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smolbeandrabbles · 6 years

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Sway Pt. 6 - Danny Rayburn x Reader (Bloodline)

Part 1 / Part 2 / Part 3 / Part 4 / Part 5 / Here / Part 7 / Part 8 / Part 9 / Part 10

Authors Note: ‘Better At Being Who I Am’ (Jason Aldean) Is angst theme GOALS. Whilst I always look for lyrics to suit the overall chapter theme, I also like looking for quotes. Two from Bloodline in particular hit me hard during season one; so not only is this part based on them… But I will also be using them during the part… It’s a pretty heavy part, I interspersed some lighter moments, because it’s not always all bad… even when things aren’t going great for our boy…

I wanted to note this chapter takes place over a period of years and is kinda like... the “Lowlights” of those years.

Disclaimer: Direct Quotes from Bloodline season 1 episode 6 & 11 used! Vaguely in context…! This is where I change Canon a little. He is no longer in jail when the resturant burns down... Because I had this idea before I found that out and I didn’t want to change it.

“Okay. Try this. I don’t care about you. You don’t mean anything to me. And if I mean something to you… You mean less than nothing to me.” Danny Rayburn, Season 1, Episode 6.

“I don’t hate you! I could never hate you! That’s my Fucking problem!” John Rayburn, Season 1, Episode 11.

Premise: Danny was known to go off the rails, you thought you’d seen it all. Until the day his restaurant burned down…

Word Count: 9492 (oh yeah. The long haul.)

Warnings: This part is pretty angsty. Essentially it details where in your relationship / pre-to-the-series that Danny’s life starts to fall apart. Drinking/Underage Drinking/Drug Mis-use/Swearing/

What doesn't destroy you Leaves you broken instead Got a hole in my soul growing deeper and deeper And I can't take One more moment of this silence The loneliness is haunting me And the weight of the worlds getting harder to hold up

I'm not OK and it's not all right Won't you drag the lake and bring me home again

Who will fix me now? Dive in when I'm down? Save me from myself Don't let me drown Who will make me fight? Drag me out alive? Save me from myself Don't let me drown

'Cause you know that I can't do this on my own…

Danny’s Apartment, Miami - PM

Whilst Danny had told you he’d move in (Although, it had taken him about five minutes to actually talk in complete sentences) he’d always wanted to keep that little bit of just in case independence for himself. He told you this one morning over breakfast like it wasn’t a big deal – he was simply moving from his apartment into a newer one. “Oh really? Need help?” “Well. As you know the majority is in boxes. But I’d appreciate another car… Yeah.” “So where are you moving?” “First floor, one floor. Detached. Lot bigger. I was just thinking for Nolan, y’know… If he ever wants to come and stay… It’s a little better.” “I totally get it. AND I think it’s a great idea.” You understood Danny’s hesitancy of introducing Nolan to the apartment you lived in, judging on Danny’s own initial reactions. “Do you want to see it first?” “Danny…” You sighed, shaking your head “It’s your apartment! You go for it.” “Well, I want to know if I’m making the right choice.” “…What does your heart say?” “My heart…?” He looked at you questioningly but then changed his mind “…Says yes…” “Then your decision is made. I’ll see it, when I help you move in!”

You actually had a hard job of moving his boxes. Because your first night together came flooding back at everything you saw and everything you touched. This would be the final time.

Danny clearly couldn't care less - he was always in between with this place - now where he was couldn’t be clearer to him. But you were slow and careful with everything, and it didn't escape his notice. "What?" he walked past you with another box "I dunno I just... This is the first impression I really got of you..." "Yeah. I'd rather not think on that. It was such a great impression you didn't call me for two days. Heck if you hadn't been persuaded into my restaurant I'd still be waiting...!" "...But I was right." "Owww...!" his voice echoed down the stairs, making you laugh as you followed "Having said that... We really should have had one last night here. For old times sake..." he gave a shrug "just have to christen the new place instead." "Do you ever stop!" "When I think about you?" he paused for effect, to pretend he was doing just that "No." He pushed his fingers to his lips "Not really." You smacked his arm, before walking back upstairs "C'mon baby! With a body like yours!?! How can I not!!! That would be injustice!!" "Danny SHUT UP!!" you knew he'd said it louder just to catch the attention of everyone that might be within earshot. His grin told you that too. He followed you; “It’s literally the second thing we ever did. And it was YOUR idea. I'm the innocent party in this." "You knew what you were doing..." you swung around the door, now the place was almost bare it had more space than Danny had ever made it look like it did. "Yeah, well you're still here... Can you imagine if I didn't! Oh, man..." Even he had to hesitate as he looked at the last box. You watched him as he picked it up carefully, but stood for a good thirty seconds, before turning to you like he wasn't so sure what to do. You sighed;" Alright, give this place the send-off it deserves... Take me dancing." He smiled "in Little Havana?" "That exact dance floor." "I still get to take you back to the new place?" "Depends what the new place is like. Don't it." he remembered you hadn't seen it yet. "You'll like it. I've already started on fixing it up, see!!! Your boyfriend is just THAT considerate!" he gave a wink "Whatever he says..." you threw an arm around him "…I didn't spend nearly enough time here..." "Oh come on. You won't miss it and neither will I..." he puffed his cheeks "... I'll give it this. We started here. I guess I just never would have expected it to work out. Not this well." he tapped the wall "guess I owe it more than I realised!"

His new apartment was much bigger. Ground floor and light, with distinct rooms. You were impressed. Or you WERE impressed until you started staring at his decor. It wasn't even like he was trying to make it unnoticeable. About 2ft square the canvas was the only thing on his living room wall. This was the statement piece. Which, you wouldn't have minded. Were you not staring at yourself.

You weren't looking at the camera, but it was taken on your balcony. A bright summers day, you had a glass in your hand. By the dress you were wearing it had to have been a date... And it was recent telling by the 'D' around your neck. "WHAT THE HELL IS THAT!?!" "That is you..." he was nonchalant You pointed at it "Daniel Rayburn you take it down right now!!!! You are NOT keeping that up!!!" You were turning your usual shade of red. "it's damn huge...!! I don't want it there!!!" He scoffed; "Tough. My apartment and I want you on my wall!" "When the heck did you take it!?" "I take photographs all the time! Did you NEVER realise!?" "NO!!!" you were horrified, but it only made him chuckle. "That's probably good, Candids are the best... You look beautiful up there, what's wrong with you!? You ALWAYS look beautiful I had trouble with choosing just one...!" "Well, now I gotta put you up on my wall." Eye-for-an-eye style. If that was the plan, it didn’t work. Instead you were treated to another cheeky wink. “Well, I was beginning to wonder why I wasn't..."

It’d been a few years since that day. And in those intervening years much had happened... Too much... Some of which you’d rather forget.

Beth’s Apartment, Miami - Late AM

You pulled your car up to Beth’s apartment and rested your head on the steering wheel for a moment. Danny, what the hell did you get yourself into!? What the hell did you get ME into!? Beth was nice and all – she’d called you to help Danny out more than once; which had quickly made you see why Danny didn’t want you at a lot of the parties he attended - but she didn’t particularly sound pleased with you. You knew whatever it was was Danny’s fault and she couldn’t tell you over the phone, but she was certainly angry and nothing would do other than you driving out here to pick him up. You hopped out of your car and ascended to her apartment. You barely got to knock before she wrenched it open – she certainly looked angry. And you, without context weren’t exactly sure how to react; “Hi Be-” “Do you have ANY idea what your JACKASS of a boyfriend has just put me through!?!” Oh dear… “No. What’s he done?” “I just had to BAIL him from JAIL. BAIL HIM. ME!!” You furrowed your eyebrows together “…And I can pay you back…Beth, I’m sorry I don’t know why he wouldn’t…” You fished your phone out of your bag in preparation to transfer her the amount “I DAMN WELL DO!!” She stopped yelling at the expression on your face and took a deep breath, still sounding angry, she put her hands to her head “I’m sorry. I shouldn’t be yelling at you… I just…” she folded her arms; “He won’t list you, Ms.Ervin because if it gets back to your family or leaks to the press that the daughter of Jack Ervin is dating the guy that held up a drug store with a gun and then was caught selling and in possession of said drugs, he knows he’ll fuck everything up.” You knew your mouth was hanging open; “He WHAT!?” “That’s what they told me!” “God, Danny!!!” You placed a hand to your forehead “Geez… Beth, I’m sorry… How much do I owe you.” “…It’s not even about the money, Y/N… He better damn well pay you back.” She told you the figure and you shook your head “You didn’t have to do this…” You handed your phone over after typing out an almost eyewatering $8500 “…It’ll transfer instantly.” “I couldn’t just leave him there… He’d get stuck in the system… I mean, even I know he’s been through enough… Then what about you?” “Next time, just call me and I’ll go down.” “Well, we both better hope for his sake there isn’t a next time.” She took the phone from you apologetically as she typed her account in; “He’s still here?” “Yeah. I’m not letting him walk out there alone…” she opened her door, “C’mon.” Danny was sitting with his head between his legs and his hands over his face, Beth kicked his foot. “Time to go, Rayburn! Get out of my house.” He looked up to voice the obvious question, when he spotted you and his face almost went white. He turned to her again; “YOU CALLED HER!?!” “Of COURSE I called her!!” “I told you NOT to call her!!” “Well who else was going to come get you Danny!? Hmm? No way after that you are going home alone.” She pushed his back to get him to stand himself; “Now go home!” She wandered into the back of her apartment “Also! You owe your girlfriend the bail money she just paid me! Do not screw this one up!!!” He was silent as his eyes followed her and then he turned back to you. You weren’t intent on staying very long, standing in the doorway you flicked your head and walked outside. He scrambled to follow you; “Y/N! Y/N! It’s not what you…! God, I’m sorry! I’m so sorry..!” You stopped on the stairs and turned to him, you didn’t feel angry but knew you looked it at the way he stopped. “Danny. I don’t want to hear it. I just want to get you home.”

He slumped into the passenger seat and chewed his lip. You took a deep breath and started the engine. You didn’t like it when Danny got quiet – it meant he was calculating, it meant he was upset or worse... And you knew which one it was. “…Can I light up.” “NO.” “Y/N…” “NO! Danny, when has it ever been OKAY to smoke in my car!” “But I really need to-!” “NO. Don’t push it! Ok?!” He got quiet again and just stared out of the window. Fidgeting the whole way with the pack of cigarettes, he tapped his foot to a beat that wasn’t there... Truth was you weren’t exactly sure what to say to him – what he’d done was serious, and he clearly wasn’t blameless. You just wondered how in the hell he’d gotten himself into it. You wanted answers, but he was hurting, and that hurt you. You rolled the 4 x 4 into your parking spot after what felt like hours but was barely a 30-minute drive. You both sat in silence for a moment… You were staring out of your own window, before you took up the same position against your wheel again. Why? He noticed this and turned to you; “Y/N…” When you didn’t respond he tried again; “I know… I fucked up. Like I seriously fucked up. I get it… And I’m sorry… I’m really sorry… and you have, every, right to be mad at me… And I don’t… Well, I guess the problem is I DID know what I was thinking but I… I wanted to protect you from… This whole… God… I’m such a mess…” He sighed and opened his car door; “…Okay, you know what, you’re right. You don’t want to hear it and you don’t need this. Lemmie just call a cab, and I’ll get back to my apartment-” You moved, grabbing his hand as he was half way out of the vehicle; “You are NOT going anywhere. Danny Rayburn.” You shook your head “Yeah. You probably did fuck up. Considering what Beth told me. But don’t you DARE think about walking out of here.” You took his hand again and held it firmly upon exiting your vehicle. Pulling him through the security door and across the lobby to the lift bank; “If this ever happens again will you PLEASE call me?” “It wasn’t even supposed to go down like this…” The lift pinged and you both entered, as you pressed the button to your floor; “So you weren’t meant to get caught. Danny, that doesn’t make robbing the damn store in the first place alright!!!” “I know, and I’m sorry!” “You don’t have to say sorry to me. I’m not mad at you!!” Well, maybe you were a little “…I’m frustrated. You have Nolan, you have your restaurant, you have me!! You don’t need to do this!” “I told you, that restaurant does not pay all the bills.” He owed people, that’s what he was telling you, without saying it. “Danny, look at my family! LOOK at me!! TRUST me, you do not need to go anywhere else for money.” “NO! I can’t take it from you! Or your family!” “It’d be a loan, it’d be fine!” “NO.” He’d point blank refused to let you help out before, but honestly, if he was going to make money illegally you didn’t know why he was being so stubborn about this. Getting into debt with your parents, or you, would not be the same as falling in with bad people. You opened your apartment door and pointed to the balcony; “Now, you can light up… Just… give me a second…” He watched you go… then crossed your kitchen and living room, sliding open the balcony door – he pulled a cigarette from the pack and flicked the lighter taking a drag. Were you mad at him? You said you weren’t. But you looked mad, or maybe you looked hurt. Or maybe both… He could understand why you would be both. He was nearly two cigarettes down when you joined him outside. You pressed your hands into the metal railing and the wind played with your hair as you stared out towards the ocean. He took another drag of his cigarette before he turned to you… Then he stopped and squinted; “…Oh…Oh…Darlin’…” He closed the few steps between you “…Have you been cryin’?” You didn’t answer, so he reached out and turned your face towards him; “God… I’m so sorry…” Just how many times was he going to say that line? You shook your head, dipping from his line of sight, and pulled him close to you; “Do you have ANY idea what could have happened if it had gone wrong!? Danny… Don’t you EVER do something like this again…” “…I promise…” He whispered it softly, “Baby, I promise…” The last thing Danny Rayburn ever wanted was to make you cry… You squeezed him tighter to you, so you could feel that calm and steady heartbeat of his reverberate through your body, then you let him go, gently. Wiping your eyes, you looked into his. “I love you… Danny. I love you. But sometimes, the people you hang out with… some of the things you do. Baby, you scare me…” You shook your head gently, “Please… Stop…” He pondered your words for a moment, taking another drag from his cigarette, but he knew he wasn’t sure what to say. “I feel like I knew that….” And he was sure he did “…I’m sorry… I’m not thinkin’ and I think you know that… But, I’ma try… for you… and for Nolan. Ok?” You nodded, you knew Danny was better than this. But it was a long hard road for him – you just wanted to see him right on it. “Okay…” You leant up to kiss him, and he accepted by kissing you back. “I love you, too…” This time when he pressed his cigarette to his lips his look was sincere. And you knew he meant it. REALLY meant it.

