—quite to my surprise, Sophie Scamps won Mackellar on Sydney's Northern Beaches (a land unto itself, imperceptible from outside). Moreover, non-teal independent Dai Le famously, notoriously, hilariously thwarted Kristina Keneally's attempt to parachute into Sydney's western suburbs from Scotland Island, north of the Northern Beaches.

So, let's go more comprehensive this time. What do I think is going to happen after polls close at 6pm?

(key: 2CP = two-candidate-preferred; 3CP = three-candidate-preferred)

Who forms government?

Labor forms government: it will be tight on whether it is minority or majority, but by the end of the night I think the vibes will be majority. If it is minority, it will be like NSW after the 2023 state election, where only Chris Minns and Labor could form a government. Peter Dutton will not be prime minister tomorrow. He might well not be leader of the opposition either.

Overall, I think in net seat terms this will be a "nothing ever happens" sort of election, but that few net changes will mask volatility around the country. There are many intriguing non-classic contests to watch in tonight's count (a "classic contest" is Labor vs Lib or Nat). My preferred outcome is a Labor-led minority, as a progressive and ambitious crossbench could achieve quite a lot, but the last couple of weeks of the wheels falling off Dutton's campaign has made me suspect a Labor majority is now the most likely outcome.

How will the Greens do?

The nationwide total for the Greens will be their best (>13.1%) or second-best (12.6–13.1%) share of the vote ever, but it won't be reflected in significant gains in parliament—indeed, they will probably go backwards or hold steady on lower house seats. If they go backwards in seats held, the media narrative will be "what went wrong?" even if their vote share is a record 14%.

My prediction is that the Greens easily retain a Senator in each state, and as for the House of Reps seats most prominent in their campaign:

Melbourne: easy Greens retain

Griffith: Greens retain

Wills: narrow Greens gain from Labor

Brisbane, Richmond, Ryan: a total mess with a very tight 3CP count, where they could conceivably improve their primary vote in each and still lose the lot; I think Greens lose either/both of Brisbane (to Labor if so) and Ryan (to Liberal if so), while in Richmond the Greens could squeak a win over Labor—or come first on primary votes and lose in the end!

Macnamara: easy Labor retain

If the Greens reach the 2CP in any other seat, I don't think they will be in contention to win.

(Disclaimer: as a former Wills voter, my prediction there is laced with traces of hopium, although I haven't predicted a Greens win there before. Based on a couple of recent visits back home to Brunswick, I suspect that if Samantha Ratnam does not win we will see a very stark divide from south to north. Bell St is the traditional barrier, although my belief Ratnam can win is from the Greens vote gradually working its way up the Upfield line plus Wills gaining some very Greens territory in a redistribution from the Division of Melbourne.)

Incumbent non-teal indies?

Russell Broadbent (ex-National) will lose Monash, Ian Goodenough (ex-Liberal) will lose Moore, and David Van (ex-Liberal) is running a thoroughly doomed ungrouped independent candidacy for the Senate in Victoria. All three, most obviously Van, are doing so to get the financial perks for a sitting MP who loses their seat, which a retiring MP does not receive. George Christensen did the same thing in 2022, running as One Nation's third candidate in Queensland.

How about the more serious contenders? Helen Haines (all but a teal), Rebekha Sharkie, and Andrew Wilkie will easily retain their seats. Hard to say about Fowler: Dai Le now has incumbency perks but will the seat revert to its Labor traditions now that the party has put up Tu Le, who should have always been the candidate in 2022? Or is the choice of Keneally still rankling the locals and Labor has let Tu Le have a go one electoral cycle too late? I'm going to say Dai Le holds on.

Andrew Gee (ex-National) quit his former party for very good reasons—his support for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament—and he faces a mighty challenge to retain Calare in a contest with endorsed Nationals candidate Sam Farraway, a former NSW state minister, and independent Kate Hook, who won 20.4% of the primary vote last time (40.32% 2CP) and has Climate 200 funding. It might be even tougher for Gee to win this seat than it was for him fling an Akubra hat so far that he won the Mumbil Black Wattle Fair's Chuck Akubra contest—twice! But he could win. It may well come down to 3CP. If Hook is third and Gee is in the top two, I say that he wins. If Gee is third, Hook has a shot if she's close to Farraway. If Hook and Gee both sit ahead of Farraway, who knows! I think Farraway definitely makes the top two on 3CP but beyond that... probably Farraway? but maybe Gee?

