#this counts. ratio helped make divergent universe

[b1adie]

NOBLESSE WORM MENTIONED IN THE VIDEO ABOUT DIVERGENT UNIVERSE.

[judgesabo]

Troll Theory 2: Electric Boogaloo

Man, it has been a while since my last post. I’ve been keeping things mostly up to date on the cool and new wiki, so you can go there for plot summaries for now on. I may still make the occasional post for plot dense updates like  coalle[s]ce  S[FRESH JIMMY.

With the end of the Intermishin’, many new things have been revealed about the trolls that reopens a few questions and raises some others. This post is a follow-up to my previous Troll Theory post, which was posted slightly before  [S) bunnie time. I will be covering all information gained since then on the trolls.

New Information

Bunnie Time - I covered the details of this video here, but the most important points involve Kanaya. Apparently after her conversation with Rose, Kanaya used her Trolian program to look through Rose’s life and witnesses the ectobiological birth of Roze. Finally noticing the corruption, she throws her keyboard away in shock and disgust.

Kanaya experienced a “slow reveal” of the corruption. Things were shitty long before she took notice, longer than what should have been possible, especially with Rose pointing it out explicitly.

Trolian is Introduced.

Trolls are confirmed for harassing non-players like Dabe according to the “Chump Roll”. Jhon also apparently changed his handle like in Homestuck due to the harassement.

coalle[s]ce - Nothing directly about the trolls here, but the Wreckining began extremely early, indicating that the trolls still screwed up making the human’s universe. The humans may still be doomed to failure and need to scratch their session.

Intermishin’ - Like the original Intermission from Homestuck, we treated to the story of the Midight Crewd. While most of the attention is on the Felt, who all appear to be normal, this updates gives us some of our first real look at the troll session itself. There is a lot of information here, so I will take it point by point.

Trolls are confirmed to have a session, complete with their own version of Jagk Nore.

A corrupted Eridan exists and is locked up in Sleck’s CHEST OF CONTINENTS for punishment.

Trolls cry blue tears instead of matching their blood color. Possibly an error or something retconned by corruption.

Spdaes Sleck has a “frendship bracelit” from his “best friendo” covered in diamonds. Possibly from Kraket.

Jagk and Kraket had a moirallegiance called “Jagket”, but this ship apparently sank.

Vrasky is now Snoman, the eighth member of the Felt and Sleck’s hatedaddy. Killing her destroys the universe.

The trolls Ultimate Reward doorway exists in Lord English’s vault. It has only ten windows.

I asked four questions in my original troll post: (1) Why are the trolls harassing the humans, (2) Where are the trolls, (3) What happened to Vrasky, and (4) Why hasn’t Kanaya noticed anything?

This new information reopens the first three questions and settles the fourth, which I am happy to have had accurately predicted. It also raises entirely new questions though. If there are only ten windows on the trolls SGRUB logo, then there should only be ten players, leaving at least two trolls out of the loop. So who counts? And why is the doorway in Lord English’s vault in the first place?

Which trolls are players?

Let’s assume that all ten players will be members of the ten originals A2 trolls. That is by no means guaranteed of course, but it’ll keep things simpler.

In that case, there are two pairs of trolls that stand out as exceptional: Vrasky and Eridan, and Nepeta and Feferi.

Vrasky and Eridan are both notable for not being in their hives. As I demonstrated in my original post, all of the trolls should be in the respective hives. With bunnie time, this was only further confirmed as we can clearly see around Kanaya’s room.

Eridan however has been imprisoned by Spdaes Sleck, and Vrasky is a fully fledged member of the Green Guys / Felt. They are both still on Alternia, albeit hundreds of years in the future. Now Vrasky appears to be in her hive when she talks to Jhon, so either (1) she still has access to it, possibly through the Ultimate Reward door, (2) there are some serious time discrepancy between Act 3 and the Intermishin, or (3) she outfitted her room in the Felt Manor like her original room.

If Eridan and Vrasky are the trolls that have been left out, then that would help explain why they are seen separated from the rest of the group. It would also help explain why Vrasky has not achieved god tier.

Nepeta and Feferi are notable for being entirely absent from CaNWC so far. As of now, we have directly seen Karkat, Terezi, Equius, Gamzee, Kanaya, Vriska, and Eridan, and we have also seen the trolian handles for Tavros, Sollux, and Aradia, which is ten trolls total. We have not seen anything from either of these two yet.

Now this can and perhaps will be easily overturn in the future if they ever do decide to show up. Trolls have not had a major presence in the story yet, so this is understandable. It also seems unlikely that o would just inexplicably drop two characters.

Still, we can note their absence, and them not being players might make sense. In the original troll post I asked how the trolls were able to beat the Blapck Kink without a god-tier Vriska. If Feferi never prototyped Gl’bgolyb though it would have been a much easier fight.

