#Future of Population Data

[reasonsforhope]

"Eavesdropping on whale songs over the last six years is providing new information vital to answering questions about these giants of the ocean.

The number of whale songs detected is associated with shifting food sources, according to the California scientists—and the number of days humpbacks have been singing has nearly doubled.

When monitoring baleen whale songs in the Pacific Ocean, researchers found year-to-year variations correlated with changes in the availability of the species they forage on.

In vast oceans, monitoring populations of large marine animals can be a “major challenge” for ecologists, explained Dr. John Ryan, a biological oceanographer at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute in California (MBARI).

Their team deployed underwater microphones called hydrophones to study and track baleen whales, which communicate over long distances through sound.

“Surprisingly, the acoustic behavior of baleen whales provides insights about which species can better adapt to changing ocean conditions,” said Dr. Ryan, a lead author of the study.

They also monitored songs from blue, fin, and humpback whales off the West Coast of the U.S. to see what the song data could reveal about the health of their ecosystem.

The findings, published in the journal PLOS One, showed “large” year-to-year variations in whale song detection.

“The amount of humpback whale song continually increased, with their songs being detected on 34% of days at the beginning of the study and rising to 76% of days after six years,” said Dr. Ryan.

“These increases consistently tracked improved foraging conditions for humpback whales across all study years—large increases in krill abundance, followed by large increases in anchovy abundance.

“In contrast, blue and fin whale song rose primarily during the years of increasing krill abundance.

“This distinction of humpback whales is consistent with their ability to switch between dominant prey. An analysis of skin biopsy samples confirmed that changes had occurred in the whales’ diets.”

He explained that other factors, including the local abundance of whales, may have contributed to patterns in song detections observed in some years, but changes in foraging conditions were the most consistent factor.

“Overall, the study indicates that seasonal and annual changes in the amount of baleen whale song detected may mirror shifts in the local food web.”

WHALES ON THE COMEBACK TRAIL: • Gray Whale, Extinct for Centuries in Atlantic, Is Spotted in Cape Cod • Sighting of Many Blue Whales Around Seychelles is First in Decades – ‘Phenomenal’ • Majestic Sei Whales Reappear in Argentine Waters After Nearly a Century

“The results suggest that an understanding of the relationship between whale song detection and food availability may help researchers to interpret future hydrophone data, both for scientific research and whale management efforts”, which could better protect endangered species."

-via Good News Network, March 1, 2025

[probablyasocialecologist]

Analysis of data from dozens of foraging societies around the world shows that women hunt in at least 79% of these societies, opposing the widespread belief that men exclusively hunt and women exclusively gather. Abigail Anderson of Seattle Pacific University, US, and colleagues presented these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on June 28, 2023. A common belief holds that, among foraging populations, men have typically hunted animals while women gathered plant products for food. However, mounting archaeological evidence from across human history and prehistory is challenging this paradigm; for instance, women in many societies have been found buried alongside big-game hunting tools. Some researchers have suggested that women's role as hunters was confined to the past, with more recent foraging societies following the paradigm of men as hunters and women as gatherers. To investigate that possibility, Anderson and colleagues analyzed data from the past 100 years on 63 foraging societies around the world, including societies in North and South America, Africa, Australia, Asia, and the Oceanic region. They found that women hunt in 79% of the analyzed societies, regardless of their status as mothers. More than 70% of female hunting appears to be intentional—as opposed to opportunistic killing of animals encountered while performing other activities, and intentional hunting by women appears to target game of all sizes, most often large game. The analysis also revealed that women are actively involved in teaching hunting practices and that they often employ a greater variety of weapon choice and hunting strategies than men.

These findings suggest that, in many foraging societies, women are skilled hunters and play an instrumental role in the practice, adding to the evidence opposing long-held perceptions about gender roles in foraging societies. The authors note that these stereotypes have influenced previous archaeological studies, with, for instance, some researchers reluctant to interpret objects buried with women as hunting tools. They call for reevaluation of such evidence and caution against misapplying the idea of men as hunters and women as gatherers in future research. The authors add, "Evidence from around the world shows that women participate in subsistence hunting in the majority of cultures."

[montereybayaquarium]

For over 40 years, Monterey Bay Aquarium’s Sea Otter Program has helped southern sea otters bounce back—turning the tide for these critters! 🦦🌊

💙 Our pioneering surrogacy program pairs stranded pups with otter moms who teach them survival skills before they return to the wild. 🔬 Our scientists study otters’ lives, populations, behaviors, and health to support their recovery.

🏠 We partner with zoos and aquariums to find homes for non-releasable otters and share our expertise to boost the species’ survival.

🌎 More recently, our team has been monitoring the potential environmental effects of the Moss Landing battery fires on Elkhorn Slough, home to over 100 sea otters. By teaming up with conservation groups and agencies, we're collecting vital data to protect sea otters, their invertebrate prey, and the entire ecosystem. 

Together, we’re working for a future where sea otters thrive! 🦦💙

[furiouszealot]

UPDATE: As of 25/04/2025, 4chan is back up and running again. This post and its addendum will be kept as is, and will no longer be updated unless it goes back down again. If you were on /ghost/, it was a pleasure shitposting with you.

All right, I know no one gives a shit, but let me give you a recounting of the fall of 4chan from the perspective of someone who was there and has been lurking both 4chan and tumblr for a few years now.

I'll try to provide as much context as I can, but a lot of images were either lost or im too lazy to look for them in the +5000 reply thread in soyjak party.

Anyways, info below:

So, necessary context: a few years back, 4chan had a board called /qa/, which if you know little about the page, you may think every board is like /b/ or /pol/, which means a containment cess pool of grifters, (you) baiters, incels, and other deranged individuals. The thing is, /qa/ was somehow worse. The entire board was plagued and infested with soyjack edits, board culture was a nuclear disaster, anons were incredibly hostile in there, you know the drill, the big bad 4chan, but this time its actually true.

One day, moderation deleted /qa/, anons that posted there got mad, tried to raid other boards, failed, and then moved on to an altchan called soyjack party, which entire purpose you can guess from its name alone.

Apparently, the boards that allow pdf uploads (paper and origami, for example) didn't check if the uploaded file was actually a pdf file, so postscript files could be used to get access. This is as far as my understanding of web backend goes, sorry.

