#2020 congressional race

[batboyblog]

How are you feeling about the election currently?

I'm optimistic, so far basically all nation wide polls show Harris ahead.

now we don't vote nationally, we vote by state in the electoral college and that picture is messier with the polls of the swing states, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada being kinda all over the place.

however, basically every poll of the swing states together show Harris leading in enough of them to win, now which ones she's ahead and by how much is very kinda all over the place with different polls showing different states up and down.

but on the other hand, the Democrats running for Senate in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, and the Democrat running for Governor in North Carolina are all showing MUCH! stronger numbers, winning by A LOT. Which is hopeful, that their strength is a side of Harris' strength and that undecideds will break her way.

That being said, NO! ONE! should take the election for granted, look at one good poll, or what I say and go "oh I can relax" no, it is dead tie, a neck in neck race, basically a tie. We are with-in the margin of effort, we are in a place where each and every person who volunteers has the power to change the outcome of this election. so please please please

VOLUNTEER

last weekend I volunteered up in northern Maine, Maine splits it's electoral votes and Trump in 2016 and 2020 won an electoral vote for the 2nd Congressional District in Northern Maine. So I went up there and knocked doors, talked to a dozen or so voters. This is just a little snap shot, but I was talking to voters who were not sure thing Dems, independent voters mostly. And all of them, pretty much, were very enthusiastic about Harris, even the one Republican (not on my list) I ran into had nothing to say about Trump, nothing, liked the District's Democratic Congressman (a lot). Walking around and driving I didn't see one Trump sign, not one sign for the Republican running for Congress either. I saw a number of signs (in lawns) for Harris/Walz I also saw no Trump signs on the road up. Rural Maine used to be infested with Trump signs, they've disappeared. Does that mean anything? idk, but take my little snapshot to say, come out and canvas right now guys, people are friendly and pumped up and will thank you and you'll feel great.

The only cure to election fear and stress is to do something, to volunteer and talk to voters.

[lady-raziel]

Somewhere, in another timeline...Bernie Sanders is finishing out his second term as president.

(a coping-method scenario)

Back in 2016, the Democratic Party saw that denying his appeal and pushing forward with Hillary Clinton would be catastrophic—she didn’t have the appeal, and pushing forward another historic first right after Obama might galvanize the right wing further into feeling that America was no longer “for them.” The potential risk was too great in radicalizing that bloc, and as strange as it seemed, Bernie was the safer choice. He faces Donald Trump in the general election—and many pundits decry the sad state of today’s politics, where the only choices are a “socialist kook” or a reality television star. Trump’s odd mannerisms and morally questionable behavior, however, manage to turn off enough people that they’d rather not vote at all. After careful consideration, the Democrats do decide to take a chance on a female VP running mate (after all, the Republicans had set precedent with Sarah Palin in 2008)-- Senator Amy Klobuchar gets tapped to balance the ticket. With the slightly lower voter turnout on the right, and the left energized with a surging youth vote, Bernie Sanders becomes the 45th president of the United States, and America gets its first female VP with Amy Klobuchar.

Trump, who had honestly never intended on winning anyway, uses the loss as planned to claim fraud and launch his own cable streaming channel- TNN, Trump News Nation- intended as a rival to Fox News. He repeatedly tries to sue over the “stolen” election—this had all been intended to make sorely needed funds for his hemorrhaging business ventures after all. TNN draws massive ratings on launch, but as the months go by, views trickle off as watchers grow exhausted of hearing about politics through the context of Trump’s own grievances. Most filter back to Fox News, where at least the diet of mostly fabricated nonsense and conspiracy theories are varied. TNN’s most viewed show is a variation on the Apprentice, where contestants compete to gain Donald’s political endorsement and “mentorship.” None of the winning show contestants ever end up winning their political races. By 2018, viewership is minimal and stagnant, any ad revenue has dried up, and TNN shutters its doors. Trump moves on to his next failed business grift, fading from public relevance only to be occasionally remembered as “that time a reality tv personality ran for president…can you believe that happened?” American politics forgets him as another failed presidential candidate, and the GOP moves on, reexamining their strategy after losing to a Democrat once again.

Bernie’s presidency isn’t all sunshine and roses. The young progressives who voted him in find themselves frustrated with the lack of sudden progressive changes he’s actually able to make due to the constraints of the presidency—one still needs to work with Congress, after all. And Washington doesn’t exactly warm up to the formerly Independent senator with a leftist bent quickly. But landmark bipartisan legislation on climate change that includes concessions to congressional Republicans on taxes proves to be very successful. Despite controversy on some of the legislation's corporate tax restructuring (part of Republican demands), the tax cuts and benefits for the vast majority of Americans have appeal to even those who questioned the value of climate change measures.

By the 2020 election, Bernie’s favorability is substantial, in addition to a boost from quick action in tackling a small, ultimately containable new virus. Regardless, Bernie is able to leverage providing funds for vaccine research to help contain and prevent future outbreaks to drug companies, in exchange for negotiating price caps on certain drugs. The combined result is more than enough to hand him a win in 2020 against Ted Cruz—who’s off-putting “serial killer vibes” and right-leaning deep Texas persona prove to be buzzkills for the GOP’s attempt at leaning right as a rebrand.

The fields for both parties are packed in the 2024 primaries—but ultimately Senator Cory Booker clenches the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans take a chance on Representative Liz Cheney, hoping that the combination of the Cheney name and a female candidate a la the Sarah Palin gambit will be what’s needed to turn their losing streak around. It’s a tight race, in the end—pundits pontificate on how “polarized” the nation has become, as rhetoric flies about the Cheney legacy and calling Liz everything from a warmonger to “the worst candidate America has ever seen who will do serious damage to the heart of the nation.” Voters on the left debate the potential of the first female president vs rehashed talking points from the Bush era and the legacy of wars in the Middle East.