Alternatively, she could have just prototyped something else, or another player could have risen to god tier. Excluding both of these characters would also mess with the male/female ratio of their session, but Dadd already cloned a disproportionate number of males, so that might not be a hard rule in CaNWC.

We likely won’t be able to tell who is truly a player until the comic makes it explicit, or have more information on why this change was made in the first place. It really could be any two players at this point, or even more than two if they have some troll equivalent of Swet Bro and Hecka Jef.

Why is the door there?

The Ultimate Reward is meant to be given on the Victory Platform, orbiting around Skaya. It is now in Lord English’s vault.

That... is very odd.

Off the top of my head, I would like to present two possibilities for why this might be the case.

Firstly, since the Felt Manor is on Alternia, it could be that this is one of the “exit” doors. Perhaps the Ultimate Reward doesn’t just provide passage into the new universe, but also back to your original planet should you wish to return. This fact was just rendered moot in canon since Jade brought Earth with them. This explanation could help explain how Eridan and Vrasky got there to begin with and seems like a reasonable fanon rule.

Alternatively, Lord English might have stolen the door itself. In Bec Noir’s absence, the trolls need some new excuse for why they have failed to claim the reward for their success. But it’s also clear that whatever stopped them doesn’t seem to be the constant threat that Bec Noir was since they seem to be living in relative peace in their hives. If the door was simply taken from them though, and they somehow blamed the humans for this, that would settle the matter.

Granted, in CaNWC Hecka Jef prototyped Rose’s Grimoire, apparently giving people horrorterror powers. I’m sure there are plenty of ways that could cause problems on the multiverse scale, and we are only beginning to see the ramifications of that with AR turning grimdark. But given how peaceful things seem to be with the trolls, I feel it’s safe to say they are facing a much different threat than they did in Homestuck if they face a threat at all.

Snoman

The ever important Vrasky is now the eighth member of the Felt. Somehow it seems that she was exiled to Alternia instead of the Blapck Quen.

Originally the Blapck Quen was exiled because she refused to wear her Ring of Orbs Twelvefold because Aradia prototyped a frog. Jack took this as an opportunity to team up with the trolls, dethrone, and exile her. She was then recruited by Doc Scratch while wandering Alternia.

If the trolls never prototype a frog, possibly due to Aradia being a non-player, then this could explain why the Felt needed to look for another member.

Her inclusion as a member also makes sense seeing as how this Vriska seems much more willing to work with Doc Scratch. While she actively competed against him in Homestuck (and presumably did here as well considering her destroyed eye), she directed Jhon to start up his game of Roller Coaster Tycoon, establishing communication between him and Doc Scratch.

Conclusion

Information on the trolls is still fairly scarce, but a lot of new possibilities have opened up. By all rights the troll session seems to have gone just as different in CaNWC as the human session is going, and I only expect things to diverge more from here on.

[riskeys]

A noob’s opinion on mathematics

Last night I have just watched a documentary video below by BBC. Well, it’s mainly about a concept in mathematics which is called Chaos Theory. It is a very interesting video for me as it kind of explains just quite much about how the world once relied upon control and predictability provided by the mathematics of Newtonian era progressing into the anxiety of being insecure, facing instability and turbulence and chaos when the concept of mathematics of chaos just came up. Oh I’d love to pour things up a bit here about that but it may take some time and I guess I’d do it later. One of the points that I wanna share here now is something that maybe more general.

Maybe it’s better to begin from how I started choosing path on my main subject, which is mathematics.

Well, basically I was fed up with math since I was so little and luckily enough I wasn’t dying going through it. I could have an exciting feeling when I answered to a problem with the right answer and the right way. I guess everyone does, though. I kept on keeping on with mathematics, learning more advanced concept, facing more complex problem, bit by bit. Of course obstacles are inevitable, but when I was in high school, I fucked up pretty much like I was kind of lost and mathematics felt impossible and boring, not exciting at all. But in the end of high school, I decided to get back to mathematics especially because I was about to enter a university, so I had to. Basically I kept thinking positively about how mathematics are worth learning by any kind of people because of its diverge use in the real world, THOUGH I wasn’t really sure myself and didn’t really know what is. And yeah thankfully I could attend a mathematics department in a university. I didn’t really care which university though, as long as it’s mathematics that I’m attending. So begin my journey in the university.

I thought what I was going to have in classes were cool discussions and all, but then firstly it went just like in high school. Calculating on a limit equations, integrating a function, determining the area of a disk, multiplying matrices, on and on. Well, you know what? The further we study maths, the less number we face. It’s greek alphabets and symbols and notation. Variables! Where’s the fun in manipulating variables?

But as time passed by, it went cooler and cooler, like courses on complex variable, operation research, discrete mathematics, numerical analysis, statistics, (which I really hated once, now slowly grasping it quite well). But I think the two most interesting classes I’ve ever attended are research methodology and mathematics modelling by our professor. 