The hacker claims to have been working on this since 2021, and that he had access since about a year ago, but was recopilating data.

Now, what actually happened when the hack ocurred? Well, a banner of miku dancing with a song that played automatically was placed on top of every board, with the text "/QA/ IS BACK", this was possible because apparently no board was ever deleted, they were just hidden from the public.

A thread was then made on soyjack party, claiming authorship over the hack, and shit went south from there. Anons went en masse to talk there, a lot of weird discussion happened, the thread got the bump limit removed and got pinned, more than 5k posts were amassed on the first night alone. Keep in mind this happened at about 8 pm and most of the stuff went on through midnight.

So, the hacker leaked some things, first of all, the html files for the entirety of /j/ and the email address for every moderation member (important note: the pressence of .gov mails was disproven by the hacker themselves, so i guess there were never any feds), what is /j/? the board exclusive for jannies and moderators to discuss actions taken on the website regarding spam, ban evaders, threads spiraling out of control, etc. Among other things, some of the inner workings of 4chan got revealed, such as the web extension for jannies that allows them to do their job easily, how reports are handled, and other stuff. (Anecdotically, some guy got permabanned for calling anons jews or n-words over a 100 times in the same few threads)

Then, the source code got leaked. Important to say, the hacker removed the part of the source code related to the captcha, as to not facilitate bot attacks on the future, and all information related to email verification or 4chan pass users information also got removed, so all in all users are safe.

What was found on the sourcecode? That it was old, mostly. Most boards used code that hasn't been updated since about 2016, and /flash/ used the exact same code from when it was created back on 2011.

From there, desuarchive, a site that archives threads that die from bump limit, opened a dragon ball general on ghost mode, and thus began what later got called /ghost/, a solely text based thread with well over 20k replies as of right now, where a fraction of the 4chan population took refuge and is currently discussing random things with no particular topic. Kinda hard to read, but its comfy.

What does this mean for other sites? Not a lot, really. A lot of anons already crossposted in 4chan and tumblr already, and the ones that din't most likely wont come here. Some of the bigger/most dedicated groups, like /vt/, migrated to other boards. Various altchans are trying/tried to catch some of the flock of users that got lost, but i doubt it will get anywhere, since soyjak party for example was struggling with just the influx of users that came for the hack thread given its poor infrastructure. Kiwifarms saw a surge of new accounts apparently, but a lot of anons kinda loathe the idea of having to register, so theres that.

Smaller communities, such as generals that didn't get a lot of traffic, or boards on the slower end (say, /ic/, /lit/, etc) will probably vanish or disseminate until (or if) 4chan comes back up. I'd say give it a month, don't get your hopes up whether you want it to stay dead or want it to come back.

Given how many anons are staying on places like /ghost/ or other similar archives with the same ghost posting feature, i doubt it will be as bad as people are making it sound. Besides, the communities that are most likely to migrate to places like tumblr are either /co/, /vg/ or /lgbt/ refugees, which aren't THAT bad. Not every board was like the main cesspools (/b/, /r9k/, /pol/).

From now on, either 4chan comes back up in a few weeks (somewhere between 2 weeks to a month is expected), altchans capture the migrating anons, or a brand new imageboard rises from the ashes to become the new go-to site for old 4chan posters.

In conclusion, nothing ever happens, but also don't worry, chances are this won't affect tumblr in the slightest. If it does, you can cash in your "you were wrong" ticket whenever you want, i'll take the L.

As a footnote, keep in mind: NO users were compromised, if you ever posted there and are worried for your safety, physical or digital, you are safe.

Edit: Forgot to add, if you are a 4chan refugee, im BEGGING you to dm me and tell what board you were from and where are you migrating, if at all.

[tanadrin]

Can you explain in what what you think eugenics doesn't work? Does this basically boil down to skepticism about the accuracy of GWAS studies? My understanding is that academic consensus is "G probably exists, disentangling direct genetic inheritance vs genetic cultural inheritance is complicated but possible, we can identify a number of alleles which we're reasonably confident are directly causally involved in having a higher G factor"

when it comes to intelligence, its heritability, and its variation at the population level, my understanding of the science is:

highly adaptive traits don't, in fact, vary much at the genetic level between populations of a species because they are strongly selected for. in an environment where a trait is being strongly selected for, a population that failed to express that trait strongly will be rapidly outcompeted.

intelligence is probably the quintessential such trait for humans. we have sacrificed a great deal of other kinds of specialization in favor of our big brains. we spend an enormous amount of calories supporting those brains. tool use, the ability to plan for the future, the ability to navigate complex social situations and hierarchies in order to secure status, the ability to model the minds of others for the purposes of cooperation and deception means that we should expect intelligence to be strongly selected for for as long as our lineage has been social and tool-using, which is at least the last three million years or so.

so, at least as a matter of a priori assumptions, we should expect human populations not to vary greatly in their genetic predisposition to intelligence. it may nonetheless, but we'd need pretty strong evidence. i think i read this argument on PZ Myers' blog a million years ago, so credit where that's due.

complicating the picture is that we just don't have good evidence for how IQ does vary across populations, even before we get into the question of "how much of this variation is genetic and how much of it is not." the cross-national data on which a lot of IQ arguments have been based is really bad. and that would be assuming IQ tests are in fact good at capturing a notion of IQ that is independent of cultural context, which historically they're pretty bad at

this screed by nassim nicholas taleb (not a diss; AFAICT the guy only writes in screeds) makes a number of arguments, but one argument I find persuasive is that IQ is really only predictive of achievement in the sense that it does usefully discriminate between people with obvious intellectual disabilities and those without--but you do not actually need an IQ test for that sort of thing, any more than you need to use a height chart to figure out who is missing both their legs. in that sense, sure, IQ is predictive of a lot of things. but once you remove this group, the much-vaunted correlations between IQ and stuff like wealth just straight-up vanishes

heritability studies are a useful tool, but a tool which must be wielded carefully; they were developed for studying traits which were relatively easy to isolate in very specific populations, like a crop under study at an agricultural research site, and are more precarious when applied to, e.g., human populations

my understanding based on jonathan kaplan articles like this one is that twin studies are not actually that good at distinguishing heritable factors from environmental ones--they have serious limitations compared to heritability studies where you actually can rigorously control for environmental effects, like you can with plants or livestock.

as this post also points out, heritability studies also only examine heritability within groups, and are not really suited to examining large-scale population differences, *especially* in the realm of intelligence where there is a huge raft of confounding factors, and a lack of a really robust measurement tool.