The pick of Booker by the Democratic establishment, who are fairly eager to regain control over the nomination process and candidate selection after having to cede control and allow Bernie's candidacy last time, ultimately reflects that the party and elites have not learned the lesson 2016 should have impressed upon them. Instead of allowing the voters interests to shape the primaries, they continue to wield control and painstakingly fixate over the specific demographics of candidates, trying to find the right "mix" that they think moderate voters will "tolerate." Booker, despite his accomplishments, is ultimately the victim of this, as he doesn't have the revolutionary appeal of Obama, despite frequently being painted as "Obama 2.0." The Democrats fail once again to learn that what voters truly care about is not a candidate fitting certain demographic boxes, but the strength of their ideas and narrative.

Ultimately, the voters go with Liz Cheney, who historically becomes the first female president of the United States. Republicans are jubilant at taking back the White House (and that they were able to claim a historic first and deny Democrats the honor-- not that they'd say it outright, since they'd sought to strike a contrast between running Cheney just as a candidate and not as a woman). Despite the outcome of the election, it's unclear whether the Democratic establishment finally learns that lesson-- or retreats into itself pointing fingers and throwing blame at "not picking a female and losing credibility as the party of progress." Rumors had been flying that Hillary was going to try again—ultimately turning out to be false (but perhaps not entirely untrue-- she had been approached and was considering it). Some Democrats point out that "progress" should be expressed through innovative and progressive policies that will APPEAL to different demographics, instead of ignoring stagnant policies to focus on demographics alone...time will tell if their voices are heard.

As for Joe Biden, one of the longstanding members of the political sphere, after serving as Obama's VP, he retires to his home in Delaware, only occasionally being seen at major political events here and there. The largest amount of attention he gets is a moment in 2021 that spawns many, many memes-- a viral video is captured of Biden enjoying an ice cream when it falls to the floor, at which point the former VP stares at the melting cone and declares "I'm Dark Brandon." No one has any clue what he's talking about, and it's written off as just another "Uncle Joe" gaffe. Other than that, not much is heard from Biden. People do say, however, that occasionally the man stares off into the distance with a far-off look of horror, as if he is somewhere else entirely...and witnessing something awful.

As Cheney is sworn in as president, the progressive corners of the internet mourn, citing the actions of Dick Cheney and decrying that this new administration might be "the death of democracy." A viral Tweet (yes, TWEET) with millions of likes reads "bruh this has to be the darkest timeline, there's no way this could be any worse 😫"

(If only they really knew...)

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Morgan Stephens at Daily Kos:

With a competitive House race in the balance, arsonists set democracy on fire.  Early Monday morning, ballot boxes at two locations in the Pacific Northwest were destroyed by fire—one in Vancouver, Washington, and another in Portland, Oregon—with election officials estimating that “hundreds of ballots” may have been burned. In Portland, Oregon, police found that an incendiary device had been placed inside a voting drop box. However, a fire suppressant inside the box protected all but three ballots, and the local elections office planned to reach out to the affected voters to help them obtain replacement ballots. Shortly thereafter, another fire was set at a ballot box in Vancouver, Washington, near a public transit center. Clark County Elections Auditor Greg Kimsey confirmed to Forbes that mail-in ballots dropped off in the receptacle over the weekend had not been picked up, and that “hundreds” have been destroyed. He urged voters who dropped their ballot in the box at Fisher's Landing Transit Center after 11 AM PT Saturday to contact Clark County Elections for a replacement. 

[...] At the presidential level, Washington and Oregon are historically solid Democratic states, with Joe Biden winning them in 2020 by over 19 percentage points and 16 points, respectively. However, there’s a crucial House race in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District between Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican Joe Kent, whom Donald Trump endorsed. She narrowly won in 2022, with a margin of 2,633 votes over Kent, who also ran that year. Her victory was a shock in this red-tinted district, which 538 calculated as having a partisan lean of R+11.2.

MAGA voter intimidation games are going on, as hundreds of thousands of ballots got burned in key Democratic strongholds such as Portland, Oregon, Vancouver, Washington, and Phoenix, Arizona in recent days.

See Also:

Arizona Republic: Phoenix police ID suspect in connection with mailbox fire where ballots burned

[mostlysignssomeportents]

1,000,000 stranded Southwest passengers deserved better from Pete Buttigieg

The catastrophic failure of Southwest Air over Christmas 2022 was the worst single-airline aviation failure in American history, stranding over 1,000,000 passengers. But while it was exceptional, it was also foreseeable: 2022 saw Southwest and the other carriers rack up record numbers of cancellations, leaving crews and fliers stranded.

It’s not like the carriers can’t afford to improve things. After pulling in $54 billion in covid relief, the airlines are swimming in cash, showering executives with record bonuses and paying titanic dividends to shareholders. Southwest has announced a $428m dividend.

This isn’t a new problem. Trump’s Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao was a paragon of inaction and neglect, refusing even to meet with consumer advocacy groups. This is bad, because under US law, state attorneys general are not allowed to punish misbehaving airlines — that power vests solely and entirely with the Secretary of Transport.

It’s been two years since Biden appointed Pete Buttigieg to be the human race’s most powerful aviation regulator. Buttigieg started his tenure on a promising note, meeting with the same consumer groups that Chao had snubbed, but after that hopeful beginning, things ground to a halt.

As Corporate Crime Reporter details, William McGee of the American Economic Liberties Project was impressed by the Secretary: “He was intelligent, articulate, he had good questions for us, he was taking notes, he seemed concerned.” But 18 months later, McGee describes Buttigieg’s leadership as “lax.”

https://www.corporatecrimereporter.com/news/200/pete-buttigieg-and-the-southwest-airlines-meltdown/

Buttigieg likes to tout a single enforcement action as his signature achievement: fining six airlines and ordering them to issue refunds to US passengers. But only one of those airlines was a US carrier: Frontier, which only accounts for 2% of all US flights. The US monopoly carriers have gone unscathed.