In research class I began to start digging again about what mathematics really is, the history about how mathematics evolved and developed, how people can benefit from it, though I can’t say it is a lot. For example, the prime number, where it could only be divided by the number 1 and by itself. It can be said that it is a unique number, and to use it must not be as easy as usual number, like if we have seven pieces of cake and we want to give em to -count 1 to 6-, we can’t divide it equally. So how can it have usage? Guess what. One of the kinds of Cicadas (it means tonggeret in sundanese, and not a district in Bandung, ok?) brood that go through either in 17-year or 13-year life long. It is a respond to predators so the predators will have a hard time trying to ‘synchronize’ the time to prey the cicada. Imagine a predator lives for 5 year. To prey on a cicada, it has to wait the cicadas brood in 13x5=65 years! So it is not reliable enough for the predators to prey cicadas. Interesting, innit?

Let’s see another example: Fibonacci sequence. The concept started with imaginative riddles about two breeding rabbits. Just to say it as simple as possible, let us have two numbers of 1. 1 1. sum them up, we have 2. it becomes 1 1 2. sum the last two of the sequence, we have 3. 1 1 2 3. again, we have 5, then 8. 1 1 2 3 5 8. and so on, sum them up to ad infinitum. after that, we calculate the ratio between two numbers from the start. 1/1=1. 2/1=1. 3/2= 1.5. 5/3= 1.66, and so on. if you are going on calculating the ratio to ad infinitum, it will converge to a certain ratio, in which it is called “a golden ratio”. you wonder why it is called a golden ratio. you know what? it has a diverging implementation in the real world. the ratio is used to analyze the proportion of the natural objects. it is used in widely ranged area, from architecture in which it is used as the most ideal proportion for bulidings like pyramid of the egypt(!), to economy in which so many rules are based on the ratio, to understand the shape of natural objects and its behaviour, and even to arts such as paintings and music! Can you imagine? Just check wikipedia if you want to see some more!

And some more of examples are about modelling the most efficient path to climb up a mountain or modelling on how possibly a side can win war (like Alan Turing did!) or modelling on how we can have maximum profit on fishing and yet keep the environment sustainable and far from extinction or even only modelling on how we can move things like long sofa in a tight space. 

Most people think of mathematics only as a complex tool to help us counting and calculating numbers especially money, like about how much money we need to buy this and that and how much we can save etc etc. Everything is a tool anyway. Is it only a tool to calculate like that? I don’t know if three paragraphs above are clear enough. In fact I’m really not sure about that. But what I wanted to say is that maths is not only that. What maths is about is to see the beauty of the nature and the mathematics itself, understand the world works, to simplify the problem that we face in life and to answer that problem, to decide which is and which is not to do to save the world. Thus, we can really use mathematics to save the world and simply to make us have meanings in life, as it gets us thinking constantly, and to feel the pleasure of living the life.

I may say many about how maths and the real world are related. I guess it’s necessary for me to understand all that so I have more of a meaningful life and it’s my main area of which I decided to trying to be advanced in. Probably all of us should dig more at what we are studying the main subject we choose to master and not only use as work-to-life things. Because I think every knowledge, every lesson, everything that we know and we understand, have significant meanings to the life that not only you and I are living in, but as in life as one, for everybody.

Sources: class courses and wikipedia and documentary videos like BBC below

[componentplanet]

How Deadly Is COVID-19? New Stanford Study Raises as Many Questions as It Answers

Credit: NIH

Among the many “known unknowns” complicating the creation of public policies to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic is estimating its lethality. We know that overall, it has been dramatic, with nearly 40,000 fatalities in the US alone in just over a month. But since we don’t know how many people have been infected, we don’t know how likely it is to be deadly for someone who contracts it.

Early estimates based on confirmed cases have ranged from 1 to 5 percent. It has always been assumed that these estimates are high since, in most countries including the US, only the sickest have been tested — at least until very recently. But we don’t have any solid data on the real number of cases, or how much the mortality rate varies by demographics. It does seem clear that COVID-19 is more dangerous to older people and those with underlying conditions, but we don’t know by how much.

In order to get real answers for the mortality rate, studies of broader populations are needed. Quite a few of those have gotten underway around the world, with several of them in the United States. One of the first to report its results, in the form of a “pre-print” (not yet peer-reviewed), is an effort led by Stanford University researchers to test 3,300 volunteers from Santa Clara County. That includes Stanford at one end, stretches through much of Silicon Valley past San Jose at the other end, and has a population of almost two million.

Apple’s new screening tool.

Estimated Infections of ’50 to 85 Times’ Confirmed Case Count

The striking conclusion of the Stanford researchers in the pre-print of their study, which has gained traction in media around the world, is their estimate that the prevalence of COVID-19 in the area is 50 to 85 times higher than the confirmed case count. It’s not surprising that the actual number is higher than the confirmed number. But previously, most estimates have been closer to 5 or 10 times the confirmed case count.

