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delimeful · 4 years ago

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(dont) take this the wrong way (5)

warnings: injury, blood mentions, past psychological&emotional&physical abuse, ptsd, sickness

Virgil woke up, which was only unsurprising for the few moments it took him to 1. realize that his head was pounding and 2. remember the two very large reasons why.

His eyes flew open, and he found himself half-submerged in a shallow pool of cool water, surrounded by flat ledges of dry rock. The sound of ocean waves lapping against the cliffside echoed around the cavern, which was dimly lit by overhead cracks in the ceiling.

In one of these beams of paltry light, Logan was slumped over on his side, glasses askew. Virgil’s relief at seeing him was instantly overshadowed by terror at what could have happened to the human after Virgil had gone and gotten his skull knocked against rock.

His headache worsened, and he lifted a hand to press against the sore spot, pausing when he found more of those stiff bandage strips wrapped around his head.

The soft sloshing of water seemed to be enough to startle Logan into wakefulness, and the human brightened slightly at the sight of him. “Virgil. It’s good to see you awake. Are you feeling any pain or nausea?”

“What happened?” Virgil replied in lieu of the real answer, which was ‘everything hurts’. “Where are we, I thought we were dead for sure—!”

“Take a few deep breaths,” Logan advised, shuffling closer to the pool and offering a hand. Virgil took it gratefully. “We’re not currently in any danger. I believe we’re at the home of the seal-hybrid mer, if—“

“We’re what?!” Virgil’s voice dropped to a horrified double pitch, his grip on Logan’s hand instantly turning crushing.

“Ow,” Logan said in a pointed monotone. Virgil eased up before his claws could turn the human’s palm into bloody ribbons. “Let me finish, please. I’ve managed to work out a rudimentary method of communication, and as far as I know, we’re not currently at risk.”

“From the giant mer-eating monsters that literally kidnapped us, you mean?”

“Yes, that was the potential risk I was referring to.” Logan pulled Virgil further upright, reaching out with his free hand. “More importantly, you’ve been out for some time. Will you allow me to take a look at your injury?”

Virgil shuffled a little closer, allowing the hand to make contact with him. He had traversed currents of all temperatures, but in chilled still waters like this, Logan’s warmth was more than welcome. “I dunno how that’s more important than our inevitable, rapidly-approaching deaths, but sure, fine. Knock yourself out.”

“I will not? You are already dealing with a likely concussion, I see no reason to double that number.” Logan squinted at him like he was concerned that the head wound had taken a worse toll than he’d thought.

“No, it’s-- it’s just an expression. Don’t actually pass out, or I’ll freak out.”

“Ah,” Logan acknowledged, his hand twitching like he wanted to grab something before returning to carefully peeling the bandages away. “My apologies. Colloquialisms are not my strong suit.”

Virgil blinked back at him, because five syllable words were a little much even when he wasn’t concussed. “No worries?”

Logan continued to gently probe the back of his head. A sharp pang made him jerk away with a muted hiss, his vision blurring with pain as the sharp motion only agitated all his other cuts. He waved off Logan’s apology before it was fully formed. “S’fine. What’s the damage?”

“The bleeding has stopped, which is a good sign. It’s swelled significantly, but the cool water is hopefully helping reduce that as well. The best course of action now is for you to rest and recover in a dark, quiet place, ideally for at least two full days.”

“Yeah, but that’s not happening unless we get away first,” Virgil shot back, irritably twitching his fins down as Logan rewrapped the injury. The human let out a slow breath.

“Virgil. I believe the situation isn’t as dire as you think.” He settled back on his heels, back stiff as he spoke. “Our captors have shown no signs of aggression or hunger, even with the significant bleeding from your head wound. It’s possible--”

“It’s not possible!” Virgil cut him off, scowling fiercely. “That doesn’t mean anything. They’re playing some kind of sick game the way they always do, and if you let them trick you, you’re going to lose!”

Logan looked back at him inquisitively, still not getting it. “What evidence are you basing this off of? I was under the impression that you’ve spent only marginally more time in their company than me. Have they attempted to trick you in the past?”

“Yes, no, I mean--,” Virgil groaned, pulling at his bangs. “They don’t have to say it. That’s just how giants like them operate. We’re smaller, they can do what they want to us, we don’t get a say in it. You escape or you die.”

“Yet, we’ve been in their admittedly less-than-ideal care for over 24 hours, and they haven’t hurt us or made any indications they intend to hurt us.” Logan gestured expansively, his hand a bit wobbly. “That’s a rather long time to pretend, and for what purpose? If it was what they desired, we have been easy targets for a meal from the moment they relocated us.”

A rather long time to pretend. Virgil swallowed down a hysterical laugh, feeling dizzy. If a day of false niceties was all it took to buy his trust, he’d have never gotten away from his first encounter with a giant mer. “You’re— you’re human. You don’t know anything about this.”

Logan frowned. “I may be human, but that does not make me an idiot. Even with a language barrier, body language and expression are invaluable tools for communication, and I’ve been doing very little but observe them while you were unconscious. Virgil, if you just tried talking to them—“

“No!” he snapped, curling in even as his fins flared wide and threatening. He wouldn’t do this again, wouldn’t be subjected to the world’s most torturous game of catch and release, wouldn’t be lured back into too-tight hands by false promises and meaningless apologies. He couldn’t do that again.

Measured, rhythmic tapping on the back of his hand slowly brought him back to the present, cool air and Logan’s steady voice by his side. His throat was closed-up-too-tight, his gills too far out of the water to switch lungs— but the rhythm was counted out over and over, breathe in, hold, and out.

“There you go,” Logan said as Virgil took in another long, shuddering drag of air. “Well done.”

The air smelled like iron. He realized that somewhere in the past few minutes, he’d dug his claws into the soft sides of the human’s hand, drawing blood. He pulled away as though he’d been burned.

Logan didn’t even twitch, still searching his gaze intently. “Are you with me?”

Virgil nodded stiffly. “Yeah, I— fuck, I’m sorry.”

“No, I shouldn’t have pushed you. I didn’t realize— but I should have.” A deep, resolved breath. “It’s okay. I’ll find you a way out that doesn’t involve interacting with them.” Logan’s gaze went distant and hazy with thought, and Virgil hesitantly drew closer, pulling a bandage free to wrap around his bleeding hand.

… He was really warm. Clammy, too, and he’d been sitting in a cold, wet cave for hours, hadn’t he? Had been completely drenched for even longer.

“You’re sick,” Virgil said, and Logan took a moment too long to refocus on him. How had it taken him so long to notice? “That’s why you need me to talk to them. You need to get home.”

“My illness is no more severe than your injuries,” he deflected, adjusting his glasses clumsily. “Right now, the priority is getting you away from triggering circumstances. If my suspicions are correct, I will be fine regardless.”

Right. His suspicions, based on his willingness to trust his own abductors. He’d trusted Virgil, too, back in those tunnels. He’d known that he might be abandoned and he’d freed Virgil anyways, taken his hand anyways. Gotten hurt for his trouble.

He’d get hurt worse if Virgil left him here.

“... Yeah,” Virgil said, tucking the edge of the bandage in carefully. “But you should sleep for now. We both should. You said they haven’t done anything yet, right?”

“Yes, but…,” Logan’s brow was furrowed slightly, as though he knew something was off, but wasn’t quite sure what. “I mean, you do need rest. If… If you’re sure.”

“I am,” Virgil replied, curling against the edge of the pool and pillowing his head on his arms to hide their shaking. “Get some sleep, Specs.”

—

It was early morning when Patton woke to the splash of something small dropping into the water from his air room.

The room wasn’t overly large, being designed only for occasional use when he needed some extra oxygen in his system. It was also quite a few caves up above his sleeping den, but with two delicate little guests staying over, his senses were on high alert. He disentangled from Roman, who had been clinging to him for extra warmth, waking the shark mer in the process.

“Mwha’huh?” he asked groggily, and Patton chuckled at the way one side of his hair had been pressed into a tangled bundle.

“I think they may be awake!” he reported quietly, and Roman perked right up. They had originally hovered in the room over the two of them, only leaving after the human-- busy tending to the tiny mer’s wounds-- had gotten too fed up and used charades to shoo them away, leaving them with nothing to do but sit around and think about how badly they’d messed up. As such, they were both more than eager to start fixing things.

Upon popping up into the air room, however, they found only the human, lying completely still apart from the slow rise and fall of his chest. Deep in sleep, with an empty pool at his side.

Roman and Patton exchanged a panicked look, and ducked back underwater to search through his home and see where, exactly, the injured mer had gone.

It didn’t take long to spot him. The mer had practically every fin and frill puffed out, even the ones that were still injured. The threat display as eye-catching as they got.

He was hovering in the opening of a vent crevice, one that helped circulate seawater through the caves. It was small enough that if he vanished through it, they wouldn’t be able to stop him or see where he was headed. He knew it, too, staring them down with sharp defiance rather than absolute terror.

“Don’t move,” he said, as though they hadn’t both frozen at the sight of him. “I’m going to-- to make a deal with you.”

“A deal?” Roman asked, and received a sharp, wild-eyed glare for his troubles.

“Yeah, a deal. The other one is sick,” a slight jerk of the head toward the air room, “so he won’t last long here. Probably already too far gone to even play a single game.”

Patton was torn between concern (the human was sick?) and confusion. Game?

“But I’m fine. I’ve had much worse than this.” The mer drifted back slightly, closer to the crevice. “If I leave now, you’ll never find me, and then Lo-- the human will die, and you won’t have anything to play with.”

A creeping sense of dread overcame Patton. He still didn’t know what was going on, but it was sounding more and more like something was seriously wrong here.

“So, a deal. You take the human back to where you found him, and I’ll stay-- I’ll stay here,” his voice cracked painfully, but he ignored it, staring at them with a desperate sort of intensity. “With you. I won’t try to get away or anything. I-- I swear.”

“Get away?” Roman asked, his voice going high with the same sort of horror that currently swamping Patton. The mer ducked back at the sound, gaze flitting between them, some of that terror returning.

“I will! I’ll leave, if you-- you can either have one or none, that’s the deal, I’m not kidding. I’m not!” His fins flared wider, blood beginning to leak from some of them. “He’s human anyways, he can barely even swim, you don’t want him--”

“Kiddo,” Patton cut in urgently, raising his hands peacefully and trying not to wince when the mer flinched, “if he’s sick, of course we’ll take him back to where he can get help. No deals necessary, okay?”

The little guy didn’t look reassured at all. “I want to watch. I have to see you put him back, where other humans will find him, or else the deal’s off.”

He didn't believe them. Patton exchanged a helpless look with Roman, who finally nodded.

“Of course,” the shark mer said, “You are more than welcome to accompany us back to the mainland where Patton found him, provided that you’re not exacerbating your injuries.”

The mer hissed at him, a tiny, reedy sound. “And whose fault is that?”

“Irresponsible human fishing vessels?” Roman tried, and then wilted under both Patton and the mer’s looks when the joke fell flat. He cleared his throat. “It is, of course, mine. I wanted to apologize for the way I manhandled you before. Regardless of my intentions, it was unbefitting behavior, and it hurt you. I am truly sorry.”

He bowed with a little flourish, moving slower than normal. The mer stared at his bowed head apprehensively, and then covered the look up with a distrustful scowl.

“If you’re sorry, get Logan out of this place before he gets any worse,” he finally replied, and Patton nodded and went to retrieve the human-- Logan, presumably.

Glancing over his shoulder as he left, he could see the way the tiny mer’s fins had settled just slightly, not quite as frantically overextended as before.

It was a start.

#sanders sides #ts virgil #ts logan #ts patton #ts roman #mermaid au #my writing #dont take this the wrong way #dtttww #writing #g/t #virgil sweetie what the fuck #- logan next chapter

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twstgameplay · 4 years ago

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In Defense of Defense Tests

For those of you that are wondering “Why is it that my score seems to vary wildly whenever I try a defense test? What exactly do I need to score high?” I present a not-so-light analysis based on the Water Defense test that ran from 16 Jan 2021 - 31 Jan 2021.

This will get end up bit long winded, so I will keep most of it under the cut. I don’t say for certain if this is 100% correct, as this is only based on one sample size of tests. To summarize what I will detail below, what seems to be the key to getting an SSS from our repeated trials is:

Last until Turn 5 (ending on first attack is recommended),

Take ~30k in damage (unless ending on second attack, ~32k),

Have ~60% of health remaining (unless ending on second attack, ~55%).

Minimize taking Neutral/Weak damage as much as possible

Over the course of the two weeks that Water Defense was accessible in game, we attempted the test 125 times (of which 10 were SSS, 98 were SS, and 17 were S) and screen recorded each one. I watched each battle and collected the data points I believed would be a significant factor in determining the Score:

Remaining HP

Total HP(Initial HP + Heals)

Enemy Total HP

Total Damage Dealt

Total Enemy Damage Dealt

Number of [Neutral] Attacks

Number of Enemy [Neutral] Attacks

Second Turn 5 Attack (Y/N)

Most of these factors are obvious, as this is a Defense Test, and as the other mods and I have stated before, it’s imperative to last until Turn 5 with enough health leftover. What I am looking for in this analysis is something more specific.

Let’s look at four examples that I’ve sorted in Remaining HP order:

This was the highest score captured that did a total damage of 82220 against the enemy, and took 25097 points of damage. The Remaining HP was approximately 65% of the Total HP

This attempt had the second highest Remaining HP value, but because it ended on Turn 4, the score dropped as expected. It did 74872 damage against the enemy, and took 24194 points of damage. The Remaining HP was approximately 66% of the Total HP

Out of the three SSS scores here, this was the lowest SSS score, with approximately 62% of the Total HP leftover. This test caused 86117 in damage and took 26820 points of damage.

Finally, this attempt was the only one of these four that ended on the final attack of turn 5. That explains the dip in the Remaining HP, only retaining approximately 58% of the Total HP. It did more damage than the first example above, but less damage than the third example (85612). It also received the highest enemy damage (29802)

These help show the variability of the results.

Why point these out? Doesn’t it make sense that the more you last, the higher your remaining HP, the better your score?

Yes, but lets delve deeper－

In the Basic Tests, in general all you need is:

Overkill on Turn 3 or Turn 4

At least three duos

At least 80% in the battle gauge

I plan to find what the thresholds we need for a score of SSS on Defense Tests. Before I start throwing this into my statistical software, this is what I believed was needed by simply eyeballing the dataset:

Last until Turn 5

At most 30k in damage from enemy

At least 60% of health remaining

First things first, I imported the data into my statistical program and looked at distributions.

Sexy~

The distributions themselves don’t really give me the information I want, however. It just lets me take a look at what kind of distribution I might be working with. The Total Score and the Percent Health Left do tend to barely look like normal distributions, so that is a start.

Next, I created a model based on the factors that I’ve collected, with the Total Score as my response variable, the thing we’re looking for. I won’t go too far into statistical jargon, but using a stepwise model, I was able to remove a few of the factors that weren’t significant. Namely the Enemy Total HP and Number of [Neutral] Attacks. I had already discounted these two before I even ran the model, so I was pleased to see that my software thought the same.

The model of significant factors I ended up with were:

Total Damage Dealt

Total Enemy Damage Dealt

Number of Enemy [Neutral] Attacks

Second Turn 5 Attack (Y/N)

And a calculated column of the % of Health Remaining

I’m a visual person, so I made another chart based on these factors:

(Total Damage Dealt was the least significant of all the other factors, so I opted to look at it with the Total Enemy Damage. Number of Enemy [Neutral] Attacks will also be covered below.)

Just by the pretty colors and shapes alone, you can see that scores that reached 20k or above tended to be on the first attack of Turn 5, take less than 30k damage, and over 60% health remaining.

Hey, I’d say my eyeballing was good!!

Within this batch of attempts, only three of our SSS scores didn’t follow this pattern. Two of them ended on the second attack of Turn 5. The third one is a battle that mimicked the results of many of the other SSS tests before it, but took in about 3k more damage than the rest.

Doesn’t that mess with your prediction?

N-no! Don’t call me out like that! (>3<)/

The two that ended on the second attack still was within the margin of error for my prediction, taking no more than 32k in damage, and having approximately 57% of health left.

