#AP-NORC Poll

[scottguy]

The evidence is all around us, and there's SO MUCH... everything climate scientists have predicted (more powerful hurricanes, floods, longer droughts, huge wildfires) is happening every single week.

Kathleen Maxwell has lived in Phoenix for more than 20 years, but this summer was the first time she felt fear, as daily high temperatures soared to 110 degrees or hotter and kept it up for a record-shattering 31 consecutive days.

“It’s always been really hot here, but nothing like this past summer,” said Maxwell, 50, who last week opened her windows for the first time since March and walked her dog outdoors for the first time since May. “I was seriously scared. Like, what if this doesn’t end and this is how it’s going to be?”

Maxwell blames climate change, and she’s not alone.

[follow-up-news]

As President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general, Pam Bondi, prepares for questioning from senators on Wednesday, only about 2 in 10 U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” confident that the Department of Justice will act in a fair and nonpartisan manner during his second term, a poll finds. Their faith in the neutrality of the FBI is similarly low, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, which was conducted before the beginning of the confirmation hearings for Trump’s Cabinet. Even some Republicans express uncertainty in the Justice Department and the FBI, suggesting that even once they take office, Trump and his allies may find it challenging to restore trust in the law enforcement agencies they’ve heavily criticized.

[sayruq]

Half of U.S. adults say Israel’s 15-week-old military campaign in Gaza has “gone too far,” a finding driven mainly by growing disapproval among Republicans and political independents, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Broadly, the poll shows support for Israel and the Biden administration’s handling of the situation ebbing slightly further across the board. The poll shows 31% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the conflict, including just 46% of Democrats. That’s as an earlier spike in support for Israel following the Hamas attacks Oct. 7 sags.

[probablyasocialecologist]

In the context of what we’ve learned from our investigations into opt-in polls, we took particular notice of a recent online opt-in survey that had a startling finding about Holocaust denial among young Americans. The survey, fielded in December 2023, reported that 20% of U.S. adults under 30 agree with the statement, “The Holocaust is a myth.” This alarming finding received widespread attention from the news media and on social networks. From a survey science perspective, the finding deserved a closer look. It raised both of the red flags in the research literature about bogus respondents: It focused on a rare attitude (Holocaust denial), and it involved a subgroup frequently “infiltrated” by bogus respondents (young adults). Other questions asked in that December opt-in poll also pointed to a need for scrutiny. In the same poll, about half of adults under 30 (48%) expressed opposition to legal abortion. This result is dramatically at odds with rigorous polling from multiple survey organizations that consistently finds the rate of opposition among young adults to be much lower. In an April 2023 Pew Research Center survey, for instance, 26% of U.S. adults under 30 said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. This was 13 points lower than the share among older Americans (39%). Our estimate for young adults was similar to ones from other, more recent probability-based surveys, such as an AP-NORC survey from June 2023 (27%) and a KFF survey from November 2023 (28%). We attempted to replicate the opt-in poll’s findings in our own survey, fielded in mid-January 2024 on Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel. Unlike the December opt-in survey, our survey panel is recruited by mail – rather than online – using probability-based sampling. And in fact, our findings were quite different. Rather than 20%, we found that 3% of adults under 30 agree with the statement “The Holocaust is a myth.” (This percentage is the same for every other age group as well.) Had this been the original result, it is unlikely that it would have generated the same kind of media attention on one of the most sensitive possible topics. Likewise, our survey found substantial differences from the December poll on support for legal abortion. In the opt-in survey, roughly half of young adults (48%) said abortion should always be illegal or should only be legal in special circumstances, such as when the life of the mother is in danger. In our survey, 23% said so. These differences in estimates for young adults are what we would expect to see – based on past studies – if there were a large number of bogus respondents in the opt-in poll claiming to be under the age of 30. These respondents likely were not answering the questions based on their true opinions. The takeaway from our recent survey experiment is not that Holocaust denial in the United States is nonexistent or that younger and older Americans all have the same opinions when it comes to antisemitism or the Middle East. For example, our survey experiment found that young adults in the U.S. are less likely than older ones to say the state of Israel has the right to exist. This is broadly consistent with other rigorous polling showing that young people are somewhat less supportive of Israel – and more supportive of Palestinians – than older Americans. Rather, the takeaway is that reporting on complex and sensitive matters such as these requires the use of rigorous survey methods to avoid inadvertently misleading the public, particularly when studying the attitudes of young people.

