#Any other scenario falls into the initial 70%

[clairi-yos]

How I hope Colin Bridgerton's screen time will be divided in S4:

70% wandering about aimlessly with a baby on his hip, cracking bad jokes, snacking, talking about 'my wife' to anyone who'll listen and contributing absolutely nothing to the plot.

20% Polin moments (fluff or intimacy scenes I'm not fussy)

7% helping the S4 lead

3% ABC brother scenes

[radiomurdeer]

Wishlist

Random ideas I'd like to see. These are by no means comprehensive or in any particular order and I'm down with lots of plotting/changes to initial idea, these are just some things off the top of my head to help facilitate plotting. You can view the wishlist tag itself by clicking here. This got long woops so I'll put it all under a cut.

With Anyone/General Scenarios

Hotel Dad Alastor - maybe he shouldn't have told Charlie he viewed her as his spawn. I feel like such a bold claim should have consequences.

Alastor is injured after the fight and is dealing with it. The other muse does not believe that he's fine (maybe he is, maybe he isn't) and wants to help.

Alastor is injured after the fight and is taken advantage of (dark thread)

corruption thread! slower burn, Alastor just being a general creeper and influencing those around him in a negative way. Or someone corrupting him but I feel like that might be harder to plot for.

muse as one of Alastor's contractees and has to deal with having a weird creepy boss

found family stuff I'm a sucker for it

Alastor joining the Vees. How willing he is can be variable. Maybe he joined when Vox asked? Maybe he lost the fight with Vox and one of the Vees ended up holding his leash 7 years ago. Maybe he finally relented after coming back from his sabbatical. Bonus points for anyone trying to convince him to change his name to Valastor or something equally dumb with a V to match the rest of them (he refuses, tyvm)

redeemed!Alastor - Great Alastor, altruist, did die for his friends. He's not happy about this. No one is happy about this. Falling from Heaven any% speedrun go! Or maybe Heaven figures out a way to use him against Hell?

human!AU with Alastor as serial killer dating a horror/crime writer like this post

IDK I just like political intrigue

With Charlie

AU where Alastor is, in fact, dating Charlie like he insinuated at the beginning of Episode 5 before switching tactics to be a father figure. This is probably not a healthy ship but it could be

Hotel Dad Alastor - you made the claim my guy, time to stick with it

IDK make him sit in therapy or something. He's not a resident, he's staff, but he should set a good example right? Or maybe she wants to try out some psychology stuff she's read about and get his opinion before testing it on the resident(s)

them working together on some project for the hotel or something else

field trips to Cannibal Town or elsewhere - for someone raised in Hell, she doesn't really seem to know much about her people

With Husk

role reversal, Husk owns Alastor's soul

Overlord Husk - stuff in the past leading up to the game where Husk lost his soul

aftermath and time following Alastor getting Husk's soul

With Lucifer

Lucifer and Alastor having to deal with each other, I just want banter and maybe reluctant co-parenting/co-hosting at the hotel.

Something based on the Mutual Satisfaction comic by @/Fernrynn on Twitter, first page is here but the rest is easy enough to find (tw: gore, canniballism), - Lucifer makes a deal with Alastor to provide his meals. Probably more of a horror thread tbh?

I like RadioApple of all flavors. Lucifer and Alastor dealing with starting to like someone they can't stand and having to deal with feelings is a fun dynamic.

With Vox

Them meeting and working together, Alastor taking a newly spawned Vox under his wing.

AU where they continue working together and the 'Vees' didn't happen (idk I love the idea of 'the Media Demons/Broadcast Husbands' getting a rep and showing up at the hotel in the pilot instead of just Alastor)

the point leading up to and including where Alastor and Vox split. I high key headcanon this happened in the 70s/80s when Valentino showed up. An ultimatum was given, and Vox chose Val. Super negotiable on the reason for the split though.

AU where Alastor loses the fight 7 years ago and ends up working for Vox. Or the other way around? Either is good.

Vox and Alastor team up for some reason during/after the series, possibly reconciling, possibly not

RadioStatic of all flavors, unrequited/unspoken/QPR/exes/anything. I fucking love RadioStatic

corrupt priest or corrupt nun AU? AU where one is getting tempted by a devil? both tempting an NPC? Idk Vox's priest getup in ep 2 and Alastor's nun outfit in ep 5 had me thinking

[luna-rainbow]

meta: amputation

I'm going to do a short series of meta on Bucky's arm for anyone who wants to use it as reference.

Warning: graphic description of injury ahead. My tolerance of gruesome is a bit off-kilter so sometimes I can't tell if it's going to squick people out or not.

I've talked about this topic before, but I'll expand on it a little bit.

The super soldier serum improves healing, and the prime example is Steve gets shot through the back at the end of CATWS. We see blood at the front, meaning it's definitely caused (at least) internal haemorrhage, if not also bowel perforation and organ (liver, kidney, spleen, take your pick) injury. He then falls into the river, where it's undoubtedly infested with a whole ecosystem of nasty bacteria and parasites, but comes out the other end his usual sprightly self.

This potentially fatal injury, along with potentially disabling injuries of getting stabbed in the arm and shot in the leg, all healed without any permanent damage.

So how does this relate to Bucky's amputation? Well, it means either the injury to his arm was too catastrophic or he was not given the chance to recover.

As you can see here, when he's captured by Hydra, he's already missing the arm, i.e. the arm was amputated in the field.

Why is this important? It rules out things like frostbite or hypoperfusion (reduced blood supply) injury, where the limb becomes unsalvageable but you've got time to move them to a safe place before doing surgery.

This means even for Bucky's captors, his amputation was either unintentional or emergency. So let's think about some scenarios.

1) Bucky’s arm was amputated during the initial fall.

I think this might be the assumption for most people but a fall is actually an unusual (but not impossible!) mechanism for an "at the scene" amputation. If you look at the picture of when Hydra first operates on him, he still has a stump of his arm - that means it's actually torn through the bone and not through the shoulder joint where it's technically weaker.

Fall injuries tend to be impact injuries, so you get fractures/damage where body hits the ground. To result in an amputation through bone, it needs a shearing force and not just direct impact. The main ways I can think of for this to happen is:

a) A very nasty mangled open fracture (bone exposed) of the arm e.g. he had landed on very uneven ground (e.g. a rocky outcrop) and took the brunt of the fall on his upper arm (also a fairly unusual first point of contact with ground), with significant soft tissue damage e.g. rolling down the rough terrain. In this case, it is very likely for him to have other severe injuries including chest, pelvis, other limbs or head injury.

b) A blast injury e.g. he landed with/close to a weapon that then misfired.

c) A shear injury where his arm got caught between two heavy objects and sawn off, e.g. under a moving vehicle or in machinery.

Just keep in mind people exsanguinate rapidly so he would need to be found by Hydra very quickly after the fall/amputation.

2) Bucky’s arm gets amputated following the fall by Hydra in the field.

This can be necessary first aid when the limb is threatened and the need to get the person to safety outweighs the harm of losing a limb.

Possible scenarios for this include: a) similar to above, catastrophic fractures and soft tissue injury (*graphic warning* such as complete degloving injuries i.e. skin and muscles shredded off). Immediate amputation isn't usually required though, so there would need to be other factors e.g. he's too resistive/in too much pain, Hydra didn't want to leave a blood trail (although you can tourniquet the arm), arm was almost detached anyway etc b) entrapment/crush injuries. His arm gets trapped under something heavy like fallen rocks or machinery. There are two possible ways for this scenario to go: (i) They determine it is too hard to lift the obstacle off and opt to amputate his arm to free him. Entrapment doesn’t necessarily make someone unconscious or delirious, so I’ll let your imagination do with that information what it will. (ii) They free him, but he deteriorates due to the development of crush syndrome. They decide to amputate because it would take too long to get back to base (I'm not saying this is the correct medical decision...)

3. Bucky loses his arm resisting capture by Hydra.

He might have survived the fall with relatively minor injuries, but ran into Hydra when he’s trying to find his way through the snow. I imagine if he was conscious enough to resist, he would have put up a good fight. At some point, Hydra had to gravely injure him in order to subdue him. If this is the case then it makes Tony blasting his arm off in CACW (at the same level) all that much more unpleasant.

One of Bucky's very first flashbacks in CATWS was Zola standing in a forest, saying, "Sergeant Barnes." I forced myself to go back and rewatch the events surrounding Bucky's fall. Zola could see Bucky and Steve on the train, so he would have recognised Bucky. This scene in the forest suggests Zola was part of the search party because Bucky's later flashbacks of Zola was of him in a lab. It would make sense for Zola to try and look for his precious test subject soon after seeing Bucky fall off.

The horrifying implication is that Zola already had Bucky imprisoned when he himself got captured by Allied forces. At the same time that Peggy is telling Steve to "respect the dignity" of Bucky's choice, Colonel Phillips is recruiting Zola. These two become the co-founders of SHIELD, enabling Zola to continue imprisoning and experimenting on his unwilling subject.

This is also the scene where Steve tells Peggy he is not going to rest until all of Hydra is dead or captured...

And you're saying Steve went back to that and just twiddled his thumbs for 70 years while Peggy bred the largest nest of Hydra under their nose...

[legobiwan]

From one low-key Bucky Barnes stan to another...got any good fic recs? 👀🥺

Bucky!!!!!!!

So.

I think most anyone can find the fandom classics featuring Bucky without too much issue, so I won't waste time listing those. (This You Protect, Ain't No Grave, Barnes vs. the United States, etc.) The thing about Bucky fics (beyond the sheer volume of them) is that they can have a tendency to fall into some serious tropes, especially the post-TWS recovery fics (please, stop infantilizing an internationally renown assassin, among other things). For lack of better ideas, here's a fic that's gen, not quite as popular on ao3, and very, very good:

Reconstruction by Jocelyn

I love a good Winter Soldier trial fic and this one does an incredible job of creating a believable scenario where both Bucky's torture and crimes are realistic given the set-up in the movies/comics. (Let's face it, he had to have killed far more than two dozen people over those 70 years and had to endure gods-knows-what along the way.) This fic also does an amazing job of world-building Wakanda and its characters (more comics-based than MCU-based) so they have agency and are not props for Steve and Bucky's mega-white boy angst. Along with this, this story features a very complicated Tony and deals quite well with the post-Civil War fallout without throwing anyone under the bus. And Wanda gets some fantastic moments. The end, which slides into Infinity War, goes a little off-the-rails, as the story suddenly jumps into something a lot more Loki-centric, but the initial 80-90% of the fic is A+.

Stucky

Confession time: Okay, so I will admit that Stucky fics are a bit of a guilty pleasure of mine, even though a lot of them are super-tropey and can run the risk of Flanderizing one of or both main characters (or Sam and Natasha, who also get dragged into this type of character assassination). Blame it on my month-long insomnia stint in July, I'll read just about anything at 3am. I had a small list of fics that I was going to publish, but I'm not going to get into it right now. Suffice it to say I enjoy the following themes (gen or slash) if done well:

Bucky thinks Steve is his handler

Bucky revenge tour

Competent badass Backy who still stabs the shit out of people

Steve revenge tour

And yes, Steve and Bucky on Vormir. Because pain.

FATWS

The world needs more gen/gen-ish FATWS stories. Here's one I really enjoyed:

The Old Words by kvikindi

Ignore the slash pairing on this one, there's nothing explicit in it. Fantastic exploration of the twisted relationship between Zemo and Bucky and a lot of Sokovian world-building.

FICS I WANT TO READ/TO EXIST

A post-Endgame (gen) fic exploring what Bucky does in canon, as in, how does he get that conditional pardon and what the hell is he doing between Endgame and FATWS, and how does he deal with Steve's decision to stay behind? (And is he really just...alone the entire time? That's sad. Oh, Bucky.)

As mentioned above, more gen FATWS fics. Specifically dealing with the fallout from Madripoor and the possible repercussions of, you know, Bucky's whole bar fight being recorded on a zillion cell phones and thus violating the terms of his pardon. Because I want to believe there's a reason for that. I want Thunderbolts and Bucky being blackmailed onto that team (the comics run is fantastic). Basically, give us more comic!Bucky characterization, as I love how he is constantly improving yet struggling with that moral line in the sand and the specters of his past.