(if we are worried about intelligence at the population level, it seems to me there are interventions we know are going to be effective and do not rely on deeply dubious scientific speculation, e.g., around nutrition and healthcare and serious wealth inequality and ofc education; and if what people actually want is to raise the average intelligence of the population rather than justify discrimination against minorities, then they might focus on those much more empirically grounded interventions. even if population differences in IQ are real and significant and point to big differences in intelligence, we know those things are worth a fair few IQ points. but most people who are or historically have been the biggest advocates for eugenics are, in my estimation, mostly interested in justifying discrimination.)

i think the claims/application of eugenics extend well beyond just intelligence, ftr. eugenics as an ideology is complex and historically pretty interesting, and many eugenicists have made much broader claims than just "population-level differences in intelligence exist due to genetic factors, and we should try to influence them with policy," but that is a useful point for them to fall back onto when pressed on those other claims. but i don't think even that claim is at all well-supported.

[dueling-jesters]

We should be worried for the fate of autistic people in the United States.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rfk-jr-autism-study-medical-records/

Large swaths of patient information, including records from pharmacies, health services, and private insurance are included in this "study" on autistic people.

The article also states that there will be a registry to track us.

Sounds like a massive breach of privacy.

The future is looking bleak.

I know this isn't my typical spy posting. I just haven't seen enough people talking about this.

To add insult to injury, if prescription information is linked to individuals, this puts autistic transgender people in an especially dangerous position.

I hate to be pessimistic, but we're screwed.

[transmutationisms]

@annevbonny yeah so first of all there's the overt framing issue that this whole idea rests on the premise that eliminating fatness is both possible and good, as though like. fat people haven't existed prior to the ~industrial revolution~ lol

more granularly this theory relies on misinterpreting the causes for the link between poverty and fatness (which is real---they are correlated) so that fatness can be configured as a failure of eating choices and urban design, meaning ofc that the 'solution' to this problem is more socially hygienic, monitored, controlled communities where everybody has been properly educated into the proper affective enjoyment of spinach and bike riding, and no one is fat anymore and the labour force lives for longer and generates more value for employers

in truth one of the biggest mediating factors in the poverty-body weight link is food insecurity, because intermittent access to food tends to result in periods of under-nourishment followed by periods of compensatory eating with corresponding weight regain/overshoot (this is typical of weight trajectories in anyone refeeding after a period of starvation or under-eating, for any reason). so this is all to say that the suggestion that fatness is caused by access to 'unhealthy foods' is not only off base but extremely harmful; food insecurity is rampant globally. what people need is consistent access to food, and more of it!

and [loud obvious disclaimer voice] although i absolutely agree that food justice means access to a variety of foods with a variety of nutrient profiles, access to any calories at all is always better than access to none or too few. which is to say, there aren't 'healthy' or 'unhealthy' foods in isolation (all foods can belong in a varied, sufficient diet) and this is a billion times more true when we are talking about people struggling to consume enough calories in the first place.

relatedly, proponents of the 'obesogenic environment' theory often invoke the idea of 'hyperpalatable foods' or 'food addiction'---different ways of saying that people 'overeat' 'junk food' because it's too tasty (often with the bonus techno-conspiricism of "they engineer it that way"). again it's this idea that the problem is people eating the 'wrong' foods, now because the foods themselves are exerting some inexorable chemical pull over them.

this is inane for multiple reasons including the failure to deal with access issues and the fact that people who routinely, reliably eat enough in non-restrictive patterns (between food insecurity and encouragement to deliberately diet/restrict, this is very few people) don't even tend to 'overeat' energy-dense demonised foods in the first place. ie, there is no need to proscribe or limit 'junk food' or 'fast food' or 'empty calories' or whatever nonsense euphemism; again the solution to nutritionally unbalanced diets is to guarantee everyone access to sufficient food and a variety of different foods (and to stop encouraging the sorts of moralising food taboos that make certain foods 'out of bounds' and therefore more likely to provoke a subjective sense of loss of control in the first place lol)

but tbc, when i say "the solution to nutritionally unbalanced diets"---because these certainly can and do exist, particularly (again) amongst people subjected to food insecurity---i am NOT saying "the solution to fatness" because fatness is not something that will ever be eliminated from the human population. and here again we circle back to one of the fundamental fears that animates the 'obesogenic environment' myth, which is that fatness is a medical threat to the race/nation/national future. which is of course blatant biopolitics and is relying on massive assumptions about the health status of fat and thin people that are simply not borne out in the data, and that misinterpret the relationship between fatness and illness (for example, the extent to which weight stigma prevents fat people from receiving medical care, or the role of 'metabolic syndrome' in causing weight gain, rather than the other way around).

people are fat for many reasons, including "their bodies just look like that"; fatness is neither a disease in itself nor inherently indicative of ill health, nor is it eradicable anyway (and fundamentally, while all people should have access to health-protective social and economic conditions, health is not something that people 'owe' to anyone else anyway)

the 'obesogenic environment' is a liberal technocratic fantasy---a world in which fatness is a problem of individual consumption and social engineering, and is to be eliminated by clever policy and personal responsibility. it assumes your health is 1) directly caused and indicated by your weight, 2) something you owe to the capitalist state as part of the bargain that is 'citizenship', and 3) something you can learn to control if only you are properly educated by the medical authorities on the rules of nutrition (and secondarily exercise) science. it's a factual misinterpretation of everything we know about weight, health, diet, and wealth, and it fundamentally serves as a defense of the existing economic order: the problem isn't that capitalism structurally does not provide sufficient access to resources for any but the capitalist class---no, we just need a nicer and more functional capitalism where labourers have a greengrocer in the neighbourhood, because this is a discourse incapable of grappling with the material realities of food production and consumption, and instead reliant on configuring them in terms of affectivity ('food addiction') or knowledge (the idea that food-insecure people need to be more educated about nutrition)

there are some additional aspects here obviously like the idea that exercising more would make people thin (similar issues to the food arguments, physical activity can be great but the reasons people do or don't do it are actually complex and related to things like work schedules and exercise doesn't guarantee thinness in the first place) or fearmongering about 'endocrine disruptors' (real, but are extremely ill-defined as a category and are often just a way to appeal to ideas of 'naturalness' and the vague yet pressing harms of 'chemicals', and which are also not shown to single-handedly 'cause' fatness, a normal state of existence for the human body) but this is most often an argument about food ime.