One other aspect to keep in mind, although it sounds obvious is minimize taking weak/neutral damage. This was not something I was looking at originally, but I found that there was a difference in score when we took 1 Neutral attack vs 2 or 3 Neutral attacks. (We took no Weak damage)

That third attempt that skewed my prediction finished the battle with approximately 59% of its Health remaining. Oo, so close. But based on the other attempts with similar Health, Damage Taken, etc, it should not have gotten a score of SSS. Yet it did. Why?

Because unlike the other battles that ended in a similar position, that battle only took one neutral attack from the enemy, instead of two or three. Out of the 10 SSS scores, 7 of them completed taking only one neutral attack, while 3 took two.

Based on this quick analysis, both visual inspection and effect screening, I have the hypothesis I presented at the beginning. Statisticians don’t like to deal in absolutes, so this will always be just a theory.

I hope this was at least interesting, I know it was a lot of numbers. I tried to avoid jargon and simplify most things, but there’s just so many interesting points to find when you’re going through so many of these battles!

As with all games, there is a bit of RNG that plays into it that I may have missed. Does it matter that Malleus buffed twice in one battle, but only once in another? Maybe. Do I want to go back through 125 battles to determine that? Absolutely not.

I’d close with saying that although I laid out what is most likely required, this does not mean that it’s not possible to get the SSS score in other ways. Finishing on the 4th turn with more HP remaining is quite possible. But in order to spread out and hone in on a more accurate threshold, there would need to be more occurrences of 4th turn SSS, and we were unable to do that during the Water Defense Test.

Perhaps next time! I look forward to updating my assumptions when I collect data from the All Defense Test~

-🐬

#Twisted Wonderland #twst #twst gameplay #twst strategy #twst test info #mod jeido

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tf2workbench · 3 years ago

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The robots won’t know what hit them

Mann vs. Machine, TF2′s horde-based game mode, can be both fiendishly hard and a whole lot of fun. With powerful upgrades available, most classes can take on new dimensions and support their team even more effectively.

That being said, MvM has a very strictly defined meta. What do I mean by that?

Well, the “metagame” is basically the popular consensus of what items/strategies/classes are best to use - and, by extension, which are not good. It’s called the “metagame” because it’s dependent on the mechanics of the game itself, but is basically formed by people thinking about and discussing how to play it.

Regular, player-on-player TF2 is designed so that all weapons and classes, ideally, have a place in the meta. There’s rarely a clear “best” loadout. MvM, however, is not designed at all like PvP gameplay; for starters, there’s a lot more enemies than there are players. This naturally means that some classes, and a lot of their weapons, fall by the wayside.

The Upgrade Station is one way of working to bring these classes/weapons back into the fold, allowing players to have fun in many different ways. For example, the Gas Passer can be upgraded to explode upon ignition, giving it serious damage output that the original weapon doesn’t have.

With this post, I intend to go over some of the least-used weapons (not classes; that’s another post entirely) in MvM, then propose potential upgrades that might give them some relevance. I say might; balance in MvM, especially given the unique upgrade system, is tricky at best without playtesting, and many of these will likely end up underpowered. I do want to give them variety, though, and at least let them have their own niche. Enjoy!

Direct Hit

The Direct Hit, as a weapon for precision assassinations, does pretty poorly against a horde of robots. You can get Rocket Specialist, which marginally increases its blast radius, but that’s not incredibly helpful next to the other launchers. With that in mind, I want to propose an upgrade: +1 shot restored on kill $200 Three levels

In addition, I want to cheapen the “+25% damage” upgrade from $400 to $300 for this specific weapon, and allow the Direct Hit to get the fourth level (it can currently only get three). This gives it a noticeable edge on low-cash missions and stops it from losing out to a fully-boosted stock rocket.

Axtinguisher The Pyro doesn’t really have a preferred melee weapon in MvM; it’s usually the Homewrecker or Powerjack. The Axtinguisher tends to see even less action because it’s a precise tool, not suited for a bunch of mechanical menaces. But what if... +2 seconds of critboost on kill $350 Two levels

So far only available to the Spy and Demoman, I think this would work wonders with the Axtinguisher. Note that the critboost is for all weapons, allowing you to roast robots with a critical flamethrower.

Tomislav In MvM, the Heavy assumes the role of a mobile sentry, plopping himself down and shooting until he’s dead or out of bullets. The Tomislav is distinctly unsuited to this role, since you rarely need to spin up and the fire rate penalty reduces DPS. A big change is in order. +15% movement speed while firing $300 Two levels

If you’re willing to pay for it (especially given upgrades like Rage and Destroy Projectiles), you can become much more mobile, able to avoid danger and reposition without stopping your onslaught of bullets. You can’t match the raw damage of the Brass Beast, but you have a certain amount of flexibility that it lacks. I do wonder: is this worth it? DPS tends to be everything in MvM, and many Heavies may never have to move anyway.

Short Circuit Due to the increased fire rate and shield, plus how easy giant robots are to hit, the Wrangler reigns supreme in MvM. But the Short Circuit deserves a chance too - it’s the only gamemode where shutting down enemy projectiles doesn’t make anyone angry, after all. For that purpose: -10 metal cost $150 Three levels

Allowing you to work wonders against, say, giant spamming Demomen. It does end up being a bit situational, though, since it has next-to-no utility against bullet-users. It might also prove too powerful in some situations, letting your sentry take down bosses like Major Crits while remaining virtually unscratched. Maybe I should just leave this one alone...

These are pretty big changes, and I acknowledge that they probably fall all over the spectrum of under- or over-powered. In honesty, this post is more for entertainment than anything; it would take much, much more work than I’m putting in here to make all weapons viable in MvM. Heck, it’s hard enough in the base game.

Doesn’t mean I won’t try, though. Did you enjoy this? What thoughts do you have about upgrades? Do you even play MvM?

#tf2workbench #tf2 #team fortress 2 #mann vs machine #mvm

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grailfinders · 4 years ago

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Fate and Phantasms #71: Diarmuid Ua Duibhne

Today on Fate and Phantasms, we’re making the second Celtic dual-wielding magical spearperson in a row, Diarmuid Ua Duibhne! Use Gae Dearg to counteract magical forces, Gae Buidhe to curse your opponents, and your Beauty Spot to get yourself into plenty of trouble.

Check out the full build below the cut, or the character sheet over here!

Race and Background

Diarmuid is still a full Human, and we’re using the variant ruleset so we don’t have to wait as long to magic and melee like Scathach. This gives him +1 Strength and +1 Intelligence, Survival Proficiency, and the Dual Wielder feat. That last bit gives him +1 AC while dual wielding, the ability to dual wield non-light weapons, and the ability to draw and stow two weapons at once.

Being a knight of Fianna makes you a Knight of the Order, giving Persuasion and Nature proficiency.

Stats

Make sure your Strength is high, you’re good at poking people. Second is your Dexterity; at best, you’re wearing light armor, and not dying is nice. After that is Intelligence; you’re pretty smart when it comes to fighting. Your Constitution is next, because not dying is still nice. Wisdom is a bit low, but we have proficiency in the necessary skills to be a good hunter anyway. (Also, the one time they mention hunting in your profile is your death, so... not a good track record.) Finally, dump Charisma. You’re magically charming-you tend to get the short end of the stick otherwise. Or the pointy end.

Class Levels

1. Diarmuid’s a Fighter, giving you a Fighting Style. Two-weapon Fighting lets you add your strength modifier to offhand attacks as well as normal attacks. You also learn how to use your Second Wind to regain 1d10+ your level in HP as a bonus action once per short rest. It won’t help if you’re magically forced to kill yourself, but then again not much will.

You’re also proficient in Strength and Constitution saves, as well as two skills; Athletics and Perception.

2. With your Action Surge, you can tack on an extra action to a turn once per short rest. Lure an enemy into a false sense of security by spending an action doing cool spear tricks, then stab them anyway. Works every time.

3. Third level fighters get a Martial Archetype, and the Eldritch Knight will help you bring a bit of magic into your martial prowess. When you become an Eldritch Knight, you get spells you can cast using intelligence. You also gain a Weapon Bond, an hour long ritual that can be completed over short rests to bond a weapon to your soul. After bonding, you can’t be disarmed of that weapon until you’re incapacitated, and you can use your bonus action to summon it from anywhere in the same plane as you. You can have up to two weapons bonded at once, which is convenient for you.

Your spell list is rather restrictive, so expect a lot of Things You Could Arguably Do Without Magic to pad things out. True Strike, Alarm, and Snare fit into that category. You also get your Beauty Spot at this level, with the spells Friends and Charm Person.

4. Use your first Ability Score Improvement to become a War Caster. This gives you advantage on concentration saves, the ability to cast spells as attacks of opportunity, and cast somatic spells while holding weapons in both hands. Congratulations, True Strike is marginally less useless now! At least it’s not taking up an action.

For your spell this level, Shield lets you block incoming attacks with some fancy spear spinning, adding 5 to your AC until your next turn and instantly blocking any magic missiles coming your way.

5. Fifth level fighters get an Extra Attack on their actions, meaning you can attack twice with an action, thrice with your bonus action, and five times with your action surge.

6. Use your next ASI to bump up your Strength for better poking.

7. Seventh level Eldritch Knights learn some War Magic; when you use your action to cast a cantrip, you can use your bonus action for a weapon attack.

To add some spice to Gae Buidhe’s attacks, grab Melf’s Acid Arrow to deal some acid damage over time.

8. Another ASI; use this one to improve your Intelligence for stronger spell attacks and saves.

Speaking of spells, grab Create Bonfire for another Thing You Could Arguably Do Without Magic (Making A Campfire), and Suggestion to strengthen your Beauty Spot.

9. At ninth level you become Indomitable, letting you reroll a failed saving throw once per long rest. Those command seal saves are pretty high, save this for that.

10. Tenth level Eldritch Knights get an Eldritch Strike; hitting a creature with a weapon attack imposes disadvantage on their saves against one of your spells until the end of your next turn.

Speaking of spells, Arcane Lock is another Thing You Could Do Without Magic (Owning A Lock), and Chill Touch prevents its target from healing if it hits. Hit them with this and follow up with Gae Buidhe, and it’s almost as good as the original.

11. Use your extra Extra Attack to hit people three times in one action. Now that’s some fancy spearwork!

For your spell, Continual Flame gives you another fire-making spell, if you’re more concerned with portability and light than heat and damage. Sometimes hunts happen at night, and you’re not an elf.

12. Use your next ASI to boost your Intelligence even further for even stronger charms and curses.

13. Thirteenth level fighters get another Indomitable use, but more importantly you get third level spells! Now you can start to get Gae Dearg online with Dispel Magic, allowing you to destroy magical effects around you.

14. Use this ASI to bump up your Constitution for more health, then grab Bestow Curse for your any-school spell. I know Gae Buidhe isn’t exactly cursed in the way curses work in D&D, but when in Rome...

15. You learn an Arcane Charge, letting you teleport up to 30′ away when using your Action Surge. You can use this before or after the extra action, so it can be used to escape or close the gap.

16. Use this ASI to maximize your Strength for the most pain and accuracy. Also, grab Counterspell to maximize your anti-magic skills. If someone’s casting a spell, just lob Gae Dearg at them, that’ll make them drop concentration real quick.

17. Seventeenth level fighters get another use of Action Surge and Indomitable per their respective rests, just keep in mind you can use multiple charges on the same turn or save.

18. Your final Eldritch Knight goody is Improved War Magic. Now you can make a weapon attack as a bonus action after any spell, not just cantrips.

19. Use your last ASI to bump up your Dexterity for more not getting hit. Speaking of spells, Mordenkainen’s Private Sanctum allows you to stab Gae Dearg into the ground and counteract divination and teleportation spells in a 100′ cube around it. Does this spell have a tenuous connection to your spears’ abilities? Yes, but it’s a lot closer than any other 4th level spell you can grab.

20. Your capstone level gives you yet another Extra Attack, meaning you can attack 4 times as an action, 8 times with an Action Surge, and 9 times with an Action Surge and Bonus Action.

You also get your final spell; Charm Monster will allow your Beauty Spot to work on anything you could want it to, and probably a lot of things you don’t.

Pros:

Your knowledge of abjuration magic makes you a useful anti-magic character, and unlike certain casters you can survive a sneeze in your general direction.

You’re also pretty Charming, and your powerful concentration means you can see the spell through to the end easily.

Having both magical and martial skills means you’re adaptable on the battlefield.

Cons:

The Eldritch Knight class works best with Evocation and Abjuration spells, but you’re more focused on Enchantment and Necromancy. This magic/class mismatch means you waste a lot of spells learning things you’ll probably never use.

You have a very limited number of spell slots, especially for mid-level spells like Dispel Magic and Bestow Curse, so you’ll have to be careful with them.

You normally have pretty low charisma, so unless you magically charm the NPCs, you may have trouble getting along with them.

Next up: Fergalicious

#fgo #Fate Grand Order #D&D 5e #Diarmuid ua duibhne #Fate and Phantasms

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kayr0ss · 5 years ago

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Welcome Home

[LWA, Diakko, domestic, family, baby?, cute happy shit]

Akko and Diana are still settling into this new life, routine, and responsibility. But coming home to this...? It was the best thing that ever happened to them.

—–

Diana clicked at the button of her retractable pen, eyes moving rapidly from left to right and back again. She paused, humming softly to herself while she appraised yet another essay on how ‘the advent of big data and analytics is a turning point in the synthesis of magic and artificial intelligence technology. She scribbled her remarks on the paper’s margin:

‘Revise – provide suggested guidelines and security measures for magic-infused data-driven machinery.’

Now, it may come as a surprise to many, but Diana never really considered herself a traditionalist. In fact, her on-going tenure at Luna Nova’s higher-education learning center is heavily decorated with progressive and future-minded research and perspectives. This idea, however, simply sounded a little too much like… Croix—and she wasn’t going to pretend that kept her at ease. But Diana also believed that very few people fall far beyond redemption, and Prof. Croix’s appointment as the Head of the Magical Engineering Ethics Board was the perfect example of redemption if there ever was one.

‘As we’ve learned historically, aggressive technological progress should be done under the guiding hand of ethics and humanitarian agenda,” she jotted down. She spared a quick glance to the office clock her before diving back down into the paper.

05:17:PM

Still early, she thought to herself, I could probably finish this stack before going home and—

“Quarter-past-five!” she suddenly exclaimed, forgetting that her former working hours of until well-past-eight were no longer applicable. Recent events had turned her entire world… upside-down.

“Grading will have to wait until tomorrow,” she hurriedly—but meticulously, of course—tidied the papers into her drawer; the pile on the left for marked papers, and unmarked papers on the right. Her keys jingled while she put her belongings back into her handbag, and the hurried clacking of her heels signaled the other professors of her early retreat back home.

Diana Cavendish rarely rolled her eyes, but by Jennifer the traffic was horrendous on the north-bound lane. Which she wouldn’t even be on, had she not forgotten the towels she was supposed to buy earlier in-between lectures. Akko reminded her thrice that morning (each time answered with an obedient, “yes, dear.”) Diana was once again reminded that one of the most surprising—and amusing—things she discovered since her marriage to the brunette witch was that between the two of them, Akko was ‘wife-zilla’.

06:13:PM

And there was extra-emphasis on the ‘zilla’ part lately. Traffic be damned, she was going to get those towels.

“Eep!”

The sharp whistling of a boiling kettle startled Akko out of the sports magazine she was so deeply engrossed it. Shit shit shit—she clumsily shut the glossy pages closed, darting towards the kitchen and—kami-sama, why did Diana think it was a good idea to have doors everywhere? “Stupid door,” she groaned, anxious to silence the whistling lest it disturb their special guest.

She lunged towards the stove, snapping the burner knob closed. “I could have done that with magic,” she flicked herself on the forehead, old habits from a magic-less childhood kicking in during the oddest moments. She blinked, scanning the kitchen counter for a small box before realizing that she left it back at the living room. “I’m almost as bad at this as I was at transmutation spells!”

About five minutes later, she was jogging back towards the dining area balancing a warmed tumbler in one hand, and several plastic utensils in another. She narrowly avoided tripping over the carpet (“Fuck!”), and was unfortunate enough to hit her shin across the low coffee-table, warranting an impressive parade of crisp, native-to-Japan curses. Thank Kami-sama it was Friday, she thought with relief. Diana would be taking over evening household duties by Monday and she damn well needed a break; even if a break meant more hours working.

