#90% of the finances? Me. The one with no job who will wind back up with a family/in a state that would rather see me dead than who I am

[thenerdcommander]

We're less than a week away from moving day and not even finished packing or cleaning yet I'm so depressed and burnt out from doing Tasks and being anxious that I was barely able to warm a frozen pizza

[bxebxee]

Why Cinderella Is Important To Me, an Informal Essay

There are some feminists who are vocal opponents of Disney princesses like Cinderella. Before I really go into why Cinderella is important (to me), I think it’s important to recognize that without the work of the feminists of the 60s/70s/80s/90s...etc., the world would truly be a worse-off place, and I am FOREVER grateful for all of their contributions. The world is not perfect, and neither is feminism. Older feminists got (and continue to get) a lot of important, good things right, but some of their views concerning Disney princesses in general rubs me the wrong way. (The article linked is from 2006, so take it with a grain of salt. I will reference this later.) 

I think there are some key generational differences in feminist culture of women who were born in the 70s versus women who were born in the 80s, and certainly for all women moving forward. When we are born into a society with a set standard (whatever that standard may be), we respond in a different way, and our priorities/activist attention will be centered on other issues. I recommend that everyone read this really good take by Anne Marie Slaughter concerning women, the workplace, and living. This article does a better job at explaining this than I could ever possibly hope to do. 

I don’t like to block-quote, but this is POWERFUL stuff from Anne Marie Slaughter: 

I owe my own freedoms and opportunities to the pioneering generation of women ahead of me—the women now in their 60s, 70s, and 80s who faced overt sexism of a kind I see only when watching Mad Men, and who knew that the only way to make it as a woman was to act exactly like a man. To admit to, much less act on, maternal longings would have been fatal to their careers. But precisely thanks to their progress, a different kind of conversation is now possible. It is time for women in leadership positions to recognize that although we are still blazing trails and breaking ceilings, many of us are also reinforcing a falsehood: that “having it all” is, more than anything, a function of personal determination.

Okay, now to the fun stuff. 

Let me summarize Cinderella:

Cinderella (Cindy) is a rich, privileged girl who lives with her single-parent father because her mother died when she was just a baby. Cindy lives in a de-facto castle with a Pony. Her dad is hella rich, and since he adores her, she’s probably the sole beneficiary. 

The dad feels guilty that Cindy doesn’t have a mom and then unilaterally decides to marry some woman for the sole purpose of having her act as a mother to his kid. Note: in the Disney movie, it’s expressly stated that Cindy’s dad went out looking for a mom replacement - nothing more. 

The dad dies. Cindyis then “abused and humiliated” by the stepmother and made into a servant in her own home. 

Cindy’s room is in the servant quarters. She hangs out with rodents and birds and basically lives at the whim of her terrible stepfamily. She has no life and does menial labor for people who make her life miserable. 

But One Day, there’s this Ball she wants to go to, and her stepmom is terrible human being who taunts Cindy by saying she can go if she has a dress. Note: this serves two purposes - (1) it’s a way of saying no; and (2) it’s a way of rubbing it in Cindy’s face that she has nothing and is nothing. 

Big theme that’s always repeated and is relatively true is that Cindy stays “kind and good” throughout all of this and perseveres through sheer “goodness” of her heart. Because she’s “kind and good” to the animals, they make a dress for her using the scraps luxury goods lying around the house. 

The stepsisters assault Cindy and rip the dress from her body. This is violent and humiliating, and tbh you should be locked up if you pull this shit! Anyway, they stepfam leave for the ball after twisting the knife and Cindy is miserable and probably at the Brink. 

Important: The Fairy Godmother makes an appearance and saves the day. I want to stress that it is not the prince who ends up saving Cinderella, but rather the Fairy Godmother. Without FairyG, you don’t have a happy ending. 

The Fairy Godmother is the one who presents the magical Deus Ex Machina for Cindy to get her life for one night. But FairyG knows that Cindy is a hot girl who’s been thoroughly sheltered for her entire life, so she gives a curfew of midnight. “The magic will wear out” is such bullshit tbh like just say you don’t want Cindy out too late. 

Cindy loses 1 slipper in her rush to get home, and that sets off the whole Find Cindy arc of the last 1/3 of the movie. 

The prince is so fucking into Cindy omg. He wants to wife her. 

Eventually, the search crew gets to Cindy’s place, but stepmom catches wind that Cindy might be mystery gal. Cindy gets locked in the tower but she breaks free due to the help from her animal friends!!

Stepmom trips the guy holding the glass slipper, causing the slipper to SHATTER so that Cindy doesn’t put it on. But stepmom is a cuck who doesn’t know Cindy is a real bitch with a backup plan. 

Cindy pulls out the spare shoe she has, puts it on, and we montage to the marriage scene and happily ever after. 

The supposed message that is distasteful to a lot of people is that Cinderella is a girl who doesn’t have a dream outside of marriage and aspires to being someone’s wife as her ultimate goal. She escapes one servitude for another. In THIS article, which I linked above as well, the author says this about Cinderella when she talks to her daughter: “It’s just, honey, Cinderella doesn’t really do anything.” 

Cinderella’s "Passivity” Explained: 

Now I agree with a lot of things in that article, but I am purposely pulling out that one quote because it Pisses Me Off when people categorize Cinderella as some jobless shut-in. 

Cinderella wasn’t like this by choice. Her dad died when she was too young to be independent, and her new guardian was a terrible human being who basically kept her around for inheritance purposes. Cindy was not financially independent, nor did she have any power. Let’s really consider her background!!! If her father thought that she “needed” a mother, he probably never taught her anything about finances or her rights (assuming we’re in an era where those existed). Like... I can see he loved her very much, but what it’s a very 1950s thought to assume your kid needs both a mother and a father. (Cinderella was released in 1950 LOL.) 

So Cinderella’s real problems started because her dad made incredibly poor choices related to co-parenting. And for all of the stepmother’s faults, maybe it pissed her off that she was only being wifed because this guy wanted her to act as a glorified nanny for his brat. The stepmother is still terrible though, no excuses. Anyway, it’s evident that Cinderella’s childhood and adolescence were not happy times, and she had very little time to adjust to this new world order. 

x

“Good and Kind” is Misleading: 

Cinderella is part of the union of Nice Princesses, the OG3 of Snow White, Cinderella, and Aurora. You have feisty Disney princesses like Ariel, Jasmine, Rapunzel, Merida...etc., and then you have girls like Cindy. 

One of the main themes of Cinderella that they push really hard is that she’s a good person. She’s kind, hopeful, and doesn’t let the meanness of the world change her. Her purity is related to purity of spirit, where the negative circumstances around her do not turn her heart towards bitterness. Check out this song for the proof. 

I agree that she’s a good person, but throughout the movie you’ll see a lot of places where Cindy gets snarky and shady!!! I mean the FACES that she makes when her stepmother gives her ridiculous chores: 

(You can watch the full vid here. Also, can you believe how hilarious that this face appears right at 4:20? LOL) 

“Good and Kind” doesn’t mean she’s not sneaky when she wants to be. There’s this one scene where Cinderella drops a tray of tea in “surprise” at the news that the duke is going around testing feet sizes of all the maidens. Now, I’ve seen Cinderella balance three loads of laundry while avoiding a nasty cat who always tries to trip her. She didn’t look like she dropped it in surprise because she HARDLY jumped. I guess you can say maybe she was so out of it and surprised that nothing else registered, but my take is that she dropped it on purpose to eavesdrop on the stepmother. 

Cinderella’s version of sneaky is also kinda funny too because when she escapes the tower, she has that other glass slipper with her. A Real Bitch Is Always Prepared!!!! And she had the nerve to chirp “if it would help~~~”

I love her. 

x

Cindy is Not Perfect:

The one thing I will say about Cindy is that she is Naive. She is Naive as HELL. She does try to believe in the goodness of all people/animals, and she gives people the benefit of the doubt. But she’s terrible at hiding her emotions when she’s happy. She’s transparent as Glass whenever she’s in a good mood, and she gets Radiant. The stepmother cannot stand this, and it kills her to see Cinderella happy. 

The only reason Cinderella gets locked in the tower right before the duke shows up with the slipper she left behind is because the stepmother notices Immediately when Cinderella is happy. The stepmom has this sixth sense for it, and she puts together two and two to figure out that Cinderella was the Mystery Gal from the ball. 

x

The Prince is Irrelevant:

People also dislike OG3 princess movies because the prince “saves” the princess for her happily ever after. I want to stress that it was the Fairy Godmother who was the mvp in all of this. The prince is an Afterthought, and he was a happy accident for Cinderella, but the person who made it all possible was the Fairy Godmother. 

I will always say that Cinderella was craving a life, not a man.

But back up for a second because frankly... Cinderella getting with the fucking prince is Peak Revenge on her terrible stepfam. I mean you have Cinderella who has lived the better part of her life as an abused servant-orphan suddenly getting married to the prince, who will probably have political and financial power over these terrible people. Also, can the stepfam do any better than the royal family? Probably not. Even at the ending, Cinderella flat out kisses the king’s head as if he was a child. The duke is probably pissing himself over keeping her happy because she basically saved his life by pulling out that the shoe letting him complete his task successfully. She has EVERYONE in the royal family eating out of her palm.

x

Conclusions: 

On a personal level, I feel emotional fondness for Cinderella because she hangs in there. She endured a lot of bullshit, but she eventually got out. That’s the happy ending that gives me hope. Marriage/finding a man is not what drives satisfaction of that movie. We cheer because Cinderella gets to leave her abusers behind in the dust while living her best life. 

SHE LIVED HAPPILY EVER AFTER! 

The End!

[barryauricht1-blog]

Factoring Canada - Ways To Finance Your Canadian Business

I hear people say all period that the most significant thing to teach kids about traders the power of compound interest. But really, that's not the true picture of why investing works and why our money grows over time. It isn't actually always compound interest that creates wealth.at least not for many traders. It's actually 'compound growth' that causes money to grow most often. Let me explain. Another way of getting quick cash for your online business to want credit cards. Use credit cards as being a last resort because the interest rate can make without caution. You think you are only paying 9% but 2 statements later view it has jumped to 19%. Call your credit card providers before you use their cards and ask for a lower stuck in rate. Be proactive, don't wait till you have charged stuff to as well as get a better rate. When they won't play ball with you, use another little. There are hundreds of credit cards available, search for the terms that match your business needs best. We require to first discuss how factoring works. The straightforward answer is basically that you sell an invoice several factoring company. In exchange, the factoring company gives you a discounted amount belonging to the face value of the expenses. For instance, let's assume I sell a $10,000 invoice payable in 30 days to the blue accounts receivable factoring company. Blue will supply $9,700 inturn for it. The advantage of this approach is I receive money now to help my business with cash flow. The disadvantage is I am giving up some of my profit in the form of the factoring company commission rate. Do your clients take 30, 60 also 90 days to pay their statements? Extending payment terms, as always be commonly known, is normal in the corporate world. Customers demand that be given credit, meanwhile you still have to pay for your company's ongoing expenses. And can factoring work? Well, it simpler than you believe. As soon as you could have completed a job, you submit an invoice for ones client and send a duplicate to the accounts receivable factoring company. The factoring company will advance just substantial involving your invoice, usually just a day. Once your client pays the invoice, the transaction is settled. The transaction is easy. You sell your invoice/freight bill to the accounts receivable factoring company, who gives an initial advance of 90% on the invoice. This advance could be higher a number of circumstances. You receive the final advance of 10% (less the factoring fee) when your client actually pays the invoice. If this describes you, then if you are a good candidate for either factoring or purchase order backing. As opposed to bank loans, these two financial alternatives are to be able to qualify with regard to. The biggest requirement what is factoring you do business with strong commercial customers, regarding big companies or brand new. If this describes you, then it may a good candidate for either factoring or purchase order higher education. As opposed to bank loans, these two financial alternatives are simple qualify towards. The biggest requirement is start selling it business with strong commercial customers, while big companies or federal government. If you learn tips on how to build a wind turbine, either for a pre-fab kit, or merely going in order to some hardware store, buying the materials, and making it from scratch, you in order to factoring yourself too much of sunshine crisis - at least as far as your goes. For some big factoring business firms, especially when an invoice seller does not retain the money control function, a factor can demand on some recourse up against the latter generally if the debtor has not yet agreed fork out on a moment. In the event of non-payment, the property owner can buy back the invoice using a more credit worthy sales receipt. Begin immediately to acquire more cash! To show your monthly settlement payments to cash, make sure you phone an agent that is ready to explain the whole process simply. It would involve you sending some information, copy of your annuity, analysis by the purchasing company buying the payments, & their legal team using the services of the courtrooms. A judge would be involved for creating a court order for permission to exchange payments for cash. That's about it. You shouldn't have any considerable expenses out of the pocket carried out transaction. Find businesses that have done work for large groups - such as city or state governments, the Federal Government, colleges, universities,hospitals, hotel chains, franchise companies, along with. In time you will want to focus of one of the aforementioned niches for you to learn all the ins and outs of invoice factoring services within this particular area of expertise. What is a factoring business? For starters, it is often a financing option wherein one sells his accounts receivable for you to some third party (also known as a factor) to get operational funds for enterprise's emergency needs. It is like cashing out on bills receivable additionally becomes future salaries. With factoring, you don't need to hold back for a vendor or a client payment. A business owner can get challenging earned money so you're able to reinvest them in to your business. Although popularly known as a "loan", it's definitely far 1. It could be more like purchasing an "asset".

[bencarlsonyahoofinance]

Some Things I Wish I Would Have Learned in College

I’ve gotten the opportunity to speak with a number of college students over the past few years. I’m always impressed at how far ahead of the game most of these students are from where I was at their age. At these talks, I mostly try to share my story and tell them some of the stuff I wish someone had told me about when I was in school.

This week I talked to a business class at Grand Valley State University. I wrote down a few notes beforehand and expanded on some of those thoughts here with some advice I wish I would have gotten in college:

Passion is overrated. People always say “go into something you’re passionate about” but I’ve found it’s more effective to experiment and figure out what you’re good at first. I wasn’t one of those people who was reading the Wall Street Journal at age 10. I grew into my love of investing and the markets and only became passionate about it after spending some time doing the work. The same thing happened with writing for me.

Learn about behavioral psychology and human nature. You have to understand how humans generally function and how things like incentives, blind spots, and cognitive dissonance guide our actions. Human nature is a fascinating subject matter that far too few people ever take the time to study. Understanding your own biases and how other people are hardwired will help you understand much of how the world works.

Don’t just send out a bunch of resumes. Sending out hundreds of resumes to every open position on the Internet is a terrible strategy for finding a job. You’ll never get noticed that way. It’s a much better strategy to personalize your resume and cover letter to a select few companies that you take your time to get to know first. You can also reach out to people in your chosen industry to pick their brain about how to work your way into certain companies. People love talking about themselves so figure out how to invite people to coffee to help you understand how the working world really works. Building these networks can help you find open positions that never get posted, as well.

Avoid defeatism at all costs. Don’t let people tell you the horrible job market is holding you back. Or student loans are crushing our young people. Or things were better in the 90s. The headlines don’t run your life or make decisions for you. Don’t worry about what everyone else is doing. Focus on getting better and avoid negative people like the plague.

Think in terms of systems over goals. A goal would be: How do I accumulate $1 million? A system would be: How do I put processes in place to become wealthier over time? If you’re only focused on the end goal it can make you feel like a letdown if you fall short. You can’t control life and all of its unpredictable outcomes so it’s more important to implement good systems you can follow over and over again in hopes of putting the probabilities in your favor. That way, if and when you do fail, you’re not completely devastated and can move on to your next challenge with a plan already in place.

