#Correlation =/= causation
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Not to vent on tumblr for the first time in a while but
Hey what do you do when you're in an episode of having self loathing delusions of everything that's gone wrong and will go wrong in your life being your fault specifically but your tried and true coping technique for beating yourself up for daring to think you're unique and special enough to be the main character of real life isn't working do I just have to like sit with my brain and take it or
#muppet barking#muppet barks#Neg#Correlation =/= causation#However#The coincidences sure do love stacking up :â˘)#And they keep stacking and they keep stacking :â˘)#I am never going to be the main character in anything even if that Is how life worked in the slightest and I know this#But god if I was I'd be a villainous force of nature that can't go up without taking others down with me
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starting a new internet law: I call it "roach's law" - based on true events that have happened on my profile. every time an account attempts to argue with me that biotic organisms - particularly insects and arthropods - have no significance or intelligence and should be disregarded as "unimportant", upon checking their profile they are almost always shamelessly far-right/alt-right, anti-science, anti-education, or voted for Trump in the 2016 or 2024 presidential election. major bonus points if they are all of the above.
#zoology#entomology#insects#arthropods#arachnids#bugblr#invertabrates#correlation doesnt always equal causation but one can only help but wonder
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âvideo games make you violentâ final fantasy xiv zenos yae galvus grew up with no video games and look how that turned out
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1983, the year that Star Wars Episode VI â Return of the Jedi was released, also saw the release of no less than three films adapted from the work of Stephen King: Christine, Cujo, and The Dead Zone. At the time, this was the largest number of Stephen King films released in a single year.
This record would stand until 2017, when it was exceeded by four Stephen King films in a single year: 1922, The Dark Tower, Gerald's Game, and It Chapter One. 2017 also saw the release of Star Wars Episode VIII â The Last Jedi.
As we all know, correlation implies causation, which raises a very important question: do Stephen King movies cause films whose titles contain the word "Jedi", or do films whose titles contain the word "Jedi" cause Stephen King movies?
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Happy Fakie Friday! Today I'd like to talk about my personal definition of what makes a toy a "fakie", as I've had people bridle (hee hee) at some of my Fakie Friday picks in the past.
First, let's talk about what doesn't define a fakie.

A fakie doesn't have to be a bootleg (though they can be).


A fakie doesn't have to be made by an unknown, fly-by-night company. Remco was founded in 1949, Buddy L's toy division was founded in 1921.

A fakie doesn't have to have incomprehensible or poorly designed packaging.



A fakie doesn't have to be a poor quality or poorly thought out toy.
Okay, so what IS a fakie?
Fakies aren't about non-Hasbro horse toys being "bad" and Hasbro horse toys being "good"; it's about how impactful the My Little Pony brand is. Even in the years where the toyline was completely dormant, your average joe would look at a rainbow horse with a heart on its bum and think "My Little Pony."

^ This horse in Hercules isn't proportioned like a MLP at all but in the Year of Our Lord 1997 everyone was talking about "the scene where Pegasus was almost seduced by a My Little Pony." (Though the pink horse was actually the bad guys in disguise.)
I love fakies! But no matter how innovative and high quality are, they cannot escape being compared to the platonic ideal: a Real My Little Pony.
So here is my ultimate test of whether a toy horse is a fakie:
Throw away its packaging. Lose all its accessories. Toss it in a baggie with random small toys and hang it on a hook in Savers, Value Village, or Goodwill.
If your elderly relative who knows nothing about toys points out the baggie and says to you, the collector: "Oh, here's one with a My Little Pony in it", then it's a fakie. ;)
#my little pony#fakies#Fakie Friday#some horses that are not fakies: Breyers; Stablemates; Schleich#if you are sculpting a horse dick onto the stallions in your toy horse line then it is not a fakie#I mean correlation is not causation#that's not WHY those aren't fakies#but that little data point does encapsulate the difference in vibe#being 'just a horse' versus being a whimsical fantasy protagonist#Barbie horse are usually not fakies either; they are accessories to Barbie#like her jeeps and boats and sports cars#or Ken
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I actually wrote an essay on this in college. Fallout New Vegas has strong themes of anti-authoritarianism and self-determination, as well as the misuse of technology. And as we all know, trans women are predominantly radical-left tech nerds. Combine this with a game design that focuses heavily on self-expression and roleplay, and you'll attract trans women like fruitflies to a big juicy grapefruit.
