#westerosi economic policy

[racefortheironthrone]

If the King/Queen of Westeros decided to implement a national bank of Westeros, how would they navigate relationships with the Iron Bank and any perceived competition? Thinking of the same way that the Rogare Bank might have fallen to Faceless Man assassinations?

I would personally recommend a more cooperative policy, because there are definite ways that a Westerosi central bank could be of benefit to the Iron Bank - especially since central banks don't tend to compete with merchant or commercial banks for the same kind of business.

To begin with, the existence of a central bank acting as lender of last resort to Westerosi moneylenders and merchants is going to be good for the Iron Bank's business in Westeros, because that's going to massively reduce the risk of default, which would mean the Iron Bank's loans would see a higher rate of return even at lower interest rates, and likely would lead to an increased volume of business, as more people would be able to afford to take out loans from the Iron Bank.

If the Westerosi central bank is anything like the central banks of Early Modern Europe, it might be quite possible that the Iron Bank would become a minority shareholder in the Westerosi central bank, and quite likely would be one of the central bank's major customers when it comes to the sale of royal bonds - if only because the existence of a central bank would make Westerosi public debt a much sounder investment than under the medieval model.

[thevelaryons]

What do you think the Velaryon’s trading looked like during the Corlys’ peak time as Lord of the Tides?

House Velaryon became rather “isolated” from the Crown’s influence within a couple of years after Corlys became the head of the family (due to their conflicting political aims from Jaehaerys and later, Viserys). So I think Corlys would’ve focused more on trade with Essos over Westeros. While trade with Westeros would still exist, it would be to a lesser degree than with Essos, and I believe Corlys would’ve encouraged trade in Westerosi port towns other than King’s Landing (White Harbor/Gulltown/Oldtown/Lannisport). He definitely wouldn’t want to provide direct economical support to the royal family he’s at odds with.

Driftmark is already conveniently situated in spot where many ships pass through. The book suggests that Corlys merely took advantage of this by further developing the shipping ports there.

Sitting athwart the Gullet, Driftmark was closer to the narrow sea than Duskendale or King’s Landing, so Spicetown soon began to usurp much of the shipping that would elsewise have made for those ports, and House Velaryon grew ever richer and more powerful.

Not only that, but I think it’s likely Corlys would maintain the same tax policy as his grandfather, which would help to build wealth in the long run (Corlys doesn’t really need to worry about building short term wealth at this point since he’s already so rich).

Port fees were tripled, certain goods were to be taxed both coming into and out of the city, and new levies were asked of innkeeps and builders.

None of these measures had the desired effect of filling up the treasury vaults. Instead building slowed to a halt, the inns emptied, and trade declined notably as merchants diverted their ships from King’s Landing to Driftmark, Duskendale, Maidenpool, and other ports where they might evade taxation.

If Driftmark is not charging the same tax rate as King’s Landing, it diverts even more trade away from the royal family and towards house Velaryon.

It is actually stated that King’s Landing wasn’t seeing as much profit from trade as Driftmark.

So much trade came to flow to and from Driftmark that the towns of Hull and Spicetown sprang up, becoming the chief ports of trade in Blackwater Bay for a time, surpassing even King’s Landing.

Any ships coming in from Essos would be more likely to make port at Driftmark just because it’s closer and because there might be advantages in place, such as lower taxes.

Corlys also gave priority to the shipping lanes in the Narrow Sea as well, especially when the Triarchy took power in the Stepstones. He was obviously concerned with the loss of profits through trade going to and from Essos.

Of themselves the isles were of little worth, but placed as they were, they controlled the sea lanes to and from the narrow sea, and merchant ships passing through those waters were often preyed on by their inhabitants. […] Order had replaced chaos, and if the Three Daughters demanded a toll of any ship passing through their waters, that seemed a small price to pay to be rid of the pirates. The avarice of Craghas Crabfeeder and his partners in conquest soon turned feelings against them, however; the toll was raised again, and yet again, soon becoming so ruinous that merchants who had once paid gladly now sought to slip past the galleys of the Triarchy as once they had the pirates. […] Of all the lords of Westeros, none suffered so much from these practices as Corlys Velaryon, Lord of the Tides, whose fleets had made him as wealthy and powerful as any man in the Seven Kingdoms. The Sea Snake was determined to put an end to the Triarchy’s rule over the Stepstones.

Since Corlys originally betrothed his daughter to the son of the Sealord of Braavos (a city known for its seafaring culture which includes trade), this further adds to the idea that Corlys was more focused on trade with Essosi ports.

Though once house Velaryon reforged their relationship with the Crown, I can definitely see Corlys allowing more of the trade to go to King’s Landing.

[mneiai]

My dream for the Jon spin-off is definitely that Bran is evil and influenced everything that happened in Season 8 and Jon and co have to stop him.

The only other possibly interesting plot post-GoT I could think of that would take more than an episode to show is if they did actual time travel. lol they could reuse some of their Blood Moon ideas. Retcon GoT, even! The Jon Snow show being a secret retcon of the worst parts of GoT would actually be hilarious. Like Jon wakes back on that table at the Wall having just been dead for a few days and he's in an honest to the gods time travel fix-it.

They already lost most of the mystique about the Others that the books have by having the Night King and his origin story, after all, so it's not like Jon's going to go way north and stumble into the Winter Court of the Fae Folk or whatever.

Well, okay, I guess they could keep the True North as some sort of anarchocommunist system, but have Jon increase trade with Essos and have a political/economic drama going on as some sort of tech uplift is happening, but I don't think that would appeal to most GoT watchers, despite the highly political nature of some episodes. (Also while GRRM likes to complain about not knowing Aragorn's tax policies we also...don't actually know much about Westerosi economics lol)

[ilargizuri]

What was Aragorns Tax Policy? - Or Who will sit on the Iron Throne?

I just was silenced in a nice Discussion where I pointed out that the mentioned Question in the Title is actually one hint of who will sit on the Iron Throne. I mean Martin will kind of answer this Question in his Books and when we ask this Question with his current themes in Mind, we have a pretty good start to find the final Candidates for that Cursed Chair.

So the current Problems are: 1. The Food Crisis, how will the new ruler deal with that? 2. Revenge and Blood Feuds, a lot of Lords and Ladies have bad blood between each other (after all these Wars) and will undoubtedly start Cycles of Blood Revenge and Little Wars, how will the new Ruler deal with that? 3. No Money and low on resources and Economic Partners, how will the new ruler deal with that?