[beardedmrbean]

In an era of 24/7 news cycles and social media saturation, most Americans are stepping back from political news to combat fatigue and information overload.


According to a brand-new nationwide poll by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 65 percent of adults feel the need to limit their consumption of government and political news.


This sentiment crosses party lines, but Democrats are slightly more likely than Republicans to feel overwhelmed (72 percent vs. 59 percent).

Additionally, 50 percent of respondents cited the need to cut back on news about overseas conflicts.


Around four in 10 adults feel similarly about coverage of the economy and climate change. 

Notably, Republicans are more inclined than Democrats to limit climate change news (48 percent vs. 37 percent).


Conducted from Thursday, Dec. 5, to Monday, Dec. 9, the poll surveyed 1,251 adults through online and telephone interviews. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

The poll highlights a growing disinterest in political discourse outside traditional news settings. 

While 43 percent support small businesses expressing political opinions, only about a quarter approve of such expressions from celebrities, professional athletes, or large companies.


Democrats are more receptive than Republicans to political statements from celebrities and corporations.


The survey also shows bipartisan support for small businesses engaging in political speech, reflecting where Americans believe political discussions belong. ________________________________

I'm utterly shocked I tell you

[progressivepower]

Many Americans Doubt Trump Will Be Able To Lower Prices In His First Year, An AP-NORC Poll Shows https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ap-poll-trump-expectations_n_6789dc9ee4b0b60c1345ddc4?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=tumblr

[mariacallous]

WASHINGTON (AP) — Many U.S. adults are on board with the idea of beefing up security at the southern border and undertaking some targeted deportations, according to a poll. But as President Donald Trump begins his second term with a series of sweeping executive orders on immigration, the findings suggest his actions may quickly push the country beyond the limited consensus that exists on the issue.

There is a clear desire for some kind of action on U.S.-Mexico border security, according to the survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Half of U.S. adults think increasing security at the border should be a high priority for the federal government, according to the poll, and about 3 in 10 say it should be a moderate priority. Just 2 in 10, roughly, consider it a low priority.

The vast majority of U.S. adults favor deporting immigrants convicted of violent crimes, and the Trump administration’s deportation efforts may begin there. But Trump’s initial executive orders have gone far beyond that — including efforts to keep asylum-seekers in Mexico and end automatic citizenship.

And Trump, a Republican, is continuing to signal an aggressive and likely divisive approach, with promises to deport millions of people who entered the country illegally while declaring a “national emergency at our southern border.” About 4 in 10 American adults support deporting all immigrants living in the U.S. illegally, and a similar share are opposed.

Most Americans think local police should cooperate with federal immigration authorities on deportations in at least some cases, but implementation could quickly become unpopular. On Tuesday, the Trump administration threw out policies limiting arrests of migrants in sensitive places like schools and churches, even though a shift to such arrests would be largely unpopular.

Some support for more immigration enforcement

Immigration was a key issue in the 2024 election, and the poll indicates that it’s still a high priority for many Americans as Trump takes office.

Illegal border crossings soared under Trump’s predecessor, President Joe Biden, with border arrests from Mexico reaching a record-high of 250,000 in December 2023. Despite Trump’s claims of an immigrant invasion, crossings have plunged since then, amid increased Mexican enforcement and the Democratic Biden administration’s June 2024 order that dramatically limited asylum claims at the border.

