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mostlysignssomeportents · 8 months ago

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Real innovation vs Silicon Valley nonsense

This is the LAST DAY to get my bestselling solarpunk utopian novel THE LOST CAUSE (2023) as a $2.99, DRM-free ebook!

If there was any area where we needed a lot of "innovation," it's in climate tech. We've already blown through numerous points-of-no-return for a habitable Earth, and the pace is accelerating.

Silicon Valley claims to be the epicenter of American innovation, but what passes for innovation in Silicon Valley is some combination of nonsense, climate-wrecking tech, and climate-wrecking nonsense tech. Forget Jeff Hammerbacher's lament about "the best minds of my generation thinking about how to make people click ads." Today's best-paid, best-trained technologists are enlisted to making boobytrapped IoT gadgets:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/05/24/record-scratch/#autoenshittification

Planet-destroying cryptocurrency scams:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/02/15/your-new-first-name/#that-dagger-tho

NFT frauds:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/02/06/crypto-copyright-%f0%9f%a4%a1%f0%9f%92%a9/

Or planet-destroying AI frauds:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/01/29/pay-no-attention/#to-the-little-man-behind-the-curtain

If that was the best "innovation" the human race had to offer, we'd be fucking doomed.

But – as Ryan Cooper writes for The American Prospect – there's a far more dynamic, consequential, useful and exciting innovation revolution underway, thanks to muscular public spending on climate tech:

https://prospect.org/environment/2024-05-30-green-energy-revolution-real-innovation/

The green energy revolution – funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act and the Science Act – is accomplishing amazing feats, which are barely registering amid the clamor of AI nonsense and other hype. I did an interview a while ago about my climate novel The Lost Cause and the interviewer wanted to know what role AI would play in resolving the climate emergency. I was momentarily speechless, then I said, "Well, I guess maybe all the energy used to train and operate models could make it much worse? What role do you think it could play?" The interviewer had no answer.

Here's brief tour of the revolution:

2023 saw 32GW of new solar energy come online in the USA (up 50% from 2022);

Wind increased from 118GW to 141GW;

Grid-scale batteries doubled in 2023 and will double again in 2024;

EV sales increased from 20,000 to 90,000/month.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/blog/2023/12/19/building-a-thriving-clean-energy-economy-in-2023-and-beyond/

The cost of clean energy is plummeting, and that's triggering other areas of innovation, like using "hot rocks" to replace fossil fuel heat (25% of overall US energy consumption):

https://rondo.com/products

Increasing our access to cheap, clean energy will require a lot of materials, and material production is very carbon intensive. Luckily, the existing supply of cheap, clean energy is fueling "green steel" production experiments:

https://www.wdam.com/2024/03/25/americas-1st-green-steel-plant-coming-perry-county-1b-federal-investment/

Cheap, clean energy also makes it possible to recover valuable minerals from aluminum production tailings, a process that doubles as site-remediation:

https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/toxic-red-mud-co2-free-iron

And while all this electrification is going to require grid upgrades, there's lots we can do with our existing grid, like power-line automation that increases capacity by 40%:

https://www.npr.org/2023/08/13/1187620367/power-grid-enhancing-technologies-climate-change

It's also going to require a lot of storage, which is why it's so exciting that we're figuring out how to turn decommissioned mines into giant batteries. During the day, excess renewable energy is channeled into raising rock-laden platforms to the top of the mine-shafts, and at night, these unspool, releasing energy that's fed into the high-availability power-lines that are already present at every mine-site:

https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/02/06/this-disused-mine-in-finland-is-being-turned-into-a-gravity-battery-to-store-renewable-ene

Why are we paying so much attention to Silicon Valley pump-and-dumps and ignoring all this incredible, potentially planet-saving, real innovation? Cooper cites a plausible explanation from the Apperceptive newsletter:

https://buttondown.email/apperceptive/archive/destructive-investing-and-the-siren-song-of/

Silicon Valley is the land of low-capital, low-labor growth. Software development requires fewer people than infrastructure and hard goods manufacturing, both to get started and to run as an ongoing operation. Silicon Valley is the place where you get rich without creating jobs. It's run by investors who hate the idea of paying people. That's why AI is so exciting for Silicon Valley types: it lets them fantasize about making humans obsolete. A company without employees is a company without labor issues, without messy co-determination fights, without any moral consideration for others. It's the natural progression for an industry that started by misclassifying the workers in its buildings as "contractors," and then graduated to pretending that millions of workers were actually "independent small businesses."

It's also the natural next step for an industry that hates workers so much that it will pretend that their work is being done by robots, and then outsource the labor itself to distant Indian call-centers (no wonder Indian techies joke that "AI" stands for "absent Indians"):

https://pluralistic.net/2024/05/17/fake-it-until-you-dont-make-it/#twenty-one-seconds

Contrast this with climate tech: this is a profoundly physical kind of technology. It is labor intensive. It is skilled. The workers who perform it have power, both because they are so far from their employers' direct oversight and because these fed-funded sectors are more likely to be unionized than Silicon Valley shops. Moreover, climate tech is capital intensive. All of those workers are out there moving stuff around: solar panels, wires, batteries.

Climate tech is infrastructural. As Deb Chachra writes in her must-read 2023 book How Infrastructure Works, infrastructure is a gift we give to our descendants. Infrastructure projects rarely pay for themselves during the lives of the people who decide to build them:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/10/17/care-work/#charismatic-megaprojects

Climate tech also produces gigantic, diffused, uncapturable benefits. The "social cost of carbon" is a measure that seeks to capture how much we all pay as polluters despoil our shared world. It includes the direct health impacts of burning fossil fuels, and the indirect costs of wildfires and extreme weather events. The "social savings" of climate tech are massive:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/05/climate-and-health-benefits-of-wind-and-solar-dwarf-all-subsidies/

For every MWh of renewable power produced, we save $100 in social carbon costs. That's $100 worth of people not sickening and dying from pollution, $100 worth of homes and habitats not burning down or disappearing under floodwaters. All told, US renewables have delivered $250,000,000,000 (one quarter of one trillion dollars) in social carbon savings over the past four years:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/05/climate-and-health-benefits-of-wind-and-solar-dwarf-all-subsidies/

In other words, climate tech is unselfish tech. It's a gift to the future and to the broad public. It shares its spoils with workers. It requires public action. By contrast, Silicon Valley is greedy tech that is relentlessly focused on the shortest-term returns that can be extracted with the least share going to labor. It also requires massive public investment, but it also totally committed to giving as little back to the public as is possible.

No wonder America's richest and most powerful people are lining up to endorse and fund Trump:

https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2024-05-30-democracy-deshmocracy-mega-financiers-flocking-to-trump/

Silicon Valley epitomizes Stafford Beer's motto that "the purpose of a system is what it does." If Silicon Valley produces nothing but planet-wrecking nonsense, grifty scams, and planet-wrecking, nonsensical scams, then these are all features of the tech sector, not bugs.

As Anil Dash writes:

Driving change requires us to make the machine want something else. If the purpose of a system is what it does, and we don’t like what it does, then we have to change the system.

https://www.anildash.com/2024/05/29/systems-the-purpose-of-a-system/

To give climate tech the attention, excitement, and political will it deserves, we need to recalibrate our understanding of the world. We need to have object permanence. We need to remember just how few people were actually using cryptocurrency during the bubble and apply that understanding to AI hype. Only 2% of Britons surveyed in a recent study use AI tools:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511x4g7x7jo

If we want our tech companies to do good, we have to understand that their ground state is to create planet-wrecking nonsense, grifty scams, and planet-wrecking, nonsensical scams. We need to make these companies small enough to fail, small enough to jail, and small enough to care:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/04/04/teach-me-how-to-shruggie/#kagi

We need to hold companies responsible, and we need to change the microeconomics of the board room, to make it easier for tech workers who want to do good to shout down the scammers, nonsense-peddlers and grifters:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/07/28/microincentives-and-enshittification/

Yesterday, a federal judge ruled that the FTC could hold Amazon executives personally liable for the decision to trick people into signing up for Prime, and for making the unsubscribe-from-Prime process into a Kafka-as-a-service nightmare:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/05/amazon-execs-may-be-personally-liable-for-tricking-users-into-prime-sign-ups/

Imagine how powerful a precedent this could set. The Amazon employees who vociferously objected to their bosses' decision to make Prime as confusing as possible could have raised the objection that doing this could end up personally costing those bosses millions of dollars in fines:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/09/03/big-tech-cant-stop-telling-on-itself/

We need to make climate tech, not Big Tech, the center of our scrutiny and will. The climate emergency is so terrifying as to be nearly unponderable. Science fiction writers are increasingly being called upon to try to frame this incomprehensible risk in human terms. SF writer (and biologist) Peter Watts's conversation with evolutionary biologist Dan Brooks is an eye-opener:

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/the-collapse-is-coming-will-humanity-adapt/

They draw a distinction between "sustainability" meaning "what kind of technological fixes can we come up with that will allow us to continue to do business as usual without paying a penalty for it?" and sustainability meaning, "what changes in behavior will allow us to save ourselves with the technology that is possible?"

Writing about the Watts/Brooks dialog for Naked Capitalism, Yves Smith invokes William Gibson's The Peripheral:

With everything stumbling deeper into a ditch of shit, history itself become a slaughterhouse, science had started popping. Not all at once, no one big heroic thing, but there were cleaner, cheaper energy sources, more effective ways to get carbon out of the air, new drugs that did what antibiotics had done before…. Ways to print food that required much less in the way of actual food to begin with. So everything, however deeply fucked in general, was lit increasingly by the new, by things that made people blink and sit up, but then the rest of it would just go on, deeper into the ditch. A progress accompanied by constant violence, he said, by sufferings unimaginable.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/05/preparing-for-collapse-why-the-focus-on-climate-energy-sustainability-is-destructive.html

Gibson doesn't think this is likely, mind, and even if it's attainable, it will come amidst "unimaginable suffering."

But the universe of possible technologies is quite large. As Chachra points out in How Infrastructure Works, we could give every person on Earth a Canadian's energy budget (like an American's, but colder), by capturing a mere 0.4% of the solar radiation that reaches the Earth's surface every day. Doing this will require heroic amounts of material and labor, especially if we're going to do it without destroying the planet through material extraction and manufacturing.

These are the questions that we should be concerning ourselves with: what behavioral changes will allow us to realize cheap, abundant, green energy? What "innovations" will our society need to focus on the things we need, rather than the scams and nonsense that creates Silicon Valley fortunes?

How can we use planning, and solidarity, and codetermination to usher in the kind of tech that makes it possible for us to get through the climate bottleneck with as little death and destruction as possible? How can we use enforcement, discernment, and labor rights to thwart the enshittificatory impulses of Silicon Valley's biggest assholes?

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/05/30/posiwid/#social-cost-of-carbon

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wumblr · 8 months ago

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okay

For decades, nuclear power has been the largest source of clean energy in the United States, accounting for 19% of total energy produced last year

false. first sentence. off to a great start. you may notice this is a 2022 chart but i can tell you the only new reactors started since then are vogtle 3 and 4 (you may notice that's not a new power plant but new reactors at an existing plant), years late and $17b over budget, vogtle as a whole produces 1.1gwh, we use about 29 million annually. point being: it has not risen to 19%, the last reactor since vogtle was watts bar in 2016 and since then we've decommissioned 14 of them

The industry directly employs nearly 60,000 workers in good paying jobs

weirdly low estimate, almost by half

maintains these jobs for decades

"maintains" is doing a lot of work here, does that include toxic exposure payouts? because they are still fighting pretty hard to get those in the world's first nuclear contamination site, hanford

and supports hundreds of thousands of other workers

✅ true! 475,000 according to the NEI link above

In the midst of transformational changes taking place throughout the U.S. energy system

sure

the Biden-Harris Administration is continuing to build on President Biden’s unprecedented goal of a carbon free electricity sector by 2035

have they developed carbon free cement yet? (yes.) at scale? (no.) are we just not counting construction emissions because they're one-time emissions investments or how does this work exactly, i would love to know because i think we're also not counting emissions from waste transport to longterm storage because we haven't started doing that. anyway they've built a train for it even though we don't have a storage site so that's umm. that's uhh. fine i'm sure

while also ensuring that consumers across the country have access to affordable, reliable electric power

i guess you can still say "across the country" if you exclude texas as an outlier

and creating good-paying clean energy jobs.

i guess you can still call them good paying clean energy jobs if everybody who mines and refines the uranium dies of cancer because you just pulled out of the largest disarmament program in history due to it being geopolitically inadmissible (for russia... to continue... selling us the uranium from decommissioning...? i'm still trying to figure out the optics of that one but anyway as i have previously stated we didn't actually stop buying it in cases where it's "liable to cause supply chain issues")

