#CBOE Volatility Index

[youthchronical]

It may be a good time for investors to look at less risky ways to stay in the stock market

As President Trump’s “not going to bend at all” approach to tariffs raises recession risk and helped to send the market into a correction last week, investors may want to consider strategies that focus more on the downside — ways to stay invested but stay protected during major stock downswings. Alternative exchange-traded funds are an option, and they have been growing in popularity in recent…

[kc22invesmentsblog]

Understanding Stock Market Volatility: A Closer Look at the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

Written by Delvin The stock market is a dynamic environment, subject to periods of both stability and volatility. Investors and traders alike often monitor the ebb and flow of the market’s volatility, seeking to understand and anticipate its impact on their investments. Central to this quest is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), commonly known as the “fear gauge,” a measure of the market’s…

[misfitwashere]

April 7, 2025 

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

APR 8

READ IN APP

Major indexes on the stock market began down more than 3% today when, as Allison Morrow of CNN reported, a rumor that Trump was considering delaying his tariffs by three months sent stocks surging upward by almost 8%. The rumor was unfounded—it appeared to begin from a small account on X—but it indicated how desperate traders are to see an end to President Donald J. Trump’s trade war.

As soon as the rumor was discredited, the market began to fall again, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement that he is opening trade negotiations with Japan and looking forward to talks with other countries appeared to reassure some traders that Trump's tariffs will not last. The wild swings made the day one of the most volatile in stock market history. It ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 349 points and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite staying relatively flat. Futures for tomorrow are up slightly.

Foreign markets fared badly today, suggesting that the reality of Trump’s tariffs is beginning to sink in. Sam Goldfarb of the Wall Street Journal notes that Hong Kong’s Hang Seng took its biggest dive since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, losing 13%, and that other markets also fell today.

Goldfarb reports that in the U.S., traders are deeply worried about losses but also anxious about missing a rebound if the administration changes its policies. Hence the extreme volatility of the market. Generally, values over 30 are considered indicators of increased risk and uncertainty in the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, the so-called fear gauge. Today, it spiked to 60.

Business leaders are speaking out publicly against Trump’s tariffs. Today, Ken Langone, the co-founder of Home Depot and a major Republican donor, told the Financial Times: “I don’t understand the goddamn formula.”

Senate Republicans are also starting to push back. Seven Republican senators have now signed onto a bill that would limit Trump’s ability to impose tariffs. The power to levy tariffs belongs to Congress, but Congress has permitted a president to adjust tariffs on an emergency basis. Trump declared an emergency, and it is on that ground that he has upended more than 90 years of global economic policy.

Trump has threatened to veto any such legislation, but he will not need to if Senate majority leader John Thune (R-SD) and House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) refuse to bring the measure to a vote. Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill of Politico report that while Republicans express concern about the tariffs in private, leaders will stand with the president because they must have the votes of MAGA lawmakers to pass any of their legislative agenda through Congress, and to get that they will need Trump’s support. Others are worried about incurring Trump’s wrath and, with it, a primary challenger.

“People are skittish. They’re all worried about it,” Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) told Carney and Hill. “But they are putting on a stiff upper lip to act as though nothing is happening and hoping it goes away.”

But so far, it does not look as if it’s going to go away. Today the European Commission has announced 25% countertariffs in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.

Trump’s response to the crisis has been to double down on his tariff plan. This morning he wrote on his social media network that he will impose additional 50% tariffs on China effective on Wednesday unless it drops the retaliatory tariffs it has placed on U.S. products. Rather than backing down, China said it would “fight to the end.”

Today, in a press conference convened in the Oval Office, Trump explained his thinking behind why he has begun a global tariff war. "You know, our country was the strongest, believe it or not, from 1870 to 1913. You know why? It was all tariff based. We had no income tax,” he said. “Then in 1913, some genius came up with the idea of let’s charge the people of our country, not foreign countries that are ripping off our country, and the country was never, relatively, was never that kind of wealth. We had so much wealth we didn’t know what to do with our money. We had meetings, we had committees, and these committees worked tirelessly to study one subject: we have so much money, what are going to do with it, who are we going to give it to? And I hope we’re going to be in that position again.”

Aside from this complete misreading of American history—Civil War income taxes lasted until 1875, for example, tariffs are paid by consumers, the Panics of 1873 and 1893 devastated the economy, few Americans at the time thought the Gilded Age was a golden age, and I have no clue what he’s referring to with the talk about committees—Trump’s larger motivation is clear: he wants to get rid of income taxes.

Congress passed the 1913 Revenue Act imposing income taxes to shift the cost of supporting the government from ordinary Americans, especially the women who by then made up a significant portion of household consumers, to men of wealth. Tariffs were regressive because they fell disproportionately on working-class Americans through their everyday purchases. Income taxes spread costs more evenly, according to a man’s ability to pay. The switch from tariffs to income taxes helped to break the power of the so-called robber barons, the powerful industrialists who controlled the U.S. economy and government in the late nineteenth century.

To get rid of income taxes, Trump and his Republicans have backed the decimation of the government services that support ordinary Americans.