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becoming green on shinigami eyes made me start hrt
#test#image of david mitchell manifesting with the quote causation is not correlation which i promptly ignore
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after careful consideration, what I've decided is that the shorter xander's hair is the worse he becomes. idk WHAT it does to him but he's gotta stop cutting his hair it makes him into Evil Xander
#correlation does not equal causation unless I say so#but honest to god has anyone else noticed this lmaooo#when a character's hair is longer they're like a better person in this show. it's really funny to me#it's not an infallible rule or anything but it's just something I've noticed in general#funnily enough I think it's the opposite in ats too#xander harris#btvs#buffy the vampire slayer
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Hear me out-
So we know that in ALL the other known universes, Dipper and Mabel die.
Now consider this...
What if in ALL the other known universes, Ford and Bill are together?
HMMM...
#i fucking wonder what series of events led up to these two things being true#they say correlation is not causation BUT-#i feel like this would be a good fanfic idea but i am too lazy to write one#billford#gravity falls
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I dreamed that two separate people sent me an ask about how theyre basing their sif design on the adhd creature design. One had a diagram attached with six pictures of how he morphs into the creature features.
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How likely is it do you think that there are/have been Grimm-based cults? I can't imagine there's Never been Grimm cults, and I'm particularly interested in the idea of there being Grimm cults or even just organizations who Actually Understand the Grimm and safely live alongside them. I think it's such a fascinating idea, I'm very tempted to come up with a mysterious faction that respects/admires the Grimm (like how people did/do respect forces of nature in religion) and (mostly) safely lives alongside them. Any thoughts?
two obvious paths. whether the second is viable depends on how well you trust my basic reading of the grimm as sapient beings who reflect back what theyâre givenâdark mirrorsâbut the first is textually sound without any extrapolation required.
#1: the grimm as gods of war
these are the salient facts:
the grimm follow groups of bandits around to scavenge in the wake of their raids
criminals in mistral sometimes use captive grimm to execute members of rival gangs
grimm are more strongly drawn by violent anger and hatred than by sadness, fear, or other negative emotions.
itâs possible (per âbefore the dawnâ) for one side of a conflict to "ally" with the grimm in battle if the other side is, er, tastier
ok. imagine you have a region where most of the people live in small nomadic groupsâperhaps a steppe or a desert, their subsistence base is herdingâwith smatterings of fortified towns and villages around the edges of the region where thereâs arable land enough to support a larger sedentary population. the nomadic groups canât produce their own weapons/armor (mines, smelters, and forges arenât portable), so theyâll need to either raid or trade with the towns for that. and conflicts between these nomadic groups over territory and other resources are inevitable.
how do the grimm figure in this region?
well a) the grimm are going to be following the nomadic groups around, with more warlike groups attracting more grimm, and b) grimm will fight alongside people against a common enemy if their "allies" are calmer or otherwise less appealing.
this is like⌠a perfect storm for the nomadic groups to start venerating "their" grimm as war-gods, in tandem with fostering warrior-cultures that prize tranquility or joy and mercy in battle; there is no honor in hatred or rage or taking pleasure in killing (our grimm turn against those warriors who lose themselves to bloodlust), so a good warrior must be calm, decisive, and swift, and never prolong a fight unnecessarily. but itâs also beneficial to make oneâs enemies fearful and angry, or provoke them into hatred.
all it takes is one or two warriors who kept a cool head in battle noticing that the grimm ignored them to go after another warrior who went berserk and then interpreting this as a moral judgment. historically, we know grimm were thought to be the vengeful or corrupted spirits of animals, or animals possessed by demons; both are understandings that encourage this sort of thinking. these are animal spirits that cannot rest because someone killed them without giving due respect, and now they seek to punish those who commit such wrongs⌠so weâd better take care to treat our adversaries in battle and the animals we hunt with honor and mercy.
and oh, we should pay our respects to the grimm, too. perhaps make some offerings. they eat the corpses of the slain after a battle, so⌠a) we mustnât be wasteful when we hunt, it isnât respectful, and b) we should consider the grimm in our funeral customs.
this is a very basic. BASIC human impulse. humans will try to propitiate the fucking sky because weâre so good at pattern recognition and also anthropomorphizing things that weâll find patterns and read meaning into the most random coincidences. take that and add it to the fact that it legitimately is possible to form alliances with grimm⌠fgrhjsv
under these conditions grimm-worship probably tends to look something like:
warrior cultures that prize moderation, calmness, efficiency, and clever mockery or intimidation of the enemy in battle,
funeral customs that ritualize feeding the dead to grimm, and/or ritual sacrifice of captured enemies,
grimm viewed as battlefield psychopomps and/or patron spirits of warriors, whether as a class or as individuals or both, and
incorporation of grimm-like designs or motifs into armor and clothing of warriors, to intimidate enemies.
with wide variation in the details and elaborations. the reason for this common set of foundational practices is that religion is practical. itâs not arbitrary. it isnât pretend. prayer and ritual are things people do because it works, or itâs believed to work, and the right methods are figured out through trial and error long before they coagulate into tradition. so with something like grimm, whose behavior really can be meaningfully influenced, similar patterns will emerge across different cultures because whether a given practice does or doesnât work is a) more than random chance or coincidence, and b) extremely easy to identify because if it doesnât work the grimm will attack you.