But memories of those rising numbers, and the chaos that ensued when migrants were bused by Republican governors to northern cities, may have helped shape American attitudes. The survey found that about half of Americans think the government is spending “too little” on border security, and the vast majority favor deportations of people who have been convicted of violent crimes.

“I want to see more people coming here legally,” said Manuel Morales, a 60-year-old Democrat who lives near Moline, Illinois. He first came to America by crossing the border illegally from Mexico nearly 40 years ago. “But at the same time, I’m against all these caravans coming (to the border), with thousands and thousands of people at one time,” said Morales, a technician for an internet provider.

He’s deeply sympathetic to migrants who come to the U.S. to escape repression or poverty and feels that too many Americans don’t understand the yearslong efforts required to enter the U.S. legally. Yet, he also believes the number of migrants has simply become too great in the past few years.

“We cannot just receive everybody into this county,” he said.

Trump’s most sweeping plans are less popular

Trump rarely gives specifics when he calls for mass deportations, but the survey indicates many Americans are conflicted about mass roundups of people living in the U.S. illegally.

Removing immigrants who are in the country illegally and have not committed a violent crime is highly divisive, with only about 4 in 10 U.S. adults in support and slightly more than 4 in 10 opposed.

And relatively few Americans, about 3 in 10, somewhat or strongly favor changing the Constitution so children born in the U.S. are not automatically granted citizenship if their parents are in the country illegally. About 2 in 10 are neutral, and about half are somewhat or strongly opposed.

Doug DeVore is a 57-year-old Republican living in southern Indiana who believes that immigration “went haywire during the Biden administration.”

But the idea of large-scale operations to check people’s immigration status makes him uncomfortable.

“I probably wouldn’t be 100% against it,” he said. “But there’s that fine line” between gathering information on people living in the U.S. illegally and automatically deporting them, added DeVore, who works in a candy factory.

Local cooperation with immigration authorities is popular — but not arrests in schools or churches

As the Trump administration prepares to attack sanctuary jurisdictions that limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities, the poll finds that the vast majority of U.S. adults think police in their community should cooperate with federal immigration authorities to deport people who are in the country illegally in at least some cases.

Only about 1 in 10 Americans say the local police should never cooperate with federal law enforcement on these deportations.

There’s a divide, though, on whether cooperation should happen across the board or if it should happen only sometimes. About two-thirds of Republicans say local police should always cooperate, a view that only about one-quarter of Democrats share. But relatively few Democrats say local police should never cooperate and most, about two-thirds, say cooperation should happen in some cases.

And a wave of arrests could quickly spark a backlash, depending on how they happen. U.S. immigration agents have long abided by guidance that deters arresting parents or students at schools and other sensitive places, but some of Trump’s rhetoric has raised questions about whether those policies will persist.

The poll finds that a shift toward arresting people in the country illegally at places like churches and schools would be highly unpopular. Only about 2 in 10 U.S. adults somewhat or strongly favor arresting children who are in the country illegally while they are at school, and a similar share support arresting people who are in the country illegally while they are at church. Solid majorities, about 6 in 10, oppose these kinds of arrests.

Even Republicans aren’t fully on board — less than half favor arrests of children in schools or people at church.

[cute-animals-serious-thoughts]

AP headline: Majority of Democrats think Kamala Harris would make a good president, AP-NORC poll shows

I have great news for those voters then! If Biden ever actually is too old to do the job, guess who immediately takes over!!

[religion-is-a-mental-illness]

By: Noah Bressner

Published: Dec 27, 2024

Americans want to hear less about politics from public figures — and Republicans really don't want to hear it, according to a new AP-NORC poll.

Why it matters: After an election season where endorsements from celebrities frequently made news, the survey found Americans are more likely to disapprove than approve of celebrities, big companies and athletes sounding off on politics.

By the numbers:

Just 39% of Democrats approve of celebrities piping up on political issues — but only 11% of Republicans and 12% of independents (24% for the whole sample).

Same with pro athletes: 39% of Democrats approve of them speaking up — but just 16% of Republicans and 15% of independents (26% overall).