[dandelionsresilience]

Dandelion News - March 8-14

Like these weekly compilations? Tip me at $kaybarr1735 or check out my Dandelion Doodles!

1. Caribbean reef sharks rebound in Belize with shark fishers’ help

“Caribbean reef shark populations have rebounded beyond previous levels, more than tripling at both Turneffe and Lighthouse atolls[…. The recovery] arose from a remarkable synergy among shark fishers, marine scientists and management authorities[….]”

2. Landmark Ruling on Uncontacted Indigenous Peoples’ Rights Strikes at Oil Industry

“[T]he Ecuadorian government [must] ensure any future expansion or renewal of oil operations does not impact Indigenous peoples living in voluntary isolation. [… E]ffective measures must be adopted to prevent serious or irreversible damage, which in this case would be the contact of these isolated populations,” said the opinion[….]”

3. America's clean-energy industry is growing despite Trump's attacks. At least for now

“The buildout of big solar and battery plants is expected to hit an all-time high in 2025, accounting for 81% of new power generation[….] The industry overall has boomed thanks to falling technology costs, federal tax incentives and state renewable-energy mandates.”

4. Study says endangered Asian elephant population in Cambodia is more robust than previously thought

“A genetic study of Asian elephants […] reveals a larger and more robust population than previously thought, raising hopes the endangered species could slowly recover. […] “With sufficient suitable habitat remaining in the region, the population has the potential to grow if properly protected,” the report concludes.”

5. Scientists are engineering a sense of touch for people who are paralyzed

“[Engineers are] testing a system that can restore both movement and sensation in a paralyzed hand. [… A]fter more than a year of therapy and spinal stimulation, [… h]is increased strength and mobility allow him to do things like pet his dog. And when he does, he says, "I can feel a little bit of the fur."“

6. Florida is now a solar superpower. Here’s how it happened.

“In a first, Florida vaulted past California last year in terms of new utility-scale solar capacity plugged into its grid. It built 3 gigawatts of large-scale solar in 2024, making it second only to Texas. And in the residential solar sector, Florida continued its longtime leadership streak.”

7. Rare frog rediscovered after 130 years

“The researchers discovered two populations of the frog[….] "The rediscovery of A. vittatus allowed us to obtain, more than a century after its description, the first biological and ecological data on the species.” [… S]hedding light on where and how they live is the first step in protecting them.”

8. Community composting programs show promise in reducing household food waste

“The program [increased awareness and reduced household waste, and] also addressed common barriers to home composting, including pest concerns and technical challenges that had previously discouraged participants from composting independently.”

9. Pioneering Australian company marks new milestone on “mission” to upcycle end-of-life solar panels

“[…] SolarCrete – a pre-mixed concrete made using glass recovered from used solar panels – will form part of the feasibility study[….] A second stage would then focus on the extraction of high value materials[…] for re-use in PV and battery grade silicon, [… and] electrical appliances[….]”

10. Beavers Just Saved The Czech Government Big Bucks

“The aim was to build a dam to prevent sediment and acidic water from two nearby ponds from spilling over, but the project was delayed for years due to negotiations over land use[….] Not only did the industrious rodents complete the work faster than the humans had intended, they also doubled the size of the wetland area that was initially planned.”

March 1-7 news here | (all credit for images and written material can be found at the source linked; I don’t claim credit for anything but curating.)

[dj-of-the-coven]

To the leftist and anarchist Jews of Tumblr -- shalom!

My name is Rivkah (aka DJ) and I work at an anarchist bookstore collective. Since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war in '23, I've watched as the welcoming center for humanist resources that I worked so hard to maintain became more and more infested with antisemitism--because of and in spite of people's honest attempts to be good allies to the populations of the Gaza strip and West Bank. There's been antisemitism mixed in with everyone's humanitarian rhetoric since the beginning. I knew this, as every Jew did, and it wasn't easy remaining silent about it. I was doing so in order to let the voices of the most affected people speak first, expecting that once the shock wore off, we'd have more of a national discussion about how to care for Palestinians and Israelis as well as Jews in the diaspora, shifting the conversation towards a 2-state solution, more conscious efforts to de-radicalize antisemitic and islamophobic extremists, and peace between the multiple indigenous populations of the Levant. Well. Needless to say, this was rather optimistic thinking.

A few months ago, someone in the collective crossed a line. A book appeared on our sale table entitled "The Invention of the Jewish People" by Shlomo Sand. I doubt that I need to elaborate what this is to the population of Jumblr.

After this happened, I confronted the collective about this spike in antisemitic sentiment--the deliberate spreading of Khazar theory was simply too much for me to bear--and to my horror it was also revealed that we had no literature on contemporary Jewish issues aside from books on Palestine. I snapped. In the wake of this incident, I began a project of intensive research on the history of antisemitism and the ways it infiltrates leftist rhetoric and breaks up social justice movements. What I found left me surer than ever that something needs to be done about antisemitism in leftism and anarchy before it's too late; before more innocent people are killed by ignorance and misguided justice.

I'm taking a great risk by making this request on my main blog, but I'm doing this anyway, because I want to make it clear to people that wanting peace is not a "centrist" opinion. I am an anarchist. I am a punk. And I am a Jew who believes that a 2-state solution where everyone is safe is possible. We're not going to get a perfect socialist utopia out of the region any time soon, but two democracies are better than none.

Why should any of this matter to you? Well, I have something to ask of any parties that are interested.

I'm planning to give a presentation to the collective about antisemitism and how to recognize it within themselves and their activism, and to this end I've already done a massive amount of research, but nothing is complete without qualitative data. If you have anything to say to goyische leftists about what to change rhetorically in order to reach a more egalitarian future, I want to hear about it. Feel free to add your comments in the notes or in my asks. I will be accepting stories of antisemitism that have happened to you as well, if you're willing to share.

Thank you all for reading and I hope to hear from you soon!

Antisemites will be blocked on sight. Islamophobes will be blocked on sight.