So when I pointed out that Daenerys can care as much as she wants, that doesn't change the Problems: Westeros has a Food Crisis, no Resources, is low on Economic Partners and is still indebted to the Iron Bank. I painted the following Picture: Daenerys comes to Westeros with her Army, 2 or 3 Dragons, low Money and defeats the Others, her rivals for the Iron Throne and is crowned the Queen of the Seven Kingdoms. But there won't be a never-ending Summer, Seasons existed before and after the Long Night. The Land of Always Summer where Old Valyria had its Capital was because of their Geographic Location. Proof can be found in the Text when Winterfell is in deep Snow, Doran talks with Areo Hota under Orange Trees with Fruits on it. So the southern Kingdom is still warm enough for Fruits to grow on Trees. And Old Valyria was even further in the South than Dorne and had Seven active Volcanos.

So let's only discuss one of the Issues, how does Daenerys solve the Food Crisis? She has no Money and the current Economics won't give her that money because no one has any money left because of a lot of Wars. Not to mention that she has no idea about the Economics and resources of Westeros. But there is still Winter, and the People need Food, so somehow she needs to buy Food. The Iron Bank will be very cautious about Loans to Westeros after their last experience, especially with all the dead indebted Lords and their extinguished Families. So no money there and that means no food from other Countries. The easiest solution would be: Kill the Dragons for the Meat, which is exactly the kind of Question and Decision Martin likes to challenge his Characters with.

If the Dothrakis come with her, their Horses will also be sacrificed to feed the People. Which will only be a solution for a short time. Meat doesn't grow on Trees or in Glas Gardens. She could however first use her Dragons to make Glas Gardens and then feed them to the People. The question then becomes, would the Lords on the small council actually suggest that? Probably not, because they want the Dragons dead as fast as possible to take that Force away from their Queen.

So the Problem of the Food Crisis can be solved and Dragon could actually help with that, but Dragons and Armies also need Food, so Daeny comes with more Mouths to feed and no Money to buy Food, not unmanageable but difficult and the Lords will use that against her. Because Daenerys has a reputation of "freeing Slaves and killing Nobles" the Lords of Westeros will assume that Daenerys has a soft spot for the Small Folk and will try to take away her advantage which she has with Armies and Dragons. Taking away the Horses from the Dothraki and killing the Dragons for their Meat to feed the People of Westeros would be suggestions Daenerys would agree to when presented with the right words and we are talking Westerosi Lords, so not everyone is a Petyr Baelish, but they are used to persuade higher Authorities to their Will. Daenerys may be the first Queen of the seven Kingdom but she isn't the first Monarch and neither will she be the last.

A lot of people think when Daenerys sit on the Iron Throne she will strengthen the Rights of the Small Folk, possible, but before she can make these Changes she has to survive Winter and as I pointed out she needs help to manage that Country, which means she will have a small Council with Lords from Westeros who won't want a Queen with a strong Army and Dragons. Westros's position in this Winter will influence Daenerys Ending and that means she has to deal with the Food Crisis.

So when she does build Glass Gardens with the Help of her Dragons the Food must still grow in these Garden and in the Meantime, People are still starving, so the possibility of killing the Dragons for Meat won't disappear and in the end, Daenerys won't have that much of a Choice, it will weaken her position in relation with the other Lords, but I don't see another possibility.

In the End that will be the thought process behind Martin's Decision of who will sit on the Iron Throne, who is the most equipped to solve the Problems he presented to his Readers in these Books. And actually, when I go through this Thought process I sometimes end up with Littlefinger on the Iron Throne.

So I am open to suggestions, what others think when they take into consideration the Problems that are presented in these Books who is the most equipped to solve them, how and why?

[hellsbellschime]

I really want dany to come westroes because it will be reality check to her. She will realize that not everyone world revolves around her and she is not super special. Also her dealing with Martell's will bring out her racism. Then I will want to see how her stans will defend her. It will be worst in books bcoz no one will instantly fall for her and no one going to loose their braincells.

Yeah I think that she’s going to get a huge reality check when she gets to Westeros, both because she’ll realize that most people don’t consider her the heir to the throne, they definitely won’t want her to be queen, and also because she has never really run up against anyone like Euron or Jon or the Others who are actually magically powerful enough to pose a huge threat to her. 

I think that rejecting Aegon and rejecting the Martells is certainly going to come back to bite her, and I was actually watching an InDeepGeek livestream yesterday and he made a suggestion that I hadn’t thought of which made sense to me, which is a lot of Dany’s more “legitimate” Westerosi supporters like Barristan are somewhat likely to switch sides once they think that there is a legitimate male heir to Rhaegar Targaryen running around. And while I love Jon, I actually think this was a serious problem in the show as well that they never really touched on in the later seasons, which is that a lot of Dany’s support in Westeros is going to be bad. Like, Jon is probably the best she’s got, and to many people in Westeros he’s going to be a traitorous bastard son of Ned Stark. And she’ll have Tyrion, a kinslayer, and Jorah, a slaver. Literally her biggest name supporters are all people who have committed crimes that they should have been executed for, and I think it’s likely that all of the Westerosi support that she gained in the shows besides the three of them will go to Aegon as well. 

And of course, people aren’t going to suddenly fall all over themselves for her because frankly, every deal that she always offers people is horrible. It was the same way in the show, but for some reason they never acknowledged that what Dany was offering really gave the people who were supporting her very little and gave her almost all the power. And that is exactly what she’s done in Essos thus far, but because they’re a collection of city-states with a much greater power instability and less established government and cross-cultural standards, it was much easier for her to overthrow them and take the power for herself. 

She’s honestly a terrible politician who understands very little about actual policy, economics, cultural standards, and everything that everyone needs to know in order to rule effectively. And ironically as a result of the original Targaryen invasion, Westeros now has hundreds of years of working together as one country under their belt, so it’s going to be even tougher to invade. As a result of that forced unity, there are a lot more connections across the kingdoms, and their cultures share a lot more in common with one another than what they once did. It’s actually hilarious, because GRRM has basically already set Dany up to do everything wrong when she invades Westeros. She’s going to bring a fuckton of people, have zero support, and she’ll be going up against someone who is going to be perceived as having the rightful claim over her (if anyone even wants to acknowledge a Targaryen claim to the throne, which is fucking dubious). It seems incredibly obvious that she’s about to make things into a shitshow and I’m already baffled that so many of her stans are in denial about it, but I think it’s going to become undeniably obvious soon enough.  

