#Octoberphobia

[jeffhirsch]

Election-Year Octoberphobia Hangs Over Market

From one October day to the next, the market seems unable to decide which direction to go. Election-year Octobers going back to 1950 have been the worst month of the year, but in the last 21-years October has been fair ranking #4 for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, #5 for Russell 1000 and # 6 for Russell 2000. And then there is October’s history of major market drops occurring during the month, hence Octoberphobia.

At today’s solid close, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 are all still in the red for October and appear to be tracking the typical election-year seasonal pattern. Russell 2000 is struggling the most, down 1.57% as of today. NASDAQ is least negative, down a small 0.03%. S&P 500 and DJIA are respectively off 0.20% and 0.59%. Should the market continue to track past election years, more sideways chop is likely heading into mid-month. A more decisive move lower in the second half of the month, ahead of Election Day, cannot be ruled out.

Geopolitical tensions are at or near the top of the list of market concerns as Israel’s response to Iran’s latest missile attack is still awaited. Last Friday’s much better than expected jobs report has sent the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4% rather effectively quashing expectations of another large Fed interest rate cut. Inflation readings later this week, CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday, remain important, but barring a wild miss could fail to move the market considering how solid employment data has been.

[ishionomanga]

Day 7 of Inktober!

Prompts: Plants / Pseudodysphagia

[shisoku]

Day 3 of #Inktober ! Prompts were Trypophobia /Bites /Haunted ~ I like dogs so it was fun~ • • #Inktober2019 #Inktoberday3 #octoberphobia #goretober #occultober #OC https://www.instagram.com/p/B3LWF65prhu/?igshid=ty3nn1j3l2ei

[alphst]

Strong earnings help Wall Street tide over Octoberphobia declines

Strong earnings help Wall Street tide over Octoberphobia declines

October is one month that terrifies investors, thanks to its notorious past. Historically, this month has been the most volatile and has triggered the biggest sell-offs on multiple occasions including 1929 crash as well as the infamous 2008 financial crisis.

This October, it was no different in terms of volatility and stock sell-offs. So far, there have already been three trading days when the…

[viralnewsreports]

via Viral News Reports

[justnewsviral]

via Just News Viral

[gonewsviral]

via Go News Viral

[newsforetoday]

via News fore today

[updatenewszone]

via Update News Zone

[jeffhirsch]

Market Not Out of October Woods Yet

Aside from weakness earlier in the month, this October has been rather sanguine. S&P 500 and DJIA have recorded new all-time highs and extended a weekly advancing streak to six in a row. But throughout the month the CBOE VIX index has remained stubbornly elevated around 20 and the 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen back above 4.10% while gold is also trading at new all-time highs.

Although the market did close mixed today, DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and 2000 were down while NASDAQ recorded a modest advance, today’s trading seems like a reminder that it is still October, and more volatility is not out of the question. At least until after the dust has settled on the presidential election.

Looking at October’s Election Year seasonal patterns compared to 2024 above, this October’s mid-month strength stands out as being well above average while today’s weakness aligns with the beginning of a typical, seasonal pullback in the second half of the month. Market weakness could last through the rest of this month before bouncing back during the final week of October.

[jeffhirsch]

October’s First Trading Day Prone to Volatility, But S&P 500 Up 8 of Last 11

Based upon data in the soon to be available 2024 Stock Trader’s Almanac on page 90, the big gain on 10/3/2022 pushed the first trading day of October into 4th place for DJIA of all monthly first trading days since September 1997 based upon total DJIA points gained.

S&P 500 has been up 15 of the last 26 years and 8 of the last 11 on the first trading day of October. DJIA’s record is slightly softer with 12 declines and NASDAQ’s performance has been the worst of the group, down 13 times with an average loss of 0.15%. Impressive gains occurred in 2002, 2003 and 2022 while sizable declines happened in 1998, 2000 (NASDAQ), 2009, 2011. 2014 and 2019 also stand out for across-the-board losses exceeding 1%.