[covid-safer-hotties]

Also preserved in our archive

A disgustingly economic discussion that is far more clear about the realities of covid than what our governments are telling us

“There is a huge delusion at the moment that COVID is over and when we talk about it, we say ‘when the pandemic happened’ but actually it is still happening,” he said. “So, insurance companies need to be very conscious of that and to be thinking ahead. Swiss Re has a powerful role across the market to make sure that this is being thought about. “In our view, there are a range of scenarios, but most of them anticipate a return to normality in five to 10 years, depending on your level of optimism. And we think that because of the other more fundamental movements happening around cancer, lifestyle risk and eventually Alzheimer's, to name the three biggest ones, that mortality improvements will also return over the longer term.”

By Mia Wallace

“COVID-19 is far from over.”

A recent Swiss Re report suggested potential excess mortality in the general population of up to 3% in the US and 2.5% in the UK by 2033 in a pessimistic scenario, highlighting the lingering impact of COVID-19 – both as a direct cause of death and as a contributor to cardiovascular mortality.

Discussing the report with Re-Insurance Business, Paul Murray (pictured), CEO of L&H Reinsurance at Swiss Re, outlined some of the key ageing and mortality trends shaping the life and health reinsurance market today. “Of course, we saw excess mortality when we were locked down and experiencing the pandemic but now we’ve returned to normal life, we think it’s over and it’s not. People are still getting ill with the COVID infection and they’re still dying.”

The debate for the market now is how long that trend is likely to continue, and whether its impact will fade over time – with Swiss Re’s recent report offering multiple scenarios into the reinsurance giant’s viewpoint on that question. Top of mind is understanding the key factors driving future mortality trends and changing life expectancy statistics – and how these influencing factors may change going forward.

What are the top trends driving future mortality trends? Pinpointing some of the key considerations driving future mortality trends, Murray underscored the need to look at historical data. “The headline for me is always that there has been a phenomenal period of mortality improvements, of life expectancy extending. This is probably one of the biggest social transformations that the human race has been through.

“One of the main drivers of that has been cardiovascular improvements. Smoking cessation helped a lot towards that in the 20th century and is continuing now as well. There’s also new technology that enables low-intervention cardiovascular surgery, like stents. We’ve shifted from a lot of surgery having to be open-heart and high-risk in an operating theatre to in-and-out in a day with injected stents. It has been completely transformational.”

Where do medical advances go next? The ”plumbing” of the human body and the way it’s protected and healed by modern medicine has been largely optimised, he said, but now some of the benefits of that is starting to level off. Looking to the future, he sees that there is still the potential for some further improvements as a factor driving increased life expectancy, particularly amid improving access to information and education about healthy living choices – and improving intervention techniques.

“When we look forward, I anticipate the area where we have the best chance of improvements is on the cancer side,” he said. “Comparatively to cardiovascular risk, improvements to cancer treatments have been relatively low in the past. Of course, it’s very complex as 'cancer' is a bucket term which combines 200-plus types, but we are seeing some very promising technologies emerging here that will help address that.

“Take mRNA vaccines, for instance, which are not new but became very prominent in the pandemic, specifically as it helped us develop vaccines very quickly. mRNA capabilities, combined with immunotherapy, are currently in trials, and showing very significant improvements in outcomes for cancer patients in specific causes. And we've only really started scratching the surface of that. Looking 10-to-30 years out, which is the duration we have to think about as life insurers, we think that’s a prominent contributor to future improvement.”

Alzheimer's is another pressing area for consideration, he said, as, with people generally living longer, this is becoming a much more significant risk. Due to a myriad of reasons, more people than ever are living with Alzheimer’s today and society is being increasingly challenged to deal with it and to support those living with the disease. “Again, improvements in dealing with Alzheimer's historically have not been that great, and I think this is one area where there's the potential for a meaningful breakthrough, and we're starting to see some signs of that in scientific research.”

Understanding the impact of lifestyle factors on future mortality trends An interesting element shaping discourse in the life and health reinsurance market is the question of the impact of lifestyle factors on future mortality trends. Murray noted that if you characterize overall mortality rates into lifestyle or non-communicable diseases, between 30-40% of mortality is driven by lifestyle choices – including such factors as what you eat, whether you smoke, whether you exercise, how much sugar you eat, and how you manage your stress.

The insured population are typically quite happy to engage with that, he said, and Swiss Re is seeing improvement on those metrics, but there remain large swathes of the overall population who don’t engage in that conversation. As more data emerges over time, he believes the market will start to see stronger connections between activity and outcomes which, in turn, will help it to drive better results.

“An interesting area here is diabetes and Swiss Re is taking a leadership position on this globally,” he said. “We regularly engage with policymakers around the world – with doctors and thinkers on nutrition and food policy in particular – to [highlight] how your diet has a big impact on your health, but also to assess whether the current advice is appropriate for the future.

“Obesity and diabetes continue to increase. That debate has a long way to go, but if it continues to evolve positively, it will have a positive impact on mortality.”

Poor metabolic health drives obesity and diabetes, which are offsetting previous advances made by treating cardiovascular diseases and smoking cessation. The emergence of GLP-1/GIP weight loss injectables has shown early promise in reducing weight and improving baseline clinical risk factors, when combined with long-term lifestyle alterations. Although long-term data doesn’t yet exist on the impact of GLP-1 drugs, in the short term these medications are showing positive results in reducing all-causes, and specifically cardiovascular mortality. In addition, the drugs appear to positively affect a range of other conditions such as cancer, liver and kidney diseases, and even neurodegenerative diseases.

When will excess mortality return to pre-pandemic levels? Underpinning the broader conversation is the big question on the minds of many across the life and health reinsurance market – when, or if, excess mortality will return to pre-pandemic levels. Swiss Re’s recent paper posited both a pessimistic and an optimistic scenario because its role is not to say what will happen, but rather to encourage people to think about the tail risk of the COVID crisis and how it might play out.

“There is a huge delusion at the moment that COVID is over and when we talk about it, we say ‘when the pandemic happened’ but actually it is still happening,” he said. “So, insurance companies need to be very conscious of that and to be thinking ahead. Swiss Re has a powerful role across the market to make sure that this is being thought about.

“In our view, there are a range of scenarios, but most of them anticipate a return to normality in five to 10 years, depending on your level of optimism. And we think that because of the other more fundamental movements happening around cancer, lifestyle risk and eventually Alzheimer's, to name the three biggest ones, that mortality improvements will also return over the longer term.”