But seriously, I would love a more fleshed-out FATWS-verse. More Sam! More Bucky! More Zemo! More Walker! More Lamar! Just...keep it gen.

Reverse Infinity War-snap with Bucky and Loki working together (gen, please). I'm sure there are some out there and I just haven't found them. They are two characters who I think would have a fascinating dynamic.

More Zemo and Bucky fics (non-slash or at least very subtle slash). They have such a bizarre and twisted relationship and I LOVE it.

Alpine's backstory. I love Alpine.

[aliensunflower-fics]

A Sinister Sneaky Lila Prompt

(( So I was just thinking about the first meeting between Lila and Marinette and how our favorite spotted hero only learned about Lila being a bad person because her crush on Adrien made her freak out and immediately get suspicious of Lila and while Lila did end up being a bad person the fact that Marinette only figured it out because she had a jealous freak out always sat poorly with me so I thought up a different scenario one where Lila is more conniving and patient.))

What if Lila was a little more calm the first time we met her? What if instead of immediately showing up and spilling lies she initially goes with a much more subtle approach? Sure she still lie’s but she starts off with small things instead. But the biggest difference? She doesn't go after Adrien right away therefore Marinette’s first reaction isn't to freak out about another girl talking to Adrien but instead to greet the new girl and let her know she's the class president and maybe even warn her about Chloe the resident class bully?

Now I don’t think that even a subtle Lila would be ‘subtle’ so I imagine even on her first day her interest in Adrien is plain to see. But maybe instead of freaking out or trying to immediately claim the blonde she plays up the fact that she's a ‘fan’ of his and isn't he so gorgeous and friendly? And yeah of course Marinette doesn’t want competition but he's a freaking celebrity she can't really expect or demand other girls NOT to see how gorgeous and perfect he is! And maybe with Alya to encourage her bestie it turns into Marinette and Lila gushing together about how kind he is and his various photoshoots and from there Lila slips in a lie about having some modeling experience from her younger years? Because Lila doesn’t want enemy’s she wants ‘friends’ she wants Adrien and based on what she was able to glean from his social media accounts and her first meeting with the model he’s an absolute idiot who admires ladybug the heroin and is all about ‘friendship’ and ‘forgiveness’ so Lila needs to make herself look like the biggest sweetest everyday hero. 

A few days into Lila being at school she learns that while lots of girls in school like Adrien the only real competition is Marinette. A review of the baker girls social media shows she has quite a few connections of her own so Lila doesn’t want to risk cutting the girl off when she’s a potential source for fame. More so with how much attention Adrien gives the pigtailed brat Lila definitely does not want to risk being caught threatening or bullying the girl in any way. So Lila decides to try a different approach. Using her talent for lies Lila infiltrates the girl group at school, she gets on with Alya by encouraging ALL her theories and validating even her crazier ideas to try and unmask Ladybug, she gets on with Mylene by talking about how she was THE  actress at her old school and would love to give Mylene advice on her acting! Alix? Its all about how she’s not THAT much of a girly girl last summer she was at a survival camp! Rose is easy as pie and just as much of a bubblegum airhead and Juleka… Well Lila see’s no point in befriending her anyway! She’s just the weird quiet girl. 

Now with her way into the group guaranteed Lila can ‘help’ with operation Adrienette she pretends to think the pair are cute and she “respects” how Marinette is drawn to Adrien for his “kindness” the sheer amount of will it takes for Lila not to roll her eyes is staggering really. But its all worth it to learn about the plans to try and help Marinette confess to Adrien and Lila makes sure to ruin each and every single one. Well she TRIES… Admittedly her success rate is more like 70% the ones she ruins range from Marinette just tripping up literally to  the ‘pasta’ incident where Marinette wound up covered head to toe in delicious noodles and sauce. The ones she fails to ruin result in her grinding her teeth as Adrien and Marinette spend time together. But of course Lila isn’t just content to ruin as many ‘Adrienette’ moments as she can. No the real goal is to have Marinette give up on Adrien completely hopefully to the point of avoiding him then Lila can swoop in for the steal. In order to achieve this Lila makes sure to ‘comfort’ Marinette after every failed attempt when really shes just finding ways to tell Marinette how she failed and “oh you must have been sooo embarrassed when that pasta fell on you right in front of Adrien I have no idea HOW you’ll ever face him” the rest of the time? She’s reminding Marinette about the pressure on her how Adrien has to date someone who can match him in style, how whoever he dates will be under scrutiny from the media, how Gabriel might have certain expectations from whoever Adrien dates! Their just tiny comments, tiny nitpicks, tiny little doubts she sows into Marinette ruining her already fragile self esteem while no one's the wiser. 

Only what if someone does notice? Juleka who Lila never bothered to befriend thinking she was just another quiet weirdo notices the drop in Marinette’s esteem, how could she not? After all Marinette was always pulling her out of HER shell and now no one but her is noticing that Marinette is crawling into one of her own. And Juleka notices that its Lila’s doing, because Juleka is sneaky she see’s Lila cornering Marinette she hears the subtle jabs against the girls self esteem all disguised as ‘friendly concern’ she notes the way Marinette pulls away from Adrien with time how she discourages the girls from planning anything new after SO many attempts have left her bruised and ashamed. With Juleka on the case she starts trying to pick up the pieces of Marinette trying to rebuild her confidence and distance her from Lila until she can find some way to let the rest of the class know about how Lila has been ruining their class presidents self esteem in a way worse than anything Chloe ever did.

But how does the story end? Does Juleka unknowingly guide Marinette into the waiting arms of Luka? The calm guitarist eager to help out in rebuilding the girls now fractured self confidence? Does his calm presence and the lack of pressure and bad experience make Marinette’s heart flutter? Lila rejoices in her victory poised to take Adrien for herself but failing as the model now suddenly seems hung up on the baker even though he never noticed her before? Does Luka rise in stardom with Marinette at his side the two becoming a power couple no one saw coming? All while Lila looks on in jealousy because even though she’s won somehow shes lost? Does she reveal herself in a fit of rage because she WON  and she should be happy but Marinette ruined it by somehow scoring the bigger fish? Does Marinette cry at the lose of what she thought was a friend? Does Adrien kick himself for not noticing her earlier? Does Juleka secretly dance because her brother and her dear friend are madly in-love and absolutely adorable together? 

Or maybe its Adrien? Because despite all the pain and all the failures and embarrassment and ruined attempts at dates and confessions thanks to Lila’s meddling Adrien felt himself getting drawn to Marinette? Maybe even the failed attempts made him feel closer to her somehow because of how vulnerable and honest the girl is with him and how she picks herself up even when she falls. Does he remember her face red as a tomato unshed tears in her eyes her hair dripping with noodles and sauce and he questions why he didnt grab her hand and wipe her tears and do anything he could to make her smile? Does Lila rage when she realizes her failure does she Juleka catch her threatening and admitting all her misdeeds to Marinette in the bathroom later that day? Does Adrien protect Marinette fiercely and vow to replace every day that Lila ruined with a day full of his love and appreciation for her? Does Lila turn out to be wrong completely and every fear she instilled in Marinette crumbles away as the media embraces the couple completely, and Gabriel adopts the girl eager to grow her talents? 

Or maybe its someone else? Felix? Kagami? Chloe? An OC? Lila herself having accidentally fallen for the baker and now needing to redeem herself so she can earn the girls love because she was sneaky and conniving and a liar and she ruined Marinette and tore her from Adrien and regrets it?

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[girlactionfigure]

The New Government Will Soon be Tested

Unless something very unexpected happens, Israel will finally get a government this coming Sunday.

I’m conflicted. I voted for Naftali Bennett and I’m happy that he will be Prime Minister, albeit in rotation with Yair Lapid, of whom I am less fond. But many elements of the agreements that the eight parties that will be in the government have signed with each other are troubling. Although they have not been officially made public, a TV news program released what it said were the details.

One of the provisions is said to be that any PM who serves eight years will have to take a four year hiatus before running again; and during this period he can’t even run for the Knesset. I am in favor of limiting the term of the PM, but it can’t be done in a retroactive way – that makes it a “personal” law aimed at one specific individual. And we know who that is.

Another provision is that if the government falls as a result of a vote of no confidence, Naftali Bennett will not be permitted to be a minister in the succeeding government. Apparently this aims to prevent the scenario in which Netanyahu persuades some members of one of the ruling parties to vote against the government, bringing it down, and then Bennett jumps to join him in a right-wing government.

These provisions require changes to the Basic Laws that serve Israel for a constitution. One of the “interesting” things about Israel’s system is that they can be changed by a simple majority of the members present in the Knesset. It’s almost as if the Democrats in the US could amend the Constitution so that nobody whose initials were D. T. could run for President.

And of course I am irritated by the fact that the government will have 28 expensive ministers and 6 Deputy Ministers, far more than are needed to run the country.

I’m very bothered by Mansour Abbas (not related to Mahmoud Abbas of the PA). The so-called “change government” – “change” meaning “without Netanyahu” – couldn’t get 61 mandates without support from one or more of the Arab parties. Mansour Abbas represents Ra’am, an Arab Islamist party that shares the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood (as does Hamas). His coalition demands have been mostly pragmatic – that is, he wants money for Arab communities. That in itself is not bad, but part of the deal is that he will receive half a billion shekels (about $154 million) that he can direct to “special projects.” That’s called a slush fund, and will be used to build a patronage empire to make him the most powerful Arab politician in the country.

He also received promises that laws against illegal building in the Negev will be frozen, and fines levied on such construction will be canceled. In recent years, Bedouin tribes have been increasingly squatting on land that belongs to the state or to private Jewish owners. There has also been a sharp increase in agricultural theft (of crops and equipment) and other crimes – especially the theft of weapons from IDF Bases – committed by Bedouins. Reducing enforcement will encourage more violations, which some say rise to the level of challenging Israel’s sovereignty in the Negev.

This government will be the first one in Israel’s history that does not include a single explicitly religious party – except Ra’am! Historian Efraim Karsh, in a recent talk, noted that neither Jordan nor Egypt allows representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood, which wishes to overthrow their states, in their governments. Why should Israel?

Many promises have been made to the left-wing parties that are part of the coalition. One of them requires a special note: there will be a “Department of Jewish Renewal” within the Diaspora Affairs Ministry, whose function will be to aid the Reform Movement in Israel. The likely Diaspora Affairs Minister will be Gilad Kariv, who is a Reform rabbi. I don’t have a theological objection to non-Orthodox Judaism; my problem is political: the Reform Movement in Israel is controlled and subsidized by the movement in the US, which doesn’t hide its desire to remake Israel in the image of a leftist America. Israel is not well-served by an organization that pushes the fantastic and dangerous idea of a two-state agreement with the PLO, or that appears to believe that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is like the American civil rights movement. It’s also waste of resources – the Reform movement has never gained traction in Israel, and is unlikely to do so even with government help.

There is a lot of very heated rhetoric coming from the Right – that Bennett and Lapid are traitors who have sold out the country because of their overweening ambition. That is clearly not the case. I do think they have the best interests of the state in mind. It should be noted that Bennett in particular has burned his bridges. If this government does not succeed, he is dead in politics.

At the same time, I don’t trust Mansour Abbas, the extreme-left Meretz party, or the only slightly less extreme Labor party. There are already rumors that representatives of the left-leaning parties have been in contact with American officials about resuming the “peace process.” It’s impossible to forget the way Shimon Peres and his associates blindsided Yitzhak Rabin with the Oslo process.

If you look at the ideologies of the various parties that ran in the recent election, it is clear that the great majority of Israelis prefer a right-wing government. If it were not for the question of Netanyahu, we would have a solid right-wing coalition of 70 to 80 mandates. Instead, we are getting a “unity” government that includes Meretz and Ra’am.