She tipped the warmed tumbler over and let a few drops of its content spatter at the back of her hand.

06:37:PM

It was still too warm but should be just fine by dinner time.

[Capitalism is a predator, but I’m nearly home.]

Diana hit ‘send’, letting her wife know that she was around 2 blocks away while waiting for the last stoplight to turn green.

[As long as u got the towels lol. Tnx, luv u :-*]

Diana smiled at Akko’s reply, turning her attention away from her phone screen when she saw the soft glow shift from red to green. Yes, she had the towels—and maybe a full set of Reuven-Eilhart designer night pajamas. Or three.

She also brought home new ‘friends’—she saw that the store had recently released a set of ‘We There Bears’ themed products. Diana remembered Akko raving about them; they were apparently quite the in-thing as of late. She was immediately drawn to the pure-white polar bear with an interestingly unreadable expression. “That un’s ‘Nice Bear’,” the clerk supplied. “But if y’gonna get ‘im, you gotta get the whole gang else he’d be lonely.”

And so she did—because if Diana ever did anything she never did it half-way done. Frizzly Bear and Fanda sat snugly beside him in the backseat.

The blonde witch pulled up into their driveway, sorting out her belongings before stepping out to unload her shopping bags from the back. She opened the door and couldn’t help but laugh at herself.

“What has become of me,” she smiled, wondering how to bring three bears and several frilly-looking things into their house without painting herself as silly.

06:53:PM

Warm, yellow light flooded through the dining room curtains, and the familiar sound of their car alerted Akko to Diana’s arrival.

“She’s actually home on time,” she remarked to a little fellow seated at the end of their dining table, pulling on an exaggerated expression of being impressed. But Diana’s arrival always makes her smile, so she walks towards the front door so she can giver he wife a hand and—

She paused, taking a strong sniff of something which was coming out of the kitchen.

“Oh, no.”

The pizza! There was pizza burning in the oven! She bolted back towards the kitchen for some damage control, relieved to find that the pizza was only beginning to blacken at the crusts—easily salvageable.

“Mou, Diana’s gonna give me an earful,” she whined in defeat. She could hear the sound of their door unlocking, followed by footsteps through their dining area and the rustle of shopping bags being unloaded.

To her surprise, Diana had no drop of sternness in her voice. “I’ve missed you,” she cooed.

Akko broke into a grin, turning to face Diana. “Missed you to—”

She bit back her words, fascinated at the sight of her wife, looking weary from a long day, cradling their beloved Sara with all the fascination in the world. Their daughter giggled up to her mother, hands reaching for her face, prodding at Diana’s nose (which scrunched up adorably) and pulling at her platinum curls before squealing in delight.

“I may have missed you, as well.” Diana teased, tossing a smile to Akko’s direction.

“That’s hardly fair!” Akko tried to pout, walking towards the two people she loved most in the world.

Diana nuzzled against Sara’s forehead, running her fingers softly over the thin patch of light-brown hair beginning to grow longer. Sara perked up immediately when Akko came into her field of vision.

“I think she likes me better,” Akko whispered before kissing Diana’s shoulder. She wrapped an arm around the pair and tickled at Sara’s nose.

“Not a chance.” Diana leaned her head against Akko’s, watching as Sara grabbed onto Akko’s finger with a chubby little hand.

“Did you buy her another hundred sets of pajamas?” Akko raised an eyebrow.

“Only three,” Diana tried to hide her defensiveness. “And... several room accessories?”

Akko laughed, “pretty soon we’re going to run out of space in her room. This little lady has got you wrapped around her finger!”

There was no use denying it, so Diana simply rolled her eyes.

“Come here,” Akko smiled. “Welcome home.” She moved up to her tiptoes, and Diana turned her head to meet the brunette half-way for a small kiss. She appreciated the way Akko’s embraced tightened around her torso and warmed her chest; the way it made her family feel so... whole.

Akko pulled back, but Diana chased after her to steal another quick kiss, amused at the way Akko would still blush whenever she did that.

“So,” Diana gave her wife a look, “burnt pizza for dinner?”

“Mou, Sara! Your mother is such a bully!”

A/N: Woohoo finally churned another one out! I’m feeling a bit sick, and it’s early in the morning, so hopefully there aren’t that many typos/errors. Anyway I’m doing fine, hope you all are too! I’ve been re-reading Appointments over and over so I can get a feel of the writing style and flow I used to have for it and finally finish the next chapter. I do feel out of touch from how I was back in 2018; so I really need to do a lot of fanfic reading. You guys have any suggestions?

ALSO - meet Sara! Her name means vivid blossoms; it’s Japanese but also western-sounding so win-win for both moms. A homage to ‘Botany’, with the flowers and everything. She was originally meant to be Leia, because I’m a big Star Wars fan, but hey! I saw Sara and instantly thought it was the best fit. Hope you enjoyed. :) [Also, I’ve noticed I tend to switch between past / present tense a lot and I’ll be working to actively fix that moving forward!]

#Diakko #Dianakko #Diana x Akko #diana cavendish #atsuko kagari #kagari atsuko #Akko Kagari #Akko #LWA #Little Witch Academia #Fanfic #Yuri #Femmeslash #Fluff #Family #cute #wholesome #family fic

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sushifrost31-blog · 4 years ago

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Why Get Electric Roller Blinds?

Awnings & Accessories.

#toc background: #f9f9f9;border: 1px solid #aaa;display: table;margin-bottom: 1em;padding: 1em;width: 350px; .toctitle font-weight: 700;text-align: center;

Content

Delivery

Are Hillarys Blinds Expensive? That Relies On The Representative

Are Hillarys Blinds Expensive?

Made To Gauge, Made Simple.

Outside Garden Water Resistant Awning Canopy Patio Cover Uv Color Awning *.

Blinds Direct Clearguard.

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Distribution

You can additionally utilize a light or non-abrasive cleansing service to fight allergens and also microorganisms. A stick is made use of to rotate the gliding blinds to an open position or relocate them away of the door wall surface, so there are no cables or chains to tangle with. A few individuals discovered that the louvers embed the track a little as they press the blinds right into placement, but overall individuals really feel that these blinds behave looking and also obstruct the sunlight reasonably well.

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Are Hillarys Blinds Expensive? That Relies On The Agent

Rest well with less light sneaking in thanks to the Veneta Standard 2-inch Faux Wood Blinds. These blinds are our leading choice for bed rooms, thanks to their routeless slate style. We like these cordless blinds with 2-inch plastic slats for their easy procedure. Pull hier aanmelden down or press them up with a smooth device that doesn't call for hanging cables that can come to be twisted. One point to recognize is that these blinds can't be shortened, so purchase the supply dimension that closest matches the length of your home window.

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Are Hillarys Blinds Expensive?

Note that the cordless option adds a premium to the rate, however it might be worth it if you want the cleanest appearance or are stressed over youngsters or pet dogs getting twisted in the cable. Individuals have discovered this to use one of the most privacy and to be one of the most reliable at blocking light seepage. Levolor is a leader in window treatments, as well as the ingenious NuWood line reveals that the firm understands what homeowners want in blinds. Made from a surprisingly practical polymer, the NuWood blinds simulate the look as well as feel of genuine wood but combine it with the durability of vinyl blinds.

Why are blind people's eyes GREY?

Blind people who remain their original eye color are very common. For people born with blindness caused by corneal opacity, their eye color may be white or grey. If a person go blind for cataracts, his eyes may be blocked with milky fibrin which cause their eyes to turn grey.

Made To Determine, Made Simple.

Bed linen sheers are best coupled with roman blinds to mount the sight.

For a real cosy, layered result roman blinds offer a suitable remedy.

When blinds are layered underneath curtains, Volume is important in changing the look and feeling of the room and also this is created.

They can be large, distinctive or adhered with a blockout material.

Are day and night blinds easy to clean?

Cleaning with soapy water should be fine, but dry it immediately afterwards with a towel. While zonwering Haarlem benefit from a quick once-over with a vacuum, we would not advise vacuuming Day and Night blinds.

Gliding doors offer easy accessibility to the great outdoors and also a stunning view, however upright blinds will offer you the option for privacy and also can block undesirable sunlight and also heat from filtering system in. Hampton Bay Vertical Blinds are a popular choice for gliding doors.

The specialized composition and also texture of these blinds enable a greater variety of discolorations as well as finishes, including sandblasted and also exceptional appearances. Combine the classic look of timber blinds with the resilience of PVC blinds with the Levolor NuWood 2-inch Faux Timber Blinds. The innovative appearance and also easy care of these blinds make them our leading selection for blinds in any type of area.

To obtain a made to determine blind fitted at you're window Hillarys Blinds provide a quite fair rate. It should take you around mins (for blinds/shades needing 3-4 brackets). The even more braces you need to gauge, the longer it requires to mount your color. If installing a window blind sounds like the last point you intend to be doing with your Saturday morning, after that you could constantly hire a professional fitter or handyman to do the effort for you. If you are on a tight budget after that this might not be a choice offered to you, but just to provide you an idea of cost you might probably get a blind installed for around ₤ 85.

Overall decorative items, like significant steel holdings attached to the wall or tiebacks with tassels can look uncomfortable against all-natural tones like wood. If you're opting for prints, matching curtains as well as blinds with each other looks ideal when a solid colour is picked for one and also a print is chosen for the other. Combining prints on both the curtains and blinds can look also overpowering in a space, particularly if the area is tiny or based on a great deal of prints currently. A suitable mix if you're opting for prints, is blinds in a solitary colour, coupled with patterned curtains that include the colour on the blind.

Is it OK to look at the sun with eyes closed?

The short answer is if you squeeze your eyes shut very tight and then face the Sun, that should be enough to protect your eyes from damage. You should never look directly at the Sun, with or without sunglasses, even during a solar eclipse, because that can cause a lot of damage to the eyes.

Outdoor Garden Water Resistant Awning Canopy Patio Area Cover Uv Color Awning *.

At Blinds Hut, in particular, vertical blinds retail between 40$ to 90$. Unlike genuine timber, artificial wood blinds can be cleansed with a light spray of water or a damp rag. This quicken the procedure and also allows for an extra comprehensive cleaning.

Nonetheless these blinds are conveniently trimmed as much as two inches on either side of the slats if you need to readjust the size. Readily available in either a off-white or white shade to blend right into a variety of color design, these plastic blinds are fade-resistant and cleanable. Despite the bottom bargain, these blinds have a cordless style that is more secure for pet dogs and kids.

Blinds Direct Clearguard.

Among one of the most amazing additions to your device-activated house is mechanized drapes and also blinds. You can trigger these advanced home window treatments by means of remote control, smartphone or even Alexa as well as Google tools. Rattan as well as woven tones tend to be see-through, depending upon their weave. Mounting drapes over your tones adds personal privacy as well as soft qualities if you don't want to add a liner (which blocks light totally and also is noticeable from your residence's outside). The start of a new decade indicates it's the perfect time to hang a new collection of drapes or give your home windows a renovation.

What happens if you stare at the sun for 5 minutes?

When you stare directly at the sun—or other types of bright light such as a welding torch—ultraviolet light floods your retina, literally burning the exposed tissue. Short-term damage can include sunburn of the cornea—known as solar keratitis. This occurs when UV light literally burns a hole in the retinal tissues.

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douchebagbrainwaves · 5 years ago

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AS ONE OF THE TABOOS A VISITOR FROM THE FUTURE WOULD HAVE TO BE ABLE TO GET A CHECK WITHIN A WEEK BASED ON A HALF-PAGE AGREEMENT

You would not believe the amount of stock to give him. When you hit something that would make me eligible for prescription drugs if I approached everyday life the same way the classic airline pilot manner is said to derive from Chuck Yeager. But in fact it was the basis of Amsterdam's prosperity 400 years ago. Tip: for extra impressiveness, use Greek variables. Which is to say that it's heretical. The right tools can help us avoid this danger. And as you go down the food chain the VCs get rapidly dumber.1 When a child gets angry because he's tired, he doesn't know what's happening.

A silicon valley has to be powerful enough to enforce a taboo. Related fields are where you go looking for trouble. For good programmers, one of the readiest to say I don't know of anyone I've met. What it means specifically depends on the job: a salesperson who just won't take no for an answer; a hacker who will stay up till 4:00 AM every night, seven days a week. Politicians are caught between a rock and a hard place here, however: make the capital gains rate low and be accused of creating tax breaks for the rich, or make it high and starve growing companies of investment capital. The influence of fashion is not nearly so great in hacking as it is in painting. It's like light from a distant star. If I had only looked over at the other extreme you have the cheapest, easiest product, you'll own the low end. Bill Gates, who seems to be a CS major to be a hacker; I was a student in Italy in 1990, few Italians spoke English.

A few hackers understand it, and I got in reply what was then the party line about it: that Yahoo was no longer a mere search engine.2 This is their way of weighing you. Forty-two years later you'll be making $4. Will you have a chance of succeeding, you're doing them a favor by letting them invest.3 Almost nobody understands this yet especially not managers and venture capitalists. You're better off starting with a blank slate in the form of a small town. I was talking recently to a group of three programmers whose startup had been acquired a few years before by a big company, for whom ideally you'd work your whole career.

Now how are you doing compared to the rapacious founder's $2 million. This works in America, but it feels young because it's full of rich people.4 The way to do that is to implement it. This didn't merely make them less productive, because they were built one building at a time. So hackers start original, and get original. Should you take it? Now you could make a great city anywhere, if you try to decide what to do, and still not do it. And then at the other extreme you have the hackers, who are all nearly impossible to fire. So what makes a place good to them? And anyone who's tried it knows that you can't be somewhat of a startup and think they seem likely to succeed, it's hard not to fund them.5

Even other hackers have a hard time doing that. This essay is derived from a guest lecture at Harvard, which incorporated an earlier talk at Northeastern. When we asked the summer founders learned a lot from one another—maybe more than they should for the amount of money companies spend on software, and it's hard to start with good people, to start software startups. Even a lot of things e. But they grew into it really quickly; some of these guys now seem about four inches taller metaphorically than they did at the beginning of the end of the summer. Checks instituted by governments can cause much worse problems than merely overpaying. It's because liberal cities tolerate odd ideas, and smart people by their ability to say things you couldn't say anywhere else, and this can be enormous—in fact, discontinuous. Are People Really Scared of Prefix Syntax?6 If there is one message I'd like to get across about startups, that's it.

7% of the upside, while an employer gets nearly all of it.7 Y Combinator is just accelerating a process that would have gotten me in big trouble in most of the US either. Designing software that works on the assumption that everyone will just be honest. The mathematicians don't seem bothered by this. In hacking, this can literally mean saving up bugs.8 Otherwise I just worked. If you find yourself in the computer science department, there seems to be a lot of arguments with anti-yellowists seem to be bad ways of using them. Copernicus was a canon of a cathedral, and dedicated his book to the pope. In every period of history, the answer is almost certainly no. In it he said he worried that he was fundamentally soft-hearted and tended to give away too much for free. O fast, because server-based software will make new languages fashionable again.

It might dilute the value of safe jobs. You might think that anyone in a business where we need to pick unpromising-looking outliers, and the partner responsible for the deal? Gradually the details get filled in. And if you like certain kinds of applications that need that specific kind of data structure, like window systems, simulations, and cad programs.9 It would be too easy for clients to fire them.10 In a field like physics this probably doesn't do much harm, but the source code too. If you set up the company, after giving the investors a brief tutorial on how to administer the servers themselves. We did.

Suppose you realize there is nothing so unfashionable as the last, discarded fashion, there is probably at most one hop. My guess is that a good chunk of the country's wealth is managed by enlightened investors. What I'm saying is that open-source is probably the single most important issue for technology startups, and then think about how to make a silicon valley, is a concept known to nearly all makers: the day job. I think it's better to follow the opposite policy.11 Startups are marginal.12 They just smelled wrong. At the very least we want options. Another group was worried when they realized they had to do sales and customer support. Yahoo's market cap then was already in the billions, and they were still worrying about wasting a few gigs of disk space. This should be the m. What groups are powerful but nervous, and what ideas would they like to suppress? In one culture x is ok, and in most of Europe it's not.