Small business is a big exception: 43% of people are happy to hear from entrepreneurs. That breaks down to 49% of Dems, 41% of Republicans and 33% of independents.

--

By: Brendan Rascius

Published: Dec 30, 2024

Before the 2024 election, a slew of A-list celebrities and star athletes publicly endorsed either Vice President Kamala Harris or President-elect Donald Trump.

Among them were Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, Bruce Springsteen, Brett Favre, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Jason Aldean and Dennis Quaid.

It turns out, few Americans are keen on the idea of them wading into the realm of politics, according to recent polling.

In an Associated Press-NORC poll, just 24% of respondents said they approved of celebrities “speaking out on political issues,” while 26% said they approved of professional athletes discussing politics.

Meanwhile, larger shares of respondents disapproved of celebrities and athletes weighing in on political issues — 39% and 36%, respectively.

About the same share, 37%, said they neither approved or disapproved.

Conducted between Dec. 5 and 9, the poll sampled 1,251 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

The poll also asked respondents for their thoughts on businesses making statements on political issues. Here, opinions differed significantly depending on the size of the businesses.

When it came to large corporations, just 25% said they approved of them speaking out on politics, while a plurality, 40%, said they disapproved. Meanwhile, 35% said they neither approved nor disapproved.

In contrast, a plurality of respondents, 43%, said they approved of small businesses weighing in on political issues, while just 20% said they disapproved. Thirty-six percent said they were neither in support or opposed to this.

The poll comes one month after Trump defeated Harris in the presidential election, sending him back to the White House for a nonconsecutive second term.

It also comes amid a long-running debate on the significance of celebrity endorsements.

Some election experts believe endorsements from highly influential celebrities, like Swift, can have an impact on voters, according to previous reporting from McClatchy News.

But others are of the opinion that endorsements in general have lost their importance.

“I think people are just a little more cynical now,” Richard Groper, a politics professor at California State University at Los Angeles, said.

==

"Celebrities" and pro athletes don't live in the real world. Taylor Swift and Beyoncé don't have real problems. They don't worry about money or layoffs or crime from their gated mansions. Which is fine - we don't be grudge them that and we'd do it too if we could.

But they don't get to lecture us about the world they don't actually live in. They're glorified shaved performing monkeys. Their one and only job is to entertain us, not lecture us.

So, shut the fuck up and dance.

[scottguy]

Of course, all Trump ever does is whine!

A new poll found that more registered voters believe that Vice President Kamala Harris is “tough enough” to be President than former President Donald Trump.

AP/NORC published its latest poll on Thursday and asked 2,028 adults (1,771 who are registered to vote) from all 50 states and Washington, DC a variety of questions about both presidential candidates. Questions were asked online and over the phone between the dates of September 12-16, 2024 and conducted in either Spanish or English. The margin of error was +/-3.1 percentage points.

Overall, Harris scored more positively than Trump on several questions:

When asked: “Do you think each of the following people would make a good president?” 44 percent overall said Harris would, 36 percent said Trump would.

When asked who would be tough enough to be president, 59 percent said Harris would (43 percent said “extremely/very well” and 16 percent said “somewhat well”). On this question, Trump trailed at 57 percent overall (42 percent said “extremely/very well” and 15 percent said “somewhat well”).

Interviewees were also asked who would change the country for the better — 55 percent said Harris, 46 percent said Trump. They also said Harris was more likely to “fight for people like you” (56 percent) than Trump (45 percent).

[follow-up-news]

A solid majority of Americans oppose a federal abortion ban as a rising number support access to abortions for any reason, a new poll finds, highlighting a politically perilous situation for candidates who oppose abortion rights as the November election draws closer. Around 6 in 10 Americans think their state should generally allow a person to obtain a legal abortion if they don’t want to be pregnant for any reason, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That’s an increase from June 2021, a year before the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to the procedure, when about half of Americans thought legal abortion should be possible under these circumstances. Americans are largely opposed to the strict bans that have taken effect in Republican-controlled states since the high court’s ruling two years ago. Full bans, with limited exceptions, have gone into effect in 14 GOP-led states, while three other states prohibit abortion after about six weeks of pregnancy, before women often realize they’re pregnant. They are also overwhelmingly against national abortion bans and restrictions. And views toward abortion — which have long been relatively stable — may be getting more permissive.

