#Feel free to make your own predictions on the blank version!!!

[kooki914]

I'm beginning to go through severe Deltarune withdrawal, so I made this handy dandy template everyone can use to make predictions! Both for things they WANT to see, as well as things they DON'T want to see (if there's any unpopular opinions you have about prev chapters, this is the place to air it out LMAOO)

I included the blank image above, but if you're working in something like paint it might help to instead get the version with a background, or if you prefer, I have layered versions for Photoshop and Paint dot net as well!

If you use this template, feel free to @ me here on tumblr so I can see your own cards, and please don't erase my name from the title or anything like that, just add your own where the "Y/N" at the bottom is. Oh, and I made custom stamps for using the bingo when the time inevitably comes.

Happy bingo making!

[philosofungi]

the anxiety of not knowing "the real you"

anoscetia.

from an-, not + Latin nosce te ipsum, "Know thyself." pronounced "an-oh-see-sha" or "an-oh-say-tyah".

everyone around you seems to have such a vibrant personality. it shines through vividly in everything from the shoes they wear, to the groceries they put in their cart, to the precise wording of a text wishing you a happy birthday. you'd think it would all seem generic, but somehow every detail is quintessentially them.

how strange, then, that your own experience doesn't seem to be tinted with any particular vibe. mostly you feel you do what you have to do, with little opportunity for embellishment. and when there is free reign to improvise, you find yourself feeding off other people's moods, matching their tones and energies, just trying to get along or make it through the day. inside your head, you imagine yourself as a shade of neutral gray that just happens to reflect whatever strong colors are nearby.

of course, your family and friends would insist you're anything but neutral, painting you with the same broad brush you use to pain them: you're a sunny yellow, they might say, or a chill blue, a fiery red, an innocent pink, an edgy black. they're not necessarily wrong; you do notice a certain quality threaded through your personality, and often find yourself playing into it, because it's a lot easier to be cheerful or crabby or crazy or boring if everyone already thinks of you that way. the trouble is, each of them only ever sees you in isolated contexts, inhabiting certain roles at certain times. if anyone tried to shadow you through an entire week, they'd be astonished to see you as a serious professional, a sexual being, a spiritual person, a story-time goofball, a nervous wreck, or the life of the party. each of their impressions may be accurate in the moment, but each reflects only a narrow band of the full spectrum of you.

meanwhile, you shadow yourself twenty-four hours a day, in a variety of different situations. in what context are you most like yourself? are you more or less authentic when you lose yourself in your work, pour your heart out to a friend, or are alone, just trying to clear your mind? even then, you know firsthand how messy your moods can be, how scattered and contradictory your thought process, how many arbitrary urges you could obey at any given time. whenever you stumble on a new situation, it's hard to predict which version of you is going to emerge, or which opinion is going to tumble out from the gumball machine in your head—knowing it'll carry the sheen of truth, as if all your other thoughts didn't exist.

it makes you wish you could restore your self-image back to its essence. painstakingly washing away the remnants of all the times you tried to be someone you're not. cleaning up areas where people tried to paint over you or ripped away qualities they didn't like. stripping down your identity, layer by layer, through all your habits and distractions and cultural programming, so you can finally reveal your true colors for all to see. but the more you look into who you are in isolation, the more your identity dissolves into a noise of random impulses—dust on a blank canvas.

maybe there is no single self to speak of. maybe you're a shifting collage of many different personas, each as authentic as the next. a kaleidoscope of ever-moving fragments, reflecting a thousand little impressions of the world around you, with flashes of different moods and vibrant clusters of quirks—but no broader pattern.

maybe you have no true colors. you're not some finished painting, signed and sealed in varnish. if there is a "real you", surely it's the mess of paint on the palette: colors swirling and mixing and playing together, perpetually unfinished, searching and striving to make something new.

—excerpt from "the dictionary of obscure sorrows"

[vyladromeave]

dfnsmbHJDSFG I MADE AN MCD BINGO FOR THE REWRITE EPISODE COMING SOON. 

blank copy (in case you want to make your own! please give credit if you do.) and zoomed in version to see the text easier also included. text below cut, in case you have trouble reading it.

HD (high definition, non pixel-y) skins.

Character(s) get excluded.

We get to watch the Aphmau-summoning sequence. (Where “Irene” is summoned from her dimension and becomes Aphmau!)

Old music returns.

Someone says F*CK. (Or curses.)

Characters that should not be there yet appear. (Aaron, KC, Laurance, Zane, etc.)

The voices still sound like Mystreet. (Aphmau is too high-pitched, Garroth sounds like nails on a chalkboard, etc.)

New lore is mentioned, or old lore is confirmed.

The video is in both 1st and 3rd person POV. (Like Void Paradox!)

Someone is wildly out of character. (This aint Mystreet!)

Voice Actors (VAs) for the characters who don’t have voices yet! (Like Dale, Molly, and other older villagers.)

New skins that make less sense than they did before.

CHAOS CHAOS CHAOS. (Free space.)

Hints of Garmau...

Foreshadowing for future Minecraft Diaries (MCD) episodes. (That will probably never come.)

Void or Void Burn makes an appearance. 

Aphmau becomes the lord by the end of the episode.

New skins that make more sense than they did before.

Shadowknights show up, act Mysterious™.

We get to see the old lord’s house again.

We see scenes that happen outside of Phoenix Drop.

The Rewrite Video is near or over 30 minutes.

The episode feels like the first few Minecraft Diaries episodes slammed into one.

References to stuff only older fans will get.

Magic bullsh*t happens.

(some text is censored so that you can still find it when searching for it. Tumblr will censor it otherwise fmnsdbfsdgj)

[starshipsofstarlord]

Drummer Boy

sebastian stan x reader

masterlist

Summary; To say you are intrigued when Seb returns home from set with more than faux tattoos is certainly a surprise, but not an unwelcome one

Warnings; smut, implied smut, object insertion, oral, squirting, choking, swearing

divider by @firefly-graphics

But you expected that, he had adorned that change to his appearance for the last couple of months now. You did not predict however, that he would enter the living space, the dark charcoal grey walls being a perfect gradient of background for his entry, for the pitch artwork that stained his skin, more specifically, the usually blank canvas of his arms.

But you expected that, he had adorned that change to his appearance for the last couple of months now. You did not predict however, that he would enter the living space, the dark charcoal grey walls being a perfect gradient of background for his entry, for the pitch artwork that stained his skin, more specifically, the usually blank canvas of his arms.

To aid the exterior he was exhibiting, there was a drumstick being twirled in the keyboard of his talented fingers, as though he were showing off his latest trick. It was clear he idly thought nothing of it as he walked towards you, and leant down, pressing a sweet and tender kiss upon your partially agape lips, trapping the escaping air into your mouth, instead of allowing it to run free out of shock.

“I- fuck, you look good.” Biting your lip, you nudged his nose with your own, as your heavy lidded eyes gazed adoringly up at him, gouging his reaction of suddenly widened eyes. Once more he kissed you, pausing your drooling over him for a second. It was almost impossible to not clamber over the back of the sofa, and crawl up into his arms. There was a lot of restraint involved not to.

“That was an unexpected greeting, though I’m glad you like the temporary change babydoll.” He brushed his knuckles over your temple, as he began to toy with the drumstick with the opposing. The way he found a perfect balance between that and his digits was beautiful, it was practically art in motion. It drew out an oil slick in your panties, as you hummed to yourself, earning a tilt of his puppy dog head.

“Umm.” Coughing, you shook your head, flabbergasted at how shining clear you were making your attraction to this version of Seb was. No matter how he appeared, he was perfect in your eyes, but the vibrancy of his soul was the thing that pulled you in like a magnet to a pole the most. And with this vibe going on, well there was certainly a new demeanour to him as he delved into the angles of the role. “Dinner’s in the fridge.”

In thought, Sebastian tapped the tip of the nude wood drumstick against his lips, the veins in his arms slightly straining against the faux ink work, as he trained his cerulean eyes down on you. He was making you feel meek under his clouding eyes, and if you had been standing, you were almost sure that your knees would have crumbled on the spot. “Something else has shaken my appetite.”

His voice ran through your body deep, vibrating with a predatory glazing, that had you running the opposite of ice cold. You knew what he wanted, more so as he rounded the corner of the sofa, and tapped your leg with that damned musician’s tool, silently prompting you to widen your leg in a sustainable split. Without any hesitancy, you complied, placing your hands on your knees, watching as he digressed his whole form to be knelt on the fluffy white rug that filled the crooked rectangle to and from where you sat and the TV set.

“Are you sure you don’t want your salad honey, it’s waiting for you?” He practically snarled in reply to your enquiry, and to say that it didn’t make you wetter would be the biggest fib of your life. Sebastian was aware that you were pushing his buttons, metaphorically flipping the bird to him to piss him off, and well, it only ran as fuel for his mission. And that was to devour you, and for your juices to wash off the tattoos that had been printed on his skin at his workplace.

“Shut your fucking mouth, and open your cunt up, I won’t ask twice.” He eagerly, not caring if he split the material, ripped off your shorts, discovering that you had forgone any fabric underneath. It was all naked flesh, if your breaths weren’t as laboured, he was sure he’d have heard his stomach growl. The view he was on the receiving end of was one of tranquil beauty, provided by nature and the balls that he had those years ago to ask you out on a single date.

And now here he was, between your stretched legs, whiffing in the fragrance of your sweet cunt, eyeing your folds as he watched them twitch from overall anticipation. He allowed the drumstick to clatter onto the coffee table behind his back, as he ran his sensually adept palms along the crevices of your thighs, plucking at the skin, dragging his nails across the layer, and pressing a delicate message of his pecking lips to either of your knee caps.

His thumbs trailed a bridge down the insides of your parting, succumbing the to teasing each side of your labia, stirring the sensitive folds and prying them gently apart so that he could see your gathering honey build a lather beneath your moist clit. “Such a pretty pussy, the prettiest I’ve ever seen.” From the showering of compliments, you keener, whining lightly as you attempted to thrust your hips closer to his face, where he licked the middle of his top lip.

“Please do something Sebby. I’ve been waiting for you to come home all day, and you show up all dressed like this with that fucking stick, expecting the sight of you twirling the wood in your cursed hand not to drive me mad. Not to mention the hair, fuck the hair.” Combing your fingers through his brown locks, you brushed through the thin strands, hollowing your cheeks as you contained yourself whilst looking down at him.

“Sounds like you’ve had quite a day sweetness.” He spoke, slowly, his pace of everything making you maddened, and closer to falling off an edge without any relief. “And you, my lovely lovely lady, treat me so well. You’ve cleaned the hallway, got rid of all that crap we sorted through and took it to the charity shop, and you make me a healthy dinner that fits perfectly with my diet. I’m so lucky to have you, and have you by my side as I travel for work, and you not only give me the best type of company, but she does as well.”

She. He used that term in reference to your pussy, he once more swiped his fixating tongue over his lip, as he drifted his gaze through your opening, petting his knuckles over your bud with the slightest of pressures. “Think it’s my time to treat her real good, especially if I’ve been so cruel to the both of you returning home like this. Have to find a way for her to forgive me for my travesty of sin.” There was no question concerning the matter, even if you were insistent on praising him with the favour instead, he would still pay ample love to your cunt.

It all began as he lowered his skull into the display of your treasure chest, running his bottom lip across the expanse of your aroused lands, before flickering his tongue out, grasping every succulent drop of your current wetness, though his efforts were unjustified, for his actions only caused more to pool out. A smirk riddled his mouth, as he cupped your ankle with his left hand, stroking lightly over the ridges of the covered bone, his tongue delicately teasing your entrance, prodding at every wall that layered the outside.

Once the long and skilful appendage entered you, you found yourself throwing your head back against the mountain on cushions that lined the skeleton of the couch. He knew what he was doing, and that was a blessing, he worked some dark magic that had you verbalising words that your mother would disapprove of, but would please the devil himself. Your eyes squeezed closed in a tight clamp as he thrust his tongue in and out.

Perhaps you were spoilt as a child, because you found yourself calling out for an amplification of the torture of pleasure that you were currently being gifted with by the otherworldly overlords. “More, fuck! Please Sebs, no’ enough, need mo’e.” He rubbed his scruffy chin against the adjoining of your ass cheeks, as he shook his head, causing a squeal to rip from your chest, crafting him into a very proud man. Without you noticing, for your sight was shut out by your stubborn lids, he located the drumstick with his right hand, moving it across to be resting on his thigh whilst remaining in his grip.

It took much resilience from him also, but he extracted his tongue, averting a crisis of your tormented whines. As he pulled out, he felt your walls hugging his tongue, and he gunned, causing a spiral of vibrations to rivet through your half clothed body. You were left empty, still, even as something fondled your clit with firm taps. The sensation was a cooling one, brushing your skin with a crawling sensation of pleasure on pause and play, and it encouraged you to open your y/e/c eyes, and glance down at the tool that was within your partner’s use.

From seeing it alone, it made you insufferably needier. Sebastian was fondling your clit with that blood drum stick, but you couldn’t find yourself preaching against the usage of it. Instead it turned you on that much more, as you wound your hands through your own hair, wiggling your hips against his playful administrations. “Want more?” He asked, almost begging you to say an affirmed ‘yes’. The idea alone had you bashfully nodding your head, and that was enough content for your man to continue to what he was to do next.

Seb moved the drumstick down towards your clenching slit, running it through your liquid arousal, lubing up the wood and lathering the tip in your juices, before he began to penetrate you with one end of the tool. If the prop managers could see what he was doing now, they would be disappointed. He had said that he wanted to take them home for practice, and well, this was not the kind of such that they would picture. Hell, he didn’t even own a drumstick! It was an investment he was thinking of pursuing to aid him in his role, and this had him thinking that it indeed would be a damned good one.