Today, in the Oval Office press conference, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested where they intend to put government money, promising a defense budget of $1 trillion, a significant jump from the current $892 defense budget. “[W]e have to be strong because you’ve got a lot of bad forces out there now,” Trump said.

Allison McCann, Alexandra Berzon, and Hamed Aleaziz of the New York Times reported today that the administration also intends to spend as much as $45 billion over the next two years on new detention facilities for immigrants. In the last fiscal year, the total amount of federal money allocated to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement was about $3.4 billion. The new facilities will be in private hands and will operate with lower standards and less oversight than current detention facilities.

—

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Bill Bramhall

* * * *

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

April 7, 2025

Heather Cox Richardson

Apr 08, 2025

Major indexes on the stock market began down more than 3% today when, as Allison Morrow of CNN reported, a rumor that Trump was considering delaying his tariffs by three months sent stocks surging upward by almost 8%. The rumor was unfounded—it appeared to begin from a small account on X—but it indicated how desperate traders are to see an end to President Donald J. Trump’s trade war.

As soon as the rumor was discredited, the market began to fall again, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement that he is opening trade negotiations with Japan and looking forward to talks with other countries appeared to reassure some traders that Trump's tariffs will not last. The wild swings made the day one of the most volatile in stock market history. It ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 349 points and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite staying relatively flat. Futures for tomorrow are up slightly.

Foreign markets fared badly today, suggesting that the reality of Trump’s tariffs is beginning to sink in. Sam Goldfarb of the Wall Street Journal notes that Hong Kong’s Hang Seng took its biggest dive since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, losing 13%, and that other markets also fell today.

Goldfarb reports that in the U.S., traders are deeply worried about losses but also anxious about missing a rebound if the administration changes its policies. Hence the extreme volatility of the market. Generally, values over 30 are considered indicators of increased risk and uncertainty in the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, the so-called fear gauge. Today, it spiked to 60.

Business leaders are speaking out publicly against Trump’s tariffs. Today, Ken Langone, the co-founder of Home Depot and a major Republican donor, told the Financial Times: “I don’t understand the goddamn formula.”

Senate Republicans are also starting to push back. Seven Republican senators have now signed onto a bill that would limit Trump’s ability to impose tariffs. The power to levy tariffs belongs to Congress, but Congress has permitted a president to adjust tariffs on an emergency basis. Trump declared an emergency, and it is on that ground that he has upended more than 90 years of global economic policy.

Trump has threatened to veto any such legislation, but he will not need to if Senate majority leader John Thune (R-SD) and House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) refuse to bring the measure to a vote. Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill of Politico report that while Republicans express concern about the tariffs in private, leaders will stand with the president because they must have the votes of MAGA lawmakers to pass any of their legislative agenda through Congress, and to get that they will need Trump’s support. Others are worried about incurring Trump’s wrath and, with it, a primary challenger.

“People are skittish. They’re all worried about it,” Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) told Carney and Hill. “But they are putting on a stiff upper lip to act as though nothing is happening and hoping it goes away.”

But so far, it does not look as if it’s going to go away. Today the European Commission has announced 25% countertariffs in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.

Trump’s response to the crisis has been to double down on his tariff plan. This morning he wrote on his social media network that he will impose additional 50% tariffs on China effective on Wednesday unless it drops the retaliatory tariffs it has placed on U.S. products. Rather than backing down, China said it would “fight to the end.”

Today, in a press conference convened in the Oval Office, Trump explained his thinking behind why he has begun a global tariff war. "You know, our country was the strongest, believe it or not, from 1870 to 1913. You know why? It was all tariff based. We had no income tax,” he said. “Then in 1913, some genius came up with the idea of let’s charge the people of our country, not foreign countries that are ripping off our country, and the country was never, relatively, was never that kind of wealth. We had so much wealth we didn’t know what to do with our money. We had meetings, we had committees, and these committees worked tirelessly to study one subject: we have so much money, what are going to do with it, who are we going to give it to? And I hope we’re going to be in that position again.”

Aside from this complete misreading of American history—Civil War income taxes lasted until 1875, for example, tariffs are paid by consumers, the Panics of 1873 and 1893 devastated the economy, few Americans at the time thought the Gilded Age was a golden age, and I have no clue what he’s referring to with the talk about committees—Trump’s larger motivation is clear: he wants to get rid of income taxes.

Congress passed the 1913 Revenue Act imposing income taxes to shift the cost of supporting the government from ordinary Americans, especially the women who by then made up a significant portion of household consumers, to men of wealth. Tariffs were regressive because they fell disproportionately on working-class Americans through their everyday purchases. Income taxes spread costs more evenly, according to a man’s ability to pay. The switch from tariffs to income taxes helped to break the power of the so-called robber barons, the powerful industrialists who controlled the U.S. economy and government in the late nineteenth century.

To get rid of income taxes, Trump and his Republicans have backed the decimation of the government services that support ordinary Americans.

Today, in the Oval Office press conference, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested where they intend to put government money, promising a defense budget of $1 trillion, a significant jump from the current $892 defense budget. “[W]e have to be strong because you’ve got a lot of bad forces out there now,” Trump said.

