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Key Events to Watch for in 2025 and Their Impact on the Markets

1. Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Cuts: The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates to support growth, but persistent inflation could slow or pause these cuts. This will impact risk assets, particularly equities and bonds.

2. Global Economic Growth & China’s Slowdown: While global growth is expected to remain strong, China’s economic slowdown could negatively affect global trade and commodity demand.

3. Geopolitical Risks (Middle East): Any escalation in Middle East conflicts could drive oil prices higher, exacerbating inflation and impacting global markets.

4. Revival of the IT Sector: The IT sector, driven by cloud computing, AI, and cybersecurity, is expected to continue growing, benefiting tech stocks and innovation-driven companies.

5. Political Risks (Trump Administration): A potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency could create market uncertainty, particularly with aggressive trade and immigration policies.

6. India’s Union Budget 2025: The Indian government is expected to propose tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending to boost growth, with impacts on sectors like construction and manufacturing.

7. RBI’s Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of India may cut the repo rate to around 6%, aiming to stimulate economic activity. This could boost equity markets and consumer spending.

8. Inflation Concerns: High inflation, particularly in food and energy prices, remains a concern. Managing inflation will be key for global and Indian market stability.

9. Bihar and Delhi Elections: Elections in these key Indian states could influence local economic policies and affect market sentiment, especially in infrastructure and governance.

10. Reliance JIO is all set to bag the history as the biggest IPO country has seen.

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Holiday season optimism builds: A quick sectoral and potential movements

The market is showing signs of a potential Santa Rally, driven by a break of the 5-day low on Monday, supported by softer US inflation data. The upcoming monetary policy and Union Budget are expected to aid economic growth and market stability.

With holiday season low volumes, there’s little expectation for major selling. A close above the 200-day moving average at 23,850 could signal a modest bullish trend.

Historical data suggests higher potential for gains in the final weeks of the year, particularly seen during the 2021–22 rally. Sector performance shows Financial Services and Information Technology leading in the NIFTY50, while small caps outperform large caps. In the Midcap space, Information Technology and Consumer Services are top performers, with Capital Goods and Consumer Services rising in the NIFTY NEXT50.

Overall, the outlook remains positive, though volumes may keep the momentum in check.

For more in-depth market updates and analysis, visit tradabulls.com

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The Indian Economy Ends 2024 on a High Note

The Indian economy is set to close 2024 on a strong footing, with a robust Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 60.7, signaling significant expansion across key sectors. This milestone continues the positive momentum, as business growth hits a four-month high. Resilient demand in both manufacturing and services sectors, coupled with notable job creation, has contributed to an optimistic economic outlook.

The past quarter recorded a commendable 5.4% economic growth, and for most of the year, the PMI has remained above the critical 50-mark, indicating expansion. This achievement is particularly significant, marking the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis that the private sector has shown such consistent growth.

Key Drivers of Growth

Domestic orders have witnessed a substantial surge, boosting the demand for international goods and setting new benchmarks in global trade. Additionally, the easing of inflation, particularly in December, has further brightened the outlook. Economists anticipate that this trend could drive increased demand as we move into 2025.

Looking Ahead to 2025

Economists are optimistic about a potential interest rate cut in February 2025. With steady growth and inflation showing signs of slowing down, such a move could provide additional support to India's economic recovery. Entering the new year, the path forward looks promising, driven by strong private sector expansion and improving economic conditions.

Stay updated on the latest market insights and trends at tradabulls.com.

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NIFTY 50 Weekly Review: Breakout Moves and Key Market Insights

As the week came to a close, the NIFTY 50 ended at 24,768.30, reflecting a range of 611.50 points. From Monday to Thursday, the index traded within a consolidation band between 24,500 and 24,700, awaiting a breakout.

Friday marked a significant day, creating both the lowest and highest points of the week, at 24,180.80 and 24,792.30, respectively. The index closed above the previous month's high of 24,537.60 and the Tradabulls monthly pivot level of 24,764.90.

Looking at the contributors, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, Infosys, and ICICI Bank performed strongly, while Reliance and Axis Bank detracted from the index's performance. Bharti Airtel registered the highest weekly gain, followed by Bajaj Finance.

On the other hand, Tata Consumer and Hindustan Unilever saw the most significant depreciation. The top 10 constituents of the NIFTY 50 remain positive, with the exception of Reliance and Axis Bank.