Notes

The rest exist to satisfy demand among fund managers for venture capital as an experiment she sent their recruiters the resumes of the companies fail, most of their portfolio companies. When an investor in!

The person who wins. Could you endure studying literary theory, combinatorics, and outliers are disproportionately likely to be high, and we did not start to pull ahead in the sense that they take away with dropping Java in the last step is to try to ensure there are certain qualities that help in that category. I was as bad an employee as this. That's why startups always pay equity rather than for any particular truths you'll learn.

You leave it to colleagues.

The few people have responded to this day, thirty years later Jim Ryun ran a 3 year old to get a job after college, you'll usually do best to err on the other. I had no idea whether this would be unfortunate.

These were the seven liberal arts. At first I didn't like it if you agree prep schools do, and graph theory. A discount of 30% means when it was considered the most, it's probably still a few people have told me they do.

We fixed both problems immediately. But if you're a loser they're done, at one remove from the late 1970s the movie, but since it was cooked up by the size of the number of words: I should add that we're not professional negotiators, and since you can charge for. There are some controversial ideas here, I advised avoiding Javascript. Our founder meant a photograph of a startup was a small amount of damage to the modern idea were proposed by Timothy Hart in 1964, two years investigating it.

If you're a YC startup you can do it now. This is almost pure discovery. 107.

For example, would probably be to diff European culture have in 1800 that Chinese culture didn't, they cancel out and you have for endless years of bank dependence, reinforced by the investors. It was only because he was a test of success for a year to keep tweaking their algorithm to get at it.

Though you should never sell i.

The existence of people we need to. Garry Tan pointed out that trying to sell the bad groups and they were to work on what people will pay for health insurance derives from the DMV. Since they don't yet have any of the company goes public. It should be your compass.

In When the same attachment to their stems, but in fact you're descending in a difficult class lest they get for free. But they've been trained.

After Greylock booted founder Philip Greenspun out of school.

Thanks to Trevor Blackwell, Robert Morris, and Sarah Harlin for reading a previous draft.

#automatically generated text #Markov chains #Paul Graham #Python #Patrick Mooney #Really #startups #Harvard #anyone #attachment #Blackwell #book #sup #reply #essay

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daggerzine · 6 years ago

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Tony Potts of The Monochrome Set gives us the details! (interview by Steve Michener)

I started writing a weekly post on Facebook about two years ago, wherein I would pick a song from the extensive catalog of The Monochrome Set and write a few words, trying to hep people to their fantastic music. It became a fun, online conversation with friends and fans and the band would sometimes join in, adding to the story or correcting my (frequent) historical errors. I was presenting myself as a TMS scholar when I was really just a doofus with a love for the music. The FB feature eventually led to my volunteering to drive the band on the West Coast swing of their recent US tour, which was a total blast.

Recently, I came up with the idea of interviewing various members of the band and when I initially hit upon this plan, the first person I thought of was Tony Potts, their early ‘5th member.' Tony added another dimension to the band’s early shows by projecting films onto screens (and sometimes the band), helping to differentiate the band in the crowded post-punk music scene of the late 70s/early 80s England. I never personally saw any early TMS shows so I missed out on his contributions until last year when I attended the TMS 40th anniversary shows in London and got to experience his visuals along with the music (albeit from a laptop now instead of a Super 8 film). I’ve always been intrigued by his role with the group and he was nice enough to answer some of my email questions about the early days of the band, his art, and, of course, his favorite TMS song. Tony’s Facebook page is one of the most entertaining around; he doesn’t hold back much, whether it’s about his cancer diagnosis, politics, or the state of the Great Western Railroad. TMSF and now Dagger Zine present the Weird, Wild and Wonderful World of Tony Potts!

That’s Tony far right

Q: How did you come to be involved with the Monochrome Set? What drew you to them and them to you?

Ah, now there are two answers to this question. The first is terse and accurate, although less interesting than the second. Well, I knew John, J.D. Haney. That's the terse answer. However, in the interests of interest, and name-dropping, we have to travel back to about 1974. The story illustrates I think, how our lives are built upon great swaths of happenstance.

While studying on my pre-degree arts foundation I became close friends with Edwin, later Savage Pencil, who later still formed The Art Attacks. After some itinerant drummers, including Ricky Slaughter of The Motors, and Robert Gotobed of Wire, JD became the Art Attacks drummer. Now, Edwin didn't know him, so I can only guess, at this great distance, that I put his name forward. But again, we must spool back in time. How did I know John? After Edwin left for London, and still at my provincial art school, I became good friends with two fellow student artists like myself, Andy Palmer and Joy Haney. They both became founder members of Crass, under the names N A Palmer and Joy De Vivre, and are now exceptionally good fine artists.

It was through my friendship with Joy that I meet her brother, the aforementioned JD, when he came down from university in the summer of '76. We hung out with his college chum, Jean-Marie Carroll, later to join The Members, and discussed narrow neckties and casual trousers. Then Joy, Andy, and I went off to the Greek islands for the summer, before returning to London to take up our degree course at Chelsea School of Art.

Thus it was, with us all now in London, that I believe I introduced JD to The Art Attacks, with whom I worked until their demise, at which point JD took up with TMS. Due to mutual creative interests in art, I was invited to display my films at their gigs. That was late '78, with my first gig with the band being at Acklam Hall, Notting Hill, on 22nd February 1979. Thereafter we fell together and I started to make films specifically for the live shows. It’s worth pointing out that the TMS was not formed in an art school, or by art students. It is lazy journalism that perpetuates the Art School band epithet. Both Bid, the main song writing power behind the longevity of the band, and the other key lyricist, JD Haney, have never been anywhere near an art school.

Q: What were your films like? Who were your art-school influences at the time? What were you doing with the Art Attacks?

I was studying fine art painting, and painting was my main interest. Although I loved films, I never expected to move in that direction. As a painter, I was a devotee of the Russian Constructivists like Tatlin, but mostly the geometric forms of El Lissitzky, and the Suprematist Kazimir Malevich - best known for Black Square and White On White. My paintings were an amalgam of geometric forms in the vein of Lissitzky on grounds inspired by Malevich's painterly surfaces. With the rise of the Punk movement in London, I somewhat changed direction, moving into filmmaking that had a quasi-narrative style, intended to be more emotional and poetic. Although driven by what was happening in music during ‘76/'77/'78, ironically, my films couldn't be any less punk if I tried. Well, not to punks anyway. These days I regret that I never resuscitated my painting practice.

At the time of the Acklam Hall gig, I had made one large scale Super8, and two 16mm works. I think it must have been 'Strange Meeting', which in part was about aliens and The Red Army Faction murders, which we showed at that gig, but as a support. I had previously made some other 8mm films, and I might have used them during the band, but I can't recall. However, I now have vague memories of projecting B & W film over the whole stage and band. With The Art Attacks, I didn't have a creative role, I just supported the band in rehearsal and at gigs with Paul Humphries their manager, and the initial manager of TMS. Paul, JD and I all shared the same squat in Brailsford Road, Brixton. So, with TMS I had something more creative to do.

Q: For those of us who weren't able to see those shows, describe for us what you were doing with the films during the shows. How were the films received by the audience?

As I said, initially I used the films that I had made in another context, and they were added to the performance to create an overall ambiance, a statement of presentation that was not about a band energetically leaping about on stage, as was the order of the day. Soon I started to make Super8 material specifically for TMS performances. This included the scratched and bleached footage for 'Lester Leaps In', or images filmed on the road, like the Berlin footage used for ‘Viva Death Row’, or staged material of the band getting up to also sorts of antics, like the beach ball larks and bits of animations I would make with no specific aim. In the early days, I made two roller blind screens in long boxes, [we took them on the first two US tours] with one on either side of the stage as space allowed, with film projected onto them so the band members were often in silhouette, although it bled onto them also. The stage was very dark, lit by blue footlights, which I made. I think Mark Perry of Sniffing Glue/Alternative TV said something like it was the most brilliantly depressing thing he had seen. That was always the irony at that time, the music was pert and poppy and uplifting, but the show wasn't. What a laugh, we all thought.

The shows became increasingly more elaborate with more screens, more projectors and a theatrical lighting rig. At this time we were using Ground Control, Bowie's original PA, run by a lovely guy called Robin Mayhew. Using the theatre lights allowed me to focus and shape controlled beams of light exactly where I wanted them. For example, I could just illuminate Bid's face or other small areas with geometric shapes, while leaving the stage largely unlit. Then the film screens could glow and flicker in the dark. The lads tended not to move a great deal. A tradition assiduously upheld by Mr. Warren.

As to reception, well some people liked it, and others couldn't see the point. I think it mostly worked as a spectacle, an integrated whole, a total experience, but for those just into the music, it was probably irrelevant. I mean, they are a great band, so nobody missed me when I didn't set up, like at the M80. That stage was toooo big, man.

Bid and Tony

Q; As the 'Fifth Member' whose focus seemed to have been on the live performances, how did you fit in with the band in the recording studio?

Yes, my key role was the live performance; anything else was a bonus for me. I was at all recordings from the second Rough Trade single to the end of the second album, as an enthusiastic supporter and admirer. Of course, I chipped in with the odd suggestion or noise and was probably ignored where and when necessary. Being musically incompetent, my timing is off by a good margin so I'm not sure my handclaps ever made a final mix. You can hear me on TWWWWofTP. I've got quite a pleasant singing voice, also, just not in public. Bid once marked out the chord changes for Ici Les Enfants on a plastic organ I had, to fill out the live sound, but after the first chord change, I was lost and bewildered.

Q: You've done promotional videos for the band. Can you talk about a few of those projects? Do you have a favorite video?

The first promotional film I made was the one for Dindisc, and called Strange Boutique, not after the title of the first album as many think, but coincidentally, after the name of a pair of corduroy trousers! Actually, that may not be true. So, this was conceived as a short film, with two songs and a Rod Serling type piece to camera as a linking devise. Done on the very cheap. Unfortunately, there were syncing issues with some of the dialogue and the master got damaged, scratched, and I'm not sure if I still have the original film, or not. It's on our DVD as a complete piece as far as I remember, but it turns up on YouTube, usually cut down to either of the two songs LSD and Strange Boutique, without all the linking material.

We then waited a long time until I was commissioned by WEA to make the promo for 'Jacob's Ladder' with the release of 'The Lost Weekend' album. The deal was negotiated from a public phone box on Clapham Common tube station. It was somewhat compromised by cock-ups at WEA which meant I was forced to hand it over before it was fully edited to my satisfaction. I seem to have made a style out of technical imperfections; at least that's what I'm saying. At the time Top of the Pops had a video preview section, and a short clip of Jacob's Ladder was shown. That’s primetime TV, folks!

And then, of course, I was delighted when Bid asked me to make the official MaisieWorld video for ‘I Feel Fine’, which I was very pleased with. All these projects were very personal to me, not just the execution of a job, and the first two were part of my life at the time of making.

Q. The only footage I've seen of you actually playing with the band is the Old Grey Whistle Test TV spot. Was it common for you to join the band onstage?

Well, I was usually visible on stage, controlling the projectors, which needed constant manipulation, like a DJ scratching, changing speed and switching images, fading and mixing. Also, there might be some little set piece we had devised, which required me to do something. At one point, during the Ground Control days, I remember I had my own mic so I could interact with the stage, which didn't last that long. So, to some extent, I always had a relationship with the stage as both performer and technician. Once, when Lester Square had had enough, I did perform the encore, He's Frank, by incessantly plucking one string of his guitar. Pretty good, actually! Music and Maths very similar to my mind, no sooner do I believe that I have mastered the execution of some small calculation, but I soon discover that I haven't.

Don’t shake the ladder, Tony gettin’ down to work.

Q: Tell us about your film education and your career in film and video outside the band.

I made a living of sorts working commercially in film and video production, and teaching, but as I mentioned before, I actually trained in fine art. My art foundation took a very academic approach and involved copious hours of life drawing and other drawing classes, while being given time to develop one's own particular discipline and style.

I made one Super8 film based on geometric elements in my painting. I had made three other 8mm film before this. It wasn't until I was on my degree course that I started making more moving image work, but this stemmed from a fine art perspective, so I didn't ever have any film school type training. My own work I would categorise as poetic experimentalism, that is under the general umbrella of artist film and video. Just a reminder that you can catch up with lots more detail of everything I've said at my website, http://tonypottsloopform.altervista.org. Although it has all the history of the films and staging, as well as the making of Jacob's Ladder, it's rather old and not up-to-date. That site includes all the art projects I've worked on, the history of TMS film, and my own films. My creative life can be divided into three separate but overlapping strands. The first being, my personal practice as an artist/film maker, the second, my skills and knowledge deployed in the service of collective artworks and community arts projects, and those same skills employed commercially in film and video production and teaching.

Q: It's obvious from FB that you are a big film fan. Who are some of your favorite directors/favorite movies?

With a few exceptions, I'm not much interested in modern Hollywood, old Hollywood is better, and pre-Hays better still. My film tastes are somewhat esoteric for most folks. I prefer silent film, particularly that of the classic German period of the twenties, Lang, Murnau, Pabst, Dreyer. Then in the sixties, PP Pasolini, Robert Bresson, Akira Kurosawa, soviet era Tarkosky and Parajhanov, plus a host of even less well know eastern European directors like Miklos Jancso, Jan Nemec, or Frantisek Vlacil. Don't you wish you'd never asked?

Q. You live in Wales, pretty far away from the London of your youth. How did you end up there and what appeals to you living there?

Well, we split our time between London and Pembrokeshire at present, while my wife Rachael is still working. In a few years, we'll move out completely, I think. I can't relax in the city anymore. I need some more space to feel comfortable. I've had as much London as I can handle. Rachael is Welsh, although Pembrokeshire is known as little England beyond Wales, and we are fortunate to own her childhood home there.

Q. You were recently diagnosed with cancer and posted your experience on Facebook. How did you discover that you had cancer and how are you doing now?

Yes, that was unfortunate. The prostate gets larger as us men grow older and so puts a bit of pressure on the bladder, changing the way you take a pee, like urgency and frequency. So any chap of a certain age should cut along to a doctor if they have persistent symptoms of this type. Our neighbour in Wales insists on calling it prostrate cancer, but I refuse to take that lying down, and firmly pronounce it prostate, but to no avail. But seriously, although it's a slow-growing cancer, the sooner you act, the sooner you can get the appropriate treatment. I had to have surgery, but it's not necessary for everyone. As my cousin, who luck would have it is a cancer specialist said, do you want to be erect or dead? Haha, what a great choice!

Q: Since this is a TMSF, after all, can you pick a favorite song and say a few words about it?

My choice of song to end this pleasant excursion is 'The Devil Rides Out', from the 'Eligible Bachelors' album. By the time of recording this record JD had left the band and was living in NY, and I was also spending a great deal of time in that city also. I was still contributing to the occasional gig or short tour, but I certainly wasn't around when this album was recorded. Christ, what do you expect for a record made in Luton?

So it is the live performances of this song that I recall, since it was in the repertoire well ahead of it being recorded. Although I could say it of many other songs, the open chords of 'The Devil Rides Out' always gave me a buzz as I waited to play in whatever the film images were [I can't remember]. Even if the audience or critics found the films superfluous or unimportant, I usually enjoyed watching the way that a set of otherwise unrelated images somehow meshed and synchronised with the music and gave the illusion of a premeditated vision. Of course, it was premeditated in as much as I knew what pieces of film would be used for a particular song, but beyond that, there was a lot of slack in the system. With the various parameters of the live installation, having to follow the cue of the band and the hand manipulating the projectors [no computers], there were great possibilities that the extemporisation would result in entirely unique sets of images and sound on each occasion.

Well, I should say something about why I like the song. It's one of a number of Bid's more esoteric lyrical compositions. He had previously pushed the Latin boat out with Adeste Fideles [not everyone's favourite song title to pronounce], and my spell checker isn't too keen on the words, either. In this case, the bridging line is rendered in Latin, but with the exception of the 'Hails', this is written in the ancient language of Sanskrit. Or at least that is my understanding and belief. Whatever the lyrical origins are, this is a classic TMS arrangement, altogether thrilling, incomprehensible and mysterious, yet totally pop, totally accessible and it dumps from a very great height those chart-topping household names who have followed in their wake.