Allison McCann, Alexandra Berzon, and Hamed Aleaziz of the New York Times reported today that the administration also intends to spend as much as $45 billion over the next two years on new detention facilities for immigrants. In the last fiscal year, the total amount of federal money allocated to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement was about $3.4 billion. The new facilities will be in private hands and will operate with lower standards and less oversight than current detention facilities.

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

[posttexasstressdisorder]

CNN 3/29/2025

BusinessInvesting• 5 min read

Dow closes more than 700 points lower and the S&P 500 is on track for its worst quarter since 2022

By John Towfighi, CNN

Updated: 4:04 PM EDT, Fri March 28, 2025

Source: CNN

US stocks tumbled Friday and a broad selloff gripped Wall Street as investors digested slightly stubborn inflation data and weakening consumer sentiment while wrestling with continued tariff anxiety.

The Dow tumbled and closed lower by 716 points, or 1.7%. The broader S&P 500 fell 1.97% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 2.7%. The slide on Friday put all three major indexes in the red for this week.

The S&P 500 is down more than 5% this year. The benchmark index is on track for its first losing quarter since September 2023 and its worst quarter since September 2022.

US stocks opened the day lower and began to slide as data from the Commerce Department showed inflation in February remained slightly sticky.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 2.5% year-over-year in February, unchanged from January and matching expectations. Yet the core PCE index, which strips out volatile categories like food and energy, ticked up to 2.8% year-over-year from 2.7% in January. That hotter-than-expected rise signals that inflation, while broadly cooling, remains above the Fed’s target of 2%.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment tanked 12% this month, according to the University of Michigan’s latest survey released Friday.

The selloff gradually turned into a rout as investors dumped stocks in industries including technology, autos and airlines. Google (GOOG) slid 4.9%, Stellantis (STLA) slid 4% and Delta Air Lines (DAL) slid 5%.

Lululemon (LULU) stock tumbled 14% on Friday after the company flagged concerns about the outlook for consumer spending on a call with investors.

“We also believe the dynamic macro environment has contributed to a more cautious consumer,” said Calvin McDonald, chief executive at Lululemon.

The selloff in major names wasn’t the only concern for investors. CoreWeave (CRWV), an AI venture backed by chip giant Nvidia (NVDA), had a disappointing debut on the Nasdaq Friday, offering a bleak outlook for both the prospects of a continued AI boom and the market for initial public offerings.

CoreWeave had listed its IPO at $40, which was below its target range of $47 to $55, according to the Wall Street Journal. However, the stock began trading on Friday at $39, below that IPO price.

The poor debut is a sign of cooling enthusiasm for AI as investors continue to debate whether the money being poured into the industry is worth it. It also offers a meager outlook for IPOs this year as markets struggle to look past headwinds from tariffs.

Tariff anxiety continues to roil markets

President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals have also clouded investor sentiment and stoked uncertainty on Wall Street.

Investors continued to grapple with Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of 25% tariffs on all cars shipped into the US, set to go into effect April 3. Trump also announced tariffs on car parts like engines and transmissions, set to take effect “no later than May 3,” according to the proclamation he signed.

Investors sold off stocks amid renewed anxiety about the impact of auto tariffs on the economy. Tariffs are a tax on imported goods, and economists expect Trump’s sweeping tariff proposals will cause an increase in consumer prices and drag on economic growth.

“It’s natural for people to expect higher prices because we haven’t seen a trade war like this since McKinley,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, told CNN’s Matt Egan.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.26% as investors snapped up government bonds, highlighting a risk-averse sentiment amid tariff uncertainty.

Wall Street’s fear gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, surged 16%. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index ticked into “extreme fear” territory, highlighting renewed anxiety among investors.

The tariffs on autos are an escalation in a trade war with the US’ biggest trading partners, threatening to roil global markets and disrupt a deeply intertwined supply chain across North America.

“While the economy appears solid, business executives are adopting a cautious stance on new investments, largely due to the Trump administration’s aggressive and unpredictable tariff policy,” said Matt Stephani, president of Cavanal Hill Investment Management, in an email.

Trump’s decision to announce the tariffs on autos ahead of the April 2 deadline when reciprocal tariffs are set to be revealed — a date dubbed “Liberation Day” by the Trump administration — has caused unease in markets. The early announcement highlights Trump’s commitment to tariffs, testing some investors’ initial hope that they might only be a negotiating tactic.

“We think the proposed tariffs as announced would deliver a big hit to the auto industry, stoking higher costs, higher prices and a sharp decline in US sales,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note Thursday.

“[The] question is what these very aggressive automotive tariffs signal for next week’s announcement on both reciprocal and ex-auto sector tariffs,” Marcelli added.

Wall Street’s outlook sours

Wall Street’s expectations for US stocks this year are being revised down amid continued announcements about tariffs.

Analysts at UBS on Friday trimmed their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,400 from 6,600.

Analysts at Barclays this week lowered their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,900 from 6,600. Goldman Sachs earlier this month lowered its year-end target to 6,200 from 6,500.

Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research, recently lowered his year-end target to 6,400 from 7,000.

Meanwhile, the most actively traded gold futures contract in New York on Friday surged above a record high $3,100. Gold is considered a safe haven amid economic turmoil and a hedge against potential inflation.

Goldman Sachs this week revised its year-end target for gold prices to $3,300, up from $3,100, underscoring how the yellow metal’s rise this year is expected to last amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

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[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: CBOE, Freeport-McMoRan, JinkoSolar, Teck Resources and Voya

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Cboe Global Markets, $CBOE, comes into the week at short term resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

Freeport-McMoRan, $FCX, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI at the midline with the MACD crossed up. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

JinkoSolar, $JKS, comes into the week pushing up towards resistance. The RSI is rising to the midline with the MACD crossed up. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

Teck Resources, $TECK, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI rising over the midline with the MACD about to cross to positive. Look for a break of resistance to participate…

Voya Financial, $VOYA, comes into the week at resistance. The RSI is rising with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

Up Next: Bonus Idea                                                                                        

The Best

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using the Get Premium button above.   

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the first week of February in the books, saw equity markets show resilience with a rebound from an ugly start anticipating tariffs.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its assault on $3000/oz while Crude Oil falls in consolidation in a broad range. The US Dollar Index looks to pause in the drift to the upside while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue to consolidate while Emerging Markets continue a short term move lower.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and stable, making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe consolidation ranges continue to hold the QQQ and SPY just under all-time highs with the IWM consolidating at resistance. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[jeffhirsch]

Market Not Out of October Woods Yet

Aside from weakness earlier in the month, this October has been rather sanguine. S&P 500 and DJIA have recorded new all-time highs and extended a weekly advancing streak to six in a row. But throughout the month the CBOE VIX index has remained stubbornly elevated around 20 and the 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen back above 4.10% while gold is also trading at new all-time highs.

Although the market did close mixed today, DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and 2000 were down while NASDAQ recorded a modest advance, today’s trading seems like a reminder that it is still October, and more volatility is not out of the question. At least until after the dust has settled on the presidential election.

Looking at October’s Election Year seasonal patterns compared to 2024 above, this October’s mid-month strength stands out as being well above average while today’s weakness aligns with the beginning of a typical, seasonal pullback in the second half of the month. Market weakness could last through the rest of this month before bouncing back during the final week of October.

[financemadeeasy]

Find out what is Volatility Index or VIX

Learn all about Volatility Index

What is VIX? The VIX, or Volatility Index, is a real-time market index that reflects the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. The VIX is often referred to as the “fear gauge” or “fear index” because it tends to spike during periods of market uncertainty or stress. It was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and measures the implied volatility of S&P 500…

[dataanxiety]

Nice historical volatility chart

This is a helpful annotated chart of yearly S&P 500 volatility. I bookmarked it back in 2014, so it only covers the years from 1929 to 2014.

S&P 500 calendar year realized volatility from 1929-2014 $SPY $SPX $VIX

— via Ro_Patel on StockTwits, October 09, 2014

The y-axis is S&P Calendar Year Realized Volatility as a percentage. The x-axis is time in years. I hope it is possible to enlarge the image by clicking on it! The red bars represent the 10 years with highest volatility. The green bars represent the 10 years with the lowest volatility. I am guessing that the blue bars are all other years.

I wondered why the chart was tagged with $SPY $SPX and $VIX. Both StockTwits and Twitter used to denote stock symbols with a dollar sign instead of a hash tag.

The first two were easy. SPY is an ETF that is backed by actual shares of stock in the companies that are included in Standard & Poor's 500 index. SPX is driven by the price of the S&P 500 Index itself. SPX isn't tradeable per se, but there are SPX futures and various SPX options.

Volatility and the fear indicator

Volatility is the standard deviation of a stock, stock index, or other security's annualized returns over a time period; essentially, the rate at which the security or index price increases or decreases. ‘Actual’ (historical) volatility measures the variability of known prices.

What is $VIX

VIX is called the fear indicator because it is used to infer a quantitative metric of market risk, fear, and stress. It is defined as the 30-day expected volatility of the S&P 500 stock index, using Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) listed S&P 500 options data. VIX is a measure of implied volatility (forward-looking) not historical. Values over 30 are considered high, while 20 is more typical. There's no upper bound on VIX.

The VIX isn't tradeable, which is why I am amused that its CBOE landing page (URL above) has "tradeable" in the URL! Instead, there are VIX futures, call and put options for trading.

The VIX was introduced by CBOE in 1993. I think that's why this chart doesn't have VIX on the y-axis (only alluding to it with $VIX) as an historical time series. It wouldn't be possible to impute historical values, especially not to 1929 but not even prior to 1993, because VIX is calculated by aggregating weighted prices of a constantly changing portfolio of S&P 500 calls and puts over a range of strike prices.