[animeengineer]

It’s amazing how powerful the right-wing propaganda machine is these days.

[head-post]

Americans exhausted with political news

About two-thirds of US adults say they have recently felt the need to limit their media consumption about politics due to overload, AP News reports.

According to the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, a smaller percentage of Americans limit their consumption of news about foreign conflicts, the economy or climate change. This demonstrates the audience’s fundamental reluctance to see political news.

The poll also found that more Democrats than Republicans are steering away from the news. About 7 in 10 Democrats claim they abstain from political news. Meanwhile, about 6 in 10 Republicans say they have also felt the need to take a break from politics.

MSNBC’s primetime audience averaged 620,000 after election night through 13 December, down 54% from its pre-election audience this year, according to Nielsen data. Comparably, CNN’s average viewership of 405,000 was down 45%.

MSNBC’s decline is steeper than it was in 2016, making it doubtful whether Trump’s opponents will want to be as active as they were during his first term. People are also disconnecting from cable TV, with the trend only rising.

The poll shows that Americans want less talk about politics from public figures in general. After an election season where endorsements from celebrities like Taylor Swift made headlines, the poll shows that Americans disapprove rather than approve of celebrities, big companies and professional athletes talking about politics.

The survey of 1,251 adults was conducted 5-9 December 2024 using a sample drawn from the probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel. The margin of sampling error for adults stands at about 3.7 percentage points.

Read more HERE

[beardedmrbean]

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans view college campuses as far friendlier to liberals than to conservatives when it comes to free speech, with adults across the political spectrum seeing less tolerance for those on the right, according to a new poll.

Overall, 47% of adults say liberals have “a lot” of freedom to express their views on college campuses, while just 20% said the same of conservatives, according to polling from the The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and the University of Chicago Forum for Free Inquiry and Expression.

Republicans perceive a stronger bias on campuses against conservatives, but Democrats see a difference too — about 4 in 10 Democrats say liberals can speak their minds freely on campuses, while about 3 in 10 Democrats say conservatives can do so.

“If you’re a Republican or lean Republican, you’re unabashedly wrong, they shut you down,” said Rhonda Baker, 60, of Goldsboro, North Carolina, who voted for former President Donald Trump and has a son in college. “If they hold a rally, it’s: ‘The MAGA’s coming through.’ It’s: ‘The KKK is coming through.’”

Debates over First Amendment rights have occasionally flared on college campuses in recent years, with conflicts arising over guest speakers who express polarizing views, often from the political right.

Stanford University became a flashpoint this year when students shouted down a conservative judge who was invited to speak. More recently, a conservative Princeton University professor was drowned out while discussing free speech at Washington College, a small school in Maryland.

At the same time, Republican lawmakers in dozens of states have proposed bills aiming to limit public colleges from teaching topics considered divisive or liberal. Just 30% of Americans say states should be able to restrict what professors at state universities teach, the poll found, though support was higher among Republicans.

Overall, Republicans see a clear double standard on college campuses. Just 9% said conservatives can speak their minds, while 58% said liberals have that freedom, according to the polling. They were also slightly less likely than Americans overall to see campuses as respectful and inclusive places for conservatives.

Chris Gauvin, a Republican who has done construction work on campuses, believes conservative voices are stifled. While working at Yale University, he was once stopped by pro-LGBTQ+ activists who asked for his opinion, he said.

“They asked me how I felt, so I figured I’d tell them. I spoke in a normal tone, I didn’t get excited or upset,” said Gauvin, 58, of Manchester, Connecticut. “But it proceeded with 18 to 20 people who were suddenly very irritated and agitated. It just exploded.”