Alongside renewable power sources like wind and solar, a new generation of nuclear reactors is now capturing the attention of a wide range of stakeholders

weird way to say that

for nuclear energy’s ability to produce clean, reliable energy and meet the needs of a fast-growing economy, driven by President Biden’s Investing in America agenda and manufacturing boom.

this is a carrier sentence to inject the president's name, but i would like to question which sectors of the growing economy are driving the most energy demand because i'm sure there are no nasty truths being elided there (it's computing)

The Administration recognizes that decarbonizing our power system, which accounts for a quarter of all the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions, represents a pivotal challenge requiring all the expertise and ingenuity our nation can deliver.

it's time once again for... the energy flow sankey chart! the reason the power system accounts for a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions is in no small part because 67% of it is lost to waste heat. has the nation's expertise and ingenuity started working on that yet

The Biden-Harris Administration is today hosting a White House Summit on Domestic Nuclear Deployment, highlighting the collective progress being made from across the public and private sectors

oh boy! a summit! talking about it is the same as doing it

Under President Biden’s leadership, the Administration has taken a number of actions to strengthen our nation’s energy and economic security by reducing – and putting us on the path to eliminating – our reliance on Russian uranium for civil nuclear power and building a new supply chain for nuclear fuel

gosh, i got ahead of myself and already criticized both of those things

including: signing on to last year’s multi-country declaration at COP28 to triple nuclear energy capacity globally by 2050

everybody criticized that

developing new reactor designs

which ones, the bill gates project that just got cancelled because utilities pulled out (edit: that's nuscale, the bill gates project is terrapower), the rolls royce submarine, or the one that just got regulatory approval (edit: this is also nuscale)

extending the service lives of existing nuclear reactors

yep! you sure showed the embrittlement at diablo canyon by doing nothing about it

and growing the momentum behind new deployments

nonsense clause, but it has this really ominous undercurrent due to its vagueness

Recognizing the importance of both the existing U.S. nuclear fleet and continued build out of large nuclear power plants, the U.S. is also taking steps to mitigate project risks associated with large nuclear builds and position U.S. industry to support an aggressive deployment target.

this one is not nonsense but they can't just out and out say "we are deregulating the industry because opening the process for public comment is most often the thing that slows it down" because then somebody might realize they're bulldozing ahead no matter what any constituent says, does, or actually wants

To help drive reactor deployment while ensuring ratepayers and project stakeholders are better protected, theAdministration is announcing today the creation of a Nuclear Power Project Management and Delivery working group that will draw on leading experts from across the nuclear and megaproject construction industry to help identify opportunities to proactively mitigate sources of cost and schedule overrun risk

i'm sure a revolving door working group packed with industry insiders can solve this without compromising their commitment to the profit motive, not that it particularly matters since the cost is passed on to the consumer in the form of fees on the electric bill

The United States Army is also announcing that it will soon release a Request for Information to inform a deployment program for advanced reactors to power multiple Army sites in the United States

good god... that is a fresh nightmare i did not see coming

Additionally, the Department of Energy released today a new primer highlighting the expected enhanced safety of advanced nuclear reactors

"expected" really serves to demonstrate several points i've made

i'm going to stop going line by line here because i know this is already too boring and long for anyone to read this far, unless anybody wants to know what i think about parts 50, 52, and 53 of the NRC licensing guidance -- which many of you have very clearly stated over the years that you don't -- and while i do want to acknowledge that it does go into more detail and even answer some of the questions i raised (vogtle comes up, diablo canyon comes up, a list of which SMR designs is given, or at least a list of the companies responsible for them),

what i would like to focus on is one conspicuous absence:

the reason we need a new fleet of reactors is because they are an essential part of the bomb production chain. they are the beginning of the refinement process, and we cannot carry out the plan (already underway) to replace the minutemen missiles currently in silos with sentinel missiles without significant new construction. we cannot start the president's desired wars with russia and china without the new sentinels. he's not going to be the one to carry this out, he's ensuring whoever is his successor in about 2030 or more likely 2040 will be armed to do so. limited amount of time left to prevent that

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thoughtportal · 4 months ago

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Microsoft deal would reopen Three Mile Island nuclear plant to power AI

Pennsylvania’s dormant Three Mile Island nuclear plant would be brought back to life to feed the voracious energy needs of Microsoft under an unprecedented deal announced Friday in which the tech giant would buy 100 percent of its power for 20 years.

The restart of Three Mile Island, the site of the worst nuclear accident in U.S. history, would mark a bold advance in the tech industry’s quest to find enough electric power to support its boom in artificial intelligence.The plant, which Pennsylvanians thought hadclosed for good in 2019 amid financial strain, would come back online by 2028 under the agreement, according toplant owner Constellation Energy.

If approved by regulators, Three Mile Island would provide Microsoft with the energy equivalent it takes to power 800,000 homes, or 835 megawatts. Never before has a U.S. nuclear plant come back into service after being decommissioned, and never before has all of a single commercial nuclear power plant’s output been allocated to a single customer.

But the economics of both the power and computing industries are changing rapidly. Tech companies are scouring the nation for power that is both reliable and helps them meet their pledge to fuel AI development with zero emissions electricity — driving a nuclear power revival.

“The energy industry cannot be the reason China or Russia beats us in AI,” said Joseph Dominguez, chief executive of Constellation. “This plant never should have been allowed to shut down, ... It will produce as much clean energy as all of the renewables [wind and solar] built in Pennsylvania over the last 30 years.”

Follow Climate & environment

The four-year restart plan would cost Constellation about $1.6 billion, he said, and is dependent on federal subsidies in the form of tax breaks earmarked for nuclear power in the 2022 Inflation Recovery Act.

Constellation will also need to clear steep regulatory hurdles, including intensive safety inspections from the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which has never before authorized the reopening of a plant. The deal also raises thorny questions about the federal tax breaks, as the energy from the plant would all be produced for a single private company rather than a utility serving entire communities.

A partial reactor meltdown at Three Mile Island in 1979 sent the nation into a panic and the nuclear industry reeling. The unit that Constellation plans to fire back up sits adjacent to the one that malfunctioned 45 years ago.

Constellation and Microsoft conceived the novel deal to solve a deepening energy problem. The sprawling data centers Microsoft and other digital giants need have become so big and energy-intensive that they are straining existing power supplies across the nation.

Constellation disclosed months ago that it was exploring options for restarting Three Mile Island, which sits along the Susquehanna River. The news was met with mixed reactions. Nuclear safety advocates expressed alarm. But some community leaders welcomed the development, seeing potential to revive an economic anchor in a region beset with financial hardship. A study funded by the Pennsylvania Building & Construction Trades Council says a reopening would create 3,400 jobs at the plant and in businesses serving it and its workers, and generate $3 billion in state and federal taxes.

The tax breaks in the Inflation Recovery Act are crucial to making the deal economically feasible, according to Constellation. They provide a credit for every megawatt hour of nuclear energy produced.

Constellation declined to provide details about its contract with Microsoft or disclose the value of tax credits. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has said in the past that federal subsidies could cut the cost of bringing a new plant on line by as much as half.

The announcement of the Microsoft deal follows an agreement Amazon reached with Talen Energy to purchase power produced by the financially troubled Susquehanna nuclear plant for a planned data center campus in Pennsylvania. That arrangement is running into snags with regulators, as regional utilities express concern that their ratepayers will be saddled with the bill for the power grid updates needed.

Amazon’s plan also raised concerns among clean-energy advocates that tech companies are shifting from driving the transition to clean energy to elbowing others out of it by claiming such large amounts of available clean electricity for themselves.

Dominguez argues that the Three Mile Island case is an example of how Silicon Valley’s outside-the-box thinking will help stabilize the power grid for everyone. The power from the plant will not go directly to Microsoft facilities but into the overtaxed regional power grid that serves 65 million people across 13 states and the District of Columbia, called the PJM Interconnection.

Nuclear power is considered “clean” because unlike burning natural gas or coal to produce electricity, it does not create greenhouse gas emissions. The plants are expensive to build or restart, and industry still has no long-term solution for spent but highly radioactive uranium fuel rods.

“This agreement is a major milestone in Microsoft’s efforts to help decarbonize the grid in support of our commitment to become carbon negative,” said a statement from Bobby Hollis, vice president of energy at Microsoft.

Dominguez said other ratepayers on the PJM grid will not be expected to shoulder any of the costs, nor will Constellation be seeking special subsidies fromthe state of Pennsylvania.

Constellation has already been doing extensive testing at Three Mile Island.It says most of its components are ready to operate again. “The plant is in extraordinary shape,” Dominguez said.

Three Mile Island is not the only nuclear plant the industry is eager to revive. The owners of a plant in Western Michigan called Palisades are also working to bring that dormant facility back. That project was approved for a $1.5 billion federal loan guarantee. The plant owner, Holtec, says it hopes to feed nuclear energy from Palisades into the region’s power grid by late next year.

The Palisades effort came about at the urging of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), as her state struggles to both meet its climate goals and generate adequate energy. The plant was destined for permanent closure when Holtec acquired it in 2022. The company had planned to decommission the facility but changed course after conversations with the governor.

On Wednesday, though, that plan was dealt a setback when federal nuclear regulators disclosed “a large number of steam generator tubes” could be faulty and need further inspection. Holtec said the finding does not alter its plans. But some nuclear safety advocates argue the company’s push to quickly reopen the plant puts the public at risk.

The huge cost and regulatory headaches associated with nuclear power are not deterring the tech industry from betting on it. In a remarkable turn of fortune for an industry that just a few years ago was struggling to stay competitive and focused mostly on closing plants, it now finds itself in expansion mode. Beyond seeking contracts for power from existing plants, tech companies are also bullish on next generation nuclear technologies.

Several are investigating the potential of locating their facilities near small modular nuclear reactors that could feed them power directly. Such technology is in its infancy and has not yet been approved by regulators. That isn’t stopping a company chaired by Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates from doubling down on it. The firm, called Terra Power, this year began construction at what it plans to be a small reactor site in site in Wyoming.

Microsoft is also pursuing power from nuclear fusion, a potentially abundant, cheap and clean form of electricity that scientists have been trying to develop for decades — and most say is still a decade or more away from generating electricity. Microsoft has signed a contract to purchase fusion energy from a start-up that claims it can deliver it by 2028.

correction

A previous version of this article misspelled the last name of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. The article has been corrected.

#bsky #Meanwhile in the department of headlines as condensed dystopian novels #dystopian #AI #Anthropocene #doom scrolling #dystopia #pennsylvania #three mile island #nuclear disaster

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mariacallous · 1 month ago

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In the old ranchlands of South Texas, dormant uranium mines are coming back online. A collection of new ones hope to start production soon, extracting radioactive fuel from the region’s shallow aquifers. Many more may follow.

These mines are the leading edge of what government and industry leaders in Texas hope will be a nuclear renaissance, as America’s latent nuclear sector begins to stir again.

Texas is currently developing a host of high-tech industries that require enormous amounts of electricity, from cryptocurrency mines and artificial intelligence to hydrogen production and seawater desalination. Now, powerful interests in the state are pushing to power it with next-generation nuclear reactors.

“We can make Texas the nuclear capital of the world,” said Reed Clay, president of the Texas Nuclear Alliance, former chief operating officer for Texas governor Greg Abbott’s office and former senior counsel to the Texas Office of the Attorney General. “There’s a huge opportunity.”

Clay owns a lobbying firm with heavyweight clients that include SpaceX, Dow Chemical, and the Texas Blockchain Council, among many others. He launched the Texas Nuclear Alliance in 2022 and formed the Texas Nuclear Caucus during the 2023 state legislative session to advance bills supportive of the nuclear industry.

The efforts come amid a national resurgence of interest in nuclear power, which can provide large amounts of energy without the carbon emissions that warm the planet. And it can do so with reliable consistency that wind and solar power generation lack. But it carries a small risk of catastrophic failure and requires uranium from mines that can threaten rural aquifers.

In South Texas, groundwater management officials have fought for almost 15 years against a planned uranium mine. Administrative law judges have ruled in their favor twice, finding potential for groundwater contamination. But in both cases those judges were overruled by the state’s main environmental regulator, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.

Now local leaders fear mining at the site appears poised to begin soon as momentum gathers behind America’s nuclear resurgence.

In October, Google announced the purchase of six small nuclear reactors to power its data centers by 2035. Amazon did the same shortly thereafter, and Microsoft has said it will pay to restart the Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania to power its facilities. Last month, President Joe Biden announced a goal to triple US nuclear capacity by 2050. American companies are racing to license and manufacture new models of nuclear reactors.

“It’s kind of an unprecedented time in nuclear,” said James Walker, a nuclear physicist and cofounder of New York-based NANO Nuclear Energy, a startup developing small-scale “microreactors” for commercial deployment around 2031.

The industry’s reemergence stems from two main causes, he said: towering tech industry energy demands and the war in Ukraine.