Danny’s Apartment / Miami Coast Line - Noon/Late

You sung along to your radio all the way to Danny’s apartment. It wasn’t often he insisted staying in his own, he just still wasn’t ready to introduce Nolan to yours yet. It made sense, Nolan was a young impressionable teen… Danny was intent on making the best impression. You were dancing in the front seat, windows down, music blasting – shades on. It was nearly mid-day and the sun was high but the breeze off the water today was cool. You turned into the apartment complex and rolled to a stop. Even with the radio off you were still humming along as you stepped out of the car. And you realised you had until you walked up to Danny’s front door to decide on something for you all to do today… Well. There was always the boat… Maybe not the one you’d taken Danny on though… too many memories completely inappropriate to be reminded of around his teenage son. You shouldered your bag and pushed your shades into your hair. By the time you’d looked up you realised they were both already outside… Geez, give a girl a minute…! You began walking up the path, and opened your mouth to greet Nolan. Then stopped when you realised that he wasn’t smiling as he started down the path towards you; “Hey…You, okay?” He barely stopped “No.” “…Nolan!” “No, you know what it’s fine!” “Where are you--!?” “Anywhere else!” He yelled, taking off down the sidewalk. You looked on after him, for a few seconds before turning to Danny, who was standing in the door arms folded; you pointed behind you – “What…?” “It doesn’t matter.” “Doesn’t!?” You turned back to Nolan, now nearly half way down the street “DANNY! Did you guys have an argument?!” You checked your watch, “You can’t have been back from the restaurant 20 minutes! What happened!” “Y/N – It doesn’t matter.” “Of course it matters!” “Why?” He gave a nonchalant shrug, “He’s made it perfectly clear he doesn’t want to see me.” He closed the door behind him and shuffled down the path to you. You looked to him, “But we were gonna…” “Yeah, well. Not anymore. Just let him go.” “You don’t mean that…” You could see he was trying to keep his face from betraying him “…Danny… you don’t…” You turned back to Nolan, “Oh. Geez…! NOLAN WAIT!!” You ran back down the path; “What the hell are you doing!?” Danny called after you, making you turn back; “I won’t watch your son walk away from you Danny. I can’t…!” For one, you knew it would break your heart. You had to run to catch up with him; “Nolan! Nolan… wait up…” It was almost a surprise that he did in fact stop and turn as you jogged to a stop; “…I don’t need to know what it was about…” You held your hands up “Hell, I know – but equally I know I don’t know…!” Danny could be difficult, and you couldn’t fathom what his relationship with Nolan really was. Danny wanted to pour as much into Nolan as he did keep him at arm’s length. It hurt the teen more than Danny thought it did. “…Look, I wanted this to be a good day for you… So… If you want to do something… We can just… I’d just... Really appreciate it if you didn’t leave.” “…He doesn’t care.” “No, he only acts that way. And it’s a dumb way to act… He’s good at pushing people away when he cares… It’s a constant uphill battle. You shouldn’t have to fight it…” you threw your arms as if to say hell if you could ever understand Danny Rayburn “… The problem is having to accept we do. Look, I got a good plan going… And I’d like you to be part of it. But, only if you want to sweetie.” You really really liked Nolan. You weren’t about to watch Danny waste this. He huffed and folded his arms too, looking away from you and thinking on it for far longer than he had spent making up his mind; a typical teenager. “Does he have to come?” You laughed, “Just push him off the Yacht, you’ll feel better. Honest.” You turned back to unlock your car that Danny was now leaning against, watching you both shyly. “Sorry!? Did you just say Yacht!?” Nolan then jogged to keep up with you “You have a yacht!? Awesome!” And it almost sounded genuine. “Can I leave you two alone for five minutes without you wanting to walk all the way back. Because you will be walking from here…” Your question was more directed at Danny, and you only received a half nod. Neither of them had spoken more than about two words yet. You’d rectify that. You were determined to rectify that. You left the car, hopeful it might give them some time to cool off and apologise for whatever... But fully expecting to see your dad’s assistant greeting you with keys, you were surprised to discover that it was him. “Papa?!” “I’m only working on the waterfront,” He pointed in an unclear direction; “thought I’d come see your boys.” “I left them in the car!” You indicated behind you “but I’ll go get ‘em...” “I’ll meet you down there!” He was already walking down the pier. You shook your head, it was all men... you were pretty sure. ALL of them were like this! You wandered back to your 4x4; it still didn’t look like they were talking... “Okay, out you get. Dad is here. Best behaviour.” Today was obviously going to be like having two kids, rather than your boyfriend and his teenage son.

They walked apart down nearly the entire pier... you wondered if it was more a game of who could hold out the longest without apologising. Honestly! They both instantly changed their attitudes as your dad stepped off the smaller vessel. “Jack!” “Danny! A pleasure as always! Nolan!! Great to see you!” He gave Danny a firm handshake, but went for a full hug with Nolan. When you first told your parents about Nolan you were wondering what they would say. At that point you shouldn’t have been surprised by their surprise reaction. You guessed it might be because they had expected a man of Danny’s age to have been in a serious relationship, or married, before. Certainly the kind of relationship where children was plausible. Of course their first reaction was, how did you feel about that and then, seen as you were totally cool with it (obviously), when they would get to meet him. Since then, your parents had invited Danny and Nolan to dinner on numerous occasions, and included Nolan in any family event. If Danny was family to them, it was only natural that Nolan would be too.

You left them to chat with your dad as you checked the boat was ready to go. Considerably smaller than the yacht it was moored next to, your dad had already seen to nearly all preparations in the time it had taken you to walk here. Your dad turned back to you “Sure you’re okay with how fast this thing goes?!” Oh here we go... if he could get a dig in at the first few times you’d been out, when he was trying to teach you how to drive NO less!!, then he would. You wondered how it had factored into the conversation this time... “I’ll be okay. It’s been a while since...!” “I’m only saying you got a couple of strong men here... one of which can actually drive a boat.” You let out a sigh, and heard both Danny and Nolan laugh. “If I can steer the other one, this’ll be just fine.” “Yeah I’m glad I got her back in one piece.” “Guess you’ll be thanking Danny for that too, huh?” You and your father both folded your arms defiantly “Yeah. He’s a good man. I’m only worried about the speed.” “I know what I’m doing.” “My red tape mark says otherwise.” This was leaving the other two cracking up. “... Oh my god... you are kidding!!!” You turned around to check; sure enough, your father had taped back the little marker he used for the top speed you were allowed to go. Back in your teens. You were sure that was just for Danny and Nolan’s entertainment. “Now you boys take care of her alright, make sure she doesn’t go too fast! And not a shade over that line!” Still chuckling they both boarded; “Don’t worry Mr.Ervin we won’t!” “We’ll have her back with you this evening. Say 9?” “Woah. Danny... 8:30, don’t go getting ahead of yourself.” Finally you could laugh at someone else. “Estrellita, no staying at the houses of other men tonight!!” He winked “... You’re lucky I trust you with this one!” “I’m in good hands dad don’t worry!” “Oh I know! I wouldn’t trust just anyone with you!” He had a sincerity that you could tell hit both Danny AND Nolan hard. Your dad held out the keys, “So? Who is getting these.” You pointed to Danny “As you’re so confident in the Rayburn’s.” Danny opened his mouth to protest but missed his chance as Jack chucked him the keys. “Be careful with her!” “I’ll get it back in one piece, Sir...” Your father chuckled, unmooring the boat “Not what I meant...!”

Danny made sure the boat ran smoothly as he headed out across the stretch of water; “You just wanna head out anywhere...” He was clearly addressing you, as you watched the Miami skyline unfurl in front of you. Nolan was at the other end of the vessel running his hands through the sea. You stood and crossed to Danny “Uh... I didn’t have a place in mind... I wasn’t going to take him where we were last time, if that’s what you mean...” “Okay...” he checked the gauges; “I’ll take her a few more miles...” you were still looking to Nolan “I’ll do it.” “What?” He turned his attention to you “Why?” You nodded back towards his son; “I don’t care what happened, but one of you needs to be the bigger man.” “Me?!” “You’re his father, Danny, yes you!” He sighed and gave you something close to a pout; “So you think this is my fault?!” “NO! I didn’t say that. I’m trying to fix it. Go... Go on…” you pushed him gently “I got this. Just... talk to him!!”

You took the boat another few miles out and let her coast perpendicular to South Beach. When you turned back they were at least talking. Both of them hunched over the side and mumbling, looking back towards the city. You left them for a little while, going through what exactly your dad had decided to ‘get ready’... The cooler was a good indication of what he thought the day would entail. You opened it; breathing a sigh of relief when you realise that he remembered Nolan was underage. You guessed as it would just be an afternoon trip you didn’t need anything more than a few good drinks. You pulled one out and popped the top. The sound made both of them turn towards you. “Oh. I notice you heard that!” Danny pointed at you, “That better be alcohol!!” “NO! It’s soda! I don’t want to be the bad influence on this one!” You took a sip, indicating to Nolan; “Aw c’mon Y/N - you really think YOU’RE the bad influence here?!” Nolan looked between you and Danny a few times before Danny realised what he was doing; “Hey-!” You both laughed at that. “But there is alcohol in there, right?!” “Looks like...” “Excellente!” Danny stood and opened the cooler up; before you realised what was going on, he had handed Nolan a bottle. Nolan thanked his father, but you weren’t so keen “Uh! That better be Non-Alcoholic young man!” He hesitated, making Danny laugh; “Aw, C’mon! Like you didn’t do a little underage drinking!” “Yeah – My parents didn’t condone it!” “His mom’s not here!” Nolan took a sip with a laugh, making you cover your eyes “Oh God! I’m not seeing this!!” “Go into international waters! You’ll be fine!” “NO! That might get me in even MORE trouble!”

“Nolan you know how to drive one of these right?!” “What?!” He looked to you, “He doesn’t. But no time like the present.” Danny took a gulp of beer. “I was gonna say, my dad put that marker on as a joke but it’s a good little marker for beginners...” “Are you serious?!?” Nolan jumped out of his seat; “You got a good teacher. I’m not too bad either.” You laughed, realising Danny was referencing you. “Oh. No. Rayburn, he’s your son!!” “Yeah alright, Ervin. Then we’ll do this together...!” “He doesn’t need my bad habits!” “At least you admit you have them!” Danny beckoned Nolan over; “C’mon. I’m sure she’ll help get the basics down...!”

You observed the hysterical exchanges going on between Nolan and Danny the whole way back to port. Glad that now they were at least laughing in each other’s company. As you watched them, framed by the boat, the water, the Miami skyline, you knew perfectly well you could stay here forever. It might not have been that kind of family… But you were a family none the less… You loved them both. Truly, you knew what you already knew. This would be long haul. Ride or die. All or nothing.

Viva Caputa, Miami - PM

You wanted to be in that restaurant. When Danny told you he was doing this you wanted nothing more than to be there. He forbid it. You absolutely were NOT setting foot in that restaurant today under any circumstances. And you continued this back-and-forth until he pulled up outside; “You should let me.” “No. Absolutely not.” “Why?! Are you scared of what I’m going to say to him?!” “I kinda am. Yeah.” You folds your arms to prove your point “You don’t think I’m scared of what he’s gonna say to you?!” No dice though. So in the car you stayed.

This was the most nerve wreaking hour of your life. Part of you thought about defying Danny and just heading into the restaurant anyway... or sneaking in to listen to the conversation. But you knew you would be betraying Danny’s trust, and you knew Robert. If he said anything, no matter how small or veiled, you wouldn’t be able to contain yourself and then there would be problems.

Eventually, Nolan wandered out of the restaurant and to the car. You raised an eyebrow; “What’s going on?” Nolan shrugged; “He told me to wait in the car...” You tapped your fingernails on the dashboard “...Robert has NO idea I’m here does he.” “Nope.” You shook your head, staring back at the door from the window... “What did you think?” “Of Robert...? He’s uh... okay, I guess. I mean, I thanked him... He doesn’t need to send money every month.” You opened your mouth and then decided to hold your tongue. Nolan was right, you guessed, but he was also their Grandson... and if they knew about him they should have been doing a lot damn more than sending money each month. It was another while later that Danny and Robert exited the restaurant. They said goodbye like strangers, and went separate ways... you figured this couldn’t be good. Danny took a deep breath before he opened the car door; “Alright. Let’s go.” “Did it go okay?” “It went Ok.” But he didn’t look at you, and his voice was level. Something was clearly off, because of Danny had got what he wanted he’d be running his mouth. You let it go, if only for Nolan’s sake. Danny started the engine and turned back to Nolan “Thank you for doing this...” “No problem dad! It was kinda good to meet him.” You watched Danny carefully, but he was being just as careful not to show anything on his face... “Yeah... you’re right...” The drive back to Nolan and Eve’s was quiet. Each of you preoccupied with your own thoughts. You clearly desperate to say something and Danny swearing you to silence with his body language alone. Nolan hopefully none the wiser... but he was a smart kid, so he probably figured something was going on.

