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India’s Strategic Trade Expansion: Boosting Bilateral Agreements and Partnerships

India is actively strengthening its trade relationships with key global partners, aiming to enhance its position as a major player in international trade. As part of its ambitious economic strategy, India is focusing on finalizing a range of bilateral agreements and expanding trade ties across various sectors.

Bilateral Agreement with the USA: India and the United States are targeting a comprehensive bilateral trade deal by 2025. The agreement will focus on reducing import duties, eliminating non-tariff barriers, and expanding trade in key sectors, including oil, gas, and defense equipment. Leaders from both countries aim to enhance trade flows by increasing U.S. exports of industrial goods to India, while boosting Indian exports of labor-intensive manufactured products to the U.S. This initiative is expected to foster closer economic cooperation between the two nations.

India-EU Free Trade Agreement Talks: In addition to its relationship with the U.S., India is also strengthening ties with the European Union (EU) through a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Negotiations will continue with the next round of talks scheduled from March 10 to 14. India’s Commerce and Industry Minister is set to meet with the UK’s Minister of State for Trade Policy on February 24, with further FTA talks between the two nations to restart on February 25. The India-UK FTA has already seen 14 rounds of negotiations since its initiation in January 2022, underscoring the growing importance of trade relations between India and the EU as well as the UK.

Strengthening India-Qatar Trade Relations: India’s trade with Qatar has also seen significant growth, positioning India as Qatar’s third-largest trading partner. Qatar’s Commerce and Industry Minister, Sheikh Faisal bin Thani bin Faisal Al Thani, emphasized the need for both countries to push for stronger investment and industrial collaboration. Qatar’s key exports to India include liquefied natural gas (LNG), chemicals, petrochemicals, and aluminum articles. In return, India exports a diverse range of goods such as cereals, iron and steel articles, spices, processed foods, textiles, and precious stones.

The India-Qatar trade relationship is set to expand further as both nations explore new opportunities in sectors such as energy, chemicals, and manufacturing.

India’s trade policy is increasingly focused on diversifying its trade relationships, enhancing exports, and attracting foreign investments. By finalizing agreements with major partners like the USA, EU, and Qatar, India is poised to unlock new opportunities for growth and collaboration in a rapidly evolving global economy. With its proactive approach, India aims to continue its rise as a dominant force in global trade.

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Comprehensive Stock Market Analysis at TradaBulls

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India and U.S. Lay Groundwork for Mutual Beneficial Trade Agreement

New Delhi/Washington D.C., February 2025 – The recent meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former U.S. President Donald Trump has set the stage for a Mutual Beneficial Trade Agreement, expected to be finalized by Fall. This agreement is anticipated to enhance market access and trade distribution across the Indo-Pacific region, signaling a departure from protectionist policies towards a more open and collaborative economic framework.

A Shift in India's Trade Policy

As part of India’s efforts to boost trade negotiations, the Union Budget for the fiscal year 2026 reflects a significant shift away from long-standing protectionist measures. A key highlight of the budget is the removal of seven tariffs, including the notable reduction of import duties on motorcycles. This measure is expected to facilitate smoother trade flows between India and the U.S., fostering stronger economic ties and encouraging cross-border investments.

Bilateral Trade Goals: Doubling by 2030

Both leaders have outlined an ambitious goal of doubling bilateral trade by 2030. A major component of this strategy involves expanding trade in sectors such as energy, defense, and technology-driven industries.

A special emphasis is being placed on Artificial Intelligence (AI), semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, as these industries hold the potential to strengthen technological and industrial capabilities in both nations. By fostering cooperation in these high-growth areas, India and the U.S. seek to position themselves as global leaders in innovation and manufacturing.

Defense and Strategic Collaborations

One of the most significant developments under this agreement is the potential supply of F-35 stealth fighters to India. These aircraft, equipped with supersonic flight capabilities and advanced stealth technology, will ensure superior air dominance while remaining undetected. This move aligns with India's broader defense modernization plans and marks a new chapter in Indo-U.S. strategic cooperation.