Israel is facing some serious tests now: last month, Arabs gangs in cities with mixed Jewish/Arab populations, incited by Hamas supporters on social media, went on a rampage that can only be called a pogrom, burning synagogues, cars, Jewish businesses, and Jewish homes, and beating (and even murdering) Jews. This accompanied the Hamas rocket attacks on Israeli cities. While news outlets tend to describe these events as “Jewish-Arab clashes” the Jewish part consisted mostly of attempts at self-defense where the police were unable to respond, and a comparatively small number of violent incidents perpetrated by Jews against Arabs. There are a huge number of illegal weapons in the hands of Israeli Arabs, including criminals, terrorists, and even ordinary citizens. Will the government have the courage and persistence to collect them?

The Biden Administration is pressuring Israel to limit the right of Jews to live in eastern Jerusalem. Will the government have the spine to resist the pressure?

Hamas is demanding the release of more than 1,000 Palestinians imprisoned for terrorism in Israel in return for two captive civilians and the bodies of two soldiers killed in a Gaza operation in 2014. Will the government give in and release those with blood on their hands, as it did in the exchange for Gilad Shalit?

We’ll know soon enough.

Abu Yehuda

[rpgmgames]

April’s Featured Game: Nobody's Home

DEVELOPER(S): oates ENGINE: RPG Maker MV GENRE: Survival Horror SUMMARY: After a night of extreme drinking and partying, you wake up in stranger's bed to discover... Nobody's Home.

Buy the game here! Our Interview With The Dev Team Below The Cut!

Introduce yourself! *oates: Hi, this is oates! I'm a pixel artist and game developer, I've started making games with rpgmaker in 2016 with VX Ace and now currently using MV for recent projects. Previous projects I've worked on were the FNaF-inspired Souls-like One Night at the Steeze, my first rpgmaker game and it's prequel, the FNaF-inspired roguelike No Delivery. Other games I've worked on include the fangames Day Dreaming Derpy, made in VX Ace and Spike's Day Off, made in MV and the latest in a series of previous fangames previously developed on Adobe Flash.

What is your project about? What inspired you to create this game initially? *oates: Nobody's Home is largely based on my experiments to find and apply horrific elements in modern situations or phenomena. The scenario being explored here in Nobody's Home is the aftermath of some crazy party. Sound design is especially important when crafting a horror scenario, so I often look to music to draw inspiration. Much of the atmosphere and house design was inspired by music and imagery associated with '70s yacht rock (a sub-genre of soft rock). Another important note is a lot of the general mood and 'weirdness' was inspired by a band I listen a lot to, Dance Gavin Dance, specifically their "deathstar" album. However they have a tendency in all their albums to switch genres mid-song, often going from their post-hardcore sound to funk, pop, and even rap; aside from that, some of the subject matter covered can range from disturbing to unpleasant to nonsensical, but combined with the amazing music, it creates an experience that pulls the listener in all different directions. It got to the point that I was naming events in the game after some their tracks so I had to be careful not to inadvertently make a fangame haha But there are some easter eggs in Nobody's Home that were intentionally left in, and I'm fairly certain players have identified it already.

How long did you work on your project? *oates: I used much of the same framework left over from my previous project No Delivery for this development cycle, so the hassle for setting up asset pipelines was very much mitigated. I started in earnest, making assets back in January this year so it took roughly 2+ months to finish development for this project.

Did any other games or media influence aspects of your project? *oates: Aside from the previous music inspirations, I was really intrigued with the way Resident Evil 7's Beginning Hour demo was able to pick up where Konami's cancelled PT left off in terms of survival horror games to look forward to back in 2017. Prior to later updates, the initial demo really only included a few set pieces, basic item interaction, and almost no puzzles from the full game. It was largely able to pull off scaring players from almost atmosphere alone (if you exclude the Jack Baker and ghost encounters). It was later in the full game that it was able to show off it's metroidvania-esque design to its fullest. After my previous project, I wanted to step away from roguelike design for a bit and focus a little more on an exploration-based experience, so I took a few notes from the way RE7 and RE2: Remake handled map design and progression.

Did you come across any challenges during development? How did you overcome or work around them? *oates: I was coming off a severe cold last year and it took most of January for me to recover, so it was a little hard to start full-on development immediately like I normally would on top of other career matters. And looking at events today, it's even more imperative that developers practice healthy habits during development.

Did any aspects of your project change over time? How does your current project differ from your initial concept? *oates: I've had the idea for Nobody's Home as a concept for a while, but filling in those gaps with actual gameplay between centerpieces was a big variable. I went back and forth between the turn-based item combat from the previous project to cutting out combat entirely. While I didn't implement it, I also brainstormed a few concepts for overworld action and combat ala Zelda, but it seemed too complex given the time frame I set for myself. Eventually I settled on a middle ground between full combat and separate encounters, with "enemies" acting as essentially a toll gate. The rest of the game followed suit with various tolls and "mouse traps" for the player to trigger at their own behest. This wasn't necessarily the design I had in mind at first, but it helped to concisely fill a relatively small location with specifically "deadly" content.

What was your team like at the beginning? How did people join the team? If you don’t have a team, do you wish you had one or do you prefer working alone? *oates: I largely work solo for both development and art, but I do regularly work with a few musicians for an original soundtrack. I first started working with other composers for the fangame Day Dreaming Derpy, where after the initial demo was released, I received emails from a few musicians volunteering to contribute some tracks for the game. In all, the original soundtrack contained 9 tracks in total, with 3 tracks from each composer; each of them doing an amazing job and, in my opinion brought the project back then to a higher degree of quality. This was how I met some of the composers I still work with today and they all have some really great work! TheNGVirus @NGVirusNG1 Kaminakat @thekaminakat dRedder @HornyGremlin

What is the best part of developing a game? *oates: It's a toss up between the initial brainstorming/research and the first run-through when you have your desired maps linked together. For the brainstorming, it's pretty fun to learn about subject matter you want to do justice to as well as stretching your creative muscles for the first time in service to a certain concept. However this obviously wears off when you devote too much time to a particular concept, but it's still enjoyable nevertheless. For making that run-through, it doesn't necessarily mean to have all the events implemented, but to experience your game the way players will experience it for the first time does give a sense of completion/cohesion to what you, as a developer, are trying to accomplish. It essentially puts what you're working on into a different perspective for you.

Do you find yourself playing other RPG Maker games to see what you can do with the engine, or do you prefer to do your own thing? *oates: I do keep an eye out for what other rpgmaker projects are doing, and to see what others can do with the engine helps get the creative juices flowing; it's also fun to try to mentally reverse engineer how certain mechanics or effects were made. And it's always great to see fellow devs showcase what's possible with the engine.

Which character in your game do you relate to the most and why? (Alternatively: Who is your favorite character and why?) *oates: Nobody's Home has a relatively small cast of characters, whom you do interact with but never see, this is largely to done to create a sense of "un-relatability", but if I had to pick a character, it'd be "car guy", the guy you find stuck in the car. They have a good line, " ...there'd be a good reason for this, but there isn't..." Story of my life.

Looking back now, is there anything that regret/wish you had done differently? *oates: There were a few areas I would have liked to expand on or add, specifically- the attic + roof, the front lawn, behind the walls, and an entire second floor. Unfortunately that meant potentially adding more questlines and NPCs while the first set of questlines were pretty interwoven so it would have been way more complex, also again, given the time frame I set, it would have extended the development cycle way beyond what I had time for. But if I had implemented those extra areas, the game's length would also go way beyond the 30 min - 1 hr it takes to complete the game as it is now.

Do you plan to explore the game’s universe and characters further in subsequent projects, or leave it as-is? *oates: I'd like to do both really, each installment of the VCRPG line of games is definitely a stand-alone story, or an isolated incident, but I would love to explore the aftermath of the game's events and how the passage of time ravages and twists the story into urban legend. I like to treat places and environments like characters as well, capable of making memories, being misunderstood, preserved, destroyed, and ultimately capable of change.

What do you most look forward to upon finishing the game? *oates: Both the fan reaction and free time honestly speaking. Once the development cycle finishes and the game is published, your work isn't really finished as there's always a chance someone's feedback can apply to immediate changes or patches you can implement, even during the release period. Marketing is also another large step to take into consideration after release, this includes tweeting, sending keys for lets plays, etc. Watching playthroughs is also a really good way to collect data on what parts of your design fall through and what fail to land. But after all that is said and done, some free time really helps the brain recuperate.

Was there something you were afraid of concerning the development or the release of your game? *oates: Just whether or not I handled the game's subject matter tastefully. Like horror cinema, everything done is in service the the themes and message of the piece as a whole.

Do you have any advice for upcoming devs? *oates: The game engine is essentially a tool, and like any tool you can find plenty of creative ways to get the same result. And don't be afraid to research whatever it is you need help with, it also helps to be specific with what you want.

Question from last month's featured dev @moca-pz: If you can collaborate with any game developer in the world, who would it be? What would be their role(s) and what would be your role(s)? *oates: Game developer I'd like to work with: Hidetaka Miyazaki His role: Story Lead and Director My role: Drinking buddy Game we're working on: SciFi Souls

We mods would like to thank oates for agreeing to our interview! We believe that featuring the developer and their creative process is just as important as featuring the final product. Hopefully this Q&A segment has been an entertaining and insightful experience for everyone involved!

Remember to check out Nobody's Home if you haven’t already! See you next month! 

- Mods Gold & Platinum

[notmyrick]

Also long side note/analysis:

In s4e10, Rick was part of the resistance against the Galactic Federation in his 30's which he said he grew out of.

In the comics (#34) while he was in the band The Flesh Curtains (which some sources say started in his college years, not sure when it ended though) , he also was starting off as a weapons dealer and got his first client/ friend Krombobulous Michael (Mike). After making the deal, in the following panel, Mike goes off in a killing spree and if you include the initial gun, and assume he got all his guns from Rick, he has a total of 4 guns, which at max means he met Mike 4 times to deal him weapons. At least from the first deal. Then we see another deal with Mike and Rick, this would be the 5th transaction, which this is where Rick confesses he fell in love. He has shorter hair, looks happy, and has the vibe of slowly becoming simple Rick as he even tells mike that he should fall in love. Same comic, when mike meets his wife amy they have a love montage where in the end they got married and surprise surprise, Rick is there with his iconic flask drinking as one of the groomsmen or as the best man wearing his common getup.

So this gives us a rough timeline that by the 5th transaction, Rick met his wife Diane when he became a well known weapons dealer and by the time Mike got married to Amy, he either had problems in his marriage or Diane already divorced or died. Most people married around their late 20's and early 30's and assuming Rick did the same maybe on the late side. He was also still part of the resistance against the government.

Also in Rickshank Redemption, does "weird" Rick give off any I'm against the Federation vibes? Like the outfit has the same feeling of space Beth? Anyone?

At the ending of Auto-Erotic Assimilation beth says:

And I know I sound like mom but I can't sacrifice this whole family's safety just because I'm afraid you'll leave again, 

So this is something Diane would say, maybe not word for word, but certainly the same tone, vibe, and message.

This begs me to question how did Rick threaten his family's safety? For the smartest man in the universe, you would think it be easy to slip under the radar of the government considering that Earth wasn't really under the Galactic Federation until Rick was in his 60s/70s(his current age) in Rickshank Redemption. Sure they sent a couple spies, but they didn't give Earth an olive branch to join anytime prior to this episode. To me this means that Earth was under watch, but they werent worth much of the Federation's time. So Rick could be considered "not a threat" in his 30s (debatably). Also in this episode, it shown during this time (also debatable) that he was trying to figure out interdimensional travel. So breaking down the jobs Rick had, he was a weapons dealer, he was still part of the resistance against the government, he may or may not be working on earth to bring money to the family, and he was an at home scientist. That's a lot. It's nice to note that Diane was supportive of Rick's science endeavors although she might not know much. It looked like the family didn't have much conflict, at least in the early years of the marriage.

So what was Rick doing that was threatening the safety of his family? From Diane's/Beth's words, he was always leaving and the threat always starts when he left. So here is my 2 scenarios.