[thundersnowstorm]

oooh what are some of your other modern au hcs about rhaenys? 👀👀 (i love her and i love all your aus about her so i am always v ready to hear more)

I HAVE SO MANY but here’s some of the main ones:

rhaenys spends her early years on dragonstone, until rhaegar decides to be a dick and have an affair with a college student, upon which elia divorces his ass and takes the kids to live in sunspear.

it’s a pretty good childhood, all things considered, and being in sunspear means rhaenys gets to avoid a good chunk of the Targaryen Family Drama™. she and aegon see rhaegar for the holidays and during the summers, which is always. ah. interesting.

there’s always a martell cousin around to hang out with as she’s growing up, and it sometimes feels like having ten other siblings. there’s always someone to go shopping with, someone fighting with someone, someone to teach her how to do her hair, someone to babysit, anything. it’s a little bit chaotic at times and rhaenys wouldn’t trade it for the world.

balerion is a gift from rhaegar in an attempt to apologize for the affair and divorce. it doesn’t quite work as he intends, but rhaenys does end up loving that kitten fiercely. he lives to be approximately a thousand years old, is very mean, and hisses at everyone except for rhaenys, whom he will fight anyone for.

she changes her name to rhaenys martell when she’s old enough. partly because the targaryens are a rather notorious family and partly because beyond her brothers and dany, she doesn’t really care to be associated with the targaryen name.

(aerys is a retired politician who was notoriously corrupt and awful and only got kicked out of office thanks to a scandal with some pyromaniac cult. rhaegar is a semi-famous musician who’s like if ed sheeran were worse and also obsessed with the apocalypse. the targaryen name is rather infamous these days.)

she and sarella go to college together, where sarella studies pre-med and rhaenys studies political science and economics. sarella intends to cure greyscale. rhaenys intends to fix the westerosi economy. their college experience is more studying than partying.

her exercise of choice is kickboxing, thanks to some initial lessons from oberyn. she tried for a few months to get into running, before deciding that running was a morning person’s exercise. rhaenys is not a morning person.

rhaenys dates margaery tyrell, a fellow polisci major, for a while. they have a great time together, and ultimately decide that although they could potentially rule the world together, they might kill each other before that happens, and part on semi-amicable terms.

she loves sour candies. if it tastes roughly like a lemon dipped in sugar, she will eat it.

rhaenys goes to law school after college, because why not. she ends up at a college in riverrun, which also happens to have a very good veterinary program

robb stark is studying to become a vet. you see where i’m going with this.

i have several conflicting headcanons for how robb and rhaenys meet, but anyway, that happens around this point. they have heard of each other in very vague terms via jon, and it takes them a while to realize the shared connection. by then, they’re both very into each other, and decide that jon can just learn to deal with it.

i have no idea how long cats live and i don’t really care, because balerion and grey wind absolutely meet each other. they don’t like each other, but they eventually reach a detente when robb and rhaenys make it clear to them that cohabitation is gonna happen whether they like it or not.

whenever she’s not in sunspear, rhaenys talks to her mom on the phone minimum twice a week.

rhaenys doesn’t particularly like heels but she’s a shortie, so sacrifices must be made sometimes.

rhaenys ends up working as an advisor on economic issues for some politician. she’s not much interested in being an elected official herself, but she enjoys the nitty gritty of policy writing and organizing backroom deals. she can be a little bit ruthless about it all sometimes. it’s a good thing her plans for the world are generally positive.

rhaenys drinks her coffee black and yes she does this as a power move.

[thefudge]

Listen to any speech that Daenerys talks about being Queen in. She talks about how she was born to rule, it’s her birthright, she’s her father’s heir, etc. That’s not being elected a ruler. She’s not allowing a chose to be made there. Her people didn’t chose her, she’s telling them what to think.

the problem with what you’re saying is that 

a) 90% of her followers know squat about mad king aerys or the targaryen legacy or westerosi politics, so she absolutely could not win people over just by ranting off her titles and birthright. yes, she is always introduced with the titles and regalia (which include titles both in westeros and essos) because dany has to hold her head high and adopt a “fake it till you make it” policy when it comes to slaver’s bay, she has to look fearless and command respect. i do think in time she becomes too attached to the idea of “legacy” and her responsibilities as a targaryen conqueror (this is part of her story arc in the books) but every other character is almost as obsessed with roots and family inheritance. inter-generational trauma is important in asoiaf. to say, however, that the people only followed her because she made the choice for them is…extremely odd. again, nothing regarding her legacy would persuade ppl from essos to bow down to her. they’d sooner laugh at a young girl saying she’s the last bastion of a once glorious dynasty.  there are many exiles in essos who would claim the same thing. i’d more likely accept the argument that some of her followers want to ingratiate themselves with her because they know she has power or out of fear of her dragons. but the ppl who claim her as their queen do not really give a rat’s ass whose daughter she is, imo

b) dany’s speeches in private to her friends and counselors are about what is expected of her in westeros, precisely because she knows birthright is so important in westeros. she wants to appear to the westerosi as a legitimate heir and yes, she feels that this is her due, just as stannis, for instance, feels it is his due (both in birthright and might) to become ruler of the seven kingdoms. whether one is more deserving than the other isn’t the point. the point is that this rhetoric is not singular to dany at all. you can criticize both these people’s sense of entitlement from a doylist perspective (because we as readers know more about the state of things than both dany and stannis) but from a watsonian standpoint, nothing here screams “bad news”. dany’s speeches to her freed people in public, however, have little or nothing to do with her birthright and much more to do with her plan of liberation. like any good leader, she asks them to share in her future glory. of course she is persuasive. to these ppl she seems like the only good alternative. in that regard, you could say they have “no choice” but that’s a really oblique way of looking at it. almost like saying “guess they had no choice but to choose being free from bondage”. and even so, it’s not dany’s fault that in this world, she is the best choice. also, she clearly tells the unsullied that she will only accept those who want to follow her by choice and that the rest are free to leave and do as they like. in fact, some of her problems in mereen revolve around ex-slaves wanting to sell themselves back into slavery due to economic and social unrest. now that you could lay at dany’s feet (aka her political mismanagement) but not her forcing ppl into following her.

i do think that dany’s growing sense of aggrandizement will have consequences and will be handled much better in the books, but the important and interesting thing about dany is that the hype is actually real. that’s what makes her impending tragedy that more effective. many ppl genuinely do want to follow her and see her as their ticket for change. she’s not just a head figure followed out of a sense of cynical, mercenary intent. again, this is what makes the fall heavier when it comes. 