Study link: www.swissre.com/institute/research/topics-and-risk-dialogues/health-and-longevity/covid-19-pandemic-synonymous-excess-mortality.html

[reasonsforhope]

"For over a decade, the Yosemite toad has been recognized as a federally threatened species, after experiencing a 50% population decline during the Rim Fire of 2013.

The wildfire, which encompassed a mass of land near Yosemite National Park, made the amphibian species especially vulnerable in its home habitat. 

Native to the Sierra Nevada, the toads play a key role in the area’s ecosystem — and conservationists stepped in to secure their future.

In 2017, the San Francisco Zoo’s conservation team began working with the National Park Service, Yosemite Conservancy, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, California Department of Fish & Wildlife, and the U.S. Geological Survey. 

The goal of all of these stakeholders? To raise their own Yosemite toads, re-establishing a self-sustaining population in the wild. 

“Over the past several years, SF Zoo’s conservation team has been busily raising hundreds of these small but significant amphibians from tadpole stage, a species found only in the Sierra Nevada, for the purpose of reintroducing them to an area of Yosemite National Park where it was last seen 11 years ago,” the zoo shared on social media. 

By 2022, a group of toads were deemed ready for release — and at the end of June of this year [2024], 118 toads were flown via helicopter back to their habitat.

“It’s the first time anyone has ever raised this species in captivity and released them to the wild,” Rochelle Stiles, field conservation manager at the San Francisco Zoo, told SFGATE. “It’s just incredible. It makes what we do at the zoo every day worthwhile.”

Over the past two years, these toads were fed a diet of crickets and vitamin supplements and were examined individually to ensure they were ready for wildlife release.

Zoo team members inserted a microchip into each toad to identify and monitor its health. In addition, 30 of the toads were equipped with radio transmitters, allowing their movements to be tracked using a radio receiver and antenna.

The project doesn’t end with this single wildlife release; it’s slated to take place over the next five years, as conservationists continue to collect data about the toads’ breeding conditions and survivability in an ever-changing climate. They will also continue to raise future toad groups at the zoo’s wellness and conservation center...

While the future of the Yosemite toad is still up in the air — and the uncertainty of climate change makes this a particularly audacious leap of faith — the reintroduction of these amphibians could have positive ripple effects for all of Yosemite.

Their re-entry could restore the population balance of invertebrates and small vertebrates that the toads consume, as well as balance the food web, serving as prey for snakes, birds, and other local predators.

“Zoo-reared toads can restore historic populations,” Nancy Chan, director of communications at the San Francisco Zoo, told SFGATE. 

Stiles continued: “This is our backyard, our home, and we want to bring native species back to where they belong.”

-via GoodGoodGood, July 11, 2024

[blueteller]

Do you know how smart Cale actually is? Like- what extent his intelligence can reach?

That's an interesting question! Let's take a look.

From what I know of IQ scores, anything above 120 puts you in top 10% of the population. So I easily see Kim Rok Soo!Cale belonging in that category; of >120 IQ. However, IQ had always felt a little vague to me. It's nice to have a number to put on a scale and all, but what does it actually mean in reality? Let's try this from a different angle.

Gardner's Multiple Intelligences model of divides talent into eight categories, plus one additional one:

Visual-spatial

Linguistic-verbal

Logical-mathematical

Body-kinesthetic

Musical

Interpersonal

Intrapersonal

Naturalistic

Existential

Why not try to measure him up against each one, as no person is actually intelligent in every way and not even a fictional character can excel in all of them (unless they're a Mary Sue or something lol).

Visual and spatial judgment stands for easy reading, writing, puzzles solving, recognizing patterns and analyzing charts well. I think Cale is definitely a pro in this category; he does loves reading and he's fantastic at analyzing data.

Linguistic-verbal is for remember written and spoken information, debates, giving persuasive speeches, ability to explain things and skilled at verbal humor. And while I constantly make fun of Cale for not being able to explain himself, he IS good at using the "glib tongue" and being persuasive, so I think he is very skilled in this category as well.

Logical-mathematical means having excellent problem-solving skills, the ability to come up with abstract ideas and conduct scientific experiments, as well as computing complex issues. Cale is an incredible strategist able to change his plans in an instant, so he is definitely a genius in this field.

Bodily-Kinesthetic Intelligence is a fun one, because I think it's the hardest one to judge, considering that he literally changed bodies. It of course stands for sports, dancing, craftmanship, physical coordination, and remembering better by practice rather than learning theory. Cale... does not like that. However, it doesn't mean he's BAD at it. If he was a genius in this field, however, I believe he would like it a bit more. Thus – I suspect he was average. In the past he was forced to exercise for the sake of survival, but once he was given the option of taking it easy, he quit instantly. He is capable, but does not have any particular predisposition for it.

Musical Intelligence drives me nuts, because we literally do not know, and I dearly wish I did. There was not a single mention of it in the whole series. As much as I want to believe in a cool headcanon of KRS being an unrealized musical genius... I think he was probably average or below average in this.

Interpersonal Intelligence stands for communication, conflict-solving, perception and the ability to forge connections with others. And while you might have some doubts about Cale, I say he IS a total pro in this. Those are all leadership skills, and Cale is one HELL of a great leader.

However...

Intrapersonal Intelligence is where Cale is severely lacking. It could be partially due to trauma, but I think at least some of it comes through his natural personality. It stands for introspection, self-reflection, the ability to understand one's motivation and general self-awareness; and that is Cale's biggest weakness, one that might actually cost him his slacker life dream in the end, due to all the misunderstandings he causes.

The last two, Naturalistic and Existential Intelligence types, are also not really Cale's forte. The first is for things like botany, biology, and zoology, paired with enjoyment of camping and hiking – none of which Cale actually does for pleasure, only because he has to. And yeah, farming is in that category too, but it's not like Cale is actually a real farmer just yet. And the second is for stuff like philosophy, considering how current actions influence future outcomes, the ability to see situations from an outside perspective and reflections into the meaning of life and death – and Cale is REALLY not interested in this type of self reflection.

Which leaves Cale with 4 types of intelligence he excels at, 2 which he is REALLY BAD at, 1 where he's below average and 1 he's probably average, with 1 left completely unknown.

Does this make Cale a genius? Pretty much, yes. Does it also make him stupid in very specific ways? VERY MUCH, YES.

