#538 politics podcast

[kaiasky]

listen okay the 538 politics podcast is not something i listen to regularly but it has the best intro music of any non-fiction podcast ever when played at 2x speed and that's just a fact

[olderthannetfic]

https://www.tumblr.com/olderthannetfic/663370772509802496/do-you-know-what-the-origin-of-the-sold-to-one

So I was looking at this old post of yours (in your fandom meta tag) and has anyone else noticed that Hogwarts AU fanfic and meta about if this or that character from another fandom would be Hufflepuff or Ravenclaw has completely disappeared? I assume that this is related to JKR’s transphobia making her (understandably) persona non grata to a lot of online queer people of the kind who dominate fanfic fandom at least on AO3 (I’m less familiar with Wattpad or other corners of fandom that are overwhelmingly cishet and writing het, and the Bridgerton drama has taught me a lot about just how out of pace a lot of them are with even elementary queer stuff, yeesh). but I was wondering if others have noticed that. It did seem to really start to crater around 2019-20 when she stopped being coy and blaming it on “middle aged moments,” and started openly making transphobic tweets and writing essays about it rather than just “liking” others’. Like when I was into Yuri on Ice circa 2016-18, it was still all over that fandom, even though people were already souring on the actual official franchise stuff such as those terrible Fantastic Beasts movies.

So I’m mostly active in anime, JRPG and Western genre TV fandoms so I was curious if this was also happening elsewhere. I’m also wondering if the fact that actual HP fandom seems to be increasingly divorced from canon (like fanon pairings of characters who never interacted in canon being the most popular lately) is related to this too.

Cuz having a Hogwarts AU used to be a sign that a fandom had Arrived. I remember in 2016 you saw people doing house sortings for the people on the frickin 538 political podcast. Now I never see any of that even with huge fandoms.

It’s interesting to me given that it feels like her transphobia hasn’t dented much of her popularity with non online nerd culture. Like the third Fantastic Beasts movie failed but those had never been good and had been declining in box office numbers already. But the Hogwarts Legacy game sold really well. You still see HP in stores all over the place with other nerd culture staples like Star Wars and Marvel. Still constantly see brands doing collabs. I often find non online friends and family, including many who are genuine allies to the trans people in their lives, who have no idea about her transphobia. Or they’ve only heard a little and assume it’s some weird insular online culture thing that is just fans nitpicking, maybe having heard about some other Twitter “canceling” over nothing and figuring it’s like that. They’re always shocked and horrified when I tell them what she’s actually saying and doing.

--

Interesting question.

For me, as an Old, it just feels like Hogwarts AUs are part of my childhood, and why wouldn't they be less common now? But realistically, if they actually are declining, it does mean something.

There's no way for us to know if the "Would X be a Hufflepuff?" posts are really a thing of the past. That could be a question of whom one follows or of fans leaving one's platform. But we can at least poke at some AO3 tags and see if they show a pattern.

The relevant tags are Alternate Universe - Hogwarts and its metatag Alternate Universe - Harry Potter Setting.

There are 21,426 works in the metatag. Obviously, not everything uses the tag, but it's a starting point. (Some cursory playing with filters on big tags makes me think that maybe around 3/4 of HP AUs are actually tagged with a relevant AU tag.)

If we look at the AU tag itself, the numbers have come down in the last few years. (This year is obviously only half over, so we'd expect those numbers to be smaller.)

But we have to take into account how big the archive itself was. It's been growing significantly since it opened to staff accounts in late 2008 and then more widely in late 2009, so the overall rise doesn't mean much, but the recent drop might.

It does seem like there's a downward trend lately, but it doesn't look like it's falling off a cliff.