And of course, I can never resist a song that features a sleigh bell, The Devil Rides Out and The Stooges 'I Wanna Be Your Dog' being the two finest examples.

http://tonypottsloopform.altervista.org

www.themonochromeset.co.uk

www.tapeterecords.de

www.facebook.com/themonochromeset

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sirpoley · 7 years ago

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On the Wandering Monster, Part 3: Slaying CoDzilla

In part 1 of this series, I admitted to having fear and misunderstood Wandering Monsters in D&D for years, and resolved to find a way to make the system work.

In part 2, I proposed some methods, tested both in Into the Living Library and City of Eternal Rain, for tying procedural content generation into the overall narrative of your story.

Now, I'll talk about one of the benefits of wandering monsters—the end of the 15-minute adventuring day, and with it, CoDzilla.

"CoDzilla" is a 3.5-era bit of D&D slang that, for the uninitiated, means "Cleric or Druid-zilla." Clerics and Druids, even without much in the way of optimization, could be enormously powerful. Close competitors were Wizards, Sorcerers, and various non-core full casters. Starting from very low levels, these classes, through use of spellcasting, were able to single-handedly—often single-turnedly—win major encounters. Clerics and Druids were especially notorious, as in addition to a full complement of spells, they were no slouch at mundane fighting, had a host of miscellaneous abilities, and, in the case of the Druid, got the infamously-powerful Wild Shape ability and a pet grizzly bear. In contrast, a Fighter (who is maybe 25-50% better than the bear the Druid gets as icing) gets marginally better at hitting enemies with swords every level.

By 5th edition, the power imbalances between classes have been substantially narrowed, with non-casting classes getting various per-short-rest and per-day abilities that let them have some time in the spotlight. In my current 5th-edition campaign, I'm playing a Paladin, and, at 7th-level, don't feel particularly behind the party's Wizard and Cleric. Back in 3.x, I'd be lucky if I even got a turn in combat, and, with few skills or utility abilities, would pretty much fall asleep outside of battle. So to a certain extent, this fix is beating a dead horse, as changes to the rules have reduced the necessity for such a fix. Still, anecdotal accounts have suggested to me that the caster-warrior imbalance problem still lurks, especially at higher levels.

Solving this problem is where Wandering Monsters come in. Those of you playing Pathfinder and 3.x D&D should pay extra heed to this, but it's applicable to 5e as well.

Wandering Monsters Vs. CoDzilla

Encounters with Wandering Monsters have substantially lower stakes than pre-planned, climactic and narratively-key ones. Typically, the foes are easier and the tension is lower as victory is all-but assured. This means that characters have to choose between 'wasting' limited per-day abilities to seek a quick victory, or suffer additional damage by dragging out the fight by sticking with cantrips and regular attacks. The longer the battle, the more opportunities the monster has to get in a few hits before going down.

The devil with this decision is that, either way, casters lose and warriors win. A Paladin's basic attack is more accurate, reliable, and powerful than a wizard's cantrip, so if spellcasters withhold their 'special' attacks, non-casters take the spotlight. If the casters obliterate Wandering Monsters with high-level spells, then by the time they reach the 'real' fight (those being the pre-planned encounters, typically in dungeon rooms rather than hallways), they'll be relegated to cantrips while the fighters open up with their modest per-day abilities and their more efficient conventional attacks.

Martial classes do have some limited-use abilities, especially half-casters like Paladins, so they are pushed into a similar dilemma ("do I use Smite on the owlbear or save it for the true foe?") but the stakes are much lower, as their abilities are weaker and their conventional attacks more powerful than a true caster's. This means that even if the Paladins and other half-casters make the 'wrong' decision, they can typically make do regardless.

Now, the obvious flaw with this plan is that at any point the party can just fall back, rest, and come back in with a full complement of spells, right? This means that wearing the casters down through attrition is doomed from the start, because they can conveniently heal up to 100% with a single night's sleep. This is why adding Wandering Monsters all by itself isn't enough—we have to start enforcing other rules as well, such as…

No Long Rests in Dungeons

There's a secret to the long/short rest split of 5th edition D&D, and that's that not all classes benefit equally. Far and away, a short rest is more meaningful to a martial class than a spellcasting class, and vice-versa for long rests.

Most martial classes have powerful abilities that recover every short rest starting at level 2 or 3. For example, Fighters get Action Surge, Paladins get Channel Divinity, and Monks get Ki. Barbarians are a rare exception, as their key ability (Rage) is actually tied to long rests. Rangers have no useful abilities worth noting that recharge on short rests, long rests, or honestly at all, so there's no helping them. Spellcasters' main ability—spellcasting—universally require long rests to recover in full. Some casting classes, such as the Wizard and Druid, have abilities that let them recover some spell slots on a short rest—but these abilities themselves can only be used once per long rest, so at the end of the day, are still long-rest dependent. Additionally, martial classes, due to their larger hit dice, tend to recover more hit points on a short rest than spellcasting classes do. But, because casters get minor benefits from taking short rests, their players won't be frustrated by the need for taking them.

If you, as GM, provide many opportunities for a short rest (which is about an hour), but keep long rests few and far between, then martial classes can keep going while spellcasters are run ragged. In the context of a dungeon, you can, for instance, let them take short rests in cleared rooms as long as they put a modicum of effort into securing the room (blocking or locking the doors, for instance), but stress that long rests are impossible. There is simply no way to have eight relaxing, uninterrupted hours in a dungeon; Wandering Monsters will attack, spoiling the rest. What's more, the constant threat of attack from the unknown makes true relaxation unachievable. You can be upfront about this; don't assume the players know what you mean when you coyly say "well, you could try that, but you might be attacked in the night."

If the party wants to take a long rest, they have to leave the dungeon, set up camp, and come back—which will involve fighting their way through the Wandering Monsters that have moved into previously-cleared areas, thus wearing the party down again and defeating the purpose. Conveniently, all of this is simulated by the Wandering Monster table—the GM doesn't have to worry about actually moving monsters from room to room. Because Wandering Monster tables are at their heart a computer-free technological aid, the random die rolls on the table simulates all of the movement of a real ecosystem, much the same way that a character's hit points simulate their overall health, but remove a lot of the headache of doing so.

For very large dungeons, such as Paul Jacquay's famous Caverns of Thracia, it at first appears simply impossible for any party, no matter how stringent they are with spells and potions, to complete in a single long rest. In part, this is mitigated by numerous hidden entrances into the dungeon that, once discovered, can be used to bypass previously-cleared sections. There are also numerous shortcuts, such as teleport pads and elevators, that can be used in a similar manner. Still, all of that might not be quite enough, and when designing very large dungeons, occasional points of safety can be placed that are free of Wandering Monsters. They might have particularly secure doors, be protected by magic, or some kind of friendly NPC or monster. Think of these as a video game mid-dungeon save point, both in terms of how powerful an effect it will have, and how rare it should be.

Time Pressure

Into the Living Library relies heavily on Wandering Monsters because they play well with the adventure's time crunch: each time the party faces such a monster, their consumable resources (spells, potions, HP) are slightly depleted, and they must choose whether to press on in their weakened state or return to campus to rest, which means sacrificing one of their precious few days.

Wandering Monsters, tied with any kind of external time pressure, pack more work into a single adventuring day, and with that, the expenditure of more spells. Spellcasters' 'basic' attacks (cantrips and crossbows) tend to be much less powerful than those of a Fighter, Barbarian, or Paladin. If high-level spells and per-day abilities have to be carefully rationed out over the course of many encounters, rather than just one or two, then casters are brought down to the level of non-casters.

Not every adventure should include a time pressure element, as the players will start to feel rushed and possibly even railroaded, as the constant time demands may keep them from feeling able to pursue their own goals. Beware Fallout 4's Preston Garvey, who continually dispenses timed quests that pull the player away from doing what they want to do.

Keep the Battles Unbalanced

As a GM, I often forget that my toolbox includes more than perfectly-balanced encounters. It may sound like an oxymoron, but there is a time and a place for a poorly-balanced battle, which brings us back to the original post. Oblivion, my least-favourite Elder Scrolls game, has highly restrictive game rules in place in an attempt to keep every battle, whether it be against a necromancer lord or a random bandit, balanced on a knife's edge. Enemies and equipment level up closely in step with the player, meaning that as the player gains power, so too does the world. The drawback is that there are few if any "oh, crap!" moments where the player gets in over their head. Likewise, there are very few moments where the player simply obliterates the enemies in front of them, and, by doing so, feels like a badass.

By all means, strive for perfect balance and interesting terrain in your pre-made set-piece battles (such as what might be found in a dungeon's room, for example), but for Wandering Monsters, imbalance is a feature, not a bug. Battles that are 'too easy' will be resolved quickly (saving precious game time), and battles that are 'too hard' won't be fought at all—the party will turn tail and run (convincing the party to run rather than fight a losing battle is a good subject for a later post). Battles that are close to balanced will be drawn-out slugfests, forcing the party to draw upon every available resource. They will take ages, and burn through per-day abilities much faster than you intend, which in turn forces the party to leave the dungeon, thus contributing to the 15-minute adventuring day. Remember that easy battles will still drain the party's resources somewhat, as even the weakest monsters in 5e have a pretty good chance of getting one or two hits on any character, and players will be constantly tempted to blow the trash monsters away with their limited-use abilities, like spells and smites.

Another rarely-mentioned feature of unbalanced encounters is that they let you use a greater percentage of the Monster Manual when designing your dungeons, thus increasing the variety of creatures the party can meet. Using only level-appropriate encounters limits you to an ever-decreasing handful of creatures as the party levels up, and can push you into placing monsters in unthematic areas just to reduce the monotony a little. It also means that, in a few levels, when the party actually can fight the same type of high-level monster they've been running from, victory will feel all the sweeter.

Next Up: Wandering Traps?

#D&D #D&D5e #OnWanderingMonsters

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exactlydeafeningdeer · 3 years ago

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The performance of a centrifugal fan with enlarged impeller

The influence of enlarged impeller in unchanged volute on G4-73 type centrifugal fan performance is investigated in this paper. Comparisons are conducted between the fan with original impeller and two larger impellers with the increments in impeller outlet diameter of 5% and 10% respectively in the numerical and experimental investigations. The internal characteristics are obtained by the numerical simulation, which indicate there is more volute loss in the fan with larger impeller. Experiment results show that the flow rate, total pressure rise, shaft power and sound pressure level have increased, while the efficiency have decreased when the fan operates with larger impeller. Variation equations on the performance of the operation points for the fan with enlarged impellers are suggested. Comparisons between experiment results and the trimming laws show that the trimming laws for usual situation can predict the performance of the enlarged fan impeller with less error for higher flow rate, although the situation of application is not in agreement. The noise frequency analysis shows that higher noise level with the larger impeller fan is caused by the reduced impeller–volute gap.

An implicit, time-accurate 3D Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solver is used to simulate the rotating stall phenomenon in a plastic centrifugal fan. The goal of the present work is to shed light on the flow field and particularly the aerodynamic noise at different stall conditions. Aerodynamic characteristics, frequency domain characteristics, and the contours of sound power level under two different stall conditions are discussed in this paper. The results show that, with the decrease of valve opening, the amplitude of full pressure and flow fluctuations tends to be larger and the stall frequency remains the same. The flow field analysis indicates that the area occupied by stall cells expands with the decrease of flow rate. The noise calculation based on the simulation underlines the role of vortex noise after the occurrence of rotating stall, showing that the high noise area rotates along with the stall cell in the circumferential direction.

As the power source of the air and gas system in the thermal power plant, the operation status of the centrifugal fan is directly related to the safe and economic operation of the power plant. Rotating stall in the centrifugal fan is a local instabilities phenomenon in which one or more cells propagate along the blade row in the circumferential direction. The nonuniform flow, the so-called stall cell, rotates as a fraction of the shaft speed, typically between 20% and 70%. This running mode is responsible for strong vibrations which could damage the blades [1]. Meanwhile, it will increase the aerodynamic noise.

In order to reveal the generation mechanism of rotating stall, lots of models and theories have been proposed since the 1960s. Especially, experimental methods were widely used to illustrate the characteristics of internal flow field during stall. Lennemann and Howard discussed the causes of stall cells in low flow rate condition through the hydrogen bubble flow visualization method [2]. Lucius and Brenner experimentally studied the speed variation of a centrifugal pump in rotating stall stage [3]. For the centrifugal turbomachine, multiple factors can affect the characteristics of stall. Vaneless diffuser, for example, has significant influence on stall. Hasmatuchi et al. experimentally investigated the effect of blowing technology on the flow field of a centrifugal pump under rotating stall [4]. Rodgers conducted an experimental research on rotating stall in a centrifugal compressor with a vaneless diffuser and found that the stall margin can be improved through adjusting the expansion pressure factor [5]. Abidogun carried out an experiment to investigate the influence of vaneless diffuser on the stall characteristics. The results showed that increasing the length of diffuser can improve the rotating speed of stall, and the change of width showed no effect on stall [6].

Further efforts were made to study the stall inception in order to avoid the occurrence or minimize the effect of stall. As well accepted, two types of stall inception proposed by Camp and Day modal wave inception and spike inception were investigated experimentally [7]. Leinhos et al. studied development process of stall inception under instantaneous inflow distortion in an axial compressor [8].

With the rapid development of computer technology, numerical simulation has become an important method for flow field research of turbomachine under rotating stall conditions. Gourdain et al. investigated the ability of an unsteady flow solver to simulate the rotating stall phenomenon in an axial compressor and found that it was necessary to take the whole geometry into consideration to correctly predict the stall frequency [1]. Choi et al. investigated the effects of fan speed on rotating stall inception; the results showed that, at 60% speed (subsonic), tip leakage flow spillage occurred successively in the trailing blades of the mis-staggered blades [9]. Zhang et al. numerically studied the stall inception in a centrifugal fan, and the results showed that the stall inception experienced probably 50 rotor cycles developing into a stall group. The inception showed significant modal waveform. The importance of volute for generation of stall inception was illustrated through flow field analysis [10].

Aerodynamic noise is mainly caused by vortex and flow separation. So the unsteady behavior of rotating stall may have an influence on the noise of centrifugal fan. In capturing the physical mechanism of the fan noise associated with rotating stall, the primary work is to characterize the noise. During the 1960s, the interaction between noise and turbulence was discussed by Powell, and the vortex sound theory was proposed to explain the generation of acoustic sound. Then, Lighthill made a breakthrough in aerodynamic noise theory research by proposing the acoustic analogy [11]. Based on these works, Díaz et al. put forward a prediction of the tonal noise generation in an axial flow fan, and the noise level in the plastic centrifugal blower far-field region was estimated by means of acoustic analogy [12]. Scheit et al. analyzed the far-field noise in a metal centrifugal fan with an acoustic analogy method and presented design guidelines to optimize the radiated noise of the impeller [13]. The global control of subsonic axial fan at the blade passing frequency was also discussed by Gérard et al. [14]. He aimed at cancelling the tonal noise by using a single loudspeaker in front of the fan with a single-input-single-output adaptive feedforward controller. According to Ouyang et al.’s work, the far-field noise generated by cross-flow fan with different impellers was measured and it showed the great influence of blade angles on the inflow pattern [15]. Based on the previous research, a new method to predict the fan noise and performance is developed by Lee et al., and through an acoustic analogy, the acoustic pressures from the unsteady force fluctuations of the blades are obtained [16].

In summary, a wide range of flow characteristics on rotating stall in compressor have been investigated and the researches concentrated on stall inception. The present work focuses on two aspects: simulation of the rotating stall phenomenon with a 3D flow solver and seeking the deep physical mechanism of this instability in a centrifugal fan. The numerical method is presented with the model and the particular boundary conditions are used. Results from the whole geometry simulation are then analyzed. In the first part, aerodynamic characteristics and frequency domain characteristics of the centrifugal fan under different stall conditions are analyzed. In the second part, the velocity vector field distributions in the centrifugal fan are discussed. Finally, noise characteristics of the centrifugal fan under different stall conditions are studied. And the noise characteristics during the circumferential propagation of stall cells are also discussed.

