#write postcards to voters

[the-forest-library]

Send Postcards To Voters - New Availability!

Sign-ups for postcards are back open as Postcards to Swing States makes a final push for 40 million postcards to rally Democrats to vote! They will likely send you postcards for a competitive US House district or Florida, though they have some additional voter lists for swing states and Ohio. If you aren't willing to write to voters for whatever list they send you, please do not sign up.

The mailing dates for these final orders are between Oct 24 and Oct 29. They'll ship the postcards as quickly as possible. There's also an option to opt-in to write postcards to persuadable seniors about the importance of voting for Democrats in order to protect social security from Republican proposals to cut this vital program.   Please note: You will be responsible for providing Postcard Stamps, which are currently $0.56. They'll mail you free postcards, along with voter lists and instructions with proven message options.

[helloenee]

a few weeks ago i decided to try to volunteer my time and be a bit more politically active. just a bit. writing postcards is a great intro to political volunteering.

i thought of text and phone banking but those require a bit more involvement. but not too much! you just follow some instructions, really. and you'd be using a google voice number instead of your own.

anyway. my stack of postcards has arrived! i'm following the instructions of what to write. maybe 1 or 2 people of this batch of 200 will actually go vote when they otherwise wouldn't have. i'll be very glad if so.

[qqueenofhades]

do you have any suggestions for organizations or groups or something that are doing any kind of voting campaign/vote dem campaign? i remember in 2020 there was a huge push to do phone banking in swing states, but im seeing almost none of that now, and its making me a bit nervous about the outcome of the election

Sure! Here are some ideas:

Find your state Democratic party for specific networking/volunteering/connecting opportunities in your city or region:

Or volunteer for the national party:

Volunteer for the Biden-Harris campaign! Apparently, regardless of whatever media bullshit it set off, the debate DID result in a huge surge of campaign volunteers in swing states especially, so this is a great time to sign up:

Write postcards for Democratic voters!

Or postcards especially for Democratic voters in swing states:

Have the spoons to make phone calls for Democrats? Do it here:

Read Hopium Chronicles: it is a much-needed antidote to media doomerism and it gives lots of daily volunteering/donating/action tips to Do More, Worry Less:

Give money to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris:

Give to 12 Democrats running in highly flippable House races:

Give or volunteer for a Democratic Senate (ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT if we're going to flip SCOTUS and the map is very hairy this year):

Doing even a bit of this will help you feel better than sitting and worrying. Good luck and go get 'em!

[sashayed]

I haven't said as much about electoral politics this year as I have in previous cycles, because I am exhausted like everyone else and have nothing new or helpful to add. That is still true, so caveat lector I guess lmao!!! Happy American Election Day Fellow Sufferers!!

I have been experiencing an internal backlash the last few years to my extremely Sorkinpilled D.C. private school upbringing -- my childhood spent as a kind of convent schoolgirl in the faith of The System Is Good If We All Participate, which of course has a uhhh let's say generously a minimal engagement with the ways in which many of us are by design shut out of participating. I don't think idealism is necessarily childish, but I think MY idealism certainly has childish qualities, an undergirding of 90s feel-goodism, of civic participation as a subtle ego stroke and of voting -- although I would never have consciously put it this way -- as a way to feel superior to people who don't vote.

Lately there has bubbled up in me a sludgy, adolescent fury at this whole stupid country that has made it very very hard to feel like I should do even the bare minimum. For these people? AMERICANS? The ones that not only want Donald Trump to be president but saw what happened the first time and were like, We love this, do it again but worse? Whatever, fuckos. "I hope you people get your dearest wish and it chews you to death slowly," I may have thought.

I have also thought: why is it so controversial to ask elected officials to stop funding a genocide? Why are we treating people who make that ask, who are watching the current administration directly fund death on a mass scale and objecting to that choice, as if they are being babies and just need to get over it? How are they supposed to get over it? Why is anybody over it?

Anyway all this means that I, a known chipper door-knocker and caller of congresspeople, have been pretty low-key this current cycle. I think that is OK. I don't want to make this a big dramatic confessional about how I didn't write enough postcards or whatever. We all get exhausted and this was my turn.