[sayruq]

honestly i think dany would be awful to the smallfolk

Without a doubt. I mean let’s look at it closely:

Lhazareen people - attacked and sold into slavery

Astapor - high born boys under 12 were enslaved. A large part of the population followed her and she didn’t have a plan beyond letting them eat the countryside dry. The Unsullied’s freedom is dubious at best

Freed the Yunkai slaves on the urging of the Unsullied after taking gold from the masters and then leaving the city untouched allowing it to seek revenge on the defenseless Astapor

Sacks Meereen and decides to rule it after killing 163 masters

This is where Daenerys is at her most helpful to peasants when she’s using them to build an army, when she’s freeing them to motivate her army (at this point her authority over the ‘freedmen’ isn’t ironclad). At the forefront of Dany’s actions is her ambitions for the Iron Throne. She has shown multiple times a willingness to use slavery for her own good. Even freeing the Unsullied only happened because she didn’t have enough money to buy them.

Begins ruling over Meereen by taking child hostages from the masters and then giving them one concession after another. The hostages won’t be hurt, the fighting pits are opened again, she’ll marry one of them, etc

She ignores the plight of the Astapori after taking their military to avoid going to war with Yunkai while they seek out alliances against her. Worse still she makes a deal so that Astapor can be a slave city again

She forces people to work in the hot sun for hours without pay

She takes a cut of the money made when the labourers sell themselves into slavery because as horrible as the masters are, they’re better than Dany

She has no economic plan at all. The Braavosi are notoriously anti slavery and with some convincing would ally with her and yet she’ll rather waste her day taking audience from people whose problems would be solved if she just came up with policies. All because she wants to feel queenly

She seals her city against sick Astapori refugees and then sends healers without coming up with a plan to deal with a plague

Spent more time appeasing the slaver class han helping the former slaves 

This doesn’t sound like a people’s champion. She would without a doubt harm the Westerosi smallfolk the way she harmed the former slaves. Look at the problems facing the smallfolk right now, winter famine, displacement, mass murder, diseases, etc. Not only does Dany lack the competence to do anything to help them, she also lacks the will and interest. She would probably sit in the Red Keep having her titles read while offering nothing to the poor.

[empiregalaxy]

A point I hope to make during political discussions is that what works in one area or country, won’t work in another. That’s why comparative politics is important. 

Look at Russia and China. Both have long-running presidents and have sort of similar foreign policy profiles. Yet Putin couldn’t be president of China, and Xi Jinping wouldn’t fit into Russia. Different cultures, histories, expectations, and lifestyles. 

That’s why you can’t expect every country in the world to have the same economic and political behavior. That’s why Hong Kong reacts to capitalism a lot different than Venezuela. High taxes may work in Scandinavia but would be disastrous in Turkey. It’s imperative that you note the differences in culture. 

Of course, it’s perfectly okay to say ‘hey, slavery is wrong, no matter the culture.’ You’d be justified in enforcing that. But you can’t expect a single solution to multiple problems. A single key does not open multiple locks.  

Which brings me to Daenerys. What worked in Slaver’s Bay won’t work in King’s Landing. Earning people’s loyalty is different in Astapor than in Highgarden. Whilst Daenerys is victorious in her conquest of King’s Landing, her downfall is brought by Westerosi individuals such as Jon Snow and Tyrion Lannister.

Daenerys had the military strength to take on Cersei Lannister at the end of Season Six. However, she did not know her enemy well enough. To quote Sun Tzu,  

Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.

Daenerys was ill-prepared in The Crownlands, and if she was more tactful, I have no problem believing that she would have reached her goal sooner and with less of a personal cost.

[isagrimorie]

Yes thank you on your post on post Westerosi politics. I know the last season has been lambasted for the writing but I'm really interested in what comes after. What economic policies will Sansa I be exploring. I want the nitty gritty of running a whole kingdom. I also like to think that she's going to be introducing some form of the magna carta to protect the smallfolk or women from further abuse

I also surprised myself with my interest in the post-GoT Westerosi politics. It might also be the influence of Dune where the Atreides family had to deal with winning an Empire and eventually their descendants turning into a God Emperor. (’Every revolution brings with it the seeds of their own destruction’). 

But also the rebuilding of a kingdom is also pretty damned fascinating too!

Think about it with  all the debt Lannister and Baratheon Houses have and how much the other Houses owe the Iron Bank, plus all the rebuilding the Six Kingdoms, particularly Highgarden and Kings Landing has to do? The Iron Bank will be looming over the Six Kingdoms. 

The Iron Bank has lost pretty significant amounts of gold from supporting various failed causes. 

Also, looking back on the scene where Ned Stark was pretty shock at the Kingdom’s debt I think both Ned and Catelyn were pretty good money managers. Winterfell was powerful and rich but they were not super rich like the Lannisters. 

Catelyn is also a Tully so managing and budgeting finances is a skill every Tully would be born with, especially since they always have to balance between all the kingdoms arrayed on all sides. 

TLDR Bronn doesn’t know anything about business or money management, he spent money as soon as he comes to it. 

Then again, maybe an upstart bank will rise and push Iron Bank from it’s superior position. My meager (and wiki gained) knowledge of Venetian and Florence banks also pointed out that the War of Five Roses eventually wiped out the Medici’s coffers contributing to the eventual fall of the Medici. 

Because despite Cersei paying off their debts Cersei immediately took out a loan to get the Golden Company, as the planning meeting addressed in 8x05, King’s Landing was falling deeper into debt day by day. 

The Iron Bank won’t be getting any payment back from that loan and most likely, in a desperate bid to get some return of investment the Iron Bank will probably pressure the only remaining Lannister  who also happens to be the new Hand. (Seriously, way to fail up there. Keep giving terrible strategic advice and still get the second most powerful position in the land). 

Little Finger might be a terrible person but he knows how to increase revenue and invest. This is something Sansa would surely pick up too, and from my research Winterfell never borrowed anything from the Iron Bank so, yeah, stretched treasury but nothing that won’t be fixed come Spring. 