The Citadel of Ricks. When interdimensional travel becomes a Rick thing, they created a "clubhouse" or government where only Rick's exsist. But since this is an earlier time, it can be assumed that the Citadel was very "primitive" at this time. Sure there are a bunch of Ricks and a group of geniuses can achieve a lot, but not nearly the end product we see in the show. Rome wasn't built in a day and most definitely the Citadel wasn't either. Maybe a day and a half at best lol. Anyway, I just dont think that the power the Citadel has now, is what they had back then. They can be threats individually, but not a threat as a whole, at least not yet. And since a lot of non cooperative Ricks view this as a clubhouse or party, it could be safely assumed that it was used as such initially.

The Galactic Federation. In his 30s he was still part of the rebel alliance. Which one can assume, he was still a rebel during his marriage. Now this I see much less of a threat. As shared previously, I believe that Rick can go under the Federation's nose and stay hidden. As a matter of opinion, if the Galactic Federation knew where Rick was, which presumably he was soely labeled as a criminal instead of the smartest mammal who discovered interdimensional travel, they would've already threaten/take over his home planet and more specifically threaten his family to get him to concede. Which I believe is not the case because Diane couldn't sacrifice this whole family's safety which implies the threat was more looming and mental, than it was physical and present.

In Diane's case the Citadel of Ricks, yes can threaten the safety of the family despite being Rick, knew and are aware of Diane and Beth. They even have the advantage of portal tech and know the dimension they come from. Diane and Beth are essentially sitting ducks in this scenario and this can be a looming and mental threat compromising the safety of the family. However there are two caveats.

Beth's adoration

Rick's presence

While the Citadel is a threat, it would be more of a threat to Diane than Beth. Both caveats are linked to Beth. They can psychologically torture Diane with multiple Ricks. As a spouse, you hope the person you love comes back, but with the interdimensional travel the person who comes back may not be the person you married. In addition, this doesnt threaten the safety of the whole family, it only threatens Diane. And it seems to me as along as (a) Rick is cordial and father like to Beth, she would be willing to suffer the mental abuse of multiple Ricks. This is assuming that the threat came to them and as stated before, I'm less inclined to believe this because while yes it is a looming threat and definitely a mental one, it is also a physical threat because there is an actual entity invading and I don't think there was any physical factor when Diane spoke these words. Not only that, but it has to threaten the life of one Rick sanchez along with the rest of the family.

The term "losing you" can be interpreted in a lot of ways, but the most common I think of is death. If the Citadel was threatening another version of himself, then it would make sense that they would target the Sanchez family when they are together. And the only way to threaten Rick is to kill his family, and the only way to threaten the whole family, is to kill everyone. Which again I think, the threat should be more psychological and mental, than having an actual physical threat. This also contradicts that the family's safety is threatened when Rick leaves. For Diane, this is an inescapable scenario where safety is never guaranteed. Either way it should have enforced Rick to stay by his family's side instead of leaving.

Which brings me to the second point: Rick's presence. If they did torture Diane with multiple Rick's that wasn't her Rick, to Beth's childhood, her father would have more presence, even if he tried to sneak around the child (I'd like to think that Beth was like a bloodhound when it came to her dad). Also in her words, "I'm afraid you'll leave again" implies she constantly saw her father leave her mother, herself, or both.

With the Galactic Federation, I can see a little more meat to this. If Rick was still a rebel and actively participated in the front lines, Diane is essentially married to a solider, who has a very realistic possibility of dying on the battlefields. In addition if Rick is the weapons dealer and if he is as infamous as he claims to be, then he paints, not only, a target on his back, but his family's as well. Assuming his world state is similar to ours with the exception of us not having a Rick, then Rick is the first and only human to interact with other intelligent, sentient life forms. To Diane, Rick is easily recognizable. So a psychological looming threat is possible and can even manifest into something worse due to imagination. Even if the truth says otherwise, as long as Diane wasn't aware of it, she would just think the worst.

Now moving on to Diane and Beth. Don't take this to heart bc Diane had no speaking lines only rare appearances and mentions here and there, so I'm taking a few liberties with Diane. You could say these are a few headcanons I had of Diane (subject to change). Beth said she "sounds like mom" which I translate Beth is bringing up common issues or problem arguments they had when she was young. Essentially her argument is very reminiscent of the missing/late Mrs. Sanchez whether it was tone, topic, or opinions. So instead of word for word of what Beth said I made Diane say: I can't risk our family's safety just because I'm afraid of losing you. Which, like beth, sounds like an ultimatum, and to further emphasize that point I made her say in addition to that: Choose Rick, come home or stay out. In the episode Rick essentially implies that the creation of Portal tech is what caused the divorce or death of Beth's mom. Although there was a fabricated backstory, the show also implied that what was out of the shoneys were real. And we have a real memory of Beth and her mom standing infront of Rick's green portal in between Rick's favorite sports blooper and where he was in 9/11. To me there must be a connection with the portal and Rick's wife. So here is where the headcanon or possible backstory of Rick's marriage. I believe that Rick was still part of the rebels against the government during his marriage, that the federation was the looming threat that may compromise the safety of the Sanchez family. I believe that Diane was supportive, but was always frightened when Rick would be gone days at a time without a single word. So Diane actually proposes that Rick call her whenever he was in trouble. Depending on the Rick, he either calls her constantly to the point where he abuses it and depends on her to get him out of a sticky situation or he doesnt call her at all to the point where she is informed by a close friend of Rick because they were worried for Rick. Either way, it stresses Diane out to where she is jaded and worried at the same time. In this scenario, she saved rick from gods know what and essentially snaps. She confronts Rick to either come home or stay away because Diane realizes he's no good trying to protect the galaxy and being a father/husband, but he could excel if he focuses on one or the other.

Anyway this is merely for me of I ever wanted to explore this concept of Rick X Diane, or do like a one shot of this exact scenario.

[livinginsunnyhell]

Ask game for fanfic writers! ⌨️🖊📓📝

1. What fandoms do you write for?

2. What pairings do you write for?

3. What is your most popular fanfic?

4. Do you write original stories as well?

5. What fanfic of yours should everyone have read?

6. What is a fandom you will never write for?

7. What is a ship you will never write for?

8. Archive of Our Own, FanFiction.net, Wattpad, Tumblr, etc. which platform do you prefer?

9. What are your favorite fanfics?

10. How do you stay motivated to finish what you’ve started?

11. What’s your longest fanfic?

12. Do you want to break your readers‘ heart or make them laugh?

13. What is your planning process?

14. What have others criticized about your fanfic?

15. OCs or no OCs?

16. Do you use sentence starters, writing prompts and/or fandom headcanons for your fanfics?

17. Do you use/follow advice from writing blogs/posts?

18. What is your favorite writing prompt?

19. Dead or overused tropes?

20. Can we get a list of all of your current available fanfics?

21. What’s your shortest fanfic?

22. Do you listen to music during your writing process? What music do you listen to while you’re writing?

23. Long chapters or short chapters?

24. How many WIPs (work-in-progress) do you’ve got?

25. How many WIPs will you finish?

26. First-person-narrative or third-person-narrative?

27. Do you take requests?

28. I will name you three things (drunk Ian — shared bachelor party — Gallavich): write a paragraph or two!

29. What’s more difficult? Fanfics or original work?

30. What writing software do you use?

31. Do you use beta/sensitivity readers?

32. Past or present tense?

33. Do friends and family know that you write fanfics?

34. How did you find the magical world of fanfics?

35. What is your favorite review?

36. Did you ever delete a work of yours?

37. Did your work ever get plagiarized?

38. Do you partake in any fanfic/writing events? (Big bangs, zines, NaNoWriMo, etc?)

39. Collaborations or working solo?

40. Do you have any rituals before uploading a fic?

41. What is something you don’t like about your writing?

42. Rudest review?

43. Guilty pleasure tropes and scenarios?

44. Does fanart of your fanfic exist?

45. Do fanfics of your fanfic exist?

46. Few long essay reviews or many short reviews?

47. What fanfic of yours is truly underrated?

48. What is your favorite sentence that you’ve used in a fanfic?

49. Where do you draw inspiration from?

50. Can we get a teaser for an upcoming chapter?

(Don't feel obligated to answer. Thought if you're into these kinda things, that'd be a nice ask. ;))

Oh this is so nice!! Thanks for sending this @annansmith

I chose a few of them to do. 

1. What fandoms do you write for?

Currently, I’m writing for Shameless (Gallavich) but I’ve written for:

Veronica Mars (LoVe), Veep (Amy/Dan), Arrow (Oliver/Felicity), Once Upon A Time (Hook/Emma), The Old Guard (Joe/Nicky), That 70′s show (Hyde/Jackie), Sons of Anarchy (Tara/Jax), Vampire Diaries (Klaroline), Hart of Dixie (Zoe/Wade), Gilmore Girls (Rory/Jess), X-men (Rogue/Pyro), One Tree Hill (Haley/Nathan), and a few others.

2. What pairings do you write for?

Now I write Gallavich. 

But I’d say my top ones I love writing for now (my fanfiction writing has spanned about 14 years) are Dan/Amy, Veronica/Logan, Klaus/Caroline, Mickey/Ian.

3. What is your most popular fanfic?

My most popular fic on Ao3 is The Course of True Love (Arrow) and on FF Of Bloodshed, Babies, and Epic LoVe (Veronica Mars)

4. Do you write original stories as well?

Yes, I do. I’m working on a book, well, two books. But it’s going very slowly. The first is a memoir of my travels from around the world and the second is a vampire urban fantasy one. We’ll see how it goes, but I’d like to finish them by next year and see if I can get them published, but it’s hard so who knows. 

10. How do you stay motivated to finish what you’ve started?

Well, recently I’ve really been trying to finish everything I write. I have a lot of WIPs from years and years ago and even within the the last year, so this answer is pretty new. Basically, I focus on one fic at a time and write a little every day to stay motivated. Now, I try to update once a week on a certain day. I think comments/reviews and kudos and people being genuinely encouraging helps though. It’s also what’s gotten me considering finishing my older fics.

11. What’s your longest fanfic?

Of Bloodshed, Babies, and Epic Love (over 165k)

13. What is your planning process?

Now, it’s different. I have a doc of ideas and I wait to see which one I can’t seem to shake. Then I plan out each chapter with a few sentences and I have a list of things I want to focus on in the story. Usually, each story now has a kind of theme to it and a main focus. I sometimes will just want to write a certain situation/scene/focus and the story is born from there. But what really helps is writing down chapter 1, 2, etc. and having a sentence or two for what I want to happen. It doesn’t always go according to plan, but I never get writers block or forget what happened in previous chapters now.

16. Do you use sentence starters, writing prompts and/or fandom headcanons for your fanfics?

Probably a mixture of fandom (or my personal) headcanons. I don’t start with prompts unless it’s a challenge or sentence starters. Usually, I have a scene I already want to write in my head and then I sit down and write it.

17. Do you use/follow advice from writing blogs/posts?

Yes, I’ve read several books on writing. My undergrad was creative writing too, so I learned a lot there. I also follow writing instagram accounts which are helpful. I take everything I learn with a grain of salt and I see what is best for me. The best advice I heard recently was short sentences and so now I’m experimenting with that.

20. Can we get a list of all of your current available fanfics?

There’s a lot from many different fandoms. I used to be on FF.net as Psyc0gurl0 and now I’m ProstheticLoVe on a03. I like writing on ao3 better cause it’s easier and I love the tagging process. Plus the gallavich fandom on there is unreal. So to think about going back to ff.net to finish my WIPs seems like such a process now. 

Currently though, I’m writing an Ian’s POV 5 chapter fic called Chocolate. It’s not out yet, but it’ll focus on Ian from 1x06 to 1x09 or so and how his feelings for Mickey change and evolve. It’s the second part to a series called Chocolate and Cigarettes. Mickey’s POV was Cigarettes.

22. Do you listen to music during your writing process? What music do you listen to while you’re writing?

Yes, I listen while writing but I need silence while editing. I have a Love (lol) playlist. It’s basically all the love songs that remind me of couples I ship. So for example, The Acid is in there a lot because their music is great, but also Basic Instinct is so haunting. Overall, I like all music except country, so sometimes I’ll listen to my larger playlists while writing. 