Imagine that, drumsticks littered around every corner of the house; he could have you anywhere he liked. There was no objection to the tip of the one he currently was controlling as it swept through your entrance easily. It’s easy pass made sense, considering that it was much thinner that Seb’s fingers, and his coco that was raging from the sight that he was fixating himself with. It truly was a unique thing for him to try, but you liked him with a drumstick, and thus he had wanted to perform a show with it for you, involving her, as tried to thrust back onto its length.

“Holy shit.” Your face was all scrunched up in the hottest way as you gritted your teeth and forced your eyes open as you looked down at him. Your boyfriend sent you a sharp wink, of time for him decreasing the height that his jaw was in the air, as he latched his lips around your clit, suckling away at the swelled nub, as he swirled it around his mouth, as though it were simply a candy and he was trying to confiscate all the flavour from it. “‘M gonna cum baby, fuck, fuck, fucking hell!”

Using more elbow grease, and your words as encouragement, Sebastian angled his elbow at a different angle as he practically used his whole arm to quickly and harshly thrust the prop at his disposal in and out of you, as though he were human piston. A scream echoed from your mouth as tears swarmed in the corners of your eyes; you were extremely close. It wouldn’t be long until he pushed you over the euphoric edge, and stimulated you through an orgasm. He sucked harder on your clit, biting lightly on it, preening another shriek of pleasure out of your lips, as he felt a small gush wallow over his arm, more specifically, that what was revealed of the tattoo.

“Shit.” He spoke to himself as he watched the clear liquid spurt out of your tight cunt, which was trying to trap the stick inside. Sebastian slowly pulled the length of it out, revealing it to be soaked with your gush. “So fucking sexy baby.” The actor kissed up your body, planting a sloppy kiss upon your cheek, before he transitioned his touch to be on your lips, as his tongue delved inside of your mouth, spreading the taste of your pussy around for your to taste.

“That was, definitely not what I expected.” You admitted with a breathy laugh, gasping as Seb wrapped his hand around your throat, and presented you with a light squeeze. He watched your reaction, as he grasped the drumstick, and tapped and rolled it against your lips, spreading your juices around, so that he could lean forwards once more and clean off your essence. A slap sounded from your behind, as you jumped from both the sensation and sound, awaiting his next instructions.

“Go get my salad ready for me baby girl, and whilst you do so, bend over the countertop, and lose the hoodie. I want you as bare as the hallway now is, okay?” Shakily, he allowed you out of his grip, watching as you earnestly strutted, albeit a little lightheadedly, towards the attached kitchen, trusting the door to the fridge open, the green leaves of the sea constructed salad staring you in the face.

[beautifulterriblequeen]

AMA reread headcanon #2

I’m having further thoughts about Moonshadow assassin capabilities after rereading this ama question, which basically asks, Why didn’t Viren hide Harrow in the dungeon or somewhere, away from the Moonshadow assassins?

The given answer says, “I think hiding him anywhere was never really an option. The Moonshadow assassins would have had ways of locating him and slipping in no matter where he was...”

My initial guess, last fall, was this: since there already seems to be some kind of internal life-force sensor that Moonshadows can use--the way Lujanne simply touches Zym’s egg and determines that his life is fading--perhaps that skill can be honed and shifted from merely sensing all life around you in a beautiful symphony, to seeking one life force in particular, no matter where it is, for the purposes of hunting it down and taking it. A sort of Moonshadow Cerebro, if you will, which probably takes a lot of practice to achieve, and maybe a lot of focus to hold onto during a mission. Perhaps this is what Runaan was meditating on, the morning of the full moon: Harrow’s and Ezran’s life forces, pinging softly in the distance, somewhere in the castle.

Yeah, creepy and dark, turning a Moonshadow connection to life into a tracking skill for death. *shudders* I love it.

But yesterday, I was staring at this line and wondering whether there was more. See, it’s one thing to sense your target no matter where they are. But it’s another to do that slipping-in thing that the creators mentioned.

Viren says in S1E2 that Moonshadow assassins can “penetrate any defense.” Any at all? How would that work if you put Harrow behind a slew of locked doors? Magical barriers? Defensive monsters? All of the above at once?

One of the other AMA answers, paraphrased on reddit, got me thinking:

"Moonshadow elves partially slip into a dimension of the moon granting them full stealth mode."

If a partial shift into the dimension of the moon grants invisibility yet leaves them present this dimension, what would a full shift grant?

Here’s my guess, then, for a second layer of Moonshadow assassin skills that can be put to use on a mission: an accomplished and practiced assassin can focus their life force during a full moon and project themselves fully into the dimension of the moon--the world that Rayla visited in TTM. Doing so is basically dying, and they have to be perfectly poised and precise in order to come back into the real world exactly where they mean to--and not inside a wall or something--within a probably-short time limit like the 7 minutes it takes your brain to die if you lose access to oxygen or something. It’s a very risky move! But if anyone is going to push themselves to the limit of death--and beyond--to accomplish a mission, it’s a Moonshadow assassin.

The implications of such a skill are fabulous. Only the best assassins can probably do this, and they'll probably need a completely full moon to do it. But the effect would be terrifying. There you sit, surrounded by three dozen guards, behind eight magical wards, where not even a stray spider can sneak in, and suddenly there's a whisper of movement right behind you, and then you're dead. And not one of your guards sees a damn thing. They’d panic and bolt, and the word would get out: Moonshadow assassins are unstoppable.

The key here is what Viren believes the assassins are capable of. He knows better than to try to hide Harrow. His only suggestion was to try to mislead the assassins with a soul switcheroo, which could call back to the idea of Moonshadows being able to track a single life force. Whether Viren expected their tracking to follow Harrow’s body instead of his soul, or simply to be confused by two separate sources, I couldn’t say. But his soulfang solution seems like the TDP equivalent of trying to hide your heat signature from infrared scanners by hopping into a hot tub with a breathing straw.

So here I am with this really cool headcanon about a powerful and frankly dangerous Moonshadow ability, and I ask myself, Self, what kind of cool thing could this ability be used for?

I’m so predictable. You know where I’m headed, right?

I am super invested in Runaan's story arc, and in his character development. I'm eagerly awaiting S4 to see what happens next! We all want our favorite broody assassin set free so he can go be dramatic and stabby and also soft with his husband. It's basically a universal headcanon at this point that Runaan will be freed from his coin at some point, in some way.

You know which version of “Free Runaan” I'm not sure I've ever seen? Runaan rescuing himself. Considering his thematic elements and his coding, that's actually a really important idea. People in trauma aren't helpless damsels out of a fairy tale. They're people. And they deserve agency just like everyone else.

Within the plot of TDP, such a concept would need to be folded in with everything else that’s going on, though. Rayla still has to find her truth, and to deal with her motivations and choices. She deserves agency, too, as does Ethari, Callum, Claudia, Viren, Aaravos, Nyx, and anyone who might get included in the coin storyline.

It would be great to see Runaan use a Moonshadow dimension-slip to escape his coin to somewhere else. Where would he go? Well, there are a few possibilities, but “the real world” probably shouldn’t be one of them. If he can get out of hell on his own, and then need some guidance getting back to the real world--and to his family--from there, that lets multiple characters decide if and how much to lend a hand.

Trauma lies. It tells you that you’re alone, the only one who feels so horrible. But that’s not true. It’s never true. So the more characters who contribute to Runaan’s freedom, the better. Especially since it’ll be really good for him to experience, considering he’s spent his life holding everyone at arm’s length. It’ll be a good message of cooperation, and of forgiveness, and those are some of TDP’s strongest themes.

But so is agency! Having a voice, having a say in your own fate. I’m not sure how much of a say Runaan has really had in his own fate. That’s some information I’m also eagerly awaiting! Seeing him get to participate, even a little, in his own rescue from the hellcoin would be amazing, and maybe it could happen with a cool, scary, dramatic Moonshadow power like being able to walk in the land of the dead for a few minutes or something.

Runaan’s a badass, okay, show it to me, give. But also, just imagine some wild twist like Rayla struggling for most of S4 to find him and her parents, fighting, making allies, learning secrets, doing stealth stuff, figuring out who to trust, all building up an absolutely stellar arc for her, and at last she somehow gets that coin pouch, and she dumps it out, and while she’s so relieved to finally have found her parents again... Runaan’s coin is blank. Dun Dun DUNNNNNN, cue the credits!

[neokollection]

Reaction To Their S/O Feeling Ugly While Pregnant

WayV

‘hi if you get the chance could you please do a wayv version of “s/o feels ugly while pregnant” reaction? i really enjoyed the first two parts! thank you 💕💕💕’ NCT 127/U ver. is here~

Kun:

He’d be such a good dad-

You let the pads of your fingertips trace down the stretchmarks among the side of your stomach- You’d tried a variety of lotions & oils known for reducing scar visibility and yet they were still very much present.  With a sigh you rubbed the oil in as you examined yourself in the mirror. Would you ever be able to get rid of them-? It donned on you once again how nearly impossible it could be regain your previous body.

The ajar door opened slowly, revealing your fiancé, his eyes questioning and brows raised. 

“Yes?”

He gave his usual gentle smile, “I was just checking in on you- You’ve been in here for a while.”

“Oh-”

You hadn’t realized how long you’d been in there, having showered, shaved, and lazily towel dried your hair, you stood in front of the mirror for a matter of minutes in your joggers and bralette. He also took notice of your appearance, skin glowing with moisture, lips rosy, hair damp, droplets of water decorating your soft shoulders, the valley of your breasts calling to him, the large swell of your stomach reminding him you were the mother of his child. Words couldn’t express how he felt just looking at you- He slipped in, his grin growing as he positioned himself behind you, his hands sliding along your very bloated waist to the front of your balloon of a stomach. His hands were so much warmer and larger than yours.

“You smell good,” he noted, pressing his cheek to your damp hair, his breath tickling your ear.

His hands continued to roam along your stomach, his rougher fingertips glossing over the stretchmarks at your side repeatedly, the patterned indentations rapturing his attention.

“I can’t get rid of them,” you informed, lips pulling into a frown.

“You don’t have to,” he informed softly, his mesmerized hands tracing over them once more.

“Even after-” you choked up, “I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to go back to normal.”

The wells in your eyes spilled over, causing you to bring your hands to your face.

“Shh,” he coaxed, his hands going to your own as he turned turned your head gently, causing your feet to take tiny steps until you faced him, immediately letting your head fall to his shoulder.

“You’re perfect now- You were perfect before- And you’ll be perfect after,” he reminded, referring to your body, “You’re so beautiful, you have no idea-”

Ten:

Any chance he could, Ten would have his cheek pressed to your stomach, the small bump having enraptured his attention for the past months. He listened intently for signs of life, his hand going to rest of the expanse of your stomach, patiently awaiting a kick. At first it was quite endearing, but with time you felt more self-conscious as he’d lift the front of your shirt up.

Today he was feeling quite lovey, having been wrapped around you since he came home. His damp hair tickled your skin, his scent vanilla- You were glad he’d showered before climbing into bed with you, but wish he’d dried his hair. He pressed a tender kiss to your collar before nuzzling into your neck, drawn to the warmth as his hand slid from the mound of your stomach to your chest, giving one of your clothed breasts a gentle squeeze-

“Ten,” you whined slightly, shying away from the droplets of cold water that greeted you.

Reaching down as he hummed, he started pulling the front of your shirt up. With a kiss to your jaw he drew back- Before he could feast his eyes on the glory of your tummy you pushed your shirt back down, attempting to sit up slightly. Confused, he held your gaze for a long moment of silence, trying to decipher if you were mad at him, if he’d done something wrong.

“I’m not in the mood,” you informed, breaking eye contact for a brief moment.

Registering your words, he open but shut his mouth before breaking into a beautiful smile, collapsing toward you with a light chuckle. 

“That’s okay,” he replied, wrapping himself around your arm as he snuggled closer childishly, “I just want to be with you~”

He expected a reaction, a smile or giggle, even a roll of your eyes would suffice, instead you sighed quietly, turning your gaze from him.

“Um,” he began, “Am I being annoying or something-? You seem upset...” he trailed off.

You couldn’t think of how to express yourself, replying with a simple, “No,” with a voice crack- You now turned your face fully from him, knowing what would come next, tears.

“Baby,” he called, his tone serious, “What’s wrong?”

“I’m so ugly,” you whispered- “I’ve gotten so fat-”

Ten wore an incredulous expression, judging you.

“What are you talking about?”

You couldn’t reply, you didn’t want to be a crying mess.

He wrapped himself around your body, leg draping over your hip, you were surprised he had the strength to pull your body into his own.

“No, you’re not-” 

You still couldn’t reply, taking deep breaths to calm yourself and dry your eyes.

“I love you,” he reminded, pressing a kiss to your temple as he held you.

WinWin:

“Some girls you just can’t tell if they’re pregnant or just fat,” your friend ranted, stabbing another french fry with her fork before enlarging her eyes, “But like you- I can obviously tell you’re just pregnant,” she added in attempt to not be offensive. Yikes.

A dinner with friends was fun for the most part, but there were certainly characters who had rather strong opinions- Lately you simply felt you were matured, in different places in life- Less of a connection.

Distracted, she began to ramble about something else and you noticed Sicheng refill your glass of water. You hardly had an appetite, taking small bites of food before downing your water.

“Why don’t you eat more?” Sicheng prodded gently, leaning into your side.

“I’m not hungry.”