StockTwits

StockTwits seems mostly moribund to me, since about 2015. The name is a little strange, but it is a great idea: A social network for investor/speculators. The realtime, Twitter-like functionality, and user interface, are well-designed and fun. I think StockTwits was founded by Howard Lindzon who is nice, and maybe Fred Wilson the AVC guy ("A Venture Capitalist"?). EDIT: I just checked. It is still active but not exactly a huge startup venture.

Now that Amazon.com has retired Alexa, I can't find website metrics as easily. I'm mildly curious about StockTwits. I wish I could average unique annual page views per year, and then do a 3-line time series graph of unique daily views during 2012 (when it was really active), 2015, and last year.

[10bmnews]

A market options bet that pays off if trade tensions cool a bit

Market uncertainty has massively increased as trade tariffs remain center stage for global investors. With the CBOE Volatility Index surging higher, I want to lean optimistically and use options to potentially profit on the trade tariff temperature coming down. Using a defined risk options spread SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) will allow an investor to profit in a snapback recovery after this…

[reddanceragain]

Heather Cox Richardson

April 7, 2025 Heather Cox Richardson Apr 8 Major indexes on the stock market began down more than 3% today when, as Allison Morrow of CNN reported, a rumor that Trump was considering delaying his tariffs by three months sent stocks surging upward by almost 8%. The rumor was unfounded—it appeared to begin from a small account on X—but it indicated how desperate traders are to see an end to President Donald J. Trump’s trade war.

As soon as the rumor was discredited, the market began to fall again, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement that he is opening trade negotiations with Japan and looking forward to talks with other countries appeared to reassure some traders that Trump's tariffs will not last. The wild swings made the day one of the most volatile in stock market history. It ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 349 points and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite staying relatively flat. Futures for tomorrow are up slightly.

Foreign markets fared badly today, suggesting that the reality of Trump’s tariffs is beginning to sink in. Sam Goldfarb of the Wall Street Journal notes that Hong Kong’s Hang Seng took its biggest dive since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, losing 13%, and that other markets also fell today.

Goldfarb reports that in the U.S., traders are deeply worried about losses but also anxious about missing a rebound if the administration changes its policies. Hence the extreme volatility of the market. Generally, values over 30 are considered indicators of increased risk and uncertainty in the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, the so-called fear gauge. Today, it spiked to 60.

Business leaders are speaking out publicly against Trump’s tariffs. Today, Ken Langone, the co-founder of Home Depot and a major Republican donor, told the Financial Times: “I don’t understand the goddamn formula.”

Senate Republicans are also starting to push back. Seven Republican senators have now signed onto a bill that would limit Trump’s ability to impose tariffs. The power to levy tariffs belongs to Congress, but Congress has permitted a president to adjust tariffs on an emergency basis. Trump declared an emergency, and it is on that ground that he has upended more than 90 years of global economic policy.

Trump has threatened to veto any such legislation, but he will not need to if Senate majority leader John Thune (R-SD) and House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) refuse to bring the measure to a vote. Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill of Politico report that while Republicans express concern about the tariffs in private, leaders will stand with the president because they must have the votes of MAGA lawmakers to pass any of their legislative agenda through Congress, and to get that they will need Trump’s support. Others are worried about incurring Trump’s wrath and, with it, a primary challenger.

“People are skittish. They’re all worried about it,” Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) told Carney and Hill. “But they are putting on a stiff upper lip to act as though nothing is happening and hoping it goes away.”

But so far, it does not look as if it’s going to go away. Today the European Commission has announced 25% countertariffs in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.

Trump’s response to the crisis has been to double down on his tariff plan. This morning he wrote on his social media network that he will impose additional 50% tariffs on China effective on Wednesday unless it drops the retaliatory tariffs it has placed on U.S. products. Rather than backing down, China said it would “fight to the end.”

Today, in a press conference convened in the Oval Office, Trump explained his thinking behind why he has begun a global tariff war. "You know, our country was the strongest, believe it or not, from 1870 to 1913. You know why? It was all tariff based. We had no income tax,” he said. “Then in 1913, some genius came up with the idea of let’s charge the people of our country, not foreign countries that are ripping off our country, and the country was never, relatively, was never that kind of wealth. We had so much wealth we didn’t know what to do with our money. We had meetings, we had committees, and these committees worked tirelessly to study one subject: we have so much money, what are going to do with it, who are we going to give it to? And I hope we’re going to be in that position again.”

Aside from this complete misreading of American history—Civil War income taxes lasted until 1875, for example, tariffs are paid by consumers, the Panics of 1873 and 1893 devastated the economy, few Americans at the time thought the Gilded Age was a golden age, and I have no clue what he’s referring to with the talk about committees—Trump’s larger motivation is clear: he wants to get rid of income taxes.

Congress passed the 1913 Revenue Act imposing income taxes to shift the cost of supporting the government from ordinary Americans, especially the women who by then made up a significant portion of household consumers, to men of wealth. Tariffs were regressive because they fell disproportionately on working-class Americans through their everyday purchases. Income taxes spread costs more evenly, according to a man’s ability to pay. The switch from tariffs to income taxes helped to break the power of the so-called robber barons, the powerful industrialists who controlled the U.S. economy and government in the late nineteenth century.