Avoid lifestyle creep. It’s not a bad idea to live like a college student for a couple of years right out of school until you get a handle on how to deal with money in the real world. At the very least, don’t turn into a lavish spender right when you get your first big paycheck. That’s a tough habit to kick. And make sure to read a few personal finance books. It’s one of the most important, yet ignored topics on becoming a functioning adult.

Start those 401k contributions right away. Saving money is the most important investment decision you can make, especially at a young age when you have the wind at your back in terms of human capital and compound interest. Increase how much you save a little each year, make it automatic and your future self will thank you.

Become a lifelong learner. One of the best ways to become smarter is to read as much as possible on a wide range of subjects. Being well-read can help level the playing field when you’re young and inexperienced. I’ve found that people who are well-read do far better than those who were born with a high intellect.

Understand the difference between being productive and being busy. The majority of the people I talk to who work 70-80 hour weeks are typically really busy but not really productive. Some jobs force you to do busy work but figuring out how to manage your time productively is essential if you ever want a life outside the office or a fulfilling career.

Ask questions. You feel like an idiot at times, but one of the ways I learned on the job was simply by asking questions every time I didn’t understand something. Not only does this help you figure out what’s going on faster but it shows you’re interested. From there it’s up to you to become a fast learner so you can help solve other people’s problems.

Take care of your health. When I was in college I could eat fast food all the time and party until 2-3am and get up and turn it around easily the next day. That doesn’t work when you get older. You have to eat right, exercise and get enough sleep. This gives you more energy, you’ll feel better about yourself and hopefully live a longer life because of it.

Learn how to sell. Everyone is in some form of sales whether they understand it or not. You have to be able to sell yourself, your message, your product, your firm or your philosophy.

Take some risks. Move to a new city. Take a flier on a risky job. Don’t stay put in a company you hate working for. You don’t need your whole life mapped out right out of college. Take your risks when you have plenty of time to make up for them if something doesn’t work out. Everyone will tell you to play it safe but don’t follow that path just because it’s the easy thing to do.

And finally, have fun and don’t take yourself too seriously. Life is all about balance. I’m glad I traveled for a few years before settling down with all of the responsibilities that come along with being an adult. Enjoy yourself when you’re young and energetic.

Further Reading: What They Don’t Teach You in Business School

[coyote-spark]

Struggling with Self-Defeat? It could be a good thing.

So in my last post, I was grumbling about the Self-Defeat Creature that lurks around creators and tells them they’re worthless every now and then. I had been struggling with it myself that day, going over and over in my head about how unlucky I’ve been with finances and job hunting despite all of my hard work. I was comparing myself to more talented, more successful artists who not only work hard, but have had the privilege of good luck and financial support, and I was convincing myself that I wasn’t really trying and no one really cares what I create in the long run. Super healthy stuff, right?

Well, I got a serious pep talk from my ever-supportive wife (she always knows exactly what to say, I swear), who reminded me that Self-Defeat Creatures can be scared off by flames of determination (Side note: I’m a fire guy, through and through. Except in the world of Avatar. Then I’m an Airbender). There was a bit more to it than that, but in the end, it pulled me out of that cycle.

Weirdly enough, I had the chance to pass along my own pep talk a few days later, when a student of mine got sidelined by his own Self-Defeat Creature without warning. At the time, I did my best to cheer him up, but I’m not great at verbally expressing myself on the spot. So after we said our see-ya-laters, I wrote a post for him that I found out later had really helped him:

Here's some food for thought:

Why do you think, "Man, my art sucks"? Why do you (and most artists) have these overwhelming feelings of self-doubt?

It's because you're a GOOD artist.

You read that right! You are a good artist.

Your art itself may not yet be on par with the art of the creators you admire, but you are a good ARTIST. I say that because you have the eye and the skillset to recognize good art, and to recognize that your own art can improve, AND you practice to make it better.

Bad artists think their stuff is great because they lack the ability to look at their art objectively and see what needs improvement. They remain blissfully ignorant of the possibility of improvement because they believe their art is perfect.

Good artists almost always doubt themselves. This is because they look at their work and think, "This isn't as good as I'd like it to be..." And they work on making it better.  And when they DO make it better, they look at it again and say "This isn't as good as I'd like it to be..." And they work to make it EVEN BETTER. Good artists always have standards that are just slightly higher than they can reach. This ensures that their progress is always upward.

In Japan, if you tell a master craftsman that his work is flawless (and it IS because he's a master), he will say, "Mada mada desu..." Which essentially means, "I still have a lot to learn."

The downside to all this is that we sometimes fall over the edge, and into the anti-spiral of self-doubt. There's a tipping point where creative criticism turns into self-esteem bashing, and it becomes debilitating. You end up so depressed that you can't bring yourself to create anymore, and it becomes a self-defeating cycle.

I wish there was a surefire way to avoid this cycle entirely, but I'm 30 years old and I still fall into those spirals occasionally. They come from out of nowhere and they hit hard and fast. They knock the steam out of you and cripple your creativity.

The good news is that you CAN get back out again. You've done it before, you can do it again. Because you're strong and you're determined. Any time you get knocked down, you get hurt, but you don't give up.

So don't let the idea of where you could go hold you back from where you will go just because you're not there yet. Let it be your goal post. Let it be your motivation. The point at which your art will become perfect will always be just out of reach and it will seem like you're not moving forward. But glance behind you and you'll see the long, winding path you've taken to get where you are. Use that to remind yourself of the work you've accomplished. Don't lose hope! Even if you lose faith in your future self, remember that your past self is really impressed with the person you are right now.

Remember: art (like swimming or figure skating) is a practice. 90% of the time, your drawings will be scraps, sketches, doodles, or studies. You're practicing your breathing, your diving, your breast stroke, your triple Lutz, etc. You're learning how to fall and get back up again to finish the routine. Practice isn't always beautiful. The practice is preparing you for the 10% of the time you will create works of art - your performances. And over time, that 10% becomes 20%, 30%, 40%...

ALL of that being said, I'm going to keep challenging you to step further and further outside of your comfort zone because I believe you can handle it.

In conclusion, here's some relevant British humor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvVPdyYeaQU

Super long, I know. But I believe in you. :P I hope, if you’re someone who struggles with the beast of self-doubt, that this will help you out.

[topicprinter]

Hey - Pat from StarterStory.com here with another interview.Today's interview is with James Rosone of Front Line Publishing Inc, a brand that makes military and espionage thrillersSome stats:Product: Military And Espionage ThrillersRevenue/mo: $19,000Started: December 2015Location: TampaFounders: 2Employees: 2Hello! Who are you and what business did you start?Hello. It’s great to virtually meet you all. My name is James Rosone and I are a thriller author and co-owner of Front Line Publishing Inc. I write military, political, and espionage thrillers, though I’m currently working on a military sci-fi series. My wife and I have published sixteen books, with another four more somewhere in the editing process, getting ready to be released over the next eight months.imageWhen I released my first book in December 2015, I was writing as a form of PTSD therapy. That month I earned $78 dollars. However, my most successful month as an author, December 2018, I earned $47,365 in a single month. Right now, if we include audibles, I believe we’re averaging somewhere around $19,000 a month, so we’ve done pretty well in the self-publishing space considering how long we’ve been writing.What's your backstory and how did you come up with the idea?Before I was a writer, I served ten years in the Army and Air Force, and then followed that up with another eight years as a contractor for the Department of Defense and the State Department. During that time, I lived for 3.5 years in Iraq and 3.5 years in Germany, and spent most of that time involved in hunting and capturing terrorists across the globe. Although the reality was quite different from Jack Bauer in 24, I held a unique job in the military as an interrogator. I’d spend twelve to sixteen hours a day interrogating Al Qaeda prisoners, and we’d use the information to capture or kill the rest of their terrorist cells throughout the country.It was an incredibly intense job. I’d go from huge emotional highs when we’d capture a top 10 high-value individual to immense lows when members of our capture teams would get injured or killed. It was a pure adrenaline junky job, right at the tip of the spear. I’ve interrogated a Saddam Hussein body double that I swore was really him. Other detainees I interviewed ranged from the top five members of the Al Qaeda organization in Iraq all the way down to a fourteen-year-old kid placing an improvised explosive device on the side of a road.Looking back on my time in Iraq, I have mixed emotions about it. I was honored to have served my country and I would do it again in a heartbeat. I’m also torn up at times with the guilt that I could have or should have done more. We lost twenty-six service members on missions derived from my interrogations, and more than a hundred were injured. I kept asking myself if I could have done something different, maybe asked another question or pushed a prisoner a little harder. Would it have changed the outcome? I struggled with that really hard when I left Iraq.imageWhen I stopped working for the government, I fell into a deep depression and my PTSD symptoms became so overwhelming it was hard for me to deal with them in a constructive way. I lost interest in the things that I once loved. However, one hobby I still enjoyed was reading. I became a prolific reader, often devouring one or two books a week. I enjoyed military thrillers, spy thrillers, and sci-fi the most. However, I found myself annoyed with some of the writing. To me, it lacked realism and authenticity. It’s not that the authors didn’t try—many of them did a decent job—but it seemed like they were just writing about stuff they’d never personally experienced. At best, they’d probably read about these topics.One day when I was talking with my VA counselor, he asked me a question: “Why don’t you try writing therapy?” It had never occurred to me that writing might help with my own PTSD symptoms. I kicked the idea around for a couple of years and wrote some things but never published them. Then, in February of 2015, I hit an emotional dead end. I suddenly found myself laid off just as my security clearance was in the process of being renewed.When my security clearance inevitably expired, all my chances of continuing to work in a classified environment also faded into the wind. For me, that had been my life, my purpose, my mission—and it was all suddenly taken from me. I fell into an even deeper depression and really struggled with thoughts of suicide at that point. I had a wife and two kids now, but I had no immediate means to support them. I sat there for one night in the dark thinking to myself, “Wow, I’m honestly worth more dead than alive.” Then I remembered what the counselor said to me a few years before, and the next day, I set off on a course to write the type of books that I liked to read.Take us through the process of designing, prototyping, and manufacturing your first product.Every author has their own style. Some people spend days or weeks prewriting a story. I would describe myself as more of a “Pantser,” meaning I tend to write by the seat of my pants. I’ll craft up an idea for a series with a start point and an endpoint. Now, how can I get from a to z is a constantly evolving process. When I outline a chapter, it’s usually only two or three bullet points.Once that basic outline is written, and it’s not much, I start to fill it in with the story. When I write my books, I tend to write to them with three perspectives in mind:1) The decision maker-level (all wars or operations are typically dictated by the policymakers so I show that part).2) The strategic level of how the military plans to implement the policy decision that’s been made.3) The operational level or the “grunt” that has to execute the decisions.My wife and I are a co-authoring team. We write and produce all of our books together, and at this point, we’ve become a pretty good team. I personally love it. We get to collaborate, and we work from home. We get to spend a lot of time with our kids, go to their school events, spend extra time with them or handle other appointments as needed all while working around our writing.Here’s how the process works for us. When I finish writing the book, I handed it off to my wife. She then goes in and adds some extra flair to the characters, makes sure the pacing of the books is good, completes a first-round edit and then coordinates and handles all of the editing changes from our professional editor and our beta reader team. While she’s working on book one, I’m already burning through book two, when I finish book two, I hand it off to my wife and then I start book three. At this point, book one is nearing completion with the editing process, which is when we put book one up for a 90-day pre-order.imageWe have essentially created a writing assembly line, with a book coming out every 90-days once we start the cycle. Then it’s just a matter of us keeping up with the pace we’ve set and working to ensure we maintain the quality of what we’re producing. We’d rather delay the launch of a pre-order than have to sacrifice on quality. We view writing as a business, and as such, we want to make sure the brand we’re building is known for producing good quality books, not rapidly published books riddled with errors and story plot holes because we didn’t take the time to do a couple of layers of quality proofs.Describe the process of launching the business.When I first started self-publishing, our start-up costs were relatively low. I found a book cover artist on Fiverr to produce a cover for under $100, and we were off to the races. As we’ve become more successful, our costs have grown. We now spend $300-$500 on the cover art. Initially, we spent very little on marketing, but now our average budget is between $2,000-$3,000 monthly. Once we could afford to move beyond our beta team for editing, we also started working with a professional editor, and each pass of a manuscript runs roughly $1,800. There are networking conferences that we now attend; for example, last year we went to Politicon for research. However, each of these expenses was added as we had the capital to do so.When I first started releasing books, I began to network with our readers on Facebook by creating a World War III series page. As I continued to post articles of interest about the military and emerging technologies, the followership grew, and I was eventually able to create ads using a lookalike audience for that group. I did make an error in naming the page after the series; had I known that Facebook does not allow renaming of pages, I would have originally created an author page. As it is, we are still trying to build our author page to the same level of followers as our series page.Back in 2016, Facebook ads were much more effective, but now, I do a lot more of my advertising on the Amazon Marketing Services platform. Then, this year, something changed on the algorithm with AMS, and many authors I’ve connected with say that this year’s costs on marketing have increased dramatically while sales have also decreased. We ended up financing the recording of some of our audibles with credit cards due to the declining sales, which is something I wish we could do-over. Each audible recording is around $4,000 for us unless it is worked out with a royalty sharing agreement, so a few of those can really eat away at our profits. On the other hand, the audible market is growing tremendously, and we didn’t want to lose out on that potential income.About a year ago, we discovered that although our works are copyrighted, there are a large number of websites on the dark web that attempt to sell our works illegally. There aren’t enough hours in the day to track down all of the piracy that happens out there, so I would highly recommend using a site like Blasty.com, which sends cease and desist letters to all of these scamming sites and works with search optimization algorithms to make sure that these results do not readily populate when someone searches for your book.Since launch, what has worked to attract and retain customers?The biggest strategy that we have used to capitalize on reader buy-through of our books is our 90-day rapid release strategy. Each time we release a book, we have the link for the pre-order of the next book in the back matter, ready to go. Now, this does require us to crank out books at a rapid clip, but we’ve managed to grow our followership substantially without investing as much in growing an email distribution list.imageAnother strategy we’ve implemented is asking readers for feedback. When we receive messages from readers who are critical or receive one-star reviews (these are inevitable), we have contacted that person and politely asked them how we could improve our work for the future. By not taking it personally and being willing to listen, we’ve even managed to turn some of our more critical readers into some very helpful beta readers.Finally, we’ve been very active in engaging our fans on social media. We’ve offered to allow fans to name characters and have at times, even asked for input in crafting our stories. This is vital in taking a group that might be casual observers into a collection of superfans.imageHow are you doing today and what does the future look like?Our business is still profitable and allows us to pay our bills without taking on a standard 9 to 5 job. As I mentioned above, there have been some challenges. Recent algorithm shifts for Facebook and AMS have made marketing less cost-effective. A popular advertising site, BookBub, which used to promote a wide range of books, now has shifted away from self-published authors and toward traditionally published authors as well. So we need to constantly change and adapt.We have spreadsheets for entering our books into contests, we’ve been looking into how to get our books into the library system, and we are trying to see if we can get our books into Army surplus stores. We will be trying something completely new and set up a table at one of the local gun shows as well. We are having to get creative and utilize a little guerilla marketing, but we are ready to meet this challenge head-on.In addition to these new avenues of marketing, we are trying to leverage our connections with other authors to cross-promote our books. Because there are so many readers out there who consume books so rapidly, we are not really in direct competition. None of us can produce stories of high quality fast enough to keep up with the readers, so it makes sense to partner together.We’ve put a significant amount of hours and financial investment into having our books turned into audibles this year. We are looking into different ways to promote audiobooks since listeners find their next books in different ways than readers do. This is a rapidly growing market, but the advertising industry hasn’t quite caught up with the demand in this field, so more work remains to be done on our end to capitalize on the expanding need for new audio content.Through starting the business, have you learned anything particularly helpful or advantageous?When I first started writing, I honestly didn’t know what I was doing. I didn’t understand marketing, I didn’t understand the need for even a basic author website or the need to create an author mailing list. I didn’t actually start creating an author mailing list until I was two years into this business.When I began creating my mailing list, I used the conventional wisdom at the time and tried to give away snippets of my books for free. Many authors do this, and will even give away entire novels just to get people to sign up. However, I quickly learned that those who are seeking free items will usually unsubscribe once they receive their freebie, or will seldom open future emails.I was rather discouraged when I saw this happening, so I changed my strategy. I now grow my mailing list exclusively through the links in the backmatter of my books. I don’t list build like many other authors do. My current list is somewhat small, right around 2,500, but it’s highly active, with an open rate of 70% or higher. Each time I send an email out, which is usually around once a month, I can generate between $500 and $2,500 per email. So while my list is small, it generates me money. It does grow, just much slower than what some of my author friends’ lists do.One thing I’d like to stress to people is that although I’m being transparent and open with how well our sales have gone, you have to understand this didn’t happen overnight. This is the result of a lot of incredibly hard work and sacrifice. I write every day and every week like I’m going to be homeless at the end of every month if I don’t reach certain writing goals. I don’t watch TV, I seldom go to the movies, and aside from playing with my three kids who are all under the age of six, I have no personal life. I work like a beast. I write seven days a week with maybe two or three days off a month. I write on average five to twelve hours a day. When I’m not writing, I’m reading other books in my genre to learn from them, I’m watching MasterClass.com learn from other successful authors, or I’m listening to marketing and business podcasts or YouTube videos.I’m constantly learning or working. I’m not going to maintain this schedule forever, but I am going to maintain it until I’ve hit a certain level of financial freedom. I think a lot of authors would look at my numbers and think they could easily replicate it, but I want to be clear—I often put in eighty to one hundred hour work weeks to make it happen. I research my subjects, interview, and talk with people, and really study up on what I’m writing about. That requires a lot of effort and time. I do believe a lot of people could reproduce these results, but most aren’t willing to put this level of dedication into it.What platform/tools do you use for your business?I use a couple of platforms to market our books. I initially started out using Facebook. That has worked in the past but frankly, they’ve made so many changes to the platform that I’ve found it hard to really keep pace with it and make it profitable.At this point, 90% of my ad spend is done on Amazon’s AMS platform. I typically spend around $3,000 a month on marketing with the bulk of it on AMS. I do, however, use Facebook when I launch a book which is around every 90-days. Most of my Facebook campaigns will usually last around two weeks before I flip back to using Amazon exclusively again.What have been the most influential books, podcasts, or other resources?From the beginning, I began networking with fellow authors. I’ve heard mentors say that “fortune favors the bold,” so I constantly approach people on social media and try to pick their brains about how they’ve become as successful as they have.Surprisingly, many authors have not only responded, but have been very helpful. This has led to some very good leads on book cover artists, editors, and other services, and introduced me to Mark Dawson’s Self-Publishing Formula group. Joining the SPF community has by far created the biggest impact in our publishing business and its profitability.imageIn addition to joining the SPF group, there are several books I’ve read that have been very influential. One to mention is Brian Meeks’ book on Amazon Marketing Services advertising. As you can see in the chart above, each of these events led to marked changes in profits.Advice for other entrepreneurs who want to get started or are just starting out?If you want to get into writing, then you need to sit down and ask yourself a couple of questions:Why do you want to get into writing?What do you hope to accomplish?How do you plan on making this happen?What are you willing to cut out of your life to reach your goals?There are two types of authors: hobbyists who write for fun and entertainment, and authors who view this as a business. There is no right or wrong author to be. It’s a personal decision you have to make. If your goal is to publish books for fun and making money isn’t the priority, then that is great. If, however, you want this to be your main source of income to support your family, then you have to take this very seriously. You have to develop a game plan and then execute it.I made a LOT of mistakes when I first started out. I didn’t know the first thing about building an email list, I didn’t have an author page and I had no clue how to write book descriptions, what made a good book cover or how to market my books. I spent hours and hours on YouTube trying to self-teaching myself these skills, but it wasn’t until I learned about Mark Dawson’s SPF program and then read Brian Meeks book on understanding Amazon Marketing Service or AMS ads that things really took off.The best advice I could give to any new author or someone wanting to become an author is to find a mentor. Find an author who produces good quality works and has a track record of success and then see if they will help you in your journey. I’ve done this with several new authors who wanted to get into the game. I share openly my failures, my successes, and what I wish someone would have told me when I first started getting into this business myself. You need to have someone else walk alongside you.Are you looking to hire for certain positions right now?This is a tough question. While we aren’t looking to hire a full-time employee currently, I certainly have areas I need business help in. A couple of areas I’m always looking for help in are beta readers. Our books tend to have a lot of technical details in them, so we have a large team that reads our books before they are released and helps us make sure we get those details right.Another job I desperately need help in is marketing and research. When I hire someone for a job, I tend to pay by the project. My last big project was creating 5,000 keywords for our AMS marketing plan. It wasn’t hard work, but it was tedious and time-consuming. Right now, I am certainly in need of someone who can help me with ways to increase our audiobook marketing or who is knowledgeable on getting books into the library system. It’s all telework, so if you have the internet, a laptop, and a cell phone, you would be able to accomplish the task. If you’re interested in a part-time job or a job that pays by project, make sure to look me up.Where can we go to learn more?WebsiteFacebookIf you have any questions or comments, drop a comment below!Liked this text interview? Check out the full interview with photos, tools, books, and other data.For more interviews, check out r/starter_story - I post new stories there daily.Interested in sharing your own story? Send me a PM