But it has also been an illuminating cycle in that it's made it clear to me how much at my big age I still want politics to make me feel good, and when they don't, I still have the urge to throw a lil tantrum about it! I can get very superior and intellectual about how right-wing operatives manipulate their voters emotionally WITHOUT EVEN NOTICING that I too have been manipulated, in my case into the feeling that nonparticipation is a kind of revolutionary act.* Just absolute "I threw it on the GROUND" logic happening inside my head. "Maybe if I don't vote I will be doing Quiet Quitting, which is uhhhhh anticapitalist." I'm not a part of your system!!!

Anyway, I am trying to have self-compassion about it, and one way for me to do that is to project my internal experience onto a theoretical reader. That would be you, my imaginary friend who clicked on this post for some reason even though you have already decided not to vote! I just want to tell you that I am more sympathetic to your point of view than I have ever been in my whole life, and I'm sorry I have historically been a glib, holier-than-thou asshole about it in ways that may actually have made you MORE resistant to civic participation.

And you're right: it doesn't make that big a difference whether I personally vote or not, or whether you do. But if there are hundreds of us, and I think there are, then each of those people individually do starts to matter.

I guess I would humbly request that you and I both pay attention to what people who need help are actually asking for. I would ask that we both notice who wins when we abdicate this single responsibility. I would remind us both that participating in the electoral process is not some kind of weird either-or with participating in decentralized community building and mutual aid, and the best people we know do both. Isn't it interesting that somehow, insidiously, without even consciously becoming aware of this belief, we have started to think that you can only do one or the other? Who is telling us that story? Who does it serve?

Anyway. I took the stupid 90 minute round trip to my polling place which was VERY hot for some reason and I stood in the stupid line and some babies waved at me and I cast my vote for Kamala Harris and I'm glad I did it in the same way I'm glad after I do the dishes or take a stupid shower. Doing work doesn't always feel like anything. I also saw a really wonderful small black and white dog that I thought was a cat on a leash. I would not have seen that dog if I hadn't gone to vote. So politics can still make you feel good!!!

*I mean all this analysis is cute and everything BUT ALSO i did switch antidepressants twice in the last year, an astonishingly grueling process that almost made me [affect the trout population]. Could these things be related? hmmmmmmm, don't understand the question, won't respond to it.

[visenyaism]

instead of having a weird parasocial meltdown about a 26 year old musician none of us have ever met’s perfectly understandable frustration with the democratic party you could also like. check your voter registration. make sure you and your friends have a plan to vote and know where to go. google what’s going to be on your ballot. write some postcards. phone bank. canvas. attend a protest. pick up a broom. do literally anything productive

[mostlysignssomeportents]

When prophecy fails, election polling edition

In Canto 20 of Inferno, Dante confronts a pit where the sinners have had their heads twisted around backwards; they trudge, naked and weeping, through puddles of cooling tears. Virgil informs him that these are the fortunetellers, who tried to look forwards in life and now must look backwards forever.

In a completely unrelated subject, how about those election pollsters, huh?

Writing for The American Prospect, historian Rick Perlstein takes a hard look at characteristic failure modes of election polling and ponders their meaning:

https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/

Apart from the pre-election polling chaos we're living through today, Perlstein's main inspiration is W Joseph Campbell 2024 University of California Press book, Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in US Presidential Elections:

https://www.ucpress.edu/books/lost-in-a-gallup/paper

In Campbell's telling, US election polling follows a century-old pattern: pollsters discover a new technique that works spookily well..for a while. While the new polling technique works, the pollster is hailed a supernaturally insightful fortune-teller.

In 1932, the Raleigh News and Observer was so impressed with polling by The Literary Digest that they proposed replacing elections with Digest's poll. The Digest's innovation was sending out 20,000,000 postcards advertising subscriptions and asking about presidential preferences. This worked perfectly for three elections – 1924, 1928, and 1932. But in 1936, the Digest blew it, calling the election for Alf Landon over FDR.

The Digest was dethroned, and new soothsayers were appointed: George Gallup, Elmo Roper and Archibald Crossler, who replaced the Digest's high-volume polling with a new kind of poll, one that sought out a representative slice of the population (as Perlstein says, this seems "so obvious in retrospect, you wonder how nobody thought of it before").