To get rid of income taxes, Trump and his Republicans have backed the decimation of the government services that support ordinary Americans.

Today, in the Oval Office press conference, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested where they intend to put government money, promising a defense budget of $1 trillion, a significant jump from the current $892 defense budget. “[W]e have to be strong because you’ve got a lot of bad forces out there now,” Trump said.

(NOTE: The DEFENSE BUDGET IS ALREADY OVERBLOATED!!)

Allison McCann, Alexandra Berzon, and Hamed Aleaziz of the New York Times reported today that the administration also intends to spend as much as $45 billion over the next two years on new detention facilities for immigrants. In the last fiscal year, the total amount of federal money allocated to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement was about $3.4 billion. The new facilities will be in private hands and will operate with lower standards and less oversight than current detention facilities.

(NOTE: AMERICAN GULAGS!!!!)

[minosbull]

April 7, 2025

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

APR 08, 2025

Major indexes on the stock market began down more than 3% today when, as Allison Morrow of CNN reported, a rumor that Trump was considering delaying his tariffs by three months sent stocks surging upward by almost 8%. The rumor was unfounded—it appeared to begin from a small account on X—but it indicated how desperate traders are to see an end to President Donald J. Trump’s trade war.

As soon as the rumor was discredited, the market began to fall again, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement that he is opening trade negotiations with Japan and looking forward to talks with other countries appeared to reassure some traders that Trump's tariffs will not last. The wild swings made the day one of the most volatile in stock market history. It ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 349 points and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite staying relatively flat. Futures for tomorrow are up slightly.

Foreign markets fared badly today, suggesting that the reality of Trump’s tariffs is beginning to sink in. Sam Goldfarb of the Wall Street Journal notes that Hong Kong’s Hang Seng took its biggest dive since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, losing 13%, and that other markets also fell today.

Goldfarb reports that in the U.S., traders are deeply worried about losses but also anxious about missing a rebound if the administration changes its policies. Hence the extreme volatility of the market. Generally, values over 30 are considered indicators of increased risk and uncertainty in the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, the so-called fear gauge. Today, it spiked to 60.

Business leaders are speaking out publicly against Trump’s tariffs. Today, Ken Langone, the co-founder of Home Depot and a major Republican donor, told the Financial Times: “I don’t understand the goddamn formula.”

Senate Republicans are also starting to push back. Seven Republican senators have now signed onto a bill that would limit Trump’s ability to impose tariffs. The power to levy tariffs belongs to Congress, but Congress has permitted a president to adjust tariffs on an emergency basis. Trump declared an emergency, and it is on that ground that he has upended more than 90 years of global economic policy.

Trump has threatened to veto any such legislation, but he will not need to if Senate majority leader John Thune (R-SD) and House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) refuse to bring the measure to a vote. Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill of Politico report that while Republicans express concern about the tariffs in private, leaders will stand with the president because they must have the votes of MAGA lawmakers to pass any of their legislative agenda through Congress, and to get that they will need Trump’s support. Others are worried about incurring Trump’s wrath and, with it, a primary challenger.

“People are skittish. They’re all worried about it,” Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) told Carney and Hill. “But they are putting on a stiff upper lip to act as though nothing is happening and hoping it goes away.”

But so far, it does not look as if it’s going to go away. Today the European Commission has announced 25% countertariffs in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.

Trump’s response to the crisis has been to double down on his tariff plan. This morning he wrote on his social media network that he will impose additional 50% tariffs on China effective on Wednesday unless it drops the retaliatory tariffs it has placed on U.S. products. Rather than backing down, China said it would “fight to the end.”

Today, in a press conference convened in the Oval Office, Trump explained his thinking behind why he has begun a global tariff war. "You know, our country was the strongest, believe it or not, from 1870 to 1913. You know why? It was all tariff based. We had no income tax,” he said. “Then in 1913, some genius came up with the idea of let’s charge the people of our country, not foreign countries that are ripping off our country, and the country was never, relatively, was never that kind of wealth. We had so much wealth we didn’t know what to do with our money. We had meetings, we had committees, and these committees worked tirelessly to study one subject: we have so much money, what are going to do with it, who are we going to give it to? And I hope we’re going to be in that position again.”

Aside from this complete misreading of American history—Civil War income taxes lasted until 1875, for example, tariffs are paid by consumers, the Panics of 1873 and 1893 devastated the economy, few Americans at the time thought the Gilded Age was a golden age, and I have no clue what he’s referring to with the talk about committees—Trump’s larger motivation is clear: he wants to get rid of income taxes.

Congress passed the 1913 Revenue Act imposing income taxes to shift the cost of supporting the government from ordinary Americans, especially the women who by then made up a significant portion of household consumers, to men of wealth. Tariffs were regressive because they fell disproportionately on working-class Americans through their everyday purchases. Income taxes spread costs more evenly, according to a man’s ability to pay. The switch from tariffs to income taxes helped to break the power of the so-called robber barons, the powerful industrialists who controlled the U.S. economy and government in the late nineteenth century.