[abcnewspr]

ABC NEWS ANNOUNCES SPECIAL PRIMETIME COVERAGE OF THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ON SUPER TUESDAY

‘World News Tonight’ Anchor and Managing Editor David Muir Leads Network Coverage With ABC News’ Powerhouse Political Team

Coverage and Analysis Begins Tuesday, March 5, at 7:00 p.m. EST on ABC News Live and 10:00 p.m. EST on ABC

ABC News*

ABC News announced today special coverage of the 2024 presidential election on Super Tuesday. “World News Tonight” anchor and managing editor David Muir leads the network’s coverage of the voting results, issues, candidates and campaigns. ABC News Live, ABC News’ 24/7 streaming network, will kick off coverage Tuesday, March 5, at 7:00 p.m. EST, anchored by ABC News Live “Prime” anchor,��Linsey Davis, which will be combined with and lead into coverage on ABC at 10 p.m. EST.

Muir will be joined by ABC News’ powerhouse political team, including Davis; chief global affairscorrespondent and “This Week” co-anchor Martha Raddatz; chief Washington correspondent and “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl;chief White House correspondent Mary Bruce; senior congressional correspondent Rachel Scott from Trump HQ in Florida; correspondent Alex Presha from the trail in South Carolina; chief national correspondent Matt Gutman; senior national correspondent Terry Moran; senior White House correspondent Selina Wang;political director Rick Klein; deputy political director Averi Harper; White House correspondent MaryAlice Parks; correspondents Aaron Katersky, Mola Lenghi,Elizabeth Schulze,and Mireya Villarreal;executive editorial producer John Santucci; senior Washington reporter Devin Dwyer; senior reporter Katherine Faulders; and multiplatform reporter Jay O’Brien. Contributors Dan Abrams, Donna Brazile, John Katko, Reince Priebus,and Kate Shaw will provide analysis across platforms. ABC News will have on-the-ground reporting from California, Alabama, Virginia, Texas and Colorado to deliver viewers up-to-the-minute reporting of all election results and campaign updates.

Additional ABC News Network-Wide Coverage

“Good Morning America,” “World News Tonight with David Muir,” “GMA3: What You Need to Know,” “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” and ABC News Radio will have the latest reporting from ABC News’ powerhouse political team on Super Tuesday delivering results, campaign updates and analysis.

“Nightline” will air special content and features surrounding Super Tuesday. Co-anchor Juju Chang will anchor live from New York and will be joined by an ABC News political powerhouse team, including Scott, Gutman, Klein and more.

“The View” welcomes Davis to the Hot Topics table on Super Tuesday, and Karl joins the show the following morning to discuss the results.

ABC News Digital will have a 538-led live blog reporting on what to watch for on Super Tuesday and why it matters. Topics also include analysis of polling data surrounding Nikki Haley’s presidential chances, notable races in Texas, a California Senate primary preview and more. On the night of the race, ABC News Digital will have 16 state result pages updated constantly, exit poll analysis, key takeaways and commentary from our ABC News and 538 political team.

“Start Here,” ABC News’ flagship daily news podcast, will feature special coverage and analysis of Super Tuesday with host Brad Mielke and ABC’s powerhouse political team.

ABC NewsOne, the affiliate news service of ABC News, will be reporting from Washington with ABC News multiplatform reporter Perry Russom. Klein will also be offering an analysis of the results for ABC stations. NewsOne provides news content and services for more than 200 ABC affiliates and international news partners.

*COPYRIGHT ©2024 American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. All photography is copyrighted material and is for editorial use only. Images are not to be archived, altered, duplicated, resold, retransmitted or used for any other purposes without written permission of ABC. Images are distributed to the press to publicize current programming. Any other usage must be licensed.

-- ABC --

[nana-glass-chillhop-radio-hour]

God I hate to say this but the reviewers on Goodreaders were right, 'the Terraformers' is unreadable. It's like a thought experiment of how to write a novel espousing political views I agree with in the most insufferable way possible. It's the book version of a 538 podcast in summer of 2020.

[justincomments]

Election night is just around the corner, and the anxiety is real. As usual, the fear of the “other side” winning is setting in, making it feel like everything is on the line. But here’s the thing—while the drama unfolds on TV, I’ve found that taking a data-driven approach can really help cut through the noise.