Previously, the US relied on enriched uranium from decommissioned Russian weapons to fuel its existing power plants and military vessels. When war interrupted that supply in 2022, American authorities urgently began to rekindle domestic uranium mining and enrichment.

“The Department of Energy at the moment is trying to build back a lot of the infrastructure that atrophied,” Walker said. “A lot of those uranium deposits in Texas have become very economical, which means a lot of investment will go back into those sites.”

In May, the White House created a working group to develop guidelines for deployment of new nuclear power projects. In June, the Department of Energy announced $900 million in funding for small, next-generation reactors. And in September it announced a $1.5 billion loan to restart a nuclear power plant in Michigan, which it called “a first-of-a-kind effort.”

“There’s an urgent desire to find zero-carbon energy sources that aren’t intermittent like renewables,” said Colin Leyden, Texas state director of the Environmental Defense Fund. “There aren’t a lot of options, and nuclear is one.”

Wind and solar will remain the cheapest energy sources, Leyden said, and a build-out of nuclear power would likely accelerate the retirement of coal plants.

The US hasn’t built a nuclear reactor in 30 years, spooked by a handful of disasters. In contrast, China has grown its nuclear power generation capacity almost 900 percent in the last 20 years, according to the World Nuclear Association, and currently has 30 reactors under construction.

Last year, Abbott ordered the state’s Public Utility Commission to produce a report “outlining how Texas will become the national leader in using advanced nuclear energy.” According to the report, which was issued in November, new nuclear reactors would most likely be built in ports and industrial complexes to power large industrial operations and enable further expansion.

“The Ports and their associated industries, like Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), carbon capture facilities, hydrogen facilities and cruise terminals, need additional generation sources,” the report said. Advanced nuclear reactors “offer Texas’ Ports a unique opportunity to enable continued growth.”

In the Permian Basin, the report said, reactors could power oil production as well as purification of oilfield wastewater “for useful purposes.” Or they could power clusters of data centers in Central and North Texas.

Already, Dow Chemical has announced plans to install four small reactors at its Seadrift plastics and chemical plant on a rural stretch of the middle Texas coast, which it calls the first grid-scale nuclear reactor for an industrial site in North America.

“I think the vast majority of these nuclear power plants are going to be for things like industrial use,” said Cyrus Reed, a longtime environmental lobbyist in the Texas Capitol and conservation director for the state’s Sierra Club chapter. “A lot of large industries have corporate goals of being low carbon or no carbon, so this could fill in a niche for them.”

The PUC report made seven recommendations for the creation of public entities, programs, and funds to support the development of a Texas nuclear industry. During next year’s state legislative session, legislators in the Nuclear Caucus will seek to make them law.

“It’s going to be a great opportunity for energy investment in Texas,” said Stephen Perkins, Texas-based chief operating officer of the American Conservation Coalition, a conservative environmental policy group. “We’re really going to be pushing hard for [state legislators] to take that seriously.”

However, Texas won’t likely see its first new commercial reactor come online for at least five years. Before a build-out of power plants, there will be a boom at the uranium mines, as the US seeks to reestablish domestic production and enrichment of uranium for nuclear fuel.

Texas Uranium

Ted Long, a former commissioner of Goliad County, can see the power lines of an inactive uranium mine from his porch on an old family ranch in the rolling golden savannah of South Texas. For years the mine has been idle, waiting for depressed uranium markets to pick up.

There, an international mining company called Uranium Energy Corp. plans to mine 420 acres of the Evangeline Aquifer between depths of 45 and 404 feet, according to permitting documents. Long, a dealer of engine lubricants, gets his water from a well 120 feet deep that was drilled in 1993. He lives with his wife on property that’s been in her family since her great-grandfather emigrated from Germany.

“I’m worried for groundwater on this whole Gulf Coast,” Long said. “This isn’t the only place they’re wanting to do this.”

As a public official, Long fought the neighboring mine for years. But he found the process of engaging with Texas’ environmental regulator, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, to be time-consuming, expensive, and ultimately fruitless. Eventually, he concluded there was no point.

“There’s nothing I can do,” he said. “I guess I’ll have to look for some kind of system to clean the water up.”

The Goliad mine is the smallest of five sites in South Texas held by UEC, which is based in Corpus Christi. Another company, enCore Energy, started uranium production at two South Texas sites in 2023 and 2024, and hopes to bring four more online by 2027.

Uranium mining goes back decades in South Texas, but lately it’s been dormant. Between the 1970s and 1990s, a cluster of open pit mines harvested shallow uranium deposits at the surface. Many of those sites left a legacy of aquifer pollution.

TCEQ records show active cases of groundwater contaminated with uranium, radium, arsenic, and other pollutants from defunct uranium mines and tailing impoundment sites in Live Oak County at ExxonMobil’s Ray Point site, in Karnes County at Conoco-Phillips’ Conquista Project, and at Rio Grande Resources’ Panna Maria Uranium Recovery Facility.

All known shallow deposits of uranium in Texas have been mined. The deeper deposits aren’t accessed by traditional surface mining, but rather a process called in-situ mining, in which solvents are pumped underground into uranium-bearing aquifer formations. Adjacent wells suck back up the resulting slurry, from which uranium dust will be extracted.

Industry describes in-situ mining as safer and more environmentally friendly than surface mining. But some South Texas water managers and landowners are concerned.

”We’re talking about mining at the same elevation as people get their groundwater,” said Terrell Graham, a board member of the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District, which has been fighting a proposed uranium mine for almost 15 years. “There isn’t another source of water for these residents.”

“It Was Rigged, a Setup”

On two occasions, the district has participated in lengthy hearings and won favorable rulings in Texas’ administrative courts supporting concerns over the safety of the permits. But both times, political appointees at the TCEQ rejected judges’ recommendations and issued the permits anyway.

“We’ve won two administrative proceedings,” Graham said. “It’s very expensive, and to have the TCEQ commissioners just overturn the decision seems nonsensical.”

The first time was in 2010. UEC was seeking initial permits for the Goliad mine, and the groundwater conservation district filed a technical challenge claiming that permits risked contamination of nearby aquifers.

The district hired lawyers and geological experts for a three-day hearing on the permit in Austin. Afterwards, an administrative law judge agreed with some of the district’s concerns. In a 147-page opinion issued in September 2010, an administrative law judge recommended further geological testing to determine whether certain underground faults could transmit fluids from the mining site into nearby drinking water sources.

“If the Commission determines that such remand is not feasible or desirable then the ALJ recommends that the Mine Application and the PAA-1 Application be denied,” the opinion said.

But the commissioners declined the judge’s recommendation. In an order issued March 2011, they determined that the proposed permits “impose terms and conditions reasonably necessary to protect fresh water from pollution.”

“The Commission determines that no remand is necessary,” the order said.

The TCEQ issued UEC’s permits, valid for 10 years. But by that time, a collapse in uranium prices had brought the sector to a standstill, so mining never commenced.

In 2021, the permits came up for renewal, and locals filed challenges again. But again, the same thing happened.

A nearby landowner named David Michaelsen organized a group of neighbors to hire a lawyer and challenge UEC’s permit to inject the radioactive waste product from its mine more than half a mile underground for permanent disposal.

“It’s not like I’m against industry or anything, but I don’t think this is a very safe spot,” said Michaelsen, former chief engineer at the Port of Corpus Christi, a heavy industrial hub on the South Texas Coast. He bought his 56 acres in Goliad County in 2018 to build an upscale ranch house and retire with his wife.

In hearings before an administrative law judge, he presented evidence showing that nearby faults and old oil well shafts posed a risk for the injected waste to travel into potable groundwater layers near the surface.

In a 103-page opinion issued April 2024, an administrative law judge agreed with many of Michaelsen’s challenges, including that “site-specific evidence here shows the potential for fluid movement from the injection zone.”

“The draft permit does not comply with applicable statutory and regulatory requirements,” wrote the administrative law judge, Katerina DeAngelo, a former assistant attorney general of Texas in the environmental protection division. She recommended “closer inspection of the local geology, more precise calculations of the [cone of influence], and a better assessment of the faults.”

Michaelsen thought he had won. But when the TCEQ commissioners took up the question several months later, again they rejected all of the judge’s findings.

In a 19-page order issued in September, the commission concluded that “faults within 2.5 miles of its proposed disposal wells are not sufficiently transmissive or vertically extensive to allow migration of hazardous constituents out of the injection zone.” The old nearby oil wells, the commission found, “are likely adequately plugged and will not provide a pathway for fluid movement.”

“UEC demonstrated the proposed disposal wells will prevent movement of fluids that would result in pollution” of an underground source of drinking water, said the order granting the injection disposal permits.

“I felt like it was rigged, a setup,” said Michaelsen, holding his 4-inch-thick binder of research and records from the case. “It was a canned decision.”

Another set of permit renewals remains before the Goliad mine can begin operation, and local authorities are fighting it too. In August, the Goliad County Commissioners Court passed a resolution against uranium mining in the county. The groundwater district is seeking to challenge the permits again in administrative court. And in November, the district sued TCEQ in Travis County District Court seeking to reverse the agency’s permit approvals.

Because of the lawsuit, a TCEQ spokesperson declined to answer questions about the Goliad County mine site, saying the agency doesn’t comment on pending litigation.

A final set of permits remains to be renewed before the mine can begin production. However, after years of frustrations, district leaders aren’t optimistic about their ability to influence the decision.

Only about 40 residences immediately surround the site of the Goliad mine, according to Art Dohmann, vice president of the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District. Only they might be affected in the near term. But Dohmann, who has served on the groundwater district board for 23 years, worries that the uranium, radium, and arsenic churned up in the mining process will drift from the site as years go by.

“The groundwater moves. It’s a slow rate, but once that arsenic is liberated, it’s there forever,” Dohmann said. “In a generation, it’s going to affect the downstream areas.”

UEC did not respond to a request for comment.

Currently, the TCEQ is evaluating possibilities for expanding and incentivizing further uranium production in Texas. It’s following instruction given last year, when lawmakers with the Nuclear Caucus added an item to TCEQ’s biannual budget ordering a study of uranium resources to be produced for state lawmakers by December 2024, ahead of next year’s legislative session.

According to the budget item, “The report must include recommendations for legislative or regulatory changes and potential economic incentive programs to support the uranium mining industry in this state.”

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rjzimmerman · 3 months ago

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Excerpt from this story from CNN:

Britain’s last coal-fired power plant will close on Monday, ending 142 years of coal-generated electricity in the nation that sparked the Industrial Revolution.

The Ratcliffe-on-Soar station in central England is to finish its final shift at midnight, after more than half a century of turning coal into power. Owner Uniper says many of the 170 remaining employees will stay on during a two-year decommissioning process.

The UK government hailed the closure as a milestone in efforts to generate all of Britain’s energy from renewable sources by 2030. The shutdown makes Britain the first country from the Group of Seven major economies to phase out coal — though some other European nations, including Sweden and Belgium, got there sooner.

In 1990 coal provided about 80% of Britain’s electricity. By 2012 it had fallen to 39%, and by 2023 it stood at just 1%, according to figures from the National Grid. More than half of Britain’s electricity now comes from renewable sources such as wind and solar power, and the rest from natural gas and nuclear energy.

#UK #coal

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darkspine10 · 1 year ago

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GF Fanfic - Critical Meltdown

Dipper and Mabel Vs. The Past (40,456 words) by darkspine10

Chapters: 8/9

Fandom: Gravity Falls

Rating: Teen and Up

Surrounded by a giant field of solar panels glistening in the evening sun stood a pair of conical grey towers. Out here in the desert they seemed a resolute fixture of the landscape. Pacifica wondered how long they would last. If humanity vanished tomorrow, how many centuries would pass before those circular towers crumbled into dust? How much longer still might the elements within, hidden in the core deep below, linger on as a persistent danger.

She read the name on the signs, ‘Rancho Seco Nuclear Generating Plant’. It seemed a remote spot, nearly 2 hours drive out from Piedmont and miles from the city centre. An odd place to end this. Rusting sirens stood on poles. They would be silent if anything dangerous happened.

She heard the screech of tires and saw the Mini pull up to the plant. Her husband practically fell out of the car, followed by Mabel, Zera, and his father.

Dipper looked immensely worn out. Making the round trip to pick up the others was the cherry on the cake of a very long day. He wasn’t the only one. Zera was wiped out from all the spellcasting and running around too.

Mabel seemed as peppy as ever though, bounding over to her mother and Merrise with a spring in her step. “Heya guys, how’ve you been? We went to the zoo!”

Merrise bounced on the spot. “Ooh, we went to this science museum place, and fought a dinosaur, and now I’ve got a toy dinosaur!”

“That’s great kiddo!” She turned to Pacifica, suddenly dropping her exuberance. “Any sign of tulpa number 3?”