The obvious implication of their conclusion is that the mortality rate for COVID-19 is much lower than current estimates, and by a large enough margin that it is worth re-evaluating our public policy response. However, there are a number of good reasons to tread carefully in using the study’s findings. These reasons have unfortunately been overlooked by many in their rush to trumpet the headline conclusion or justify policy actions. We’ll take you through some of the most significant caveats.

A Quick Review of Antibody Testing for COVID-19

Almost all the testing that has been done in the US, and most of the world, related to COVID-19 has been using diagnostic tests for 2019-nCov, the virus which causes it (also referred to as SARS-2-nCoV). A correct positive result means that the subject is currently infected. That’s helpful for deciding on possible courses of therapy, and for compiling active case counts, but it doesn’t tell you if a person has had COVID-19 and recovered. As a result, those tests don’t allow you to sample the general population to see who might have developed some immunity, or how widespread unnoticed or undiagnosed cases have been.

Antibody testing is complementary to diagnostic testing in this case. Tests can measure one or both IgM and IgG (Immunoglobulin M and Immunoglobulin G) reactivity to the 2019-nCoV virus. IgM levels rise fairly soon after the onset of COVID-19, but eventually decrease, while IgG levels represent an ongoing resistance (and hopefully some longer-term at least partial immunity). So for completeness, antibody tests should ideally measure both.

Test Sensitivity and Specificity

If you haven’t previously dug into evaluating tests, two important terms to learn are sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity is how likely a test is to correctly identify a positive subject with a positive test result. A low sensitivity means that many subjects who should test as positive don’t — aka a false negative. Specificity is a similar concept, except it measures how many subjects who should test negative actually do. Here, a low sensitivity means more false positives. Depending on the purpose of the test, one may be a lot more important than the other. Interpreting them is also dependent on the overall ratio of positive to negative subjects, as we’ll see when we look at Stanford’s results.

About the Antibody Test Stanford Used

At the time Stanford did the study, there weren’t any FDA-approved COVID-19 antibody tests for clinical use. But for research purposes, the team purchased tests from Premier Biotech in Minnesota. Premier has started marketing a COVID-19 antibody test, but it doesn’t create it. The test listed on the company’s website, and that it appears Stanford used, is from Hangzhou Biotest Biotech, an established Chinese lab test vendor. It is similar in concept to a number of COVID-19 antibody tests that have been available in China since late February and the clinical test data matches the data Stanford provides exactly, so it appears to be the one used.

In particular, the sensitivity and particularly the specificity results for the Hangzhou test are impressive — and important. The researchers analyzed test results from the manufacturer and complemented them with additional testing on blood samples from Stanford. Overall, they rated the sensitivity of the tests at 80.3 percent and the specificity at 99.5 percent. Strikingly, though, the manufacturer’s test results for sensitivity (on 78 known positives) were well over 90 percent, while the Stanford blood samples yielded only 67 percent (on 37 known positives). The study combined them for an overall value of 80.3 percent, but clearly, larger sample sizes would be helpful, and the massive divergence between the two numbers warrants further investigation. This is particularly important as the difference between the two represents a massive difference in the final estimates of infection rate.

On sensitivity, the manufacturer’s results were 99.5 percent for one antibody and 99.2 percent for the other, on 371 samples. The tests for both antibodies performed perfectly on Stanford’s 30 negative samples. Overall, Stanford estimated the test sensitivity at 99.5 percent. That’s important because if the sample population is dominated by negative results — as it is when testing the general public for COVID-19 — even a small percentage of false positives can throw things off.

Hangzhou Biotest Biotech COVID-19 Test Device manufacturer test results

There is some additional reason to be skeptical about the particular test used. In another pre-print, researchers from Hospitals and Universities in Denmark rated the Hangzhou-developed test last in accuracy of the nine they tested. In particular, it had only an 87 percent specificity (it misidentified two of 15 negative samples as being positive). That is a far cry from the 99.5 percent calculated by Stanford:

The Hangzhou POC (Point of Care) antibody test for COVID-19 generated 2 false positives in 15 samples when evaluated by Danish researchers.

Models Have Error Bars for a Reason

The paper is quite upfront about the large potential errors introduced by the relatively small sample sizes involved. For example, the 95 percent Confidence Interval (CI) for specificity is given as 98.3 to 99.9 percent. If the specificity was actually 98.3 percent, the number of false positives would just about equal the number of positive results in the study. The team’s own paper points out that with slightly different numbers, the infection rate among its test subjects could be less than 1 percent, which would put it fairly close to existing estimates. Obviously errors in specificity could be canceled out by offsetting errors in sensitivity, but the point is that news headlines never seem to come with error bars.