You only opened your mouth once Danny pulled away from the curb; “Tell me what happened.” He released the breath he’d been holding waiting for you to say it; “With Nolan he was actually quite amicable. Which I’m glad of... because the last thing I want is him to cause my kid any problems... with me? Well... You know my dad.” “Danny...” you shook your head “...So he said no?” “Not exactly.” “Baby it’s clear he didn’t say yes...” Danny shook his head “No. He made me chose.” “What?!” “Money for the restaurant. Or the money he provides for Nolan.” You were almost speechless. That money was hush money for a start, and seen as Danny had already confessed to you his parents tried to stop Nolan from ever happening, it made you even more angry. Robert was making Danny choose between arguably his greatest achievement and his dream. You weren’t having it. “And?” He gave a half laugh “I chose Nolan. No question.” You were grateful. But it was also clear Danny had no other choice. That didn’t stop you from being pissed that after all Danny’s hard work and what he had to show for it his family still treated him SO badly. It was horrific for you to think that after everything Danny still literally couldn’t do anything right in the eyes of his own family. And you damned every single one of them.

“Danny... that’s just... absolutely... your family, your parents, are just despicable...” He knew there was more to your statement than just this single event. Suddenly you realised this has nothing to do with Sarah, Sarah was an excuse. Sarah was long in the past… Danny had made mistakes (with no wonder WHY!!) and you’d seen them. But to tear him down when he’d done all this ALONE was the most heart-breaking thing. It was sick and to your horror you knew it’s never going to stop. It should have ended on his accomplishment with the restaurant alone. Danny had bet on himself and STILL... it was obvious to you now if it wasn’t clear before; HE was too good for them. He just gave a helpless shrug “What can I do about it?” He laughed “He actually asked me to go to my siblings! Can you believe that?! Meg and Kevin - I don’t think so... and John? He’s given me enough... he’s a better big brother than I am...” You folded your arms; “Screw it. Danny you don’t need them...” shaking your head you looked out the window again “You know I’m so angry that I don’t even know what to say but I just can’t shut up!!” He laughed; “Exactly why you being there would not have been a good idea...” “How are my parents friends with yours?!” “Oh yeah cuz this is the exterior my dad gives off...” he waved his hand “... what do your parents know.” “What I know is that my parents are better parents to you than your own.” He tipped his head “That’s not untrue... they certainly treat Nolan like family.” “Well then.” You ran your hands through you hair and breathed out “Danny I’m sorry.” “You keep sayin’ that... but you can’t change them. Or the past.” “If they continue to use what happened as an excuse... then I think it’s them that needs to change.” You placed your hand over his on the wheel “You’ve done enough. And you have so much more to show for it than them. And More importantly Danny. You’re a better person, and they can’t ever take that from you.” He lifted your hand to his lips and kissed your knuckles, mumbling against your skin “…That’s why I have you…”

Viva Caputa, Miami - AM Your phone rang in the middle of an important work meeting. Buzzing loudly against the table you picked it up so not to disturb your colleagues train of thought. Catching a glimpse of the caller, however, made you stop in your tracks. He barely ever called you when you were working. And never on your work phone. “Sorry. I have to take this!” Your boss waved you out, understanding, and you picked up on the final ring which clearly didn't help whatever the situation was; “Dan-” you barely got his name out, “Y/N..! Oh T-thank God-I- I...” He sounded panicked and he was most certainly in tears. “My God... Danny what's wrong??” “Just... G-Get down here. Please.” “To the restaurant? Danny are you okay?” “No... Just... Please hurry.” With that he hung up, and his panic transferred to you. But now was not a time to panic. You tapped on the door to beckon Rich over, “Is everything okay?” “No. Danny doesn't call at work and not on this number ever. Somethings going on... I need to go...” He smiled “Take all the time you need, take the rest of the day at home. We'll be fine.' “You sure?” “You know this back to front. Go...! If he needs you, go!”

You drove as fast as the limit and traffic conditions let you, but a few blocks out you could see the smoke rising. No, please God no... As you got even closer water was running all over the street from the fire trucks present. And you couldn't park up fast enough. When you found him he was sitting in the middle of the parking lot, his legs crossed. Staring at the restaurant but not seeing it. He had a pack of cigarettes and his lighter in front of him, but it was like he couldn't even bring himself to calm down yet. You ran across the lot then slowed as you reached him, without hesitation you crouched to his level and threw your arms around him. “I'm sorry... I'm so, so, so sorry” You were crying too now. This was Danny's life. And it'd just gone up in flames like everything else. Eventually he responded, winding his arms tightly around you as you both sat crying in the parking lot. He was broken enough, he didn't need this, and he certainly didn't need to say anything.

It was early, and there was no-one here yet. But as people turned up for their shifts you decided to start directing them back home. Only Javier and Jason stayed. They were clearly concerned for their friend, but you kept them down the other end of the lot; “Is he gonna be OK?” Jason peered around you. Danny was still sitting in the same position you'd left him in. “I don't think it's even registered yet...” You shook your head “he's in shock. God knows what I tell Nolan...” Javier frowned “Wasn’t this Danny's life? Geez after the remodel we just went through... I feel terrible.” He was right. And Danny still owed a lot of money for that loan. You turned to them both; “You better get off home… I got him… Thank you… For staying.” “If you need anything…” Jason put his hand on your shoulder, sincere “ANYTHING. Help with Danny or… CALL me. CALL us.” You nodded, grateful and thinking you might need it before the week was out. “Thank you. Both of you…”

“Danny...” You sank back down to the floor “Danny, sweetheart we need to go... we need to let them finish up here... Baby, there’s nothing we can do...” “Y/N! N-No-! Just-! Please!” You picked him up off the floor, and he was only a little reluctant to let you tug his arm around your shoulders. You gathered the cigarettes he still hadn’t touched; “Baby, please... let me take you home...” You almost had to drag him back to the car and help him into the front seat. He still wasn’t entirely in the moment and aware of the situation... You’d done all you could here and you couldn’t watch him sit there and suffer anymore. You placed his things in his lap and wandered back around to your side. Without daring to look back at the restaurant once, you started the engine and pulled away.

So as to keep Danny moving, you took the long scenic route back to your apartment. You wanted to keep him lucid, but knew half of what you were talking was nonsense. You were talking at him and not to him... He kept flicking his lighter, back and forth, staring hard at your dashboard... You guessed it was a blessing that he hadn’t told you to shut up yet, because you needed to talk... Eventually, you ran out of things to say but you were still driving. He was still playing with his Lighter... You sighed and slowed your car down... Leaning across him you wound down his window. Danny only moved to steady the wheel for you, you sat up, looking across to him. “If you’re gonna do it... Danny...” you nodded to the window, “Please do...” He looked back to you. Danny smoked sometimes to relieve tension. You’d seen him do it to stop himself arguing, as much as he did when he had finished an argument. Of course, he smoked a lot anyway but this was another one of his ticks... He pulled one out of the pack and held it delicately between his lips. Looking across to you again, his eyes gave his question for him. Signalling you could back out. You wouldn’t. This once, you wouldn’t. When you didn’t respond he flicked his lighter and lit up. It was a long drag, and the sigh he made when he breathed out was the unhappiest you’d heard Danny in a while. **

Your Apartment, Uptown Miami - AM

About a week past where nothing really happened. Danny became quiet, withdrawn and didn’t have much of an appetite to do anything. You guessed that was better than him going and getting himself thrown in jail again. Still, that didn’t stop you from worrying all day when you departed in the morning only to come back to find him in exactly the same place you’d left him – wondering if he’d moved at all during the day. Every time you tried to broach the subject of fronting any money for him to rebuild he wasn’t having it. And you stopped trying when he seemed to only get angry about it, rather than politely saying no.

This weekend was another when you would be seeing Nolan, though. And you thought it might cheer him up. Apparently no such luck, at least not this morning. You wrapped your arms around him and kissed his shoulder; “We’re meant to pick Nolan up… you know?” “…Hmm…” That was close enough to acknowledgement “…So…Are you coming?” “…No…” You guessed it was an actual word “Baby, why not?” “…NO…” You sighed; “Well, you’re gonna be alright when he gets here, right…?” You propped yourself up on your elbow to look at him properly, he just continued staring at the wall. And for once you’d give anything to know what was going on behind those eyes. “…Yeah…Go get him.” It didn’t sound at all convincing, but you knew it would be on Danny if no one turned up for his kid. Eve was pretty much always on the edge of ‘just had it’ with Danny as it was. Better not to make her that way with you too. You dressed and got ready quickly, turning as you went to shut the bedroom door behind you; “I’ll be back within the hour, okay?” “Ok…” “Danny…” “Yes?” “I love you.” “Hm.” You shook your head. If he wasn’t going to play ball you’d just have to do something with Nolan yourself. You closed the door behind you and ran to catch the lift down to the parking lot.

“Hey!” “…Where’s dad?” “Let’s not even go there…” You waved to Eve from your driver’s seat, she smiled and waved enthusiastically back. “…We will have to see when we get back to mine.” “Oh. Well. Shit.” Nolan opened the car door, and also waving to his mom, belting himself in as you pulled away from the curb. “That sums it up yeah…” “He’s really that bad!?” “…I dunno… He’s not really… Talking. That worries me only because he talks about everything…” “I can’t imagine that.” “Yeah…” You agreed with a laugh, “You’d think it’d be okay. It is, for the first hour.” You sighed “Anyway, plans for today?” “Won’t it depend on him?” “No! If he’s not gonna come out I’m determined to take you out somewhere…” “Surprise me.” “…Fine! How’d you feel about ice-cream?” “What?” He had an edge to his voice that let you know he thought you were treating him like 6 of his 16 years. “…That’s a clear No.” “I didn’t say that!” “There’s a great little homemade ice-cream bar I know down by South Beach… Puerto Rican… You can practice your Spanish on someone who isn’t me. I haven’t even taken Danny yet so…” “Yeah… sure…” You liked that he sounded at least curious. If Nolan was to give anyone any of his teenage attitude he never gave it to you. You unlocked the door to your apartment and stepped in. Within 5 seconds, and horrified, you attempted to usher Nolan out and close the door on him before he could walk in. In vain; the kid was strong. “…Is that…?” He didn’t dare voice it either. “Shit! Danny!!” Your alcohol cupboard was also open. A half-finished bottle of vodka stood on the counter. The bottle next to it, you couldn’t read the label of, was tipped on its side and clearly finished. Across your kitchen counter, however, was a line of white powder that you weren’t stupid enough to think was sugar. Drinking was one thing, illegal substances in your apartment was quite another. What do you even do about that!?! You placed your hands against your head trying to think quickly, until there was a crash from your bedroom. At least he hadn’t left. Nolan took a step forward but you pushed him back; “NO. No, no. I got this.” “Y/N..! Do you think that’s a good idea!?” He indicated to the counter. “…If he’s high and drinking then yeah, it is. Wait here.” You crept up the corridor, knocking gently on your bedroom door - your heart was racing. When you didn’t receive a response you opened it carefully. Danny was sitting on the end of your bed, head in his hands. Amazingly the room didn’t look out of place, until you glanced to the wall, whatever liquid was in the glass was now running down it, the remains of the tumbler was shattered and covered the floor. You kicked the door to with the back of your heel; “…Danny?” Dammit, you couldn’t have hated yourself more for the timid nature of your voice. He didn’t look up “…Danny.” You tried again, a little more confident “…Baby… What…?” He groaned “Just. Leave.” “What!?” This was your apartment. And you weren’t about to leave him alone with drink AND drugs “No- What?! I’m not just gonna leave!” He made a sound like he was angry and looked at you; “GO! GET OUT!” You weren’t sure you liked his tone of voice either. “I am NOT leaving you! Don’t you dare ask me to!” He stood and you backed yourself against the door “I am NOT ASKING.” Despite this you still tried; “Danny. You are high and god knows how much you’ve drunk. You need help. RIGHT now. And I can’t leave!” He took a step forward “WHY?! WHY THE HELL DO YOU EVEN CARE Y/N!? Look at me!” You were, and you didn’t like what you were seeing “I’m a fucking MESS!” “I care because I LOVE you.” Why was he being like this!? Well, you knew WHY… But that didn’t mean you understood. He shook his head and advanced on you, and it pained you that you could feel yourself shaking; “Okay. Try this. I don’t care about you. You don’t mean anything to me. And if I mean something to you… You mean less than nothing to me.” Owch. It was like being stabbed through the heart, and you hated even more that your vision blurred and tears started running. He laughed at that, hollow. Not the man you knew. “SEE!! SEE! This is so fucking perfect! THIS!! THIS IS ME!” You couldn’t believe that for a second. You wouldn’t and you knew you were right. But you couldn’t stop how much what he had just said was hurting you, he kept yelling, but you weren’t even registering what he was saying. Only he was getting closer and you didn’t like it. He was trying to push you away, you weren’t having that. “STOP IT!” You were loud enough to stop his tirade. You shook your head, tears still running, your voice trembled, but you would not raise it; not to Danny. Not now. That’s exactly what he wanted, he wanted you to scream at him, he wanted you to tell him to leave and slam that door behind you and never see him again. You wouldn’t give him the satisfaction of being right “…I don’t know who the hell you think you are Danny Rayburn. But don’t you EVER tell me I mean nothing to you. I don’t know what is wrong with you. But I know you’re high, and you’re drunk and you are going to regret EVERYTHING you just said to me.” You pulled your bedroom door open and slammed it behind you. You weren’t sure if you could stop Danny from leaving, but you could take every set of keys that was here to try. You walked back through into the kitchen trying to dry your eyes before you got back to Nolan. But he was standing there in shock. And you realised he’d heard everything. “He can’t talk to you like that…” You took a breath; “Nolan. Don’t.” “HE CAN’T!” It took everything you had to push him back “Leave it!! Nolan! Please! I beg you just leave it!” “You’re crying! How can you say that…!!” “Nolan… Please… For me. Don’t go in there…” “…Why?” “He is not himself…” “No shit! He’s drinking and has God knows how much cocaine in him!” “Please..! Can we just… go…” Nolan sighed, because you clearly weren’t giving this one up. “Okay…” He headed towards the front door and that’s when you noticed your kitchen counter was spotless, the cupboard was closed and the empty bottle was sat for recycling. “…Did you just do this…?” “Yeah.” “What did you do with the…?” “It doesn’t matter.” “Nolan!” “It’s not here anymore. That’s all that matters.” “Does he have anymore…” Nolan blatantly lied; “I’d say not. I think he did enough to finish it.” You didn’t question that Nolan had likely found the rest somewhere and had disposed of it, but if he wanted to keep that to himself you didn’t blame him.