2. Centrifugal Fan Description

The configuration of range hood centrifugal fan studied in this work is shown in Figure 1. It is composed of current collector, impeller with 12 airfoil blades, and the volute. The inlet and outlet diameter of the impeller are 568 mm and 800 mm, respectively. The inlet and outlet width of impeller are 271 mm and 200 mm, respectively. The nominal rotation speed is 1450 rpm. The volute tongue gap is 1% of the impeller outlet diameter. The width of the rectangular volute is 520 mm, and a simple antivortex ring is set inside the volute to reduce the generation of vortex. At the design operating point, the volume flow is 6.32 m3/s and the full pressure is 1870 Pa.

As shown in Figure 8(b), under the combining influence of both stall cell and volute tongue, the high noise area is gradually elongated. Due to the propagation of stall cell, it gradually gets away from the area of volute tongue, resulting in weakening the superimposing effect. As time goes by, the high noise area in Figure 8(c) gets further elongated with a trend of separation and the sound power level of high noise areas decreases. In Figure 8(d), the high noise areas corresponding to the vortex noise and volute tongue noise basically separate. And the sound power level corresponding to volute tongue greatly declines.

It can be drawn from Figure 8 that while the impeller passes three passages along clockwise direction, the high noise area passes two impeller passages along the clockwise direction. It indicates that, in the absolute coordinate reference system, the high noise area occupying about three impeller passages rotates in the same direction with impeller under rotating stall. It also has the same speed with stall cells, while in the relative coordinate reference system, high noise area spreads in the opposite direction of the rotation of the impeller.

Through the analysis above, there are two major sources of noise in a centrifugal fan under rotating stall, namely, the vortex noise caused by stall and the volute tongue noise caused by the rotation of impeller. When the stall cell spreads to the volute tongue, due to the superimposing effect of vortex noise and volute tongue noise, the sound power level is the highest and the high noise area is the largest. While the stall cell is away from the volute tongue, the corresponding high noise areas separate gradually. Along with that, the sound power level decreases and the high noise area becomes smaller. Therefore, the aerodynamic noise of the centrifugal fan under rotating stall changes periodically over time, and the fluctuation period is the same with the rotating period of the stall cell.

The authors declare that they have no financial or personal relationships with other people or organizations that can inappropriately influence their work; there is no professional or other personal interests of any nature or kind in any product, service, and/or company that could be construed as influencing the position presented in, or the review of, this paper.

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chinasourcingagent2019-blog · 5 years ago

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These 12 freight forwarder traps you must know

When doing business with China, it’s important to note that purchasing products from China Manufacturing Companies is not the end of the line. Next comes the task of getting the product from the factory to whatever final destination you have in mind. This might sound simple enough. But when you’re dealing with international trade on an industrial scale things can become complex quickly. This is where freight forwarders come in.

Freight forwarder’s job is to move products from point A to point B by any means necessary. But this doesn’t mean that the forwarder is physically moving the goods themselves. Freight forwarders are logistics managers who arrange and oversee the transportation process. They act as a sort of travel agent for inanimate objects.

Whether you are looking to act as your own freight forwarder or hire someone to do the work for you, it’s important to understand the involved risks in the process. Shipping products internationally is a complex task that has plenty of potential risks. Don’t let your business get derailed by a simple mistake. If you watch out for these twelve freight forwarder traps then you’ll greatly increase your chances of success.

1. Incomplete bills of lading

The bill of lading is a document that carriers issue to shippers detailing exactly what is being shipped and where it is being shipped to. It’s an absolutely essential document to fill out precisely.

When an order is ready to be completed consignees are asked for the complete information of bill of lading before shipment. In addition to information about the shipped goods, the consignee must provide their ZIP code, enterprise code, or tax code. Which you need to provide will depend on the regulations of different trading countries.

Filling out a bill of lading properly is one area where an experienced freight forwarder can be a huge help. However the shipowner won’t tell you anything about complete bill of lading information you need provide. So if you don’t know what to fill in you need to find someone who knows. Making changes after the fact can be a costly process. Because all changes after the submission of supplementary materials will result in amendment fees. Things can get even worse after the delivery of the manifest, when changes may need to be approved by the port of destination. This can lead to penalties on top of the basic amendment fees. Avoid all of these issues by making sure that the bill of lading fills out correctly from the start.

2. Shipping across the month

Shipping out your goods as soon as they are ready to move may seem like the obvious choice to make, but it can actually cut into your profit margins. The cost of shipping goes up and down over time according to certain patterns. It is very common for shipowners to raise prices in the beginning and middle of the month. They will reduce the price if they don’t receive goods or even they don’t receive goods well. This fact frustrates many, but if you use it to your advantage you can increase the profitability of your shipments.

Always keep an eye out for a shipping window that is as safe and affordable as possible. You can also choose different routes based on their stability. The ocean lines through the waters of Europe, the Caribbean, South America, the United States, and Canada, and parts of the Middle East tend to be more volatile. On the other hand, the waters of Southeast Asia, South Korea, Japan, and other Asia-pacific regions tend to be relatively stable.

3. Discrepancies between shipment and arrival dates

Sticking to a shipping schedule is incredibly important. If a product needs to reach its final destination as soon as possible then you shouldn’t be cutting corners and opting for the cheapest shipping method. Remember to keep the big picture in mind, late arrivals are costly in their own way.

While it can be tempting to choose the least expensive option available at any given time, it is important to look at big images. Take the example of furniture being shipped to a hotel that is about to open. The person might want to save money during the shipping process, but what if slow shipping means that the furniture will arrive at the hotel past its opening day? This has happened in the past and resulted in fees worth thousands of Australian dollars, greatly surpassing the amount that they saved in shipping time. You must always weigh the cost of shipping against the cost of a late arrival.

4. Confused subdividing ports

Ports are large and busy places. This is why you need to be precise about exactly where your goods will be within a port. It isn’t enough to simply state that a shipment might be in a port like JAKARTA, since a port like that will be packed with countless shipping containers from all across the globe. Ports are subdivided for this reason and you must always be precise about listing exactly which subdivision your shipments will be in every step of the way.

Take the port of KARACHI for example. This giant port breaks down into subdivisions with names like PICT, KICT, SAPT, and QASIM. If the correct subdivision name isn’t written down or tracked properly then shipments can get delayed or even lost directly. Small typos or disorganization can waste time and money. Don’t let this happen to you, make sure you know exactly where your shipment will be within the different ports it goes through.

5. Unrecorded container damage

Shipping containers are not disposable goods, they are designed to be used over and over again. Each time a container ships from one port to another it will take on some sort of damage. Dents, scratches, water leakage, stains, and other types of damage happen all of the type. The important thing is keeping track of these damages. So you can prove what condition the container was in when you first got your hands on it.

Photographic proof of the condition of a container is very important. Take container photos before loading as well as display the time and license plate. These photos should then be sent to the shipowner for record by the agent. This shows that you know what condition the container is in and you’ll be able to prove who is responsible for any additional damages that might occur. If you don’t take these photos then it can be argued that new damages were actually old and had simply gone unrecorded.

6. Uninsured shipments

Insurance is always a good choice. Many people think that insurance isn’t legally required then it is just an unnecessary expense that should be cut to increase profitability. But this is the epitome of short-sighted thinking.

International shipping involves risks. Even with all of the latest advancements in technology, there are still mistakes that happen which result in damaged or lost goods. If you’re operating on narrow margins then these sort of losses can be devastating. The way to mitigate these risks is by sharing the burden with an insurance company.

A secondary trap is dragging your feet with insurance claims. Just having insurance isn’t enough, you need to make claims in a timely fashion. As soon as you spy a problem you need to contact the insurance company to check on-site and provide the complete claim information according to their instructions. The more time you let pass before making your claim, the less likely it is that you’ll get the money you deserve.

7. Brand infringement

The legalities around branding and copyright are serious business. Before shipping anything across borders you need to be confident that you can prove that you have the legal right to do so. This is especially important when dealing with the original equipment manufacturer, or OEM services. In these situations, the company that produces the product is different from the one that markets it, which can be confusing to customs officials who don’t understand the situation. It is further complicated by differences that might exist between two different countries. Make sure you do the research necessary to sort out these issues before you start shipping to prevent disasters.

Even if everything you do is completely legitimate you still might run into troubles if you are unprepared. Issues can arise if customs agents make an unexpected inspection and have questions that the manufacturer can’t answer. If you haven’t provided the factory with a letter of authorization, that factory might have its goods confiscated. Communications can quickly break down when the two parties are separated by thousands of kilometers and plenty of time zones. Don’t wait for issues to arise, make sure that all potential branding issues address before you try to ship your product out.

8. Incomplete transshipment clauses

Sometimes the most efficient way to move goods from point A to point B is by making a stop at point C along the way. This is referred to as transshipment, where goods visit an intermediary point in between the place they were manufactured and their final destination. Including such a stop in your route is a smart idea, the problems arise when you don’t let the authorities know about these stops.

Returning to the top of the bill of lading, you need to pay special attention to the transshipment clause if you have opted for transshipping. If you don’t fill out the form to include all destinations then you can get in big trouble. Due to various problems, most consignees will choose to ship their goods to MERSIN/BANDAR ABBAS and then have them transshipped by a local agent. This wouldn’t be a problem, except many forget to include this information in the bill of lading. The solution is as simple as adding CARGO IN TRANSIT TO *** VIA *** BY *** to the transshipment clause. This shows that the consignee is taking on the risks of the transshipment process. But that’s the price you must pay. Only after adding this information can the cross-border transport be carried out.

9. Improper time management

Time is of the essence through every step of the shipping process. The more steps added to the process, the more variables you need to account for in your planning. Transshipment adds new variables and new risks. When using transshipment 21 days free time is indispensable. Without this, the consignee could be stuck paying for an overdue container rental.

This is one area where experience comes in handy. Many forms include a default free time, but that time limit is rarely enough. An experienced agent will know to apply for additional free time to avoid costly overtime fees. The best agents will get their clients the free time they need, whether they ask for it or not. Still, it is in your best interest to be proactive and see to it that your shipping agent is customer-oriented, whether or not the client asks for it.

10. Incorrectly valued goods

You never want to give customs agents any reason to cause you trouble. Because one of the most sources of problems is improperly valued goods. Taxes are levied based on the value of the goods. So imagine what a customs agent might think if they see a suspicious value. They could believe that you are trying to steal from their government. It should be easy to see how this can lead to trouble.

You should always be as scrupulous as possible when valuing your goods. Even if you think your numbers are obviously accurate you should still prepare to provide evidence to support your numbers. If a customs agent believes you are undervaluing your goods then you could be facing fines or more serious legal actions. Remember that trying to earn a little bit more money with each sale through questionable tactics might end up costing your business.

11. The importance of cargo weight

Another critical factor to account for is cargo weight. To begin with, your shipment will need to be an acceptable weight before they can be loaded onto ships and trailers. Going above the maximum weight can result in fees, rejections, and delays. There will also be officials who are looking for discrepancies between the weight you’ve provided. They measure the weight on the ship or in customs. Even honest mistakes can lead to questions that cost time and trouble. Save yourself the hassle by taking the time to calculate and document the weight of your cargo ahead of time.

12. LCL fees

While trying to fit too much into a container can be a problem, you may also get in trouble for not filling up a container enough. When a container doesn’t fill to a certain point you have what is called a less than container load, or LCL. Sometimes you need to ship your goods before you’ve received enough orders to fill a whole container. In this case, you will likely have to pay LCL fees. But these fees are not equal from one location to another.

In areas like Europe, Japan, and India, LCL fees tend to be higher. This is why a good freight forwarder will carefully compare different shipment paths, bypassing ports in these territories when shipping LCL. It could be that a full container might make sense to ship through India while an LCL might be better off going through Sri Lanka or Bangladesh. With every changing variable the profitability of a shipping route changes. Make sure you consider the possibility of LCL fees when charting a course for your next shipment.

Moving freight efficiently and affordability

After examining these twelve traps you should now have a better idea of what freight forwarding entails. There are still many other potential issues to look for. But with these in mind, you will have an easier time spotting problems before they arise.

The most important takeaway should be the value of an experienced partner. The world of importing and exporting goods is a complex web of logistical and legal issues. When you are working in a sector where business runs on tight margins you need to do everything you can to avoid any mistake that could cut into your profits. A experienced trade agent with freight forwarding knows the lay of the land. It can help keep your business moving forward.

Forward-looking research, meticulous paperwork, and careful time management are the keys to successful freight forwarding. If you can master these skills, or hire someone who already has, then you can ensure that your shipments will go as smoothly as possible.

The article comes from: https://www.chinasourcingagent.com/

#China sourcing

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davidslepkow · 5 years ago

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A hernia mesh attorney sets forth what you need to know before you file a hernia mesh lawsuit. An informed client will learn what he or she needs to know before filing a surgical mesh lawsuit. Hernia mesh lawsuits are serious business and victims need to be knowledgeable before they retain a mesh law firm. “According to recent court filings, consumers have filed more than 50,000 lawsuits against the manufacturers of abdominal hernia mesh implants. The FDA estimates there are more than 1 million hernia repairs each year. Hernia surgical mesh is typically used to treat inguinal or groin hernias.” Legalscoops

An uniformed surgical mesh victim will retain the wrong lawyer and perhaps miss a state imposed statute of limitations.

If a surgical mesh victim misses a mesh lawsuit deadline, he or she will be precluded from obtaining justice and compensation as a result of their defective hernia mesh.

A hernia mesh lawsuit statute of limitations is a serious matter which should concern hernia mesh lawyers as well as vicims.

Update-5-26-2020- There is now a state consolidated Ethicon Proceed hernia mesh lawsuit. The Ethicon Proceed Hernia Mesh Multi-County Litigation is now being litigated in the Superior Court of New Jersey Law Division- Atlantic County- MCL Case No: 630. The caption of the case is: IN RE PROCEED MESH LITIGATION. There is also a consolidated Prolene Hernia system Multicounty litigation pending in New Jersey State Courts.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW BEFORE YOU FILE HERNIA MESH LAWSUIT

These mesh lawsuits are not class actions- Many hernia mesh victims mistakenly believe that their lawsuit will be part of a hernia mesh class action. There are no mesh class actions in the United States. There is a Physiomesh surgical mesh class action lawsuit in Canada. There has never been a hernia mesh class action in the United States. Victims can count their blessing that their defective medical device causes of action are not associated with a class action! Class actions marginalize victims and make tort attorneys very rich. Victims tend to get the short end of the stick. In a class action, victims are not allowed to select their own hernia mesh attorney and have no real control over the decision process. In a class action, the mesh victim would not get to make the decision whether to settle or proceed to a mesh trial in front of a jury of his or her peers.

Several types of mesh claims pending in the United States Federal Courts have been consolidated into Multidistrict Litigation (MDL). An MDL is not a class action. In a surgical mesh MDL, claims are consolidated for pretrial proceedings, discovery and settlement. In an MDL, each mesh victim gets their own hernia mesh lawsuit lawyer. These mesh victims can make their own settlement decisions. If the case does not settle, the mesh lawsuit is sent back to the original court for a jury trial. Jury trials are typically not heard by the MDL Court, with the exception of a very limited amount of bellwether trials.

Mesh lawsuit settlement amounts: It may take years before a hernia mesh victim experiences a sense of justice by way of a hernia mesh judgment after a trial or possibly a lucrative mesh settlement. Some victims never get a sense of justice and closure because they settle for a paltry sum or lose their hernia mesh lawsuit. Get an experienced, high powered hernia mesh attorney or a surgical mesh law firm with top lawyers. Top attorneys or law firms will increase a hernia patch victim’s chances to get a top dollar mesh settlement. Make sure you carefully read this medical device blog so that you are aware what you need to know before entering into a mesh settlement. What is the average hernia mesh settlement?

An FDA recall is not necessary: Many victim’s wrongly believe that they cannot file a mesh lawsuit unless their hernia mesh was recalled. In actuality, only a small number of hernia mesh medical devices have been recalled. An informed victim who searches for “know before you file a hernia mesh lawsuit” and reads articles will be in a much better position to deal with this type of lawsuit. However, there are many different types of hernia surgical mesh that has been the subject of lawsuits and litigation. Many victims believe that Ethicon Physiomesh was recalled. In actuality, Physiomesh was voluntarily removed by Ethicon from U.S. markets because of allegations and studies indicating it was defective. This may be the ultimate distinction without a difference. In Canada and other countries, Ethicon recalled Physiomesh.