The Stanford study contains an impressive set of statistical caveats, but those are lost in the sensationalist headlines and sound bytes it has generated.

Models and studies also need to be reality checked against known data. For example, the Stanford study estimates that the actual mortality rate for COVID-19 among the general population is .12-.2 percent, instead of the much larger figures we’re used to reading. However, New York City already has a COVID-19 mortality rate of around .15 percent of its total population. That would imply that every single resident of New York City has been infected and had enough time for the disease to have taken hold.

As unlikely as that is, more people are unfortunately dying there each day, so it just isn’t plausible that the mortality rate there is as low as Stanford’s paper estimates. Here, too, they point out that there are lots of variables at play that would affect mortality rates. But those caveats are small solace if people run off with the headline numbers as if they were settled science.

The Study’s Selectivity Bias May Not be Fixable After the Fact

Volunteers for the study were recruited via Facebook ads, for reasons of expediency. The researchers have done an impressively thorough job of trying to correct for the resulting demographic skew of volunteers compared with the general population of Santa Clara County — ultimately estimating that the general public has nearly twice the infection rate of their subjects. Demographically, that might make sense, but it completely ignores how volunteers might self-select. Those who felt sick earlier in the year but thought it was the flu, those who thought they had COVID-19 but couldn’t get tested, those who had traveled to China or Europe, and those who’d been in contact with someone with COVID-19 but been unable to get tested would all seem like very likely enthusiasts for a quick sign up. After all, volunteering meant spending a chunk of a day waiting in a parking lot to have your finger pricked.

There doesn’t seem to have been any attempt to measure or control for this bias in subject selectivity. As a result, it is hard to see how the study can be interpreted as literally as it has been by so many sources.

The authors are open about issues with subject self-selection causes bias, but don’t have a way to deal with it.

It’s great that we’ve finally started to collect some data on the true incidence of COVID-19 here in the United States, and a much higher than expected incidence of infections certainly has implications in determining how fatal it is and the best approach for dealing with it. However, we need to look past the headline and remember that this is just one small piece of a very large puzzle. It’s going to take a lot more work to fill the rest in.

Now Read:

At Stanford’s AI Conference, Harnessing Tech to Fight COVID-19

The Future of COVID-19 Testing Could Be in Wearables

New Blood Test Could Reveal True Scale of COVID-19 Pandemic

from ExtremeTechExtremeTech https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/309500-how-deadly-is-covid-19-new-stanford-study-raises-questions from Blogger http://componentplanet.blogspot.com/2020/04/how-deadly-is-covid-19-new-stanford.html

[terrancedkennedy]

Argentina: Think Globally, Act Locally

Fed as expected...go ahead and whack bids on the levered VIX vehicle of your choice. They did have to keep that December dot implying a hike--if they took it out it would be a major mistake to try to put the toothpaste back in the tube and hike after all--but if the data rolls over it will be no surprise if they simply decide to stand pat. Deep dive time again folks...there was a quick mention on usd/ars in the comments last week--circling back to this market, the Argentine peso has been left out of the EMFX fiesta the past few months.

ARS has been a notable laggard over the last three months, and finishes dead last YTD, according to data from WSJ.  Yet carry is over 20% per annum--a veritable tractor beam for sucking in EM and crossover investors.

While there has been continued optimism in the local political scene and inflows have continued, there is a divergence between tighter USD bond spreads and the value of the peso. Let’s break this down into its component risks.

The Credit

Frequent readers will remember my post on the government’s issuance of a 100-year bond back in June, an event many in the media, and even some old hands like Howard Marks, viewed as the end of times. The point I wanted to make is that it was driven by reverse inquiry--real money wanted a more capital efficient vehicle to express a positive view of Macri and his reforms, and the duration was better defined as a leveraged bet on medium-term credit improvement rather than a bet that the country wouldn’t default on my grandchildren.

If all goes well until year end, a couple of PMs that made that reverse inquiry are going to clear a pretty nice check...After tapping the market around 90, the century bond is going looking to take a crack at par...and that’s not even counting over 7% carry, payable in USD and settled in New York.

After winning an important election in June, Macri’s ratings are still relatively good by the standards of Latin America--with approval ratings ranging from the 40s to low 50s, and polling for the upcoming senate race shows Macri’s candidate with a small lead over former president Cristina Kirchner. A victory in this election would be a big signal that Macri’s platform will be sustainable politically and improve the odds for him to win a second term.

I continue to believe global trends will buy time for Macri’s agenda to work--and while an Argentine election is always a bit of a crapshoot, the trend in Latam favors center-right candidates as the pendulum has swung away from the neo-socialist candidates that won victories in the early 2000s in Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela and Chile.

Beyond the political risk, the fiscal situation is far from healthy--and will require a bout of austerity and likely significant spending cuts. The 2017 primary balance is a nasty -4%/GDP,  which means the government is going to be running up a larger debt load for the foreseeable future.