One of my go-to sources for making sense of it all is the 538 Politics Podcast. It’s not an endorsement, just a suggestion from someone who appreciates “inside baseball” insights. The podcast breaks down everything from polling methods to voter behavior, offering a clearer picture of what’s happening behind the scenes. If you’re feeling overwhelmed by election night chaos, this podcast might help bring a bit more clarity. It’s less about predicting who will win and more about explaining why certain trends are emerging.

We all get wrapped up in the results, feeling like everything hinges on who takes the White House. But the reality is that, no matter who wins, the system is designed to resist rapid change. The sun will still rise, bills will still need paying, and we’ll all head back to work the next day.

So, if you're feeling election night jitters, check out the 538 Politics Podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to help make sense of the numbers without the drama.

[msclaritea]

Ohio Senate passes GOP-led Biden ballot access bill without Democrats' support - ABC News

Ohio Senate passes GOP-led Biden ballot access bill without Democrats' support

Democrats opposed a GOP clause to bar foreign money from ballot initiatives.

ByIsabella Murray

May 28, 2024, 4:01 PM ET

Will low voter enthusiasm affect election turnout?In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we examine the low voter enthusiasm for the presidential candidates. Are there other factors that could drive Americans to the polls?Andrew Harnik/AP

As Ohio lawmakers convened on Tuesday for a special session to address President Joe Biden's ability to appear on their general election ballot in November, the Democratic National Committee said it would move to conduct virtual party proceedings to certify Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party nominees -- a move that works around Ohio's ballot certification deadline.

Ohio's Senate Republicans ultimately passed a bill that would both allow Biden to appear on their general election ballot in November, but also bar foreign contributions to ballot issue campaigns. The latter was a direct response to GOP objections to the "Issue 1" campaign last year that constitutionally protected abortion in the state. The move came without Democratic support, however, with members seemingly empowered to vote against the legislation following the DNC announcement.

"We don't need your fix. The DNC just released a statement several minutes ago that says we're going to hold a virtual vote of our delegates across the country and nominate President Biden to the ballot," State Sen. Bill DeMora said on Tuesday. "We don't want a legislative fix that holds the voters and their rights to the whim of the majority."

[dayisfading]

back to listening to the 538 politics podcast and it's a fucking breath of fresh air with nate silver gone

[love-the-aftertaste]

I accidentally wrote a friend a novel on what has been happening with with the US impeachment story over the last 60 or so hours, and I put enough work into it I thought I would share it here as well. This was written on Friday, September 27th @ 7:24am:

Hey, so last week there was news that Trump had made a promise to a foreign leader over the phone that was so concerning someone in the intelligence community filed an official whistleblower complaint that was deems both “credible and urgent” by Intelligence Community Inspector General (ICIG) and trump appointee, Michael Atkinson, that the Trump administration refused to turn over to Congress, despite the fact Congress is supposed to be a co-equal branch of government that has as constitutional responsibility to check and balance the power of the president and thus is legally entitled to see that complaint.

And then in light of the fact Trump kept stonewalling Congress, this Tuesday, Speak of the House, Nancy Pelosi finally grew a pair and announced the House was launching a formal impeachment investigation into the president, even tho TTrump had already announced he would release the transcript of the call with the president of Ukraine (who turned out to be the aforementioned foreign leader) and everyone was freaking out that Pelosi had overplayed her hand bc what if the transcript was released and was not as damning as everyone thought it would be, especially since we all knew it would be edited to show trump in the best possible light...