The next potential resistance level for the index is seen at the 25,000 strike, with Tradabulls indicating short-term resistance at 25,018.05 and mid-term resistance at 24,991.05 according to its Best Fair Value feature.

For detailed insights, visit tradabulls.com

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December Market Outlook: NIFTY on Track for 25,000 Amid Sectoral Trends

As we step into December, the markets maintain an optimistic outlook, with the NIFTY index setting its sights on a target of 25,000. Currently trading near 24,100, the index exhibits strong support at 23,800 and faces key resistance at 24,350. A decisive close above this resistance level could pave the way for a confirmed bullish trajectory. Until then, market participants can expect periods of consolidation as the NIFTY waits for a breakout.

IT Sector to Support Market Momentum

The IT sector appears poised for an uptrend, providing crucial support to the broader index. This momentum is expected to counteract any bearish pressures and keep the market buoyant through December.

Reliance Industries (RIL): Proceed with Caution

Reliance Industries (RIL) has seen a short buildup, with its futures hitting peak levels. This signals a need for cautious optimism among traders as the stock may face pressure in the short term.

Macro Trends and RBI Policy

Despite India’s GDP growth slowing to 5.4%, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to introduce significant interest rate cuts in the immediate future. This cautious approach aligns with maintaining financial stability in light of current market conditions.

Oil Sector and Geopolitical Headwinds

The oil sector remains in a consolidation phase, influenced by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. While this may cap upside potential, it also helps avoid excessive volatility in the near term.

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Telangana Leads the Way: 100% Tax Exemption on Electric Vehicles to Promote Cleaner Air 

In a significant move towards promoting electric mobility and reducing air pollution, the Telangana State Government has announced a 100% exemption on road tax and registration fees for a wide range of electric vehicles (EVs). This landmark initiative, valid until December 31, 2026, applies to both Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) and non-GHMC areas, with no cap on the number of registrations. 

Key Highlights of the Initiative: 

1. Vehicles Covered: 

Electric two-wheelers 

Private and commercial electric four-wheelers, including taxis and tourist cabs 

Electric three-seater auto-rickshaws 

Electric light goods carriers, including three-wheeled goods vehicles 

Electric tractors and buses 

2. Special Provisions: 

Telangana State Road Transport Corporation (TGSRTC) buses can avail of lifetime benefits. 

Employee transportation buses owned by industries are eligible, provided they are not used commercially. 

3. Cost Savings: 

The exemption can save buyers up to ₹15,000 on electric two-wheelers and up to ₹3 lakh on electric four-wheelers, making EV ownership more affordable. 

Addressing Pollution Concerns 

The initiative stems from concerns about deteriorating air quality, as observed by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Telangana's government has paired this tax incentive with plans to establish EV charging stations across cities, towns, and highways to boost EV adoption. 

Growth Potential of EVs in Telangana 

With approximately 30,000 registered EVs in the state, this policy aims to accelerate adoption, projecting a growth rate of over 25% annually. This is expected to transform Telangana into a leading EV hub, contributing significantly to environmental sustainability under the slogan "Cleaner Air in a Greener State". 

Leading EV Choices and Manufacturers in India 

Some popular two-wheeler EVs in India include the Ola S1 Pro, TVS iQube, Revolt RV 400, and Tork Kratos R. Major EV producers like Tata Motors, Mahindra Electric Mobility, Ola Electric Mobility, and Olectra Greentech are driving innovation in this sector, ensuring a wide range of options for consumers. 

Telangana’s forward-thinking policy not only underscores its commitment to environmental health but also sets a benchmark for other states to follow.  

Follow for more updates at TradaBulls.com. 

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US Fed Meeting Highlights

Interest Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, marking the second rate cut in 2024. 

Impact on Bond Yields: Despite the expected rate cut, a lack of guidance on future policy from Fed Chair Jerome Powell caused a sharp drop in US bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 4.33%, while 30-year Treasuries saw significant losses before slight recovery. 

Global Market Reactions:  a. Wall Street: Indices reached fresh record highs following the rate cut.  b. Indian Market: The Nifty 50 index stayed over 2,000 points below its record high of 26,277.35. 

Commodities:  a. Crude Oil: Prices fell, with Brent Crude down nearly 3% for the week. Trump’s presidency continues to weigh on oil, while markets consider potential stimulus from China.  b. Gold: Prices dropped as the US dollar strengthened after Trump’s re-election, impacting gold valuation. 

China's Influence: The conclusion of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting today may provide important cues for global markets. 

For more market updates, visit TradaBulls.com.