The US carriers are in sore need of regulatory discipline. In 2020 alone, United racked up 10,000 consumer complaints, twice as many as any other carrier. Under Buttigieg, the DOT investigated these airlines and closed every one of these complaints without taking any against them.

This is part of a wider pattern. In Buttigieg’s 18 month tenure, not a single airline has been ordered to pay any fines as a result of cancellations. In the absence of oversight and accountability, the airlines have made a habit out of scheduling flights they know they don’t have the crew to fly (they used public covid funds to buy out senior crew contracts, retiring much of their workforce).

This gives the airlines the flexibility to offer many flights they know they can’t service, and to allocate crew to whichever runs will generate the most profit, stranding US passengers and holding onto their money for months or years before paying refunds — if they ever do.

Consumer groups weren’t alone in sounding the alarm over the deteriorating conditions in the airline sector. In 2022, dozens of state attorneys general — Democrats and Republicans — sent open letters to Buttigieg begging him to use his broad powers as Secretary of Transport to hold the airlines accountable.

What are those powers? Well, the big one is USC40 Section 41712(a), the “unfair and deceptive” authority modeled on Section 5 of the FTC Act. This authority allows the Secretary to act without further Congressional action, to order airlines to end practices that are “unfair and deceptive,” and to extract massive fines from companies that don’t comply.

As McGee told CCR, “the scheduling and canceling of flights is both unfair and deceptive.” In order to force the airlines to end this practice, Buttigieg would have to initiate an investigation into the practice. The American Economic Liberties Project called on Buttigieg to open an investigation months ago. There has not been such an investigation.

Even on refunds, Buttigieg’s much-touted signature achievement, the Secretary has left Americans in the cold. US law requires airlines to give cash refunds to passengers on cancelled flights. But to this day, passengers are sent unfair and deceptive messages by airlines offering them credit for cancellations, and fliers must fight their way through a bureaucratic quagmire to get cash refunds.

McGee and other advocates met with Buttigieg twelve times sking him to address this. When he finally took action, he ignored the domestic airlines — which racked up 5,700% more complaints in his first year on the job than in the previous year — except for tiny, largely irrelevant Frontier. If you are an American whose journey on an American airline was cancelled, there’s a 98% chance that Buttigieg let them off without a single dollar in fines.

McGee isn’t an armchair quarterback. He is an industry veteran, an FAA-licensed aircraft dispatcher: “I canceled flights. I rescheduled flights. I diverted flights. I delayed flights. I did that every day.”

Apologists for Buttigieg claim that he’s doing all he can: “Pete isn’t in charge of airline IT!” But while USC 40 doesn’t mention computer systems or staffing levels directly, it doesn’t have to: the “unfair and deceptive” standard is deliberately broad, to give regulators the powers they need to protect the American people.

In understanding whether the million fliers that Southwest stranded on the way to their Christmas vacations could have expected more from their DOT, it’s worth looking at how other regulators have used similar authority to protect the American people.

Exhibit A here has to be FTC Chair Lina Khan, whose powers under FTCA5 are nearly identical to Buttigieg’s power under 41712(a) (the DOT language was copied nearly verbatim from the FTCA). Two years ago, Khan began an in-depth investigation into the use of nonompete agreements in the US labor market.

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/events/2020/01/non-competes-workplace-examining-antitrust-consumer-protection-issues

This investigation created an extensive evidentiary record on the ways that workers are harmed by these agreements, and collected empirical observations about whether industries really needed noncompetes to thrive (for example, noncompetes are banned in California, home to the most profitable, most knowledge-intensive businesses in the world, undermining claims that these businesses need noncompetes to survive).

Then, right as Southwest was stranding a million Americans, Khan unveiled a rulemaking to ban noncompetes for every American worker, using her Section 5 powers. Khan’s rule is retroactive, undoing every existing noncompete as well as banning them into the future.

https://pluralistic.net/2023/01/10/the-courage-to-govern/#whos-in-charge

This is what a fully operational battle-station looks like! Khan and Buttigieg are among the most powerful people who have ever lived, with more and farther-reaching regulatory authority, more power to alter the lives of millions of people, than almost anyone who every drew breath.

And yet, when Secretary Buttigieg jawbones about the airlines, it’s all pleading, not threats. As McGee says, “If you have a Secretary of Transportation who does not punish the airlines when they act terribly, then we should not be surprised when they continue to behave terribly.”

State AGs from both parties are desperate for Buttigieg to back legislation that would return their right to punish airlines. So far, he has not voiced his support for this regulation. When the Secretary of Transport won’t act, and when he won’t support the right of other officials to act, the American traveler is truly stranded.

Image: Tomás Del Coro (modified) https://www.flickr.com/photos/tomasdelcoro/24575277589

Japanexperterna.se (modified) https://www.flickr.com/photos/japanexperterna/15251188384/

CC BY-SA 2.0: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

 — 

Tarcil (modified) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:La_Brea_Tar_Pits_Elephant_Statues_1990_right.jpg

CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en

[Image ID: The La Brea tar-pits. A Southwest jet is nose-down in the tar, next to a stranded mastodon. In the foreground are the three wise monkeys, their faces replaced with that of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.]

[mariacallous]

Republicans on Monday conceded defeat in their push to change how the state of Nebraska counts its electoral votes as a way to help Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in November.

“Our governor had considered a special session of the legislature in order to make that change, but the votes aren’t there to do it,” U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) told reporters on Monday after a key Republican in the Nebraska Legislature announced his opposition.

“It’s over,” she said.

Trump and Republican members of Congress last week urged Nebraska Republicans to change their electoral rules just weeks before the November presidential election so that the state’s five electoral votes would likely all go to Trump instead of allowing one to go to the Democratic candidate based on how Nebraskans vote. Nebraska and Maine are the only states that don’t follow a winner-take-all formula.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a top Trump ally on Capitol Hill, even traveled to Nebraska to urge lawmakers to support the change, but the effort appeared to stall out after state Sen. Mike McDonnell (R) balked, denying proponents a filibuster-proof majority in the legislature.