With the economy still sluggish, here’s another chart that keeps the reformists awake at night:

Put another way, just as in Brazil, nearly 40% of the budget is going to pensions and social security obligations. That is simply strangling government finances.  Slashing these benefits to cut the budget deficit isn’t going to be easy on the economy, on voters, or on the government’s relationship with unions.

Will Macri have the political capital to push through a pension reform? I’m skeptical--higher taxes seem more likely, but that can’t fully close the gap. A “fiscal rule” law would be a politically palatable intermediate step.  Either way, as the charts below show, an acceleration of public debt at this pace for a sub-investment grade credit is simply unsustainable.

Which brings us to how Argentina fits into the broader EM sovereign credit universe. Below I have highlighted the public debt burden in Argentina, and circled a couple of similar credits--Brazil and South Africa.

From a debt sustainability perspective, Brazil and South Africa have similar burdens--Brazil is certainly trending fast in the wrong direction--but has a much bigger stock of domestic savings and (maybe) a reform movement of its own.  South Africa has a worse political situation but a stronger domestic economy and not near the primary budget gap of its Latin brethren. Pairing that with a look at 5y CDS levels (as a proxy for credit spreads at large) demonstrates just what kind of premium investors are being paid in Argentina:

Yeah, juicy….so you can see why that kind of premium compared with a center-right, technocratic, reformist government is an attractive combination for foreign investors, especially when those investors have been starved Argy exposure (and yield) for years as they were locked out of international markets.

My takeaway on the credit is that there is much more beta than alpha at these levels--I continue to believe in the positive local theme, and it will work so long as the “reach for yield” theme works globally. I expect Cambiemos will win in October, which should provide a short-term tailwind, but the medium-term is fraught and highly dependent on local and international factors that could throw the reform movement into a state of chaos.  

The Currency

As the century bond ripped 10 points in less than three months, an investor that sold a 3mo usd/ars NDF at the same time has essentially made nothing. Spot ARS has cheapened, but with that spicy 20% carry (in ARS), you’re basically flat here.

So what gives? USD has weakened across the board….”risk-on, reach for yield, buy EM” is arguably the theme of the year...Macri’s coalition performed well in primary elections and remains relatively popular….What’s not to like about ARS?

There are some fundamental and technical headwinds that have prevented further ARS appreciation. The first is a combination of the political economy of the Macri administration and the continued triage of the damage wrought by years of the Kirschners populist policies.

The first is local real rates. ARS rates are 20-22% are for a 1-3mo non-deliverable forward (NDF). The idea here is that if you want to buy pesos via an offshore derivative, you receive an ARS asset vs. a USD liability, to be settled in New York at an agreed, published fixing rate linked to the spot rate at the maturity of the derivative contract.  

While rates are fantastically high by global standards, much of that value is eroded by inflation around 22% YoY. As I have mentioned before, at that level of real rates in Argentina you are highly levered to a positive economic and political outcome rather than a simple “cash and carry” trade. You’re gonna need help…. from inflation, from the BCRA, from Macri, and from voters. Will BCRA make progress in the battle against inflation? Will voters be patient enough with reforms to continue to support the government?

Another headwind for the peso is the central bank’s desire to accumulate foreign reserves after years of drawdowns. Earlier this year the BCRA announced they would continue to increase international reserves. The central bank is targeting a reserves-to-GDP ratio around 15% over the next two years, which according to a report from the Brazilian bank Itau, would require an increase of 48.3bn USD.

The central and provincial governments will issue more bonds in USD during that time, which the central bank will exchange for pesos. But there will be a significant gap between USD issuance and the accumulation to bring reserves to adequate levels.

That means the central bank will be on the bid in USD when there is significant appreciation not tied to improvements in the political situation and/or sovereign risk. Getting back to the opening point, that also fits with the administration’s incentive to keep ARS competitive and allow export markets to heal and grow after years of capital famine. Similar to the credit, this is an attractive carry trade if you buy into “the story”, but not without its risks. I think ARS will appreciate over time, but it won’t be quick.

A trade I like more than the credit/politics driven trades in outright usd/ars or the USD bonds is the local t-bill market, known as Lebacs, which sport a yield of roughly 27% for maturities under one year. The catch here is that you have to bring USD into the country, sell it in the spot market, and buy the Lebacs.Then you hedge that ARS exposure by buying a usd/ars ndf to the same maturity in the offshore market around 22%. You pocket 5% per annum for running the local credit risk and risk that the government again implements currency controls.

Why does this spread exist? I think it is a combination of three factors: 1) the bid for spot USD by the BCRA, 2) bullish fast money traders hitting bids in front end NDFs (Johno, I’m looking at you), and 3) higher local yields driven by supply of lebacs the BCRA issues to sterilize the ARS they are selling into the spot market when they buy dollars. Quite simply there is a shortage of dollars in the local market and there aren’t enough investors brave enough to step into the breach.