He pursed his lips in response, struggling for a moment for how he should proceed. Perhaps you didn’t like the meal, with his fork a stabbed a piece of your calzone, seemed fine. Using his fork to push your food aside he scraped some pieces of steak from his plate. 

“Sicheng,” you fought, not wanting him to waste his food on you.

“Try it-”

“You should just-”

“Eat,” he ordered, more authoritative this time.

With your fork you toyed with your food as Sicheng engaged in a new conversation.

As were pulling on your coat you could tell Sicheng was in a mood- Likely because you didn’t listen to him, idly pushing the food around your plate. You knew once you were in the car with him he’d expect an explanation. 

“You have to eat more-”

“I feel sick when I eat too much,” you retorted.

He gave a small sigh- You knew your body better than he did, but he still was worried for both of you, casting a quick glace at your belly.

“Is it because of what your friend said?”

“No!” you argued defensively, crossing your arms- He’d caught you.

“Babe,” he spoke, his voice low.

You couldn’t help but look at him for longer than you should have, the blurring lights of the city behind him fading as his masculine profile ensnared your attention, a hand on the wheel.

“Forget what she said- You’re beautiful,” he praised, eyes on the road, “You have to eat well, for both of you.”

His free hand stretched out to feel your bump- Mentally he promised himself he’d keep an even closer eye on you.

Lucas:

“Boy or Girl?” the elderly woman behind the register cheerfully asked.

Taken slightly aback you unconsciously placed your hand upon your stomach.

“Not sure yet,” you informed politely with a forced smile.

Lucas stood proudly next to you, a dumb smile playing on his face as he fished out his wallet.

“Well, you must have some prediction,” she yammered, “Mothers’ intuition!”

“I’m not sure,” you chuckled.

“A boy,” Lucas cheered quietly from beside you causing the elderly woman to smile.

You had to stop yourself from rolling your eyes, collecting the bags momentarily before your big strong boyfriend took them from stand, shooting you a look so as to ask why you even thought about carrying heavy grocery bags. A few strides in front of him and you were turning to him as the automatic doors parted.

“Is it that obvious?”

Though you were showing some, you thought the relatively loose sweater hid you enough- You still weren’t completely comfortable with the idea of being so... pregnant. Time was going so fast you felt yourself bloat day by day, suddenly you were walking around with a big bump to match the big oaf you were with.

Lucas’ eyes flitted around as he tried to figure out what you meant, a blank expression present as he waited for a car to pass.

“That she could tell I was pregnant...”

He gave you a once over followed by a nod and a hum of affirmation. You pursed your lips slightly before they puffed out in a small pout. 

Pulling the seatbelt over yourself you were once again reminded of the large bump. You suddenly felt much fatter than you’d previously thought... Every so often Lucas cast you glances, noticing your quiet demeanor. He remained quiet for a long while, just taking in the atmosphere, mulling over what he should do or say- If he’d done anything to cause the situation or if was simply baby-hormones... Once home to two of you quietly put the groceries away, Lucas trying to make idle conversation, but your mood was just down...

Finally, he asks what’s wrong. You shake your head, but he knows something’s up so he keeps pestering about it, asking if it was him or-

“Nothing! I just don’t feel ready or good or anything!” you burst.

He tries his best to piece together what you mean, scratching his head slightly.

“Not ready for the baby?” he asks, stepping closer to look down at you closely, his large hands going to the front of your bump.

“I wasn’t ready to be pregnant and now I- It’s going so fast and- I feel so ugly and I didn’t think I was showing so much, but now everyone knows and I-”

He quieted you by moving his hands to either side of your face, pulling you into his chest gently. He didn’t say much, just held you, letting you whine into his chest in frustration. 

He’d let you get it out and later try to cheer you up by being dorky and sweet then shower you in compliments like ‘uR the MoSt BeAUtiFuL gOrL N dA w0rLd BABIEE!’ Eventually I think he’d take on a more serious tone as well and tell you seriously you’re doing amazing and so beautiful, he loves you so much.

XiaoJun:

okay, this one is less planned & romantic tbh, but this is like my worst nightmare as a vain hoe..

No, that couldn’t be right- You were NOT pregnant. You’d always used condoms... There was still a chance, but so small you never thought it’d be you... You’d go out and buy another one. Maybe this test was just a dud- Yet there was a gnawing feeling in the back of your mind, you’d missed your period and felt pretty sick, which was why you’d chosen to take the test in the first place. What if you were pregnant? What would you do? The father could only be DeJun (or should we call him XiaoJun), your boyfriend of two years. What would he do? What would your parents do...? Neither of you were ready for that. You weren’t ready for that... Imagining yourself bloated and pregnant made you want to shrink into a ball. That couldn’t be you. You weren’t ready for your life to end so quickly. You saw the man you’d been waiting for, adjusting the strap of his shoulder bag as he perused the library in search of you.

“Xiao!” you called out in a rather loud whisper, trying to be discreet. Perhaps it’d been a bad idea to take the pregnancy test in the university bathroom

Once he saw you he bounded over to you, his thick brows knitting together once he saw your frazzled expression. 

“So, where did you want to go? I was kind of craving Pho-”

You’d called him over but now you weren’t sure what to say... You couldn’t just tell him point blank right here- Should you?

“Or...” he pondered, taking in your silence, “Pizza?”

Yep, if you were with him you’d definitely get fat- Knowing him he’d want to do everything for you and pamper you even more than he already does- Definitely one to give into your cravings. It was still so early on, yet you were already too deep down the rabbit-hole.

“I- don’t want to- Do you know how many calories that is-?”

“So... You never cared before,” he teased, “Are you on a diet or something,” he asked hesitantly, his expression flattening.

You were still thinking what to do.

“You don’t need to,” he added, clasping your hands in his own, swinging them idly by your hips as he puffed out his lower lip.

OMG so, doesn’t exactly fit the scenario I guess, but it’s really hard to not make it repetitive,,, but you KNOW he’d be so caring and supportive. He’d tell you over and over you’re still just as pretty as before and that you’re overthinking, but if it’d make you feel better he’d assist you with dieting or light exercise, just to make your mental feel a bit better. 

Hendery:

“Do you think I’ll be a good dad?”

You nearly choked on the M&M between your lips at his sudden question.

“I think,” you paused, imaging him with a child in his arms for a moment, “I think you’ll be an amazing dad! I wouldn’t have let you get me pregnant otherwise-”

He guffawed, his chest vibrating against your back on the sofa as his forehead fell to the nape of your neck, his hand stilling on your hump as he collected himself. You giggled with him for a moment, eyes trained on the television as you dipped your hand into the bag of M&M’s once more.

“And I think you’ll be a great mom,” he informed, causing a blush to dust your cheeks.

At times it still felt unreal, that the two of you would be parents in just a few short months- Though technically you already were.

“I can imagine it,” he murmured, resting his cheek upon your hair as he spooned you, the television simply background noise as the two of you attempted to picture your futures.

Though you knew there were more important things than appearance, you couldn’t help but imagine yourself next to Hendery, married with a child... Though before being pregnant you still felt your body wasn’t good enough, you now realized how much you’d taken for granted - You couldn’t even wear pants comfortably... You wanted to envision yourself as your previous weight and body, but what if you could never- What if you could never feel confident again...?

“What are you thinking about?” Hendery prodded, just from his voice you could tell he was smiling. 

“Nothing.”

Even though it gnawed at you, you felt stupid- It wasn’t important, but it was something you tended to selfishly hyper-focus on. You knew if you told Hendery he’d brush your worries aside, he was rather biased in that regard. You wondered if he saw envisioned you as back at your former weight or-? What sort of expectation did he have?

“I love you,” he murmured, almost tickling you with the way his fingers crawled across you, his bare feet toying with your own.

He had a way of putting all your worries to ease without trying- Without even telling him your concerns you felt relieved and loved. Turning a bit clumsily in his arms you faced him, his smile growing as your bump knocked into him.

idk im just super soft for him okayyyyyyyyyyy and trust him with my life

YangYang:

He’s so baby, I can’t imagine it-

You had a hard time seeing your own feet, craning your neck to see the numbers on the scale.  With an exhale you stepped off. It was the heaviest you’d ever been; it was to be expected that you’d gain weight carrying a child and all, but seeing the digits didn’t feel great either.

“Oh- 2 kilograms (4.4 lbs) since last week- Our boy is growing big and strong,” YangYang smiled excitedly, his hand going to your stomach out of habit.

You weren’t so sure it was the baby growing- It was probably just you- The late night binges you’d had over the weekend making you feel nauseous just thinking about-

“Woah!” he exclaimed, steadying you for a moment.

“I’m fine,” you assured, voice bland.

“Let’s sit down,” he suggested, expression etched with concern.

If you fell, there’d be no promise he could come to your rescue- You felt you’d probably squash him.

“I’ve got you,” he assured nonetheless.

At your side he held your hip, his other holding your hand as he guided you from the bathroom. You just wanted to climb into bed, your eyes felt heavy.

“Easy,” he coaxed, positioning you to sit down on the side of the bed slowly.

Your own strength was zapped, unable to even push yourself to the pillows. He hesitated to even leave you, but quickly side-stepped to your other side, his back facing the headboard as he reached down, scooping you into his arms princess-style, sliding you upwards into a comfortable position as he knelt on the mattress. Your hand gripped his denim jacket deathly, scared for a moment he would drop you or fall into you due to your imbalance of weight. 

“I’ve got you,” he repeated, having no trouble.

He knew you were probably just scared in the moment, but he wanted you to trust and rely on him.

“I’m heavy-”

“Not really,” he retorted, comfortably positioning the pillows behind you for a moment.

“Actually,” his actions stilled, “I’m worried about you- You’ve become thinner,” he explained, pinching the flesh of your upper arm softly. He was just worried for both your health and the baby’s.

[chronicbatfictioner]

Exchanges and Compromises - Chapter 16

Just as Tim predicted, a week later, Bruce Wayne requested to meet him at work. While the request itself - sent through proper channels that is Tim's secretary - it specifically requested Tim by name. It had made a little stir with the other members of the company's Board of Directors, as they all thought that 'little Timmy' shouldn't be meeting the 'big and scary' Bruce Wayne by himself. "What if he manipulated Tim into a merger??" some had asked. It wasn't until Tim assured them that he would not make any corporate decisions without prior consulting - and stating that he 'doesn't like Bruce Wayne at all. He's a doof,' - that the rest of the BOD relented.

Bruce came in accompanied by Alfred Pennyworth, the family's butler. Bane, Tim knew, was accompanying Dr. Thomas and Mrs on a trip overseas. For some reason, the Waynes did not promptly send Bane away, even after he literally and physically got tossed out of the Wayne Manor's living room's bay windows - courtesy of Jason - when he tried to attack Damian.

"If this is a business meeting, Bruce, I would appreciate it if you wait for the rest of my BOD members to come up here," Tim hinted.

"No, no, no it's not..." Bruce seemed a little thinner than when Tim last saw him in person, a little disheveled and worse for wear, which would be odd given the fact that Alfred was right by his side. No self-respecting butler would have allowed their masters to leave the house looking like Bruce then - Tim knew, his dad had one since Tim was very young. Tim might not opt to keep the butler when his parents passed, but he knew the tenets fairly well.

Yet, Alfred just looked mildly disapproving but had walked into the office in the same eager speed as Bruce did.

Tim briefly wondered to whom Alfred's loyalty lies.

"I need... I need to know that there are no recording devices in here," Bruce stated.

Tim took a few blinks to choose an answer, "I'm not of the habit of having recording devices in my office. You, however, came with a tracking device," Tim pointed out.

"What?? I've left my cellphone in the car! Is it... can it listen? Record?" The shock on Bruce's face was more prevalent than when Damian came out of nowhere and called him 'father.'

Tim checked his monitoring system, courtesy of Harper Row, which can detect the type and model and broadcast type of any gadget and displayed it on Tim's cellphone. "No, it just tracks your location and is GPS-based. Why...?"

"Oh thank god..." Bruce slumped in his seat. "Alfred, can you make sure that no one would come here until I'm... until we're done?"

"Certainly, Master Bruce," Alfred bowed lightly and walked out the door.

"Wow, okay... whatever this is has got to be... better be important. I mean, you sent your butler out the door..." Tim commented.

"It is. It's about..." Bruce still hesitated. "Look, I don't usually do this. I don't know why. But you, your work-- your company and its line of business would make you-- would get you in touch with your end-clients, right? The common people who used social security benefits to get their meds, Doc Leslie Thompkins' patients and all that..."

He paused, so Tim shrugged. "I do try to personally meet my end-client to figure out what kind of medications they would need more; and Dr. Thompkins is one of my clients, too, whose assessment I can quite trust. You're not planning to get into the generic meds business also, are you?"

"No, no, no... This has nothing to do with WE. I mean... it should be, in the long run. But in the short run... Look, this would sound odd. But when you talk to your clients, have you ever hear of the Birds of Prey?" Bruce asked. Tim studied the man before him for a good long while. Before he could answer, Bruce continued, "my cousin Kate... she has just gotten kicked out of the military academy. She said she thought of donning a costume and joined the Birds of Prey to fight crime, so she could feel useful again, you know? I told her they're criminals, vigilantes. She said I should go down to meet the common people of Gotham and ask them what they think of the Birds of Prey. And then I thought of you."

"Yeeea... I'm not following..." Tim feigned - but only partially. He could already tell where the direction of Bruce's conversation was trying to take.

"Do you think they're criminals or heroes? I mean, does anybody ever mention them doing like, extortion, murder, stuff like that...?" Bruce insisted.