‘Make India Great Again’: Modi’s Vision for Economic Growth

In a visionary move, Prime Minister Modi has introduced the ‘Make India Great Again’ initiative, aimed at accelerating India's economic and industrial growth while reinforcing its trade and strategic partnership with the U.S. This initiative underscores India’s commitment to fostering global collaborations and positioning itself as a key player in the international trade landscape.

With these strategic moves in place, the India-U.S. economic relationship is set to enter a new phase of mutual growth and prosperity, paving the way for an era of enhanced trade, technological advancements, and defense cooperation.

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RBI's Rate Cut: Boosting Growth, Managing Inflation, and Expanding Rural Credit

In a significant move to balance economic growth with inflation control, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), under the leadership of Sanjay Malhotra, has reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 6.25%. This decision underscores the central bank’s commitment to fostering economic stability while addressing inflationary pressures.

The RBI has set an inflation target of 4.8% for FY25 and a slightly lower target of 4.2% for FY26, reflecting its long-term strategy to anchor inflation expectations amidst global uncertainties. Malhotra reassured the public that the central bank would maintain adequate systemic liquidity to ensure the smooth flow of credit throughout the economy. This liquidity infusion is expected to support businesses, stimulate consumption, and address potential credit bottlenecks.

Adding to this optimism are the recent tax reliefs announced in the Union Budget for the upcoming fiscal year. These measures are expected to fuel domestic consumption and retail credit growth, further energizing the economy. With reduced borrowing costs, businesses and consumers are poised to benefit from the lower rates, paving the way for increased credit expansion, especially in rural and semi-urban areas. These regions, which have shown growing demand for credit, are now at the forefront of the RBI's growth-focused policies.

In a complementary move, the RBI has also increased the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate, offering banks a secure mechanism to park excess liquidity while contributing to financial system stability.

Overall, the RBI's strategic decisions, combined with government-backed tax reliefs, are set to create a conducive environment for investment, consumption, and credit expansion. This targeted approach is expected to drive growth in key sectors and enhance credit accessibility, particularly in rural and semi-urban areas where demand is gaining momentum.

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Vision 2025: Driving Growth and Global Competitiveness

Key Focus Areas:

1. Accelerate Growth: Emphasis on private sector investments, boosting middle-class spending, and inclusive development.

2. Global Growth: Focus on agricultural prosperity, rural resilience, manufacturing (Make in India), MSMEs, energy security, exports, and innovation.

3. Four Engines of Growth:

Agriculture: PM Dhan Dhaanya Krishi Yojana (100 districts), Aatma Nirbharta in edible oils, Makhana Board in Bihar, seafood exports, and 5F vision in textiles.

MSMEs: Enhanced investment and turnover limits, focus on footwear, leather, toys, and clean tech manufacturing (solar, EVs, wind turbines).

Investments: Nutritional support (Poshan 2.0), broadband in schools, IIT expansions, AI Centers of Excellence, urban challenge fund, and infrastructure development.

Exports: Export promotion mission, Bharat Trade Net, and easing trade documentation.

Key Initiatives:

1. Agriculture:

- PM Dhan Dhaanya Krishi Yojana: Covers 100 low-productivity districts, aims to enhance crop diversification, storage, irrigation, and credit access for 1.7 crore farmers.

- Aatma Nirbharta in Edible Oils: 6-year mission for Toor, Urad, and Masoor.

- Makhana Board: Established in Bihar to boost makhana production.

- Seafood Exports: Focus on sustainable fisheries in Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep.

- 5F Vision: Farm to Fibre to Factory to Fashion to Foreign in textiles.

- Urea Plants: New plants in Eastern India (Naamroop, Assam).

2. MSMEs:

- Enhanced investment and turnover limits for MSME classification.

- Focus on footwear, leather, and toys manufacturing.

- Clean Tech Manufacturing: Solar PV cells, EV batteries, wind turbines, and grid-scale batteries.