[jeffhirsch]

Octoberphobia Intensifies in Election Years

Election year Octobers rank dead last for DJIA, S&P (since 1950) and NASDAQ (Since 1971). Uncertainty ahead of Election Day can intensify Octoberphobia into a self-fulfilling prophecy, which can produce heightened volatility and market setbacks October is infamous for.

Over the last twenty-one years (2003-2023), the full month of October has been a fairly solid month for the market, ranking #4 for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, #5 for Russell 1000 and # 6 for Russell 2000. All have logged average gains ranging from 0.8% by Russell 2000 to 1.5% by NASDAQ. But these gains have been accompanied by volatile trading, most notably during the early days of the month.

October has historically opened softly with modest average gains on its first trading day. On the second day, all but Russell 2000 have been weak followed by a rebound on the third trading day before additional weakness pulled the market lower through the seventh or eighth trading day. At which point, the market has historically found support and begun to rally through mid-month and beyond.

In election years since 1950, October has been weak from the start with some strength around mid-month followed by a second wave of weakness before rallying to the finish with a loss. Steep declines in October 2008 do influence the pattern, but weakness persists even when 2008 is excluded.

[jeffhirsch]

October is Worst Month in Election Years

“Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout. October can evoke fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point DJIA drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point DJIA drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, DJIA lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline, in percentage terms, in our database going back to 1901. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the largest and third largest DJIA weekly point declines.

However, October has been a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will, turning the tide in thirteen post-WWII bear markets: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%), and 2022. Only 1960 was an election year. While not in an official bear market this year, the market has recently endured bouts of seasonal weakness this year in early August and at the beginning of September. Despite the current Fed-rate-cut fueled rally, another round of weakness ahead of Election Day cannot be ruled out entirely.

Election-year Octobers rank dead last for DJIA, S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972) and Russell 1000. For Russell 2000 (since 1980) election year Octobers rank #11, March is worst. Eliminating gruesome 2008 from the calculation provides a little relief, as rankings improve at most two steps (DJIA). Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it may be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.

[jeffhirsch]

October Volatility After Big Gain First Three Quarters

Catalyzed by port strikes, escalating hostilities in the Mideast and uncertainty ahead of the election Octoberphobia strikes again. Cue “Spooky” by the Atlanta Rhythm Section. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that these types of events also have history of transpiring in October. With the attention focused on Israel and Iran we are concerned the world may be exposed to some new mayhem from Putin, China or other bad actors.

The history of years with gains of this magnitude at this juncture in the year with solid Q3 and September upside performance for the most part have been followed by more bullish market behavior and a continuation of the rally. But as you can see in the table of S&P 500 Performance Following Big Q3 Year-to-Date Gains the bulk of any damage occurred in October.

Of the top 30 S&P 500 9-month gains since 1930 all 30 years ended higher with average gains of 25.9%. Q4s were up 24, down 6, average gain 4.6%. Octobers were up 15, down 15 with an average gain of 0.01%. Of the most recent 12 occurrences October is down 7, up 5 with an average loss of -1.1%, which includes the Crash of 1987 and a -21.8% loss for October 1987.

[jeffhirsch]

Glorious day in the woods. Almost like a fall day. But maybe the market is not out of the woods yet. Sold my SPYs yesterday at the close at 560 – 30% gain. Watch out for end of August weakness, September worst month of the year and then there’s Octoberphobia. Have a good day.

[jeffhirsch]

Course Correction August Delivers Election Year Rally

As we anticipated, the second half of July pullback yielded a rather textbook election year August rally. It has been quite a course correction from the August 5 lows. The market has been known to succumb to selling toward the end of August as The Street heads for the Hamptons and other getaways for the unofficial end of summer.

September seasonal weakness and Octoberphobia looms large. But we have been hearing a lot of chatter about the seasonal troubles this time of year, so our contrary antennae are purring that perhaps there is just a bit too much negativity. Expect some chop and sideways action over the next 60 days or so with a likely test of the lows. But another steep August-October correction three years in a row is less likely.