[probablyasocialecologist]

In January 2019, world-renowned food and nutrition experts published a groundbreaking study. The culmination of two years’ work by 37 authors, the EAT-Lancet report set out to answer the question: how can we feed the world’s growing population without causing catastrophic climate breakdown? The publication was high profile. Launched in the prestigious peer-reviewed Lancet medical journal, the report came out in 12 languages, and a flagship event at the World Health Organisation (WHO) in Geneva, Switzerland was planned for March. But in the days leading up to the launch, the WHO pulled out. The health agency’s withdrawal followed a massive online backlash, which had concentrated on one of the report’s recommendations: to cut global red meat consumption by 50 percent.  New evidence seen by DeSmog suggests this surge of outrage against the report was stoked by a PR firm that represents the meat and dairy sector.  A document seen by DeSmog appears to show the results of a campaign by the consultancy Red Flag, which catalogues the scale of the backlash to the report.  The document indicates that Red Flag briefed journalists, think tanks, and social media influencers to frame the peer-reviewed research as “radical”, “out of touch” and “hypocritical”. It highlights that negative coverage outnumbered neutral or positive stories, with thousands of critical posts shared on X about the research, alongside more than 500 negative articles. “Red Flag turned EAT-Lancet into a culture war issue,” Jennifer Jacquet, professor of environmental science and policy at the University of Miami, and expert in lobbying, told DeSmog. “Instead of having nuanced conversations about the data, Red Flag takes us back to mud slinging.” “This document is a portrait of what we’re up against – as people who care about the truth, about climate change, and about the future,” she said.

10 April 2025

[typhlonectes]

GOOD NEWS:

Enduring the Earthquake: Rediscovery of the Critically Endangered Mesilau Stream Toad, Ansonia guibei Inger, 1966 (Anura, Bufonidae) and its conservation implications

EVAN S.H. QUAH, PAUL YAMBUN IMBUN, SZE HUEI YEK

Abstract

The Mesilau Stream Toad (Ansonia guibei) is a species of bufonid endemic to Sabah, Borneo, and restricted to a single mountainous location above 1600m in elevation. The species is only known from the type locality, the Mesilau watershed on Mount Kinabalu. An earthquake in 2015 resulted in massive landslides, causing extensive damage to the species’ habitat at Mesilau. This event was expected to have caused significant population declines of at least 80% or even the potential extinction of the species. A survey in 2017 at Mesilau failed to locate any individuals, which resulted in it being listed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN. Surveys in late 2023 to reassess the status of the species and its habitat resulted in the rediscovery of a single subadult specimen of A. guibei. Tadpoles of the species were recorded in the main Mesilau River and one additional tributary, which indicates the species survives and is breeding. Studies are ongoing to collect more ecological data on the species and determine its current distribution. The data gathered will be used to construct a robust conservation plan for the species. Nevertheless, these preliminary observations bode well for the future of the species as it demonstrates that it is resilient and capable of recovering from the damages caused by the earthquake.

Read the paper here:

Enduring the Earthquake: Rediscovery of the Critically Endangered Mesilau Stream Toad, Ansonia guibei Inger, 1966 (Anura, Bufonidae) and its conservation implications | Zootaxa (mapress.com)

[lunawagner]

Study Results (2/2)

For the previous post---> Click

Before beginning, let me clear something: We've compared groups as having lower or higher means related to each other, but that doesn't mean their means are high or low in general, that is, compared to the general population. For instance, there were Caleb mains who said they scored high in agreeableness and consciousness, so surprised by "low results," but actually, all groups have average or high means in these aspects, as you can see in numbers. They are lower or higher just compared to other groups, not in itself~~ As I said earlier, we all had low to average extraversion, average conscientiousness, high openness to experience, neuroticism, and agreeableness

For the future: If we happen to get a 6th LI, I might do this again with the HEXACO model or Szondi test lol

Play Time and Love Interest Choice Players who stated that they've been playing the game for 6-9 months(time 3 in table) showed a significant preference for Sylus. It matches with Sylus' release date, so I think the data shows those who started the game just because of Sylus (expected 16%, observed 26%).

Also, players who have been playing for less than 3 months(time 1 in table) preferred Caleb over others. Likewise, it's probably related to his release and the people who came for him. (expected 19%, observed 27%)

The most interesting one is that, compared to others, people who have been playing for more than 12 months(time 5 in table) significantly preferred Xavier as their primary love interest (expected 33%, observed 40%). However, it might be because of the community we get the data from and the fandom involvement of long-term players.

Alpha and Beta Factors

Alpha Factor= Agreeableness+Conscientousness+Stability(reverse of neuroticism)

Beta Factor: Extraversion+Openness to experience

The group didn't have a significant difference in terms of Beta Factor. For Alpha Factor, Caleb mains(M=191, SD=27) had statistically significant lower scores compared to Sylus(M=198, SD=25), Xavier(M=198, SD=27) and Zayne mains(M=200, SD=27).

Morality

It’s similar to the emotionality results, and honestly, I’m skeptical that the differences in both are due to pure chance, except for those between Zayne and Caleb mains. (Yeah, I know I laughed about it in the previous post, but let’s be serious for a moment). So, I’m reporting this just for the sake of reporting.

Other little things:

People who answered that they've been diagnosed with a mental illness had higher neuroticism and openness to experience scores. Neuroticism being high, yk, the most natural thing, but openness to experience?? Then it came to me: it's ADHD girlies. Many of the previous studies didn't find an association between openness to experience and mental disorders, yet some studies suggest that openness to experience is related to ADHD and neurodivergence.

People who said they are spiritual but not religious and agnostic had higher openness to experience means compared to other groups. (related research: Being agnostic, not atheist: Personality, cognitive, and ideological differences / Being Spiritual but Not Religious)

Poc participants reported less mental disorder diagnosis compared to non-poc participants. (protective power of collectivism and community support or differences in accessibility to mental healthcare)

Play time and knowledge of the story content were positively correlated. Obvious outcome, but good to check for participant honesty

99% of participants were females assigned at birth. 87% of participants preferred she/her as their pronouns. 64% of participants were aged between 18-24, and 31% were between 25-34

84% of participants were from the middle class.

65% of participants were people of color (I love you <3)

In terms of religion, percentages were balanced and between 10%-20% for Christians, Muslims, SBNRs, Agnostics, and Atheists. Other religious affiliations had fewer participants.