3. Investments:

- Poshan 2.0: Nutritional support for 8 crore children, 1 crore pregnant women, and 20 lakh adolescent girls.

- Education: Broadband in schools, IIT expansions, and AI Centers of Excellence.

- Urban Development: Rs. 1 lakh crore urban challenge fund.

- Infrastructure: Public-private partnerships, power sector reforms, and nuclear energy mission (100 GW by 2047).

- Tourism: Development of top 50 tourist destinations, e-visa streamlining, and focus on Buddhist sites.

4. Exports:

- Export Promotion Mission: Easy access to export credits and cross-border factoring.

- Bharat Trade Net: Digital platform for trade documentation and financing.

- FDI in Insurance: Raised to 100% for companies investing premiums in India.

Tax Reforms:

1. Direct Tax Proposals:

- Simplified tax structure for individuals and businesses.

- Increased TDS limits for senior citizens and rent.

- Extended time limit for updated returns (2 to 4 years).

- Presumptive taxation for non-residents in electronics manufacturing.

- Tax benefits for startups incorporated before 1.4.2030.

2. Income Tax Slabs:

- 0-4 lakh: Nil

- 4-8 lakh: 5%

- 8-12 lakh: 10%

- 12-16 lakh: 15%

- 16-20 lakh: 20%

- 20-24 lakh: 25%

- Above 24 lakh: 30%

3. Tax Benefits:

- No tax for income up to Rs. 12 lakh (excluding capital gains).

- Standard deduction of Rs. 75,000 for salaried employees.

Fiscal and Economic Measures:

1. Fiscal Deficit: Estimated at 4.4% of GDP.

2. Customs Duty Reforms:

- Reduction in tariff rates (only 8 rates remaining).

- Exemptions for life-saving drugs, EV batteries, and capital goods.

3. Mining and Tourism:

- State Mining Index to encourage mining.

- Development of tourist destinations and medical tourism.

5 Domains of Growth for Next 5 Years:

1. Taxation: Simplified and taxpayer-friendly reforms.

2. Power Sector: Reforms and nuclear energy mission.

3. Urban Development: Infrastructure and urban challenge fund.

4. Mining: Encouragement through State Mining Index.

5. Financial Sector: Regulatory reforms and FDI liberalization.

Vision:

Vikasit Bharat: Focus on democracy, demography, and demand as key pillars.

Green and Inclusive Growth: Emphasis on sustainable practices, youth, women (Naari), and farmers (Annadata).

Global Competitiveness: Boosting exports, innovation, and manufacturing

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Titan Records Strong 24% YoY Growth in Q3, Driven by Gold Prices, Festive & Wedding Season Momentum

Titan Company posted a strong 24% year-on-year (YoY) growth for the December quarter, fueled by favorable gold price trends and robust demand during the festive and wedding seasons.

The jewellery segment led the charge with a 26% growth, while the watches and wearables segment grew by 13%. The fragrances division saw a 27% increase, indicating growing consumer interest in personal care products.

Titan’s online jewellery arm, Caratlane, also posted a solid 25% growth, with studded jewellery sales up 26%.

The company expanded its retail network by 69 stores, bringing the total to 3,240. Titan’s stock, currently 13% below its all-time high, is showing a positive trend, with a 1% average daily upmove. Overall, Titan’s strong growth and expansion strategies position it well for continued success.

For more in-depth, day-to-day analysis, check tradabulls.com.

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Key Events to Watch for in 2025 and Their Impact on the Markets

1. Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Cuts: The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates to support growth, but persistent inflation could slow or pause these cuts. This will impact risk assets, particularly equities and bonds.

2. Global Economic Growth & China’s Slowdown: While global growth is expected to remain strong, China’s economic slowdown could negatively affect global trade and commodity demand.

3. Geopolitical Risks (Middle East): Any escalation in Middle East conflicts could drive oil prices higher, exacerbating inflation and impacting global markets.

4. Revival of the IT Sector: The IT sector, driven by cloud computing, AI, and cybersecurity, is expected to continue growing, benefiting tech stocks and innovation-driven companies.