"Are you like, worried for your cousin Kate or... is there anything of significance that I should know about?" Tim finally decided to just bite the bullet and ask right out. There is no recording device in his office, all right. But his tiepin doubles as a camera that would send to Barbara as soon as Tim turned it on. And he had turned it on the instant Bruce walked in.

"As far as I've heard, the Birds of Prey -- ooh, I hate the pun, but it's right there-- preyed on criminals. Those who take advantage of the weak and all that jazz. I've experienced their... service��if you will; when my delivery trucks were hijacked by some supposedly-metahuman group. They stopped the hijacking and arrested the group. They even found out that the group had an inside man right here." he elaborated.

The case was widely publicized, after all, when three trucks in succession that contained generic medications to be delivered to Gotham General and several free clinics were hijacked. The short version was the Birds of Prey stopped the hijacking as it was happening, then the glorious GCPD arrested those men, and they also discovered the inside man within Drake Industries - one of the Directors who had planned to jump ship while sinking DI along with it.

In reality, it had been Tim's work. The Birds - Dinah and Helena - helped with physically stopping the hijacking; while Tim dug out the paperwork and discovered the traitor. Barbara had then sent the evidence to the police, along with video footage of the man talking to a competitor of the company.

"Oh yeah, I've heard of the case. So you don't think they're bad people?"

Tim slow-shrug, just for the sake of dramatization. "I won't say they're totally good people - I mean, them hijackers looked like they've gone 12 rounds with Ted Grant the boxer. And they supposedly have like, superpowers or something. But I'm not gonna say they're bad people - they knew exactly where those shipments were going and who'd be using them, and they worked hard to stop the hijacking, you know. Financially speaking, DI might be able to weather like, a dozen hijacking. But for those people who needed the meds..." he let the sentence trailed for Bruce to fill in the blanks. He knew that the man has the same metaphorical bleeding heart as Martha Wayne, his mother.

"Okay..." Bruce actually looked a little more alive after the explanation. "Do you know how to contact them? I need to ask them for help."

"Oh, wow... Heh. It's not like I have them on my speed-dial... I think they maybe have an inside man in GCPD? They showed up right after I made the report of the third hijacking." Tim hedged, internally cursing himself for not finishing his project of the Birdcall app. The cellphone app would have made it easier for anyone to call the Birds or to alert the Birds of crimes. Alas, the whole issue with Jason and Damian's appearance has delayed its development. Tim made a mental note to assign Harper on it.

Bruce looked disappointed. "I see... then I will need you to relay this to the GCPD for me, Tim, can I trust you? I mean, it's... crucial," he said.

"What is this about, the kid and his guards?" Tim tested, just for kicks.

"Oh, no. The kid... Damian and his guards were actually a kind of reprieve in the household. They made sure that everything would be... proper and in order." Bruce smiled thinly. "It's about Bane. I have evidence that he has murdered a lot of people."

"Oh my," Tim gasped earnestly, really. Jason and Dick, and even Damian, have reported that aside from Bane's obvious animosity against them, he had tried nothing - yet. They were also the ones who told Tim that Bane has placed nanotech trackers on all three Waynes' clothing. Unfortunately, they were not able to actually snoop around - as there would always be one of the Waynes in the house.

Bruce handed him a small USB drive. "It's all here. Please, Tim. I mean, before this, I couldn't care less if that brute would leech all of the family's fortune. But now I have a son to think of... Talia might have made sure he's physically well-guarded. But Bane is a long-con kind of person and is really patient. He came to Gotham specifically for us after so many years. He..." he paused. "I believed my father when he told me that he had not betrayed my mother. But without a shred of physical evidence, there is nothing either of us can do. And how are you going to ask for a DNA sample from someone like Bane?"

"Spoon? Toothbrush? Hairbrush?"

"He's bald," Bruce replied dryly. "I'm not even sure he'd showered. Alfred said his bathroom has always remained tidy."

"Ew. No. Okay. Uh... I can't promise you that any bird would come your way, but I'll figure out a way to let this fall to the right hands, yeah?" Tim replied, putting the USB drive into his suit jacket - where Barbara could remotely access it through the circuitry in said pocket.

"Okay," Bruce looked relieved. "And now, since Bane is tracking me and I'm sure he knows what this building is, how about we come up with a stupid cover story?"

A proposal landed in Tim's sight just as Bruce finished talking. He grinned mischievously. "How about we collaborate to expand Leslie Thompkins' Free Clinic? Everybody's happy, and neither of us won't lose sleep over it."

"You'd have made a great corporate spy, do you know that?" Bruce grinned back, looking a thousand times happier than when he walked in.

"Oh yeah, but I already have my own ways to get secrets," Tim winked as he handed the proposal over. "Have a look at this, and let me know what you think. I think we can spend the discussion over lunch. Would Alfred mind if we ask him to acquire our lunches?"

"I'm sure he would be delighted if he hasn't already..." Bruce replied, getting up and opened the door. Alfred stood there with several paper bags in his hands. "He has already, it seemed," Bruce reported.

"Indeed, sirs. It is most rude to visit an associate without bringing anything. I daresay a quick lunch is sufficient for you, Master Timothy?" Alfred replied as he entered and set up the contents of the bags - several types of sandwiches and salad mixes.

"Oooh, more than sufficient, thank you, Alfred!"

"Not a problem, Sir. Please indulge, gentlemen." Alfred smiled. "Might I remind you, Master Bruce, that the Doctor and Mrs. Wayne shall return in two hours? It would be prudent to conclude your discussion by then." he hinted.

"Definitely, Alfred. We're just talking about what needs to be done to expand a hospital." Bruce grinned triumphantly at him, showing him the proposal. "Mother would be delighted at this."

[lestvt]

“akrasia” >> pt.2, TEASER

“It’s recently occurred to me that my existence might be dependent on the relative existence of others,” Will states grimly, staring down into the amber liquid in his glass. 

“Is that why you’ve remained here all this time despite your turbulent feelings?” 

He hesitates for three solid seconds before nodding. 

“And what has inspired this sudden bout of philosophy?” Hannibal asks, because knowing the answer and hearing it are two entirely separate things.   

Will’s face pinches. “I’ve been trying to picture it, but I can’t - like that rendition of me has been irreversibly erased. I can’t remember how it feels to be him anymore.” He breathes sharply out his nose, almost smirking. “Not that I want to remember - not exactly, but at the same time never knowing for sure if I could seems even worse. I don’t think I can continue to exist without the answer. I wouldn’t be able to forgive myself.” 

“Assuming that’s true, in what world do you imagine that version of you still exists? One where you kill me perhaps?”

Will really does smirk this time. It’s a stunningly savage expression. “No, I doubt even death would completely stop you from hurting me. I’m talking about a world where you’re gone. Where I’m… untouched by you.”

Hannibal smiles back. He enjoys the implication that even after his ultimate demise he would linger, if only as a ghost in Will’s wonderfully vivid memory. 

“But you find you are unable to construct such a hypothetical.” 

Will nods again.  

“Does that frighten you?” 

His nose twitches as he answers. “I find it… impractical. It means I can’t predict myself around you any better now than I could before.”

Hannibal let’s the silence fester when he’s done. 

“You crave agency though you doubt it’s validity,” he observes after a while. “But, Will, control is not meant for everyone. Why do you feel as though you need to predict yourself in order to be who you wish to be?”      

He lets out a short laugh. “The same reason you do, I imagine.” 

Hannibal hums thoughtfully at that. “No two people are exactly alike in their expectations, either for themselves or for others. Your heightened empathy doesn’t change that fact - hence why I say control is not for everyone. What works to keep one person content may have the opposite effect on another.”

“So, you think my ‘contentment’ lies in the flat out devastation of autonomy?” Will practically spits his words.  

 “Nothing so drastic. Perhaps its willful concession,” suggests Hannibal. “But I do believe it is a question worth asking. And only you, dear Will, are capable of unearthing the answer.”

“How aptly put,” Will mutters sarcastically, raising his glass to his lips. Hannibal watches as his throat undulates around a gulp. “It probably is a fossil by now. It even feels like I swallowed a rock.” 

 “Stone is by no means infallible,” Hannibal soothes. “Very few things are. With enough heat and pressure, it becomes plasma.” 

“Malleable, like clay,” Will supplies. 

“Yes, and yet hazardous. If you were to attempt to mold something from it, it would undoubtedly melt your flesh and reveal the bones in your hands.”   

“So, I’m lava in this metaphor?” 

Hannibal tilts his head. The amused glint in his eyes is confirmation enough.  

“Guess that makes you a hell of a masochist,” Will chuckles. 

Hannibal’s grin deepens. “‘Sadomasochist’ would be rather more applicable in my opinion.” 

Will laughs again and shakes his head. “I’m not stone, molten or otherwise. Lately, I don’t even feel like water anymore. I think I’m becoming smoke.” Like you, he does not say. 

“Or steam,” offers Hannibal. “Though they are not completely dissimilar.”  

Will looks up at that, staring at him with hard, narrow eyes. 

“Yeah,” he concurs after a while. “Steam.” 

Then, as his gaze shifts away, his mind too drifts off. He stares at the wall with a miniscule smile on his face and it’s clear he’s gone elsewhere, perhaps wading through a river on an early, cool summer morning, when the grass is still dew laden and fragrant. And for that brief moment he appears truly complacent.   

Then, suddenly his expression shatters. “But maybe I was wrong. If I actually went through with it,” he pauses, again to meet Hannibal’s scrutiny. “If I killed you… maybe I’d go back to normal.” 

“You were never ‘normal,’ Will.” Hannibal switches the way his legs are crossed before continuing. “I don’t believe you crave ‘normality’ either. You crave self-sufficiency just as much as you wish to denounce it. It’s an expectation you hold yourself to without leniency while easily forgiving its absence in others.”  

“Is that where we’re similar, Doctor Lecter?” Will asks in a caustic tone. “So, which ways exactly do we differ? You’ll have to point them out for me, the lines become less and less clear by the day. I’m even starting to talk like you.”

“You are your own person, Will,” Hannibal assures, still smiling saccharinely at him. “Feeling a heightened sense of reliance on another human being doesn’t devalue that.” 

“Not even if I’m wholly reliant on them?” 

“No. Your ability to blur the lines so irreversibly is precisely what defines you as Will Graham. It’s a rare and singular gift - believing and remembering this ensures your continued existence, not the mere existence of others.” 

Will’s answering grin is blank and does not meet his eyes. He is mimicking what he thinks he sees on Hannibal’s face. Perhaps unconsciously, but, then again, perhaps not.

“You’re a terrible liar,” he says. Just when Hannibal is about to rebuke him, he goes on, pointedly cutting him off. “I don’t mean you’re bad at lying - I’m saying the opposite. The way you lie is terrible specifically because you’re so good at it. Sometimes I wonder if you even know you’re twisting the truth… until you do.”

“I am also a slave to my philosophies,” Hannibal admits. “‘Morality’ and ‘truth’ as they are defined by man can be extremely restrictive. It’s amazing what the human mind can train itself to believe and therefore do when it’s given free reign to explore its limits. My curiosity defines me much the same as your empathy defines you, but I do not lie if I can help it.”  

“Yeah,” Will concedes, all but whispering. Once again, he peers down into his drink. “I guess you would see it that way.”

[bbq-hawks-wings]

After the DabiHawks shippers took on the “he’d hate Endeavor if he found out his past then ttly became a villain!” I’ve had this rage about the subject lol. Endeavor is not Enji. That’s been stated by even Natsuo and a lot by Shouto. Hawks is a fan of Endeavor the hero and he’s shown to be great at compartmentalizing so I don’t think it’d matter much to him. (Like how Deku was.) Especially since Endeavor became self aware and is changing. Really what we need is more background. HORI! 😡

"That last ask reminded me how much I dislike fanfics' portrayal of Hawks' reaction to Endeavor's past, lol. I guess that's more to do w/ people hating Endeavor but they forget that these two have a good relationship that goes beyond hero worship by now. Endeavor cares for Hawks and Hawks got to see his change, to support and trust him. That's why the reveal will be extra painful and Hawks' reaction cannot be predicted, it's very complicated." -Another Anon (We'll call you A2)

All this interaction and just from something I plunked down in my blog without major tags? I really do have a significant amount of people who read my stuff, thanks everyone!

Tw: Abuse of various kinds

Before responding I'd like to take a step back and frame this is real-world terms for a second: abuse is rampant in our local communities even if you may not realize it. Both my parents came from backgrounds with abusive parents/step-parents - some of which was on par with what the Todoroki's went through. That scratches the tip of the iceberg of people I personally know who have suffered some sort of domestic abuse, including myself, let alone the people I know of who have experienced it.

We really need to be sensitive to the fact that some respond to Enji the way they do because they don't see a fictional character with a story and message to tell in the larger scheme of the series - they see their own abuser, that person who on whatever level ground them down and made them feel like something less than human for however long and may even still be doing so. Have compassion for these folks. Not every Enji-anti is a cancel culture party planning purist ambassador.

Hawks is a comfort character for a lot of people, and many have used his ambiguous/mysterious personality as a blank canvas to project their woes onto and triumph over them vicariously through him. I've even done so. When his canon past came to light, a lot of them doubled-down on it, believing their victory was near. For those with open wounds, vehemently rejecting that abuser is a common cathartic release dream - especially if they've only recently come to terms with the fact that they aren't the ones at fault for what they went/are going through. Anger is a normal reaction.

For many of these people, the idea that someone who had it in them to do THAT to a human being could EVER, ACTUALLY want to change and CAN change is, frankly, actual insanity.