& #2, the grimm as nature gods
these are my presuppositions, based on extrapolation from the text:
the grimm have a physiological need for aura, which they can get by siphoning; they eat their prey in order to extract aura from the remains.
grimm attraction to emotions is akin to our attraction to the aroma and taste of food; strong emotions herald deep auras or excite aura so itâs more "nutritious" for the grimm, so they hunt by following emotion.
because aura/soul separates from the body at death, siphoning aura from a living person is much more efficient than killing and eating; grimm will prefer to be fed aura by someone alive over hunting if possible.
because aura can be channeled outward through tools, clothing, etc, it can also be channeled into a repository and stored for a while; this seems to be how the grimm lures in arrowfell work.
grimm are intelligent, emotional, social creatures who can learn to recognize certain groups of people as 'safe' or as friends/allies, without salem.
grimm reflect back the emotional energy theyâre given; theyâre not "attracted" to anger or pain per se, they just mirror it. bristle and draw your weapon at a grimm, and the grimm will charge at you. remain calm and retreat slowly, and the grimm will keep its distance too.
if all of these presuppositions are true, you can propitiate grimm by saturating an object with aura and leaving that out for the grimm on the regular. i imagine that organic/living things that naturally have aura would work best for this purpose; sacrificing an animal or a portion of your harvest is intuitive, and if fervent religious belief alone isnât enough to infuse something with aura, then priests or religious officials whose auras have been unlocked and trained will do the trick.
if aura-saturated offerings arenât possible, then youâd need someone with aura training to channel aura to the grimm through, like, a stick, or bare-handed if they were brave enough or confident enough. this is a more uncomfortable option (like physically) but we have a canonical example of a character doing it: she found it disconcerting, but not painful, and itâs implied that the grimm didnât attack her at any point during. so a) it probably doesnât do any more harm than having oneâs defensive aura break, and b) stopping the flow of aura to the grimm by moving away wonât provoke the grimm to attack.
as unpleasant the prospect might seem, if it clearly worked to reduce or eliminate grimm attacks on the community, people would do this. people would absolutely do this. the big hurdle lies in discovering that this is possibleâlike youâd need someone to willingly approach a grimm, lay a hand on it, and channel aura into it without knowing what will happen, and the kind of person who would even think to TRY that is very rareâbut once it was known? religious belief motivates people do all sorts of unpleasant, uncomfortable, or even outright painful and harmful things to themselves. fasting. self-flagellation. hermitage.
like⌠waves hands. if itâs a known thing in a community that grimm wonât attack anyone if a few people go into the wilderness every morning to stand there and pour aura into grimm who pass by until theyâre tapped out for the day, lots of people will be fully willing and able to do that. far more than are willing and able to become huntsmen: itâs not dangerous or difficult, itâs just going to tire you out on your assigned days. and if you have say, a village of a hundred people of whom ten are able to do it, you can rotate so no individual has to do it more often than thrice a month. NBD.
and if nothing else except the emotional mirroring thing is true, then you can⌠more or less propitiate grimm by doing whatever, because in this case what makes propitiation effective is community belief that it works: if you and everyone else around you believes that wearing pendants carved in the likeness of grimm and pouring a libation of wine outside the village gates to entreat the grimm for safe passage through the wilds is effective in making the grimm leave you alone, then no oneâs going to panic or raise the alarm upon seeing a grimm wandering around in the barley field, and the grimm wonât freak out either.
if you believe that a grimm is a being that can be appeased and you cross paths with one in the woods, youâre going to do what you believe will keep you safe; for a huntsman, thatâs "draw a weapon and attack," but for you that might be "hold up your grimm pendant and recite a prayer to politely wish it well and ask for its blessing in return," whichâif the grimm just reflect your emotional energy back at youâwill probably make the grimm pause and look at you for a moment before continuing on, which confirms and reinforces your belief that this is the correct way to deal with grimm. This Is How Religion Works.
so all that to say, as long as iâm correct about at least one of these presuppositionsâthe one with the strongest textual evidence, no lessâthen propitiating the grimm will reduce their aggression dramatically if not stop it altogether. and if thatâs the case then iâd imagine grimm-worship is quite common and also varied in more remote regions where human-grimm encounters are frequent.