23. Long chapters or short chapters?

So this has changed over the years. Initially, I wrote short chapters, then when I got back into fanfiction while writing klaroline they got a lot longer and now it’s just basically where the chapter has a natural ending. So the chapters are between 4 - 10k words depending. I try to get over 4k though. Right now, once I’m done with my current fic, I really want to write something over 100k.

24. How many WIPs (work-in-progress) do you’ve got?

A lot...none in Shameless though. Well, I guess my current one, but I haven’t posted that yet. I’d say I probs have about 10 WIPs spanning different fandoms. I know. But my goal for 2021 is to pick two and finish them. 

25. How many WIPs will you finish?

Not all of them. Some of them are from years and years ago. But I’d like to finish the ones that I still get reviews on. So there’s a SOAs fic I want to finish cause that fandom is so lovely. I also want to finish a klaroline one cause that was fun to write. And my Amy/Dan ones I’d like to finish. I would like to finish my Veronica Mars ones (I have two) but they need a lot more attention, so when people message me about them I tell them the planned ending.

28. I will name you three things (drunk Ian — shared bachelor party — Gallavich): write a paragraph or two!

“Fuck, Mickey, I probably shouldn’t have had the third Hot Toddy,” Ian grimaced as the world around him spun. 

Mickey laughed at him and wrapped an arm around his shoulders. Ian wanted to think his future husband just wanted to pull him closer, but he had a feeling it was to steady him.

“Probably should’ve cut you off earlier,” Mickey said tugging Ian closer. 

Ian wobbled and plopped down on the back steps of the porch. Mickey followed suit a moment letter and they both looked out toward the backyard where the Gallaghers, Balls, and a few of the Milkovich cousins were alternatively huddling around a fire, drinking, and dancing.

“I blame Lip for making us have this stupid shared bachelor party in the first place,” Ian grumbled.

Mickey kissed him on the forehead as Ian lay his head on his shoulder. “It’s Sandy’s fault too.”

Ian hmmed in response and Mickey knew he was going to fall asleep any moment. He ran his hand up and down Ian’s arm and watched as Debbie bounced over to them.

“Jesus, you aren’t even married yet and you two are like an old married couple. Are you going to come dance or what?” she whined.

Mickey looked down at Ian, whose eyes were already closed, and then back up to Debbie. She was watching them with knowing eyes.

“We’ll dance at the wedding. Go grab Lip, I need his help to get Sleeping Beauty upstairs.”

Debbie turned to go get her eldest brother and Mickey looked back down at Ian. In his sleep, he nuzzled Mickey’s shoulder, breathed deeply, and a gentle smile appeared there. 

3 more days and they’d officially be husbands. 

34. How did you find the magical world of fanfics?

I was about 10 and my cousin used to write a buffy the vampire slayer zine. There was a link to a site called buffyworld.com or something like that. And I found fanfic that way. There was a link on the site to ff.net and that’s how I stumbled across that. I stayed there for many many years until my second time in the veronica mars fandom around 2014 when I was lead to a03 and then I’ve been there ever since. On and off, my writing has fluctuated through the years based on my personal life.

49. Where do you draw inspiration from?

Everywhere! omg. It’s insane. Gallavich I love writing for. There’s so many different facets to them, but truly everywhere I find inspiration. I have a whole doc of gallavich ideas that have stemmed from other fanfics, headcanons from me and other people, rewatching episodes, what’s going to happen in s11, cute moments i’d like to see happen, holidays, and just general life. I saw a pic of WW2 vets who were in a long term relationship and i was like mickey and ian! another idea is born.  

[josephmchammas]

Strengths and Weaknesses

Financial Planning Over the years, I’ve done well to save the money I’ve earned. Seeing my older brother and his friends get bogged down by student debt spurred me to be more conscientious about my spending as I went through high school. All throughout high school I worked summers at a warehouse in assembly and packaging, putting most of the money I earned into a savings account. By the time I was ready for college, I had put away enough money to comfortably pay off my tuition with minimal assistance. As I progressed and explored new opportunities in college, I found another part-time job and kept saving to avoid having to take out any loans. I’ve always had the mentality that financial security begins with a future-minded outlook. Always having that cushion of savings to fall back on and living within your means is important. As I grew older, I sought out basic investments, mutual funds, RRSPs, etc. knowing what kind of expenses I would potentially face some day (marriage, home ownership, children). My skills centre around budgeting and saving for personal financial growth, but where I’d like to become more well-versed is short-term planning in a business scenario and knowing where to allocate funding to ensure success.

Sales/Negotiation I feel like I’m an effective communicator in general but I feel I have a lot to learn when it comes to sales. As a young musician hoping to sell CDs in 2008, I did well to create my product with as little overhead as possible (finding inexpensive print shops, enlisting help from close friends, buying slim jewel cases in bulk from wholesalers and burning/imaging each CD myself at home to keep costs down). At my CD release show, I did very well, moving 70 out of 100 CDs at $5 each. This resulted in a great profit that more than justified my initial spend. As time went on and I booked more gigs, I was barely moving any CDs because there were nowhere near as many people at those gigs. I was missing an important part of the process that the other artists on the bill at that first show had taken care of for me: “selling” myself and the show. I could be as friendly and personable and helpful at the merch table selling CDs as ever, but none of it mattered if no one was there to buy. I hope to learn some new tools and tricks to sell “experiences” by using promotion, advertising, etc. and get people interested in the product, whatever it may be.

People management I get along very well with most people and haven’t had any real issues working toward a common goal with a group, but overall, I do feel like more of a follower than a leader in these scenarios. I’ve had instances in my career where I’ve had to delegate work and responsibility to a small team of people but these were co-workers that I had already established a great relationship and rapport with. I would love to learn more about how to navigate these kinds of scenarios in a business setting. I feel I have the communication skills to lead, but I would like to work on establishing a presence as a subject matter expert.

[angelicthor]

i’m not the only one

in the lonely hour: part 3

pairing: bucky barnes x reader

summary:  Bucky Barnes has spent his whole life waiting for you but after the fall and his time with HYDRA, he thought his chance of finding you was over. But after joining the Avengers and meeting you - the girl he’d been waiting his whole life for - Bucky starts to question if he really can get his happily-ever-after, or if it really is too late.

warnings/genre: angst

masterlist | in the lonely hour masterlist

You’ve been so unavailable Now sadly I know why Your heart is unobtainable Even though you don’t share mine

The conversation Bucky had with Steve did nothing to change his mind; he wasn’t going to tell you how he felt, he couldn’t risk you like that. You were such a vital part of Bucky’s life now and even though every fibre of his being screamed for more, he wouldn’t allow it, reasoning with himself that if he truly loved you then he’d let you go and find someone better than him, someone who could give you everything you needed. Someone who wasn’t so fucking damaged.

But the thought of you in the arms of someone else made him feel sick, his heart twisting in his chest until he found it hard to breathe, nevertheless he pushed those thoughts aside. Bucky would just have to cross that bridge when he got there, until then he’d treasure every moment he got to spend with you.

You and Bucky spent most days together and at this point everyone in the tower expected it, knowing wherever one of you were the other wasn’t far behind. Being with Bucky was just easy and you loved spending time with him above everyone else. And honestly that was becoming a problem for you; your feelings for Bucky were growing beyond the parameters of friendship and into something much more profound.

Bucky had always kept some distance from you and it was completely understandable after what he’d been through; there was always some space between you on the couch when you watched films, his breath would always hitch when you accidently brushed hands and you always left it to him to initiate contact because you didn’t want to make him feel uncomfortable. God, that was the last thing you would ever want.

The only time Bucky ever really came to you for physical comfort was after his nightmares and you were more than happy to pull him into your arms, fingers gliding through his hair as your other hand soothingly stroked up and down his back as he buried his face in your neck. His strangled breathing would even out into deep exhales and the tension his body held would melt away under your touch. This was when you hated yourself the most. What kind of a person would wait with anticipation for the man they loved to have a nightmare just so they could comfort them, so they could pull them into their embrace because they simply couldn’t any other time?

You knew your feelings for Bucky were becoming far too overwhelming and you couldn’t risk him finding out, you couldn’t put that pressure on him – Bucky was still recovering from everything he had been through, the last thing he needed was one of his best friends throwing themselves at him. So, you decided to do something about it.

The screen was lit up with yet another film, you and Bucky were watching the Godfather films today but as usual, Bucky spent more time watching you than the movie, it was one of the rare times he could indulge in simply observing you without you noticing, far too enraptured in the film to detect his gaze. The chime coming from your phone confused him, everyone knew that you two were watching films and the rest of the team let you be when you were, so who was messaging you? His brows furrowed in confusion as a smile grew on your face as you read over the message you’d received, fingers tapping out a quick reply before you quickly put the phone down. Bucky thought that would be the last of it but the chime from your phone rang out again, him glaring at the device that was interrupting your time together.

You smiled once again at whatever was written on the screen and Bucky felt an uneasiness building within him, his stomach sinking as a thousand different scenarios ran through his mind a mile a minute.

“Who’s that?” He tried to sound casual but the scratchiness of his throat prevented it, he could only hope you thought it was because he hadn’t spoken throughout the film.

Your head shot up, not realising Bucky had been watching the whole exchange as your cheeks heated up under his questioning gaze. “Um, it’s just Chad, he wants to know when I’m free.”

Chad? Who the fuck was Chad?

“Who’s Chad?” God, he hoped he didn’t sound as unbelievably jealous as he felt.

“You know; he’s one of the newer agents, works in the technology labs in hacking?”

Yep, Bucky knew Chad. And he hated him. He leered at you like a piece of meat whenever he saw you, cocksure smirk plastered across his face like he thought he could get you at the drop of a hat. Bucky wanted nothing more than to send the guy to med bay with some interesting injuries whenever he saw him shamelessly trailing his eyes across your body. Of course, like you were with Bucky, you were completely oblivious to Chad’s eyes on you.

Why the hell were you messaging this tool?

“Oh, yeah I know him. Why does he need to know when you’re free?”

You couldn’t help squirming under Bucky’s unwavering gaze, guilt building within you even though you and Bucky were no more than friends, that the reason you were doing this was to stop the blossoming feelings for him but hey, when did emotions ever make an ounce of sense?

“Um, well - we’re kinda going on a date…” You bite your lip, trying to conceal all traces of shame those words roused in you.

Bucky felt his world crumble apart at your words. The pain in his chest sharp like someone was twisting a hot blade deeper and deeper into his beating heart. The inevitable was finally happening and it felt so much worse than Bucky could have ever anticipated. Of course, not a trace of this crossed his face, being an assassin for the past 70 years had given him many skillsets and being able to mask emotions, even excruciating heartbreak, was one of them.

Giving you a forced smile Bucky wished you a good time on your date. “Well, you kids have fun, don’t do anything I wouldn’t do.”

You snorted at this but you felt something shift between you at the news, your heart sinking as you thought about how much you rather be going on a date with him instead. You both turned back to the film, both unsuccessfully attempting to focus on the screen rather than the thoughts racing through your heads telling you that what was happening was a huge mistake that needed to be stopped.

Neither of you listened to those screaming voices.

[gogogogolev]

Hi, I was rewatching Stephen's free skate from the summer competition and I think I've found an answer to the original 4Lz/4T/3S+3T/Spin/4S/3A+3T/3A/3Lz+eu+3S/Stsq/Spin/Spin layout that was submitted for jr worlds. At the competition he did 3Lz(fall)/3T/3S+3T/Spin/3S/2A+2T/2A/3Lz(REP, looks like he twisted his ankle on the landing?)/Stsq/Spin/Spin. Another question I would have is why doesn't the layout with 2 triple toes violate the Zayak rule? Pt. 1

Hi anon, and thank you for the asks. I've put a screenshot of your part 2 in this response to part 1 because Tumblr doesn't let us merge asks.