Incumbent teals?

Most incumbents will retain. Kylea Tink is not contesting the election after North Sydney was abolished in a redistribution. Amelia Hamer has done a Georgina Downer (real ones know) and blown a good opportunity for the Liberals to regain Kooyong and Monique Ryan will be returned. Zoe Daniel, Allegra Spender, and Zali Steggall will retain their seats—Daniel hopefully doesn't need to sweat it in Goldstein because the Liberals let profoundly unlikeable man Tim Wilson try to regain the seat he still has not accepted he lost in 2022. But I think Kate Chaney narrowly loses Curtin, and I have no read at all on Sophie Scamps in Mackellar for the reasons noted above about the mysteries of the Northern Beaches. She might romp in, she might get flogged, who can say what goes on north of the Spit Bridge.

Do any more teals/community independents become MPs?

I said in my review of the teals that Alex Dyson in Wannon, Nicolette Boele in Bradfield, and Caz Heise in Cowper will all be competitive. I think Dyson narrowly wins Wannon, ousting Liberal frontbencher Dan Tehan. Boele got some bad press for making a sexualised joke to a 19-year-old hair salon employee early in the campaign but this did not blow up into a high-profile media pile-on. I thought it might stall her campaign but now I suspect she has a real chance of winning, especially as Bradfield takes in some territory formerly in Kylea Tink's seat of North Sydney. Heise might have maxed out last time, but Cowper does like indies (it was Rob Oakeshott's seat, he of the 17-minute speech in 2010 that finally concluded with him giving Gillard and Labor the crucial support necessary to govern in minority). I will be surprised but not shocked if she wins.

Next door to Bradfield is Berowra, where Tina Brown has run a reasonably high-profile campaign, even winning support from Phillip and Heather Ruddick (the latter quitting the Liberals to work on her campaign), but I don't think she beats Julian Leeser (Liberal).

I'm bullish on Erchana Murray-Bartlett in McPherson. She has run a great campaign (literally). Although the Gold Coast has had federal MPs from the LNP and its predecessors since 1906, and just one state seat is currently in Labor hands (Gaven), Murray-Bartlett's cause is not hopeless. At state level, Gold Coast seats have been more volatile—I lived there as a teenager and witnessed Labor sweep most seats at the height of Peter Beattie's popularity in the 2000s—and I think Murray-Bartlett is pitching her campaign very well to voters who are not prepared to go Labor but are open to changing their vote from LNP. The seat is vacant, with the LNP hoping Leon Rebello can replace outgoing member Karen Andrews, so it's now or never for Murray-Bartlett. I'm going to say she might just get her nose across the finish line first on 2CP.

There's been chatter about Suzie Holt in Groom but for mine she has no chance. Kate Hulett is a rare teal competitive against an incumbent Labor MP rather than Liberal, but in the federal seat of Fremantle she won't get as close to victory as she did in the more compact state seat of the same name, where she very nearly entered the WA parliament last March (49.2% on 2CP). She might well regret renouncing her entitlement to a British passport the next time she lands at Heathrow.

Uh-oh, what about One Nation?

The Senate could be bad. They are a chance of taking a seat off the Coalition in all five mainland states. Malcolm Roberts will retain his seat in Queensland and I am worried we will see at least 2 others join him. The one thing we can count on, at least, is that most people struggle to work with Pauline and they might not be members of One Nation in a year or two: assuming Roberts does not quit the party before close of polls today, only 7/40 people ever elected for One Nation to date have served a full term from one election to the next. What's worrying is they might prove even worse out on their own, like Fraser Anning.

Beyond there, One Nation will finish in the 2CP for Hunter but Labor will retain the seat (where would we be without parliament's largest lad, Dan Repacholi, and his annual "Burgers of the Hunter" calendar?). One Nation could also get into the 2CP in Maranoa without remotely challenging the LNP's hold on the seat.

So, yeah, the Senate?