The way things are now in the United Kingdoms of Westeros (does this make the Northern Kingdom Scotland or Ireland then?) they are in a far more precarious place and it makes me curious how the regular citizen, er, small folk are taking this. Probably doesn’t care and hope the royals would stop their damned wars. 

I really think that another competing bank can emerge from this, where it would come from and which lands will be the mystery. 

As for the magna carta thing…. hmm, I know that Sansa does care and I know she’s seen what it’s like when a sovereign doesn’t care for their people but I’m not sure if she would make that leap. 

It would be interesting if someone would confront Sansa on this issue and keep pushing Sansa to her better angels as Toby Zieglar of West Wing would push Bartlet. 

Also, I would like for Sansa to have a full council back please, Stark way of governance is to have a full council with Lords and Ladies of their respective houses representing their people.

I want someone to Sansa Sansa, the way she did with Jon. Challenging and pushing him until he comes to a better decision or a better debate for his decisions, which unfortunately he never did. His one debate tactic seemed to be to repeat his position until someone roared in approval or he out stubborned them.

I want a Toby for Sansa.

Can you imagine the awesome and well, the level of grumpy and snark that would come out of this? Better if her version of Toby is a CJ too. or genderswapped Toby. 

(Yes, we have come to my dream team wish list for Team Good North Government. They won’t be perfect but they will give it a good ol’ Winterfell try. 

Again, it’s a dream team so… shhhh….). 

Also, I bet Sansa’s gonna fully implement the rule that surviving leaders of Houses or children heirs will not be permitted to fight until they are of age or have appointed other people to take over in the tragic event of their death. (Looking at you Lady Mormont. This is why, while it’s cool to have you on the field, kids eventually end up dead on a battlefield). 

Um. Did any of that rambling help or answer… 

*jazz hands* Look a three headed monkey!

Also will Arya’s journey West be the first Establishment of the… West Winterfell Trading Company? Let’s all wallow at the uncomfortable implications of that. 

(I love Arya but the implications of that traveling kind of does shade a few things into uncomfortable light). 

[racefortheironthrone]

Could the Iron Throne be able to issue bonds, to finance its expenses, instead of going to the Iron Bank for a loan?

A government issuing bonds is the same thing as the government taking out a loan. The main difference is that, in the case of issuing a bond, the government is spreading out its borrowing between many lenders by selling bonds on the open market to anyone who wants to buy them rather than having that loan owed to a single entity like the Iron Bank. This means that the government is less beholden to any one creditor and it's less likely that the government's creditors can use their economic leverage to affect government policy.

The second advantage of structuring government debt through bonds is that it allows the government to break its total borrowing needs into smaller, more affordable units. Very few financial institutions would have had the capital to finance the £1,200,000 that made up the government's inaugural loan at the Bank of England in 1690 - but a lot more people could afford to lend the government £10, £25, £50, or £100 pounds.

Between this and later innovations in marketing bonds to the general public, the market for government debt was massively expanded. Not only did this create a class of rentiers who were now personally invested in the government's success, but it also immediately deepened the capital markets by creating a large supply of stable assets that could be bought and sold and borrowed against. While some of the shortcomings of the Hamilton musical and Chernow's biography have become more obvious in hindsight, they're not wrong about the impact of Hamilton's policies as Treasury Secretary on the development of the American economy.

The difficulty facing the Iron Throne in adapting an early modern system of government finance is that it doesn't have the state capacity to run this kind of an operation: it doesn't have a central bank to act as the government's marketer, issuer of banknotes, and lender of last resort; it doesn't have a sinking fund to manage the level and price of debt; it hasn't issued charters to merchant's guilds or joint-stock companies that could combine the small capital of individuals and thus more easily afford to buy bonds; and it doesn't have enough literate people who've studied accounting to staff a royal bureaucracy large enough to coordinate and keep records of all of this economic activity.

[wee-chlo]

Instead of Bran being king, there should have been a confederacy of kingdoms with Bran as like... the high councilor of the representatives that came together to discuss national policy. Like, each kingdom could have it’s own ruler and methods by which to choose them (the more elective monarchies of the North and the Iron Islands, the more traditional monarchies of the Vale, Westerlands, and the Reach, the egalitarian principality of Dorne), but they are all united under a Westerosi confederacy, acting as a united front in terms of foreign trade and diplomacy, defense, and internal economics.

The rulers of the each kingdom could send representatives to King’s Landing, which would remain a centralized hub for Westeros and a representation of their commitment to unity after the tragedies of the War of the Five Kings, the invasion of Danaerys Targaryen, the destruction of King’s Landing and the destruction of the Iron Throne. The representatives would basically act as a combination of legislator and ambassador, representing their kingdom and their ruler and arguing in their favor with the voice of their king, queen, prince or princess. 

Representatives would need to encompass as much of the respective kingdoms as possible: While the rulers might send a representative from their own house, a younger sibling, a second child, or a favored niece, nephew, or cousin, they would also call upon their greater houses to put forward their own representatives, as well as find representatives from the tradesmen and merchant classes. This body might be the Great Council, a legislative body that discussed broader issues, such as the rights of the common folk, a unified system of law, currency, or instability in one kingdom or another that may require assistance from other kingdoms.

The Three Eyed Raven and a Small Council would continue to exist, but would not function as a ruler and their small governing body but rather as a councilor and holder of veto power. The position of the Three Eyed Raven is passed down but not necessarily hereditary, and in decisions of war and revision of laws and customs, the consent of the Three Eyed Raven is required. The Small Council is appointed by the Three Eyed Raven and acts as leadership for King’s Landing and reviewers of the Great Council’s decisions on ‘smaller scale’ issues, though their decisions can be appealed by the Great Council directly to the Three Eyed Raven themselves, should the need arise.

Obviously what qualifies as inter-kingdom issues that need to be discussed would be discussed and agreed upon beforehand, and the Three Eyed Raven would have input. But in general, things like currency, foreign diplomacy, and widescale rights would all be subject to the approval of the entire confederacy rather than being left up to a single kingdom.

Thoughts?

[princess-in-a-tower]

Hello anon and thank you for the ask! Apologies for the absurd delay and for the manner of my reply. Even though your ask and my answer are in no way anti-Ar.ya, some of her stans are a bit too sensitive when it comes to “defending” their fav and I’d rather avoid friction with them.