***

You still weren’t sure what you were going to find when you opened the door. Inserting the key you leant your head against it. “Do you want me to go in first?” You took a deep breath “Nope…” If things were better, you needed to talk to his father first. If not you weren’t about to let Danny say something stupid. The lock clicked open to the apartment looking exactly how you had left it. “Danny?” You were still met with silence. “Could he have left?” “He wouldn’t get far. I’ve got all the keys…” You walked on through, there were no signs of him, and your bedroom door was still closed; “Just let me check…” “If he starts yelling again you can’t stop me!” You turned back to Nolan; “Yeah okay… Get settled!” You opened your bedroom door. No? He wasn’t clearly in your bedroom, you glanced to the wall. The glass had disappeared from the floor, and the bed looked half made. Surely he hadn’t actually walked out of your front door? You said you weren’t leaving so he did? Well, at least he could only go back to his apartment. Then you heard it, faint with the door closed your onsuite fan hummed almost inconspicuously. You placed your bag down on the bed, also noticing his mobile was still on the bedside table. You placed your hand on the cool metal handle but it took you a good minute to open it. He was sitting with his knees up, head back against the cool tiles of your shower cubicle. His eyes were closed and he had one hand against his forehead and one over his knees. The rise and fall of his chest let you know he was at least alive. “…Danny…?” “Ugh…” He laughed, again un-genuine, “…What are you doing back…? Can’t you go hate me somewhere else…?” You shook your head. His voice was dry and it cracked in places. He coughed and took a sip from the glass of what you hoped was water next to him. “It at least sounds like you might be sober?” “Maybe…” He breathed it “Everything hurts and I’ve more than paid for it…” That left you to guess he was in here because his stomach was now empty. “…I’m such an fucking jackass…” You stepped over to the wall opposite him. “This might be the one time I don’t disagree with you.” “…I can’t believe I…” He sighed “Go on… Just… tell me you’re done. Kick me out… I get it.” “...Look at me.” He didn’t. He dipped his head before he opened his eyes. “Danny. LOOK at me.” “So I can see how disappointed you are? Or how angry or… how…” he shook his head “Scared? I can’t get that LOOK out of my head.” “Look at me.” You repeated it again, and slowly he raised his eyes to meet yours, he looked incredibly guilty. You took a deep breath; “I’m not kicking you out. OR leaving you.” “Why?! I would! After saying that!? Even in my state that was TOO far!” “Yeah, I know what you said. I know what you wanted. Because it’s easier for you, isn’t it? To deal with something by not having to deal with anyone else. But you’re stuck with me. As for Nolan…” “SHIT!” “Yeah well, he heard everything, so I’d apologise to him first.” “I haven’t even got sorry out yet. I didn’t even… SEE! This is why you should just…” He stopped for a minute and you thought he might be sick. “You okay?” “Yeah… Yeah… I…” He placed his hands on his stomach “Oh… God…” “How much did you take?” “…I did three lines… and drank something like a bottle and a half…” “THREE lines!?” “I know I know… I shouldn’t even have it.” “NO. There’s that…” He placed his arms across his knees again and rested his head against them; “Y/N... I just lost... everything... there’s nothing left... except...” he waved in the general direction of the kitchen... you shook your head.

“Daniel Rayburn you’ve never been more wrong of anything in your entire life.” He lifted his eyes to look at you, you’d called him Daniel so, this was serious “I know... The restaurant is your life. A symbol of everything you built and everything you achieved... But it is material... Baby... You have me. More importantly than that you have Nolan... And that boy... He’s going to be a great man...” “In spite of me, not because of it.” “... You’re wrong. He is going to be a great man LIKE his father is. Self-made. Resourceful. Smart.” You couldn’t keep from laughing to yourself “One hell of a looker...” You leant on your hand for a second “That’s what I love about you Danny. Not your name, who you are. Not what you came from, what you have DONE. You don’t think I would want to stick around? You’re at a low point and I know it... And you know it... But, baby, I can’t wait to be around to see the bounce back...” He sighed and looked back to you, “…Please… I’m begging you to stop looking at me like that.” “Like what?” You weren’t aware that you were looking at him like anything “Like you love me.” “Well that’s unfortunate…” You slid down the wall to his level. “I DO love you.” “After what I just said…?” “You weren’t you. Half YOUR problem is you want to push people away… I understand why. But I don’t think you understand that not everyone wants to be pushed away…” “Don’t you hate me…? You must hate me a little…?” You smiled, shaking your head with a little laugh; “I don’t hate you… I could never hate you. That’s my Fucking problem...”

@stcphstrange - We made it!! All the way here! 4 to go! ❤

#danny rayburn x reader #Danny Rayburn #Ben Mendelsohn #Bloodline #Sway #Linzi Queues Things #Linzi Writes #danny rayburn x you #Better At Being Who I Am makes me cry every time I listen to it.#Liliana #Holy shit I lost the number somewhere-!#S C R E A M I N G

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theliberaltony · 5 years

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Before last week’s debate, I argued that there was a lot of ambiguity as to who belonged in the top tier in the Democratic primary. Depending on which factors you emphasized, the top group could plausibly consist of any number of candidates from one (Joe Biden) to five (Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg).

The Houston debate didn’t upend the campaign overnight; polls since the debate don’t show huge movement. You can, of course, find big swings for individual candidates in individual polls if you’re willing to cherry-pick, but you shouldn’t do that.

The post-debate polls do, however, reinforce some trends that were already in the works before:

They tend to argue for the presence of a top two (Biden and Warren) as opposed to a top three (Biden, Warren and Sanders), especially if you look at polls of Iowa.

They make it awfully hard to argue that Harris belongs in the top tier. (I recently argued that Harris did belong in the top tier, so put that take in the “didn’t age well” bucket, at least for now.)

Meanwhile, a new trend since the debate is that several of the lower-tier candidates, such as Amy Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke, are showing slightly livelier numbers, although we’re still only talking the low-to-mid single digits.

Let’s touch on the new national and early-state polls, and then we’ll revisit each of these themes. There are quite a few of these: seven new national polls conducted entirely since the Houston debate, which variously contain good news for Warren, Biden and Sanders. For the gory details of which polls are included and what they say, see the footnote.1

We also have two new polls of Iowa since the debate, which look good for Warren and Biden but not particularly for Sanders; instead, those polls show Buttigieg and (in one of the two polls) Klobuchar outperforming their national numbers.2

As I said, that’s plenty of data to choose from — or to cherry-pick from — so this is precisely the sort of time when it’s useful to look at the polling average instead of individual polls. Since the new polls vary a lot in sample size and pollster quality, I’ve weighted the average using the same algorithm we use for our Trump approval ratings calculation:

Biden, Warren look strong in post-debate polls

Weighted average of national and Iowa polls since the Houston debate

National Iowa Candidate Average Trend Average Trend Biden 30.2% +0.2 20.6% -0.2 Warren 20.4 +0.7 23.5 +2.8 Sanders 16.6 -0.6 12.5 -2.2 Buttigieg 5.8 -0.1 12.5 +2.8 Harris 5.8 -2.2 5.0 -8.2 O’Rourke 3.1 +1.2 1.5 +0.2 Yang 2.8 +0.8 2.5 +1.3 Booker 2.6 +0.7 2.0 +0.0 Klobuchar 1.4 +0.3 5.5 +2.4 Castro 1.0 +0.1 0.5 -0.3

The trend reflects the average change as compared to the previous, pre-debate edition of the same poll, except in the case of the Civiqs Iowa poll, where it reflects a comparison to the average of all Iowa polls in August. Only candidates who participated in the third debate are listed in the table.

There’s not a ton of movement in the national polls. On average, Biden held steady at 30 percent. Warren and Sanders’s position isn’t much changed, but she does appear to be about 4 points ahead of him nationally and has continued to gain ground slowly but steadily, having now reached 20 percent in the polling average. The biggest gainer since the debate is actually O’Rourke, who added an average of 1.2 percentage points, although that still puts him only in the low-to-mid single digits. The biggest loser is Harris, who is down to only about 6 percent and lost another 2 points or so in the most recent round of polls, although some of that movement predates the debate itself.

In Iowa, the major headline is that Warren and Biden form a clear top two in the post-debate polls — a clearer top two there than in national polls. Iowa has always looked like a relatively strong state for Warren and a weak one for Biden, so this isn’t a huge surprise, but the trends are nonetheless favorable for Warren. The rest of the field also looks a bit different in Iowa than it does nationally; as I mentioned, the Midwestern candidates — Klobuchar and especially Buttigieg — are doing quite a bit better in the Hawkeye State. Sanders, meanwhile, is surprisingly weak in Iowa given that he nearly won the state last time around, although other Iowa polls have shown better numbers for him than the two released since the debate. The new edition of the Selzer/Des Moines Register poll is due out soon, which should help us to confirm whether the new polls are a trend or a fluke.

For me, that all adds up to something like this:

Nate’s not-to-be-taken-too-seriously presidential tiers

For the Democratic nomination, as revised on Sept. 19, 2019

Tier Sub-tier Candidates 1 a Biden b Warren 2 a Sanders ↓ b Harris ↓, Buttigieg 3 a Yang, O’Rourke, Klobuchar, Booker b Castro 4 a Steyer ↑, Gabbard ↑ b Everyone else

None of this looks dramatically different than before the debate, but to revisit those themes I touched on before …

Theme No. 1: There’s a better case for a Top 2 (Biden, Warren) than a Top 3 (Biden + Warren + Sanders). I’ve done something slightly sneaky with my tiers, which reflects the fact that Warren’s position continues to improve incrementally — rather than meteorically — relative to Sanders’s. As before, I have Sanders as the third most likely Democrat to win the nomination. (Keep in mind that these rankings aren’t driven by any sort of statistical model;3 they’re my subjective opinion, which sticks fairly closely to be polls but doesn’t omit other factors entirely.) But I’m demoting him to tier 2a from tier 1c. (I’m also demoting Harris, who has bigger problems than Sanders does — see the next item.)

You could argue that Sanders and Warren belong in the same tier since they’re almost tied in national polls. But they aren’t quite tied anymore; Warren is ahead in the average of national polls, as you can see above.

That alone might not be enough to put Warren in a higher tier than Sanders. But virtually every other polling-based metric other than the topline numbers in national polls tends to favor Warren over Sanders:

As I mentioned, she’s doing a fair better than Sanders in Iowa, especially in post-debate polls. (New Hampshire, where there hasn’t been any post-debate polling, is more of a mess.)

She has equal favorable ratings to Sanders and Biden, but lower unfavorable ratings, meaning that she’s more broadly acceptable to Democratic voters; she also tends to do better than Sanders when polls ask about voters’ second choices or which candidates they’re considering.

Although past movement in the polls doesn’t necessarily predict future movement, she obviously has the most momentum, having slowly but steadily gained in the polls for several months now.

In Iowa, and increasingly in national polls, she generates more enthusiasm than other candidates, including Sanders.

She does considerably better than Sanders among Democrats who are paying the most attention to the race, possibly a leading indicator of what will happen as more voters tune into the campaign later on.

And although the gap is closing, she’s still slightly less familiar to voters than Sanders, which implies that she has more room to grow.

The one factor working in Sanders’s favor is that his coalition appears to be a bit more diverse in terms of race and educational status; Warren is eventually going to have to expand her coalition beyond liberal, college-educated whites. On the other hand, Sanders has historically had problems with several major Democratic constituencies, including blacks over the age of 40, whites over the age of 55, and moderate voters of all races and ages. Overall, even from a “polls only” perspective, Warren is now in a meaningfully better position than Sanders.

And if you look at non-polling factors, the gap between Warren and Sanders increases. Empirically, the best way to look at the primaries apart from polls is through a “Party Decides” perspective, wherein so-called “party elites” — influential Democrats such as elected officials — are instrumental in picking the nominee, or at least are a leading indicator of voter preferences. Sanders is a problematic and even implausible nominee by this metric; he rather proudly doesn’t get along with the party establishment (and technically isn’t even a Democrat) and instead is running more of a factional campaign where he hopes to win the largest plurality of voters rather than necessarily uniting the party. Warren also doesn’t do terrifically well in this framework. (Party elites seem to prefer Biden and Harris.) But she has more endorsement points than Sanders does, and there’s lots of reporting to suggest that she has better relationships with party insiders than him. Particularly in the event of a contested convention, when superdelegates are allowed to vote on the second and subsequent ballots, this could be a big advantage for her. She’s also winning more support from progressive groups and organizations such as the Working Families Party and MoveOn.org which may or may not get along with the Democratic Party establishment, but can help to turn out voters in primaries and caucuses.