On the other side of the coin are people who believe that while those individuals need to have consequences of some kind for what they've done, they are allowed to make strides to improve who they are moving forward. They can never erase the evil they've inflicted on others, and it's up to their victims to decide if they forgive them individually; but never letting a genuinely remorseful person try to be better one day at a time leaves the world at least as ugly as we left it.

You had a good word for it, A2 - it's complicated.

Part of forfeiting your right to forgiveness as a former abuser includes not only giving up your right to be forgiven by your victims but by anyone you lied to as you commited and hid the abuse.

To A1's point, Enji and Endeavor until recently have not been the same person. He's Enji Todoroki first, and he lied to everyone to maintain his image as Endeavor the hero. In fact, he sacrificed the integrity of Enji to exist as Endeavor, so Endeavor the hero is not free of the crimes of Enji Todoroki.

For someone like Hawks who may have looked up to Endeavor, after coming to the conclusion that Papa Takami was a garbage human being, and thought "That's what a good man looks like! He would be a good dad to me if I was his kid," he would be justified in not forgiving Endeavor/Enji for implicitly lying to him for years, enforcing a false version of reality that lead to him selling his freedom as a child and not fighting back harder when he was older because to Hawks they are the same person - if you're this good to the public, you're this good in private. If Endeavor did all this, lied to Keigo and the public, with the HPSC's blessing, Hawks has the right to spit pure venom because in his mind you can't separate the hero from the person. Recognize that there isn't anything of Keigo Takami that isn't Hawks, and Hawks exists at the cost of Keigo Takami. If Hawks goes down, so does Keigo.

"If it means getting my hands dirty to put the minds of others at ease, I'll gladly take on this task."

The series is trying to tell us that, too. Have you noticed that none of the "big three" have real hero names atm? They're Shouto, Bakugo, and Deku. Even Izuku's choice to be called Deku is symbolic in this sense. Deku isn't a hero-proper, he's just Deku doing what Deku does because that's who Deku is. Call him by any other name, that's who he is at his core, it's who he was before he ever got a quirk, and it would be that way if he was recognized as a proper hero or not.

The HPSC has tried to strip Hawks of Keigo Takami unsuccessfully because they can't - if anything, by choking out Keigo Takami's ability to exist outside of Hawks they've reinforced a sense of personal identity and responsibility over his own actions that they can't undo. All Might only exists because Yagi Toshinori wanted to create a paragon, and in feeding All Might's existence Yagi Toshinori withered away. And on the same note, when Jin Bubaigawara reached the end of his rope and had nowhere to go and no one left to turn to, he became Twice and found a place that wanted him.

Now, Jin felt like his own most ideal version of himself as Twice, and even despite his laundry list of crimes up to and including murder Hawks still felt he was worthy of redemption - even just the chance for it. Will Endeavor, whose list of crimes also stack up in similar fashion also be worthy? Does it matter what you call yourself or what you've done that matters, or does it come down to what you want to do and who you want to be that counts?

It's hard to tell. It's complicated. We'll just have to wait and see.

[greaterblogston]

I don't know y'all. This one was hard. And I'm not sure I really did that great of a job. But honestly, that's probably true of the last couple of these, so oh well.

I'll give brief explanations below, sometimes int he form of lyrics, sometimes in the form of cryptic nonsense. If you have questions, feel free to ask. Lyrics are italicized.  

A lot of these songs are dance-punk or new age punk bands that sound kinda dance-y (Devo, Gang of Four). I like the idea that Leon liked things with specific and predictable rhythms to them, so that kind of music made sense. And then this narrative presented itself throughout the playlist - dancing became synonymous for...well, living. Do you decide to dance, even if dancing is draining? Life can be draining too. You don't have to dance to be alive, but if dancing makes you feel alive, then please keep dancing.

Track listing after the break.

1. Stroke it Noel - Big Star Do you wanna dance? Easy, now!

2. Everything In Its Right Place - Radiohead A thesis song for Leon. Order that slowly slips into musical chaos, becomes somewhat orderly again. But is still messy. Everything can be in its right place, but for how long?

3. Natural's Not In It - Gang of Four The orderly, sharp rhythm and beat, and list-like lyrics remind me of Leon. as do lines like "this heaven gives me migraine."

4. [I Can't Get No] Satisfaction - Devo For some reason I feel like Leon would like Devo, mostly because of how orderly and tight their songs feel, but this song also matches his MO a bit. Never the Rolling Stones. Leon would not be a Stones fan. God, no. But Devo's version? Yeah, he can get into that. He's never satisfied either. There's too much chaos in the world.

5. Dance Yrself Clean - LCD Soundsystem I imagine Leon confronting the worst parts of his personality in this song. Doing things that intentionally piss people off just because it's part of his nature. Like refusing to dance, even though he knows someone like Louisa loves it. Making these fussy plans and scheduling everything obsessively, even if he does do things to support others. In other words: Talking like a jerk / except you are an actual jerk / and living proof that sometimes friends are mean. / Present company expect it / Present company just laugh it off / it's better than it seems.

6. No Big Bang - Priests I get the exhilaration but when you look down and see the sheer stupidity of the roller coaster just staring you in the face as blank and inescapable as the slab of concrete below Just waiting to catch you, to crush you, your falling body, your skull All of the sudden all of the science and evolution and progress I mean sure, it looks good from a distance but when you're really inside of it you realize it's fucking terrifying

7. Dead - They Might Be Giants The quintessential song about realizing you're dead and maybe wishing you weren't.

8. Crystalized - The xx Yeah, bad pun. Leon is a crystal ball now, get it? But also a lovely little song about a complicated relationship, of which Leon has plenty.

9. Lost Coastlines - Okkervil River This is a song about two friends who are parting. The two singers were both in two different bands, Okkervil River, and Sheerwater, and one singer was leaving to focus on the other band full time. And there's just something so beautiful about these two guys duet on one song together for a final time, recognizing something was over, celebrating the time they had, what they created, celebrating each other. It's just a beautiful song and it kinda reminds me of Michael and Leon a little. There's distance there, but they will always be close.

10. Self Control - Frank Ocean Sometimes you'll miss it / the sound makes you cry Some nights you're dancing / with tears in your eye

11. Leave Me Alone - New Order From my head to my toes / From the words in the book I see a vision that would bring me luck / From my head to my toes / To my teeth, through my nose You get these words wrong You get these words wrong / Everytime You get these words wrong / I just smile

12. Retrograde - James Blake I feel like this is Leon at his loneliest. This is an incredibly lonely song. The lyrics don't really match much of what he's going through. Well, maybe the lines "You're on your own in a world you’ve grown," and "So show me where you fit."

13. I Always Wanna Die (Sometimes)- The 1975 I bet you thought your life would change / but you're sat on a train again Your memories are sceneries for things you said / but never really meant. 14. Over and Over - Hot Chip Steady beat. You can dance to it. But does Leon want to? I love that it's about repetition. Something Leon appreciates for its predictability. I like the veiled threat of lines like, "Laid back, I'll give you laid back." Leon is not going to give you laid back.

15. Pieces of the People We Love - The Rapture Cause everybody's got a little piece of someone they hide It's okay, it's the way we distract until the day we die

16. Heartbeats - The Knife Look I don't have a good reason for this to be here other than I want it to be and feel like it should be. Think of it as Leon saying goodbye to Michael in a way. I don't know. Or Leon as a guiding higher power for Michael, but also accepting that Michael needs to grow on his own. Sure. That's the ticket.

17. Unforgettable Season - Cut Copy You sent an SOS away / Reach across the sky Through glowing windows we stare / But not at home

18. Subways - The Avalanches 19. Going Home - The Avalanches These are just fun danceable mixtape music about riding the Subway so I felt, "How can I not include them on a Greater Boston playlist with dance music on it?"

20. Bodys - Car Seat Headrest This is my favorite song of the year. I could have died this year. I had a pretty bad health scare. And lines like, "Do you realize our bodies could fall apart at any second?" hit home harder than they did earlier in the year. Ultimately this song is about letting go out your personal anxieties and deciding to live, deciding to ask someone to dance, deciding to embrace life while you can. I think it's appropriate for Leon. I think it's appropriate for all of us. But it's especially appropriate for me right now. So, "those are you got some nice shoulders. I'd like to put my hands around them."

21. ...While You're Alive - Jeff Rosenstock & 22. Perfect Sound Whatever - Jeff Rosenstock Possibly weird choices, but "when you're a ghost they'll sit around and talk about why they love you the most," make it a must to include. And it's another song that's about telling people why they matter to you while they have the time.

The second song is about acknowledging that chaos is inevitable. There is no perfection. A good lesson for Leon and all his planning. "Perfect always takes so long because it doesn't exist." There is no perfect sound. It doesn't exist. Then again, if it were to exist, a room full of people cheerily chanting, "It doesn't exist!" at the top of their lungs might be it.

23. Let's Dance - Spiritualized The hour is getting late They're putting all our dreams away Lord have mercy on all of our thoughts today I should get away But I would rather stay and dance C'mon darling let's dance.

[goutheswimqueen]

Who is Hiyori Tono?

Hoooo BOI. This man right here is a big mystery to me, just waiting to be solved. I’m gonna have a long post about my thoughts on him and his role under the cut, so if you’re just as curious about him as I am, lets have a discussion!

So far we only know Hiyori Tono as Ikuya’s friend, teammate, and high school roommate. He’s a backstroke swimmer, his animal is the polar bear, and the only person we’ve ever seen him interact with is Ikuya.

Since Ikuya is the “antagonist” of this season, I didn’t really expect too much to come from Hiyori. I figured he would be to Ikuya as Aiichirou was to Rin in season 1... a light in his time of darkness. After this new season began and seeing some of his moments in the first episode, I started to think otherwise.

Before Dive to the Future, we got to see Hiyori interact with Ikuya in the Timeless Medley movies and Take Your Marks. He seemed like a simple, sort of bubbly kind of guy with an affinity for Ikuya. (and according to the fandom, a memelord)

So, with the few appearances made by Hiyori, of COURSE I wasn’t expecting much. I had already fallen in love with his character, so I wasn’t really desiring much either. Then of course Kyoani had to throw me off guard and throw in hints that he might have a bigger role to play than initially expected.

First of which is this very peculiar visual from the OP:

Not only was Hiyori given his own moment to stand out, but it is also very different from the majority of the individual character highlights that the OP gives us. They would certainly have to do this for a reason, I mean, why would they give such an intriguing visual to a character that has been played off as simply a minor character created to support Ikuya’s arc and development?

Personally, I think Hiyori’s moment in the OP is a solemn one. The rain, his black umbrella, and his seemingly blank expression are all ingredients for a sort of sorrow atmosphere (and for some reason a feeling of impending doom but I really think that part is just me).

From the first picture it can be seen that he is standing in front of a cafe/possible bookstore since he is staring at what appears to be books in the window. Then we see this (beautifully animated, might I add) fantasy-like visual of what looks like Haru’s future fish merman tail. Finally, we get the classic zoom-in on his eye with a reflection of (possibly) the child version of Ikuya in his iris. This last part is what really makes me believe this moment in the OP is so important. The zooming-in on individual eyes is a tactic that is very iconic for Free!, but it is only ever used in moments that are of the utmost importance, when characters are experiencing their deepest, truest feelings. Those moments always, ALWAYS stand out in the fandom, and they often become many people’s favorite moments. Clearly Kyoani wants us to notice this, they want us to pay attention to Hiyori, but for what reason?

Of course, I still think it stands true that Hiyori is Ikuya’s “sidekick” character, and the focus of the antagonist role will remain with Ikuya, but I think Hiyori will have some of his own antagonizing to do. As I stated before, I thought Hiyori would have a similar role to Aiichirou in season 1. Ai was always there to reassure, encourage, and support Rin through his time of darkness. He was the light that prevented Rin from destroying himself completely before he finally found his resolve through the help of Haru and everyone else. That was Ai’s role, simple and straight to the point. However, Hiyori is already very different than Ai, just as Ikuya is very different from Rin. Hiyori may be a source of light in Ikuya’s life, but that doesn’t make him the same amount of pure, innocent sunshine as Ai.

My reason for that, being this:

Sure, Ai idolized Rin and thought he was the best swimmer ever, but ya boi wasn’t a goddamn KING OF SHADE. Like, holy fuck, Hiyori! That was uncalled for! I don’t remember every line from this show but I think that might be the first time anyone has called ANYONE “inferior” like damn. Like, when Hiyori interacts with Ikuya he compliments him, thinks he’s “cute”, and specifically worries about making him mad.

Not only that, but IKUYA WAS IN HIS FUCKING IRIS IN THE OPENING THEME. Then when we finally see Hiyori away from Ikuya, looking at other people, he judges them hardcore and compares them to Ikuya. I dunno about y’all, but I think ya boi is a lil obsessed. I wouldn’t say he idolizes Ikuya in the way that Ai idolizes Rin, but he certainly puts this kid on a tall ass pedestal.

I think an antagonistic Hiyori moment is in the works, because if seeing Haru and the gang again screws up Ikuya’s emotions (and possibly throws off his swimming), I don’t think Hiyori will be the type to let that slide so easily. Of course, this is all speculation and I might be looking into it too deeply, but if this moment I’m predicting is anything at all like this:

I think we ALL need to prepare ourselves.

[jiannaeloise]

ANOSCETIA

the anxiety of not knowing “the real you”

Everyone around you seems to have such a vibrant color of personality. It shines through vividly in everything they do, from the shoes they wear, to the groceries they put in their cart, to the precise wording of a text wishing you a happy birthday. You’d think it would all seem generic, but somehow every detail is quintessentially them.