“I have taken time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue,” McDonnell said in a statement on Monday. “After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change.”

The state’s 2nd Congressional District, including Omaha and its suburbs, has swung toward Democrats since Trump was elected in 2016. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the district and its one electoral vote by 6.5 percentage points. Recent polling of the district shows the Democratic nominee, Vice President Harris, with a similar lead over Trump.

Changing the way Nebraska awards electoral votes could potentially have a major effect on the presidential race. If Trump receives an additional electoral vote, as he likely would in a winner-take-all allocation, Harris would need to sweep in the Rust Belt states (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) as well as carry an additional Sun Belt state (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada or North Carolina) to avoid a tied election.

Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) called the lack of support for the voting change “disappointing.”

“I’ll have to talk to the senator to see if he can change his mind, but until he does we don’t have the votes,” he added on Monday.

[deadpresidents]

Is there any truth to the claims that Obama pushed Biden to exit the race?

I think Obama was one of many voices within the Democratic Party that was urging President Biden to step aside. I think Biden takes anything coming from Obama more personally because they have a more complex relationship now than when Biden was Obama's Vice President. They had one of the closest personal relationships between a President and Vice President in American history during the Obama Administration, but there has been a change because Biden was hurt in 2016 when Obama basically made it clear that he believed Hillary Clinton was a better option to succeed him than Biden was.

Biden felt validated in 2020 when he was able to do what Hillary couldn't do and defeated Trump, and the Biden-Obama relationship has been more distant since then. I think it's also probably a weird dynamic for both of them because Obama was obviously the dominant figure throughout his Presidency and I imagine it's difficult for him to have the tables turned now that Biden is President. In the public events that they've done together during Biden's Presidency, Biden always seems overshadowed by Obama and I think that causes some friction, as well. There is a genuine personal friendship between Obama and Biden, but there's also a competitive dynamic to their relationship. Biden has wanted to be seen as his own man in the Presidency, and Obama has wanted to protect his legacy, which he believes is undoubtedly linked with Biden, especially since there's so much overlap with their respective White House staffs.

It's been pretty obvious from the reporting over the past week that President Biden is still having some difficulty coming to terms with the idea of not running for re-election. I've seen sources outright saying that the President is "pissed off". I don't think Obama was as big of an influence in getting Biden to step aside as some of the senior Congressional leaders, like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, and Jim Clyburn. It sounds like once Biden lost Pelosi, it became clear that things might get ugly if the President didn't make the decision to step aside on his own. Pelosi is still an enormously powerful figure in the party and a juggernaut when it comes to fundraising. If she was working behind-the-scenes against Biden, the President was probably on his way to losing the support of pretty much everybody in Congress -- that's how powerful Nancy Pelosi still is. I don't know how direct Obama was in those efforts, but the fact that many of Obama's closest political operators -- David Axelrod, David Plouffe, the Pod Save America crew (Favreau, Pfeiffer, Lovett, Vietor), etc. -- were making the argument on Obama's behalf was pretty clear to me.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

Cartoon Movement

* * * *

A new way forward—for good!

November 5, 2024

Robert B. Hubbell

Nov 04, 2024

As we head into Election Day, I don’t want to tell you how to feel. Instead, I will describe how I am feeling. I hope it is helpful.

I am feeling confident because we have done everything asked of us—and more.

I am feeling confident because we have enthusiasm and momentum on our side.

I am feeling confident because Kamala Harris has run a nearly flawless campaign.

I am feeling confident because I know that women are determined to reclaim their status as full citizens under the Constitution.

I am feeling confident because Democrats have consistently overperformed the predictions of pollsters and pundits in every election since 2020.

I am feeling confident because pollsters and pundits have underestimated the power of the grassroots movement that has engaged tens of millions of Americans as never before.

I am feeling confident because of the professionalism and dedication of local Democratic Party organizations.

I am feeling confident because Kamala Harris has shown us a new way forward that focuses on the good in the American people rather than on their grievances and divisions.

I am feeling confident because I know that the new way forward that has emerged over the last eight years is a change for good that will persist and prevail long after we are gone.

I am feeling confident because I know we aren’t going back—no matter what happens in any race decided on Election Day 2024.

I am feeling confident because we are standing on the shoulders of generations of Americans who sacrificed their lives, liberty, and security so that we could arrive safely at this moment of opportunity and promise.

I am feeling confident because I know that we will ultimately prevail in the larger battle for the soul of America.

I know that we are not guaranteed success. I know that polls continue to show a race allegedly closer than any presidential and congressional election in modern history. I know we could suffer disappointment—but I also know that we can survive, endure, and prevail over any loss. We have done so before, and we can do so again.

In my moments of doubt and worry, I am drawn to the memory of 25-year-old John Lewis, who led 600 marchers across Edmund Pettus Bridge on Bloody Sunday, March 7, 1965. On that fateful day, state troopers cracked John Lewis’s skull with a club for daring to demand equal voting rights for Black Americans.

John Lewis could have given up when he awoke in the hospital with a bandaged and bloody head. He did not.

Two weeks after Bloody Sunday, John Lewis marched with Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and thousands of others to complete the march into Montgomery.

Five months later, President Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Whatever happens on Election Day, I am not giving up—and I know you are not giving up. It doesn’t matter whether we win a trifecta or suffer shocking losses, our work of defending democracy will not be finished. It never will be.

Yes, Election Day is critically important. But it is one of thousands of critically important days in the life of our democracy within living memory.

If we are fortunate enough to secure major victories on Tuesday, our reward will be that we get to do it all over again, starting on Wednesday.

Democracy is an ongoing, collaborative process. The good news is that we are working with one another to ensure that we preserve democracy for the next generation. I am honored to be working by your side!