“Not from out here. I haven’t stepped inside yet.” Pacifica lowered her voice to a whisper. “I don’t want Merrise going anywhere near a radioactive building.”

“You don’t have to worry about radiation,” Dipper said loudly, making it impossible for anyone not to hear. So much for sensitivity. “This place was decommissioned 50 years ago. The only active nuclear plant in the whole state is Diablo Canyon, south of the city.”

“So how’d you find this place?” Mabel asked, turning her head to look around and doing a 360 degree spin in the process. “There are no news crews anywhere. No anyone, in fact.”

“That’s where there might be a problem.” Dipper turned on his energy scanner. A large green pulse was flashing brightly on the map. Its location corresponded to where they were currently standing. “It’s possible the tulpa here is leeching power from some latent potential energy remaining in the core. Or maybe doing something with contaminated waste. Either way it’s not good. The tulpa could use the energy to manifest as something even more powerful than what we’ve witnessed so far.”

“They already did a convincing T-Rex,” Pacifica said, unimpressed. “How much bigger can you get?”

“I’m talking universal level threat.” He mimed an explosion by expanding his hands out in a wide area. “Something that won’t merely terrorise the city, but could destroy it instead!”

“Oh, so no pressure then,” Mrs Pines said. “I suppose the seven of us are going to walk right inside and save the world?”

“That sounds like the Pines MO,” Zera said. She was still slumped in the back of the car with her eyes half-lidded.

“I suppose, if no-one else is going to do it… it falls to us.” Mr Pines unexpectedly led the way towards the facility, with the others, besides Zera, following in lockstep. She stayed where she was to nurse her head, making a half-hearted thumbs up.

As nuclear plants go, the site was modest. Besides the two cooling towers there was a small main building, consisting of a bunch of functional square units with a squat cylindrical tower attached, resembling a grain silo. Behind was an electrical substation and pylons trailing off to the horizon. Over to their left, a row of storage unit sheds containing used fuel rods. A sign saying ‘trespassers are prohibited’ did nothing to stop them. As the sun went down, electric lamp posts automatically switched on, bathing them in a harsh artificial glare.

“A nuclear plant after dark, what a place for a mystery hunt,” Dipper said, his voice echoing slightly.

“Reminds me of that derelict hydro dam we went to once,” Mabel said. “There’s something eerie about a place that used to give power now sitting lifeless.”

“Don’t get poetic on us, May,” Pacifica said. “You can rhapsodise all about this place when we’re cosy and warm at home, sipping hot chocolate and unwrapping presents.” She shook her head. “What are our lives like? I mean, of all the places…”

Dipper pointed over the plains to the south. “There were actually some cryptid sightings near here once. There’s a lake and a park over there. People said they saw a ‘raptor’ flying above.”

“I remember that,” Mabel said, snapping her fingers. “We camped out by the lakeside and staked it out. Back in ‘21.” She poked her brother in the side. “You got bitten by sooooo many mosquitos that night.”

“That wasn’t long before the wedding,” Pacifica said, lost in thought. “Then we moved away from Mabel a short while after.”

“Dark days,” Dipper said jokily. “We never did find any raptor. At least this time our outing won’t be wasted. We know for a fact that the tulpa is here at the plant.”

“Dad, what is a nuclear power plant anyway?” Merrise asked, neck straining to look up at the cooling towers. Red LED lights shone around the rims of each, making them seem like the bastion of an evil fortress.

Mr Pines was the one to explain, glad to be able to provide something from his wheelhouse. “It uses the splitting of high-mass elements to generate heat, which causes water to turn into steam and rotate a turbine to produce electricity. Like… a really big water wheel, essentially.”

“Cool,” Merrise said. Though she didn’t always get overly excited by science topics, she still had a voracious desire to understand more about how the natural world worked.

“This one isn’t doing anything though,” Mabel said, scoffing. “They should have never built it in the first place.”

“Oh yeah, cause it’s so totally dangerous to the environment.” Dipper rolled his eyes.

“Well it is!”

“Only if you buy into the anti-nuclear propaganda”

“You’ll be the one regretting it if a place like this melts down and makes half of California unlivable.”

“Just so long as you admit that you’re encouraging a return to fossil fuels if you bash nuclear!”

“Can you two shut up for a second?” Pacifica hissed. “Debate later, when the city isn’t at risk.”

Merrise raised an eyebrow at the twins. “I thought you two were meant to have some super special, epic sibling bond or something like that?”

“Oh, we do,” Mabel said. “Sibling relationships are just like this. It’s not always sunshine and roses. What, you think we never argue? Never want to have our side heard?”

“I believe it,” Pacifica said, “I’ve got two decades of first hand experience of you two bickering.”

“I’ve got three,” Mrs Pines gleefully added.

“The point is,” Mabel said, returning to her niece, “is that we may disagree and have differing views… but we’re still family. We still love each other, no matter how much we drive each other up the wall. I keep forgetting, none of you guys ever had any siblings. Even Z, who had a crazy amount of tadpole siblings, doesn’t count.”

“It’s like having a ‘default friend’,” Dipper said. “We’re so close, but we also know exactly how to drive each other mad. We share a bunch of family in-jokes and memories that’s hard for anyone else to appreciate, even with you, Paz.”

Merrise thought for a moment. “I guess then we’ll have to act like a family now. So we can all know what that’s like. Like you said before. Family traditions can start whenever we want to make some.”

Dipper smiled, proud of his daughter’s initiative and desire to heal their fractious family make-up one way or another. He glanced at his parents, walking ahead along the silent alley. He resolved to reconcile with them as soon as possible, so they could put the whole sorry lying business in the past for good.

To no-one’s surprise the doors to the reactor building were locked. A metal chain and padlock were slung across. Mr Pines pushed it to no avail. “Oh well, guess we’ll have to go home. He gave a weak laugh that nobody else reciprocated and it died in his throat. “Worth a shot.”

“Step back everyone, I’ve got this.” Mabel smugly pushed through to examine the doors. She squinted and focused with her glasses, before standing up and wiping her hands. “Oh, this’ll be easy. I won’t even have to pick the lock.” From her jacket pocket she removed a pair of wire clippers and snipped the rusting chain. The padlock clanked to the ground. “Voila!”

“I’m constantly amazed by the stuff you happen to be carrying,” Pacifica said, shaking her head.

“I always carry wire clippers with me. Usually bolt cutters and a couple of spray cans too.” Mabel shrugged. “Never know when you have to do an impromptu bit of political activism.” She pushed the double doors open and peered into the dark gloom.

Dipper switched on his flashlight and entered the reception area. There was a smell of dry must, as well as a clinical antiseptic scent. They’d probably sprayed the whole place down to reduce any chance of leakage or waste. His scanner showed the same bright pulse, but it was once again poor at giving him the fine detail needed to pin down the tulpa. He turned off the tracking feature and extended twin aerials on either side of the boxy device. It instantly started making a constant clicking noise. “Geiger counter reading is looking alright, only a little above background. Even though this place isn’t too big I think we should stick together for now. That way we won’t accidentally go anywhere with higher risk levels.”

“And you’re still sure Merrise should be in here?” Mrs Pines asked. “Might it be worth her going back to wait by the car?”

“I don’t want to go.” Merrise said, frowning. “This is a family adventure.”

“I’m being conscious of your wellbeing, my dear. It’s not even something out of the ordinary. Radiation poisoning is no laughing matter.”

“She knows the risks,” Dipper said absent-mindedly. “It’s dangerous, but if Pacifica and I are willing to stick our necks out then nothing we say can stop Merrise tagging along. Believe me, I’ve tried.”

“I suppose child endangerment is what you’re used to,” she said sharply. “You said it yourself, you started out so young.”

“That’s… that’s not important right now,” he mumbled. Resting his flashlight in the crook of his neck he shone it down at Journal 9 while he sketched a rough layout of the facility. “Ok, there’s the parking lot, cooling towers over here.” He drew two circles off to the right side. “Main entrance here, reactor core should be… there.” In an empty space at the middle of his drawing he marked a cross.

“Seems the most likely spot,” Mabel said. “Let’s go

“Then we have to deal with that Errata guy,” Pacifica added, a sour look on her face. It had already been a long enough day and she didn’t relish the idea of dealing with yet another cryptid on the loose.

The group passed through a series of functional grey corridors, only briefly shining their lights into side rooms and moving on. Dipper kept adding to his map, drawing more lines at every junction they went by. At the next turn he abruptly went left. They entered a large control room, with banks of dusty computers along the walls and ranks of freestanding consoles. A window running the length of the far wall looked down onto the reactor core itself. Walkways crisscrossed a large hall with empty circular pits.

“Most of the components were stripped out ages ago,” Dipper said. “The power generating equipment was all removed, the control rods, and the turbines. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission made sure to clean it all too, before you ask, Mabel, so in theory it should be safe.” His geiger counter was still ticking away at the same rate.

“Hmm, I’m still not convinced,” Mabel said, peering through the window. Given her poor eyesight she wasn’t able to make out much. “There must be something, or else why would the tulpa come here?”

“Fair point.” Dipper shone his light down into the reactor area but it barely made a dent in the enclosed darkness. “It makes you sad, doesn’t it? This place used to harness the power of the atom to create incredible amounts of power. Now it’s a husk.”

“Doesn’t make me sad,” Pacifica said. “It’s just a grimy industrial hole in the ground and I’d rather we don’t stick around chatting all evening and got the hell out of here.”

“Right right, let’s stay on mission.” He laid out his journal on the nearest desk and the others huddled around to look. Dipper’s finger slid along the page. “There are two passageways that lead down there, one on each side of the complex leading from this control centre. I recommend we break into two groups and meet again in the middle. Since the core’s likely the most likely place for the tulpa to be hiding, and also probably has the highest chance of radiation. I'm going to take a page out of your book, Mom. Merrise, I want you to stay up here, and before you argue,” she’d already opened her mouth to complain, “you can still help. From here you can watch everything that goes on down there and warn us if there’s trouble. The lights outside had electricity, so there should be an intercom.”

He hurried around the consoles, but his father found the microphone first. He clicked the button and they heard a quiet feedback sound from the main chamber.

“Good good,” Dipper said. “Now, Pacifica, I know you’ll hate me for this, but I want you to stay up here and look after Merrise.”

“What, and play babysitter while you go down there?”

“If my hunch about the core is wrong then we need someone to watch our flank if the tulpa shows up where we aren’t expecting it.” He put his palm on her cheek. “You and Merrise are our backup if something goes wrong.”

Pacifica clutched his hand and kissed it. “When you put it like that… don’t be reckless down there.”

“Hey, you know me. As long as I don’t eat any uranium rods I’m sure I’ll be fine.” He flashed a crooked grin and she giggled.

“Go on, get out of here and finish this.”

“I’ll go with Mom down the right corridor,” Mabel said. “You take Dad a go around the other way.”

Dipper nodded and both he and his sister strode out of the room. Mr and Mrs Pines shared an uneasy look before following their respective children out. “Relax,” Pacifica called after them. “It’s only a monster that can turn into any other monster in the multiverse, sitting on top of what could turn into a ginormous ticking time bomb. What’s the worst that could happen?”

“Ignore her,” Dipper said to his dad. “She’s trying to lighten the mood the way only Pacifica can.”

“You can sure pick ‘em,” Mr Pines replied.

They were only a few feet down the corridor when the air was split by an ear-piercing shriek. “Pacifica!” Dipper cried. “Dad, stay here.” He immediately bolted back down the corridor. When he got back to the control room he bumped into Mabel who’d had the same idea. They found Pacifica cowering in the corner, while Merrise was in hysterics. She pointed to the corner of the room, where a mass of cobwebs were tangled up. “I walked right into it!” Pacifica said, stamping her feet.

Mabel dropped down onto her front and watched a spider scuttling along the floor. “Aw, poor cutie.” She held out her finger and let the arachnid crawl over her fingers. “That tickles.” She set the spider down over by the webs and let it wander off. “You were scared of that tiny thing, Paz?”

“I wasn’t expecting it ok! It got in my hair! It’s not mutated is it?”

“Nope. Looks perfectly average. The girl who’s fought demons one-on-one can’t handle a small bug. Wow.”

Dipper coughed into his fist, “Moth.”

Mabel screamed and leapt to her feet. “WHERE? KILL IT!” The look of amusement on everyone’s faces made her straighten. “Uh, I mean. Wooh. Crazy.” She cupped her hands together then pointed down the corridor. “Let’s… let’s keep going.”

“Wait!” They turned to Merrise, face and palms right up against the glass. Down in the reactor room Mr and Mrs Pines each emerged from either side.

“They went on without us,” Mabel said, furrowing her brow.

“That’s why!” Merrise pointed but they’d all seen it. Following Mr and Mrs Pines into the room were two shimmering golden humanoids. They were short, only children. Dipper was confused. Where were the terrifying enemies, the cosmic entities hellbent on destruction that the tulpa would surely have turned into?