How strange, then, that your own experience doesn’t seem to be tinted with any particular vibe. Mostly you feel you do what you have to do, with little opportunity for embellishment. And when there is free rein to improvise, you find yourself feeding off other people’s moods, matching their tones and energies, just trying to get along or make it through the day. Inside your head, you imagine yourself as a shade of neutral gray that just happens to reflect whatever strong colors are nearby.

Of course, your family and friends would insist you’re anything but neutral, painting you with the same broad brush you use to paint them: you’re a sunny yellow, they might say, or a chill blue, a fiery red, an innocent pink, an edgy black. They’re not necessarily wrong; you do notice a certain quality threaded through your personality, and often find yourself playing into it, because it’s a lot easier to be cheerful or crabby or crazy or boring if everyone already thinks of you that way. The trouble is, each of them only ever sees you in isolated contexts, inhabiting certain roles at certain times. If anyone tried to shadow you through an entire week, they’d be astonished to see you as a serious professional, a sexual being, a spiritual person, a story-time goofball, a nervous wreck, or the life of the party. Each of their impressions may be accurate in the moment, but each reflects only a narrow band of the full spectrum of you.

Meanwhile, you shadow yourself twenty-four hours a day, in a variety of different situations. In what context are you most like yourself? Are you more or less authentic when you lose yourself in your work, pour your heart out to a friend, or are alone, just trying to clear your mind? Even then, you know firsthand how messy your moods can be, how scattered and contradictory your thought process, how many arbitrary urges you could obey at any given time. Whenever you stumble on a new situation, it’s hard to predict which version of you is going to emerge, or which opinion is going to tumble out from the gumball machine in your head—knowing it’ll carry the sheen of truth, as if all your other thoughts didn’t exist.

It makes you wish you could restore your self-image back to its essence. Painstakingly washing away the remnants of all the times you tried to be someone you’re not. Cleaning up areas where people tried to paint over you or ripped away qualities they didn’t like. Stripping down your identity, layer by layer, through all your habits and distractions and cultural programming, so you can finally reveal your true colors for all to see. But the more you look into who you are in isolation, the more your identity dissolves into a noise of random impulses—dust on a blank canvas.

Maybe there is no single self to speak of. Maybe you’re a shifting collage of many different personas, each as authentic as the next. A kaleidoscope of ever-moving fragments, reflecting a thousand little impressions of the world around you, with flashes of different moods and vibrant clusters of quirks—but no broader pattern.

Maybe you have no true colors. You’re not some finished painting, signed and sealed in varnish. If there is a “real you,” surely it’s the mess of paint on the palette: colors swirling and mixing and playing together, perpetually unfinished, searching and striving to make something new.

[lakelandseo]

SEO Forecasting in Google Sheets

Posted by Tom.Capper

Way back in 2015, I published an article giving away a free, simple, forecasting tool, and talking through use cases for forecasting in SEO. It was a quick, effective way to see if a change to your site traffic is some kind of seasonality you can ignore, something to celebrate, or a worrying sign of traffic loss.

In short: you could enter in a series of data, and it would plot it out on a graph like the image above.

Five years later, I still get people — from former colleagues to complete strangers — asking me about this tool, and more often than not, I’m asked for a version that works directly in spreadsheets.

I find this easy to sympathize with: a spreadsheet is more flexible, easier to debug, easier to expand upon, easier to maintain, and a format that people are very familiar with.

The tradeoff when optimizing for those things is, although I’ve improved on that tool from a few years ago, I’ve still had to keep things manageable in the famously fickle programming environment that is Excel/Google Sheets. That means the template shared in this post uses a simpler, slightly less performant model than some tools with external code execution (e.g. Forecast Forge).

In this post, I’m going to give away a free template, show you how it works and how to use it, and then show you how to build your own (better?) version. (If you need a refresher on when to use forecasting in general, and concepts like confidence intervals, refer to the original article linked above.).

Types of SEO forecast

There is one thing I want to expand on before we get into the spreadsheet stuff: the different types of SEO forecast.

Broadly, I think you can put SEO forecasts into three groups:

“I’m feeling optimistic — add 20% to this year” or similar flat changes to existing figures. More complex versions might only add 20% to certain groups of pages or keywords. I think a lot of agencies use this kind of forecast in pitches, and it comes down to drawing on experience.

Keyword/CTR models, when you estimate a ranking change (or sweeping set of ranking changes), then extrapolate the resulting change in traffic from search volume and CTR data (you can see a similar methodology here). Again, more complex versions might have some basis for the ranking change (e.g. “What if we swapped places with competitor A in every keyword of group X where they currently outrank us?”).

Statistical forecast based on historical data, when you extrapolate from previous trends and seasonality to see what would happen if everything remained constant (same level of marketing activity by you and competitors, etc.).

Type two has its merits, but if you compare the likes of Ahrefs/SEMRush/Sistrix data to your own analytics, you’ll see how hard this is to generalize. As an aside, I don’t think type one is as ridiculous as it looks, but it’s not something I’ll be exploring any further in this post. In any case, the template in this post fits into type three.

What makes this an SEO forecast?

Why, nothing at all. One thing you’ll notice about my description of type three above is that it doesn’t mention anything SEO-specific. It could equally apply to direct traffic, for example. That said, there are a couple of reasons I’m suggesting this specifically as an SEO forecast:

We’re on the Moz Blog and I’m an SEO consultant.

There are better methodologies available for a lot of other channels.

I mentioned that type two above is very challenging, and this is because of the highly non-deterministic nature of SEO and the generally poor quality of detailed data in Search Console and other SEO-specific platforms. In addition, to get an accurate idea of seasonality, you’d need to have been warehousing your Search Console data for at least a couple of years.

For many other channels, high quality, detailed historic data does exist, and relationships are far more predictable, allowing more granular forecasts. For example, for paid search, the Forecast Forge tool I mentioned above builds in factors like keyword-level conversion data and cost-per-click based on your historical data, in a way that would be wildly impractical for SEO.

That said, we can still combine multiple types of forecast in the template below. For example, rather than forecasting the traffic of your site as a whole, you might forecast subfolders separately, or brand/non-brand separately, and you might then apply percentage growth to certain areas or build in anticipated ranking changes. But, we’re getting ahead of ourselves…

How to use the template

FREE TEMPLATE

The first thing you’ll need to do is make a copy (under the “File” menu in the top left, but automatic with the link I’ve included). This means you can enter your own data and play around to your heart’s content, and you can always come back and get a fresh copy later if you need one.

Then, on the first tab, you’ll notice some cells have a green or blue highlight:

You should only be changing values in the colored cells.

The blue cells in column E are basically to make sure everything ends up correctly labelled in the output. So, for example, if you’re pasting session data, or click data, or revenue data, you can set that label. Similarly, if you enter a start month of 2018-01 and 36 months of historic data, the forecast output will begin in January 2021.

On that note, it needs to be monthly data — that’s one of the tradeoffs for simplicity I mentioned earlier. You can paste up to a decade of historic monthly data into column B, starting at cell B2, but there are a couple of things you need to be careful of:

You need at least 24 months of data for the model to have a good idea of seasonality. (If there’s only one January in your historic data, and it was a traffic spike, how am I supposed to know if it was a one-off thing, or an annual thing?)

You need complete months. So if it’s March 25, 2021 when you’re reading this, the last month of data you should include is February 2021.

Make sure you also delete any leftovers of my example data in column B.

Outputs

Once you’ve done that, you can head over to the “Outputs” tab, where you’ll see something like this:

Column C is probably the one you’re interested in. Keep in mind that it’s full of formulas here, but you can copy and paste as values into another sheet, or just go to File > Download > Comma-separated values to get the raw data.

You’ll notice I’m only showing 15 months of forecast in that graph by default, and I’d recommend you do the same. As I mentioned above, the implicit assumption of a forecast is that historical context carries over, unless you explicitly include changed scenarios like COVID lockdowns into your model (more on that in a moment!). The chance of this assumption holding two or three years into the future is low, so even though I’ve provided forecast values further into the future, you should keep that in mind.

The upper and lower bounds shown are 95% confidence intervals — again, you can recap on what that means in my previous post if you so wish.

Advanced use cases

You may by now have noticed the “Advanced” tab:

Although I said I wanted to keep this simple, I felt that given everything that happened in 2020, many people would need to incorporate major external factors into their model.

In the example above, I’ve filled in column B with a variable for whether or not the UK was under COVID lockdown. I’ve used “0.5” to represent that we entered lockdown halfway through March.

You can probably make a better go of this for the relevant factors for your business, but there are a few important things to keep in mind with this tab:

It’s fine to leave it completely untouched if you don’t want to add these extra variables.

Go from left to right — it’s fine to leave column C blank if you’re using column B, but it’s not fine to leave B blank if you’re using C.

If you’re using a “dummy” variable (e.g. “1” for something being active), you need to make sure you fill in the 0s in other cells for at least the period of your historic data.

You can enter future values — for example, if you predict a COVID lockdown in March 2021 (you bastard!), you can enter something in that cell so it’s incorporated into the forecast.

If you don’t enter future values, the model will predict based on this number being zero in the future. So if you’ve entered “branded PPC active” as a dummy variable for historic data, and then left it blank for future periods, the model will assume you have branded PPC turned off in the future.

Adding too much data here for too few historic periods will result in something called “overfit” — I don’t want to get into detail on this, which is why this tab is called “Advanced”, but try not to get carried away.

Here’s some example use cases of this tab for you to consider:

Enter whether branded PPC was active (0 or 1)

Enter whether you’re running TV ads or not

Enter COVID lockdowns

Enter algorithm updates that were significant to your business (one column per update)

Why are my estimates different to your old tool? Is one of them wrong?

There’s two major differences in method between this template and my old tool:

The old tool used Google’s Causal Impact library, the new template uses an Ordinary Least Squares regression.

The old tool captured non-linear trends by using time period squared as a predictive variable (e.g. month 1 = 1, month 2 = 4, month 3 = 9, etc.) and trying to fit the traffic curve to that curve. This is called a quadratic regression. The new tool captures non-linear trends by fitting each time period as a multiple of the previous time period (e.g. month 1 = X * month 2 where X can be any value). This is called an AR(1) model.

If you’re seeing a significant difference in the forecast values between the two, it almost certainly comes down to the second reason, and although it adds a little complexity, in the vast majority of cases the new technique is more realistic and flexible.

It’s also far less likely to predict zero or negative traffic in the case of a severe downwards trend, which is nice.

How does it work?

There’s a hidden tab in the template where you can take a peek, but the short version is the “LINEST()” spreadsheet formula.

The inputs I’m using are:

Dependent variables

Whatever you put as column B in the inputs tab (like traffic)

Independent variables

Linear passing of time

Previous period’s traffic

Dummy variables for 11 months (12th month is represented by the other 11 variables all being 0)

Up to three “advanced” variables

The formula then gives a series of “coefficients” as outputs, which can be multiplied with values and added together to form a prediction like:

“Time period 10” traffic = Intercept + (Time Coefficient * 10) + (Previous Period Coefficient * Period 9 traffic)

You can see in that hidden sheet I’ve labelled and color-coded a lot of the outputs from the Linest formula, which may help you to get started if you want to play around with it yourself.

Potential extensions

If you do want to play around with this yourself, here are some areas I personally have in mind for further expansion that you might find interesting:

Daily data instead of monthly, with weekly seasonality (e.g. dip every Sunday)

Built-in growth targets (e.g. enter 20% growth by end of 2021)

Richard Fergie, whose Forecast Forge tool I mentioned a couple of times above, also provided some great suggestions for improving forecast accuracy with fairly limited extra complexity:

Smooth data and avoid negative predictions in extreme cases by taking the log() of inputs, and providing an exponent of outputs (smoothing data may or may not be a good thing depending on your perspective!).

Regress on the previous 12 months, instead of using the previous 1 month + seasonality (this requires 3 years’ minimum historical data)

I may or may not include some or all of the above myself over time, but if so I’ll make sure I use the same link and make a note of it in the spreadsheet, so this article always links to the most up-to-date version.

If you’ve made it this far, what would you like to see? Let me know in the comments!

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[epackingvietnam]

SEO Forecasting in Google Sheets

Posted by Tom.Capper

Way back in 2015, I published an article giving away a free, simple, forecasting tool, and talking through use cases for forecasting in SEO. It was a quick, effective way to see if a change to your site traffic is some kind of seasonality you can ignore, something to celebrate, or a worrying sign of traffic loss.

In short: you could enter in a series of data, and it would plot it out on a graph like the image above.

Five years later, I still get people — from former colleagues to complete strangers — asking me about this tool, and more often than not, I’m asked for a version that works directly in spreadsheets.

I find this easy to sympathize with: a spreadsheet is more flexible, easier to debug, easier to expand upon, easier to maintain, and a format that people are very familiar with.

The tradeoff when optimizing for those things is, although I’ve improved on that tool from a few years ago, I’ve still had to keep things manageable in the famously fickle programming environment that is Excel/Google Sheets. That means the template shared in this post uses a simpler, slightly less performant model than some tools with external code execution (e.g. Forecast Forge).

In this post, I’m going to give away a free template, show you how it works and how to use it, and then show you how to build your own (better?) version. (If you need a refresher on when to use forecasting in general, and concepts like confidence intervals, refer to the original article linked above.).

Types of SEO forecast

There is one thing I want to expand on before we get into the spreadsheet stuff: the different types of SEO forecast.

Broadly, I think you can put SEO forecasts into three groups:

“I’m feeling optimistic — add 20% to this year” or similar flat changes to existing figures. More complex versions might only add 20% to certain groups of pages or keywords. I think a lot of agencies use this kind of forecast in pitches, and it comes down to drawing on experience.