Representative polling worked so well that, three elections later, the pollsters declared that they could predict the election so well from early on that there was no reason to keep polling voters. They'd just declare the winner after the early polls were in and take the rest of the election off.

That was in 1948 – you know, 1948, the "Dewey Defeats Truman" election?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman

If this sounds familiar, perhaps you – like Perlstein – are reminded of the 2016 election, where Fivethirtyeight and Nate Silver called the election for Hillary Clinton, and we took them at their word because they'd developed a new, incredibly accurate polling technique that had aced the previous two elections.

Silver's innovation? Aggregating state polls, weighting them by accuracy, and then producing a kind of meta-poll that combined their conclusions.

When Silver's prophecy failed in 2016, he offered the same excuse that Gallup gave in 1948: when voters are truly undecided, you can't predict how they'll vote, because they don't know how they'll vote.

Which, you know, okay, sure, that's right. But if you know that the election can't be called, if you know that undecided voters are feeding noise into the system whenever you poll them, then why report the polls at all? If all the polling fluctuation is undecided voters flopping around, not making up their mind, then the fact that candidate X is up 5 points with undecided means nothing.

As the finance industry disclaimer has it, "past performance is no guarantee of future results." But, as Perlstein says, "past performance is all a pollster has to go on." When Nate Silver weights his model in favor of a given poll, it's based on that poll's historical accuracy, not its future accuracy, because its future accuracy can't be determined until it's in the past. Like Dante's fortune-tellers, pollsters have to look backwards even as they march forwards.

Of course, it doesn't help that in some cases, Silver was just bad at assessing polls for accuracy, like when he put polls from the far-right "shock pollster" Trafalgar Group into the highly reliable bucket. Since 2016, Trafalgar has specialized in releasing garbage polls that announce that MAGA weirdos are way ahead, and because they always say that, they were far more accurate than the Clinton-predicting competition in 2016 when they proclaimed that Trump had it in the bag. For Silver, this warranted an "A-" on reliability, and that is partially to blame for how bad Silver's 2020 predictions were, when Republicans got pasted, but Trafalgar continued to predict a Democratic wipeout. Silver's methodology has a huge flaw: because Trafalgar's prediction history began in 2016, that single data-point made them look pretty darned reliable, even though their method was to just keep saying the same thing, over and over:

https://www.ettingermentum.news/p/the-art-of-losing-a-fivethirtyeight

Pollsters who get lucky with a temporarily reliable methodology inevitably get cocky and start cutting corners. After all, polling is expensive, so discontinuing the polls once you think you have an answer is a way to increase the enterprise's profitability. But, of course, pollsters can only make money so long as they're somewhat reliable, which leads to a whole subindustry of excuse-making when this cost-cutting bites them in the ass. In 1948, George Gallup blamed his failures on the audience, who failed to grasp the "difference between forecasting an election and picking the winner of a horse race." In 2016, Silver declared that he'd been right because he'd given Trump at 28.6% chance of winning.

This isn't an entirely worthless excuse. If you predict that Clinton's victory is 71.4% in the bag, you are saying that Trump might win. But pollsters want to eat their cake and have it, too: when they're right, they trumpet their predictive accuracy, without any of the caveats they are so insistent upon when they blow it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jDlo7YfUxc

There's always some excuse when it comes to the polls: in 1952, George Gallup called the election a tossup, but it went for Eisenhower in a landslide. He took out a full-page NYT ad, trumpeting that he was right, actually, because he wasn't accounting for undecided voters.

Polling is ultimately a form of empiricism-washing. The pollster may be counting up poll responses, but that doesn't make the prediction any less qualitative. Sure, the pollster counts responses, but who they ask, and what they do with those responses, is purely subjective. They're making guesses (or wishes) about which people are likely to vote, and what it means when someone tells you they're undecided. This is at least as much an ideological project as it is a scientific one:

https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2024-09-23-polling-whiplash/

But for all that polling is ideological, it's a very thin ideology. When it comes to serious political deliberation, questions like "who is likely to vote" and "what does 'undecided' mean" are a lot less important than, "what are the candidates promising to do?" and "what are the candidates likely to do?"