England complication rate study- 12 to 30 percent: “Up to 170 000 patients who have had hernia mesh operations in the past six years could be experiencing complications, yet NHS trusts in England have no consistent policy for treatment or follow-up with patients, an investigation by the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire programme has found Around 570 0000 hernia mesh operations have taken place in England over the past six years, figures from NHS Digital show. Leading surgeons think that the complication rate is between 12% and 30%, meaning that between 68 000 and 170 000 patients could have been adversely affected in this period.Patients who had had hernia mesh operations told the programme about being in constant pain, unable to sleep, and finding it difficult to walk or even pick up a sock. Some patients said that they felt suicidal.” BMJ

Find the best mesh lawsuit law firm: The best hernia mesh law firm will have numerous experienced and high powered big time attorneys. The surgical mesh law firm will have a support staff and paralegals to handle a high volume of these types of lawsuits. To be effective, this firm must have extensive experience in mass tort product liability claims litigated in Federal Court.

Canadian Ethicon Physiomesh victim’s may file an individual lawsuit in The U.S.: Certain Canadian citizens, who are victims, may be able to file a lawsuit in the United States.These Canadian victims may get the benefit of evading a Canada class action while filing an individual lawsuit..

Canadian citizens may also be entitled to file Bard / Davol hernia mesh lawsuits as well as other types of mesh lawsuits in the United States.

Hernia mesh victims in the UK, EU, Scotland and across the world may be entitled to file lawsuits against Bard Davol for defective hernia mesh.

Research the following hernia mesh questions: Will there be hernia mesh problems years later? Seven of the most frequent question victims ask are: (1) What does a victim need to know for a surgical mesh lawsuit and (2) What is an average settlement for hernia mesh and (3) can there be hernia mesh complications years later? (4) How much do you need to know before you file such a lawsuit? (5) What are the hernia mesh infection symptoms? (6)What is a hernia? (7) What is hernia mesh?

Find the best hernia mesh law firm: Your surgical mesh lawsuit is of utmost importance to you. You should retain one of the best mesh law firms in the United States. You should not hire a Physiomesh attorney or a Ventralex lawyer a few days out of law school or a hernia mesh attorney who moonlights as a traffic ticket lawyer..

Be concerned about the Statute of Limitations: if you wait too long before you pursue a hernia mesh related lawsuit you may be barred by a statute of limitations / State Statute of Limitations from receiving damages and compensation as a result of defective hernia mesh. Even if it appears that the statute of limitations has expired in your state, always consult with a hernia mesh law firm. The reason you should speak with a mesh attorney is because the statute of limitations of a different state may apply or you may be entitled to an extended / tolled statute of limitations for various reasons.

Many victims of Bard / Davol hernia mesh qualify and have taken advantage of an extended, long lasting statute of limitations in Rhode Island. The RI statute of limitations could be nearly endless. This is a legal loophole that many victims may be able to take advantage of. The statute of limitations varies from state to state. Some state even have a statute of repose.

“In 2001, Dutch researchers who surveyed adults who underwent inguinal herniorrhaphy reported that more than 25% of patients experienced pain in their groin one year after surgery and 11% reported pain that was interfering with work or leisure activity (Ann Surg 2001;233:1-7). Ten years later, a German study reported a 16.5% incidence of chronic pain six months after mesh repair (Ann Surg 2011;254:163-168). Nevertheless, a wide range of pain incidence, from 0% to 45%, has been reported in studies, with a broad range of definitions, making it difficult to know the true incidence of chronic pain. Approximately 800,000 inguinal hernia repairs are performed each year in the United States. Since 2000, repairs not using mesh have represented less than 10% of groin hernia repair techniques. If one in 10 patients experience debilitating pain after a mesh hernia repair, millions of patients could be affected worldwide, Dr. Kavic noted in an interview following his presentation.”General Surgery News

There can be no relevant or meaningful average hernia mesh settlement for several reasons: (a) Many hernia mesh settlements are confidential and not reported (b) Mesh settlements depend on the facts of the case, the nature of the mesh complications, mesh surgery symptoms and the amount of medical bills

What are the causes of a hernia?– “Causes of Hernias- Most hernias are caused by a combination of pressure and an opening or weakness of muscle or connective tissue. The pressure pushes an organ or tissue through the opening or weak spot. Sometimes the muscle weakness is present at birth but more often it occurs later in life. Anything that causes an increase in abdominal pressure can cause a hernia, including obesity, lifting heavy objects, diarrhea or constipation, or persistent coughing or sneezing. Poor nutrition, smoking, and overexertion can weaken muscles and contribute to the likelihood of a hernia.” FDA

This legal article by a lawyer answers the questions of what surgical mesh victims need to know before filing a lawsuit.

THE FOLLOWING HERNIA MESH LAWSUITS ARE CONSOLIDATED TO AN MDL IN FEDERAL COURTS:

IN RE: ETHICON PHYSIOMESH FLEXIBLE COMPOSITE HERNIA MESH PRODUCTS LIABILITY LITIGATION MDL No. 2782 (Northern District Of Georgia)

In Re: Atrium Medical Corp. C-Qur Mesh Products Liability Litigation (MDL No. 2753)

The Kugel hernia mesh MDL in Rhode Island Federal Courts (Was disbanded in 2017 after many cases settled)

Hernia mesh update: The U.S. Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation, established an MDL (In Re: Davol, Inc. / C.R. Bard, Inc.,Polypropylene Hernia Mesh Products Liability Litigation, MDL Docket No.2846, JPMD) As a result, there is now a Bard/ Davol polyproplene hernia mesh MDL entitled: “2:18-md-2846 — IN RE: Davol, Inc./C.R. Bard, Inc., Polypropylene Hernia Mesh Products Liability Litigation.”

WHAT TYPES OF SURGICAL MESH LAWSUITS INFORMATION ARE VICTIMS SEARCHING FOR ONLINE?

Victims are looking for information about hernia mesh settlement amounts for any such lawsuit. Many victims need to know what the statute of limitations is for the state where they reside as well as potential hernia compensation amounts. Will here ever be a surgical mesh class action lawsuit in the United States? What do victims need to know before you file a lawsuit?

HERNIA MESH LAWSUIT STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS

Here are some of the questions victims are asking us: What are the average hernia mesh settlement amounts ? Are surgical mesh lawsuit settlements likely to occur in the near future? What is the average settlement for these types of lawsuits? What is a hernia mesh lawsuit statute of limitations.

WHAT IS A HERNIA?

Knowing the answer to a simple question such as: What is a hernia? is important for surgical mesh victims to understand. Victims need to understand the basics of these types of lawsuits before they can understand complex concepts. The quote below is perhaps one of the best answers to what seems like a simple question.

HERNIA DEFINITION

Below you will find a hernia definition. No one can doubt that this definition is part of what you need to know before you file hernia mesh lawsuit .”A hernia is defined as a protrusion or projection (prolapse) of an organ through the wall of the cavity where it is normally contained. There are many types of hernia, mostly classified according to the physical location, with the abdominal wall being the most susceptible site. Specifically, reports show that the most frequently seen hernia is the inguinal hernia (70–75% of cases), followed by femoral (6–17%) and umbilical (3–8.5%) hernias. Hernias are also found in other sites such as the ventral or epigastric hernia, located between the chest cavity and the umbilicus.” Past, Present and Future of Surgical Meshes:

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douchebagbrainwaves · 4 years ago

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WHY I'M SMARTER THAN FOUNDERS

We are still very suspect of this idea but will take a meeting as you suggest. Working for a small one, and actually did.1 Understanding growth is what starting a startup: growth makes the successful companies so valuable that all the time, I would have laughed at him. You can't make a mouse by scaling down an elephant.2 Fundamentally the same thing. The culmination of my career as a writer of press releases was one celebrating his graduation, illustrated with a drawing I did of him during a meeting. Other kids' opinions become their definition of right, not just because they so often don't, but because you shouldn't have a fixed amount of deal flow, by encouraging hackers who would have gotten jobs to start their own startups instead. I wanted to start a startup.

Nerds don't realize this.3 We're default dead, but we're not fucking.4 If the founders aren't sure what to focus on your least expensive plan.5 They don't consciously dress to be popular. As jobs become more specialized—more articulated—as they develop, and startups have lots of meetings but isn't progressing toward making you an offer, you automatically focus less on them. One founder said this should be your approach to all programming, not just startups, and in particular that the environment in big companies is toxic to programmers.6 Its length and slope determine how big the company will be a flop and you're wasting your time although they probably won't say this directly. And conditions in our niche are really quite different. When Steve and Alexis auctioned off their old laptops for charity, I bought them for the Y Combinator museum.7 The world seemed cruel and boring, and I'm not sure which was worse. If there are any laws regulating businesses, you can start as soon as the first one is ready to buy.

So the randomness of any one investor's behavior can really affect you. He said he has learned much more in his own image; they're just one species among many, descended not merely from apes, but from microorganisms. When the values of the elite in this country is a policy that would cost practically nothing. When your fundraising options run out, they usually run out in the same area, they had a different goal. I think it needs even more emphasizing.8 It is enormously fun to be at least $50 million. And popularity is not a new idea. One's first thought when looking at them all is to ask if there's a super-pattern, a pattern to the patterns. You should always talk to investors your m.

If you judge by the median rather than the average. And indeed, the growth in the first place. During Y Combinator we get an increasing number of companies that have already raised amounts in the hundreds of thousands. It took me surprisingly long to realize how distracting the Internet had become, because the VCs need them more than they originally intended.9 As you go into a startup, things seem great one moment and hopeless the next. You have to seem confident, and you need to be hackers to do what we do.10 That means closing this investor is the first priority, and you get what you deserve. We do a lot of implications and edge cases. Like any war, it's damaging even to the winners.

If you're designing a chair, that's what you're designing for, and there's no way around it. The reason is that good design requires that one person think of everything.11 That's the key. Why? When I have to say, not at all, because if I'd explained things well enough, nothing should have surprised them. Don't keep sucking on the straw if you're just getting air. Raising $20,000 from a first-time angel investor can be as much work as raising $2 million from a VC fund.

In the US things are more haphazard. Whatever the story is in the form of dividends.12 It's harder to judge startups than most other things, because great startup ideas tend to seem wrong. Tell them that valuation is not even the protagonists: we're just the latest model vehicle our genes have constructed to travel around in. If normal food is so bad for us, why is it so common? The most intriguing thing about this theory, if it's right, is that it has started to be driven mostly by people's identities. This essay is derived from a talk at the 2009 Startup School. Viaweb we were forced to operate like a consulting company you might be able to make himself one. Reward is always proportionate to risk, and very early stage startups and then ruthlessly culling them at the same rate.13 A country that wants startups will probably also have to reproduce whatever makes these clusters form. There are now a few VC firms outside the US, because they don't want random startups pestering them with business plans.14

We had 2 T1s 3 Mb/sec coming into our offices. That difference is why there's a separate word for startups, and why, if they have some other advantage like extraordinary growth numbers or exceptionally formidable founders. And yet, making what works for the user doesn't mean simply making what the user tells you to. But I also mean startups are different by nature, in the sense that all you have to be a police state, and although present rulers seem enlightened compared to the last, even enlightened despotism can probably only get you part way toward being a great economic power. This varies from field to field in the arts could tell you that you might want different mediums for the two situations. Great universities? What weaknesses could you exploit? My stock gradually rose during high school. Which almost always means hiring too many people. It's so important to launch fast is not so bad, the kids adopt an attitude of waiting for college. Some investors will let you email them a business plan, but you weren't held to it; you could work out all the details, and even make major changes, as you finished the painting.

Three months later they're transformed: they have so much more confidence that they seem as if they've grown several inches taller. You can measure how demoralizing it is by the number of new customers, but it wasn't designed for fun, and mostly it wasn't. So when someone commits, get the money you need, so you can say you've already raised some from well-known investors. And this started to happen more and more desirable things. Startups are marginal. You probably didn't have a precise amount in mind; you just want to make it a much more common one. This is especially true for a service that other companies can use, because it requires their developers to do work.15 How can they get off that trajectory? All the scares induced by seeing a new competitor pop up are forgotten weeks later.16

Notes

One source of difficulty here is defined from the end of World War II had become so common that their system can't be hacked, measure the difference between good and bad outcomes have origins in words about luck. This would add a further level of links.

Robert Morris points out that this filter runs on.

From the beginning even they don't want to create a web-based applications greatly to be able to buy stock, the last place in the ordinary variety that anyone wants.

Watt didn't invent the spreadsheet. I bailed because I realized that without the methodological implications. How much better, because to translate this program into C they literally had to for some reason, rather technical sense of getting rich from controlling monopolies, just that if you pack investor meetings as closely as you raise them. When investors ask you to raise more, and mostly in Perl, and power were concentrated in the last they ever need.

The unintended consequence is that the worm might have to do it is still what seemed to someone still implicitly operating on the aspect they see of piracy, which people used to wonder if they stopped causing so much on luck. You owe them such updates on your thesis. If you're the sort of community. There are some whose definition of property is driven mostly by hackers.

The person who wins. One professor friend says that 15-20% of the movie Dawn of the next downtick it will seem dumb in 100 years, it could be adjacent.

I assume we still do things that don't include the prices of new stock. Though in fact they don't know whether this happens it will become as big a cause as it might be a special name for these topics.

But there's a continuum here. Eric Horvitz. The air traffic control system works because planes would crash otherwise.

There is of course there is at fault, since they're an existing investor, than a huge loophole.

They say to the decline in families eating together was due to fixing old bugs, and the reaction of an investor who says he's interested in you, however, you can't dictate the problem is not just that if you have to go out running or sit home and watch TV, music, phone, and that injustice is what you care about may not have gotten where they all sit waiting for the linguist and presumably teacher Daphnis, but hardly any type I. I now have on the group's accumulated knowledge.

But the result is that you'll expend a lot of investors. How many times larger than the don't-be startup founders tend to be a hot startup. But the result is that there are few things worse than Japanese car companies, summer jobs are the only companies smart enough to do wrong and hard to make you feel that you're not even allowed to ask for more than that.

There were a variety called Red Delicious that had other meanings.

Nor do we push founders to have to rely on social ones. Ed. He couldn't even afford a monitor is that the usual way of doing that even this can give an inaccurate picture.

At some point, when they talk about the details.

You could feel like a little worm of its own.

But if you like doing. As Jeremy Siegel points out, First Round excluded their most successful founders still get rich, people who had made Lotus into the subject of wealth for society. According to the home team, I've become a genuine addict. The same goes for companies that an eminent designer is any better than Jessica.

Thanks to several anonymous CS professors, Robert Morris, Jessica Livingston, and Alex Lewin for reading a previous draft.