The two tulpas had taken the shape of a boy and a girl. The boy had a baseball cap and wore a sleeveless vest and shorts, while the girl’s colourful woollen sweater was hard to miss. Dipper had been wrong. The tulpa didn’t want the energy in this place to turn into something powerful. It needed the vast sums of energy to create another emotional connection, similar to his own repressed internal turmoil at the golf course. The tulpa had turned into perfect replicas of the Pines twins, circa 2012.

Zera’s eyes flipped open. She’d managed to drift off peacefully in the car. The lights from the plant hadn’t reached her and it was perfectly pitch black in the desert. Or it had been. A bright light made her cover her eyes and sit up. The glare was covering the entire plant and its surroundings in a diffuse halo. It wasn’t a golden illumination, as the tulpas and their creator had been. It was a harsher, lifeless light, like the glow of a distant forest fire over the horizon. An unholy aura.

Zera didn’t know what was causing the sudden luminance, but she knew it couldn’t be a good sign. She was worried it was radioactive in some way. That was silly though. Radiation didn’t actually glow like in a cartoon. It was an invisible, insidious killer. This must be related to the tulpas.

A dark shape flew past the car and she turned her head to catch it. Her mouth dropped open as she recognised the four-legged, top-heavy monstrosity lurching towards the main reactor building. “Oh May. I hope you know what you’re doing.”

“Mary? What are we doing? I’m not so sure this was a good idea.”

“Me neither. But what else are we supposed to do?”

They’d each seen a tulpa manifesting in the hallway, taking on the almost cherubic representations of their children. The children beckoned Mr and Mrs Pines onwards. Since they had no clue how to fight back they’d not demurred, and let the creatures guide them. Once all four of them were in the reactor room, the tulpas stood side-by-side and faced the parents. They each held one hand aloft, casting an ominous light to outshine the feeble flashlights. It enveloped the chamber, blocking all vision from the outside. Since then the tulpa twins had stood lifelessly in the reactor hall, staring vacantly ahead. They were like clockwork automatons waiting for the strike of noon.

Up in the control room, blinded by the glare, Pacifica and Merrise tried desperately to come up with answers. “We’ve gotta do something!” Merrise said, throwing her arms down in frustration. “This is a control room, right? Can’t we do anything from up here? I don’t know, turn off the power, stop the reactor. Control rods, those are a thing, right?”

“That’s just it, there are no controls.” Pacifica slammed a fist on the nearest console, which resounded with an echoing clang. “Like Mason said, all the power regulating machines are already gone. There shouldn’t be anything down there that’s capable of generating energy, let alone allowing us to switch it off!” Even the intercom had proven useless, giving nothing but static. Whatever the tulpas were doing to shine such a bright glow was also blocking radio waves too.

“That light, it hurts to look.” Merrise shielded her eyes with her hand and tapped the glass overlooking the floor below. “This is like bulletproof or something. They’re my grandparents!” Merrise said, on the verge of tears. “We’ve gotta be able to do something.”

“It’s up to the twins now.” Pacifica set her lip in a resolute line, determined not to show any fear in front of her daughter. “Why does it always have to fall on their stupid shoulders?”

That, as a matter of fact, was what Dipper was thinking at that same moment, creeping along the corridor to the reactor. He had no plan, no backup magic artefacts or clever tricks to win the day. He had his journal, his sister, and a fleeting hope his parents weren’t about to be disintegrated in a ball of fiery death.

Mabel ran up to the door to the room where her parents were. She pressed herself against the door, commando style, readying her gauntlet and squaring her shoulders. She nodded to Dipper as if expecting him to match her stance. He simply walked up to the door and shoved it open. Forget surprise; the tulpas must know they were coming.

He thought it would be burning hot inside but found all heat was being leached from the air. As they passed through the blazing nimbus of light the twins’ eyes adjusted quickly. It was like being underwater, the light speckling in bands which caught dust beams suspended in the air. “Mom, Dad!” Mabel yelled.

The tulpas and their parents were in the heart of the power plant, the eye of the storm where the light dimmed to acceptable levels to stare without squinting. Mr and Mrs Pines didn’t seem aware of the real twins outside the core, and hadn’t heard Mabel’s calls.

“Finally.” The multi-faceted voice ricocheted into the twins’ ears. The doors leading to the opposite corridor exploded off their hinges. The twins ducked. Swooping in was the enormous four-legged chimaera they’d last seen downtown. He was flying via a pair of wings that had sprouted out of the bark on his back. Each flapping wing was made of a tight coil of paper strands, brown and weathered, covered in scrawl from multiple writers.

Errata hovered above the tulpas and then set himself gently behind them. He held out his arms as if beckoning Mr and Mrs Pines forwards, like an evangelical preacher welcoming his flock. “Oh, that is good!” He primarily sounded like Dipper now, blocking out most of the other voices vying for dominance in the beast’s throat. “One happy family, back together. Isn’t that how it should be?”

Mabel ran towards her parents but came up against the wall of light. She pushed against the translucent barrier, finding herself repelled. “Don’t hurt them! Dipper, do something!”

“I- I don’t know what to do.” From out here the tableau within looked as still as the surface of an undisturbed lake. Neither the fantastical creatures or his parents were moving in the slightest. He reached out with his fingers and brushed the edge of the light core. To his astonishment they passed through the outer barrier.

Mabel watched him intently, then patted her brother on the back. “Dipper, it has to be you!”

“What, why me? You’re a part of this too, we both lied.”

“It’s not about that anymore. Dipper, don’t you get it? Errata, he’s a reflection of you more than anyone else. Think about it. Ford started the journals, sure, but you’ve written the most! You made them your entire life, devoted yourself to mysteries and adventures. You can break through. I believe in you, bro.” She hugged Dipper, then gently guided him towards the core.

As he’d anticipated, he passed through without resistance. The light parted like a curtain to let him approach. “Plus it was your decision to lie in the first place!” Mabel shoved Dipper the rest of the way through the light barrier. “You got this Dip! No backsies!”

“Hey, Mabel! Not fair!” He stumbled and nearly fell over until he righted his sense of balance. He looked forward and swallowed hard. “Oh crap.” The tulpas and his parents had turned to look at him with unanimous blank expressions. Dipper almost felt like laughing when he saw the copies of himself and Mabel up close. Him with his hat down firmly over his forehead, still mired in embarrassment about the birthmark that nowadays he considered nothing more than a fun quirk. Mabel’s purple sweater with a doofy cat wasn’t so different from something she’d still wear, but Dipper recognised the specificity. Both twins looked exactly as they had on the day Dipper had found Journal 3 in the woods. They were unchanged, a snapshot of innocence from that warm summer’s day 17 years ago.

His first thoughts were on practical matters. Ignoring his parents he fixed his glare on Errata’s starry face. The chimaera seemed to be smiling, though as always it was hard to discern. “First things first,” Dipper said. “I want to know how you harnessed the radiation. I’ve no idea where it’s coming from, but I demand you stop. Every second I spend bantering with you we’re all getting irradiated. I’d prefer if my parents didn’t end up mutated. Plus Pacifica and I have already dealt with enough infertility issues to last a lifetime, thank you very much.”

Dipper thought irreverence would be the easiest way to project his authority. Errata didn’t care. He gave a small grunt and shrug of the head that Dipper took to be a laugh. “Haven’t you figured it out yet? I thought you were supposed to be the smart one.” Dipper frowned at the perceived insult, both to him and the rest of his family. “There is no radiation.”

Dipper’s jaw dropped open. “But how-“

“Easy. I fed off the symbolic energy of this building.” Errata swept his hands around the room. A faint ectoplasmic glow appeared to hover off the walls before fading. “After you dealt so efficiently with the chaos I’d sown across the city, I was ready to embrace the lurking power. This place is practically drowning in…” Errata sniffed, “significance. All those technicians working here, they couldn’t help but express the way the world thought about it. The totemic fear, cracking the atom, the scientist’s dream of ultimate power. Of course it seeped into the very foundations of the brickwork! Then when it was abandoned it grew to an even greater significance. An enduring relic of man’s folly, of a path science went down before being treated as a dead end. I couldn’t resist the ritual of it all.”

“And now your tulpas are done harvesting all the energy up.”

“Not quite, you still have something of mine.”

Dipper felt in his pocket and found the two tulpas they’d caught, still locked in the form of the amulet and key. Seeing no other option, he held the objects out for Errata to take. He passed one each to the twins’ tulpas, handing the amulet to Mabel and the key to Dipper. It was then that the real Dipper realised the significance of the items. They’d managed to collect each others’ items, but it didn’t matter. These were in fact the very first artefacts the twins had acquired on their adventures, even if only temporarily in the amulet’s case. Dipper even still had the real President’s Key, framed back home.

Dipper slapped his forehead. “I should’ve realised sooner. You’re empathic. I’ve met a few empaths before. All those complicated foreign emotions swirling around must be enough to drive you mad.”

“Very nearly, boy. But I like the aftertaste of discord, the bitter swill of recriminations, smothered sentiment and… regret. Oh, how it feeds me. I was born in the crucible of lies and now it nourishes my soul!”

Dipper stood his ground and scowled. “Don’t think you can scare me. I’ve faced all kinds of psychic assaults. Dream demons who think they know me, regression to past events, I’ve seen it all. I’m not afraid of you.”

“Oh, I don’t want your fear, at least not this tawdry primal stew.” The chimaera’s paper wings swept down to surround Dipper’s parents, who remained oddly unresponsive. “No no no, not the shakiness of terror, the risk of physical hurt, even the potential harm to your loved ones. It’s all part of the game to you. The fear I want is much richer. It’s the fear that people could find out your secret: that you get off on all this.”

Dipper began to sweat and dropped his prepared stance. “You’re wrong.”

“Am I?” Errata snapped his finger, bringing Mr and Mrs Pines back to life.

“Dipper? What’s going on, where are-” Mr Pines gazed up to see Errata towering above him.

“Hi there,” Errata said wickedly. Pacifica’s tone of voice had floated to the top of the pile.“You’re a sick, dirty little addict. Mason ‘Dipper’ ’Ursus’ Pines. You and your sister, sneaking out at night, skipping school, repressing everything. How scrumptious it will be when those emotions come pouring out!”

Mrs Pines began to whimper. “He’s trying to make things worse, don’t listen to him.” Dipper’s parents tried to run free, but the wings kept them surrounded in a cruel embrace.

“Stop it!” he yelled, pushing forwards.

“Not yet.” Errata held out a single one of his six fingers and held Dipper back by the forehead. “Let’s have more of that juicy turmoil hidden behind your astronomical ego. Get the pun?” Dipper shoved the finger away from his birthmark but Errata had another trick up his sleeve.

“Boy, I can’t believe we defeated all those gnomes!” The tulpa of Mabel had spoken, and Dipper knew it was his reflection’s turn next.

“Who knows what other secrets are waiting to be unlocked thanks to this journal!” The copy sounded so eager, so carefree. He was ready to deceive his own parents if it meant there wasn’t even the slimmest chance of losing this new window of opportunity. Both of his parents could see this for themselves, giving disappointed glances at the golden twins, at least when not being intimidated into silence by Errata’s freakish thuggery.

The chimaera himself seemed overwhelmed with pleasure. “Oh, that’s decadent. Who knew one measly human boy could generate such drama.”

“Shut up!” Dipper shouted, surprising Errata. Defiance wasn’t an emotion he’d been expecting. “I’ve had it up to here with your petty taunts! Forget it. I don’t care if my parents don’t approve of my life. I’m an adult, I’ve got a family and responsibilities that I chose, alright. This doesn’t define anything anymore.” Dipper opened Journal 9 and held it for all to see. “Haven’t you got the memo yet, Errata? My parents have all the time in the world now to get to know me and my secrets. You said you were an open book? Well I’ve got dozens of the things lying around at home.” Errata was stunned into silence, and Dipper couldn’t tell if it was from his outburst or the sudden severing of his precious food source.

Dipper looked down from the irrelevant monster and approached his parents. “Yes, Mom, Dad. I lied. I did it because I wanted to have it both ways.” He pointed at his 12-year old self. “I could be ‘Dipper the investigator’, ‘Dipper the cryptid expert’, ‘Dipper the romantic hero’, and still come home and be ‘Mason the ordinary kid’.”

“Oh Dipper.” His mother knelt down and hugged him. “You could have told us and not had to hide any part of yourself.”

“Maybe,” he said, lightly hugging back. “Try telling that to me back then. You might not have understood, even if someone like Ford tried to explain it. There were times that first summer where I thought I couldn’t trust Grunkle Stan, or Mabel, or even my own doppelgangers. The idea of someone who didn’t even know the first thing about magic accepting it off the bat seemed laughable.” He rubbed his neck. “And if we’re being honest, I never really had any friends before that summer. I was a nerd, with freaky forehead acne. Then I found people I could relate to, who lived and breathed weirdness. I didn’t want to lose them as much as the actual adventures.”