But – as Perlstein writes – the only kind of election journalism that is consistently, adequately funded is poll coverage. As a 1949 critic put it, this isn't the "pulse of democracy," it's "its baby talk."

Today, Tor Books publishes VIGILANT, a new, free LITTLE BROTHER story about creepy surveillance in distance education. It follows SPILL, another new, free LITTLE BROTHER novella about oil pipelines and indigenous landback.

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/09/26/dewey-beats-truman/#past-performance-is-no-guarantee-of-future-results

[batboyblog]

How concerned do you think we should be about election officials who are election deniers refusing to certify results? I’m trying not to be anxious about it but it is a challenge.

well this was a worrying moment

my understanding is that Mr. Richer will oversee this election before his term is done, it's super duper VERY VERY important that any Arizona voters who see this make sure to vote all the way down to the Democrat Tim Stringham to make sure ALL Americans get free and fair elections.

ANY WAYS, how worried should you be? well, I think its always important to not let fear and worry paralyze you, its important to remember that in 2020 election deniers did try, but Joe Biden had won too many states, they had to try to overturn Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, too many state courts, too many election officials, too many moving parts. So our best hope of frustrating them again is to win big. Many of them will lose their nerve and not want to be on the "losing side" which again happened in 2020 with most Republicans going along with the election. In 2024 Trump will be an old-old man, to try to run again for President he'd be 82 years old, everyone says his public appearances have slipped from the past, his legal battles drag on, he could be sentenced to jail in 2025, all to say if I'm a scummy Republican Congressman in January 2025 and Trump has lost every swing state commandingly I'm not sticking my neck out for him.

SO! you want to feel better? you want to not feel worried, get involved, its the only cure, I swear to god it is, I know no one believes me when I say that but its true, want to not have election anxiety? Volunteer, the anxiety comes from a sense of a huge out of control event looming over you, if you take action your brain won't feel out of control, you will feel better.

look for an event to volunteer with here, if you live somewhere super red or blue without an important Senate/House race, I recommend checking Run for Something they support young progressive candidates running for lower profile offices. If you're super stressed about the federal thing Democrats do Phone Banking a group called Field Team 6 is doing Text Banking to help register likely Democrats in key states, Swing Left is writing letters and Progressive Turnout is doing Postcards starting on the 5th

EVERYONE! can do SOMETHING! even from their own home, but trust me, door knocking is the easiest, most satisfying, and most cathartic thing you can do. And it's all any of us can do about Republicans plotting, win, and win big.

[gingersnapwolves]

so I had some thoughts on the burnout post but didn't want to hijack it so this is just my own rambling attempt to process the feelings I've been struggling with for two days which obviously not everyone wants to read, thus my putting a read more

I've been crying off and on for the past couple days which is really no surprise, and I've been trying to avoid political news and political posts. In fact, after this I plan to hide the political tags for a while, heavily curate my Reddit experience, and then do I don't even know what with all my new free time

because I don't talk about it a lot here, this is my fandom space, my casual space, and I'll sometimes post about personal stuff but almost never politics, but I am actually very political. 'member of multiple political mailing lists, have marched in many protests, write postcards to swing state voters' political. and I want to talk a little about why this defeat feels different. because this crushed me in a way that 2016 did not.

the thing is. over the past few days I've seen a lot of people talking about how if you didn't realize Trump was going to win, you live in a bubble. and I think to a certain extent that's true. we all have our little echo chambers. but for me, at least, and a lot of the people I know, it wasn't just that. it was this core certainty that Trump would not win, could not win, because surely our country wasn't like that. surely our fellow Americans were not like that. it wasn't about competency or about policy. it was about basic human decency. and that's what I feel like we lost. not an election. but any remaining belief we had that people are basically good.

because it seems they're not. at least not around here. the cold hard fact at the end of the day is that the majority of our country looked at a senile, racist, fascist criminal grifter [eta: how could I forget rapist in that description?] and either actively wanted him to hold the highest office in the land, or just didn't care whether or not he did. they know exactly what he's going to do, and they're fine with it. and that hurts so much that it is nearly unbearable.

how do you move on from that? how do you cope with the fact that there's something so deeply rotten at the core of your fellow man? how do you deal with that? how do you fight back?