Notes from the field (part IV)

Jill and I canvassed with Steve and Ellen Hill on Monday, covering 116 residences in Charlotte. It was a sobering experience. The areas we canvassed were economically depressed. We walked through some single-family home neighborhoods, where many homes were abandoned. Rental homes were dilapidated, with peeling paint and abandoned cars on the front lawns. But even in those neighborhoods, homes were being bulldozed at a rapid pace and replaced by two-story faux Cape Cod homes that would require substantial double incomes to pay the mortgage.

Especially sobering were the large apartment complexes that consisted of brick row houses surrounding a common area. The areas surrounding the apartments were strewn with trash and abandoned belongings left behind by renters who were forced out or moved on short notice. The bones of the old brick apartments were still solid, but window frames and doors were rotting. The residents of those apartments have been ignored and abandoned by landlords, the city, the state, and society. It is easy to see why some residents in those apartments feel hopeless and disconnected from presidential politics. And yet, we spoke to occasional residents who were strong and clear in their support for Kamala Harris and Democrats up and down the ballot.

It was disappointing that we were unable to speak to more residents. On the other hand, I felt that putting a door hanger on the front doorknob was a message to the residents: “We came to talk with you. You are not forgotten. Your voice matters. Vote.”

Jill posted a video on her blog that explains the technology of canvassing. See Every Day with Jill, Final Day of Canvassing: FOR KAMALA!

Concluding Thoughts

The astronomy photo below shows the Western Veil Nebula, a remnant of an exploding star. The early universe consisted only of two elements--hydrogen and helium, the basic ingredients of stars. On the other hand, humans are made of oxygen, carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, calcium, phosphorus, potassium, sulfur, sodium, chlorine, and magnesium.

If the universe started as hydrogen and helium, where did the other “stuff” that makes up humans come from? Answer: From exploding stars. You are, therefore, made of stardust. Literally. Not figuratively. Not metaphorically. Literally. Nearly every atom in your body came from an exploding star.

So, as you anxiously wait for election returns, reflect on the fact you have the great fortune to be here in this moment because millions of exploding stars propelled matter into space that fortuitously, miraculously coalesced into you. How lucky is that?

Stay strong!

[tanadrin]

A stumbling block for both 2020 and 2024 election-stealing conspiracies is that you'd think the malefactors would bother to steal congressional races as well, but in both those years the party that won the White House lost seats in the House on net

yeah, or like why not rig state races so democrats don't crush it in north carolina or w/e? if you're gonna steal an election, don't do it in a way that's liable to leave your power fragmented

[redistrictgirl]

As of August 11th, 2024, the race for president is a dead heat.

Let's begin looking at my forecast by understanding what it represents. This map represents the median expected outcome of the presidential election - a slight win for Vice President Harris. The coloration of each state does not necessarily represent the expected margin - the less a candidate is believed to have an advantage and the more undecided voters there are in a state, the closer it moves to a lighter color. In short, the coloration represents the probability a candidate wins a state. With that foreword out of the way, let's look closer at some interesting states:

Arizona and Wisconsin are the two closest states, where Ms. Harris has a theoretical advantage. Really, these states are a coin toss. The good news for the Vice President is that polarization means that the outcome of each state isn't particularly independent, though they are different demographically, with white high school graduates and rural voters having more sway in WI and Hispanic and college-educated voters being more important in AZ.

Nevada isn't particularly important for Electoral College math outside of more fringe scenarios, but it's nice to have for downballot implications and a good temperature check for demographically-similar Arizona. Ms. Harris, then, will be pleased to have a slim edge in the state.

Pennsylvania, by contrast, is pivotal - if former president Trump wins the state, you can reasonably assume that he will win the Electoral College, given its high weight and modest resemblance to Wisconsin. However, Mr. Trump has fallen a good deal behind the Vice President in this state, with only about a one-in-three chance to carry the state. He is behind by a similar margin in Michigan, which is also demographically similar to Pennsylvania.

The South Atlantic states of North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida seem to be a bastion of strength for the former president. He has around a two-in-three chance of winning the former two and is a heavy favorite in the Sunshine State. Mr. Trump must sweep these states for the most straightforward path to the presidency.

Some fringe swing states include Minnesota, the New England states of Maine (at-large) and New Hampshire, and Virginia in Ms. Harris' column, and Texas, Iowa, Alaska(!!), and Maine's second congressional district in Mr. Trump's corner. If one of these polities flips in spite of only having 5-15% odds to do so, expect the candidate who snags it to be having a very good Election Night elsewhere.

Overall, this election is much, much closer than it was a month ago when it was a 2020 rematch. Vice President Harris has shown surprising strength in the Blue Wall and mounted a real comeback in the Southwest, but former President Trump has kept some momentum in the Southeast. In many ways, this map sticks closely to what I call the post-Dobbs coalition (for its applications in 2022), with less religious voters reverting back to the Democratic Party but minorities depolarizing in their place. This is bad news long-term for GOP aspirations, as it makes their gains very inefficient, primarily targeting safely blue states and heavily red states. It's quite the stark reversal from the early Trump era, and I'm curious to see whether that crystallizes throughout these three long, winding months.

[solarbird]

Well, here we are.

If you’re in a battleground state, there are still a few opportunities for knocking on doors, for making phone calls, until not long before polls close. Here’s one in Pennsylvania; scroll down to find more than that specific example. Here’s one in North Carolina, and one in California for Congressional races.

There’s probably more for “ballot curing” if you live in a state that does that. Look around for it. It’ll be more phone calling, mostly, trying to reach people with damaged, errantly submitted, or otherwise problematic but otherwise-valid ballots so they can come in and verify who they are and get the ballots accepted. Look for local efforts if you can.