Dipper sniffed, and Mr Pines put a supportive hand on his shoulder. “Hey now, we might not get all of this craziness, but we still love you son. None of this can change that. I mean, it’s not like you turned out to be hiding something bad about yourself, is it?”

“Exactly!” His mother was smiling now, almost forgetting where they were. “We never knew you had such a capacity to draw and write, in such detail.”

“Yeah, those tulpa things could only be so accurate if the source material already was, right? Lifelike doesn’t even begin to cover it! Then there’s Mabel, doing all those fancy spells. I never thought my little girl had it in her! Or Zera, she leapt into action to save us, near-strangers. If that isn’t heroic I don’t know what is.”

“And what about little Merrise, who was so brave to endure so much. If you hadn’t told us the truth we’d never know har far you’d all come.”

“And Pacifica, she… did we learn anything new about Pacifica, Mary?”

“I don’t think so.“ His parents laughed. “Well she’s a wonderful person as well, I’m sure she’ll be a great mother to Wendy and Merrise.”

“Thanks,” Dipper said, smiling and holding back tears. “It means a lot, to hear all that from you after so long.”

“C’mon Dipper!” Dipper looked up. Errata was frozen with a pensive expression. The tulpa of Mabel was leading her brother away. “Let’s go find another adventure in Gravity Falls.” The echoes of the twins wandered away, past Errata, before disappearing into the light. A cascade of golden energy flowed into Errata a moment later, but he didn’t react.

“I think I get it now,” he said, with an almost eerie calmness. He stumbled on his hind legs as if drunk. “I thought the potential of that trapped doubt and guilt was all I needed. But this, this cocktail of missed opportunity and exuberant acceptance, a new beginning… It’s a heady mix.”

“It’s an all new flavour of emotion. I like it too,” Dipper said softly. Errata smiled, and for the first time it wasn’t in a mocking way.

His brutish hands were almost graceful as they reached out to a sunbeam, catching falling dust motes in his palm. “Here I was thinking I knew you Dipper Pines. Perhaps I only knew your imprint. All your years jumbled together on the pages of the journals. None of them could quite capture who you are in the present.”

Dipper noticed the mood around them had subtly changed. There was a satisfying warmth in the reactor room, and the light was no longer harsh to the eye. It was a pleasant orange, like the light of a roaring campfire or a homely hearth. Dipper saw his sister waving, back by the entrance. She could tell something positive had taken place.

Errata creaked as he stretched out his trunk neck. “Thank you. For showing me there can be other paths. Perhaps we will meet again, and I can return the favour.” Errata stood in place, but the room began to shake.

Dipper was the first to cotton on to what was about to happen. He took his parents by the hand and backed away from his indirect creation, offering a grin of support before turning to leave.

“What the heck is-” Mabel was cut off as Dipper ran past, adding her hand to the list and dragging her away. Sprinting out, they stopped in the control room for only a second.

“Time to go guys,” Dipper said to Pacifica and Merrise, who looked relieved to see them all unharmed. The quakes became more violent, knocking over desks and computers, which let off a flurry of electrical sparks.

Dipper spared only a single glance down into the reactor. The light was building in intensity again. Errata was blurred and indistinct. Dipper lingered until he became completely obscured, and was the last to run out of the main block after his family. They continued to run until they reached the parking lot. Zera was standing outside the car, mouth agape watching as the entire plant shone like the sun.

A sudden gust of air blew inwards toward the reactor, dimming the light as it went. The Pines family watched in amazement as there was sudden implosion, with all the light focusing into one point at the centre of the plant before shooting upwards like a searchlight’s beam straight up into the night sky. The roof of the reactor room blew outwards, sending concrete walls catapulting away. Amongst the devastation, Dipper smiled when he saw a brief vision of Errata, racing away into the stars up above.

Then it was all over. The light dissipated, the earth was still, and the danger was over. They all let out deep breaths of relief and looked around at each other, celebrating the fact they’d survived together.

“It’s over.” Mrs Pines had spoken. Her gaze was fixed on the sky. “Where-”

“It’s not important,” Dipper said. “He’s nothing anymore. Merely a footnote. What’s really important is the story we write next.” He showed his parents the cover of Journal 9, with the same starry pattern as Errata’s face. It glimmered in the half-light of the moon. Dipper looked expectantly at the two of them. “So? What do you say? Want to add your own touch?”

His parents shared only a short look, before taking Journal 9 and turning it to the latest blank page. Marc and Mary Pines would be the latest in a long line to lend a small part of themselves to the ever expanding tapestry started in Gravity Falls so many years ago.

“Great, world’s saved again,” Zera yawned. “Now can we please go home and get some sleep?”

#gravity falls #gravity falls fanfic #dipper pines #pacifica northwest #mabel pines #dipper and mabel's parents

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rebrandedstoryline · 2 years ago

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Rebranded - 7 - Moving In

Moon brings Sun to their new home. There’s a few hiccups, but things seem to be going well.

Word Count: 1,489

When nightfall came, the two animatronics set out towards their potential home. Moon, having already visited the location multiple times, was the one to lead the way. Sun followed close behind, stepping only where his twin had stepped.

The journey took some time. A couple of hours, easily.

The landscape was not even. There were multiple hills which needed to be ascended and multiple drops which needed to be carefully climbed. It was a relatively easy journey for them. Not so much for humans.

That discovery ultimately helped Sun relax. The fact that they could so easily flee if needed. The fact that they could go back to their temporary shelter at any moment if something happened. The fact that the terrain meant that humans would struggle to maintain chase if they were found. All of it brought him a sense of comfort.

The opportunity to escape would not be so easily lost. The risk of being decommissioned seemed just a little less prevalent.

Upon arriving at the house in question, Sun hesitated for a moment before following his twin. As he hesitated his solar flares flickered and rotated ever so slightly, before retracting completely into his head for a split second.

Moon made no move to rush his twin, well aware of what Sun was doing. The sensors used to detect signs of life were stored in their rays. Sun was just making sure that there were genuinely no people loitering about in the empty house. Once the house was concluded to indeed be empty, the hesitant animatronic resumed following after his brother.

Just as had been promised, there were a lot of plants to be found. Plants which had clearly been planted by people. Plants which would bear fruit. Plants which would serve a purpose. Around the house itself there were berry bushes. They did not know what sort of berries were growing on these bushes, but they were berries nonetheless.

As Moon had mentioned, there were strange looking black panels set up upon the roof. If those panels were somehow involved in solar power, then that would absolutely explain why the house still had electricity.

Speaking of the house, it was definitely smaller than the animatronics were accustomed to. The daycare had been much larger, roughly the size of a small warehouse. They had been made taller in order to make working in that space easier.

Getting used to a normal building would prove difficult. That would probably be the only downside, though.

The AI would be able to make due with the luck they had been given.

“There’s a lot of yard space.” Moon abruptly spoke, taking a moment to point in the distance. “We’re too far away to see it, but there’s a fence marking the perimeter of the property. So we’ll have an established territory if we keep within the borders. We can treat it like the daycare… Stay within the boundaries and take care of what we have.” He explained, seemingly attempting to make the transitional period easier on his sibling.

All the while he unintentionally used language befitting a security bot.

“Moony, are your security protocols still active?” Sun jokingly inquired, attempting to poke a bit of fun at how his twin had started to speak. The question coaxed what seemed to be an awkward laugh out of the nocturnal bot.

“My security protocols... They aren’t exactly inactive, but they aren’t active either. Somewhere in the middle. I’m always on alert, but my system isn’t giving me any false flags.” Moon explained, his tone rather quiet and a bit uneasy. The subject was not a comfortable one for him to discuss, given his background. Though he did not hold it against his sibling to try and lighten the mood. “It doesn’t matter, though. Come. I’ll show you the way inside.” He added, quickly changing the subject before Sun could become distracted by the somber tone of his earlier reply.

“Can’t we use the door?” Sun inquired, rightfully confused. He could see the entrance from where they stood.

“No, not really. The door has some sort of a mechanical lock in place. Whoever abandoned the house, they set up precautions to try and keep others out. The front and back door and all of the windows on the bottom floor are locked up tight. We’ll break them if we try to use them.” Moon explained, somewhat anxiously as he unloaded this information. He suspected that his sibling may find this knowledge at least somewhat distressing.

“W-wouldn’t that mean that someone might notice us going in? A security alert could go off...” Sun replied nervously, now seeming incredibly hesitant to approach the building.

“I tested that theory already.” Moon stated in turn, shifting so that he could put a comforting hand upon his brother’s shoulder. “I would not have brought you here if I didn’t consider this building completely safe. Any potential risk, I made sure it was not an issue. The windows on the second floor are not locked. The window leading to the attic is how I’ve been getting into the house. I have gone in multiple times and explored every room to test and see if any sort of alarm would go off. No one has ever come to investigate. So long as we don’t fool around with the windows or doors on the bottom floor, we’ll be fine.” He stated, making it very clear that he had already thought of the potential risks of moving into the abandoned house.

Whatever security system was in place; if there was one in place; it would only be activated by damaging the integrity of the mechanical locks.

“I-I... I’m sorry, Moony. You’re-re ri-right. I’m just sc-sc-ared...” Sun stammered, a sort of anxiety induced vocal glitch taking hold of his voice box as he spoke. It was a symptom of high emotional distress. One that the technicians had never quite managed to work out of his system.

Moon could only attempt to coax his sibling towards the house. The vocal glitch would go away on its own once Sun’s stress had been reduced.

“It's alright, Sun. You’re alright. You know I’d never let anything hurt you. I promise.” Moon replied, gently tugging his twin towards the building.

Sun did not reply for fear of his vocal stammer rendering him incomprehensible. He simply allowed his brother to lead him to the entrance of their new home.

Thanks to their height and the long reach of their limbs, they were able to make their way to the third floor of the building without any issues. The large windows leading to the attic opened inward, allowing the two to make their way inside without need for any acrobatics.

As Moon had warned, the inside of the building was caked in dust. The attic in particular was filthy when compared to the rooms below. Aside from a few crumbling boxes, the attic was entirely empty. It was home only to dust and cobwebs.

Dusty cobwebs at that. The spiders that had built them had moved on long ago due to lack of food.

Moving down to the second floor, everything was cleaner. Still covered in dust, but nowhere near as filthy as the space above.

Moon’s footprints from the previous nights of exploration were proof enough that he had explored the building multiple times in search of potential threats.

The two had to crouch in order to move through doorways, but thankfully the ceilings were just high enough that they could stand without issue. For as small as the house was when compared to the daycare, it wasn’t all bad. Large compared to the homes that the pair had crept by in the city. But having had so little first hand experience with houses, it was unclear if this home was on the larger side or not.

Sun was relieved to find that the house was not as cramped as he thought it may be. Surprised, even. Now that he had actually gone inside and seen all of the evidence of Moon’s investigations for himself, he had calmed down considerably.

“This... This might actually work~” Sun chimed, sounding hesitant for a split second, before his chipper tone returned. Thankfully his vocal stammer had gone away.

Moon smiled at his brother, pleased to hear that they were content with their new home.

“We’ll just need to clean up a bit~” Moon replied, a sort of playful tone sneaking into his voice as he spoke.

“Clean up~! Clean up~!” Sun half sang in turn, waving his hands about slightly as a show of excitement.

Yes. This could work.

The building was secure and there would be no issue maintaining power.

This was a perfectly suitable home for a pair of runaway animatronics. If fate remained kind, they would keep it. They would tend to it.

If they were lucky, maybe they could even come to love it. Just maybe.

#Rebranded #Rebranded AU #Rebranded Storyline #Sundrop #Moondrop #Daycare Attendant #FNAF #fnaf:sb #FNAF AU

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blamebrampton · 2 years ago

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I saw your reblog about nuclear and uh...

Are you a nuclear scientist? I don't really think too much about people's "real" lives on here (I like my anonymity on here). But if you are, um, wow you just got more intimidating.

Heh! I’m not intimidating, I’m the person dogs run up to in the park! Not a nuclear scientist, either, but I’ve been writing on science and tech topics including power tech and policy since the late 1980s, so I’ve spoken to multiple nuclear scientists over the decades as part of that.

The problems with nuclear have always been time/cost to build and safety of running, disposal and decommissioning. In the past, the reliability, comparatively low total greenhouse emissions over the lifetime of the plant (including construction and running) and comparatively low risk made the high cost and long build time worthwhile, because coal, gas and oil kill far more people more regularly and make many more ill.

That’s not to say that arguments about nuclear waste disposal and plants being dangerous are wrong: they’re real problems. But compared to 50,000 coal deaths per annum in the US alone, they’re small problems. And then there’s catastrophic climate change.