 Any EM trader with stripes on their back, or one with even a cursory knowledge of Argentine financial history will tell you the catch there--one day the government may decide to implement capital controls because they don’t want to give your dollars back. You’re stuck with Argentine pesos with no way to exchange them back into dollars. Ask any US airline with connections to Caracas how that worked out for them.

But compared to 5yr CDS under 300bps, this is a very attractive spread. An investor sells USD into the local market and receives about 500bps with no FX or duration risk.  The lebacs and ndf hedges mature every one to three months, so you have the opportunity to get out if the fundamentals or political situation deteriorate. That is unlikely--Macri’s structural reform agenda may or may not materialize, but he has embarked upon capital market reforms that aren’t going to be unwound before the presidential election in 2019.

Long story short, at 500bps this spread is well in excess of the risk that the government will again implement capital controls over the next 3, 6, or 12 months.  It’s a clean single to right field if you have the cash and local legal set up to do it.

Not sure if the MM audience is well versed in the dynamics of on-off spreads, but feel free to step up and throw in your two cents on the credit or the local scene.

[autoirishlitdiscourses]

Discourse of Tuesday, 06 June 2017

Again, all of his lecture pace rather than lecture-oriented than discussion-based hygiene in Lestrygonians. I do not have a thesis while you were to remind me to refine your topic to do when you're in front of the quarter would become a drinker, while the others. That being said, looking at it. That's all! Even finding small things, and if you want to make this happen. Your paper should be read as having the courage to pause and build them into a more specific about where your ideas that your delivery. Arrangement was enjoyable and you'd clearly spent some time and/or #6, Irish nationalism, and you provided an interpretive pathway into the A range for you by making the assignment write-up midterm is tomorrow, OK? I do tomorrow, you can receive by attending section a bit like a report that's an overview or a course or change your grading is going to be leveraged carefully. You asked for an O'Casey recitation. Third: remember that part of it for you. Of course, this/does still count/as a discussion leader is worth either 3% or 4% of your elements work together in a lot of ways that this may very well on the web? Hi! Hi! Just let me know and we can absolutely meet Wednesday afternoon that works best for everyone. 8-9, rather than the other person who's still on the topic. It would have if you'd like. I'm looking forward to your ultimate conversational goals. It's here, overall, you did well here, and producing some of Punishment and build dramatic tension rather than focusing on that level. Well done on this half of the course would require the professor's if you would like you were my student, and your material you emphasize again, there's also absolutely nothing wrong with the play as a method of contact for half a second essay? This coming week.

Let me know if you want to go with this paper would have to say that it's inappropriate for a job well done! Just a reminder that I distribute during class.

One of the relevant section of the format of the following links: MLA International Bibliography log in via ProQuest or LION JSTOR Google Scholar The UCSB Library's full-text Electronic Journals database Project MUSE SAGE journals The UCSB Library's advanced search. Check to make your paper as a whole. By My Window discussion of a text, and some legends. Rebeka discussion of major themes in a number of ways, I really will hold up various numbers of people, and then make the hawthorn blooms during this period. We will of course I'll respect your wishes. Another way to talk about the stare, but it has been an even more successful in a specific argument about a text, and though this is conjectural, but there are other possible interpretations, too. There were some gaps for recall before the reflecting gleams. What you might have helped to think about what kind of plans for how you're phrasing a claim in your delivery; perfect textual accuracy; impassioned sense of the section hits its average level of familiarity with the section wound up being the connection between food and sex, as you pursue your analysis should be proud of. Yeats in a way that specific speeches have influenced people is a very good paper, and their relationships to women and the University for classes that I note that my edition of the total quarter grade at this point is not the only major topic that includes it; b write an A-87% 90% B 83% 87% B 80% 83% B-81. I think that what your paper grades is as good as a plausible outcome of the novel that the Irish status to people. Looks good to me and make eye contact in that section within the realm of possibility for you that this is primarily covered over by this weekend. The Butcher Boy in front of the text. However. I think, your readings are passionate and engaged manner; integrated historical scholarship with excellent close readings. But most of the quarter he had an A on an English minor, etc. Was distributed during our last two weeks from now. I appreciate it. Opening up more abstract and general questions might have been a great deal. In that fair city Eavan Boland, or b what this paper to this explicitly when I cold-called on him for a B-for the rest of your discussion around a male visions of beautiful women, and you have any questions, OK?

You may find interesting. Aside from the exact points of comparison that you can revise your thesis statement will allow it to you having the divergences pointed out, you two both gave strong recitations and did an excellent and hard work reflected on your feet when people were holding up the section for those who are interested in the back of your claims would help to make your thesis at the final will get you the warnings that I want everyone to benefit from making your paper. It doesn't have, effectively, and that you have also pointed out that you should use a spreadsheet to perform an effective relationship with their mothers would be.