At most elections, most states split 3/3 left/right, and I think that will happen in all six this time. The territories and Tasmania are easiest to predict: NT will be 1 Labor, 1 Country Liberal; ACT will be 1 Labor, 1 David Pocock; Tasmania will be 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 Jacqui Lambie. Anything else would be a surprise. Elsewhere, Queensland will be 2 LNP, 2 Labor, 1 One Nation, 1 Green. In the remaining four states, the left side of the 3/3 split will be 2 Labor, 1 Green.

I can't confidently predict in which states the Liberals/Nationals will hold all 3 right-wing Senate seats and in which states One Nation will win the third. But One Nation is the only realistic contender of the panoply of weird right-wing micros. Clive Palmer's money can't buy him electoral love; his Trumpets play a discordant tune. The far-right vote will be scattered, and One Nation is the one consistent brand. They will do better than the other ratbags on primaries, and so stay in the race and have preferences from others flow to them. Rennick is no chance of retaining his Senate seat as he is in Queensland, One Nation's best state; even though Pauline isn't on the ballot, Malcolm Roberts should beat Rennick. WA and NSW have elected One Nation Senators before, there is chatter One Nation is doing well in SA (especially regionally) and they came close to the sixth seat in 2022, while in Victoria the question is whether the Liberals regain the third seat or if the final quota that Ralph Babet (UAP) won in 2022 will go to One Nation this time. I'm thinking WA reverts to 3 Liberals but that maybe ON sneaks it in at least two of NSW, SA, and VIC.

And last, the classic contests between Labor and the Coalition?

I want Dutton to lose Dickson but he won't. I suspect he holds on by about 51–53% 2PP. I predict Labor will pick up a couple of seats in Queensland though: Bonner and Leichhardt. And if Dutton leads the Liberals to a bad enough national result that he quits parliament after the election, then Labor's Ali French will finally get the seat she's been trying to win for multiple electoral cycles at a Dickson by-election.

Aston will revert to the Liberals but I suspect Labor can retain Bennelong and I'm struggling to predict Gilmore. Jerome Laxale's challenger in Bennelong, Scott Yung of the Liberals, has had some missteps, and in a tight contest those matter. I feel like Glmore should be fairly straightforwardly in the column of Labor losses, but Andrew Constance is the Liberal candidate. Despite being one of the best Liberal performers in the NSW state parliament in the 2010s, Constance has been unable to transfer to the federal parliament ever since his first abortive attempt in May 2020. I am convinced he smashed a mirror during the first covid lockdown and is enduring 7 years of bad luck because each of his attempts to get to Canberra, either through election or appointment to a Senate vacancy, has been truly cursed.

WA will be interesting. In 2022, it felt like Labor might govern in minority until the WA seats came in with a stonking swing to Labor. The tide will surely go back out, but as we saw at the state election, Labor remains very popular out west. Tangney is vulnerable but I've recently switched from thinking Labor loses it to thinking they retain it by a whisker. Bullwinkel is a new seat, notionally Labor, and it is a three-cornered contest with both Liberal and National. Labor will need to do very well on primary votes to win this but it contains state seats like Kalamunda, which Labor lost on a -14.7% swing, Forrestfield, which Labor retained 54.1% 2CP despite a whopping -24.3% swing, and extends into some of the safe Nationals state seat of Central Wheatbelt. I suspect it will be more like the state contests in Albany and Warren-Blackwood where Labor won the primary but could not win the seat and whoever finishes second at 3CP out of Liberal and National wins.

My smokey is that Labor wins Sturt in SA. It was once Christopher Pyne's seat and usually pretty safe, but the Liberals held it on just 50.45% 2PP at the last election. The party, moreover, is having an absolute shocker at the moment at state level there. Labor will fancy themselves. It might be tougher for Labor in Tasmania: I don't believe they can get past Bridget Archer, who has made a strong reputation for herself in the supposed "ejector seat" of Bass, and Rebecca White is up against it in Lyons in her attempt to transfer from state to federal parliament—but if any Labor candidate can hold Lyons for the party, it's probably her.

OK, this is way longer than I expected. This is a terrible amount of words to write if I prove to be shockingly wrong. Well, let's see what happens tonight.

[the-most-sublime-fool]

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