5. Political Risks (Trump Administration): A potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency could create market uncertainty, particularly with aggressive trade and immigration policies.

6. India’s Union Budget 2025: The Indian government is expected to propose tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending to boost growth, with impacts on sectors like construction and manufacturing.

7. RBI’s Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of India may cut the repo rate to around 6%, aiming to stimulate economic activity. This could boost equity markets and consumer spending.

8. Inflation Concerns: High inflation, particularly in food and energy prices, remains a concern. Managing inflation will be key for global and Indian market stability.

9. Bihar and Delhi Elections: Elections in these key Indian states could influence local economic policies and affect market sentiment, especially in infrastructure and governance.

10. Reliance JIO is all set to bag the history as the biggest IPO country has seen.

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Holiday season optimism builds: A quick sectoral and potential movements

The market is showing signs of a potential Santa Rally, driven by a break of the 5-day low on Monday, supported by softer US inflation data. The upcoming monetary policy and Union Budget are expected to aid economic growth and market stability.

With holiday season low volumes, there’s little expectation for major selling. A close above the 200-day moving average at 23,850 could signal a modest bullish trend.

Historical data suggests higher potential for gains in the final weeks of the year, particularly seen during the 2021–22 rally. Sector performance shows Financial Services and Information Technology leading in the NIFTY50, while small caps outperform large caps. In the Midcap space, Information Technology and Consumer Services are top performers, with Capital Goods and Consumer Services rising in the NIFTY NEXT50.

Overall, the outlook remains positive, though volumes may keep the momentum in check.

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The Indian Economy Ends 2024 on a High Note

The Indian economy is set to close 2024 on a strong footing, with a robust Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 60.7, signaling significant expansion across key sectors. This milestone continues the positive momentum, as business growth hits a four-month high. Resilient demand in both manufacturing and services sectors, coupled with notable job creation, has contributed to an optimistic economic outlook.

The past quarter recorded a commendable 5.4% economic growth, and for most of the year, the PMI has remained above the critical 50-mark, indicating expansion. This achievement is particularly significant, marking the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis that the private sector has shown such consistent growth.

Key Drivers of Growth

Domestic orders have witnessed a substantial surge, boosting the demand for international goods and setting new benchmarks in global trade. Additionally, the easing of inflation, particularly in December, has further brightened the outlook. Economists anticipate that this trend could drive increased demand as we move into 2025.

Looking Ahead to 2025

Economists are optimistic about a potential interest rate cut in February 2025. With steady growth and inflation showing signs of slowing down, such a move could provide additional support to India's economic recovery. Entering the new year, the path forward looks promising, driven by strong private sector expansion and improving economic conditions.

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NIFTY 50 Weekly Review: Breakout Moves and Key Market Insights

As the week came to a close, the NIFTY 50 ended at 24,768.30, reflecting a range of 611.50 points. From Monday to Thursday, the index traded within a consolidation band between 24,500 and 24,700, awaiting a breakout.

Friday marked a significant day, creating both the lowest and highest points of the week, at 24,180.80 and 24,792.30, respectively. The index closed above the previous month's high of 24,537.60 and the Tradabulls monthly pivot level of 24,764.90.

Looking at the contributors, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, Infosys, and ICICI Bank performed strongly, while Reliance and Axis Bank detracted from the index's performance. Bharti Airtel registered the highest weekly gain, followed by Bajaj Finance.

On the other hand, Tata Consumer and Hindustan Unilever saw the most significant depreciation. The top 10 constituents of the NIFTY 50 remain positive, with the exception of Reliance and Axis Bank.

The next potential resistance level for the index is seen at the 25,000 strike, with Tradabulls indicating short-term resistance at 25,018.05 and mid-term resistance at 24,991.05 according to its Best Fair Value feature.