If you have friends or family you can still talk to, who might not vote or might be on the line or gods forbid might still be voting for the fascist, these are some of the best arguments I’ve put out there. Use ’em if you can, and haul ’em to the polls yourself if that’s what’ll work, because every single vote matters now.

Abortion rights and birth control go without saying.

From yesterday, the Party of Plague going fully against vaccination

From a few days ago, Elon Musk saying Trump will crash the economy, and that’s the goal

The raw, unvarnished race hatred of the Madison Square Garden rally

Trump literally being a Hitler fanboy and wanting what Hitler had, and the GOP being onboard with that

The people who have worked with him the most have the worst things to say about him

The plan to ramp climate destruction all the way up, to keep throwing money at oil companies until there’s nothing left to throw

How to interest the lowest and most passive of low-info voters

The essential misogyny and the raw hatred of women by MAGA

What to tell people who think politics is “boring” and they want to “stay out of it,” which is, in short: an authoritarian in power means literally everything is about politics all the fucking time

Project 2025, of course

And how this election can be the last one under the Baby Boom rules, under Baby Boom politics, and how there is finally – finally – a way to move forward, if we grab it now.

Trump will almost certainly declare victory no matter what the votes are; there are rumours that he’ll do it around 10pm, but that could be leftover from 2020 when he had the same plan. Fuck that, and fuck him, and don’t take it seriously.

There has already been some violence, so it’s safe to assume there will be more, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to matter today; what will matter today will be the rapid-fire disinformation barrage – from MAGA, from Russia, from Project Veritas, and more – and the fleet of legal filings MAGA will unleash, probably before polls even close. They’ll be trying to stop voters, vote counting, and most certainly vote certification.

Of course, we all know that’s coming. And that’s why every single vote, in every district, no matter how blue, matters. It’s because the bigger the margin, the fewer people will join on to the insurrection this time around. If it’s big enough, it’ll fall apart before it can even get started.

So. I’ll be around all day today and into the night, as I have been the last few weeks; I don’t know if I’m going to do a true “liveblog” here, but I might well. If I do, I’ll do it via a root post and replies. If I don’t, look for me on Mastodon, where I will most definitely be active.

It’s election day, team. Whatever you’ve got left, it’s time to deploy it. Good luck – and good hunting.

Now get out there and win this thing.

Election Day is here

[ridenwithbiden]

Read the letter President Biden sent to House Democrats telling them to support him in the election

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden wants Democrats in Congress to know he has no intention of exiting this year's election, sending them a letter on Monday on his personal letterhead.

Here is Biden's letter to the congressional Democrats whose backing he likely needs:

"Fellow Democrats,

Now that you have returned from the July 4th recess, I want you to know that despite all the speculation in the press and elsewhere, I am firmly committed to staying in this race, to running this race to the end, and to beating Donald Trump.

I have had extensive conversations with the leadership of the party, elected officials, rank and file members, and most importantly, Democratic voters over these past 10 days or so. I have heard the concerns that people have — their good faith fears and worries about what is at stake in this election. I am not blind to them. Believe me, I know better than anyone the responsibility and the burden the nominee of our party carries. I carried it in 2020 when the fate of our nation was at stake. I also know these concerns come from a place of real respect for my lifetime of public service and my record as President, and I have been moved by the expressions of affection for me from so many who have known me well and supported me over the course of my public life. I’ve been grateful for the rock-solid, steadfast support from so many elected Democrats in Congress and all across the country and taken great strength from the resolve and determination I’ve seen from so many voters and grassroots supporters even in the hardest of weeks.

I can respond to all this by saying clearly and unequivocally: I wouldn’t be running again if I did not absolutely believe I was the best person to beat Donald Trump in 2024.

We had a Democratic nomination process and the voters have spoken clearly and decisively. I received over 14 million votes, 87% of the votes cast across the entire nominating process. I have nearly 3,000 delegates, making me the presumptive nominee of our party by a wide margin.

This was a process open to anyone who wanted to run. Only three people chose to challenge me. One fared so badly that he left the primaries to run as an independent. Another attacked me for being too old and was soundly defeated. The voters of the Democratic Party have voted. They have chosen me to be the nominee of the party.

Do we now just say this process didn’t matter? That the voters don’t have a say?

I decline to do that. I feel a deep obligation to the faith and the trust the voters of the Democratic Party have placed in me to run this year. It was their decision to make. Not the press, not the pundits, not the big donors, not any selected group of individuals, no matter how well intentioned. The voters — and the voters alone — decide the nominee of the Democratic Party. How can we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that.

I have no doubt that I — and we — can and will beat Donald Trump. We have an historic record of success to run on. From creating over 15 million jobs (including 200,000 just last month), reaching historic lows on unemployment, to revitalizing American manufacturing with 800,000 jobs, to protecting and expanding affordable health care, to rebuilding America’s roads, bridges, highways, ports and airports, and water systems, to beating Big Pharma and lowering the cost of prescription drugs, including $35 a month insulin for seniors, to providing student debt relief for nearly 5 million Americans to an historic investment in combatting climate change.

More importantly, we have an economic vision to run on that soundly beats Trump and the MAGA Republicans. They are siding with the wealthy and the big corporations and we are siding with the working people of America. It wasn’t an isolated moment for Trump to stand at Mar-A-Lago and tell the oil industry they should give him $1 billion and he will do whatever they want.

That’s whose side Trump and the MAGA Republicans are on. Trump and the MAGA Republicans want another $5 trillion in tax cuts for rich people so they can cut Social Security and Medicare. We will never let that happen. Its trickle-down economics on steroids. We know the way to build the economy is from the middle out and the bottom up, not the top down. We are finally going to make the rich and big corporations pay their fair share of taxes in this country. The MAGA party is also still determined to repeal the Affordable Care Act, which could throw 45 million Americans off their coverage. We will never let that happen either. Trump got rich denying rental housing to Black people. We have a plan to build 2 million new housing units in America. They want to let Big Pharma charge as much as they want again. What do you think America’s seniors will think when they know Trump and the MAGA Republicans want to take away their $35 insulin — as well as the $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket prescription costs we Democrats just got them? Or what do you think American families are going to think when they find out Trump and the MAGA Republicans want to hit them with a new $2,500 national sales tax on all the imported products they buy.