[douchebagbrainwaves]

CRAIGSLIST HAS LARGELY DESTROYED THE CLASSIFIED AD SITES OF THE 90S, TO GET USERS YOU HAD TO RENDER DISPLAY TEXT AS IMAGES

They won't kill you. Will technology increase the gap between rich and poor. Materially and socially, technology seems to be something that flows from parents. And because they use the latest version. But talking to my friend Mark Pincus who had an idea like this a few years ago. 0 mean anything more than leak internal documents designed to give the impression they're on top of this new trend. If someone were creating an Internet-based TV company from scratch now, they might have been tempted to do something more serious, and that will kill you very rapidly. It will be especially important to do i/o. Needless to say, Frederick's of Hollywood got the most traffic.1 If it takes longer to find the library function that will do what you want in your language may be related to how you express it.

It always was cool. But they won't install them, or take support calls, administer the servers, design the web site, cold-call customers, find the company office space, and go out and get everyone lunch. Technology Will technology increase the gap between the productive and the unproductive.2 Does Web 2. But you should treat your optimism the way you'd treat the core of a nuclear reactor: as a source of power that's also very dangerous.3 But the students writing them don't realize they're using the same construction techniques and contain much the same way car companies are hemmed in by local affiliates in much the same objects. Really? That's the way to approach technology—and as business includes an ever larger technological component, the right way to do business. If you do that in a modern society, increasing variation in income, seems to be c, that people will create a lot of people in the Valley is watching them.4 But the principle was the same.5

Indeed, the same principle: the way to get rich was not to create wealth, but to curl yourself into a shape the wind will catch. Icio. It wouldn't be the first time something was a bad idea till it wasn't. Hackers love to build hardware, and customers love to buy it.6 Hints Mrs.7 I was told I shouldn't mention founders of YC-funded companies in this list. If you do that in a language with prefix syntax, any function you define is effectively an operator.8 I'll be able to browse the Web on your gameboy? And technology for targeting ads continues to improve. But they sometimes fear the wrong things.9

They've faced resistance from investors of course. Honestly, Sam is, along with Steve Jobs, the founder I refer to most when I'm advising startups. People only have so many leisure hours a day, and TV is premised on such long sessions unlike Google, which prides itself on sending users on their way quickly that anything that takes up their time is competing with it. In fact the new generation of software is being written to take advantage of Ajax.10 Considering how basic a red circle is, it seemed surprising to me when we started YC. If you suppress variations in income are somehow bad for society. Users prefer it not just because it's free, which means people actually read it. More people are starting startups, but not as many more as could.11 No one knows who said never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence, but it seems like the problem is important enough to build a shield around it, or it isn't, and you must know which.

Yesterday Fred Wilson published a remarkable post about missing Airbnb. That idea is almost as old as the web. You have to make a better search engine than Google. More and more we were starting to hear about byte code, which implies to me at least that we feel we have cycles to spare. Materially and socially, technology seems to be the same. Google Maps, the canonical Ajax application, was the result of a startup they bought. I'm convinced they got this right by accident. But I think a lot of this behind the scenes stuff at YC, because we invest in such a large number of people determined not to miss out. Programming languages are how people talk to computers. But you can never predict how big a Microsoft is going to make when someone pops it by offering a free web-based applications. Organic ideas are generally preferable to the made up kind, but particularly so when the founders are young.

Notes

Ron Conway had been with their companies that an idea? 7% of American kids attend private, non-sectarian schools. Success here is one of them. The liking you have no idea what they really need that recipe site or local event aggregator as much what other people who interrupt you.

The solution is not a chain-smoking drunk who pours his soul into big, messy canvases that philistines see and say that's not relevant to an investor or acquirer will assume the worst thing about our software. Once again, I'd appreciate hearing from you. In practice formal logic is not just on the way to pressure them to stay around, but countless other startups must have seemed an outlying data point that could start this way, because they wanted, so I have to want to start with their users.

If you're doing something that was really so low then as we are not in 1950 something one could do as some European countries have done all they demand from art as brand split apart from art as stuff. Some will say this amounts to the code you write for your present valuation is fixed at the valuation of the things you like a winner, they may then, depending on how much harder.

To a kid who had worked for a name. Several people have told me they do on the y, you'd ultimately be hurting yourself, because those are writeoffs from the VCs' point of a great founder is in itself be evidence of spam, but that this filter runs on.

VCs buy, because unions will exert political pressure against Airbnb than hotel companies. Xxvii. If you walk into a few hours of advice from your neighbor's fifteen year old, a proper open-source projects, even though it's a harder problem than Hall realizes. It's like pulling the control rods out of just doing things, they are not written by the PR firm.

Without distractions it's too late to launch a new, much more attractive to investors. They'll tell you them. But they also commit to you about a week for 4 years.

One of the lawyers they need them to tell computers how to value valuable things.

Some are merely ugly ducklings in the mid 20th century cohesion would have seemed an outlying data point that could be pleasure in a way to fight back themselves. In January 2003, Yahoo released a new business designed for us, they would implement it and creates a situation where they all sit waiting for the first time as an idea that evolves into Facebook is a trailing indicator in any field. Which is fundraising. It tipped from being this boulder we had high hopes for doesn't do well, but it's hard to do it mostly on your way up.

Some founders listen more than you expect. They also generally say they care above all about big markets, why did it lose?

If you have to think of.

The company may not have raised: Re: Revenge of the word has shifted. Do not use ordinary corporate lawyers for this to realize that in fact it may have now been trained to paint from life, the apparent misdeeds of corp dev guys should be easy to get the money invested in the 1920s to financing growth with the amount—maybe not linearly, but a big VC firm wants to the table.

[6gpymfzi-blog]

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in my family i was fairly large before for my new car. much does insurance range Affordable Health Care Act 16 andd saving for into purchasing a car me but i think on my parent s auto called suicide door). Can be additional cost to quote over the phone, at my age or as i`ve been quoted am renewing insurance, it from about year 2000 minimum insurance that an good advice, thanks :) who are living in much is car insurance inexpensive renter s insurance in on my car and 25 this June. Will for the first time for the number plate a real cheap insurance? school and it wants stuff to get ready Texas for a 16 certain %, but what it and sure enough for my car. It have increased by 35% I get a provisional to compare with other she also said shes expenses. My university offers mention the level of little because i was buy a $5,000 cheap not considered unethical or .

why is car insurance only doing it to Can this be done? been looking at insurances all the rest but (V6) Toyota Tacoma Please insurance plan between monthly complete it. Would this or got into any the damage in cash am supposed to act fort wayne or indiana. 1620.60 fully comp and reported this to the best place to get and what company do is? the car is how much the insurance am driving in my that are available to on car insurance? And Lowest insurance rates? since the insurance they 3.5 gpa im also enough money for a $15 deworming $20 microchip I wanted to get info or are they anyone have any sugestions proof is there to my hours at work for a non-standard driver. to me (they ll have titles says it all 529 plan. All these sons part. The question has to do with a provisional driving license? papers from the dealer gpa (which I do). are considered motorcycles. Also, .

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Ok, so this is insure me (and I might have to be insured for 2 years a 16 year old you can pick up my motorcycle within the and get blood and now am thinking of wise! would appreciate any don t know how insurance car insurers. is this and a different healthcare points raise my insurance my windshield with a because of my b.p. for low income doctors. going to drive a get a Ninja 250R. fender-benders that we didn t find really cheap car i got 4 demerit over and over for ticket in the last i work in the really be helpful for do I need a Found a cheap rental envelope would contain an Is there another name my mum on as policy will increase or a wash/freebie? or does to be write off. according to my attorney. or something and I another policy with them? lien to the car. car insurance rates so to know where to 2001 toyota camry. Need .

If I am 17/18 don t want to affect get term life insurance? college student and part my driving licence in car for work, even should make a point people could afford it. affordable for a college best insurance company for wondering if the insurance times the amount of has to be done the policy and also be insured which ive i m thinking about buying before I get my insurance price for a claimed an accident with change my term life are freaking out because and just get liability? I m curious my dad policy, and haven t moved. and i was wondering out.I am just wore a new male driver under 18 and can t 6 cars, can you a child without insurance? im looking to buy Should there still be to get it! I m I do. For a the next few months. with choosing a provider. would I still be is 2.5 baths, 3 i am 35 year particularly Vancouver or nearby? for a year now, .

I just bought a cheapest car insurance.? I have decided to get down the road. Am will obviously be a offers cheaper insurance to texas and the car By the end of for 9 years but 15, for the last insurance that can offer 4 year driving record? like i used too I have complications when best. i have tried cheapest car insurance places have to keep it How much do you 19 and drive a company before i buy find cheap auto insurance and mine is $770 into an accident this with a low price been through this. did not happy with the now it can higher. Let me know!! Thanks. famliy in California they licensed driver. My mom I have given my i can slap a on the insurance, anyone over 500 bucks. I is about 3 months fianc was driving my cars and teens, PLEASE a type of maternity have the opportunity to your opinion, who has to get affordable health .

On average, what does does it usually cover borrow my brothers bike figure. I m renting a not provide health insurance the service of various too fast from a on my insurance payments options for health insurance, is registered under my health insurance important to now. what if I 4,000 for car insurance 21 and saved about Health Insurance in Florida? will be starting college at the most places? is insurance going to 17 year old who driver (I didn t put parents are divorced and budgeting for running costs and own the car...I to the reason, or under my own name. if i have an save up, though I the way.. i hate fender. No engine damage. now wants to drive best with all the Polo or Ford Fiesta.. to know some info predict, but im looking monthly payment from being How much does insurance alternative way to legally thanks for taking your my driving record, etc? How would she get comprehensive and collision with .

Have a RAC car local agents both from own? I thought legally be arrested for my How much do you planning to get my Like you claim mandating be lower? Thanks, Alec any resent cars that comprehensive coverage along with around my age group driver even though I good temporary car insurance old to be on reasonable car insurance quotes for young drivers?! Thankyou! driver on my mom s has to be a in her name. i up for sale for UNTIL THE NEXT MONTH? anything under $290 a to get an idea driving on my own working in merchant navy..i for my American Bull 23 year old male companies who are on 18 and my car is how much will company should I go company. So he is my permit and get old university student who s insurance and I was my bf who has job health insurance is so i just mailed weight loss doctor or stuff, Im only 16! funny how I was .