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December Market Outlook: NIFTY on Track for 25,000 Amid Sectoral Trends

As we step into December, the markets maintain an optimistic outlook, with the NIFTY index setting its sights on a target of 25,000. Currently trading near 24,100, the index exhibits strong support at 23,800 and faces key resistance at 24,350. A decisive close above this resistance level could pave the way for a confirmed bullish trajectory. Until then, market participants can expect periods of consolidation as the NIFTY waits for a breakout.

IT Sector to Support Market Momentum

The IT sector appears poised for an uptrend, providing crucial support to the broader index. This momentum is expected to counteract any bearish pressures and keep the market buoyant through December.

Reliance Industries (RIL): Proceed with Caution

Reliance Industries (RIL) has seen a short buildup, with its futures hitting peak levels. This signals a need for cautious optimism among traders as the stock may face pressure in the short term.

Macro Trends and RBI Policy

Despite India’s GDP growth slowing to 5.4%, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to introduce significant interest rate cuts in the immediate future. This cautious approach aligns with maintaining financial stability in light of current market conditions.

Oil Sector and Geopolitical Headwinds

The oil sector remains in a consolidation phase, influenced by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. While this may cap upside potential, it also helps avoid excessive volatility in the near term.

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Telangana Leads the Way: 100% Tax Exemption on Electric Vehicles to Promote Cleaner Air 

In a significant move towards promoting electric mobility and reducing air pollution, the Telangana State Government has announced a 100% exemption on road tax and registration fees for a wide range of electric vehicles (EVs). This landmark initiative, valid until December 31, 2026, applies to both Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) and non-GHMC areas, with no cap on the number of registrations. 

Key Highlights of the Initiative: 

1. Vehicles Covered: 

Electric two-wheelers 

Private and commercial electric four-wheelers, including taxis and tourist cabs 

Electric three-seater auto-rickshaws 

Electric light goods carriers, including three-wheeled goods vehicles 

Electric tractors and buses 

2. Special Provisions: 

Telangana State Road Transport Corporation (TGSRTC) buses can avail of lifetime benefits. 

Employee transportation buses owned by industries are eligible, provided they are not used commercially. 

3. Cost Savings: 

The exemption can save buyers up to ₹15,000 on electric two-wheelers and up to ₹3 lakh on electric four-wheelers, making EV ownership more affordable. 

Addressing Pollution Concerns 

The initiative stems from concerns about deteriorating air quality, as observed by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Telangana's government has paired this tax incentive with plans to establish EV charging stations across cities, towns, and highways to boost EV adoption. 

Growth Potential of EVs in Telangana 

With approximately 30,000 registered EVs in the state, this policy aims to accelerate adoption, projecting a growth rate of over 25% annually. This is expected to transform Telangana into a leading EV hub, contributing significantly to environmental sustainability under the slogan "Cleaner Air in a Greener State". 

Leading EV Choices and Manufacturers in India 

Some popular two-wheeler EVs in India include the Ola S1 Pro, TVS iQube, Revolt RV 400, and Tork Kratos R. Major EV producers like Tata Motors, Mahindra Electric Mobility, Ola Electric Mobility, and Olectra Greentech are driving innovation in this sector, ensuring a wide range of options for consumers. 

Telangana’s forward-thinking policy not only underscores its commitment to environmental health but also sets a benchmark for other states to follow.  

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US Fed Meeting Highlights

Interest Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, marking the second rate cut in 2024. 

Impact on Bond Yields: Despite the expected rate cut, a lack of guidance on future policy from Fed Chair Jerome Powell caused a sharp drop in US bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 4.33%, while 30-year Treasuries saw significant losses before slight recovery. 

Global Market Reactions:  a. Wall Street: Indices reached fresh record highs following the rate cut.  b. Indian Market: The Nifty 50 index stayed over 2,000 points below its record high of 26,277.35. 

Commodities:  a. Crude Oil: Prices fell, with Brent Crude down nearly 3% for the week. Trump’s presidency continues to weigh on oil, while markets consider potential stimulus from China.  b. Gold: Prices dropped as the US dollar strengthened after Trump’s re-election, impacting gold valuation. 

China's Influence: The conclusion of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting today may provide important cues for global markets. 

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