We are the ones lowering costs for families — from health care to prescription drugs to student debt to housing. We are the ones protecting Social Security and Medicare. Everything they're proposing raises costs for most Americans — except their tax cuts which will go to the rich.

We are protecting the freedoms of Americans. Trump and the MAGA Republicans are taking them away. They have already for the first time in history taken away a fundamental freedom from the American people by overturning Roe v. Wade. They have decided politicians should make the most personal of decisions that should be made by women and their doctors and those closest to them. They have already said they won’t stop there — and are going after everything from contraception to IVF to the right to marry who you love. And they have made it clear they will ban abortion nationwide. We will let none of that happen. I have made it clear that if Kamala and I are reelected, and the nation elects a Democratic House and Senate, we will make Roe v. Wade the law of the land again. We are the ones who will bring real Supreme Court reform; Donald Trump and his majority want more of the same from the Court, and the chance to add to the right-wing majority they built by subverting the norms and principles of the nomination and confirmation process.

And we are standing up for American democracy. After January 6th, Trump has proven that he is unfit to ever hold the office of President. We can never allow him anywhere near that office again. And we never will.

My fellow Democrats — we have the record, the vision, and the fundamental commitment to America’s freedoms and our Democracy to win.

The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end. We have one job. And that is to beat Donald Trump. We have 42 days to the Democratic Convention and 119 days to the general election. Any weakening of resolve or lack of clarity about the task ahead only helps Trump and hurts us. It is time to come together, move forward as a unified party, and defeat Donald Trump."

Sincerely,

Joe Biden

Joseph R. Biden Jr.

President of the United States of America

July 8, 2024|Updated July 8, 2024 11:48 a.m.

[batboyblog]

Now we need to get even more people out to vote for biden because the most recent thing that happened to trump is absolutely going to radicalize right-wingers and some people who were on the fence, regardless of what the outcome is. I'm so terrified.

sadly we live in age of political violence, just off the top of my head someone shooting up the Congressional Republican baseball team and nearly killing Steve Scalise in 2017, the guy who mailed pipe bombs to Obama, Biden, Hillary Clinton and George Soros in 2018, the plot to kidnap Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer in 2020, the guy who nearly beat Paul Pelosi to death with a hammer when he tried to kidnap Nancy Pelosi in 2022, and the attempt to stab Republican Congressman and candidate for governor Lee Zeldin on stage at a rally also in 2022.

So sadly our political system has a cancer of violence, we don't know why right now this person took a shot at Trump, if it was political or someone wanted to be famous or he thought Trump was an alien we do not know why.

whatever the reason I don't think it'll change the race very much, I do worry what Trump will say, Republican Congressmen have already said wild and insane things about this being Biden's orders, so thats unlikely to make our problem of political violence better.

oh and it was, yet again, an AR-15 style weapon, so you know, I guess thoughts and prayers?

[monstrousgourmandizingcats]

Men ain't the problem grow up 🤣🤣 white women voted trump

Well, yes and no.

Yes, white women are an example of a demographic the majority of which voted for Trump. They've done so three times in a row now and we've been hearing for eight years that there's a problem here. Everyone knows it and it isn't really new or productive information, especially since they did not move towards Trump in this election, which most other demographics did. It was something like 55% for Trump in 2020 and 52% this time,* and yet in the nationwide popular vote he gained four points. That's a pretty significant leftward shift in an increasingly right-wing electorate. Those 52% of white women still need to take a hard look at themselves, though, as does everyone who voted for Trump, because fascism offers nothing of value to anyone. (Even the so-called captains of industry like Musk and Bezos have to live in fear of getting on the ruling clique's bad side, and the ruling clique in turn have to live in fear of one another.)

The reason a lot of people are focusing on men and gender with this election, even though the overall gender gap didn't really grow that much, is that the groups that moved the most towards Trump are types of men with a preexisting reputation for being fixated on masculinity and perceived threats to it--Latinos, Gen Z men, men in some other ethnic and age groups as well but those are the two big ones. Whether or not this is a fair reputation is another question, but both campaigns acted as if it was while the election was ongoing. The Trump-Vance campaign was explicitly misogynistic and masculist.† Even the Harris-Walz campaign often seemed to be thinking as if the median voter was some kind of softcore MRA and Walz had to act as macho as possible to win them over, rather than touting his progressive accomplishments in Minnesota, which are considerable. This seems to have been true, because these are, again, the groups that shifted towards Trump by enough to yield a different election result nationally. If Candidate A gets 47% of the vote one year and then 51% or so four years later, the group that went from 55% to 52% is, mathematically, less at fault for that than are groups that went from 36% to 55% (Latinos) or 45% to 60% (Gen Z men). Those are massive, massive lurches towards Trump, and there's compelling evidence that, among some of the smaller subgroups of men that I alluded to above, it was even worse.

This isn't to say that that 52% of white women is off the hook; again, fascism ultimately offers nothing good to anyone, and therefore anybody who votes for it is a world-historically malicious and/or gullible motherfucker, regardless of who they are and why they did it. But it is to say that we've been discussing the political woes of the dang dirty white women for eight fucking years now, and now we have plenty of other groups full of bad faith and false consciousness to worry about too.

*Everything I'm saying about how different demographics shifted is an estimate, because this isn't an exact science. You can't scrutinize people's ballots based on their race or gender or religion. You have to make educated guesses based on how different geographic areas voted and how people claim to have voted in exit polls. For once, the US makes this easier than some other countries, because we report vote totals with more geographic specificity; we can see how neighborhoods voted, not just cities or counties or Congressional districts.