Keyword/CTR models, when you estimate a ranking change (or sweeping set of ranking changes), then extrapolate the resulting change in traffic from search volume and CTR data (you can see a similar methodology here). Again, more complex versions might have some basis for the ranking change (e.g. “What if we swapped places with competitor A in every keyword of group X where they currently outrank us?”).

Statistical forecast based on historical data, when you extrapolate from previous trends and seasonality to see what would happen if everything remained constant (same level of marketing activity by you and competitors, etc.).

Type two has its merits, but if you compare the likes of Ahrefs/SEMRush/Sistrix data to your own analytics, you’ll see how hard this is to generalize. As an aside, I don’t think type one is as ridiculous as it looks, but it’s not something I’ll be exploring any further in this post. In any case, the template in this post fits into type three.

What makes this an SEO forecast?

Why, nothing at all. One thing you’ll notice about my description of type three above is that it doesn’t mention anything SEO-specific. It could equally apply to direct traffic, for example. That said, there are a couple of reasons I’m suggesting this specifically as an SEO forecast:

We’re on the Moz Blog and I’m an SEO consultant.

There are better methodologies available for a lot of other channels.

I mentioned that type two above is very challenging, and this is because of the highly non-deterministic nature of SEO and the generally poor quality of detailed data in Search Console and other SEO-specific platforms. In addition, to get an accurate idea of seasonality, you’d need to have been warehousing your Search Console data for at least a couple of years.

For many other channels, high quality, detailed historic data does exist, and relationships are far more predictable, allowing more granular forecasts. For example, for paid search, the Forecast Forge tool I mentioned above builds in factors like keyword-level conversion data and cost-per-click based on your historical data, in a way that would be wildly impractical for SEO.

That said, we can still combine multiple types of forecast in the template below. For example, rather than forecasting the traffic of your site as a whole, you might forecast subfolders separately, or brand/non-brand separately, and you might then apply percentage growth to certain areas or build in anticipated ranking changes. But, we’re getting ahead of ourselves…

How to use the template

FREE TEMPLATE

The first thing you’ll need to do is make a copy (under the “File” menu in the top left, but automatic with the link I’ve included). This means you can enter your own data and play around to your heart’s content, and you can always come back and get a fresh copy later if you need one.

Then, on the first tab, you’ll notice some cells have a green or blue highlight:

You should only be changing values in the colored cells.

The blue cells in column E are basically to make sure everything ends up correctly labelled in the output. So, for example, if you’re pasting session data, or click data, or revenue data, you can set that label. Similarly, if you enter a start month of 2018-01 and 36 months of historic data, the forecast output will begin in January 2021.

On that note, it needs to be monthly data — that’s one of the tradeoffs for simplicity I mentioned earlier. You can paste up to a decade of historic monthly data into column B, starting at cell B2, but there are a couple of things you need to be careful of:

You need at least 24 months of data for the model to have a good idea of seasonality. (If there’s only one January in your historic data, and it was a traffic spike, how am I supposed to know if it was a one-off thing, or an annual thing?)

You need complete months. So if it’s March 25, 2021 when you’re reading this, the last month of data you should include is February 2021.

Make sure you also delete any leftovers of my example data in column B.

Outputs

Once you’ve done that, you can head over to the “Outputs” tab, where you’ll see something like this:

Column C is probably the one you’re interested in. Keep in mind that it’s full of formulas here, but you can copy and paste as values into another sheet, or just go to File > Download > Comma-separated values to get the raw data.

You’ll notice I’m only showing 15 months of forecast in that graph by default, and I’d recommend you do the same. As I mentioned above, the implicit assumption of a forecast is that historical context carries over, unless you explicitly include changed scenarios like COVID lockdowns into your model (more on that in a moment!). The chance of this assumption holding two or three years into the future is low, so even though I’ve provided forecast values further into the future, you should keep that in mind.

The upper and lower bounds shown are 95% confidence intervals — again, you can recap on what that means in my previous post if you so wish.

Advanced use cases

You may by now have noticed the “Advanced” tab:

Although I said I wanted to keep this simple, I felt that given everything that happened in 2020, many people would need to incorporate major external factors into their model.

In the example above, I’ve filled in column B with a variable for whether or not the UK was under COVID lockdown. I’ve used “0.5” to represent that we entered lockdown halfway through March.

You can probably make a better go of this for the relevant factors for your business, but there are a few important things to keep in mind with this tab:

It’s fine to leave it completely untouched if you don’t want to add these extra variables.

Go from left to right — it’s fine to leave column C blank if you’re using column B, but it’s not fine to leave B blank if you’re using C.

If you’re using a “dummy” variable (e.g. “1” for something being active), you need to make sure you fill in the 0s in other cells for at least the period of your historic data.

You can enter future values — for example, if you predict a COVID lockdown in March 2021 (you bastard!), you can enter something in that cell so it’s incorporated into the forecast.

If you don’t enter future values, the model will predict based on this number being zero in the future. So if you’ve entered “branded PPC active” as a dummy variable for historic data, and then left it blank for future periods, the model will assume you have branded PPC turned off in the future.

Adding too much data here for too few historic periods will result in something called “overfit” — I don’t want to get into detail on this, which is why this tab is called “Advanced”, but try not to get carried away.

Here’s some example use cases of this tab for you to consider:

Enter whether branded PPC was active (0 or 1)

Enter whether you’re running TV ads or not

Enter COVID lockdowns

Enter algorithm updates that were significant to your business (one column per update)

Why are my estimates different to your old tool? Is one of them wrong?

There’s two major differences in method between this template and my old tool:

The old tool used Google’s Causal Impact library, the new template uses an Ordinary Least Squares regression.

The old tool captured non-linear trends by using time period squared as a predictive variable (e.g. month 1 = 1, month 2 = 4, month 3 = 9, etc.) and trying to fit the traffic curve to that curve. This is called a quadratic regression. The new tool captures non-linear trends by fitting each time period as a multiple of the previous time period (e.g. month 1 = X * month 2 where X can be any value). This is called an AR(1) model.

If you’re seeing a significant difference in the forecast values between the two, it almost certainly comes down to the second reason, and although it adds a little complexity, in the vast majority of cases the new technique is more realistic and flexible.

It’s also far less likely to predict zero or negative traffic in the case of a severe downwards trend, which is nice.

How does it work?

There’s a hidden tab in the template where you can take a peek, but the short version is the “LINEST()” spreadsheet formula.

The inputs I’m using are:

Dependent variables

Whatever you put as column B in the inputs tab (like traffic)

Independent variables

Linear passing of time

Previous period’s traffic

Dummy variables for 11 months (12th month is represented by the other 11 variables all being 0)

Up to three “advanced” variables

The formula then gives a series of “coefficients” as outputs, which can be multiplied with values and added together to form a prediction like:

“Time period 10” traffic = Intercept + (Time Coefficient * 10) + (Previous Period Coefficient * Period 9 traffic)

You can see in that hidden sheet I’ve labelled and color-coded a lot of the outputs from the Linest formula, which may help you to get started if you want to play around with it yourself.

Potential extensions

If you do want to play around with this yourself, here are some areas I personally have in mind for further expansion that you might find interesting:

Daily data instead of monthly, with weekly seasonality (e.g. dip every Sunday)

Built-in growth targets (e.g. enter 20% growth by end of 2021)

Richard Fergie, whose Forecast Forge tool I mentioned a couple of times above, also provided some great suggestions for improving forecast accuracy with fairly limited extra complexity:

Smooth data and avoid negative predictions in extreme cases by taking the log() of inputs, and providing an exponent of outputs (smoothing data may or may not be a good thing depending on your perspective!).

Regress on the previous 12 months, instead of using the previous 1 month + seasonality (this requires 3 years’ minimum historical data)

I may or may not include some or all of the above myself over time, but if so I’ll make sure I use the same link and make a note of it in the spreadsheet, so this article always links to the most up-to-date version.

If you’ve made it this far, what would you like to see? Let me know in the comments!

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

#túi_giấy_epacking_việt_nam #túi_giấy_epacking #in_túi_giấy_giá_rẻ #in_túi_giấy #epackingvietnam #tuigiayepacking

[bfxenon]

SEO Forecasting in Google Sheets

Posted by Tom.Capper

Way back in 2015, I published an article giving away a free, simple, forecasting tool, and talking through use cases for forecasting in SEO. It was a quick, effective way to see if a change to your site traffic is some kind of seasonality you can ignore, something to celebrate, or a worrying sign of traffic loss.

In short: you could enter in a series of data, and it would plot it out on a graph like the image above.

Five years later, I still get people — from former colleagues to complete strangers — asking me about this tool, and more often than not, I’m asked for a version that works directly in spreadsheets.

I find this easy to sympathize with: a spreadsheet is more flexible, easier to debug, easier to expand upon, easier to maintain, and a format that people are very familiar with.

The tradeoff when optimizing for those things is, although I’ve improved on that tool from a few years ago, I’ve still had to keep things manageable in the famously fickle programming environment that is Excel/Google Sheets. That means the template shared in this post uses a simpler, slightly less performant model than some tools with external code execution (e.g. Forecast Forge).

In this post, I’m going to give away a free template, show you how it works and how to use it, and then show you how to build your own (better?) version. (If you need a refresher on when to use forecasting in general, and concepts like confidence intervals, refer to the original article linked above.).

Types of SEO forecast

There is one thing I want to expand on before we get into the spreadsheet stuff: the different types of SEO forecast.

Broadly, I think you can put SEO forecasts into three groups:

“I’m feeling optimistic — add 20% to this year” or similar flat changes to existing figures. More complex versions might only add 20% to certain groups of pages or keywords. I think a lot of agencies use this kind of forecast in pitches, and it comes down to drawing on experience.

Keyword/CTR models, when you estimate a ranking change (or sweeping set of ranking changes), then extrapolate the resulting change in traffic from search volume and CTR data (you can see a similar methodology here). Again, more complex versions might have some basis for the ranking change (e.g. “What if we swapped places with competitor A in every keyword of group X where they currently outrank us?”).

Statistical forecast based on historical data, when you extrapolate from previous trends and seasonality to see what would happen if everything remained constant (same level of marketing activity by you and competitors, etc.).

Type two has its merits, but if you compare the likes of Ahrefs/SEMRush/Sistrix data to your own analytics, you’ll see how hard this is to generalize. As an aside, I don’t think type one is as ridiculous as it looks, but it’s not something I’ll be exploring any further in this post. In any case, the template in this post fits into type three.

What makes this an SEO forecast?

Why, nothing at all. One thing you’ll notice about my description of type three above is that it doesn’t mention anything SEO-specific. It could equally apply to direct traffic, for example. That said, there are a couple of reasons I’m suggesting this specifically as an SEO forecast:

We’re on the Moz Blog and I’m an SEO consultant.

There are better methodologies available for a lot of other channels.

I mentioned that type two above is very challenging, and this is because of the highly non-deterministic nature of SEO and the generally poor quality of detailed data in Search Console and other SEO-specific platforms. In addition, to get an accurate idea of seasonality, you’d need to have been warehousing your Search Console data for at least a couple of years.

For many other channels, high quality, detailed historic data does exist, and relationships are far more predictable, allowing more granular forecasts. For example, for paid search, the Forecast Forge tool I mentioned above builds in factors like keyword-level conversion data and cost-per-click based on your historical data, in a way that would be wildly impractical for SEO.

That said, we can still combine multiple types of forecast in the template below. For example, rather than forecasting the traffic of your site as a whole, you might forecast subfolders separately, or brand/non-brand separately, and you might then apply percentage growth to certain areas or build in anticipated ranking changes. But, we’re getting ahead of ourselves…

How to use the template

FREE TEMPLATE

The first thing you’ll need to do is make a copy (under the “File” menu in the top left, but automatic with the link I’ve included). This means you can enter your own data and play around to your heart’s content, and you can always come back and get a fresh copy later if you need one.

Then, on the first tab, you’ll notice some cells have a green or blue highlight:

You should only be changing values in the colored cells.

The blue cells in column E are basically to make sure everything ends up correctly labelled in the output. So, for example, if you’re pasting session data, or click data, or revenue data, you can set that label. Similarly, if you enter a start month of 2018-01 and 36 months of historic data, the forecast output will begin in January 2021.

On that note, it needs to be monthly data — that’s one of the tradeoffs for simplicity I mentioned earlier. You can paste up to a decade of historic monthly data into column B, starting at cell B2, but there are a couple of things you need to be careful of:

You need at least 24 months of data for the model to have a good idea of seasonality. (If there’s only one January in your historic data, and it was a traffic spike, how am I supposed to know if it was a one-off thing, or an annual thing?)

You need complete months. So if it’s March 25, 2021 when you’re reading this, the last month of data you should include is February 2021.

Make sure you also delete any leftovers of my example data in column B.

Outputs

Once you’ve done that, you can head over to the “Outputs” tab, where you’ll see something like this:

Column C is probably the one you’re interested in. Keep in mind that it’s full of formulas here, but you can copy and paste as values into another sheet, or just go to File > Download > Comma-separated values to get the raw data.

You’ll notice I’m only showing 15 months of forecast in that graph by default, and I’d recommend you do the same. As I mentioned above, the implicit assumption of a forecast is that historical context carries over, unless you explicitly include changed scenarios like COVID lockdowns into your model (more on that in a moment!). The chance of this assumption holding two or three years into the future is low, so even though I’ve provided forecast values further into the future, you should keep that in mind.