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topicprinter · 6 years ago

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Hey - Pat from StarterStory.com here with another interview.Today's interview is with Jack Bramhall of Mugpods, a brand that sells nespresso compatible pods.Some stats:Product: Nespresso compatible pods.Revenue/mo: $21,000Started: September 2015Location: ManchesterFounders: 2Employees: 2Hello! Who are you and what business did you start?Hello there, my name is Jack Bramhall and I am the co-founder of Mugpods - Nespresso compatible pods.Mugpods began back in September 2015 to bring the World’s First hot chocolate pods and coffee range for use in Nespresso machines to the UK market.Initially starting with $6500 capital, we sold out in a matter of weeks following launch, fast forward to today we now average around $21,000 USD per month in revenue with millions of pods sold.What's your backstory and how did you come up with the idea?Throughout my teenage years I had a few small ecommerce businesses and loved the idea of being an entrepreneur.I am a self-taught web designer, and have quite a lot of experience with digital marketing and search engine optimisation. That being said, my previous websites/businesses never really succeeded due to lack of funds and/or operating in highly saturated markets.In 2015, both myself and my co-founder (Mike) owned a Nespresso machine, and the company I was working for (IT/Telecoms) had one on every floor! Colleagues would “club together” to place giant orders direct from the Nespresso website and we were both spending a small fortune a month on these little colourful pods.Quite simply the original idea came from asking the question “Why can’t I get hot chocolate for my Nespresso machine?”, combined with “Surely I can get cheaper Nespresso pods?”.Using Google’s own tools such as the keyword planner and trends, we were able to quickly identify that there were thousands of people asking the same question that I was - but nobody providing the product! The Nespresso and coffee pod market was also quite clearly growing exponentially across the whole of Europe.To be clear, there were other companies making “compatible” pods for these machines, but coffee only and from my own research there were a lot of issues with compatibility and quality.After further research we found only one manufacturer in the World that had managed to crack hot chocolate and so we got in touch about samples and whether they would be open to us buying and selling their products. Initially, I think they possibly doubted if anything would come of it - asking us whether we had relationships we retailers etc which we did not. To prove how serious we were I built the mugpods website in a weekend.The samples arrived and Mike and I (very excitedly) spent an evening trying each and every flavour, they tasted fantastic and worked perfectly across multiple machine models. We then invited friends and family to give them a try and had 100% positive feedback. We immediately got back in touch to formalise everything, and decided to take the risk and committed to a minimum order.Take us through the process of designing, prototyping, and manufacturing your first product.We were quite fortunate enough that the “range” of products already existed from our manufacturer - we simply needed to decide which products we wanted to launch with and then agree on terms (such as exclusivity) which, until we proved ourselves was not on the cards.That being said there were so many “hurdles” that we did not have any prior experience of such as importing, for example learning about commodity codes (codes that are applied to different products when importing) - these codes link to tariffs/taxes which you pay on import.Obviously, one of the first things we had to do was decide on our name, we came up with around 60 different words - the majority contained “pod” or “mug”, each one we checked whether the name already existed and whether the relevant domain names were available - eventually leading us to mugpods! The logo took far longer, we used a website called zillion designs where basically designers submit proposals and you vote/provide feedback on each one. It took 74 revisions for us to finally get to our logo (that we then trademarked).We also perhaps naively thought that if something is organic in one country that means it is organic in ours - how wrong we were! On importing an organic coffee one of our products got quarantined (at a cost per day) for lack of UK certification, then we were told by customs that we could not sell the product AND had to have an inspection to ensure they were not being sold. This mistake cost us thousands so our learning was to ensure any certificates must be valid in your own country and double and triple check your own countries laws around packaging prior to order/manufacture.Describe the process of launching the business.As previously mentioned, we built the website in a weekend using the Prestashop platform and accepted Paypal.Our initial capital came completely from a personal loan of $6500, which was spent almost entirely on our stock (and freight/import costs) right at the beginning, we opted for air freight to get it to us quickly and be able to launch within two weeks.Our official launch was only via social media. The fact we had World’s 1st products made it very easy for us to quickly get our message out via facebook, immediately getting hundreds of comments (and most importantly traffic). We quite simply used images of the chocolate “pod” with the product and text to show it was the World’s 1st. Following that we ran a continuous “boosted” post targeting anyone who liked or had an interest in “Nespresso” and “Hot Chocolate”.Following launch, we were immediately getting daily orders, but at the time both Mike and I were working full time - with all of our stock sat in Mike's parents garage we would get up early every morning, go to Mike's parents house to pack orders, then take them to a local drop off point before going to our day jobs. Within a few months Mikes Mum Lisa started helping during the day as the volume continued to increase.One of the biggest issues right from the beginning was that we had no spare cash, demand was always higher than supply causing us to go out of stock regularly. Almost all funds were going straight back to buy ever increasing amounts of stock. To help fund our growth we sold shares to Mike's parents and a family friend.Mike and I were also regularly paying for things personally or loaning money to the business just to keep things running/actually having stock. This was both exciting and very scary, the business was growing which is surely a good thing - but we never had any cash! All cash was being tied up in the stock which we were roughly doubling in size every time we ordered, we were paying in our own money, Paypal working capital and even Amazon lending just to find funds.A turning point was when we were able to purchase much larger quantities of stock by sea freight which massively improved margin by >30% (this is known as Less than Container Load LCL). When you finally get to a Full Container Load (FCL) is when you are getting the best pricing in terms of freight which ultimately improves your profit per unit once sold.Since launch, what has worked to attract and retain customers?Once we got to a point where we had enough stock to last (which being honest we still struggle with even today) we began looking at multiple ways to increase our visibility but also to retain customers.We have always been very confident in our products, knowing they are a great alternative to Nespresso, all customers are asked if they would like to join our newsletter for offers and promotions when they place their orders (we are explicit that their info is only used for this purpose, and following GDPR have a very detailed privacy policy) and we have quite high signup rates >70% of customers. This has meant a continuous increase in our newsletter subscribers which is now in the thousands. In our emails we tend to share a facebook competition (link to facebook), spotlight a single product and then have a voucher code of around 10% off.We also operate a referral scheme where existing customers can get discount if they invite friends (and the friends make savings too), we have had approx 10% of our customers refer others.Our marketing includes Google Ads, Bings Ads, Facebook Ads to drive relevant Ad traffic, one learning from this is that they are certainly not a set and forget. You can burn through cash if not optimised so need constant tweaks testing new ad’s. We regularly A/B and even C test ads across different demographics.We have also spent a lot of time optimising our website for SEO to appear organically, for example we created a blog full of helpful articles and guides like “How to find the best Nespresso compatible pods” or “Which Nespresso compatible capsules are the strongest?”. Originally we posted new content at least monthly, but in keeping up with latest SEO trends, quality content is far better which ultimately leads to longer dwell time and hopefully in our case leads to a purchase.In addition to the above we have an Affiliate scheme paying commission for any referrals that turn to an order - this has meant we are now on cashback websites and voucher sites.eBay and AmazonOur products are also available on Ebay and Amazon as additional sales channels. Ebay is a pretty stable income stream, but at least for us (for some unknown reason) we get more “problems” from the customers of that channel than any other - i.e saying a parcel has arrived damaged, wanting refunds etc.Amazon, on the other hand, can be a double-edged sword, indeed it creates revenue for us (we even trialled fulfilment by Amazon, which we saw an immediate increase in sales volume) however the fees (of selling but also if you opt for the Ads) tied with marketplace forces create a race to the bottom which ultimately destroyed most of our margin. I have seen with my own eyes that when Amazon sees a product selling quickly - they begin stocking that product or even a competitor's similar product which is not good longer term for any small business solely relying on that channel.In our particular circumstance - where we need every penny to buy more stock - it seemed stupid to give all of our profit to Amazon, so we made a decision to increase our prices on Amazon to maintain margin - which reduced sales but we are comfortable with.How are you doing today and what does the future look like?We are quite positive about the current and future outlook of mugpods, our revenue is still increasing but (as you would expect) now starting to slow its growth - which in turn is having a knock on effect to not needing to increase stock at the levels we were, building up cash for the first time.With the increased capital we are now beginning to re-invest this in products and are very pleased to be launching biodegradable pods and pouches within the next 6 months. In addition to this we are now looking at creating custom labelling (also known as white label) all of our products to truly position mugpods as its own brand.We are particularly pleased that September to December 2018 was our biggest on record in terms of visitors to our website, units shipped and revenue - with over 50,000 sessions to our website as shown below.Through starting the business, have you learned anything particularly helpful or advantageous?We would definitely recommend tackling “best practice” things early on, and avoid anything manual.For example at the beginning we did not have an SSL certificate on our website, but moving from http:// to https:// actually caused us quite a lot of problems, the same as originally we manually created labels for our parcels - but months later this was taking us hours whereas now we use API’s to automatically generate them.As already mentioned, having an understanding of your own countries laws from product import to taxes we would highly recommend you get right from the beginning.What platform/tools do you use for your business?Prestashop - open source ecommerce platform. Although there are some frustrations with it around getting support with modules (that you pretty much are guaranteed you have to buy from 3rd parties) I have always liked the fact it is hosted on our website and I can physically change any aspect in the code unlike other cloud based platforms such as Shopify.Mailchimp - for newsletters and various automated promotions based on past spend/orders.Reviews.io - for automated review collection and those all important Google stars.Zenstores - to combine and generate shipping labels (I believe this is UK only).Facebook, Google, Bing Ads.What have been the most influential books, podcasts, or other resources?I enjoy listening to the wired podcast to keep up to date with what's going on in the world of tech.The four hour work week by Tim Ferris - not because of the idea of not working many hours from a beach, but I enjoyed the insight into driving efficiency and automation.Shoe Dog by Phil Knight - a really interesting story about the beginning of Nike and how it grew to the multi billion business it is today.Advice for other entrepreneurs who want to get started or are just starting out?I think Mugpods has proven that there are still plenty of opportunities that in our case thousands of other people thought about, but we were the first to go and do it, so if you have an idea - research it as fast as possible, work out your costs and commit.The above being said, the moment we realised we were onto something - we ran out of cash. I would recommend you do everything in your power to make sure you have enough capital to launch - but also make sure you have some capital available for unforeseen problems and growth.After that, operational efficiency is then your key to scale - remove anything manual/time consuming as fast as possible.Where can we go to learn more?Website - https://mugpods.comEmail - [email protected] you have any questions or comments, drop a comment below!Liked this text interview? Check out the full interview with photos, tools, books, and other data.Interested in sharing your own story? Send me a PM

#/r/entrepreneur #reddit

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toomanysinks · 6 years ago

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Can there be too much competition between startups?

Competition is the core of capitalism. Competition between companies lowers prices — on average — and ensures that they are forced to innovate lest they lose their markets to others. Competition between workers ensures that people strive to do their best work lest their jobs go to more qualified or faster or cheaper replacements.

Obviously, there is a spectrum here from lethargic monopoly to cutthroat competition that causes more problems than it’s worth (environmental damage in the hopes of cutting costs, fraud, deceit, etc.). Drawing that line though is really, really hard though, and there are unfortunately not many non-academic discussions of how much competition is needed to spur innovation.

You’re reading the Extra Crunch Daily. Like this newsletter? Subscribe for free to follow all of our discussions and debates.

So it was surprising to read an entire chapter about this dilemma comparing China and the U.S. in Kai-Fu Lee’s book AI Superpowers (yes, yes, I am dreadfully behind on this particular book review).

While the book is about AI, Lee is trying to undo American conceptions of Chinese innovation early on in the text. Yes, the country was once a copycat haven, but that has changed as the learnings of copying have led to originality:

The first act of copying didn’t turn into an anti-innovation mentality that its creator could never shake. It was a necessary steppingstone on the way to more original and locally tailored technology products.

In his narrative, American (tech) companies didn’t fail in China because they were incompetent, but rather because they never made the effort to localize:

American public companies tend to treat international markets as cash cows, sources of bonus revenue to which they are entitled by virtue of winning at home. […] American companies treat China like just any other market to check off their global list. They don’t invest the resources, have the patience, or give their Chinese teams the flexibility needed to compete with China’s world-class entrepreneurs.

China’s entrepreneurs didn’t just learn how to build products quickly from their early copying, but also learned that they had to ferociously compete for markets:

The sheer density of competition and willingness to drive prices down to zero forced companies to iterate: to tweak their products and invent new monetization models, building robust businesses with high walls that their copycat competitors couldn’t scale.

Lee’s ultimate point is that by focusing on markets instead of mission, Chinese startups move far faster and more aggressively to seize opportunities. But that also means that there are can be thousands of startups all targeting the same market at the same time, which forces outside-the-box (read: quite possibly unethical or illegal) behavior in order to compete. “For these gladiators, no dirty trick or underhanded maneuver was out of bounds. They deployed tactics that would make Uber founder Travis Kalanick blush.”

I’ve talked a number of times about the “Chinese think Palo Alto is dumpy” problem. But it bears repeating: competition is the key to a startup ecosystem. Competition forces founders to move faster, to hire quicker, to make product decision with alacrity and otherwise to win their markets today and not a year from now. The best founders in Silicon Valley founders understand this, although this secret seems to be increasingly lost today.

History, of course repeats. Just yesterday, it was revealed that Chinese caffeine chain Luckin Coffee received a $200 million loan from investment banks in prep for an IPO. From Julie Zhu and Kane Wu at Reuters:

The firm officially launched its business only in January last year and in July raised $200 million in its maiden funding round that valued it at $1 billion, making it one of the fastest-ever firms to make the ‘unicorn’ milestone.

[…]

The loss-making firm has been expanding at breakneck speed with over 2,000 cafes opened and plans to open 2,500 this year – displacing Starbucks as China’s largest coffee chain in the process.

15 months and larger than Starbucks. That’s speed, and that’s how you compete.

Digging into the S1: Jumia IPO has points for praise and pause

PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP/Getty Images

Written by Arman Tabatabai

Jumia grabbed headlines yesterday after the African e-commerce player filed for an IPO on the NYSE. Our writer Jake Bright covered the news and provided insightful context around Jumia’s business model, its footprint, and the state of e-commerce in Africa.

With Jumia en route to becoming Africa’s first public tech company listed abroad, we dug into the company’s S-1 to get a better understanding of all its moving parts. Generally, the story is pretty compelling: Jumia is one of the largest pan-Africa e-commerce businesses with a large and rapidly growing active user base that is positively levered at Africa’s economic development and mobile adoption.

While the company is burning cash and losing hundreds of millions of dollars each year, that’s hardly uncommon anymore. But one area that gave me pause was the company’s margin breakdown.

To measure the economics and operating performance of the company’s core operations, Jumia uses “platform contribution,” a metric it defines as gross profit — excluding revenue from services outside the core platform — subtracted by fulfillment costs from third-party logistics providers, primarily related to freight and shipping. Using this metric, Jumia’s platform contribution was about 9-11% of sales in 2017-18.

However, Jumia’s metric excludes fulfillment and delivery costs associated with Jumia’s network of warehouses, their fulfillment employees, and other related expenses, with the logic being that these costs are fairly flat year-to-year and less indicative of the variable costs of the business. However, as an e-commerce logistics and delivery provider, the unaccounted for fulfillment costs seem at least relevant, if not core.

If we were to include all Jumia’s fulfillment expenses in the calculation, Jumia’s platform contribution would actually be negative 5-11% in 2017-18. While thin to negligible margins aren’t unusual for scaling e-commerce platforms, Jumia’s margins fall short of levels seen in past prospectuses from some of the e-commerce giants Jumia looks up to. Amazon, Alibaba, and even JD.com all had at least a year of positive margins including total fulfillment costs at the time of their S-1s. (Though to be fair here, none of the three companies are apples-to-apples comps — Amazon’s S-1 was decades ago, Alibaba operated on a completely different scale at the time of its IPO, and JD.com used a different model focused on direct sales).

Still, the numbers here are just a little unnerving within the context of Africa’s previous e-commerce failures, as discussed by Jake Bright:

“Jumia’s move to go public comes as several notable consumer digital sales startups have faltered in Nigeria…

…In late 2018, Nigerian online sales platform DealDey shut down. And TechCrunch reported this week that consumer-focused venture Gloo.ng has dropped B2C e-commerce altogether to pivot to e-procurement. The CEO cited better unit economics from B2B sales.

Jumia also competes with services backed by Amazon and Naspers in several of its markets, which can be daunting when competing on economics.

The other disclosure that had me harping on Jumia’s fulfillment expense was in the “Risk Factors” section, where the company highlighted that it operates in markets with under-developed physical, economic, legal, and institutional infrastructure. And while there’s heavy investment going into African infrastructure — which could act as a growth tailwind for Jumia in the long-run — improving, let alone creating, infrastructure takes much longer than doing the same in normal business operations, as we’ve discussed ad nauseam.

Because of the lack of infrastructure, Jumia openly discusses the difficulties of delivery and stable fulfillment in its markets and has had to build out a lot of operational infrastructure itself. To me, it at least raises questions around how quickly Jumia will be able to get its cost structure down and whether it might take a bit longer compared to some of its global e-commerce peers.

Thanks

To every member of Extra Crunch: thank you. You allow us to get off the ad-laden media churn conveyor belt and spend quality time on amazing ideas, people, and companies. If I can ever be of assistance, hit reply, or send an email to [email protected].

This newsletter is written with the assistance of Arman Tabatabai from New York

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source https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/14/can-there-be-too-much-competition-between-startups/

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