†In addition to manipulating resentments between different minority groups, something Trump had never successfully done before; he improved with Hindus by bashing Muslims, improved with Muslims by bashing Jews, improved with Orthodox Jews (but not non-Orthodox Jews, who held the line for the center-left despite the serious tensions of the past year) by bashing Muslims...Vance even tried to improve with gay men by bashing other types of LGBT people, although it's not clear if this one worked or not.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Martha Stoddard at Omaha World-Herald:

LINCOLN — Nebraska appears unlikely to adopt a winner-take-all model of awarding Electoral College votes, despite renewed pressure from prominent Republicans, according to a key state senator. That pressure included a visit to the state by U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and a letter supporting the change signed by all five members of Nebraska's congressional delegation Wednesday. 

The South Carolina Republican met with Gov. Jim Pillen and several Republican state senators to call for Nebraska to ditch its system of awarding three of its five electoral votes based on the winner in each of the three congressional districts. State Sen. Loren Lippincott of Central City said Graham gave an impassioned speech about the potential consequences of Nebraska's current system, namely the possibility that the state could provide the vote needed for a Democratic victory in the presidential race.  [...]

The letter from the congressional delegation, all of whom are Republican, did not change any minds either, he said. The letter was sent to Gov. Jim Pillen and Speaker of the Legislature John Arch of La Vista. It said Nebraska should join 48 other states in using the winner-take-all allocation system, arguing that the state should speak with a united voice in presidential elections. [...]

"At this time, I have not yet received the concrete and public indication that 33 senators would vote for WTA (winner-take-all)," he said. "If that changes, I will enthusiastically call a special session.”

Any changes would have to occur before the Nov. 5 election, according to the Secretary of State's Office. Federal law prohibits any changes in law affecting an election after it occurs.  Nebraska and Maine are the only states that allow their electoral votes to be split. In every other state, all electoral votes are awarded based on the statewide winner. Nebraska has divided its electoral votes twice, leading some to dub Omaha the "Blue Dot" on the electoral map. The first time was in 2008, when the Omaha-area 2nd District's electoral vote went to Democrat Barack Obama and the rest of the state's went to Republican John McCain.

In 2020, the 2nd District vote went to Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate who went on to win the national election, and the others to Donald Trump, the GOP candidate.

Republicans in Nebraska are seeking to rig the Electoral College by changing Nebraska back to winner-take-all like the other 48 states and by weakening Omaha’s voice in the process. As of now, they are set to be short in their quest to upend election rules.

See Also:

HuffPost: In Late Push To Help Trump, Nebraska GOP Might Take An Electoral Vote Away From Kamala Harris

[arizonaconservativegal]

Why does it take so long for AZ to count votes?

Honestly it's always taken us this long. I remember waiting days to find out how one of the congressional races went way back in 2014. But our top of ticket races were never close so it was obvious early in the count who won those so no one cared how long the full thing took.

The reason we're slow is that we are a very heavy mail ballot state and those take a lot of time to process and count. Since 2020 that's been exacerbated with a surge in people dropping their mail ballots off at the polls on election day. Those are the bulk of the straggler ballots at the moment. Obviously we can't start processing your ballot until after we receive it so those "late-earlies" are always the slowest and last thing to count.

Starting next cycle, if you drop off your ballot on election day, you'll verify your identity on site the same way a traditional in-person voter would have to, which means we'll be able to reduce processing time for these and hopefully get the count finished faster. I'll believe that when I see it but I think it will be a good step in general.

[mariacallous]

As November 5 draws closer, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) warned on Wednesday that malicious foreign influence operations launched by Russia, China, and Iran against the US presidential election are continuing to evolve and should not be ignored even though they have come to feel inevitable. In the group's fifth report, researchers emphasize the range of ongoing activities as well as the inevitability that attackers will work to stoke doubts about the integrity of the election in its aftermath.

In spite of escalating conflict in the Middle East, Microsoft says that Iran has been able to keep up its operations targeting the US election, particularly targeting the Trump campaign and attempting to foment anti-Israel sentiment. Russian actors, meanwhile, have been focused on targeting the Harris campaign with character attacks and AI-generated content, including deepfakes. And China has shifted its focus in recent weeks, researchers say, to target down-ballot Republican candidates as well as sitting members of Congress who promote policies adversarial to China or in conflict with its interests.

Crucially, MTAC says it is all but certain that these actors will attempt to stoke division and mistrust in vote security on Election Day and in its immediate aftermath.

“As MTAC observed during the 2020 presidential cycle, foreign adversaries will amplify claims of election rigging, voter fraud, or other election integrity issues to sow chaos among the US electorate and undermine international confidence in US political stability,” the researchers wrote in their report.

As the 2024 campaign season enters its final phase, the researchers say that they expect to see AI-generated media continuing to show up in new campaigns, particularly because content can spread so rapidly in the charged period immediately around Election Day. The report also notes that Microsoft has detected Iranian actors probing election-related websites and media outlets, “suggesting preparations for more direct influence operations as Election Day nears.”

Chinese actors focusing on US congressional races and other figures also indicates a fluency and far-reaching approach to deploying influence operations. China-backed groups have recently launched campaigns against US representative Barry Moore, and US senators Marsha Blackburn and Marco Rubio (who is not currently up for reelection), pushing corruption allegations and promoting opposing candidates.

MTAC says that many influence campaigns from all of the actors fail to gain traction. But the efforts are still significant, because the narratives that do break through can have significant impact, and the activity in general contributes to the volume and intensity of false and misleading claims circulating in the information landscape surrounding the election.

“History has shown that the ability of foreign actors to rapidly distribute deceptive content can significantly impact public perception and electoral outcomes,” MTAC general manager Clint Watts wrote in a blog post on Wednesday. “With a particular focus on the 48 hours before and after Election Day, voters, government institutions, candidates and parties must remain vigilant to deceptive and suspicious activity online.”