I am full of so much grief that I literally don't know where to put it.

so I don't want to fight anymore. I'm tired. I'm nauseated. I'm angry. But most of all, I'm sad. I can't do it right now. and I think that's probably okay. I think in six weeks or six months I'll feel differently. but right now I just can't do it. and I think the most important thing really can be to take a step back and focus on something else. because I know these feelings are not productive. I know that there are still good people out there and there are still things worth fighting for. but right now, all I feel is this aching chasm where my faith in humanity used to be.

so I'm unplugging - not from fandom or tumblr, but from politics and news - for at least a little while. sometimes that's the most important thing to do if you want to still be able to get out of bed in the morning.

[tanadrin]

i was thinking about the issue of political deadlock the other day and what to do in a parliamentary system if a government is really unpopular, clearly has no legitimacy, but refuses to call early elections, and is clinging on til the end of its term. and of course there's no reason they have to; but if you did want a popular way to bypass this mechanism, you could do something like this:

every voter is issued a chit in the form of a pre-stamped postcard that just says "SNAP ELECTION" on it. possibly you get one at each general election--you vote, you hand in your ballot, they hand you a postcard; there are never more postcards in circulation than there are voters. and when you think it's time for a snap election to be called, you drop your postcard in the mail. when the election comission or whoever gets a certain number of postcards from voters, a snap election must be called. all postcards issued at the last election are now void (they probably should have a date stamped on them or something), and the counter starts over.

alternatively, you have a national bureau of public opinion that does lots of in-depth high-resource data collection about political opinions, like the BLS or something, and there's some specific criteria--like if public opinion of the government falls below a certain threshold and stays there for a prolonged period of time--that allows a special officer, the Tribune of Popular Discontent, to call snap elections. this is his only job. it is a non-partisan position, and he has very little discretion about how to use his power. he's just the guy outside of the official partisan government whose job it is to press the big red button marked "snap election" if the government can't stop pissing people off. and maybe there's a time limit to it, too, like every government gets a minimum of 18 months, or the threshold for calling a snap election in that interval is way higher.

another variation i just thought of on the postcard system: if you send in your postcard, you get to write in the name of one politician you really, really hate. if enough people name that politician, they are not eligible to be PM or to be in the cabinet at all. the threshold for this would be high--it would not be possible to ostracize more than one or two people per election this way--but if someone is just really hated by a sufficiently high fraction of the populace, they get to be relieved of the burden of seeing their face in the newspaper for a while. plus it would be really funny to see whose name got written in even if they didn't actually get ostracized.

[feedists4progress]

WHY US? WHY NOW?

Politicians are not perfect people. Voting, especially in the US, is not a perfect system. It's not the be-all end-all of political action and it certainly does not fix everything wrong with our nation and political system. It certainly does not fix the United States' complicity in the Palestinian genocide or its other atrocities overseas.

BUT.

The Harris campaign, by virtue of choosing Tim Walz over any of the other options, more has already demonstrated its willingness to listen to its would-be constituents over voices and donors from within the Democratic party urging them to choose a running mate who caters to the moderate center. In this choice, Harris has already demonstrated that she is flexible: she is not immune to pressure from the people she hopes to govern. This alone gives us as voters and constituents so much more leverage to apply pressure on her administration to achieve political victories we actually want: a ceasefire in Gaza, universal healthcare, nationwide abortion access, protected trans rights and trans healthcare, and more.

There is SO MUCH on the line in this election — and so many of the issues at risk this year are or are adjacent to fat liberation and queer issues:

Healthcare and prescription reform

Racial equity and justice

Abortion access (reminder that Plan B is less effective for those over 155 lbs!)

Trans rights, safety, and healthcare access

LGBTQIA+ rights

Disability rights and healthcare (including Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security)

Environmental reform and climate change mitigation

Public health and vaccine funding

Public education funding and related infrastructure

Labor rights

We have a lot to lose this year. But if we can elect an administration that is at least invested in moving forward, we'll also have a lot to gain.

SO, WHAT CAN I DO?

Check your voter registration!

Text voters and help them register!