So while I don’t know that I’d go as far as prediction markets, which have Warren with a 35 to 40 percent chance of winning the nomination and Sanders at only 10 to 15 percent, there’s quite a bit to differentiate them, with most of the indicators in Warren’s favor.

As to whether Warren is more likely to win the nomination than Biden, I’m not quite ready to go there yet. (I still have Biden in tier 1a and Warren in tier 1b.) As my colleague Clare Malone likes to say on our podcast, Biden is still the “statistical frontrunner”: If you built a model consisting solely of objective indicators — e.g. national polls, Iowa polls, endorsements — he’d probably still be ahead. That isn’t necessarily the only way to look at the nomination. But I’d like to see Warren win a few more endorsements, and I’d like to see a couple more polls showing her leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, before removing Biden’s front-runner status. Warren is also near an empirical inflection point in national polls; once you get to 20 percent or so, you go from a factional candidate to a real threat to win the nomination. To the extent she can continue gaining ground — going from 20 percent to 25 percent, say — that would be a pretty huge deal for her, especially if those gains came from voters other than college-educated white Democrats.

Theme No. 2: Harris is in trouble. As I said earlier, I’ve mostly been bullish on Harris throughout the campaign. She’s a strong “Party Decides” candidate and she’s still second in endorsements behind Biden, although her pace of endorsements has slowed since a flurry of them after the Miami debate. But she’s in real danger now. Rather than uniting the party, she’s losing college educated liberals to Warren and black voters to Biden. She’s also well behind in polls of Latino voters.

There’s still plenty of time to turn it around, but the risk is that donors, voters and potential endorsers abandon her for a candidate who appears to have more momentum. (Harris’s fundraising totals for the third quarter, which closes on Sept. 30, will reportedly be weak.) Buttigieg has caught up with her to tie for fourth place nationally and is in a stronger position than her in Iowa and New Hampshire. And O’Rourke, Cory Booker and even Andrew Yang are right on her heels nationally. Media coverage is also a factor here: If media coverage that was once devoted to Harris begins to go to candidates such as O’Rourke and Booker instead, that could deepen her problems. And I’m not sure that refocusing her campaign on Iowa, her latest strategic gambit, is going to help.

Theme No. 3: There’s a little bit of life in the third tier. I don’t want to overstate this, since going from 2 percent to 3 percent means you’re still … at 3 percent. But (with the exception of Julián Castro) this is the best set of polling for candidates outside of the top 5 in a while. That’s not entirely surprising, since voters gave several of these candidates — notably Klobuacher, O’Rourke, Yang and Booker — relatively good marks for their debate performances. If anything, the problem is that a number of these candidates had strong evenings, so voters who were shopping around for new alternatives were divided several ways between them.

Perhaps the most interesting number of all in the new set of polling was Klobuchar’s 8 percent in the David Binder poll of Iowa; among other things, a Klobuchar mini-surge in Iowa could cause big problems for Biden by crowding the moderate/electability lane there. But that number hasn’t been replicated in other surveys yet.

All of this does leave one to wonder whether candidates such as Booker and Klobuchar were hurt by the large field and getting mixed up with the Marianne Williamsons and Eric Swalwells of the world. I’ll stick with what I said last week: If you’re polling in the low single digits, you’re probably toast. But let’s hold off on declaring their campaigns dead until at least the next debate.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nate Silver

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demon-of-the-ancient-world · 6 years

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Game of thrones/ AsoIaF ask game

Tagged by @a-song-of-quill-and-feather thanks buddy

Answer the following 10 questions and then make up 10 of your own

1. Of the alive characters who would you like to see live to the end and who would you like to see die by the end?

I would absolutely love to see Theon make it until the end because that boy has been through so much already and deserves a good life. Also all the Starks...tbh I’d love most of the main cast to live but there’s no way that’s going to happen. The only characters I really WANT to see dead by the end are the Night King, Euron, and Cersei; NK is pure chaos and Euron just neets to stay the fuck away from my son. I actually love Cersei as a character but I can’t see her being able to live and still leave all my faves alone so...

2. Which book/season is you favorite? Why?

My favourite book is AGOT, the first one, mostly because I just have really positive memories of reading it the first time, and I love the atmosphere GRRM creates at the very beginning, in the introductions to all the places that later become familiar to the reader. The beginning of an epic story like this is always fun to read. Show wise, I really like season 1 for the same reasons, but my favourites have to be a tie between seasons 4 and 6. I felt like season 4 was a real turning point for a lot of the characters, many of the mains began their storylines at the end of that season which would then get them directly to where they are now, or at least got them into a very different situation than the ones they had been in, and I found those transitions interesting. Tone-wise, it was also the beginning of a lot of changes for the same reason; at lot of characters were being put into new and different situations and that created a change in atmosphere overall. And season 6 was just iconic. Also that was the season that was actually airing at the time that I started watching the show, so it was the first time where I was really aware of what was happening and who everyone was during the current season, so I am nostalgic for it a little.

3. Who, outside of the usual candidates, would you think do well on the Iron Throne? Why?

I actually hope nobody ends up on the throne, but outside of the regulars (I’m assuming you mean Dany, Jon, and Cersei) I’d say Sansa? I think she has shown a lot of capabilities as a leader and knew Cersei long enough that she has a good idea of what NOT to do lol. Again, I hope/ think it’s going to end up with no one person ruling, but if someone had to I would be okay with it being her.

4. If you could undo one character death who would it be and why?

Oooh that’s tough because I wouldn’t want to change the story too much? Like I’d love Ned to live, but then basically nothing in seasons 2-7 ends up happening. So I’d say Shireen because she was just a sweetheart who didn’t deserve THAT. Or maybe Barristan, I liked his dynamic with Daenerys and I would have liked to see how it evolved over seasons 6-8. (Also just realizing now I would love Barristan and Davos to meet each other)

5. What prophecy from the books/show is your favorite?

How many prophecies are there? The only one I’m really aware of is the Azor Ahai thing and I’m still not even really clear on the specifications of it. I remember in the books the Ghost of High Heart had some prophetic dream that foreshadowed a bunch of stuff so I guess that one?

6. What house do you think you would be a part of? (Not necessarily your favorite but the one you fit amongst best) Why?

House Tully. They’re just sort of chill and trying to stay out of everything. I feel like they’re kind of like the Starks but less hardcore and living in a warmer climate, so I’m in. Only problem is I can’t swim...

7. What battle has been your favorite so far? What about least favorite?

I LOVE the battle of the bastards. The cinematography is absolutely stunning; as soon as they started doing that long take I knew I was in for a wild ride. Also the 3 main soundtracks ( “Let’s play a game”, “Bastard,” “Trust each other,”) are probably my favourite battle themes from the whole show.

8. What story from before the present would you like to read/see most?

Not really a story in itself but I’d just like to see sort of a day in the life of the generation before everyone in the current story, from all their different houses. Like, Ned and his siblings as kids, Cersei and her brothers (or even Tywin and his siblings) all the parents at the beginning of the story and how they grew up, perhaps it would give some insight into their relationships with the kids that we see during the story.

9. Would you rather your favorite character live but be in your least favorite ship for them, or die but after having been in your favorite ship for them?

Oh no oh no why do you make me answer this?? Okay my favourite character is Theon and I’d absolutely love if he ended up with Sansa...problem is my notp with him is Ramsay but he’s dead so the first part doesn’t really apply? I guess I’d rather him die but have some romance with Sansa first, even though that would destroy me.

10. If you woke up as a character from the show/book who would you want to wake as most? What would you do different?

Pre- series Ned, JUST TELL YOUR WIFE ABOUT JON, JESUS. Also I’d just get him to make some smarter decisions; Ned was a smart guy but a lot of the time he got so caught up it doing “the right thing” that it ended up benefiting the people he was trying to go against. He’s like one of those guys that votes for an objectively better but really unpopular third party candidate because he’s so loyal but only ends up getting the vote split.

Ok MY questions...

1:If you could take any character and bring them into our world for a couple days to show them what life was like, who would it be?

2: Favourite deviation from the books to the show?

3:What moment in the books or show made you go “this is it, I’m hooked”?

4: Was there ever a moment when you were genuinely scared your favourite character was going to be killed off? (if they’re not dead already)

5: Are there any interesting parallels that you’ve noticed between earlier and later seasons/ books?

6: What’s a reunion or first time meeting you’re looking forward to in TWOW/ sesaosn 8- that hardly anyone else is talking about?

7: If all the surviving characters were to go back as they are now and redo their own storylines, which do you think would do the best job of it?

8: What non- story element of the tv show is your favourite? (eg. acting, costume design, music)

9: Without actually saying who it is (you can say in the tags if you like), describe your favourite character really, really badly OR describe your least favourite character in a very flattering way

10: Are there any plotlines that you think could have been combined or separated from each other? Eg. Arya and Tyrion meet each other while both in Essos, Oberyn has his own storyline instead of coming to King’s Landing

I’m tagging @mhysaofdragons, @motherofkittens94, @proskenion04 and @selkiewife if you guys are interested and haven’t already done it

#game of thrones #ASoIaF

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swshadowcouncil · 6 years

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As we approach the middle of the post-TLJ, pre-Episode IX doldrums, it’s time for a little bit of fun, pointless speculation to make the days go by a bit faster. And what better way to do that than to spend several days meticulously compiling a list of all the actresses who could potentially play Rey’s mother in Episode IX? (There are probably better ways, I just chose this one). Below the jump, I explore which of these extremely similar looking British, brunette white ladies (insert beleaguered sigh here) is the best candidate to play the part, ranked in order from to least to most ridiculous. How serious am I about these choices? Not very. Or am I? Who can say. Read on to find out….

Lily James

Pros: Well, for one thing, she’s Matt Smith’s girlfriend, so she’s already going to be on set from time to time. She’s also British, which earns her some points; and she recently dyed her hair dark brown–coincidence???? It’s easy to imagine that, with her proximity to the production, and her resemblance to Daisy (Look at that smile!) JJ would ask her to step in for a cameo as SkyMom, especially given that she’s not currently filming anything else, per her Wikipedia entry.

Cons: Not many…? Honestly, I think she’s the best pick. If I’m right you all owe me a drink.

Daisy Ridley Resemblance Rating: 9/10

The smile! The eyes! Look at her!!

Mark Hamill Chemistry Rating: 9/10

This is the best/worst kind of couple. This is the couple that pops up on your Facebook feed and makes you wish you could hate them, but no, they’re just genuinely radiantly happy and adorable and beautiful together. They’re also really fucking nice. Ugh. What a great, stupid couple.

Keri Russell

Pros: Is already in the movie, for one thing. Was cast in a role with the same name as Luke’s wife from the EU novels. Is more or less the same age that Luke was at the time of Rey’s disappearance, give or take a few years.

Cons: Okay, I lied, they’re not ALL British. Which doesn’t really matter, but it would certainly make Rey’s accent seem a little less random. The character of Mara in IX is also supposed to be as old as 50, which is significantly older than you would expect Rey’s mom to be at the time she disappeared. It’s possible she’s still alive, too, but that opens up a whole other can of narrative worms–to paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to think one living parent is dead your entire life can be regarded as a misfortune, to think both are dead looks like obliviousness.

Daisy Ridley Resemblance Rating: 7/10

Okay, yeah, sure, I see it.

Mark Hamill Chemistry Rating: 8/10

A little annoyingly wholesome, but not bad. Mazel tov, you two crazy hypothetical kids.

Hayley Atwell

Pros: Definitely has that badass edge that we’re hoping for from Rey’s mother. The resemblance is also notable. Plus, she has experience playing cool action-y love interests, so she’d be a natural choice to play the wife and mother, respectively, of two totally badass protagonists.

Cons: Her badassery actually makes her potentially–dare I say it–too cool to play Luke’s wife? We all love Luke Skywalker, but fundamentally he is a human Golden Retriever and I’m not sure his personality could stand up to the amount of sheer chutzpah that Atwell brings to the screen. That being said, if they went with a Mara Jade-like character, you could do worse.

Daisy Ridley Resemblance Rating: 8/10

She’s got the same vibe as Daisy, which does 90% of the work for her. There are some other similarities, though, and overall it’s believable that the two could be related.

Mark Hamill Chemistry Rating: 6/10

A gorgeous couple with a constant threat of one party being able to probably physically break the other party in half if she wanted to.

Emilia Clarke

Pros: A character with some potential Mara Jade parallels, which may be a hint at her future role. Already exists in canon, which gives her a leg up over some other options.

Cons: First and foremost, she’s about 10 years older than Luke, which would make her around 40 when Rey was born. That’s not TOTALLY out of the realm of possibility for a woman to give birth for the first time, but it is out of the ordinary. It’s also a bit of an awkward setup to have Han’s brother-in-law and best friend start dating his formerly evil ex-girlfriend. She also really doesn’t have much in common with Luke, or Rey for that matter.

Daisy Ridley Resemblance Rating: 3/10

Some superficial similarities, but not nearly as close as some of the others here.

Mark Hamill Chemistry Rating: 4/10

Ehhhhh. They’re fine.

Daisy Ridley with some Mo-Cap or Something

Pros: I mean, it would certainly be the simplest option. Just add a few tweaks to make her look less like Mark, and presto, you have the perfect genetic counterpart to create baby Rey!

Cons: It would be BONKERS creepy, both in an uncanny valley way, and an “I don’t want to see the same actress play Mark Hamill’s daughter and love interest” kind of way. Please don’t do this, Lucasfilm.

Daisy Ridley Resemblance Rating: 10/10

I mean.

Mark Hamill Chemistry Rating: 0/10

Let’s…not dwell on this one.