That submitted layout for JWC was likely based on what he wanted to do initially, as you have realized, but it violates the Zayak Rule. He removed all the quads except the 4S from his programs this season, so that layout was not going to happen anyways. The ISU Technical Panel Handbook for single skating 2019-2020, page 18, should clarify some things for you.

A well balanced Free Skating program must contain: 7 jumping elements for Senior & Junior, Men & Ladies one of which must be (or must include) an Axel type jump. Solo jumps can contain any number of revolutions. Any double jump (including double Axel) cannot be included more than twice in total in a Single’s Free Program (as a Solo Jump or a part of Combination / Sequence). Of all triple and quadruple jumps only two (2) can be executed twice. Of the two repetitions only one (1) can be a quadruple jump. If at least one of these executions is in a jump combination or a jump sequence, both executions are evaluated in a regular way. If both executions are as solo jumps, the second of these solo jumps will be marked with the sign “+REP” and will receive 70% of its original Base Value. Triple and quadruple jumps with the same name will be considered as two different jumps. No triple or quadruple jump can be attempted more than twice.

I am not sure which layout you are referring to, but any free skate layout that does not follow these rules will lead to invalid elements or reduced base value for elements. Page 22 of the handbook explains the different free skate scenarios, and how they will be evaluated.

Repeating a 3T affects other triples in Stephen's programs. If he repeats a 3T, he can only repeat one other triple. Or he can do two 3Ts, repeat no other triples, and repeat one quad jump. The repeated quad would have to be in combination to not be marked as a '+REP'. If Stephen repeats more jumps than he's allowed to, then the additional repeated jumps would be marked as invalid. The required solo 3Lo for the 2019-2020 season was not for the FS, but for the SP.

In 2018/19 Stephen used to repeat his 3A, once in combination. At 2019 Nationals he also repeated his 3T. This season, he was supposed to be repeating 3A and 3Lz. The combinations for those were 3A2T and 3LzEu3S. But he didn't manage to skate that layout clean in competition. It looks like in the future he wants to repeat both 4S and 3A. If we adjust that JWC layout, splitting jumps between the first and second halves, the layout could be 4Lz,4T,4S2T//4S,3A3T,3A,3LzEu3S. He could also do 4S3T and 3A2T instead, but I suspected in the 2018-19 season that he wanted to do 3A3T in the second half to rack up some extra points (he did manage to do it once). Or he could even change the order of the quad Salchows, to backload the one in combination, but I would guess it would be tiring to do all three combinations in the second half, and maybe the timing wouldn't work out. The JWC layout could also easily be fixed by just putting a 3F3T in place of 3S3T.

The good thing about all this is that he has options, and room to maximize his BV. He has something to build towards when his quads return. And maybe we'll be able to see some new combinations from him. Or maybe some new combinations we've never seen before in skating. When it comes to him, who knows? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

The staggering economic toll of the new coronavirus is becoming abundantly, unavoidably clear. On Thursday, a Department of Labor report showed that a record-shattering 3.3 million people applied for initial unemployment claims last week. And with entire industries shuttered for the foreseeable future, economic output will almost certainly shrink dramatically.

As economic forecasts grow darker, talk of tradeoffs is getting louder: Is protecting Americans from COVID-19 really worth all this disruption and economic pain?

On March 22, before President Trump floated the idea of reopening the economy by Easter, against the recommendations of his own public health experts, he tweeted, “WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF.” Other politicians, meanwhile, rejected the idea that economic costs should be a factor at all. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo dismissed Trump’s push to get the economy moving again, saying, “No American is going to say, ‘accelerate the economy at the cost of human life.’ Because no American is going to say how much a life is worth.”

Cuomo’s sentiment might be a nice bit of political rhetoric, but it’s not really true. Economists might not be able to say how much an individual person’s existence is worth, but they have figured out a way to calculate how much how much the average person is willing to pay to reduce the risk of death — which allows them to put a price tag on the collective value of saving one life. That figure, which currently hovers somewhere around $9 or $10 million, is known as the “value of statistical life,” and it’s the basis for all kinds of high-stakes decisions that involve tradeoffs between public safety and economic cost — from food and automobile regulations to our responses to climate change.

As cold-blooded as it might seem, several economists told me that, at least in theory, a pandemic is exactly the kind of situation this metric is designed to help with. “Essentially, we’re trying to figure out what our society is willing to pay to reduce the risk of mortality,” said W. Kip Viscusi, an economist at Vanderbilt University and one of the leading experts on these calculations. “In that sense, a pandemic isn’t so different from a terrorist attack or a pollutant that’s threatening to kill large numbers of people — it’s just happening very quickly and on a very large scale.”

The idea that a life could have a monetary value isn’t necessarily easy to swallow from an ethical perspective. Economists and government regulators have to balance the risk of death against all kinds of other factors, though, and the concept of the VSL was developed several decades ago because economists didn’t like the idea of assigning that value through other, more intuitive means, like our contributions to the economy as workers. “It’s fairly simple to value someone’s life based on how much money they make,” said Spencer Banzhaf, an economist at Georgia State University who has written about the history of the VSL. “But in addition to being baldly crude, that’s just not reflective of the way we think about people. We don’t think a retired person is worth nothing.”

The VSL, instead of trying to sum up the value of a life, approaches the question from the other direction — how much are we willing to spend to reduce the odds of dying?

Economists draw the numbers from multiple sources, including surveys and assumptions about our own choices, like how much additional money people earn for especially dangerous jobs, or how much a premium they’ll pay for a safer car. The estimates do vary, but they fall in the same basic range — the EPA’s valuation falls around $9.4 million, while Viscusi’s latest calculation is $10 million. To put it another way, Viscusi’s estimate means that if a group of 10,000 people is facing a 1-in-1000 risk of death, they’re willing to pay $1,000 per person to reduce the odds that any given member of the community will die.

These numbers show why spending trillions of dollars to combat a threat like the coronavirus pandemic can be a good investment, despite the high cost. “Let’s say one of our worst-case scenarios comes to pass, and 2 million people die,” said James Hammitt, an economist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the director of the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis. “Multiply that by $9 million or $10 million and we’re talking about up to $20 trillion as the value of preventing those deaths. That suggests it’s worth expending a fair amount of our resources to mitigate this.”

But back-of-the-envelope calculations can obscure some of the knottier questions that plague economists who have studied this issue for decades. The VSL varies by country, because the wealth of the average person in a rich country like the United States is much higher than that of a person in a poorer country like India, which means Americans can “pay” more to avoid risk. That outcome is liable to make most people uncomfortable, and weighing the value of other types of lives — for example, the young versus the old — is tricky, too .

For example, even though the coronavirus appears to result in much a higher mortality rate for older people — prompting some politicians to propose that they should consider sacrificing themselves to save the economy — trying to put a lower price tag on their lives hasn’t worked well in the past. Joseph Aldy, a public policy professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, said that under President George W. Bush, the EPA tried to put a lower value on the life of an older person in calculating the benefits of air quality regulations. In their analysis, the life of a person over the age of 70 was worth 37 percent less than the life of a younger person.

“It was a political disaster,” Aldy said. The policy was christened the “senior death discount” and in response, AARP ran ads featuring a picture of an elderly woman with a “37 percent OFF!” tag hanging from her glasses. The EPA backed off and never implemented the proposed changes.

Outside the glare of the political spotlight, though, that experience hasn’t stopped economists from exploring whether age-based valuations are right in some circumstances. There’s evidence, Aldy said, that people’s willingness to pay to reduce the risk of mortality starts to decrease after age 50. But those kinds of calculations, he added, are sometimes disconnected from the moral valuations we make collectively. “We spend the vast majority of our health care dollars on people over the age of 65, and yet one might say the age-adjusted value of statistical life for that population is lower,” Aldy said. “It’s a kind of social compact — we recognize your contributions to our society and will provide the resources to keep you healthy as you age. So how far can this economic analysis really go when we’ve made that decision as a society?”

And even accounting for age might not provide a compelling argument against the measures currently being taken in response to the pandemic. Two economists used age-adjusted VSL in a recent analysis of the economic cost of social distancing — and they still found that the public health response to coronavirus had “substantial economic benefits.”

The sheer uncertainty of the coronavirus crisis is another problem — both in terms of the potential death toll and economic impact. Estimates of how many people might die in the U.S. are all over the place — some as low as 200,000, others as high as 2 million. And Banzhaf said that just as age-based calculations have their limitations, the scope of the economic costs has to go beyond earnings or GDP. “Depending on how long this shutdown goes on, we’re talking about a huge hit to the common good and our way of life,” he said. “If symphonies, hotels, art galleries, restaurants close and can’t come back — that’s a loss that goes way beyond earnings dollars. I don’t know how you begin to quantify it.”

If anything, though, the uncertainty and fear of the coronavirus pandemic could drive the value of statistical life even higher. Studies have shown, Hammitt said, that because people are more afraid of flying on airplanes than driving in cars, they are willing to shell out for airplane safety measures. “We see the same thing with terrorism risk,” Hammitt said. “When a kind of death is more dreaded or ambiguous, people are willing to pay more to avoid dying that way.”

But Aldy told me that cost-benefit analyses would have been most helpful at earlier stages of the crisis, when the government had the opportunity to invest in testing and surveillance. At this point, he told me, he wasn’t sure why a cost-benefit analysis was needed to drive home the cost of a huge loss of life — particularly since he, like many other economists and public health experts, thinks that containing the virus is the best way to ensure the economy rebounds quickly.

“Let’s say we’re talking about 1 million deaths or 2 million deaths,” he said. “When you think about the economic damage and the damage to families and communities all over the country, I don’t think you need an egghead like me to try to put a price on that. It’s catastrophic.”

[mbatradingacademy]

4 Days Remain for 16K Bitcoin Price 4Chan Prophecy: Now Possible?

This week's Bitcoin price (BTC) was a popular topic. After the gigantic run on Oct. 25 from $7,400 to over $10,500, it certainly looks like the article from last week saying the early stages of a positive reversal comes to fruition.

Weekly crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com

As normal, wild speculation has been raised on Crypto Twitter that the Bitcoin price boom was a direct result of Chinese President Xi Jinping calling for an increase of blockchain technology growth as stated by My Bitcoin Academy last week.

While this was great news to hear, it's unlikely that it was the only explanation for Bitcoin's price to make one of its 10-year lifespan's biggest price increases. It is more likely that the rally was a result of several factors, including the news from China, as well as powerful techniques.

The Bitcoin 4Chan Anon Prophecy

Anon Prophecy. Source: 4Chan

Many traders are going to roll their eyes, but they can not ignore it. Initially posted on January 21, 2019, so far this year, this well-known meme has been incredibly accurate.

The meme reads as follows:

“The bottom was December 15, 2018. Just look at the charts. We are in the bull market. We are currently in the last 3 months of the accumulation stage. After that, we slowly rise and rise. Then we will boom. Screencap this.  

April 2019 - BTC ~ $5,300

July 2019 - BTC ~ $9,200

October 2019 - BTC ~ $16,000

February 2020 - BTC ~ $29,000

July 2020 - BTC ~ $56,000

November 2020 - BTC ~ $87,00

This will be a 1.5 trillion market cap. The dominance of BTC will only 40- 46%

The charts never lie”

With only 4 days left to fulfill the prophecy, one must wonder if the above prediction anticipated the current price action or not. It was not on any charts that I was watching. The trend, however, leads me to ask just who the early adopters of Bitcoin are. I'm not thinking about those who take Twitter and are public about it. I mean, who are the kind of people who in the early days invested and mined Bitcoin and keep quiet about it?

The solution is geeks, and what do geeks like to watch? Anime, just like the anon post's avatar. So let's just think for a moment outside the box and consider whether with their early stash a reclusive individual or group might be manipulating Bitcoin price.

For an asset that once was worth less than a penny and now sells for about $9,600, it's not so far fetched. What someone or a group working together would have to do is make the manipulation seem less transparent by timing their moves to align with potentially market-moving news, much like President Xi's recent nod to blockchain adoption.