Ok so, now that we cleared this, I must say

Cut for length.

People who claim to love one Stark but want another Stark to die, confuse me as well, because… the Starks love each other and they have already lost so much? How can you wish more grief and suffering to befall your favorite character?

Also, becoming a king/queen is not an endgame I’d wish upon any one of my faves. Ruling is hard and it requires personal sacrifice, dedication and hard work. So I cannot understand why anyone would want it for the character they stan.

And now you may think me hypocritical for saying this while I’ve repeated time and time again that Jon and Sansa will be King and Queen in the end, but make no mistake… I don’t say this because I want it for them or because I think it will make them happy. And it’s definitely not because they want it for themselves. It is because that’s where I see their arcs heading to. It’s because this is the only satisfying and logical endgame I can see GRRM writing. It’s because I could think of no better resolution to this story…

If it were up to me, I’d rather have all the Starks live a happily ever after in Winterfell, away from politics and crowns… alas this is not where I see the story is headed.

As for Ar.ya being a Queen… I agree that her arc focuses more on the themes of justice vs vengeance, mercy vs cruelty, protecting the weak and helpless and finding her pack. Those lessons of course would be helpful to an aspiring monarch, but, despite all the queen foreshadowing she has in her chapters, she has gained no experience on Westerosi politics throughout the books, which is something I believe GRRM considers pivotal in giving his answer on “Aragorn’s tax policy”.

But, the queen foreshadowing is there and we cannot and should not ignore or dismiss it. With the information we got so far:

Queen foreshadowing.

A wolf named after the warrior queen Nymeria.

Anticonformism to the Westerosi social structure.

A wish for justice and equality.

Constant search for a pack to lead.

Certain prosecution by the Faceless Men once she flees Braavos with the intent to start giving the Many Faced God’s gift irresponsibly.

I came to the conclusion that Ar.ya is one of the most likely candidates to have a Frodo~esque kind of ending, where she will have to flee West of Westeros and become the Queen of a new land; a land of equality and justice in which the politics and socio-economic structure of Westeros will have no place, because new, better ones will be established. Think of it like the America equivalent of Westeros.

There are plenty of whats, whys, whos and hows I cannot answer though when it comes to this theory and of course I may be completely wrong about it entirely. After all, the foreshadowing in Ar.ya’s chapters is a tough nut to crack... Up until now though this is my best guess for her endgame (one I don’t particularly like, because as I said I would have preferred all the remaining Starks to live happily ever after together in Winterfell, but this is GRRM and he would literally rather die than give us good things, so… yeah, my happily ever after headcanon is not gonna happen).

[moonlitgleek]

I love your what if tag! I have a question of my own. What do you think if Ned had been born a girl?

Thank you! It’s getting more action now than ever. It appears I’ve seriously underestimated fandom’s fondness of AUs though, especially ones involving genderbend. And as I have a tendency to fall down the rabbit hole with any gives AU, my answers tend to get a tad lengthy.

Anyways, fostering, betrothals and a rebellion under the cut.

First thing that would change if Ned is a girl is his fostering in the Vale: being a girl, Eddara would not get fostered in the Vale with Jon Arryn since Westerosi girls typically only get fostered as a part of a betrothal agreement, or a hostage situation so that changes the relationships between the characters from the get go. Politically, Rickard Stark’s “southron ambitions” mean that he’d still be keen on a fostering happening, and that leaves the Lord of Winterfell with Brandon and Benjen to use as an instrument for alliance via fostering. On the surface, Brandon might be an obvious choice as his age would make him a natural companion to Robert (and presumably, Elbert Arryn) which makes for a neat and strong personal alliance between the three future rulers, but it seems that Rickard was cognizant IOTL of the importance of fostering his heir in the North so that Brandon could get to know the land he would rule someday and establish relationships with his future bannermen. Certainly, with the Northners’ innate wariness of southron influence and culture, Rickard, already of a mind to betroth his heir to the south as a part of a multi-kingdom alliance, might figure that having that same heir fostered in the south–particularly in the Vale, the historical center of Andal invasion and culture–would be too provoking for his bannermen and might lead to Brandon being viewed as too southron and an almost stranger to the people he would rule over. A second son would be a much less aggravating choice in that context and limit the chances of the Northern lords growing disgruntled by the rule of a southron-leaning Winterfell. Now, note that Benjen would be too young to be sent to the Vale at the same date as canon!Ned (Ned was fostered at 8 so Ben would be 3 if not younger), but there is no reason for Rickard not to send him to be a page once he hits the appropriate age. A slight complication might present itself in the (at least) six years age gap between Ben and Robert which might not initially allow for the easy camaraderie Robert and Ned enjoyed IOTL, but with Jon Arryn encouraging a relationship between the two, and perhaps even setting Ben to squire for Robert at tourneys and such, they can still build a personal relationship to be a cornerstone of the Stark-Baratheon alliance.

Next up, the SA betrothals. I do not know if Robert’s relationship with Ben would necessarily lead him to propose the match to Lyanna the way his friendship with Ned did (that is if Ben is fostered in the Vale, and Rickard does not pull a Hoster Tully and opt for just marriage alliances.) If there is no Ned to grow up with Robert as his chosen brother or to talk about his beloved siblings and likeable family or to show Robert the close familial bond the Starks share, would Robert still propose the betrothal to Lyanna? I imagine that Jon Arryn would certainly encourage Robert to make a match within the slowly-forming Southron Ambitions bloc, and while Lysa Tully is also an advantageous option for the young Lord of Storm’s End that would serve the bloc’s interests just as well, Hoster Tully evidently had his eyes on a match with Jaime Lannister, though we do not know how far back he had that match in mind. Perhaps, as Jon Arryn might figure, it would be a better idea to direct Robert to the Starks and leave Lysa free for the planned betrothal with Jaime that gives the bloc an additional strategic, economic and military advantage. Certainly, the match between Robert and a Stark would also seem like a natural choice if young Ben is indeed squiring in the Vale which makes Robert’s existing relationship with him a good stepping stone for a betrothal to reaffirm the Stark-Baratheon relationship.