The upper and lower bounds shown are 95% confidence intervals — again, you can recap on what that means in my previous post if you so wish.

Advanced use cases

You may by now have noticed the “Advanced” tab:

Although I said I wanted to keep this simple, I felt that given everything that happened in 2020, many people would need to incorporate major external factors into their model.

In the example above, I’ve filled in column B with a variable for whether or not the UK was under COVID lockdown. I’ve used “0.5” to represent that we entered lockdown halfway through March.

You can probably make a better go of this for the relevant factors for your business, but there are a few important things to keep in mind with this tab:

It’s fine to leave it completely untouched if you don’t want to add these extra variables.

Go from left to right — it’s fine to leave column C blank if you’re using column B, but it’s not fine to leave B blank if you’re using C.

If you’re using a “dummy” variable (e.g. “1” for something being active), you need to make sure you fill in the 0s in other cells for at least the period of your historic data.

You can enter future values — for example, if you predict a COVID lockdown in March 2021 (you bastard!), you can enter something in that cell so it’s incorporated into the forecast.

If you don’t enter future values, the model will predict based on this number being zero in the future. So if you’ve entered “branded PPC active” as a dummy variable for historic data, and then left it blank for future periods, the model will assume you have branded PPC turned off in the future.

Adding too much data here for too few historic periods will result in something called “overfit” — I don’t want to get into detail on this, which is why this tab is called “Advanced”, but try not to get carried away.

Here’s some example use cases of this tab for you to consider:

Enter whether branded PPC was active (0 or 1)

Enter whether you’re running TV ads or not

Enter COVID lockdowns

Enter algorithm updates that were significant to your business (one column per update)

Why are my estimates different to your old tool? Is one of them wrong?

There’s two major differences in method between this template and my old tool:

The old tool used Google’s Causal Impact library, the new template uses an Ordinary Least Squares regression.

The old tool captured non-linear trends by using time period squared as a predictive variable (e.g. month 1 = 1, month 2 = 4, month 3 = 9, etc.) and trying to fit the traffic curve to that curve. This is called a quadratic regression. The new tool captures non-linear trends by fitting each time period as a multiple of the previous time period (e.g. month 1 = X * month 2 where X can be any value). This is called an AR(1) model.

If you’re seeing a significant difference in the forecast values between the two, it almost certainly comes down to the second reason, and although it adds a little complexity, in the vast majority of cases the new technique is more realistic and flexible.

It’s also far less likely to predict zero or negative traffic in the case of a severe downwards trend, which is nice.

How does it work?

There’s a hidden tab in the template where you can take a peek, but the short version is the “LINEST()” spreadsheet formula.

The inputs I’m using are:

Dependent variables

Whatever you put as column B in the inputs tab (like traffic)

Independent variables

Linear passing of time

Previous period’s traffic

Dummy variables for 11 months (12th month is represented by the other 11 variables all being 0)

Up to three “advanced” variables

The formula then gives a series of “coefficients” as outputs, which can be multiplied with values and added together to form a prediction like:

“Time period 10” traffic = Intercept + (Time Coefficient * 10) + (Previous Period Coefficient * Period 9 traffic)

You can see in that hidden sheet I’ve labelled and color-coded a lot of the outputs from the Linest formula, which may help you to get started if you want to play around with it yourself.

Potential extensions

If you do want to play around with this yourself, here are some areas I personally have in mind for further expansion that you might find interesting:

Daily data instead of monthly, with weekly seasonality (e.g. dip every Sunday)

Built-in growth targets (e.g. enter 20% growth by end of 2021)

Richard Fergie, whose Forecast Forge tool I mentioned a couple of times above, also provided some great suggestions for improving forecast accuracy with fairly limited extra complexity:

Smooth data and avoid negative predictions in extreme cases by taking the log() of inputs, and providing an exponent of outputs (smoothing data may or may not be a good thing depending on your perspective!).

Regress on the previous 12 months, instead of using the previous 1 month + seasonality (this requires 3 years’ minimum historical data)

I may or may not include some or all of the above myself over time, but if so I’ll make sure I use the same link and make a note of it in the spreadsheet, so this article always links to the most up-to-date version.

If you’ve made it this far, what would you like to see? Let me know in the comments!

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

[nutrifami]

SEO Forecasting in Google Sheets

Posted by Tom.Capper

Way back in 2015, I published an article giving away a free, simple, forecasting tool, and talking through use cases for forecasting in SEO. It was a quick, effective way to see if a change to your site traffic is some kind of seasonality you can ignore, something to celebrate, or a worrying sign of traffic loss.

In short: you could enter in a series of data, and it would plot it out on a graph like the image above.

Five years later, I still get people — from former colleagues to complete strangers — asking me about this tool, and more often than not, I’m asked for a version that works directly in spreadsheets.

I find this easy to sympathize with: a spreadsheet is more flexible, easier to debug, easier to expand upon, easier to maintain, and a format that people are very familiar with.

The tradeoff when optimizing for those things is, although I’ve improved on that tool from a few years ago, I’ve still had to keep things manageable in the famously fickle programming environment that is Excel/Google Sheets. That means the template shared in this post uses a simpler, slightly less performant model than some tools with external code execution (e.g. Forecast Forge).

In this post, I’m going to give away a free template, show you how it works and how to use it, and then show you how to build your own (better?) version. (If you need a refresher on when to use forecasting in general, and concepts like confidence intervals, refer to the original article linked above.).

Types of SEO forecast

There is one thing I want to expand on before we get into the spreadsheet stuff: the different types of SEO forecast.

Broadly, I think you can put SEO forecasts into three groups:

“I’m feeling optimistic — add 20% to this year” or similar flat changes to existing figures. More complex versions might only add 20% to certain groups of pages or keywords. I think a lot of agencies use this kind of forecast in pitches, and it comes down to drawing on experience.

Keyword/CTR models, when you estimate a ranking change (or sweeping set of ranking changes), then extrapolate the resulting change in traffic from search volume and CTR data (you can see a similar methodology here). Again, more complex versions might have some basis for the ranking change (e.g. “What if we swapped places with competitor A in every keyword of group X where they currently outrank us?”).

Statistical forecast based on historical data, when you extrapolate from previous trends and seasonality to see what would happen if everything remained constant (same level of marketing activity by you and competitors, etc.).

Type two has its merits, but if you compare the likes of Ahrefs/SEMRush/Sistrix data to your own analytics, you’ll see how hard this is to generalize. As an aside, I don’t think type one is as ridiculous as it looks, but it’s not something I’ll be exploring any further in this post. In any case, the template in this post fits into type three.

What makes this an SEO forecast?

Why, nothing at all. One thing you’ll notice about my description of type three above is that it doesn’t mention anything SEO-specific. It could equally apply to direct traffic, for example. That said, there are a couple of reasons I’m suggesting this specifically as an SEO forecast:

We’re on the Moz Blog and I’m an SEO consultant.

There are better methodologies available for a lot of other channels.

I mentioned that type two above is very challenging, and this is because of the highly non-deterministic nature of SEO and the generally poor quality of detailed data in Search Console and other SEO-specific platforms. In addition, to get an accurate idea of seasonality, you’d need to have been warehousing your Search Console data for at least a couple of years.

For many other channels, high quality, detailed historic data does exist, and relationships are far more predictable, allowing more granular forecasts. For example, for paid search, the Forecast Forge tool I mentioned above builds in factors like keyword-level conversion data and cost-per-click based on your historical data, in a way that would be wildly impractical for SEO.

That said, we can still combine multiple types of forecast in the template below. For example, rather than forecasting the traffic of your site as a whole, you might forecast subfolders separately, or brand/non-brand separately, and you might then apply percentage growth to certain areas or build in anticipated ranking changes. But, we’re getting ahead of ourselves…

How to use the template

FREE TEMPLATE

The first thing you’ll need to do is make a copy (under the “File” menu in the top left, but automatic with the link I’ve included). This means you can enter your own data and play around to your heart’s content, and you can always come back and get a fresh copy later if you need one.

Then, on the first tab, you’ll notice some cells have a green or blue highlight:

You should only be changing values in the colored cells.

The blue cells in column E are basically to make sure everything ends up correctly labelled in the output. So, for example, if you’re pasting session data, or click data, or revenue data, you can set that label. Similarly, if you enter a start month of 2018-01 and 36 months of historic data, the forecast output will begin in January 2021.

On that note, it needs to be monthly data — that’s one of the tradeoffs for simplicity I mentioned earlier. You can paste up to a decade of historic monthly data into column B, starting at cell B2, but there are a couple of things you need to be careful of:

You need at least 24 months of data for the model to have a good idea of seasonality. (If there’s only one January in your historic data, and it was a traffic spike, how am I supposed to know if it was a one-off thing, or an annual thing?)

You need complete months. So if it’s March 25, 2021 when you’re reading this, the last month of data you should include is February 2021.

Make sure you also delete any leftovers of my example data in column B.

Outputs

Once you’ve done that, you can head over to the “Outputs” tab, where you’ll see something like this:

Column C is probably the one you’re interested in. Keep in mind that it’s full of formulas here, but you can copy and paste as values into another sheet, or just go to File > Download > Comma-separated values to get the raw data.

You’ll notice I’m only showing 15 months of forecast in that graph by default, and I’d recommend you do the same. As I mentioned above, the implicit assumption of a forecast is that historical context carries over, unless you explicitly include changed scenarios like COVID lockdowns into your model (more on that in a moment!). The chance of this assumption holding two or three years into the future is low, so even though I’ve provided forecast values further into the future, you should keep that in mind.

The upper and lower bounds shown are 95% confidence intervals — again, you can recap on what that means in my previous post if you so wish.

Advanced use cases

You may by now have noticed the “Advanced” tab:

Although I said I wanted to keep this simple, I felt that given everything that happened in 2020, many people would need to incorporate major external factors into their model.

In the example above, I’ve filled in column B with a variable for whether or not the UK was under COVID lockdown. I’ve used “0.5” to represent that we entered lockdown halfway through March.

You can probably make a better go of this for the relevant factors for your business, but there are a few important things to keep in mind with this tab:

It’s fine to leave it completely untouched if you don’t want to add these extra variables.

Go from left to right — it’s fine to leave column C blank if you’re using column B, but it’s not fine to leave B blank if you’re using C.

If you’re using a “dummy” variable (e.g. “1” for something being active), you need to make sure you fill in the 0s in other cells for at least the period of your historic data.

You can enter future values — for example, if you predict a COVID lockdown in March 2021 (you bastard!), you can enter something in that cell so it’s incorporated into the forecast.

If you don’t enter future values, the model will predict based on this number being zero in the future. So if you’ve entered “branded PPC active” as a dummy variable for historic data, and then left it blank for future periods, the model will assume you have branded PPC turned off in the future.

Adding too much data here for too few historic periods will result in something called “overfit” — I don’t want to get into detail on this, which is why this tab is called “Advanced”, but try not to get carried away.

Here’s some example use cases of this tab for you to consider:

Enter whether branded PPC was active (0 or 1)

Enter whether you’re running TV ads or not

Enter COVID lockdowns

Enter algorithm updates that were significant to your business (one column per update)

Why are my estimates different to your old tool? Is one of them wrong?

There’s two major differences in method between this template and my old tool:

The old tool used Google’s Causal Impact library, the new template uses an Ordinary Least Squares regression.

The old tool captured non-linear trends by using time period squared as a predictive variable (e.g. month 1 = 1, month 2 = 4, month 3 = 9, etc.) and trying to fit the traffic curve to that curve. This is called a quadratic regression. The new tool captures non-linear trends by fitting each time period as a multiple of the previous time period (e.g. month 1 = X * month 2 where X can be any value). This is called an AR(1) model.

If you’re seeing a significant difference in the forecast values between the two, it almost certainly comes down to the second reason, and although it adds a little complexity, in the vast majority of cases the new technique is more realistic and flexible.

It’s also far less likely to predict zero or negative traffic in the case of a severe downwards trend, which is nice.

How does it work?

There’s a hidden tab in the template where you can take a peek, but the short version is the “LINEST()” spreadsheet formula.

The inputs I’m using are:

Dependent variables

Whatever you put as column B in the inputs tab (like traffic)

Independent variables

Linear passing of time

Previous period’s traffic

Dummy variables for 11 months (12th month is represented by the other 11 variables all being 0)

Up to three “advanced” variables

The formula then gives a series of “coefficients” as outputs, which can be multiplied with values and added together to form a prediction like:

“Time period 10” traffic = Intercept + (Time Coefficient * 10) + (Previous Period Coefficient * Period 9 traffic)

You can see in that hidden sheet I’ve labelled and color-coded a lot of the outputs from the Linest formula, which may help you to get started if you want to play around with it yourself.

Potential extensions

If you do want to play around with this yourself, here are some areas I personally have in mind for further expansion that you might find interesting:

Daily data instead of monthly, with weekly seasonality (e.g. dip every Sunday)

Built-in growth targets (e.g. enter 20% growth by end of 2021)

Richard Fergie, whose Forecast Forge tool I mentioned a couple of times above, also provided some great suggestions for improving forecast accuracy with fairly limited extra complexity:

Smooth data and avoid negative predictions in extreme cases by taking the log() of inputs, and providing an exponent of outputs (smoothing data may or may not be a good thing depending on your perspective!).

Regress on the previous 12 months, instead of using the previous 1 month + seasonality (this requires 3 years’ minimum historical data)

I may or may not include some or all of the above myself over time, but if so I’ll make sure I use the same link and make a note of it in the spreadsheet, so this article always links to the most up-to-date version.

If you’ve made it this far, what would you like to see? Let me know in the comments!

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