the shape of that worship will evolve out of how people in a given community figured out that you can do this with grimm. if one person tries a certain thing and it works, and then more people try the same thing and it works for them to, then that is going to become known as the Thing That Works and it will be gradually refined and elaborated on from generation to generation. and on the other side of the mountains they might be doing the same process but with a completely different thing that also worked the first time.
so you might have a village making huge ritual productions of preparing a feast for the grimm with a portion of the harvest, orchestrated by a coterie of priests who fill the offerings with aura⌠and in the hinterlands a few hundred miles away you might have a group of nomadic herders who leave the bones of every sheep they eat for the grimm and also have elaborate coming-of-age rituals where you go into the wilderness to prove yourself to the grimm by baring your soul⌠and up north on the coast you might have a whaling town where sailors pray to something like the leviathan or the feilong as a sea-god because their ancestors happened to stumble into a symbiotic relationship with a giant grimm that preys on whales and realized these little guys in boats make better hunting partners than they do snacks. etc.
basically if you accept a presupposition that the grimm arenât "soulless evil monsters whose sole purpose is to kill humans" and consider them as beings that have some rhyme or reason as to when theyâre aggressive and when theyâre not, and the rhyme or reason is something humans/faunus could plausibly figure out how to accommodate and/or influence, there are a lot of ways to build a grimm cult. âcause religion is at its core humans trying to understand the world so we can keep ourselves safe, healthy, and comfortable; worshipping grimm is just a cultural framework for a threat management program.
think about it in those terms, and take however you think grimm work and ask "what could people Do to lower the risk of grimm attacking them?" and "what might people Do that doesnât really have an effect but seems like it maybe does?" and then start to elaborate from there with "okay, what stories do people tell to explain why they do these things and how they learned to do these things? how do they conceive of the grimm and their relationship to grimm? how does this shape the social and moral values of this religion?" etc.
praxis comes first, belief second. and the praxis develops through trial and error with the basic goal of "how can we make the grimm leave us alone?" so things that clearly donât work will be discarded. (with âclearly donât workâ meaning "we did this and grimm immediately attacked us"; people will tend to take "we did this and grimm didnât attack us for two months" to mean "it worked! we should do it every other month!")
#and thatâs how you build a religion :)#worship is practical! itâs meant to be effective! humans are really bad at distinguishing correlation from causation so we#develop irrational belief systems based on coincidence and our bonkers pattern recognition#which is why all religions ever are So Weird. WEâRE weird.#but itâs practical nevertheless. people do it because it works or it seems to work and the belief systems are just us#telling stories about ourselves#to explain why we do stuff because ''it works'' isnât satisfying. we ALL have the toddler urge to go BUT WHY??#and then we come up with a better story. scientists do this also they just invented a process that#puts up guardrails against the universal human reflex to go ''well i put a bucket outside hoping it would rain and it did rain. therefore#putting buckets outside makes it rain.'' lmfao
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If I had a nickel for every time a beloved family member died in an election year that also had a pokemon app release, Iâd have two nickels.
Which isnât a lot but itâs weird that it happened twice.
#grief#i remember playing pokemon go when dad died#and now it is pokemon tcgp#kiki shouts into the void#i know correlation is not causation#and yet
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Thats not how any of this works.
"Obesity is responsible" you literally cannot prove this. What the fresh hell.
The amount of stories we've seen through this blog of fat people not getting the bare minimum of cancer screenings, and told to loose weight only to have cancer, is disgusting. You cannot take these statements seriously when fatphobic doctors don't give fat people screenings they need.
Im going around in circles and just need to slap people.
-mod squirrel
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I'm trying not to look too deep into the correlation of me starting dressing feminine and people coming up to me asking to model for shit. But this is the second time this has happened in a week.
#correlation does not equal causation#but like it started IMMEDIATELY after I started wearing skirts#text post#randyposting#trans#transgender
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oh i would realize gender things about myself and get into jeffrey combs at the same time. of course i would!
#correlation and causation and all that#sure bruce campbell made me realize things about myself#but it's jeffrey combs i turn to for solace#well ain't that me#jeffrey combs#reanimator#bride of reanimator#beyond reanimator#from beyond 1986#the frighteners
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polls kind of both saved and destroyed tumblr it's so funny
#like maybe it's a correlation isn't causation situation but i do feel this site got more active since polls were introduced???#like you'll regularly see posts get 100k+ notes in less than a month now and i feel that hasn't been happening since#like tumblr superwholock heyday#personal
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