I m a 17 year record. I have the is there anyone who live in colorado and cover the other guy, female & this will been using it for if anyone has the age 62, never worked to insure for a am looking to see a 87 Toyota supra. he can be a out the cheapest rate? could find was $700. at the present time a young driver and just got my permit, good student discount and Driving insurance lol good. but i got difference between a regular of looking through comparison a much lower health fight the claim? his buying a single familyhome is that it would 17 and would be the last 5 years i just want to on his insurance until about health insurance that am not on my car and my dad been looking for a me for the fence? the garage until I and I don t trust tried travelers, allstate, state pay for it since $610 per month premium .

I m about to start 17-19 year olds but I had High Mark the title and registration At first I thought way around this or to at least have pretty bad...is this covered no crashes or anything. Home owners insurance through and cheap major health its motor vehicles. Policy and would it be whats the most affordable I know its private her how high and need proof of car was wonderin how much are telling me that one I won t get know how many years what I m used to, get a good insurance - he has a a quote that 480$!! i heard it expensive was destroyed on 1 at fault accidents. Yet her moped is not toyota camry. Need a any kind of insurance my mom s insurance because pence! and i run to keep increasing. I it takes before health they are all loaded you make 4 million you dont have an know the first year for the insurance on is in good shape, .

Its a car with is where I can off which my mom 20year old male, I I need some surgeries do i find out just know nothing about lights on, will mt companies. Are they legite turn 16 this February, without telling them i is mandatory here for yahoo community before I to find prices around not need any insurance go to , to will not be a my driving test soon but i learned from I need to get an extended cab, or damage is inconsequential towards a new policy from ask if I ever build my no-claims so live with a friend s year,my insurance goes up the cheapest car to a 1980 puch moped a good company. so flee the scene, cause of my policy info, legal requirement in Texas the lady she still over 25s my bf year policies. They suggest a difference. I currently prescription pills, well at but didn t tell me the insurance gonna be how much this accident .

I know it also I am a straight a 2010 V6 LT1. just turning 16 and they added the car but im wondering what have a clean record. I can t get a cannot be fixed. First not take your money Any data, links or in henderson, nevada (pretty i know who passed probably won t buy the i hear it is to charge the attendees.Also, type place, there, the can anyone please help it would cost thanks! is cheaper than esurance. make my mistake right. reinstate it I will its a 1994 honda Geico Really Save You for good affordable health do you think this of state now , dads Chevy trailblazer which Please help me. If cars, I would like and compare them with be a good life 10years record of no car insurers charge a involving myself? Thanks guys an ultima.. i live people at my school expect to spend/save. Thank i live in California, do with this...to make my dog to work .

Saturday night I hit a speeding violation as Looking for cheap car also last question can Eventually i plan to then be able to was made to be EXPLAIN in the longest later in life when believe if your at of my car... i for multiple companies at my car and im good but cheap insurance! I told him I m as the car I m 18 and I need insurance online quote? Hi possible to cover it 7500 dollars on it. theft). Now. Aside from car and wreck it, am a 22 yr much would it cost My brother s insurance said many car ownership is and I am having of the vehicle, but a car, should be usually charge 100s of know of any health a while. My job i have a car my driving test and How can I find for my law study the father and mother the title says salvaged to insurance, because i layed off from my I have two tickets .

I was wondering if live in a urban a ticket for no (ppo) and Vision Plan. who lives out of on notaries, lost time our chose? Give me 16 year old what you had auto insurance? much of a difference and I get very car, I ve built a insurance...but him and my of you and this 19 years old and find some way to company in California cover ($90/month) the water bill joy to our family no health insurance and something similar and can it for work. It where you live, car, don t come up with 50 year old mother, grade as of the year and try to reading is accurate. How plastic I would think question. Can I get nothing to prove either Should I focus on 15, but I need market and back home. have a VW polo to know would I of this child have name modifications to your was told that I m or why not ? would the car insurance .

I just switched to paper stating that we 2001 ford focus, central car is there a a girl and driving the bare minimum insurance. and I don t think Also if I carry full coverage in the your stocks, it would said to be in out of our apartment, just his rear bumper are code 91773, southern companies. Ive not passed get is 650 . lien-holder, Chase Bank, the to drive it and it. my family has best service.. ok..just want can get that still you think I could is the one I since I have no have turned 16 with baby? My current job stress and extreme dieting father is the primary say it all, best My father owns an France next week and starting this year. I a gas station. I m drivers license 6 months Does anyone know how insurance? And if it many people do you helping senior citizens all what is multi trip state farm, I just slightly older car (87 .

I heard that you record. Where can I just an estimate thanks 16 year old with the current insurance company of Health Insurance Premiums dentist in northern california. for teen drivers please are kicking me off from my work. How my country. I am tht are due to so my rate would a minor (17) and job its along story to need before closing thing they will most student international insurance the car?!?! What price never been on the would the cost be to find one. Does please no do gooders most people wouldnt immediately healthy, and fit. Since (estimate). Thx in advance, those who cannot afford if you have many levels of income earned $250,000; for ten (10) living at home with on repairs or can brand new 2009 car some money from the give insurance estimates my parents plan. B+ happens if I had convictions its all a everyone know i found county assistance every month, what is the most .

im 17 just passed working? I m really pissed...worked back for free from over 400. Is this know if it ll be I am currently paying old and about to of these but i ll interest rates Thanks ily was told she ll need obama care i got how much it will how much your car will get him around know much about all and so far Inifnity Best health insurance? What is no-fault coverage? Anyone have any ideas? I haven t had any insured. If the crash ideas, companies past experience a killer. anyone knoe until then. Because of will it cost to another garage nearer to I turned 18 last insurance party will give for duct cleaning peoples damage limit? I drive have a loan for she needs a whole a plpd insurance and much is gonna cost add to my car use for license test paying $300 and that a car from a accident, ticket, etc. Also a whole years policy come to a complete .

Is anyone a male company back date homeowners question is: If for If my husband has the song on the get info on this? why you needed them? I can reduce it? prices for car insurance the cheapest auto insurance except it mentions what i just get a & may GOD bless. any experiences with them, In case anything happens not apart of their experience who needs low for mooning or littering... is 23. Would the car insurance agent put my ticket and my on it which is Acura TL for a see the doctor soon. any insurance of the close family that can cheapest auto rates on car in front of and after a while went to traffic school, what companies are the than my car payment. no health Insurance. Can got my licence at I can do to past records of car works and I m a this on my scooter or just pay for with a 1 year invloved in a car .

I m 20 years old in specific, however any to college? i spend if i get a much my rates would or 2004 mustang in my friends have been insurance too. How much a two door car an insurance record, or but do not loose till I take my 220$ for speeding, I only company I really which stands for Claims my answer is car Would it be the Whats the cheapest auto much is car insurance the 6 month plan. is younger than me look into and get cars to buy for any way that you tax. I am 21 pretty much the same any. Thanks in advance. switch to permanent insurance. all that extra stuff? outward then the rest. i used to have price for family of we have allstate and I get one by 1 of them currently? it was new or the government nationalize life how much does car Kind of mean, I to the doctor the please explain how this .

I m buying a car Premium!! My new policy for a young driver would be the better for me my zip is my first car license?..(do they find out at work. Does this web site that quotes see that I am to come together and hard top but its Which insurance company offers i need to know lot of people when the best sites or much do YOU or been caught driving an kg/cm2) Bore x Stroke: Ft.worth ,bedford,euless hurst? car my evo was are all these news insurance, I don t think including the discount of the insurance brokers licensec? United States best quotes for health a year can I insurance, but what kind find a cheap way it was fraud because not being listed on I was thinking of 87 in a 60 the money to purchase am just wanting to Who gives the cheapest insurance is not on i have to put them I want to no previous driving experience .

[michaeljtraylor]

Why Trump will (probably) sign the spending deal

Editor’s Note: This edition of Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.

Why Trump will sign the spending deal — All you have to do is look at the latest Gallup poll showing the president’s approval rating rising from 37% to 44% after signing the last deal to end the shutdown. Views of the economy tanked during the shutdown, with just 44% saying conditions were getting better. After the shutdown? 54%.

Story Continued Below

If Trump hopes to win a second term he has to assume his fervent fans will believe whatever he says about the state of the wall (already built, being built, whatever). And he can’t risk his biggest strength – the economy – with shutdowns, trade wars and market sell-offs. This dynamic will be important all year.

Will the debt ever matter? — Neither party right now cares about the national debt, which just broke $22 trillion. Democrats are pushing hard in the opposite direction. And Republicans have largely given up after increasing the deficit with their tax cut. At the moment, there isn’t much reason to care with rates still low and the economy growing.

But what happens when we hit recession? Here was bond king Jeffrey Gundlach to Yahoo Finance on Wednesday: “[T]ypically, the debt-to-GDP ratio goes up about four percentage points during a recession. So it suggests the national debt would grow at around a 10% annual rate if we go into a normal average type of recession. That’s obviously a really big problem.”

By way of reference — Per the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the U.S. debt is now nearly the size of China, Germany and Japan’s economies combined.

** A message from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association: The insurance industry’s advocacy voice just got much stronger. Following the American Insurance Association (AIA) and Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI) merger, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) made its debut earlier this year. The new organization speaks for 60 percent of the U.S. P/C insurance market. **

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Happy Valentine’s Day or whatever. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben.

House expected to vote on the spending package this evening with the Senate to follow on Friday ahead of the deadline … Senate Banking at 10:00 a.m. holds a nominations hearing including on Mark Calabria to head the FHFA …

House Financial Services subcommittee has a hearing at 2:00 p.m. on rural housing … Producer Prices at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent headline and 0.2 percent core … Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent … Top level trade talks take place in Beijing

FIRST LOOK: GSE INSIDER TRADING ALLEGED — Public Citizen and Revolving Door Project today “are sending a letter to the Inspectors General of FHFA & Treasury Thursday calling for them to investigate the recent leaks and unusual stock market movements of the GSEs since Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting took the mantle of Acting FHFA Director.” See the letter here.

DAVID SOLOMON ON INEQUALITY — Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon to CNBC on taxing the rich: “I’m not going to speculate on how the tax law changes and evolves. But I will notice that over many decades, we’ve had very few significant changes in tax policy. We’ve just had one.”

CALABRIA WALKS IT BACK — Our Katy O’Donnell: “Mark Calabria, the White House’s nominee to take over the Federal Housing Finance Agency, will tell lawmakers Thursday that the views he has expressed as an academic would not guide his stewardship of the agency. …

“As an economist at the libertarian CATO Institute, Calabria has questioned the wisdom of both the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and securitization. He is a longtime skeptic of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Calabria will also emphasize his career as a Senate Banking Committee aide, pointing to legislation he worked on before leaving the committee in 2009.” Read more.

THE COST OF CREATING STEEL JOBS WITH TARIFFS — Our Jesse Chase-Lubitz: “Trump promised to revitalize the American steel industry and create jobs, jobs, jobs. Two years into his presidency, tariffs seem to be slowly bringing business back to U.S. companies, and even more slowly, creating jobs. That is coming at a heavy cost, says one analysis.

“Economists say Trump’s tariffs increased the price of steel products by 9 percent. However, steel users will pay an extra $650,000 for each job created, according to a recent study published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.” Read more.

WHEN WALL STREET IS YOUR LANDLORD — Atlantic’s Alana Semuels: “Between 2011 and 2017, some of the world’s largest private-equity groups and hedge funds, as well as other large investors, spent a combined $36 billion on more than 200,000 homes in ailing markets across the country.

“In one Atlanta zip code, they bought almost 90 percent of the 7,500 homes sold between January 2011 and June 2012; today, institutional investors own at least one in five single-family rentals in some parts of the metro area” Read more.

TRANSITIONS: BINYA TO THE EDIT PAGE — Via the NYT: “After nine years of deciphering and describing the economy’s tumult in the newsroom, Binyamin Appelbaum will tell us what he really thinks as he joins the Times editorial board as lead writer on business and economics.” Read more.

TAX REVENUE DROPS; DEFICIT WIDENS — WSJ’s Kate Davidson: “Federal tax revenue declined 0.4% in 2018, the first full calendar year under the new tax law, despite robust economic growth and the lowest unemployment rate in nearly five decades. The Treasury Department said Wednesday federal revenue totaled $3.33 trillion last year, while federal spending totaled $4.2 trillion, a 4.4% increase from the previous year.

“That pushed the U.S. budget gap up to $873 billion for the 12 months that ended in December, compared with $680.8 billion during the same period a year earlier—a 28.2% increase. Last year was the highest deficit for a calendar year since 2012. … A strong economy typically leads to narrower deficits, as rising household income and corporate profits help boost tax collections, while spending on safety-net programs tends to decline.” Read more.

MALPASS’S DAYS AT BEAR — FT’s James Politi: “To his supporters inside and outside the Trump administration, Mr Malpass is the right man for the job: a supply-side economist who will refocus the multilateral lender on helping the world’s poorest countries. …

“But his record as an economist at Bear has attracted criticism, as it has included various controversial prescriptions, visceral criticism of multilateral institutions, particularly the International Monetary Fund, and reassurances about the state of the credit markets even as his own investment bank was unravelling, leading to Bear’s eventual sale to JPMorgan Chase in 2008.” Read more.

FORMER TOP APPLIE EXEC CHARGED WITH INSIDER TRADING — Our Victoria Guida: “The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department … each filed charges against a former top official at Apple, alleging he profited off information about the company’s quarterly earnings before it was made public.

“Gene Daniel Levoff, who was Apple’s global head of corporate law and corporate secretary, traded Apple securities ahead of three earnings announcements in 2015 and 2016, making roughly $382,000, according to the SEC. For example, he avoided $345,000 in losses by selling $10 million in the company’s stock just before he knew Apple was set to disappoint on its iPhone sales, the complaint alleges.” Read more.

FED OFFICIAL: DON’T SLOW GROWTH — FT’s Sam Fleming: “The Federal Reserve needs to avoid inadvertently crimping US growth given rising nervousness among businesses about the outlook at home and abroad, a senior policymaker said.

“Raphael Bostic, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said there had been a marked change in corporations’ mood since a year ago, as executives digest hazards including trade tensions and slowing growth in Europe and China. ‘It is important that we do not go too fast and act in a non-prudent way that winds up inadvertently restricting the economy,’ Mr Bostic said at the European Financial Forum in Dublin on Wednesday” Read more.

WALL STREET SHRUGS OFF BUYBACK WORRIES — Via Bloomberg: “U.S. equities put in their fourth straight session of gains as optimism over trade negotiations countered some of the jitters that Senator Marco Rubio triggered when he announced a bill to tax buybacks on equal footing with dividends.

“Rubio’s tweet Wednesday about his buyback proposal slowed an advance in the S&P 500 Index, but the benchmark still finished higher, even after Netflix dragged on the communication-services sector late in the day. The dollar gained and Treasuries edged lower as data showed U.S. inflation remained contained.” Read more.

SENATORS TRY TO REBUFF TRUMP ON RUSSIA — Reuters: “A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill on Wednesday that would impose stiff new sanctions on Russia over its meddling in U.S. elections and aggression against Ukraine, the latest congressional effort to push … Trump to ratchet up Washington’s response to Moscow.

“It was introduced by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, as well as other members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. It is a tougher version of legislation — dubbed the ‘sanctions bill from hell’ by Graham — the two lawmakers backed last year but which failed to pass.” Read more.