To get rid of income taxes, Trump and his Republicans have backed the decimation of the government services that support ordinary Americans.

Today, in the Oval Office press conference, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested where they intend to put government money, promising a defense budget of $1 trillion, a significant jump from the current $892 defense budget. “[W]e have to be strong because you’ve got a lot of bad forces out there now,” Trump said.

Allison McCann, Alexandra Berzon, and Hamed Aleaziz of the New York Times reported today that the administration also intends to spend as much as $45 billion over the next two years on new detention facilities for immigrants. In the last fiscal year, the total amount of federal money allocated to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement was about $3.4 billion. The new facilities will be in private hands and will operate with lower standards and less oversight than current detention facilities.

—

Notes:

Donald J. Trump, Truth Social post, April 7, 2025, 11:14 am.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrvngj03jlo

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-04-07-2025-2062512c?mod=WSJ_home_supertoppermiddle_pos_3

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.VIX/

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/trump-tariffs-live-updates-stock-market-crypto.html

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/senate-tariff-bill-must-become-the-focus

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/07/trump-veto-tariff-bill-grassley

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/04/mike-johnson-john-thune-trump-tariffs-republicans-00273959

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-congress-republicans-powerless-00271537

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/07/business/wall-street-trump-tariff-nightcap/index.html

https://apnews.com/article/china-us-tariffs-trade-trump-b5010acb08114304d8c36267b47eda13

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/07/media/fake-news-x-post-caused-market-whiplash/index.html

https://meidasnews.com/news/european-union-slaps-25-tariffs-on-united-states-in-retaliation

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/07/hegseth-trump-1-trillion-defense-budget-00007147

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/us/politics/trump-administration-immigrant-detention-facilities-services.html

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/28/politics/alien-enemies-act-supreme-court/index.html

https://www.mediamatters.org/tariffs-trade/fox-vs-fox-trump-apologists-defend-tariff-chaos-while-experts-raise-alarm

YouTube:

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Bluesky:

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[starseedfxofficial]