While it may seem like a tinfoil hat conspiracy I wouldn't want to condemn this meme prediction just yet, considering its past accuracy. While it may seem like a tinfoil hat conspiracy I wouldn't want to condemn this meme prediction just yet, considering its past accuracy. In fact, shortly after Bitcoin's meteoric step on Oct. 26, Edward Snowden tweeted out the anon anime avatar. It adds weight to Bitcoin's reclusive holder theory.

Nevertheless, the strange things happening to Tether (USDT) is one such hypothesis that would justify both the Bitcoin pump and its subsequent volatility.

Tether arbitrage  

Shortly before the October 25 Bitcoin pump, My Bitcoin Academy announced the detention of Crypto Captial's head in connection with the laundering of cash from a drug cartel. Given the close existence of Crypto Capital's partnership with Bitfinex and the $850 million that Tether's assets are lacking as a result of that relationship, it is reasonable to assume that Tether could be a hot potato right now.

The Tether markets appeared very odd 24 hours after the news broke, in some cases, they dropped by 5%.

Tether Markets. Source: Coin360.com

Is the massive price of Bitcoin going from $7,400 to $10,500 due to the dumping of Tether into Bitcoin in fears of imminent collapse? Soon after the value of Bitcoin settled in the area of $9,500, there were wild wicks on the charts and a large rise in the volume of Bitcoin trading.

Bitcoin volume data. Source: Bitcoinity

The daily volume jumped from 120,000 BTC to 208,000 BTC being traded, as can be seen on the chart Was this boost the result of traders capitalizing on a simple 5% profit based on buying discounted Tether and waiting for their return to the dollar peg? Currently, the price of Tether has returned to $1.00 so it could soon be a second pump on the cards.

Bitcoin technicals

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Three rates of significance for the week ahead are shown on the daily chart by the Bollinger Bands indicator (BB). The moving average (MA) is $8,200, $7,400 in support and $9,150 in resistance. Bitcoin's price at the time of writing is $500 over the resistance as it is currently trading over $9,600 and rising rapidly.

Seeing the weekly graph provides a better idea of where the price could be going next as the resistance is broken.

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

The weekly graph reveals that at the Bollinger Bands MA, which is around $9,880. Bitcoin still encounters resistance. As the market continues to reach this level of resistance it is only a matter of time before one of two things is achieved by the price:

A support reversal, which is $7,700.

A continuation of the trend of $12,000 for the next stop.

With some further analysis using other metrics, it is possible to see that there is a complete bullish reversal of the Bitcoin price.

Dramatic changes in the MACD moving average convergence

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

The daily MACD on Oct. 24 shows a complete bearish-to-bullish reversal. The candle strength on the histogram and the bullish divergence from the signal line removed all signs of a bearish crossover.  

This in effect, on the weekly MACD, is changing the trend, but it's not quite there yet.

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

There are two early signs of a bullish reversal in the weekly MACD. The first is the blue MACD line beginning to pinch, while the details shown on the histogram may indicate a dramatic change tonight on the candle close.

The histogram also features a pale pink candle. This would normally signal a slight upward trend for a few weeks. The candles slowly grew smaller during this period and remained pink until the price was higher than the last green candle.

The price action is typically not so aggressive, however, and the change last week was so good that the price of Bitcoin could even print a green candle on the histogram tomorrow if it closes above the $9,880 weekly MA.

The last green candle was the week that began on August 19. That was when trading between $9,800 and $11,000 for Bitcoin. If the price of Bitcoin manages to challenge the resistance of $9,880 and pushes through it, the weekly MACD will see a huge change.

This would be a huge cue for investors to buy. Realistically, this could spark a rally at or above $12,000, meaning bears don't win this week. It doesn't actually look like they're going to win next week either.

As with every big rally, there is always a pullback, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is usually the best place to search for this data.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is surprisingly neutral 

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

A move like the one witnessed on Oct. 25 would typically result in an RSI reading well over 70 which means that Bitcoin has become overbought.

Surprisingly, the RSI is now in the mid-60s and this shows room for growth. One would normally expect the asset to be ripe for a pullback after such a big price change. Suddenly, before the end of October, a $16,000 Bitcoin price doesn't seem so far fetched after all, and even more neutral is the weekly RSI.

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin is again being planted in the middle range, as can be seen on the RSI for the weekly period. This is expected to change on the candle close at midnight, but in the week ahead things look positive for the digital asset with a reading of just 51 coupled with the current upward trajectory.

Bearish scenario

Bitcoin value is still trapped in the lower range of the Bollinger Bands as far as the charts are concerned. It means that the price may still fall to $7,700, seeking support along the way around $8,200. If the price hits $7,700, the last support level will be around $7,400 before a freefall to $6,000.

Logically speaking, Bitcoin is expected to experience selling pressure from traders taking profits from the big move of last week, but Bitcoin is known to provide surprises. It's hard to suggest that we're at the end of a bull market, but in the short term, it certainly doesn't look promising for the bears.

Bullish scenario

It seems almost incomprehensible that the price of Bitcoin will continue to increase next week, but the last few days of market action shows that this is a possibility. Next week the price of Bitcoin will have to crack and hold rates above $9,880 to shape a new aid and equipment for the next push to $12,000 or more.

When the price falls under $9,150 then Bitcoin may have to turn over the torch to the bears. As for the prediction of the Bitcoin meme, $16,000 is definitely not on the charts, and the charts are not lying, as anon pointed out.

The opinions and views expressed here are solely those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect My Bitcoin Academy's views. Every move to invest and trade involves risk. Before making a decision, you must carry out your own analysis.

[moonscribe]

Dungeon Blogging #3: Wizard Hunter Monk

The monk often struggles to carve out it’s niche in a party of four or less. They aren’t healers or spell-slingers, they usually don’t make very good tanks, and they lack the skill versatility of rogues. Sure monks can deal good damage but 5th edition is generally pretty good about making sure every class has that potential. Monks are my favorite class so I spend a lot of time thinking about it and I’m here to share a build that’s designed to carve out a role for the monk in your party: The Wizard Hunter.

Spellcasters are very good, that’s just a fact. Left unchecked, an enemy wizard can be disastrous for your party and when your facing down a band of orcs, you’re going to want to disable that Orc Eye of Gruumsh before they can cast Bless or Spiritual Weapon. Your monk is here to be that check. Built properly, a monk can get in and out of anywhere, including right up close to whatever squishy magic-user keeps throwing Fireballs at your party.

The base class gives you a suite of important abilities for your anti-mage tactics. You get Unarmored Movement at level 2, a bonus to your movement speed that will help you blitz into melee range of a mage and escape when their reinforcements come. At level 9 your Unarmored Movement improves, gifting you with the ability to walk on water and up vertical surfaces. Wall running can let you bypass enemies blocking the way and being able to ninja up the side of towers will let you reach the balconies that wizards often cast from. You can’t stop moving while your on water or running up walls but given that you’re already level 9 that’s a 45 foot run, doubled if your dashing. That means you can run 90 feet straight up no sweat.

This pairs well with Step of the Wind, one of the Ki powers you get at level 2. For a single Ki point SotW lets you bonus action dash and doubles your jump distance. If you are level 9 and want to hit a flying caster that is up to 70 feet in the air and 20 feet away from any vertical surface, you only need to have a Strength of 10 to do it, running up the wall and kicking off of it when you’re at the right height. “But wait!” you shout, “That’s 70 feet in the air! How will you survive the fall?”

You’re a monk, you don’t care about gravity! When you were level 4 you got Slow Fall which ignore the first 5 x your monk level of fall damage. Since this free falling monk is at least level 9 they prevent 45 points of fall damage. Given that fall damage is only 1d6 for every 10 feet, that fall only deals 42 points of damage at the absolute maximum. In 5e fall damage caps off at 20d6, an average of 70 damage. A level 14 monk can walk the plank of a sky ship, plummet like a meteor, make a crater on impact, then walk off with a 50% chance of being at max HP afterwards. Make sure your other party members are aware of this specific scenario as it will definitely come up and they will definitely assume you’re dead.

Most spellcasters don’t have the best Constitution saves so your Stunning Strike at level 5 is going to land more often than not. Killing the caster in one round isn’t always going to be an option, so disabling them for that round can turn the tide of an encounter.

Finally in the core monk we have Evasion, a level 7 feature that monks share with rogues. It says when you would make a Dexterity save to take half damage, which is how most area of effect spells operate, you instead take no damage on a successful save and half damage on a failed one. This means that you can dodge Meteor Swarm and take no damage and always taking half damage from any Fireballs or Burning Hands that manage to hit you.

There are lots of races suited to wizard hunting. Humans can get a feat at level 1 and Mage Slayer is what made me first look at this build. It makes 5e spellcasters play by the old rules where casting spells next to you meant that you cast fist on their face. It also makes it hard for them to concentrate and gives you advantage on your saving throws against their spells. For a second feat I suggest Mobile. Since monks notoriously suffer from MAD (multiple attribute dependency) they rarely can afford to take feats over ability score increases. This is why Human is a very strong option. Wood Elves are always a good pick for monks with their bonuses to both Dexterity and Wisdom and Fleet of Foot making them even faster. Fey Ancestry gives them advantage against being charmed, very useful against spellcasters who would cast Charm Person or Suggestion on you given the opportunity. Yuan-Ti have advantage on all saving throws against magic due to their Magic Resistance which is crazy powerful. That said Yuan-Ti are strong to the point of it being controversial to some people so if you go this route make sure to ask your DM. Plenty of other races have relevant powers and ability score increases as well. I’m personally a big fan of high mobility races like Tabaxi or races with teleportation like Eladrin.

Way of Shadow is by far the best subclass for this build. Stealth is easily one of the most useful skills in D&D and the shadow monk is second only to the rogue. That said, the Prodigy feat (Human/Half-elf/Half-orc exclusive) or multiclassing just one level of rogue for Expertise is all you need to completely surpass the rogue in stealth. A stealth build will let you sneak behind enemy lines and preemptively kill the wizard before even rolling initiative. Shadow Arts gives you the Minor Illusion cantrip and 4 spells that you can cast at a cost of 2 ki points: Darkness, Darkvision, Pass Without Trace, and Silence. Since your Ki refreshes on short rest and the duration of Darkvision is 8 hours, be sure to cast it on your non-darkvision party members and short rest before each adventure. Pass Without Trace in 5th edition is crazy, granting +10 to Dexterity (Stealth) checks. With it you’ll probably be rolling somewhere around the 24-27 range at level 3. Stealth rolls that high are going to bypass almost any passive perception and help you get extremely close to the enemy mage. Once within range, spend 2 more ki points to cast Silence to shut off their ability to scream for help or alert enemies while also disabling their ability to cast any spell with a vocal component. Unless they are very observant and quick witted, they’ll likely waste a turn trying to cast a vocal spell giving you even more time to unload a Flurry of Blows on them. At level 6 you learn Shadow Step and can to teleport from one shadow to another within 60 feet as a bonus action. This is useful for stealthy infiltrations and escapes. Cloak of Shadows at level 11 lets you turn invisible in dim light or darkness, this only costs an action with no ki or cooldown involved so you can use this as much as you want! It’s an understatement to say that I’m a big fan of this subclass.

As for alternate subclasses, Way of the Drunken Master is a good option for escaping tight flanking formations with Drunken Technique evading opportunity attacks while giving you a bonus to speed. Way of the Kensei gives you a nice armor class buff in the form of Agile Parry at level 3, which is going to really improve your survivability given the relatively low AC of most low level monks. None of the other subclasses offer much for this specific goal before level 11.

A word to the wise: monks lack much in the way of survivability before they get early subclass features, this build assumes that you’re waiting until you have a decent amount of Ki points and HP before you go on your Wizard Hunting strategy. Until then, try to be at least a little cautious and avoid taking on enemies without your party at your side.

Although 5th edition is relatively simple, there are a lot of potential combinations to create lots of types of characters. If there was anything I missed let me know!

If you have a question or idea for a future Dungeon Blogging post be sure to send me an ask! ^^

Art: “Ojutai Exemplars” by Willian Murai

Gif: Code Geass, One-Punch Man, Legend of Korra

[gaiatheorist]

Improvising, and unpaid labour.