** A message from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association: The insurance industry’s advocacy voice just got much stronger. Following the American Insurance Association (AIA) and Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI) merger, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) made its debut earlier this year.

Our members serve families, communities and companies of all shapes and sizes both here and abroad. The new organization speaks for 60 percent of the U.S. P/C insurance market, bringing an unparalleled footprint and resources to the industry’s advocacy efforts. It also reflects the broad diversity of the united membership and continues both organizations’ strong support for promoting and improving private competitive insurance market solutions and the U.S. state-based regulatory system through effective public policy engagement.

APCIA will serve its members and the industry as a proactive thought leader, with advocacy teams in all 50 states and offices in Chicago, D.C., and state capitals across the country. Visit: apci.org. Follow: @TeamAPCIA. **

Source link

from RSSUnify feed https://hashtaghighways.com/2019/02/15/why-trump-will-probably-sign-the-spending-deal/ from Garko Media https://garkomedia1.tumblr.com/post/182820258804

[nicholerestrada]

Why Trump will (probably) sign the spending deal

Editor’s Note: This edition of Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.

Why Trump will sign the spending deal — All you have to do is look at the latest Gallup poll showing the president’s approval rating rising from 37% to 44% after signing the last deal to end the shutdown. Views of the economy tanked during the shutdown, with just 44% saying conditions were getting better. After the shutdown? 54%.

Story Continued Below

If Trump hopes to win a second term he has to assume his fervent fans will believe whatever he says about the state of the wall (already built, being built, whatever). And he can’t risk his biggest strength – the economy – with shutdowns, trade wars and market sell-offs. This dynamic will be important all year.

Will the debt ever matter? — Neither party right now cares about the national debt, which just broke $22 trillion. Democrats are pushing hard in the opposite direction. And Republicans have largely given up after increasing the deficit with their tax cut. At the moment, there isn’t much reason to care with rates still low and the economy growing.

But what happens when we hit recession? Here was bond king Jeffrey Gundlach to Yahoo Finance on Wednesday: “[T]ypically, the debt-to-GDP ratio goes up about four percentage points during a recession. So it suggests the national debt would grow at around a 10% annual rate if we go into a normal average type of recession. That’s obviously a really big problem.”

By way of reference — Per the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the U.S. debt is now nearly the size of China, Germany and Japan’s economies combined.

** A message from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association: The insurance industry’s advocacy voice just got much stronger. Following the American Insurance Association (AIA) and Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI) merger, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) made its debut earlier this year. The new organization speaks for 60 percent of the U.S. P/C insurance market. **

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Happy Valentine’s Day or whatever. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben.

House expected to vote on the spending package this evening with the Senate to follow on Friday ahead of the deadline … Senate Banking at 10:00 a.m. holds a nominations hearing including on Mark Calabria to head the FHFA …

House Financial Services subcommittee has a hearing at 2:00 p.m. on rural housing … Producer Prices at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent headline and 0.2 percent core … Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent … Top level trade talks take place in Beijing

FIRST LOOK: GSE INSIDER TRADING ALLEGED — Public Citizen and Revolving Door Project today “are sending a letter to the Inspectors General of FHFA & Treasury Thursday calling for them to investigate the recent leaks and unusual stock market movements of the GSEs since Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting took the mantle of Acting FHFA Director.” See the letter here.

DAVID SOLOMON ON INEQUALITY — Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon to CNBC on taxing the rich: “I’m not going to speculate on how the tax law changes and evolves. But I will notice that over many decades, we’ve had very few significant changes in tax policy. We’ve just had one.”

CALABRIA WALKS IT BACK — Our Katy O’Donnell: “Mark Calabria, the White House’s nominee to take over the Federal Housing Finance Agency, will tell lawmakers Thursday that the views he has expressed as an academic would not guide his stewardship of the agency. …

“As an economist at the libertarian CATO Institute, Calabria has questioned the wisdom of both the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and securitization. He is a longtime skeptic of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Calabria will also emphasize his career as a Senate Banking Committee aide, pointing to legislation he worked on before leaving the committee in 2009.” Read more.

THE COST OF CREATING STEEL JOBS WITH TARIFFS — Our Jesse Chase-Lubitz: “Trump promised to revitalize the American steel industry and create jobs, jobs, jobs. Two years into his presidency, tariffs seem to be slowly bringing business back to U.S. companies, and even more slowly, creating jobs. That is coming at a heavy cost, says one analysis.

“Economists say Trump’s tariffs increased the price of steel products by 9 percent. However, steel users will pay an extra $650,000 for each job created, according to a recent study published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.” Read more.

WHEN WALL STREET IS YOUR LANDLORD — Atlantic’s Alana Semuels: “Between 2011 and 2017, some of the world’s largest private-equity groups and hedge funds, as well as other large investors, spent a combined $36 billion on more than 200,000 homes in ailing markets across the country.

“In one Atlanta zip code, they bought almost 90 percent of the 7,500 homes sold between January 2011 and June 2012; today, institutional investors own at least one in five single-family rentals in some parts of the metro area” Read more.

TRANSITIONS: BINYA TO THE EDIT PAGE — Via the NYT: “After nine years of deciphering and describing the economy’s tumult in the newsroom, Binyamin Appelbaum will tell us what he really thinks as he joins the Times editorial board as lead writer on business and economics.” Read more.

TAX REVENUE DROPS; DEFICIT WIDENS — WSJ’s Kate Davidson: “Federal tax revenue declined 0.4% in 2018, the first full calendar year under the new tax law, despite robust economic growth and the lowest unemployment rate in nearly five decades. The Treasury Department said Wednesday federal revenue totaled $3.33 trillion last year, while federal spending totaled $4.2 trillion, a 4.4% increase from the previous year.

“That pushed the U.S. budget gap up to $873 billion for the 12 months that ended in December, compared with $680.8 billion during the same period a year earlier—a 28.2% increase. Last year was the highest deficit for a calendar year since 2012. … A strong economy typically leads to narrower deficits, as rising household income and corporate profits help boost tax collections, while spending on safety-net programs tends to decline.” Read more.

MALPASS’S DAYS AT BEAR — FT’s James Politi: “To his supporters inside and outside the Trump administration, Mr Malpass is the right man for the job: a supply-side economist who will refocus the multilateral lender on helping the world’s poorest countries. …

“But his record as an economist at Bear has attracted criticism, as it has included various controversial prescriptions, visceral criticism of multilateral institutions, particularly the International Monetary Fund, and reassurances about the state of the credit markets even as his own investment bank was unravelling, leading to Bear’s eventual sale to JPMorgan Chase in 2008.” Read more.

FORMER TOP APPLIE EXEC CHARGED WITH INSIDER TRADING — Our Victoria Guida: “The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department … each filed charges against a former top official at Apple, alleging he profited off information about the company’s quarterly earnings before it was made public.

“Gene Daniel Levoff, who was Apple’s global head of corporate law and corporate secretary, traded Apple securities ahead of three earnings announcements in 2015 and 2016, making roughly $382,000, according to the SEC. For example, he avoided $345,000 in losses by selling $10 million in the company’s stock just before he knew Apple was set to disappoint on its iPhone sales, the complaint alleges.” Read more.

FED OFFICIAL: DON’T SLOW GROWTH — FT’s Sam Fleming: “The Federal Reserve needs to avoid inadvertently crimping US growth given rising nervousness among businesses about the outlook at home and abroad, a senior policymaker said.

“Raphael Bostic, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said there had been a marked change in corporations’ mood since a year ago, as executives digest hazards including trade tensions and slowing growth in Europe and China. ‘It is important that we do not go too fast and act in a non-prudent way that winds up inadvertently restricting the economy,’ Mr Bostic said at the European Financial Forum in Dublin on Wednesday” Read more.

WALL STREET SHRUGS OFF BUYBACK WORRIES — Via Bloomberg: “U.S. equities put in their fourth straight session of gains as optimism over trade negotiations countered some of the jitters that Senator Marco Rubio triggered when he announced a bill to tax buybacks on equal footing with dividends.

“Rubio’s tweet Wednesday about his buyback proposal slowed an advance in the S&P 500 Index, but the benchmark still finished higher, even after Netflix dragged on the communication-services sector late in the day. The dollar gained and Treasuries edged lower as data showed U.S. inflation remained contained.” Read more.

SENATORS TRY TO REBUFF TRUMP ON RUSSIA — Reuters: “A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill on Wednesday that would impose stiff new sanctions on Russia over its meddling in U.S. elections and aggression against Ukraine, the latest congressional effort to push … Trump to ratchet up Washington’s response to Moscow.

“It was introduced by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, as well as other members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. It is a tougher version of legislation — dubbed the ‘sanctions bill from hell’ by Graham — the two lawmakers backed last year but which failed to pass.” Read more.

** A message from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association: The insurance industry’s advocacy voice just got much stronger. Following the American Insurance Association (AIA) and Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI) merger, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) made its debut earlier this year.

Our members serve families, communities and companies of all shapes and sizes both here and abroad. The new organization speaks for 60 percent of the U.S. P/C insurance market, bringing an unparalleled footprint and resources to the industry’s advocacy efforts. It also reflects the broad diversity of the united membership and continues both organizations’ strong support for promoting and improving private competitive insurance market solutions and the U.S. state-based regulatory system through effective public policy engagement.

APCIA will serve its members and the industry as a proactive thought leader, with advocacy teams in all 50 states and offices in Chicago, D.C., and state capitals across the country. Visit: apci.org. Follow: @TeamAPCIA. **

Source link

Source: https://hashtaghighways.com/2019/02/15/why-trump-will-probably-sign-the-spending-deal/

from Garko Media https://garkomedia1.wordpress.com/2019/02/15/why-trump-will-probably-sign-the-spending-deal/

[garkomedia1]

Why Trump will (probably) sign the spending deal

Editor’s Note: This edition of Morning Money is published weekdays at 8 a.m. POLITICO Pro Financial Services subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 5:15 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro’s comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.

Why Trump will sign the spending deal — All you have to do is look at the latest Gallup poll showing the president’s approval rating rising from 37% to 44% after signing the last deal to end the shutdown. Views of the economy tanked during the shutdown, with just 44% saying conditions were getting better. After the shutdown? 54%.

Story Continued Below

If Trump hopes to win a second term he has to assume his fervent fans will believe whatever he says about the state of the wall (already built, being built, whatever). And he can’t risk his biggest strength – the economy – with shutdowns, trade wars and market sell-offs. This dynamic will be important all year.

Will the debt ever matter? — Neither party right now cares about the national debt, which just broke $22 trillion. Democrats are pushing hard in the opposite direction. And Republicans have largely given up after increasing the deficit with their tax cut. At the moment, there isn’t much reason to care with rates still low and the economy growing.

But what happens when we hit recession? Here was bond king Jeffrey Gundlach to Yahoo Finance on Wednesday: “[T]ypically, the debt-to-GDP ratio goes up about four percentage points during a recession. So it suggests the national debt would grow at around a 10% annual rate if we go into a normal average type of recession. That’s obviously a really big problem.”

By way of reference — Per the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the U.S. debt is now nearly the size of China, Germany and Japan’s economies combined.

** A message from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association: The insurance industry’s advocacy voice just got much stronger. Following the American Insurance Association (AIA) and Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI) merger, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) made its debut earlier this year. The new organization speaks for 60 percent of the U.S. P/C insurance market. **

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Happy Valentine’s Day or whatever. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben.

House expected to vote on the spending package this evening with the Senate to follow on Friday ahead of the deadline … Senate Banking at 10:00 a.m. holds a nominations hearing including on Mark Calabria to head the FHFA …

House Financial Services subcommittee has a hearing at 2:00 p.m. on rural housing … Producer Prices at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent headline and 0.2 percent core … Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1 percent … Top level trade talks take place in Beijing

FIRST LOOK: GSE INSIDER TRADING ALLEGED — Public Citizen and Revolving Door Project today “are sending a letter to the Inspectors General of FHFA & Treasury Thursday calling for them to investigate the recent leaks and unusual stock market movements of the GSEs since Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting took the mantle of Acting FHFA Director.” See the letter here.

DAVID SOLOMON ON INEQUALITY — Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon to CNBC on taxing the rich: “I’m not going to speculate on how the tax law changes and evolves. But I will notice that over many decades, we’ve had very few significant changes in tax policy. We’ve just had one.”

CALABRIA WALKS IT BACK — Our Katy O’Donnell: “Mark Calabria, the White House’s nominee to take over the Federal Housing Finance Agency, will tell lawmakers Thursday that the views he has expressed as an academic would not guide his stewardship of the agency. …

“As an economist at the libertarian CATO Institute, Calabria has questioned the wisdom of both the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and securitization. He is a longtime skeptic of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Calabria will also emphasize his career as a Senate Banking Committee aide, pointing to legislation he worked on before leaving the committee in 2009.” Read more.

THE COST OF CREATING STEEL JOBS WITH TARIFFS — Our Jesse Chase-Lubitz: “Trump promised to revitalize the American steel industry and create jobs, jobs, jobs. Two years into his presidency, tariffs seem to be slowly bringing business back to U.S. companies, and even more slowly, creating jobs. That is coming at a heavy cost, says one analysis.

“Economists say Trump’s tariffs increased the price of steel products by 9 percent. However, steel users will pay an extra $650,000 for each job created, according to a recent study published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.” Read more.

WHEN WALL STREET IS YOUR LANDLORD — Atlantic’s Alana Semuels: “Between 2011 and 2017, some of the world’s largest private-equity groups and hedge funds, as well as other large investors, spent a combined $36 billion on more than 200,000 homes in ailing markets across the country.

“In one Atlanta zip code, they bought almost 90 percent of the 7,500 homes sold between January 2011 and June 2012; today, institutional investors own at least one in five single-family rentals in some parts of the metro area” Read more.

TRANSITIONS: BINYA TO THE EDIT PAGE — Via the NYT: “After nine years of deciphering and describing the economy’s tumult in the newsroom, Binyamin Appelbaum will tell us what he really thinks as he joins the Times editorial board as lead writer on business and economics.” Read more.

TAX REVENUE DROPS; DEFICIT WIDENS — WSJ’s Kate Davidson: “Federal tax revenue declined 0.4% in 2018, the first full calendar year under the new tax law, despite robust economic growth and the lowest unemployment rate in nearly five decades. The Treasury Department said Wednesday federal revenue totaled $3.33 trillion last year, while federal spending totaled $4.2 trillion, a 4.4% increase from the previous year.

“That pushed the U.S. budget gap up to $873 billion for the 12 months that ended in December, compared with $680.8 billion during the same period a year earlier—a 28.2% increase. Last year was the highest deficit for a calendar year since 2012. … A strong economy typically leads to narrower deficits, as rising household income and corporate profits help boost tax collections, while spending on safety-net programs tends to decline.” Read more.

MALPASS’S DAYS AT BEAR — FT’s James Politi: “To his supporters inside and outside the Trump administration, Mr Malpass is the right man for the job: a supply-side economist who will refocus the multilateral lender on helping the world’s poorest countries. …

“But his record as an economist at Bear has attracted criticism, as it has included various controversial prescriptions, visceral criticism of multilateral institutions, particularly the International Monetary Fund, and reassurances about the state of the credit markets even as his own investment bank was unravelling, leading to Bear’s eventual sale to JPMorgan Chase in 2008.” Read more.

FORMER TOP APPLIE EXEC CHARGED WITH INSIDER TRADING — Our Victoria Guida: “The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department … each filed charges against a former top official at Apple, alleging he profited off information about the company’s quarterly earnings before it was made public.