The main question here, however, is which Stark daughter the match would be for. I do not believe that Robert’s “love” for Lyanna was because of her personality or beauty or anything to do with her, as much as it was about his desire to be Ned’s brother, so there is nothing in particular that would point to Lyanna specifically. Eddara, as the eldest, might seem like an obvious choice, perhaps preferable for Rickard as well since her age in 279 - the earliest possible date for the Robert-Lyanna betrothal IOTL - could allow a marriage to happen much sooner than Lyanna whose age necessitated for the marriage to wait a couple of years if Rickard did not wish to jeopardize her ability to produce children to support the generational alliance planned for years between the kingdoms. On the other hand, would Eddara even be unpromised in 279? She’d be 16, hardly an ancient age for a Westerosi maiden to be unbetrothed but still atypical, especially if we consider that Rickard betrothed Brandon at 14 and Lyanna at 12 IOTL. I’m not discounting that possibility that she might though: Rickard, clearly ambitious for his children’s marriage prospective and keen to use their hands to reaffirm his alliances, would wait for the most advantageous match for his eldest daughter (he would not be the first Lord Paramount to do so: look at Tywin keeping Cersei’s hand free after the rejection from Aerys, or Mace Tyrell dangling Willas’ hand) so with two eligible bachelors among the bloc’s conspirators, he’d probably keep his daughters’ hands free to score the greatest possible match.

But this is where the unknown variable of Elbert Arryn factors in. We have no knowledge of what Jon Arryn’s marital plans for his nephew were, how old Elbert was, or if he was betrothed when he died IOTL or not. It’s definitely weird that we do not hear about Elbert being involved in the SA’s betrothals since Jon Arryn had no horse in the marital race, and Elbert was the heir to the Eyrie and to a line hard-pressed for male heirs in the main line. Was that because there was no bride to match with him IOTL with Catelyn, Lyanna and (supposedly) Lysa being spoken for? Did Jon Arryn simply have his eyes on a grander match for his nephew, Cersei perhaps? It’s hard to say for sure but for the purpose of this ask, one has to wonder: wouldn’t he be an obvious match for one of the Stark daughters? A Stark-Arryn match would nicely reaffirm the alliance between the two Great Houses and create a neat web of intra-bloc marriages while still leaving one Stark daughter available for a betrothal to Robert (which was perhaps the most important betrothal in the bloc since Robert’s closeness to the throne made him a cross between an insurance policy, and a proverbial knife that could be held to the main Targaryen line’s throat) That marital design would certainly appeal to the ambitious Rickard Stark as it gives him ties to three Lords Paramount, and a future in which his grandchildren would rule the North, the Vale and the Stormlands with kin ruling the Riverlands. It’s quite the fruitful design, and while it might be pushing the Northern bannermen a bit too much imho, Rickard might figure it is worth it. After all, he’d still have Benjen to marry to the North to smooth any ruffled feathers from his disgruntled vassals, and the Northern-raised Brandon would certainly be encouraged to capitalize on the connections he made during his own fostering at Barrowton.

The difficulty here is that we don’t know how old Elbert was or if Jon Arryn would seek to betroth him before 279. Perhaps he’d prefer to keep Elbert unbetrothed to seek the most advantageous possible match, or Robert would propose the match with the Starks first, or Rickard would not consent to marrying both daughters to the south. Bottom line, we might be looking at an Elbert-Eddara and a Robert-Lyanna match, or Robert-Eddara and Elbert-Lyanna, or Robert-Eddara and Lyanna-Nothern son if Rickard decides that fostering his “spare” and betrothing his three other children to the south could lead to unwanted discord in the North.

Regardless of how the betrothals go, I do not believe they would alter the events of Harrenhal: it does not matter whether Lyanna was betrothed to Robert, to Elbert, to a Northerner or even unbetrothed; she’d still defend Howland’s honor as the Knight of the Laughing Tree and almost certainly get discovered by Rhaegar leading to her crowning. While a betrothal to Robert or Elbert would mean that Rhaegar’s actions poses an insult to two Great Houses instead of one and jeopardizes the marital alliance, the insult to House Stark and Lyanna’s honor alone would still reverberate within the entire bloc. Similarly, I do not think the identity of her betrothed would change the outcome of Lyanna meeting with Rhaegar, namely her disappearance with him. Even if Lyanna was not driven by her desire to avoid a marriage to Robert, or if she wanted to refuse Rhaegar, I sincerely doubt that Rhaegar would take no for an answer. He was set on having the third head of the dragon from Lyanna, and he was not going to politely turn around and go back to Dragonstone or simply find another woman to impregnate if Lyanna refused him. I can not stress enough how utterly vulnerable Lyanna was in that situation, alone and faced by the crown prince and two Kingsguard sworn to protect him - and easily capable of simply forcing her if she’d said no. Ultimately, I do not think Lyanna giving or withholding consent would have changed the outcome of her being whisked away to Dorne and Brandon riding to his death in King’s Landing. The only thing that I can see changing the outcome of that is if Lyanna’s location changes in this au for whatever reason but I’d be getting too ficcy if I tackle that.

From there on out, some things would remain the same, and some would be unknown. The rebellion is inevitable once Aerys executes the two Starks, Royces, Mallisters, and Elbert Arryn. Ben’s age and status as the last surviving male Stark means he’d surely be counseled not to take the field himself lest he dies and House Stark dwindles to Eddara, though whether he’d heed that counsel or insist on riding to war himself is speculative. The marriage to Catelyn would definitely still happen because Hoster Tully is not giving up on making his daughter the Lady of Winterfell, but I wonder about the Jon Arryn\Lysa match. If Elbert was matched with Eddara, they might get married and perhaps even conceive prior to his death. Honestly, where would Eddara even be at the time? Winterfell? Riverrun? The Vale? Is she married? Was she on her way to be married at Riverrun in a double wedding? Was she left behind as the Stark in Winterfell? Was she with Lyanna when Rhaegar fell upon them? Who the hell knows. But one place she wouldn’t be is the field. Which raises the question of what would happen when the information about Lyanna being in Dorne arrives.

No, scratch that, would the information even arrive in time? Would it arrive at all? Because even if Ben is indeed on the field, he would not be the one given the command to proceed from the Trident to King’s Landing, or to lift the siege of Storm’s End. We don’t even know when or how Ned received that info IOTL, but we do know that he stormed out of King’s Landing the same day of Robert’s arrival after fighting with him over the murder of Princess Elia and her children, and he arrived only a short time before Lyanna died. A single day could end up making a lot of difference in what happens next. And if we assume that the timing of everything was precise and Ben does receive the information in time, would he proceed like Ned and make for Dorne with only that small band of companions or have a little more men? Would he survive the fight with the Kingsguard? Would others besides Howland?Would Ben have the same reaction as Ned and claim Jon as his own bastard? Would he bring him to Winterfell or entrusts him to Howland? It’s impossible to say so I’ll leave that one to fic writers.