Felicity Jones OKAY HEAR ME OUT

Pros: Okay OKAY just HEAR ME OUT here. Jesus. For one thing, she was the world’s lead theory for Rey’s mother immediately post-TFA, just like Luke was the lead theory for Rey’s father. And since Lucasfilm seems to be dying on the hill of “the best plot twists are when you convince everyone the most obvious answer is wrong until the very last minute, when you reveal it was the right answer all along,” who’s to say they’re not moving in this direction with Rey’s mother too? Jyn is in the Rebel Alliance, she has parallels to Mara Jade, and she’s (another beleaguered sigh) yet another white British brunette, like Daisy Ridley. Aside from all that, how cool would it be for Rey’s mother to be a badass character with her own movie already? So cool, that’s how cool.

Cons: So THEORETICALLY, hypothetically, in a certain sense, one could say that Jyn Erso may or may not have “been on a planet during a giant fucking explosion” and/or “canonically died.” But has that ever stopped Star Wars before? You bet your ass it hasn’t. There have been a number of theories about how Jyn could have survived the destruction on Scarif, most of them revolving around the kyber necklace her mother gave her, which seems to grant her almost superhuman abilities to survive dangerous situations. Or maybe someone went wandering into the World Between Worlds and rescued crispy burnt-up Jyn Erso from the jaws of death or something after she was exploded on Scarif. Who are we to say that Jyn didn’t then go on to rejoin the Rebel Alliance, where she met a young war hero named Luke Skywalker and gave birth to a baby girl with him some years later? Come on. Don’t be a buzzkill here. Play with me in this space.

Daisy Ridley Resemblance Rating: 5/10

I’m aware that the “being almost certainly vaporized” thing is definitely a bigger stumbling block than this, but also Felicity Jones doesn’t look anything like Daisy Ridley. But Daisy Ridley does look like Lyra, Jyn’s mother, just like she resembles Padme, her grandmother on the other side of the family, so I added a few points for that. Genes are weird, I don’t know.

Mark Hamill Chemistry Rating: 7/10

Opposites attract, I suppose? She’s tough and sarcastic, he’s sunny and optimistic, they’re both badass space heroes–it could work. You know what? Screw it. Jyn Erso for SkyMom 2k19: Because Why The Hell Not.

I Now Pronounce You Mrs. Skywalker: A (Semi-Serious) List Of Candidates to Play Rey’s Mother in Episode IX As we approach the middle of the post-TLJ, pre-Episode IX doldrums, it's time for a little bit of fun, pointless speculation to make the days go by a bit faster.

#humor #ReySky #SkyMom #Speculation #Star Wars

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kl-writes · 7 years

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Stable DC Timeline - Justice League 2017

Adjusted, our 2017 should be about midway through 1977. If we wanted to see what the Justice League would look like today in a stable timeline, we would be advancing the clock 40 years in comic time. However, as previously stated, I consider 1974 (The approximate time of Flashpoint and the end of New Earth) to be the ‘modern’ time of comics, and thus any time beyond this will be speculation.

So let’s speculate!

First off, there’s a few characters we can use that are from the near-future of the DCU. Terry McGinnis is an obvious one- in the animated series, he became Batman in 2040, at the age of 17. Adjusted, that’s 1989, putting his birthday in 1972. However, Damian Wayne, the most likely Batman successor, would still be 37 at the time. However, I can plausibly see Damian preferring to take on an older partner, rather than a child. We could give Terry the name “The Tomorrow Knight” in 1989. By the time 2017 rolls around, Terry will be 45 and Damian will be 65, so it’s plausible that Terry might be the Batman at this time rather than Damian.

There are only two others in the Batman family that are still under 60: Duke Thomas (58) and Harper Row (57). So most of the Batfamily would likely be children of the current Batfamily.

For Dick Grayson, although recently on Prime Earth he’s been seeing a new character, traditionally he’s been paired with either Koriand’r or Barbara Gordon. I’ve seen the name Mar’i Grayson a few times in fanon, so we can say that perhaps in 1975, they had their child. This puts Mar’i at age 42 in 2017. But because of her powers, she is an unlikely candidate for Batman.

I didn’t see any significant romantic interests for Damian or Jason pre-Flashpoint.

Stephanie Brown is a love interest for Tim Drake. In 1974, Tim and Stephanie are 24 and 23, so if they were to marry and have a kid after 5 years (In 1979), this Drake child would be 38 in 2017.

Overall, Terry looks like the best candidate for the 2017 Batman, due to seniority over any of the robins’ children. However, Mar’i and the Drake child could still potentially be members of the Justice League.

Superman is an interesting one, because the New Earth version still exists in Prime Earth. Jon, his son, is 9 in 1977 (Unadj. 2017), putting his birthday in 1968. If we put the death of superman as permanent, the time of his death was 1965, making this birth impossible. So we have to move his birthday back to 1965, and assume he’s only 9 on Prime Earth due to weird time travel stuff. In any case, this would put Jon’s age at 52 in 2017, and potentially Superman.

Superboy, on the other hand, emerged as a teenaged clone mid-1965 as well, which makes him approximately 68 in 2017. Due to Kryptonian DNA, both his and Jon’s aging are slowed, even though they are only half-Kryptonian, so both Jon and Connor could potentially be active.

As an amazon, Wonder Woman is immortal. However, Donna Troy, also immortal, has taken on the mantle of Wonder Woman in the past. It is likely that both are still active in 2017. Cassandra Sandsmark, a demigod, might also still be active- I don’t know if we ever saw how aging affects half-gods in the DCU. Additionally, she and Connor may have had a child at some point, and this child might be active.

There is more than likely a Green Lantern in 2017, but it would be difficult to determine who- since the ring is passed on non-linearly, it could be anyone. But a Green Lantern X likely exists.

Jai and Iris II would be 46 in 2017, so they are likely still active. Bart Allen would have an effective age of 63, and I believe he would be either retired or close to retiring. However, it’s entirely possible that they all decided to call themselves the Flash- at one point, there were 3 different people calling themselves that, and they were all okay with it.

Martians don’t age as quickly as humans, so J’onn J’onzz may still be active.

I’m fairly certain Atlanteans age normally, so Arthur Curry (Who would be approx. 98 in 2017) might still be Atlantis’s king, but likely not its representative on the Justice League. Koryak is the only one of his children who might be alive (This was never resolved pre-flashpoint). He was born sometime around 1950, so he would be 67 in 2017. Again, it’s unlikely Koryak would still be active, but perhaps some of his children might. Garth would be about 78, assuming an age of 10 in his first appearance. Kaldur’ahm is a pretty good candidate- given his first appearance in 1974 as a teenager, he could be as young as 56 years old, and thus just barely young enough to be a plausible member of the Justice League. Again, he might have kids who are active. Tula would be 75 if we assume an age of 10 in her first appearance. Lorena Marquez would be about 59, so she is just barely good to be active.

Because of the nature of his powers, Billy Batson at 66 is likely still active, as is the rest of the Marvel family.

From the Green Arrow family, Connor Hawke and Lian Harper are the most likely candidates. Assuming Connor is 10 in his first appearance, he would be 61 in 2017. Lian Harper, born in 1962, would be 55.

So from all this (And we could certainly look more in-depth!), we have the following roster of potential Justice League members:

Batman (Damian Wayne, 65) – If anyone’s going to push their limits in old age, Damian would

Batman/Tomorrow Knight (Terry McGinnis, 45)

The Signal (Duke Thomas, 58)

Bluebird (Harper Row, 57)

Starfire (Mar’i Grayson, 42)

??? (Drake child, 38)

Superman (Jon Kent, 52)

Superman/Metropolis Man (Conner Kent, effectively 68)

Wonder Woman (Diana Prince)

Wonder Woman/Troia (Donna Troy)

Wonder Woman/??? (Cassandra Sandsmark)

Green Lantern (There could be several)

Flash (Bart Allen, 63)

Flash/??? (Jai West, 46)

Flash/??? (Iris West II, 46)

Martian Manhunter (J’onn J’onzz)

Aquaman (Kaldur’ahm, 56)

Aquawoman (Lorena Marquez, 59)

Captain Marvel (Billy Batson, 66)

Green Arrow (Connor Hawke, 61)

Red Arrow/Cheshire (Lian Harper, 55)

I’ve bolded everyone with normal aging over 50, because they will likely have kids who are adults by 2017, so we may have to look at their kids as potential members of the justice league. The only one that really pops out at me would actually be a child between Conner Kent and Cassandra Sandsmark (Even though both of these people do not have normal aging).

#dc comics #fanfiction #justice league #dcu #au #stable dcu

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jakehglover · 7 years

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Bringing Balance to Your Work Week

By Dr. Mercola

If you are an American working 50 to 60 hours a week, a study1 out of Australia may give you pause. Researchers at the Australian National University (ANU) suggest 39 hours to be the ideal work week to ensure you maintain life balance and good health. The study asserts working those who have domestic chores and caregiving responsibilities should trim their work schedules back to just 34 hours a week. The upper limit for those spending less time on domestic work was suggested as 47 hours.

According to USA Today,2 Americans spend about 47 hours a week, on average, working. Brits clock in at 37.5 hours and French employees a little less, at 35 hours a week. While it’s well known Americans work longer hours than many of our counterparts around the world, how often do you stop to consider the effects those extra hours are likely having on your health and well-being?

Long Work Hours Drain Your Mental and Physical Health

The research3 mentioned above was based on data drawn from about 8,000 adults, ages 24 to 65, as part of the Household, Income and Labor Dynamics in Australia survey. Lead researcher Huong Dinh, research fellow at ANU’s research school of population health, asserts, "Long work hours erode a person's mental and physical health, because it leaves [them] less time to eat well and look after themselves properly.” According to Dinh, reducing the number of work hours seems particularly important for women. She says:

“They spend much more time on care and domestic work. Given the extra demands placed on women, it's impossible for women to work long hours often expected by employers unless they compromise their health. Despite the fact that women, on average, are as skilled as men, women … have lower paid jobs and less autonomy than men, and they spend much more time on care[giving] and domestic work.”

Some of the study highlights published by Dinh and her team are as follows:

While longer work hours are not necessarily bad and do not have a uniformly negative impact on your mental health, there is a distinct tipping point when the hours worked do begin to affect your mental health

Due to constraints related to caregiving and domestic chores, if you are a woman, you are perceived to have a lower threshold when it comes to achieving work/health balance

Australia’s current system of work-hour regulations and expectations appears to be negatively affecting women's health in that country

To encourage men and women to equally share caregiving responsibilities, work hours would need to be reduced

Working More Than 55 Hours a Week May Negatively Affect Your Heart

Research4 conducted by the European Society of Cardiology suggests it might actually be possible to work your heart out. Based on a study of 85,500 men and women over a 10-year period, researchers observed a negative tendency with respect to the relationship between work hours and heart health.

Specifically, individuals who worked more than 55 hours a week were 40 percent more likely than those working a normal workweek (35 to 40 hours) to develop an irregular heartbeat, or atrial fibrillation (AFib). The correlation between longer work hours and increased risk of AFib remained even after scientists adjusted for risk factors such as age, alcohol use, gender, obesity and smoking. Lead researcher Mika Kivimaki, a professor in the department of epidemiology and public health at University College London, said:5

“Nine out of 10 of the atrial fibrillation cases occurred in people who were free of pre-existing or concurrent cardiovascular disease. This suggests the increased risk is likely to reflect the effect of long working hours, rather than the effect of any pre-existing or concurrent cardiovascular disease.”

The current study seems to support previous research linking long work hours to an increased risk of stroke. Kivimaki states:6 “These findings … could be one of the mechanisms that explain the previously observed increased risk of stroke among those working long hours. Atrial fibrillation is known to contribute to the development of stroke, but also other adverse health outcomes, such as heart failure and stroke-related dementia."

Another very important factor to consider with atrial fibrillation, though, is exposure to EMF, just as cell phones, Wi-Fi, portable phones and sleeping in a bedroom that has the electrical power turned on to it. The heart has a high density of voltage gated calcium channels and is highly susceptible to EMF and one of the primary symptoms are cardiac arrhythmias like atrial fibrillation.

Other Reasons You Might Want to Cut Back on Your Work Hours

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics7 reveal nearly 15 million Americans work full time on the evening shift, night shift, rotating shifts or other employer-arranged work schedules considered “irregular.” According to 2010 U.S. health interview data, nearly 19 percent of working adults are on the job 48 hours or more per week.

More than 7 percent logged 60 hours or more each week. The risk of heart disease and stroke are not the only reasons you might want to cut back on your work hours. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest when your work overtime, you put yourself at risk for:8

Alcohol use

Higher rates of illness, injury and death

Smoking

Weight gain

Edward Hitchcock, Ph.D., supervisory research psychologist and deputy chief of the organizational science and human factors branch, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, stated:9 “There is currently a lot of scientific evidence showing that shift work and long hours of work are associated with significant health and safety risks. Scientists believe these risks occur due to disruptions in sleep and circadian rhythms associated with these demanding schedules and strains on social life.”

Hitchcock also noted the disruptive effects lack of sleep and inconsistent sleeping hours can have on your body. He said:10 “The human body cannot naturally adjust to sleeping during the day or at irregular hours … consequently, many shift workers do not get the seven to eight hours of good quality, restorative sleep that most of us need.” A nearly two-year-long experiment in Sweden involving nurses working six-hour days instead of traditional eight-hour days at an elder-care facility revealed several benefits of shortened work days, including:11

Being less tired and retaining more energy for home-based and free-time activities

Demonstrating better attitudes and work behavior while on the job

Getting an average of seven hours of sleep a night versus the less-than-six hours of sleep nurses working a traditional schedule achieved

Providing higher quality care to their patients

Taking fewer sick days than nurses working a longer shift

Five Tips to Help You Create a More Balanced Life

If you are in a job situation that is upsetting your work-life balance and detracting from the overall quality of your life, it may be time for a change. I believe you will find it worth your time to talk to your employer about possible options to help you reduce stress, be more productive and achieve greater job satisfaction. It’s important to remember that working longer hours does not necessarily mean you will be get more work done.