Phonebank or textbank for blue candidates!

Write postcards to voters in swing states!

Knock doors if you're able!

Join a voter protection & registration hotline!

Donate to your local candidates (find them here)!

If you're not sure where to start, these organizations host tons of events you can get involved with:

Democrats.org

Democratic Volunteer Center

Field Team 6

Mobilize

Sister District

Swing Blue

Swing Left

Vote Save America

WHY TIM WALZ?

The guy gets it. Need I say more?

[jomiddlemarch]

US Tumblrians, this is our time to shine! Break out your fine-tip markers and your favorite playlists and beverage of choice and get ready to save democracy-- from your home! If you are under 18, you can still participate!

These postcards have been found to increase voter turnout by about 1.3% which is actually A Big F-ing Deal when you consider the margin of victory in swing states.

States getting postcards (drum roll...): Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin!

In many of these states, there are bills to protect access to reproductive health AS WELL AS the presidential and Senate elections.

You are sent a list of addresses and three templated messages to choose from. You order as few as 200 postcards and the mail date is in October. They also send you the state themed postcards and there are always a few extras for mistakes and keepsakes. I keep a card from every campaign I write for (assuming I have one) in the same album I keep all my holiday photo cards.

Save democracy! Use your voice! You can include children in this and if you have issues with handwriting and the financial leeway, you can simply donate to the organization. If all you can do is reblog this post, that counts too (and if you're not from the US but you still want to reblog this, thanks!)

I'd love to see this post go big, so am tagging some good friends because that's the way we make a difference-- TOGETHER!

Tagging @tessa-quayle @fericita-s @mercurygray @tortoisesshells @asteraceae-blue @amarguerite @aquitainequeen @oldshrewsburyian @artielu @iamstartraveller776 @theburnbarreljester @orlissa and anyone else who is willing!

[meeedeee]

Postcards to Swing States has resumed sign ups. Write 200 postcards to voters to encourage them to vote. It's an ideal group activity for family & friends. You will be sent the postcards and a script, you provide the stamps. Cards are mailed on Oct 24th

Don't have local family and friends who are interested in joining? Get together with online family or friends on Discord or Zoom every week to write postcards together while you catch up

https://secure.everyaction.com/xBntChpfDUK3GTMhkutwsA2

[the-forest-library]

Help Get the Vote Out - US

Sending postcards to encourage registered voters to vote in the upcoming election is an easy way you can help get the vote out from home. I’ve done this through two different organizations: Postcards to Voters and Postcards to Swing States.

With this group, you:

Purchase your own postcards.

Purchase stamps.

Can choose the to send smaller amounts of postcards (e.g, 10).

With this group, you:

Will receive free postcards from the organization.

Purchase stamps.

Send larger amounts of postcards (from what I’ve seen, the minimum is 200, but you can write them over time or get some folks to help you).

Stamps

Buy postcard stamps, not first class stamps - they’re cheaper!

[qqueenofhades]

You have farther reach than I ever will. If you haven’t already please encourage people, especially those in swing states, to canvas for Kamala Harris. Doorknocking, phonebanking, textbanking, writing postcards (there are several different postcards to encourage voting), even attending the rallies. Please encourage people to get involved however they can

Oh believe me friendo, I am on it. I made this post (before Biden dropped out of the race) with a comprehensive list of links for action items:

My followers @jomiddlemarch and @figuring-421 have also been very involved in volunteering/postcarding/spearheading vote-blue efforts, and might have more ideas beyond those listed here. I will also repost some of the popular items directly:

Get out there, donate money if you can, work hard, and let's do this!

[larkandkatydid]

I can't canvas because I don't have a car, but my local Democratic party has it so that I'm able to phonebank from home and now I phonebank for Kamala/Walz every weekend. with just my cellphone and a list of voters the Democratic party sends me. Most people don't pick up the phone, but it's nice to get to talk to the ones that do. I write letters and postcards from home too. There are a lot of options if you want to volunteer!

Yes! Phonebanking is a great option if you want to do something really effective that doesn't require you to drive anywhere or live near a swing state.

If people want to try it out, here's a mobilize link from Vote Save America, which I'm using because their options are often especially great for first time volunteers.