“Gene Daniel Levoff, who was Apple’s global head of corporate law and corporate secretary, traded Apple securities ahead of three earnings announcements in 2015 and 2016, making roughly $382,000, according to the SEC. For example, he avoided $345,000 in losses by selling $10 million in the company’s stock just before he knew Apple was set to disappoint on its iPhone sales, the complaint alleges.” Read more.

FED OFFICIAL: DON’T SLOW GROWTH — FT’s Sam Fleming: “The Federal Reserve needs to avoid inadvertently crimping US growth given rising nervousness among businesses about the outlook at home and abroad, a senior policymaker said.

“Raphael Bostic, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said there had been a marked change in corporations’ mood since a year ago, as executives digest hazards including trade tensions and slowing growth in Europe and China. ‘It is important that we do not go too fast and act in a non-prudent way that winds up inadvertently restricting the economy,’ Mr Bostic said at the European Financial Forum in Dublin on Wednesday” Read more.

WALL STREET SHRUGS OFF BUYBACK WORRIES — Via Bloomberg: “U.S. equities put in their fourth straight session of gains as optimism over trade negotiations countered some of the jitters that Senator Marco Rubio triggered when he announced a bill to tax buybacks on equal footing with dividends.

“Rubio’s tweet Wednesday about his buyback proposal slowed an advance in the S&P 500 Index, but the benchmark still finished higher, even after Netflix dragged on the communication-services sector late in the day. The dollar gained and Treasuries edged lower as data showed U.S. inflation remained contained.” Read more.

SENATORS TRY TO REBUFF TRUMP ON RUSSIA — Reuters: “A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill on Wednesday that would impose stiff new sanctions on Russia over its meddling in U.S. elections and aggression against Ukraine, the latest congressional effort to push … Trump to ratchet up Washington’s response to Moscow.

“It was introduced by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, as well as other members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. It is a tougher version of legislation — dubbed the ‘sanctions bill from hell’ by Graham — the two lawmakers backed last year but which failed to pass.” Read more.

** A message from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association: The insurance industry’s advocacy voice just got much stronger. Following the American Insurance Association (AIA) and Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI) merger, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) made its debut earlier this year.

Our members serve families, communities and companies of all shapes and sizes both here and abroad. The new organization speaks for 60 percent of the U.S. P/C insurance market, bringing an unparalleled footprint and resources to the industry’s advocacy efforts. It also reflects the broad diversity of the united membership and continues both organizations’ strong support for promoting and improving private competitive insurance market solutions and the U.S. state-based regulatory system through effective public policy engagement.

APCIA will serve its members and the industry as a proactive thought leader, with advocacy teams in all 50 states and offices in Chicago, D.C., and state capitals across the country. Visit: apci.org. Follow: @TeamAPCIA. **

Source link

from RSSUnify feed https://hashtaghighways.com/2019/02/15/why-trump-will-probably-sign-the-spending-deal/

[williamsjoan]

Nyca Partners’ Hans Morris hunts for great fintech investments amid volatility

Hans Morris is a name to know in fintech, and as finance and tech sectors prepare for tougher time next year, he has some incisive thoughts to share about the kinds of companies that will succeed (or not) in a financial downturn. The managing partner of investment firm Nyca Partners, Morris also serves as the chairman of the board of Lending Club and is a director of other start-ups including AvidXchange, Boomtown, Payoneer and SigFig. At Nyca, which is on its third fund, Morris spends much of his time meeting with entrepreneurs focused on payments, credit models, digital advice and financial infrastructure.

But unlike many successful fintech VCs, Morris doesn’t have to read about how Wall Street’s history influenced the trajectory of those sectors. He played an active role in shaping them. His experiences — heading Smith Barney’s FIG effort (at 29 years old), overseeing Citigroup’s institutional businesses, serving as president of Visa and advising companies at General Atlantic — have also provided him with an unparalleled financial services rolodex. And for those who believe that financial history rhymes, Morris’ opinions are now especially welcome. Fintech may be entering a new, post-financial crisis phase in which the low-hanging fruit has been picked and macro headwinds outweigh tailwinds. In the discussion below, Morris talks candidly about how he’s approaching investing next year and how he’s viewing fintech M&A possibilities. He was also eager to share his thoughts on ethics in financial services (a favorite topic), the prospects for challenger banks, why he’s branched out into real estate tech, the future of blockchain and some of his favorite bank CEOs.

Gregg Schoenberg: Hans, it’s always good to see you, but I’m especially glad to be sitting down with you now, given that the financial world is convulsing at the moment. Before we get into that, though, I want to kick off with something else: Do you buy into the idea of techfin vs. fintech?

Hans Morris: I don’t. My basic organizing principle, which you and I have discussed before, is around declining information costs. As these costs decline, it disrupts the traditional profit pools in financial services. It’s always been like that. What I would say is that in recent times, some tech companies have done a very good job at building a trusted relationship with consumers, and in some cases with businesses. That trusted relationship obviously provides a significant competitive advantage of information. But that advantage lessens later on. There are so many examples we could point to of companies that were ‘it.’ Then, suddenly, they say, ‘Oh no, our tech is expensive, creates a bad experience and will cost a lot to fix.’

GS: Let’s talk about the present. As you know, the Fed has been tightening, equities are hemorrhaging, the yield curve is getting spooky and talk of a recession is intensifying. To me, Lending Club, right or wrong, was one of the original poster children of the post-crisis fintech boom. But now, I think we’re in a regime change and that the next crop of successful financial innovators will look a lot different. What’s in store for an area like credit delivery?

HM: In credit delivery, I think it’s now pretty well-realized by investors, and certainly realized by capital markets investors, that credit delivery requires capital. So today, I feel that anyone who’s going to be successful in credit intermediation needs to have a very good understanding of balance sheet risk, liquidity risk, and capital requirements. I pay a lot of attention to capital requirements, and the ability to fund something in the teeth of a crisis.

GS: Let’s say we enter a recession next year and see continued volatility across the capital markets. I understand that each recession and bear market is different, but with the fresh capital you’ve closed on, where are you looking to go on offense?

HM: Among the thousands of fintech companies that have gotten some funding, there are companies that are really struggling to get their Series B or Series C done.

GS: Names that have lost their momentum?

HM: Yes. They’ve lost their momentum, and they’ve lost the perception of momentum among venture investors. But in some cases, these companies still possess some very good fundamentals, yet the valuations are a lot more attractive. If that dynamic becomes even more extreme, I think there could be some good opportunities.

GS: Isn’t it also true that the fintech names that suck up a lot of the venture money aren’t always the best underlying businesses?

So when you talk about high-valuation companies, I think it’s unrealistic for banks to be acquirers.

HM: It’s an interesting dynamic. Generally, as long as companies can continue to raise capital, they will keep going even if that isn’t necessarily a rational thing to do. But in some cases, where you see a bunch of companies pursuing a similar strategy, it would be better to pursue a merger because we don’t need tons of companies doing personal financial management, etc…

GS: Do you see the big banks with strong balance sheets, the JP Morgans of the world, getting the green light from regulators to be more aggressive in M&A?

HM: Regulators have clearly been one reason there hasn’t been more activity. The second thing is goodwill. Keep in mind that for a bank, goodwill is a 100% reduction to tangible Tier One capital. So even for JP Morgan to say, ‘We’ll take a billion dollars of our Tier One capital and invest it in a company with no income and maybe positive EBITDA, but maybe not—

GS: —That would take a ton of capital or a ton of conviction.

HM: Well, that company would have to be a very powerful growth engine or solution. So when you talk about high-valuation companies, I think it’s unrealistic for banks to be acquirers. Where banks can be acquirers, and this is what we’ve seen, is where you have a company valued at $60 million, maybe a $100 million, etc…

GS: A Clarity Money.

HM: Yes, a company where the acquisition moves a bank much further along in a development cycle. Where the the bank can say, “Instead of us taking two years to get our real product out, we can get out a state-of-the-art product right now, and it comes with a great team and DNA. That’s appealing.

GS: Appealing, but realistic?

HM: It’s hard to pull off. Often, the team leaves, everything dissipates, and the acquirer ends up writing off the whole thing.

GS: Moving forward, who do you think is poised to make M&A work?

HM: There’s a couple of examples where it’s worked. One is PayPal, which in recent times has done an excellent job of acquiring things and integrating talent into the company. I’m quite impressed in terms of how Bill Ready, who is now COO, Dan Shulman and the management team have changed the tech profile of PayPal.

GS: Well, they’re not a 200-year-old financial institution founded on a winding alley in downtown New York.

HM: Yes, but it was very old-school Silicon Valley, and they had a lot of technical debt. Of course, they had this great mafia 20 years ago, but all those people are gone. I don’t think there’s a single person in the top 100 at PayPal that was there 15 years ago.

GS: Let’s talk specific themes. You’ve already mentioned personal financial management, which I share your skepticism about. What’s your take on the prospects for challenger banks?

HM: I think we’re likely to have a war for deposits with too many different types of firms competing for deposits. Just look at the United States last year. All of the deposit growth we saw was explained by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan Chase. Everyone else shrank. But if you have Monzo and Revolut come to the US and you look at Acorns, MoneyLion, Chime and fifteen other prepaid models or fully chartered bank models, they’re all going to have a pretty slick interface, and they’re all going to be out there competing for deposits.  

GS: How about the robos and free trading platforms?  As you know, a lot of the younger customers on these platforms haven’t experienced a sustained period of tumultuous equity market conditions.  

I pay a lot of attention to capital requirements, and the ability to fund something in the teeth of a crisis.

HM: I think a great majority of American households should be using a roboadvisor. However, the question is around the relationship between the customer acquisition and the revenue opportunity. In fact, a big part of our thesis with SigFig was to really help drive the pivot over to enterprise-based customers. But generally, and without knowing the details, my sense is that Betterment, Wealthfront and maybe Personal Capital have enough brand to get to the scale necessary to be self-sufficient. I think most of the others are not in that position.

GS: Turning to the mortgage and broader real estate sector, is your view that even if we have a deepening downdraft in housing, the real estate start-ups backed by you and others can do well anyway? Because they are essentially taking an industry stuck in the 1980s and ’90s and dragging it into the modern era.

HM: There’s a lot of room for tech improvement in real estate, and that includes residential real estate as well as institutional real estate. The problem with real estate, and mortgage-related models, is that the capital needs are also significant. So if you end up owning property, the bill adds up very quickly.

GS: I guess it depends on where a company buys them.

HM: True. Look, we remain bullish on them, but I share your concern that if activity stops or if you start having real decreases in property values in certain sectors, some of these companies may end up holding the bag.  

GS: When I saw the Ribbon deal, I was wondering how you and other backers looked at the opportunity at this point in the cycle.

HM: Well, for one thing, you can estimate the likelihood of someone getting a mortgage pretty efficiently. You can be right 99 percent of the time, but even if you’re only right 90 percent of the time, you’re going to be fine. That’s because the certainty that the company offers to the customer is worth it. They also have a great management team and a CEO who is really smart. They’re not naive.

GS: So given all the hype and ups and downs we’ve seen in blockchain, I’m wondering if you remain a long-term blockchain guy.

HM: Here’s the simple fact: The whole financial services industry is composed of ledgers. The reconciliation between entities of that information is a significant expense, particularly in the capital markets businesses. But I don’t buy into the view that it’s going to work better in all cases. The evidence so far is that it works well in some cases.

GS: Where can it work well?

HM: Distributed ledgers can work well when having synchronous data is an essential attribute, and when speed is not necessarily a central attribute.

GS: So, even if the implementation takes longer than the the hype machine suggested it would, financial institutions will get there?

Because money attracts crooks.

HM: They will get there. The cost of change is very, very high. The benefit of it is real. The question is, ‘How’s that cost of change compare to the ongoing benefit?’ In enterprise applications, the ones that will succeed are not ones where you say, ‘Lets rebuild everything within the core functions,’ because the cost and complexity are too great. The much better way is to start at the edge of an enterprise delivering immediate value, and then become an architecture for more things to move over to that.

GS: It’s easier said than done…

HM: If you take the capital markets area, I think it often requires an individual who has a bigger-than-life personality and the leadership skills to match it.

GS: Speaking of leadership, let’s talk about that within the context of fintech, where, as you know, we’ve seen mixed outcomes. You and I have talked a fair bit about how fintech isn’t like other tech sectors, because you’re dealing with money and livelihoods.

HM: Yes, and the activities are regulated, for a very good reason.

GS: When you look at a deal, does the character of the leader trump everything else?

HM: I’d say that the character and capabilities of a leader make a big difference. And to me, in financial services, the errors made, whether it’s 10 years ago or today, are similar. I mean, you have to tell the truth. You have to.

GS: Why is it so important to you?

HM: Because money attracts crooks.

GS: On that note, when I look at some of those who subscribe to the whole blitzscaling ethos, I see it as incompatible with our current climate and especially problematic to financial services. Blitzscaling doesn’t endorse breaking the law, of course, but this whole idea of consciously letting fires burn is a recipe for disaster in today’s financial services sector, right?

HM: Yes, I think so. I’d add that we have a rule in our firm: Don’t invest in any business model where you’re tricking the customer into a profitable relationship. But unfortunately, I feel that there are many business models that do just that.

GS: That’s a bold rule given that terms of services agreements remain dark dens of iniquity.

HM: Well, it’s more than just that. Look at Robinhood. I think it’s a remarkable company made up of unbelievable entrepreneurs. But I do feel that if you say, ‘Payment for order flow is the business model,’ or ‘Margin lending is the business model,’ you’ve got to spell that out. I mean, ‘payment for order flow?’ Most people would be like, ‘What does that mean?’

GS: You might as well be speaking in Ancient Greek.

A VC once said to me that we have too much knowledge about some things. I think there’s some truth to that.

HM: Exactly. I feel, in financial services, the best companies, the most successful long-run stories, will do the right thing for their customers, always. That also means not making a high-profile release of a new product, like a high-interest checking and savings account yielding way above anyone else, before you’ve actually checked with the regulators.

GS: On that latter reference, how accountable is Robinhood’s board for the company’s recent blunder?

HM: I honestly don’t know in what way the board was involved in this, but I think it’s a good example of where a board should put the brakes on an idea until the risks are clear. Sometimes management teams, and investors, don’t want to hear that, but it’s an essential role for financial services companies.

GS: In your career, you have seen your fair share of financial icons rise and fall. Have you ever passed on a deal that wound up being a huge success because something didn’t smell right?

HM: Yes, we have passed on things that turned out to be really good investments, but that’s part of our equation.

GS: In 1997, Howard Marks—

HM: —He’s fantastic, isn’t he?

GS: He’s phenomenal. In one of his famous memos, he asked ‘Are you an investor? Or are you a speculator?’ Given that there are quite a few VCs who have come to fintech in recent years, I’m wondering if you see a lot of speculators.

HM: Most of the folks that I interact with are investors, not speculators. The crypto stuff is pure speculation by almost everybody.

GS: Yes. I wasn’t implying that we discuss crypto.

HM: To the core of your question, I’ll tell you this: There’s this very, very successful VC investor I had a debate with over a deal. My point was that the company in question would need to raise a lot of capital to scale. But that long-term consideration wasn’t especially relevant to him, because he felt the company would have options down the road. We passed on the deal, but now, I look back and regret that decision.

GS: Are you suggesting that you could benefit from having a little more of a speculative instinct?

HM: A VC once said to me that we have too much knowledge about some things. I think there’s some truth to that.

GS: I’m sure that your institutional knowledge has been an important asset on many other occasions. I’ll move on to our last topic, Hans, because I know you have a fund to manage. You know all of the big bank CEOs, right?

HM: Yes.