Half past four in the morning, I’m working around how to make a pie and a curry at the same time, with my ‘limited capacity’. I’m also factoring in energy costs, the impact of processes on end-products, and how to maximise my use of the ‘dead’ time between stages. My disabilities have an impact on my available functional hours, the hyper-vigilance that comes with my PTSD perversely helps me to portion-out my productivity. (Thanks, Mother, you didn’t teach me how to cook, or clean, or budget, but some other things you didn’t do mean that I can.)

Oliver Burkeman in this morning’s Guardian, is using the term ‘shadow work’. Most of us have always acknowledged that we have to do our own cooking, household chores and such. The category on my PIP award that scored the highest number of ‘points’ was ‘preparing and cooking food’. In reality, I actually find some of the other descriptor-categories more difficult, dangerous, and draining, but I was able to list more adaptations to my food-processing practices. If you don’t eat, you die. (Yes, that’s dramatic, it would take weeks to starve to death. If I miss too many meals, the blood sugar dip impacts on my background fatigue. I forget to turn the heating on, or take painkillers on schedule, and there’s that foggy-fugue state, where I’ll just stare at the phone until it stops ringing. I also sleep too much, not to escape the hunger-pangs, I don’t feel those, but because my body realises I have no energy, and effectively CTRL/ALT/DEL shuts me down.) 

‘Shadow work’ takes on a different meaning when there’s a disability to factor in. It’s not just the “I’ve put it in the bag, you beepy bastard!” annoyance at the self-scan checkout, or remembering dozens of passwords for online utility billing and such, it’s varying degrees of everything. 

Necessity is the mother of invention. I had a short discussion with an acquaintance earlier this week, he’s damaged his ankle, and has a cast and crutches for a minimum of nine weeks. This is the first week, and he’s finding a huge number of basic tasks difficult. I’ve actually offered to go to his house and help out during this initial adjustment phase. By week four, he’ll be managing everything much more easily, and by week six, he’ll quite possibly be finding uses for the crutches that the NHS wouldn’t like endorsing. It’s what people do, we improvise and adapt. That particular chap ‘only’ has nine weeks of this, but it’s still a useful analogy. Cast-and-crutches, or one arm in a sling, or your car off the road, after the initial “Well, this is an absolute disaster.”, you start to work around things. 

I’m looking at the idea of ‘shadow work’ from multiple angles. Head-on, the increase in automation of some previously-human employment will flood the labour market with the people who used to do a job that a machine does now, that’s increased competition for jobs, which will be a concern for me when I’m fit-for-work. Historically, I objected to part of my previous job becoming automated, which was at odds with my principles, and odd in that I’d streamlined another part of my job, to need as little human-input as possible. The future is computers, though, and it’s none of my business how that all-singing-all-dancing software actually works in practice. 

Recently, I’ve been entangled in doing shadow work for DWP, ‘Sleeping with the enemy’ to provide information that they already have, for their fancy new system. (Pride goes before a fall, but I’m probably using it more effectively than the staff paid to use it, they could have cut a significant number of person-hours if they’d followed my initial straightforward suggestion, instead of their convoluted one. They’re making part of my payment manually while I chase the ex to change the tenancy agreement, instead of a 30-second check with HMRC. They’re also making me ill, boo-hoo, poor me.) I saw a quote, I can’t remember the source, someone within DWP stating that claimants weren’t allocated any payments during the first week of a claim, because “The claim process won’t give people time to write a CV.” Furious, me? (I’m always furious, frontal lobe brain injury.) 

Despite peripheral issues in an imminent brain-scan, and providing evidence to student finance, I managed to fill in the forms, and find the additional evidence that was behind the ‘beware of the tiger’ tab. (Wasted trip to the cash-point, thanks to Kenneth on the help-line, who’d told me to take an advice-slip issued on the day, when what the system actually asked for was two months of bank statements.) Luckily for all concerned, the new work coach barely glanced at the bank statements, I was fully expecting the Spanish Inquisition on the plethora of Amazon purchases after the PIP money went into my account. Mostly disability-aids for ‘normal’ household tasks, and repairing/replacing things I hadn’t been able to do while I was living on fresh air and food bank parcels as it goes, but I’d overheard enough “You don’t NEED Sky Sports, cancel it.” interviews to know there was the potential for them to pick through the statement. 

I’d filled in the forms, secured the requested evidence, and moved onto the next task on the ‘to-do’ menu, because it was there. “Oh, you already have a CV uploaded, that’s great!” and “Did you write these? They’re excellent.” I’d done my work coach’s job for her, and I’d done it very, very well. (Arya Stark “You want to watch that one.” and such. That’s not a threat, it’s a reference to the conversation my previous work coach probably thought I couldn’t hear, “She will already have done it.”) *Liam Neeson voice over* “I am a nightmare.” It’s the paranoia that keeps me three steps ahead, I know I’ll have days when I’m less functional, so I ‘bank’ tasks before they’re due, to avoid missing deadlines, I did that before the disability, to mitigate against working hours lost to migraines, and ensure I never left colleagues in the s*it if I was absent. Now, with ‘please log in today’ emails pinging to my phone all over the place, that anxiety is compounded, my work coach has confirmed that my claim won’t be ‘stopped’ if I don’t respond same-day, and noted a mitigation/reasonable adjustment that I’m less functional later in the day, but there’s still that anxiety about missing a computer-generated ‘task.’ and incurring a sanction. My phone battery is wearing down faster because I’m repeatedly logging into my email, in case one has come through while I’ve been in a signal dead-spot. Shadow-work, the coach probably ‘should’ have made me an appointment in a month to review my Claimant Commitment, and another a month after that to write a CV. It’s done, she doesn’t ‘need’ to see me again until January, except she will, because I’ll have to produce a copy of the tenancy agreement once the ex sorts it out. 

That’s not the only shadow-work I’ve done for DWP. There was the pointless ‘Work Capability Assessment’, and the horrendous PIP process as well. Almost half of women taken through the WCA process have attempted suicide. I know I contemplated it once or twice, and that’s a major admission coming from me. (I don’t know why that statistic only focused on women, unless it’s because men are more likely to complete suicide, due to choosing different methods, that’s a different scenario, ending-all as opposed to reaching that point, and still having to live through it.) 70% of PIP applications that are initially declined are accepted at Tribunal. It took me 17 months, from applying for PIP this time, to having my ‘award’ granted at Tribunal, and it wasn’t 17 months of sitting on my behind just waiting for it to happen. There are agencies and individuals who can assist with WCA and PIP processes, but they’re stretched too thin to cover everyone who needs help, and I’m a bugger for prioritising the needs of others over my own. (I’m also something of a control freak, I’m very difficult to work with when I perceive others working inefficiently, my “Oh, you’re making a right mess of that, give it here!” streak is strong.) During the UC/WCA/PIP process, I was over-stretching myself, and I became very frayed as a result. I was over-stretched in part because I should have asked for help sooner, and in part because when I did ask for help, it was too stretched and fragmented to be of any use. A social prescribing case-worker, a social worker, a welfare rights advocate, and two ladies from Citizens Advice. Little old brain damaged me, sitting in the middle of this fragile web of support, asking one party not to duplicate work being done by another, to save them work-load, and trying not to bang my head on the desk and say “It would be easier if you did it *this* way.”   

Shadow-work. Providing the same medical evidence to two different parts of DWP. “Rolling six benefits into one”, my arse, the ‘disability’ part is still separate from the ‘unemployment’ part, I have an award of PIP for three years, which is completely distinct from the one year notice of ‘limited capacity for work’. Both departments have exactly the same evidence on me, I know, because I photocopied the files myself. (At 10p a page, I’ll have you know.) 

The PIP process, and the WCA strand not only involved a hell of a load of shadow-work in terms of admin and coordination from me, they also cast light, and, paradoxically, shadow on my improvisations. Back to the crutches/cast analogy, you look at where you are, and where you need to be, and you figure out whether you can get there. You fall over a bit, and adjust your methods to avoid falling over again. Unless you can’t get up, and the police end up breaking in when the neighbours report the flies, and the smell. There are hundreds, or thousands of things I can’t do ‘normally’ any more, so I’ve had to make my own ‘reasonable adjustments’. (Some of them are bizarre, some are profoundly maladaptive, but they get me through most days without major incident.) Those improvisations, the additional shadow-load that’s on me every single day of my life, for functions that used to be so simple they required no conscious processing are a Very Bad Thing when it comes to PIP and WCA ‘assessors.’ “You said you had difficulties with x, I have decided that you can x.” over and over again. I didn’t say I “couldn’t”, I said I have difficulties, but some bloke in an office somewhere can ‘decide that I can.’, and that’s supposed to be case-closed. At that point, I was supposed to ‘just get on with it’, to limp around my various disabilities as best I could, because a decision had been made that I wasn’t disabled enough. Physically, I can’t do that, but, more importantly in my twisted little head, emotionally, intellectually, and socially I can’t do it, without my deficits placing myself or others at risk of significant harm. If I have a bad fall, or a cognitive lapse, not only is my life at risk, but I could place others at risk when they have to fish me out of whatever mess I’ve landed myself in. I won’t do that.   

Another layer of shadow-work for DWP, painfully describing my improvisations in more detail. That part alone is enough to deter some people, it’s demeaning to have to explain, yet again, how you get on and off the toilet without assistance from another person. (Also the PIP system keeps the descriptor activities the same, but alters the qualifying thresholds without telling anyone. “Can you walk 200m?” has somehow morphed into some ambivalence about being able to move that distance, regardless of how long it takes, how difficult or painful it is, or what aids or adaptations are needed. They haven’t so much ‘shifted the goalposts’ as changed the game altogether.) I knew from the outset that the ‘computer says no’ would be the outcome, that the ‘assessors’ wouldn’t see the additional adjustments I have to make every day, they’d just bounce back that I ‘can’ complete all of the descriptors. Not repeatedly, reliably, or within a reasonable time-frame, though, and only with a massive degree of improvisation, which is physically and mentally draining, compounding the fatigue-element of my condition. (Shuddering at the thought of ‘home help’ assisting me with washing, dressing, or toileting, but that’s the PTSD, and PIP claims only deal with your most-recent condition, not anything underlying that compounds it, bizarre system.) 

You’re damned if you do improvise, because DWP/PIP will tick the ‘can’ box, the ‘fit for work’ box. You’re damned if you don’t, because some faceless decision-maker will decide you’re just not trying hard enough. What about the people that can’t improvise? The ones who are already stretched to the limits of their functional capacity? Have they tried just not being disabled/depressed/dependent? 

“Making work pay.” is a cute tag-line, but underneath it is the reality that vulnerable and disabled people are being churned through a workhouse that doesn’t work. We’re inputting our own admin. I have some cognitive issues, but nowhere near as high a level as some people. I have some visual issues, and my left hand doesn’t work properly, reading and typing are time-intensive, and painful, but I ‘can’ do it for a narrow window, given plenty of screen-breaks, some people can’t. It’s not hyperbole at all to say that this government has blood on its hands, it does, and it will have more to come while these systems are in place. People will fall through the gaps in the system, which will suit statistics, because ‘unemployment figures are falling.’ People. People are falling, into a shadow-realm of not being counted as ‘anything’. Some people’s improvisations to deal with that will be brutal. Domestic violence will increase when the ‘dole money’ suddenly stops going into bank accounts. Street robberies and burglaries will increase when people run out of their own things to sell. Referrals to social care and food banks will continue to increase. Evictions will increase, placing additional strain on local authorities to provide emergency accommodation, and I seriously doubt that people in emergency accommodation will be able to satisfy the conditionality of checking their online account for ‘to-do’ actions. Two-for-one sanctions there, I wonder if there are bonuses for that? 

This isn’t working, I genuinely don’t believe it was ever meant to, I think that the intent all along was for it to be so complex and intensive that people would just opt-out. All well and good if that opt-out is into gainful employment, some of the opt-outs will be of a more permanent nature, and the government will still have to allocate resources to deal with the very long shadows this shadow-work will create.