And then the next day (Wednesday morning) the White House did release, not a call transcript, but what is called a "tel-con memo" i.e., a telephone communication memo, which is essentially the notes someone wrote down real fast either while the call was happening or immediately after. AND IT WAS THAT BAD. In it, Trump explicitly states "I want you to do us a favor tho" after lecturing the Ukrainian president about how much aid (money) we give them and how much aid they do not give us. And then Trump goes on to tell the Ukraine president to work with Rudy Giuliani and Attorney General Bill Barr and also to look into Crowdstrike which is this crazy conspiracy theory the Pesident of the Free World apparently actually believes. But most importantly, Trump also directly asked the Ukraine president to look into Joe Biden and his son for a different conspiracy theory.

And then the declassified whistleblower complaint was delivered to Congress finally Wednesday night, even though it wasnt released to the public until Thursday morning and then like an hour later, the (acting) Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Joseph Mcguire, got in front of the House for about 3/3.5 hours of questioning about his role in this whole mess, during which he tried to play Bob Mueller and just dodge most of the questions, but he did admit several important points, including but not limited to, he thought the whistleblower was acting in good faith and that he thought the greatest threat to the USA was election interference...

And now hardcore Republicans like Mitch McConnell, Devin Nunes, and John Ratcliffe, are trying to pretend that Trump did nothing wrong and that the whistleblower complaint is only "hearsay" which is a legal term that DOES NOT apply to investigations, so i literally just do not understand if they dont know the law or are just trying to mislead the public, or probably some combination of both. But also, it is critical to remember that Trump and his attorney have both multiple times admitted on TV and via that tel-con memo to asking a foreign power (Ukraine) to investigate a political rival, which in and of itself is impeachable conduct.

More moderate Republicans are still towing the party line however they are trying to spin the story as "Trump did something bad but its not impeachable" and usually the reason they cite is there was no quid-pro-quo, i.e., trump did not literally say if you do this for me, i will give you foreign aid money" but two things: 1) there doesnt need to be a quid-pro-quo, the fact that he asked is enough, and 2) at the time of the phone call, trump was already withholding foreign aid money from Ukraine and both from the timing of the call and from the language in the tel-con, it seems as if there was a quid-pro-quo anyway.

Democrats on the other hand have finally, finally united on this and now more than 218 (the necessary number of votes to impeach) of them support impeachment, or at least support and impeachment inquiry.

Also Trump has gone from begging to be impeached under the presumption impeachment would help him get reelected, to likening the whistleblower and whoever talked to the whistleblower to spies and treason and suggested we handle them the way we used to treat spies in the old days "back when we were smart" which is to say, Trump would like to have the whistleblower executed. Meanwhile, the New York fucking Times have been doing their level best to out the identity of the whistleblower, which is just so irresponsible it is mind-boggling.

Oh and Giuliani seems to honestly think former Vice President and Presidential Candidate Joe Biden is trying to kill him since he keeps yelling at anyone who will listen that he (Giuliani) needs whistleblower protection, despite the fact he did not blow the whistle on anything or anyone unless the "whistle" is a euphemism for Trump’s dick.

[greentyn]

Gonna start being a stripper but my routine is gonna be set to the 538 politics podcast

[socialistexan]

I was listening to the 538 podcast (I know) and they were talking about Matthew Mcconaughey potentially running for Texas Governor, and the whole thing just had me baffled.

Like, they had the seed of a good thought in thinking he should run as an independent because the Democrats have a bad brand in Texas.

They just forgot one thing: straight ticket voting.

Straight ticket for a single party is incredibly popular in Texas. I don't mean people going through the ballot and checking off the same party's candidate, I mean there's a button (or box if it's a paper ballot) that says "straight ticket republican" and one that says "straight ticket democrat" and then they just push that button and move on.

Most people, in a general election, don't pay attention to the individual candidates down ballot, they just hit the button for red or blue. They won't even really check to see if they voted in every race.

If Mcconaughey runs as an independent, any soft republican or right-leaning independent he picks up will be outweighed 5 fold by missing out on by missing straight ticket Democratic voters.

And they have someone on that podcast that lives in Texas and supposedly understand Texas politics.