GS: There’s Jamie Dimon, who defies easy description. At Goldman, you’ve got a banker as CEO. At Morgan Stanley, you’ve got an ex-management consultant. At Citibank, you’ve got—

HM: —You’ve got Corbat. Michael is just an excellent manager who gets things fixed. It’s interesting: Jamie is a fantastic manager of people too, but Jamie brings in his team. Corbat is very good at taking on an existing team and just making them better. Brian [Moynihan] is also really good. I mean he was a lawyer, and when he got the job, I had no idea what he was like. But I’ve noticed that the people who have worked for him are really loyal.

GS: I think the CEOs of the big banks tend to be a reflection of the times in which they operate, right? We went through the period of the trader CEO, which is now gone. As you look down the road, what are the heads of the big banks going to look like?

HM: I’ll answer that question by turning you to Microsoft. What explains the turnaround there? Is it because Satya [Nadella] is such an amazing engineer? No; he’s a great people person. He’s a fantastic manager who put in place a high-quality decision process, which is key to managing a complex organization.

GS: Implicit in my question is whether or not these organizations are going to be as big and complex as they are now. Specifically, I’m referring to the supermarket model that you were involved in helping to construct. Does that remain in place?

HM: Keep in mind that liquidity is a very, very important aspect of a financial marketplace, and having access to core liquidity that doesn’t change frequently is very important. The professional money obviously switches very quickly. But things like core deposits, pension flows and corporate cash tend to have the longest time-frames to build access to. But when a bank has access to deposits that don’t move much, it enables it to fund the liquid financial assets. That’s so important for when you hit a liquidity crisis.  

GS: So the big bank model is here to stay?

HM: Yes, I think it’s going to be around for a long time.

GS: Well on that note, Hans, I wish you luck in navigating whatever the future brings. Thanks for sitting down with me and sharing your wisdom.

HM: It’s always a pleasure speaking to you, Gregg. Thank you as well.

This interview has been edited for content, length and clarity.

Nyca Partners’ Hans Morris hunts for great fintech investments amid volatility published first on https://timloewe.tumblr.com/

[cryptswahili]

Nyca Partners’ Hans Morris hunts for great fintech investments amid volatility

Hans Morris is a name to know in fintech, and as finance and tech sectors prepare for tougher time next year, he has some incisive thoughts to share about the kinds of companies that will succeed (or not) in a financial downturn. The managing partner of investment firm Nyca Partners, Morris also serves as the chairman of the board of Lending Club and is a director of other start-ups including AvidXchange, Boomtown, Payoneer and SigFig. At Nyca, which is on its third fund, Morris spends much of his time meeting with entrepreneurs focused on payments, credit models, digital advice and financial infrastructure.

But unlike many successful fintech VCs, Morris doesn’t have to read about how Wall Street’s history influenced the trajectory of those sectors. He played an active role in shaping them. His experiences — heading Smith Barney’s FIG effort (at 29 years old), overseeing Citigroup’s institutional businesses, serving as president of Visa and advising companies at General Atlantic — have also provided him with an unparalleled financial services rolodex. And for those who believe that financial history rhymes, Morris’ opinions are now especially welcome. Fintech may be entering a new, post-financial crisis phase in which the low-hanging fruit has been picked and macro headwinds outweigh tailwinds. In the discussion below, Morris talks candidly about how he’s approaching investing next year and how he’s viewing fintech M&A possibilities. He was also eager to share his thoughts on ethics in financial services (a favorite topic), the prospects for challenger banks, why he’s branched out into real estate tech, the future of blockchain and some of his favorite bank CEOs.

Gregg Schoenberg: Hans, it’s always good to see you, but I’m especially glad to be sitting down with you now, given that the financial world is convulsing at the moment. Before we get into that, though, I want to kick off with something else: Do you buy into the idea of techfin vs. fintech?

Hans Morris: I don’t. My basic organizing principle, which you and I have discussed before, is around declining information costs. As these costs decline, it disrupts the traditional profit pools in financial services. It’s always been like that. What I would say is that in recent times, some tech companies have done a very good job at building a trusted relationship with consumers, and in some cases with businesses. That trusted relationship obviously provides a significant competitive advantage of information. But that advantage lessens later on. There are so many examples we could point to of companies that were ‘it.’ Then, suddenly, they say, ‘Oh no, our tech is expensive, creates a bad experience and will cost a lot to fix.’

GS: Let’s talk about the present. As you know, the Fed has been tightening, equities are hemorrhaging, the yield curve is getting spooky and talk of a recession is intensifying. To me, Lending Club, right or wrong, was one of the original poster children of the post-crisis fintech boom. But now, I think we’re in a regime change and that the next crop of successful financial innovators will look a lot different. What’s in store for an area like credit delivery?

HM: In credit delivery, I think it’s now pretty well-realized by investors, and certainly realized by capital markets investors, that credit delivery requires capital. So today, I feel that anyone who’s going to be successful in credit intermediation needs to have a very good understanding of balance sheet risk, liquidity risk, and capital requirements. I pay a lot of attention to capital requirements, and the ability to fund something in the teeth of a crisis.

GS: Let’s say we enter a recession next year and see continued volatility across the capital markets. I understand that each recession and bear market is different, but with the fresh capital you’ve closed on, where are you looking to go on offense?

HM: Among the thousands of fintech companies that have gotten some funding, there are companies that are really struggling to get their Series B or Series C done.

GS: Names that have lost their momentum?

HM: Yes. They’ve lost their momentum, and they’ve lost the perception of momentum among venture investors. But in some cases, these companies still possess some very good fundamentals, yet the valuations are a lot more attractive. If that dynamic becomes even more extreme, I think there could be some good opportunities.

GS: Isn’t it also true that the fintech names that suck up a lot of the venture money aren’t always the best underlying businesses?

So when you talk about high-valuation companies, I think it’s unrealistic for banks to be acquirers.

HM: It’s an interesting dynamic. Generally, as long as companies can continue to raise capital, they will keep going even if that isn’t necessarily a rational thing to do. But in some cases, where you see a bunch of companies pursuing a similar strategy, it would be better to pursue a merger because we don’t need tons of companies doing personal financial management, etc…

GS: Do you see the big banks with strong balance sheets, the JP Morgans of the world, getting the green light from regulators to be more aggressive in M&A?

HM: Regulators have clearly been one reason there hasn’t been more activity. The second thing is goodwill. Keep in mind that for a bank, goodwill is a 100% reduction to tangible Tier One capital. So even for JP Morgan to say, ‘We’ll take a billion dollars of our Tier One capital and invest it in a company with no income and maybe positive EBITDA, but maybe not—

GS: —That would take a ton of capital or a ton of conviction.

HM: Well, that company would have to be a very powerful growth engine or solution. So when you talk about high-valuation companies, I think it’s unrealistic for banks to be acquirers. Where banks can be acquirers, and this is what we’ve seen, is where you have a company valued at $60 million, maybe a $100 million, etc…

GS: A Clarity Money.

HM: Yes, a company where the acquisition moves a bank much further along in a development cycle. Where the the bank can say, “Instead of us taking two years to get our real product out, we can get out a state-of-the-art product right now, and it comes with a great team and DNA. That’s appealing.

GS: Appealing, but realistic?

HM: It’s hard to pull off. Often, the team leaves, everything dissipates, and the acquirer ends up writing off the whole thing.

GS: Moving forward, who do you think is poised to make M&A work?

HM: There’s a couple of examples where it’s worked. One is PayPal, which in recent times has done an excellent job of acquiring things and integrating talent into the company. I’m quite impressed in terms of how Bill Ready, who is now COO, Dan Shulman and the management team have changed the tech profile of PayPal.

GS: Well, they’re not a 200-year-old financial institution founded on a winding alley in downtown New York.

HM: Yes, but it was very old-school Silicon Valley, and they had a lot of technical debt. Of course, they had this great mafia 20 years ago, but all those people are gone. I don’t think there’s a single person in the top 100 at PayPal that was there 15 years ago.

GS: Let’s talk specific themes. You’ve already mentioned personal financial management, which I share your skepticism about. What’s your take on the prospects for challenger banks?

HM: I think we’re likely to have a war for deposits with too many different types of firms competing for deposits. Just look at the United States last year. All of the deposit growth we saw was explained by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan Chase. Everyone else shrank. But if you have Monzo and Revolut come to the US and you look at Acorns, MoneyLion, Chime and fifteen other prepaid models or fully chartered bank models, they’re all going to have a pretty slick interface, and they’re all going to be out there competing for deposits.  

GS: How about the robos and free trading platforms?  As you know, a lot of the younger customers on these platforms haven’t experienced a sustained period of tumultuous equity market conditions.  

I pay a lot of attention to capital requirements, and the ability to fund something in the teeth of a crisis.

HM: I think a great majority of American households should be using a roboadvisor. However, the question is around the relationship between the customer acquisition and the revenue opportunity. In fact, a big part of our thesis with SigFig was to really help drive the pivot over to enterprise-based customers. But generally, and without knowing the details, my sense is that Betterment, Wealthfront and maybe Personal Capital have enough brand to get to the scale necessary to be self-sufficient. I think most of the others are not in that position.

GS: Turning to the mortgage and broader real estate sector, is your view that even if we have a deepening downdraft in housing, the real estate start-ups backed by you and others can do well anyway? Because they are essentially taking an industry stuck in the 1980s and ’90s and dragging it into the modern era.

HM: There’s a lot of room for tech improvement in real estate, and that includes residential real estate as well as institutional real estate. The problem with real estate, and mortgage-related models, is that the capital needs are also significant. So if you end up owning property, the bill adds up very quickly.

GS: I guess it depends on where a company buys them.

HM: True. Look, we remain bullish on them, but I share your concern that if activity stops or if you start having real decreases in property values in certain sectors, some of these companies may end up holding the bag.  

GS: When I saw the Ribbon deal, I was wondering how you and other backers looked at the opportunity at this point in the cycle.

HM: Well, for one thing, you can estimate the likelihood of someone getting a mortgage pretty efficiently. You can be right 99 percent of the time, but even if you’re only right 90 percent of the time, you’re going to be fine. That’s because the certainty that the company offers to the customer is worth it. They also have a great management team and a CEO who is really smart. They’re not naive.

GS: So given all the hype and ups and downs we’ve seen in blockchain, I’m wondering if you remain a long-term blockchain guy.

HM: Here’s the simple fact: The whole financial services industry is composed of ledgers. The reconciliation between entities of that information is a significant expense, particularly in the capital markets businesses. But I don’t buy into the view that it’s going to work better in all cases. The evidence so far is that it works well in some cases.

GS: Where can it work well?

HM: Distributed ledgers can work well when having synchronous data is an essential attribute, and when speed is not necessarily a central attribute.

GS: So, even if the implementation takes longer than the the hype machine suggested it would, financial institutions will get there?

Because money attracts crooks.

HM: They will get there. The cost of change is very, very high. The benefit of it is real. The question is, ‘How’s that cost of change compare to the ongoing benefit?’ In enterprise applications, the ones that will succeed are not ones where you say, ‘Lets rebuild everything within the core functions,’ because the cost and complexity are too great. The much better way is to start at the edge of an enterprise delivering immediate value, and then become an architecture for more things to move over to that.

GS: It’s easier said than done…

HM: If you take the capital markets area, I think it often requires an individual who has a bigger-than-life personality and the leadership skills to match it.

GS: Speaking of leadership, let’s talk about that within the context of fintech, where, as you know, we’ve seen mixed outcomes. You and I have talked a fair bit about how fintech isn’t like other tech sectors, because you’re dealing with money and livelihoods.

HM: Yes, and the activities are regulated, for a very good reason.

GS: When you look at a deal, does the character of the leader trump everything else?

HM: I’d say that the character and capabilities of a leader make a big difference. And to me, in financial services, the errors made, whether it’s 10 years ago or today, are similar. I mean, you have to tell the truth. You have to.

GS: Why is it so important to you?

HM: Because money attracts crooks.

GS: On that note, when I look at some of those who subscribe to the whole blitzscaling ethos, I see it as incompatible with our current climate and especially problematic to financial services. Blitzscaling doesn’t endorse breaking the law, of course, but this whole idea of consciously letting fires burn is a recipe for disaster in today’s financial services sector, right?

HM: Yes, I think so. I’d add that we have a rule in our firm: Don’t invest in any business model where you’re tricking the customer into a profitable relationship. But unfortunately, I feel that there are many business models that do just that.

GS: That’s a bold rule given that terms of services agreements remain dark dens of iniquity.

HM: Well, it’s more than just that. Look at Robinhood. I think it’s a remarkable company made up of unbelievable entrepreneurs. But I do feel that if you say, ‘Payment for order flow is the business model,’ or ‘Margin lending is the business model,’ you’ve got to spell that out. I mean, ‘payment for order flow?’ Most people would be like, ‘What does that mean?’

GS: You might as well be speaking in Ancient Greek.

A VC once said to me that we have too much knowledge about some things. I think there’s some truth to that.

HM: Exactly. I feel, in financial services, the best companies, the most successful long-run stories, will do the right thing for their customers, always. That also means not making a high-profile release of a new product, like a high-interest checking and savings account yielding way above anyone else, before you’ve actually checked with the regulators.

GS: On that latter reference, how accountable is Robinhood’s board for the company’s recent blunder?

HM: I honestly don’t know in what way the board was involved in this, but I think it’s a good example of where a board should put the brakes on an idea until the risks are clear. Sometimes management teams, and investors, don’t want to hear that, but it’s an essential role for financial services companies.

GS: In your career, you have seen your fair share of financial icons rise and fall. Have you ever passed on a deal that wound up being a huge success because something didn’t smell right?

HM: Yes, we have passed on things that turned out to be really good investments, but that’s part of our equation.

GS: In 1997, Howard Marks—

HM: —He’s fantastic, isn’t he?

GS: He’s phenomenal. In one of his famous memos, he asked ‘Are you an investor? Or are you a speculator?’ Given that there are quite a few VCs who have come to fintech in recent years, I’m wondering if you see a lot of speculators.

HM: Most of the folks that I interact with are investors, not speculators. The crypto stuff is pure speculation by almost everybody.

GS: Yes. I wasn’t implying that we discuss crypto.

HM: To the core of your question, I’ll tell you this: There’s this very, very successful VC investor I had a debate with over a deal. My point was that the company in question would need to raise a lot of capital to scale. But that long-term consideration wasn’t especially relevant to him, because he felt the company would have options down the road. We passed on the deal, but now, I look back and regret that decision.

GS: Are you suggesting that you could benefit from having a little more of a speculative instinct?

HM: A VC once said to me that we have too much knowledge about some things. I think there’s some truth to that.

GS: I’m sure that your institutional knowledge has been an important asset on many other occasions. I’ll move on to our last topic, Hans, because I know you have a fund to manage. You know all of the big bank CEOs, right?

HM: Yes.

GS: There’s Jamie Dimon, who defies easy description. At Goldman, you’ve got a banker as CEO. At Morgan Stanley, you’ve got an ex-management consultant. At Citibank, you’ve got—

HM: —You’ve got Corbat. Michael is just an excellent manager who gets things fixed. It’s interesting: Jamie is a fantastic manager of people too, but Jamie brings in his team. Corbat is very good at taking on an existing team and just making them better. Brian [Moynihan] is also really good. I mean he was a lawyer, and when he got the job, I had no idea what he was like. But I’ve noticed that the people who have worked for him are really loyal.

GS: I think the CEOs of the big banks tend to be a reflection of the times in which they operate, right? We went through the period of the trader CEO, which is now gone. As you look down the road, what are the heads of the big banks going to look like?

HM: I’ll answer that question by turning you to Microsoft. What explains the turnaround there? Is it because Satya [Nadella] is such an amazing engineer? No; he’s a great people person. He’s a fantastic manager who put in place a high-quality decision process, which is key to managing a complex organization.