Thanks to everyone for participating!

Tag List: @xavieslittlestar @m00nchildwrites @dadddybangtan @gingers-random-junk @cloudyasteria @eoe-1379 @kwtdrn @punksausages @satorusfrontallobesilverhair @xanxann01 @dandellien @auraficial @fictionalmenlover5 @bundle-of-sunlight @starryfilled @cupcakefactory @rayamalaya @mandapanda16 @nouerzzz @jonggunkitten @fckkntired @dreamienebula @tiffyelefano @bbnique @maybeyougotmewrong @starrychxn @situationsheep @maimaily @irlsammy @meowumis @piranha-teeth @svnflowery @soapsoftheworld

[pawborough]

January Check In

Hello, all!

Happy update day, catfolk! We apologize for the late update, but we wanted to share the Beta dates with you in this update. We took extra time to ensure the dates were accurate without risking something not being ready in time or causing burnout for our team. We’ve done quite a bit of internal assessment on the pros and cons of letting ~2,000+ people into the game. 

Our most pressing thought was how to reconcile needing to continue working on key features while getting valuable feedback and play data on all that we already have. There was a lot to consider, in reputation, timeline, and team morale. We did not want to give the wrong impression that we felt anywhere close to a done game, but we have a lot of high fidelity mechanics and playability to share which need high population testing regardless. We’ve finally settled on rolling our sleeves up and opening to testers. At the start, we’ll provide a comprehensive breakdown of everything we’re planning to add over the months of the test, and continue our monthly check-ins on our progress. We’re ready to grind, and we hope you are too! And in many ways, it will be much nicer to get the comprehensive mass testing whenever we have something new to roll out!

We hope you will all agree that this update was worth the wait, as we have exciting news to share with you today, along with our most exciting news yet! :)

Accessory Progress

We are proud to announce that we have 47 unique accessories, altogether with 564 color variations. 

We have just about reached the edge of our odyssey in the first production run of accessories. After 8 months of practice and training for our fledgling team, we’ve improved immensely at our pipeline. What has previously taken us months now takes a matter of weeks. We have one more backer accessory to develop, and any additions in the near future will be small, simplistic items in comparison to our full sets, but I’m very proud of the team for how far we’ve come, and the marvel of quality they produce in good time.

This month’s new progress includes:

Frog Friends

Illustration by Remmie, sponsored by Hag

Protogear Recolors

Recolors by Emma

New decor

We’ve also been busy with decors. 

Argh, matey! 

Macaws by Jersopod, cannon, barrel and newspaper stack by Giulia and Remmie

In addition, style compliant sketches of the original rose decor!

Sketches by Remmie

Archetypes

We’re here to introduce a very exciting mechanic that has been in the works since our initial overhaul. It’s one of my personal favorite concepts, and the primary motivation behind how we’ve structured the cat design system.

Introducing… cat archetypes!

Archetypes are a specific combination of traits which, when fulfilled, mark the cat’s profile with a badge and reward the user as an achievement fulfillment. (If the cat’s traits are changed, the badge will be removed. Cats may fulfill multiple Archetypes simultaneously.)

For example, this badge means the cat fulfills the Ruby archetype, a badge which requires the cat to have the color Ruby in all slots.

Examples of the Ruby archetype include:

To give examples of the specificity, other Archetypes include for example “Leopard,” which must have the following to comply:

A Yellow range Leopard overcoat

Light Greyscale or Light Yellow undercoat

Yellow or Greyscale Claws

None for the second accent

Here are some Leopards!

Owning these cats will give the user rewards, sometimes completely custom to the Archetype. 

What we hope to achieve with this system is a greater incentive to think creatively within the restrictions of our cat builder, and to reward our players for intentioned play in collecting, breeding, and designing a variety of cats. After all, it is the core of the game!

And with each new addition of colors or patterns, we’ll release an onslaught of new Archetypes! We plan to introduce a healthy amount of them, some easy to get, and some harder depending on genetic obtainability and the obtainment method.

This system is already up and running on our servers, and is in its infancy. We’ll get a lot of data from testing it out!

Originally, this system was on the backburner while we focused on bigger picture mechanics, but we’ve fast tracked it so we can bolster and better encourage casual play while the Guild system is still in its preliminary beta state. 

Pelt System

Perhaps the feature we are most excited to see in use and tested is the Pelt System, which we briefly introduced in the 2024 November Check In. There is a frankly insane amount of functionality behind this feature, which includes autonomous user decision and interaction every step of the way. 

First, we were able to implement dynamic layering. This means that Unclipped (top layer) pelts can actually sport layers which are placed behind the cat automatically. Valuable uses for this feature include the inside of sleeves, backs of hoods, and items which you would otherwise always want to go behind anything it’s stacked above.

Users can view their pelts already submitted, see their submission progress, choose to submit more to the pelt, choose to print their pelt themselves, choose to list pelts for buyers to print on demand, and view their pelts on any cat.

There is also a draft system which allows users to store information they aren’t ready to submit yet. 

Users can list pelts as a print-on-demand resource, and are able to control how many copies they will allow to be printed. 

All prints will require a tax which will be dependent on the coverage %, calculated based on the amount of pixels that cover the canvas. This means that small pelts, like a hat or a monocle, will take only a small tax!

AND we have a rudimentary tagging system going as we experiment with this feature! Big news! Once we iron out the kinks, we’ll be able to roll out user filtering and tagging of other content, such as cats or forum posts.

And drumroll please…

As teased at the beginning of this update, we are overjoyed to announce the Closed Beta dates!  Early access launches on February 3rd, with the regular Closed Beta starting on February 6th!

During the Closed Beta, you’ll have the chance to experience many new and polished gameplay features, exciting customization options, and the now refined economy! We encourage all testers to not only find any potential bugs and ui improvements, but also to provide feedback and suggestions on all of our game features and our economy!

All 253 Early Beta, 1940 Beta and Kickstarter codes have been generated, and we will begin sending them out shortly over the next day.

In the coming week, we’ll put out writings on our expectations early on and the features roadmap that we’re currently staring at. We can’t wait to see you all in Kotemara soon!

To summarize: We shared decors, Protogear recoloring, Frog Friends, pelt system showcase, archetypes and closed Beta dates.

What to expect next month: Further asset and development updates. Check-ins for how closed Beta will be going.