[benrleeusa]

[Ilya Somin] What Elizabeth Warren Gets Wrong About Daenerys Targaryen

Daenerys Targaryen (played by Emilia Clarke).

Massachusetts Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren is a big fan of Game of Thrones character Daenerys Targaryen. So am I! It's one of the few things Warren and I have in common (other than support for marijuana legalization, a love of golden retrievers, and both having been law professors). Still, I have several bones to pick with this recent article Warren wrote in praise of the Dragon Queen. Dany is a lot more problematic than Warren suggests—sometimes in ways that reveal flaws in Warren's own worldview.

Before reading further, you should know the rest of this post contains spoilers for Game of Thrones. Yes, SPOILERS. Those who dare complain about the spoilers despite being duly warned will suffer a dire fate similar to that of the Dragon Queen's enemies: Dracarys!

Back to Warren and Daenerys:

Warren writes that Daenerys "doesn't want to be a slave owner or a dictator—and she definitely doesn't want to become her murderous father." One of these things is not like the others. It's too her credit that Daenerys opposes slavery, and has in fact freed many thousands of slaves during her time raising any army on the continent Essos. She isn't called the Breaker of Chains for nothing.  She also has a genuine desire to avoid repeating the horrific errors of her father,  "Mad King" Aerys.

But Daenerys pretty clearly does want to be a "dictator."As she herself notes in the most recent episode of the final season of Game of Thrones, the "one goal" of her life has been to retake the Iron Throne of Westeros. She doesn't seem to have any objection to the vast scope of powers of monarch's powers (it's an absolute monarchy), nor does she believe that the legitimacy of her claim to the throne is dependent on the will of the people. To the contrary, she's more than willing to use heavyhanded coercion to force resisters to "bend the knee." She also rules as a despot during her time governing the territories she conquers in Essos (though somewhat less so in the books by George R.R. Martin than in the HBO show based on them).

Perhaps Daenerys cannot be blamed too much for this. Almost everyone in Westeros favors authoritarianism of one kind or another. The cities of Essos are ruled by narrow oligarchies. But Dany is not an exception to the dominant worldview of her society in this respect. Moreover, she clearly does have a strong love of power, even though she is often able to impose some restraint on the selfish impulses that stem from it.

Warren is right to point out that Dany says she wants to "break the wheel" rather than just continue the same old struggle for power that has devastated Westerosi society. But it's also true she seems to have no notion that doing so requires institutional change, not merely replacing a bad monarch with a good one (preferably herself). I discuss this flaw in her thinking (another she shares with nearly all the other characters on the show) here:

Unlike most of the other rulers we see in the series, Daenerys has at least some genuine interest in improving the lot of ordinary people…

Nonetheless, it is not clear whether Daenerys has any plan to prevent future oppression and injustice other than to replace the current set of evil rulers with a better one: herself. The idea of "breaking the wheel" implies systemic institutional reform, not just replacing the person who has the dubious honor of planting his or her rear end on the Iron Throne in King's Landing. If Daenerys has any such reforms in mind, it is hard to say what they are.

Daenerys most recently restated her desire to break the wheel in episode 4 of season 7, when she announced it to a group of captured enemy soldiers. Immediately afterwards, she proceeded to execute two of the prisoners, Lord Randyll Tarly and his son Dickon, because they refused to swear allegiance to her. Daenerys orders one of her dragons to burn them to death.

Lord Tarly is a far from sympathetic character, one who has committed significant injustices…. Nonetheless, this is an example of Daenerys ordering a brutal execution of prisoners without any due process, primarily because they refused to "bend the knee" to her…. Life and death are still decided by the word of the king or queen, with no institutional safeguard against the abuse of such arbitrary power.

Daenerys' indifference to the need for institutional constraints on government power is, to a great degree, shared by Elizabeth Warren herself.  The latter advocates policies that would massively expand government power  over the economy and society, and over online speech, while imposing few if any new institutional constraints.

Warren's shortcomings in this respect are much less excusable than Daenerys'. Unlike the Dragon Queen, Warren has the benefit of centuries of political and economic theory outlining the need to impose limits on government power and explaining how it can be done.

Warren praises Daenerys' recognition of the threat to humanity from the zombie-like White Walkers and willingness to prioritize it over her personal goal of taking the Iron Throne. The praise is partly justified.  But in the most recent episode of GOT, Dany says she made this decision out of love for Jon Snow, the King of the North, who urges her to deal with the Night Walkers first. Making this sacrifice out of love for her new boyfriend is not quite the same thing as doing it out of a sense of duty to the people of Westeros (though, in fairness, the latter is probably not completely absent). One wonders whether Dany would have made the same decision if she was not attracted to Jon.

Finally, Warren is also right to note that Dany is a much better person, with more admirable motives, than Cersei Lannister, the current occupant of the Iron Throne. But that is damning with faint praise. It is a little like saying Warren herself deserves credit for being a better person than Donald Trump.  She is. But Trump and Cersei are ridiculously low standards of comparison.

Despite her flaws, I still think that Dany is probably the least bad plausible contender for the Iron Throne (assuming the institution of the monarchy continues). Jon Snow, the understandable favorite of many fans, is—to my mind—disqualified by his egregious incompetence as a political and military leader. In that sense, Warren is right to cheer Daenerys' bid for the throne. But, ultimately, we would do better to place our faith in institutional constraints on government power rather than in seemingly heroic leaders—or in politicians who promise to solve all our problems if only we bend the knee.

UPDATE: Reason's Robby Soave has some related thoughts on Warren and Game of  Thrones here.

[racefortheironthrone]

For the Iron Throne, how would you create a distinction between the Royal Household and Crown finances..

Chiefly, through administrative changes.

What you need is to have something like the King's Steward from the MUSH or the IRL Lord Steward who is in charge of the finances of the royal household and the monarch's private incomes, while the Master of Coins' portfolio is redesigned to be in charge of the finances of the royal government and tax revenues.