However, while nuclear plant designs have become cleverer, cheaper and easier to construct, the speed of improvement in solar and wind has far outstripped it and now renewable power generation costs are the lowest in many markets. Renewables aren’t all sunshine and roses, there are distribution and storage issues and environmental costs for the mining required to build plant, but it does look as though this is the sector that is the future of power generation, on simple market grounds. Anyone telling you it’s not possible is basing their arguments on 1980s’ tech.

In Australia, where I now live, there are some loud political voices who are now calling for nuclear. Ironically, it would have been great if they had built plant here 40 years ago given the geologically stable ground of most of the continent but those same voices were then shrieking against it to protect their coal interests. Never trust an Australian mining billionaire. (Or media billionaire!)

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cleangreen0 · 3 days ago

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What Happens to Solar Panels at the End of Their Life

Discover the challenges and opportunities in managing end-of-life solar panels. Learn about recycling and disposal methods and how innovative solutions are shaping a sustainable future for renewable energy. Explore what happens when solar panels reach the end of their lifespan. Uncover the future of solar panel disposal and sustainability from recycling innovations to environmental impacts.

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b2bbusiness · 2 months ago

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Energy Insurance Market: An In-Depth Analysis of Trends and Growth Opportunities

The energy insurance market plays a critical role in safeguarding energy businesses against the unique and significant risks they face. As the global energy sector continues to evolve, the demand for tailored insurance solutions has grown, reflecting shifts in energy production, climate change, and regulatory landscapes. This article explores the current trends, drivers, challenges, and future growth opportunities in the energy insurance market.

Key Drivers of the Energy Insurance Market

1. Transition to Renewable Energy

The global shift towards renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydropower has created new insurance demands. Projects in this sector often require bespoke policies to cover risks such as equipment failure, natural disasters, and supply chain disruptions.

2. Increased Climate-Related Risks

The energy sector faces heightened risks due to extreme weather events, including hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. Insurers are developing innovative products to address these challenges, providing coverage for operational disruptions and damage to infrastructure.

3. Technological Advancements

Adopting advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and predictive analytics, has enhanced risk assessment capabilities. These tools enable insurers to design more precise policies, particularly for complex energy projects like offshore drilling or nuclear power plants.

4. Regulatory Pressures

Governments worldwide are introducing stringent regulations to promote sustainable energy practices. Compliance with these regulations often necessitates insurance coverage, further driving market demand.

Market Segmentation

The energy insurance market can be segmented by energy type, coverage type, and region:

1. By Energy Type:

Renewables: Wind, solar, geothermal, and hydropower.

Conventional: Oil, gas, and coal.

Nuclear: Coverage for liability, plant equipment, and decommissioning costs.

2. By Coverage Type:

Property Insurance: Protection for infrastructure and equipment.

Liability Insurance: Covers third-party claims related to accidents or environmental damage.

Business Interruption Insurance: Addresses revenue losses during operational downtime.

Specialty Insurance: Tailored policies for unique risks, such as cyberattacks or political instability.

3. By Region:

North America: Dominated by innovations in shale and renewable energy.

Europe: Strong focus on renewable energy and stringent regulations.

Asia-Pacific: Rapid growth driven by increasing energy demand and infrastructure development.

Middle East & Africa: Predominantly oil and gas-focused, with growing interest in renewable energy.

Challenges in the Energy Insurance Market

Despite its growth potential, the energy insurance market faces several challenges:

High Claims Costs: Damage to large-scale energy projects often leads to significant claim payouts, impacting insurer profitability.

Evolving Risks: The rapid pace of technological and environmental changes makes it difficult for insurers to predict and price risks accurately.

Underinsurance: Smaller players in the energy sector may lack adequate coverage, leaving them vulnerable to financial losses.

Future Growth Opportunities

The energy insurance market is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by several key factors:

1. Expansion of Renewable Energy Projects

As governments and businesses worldwide aim for net-zero emissions, investments in renewable energy projects are set to increase, boosting demand for related insurance products.

2. Focus on Cybersecurity

With the energy sector increasingly relying on digital technologies, insurers are likely to see rising demand for cyber insurance to protect against data breaches and operational disruptions caused by cyberattacks.

3. Emerging Markets

Rapid industrialization and urbanization in emerging economies, particularly in Asia and Africa, are creating substantial opportunities for energy insurers.

4. Tailored Risk Solutions

The need for specialized policies to address complex and unique risks in the energy sector will drive innovation in insurance products.

Buy the Full Report for More Competitor insights into the Energy Insurance Market, Download a Free Report Sample

#Energy Insurance Market

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energyandpowertrends · 3 months ago

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Nuclear Decommissioning Services Market to Experience Significant Growth Through 2031 Amidst Global Push for Safe Nuclear Shutdowns

The Nuclear Decommissioning Services Market size was valued at USD 6.3 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 10.20 billion by 2032 and grow at a CAGR of 5.5% over the forecast period of 2024–2032.

Nuclear decommissioning is the process of safely retiring nuclear facilities from service, which involves decontaminating and dismantling structures, removing spent nuclear fuel, managing radioactive materials, and restoring the environment to prevent any harmful radiation exposure. The market for decommissioning services is expected to rise significantly as many nuclear reactors worldwide approach the end of their service life, particularly in Europe, North America, and parts of Asia-Pacific.

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Market Overview

The Nuclear Decommissioning Services Market encompasses a broad range of services, including site investigation, decontamination, dismantling of structures, waste management, and environmental remediation. These services ensure that nuclear facilities are safely taken offline, radioactive materials are properly disposed of, and environmental risks are minimized.

Nuclear decommissioning is a complex and highly regulated process that requires specialized expertise, sophisticated technology, and stringent safety protocols. The demand for decommissioning services is rising as governments and operators seek to ensure that decommissioned sites meet strict regulatory standards and pose no threat to public health or the environment.

Key Market Drivers

Aging Nuclear Reactors: Many nuclear power plants that were constructed in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s are now reaching the end of their operational lifetimes. This has led to a surge in demand for decommissioning services as reactors are shut down and decommissioned in accordance with regulatory requirements.

Government Regulations and Safety Standards: Governments worldwide have enacted stringent regulations governing the safe decommissioning of nuclear facilities. These regulations ensure that decommissioning processes are carried out with the highest safety and environmental standards, which is driving the need for specialized decommissioning services.

Increased Focus on Environmental Remediation: As public awareness of environmental and health risks associated with radioactive waste grows, there is increasing pressure on governments and nuclear operators to prioritize environmental remediation during the decommissioning process. This includes safely managing radioactive waste and restoring decommissioned sites to their original or usable condition.

Shift Toward Renewable Energy: The global transition toward renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, and hydropower, is leading to the gradual decline of nuclear power in many countries. As a result, more nuclear facilities are being decommissioned, creating significant opportunities in the nuclear decommissioning services market.

Technological Advancements in Decommissioning: Advancements in robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and remote-controlled machinery are making decommissioning processes more efficient and safer. These technologies are helping to reduce the risks associated with dismantling radioactive structures and handling hazardous materials.

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Market Segmentation

The Nuclear Decommissioning Services Market is segmented by service type, reactor type, strategy, and region.

By Service Type

Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D): This involves cleaning and dismantling radioactive equipment, buildings, and systems to reduce radiation levels and safely remove hazardous materials.

Waste Management: The handling, processing, and disposal of radioactive waste generated during the decommissioning process. This includes managing spent nuclear fuel and other high-level waste.

Site Remediation: Restoring the environment and surrounding areas to a safe condition by removing residual contamination and hazardous materials after the facility has been dismantled.

Others: Includes consulting, regulatory compliance services, and project management for complex decommissioning projects.

By Reactor Type

Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR): The most common type of reactor in the world, used extensively in commercial nuclear power plants.

Boiling Water Reactor (BWR): Another common reactor type, used in nuclear power generation, with decommissioning needs as plants reach the end of their lifecycle.

Gas-Cooled Reactor (GCR): Used in select nuclear plants, primarily in the UK and Europe, these reactors have unique decommissioning challenges due to their design.

Others: Includes smaller research reactors and experimental reactors, which also require decommissioning as they age.

By Strategy

Immediate Dismantling (DECON): Involves promptly dismantling the facility and removing radioactive materials after the reactor is shut down, allowing for a quicker return of the site to normal use.

Safe Enclosure (SAFSTOR): A delayed decommissioning strategy where the plant is maintained in a safe condition for several decades before final dismantling takes place. This approach allows radiation levels to decrease naturally, reducing the risk to workers.

Entombment: A less common strategy where radioactive materials are permanently sealed within the facility, often covered with concrete, to prevent radiation from escaping. This method is typically used for smaller facilities or when dismantling poses significant risks.

Regional Analysis

Europe: Europe is the largest market for nuclear decommissioning services, with countries like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom leading the way. Germany’s decision to phase out nuclear energy by 2022, coupled with the aging nuclear fleet in France, has created significant demand for decommissioning services in the region. The European Union’s stringent regulations on nuclear safety and waste management also contribute to the market’s growth.

North America: The United States and Canada are key markets in North America, with several nuclear plants nearing decommissioning. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) have established comprehensive decommissioning regulations that are driving demand for specialized services.

Asia-Pacific: In the Asia-Pacific region, countries like Japan and South Korea are ramping up their decommissioning efforts following nuclear shutdowns. Japan’s response to the Fukushima Daiichi disaster has accelerated the decommissioning of older reactors, with a growing focus on safety and environmental impact.

Middle East & Africa: While nuclear energy is less prominent in this region, some countries are beginning to explore nuclear decommissioning services as they plan the eventual shutdown of facilities or decommission research reactors.

Latin America: Brazil and Argentina have operational nuclear reactors, with future decommissioning projects expected as these plants age. As Latin American nations explore the long-term management of nuclear power, demand for decommissioning services will increase.

Current Market Trends

Collaborative Projects: Governments and private sector players are increasingly collaborating to manage large-scale decommissioning projects. Public-private partnerships are common, allowing for more efficient and cost-effective decommissioning solutions.

Focus on Cost Reduction: The high cost of decommissioning has led to a focus on cost-saving innovations, including the use of new technologies and optimized project management strategies to reduce overall project expenses.

Growth in Waste Management Solutions: As decommissioning projects generate significant amounts of radioactive waste, the demand for advanced waste management technologies and services is growing. This includes the development of long-term storage solutions for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste.

About Us:

SNS Insider is a global leader in market research and consulting, shaping the future of the industry. Our mission is to empower clients with the insights they need to thrive in dynamic environments. Utilizing advanced methodologies such as surveys, video interviews, and focus groups, we provide up-to-date, accurate market intelligence and consumer insights, ensuring you make confident, informed decisions. Contact Us: Akash Anand — Head of Business Development & Strategy [email protected] Phone: +1–415–230–0044 (US) | +91–7798602273 (IND)

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credenceresearchdotblog · 3 months ago

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The Nuclear Decommissioning Services Market is projected to grow from USD 198,680 million in 2024 to USD 398,797.25 million by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 9.10% over the forecast period. The nuclear decommissioning services market is witnessing robust growth as countries around the world retire aging nuclear power plants and manage the complex process of dismantling and cleaning up nuclear facilities. The nuclear decommissioning process involves several phases, including the decontamination, deconstruction, and safe disposal of radioactive materials. This process is critical to ensuring that closed nuclear facilities do not pose long-term environmental or health risks.

Browse the full report at https://www.credenceresearch.com/report/nuclear-decommissioning-services-market

Market Overview

The global nuclear decommissioning services market is projected to grow steadily in the coming years. A growing emphasis on clean energy alternatives, aging nuclear infrastructure, safety concerns, and stricter regulatory frameworks are driving the need for decommissioning services. According to market reports, the industry was valued at over USD 5 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach approximately USD 10 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%–8%.

Key Market Drivers

1. Aging Nuclear Reactors: Many nuclear reactors built during the mid-20th century are now reaching the end of their operational lifespans. According to the World Nuclear Association, over 400 nuclear reactors were operational worldwide in 2023, with several of them nearing or surpassing 40 years of operation. This has resulted in an increased demand for decommissioning services as these reactors are gradually phased out.

2. Safety and Environmental Concerns: The Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011 underscored the dangers posed by aging nuclear reactors and heightened public scrutiny of nuclear energy safety standards. Governments and organizations are now more focused on ensuring that nuclear plants are properly decommissioned to prevent long-term environmental contamination, which has led to the implementation of stringent regulatory frameworks.

3. Shift Toward Renewable Energy: Several countries are transitioning away from nuclear energy in favor of renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydropower. This shift is particularly noticeable in regions such as Europe, where countries like Germany have committed to phasing out all nuclear power by 2025 under the Energiewende policy. The decommissioning of nuclear plants has created significant business opportunities for companies specializing in this field.