In fact, I imagine if you are routinely unhappy or stressed while on the job, you will actually be less productive and the quality of your work may suffer. Everyone wins when you feel good about the work you do, there is balance in your schedule and your stress level feels manageable.

Regardless of whether you are able to make changes related to your job, there are several areas you can address in and outside of work that will go a long way in helping you create a more balanced life. I recommend you choose at least one of these areas to begin working on today. (Over time, I believe you will be helped by addressing all five areas.) Some tips to help you create a more balanced life are as follows:

1. Create a support network: Isolation and loneliness can be a major source of stress, so it is important that you make a point to connect personally with people around you. Particularly if your work environment is filled with difficult, or even toxic, people, you’ll need to create a support network outside of your job.

Even a quick chat while you are sitting in a waiting room or standing in line at the grocery store can help you feel connected to the world around you. You might also consider attending community events, meeting friends for coffee, taking a class or volunteering.

While you may think you are connected to others through email, social media and texting, that type of connection is not the same as personal, face-to-face contact. If you are unsure of the extent to which you use technology as your interface to other human beings, keep track of how much “face time” you have during the next week. The results may surprise you.

2. Learn to say “no:” Sometimes the stress and strain on your life comes from your inability or unwillingness to set boundaries and limits. When asked to take on yet another responsibility at work, for your children or on a volunteer project, you may feel guilty for saying “no.” If you were raised to say “yes” to almost everything that comes along, particularly because this is the only way you think people will like or accept you, it’s time to rethink the powerful word “no.”

Especially if you feel you are continually busy — racing from one activity or commitment to the next, all day long — from the time you get up until you fall into bed at night, you are a prime candidate for change. Start this week to re-establish some balance in your life by saying “no” to any new request or activity you know will only serve to cause additional stress and imbalance.

3. Look inward: Because you cannot separate your physical health from your emotional well-being, it is important you take time on a regular basis to look inward. Every feeling you have affects some part of your body, so it is important to notice and address the feelings that come up in the context of your everyday circumstances and relationships.

When left unchecked, lingering negative feelings and the emotional stress that often accompanies them can wreak havoc on your health. This is true even if you are doing everything else — diet, exercise and sleep, for instance — "right." Some tools you can use to look inward and explore your emotions include:

Coloring, drawing or painting

Relaxation exercises, such as deep breathing and positive visualization

Yoga

Journaling

Meditation

Prayer

My personal favorite tool to manage emotional stress is the Emotional Freedom Techniques (EFT), which involves light tapping over the major energy meridians of your body. It is a handy tool you can use as often as you need to unload emotional baggage. EFT is quick and painless, and so easy even children can learn it.

4. Nurture yourself: If you live a hectic, fast-paced life, the idea of nurturing and caring for yourself may be a foreign concept. It is a rare person who knows how to practice self-care on an ongoing basis. Sure, you may take an annual vacation or visit a spa occasionally, but do you have a daily practice of nurturing that contributes to feelings of balance, tranquility and wholeness?

If not, it’s never too late to start thinking about ways you can practice healthy self-care. I challenge you to create a list of at least 25 things you can do to nurture yourself.

For example, you might choose to prepare one of your favorite meals, get a massage, go for a bike ride, listen to music, spend time with a friend or take an exercise class. Some of the ways I nurture myself include eating healthy food, doing peak fitness, reading a book, walking on the beach and enjoying an occasional chocolate fat bomb truffle.

I caution you from falling into the all-too-common trap of adopting habits that start out under the guise of self-care but inevitably decline into unhealthy, self-destructive practices. Some of them may include drinking alcohol, eating out frequently, indulging in junk food or sugary treats, spending hours on social media and watching TV. Reliance on these and other unhealthy coping mechanisms will only increase the stress and imbalance in your life.

5. Prioritize activities: Being frequently late or constantly feeling hurried are significant stressors, making it important for you to carefully prioritize your activities. By focusing on the aspects of your day that are truly “must do” activities, you put your energy and time where they will garner the most positive effects.

Prioritizing also helps you identify possible responsibilities and tasks that can be delegated. Furthermore, prioritizing gives you permission to temporarily set aside any task standing between you and some much-needed self-care, because you don’t really need to have a certain task done until next week.

Finally, by making lists of your important activities, you can more easily schedule them into your day and time them conveniently and efficiently. For example, one of the easiest methods to reduce your stress level related to running errands is to group them together by geography. In doing so, you can more effectively run a series of errands on a single day with a prioritized focus.

Final Thoughts About Balancing Your Work Week

Life is short. Time flies. Upon retirement, very few people, if any, say they wished they would have worked longer hours during the many years they spent on the job. In fact, it’s often the people you work alongside and the relationships you forged that make the most impact on you. That said, no matter how close or far you are to retirement, your health and well-being simply will not self-manage.

You need to take active steps every day to balance the needs and expectations of your job with your life outside work and the people in it. Even if you cannot imagine working as few as 39 hours a week, as suggested by the ANU researchers, any reduction at all will be an improvement if you currently work more than 40 hours.

Particularly if you are working upward of 50 hours a week, it will be nearly impossible to optimize your health until you find a way to cut back your work hours and rebalance your life. Start today. You won’t regret it.

from HealthyLife via Jake Glover on Inoreader https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2018/03/01/balancing-work-week.aspx

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oldguardaudio · 7 years

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PowerLine -> Lebron James, Kevin Love and the Google Memo

Heil Google at HoaxAndChange.com

Powerline image at HoaxAndChange

powerline at HoaxAndChange.com

Daily Digest

Lebron James, Kevin Love and the Google Memo

Coming: Lilla-Livered Liberalism?

Has Trump lost his focus on radical Islam?

A Colin Kaepernick update

Was it a hack or a leak?

Lebron James, Kevin Love and the Google Memo

Posted: 11 Aug 2017 02:26 PM PDT

(John Hinderaker)

At The Unz Review, Steve Sailer asks an excellent question about the controversy over James Damore’s memo on Google’s “progressive echo chamber”: “Why Are Damore’s Observations About Statistical Distributions Assumed to be Inevitably Aspersions on Women _already_ Hired by Google?”

Imagine if in an Alternative Universe in which the media’s diversity dogmas were based on their ostensible logic rather than on sheer “Who? Whom?” childishness, somebody asked Cleveland Cavalier all-time great LeBron James:

Q. “Why is there so little diversity and racial equality in the NBA?”

LeBron: “Well, I think we could be doing a little better outreach to under-represented ethnicities to show them what a great sport basketball is, but, yeah, basically, at the highest levels, blacks tend to be a little better than whites at basketball.”

Q. “Didn’t your stereotyping just create a Hostile Work Environment for your white teammates like Kevin Love? How can Kevin Love continue to play on the same team with a hate-filled bigot like yourself who doesn’t believe he deserves to be in the NBA?”

LeBron: “Wait a minute, I didn’t say that Kevin Love doesn’t deserve to be in the NBA. I specifically insisted that the Cavs sign Kevin as part of my plan to return to my home region and win Cleveland an NBA title, which we did. Granted, Kevin looked a little dorkier while defensively shutting down NBA MVP Steph Curry in the last minute of the seventh game of the 2016 Finals than, say, I might have, but damn that white boy got the job done when it mattered!”

Q. “But if whites are genetically inferior to blacks at basketball, then aren’t you saying that all the whites in the NBA don’t belong there?”

LeBron: “No, stop being stupid. The whites in the NBA belong in the NBA or they wouldn’t be in the NBA. We don’t have special programs to hire whites who aren’t really good enough to play in the NBA. What I’m saying is that there aren’t a huge number of whites who aren’t in the NBA who belong in the NBA but are being kept out of the NBA by anti-white racism.”

If I ran Google, I would say that any female employees who boycotted work for a day because they felt threatened by Damore’s memo are deficient in logic and should stay away permanently.

Coming: Lilla-Livered Liberalism?

Posted: 11 Aug 2017 11:18 AM PDT

(Steven Hayward)

When I see things like the meltdown at Google or any of the various campus disgraces that can be mentioned, I like to ask: “When are liberals going to defend liberalism?” One liberal who is standing up for liberalism is Mark Lilla of Columbia University. As noted here back in November, Lilla wrote an op-ed for the New York Times criticizing the Democratic Party’s reliance on identity politics. For this, one of his feminist colleagues at Columbia called him a “white supremacist.”

Next week Lilla’s short new book that expands his original critique will be published, The Once and Future Liberal. Unfortunately, I don’t have an advance copy and will wait for it to come in the mail in a few days like everyone else. But Rod Dreher at The American Conservative has read an advance copy, and he passes along this wonderful passage from the book:

Electoral politics is a little like fishing. When you fish you get up early in the morning and go to where the fish are — not to where you might wish them to be. You then drop bait into the water (bait being defined as something they want to eat, not as “healthy choices”). Once the fish realize they are hooked they may resist. Let them; loosen your line. Eventually they will calm down and you can slowly reel them in, careful not to provoke them unnecessarily. The identity liberals’ approach to fishing is to remain on shore, yelling at the fish about the historical wrongs visited on them by the sea, and the need for aquatic life to renounce its privilege. All in the hope that the fish will collectively confess their sins and swim to shore to be netted. If that is your approach to fishing, you had better become a vegan.

It’s going to be fun to watch the apoplexy of the left over Lilla’s book. Stay tuned: I’ll have more.

Just hope no one at Google hears about this book.

Damon Linker (another liberal defector from the party line) has more here.

Has Trump lost his focus on radical Islam?

Posted: 11 Aug 2017 09:01 AM PDT

(Paul Mirengoff)

The estimable Ayaan Hirsi Ali thinks so. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, she reminds us:

Candidate Donald Trump vowed to take a fresh approach to Islamic extremism. He ditched the politically correct language of the Obama administration by declaring that we were mired in an ideological conflict with radical Islam, which he likened to the totalitarian ideologies America had defeated in the 20th century.

Mr. Trump also promised, as part of his immigration policy, to put in place an “extreme vetting” system that screens for Islamic radicalism. He vowed to

But President Trump hasn’t delivered:

Mr. Trump has had more than six months to make good on these pledges. He hasn’t gotten very far. The administration’s first move—a hastily drafted executive order limiting immigration from seven Muslim-majority countries—backfired when it was repeatedly blocked in court.

Worse, subsequent moves have tended to run counter to Mr. Trump’s campaign pledges. Aside from a new questionnaire for visa applicants, there has been no clarity regarding the promised “extreme vetting” of Muslim immigrants and visitors. The promise to work with and empower authentic Muslim reformers has gone nowhere. The status of the promised commission on radical Islam remains unclear.

Perhaps most discouragingly, the administration’s Middle Eastern strategy seems to involve cozying up to Saudi Arabia—for decades the principal source of funding for Islamic extremism around the world.

As to the last point, I think we should remember that the “cozying up to Saudi Arabia” is probably motivated by the need to form an alliance to counter Iran. Overall, however, I think Ayaan’s criticism of the president stands.

How to explain Trump’s failure to deliver? Some blame his advisers, such as H.R. McMaster, and not without justification, I believe.

However, in my opinion, Ayaan is right to place the primary blame on Trump. As she puts it, “he simply seems to have lost interest.”

The same statement probably explains a lot about this presidency. To be fair to Trump, though, the fact that his opponents have formed a “resistance” and placed him under siege for no very good reason makes it difficult for him — as it would for even a less narcissistic president — to remain focused on things like “Islamic extremism.” It’s understandable that when he’s not worried about Robert Mueller and his dream team of partisan Democrats, his focus is on matters like North Korean and Iranian nukes.

There’s also the perceived need to “put wins on the board.” Defeating ISIS in its strongholds is a win, even though the process of driving it out of Mosul and Raqqa was well underway before Trump took office. “Working with genuine Muslim reformers” and establishing “a commission on radical Islam” won’t register a win on the public scorecard.

Realizing that Trump is unlikely to follow through on these promises, Ayaan urges Congress to act. She proposes that Congress convene hearings on the ideological threat of radical Islam (and suggests, naively I think, that this can be an area of bipartisan agreement). “If the executive branch isn’t willing — if the president has forgotten his campaign commitments — lawmakers can and should step up to the plate,” she concludes.

A Colin Kaepernick update

Posted: 11 Aug 2017 07:53 AM PDT

(Paul Mirengoff)

Actually, this is a Ryan Mallet update. However, it’s relevant to Kaepernick because Mallet is the backup quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens, a team that has contemplated signing Kaepernick.

The Ravens starting quarterback, Joe Flacco, is injured. Thus, Mallet started last night’s pre-season game against the Washington Redskins.

Mallet was awful. He completed 9 of 18 passes for only 58 yards. His rating was 57.2.

Mallet’s actual performance was worse than these numbers indicate. He missed open receivers all over the field. He threw what would have been a pick-six (an interception returned for a touchdown) had the Redskins safety not dropped the ball.

Baltimore’s coach John Harbaugh defended Mallet, saying that he played “winning football.” But it’s not that difficult for a quarterback to play winning football when (1) the defense holds the opposition to three points, (2) the 13 points your team puts on the board while you’re in the game are mainly the result of the opponent’s penalties and a turnover, and (3) the opponent drops a pick-six.

Mallet’s career numbers aren’t much better than his numbers last night. His career rating is 64.9, with a completion percentage of 55.0, and seven touchdown passes vs. ten interceptions.