He took a lesson from the experience: “I learned to be very quiet there.”

Republicans in Congress have raised alarms, with a recent House report warning of “the long-standing and pervasive degradation of First Amendment rights” at U.S. colleges. Some in the GOP have called for federal legislation requiring colleges to protect free speech and punish those who infringe on others’ rights.

Nicholas Fleisher, who chairs an academic freedom committee for the American Association of University Professors, said public perception is skewed by the infrequent cases when protesters go too far.

“The reality is that there’s free speech for everyone on college campuses,” said Fleisher, a linguistics professor at the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee. “In conversations within classrooms, people are free to speak their minds. And they do.”

Officials at PEN America, a free speech group, say most students welcome diverse views. But as the nation has become more politically divided, so have college campuses, said Kristen Shahverdian, senior manager for education at PEN.

“There’s this polarization that just continues to grow and build across our country, and colleges and universities are a part of that ecosystem,” she said.

Morgan Ashford, a Democrat in an online graduate program at Troy University in Alabama, said she thinks people can express themselves freely on campus regardless of politics or skin color. Still, she sees a lack of tolerance for the LGBTQ+ community in her Republican state where the governor has passed anti-LGBTQ legislation.

“I think there have to be guidelines” around hate speech, said Ashford. “Because some people can go overboard.”

When it comes to protesting speakers, most Americans say it should be peaceful. About 8 in 10 say it’s acceptable to engage in peaceful, non-disruptive protest at a campus event, while just 15% say it’s OK to prevent a speaker from communicating with the audience, the poll found.

“If they don’t like it, they can get up and walk out,” said Linda Woodward, 71, a Democrat in Hot Springs Village, Arkansas.

Mike Darlington, a real estate appraiser who votes Republican, said drowning out speakers violates the virtues of a free society.

“It seems to me a very, very selfish attitude that makes students think, ‘If you don’t think the way I do, then your thoughts are unacceptable,’” said Darlington, 58, of Chesterfield County, Virginia.

The protest at Stanford was one of six campus speeches across the U.S. that ended in significant disruption this year, with another 11 last year, according to a database by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, a free speech group.

Those cases, while troubling, are one symptom of a broader problem, said Ilya Shapiro, a conservative legal scholar who was shouted down during a speech last year at the University of California’s law school. He says colleges have drifted away from the classic ideal of academia as a place for free inquiry.

An even bigger problem than speakers being disrupted by protesters is “students and faculty feeling that they can’t be open in their views. They can’t even discuss certain subjects,” said Shapiro, director of constitutional studies at the Manhattan Institute think tank.

About three in five Americans (62%) say that a major purpose of higher education is to support the free exchange and debate of different ideas and values. Even more U.S. adults say college’s main purpose is to teach students specific skills (82%), advance knowledge and ideas (78%) or teach students to be critical thinkers (76%). Also, 66% said a major purpose is to create a respectful and inclusive learning environment.

“I believe it should be solely to prepare you to enter the workforce,” said Gene VanZandt, 40, a Republican who works in shipbuilding in Hampton, Virginia. “I think our colleges have gone too far off the path of what their function was.”

The poll finds that majorities of Americans think students and professors, respectively, should not be allowed to express racist, sexist or anti-LGBTQ views on campus, with slightly more Republicans than Democrats saying those types of views should be allowed. There was slightly more tolerance for students expressing those views than for professors.

About 4 in 10 said students should be permitted to invite academic speakers accused of using offensive speech, with 55% saying they should not. There was a similar split when asked whether professors should be allowed to invite those speakers.

Darlington believes students and professors should be able to discuss controversial topics, but there are limits.

“Over-the-top, overtly racist, hateful stuff — no. You shouldn’t be allowed to do that freely,” he said.

___

The poll of 1,095 adults was conducted Sept. 7-11, 2023, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4 percentage points.