4. Technological Advancements: The development of advanced technologies, such as robotic systems, remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), and automated equipment, has streamlined the decommissioning process. These technologies enable more efficient dismantling and handling of hazardous materials while reducing human exposure to radiation. These innovations have made nuclear decommissioning safer, faster, and more cost-effective, further boosting the market.

Challenges

While the nuclear decommissioning services market offers substantial opportunities, it also faces challenges. The complexity of decommissioning nuclear facilities, high costs, and long timelines (often exceeding 30 years for full dismantling) make this a capital-intensive and time-consuming industry. Moreover, the disposal of radioactive waste poses significant logistical and environmental challenges, as governments continue to grapple with finding safe, long-term storage solutions.

Key Player Analysis:

Areva Group

Babcock International Group PLC

GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy

Westinghouse Electric Company LLC

Jacobs Engineering Group

Fluor Corporation

Studsvik AB

AECOM

EDF (Électricité de France)

Rosatom State Corporation

Segmentation:

By Reactor Type:

Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)

Gas Cooled Reactor (GCR)

Others (Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR), etc.)

By Decommissioning Strategy:

Immediate Dismantling

Deferred Dismantling

Entombment

By Region:

North America

Canada

Latin America

Brazil

Argentina

Mexico

Rest of Latin America

Europe

Germany

Spain

France

Italy

Russia

Rest of Europe

Asia Pacific

China

India

Japan

Australia

South Korea

ASEAN

Rest of Asia Pacific

Middle East

GCC

Israel

Rest of Middle East

Africa

South Africa

North Africa

Central Africa

Browse the full report at https://www.credenceresearch.com/report/nuclear-decommissioning-services-market

About Us:

Credence Research is committed to employee well-being and productivity. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, we have implemented a permanent work-from-home policy for all employees.

Contact:

Credence Research

Please contact us at +91 6232 49 3207

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.credenceresearch.com

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avocodedigital · 3 months ago

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Nuclear Power Rising - Fossil Fuels Persist

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The Rise of Nuclear Power

The conversation surrounding energy production has increasingly focused on sustainable and environmentally friendly methods to meet global demands. Among the contenders, **nuclear power** is emerging as a potent solution. Its appeal lies in its ability to generate large amounts of electricity without the carbon emissions associated with fossil fuels. As climate concerns escalate, nuclear energy is receiving renewed attention as part of the energy transition required to reduce our carbon footprint.

Why Nuclear Energy is Gaining Favor

Nuclear power has several advantages that make it a compelling option for future energy needs:

Low Carbon Emissions: Nuclear power plants produce minimal greenhouse gases during operation, aligning with global goals for carbon neutrality.

High Energy Output: A single nuclear reactor can generate immense amounts of energy, enough to power millions of homes. This efficiency is hard to beat.

Reliability: Unlike renewable sources such as wind and solar that depend on weather conditions, nuclear plants provide a stable and continuous supply of electricity.

The technological advancements in reactor design and safety protocols have made nuclear an attractive choice again for countries seeking to curb emissions without compromising on energy needs. Moreover, the advent of small modular reactors (SMRs) promises more flexibility and lower initial costs, making nuclear power accessible to more countries.

Challenges in Replacing Fossil Fuels

Despite the rising interest and advantages, nuclear power is unlikely to replace traditional fossil fuels completely in the near future. Several challenges hinder a full transition:

Economic Obstacles

The costs associated with building and maintaining nuclear power plants are substantial. Initial expenses are hefty due to the intricate technology and stringent safety measures required. Additionally, the timeline for constructing a nuclear plant can extend over a decade, posing significant time barriers that other energy sources don’t face.

Political and Public Concerns

Public perception and political factors significantly impact nuclear power development. **Accidents**, such as Chernobyl and Fukushima, have left a deep mark on public consciousness, fostering fear and resistance toward new nuclear projects. Overcoming these perceptions requires extensive education and transparent communication about the safety and necessity of nuclear energy.

Nuclear Waste Management

Handling **nuclear waste** remains a persistent issue. Although the volume of waste generated is relatively small compared to the amount of energy produced, its radioactive nature necessitates safe and long-term storage solutions. Countries continue to grapple with finding sustainable waste disposal methods that are both environmentally responsible and socially acceptable.

The Resilience of Fossil Fuels

Despite the environmental impacts and advancements in clean energy, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy landscape. Here’s why fossil fuels persist:

Infrastructure Investment

The existing infrastructure for fossil fuel extraction, refinement, and distribution is vast and well-established. Shifting away from this network requires significant investments, not only in new technologies like nuclear or renewables but in modifying or decommissioning old facilities.

Affordability and Accessibility

Fossil fuels remain relatively cheap and abundant, especially in regions with established supply chains. In many parts of the world, they provide a cost-effective energy supply, making a full transition to nuclear or other alternatives financially challenging for both governments and consumers.

Energy Security

For many countries, energy security is a priority, and reliance on fossil fuels is seen as a way to ensure consistent energy availability. By maintaining control over their fossil fuel resources, nations can safeguard against energy shortages and price volatility.

The Future of Global Energy

The global energy narrative is poised at a crossroads where tradition meets innovation. While nuclear power’s role is undoubtedly growing, fossil fuels' stronghold is not easily dismantled. Energy strategies for the future will likely involve a blend of different sources, optimizing the strengths of each to achieve environmental goals while ensuring reliable supply.

Hybrid Energy Systems

The concept of hybrid energy systems, which integrate diverse energy sources like nuclear, solar, wind, and fossil fuels, is gaining traction. Such systems can balance the demand load and supply fluctuations, ensuring a seamless and stable energy flow.

Policy and Innovation

Effective governmental policies and technological innovations will be crucial in transitioning towards more sustainable energy systems. International cooperation and investment in research and development can drive breakthroughs in nuclear technology and uncover safer waste management practices.

The Road Ahead

In conclusion, while nuclear power is undoubtedly on the rise, claiming a more substantial role in global energy supply, the complexity of the energy landscape means that fossil fuels will remain a significant player for the foreseeable future. As technologies evolve and societal priorities shift, the energy sector will continue to transform, gradually integrating cleaner and more efficient options. This ongoing transition demands **innovative solutions** and broad engagement from industry leaders, policymakers, and communities worldwide. By leveraging the advantages of nuclear and minimizing the downsides of fossil fuels, the global community can move towards a more sustainable and secure energy future. Want more? Join the newsletter: https://avocode.digital/newsletter/

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mariacallous · 1 year ago

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One hundred miles west of Johannesburg in South Africa, the Komati Power Station is hard to miss, looming above the flat grassland and farming landscapes like an enormous eruption of concrete, brick, and metal.

When the coal-fired power station first spun up its turbines in 1961, it had twice the capacity of any existing power station in South Africa. It has been operational for more than half a century, but as of October 2022, Komati has been retired—the stacks are cold and the coal deliveries have stopped.

Now a different kind of activity is taking place on the site, transforming it into a beacon of clean energy: 150 MW of solar, 70 MW of wind, and 150 MW of storage batteries. The beating of coal-fired swords into sustainable plowshares has become the new narrative for the Mpumalanga province, home to most of South Africa’s coal-fired power stations, including Komati.

To get here, the South African government has had to think outside the box. Phasing out South Africa’s aging coal-fired power station fleet—which supplies 86 percent of the country’s electricity—is expensive and politically risky, and could come at enormous social and economic cost to a nation already struggling with energy security and socioeconomic inequality. In the past, bits and pieces of energy-transition funding have come in from organizations such as the World Bank, which assisted with the Komati repurposing, but for South Africa to truly leave coal behind, something financially bigger and better was needed.

That arrived at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, in November 2021, in the form of a partnership between South Africa, European countries, and the US. Together, they made a deal to deliver $8.5 billion in loans and grants to help speed up South Africa’s transition to renewables, and to do so in a socially and economically just way.

This agreement was the first of what’s being called Just Energy Transition Partnerships, or JETPs, an attempt to catalyze global finance for emerging economies looking to shift energy reliance away from fossil fuels in a way that doesn’t leave certain people and communities behind.

Since South Africa’s pioneering deal, Indonesia has signed an agreement worth $20 billion, Vietnam one worth $15.5 billion, and Senegal one worth $2.75 billion. Discussions are taking place for a possible agreement for India. Altogether, around $100 billion is on the table.

There’s significant enthusiasm for JETPs in the climate finance arena, particularly given the stagnancy of global climate finance in general. At COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries signed up to a goal of mobilizing $100 billion of climate finance for developing countries per year by 2020. None have met that target, and the agreement lapses in 2025. The hope is that more funding for clear-cut strategies and commitments will lead to quicker moves toward renewables.

South Africa came into the JETP agreement with a reasonably mature plan for a just energy transition, focusing on three sectors: electricity, new energy vehicles, and green hydrogen. Late last year, it fleshed that out with a detailed Just Energy Transition investment plan. Specifically, the plan centers on decommissioning coal plants, providing alternative employment for those working in coal mining, and accelerating the development of renewable energy and the green economy. It is a clearly defined but big task.

South Africa’s coal mining and power sector employs around 200,000 people, many in regions with poor infrastructure and high levels of poverty. So the “just” part of the “just energy transition” is critical, says climate finance expert Malango Mughogho, who is managing director of ZeniZeni Sustainable Finance Limited in South Africa and a member of the United Nations High-Level Expert Group on net-zero emissions commitments.

“People are going to lose their jobs. Industries do need to shift so, on a net basis, the average person living there needs to not be worse off from before,” she says. This is why the project focuses not only on the energy plants themselves, but also on reskilling, retraining, and redeployment of coal workers.

In a country where coal is also a major export, there are economic and political sensitivities around transitioning to renewables, and that poses a challenge in terms of how the project is framed. “Given the high unemployment rate in South Africa as well … you cannot sell it as a climate change intervention,” says Deborah Ramalope, head of climate policy analysis at the policy institute Climate Analytics in Berlin. “You really need to sell it as a socioeconomic intervention.”

That would be a hard sell if the only investment coming in were $8.5 billion—an amount far below what’s needed to completely overhaul a country’s energy sector. But JETPs aren’t intended to completely or even substantially bankroll these transitions. The idea is that this initial financial boost signals to private financiers both within and outside South Africa that things are changing.

Using public finance to leverage private investment is a common and often successful practice, Mughogho says. The challenge is to make the investment prospects as attractive as possible. “Typically private finance will move away from something if they consider it to be too risky and they’re not getting the return that they need,” she says. “So as long as those risks have been clearly identified and then managed in some way, then the private sector should come through.” This is good news, as South Africa has forecast it will need nearly $100 billion to fully realize the just transition away from coal and toward clean vehicles and green hydrogen as outlined in its plan.

Will all of that investment arrive? It’s such early days with the South African JETP that there’s not yet any concrete indication of whether the approach will work.

But the simple fact that such high-profile, high-dollar agreements are being signed around just transitions is cause for hope, says Haley St. Dennis, head of just transitions at the Institute for Human Rights and Business in Salt Lake City, Utah. “What we have seen so far, particularly from South Africa, which is the furthest along, is very promising,” she says. These projects demonstrate exactly the sort of international cooperation needed for successful climate action, St. Dennis adds.

The agreements aren’t perfect. For example, they may not rule out oil and gas as bridging fuels between coal and renewables, says St. Dennis. “The rub is that, especially for many of the JETP countries—which are heavily coal-dependent, low- and middle-income economies—decarbonization can’t come at any cost,” she says. “That especially means that it can’t threaten what is often already tenuous energy security and energy access for their people, and that's where oil and gas comes in in a big way.”

Ramalope says they also don’t go far enough. “I think the weakness of JETPs is that they’re not encouraging 1.5 [degrees] Celsius,” she says, referring to the limit on global warming set as a target by the Paris Agreement in 2015. In Senegal, which is not coal-dependent, the partnership agreement is to achieve 40 percent renewables in Senegal’s electricity mix. But Ramalope says analysis suggests the country could achieve double this amount. “I think that’s a missed opportunity.”

Another concern is that these emerging economies could be simply trapping themselves in more debt with these agreements. While there’s not much detail about the relative proportions of grants and loans in South Africa’s agreement, St. Dennis says most of the funding is concessional, or low-interest loans. “Why add more debt when the intention is to dramatically catalyze decarbonization in a very short timescale?” she asks. Grants themselves are estimated to be a very small component of the overall funding—around 5 percent.

But provided they generate the funding needed to bring emissions down as desired, the view of JETPs is largely positive, says Sierd Hadley, an economist with the Overseas Development Institute in London. For Hadley, the concern is whether JETPs can be sustained once the novelty has worn off, and once they aren’t being featured as part of a COP or G20 leadup. But he notes that the fact that the international community has managed to deliver at least four of the five JETP deals so far—with India yet to be locked in—shows there is pressure to make good on the promises.

“On the whole, the fact that there has been a plan, and that that plan is broadly in progress, suggests that on balance this has been fairly successful,” he says. “It’s a very significant moment for climate finance.”

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