The CPI Trapdoor: Why Most NZDCAD Traders Miss the Exit (And How to Slip Through It Like a Pro Ninja) Where Most Traders Faceplant (And How You Can Moonwalk Past Them) There’s something oddly poetic about trading the NZDCAD. It’s like trying to time your toast perfectly without burning it while your cat casually walks across the keyboard. But when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) enters the chat? Oh boy, it's like trying to toast bread while juggling knives—blindfolded. And yet, in the chaos, lies the opportunity. Because while most traders panic when CPI numbers drop or spike, the real pros (a.k.a. you, soon) know that CPI isn’t just a number—it’s a cheat code for NZDCAD momentum. It’s like insider knowledge in plain sight. But only if you know how to read between the economic lines. Let’s dig into the real game-changing strategies, and reveal the little-known, CPI-fueled secrets that separate profitable NZDCAD traders from those still blaming their broker for slippage. CPI Isn’t Just Inflation. It’s the Market’s Mood Ring. Imagine CPI as the market’s emotional compass. When Canada or New Zealand releases CPI data, it doesn’t just whisper “inflation.” It screams: "Hey, here’s how hawkish or dovish our central bank might get!" Traders often focus on headline inflation. But dig deeper. Core CPI (which strips out food and energy) gives more predictive power. Why? Because central banks hate surprises. Consistent surprises in core CPI are what turn gentle rate hikes into jaw-dropping pivots. Quick Ninja Trick: - Compare actual vs forecast on both Canadian and New Zealand CPI. - Use a simple traffic light model: - Green Light: Both countries report stable CPI = rangebound NZDCAD - Red Light: Diverging surprises = big breakout potential - Yellow Light: Mixed surprises = fakeouts likely. Set tighter stops. The Forgotten CPI Strategy That Outsmarts the Pros Here’s a trick most traders never use (even hedge funds overlook this during calendar chaos): The Lagging Country Differential Method. Let’s say New Zealand posts a hot CPI surprise while Canada remains unchanged. Most traders instantly long NZDCAD. But here’s the catch: NZD might have already priced in the rate hike speculation within the first 15 minutes. Instead, look for the lagging country effect. If Canada’s CPI is scheduled after New Zealand's, monitor the Canadian bond market. A hawkish tilt there? Time to fade that NZDCAD spike. Why? Because the market overreacted to NZD before seeing CAD's move. Execution Tip: - Use the hourly chart. - Wait for the first impulsive move post-NZ CPI. - Watch for reversal setups near recent structure highs/lows once CAD CPI kicks in. It’s like letting others run into the fire while you suit up in fireproof armor and casually walk in afterward. Hidden CPI Clues in the Kiwi and Loonie Crosses NZDCAD is the main dish, but the appetizers reveal the flavor. Want to front-run the crowd? Study NZDJPY and CADJPY around CPI time. - If NZDJPY spikes but NZDCAD lags, you’ve likely got CAD strength brewing. - If CADJPY dives during weak CAD CPI, NZDCAD could skyrocket before the masses jump in. This cross-pair confirmation method is criminally underused. Most traders act like NZDCAD exists in a vacuum. But you? You’ll be the one pulling the strings backstage. Underground Trend: The CPI-VIX Correlation Nobody Talks About Here’s where we blow past conventional wisdom. VIX (Volatility Index) + CPI = Breakout Alert. When CPI drops and the VIX rises, that’s not fear—it’s opportunity knocking. According to a 2023 study by CBOE, volatility around CPI events has increased by 19% YoY—especially in commodity-correlated pairs like NZDCAD. Combine that with the fact that CPI often precedes central bank forward guidance, and boom—you’ve got a recipe for explosive movement. Actionable Step-by-Step: - Watch VIX 30 minutes before CPI (ideal level > 16 = market tension). - Set breakout zones on NZDCAD 15 minutes before the release. - Use OCO (One Cancels Other) orders to trade breakouts without chasing candles. Bonus tip: Backtest this during high-vol CPI weeks (first week of the month) for shocking results. Data-Driven Setup: NZDCAD Post-CPI ATR Expansion According to StarseedFX data, the Average True Range (ATR) on NZDCAD spikes an average of 42% within 3 hours of major CPI releases from either Canada or New Zealand. How to ride the wave without drowning in it: - Use the ATR(14) on the 30-min chart. - Measure pre-CPI average volatility. - If ATR post-release jumps above 1.4x the 7-day average, expect trend continuation. Why it matters: Most traders enter too early, set stops too tight, and get stopped out right before the trend matures. But you? You’ll be surfing that volatility like it owes you money. Pro Insight: What the Experts Say Dr. Lisa Abend, former FX Strategist at Westpac: "Most retail traders misinterpret CPI as just an inflation report. It’s actually a psychological benchmark for central banks. In pairs like NZDCAD, CPI surprises trigger a cascade of speculative positioning shifts that extend well beyond the initial reaction." Bryan Winters, macroeconomic analyst at Capital Economics: "If you want an edge in commodity-linked pairs, track how CPI affects rate expectations. NZDCAD isn’t just driven by oil and dairy prices—it’s about timing the reaction to central bank narratives." Wrap-Up: The Ultimate NZDCAD + CPI Master Checklist Here’s your go-to cheat sheet to trade like a CPI ninja: - ✅ Monitor both NZ and Canadian CPI surprises - ✅ Use core CPI for better rate expectation signals - ✅ Exploit lagging country CPI reactions - ✅ Confirm moves with NZDJPY/CADJPY - ✅ Watch VIX levels to time volatility surges - ✅ Trade breakout setups using OCO orders - ✅ Confirm trend continuation with ATR expansion - ✅ Don’t just trade CPI—decode the central bank narrative it creates And hey—if this feels like unlocking a secret level in a Forex video game, it kind of is. Most traders mash buttons. You? You’re entering cheat codes. Looking for more high-level ninja tactics and exclusive insights? - ✨ Get real-time CPI breakdowns and rate expectations at StarseedFX Economic News Hub - 🤝 Master elite methods and obscure strategies with Free Forex Courses - 🚀 Get your free Trading Journal to track those winning setups. - 🕵️ Join the StarseedFX Community to discuss CPI spikes, swap memes, and sharpen your strategy. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated Read the full article

[textdata]

Check out today's news at https://news-kohl-tau.vercel.app/! Just updated! Here is a snippet of what to expect: situation has led to increased recession fears, significant market swings, and warnings from prominent financial figures. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), a key measure of market fear, reached levels not seen since the COVID pandemic, highlighting the extreme uncertainty gripping investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 349 points after fluctuating dramatically throughout the day. Intraday, it had swung from a loss of 1700 points to a gain of nearly 900, underscoring the market's

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Cboe, Salesforce, Edwards Lifesciences, Honeywell and Intercontinental Exchange

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Cboe Global Markets, Ticker: $CBOE

Cboe Global Markets, $CBOE, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI rising at the midline with the MACD crossed up. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Salesforce, Ticker: $CRM

Salesforce, $CRM, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI rising with the MACD crossed up. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Edwards Lifesciences, Ticker: $EW

Edwards Lifesciences, $EW, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Honeywell, Ticker: $HON

Honeywell, $HON, comes into the week after breaking yearlong resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for continuation to participate…..

Intercontinental Exchange, Ticker: $ICE

Intercontinental Exchange, $ICE, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Start of Summer Annual Sale! Hi all the Start of Summer Annual Sale is entering its last week at Dragonfly Capital. Get an annual subscription for 38.2% off or pay quarterly for 15% off. Both auto-renew at that discounted rate until you decide to leave.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the June quadruple witching in the books in the books, saw equity markets a bit gassed after a good start.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation in the uptrend while Crude Oil moves higher in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues the short term move to the upside while US Treasuries continue their short term move higher in the secular downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term trend lower while Emerging Markets look to be on the verge of breaking consolidation to the upside.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ look strong, especially on the longer timeframe, but with possible reversal or digestion candles this week. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY could us a reset on momentum measures as both are extended and pullbacks are helping there. The IWM continued to go nowhere moving mainly sideways in the upper part of the 2½ year consolidation. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.