GS: Implicit in my question is whether or not these organizations are going to be as big and complex as they are now. Specifically, I’m referring to the supermarket model that you were involved in helping to construct. Does that remain in place?

HM: Keep in mind that liquidity is a very, very important aspect of a financial marketplace, and having access to core liquidity that doesn’t change frequently is very important. The professional money obviously switches very quickly. But things like core deposits, pension flows and corporate cash tend to have the longest time-frames to build access to. But when a bank has access to deposits that don’t move much, it enables it to fund the liquid financial assets. That’s so important for when you hit a liquidity crisis.  

GS: So the big bank model is here to stay?

HM: Yes, I think it’s going to be around for a long time.

GS: Well on that note, Hans, I wish you luck in navigating whatever the future brings. Thanks for sitting down with me and sharing your wisdom.

HM: It’s always a pleasure speaking to you, Gregg. Thank you as well.

This interview has been edited for content, length and clarity.

[Telegram Channel | Original Article ]

[theinvinciblenoob]

Hans Morris is a name to know in fintech, and as finance and tech sectors prepare for tougher time next year, he has some incisive thoughts to share about the kinds of companies that will succeed (or not) in a financial downturn. The managing partner of investment firm Nyca Partners, Morris also serves as the chairman of the board of Lending Club and is a director of other start-ups including AvidXchange, Boomtown, Payoneer and SigFig. At Nyca, which is on its third fund, Morris spends much of his time meeting with entrepreneurs focused on payments, credit models, digital advice and financial infrastructure.

But unlike many successful fintech VCs, Morris doesn’t have to read about how Wall Street’s history influenced the trajectory of those sectors. He played an active role in shaping them. His experiences — heading Smith Barney’s FIG effort (at 29 years old), overseeing Citigroup’s institutional businesses, serving as president of Visa and advising companies at General Atlantic — have also provided him with an unparalleled financial services rolodex. And for those who believe that financial history rhymes, Morris’ opinions are now especially welcome. Fintech may be entering a new, post-financial crisis phase in which the low-hanging fruit has been picked and macro headwinds outweigh tailwinds. In the discussion below, Morris talks candidly about how he’s approaching investing next year and how he’s viewing fintech M&A possibilities. He was also eager to share his thoughts on ethics in financial services (a favorite topic), the prospects for challenger banks, why he’s branched out into real estate tech, the future of blockchain and some of his favorite bank CEOs.

Gregg Schoenberg: Hans, it’s always good to see you, but I’m especially glad to be sitting down with you now, given that the financial world is convulsing at the moment. Before we get into that, though, I want to kick off with something else: Do you buy into the idea of techfin vs. fintech?

Hans Morris: I don’t. My basic organizing principle, which you and I have discussed before, is around declining information costs. As these costs decline, it disrupts the traditional profit pools in financial services. It’s always been like that. What I would say is that in recent times, some tech companies have done a very good job at building a trusted relationship with consumers, and in some cases with businesses. That trusted relationship obviously provides a significant competitive advantage of information. But that advantage lessens later on. There are so many examples we could point to of companies that were ‘it.’ Then, suddenly, they say, ‘Oh no, our tech is expensive, creates a bad experience and will cost a lot to fix.’

GS: Let’s talk about the present. As you know, the Fed has been tightening, equities are hemorrhaging, the yield curve is getting spooky and talk of a recession is intensifying. To me, Lending Club, right or wrong, was one of the original poster children of the post-crisis fintech boom. But now, I think we’re in a regime change and that the next crop of successful financial innovators will look a lot different. What’s in store for an area like credit delivery?

HM: In credit delivery, I think it’s now pretty well-realized by investors, and certainly realized by capital markets investors, that credit delivery requires capital. So today, I feel that anyone who’s going to be successful in credit intermediation needs to have a very good understanding of balance sheet risk, liquidity risk, and capital requirements. I pay a lot of attention to capital requirements, and the ability to fund something in the teeth of a crisis.

GS: Let’s say we enter a recession next year and see continued volatility across the capital markets. I understand that each recession and bear market is different, but with the fresh capital you’ve closed on, where are you looking to go on offense?

HM: Among the thousands of fintech companies that have gotten some funding, there are companies that are really struggling to get their Series B or Series C done.

GS: Names that have lost their momentum?

HM: Yes. They’ve lost their momentum, and they’ve lost the perception of momentum among venture investors. But in some cases, these companies still possess some very good fundamentals, yet the valuations are a lot more attractive. If that dynamic becomes even more extreme, I think there could be some good opportunities.

GS: Isn’t it also true that the fintech names that suck up a lot of the venture money aren’t always the best underlying businesses?

So when you talk about high-valuation companies, I think it’s unrealistic for banks to be acquirers.

HM: It’s an interesting dynamic. Generally, as long as companies can continue to raise capital, they will keep going even if that isn’t necessarily a rational thing to do. But in some cases, where you see a bunch of companies pursuing a similar strategy, it would be better to pursue a merger because we don’t need tons of companies doing personal financial management, etc…

GS: Do you see the big banks with strong balance sheets, the JP Morgans of the world, getting the green light from regulators to be more aggressive in M&A?

HM: Regulators have clearly been one reason there hasn’t been more activity. The second thing is goodwill. Keep in mind that for a bank, goodwill is a 100% reduction to tangible Tier One capital. So even for JP Morgan to say, ‘We’ll take a billion dollars of our Tier One capital and invest it in a company with no income and maybe positive EBITDA, but maybe not—

GS: —That would take a ton of capital or a ton of conviction.

HM: Well, that company would have to be a very powerful growth engine or solution. So when you talk about high-valuation companies, I think it’s unrealistic for banks to be acquirers. Where banks can be acquirers, and this is what we’ve seen, is where you have a company valued at $60 million, maybe a $100 million, etc…

GS: A Clarity Money.

HM: Yes, a company where the acquisition moves a bank much further along in a development cycle. Where the the bank can say, “Instead of us taking two years to get our real product out, we can get out a state-of-the-art product right now, and it comes with a great team and DNA. That’s appealing.

GS: Appealing, but realistic?

HM: It’s hard to pull off. Often, the team leaves, everything dissipates, and the acquirer ends up writing off the whole thing.

GS: Moving forward, who do you think is poised to make M&A work?

HM: There’s a couple of examples where it’s worked. One is PayPal, which in recent times has done an excellent job of acquiring things and integrating talent into the company. I’m quite impressed in terms of how Bill Ready, who is now COO, Dan Shulman and the management team have changed the tech profile of PayPal.

GS: Well, they’re not a 200-year-old financial institution founded on a winding alley in downtown New York.

HM: Yes, but it was very old-school Silicon Valley, and they had a lot of technical debt. Of course, they had this great mafia 20 years ago, but all those people are gone. I don’t think there’s a single person in the top 100 at PayPal that was there 15 years ago.

GS: Let’s talk specific themes. You’ve already mentioned personal financial management, which I share your skepticism about. What’s your take on the prospects for challenger banks?

HM: I think we’re likely to have a war for deposits with too many different types of firms competing for deposits. Just look at the United States last year. All of the deposit growth we saw was explained by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan Chase. Everyone else shrank. But if you have Monzo and Revolut come to the US and you look at Acorns, MoneyLion, Chime and fifteen other prepaid models or fully chartered bank models, they’re all going to have a pretty slick interface, and they’re all going to be out there competing for deposits.  

GS: How about the robos and free trading platforms?  As you know, a lot of the younger customers on these platforms haven’t experienced a sustained period of tumultuous equity market conditions.  

I pay a lot of attention to capital requirements, and the ability to fund something in the teeth of a crisis.

HM: I think a great majority of American households should be using a roboadvisor. However, the question is around the relationship between the customer acquisition and the revenue opportunity. In fact, a big part of our thesis with SigFig was to really help drive the pivot over to enterprise-based customers. But generally, and without knowing the details, my sense is that Betterment, Wealthfront and maybe Personal Capital have enough brand to get to the scale necessary to be self-sufficient. I think most of the others are not in that position.

GS: Turning to the mortgage and broader real estate sector, is your view that even if we have a deepening downdraft in housing, the real estate start-ups backed by you and others can do well anyway? Because they are essentially taking an industry stuck in the 1980s and ’90s and dragging it into the modern era.

HM: There’s a lot of room for tech improvement in real estate, and that includes residential real estate as well as institutional real estate. The problem with real estate, and mortgage-related models, is that the capital needs are also significant. So if you end up owning property, the bill adds up very quickly.

GS: I guess it depends on where a company buys them.

HM: True. Look, we remain bullish on them, but I share your concern that if activity stops or if you start having real decreases in property values in certain sectors, some of these companies may end up holding the bag.  

GS: When I saw the Ribbon deal, I was wondering how you and other backers looked at the opportunity at this point in the cycle.

HM: Well, for one thing, you can estimate the likelihood of someone getting a mortgage pretty efficiently. You can be right 99 percent of the time, but even if you’re only right 90 percent of the time, you’re going to be fine. That’s because the certainty that the company offers to the customer is worth it. They also have a great management team and a CEO who is really smart. They’re not naive.

GS: So given all the hype and ups and downs we’ve seen in blockchain, I’m wondering if you remain a long-term blockchain guy.

HM: Here’s the simple fact: The whole financial services industry is composed of ledgers. The reconciliation between entities of that information is a significant expense, particularly in the capital markets businesses. But I don’t buy into the view that it’s going to work better in all cases. The evidence so far is that it works well in some cases.

GS: Where can it work well?

HM: Distributed ledgers can work well when having synchronous data is an essential attribute, and when speed is not necessarily a central attribute.

GS: So, even if the implementation takes longer than the the hype machine suggested it would, financial institutions will get there?

Because money attracts crooks.

HM: They will get there. The cost of change is very, very high. The benefit of it is real. The question is, ‘How’s that cost of change compare to the ongoing benefit?’ In enterprise applications, the ones that will succeed are not ones where you say, ‘Lets rebuild everything within the core functions,’ because the cost and complexity are too great. The much better way is to start at the edge of an enterprise delivering immediate value, and then become an architecture for more things to move over to that.

GS: It’s easier said than done…

HM: If you take the capital markets area, I think it often requires an individual who has a bigger-than-life personality and the leadership skills to match it.

GS: Speaking of leadership, let’s talk about that within the context of fintech, where, as you know, we’ve seen mixed outcomes. You and I have talked a fair bit about how fintech isn’t like other tech sectors, because you’re dealing with money and livelihoods.

HM: Yes, and the activities are regulated, for a very good reason.

GS: When you look at a deal, does the character of the leader trump everything else?

HM: I’d say that the character and capabilities of a leader make a big difference. And to me, in financial services, the errors made, whether it’s 10 years ago or today, are similar. I mean, you have to tell the truth. You have to.

GS: Why is it so important to you?

HM: Because money attracts crooks.

GS: On that note, when I look at some of those who subscribe to the whole blitzscaling ethos, I see it as incompatible with our current climate and especially problematic to financial services. Blitzscaling doesn’t endorse breaking the law, of course, but this whole idea of consciously letting fires burn is a recipe for disaster in today’s financial services sector, right?

HM: Yes, I think so. I’d add that we have a rule in our firm: Don’t invest in any business model where you’re tricking the customer into a profitable relationship. But unfortunately, I feel that there are many business models that do just that.

GS: That’s a bold rule given that terms of services agreements remain dark dens of iniquity.

HM: Well, it’s more than just that. Look at Robinhood. I think it’s a remarkable company made up of unbelievable entrepreneurs. But I do feel that if you say, ‘Payment for order flow is the business model,’ or ‘Margin lending is the business model,’ you’ve got to spell that out. I mean, ‘payment for order flow?’ Most people would be like, ‘What does that mean?’

GS: You might as well be speaking in Ancient Greek.

A VC once said to me that we have too much knowledge about some things. I think there’s some truth to that.

HM: Exactly. I feel, in financial services, the best companies, the most successful long-run stories, will do the right thing for their customers, always. That also means not making a high-profile release of a new product, like a high-interest checking and savings account yielding way above anyone else, before you’ve actually checked with the regulators.

GS: On that latter reference, how accountable is Robinhood’s board for the company’s recent blunder?

HM: I honestly don’t know in what way the board was involved in this, but I think it’s a good example of where a board should put the brakes on an idea until the risks are clear. Sometimes management teams, and investors, don’t want to hear that, but it’s an essential role for financial services companies.

GS: In your career, you have seen your fair share of financial icons rise and fall. Have you ever passed on a deal that wound up being a huge success because something didn’t smell right?

HM: Yes, we have passed on things that turned out to be really good investments, but that’s part of our equation.

GS: In 1997, Howard Marks—

HM: —He’s fantastic, isn’t he?

GS: He’s phenomenal. In one of his famous memos, he asked ‘Are you an investor? Or are you a speculator?’ Given that there are quite a few VCs who have come to fintech in recent years, I’m wondering if you see a lot of speculators.

HM: Most of the folks that I interact with are investors, not speculators. The crypto stuff is pure speculation by almost everybody.

GS: Yes. I wasn’t implying that we discuss crypto.

HM: To the core of your question, I’ll tell you this: There’s this very, very successful VC investor I had a debate with over a deal. My point was that the company in question would need to raise a lot of capital to scale. But that long-term consideration wasn’t especially relevant to him, because he felt the company would have options down the road. We passed on the deal, but now, I look back and regret that decision.

GS: Are you suggesting that you could benefit from having a little more of a speculative instinct?

HM: A VC once said to me that we have too much knowledge about some things. I think there’s some truth to that.

GS: I’m sure that your institutional knowledge has been an important asset on many other occasions. I’ll move on to our last topic, Hans, because I know you have a fund to manage. You know all of the big bank CEOs, right?

HM: Yes.

GS: There’s Jamie Dimon, who defies easy description. At Goldman, you’ve got a banker as CEO. At Morgan Stanley, you’ve got an ex-management consultant. At Citibank, you’ve got—

HM: —You’ve got Corbat. Michael is just an excellent manager who gets things fixed. It’s interesting: Jamie is a fantastic manager of people too, but Jamie brings in his team. Corbat is very good at taking on an existing team and just making them better. Brian [Moynihan] is also really good. I mean he was a lawyer, and when he got the job, I had no idea what he was like. But I’ve noticed that the people who have worked for him are really loyal.

GS: I think the CEOs of the big banks tend to be a reflection of the times in which they operate, right? We went through the period of the trader CEO, which is now gone. As you look down the road, what are the heads of the big banks going to look like?

HM: I’ll answer that question by turning you to Microsoft. What explains the turnaround there? Is it because Satya [Nadella] is such an amazing engineer? No; he’s a great people person. He’s a fantastic manager who put in place a high-quality decision process, which is key to managing a complex organization.

GS: Implicit in my question is whether or not these organizations are going to be as big and complex as they are now. Specifically, I’m referring to the supermarket model that you were involved in helping to construct. Does that remain in place?

HM: Keep in mind that liquidity is a very, very important aspect of a financial marketplace, and having access to core liquidity that doesn’t change frequently is very important. The professional money obviously switches very quickly. But things like core deposits, pension flows and corporate cash tend to have the longest time-frames to build access to. But when a bank has access to deposits that don’t move much, it enables it to fund the liquid financial assets. That’s so important for when you hit a liquidity crisis.  

GS: So the big bank model is here to stay?

HM: Yes, I think it’s going to be around for a long time.

GS: Well on that note, Hans, I wish you luck in navigating whatever the future brings. Thanks for sitting down with me and sharing your wisdom.

HM: It’s always a pleasure speaking to you, Gregg. Thank you as well.

This interview has been edited for content, length and clarity.

via TechCrunch