Kaepernick’s career rating is 88.9, with a completion percentage of 59.8, and 72 touchdowns vs. 30 interceptions. Last year’s numbers, compiled with a terrible team, were in line with his career stats. Plus, Kaepernick is an accomplished runner. Last year he gained 468 yards on the ground in 12 games, averaging 6.8 yards per carry. Mallet has run for -2 yards on 24 carries in his career.

The Ravens are probably concerned that fan reaction to signing Kaepernick will hurt the business. But Kaepernick has said he will stand for the National Anthem this year. Once that happens, if he’s given the chance to play for the team, fan anger is likely to dissipate.

This is a big season for the Ravens and coach Harbaugh. Until recently, this franchise was pretty much a fixture in the playoffs, but playoff appearances have started to dry up. Meanwhile, a rash of injuries has already hit this year’s squad. Going into the season with Ryan Mallet as the backup for a starting quarterback who, himself, is fighting injuries seems awfully risky.

I’m not a Ravens fan, but I am a fan of free expression. I hope the Ravens, or some other NFL team, signs Colin Kaepernick.

Was it a hack or a leak?

Posted: 11 Aug 2017 06:09 AM PDT

(Scott Johnson)

Yesterday the Nation posted Patrick Lawrence’s article on the purported hack of the DNC email by the Russians in the run-up to last year’s election. Lawrence reports the analysis by former intelligence officials who assert it was something else entirely. Lawrence’s article was posted under the heading “A New Report Raises Big Questions About Last Year’s DNC Hack.”

The “report” comes in form of open letters to the president by a group of former American intelligence officers. The group — Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) — was founded in 2003 and now has 30 members, including a few associates with backgrounds in national-security fields other than intelligence.

The group has written three open letters on the DNC incident, all of which were first published by Robert Parry at Consortium News. The latest is dated July 24 and posted here.

In his article Lawrence notes that “[t]he chief researchers active on the DNC case are four: William Binney, formerly the NSA’s technical director for world geopolitical and military analysis and designer of many agency programs now in use; Kirk Wiebe, formerly a senior analyst at the NSA’s SIGINT Automation Research Center; Edward Loomis, formerly technical director of the NSA’s Office of Signal Processing; and Ray McGovern, an intelligence analyst for nearly three decades and formerly chief of the CIA’s Soviet Foreign Policy Branch.”

Lawrence’s article presents the analysis based in part on “numerous interviews with all of them conducted in person, via Skype, or by telephone.” The analysis leads to the conclusion that the DNC email was not hacked, but rather leaked by an insider.

Lawrence’s article is shot through with the kind of left-wing rhetoric and allegations one might expect from the Nation. McGovern himself is the co-founder of VIPS and a left-wing activist. I take it that VIPS is a left-wing outfit.

The analysis presented by VIPS and reported by Lawrence nevertheless stands or falls on its own merits. It should be judged on those merits. They are, however, over my head. I can only say the analysis is interesting if true.

At Bloomberg View, Leonid Bershidsky performs a service. He summarizes the analysis and subtracts the rhetoric. Bershidsky’s column is “Why Some U.S. Ex-Spies Don’t Buy the Russia Story.”

UPDATE: I should have made it clear above that the actual research supporting the analysis was conducted by two anonymous workers — “Forensicator” and “Adam Carter” — working off publicly available information. The VIPS appear to be acting basically as publicists in this case.

PowerLine -> Lebron James, Kevin Love and the Google Memo PowerLine -> Lebron James, Kevin Love and the Google Memo Daily Digest Lebron James, Kevin Love and the Google Memo…

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cesarhcastrojr · 7 years

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Before you cross the two page benchmark on your resume with another bullet point, consider deleting cliché and useless information first.

It might take more time to determine what’s okay to remove, but it’s a better strategy than reducing font size or trimming the margins of your resume, which can make your resume look off.

In this article, we take a quick look at what phrases you should remove from your resume. With just a bit of editing, your resume will read with more professionalism and keep within its concise, to the point format.

Are you ready to cut out bad resume phrases? Let's make your resume read better. (graphic source)

Remove These 7 Meaningless Resume Phrases and Words

It's important that every word on your resume pulls its own weight in presenting you as a talented candidate. You don't want anything unessential on your resume that will distract hiring managers.

Here are a few phrases and information you can safely remove from your resume, as they don't add value and take up unnecessary space:

1. “References Available Upon Request”

This phrase is useless because employers will ask for your references when they need it. It's assumed that candidates have already pre-arranged this with their former colleagues and college professors.

Similar resume phrases to delete: “References Upon Request,” “References Provided Upon Request” and “Resume References Available Upon Request”.

2. “Resume”

Don’t put the word “Resume” at the top of your application. The fact that you’re sending a resume should be obvious the instant someone opens the file.

It also doesn’t help if you use “Resume” as the document’s file name. Add your complete name so hiring managers can easily find it.

3. “Duties Included”

“Duties Included” is often written before the list of bullet points for each job title listed in the resume’s work experience section.

It’s not just a waste of space. It also suggests that you only did what you were paid to do—nothing more and nothing less. Instead, write bullet points about your achievements and job-specific skills to stand out from other candidates. Don’t waste this space on everyday duties.

Similar phrase to delete: “Responsible for”.

Resumes

How to Write Your Resume Work Experience Section Right

Charley Mendoza

4. Personal Data

Only your email, phone number, and address are needed in your resume. Your birthday, Social Security number, and religious or political views are unnecessary, and may even hinder your application.

Curriculum Vitae in other countries might require personal information, especially if used for immigration purposes. But most States prevent employers from seeking personal information to uphold equal opportunity employment.

Resumes

What is the Difference Between a CV vs Resume?

Charley Mendoza

5. Obvious Skills

Nissar Ahamed of Career Metis says, “Remove Microsoft Word, Excel, and other common applications from your resume. These are bare essential skills for any job function today. You are only stating the obvious, and it does not add any value to your resume.”

Employers assume you already have these skills anyway, and no one will use them as keywords when searching for applicants in an ATS.

Neely Raffellini of the 9 to 5 Project also shared another obvious skill to delete: communication skills.

She explains, “When I critique resumes, my biggest comment is ‘What does this mean?’ Simply listing communication skills is vague, if you think about it from the employer’s prospective.”

6. Employer Contact Information

Listing your employer’s address and phone number is unnecessary. Like the phrase “References available upon request,” this information is useless at this point in your application.

Your potential employer doesn’t need it until they start conducting a background check on you, which isn’t until you bested other applicants in the interview process.

Giving your employer’s phone number and email address too early can also jeopardize your current employment. All office calls and emails are monitored, so it’s best to avoid using these communication lines if you don’t want to be accused of intellectual property theft or misuse of business resources. You can get fired earlier than you planned if your boss finds out you’re looking for another job.

7. “Selected As”

Applicants often use this phrase to cite work projects they were chosen to lead or manage. Being in charge of a group of people or a major project is impressive, but employers are more interested in what you did with that power.

Examples

For an Account Manager chosen to work in liaison with different teams:

"Directed team sales presentation efforts, leading to huge contracts with major food and beverage corporations"

For a Team Leader chosen as an Interim General Manager for a failing golf and leisure club:

"Created a kid’s day camp program that grew over 350% in 5 years"

As you can see from the examples, it’s better to explain what happened while you’re in charge, instead of stating you were selected for a task and leaving it at that.

Delete These 12 Cliché and Useless Phrases From Your Resume

A study from Princeton University revealed that applicants who used highfalutin words in their writing were thought of as untrustworthy and overcompensating by their colleagues.

Remember that study, next time you’re tempted to use a big word in your resume or cover letter.

This section includes different superfluous words, clichés, and useless resume phrases that lost its meaning because of overuse from applicants.

8. “Utilized”

“Utilized” is probably the most common fancy word applicants use when they want to add a little gravitas to their work. “Use” just seems lacking when written alongside employment achievements, maybe because it’s just a three letter, one syllable word.

Simply replacing “use” with “utilize” doesn’t make your achievements a little grander though. It’s better to quantify the achievement, or find a better action verb to describe what you did.

Resumes

How to Best Use Resume Action Words (+117 Powerful Verbs)

Charley Mendoza

9. “Experienced…”

“Experienced Social Media Manager,” “Experienced Graphic Designer,” and “Experienced Front-Web Developer,” these are all common ways applicants describe themselves on their resumes.

The word doesn’t say much about the quality of your experience in your field. You can be considered “experienced” in a particular task whether you’ve done it 10 times or every day for two years. It’s an imprecise way to describe length or quality of work rendered.

Writing “Experienced in developing social media reports” is redundant if your job title is already listed as “Social Media Analyst,” for example. A better way to describe your experience is to list the types of reports you create, and how often you make them.

Similar words to delete from your resume: “Seasoned,” “qualified,” “well-versed” and “skilled”.

Resumes

How to Effectively List Professional Skills on Your Resume

Charley Mendoza

10. “Results Driven”

Career Coach Margaret Buj, says, “I see a lot of resumes of people who say they’re ‘results-driven.’ Says who?”

Buj suggests replacing this phrase with events in your previous employment that prove your drive for results.

Similar resume phrase to delete: “Results oriented” and “goal oriented”.

11. Dependable

Cheryl Palmer of Call to Career, says “Dependable doesn’t add value to the resume, because every worker should be dependable.”

If you think about it, who would hire an applicant who admits they’re not dependable?

Come up with a better way to describe how you’re a reliable and consistent performer instead. Don’t just use fluffy words, try to recall moments in your previous work where you had to go the extra mile when everyone else couldn’t deliver.

Similar phrases to delete: “Loyal” and “trustworthy”.

12. “Passionate”

Everyone says they’re passionate about their work. But in reality, a good chunk of those people are just passionate about receiving a paycheck.

It’s okay, employers know this that’s why being ‘passionate’ about a job is such a cliché. So there’s no need to feign interest in your resume. You can be good at something without liking it. Besides, your skills, previous employment experience, and educational background are better indicators of your ability as a candidate.

13. “Exceptional”

Palmer says applicants who describe their skills and previous work experience as “exceptional” come across as self-congratulatory.

Coming of as an arrogant applicant can put your application at risk, if you don’t list equally amazing feats to validate your claims. It’s a subjective phrase like results-driven.

List the awards and recognition you’ve won from previous employers if you want to talk about how exceptional you are:

1st Place, Innovation in Engineering Award, 2015

2nd Place, Security Bank Hackathon, 2016

14. “Team Player” and “People Person”

Your resume states you’re a team player or a people person. Unfortunately, the recruiter just can’t take your word for it. You have to show them how you’ve worked in teams before, and the result of said group effort.

Examples

Launched a successful Kickstarter Campaign that won over 250% in funding by collaborating with the marketing, product development, and customer service teams

Collaborated with the accounting division to reduce overall budget by $300,000 and long term debt by 15%.

15. “Self-Starter”

This is just a different way of saying you have initiative. Like “team player,” you need to show proof of this to make it believable in your resume. Mention a time when your initiative averted a problem, or saved your employer money.

16. “Dynamic”

What does “dynamic” even mean on a resume?

Does it mean the applicant is constantly changing, or does it refer to the applicant’s energy level? Either way, this quality is of no interest to employers. It’s also quite hard to describe this quality in an objective and tangible way on paper.

17. “Flexible”

Unless you’re applying for a freelance role, employers already expect that you’re willing to adjust your schedule to fulfill your duties at work.

Highlight your flexibility instead by chronicling simultaneous projects you handled for one employer. This demonstrates your flexibility in terms of the workload that you can handle, and the variety of tasks you can juggle without losing track.

Here’s an example for how an HR Manager can show flexibility:

Supervise 3 direct reports in the compensation and benefits administration of a 100-man workforce

Identify unnecessary tasks to save manpower and reduce labor costs

Review company-sponsored retirement plans to ensure compliance with IRS’ rules

18. “Assisted”

This isn’t a vague word or overused cliché, it’s much worse because it downplays your value.

Applicants sometimes use this word when they refer to tasks they were involved in. It’s an all-encompassing term, that’s why it’s easier to write “assisted” when there’s a better suited word like “collaborated,” “contributed,” or “directed.”

Writing “assisted” instead of taking time to come up with a more appropriate verb for your action makes your contribution sound petty, as if all you did was take notes or make copies.

Compare the Following

“Assisted in creating a cross-departmental social group for hiking and volunteer events”

“Gathered interested participants from different teams to create a cross-departmental social group for hiking and volunteer events”

The first sentence doesn’t state what kind of assistance you provided in forming said social group, while the second sentence makes it clear that you played a major role in finding participants from different teams, and making them come together to join the group.

Here’s Another Comparison

“Assisted the HR Team in onboarding new interns”

“Guided interns on their first day at work by introducing them to the team they will work with, and touring them around the office”

19. Hard-worker

Don’t bother claiming you’re a hard worker in your resume. Everyone else is doing it.

Employers evaluate a candidate’s hard work based on the awards they’ve won and the difference they made to the company’s bottom line.

Similar phrase to delete: “Dedicated”.

It's Now Time to Edit Your Resume

Open your resume document now, and start deleting these cliché and unnecessary phrases.

If you’re concerned your resume will be shorter and in turn make you look less qualified, don’t worry. There’s no evidence that suggests a long resume leads to more job offers.

But if you’re eager to fill in the blanks, you can always add resume power phrases, new skills, and experience into your resume. Learn more in these helpful Envato Tuts+ resume tutorials:

Careers

How to Make Your Resume the Perfect Length (+To the Point)

Charley Mendoza

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How to Update and Improve Your Outdated Resume Quickly

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You can also find popular resume templates on GraphicRiver, if you need to give your resume a professional design. Or, browse through more great resume templates in this curated selection of easy to use designs:

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20+ Professional MS Word Resume Templates - With Simple Designs

Marc Schenker

What phrases do you feel are important to remove from your resume? Let us know in the comments below.

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