[transgenderer]

Do u still listen to the 538 podcast? I stopped a little bit after the election and it’s hard to tell if I lost interest bc the election is over and so 538 has lost its value over replacement podcast, or if it’s because they lost Clare’s very potent star quality.

nah i also stopped a bit after the election for basically the same reason. before the election i was like, constantly itching for political updates and now i just dont have that itch, but if the podcast still had the fun of clare-nate arguments or like the fun buddies atmosphere clare-nate-galen trio has i might still be listening

[thewebcomicsreview]

I was just wondering if you've ever really talked about your political ideology? After reading following your twitter link on the 538 post I found your actual interest in the Democratic party politics and process refreshing from what I call the 'vaguely socialist' ideology from everyone else I follow who isn't primarily an election/politics account.

Talk about politics, you say?!

I’m not looking to make this a politics blog (follow me on Twitter for that!), so I’ll just longpost the answer to your question and get back to this Bob and George essay I’m working on.

I just got back from voting for Ed Markey in the Massachusetts Senate primary over Joe Kennedy (repping a @latchkeykingdom face mask while I did so!). Warren was my first choice in the primary, but I voted for Bernie because by Super Tuesday the writing was on the wall for her. There are elements of the Bernie left I find aggravating (spend less time whining about how dare the moderates endorse Biden and more time on outreach to older black voters speaking of which Chapo Trap House is bad), but I think they’ve gotten a lot better about a lot of that stuff in the last few years. This November (well, October, Massachusetts has early voting), I’ll be voting for Joe Biden even though he was my fifth choice in the primary and I regard any leftist who refuses to do the same as suspicious at best. 

Probably the secret sauce of my political leanings is simply that I live in Massachusetts, where the gap between progressives and establishment Democrats, while wide, is notably smaller than in most states. So the minimum wage here is $12.75/hr and it goes up to $13.50 in January (and $14.25 in 2022 and $15 in 2023), the third highest in the country, we were the first state to legalize gay marriage, we set up universal health insurance when that was considered the bar, etc. I am also a decrepit old 30-something and remember when Howard Dean was the Progressive Hearthrob Too Good For This World and then Obama governed way to the left of Dean’s platform (Dean’s health care plan was tax credits!), so my narrative of the last 15 years is that young people have rocketed to the left while Democrats have moved left at kind of a leisurely jog. This has made me a little more forgiving of Democrats than most progressives (though this last week, man...).

I have always been a bit of a “politics junkie”, and while I’m probably closer to “progressive” than “liberal” nowadays I like to read a lot of center-left media. Vox and Mother Jones, but not Jacobin. I find a lot of leftist media very...factually sloppy...even now. I listen to the 538 podcast semi-regularly, and it’s the only podcast I really listen to.

I also have QAnon family members. which makes me rather more concerned about crushing that kind of stuff than a lot of leftists and liberals are right now, and I’m hoping more people wake up to what a major problem “30% of the country thinks everyone left of Trump is part of a Jewish conspiracy to literally eat the fear of children like a fucking Care Bears villain except they’re serious about it and they have guns” is. 

[hookechoes]

Have been listening to 538 politics podcast for several months now and JUST found out Nate silvers gay and honestly had a come to Jesus moment because I did NOT see that one coming at all

[djinnj]

So, according to 538's politics podcast, new voter registration has nose dived since Covid19 happened. They think it has to do with the reduction of access to the places people usually register be it the DMV or county government offices, to places like high school graduations, fairs and festivals, etc where third party groups hold registration drives. When it becomes less convenient to register it's easy for it to get overlooked.

I really can't express how important it is for people to register so they can vote in November. Newly enfranchised? 18th birthday by election day? Want to have your opinion about federal, state, and local government literally counted? Register and then vote!

Not every state has online registration, but most of them do and the ones that don't will have mail registration. People can check their registration status or get registered at Vote411. This is a good time to make sure your registration is up to date, too, in case you've moved, changed your name, or there are any discrepancies that might impact your ability to vote in November.

Register and then vote!

[theuseofashes]

538 update