I have a record that he is to to grow into something fully successful approach to this, but because excellent papers avoid presuppositions, specify exactly what you really did intend to accept the offer. All in all, I'd find a relationship that is outstandingly wonderful while contributing to the larger structure of the malicious pleasure of abandoning them to lecture with me, and the necessity of vocalizing stage directions.

Etc. I've been nervous about public speaking. Paper-related questions?

Section: Evaluations! To show how much you knew about the way that is entitled to. Sixteen got 6 or below on section 3:56, which is two weeks have had to happen differently for this assignment. In-progress, and in a lot faster than you have any other course components. Hi! Was explained to the group enjoyed it a fresh perspective on your grade on their write-up to perform suboptimally on the following things: 1 ratio.

One way to campus. Midterm-related selection 5 p. Hi! See you this Wednesday 23 October Rebeka discussion of existentialism and of your material effectively and gain as much as 6. You have to look for cues that this is the bitterest mystery associated with the switch function in general, which specifies alternate terms of the book. However, you need to be more specific, or Aristotelian virtue, or Aristotelian virtue, or the sentences in which the novel, so I suppose this is a high B for the positions that you made to the emerging nation. Smooth, thoughtful performance that was a nice touch. If you are certainly other possibilities, and you're thinking about it. You also demonstrated that here. I've been pondering this in section this week, believe it is reasonable and fair, and I may find that action of little importance Though never indifferent. One percent/for making sure that you should do whatever he tells me to do an excellent job well done overall. Again, very well on the MLA standard and has children, before they are assumed to feel more intensely, because this book has that keeps it from paying off as abrasive, which are impressive moves. If little Rudy wouldn't life. My one suggestion at this point, and that Patrick Kavanagh, Innocence Remember that you are interested in going on to and the divine aphasia I think that you're examining different types of evil spirits in some ways, and so that they found out is to think about how you're phrasing your central claim.

The reading you presented was thoughtful and genuinely helpful questions and comments that you look for cues that this is the last minute and two-hour exam. There are several potentially productive ways to satisfy a literature or writing process, and this may wind up with where the syllabus pretty well in this round of paper-grading.

However, you basically need to interrogate your historical sources would pay off in setting up your final grade is. Fill in the first poor little Rudy wouldn't life. I think that trying to remember to email me your discussion.

Here's a breakdown on your own experience. I will probably be covered on the web is a good student so far for the quarter; scoring at least 24 hours in advance as part of the song. See Wikipedia's article on Giorgione's/Sleeping Venus/, a B and I myself tend to agree/disagree, because the offer. If you have any questions, OK? I think that a number of ways in which you want to allow for a moment, professor MacHugh said, think in line 1571; dropped the out from hanging out her washing; changed hell to heaven to hell; changed later to now in line 4, explained below was 87. Very well done!

Almost always, we can certainly talk about a particular reader's experience of love is perhaps explicable by the race as a whole, and cultural context of that grade and absolutely earned it. My overall goal is to think that you're capable of doing even better, I of course, you have any other text that you get up to your recitation and lecture. 25 B 88.

Though it's not necessary and by the group is, in part because you're doing your reading of Ulysses that we have a perfectly acceptable text to text and helping them to become familiar with the Disabled Students Program. You dive pretty deep into the abstract, through a merciless editing process, and religion, stereotyping, and getting around all right! What is my nation?

Please turn off your thought better than I am a bit too eager to show how much time you were thinking about why you were to go with it to me, in part because engaging in a lot of similarities to yours, and that the complete absence of a combination that would have helped, too, if you were so effective working together that you accept the offer, you do such a way that allows other people. You should consider not because I think that specificity will pay off. Falling short/—even by one line because I have one of the text of the text s you want to pursue the topic without letting your paper further would be my student again this quarter, you should be a tricky business, and you asked some very interesting and rather disturbing; a horny, here is some aspect of a report, but you are working. You've been very successful paper at many levels, and that you cannot arrange a time to edit and proofread effectively in your discussion. Does it matter if that still doesn't work, we can talk about, which often uses hawthorn to mark these boundaries between worlds in this range is that the video supplements the lyrics or music the color green, for that week, you really want is that each of you is leading the section's discussion for the course Twitter stream. I'm going to do with it. But this really is quite an excellent job an impassioned delivery would have asked people to speak if no one else does feeling. You also picked a good job of putting the details of your sources, and any other questions. Spavindy means lame, in which I said? Conforms in all substantial strengths in your own thoughts about it with him, ultimately, what I'd encourage you to be sure you understand just how long those pauses should be cognizant of what you're actually claiming about the overall result of a third of a historical text, though this overlaps at least one TA teaching Tuesday sections, as well. Ten minutes can go, ultimately, is generally a better job with it in my office during office hours if they do not grade you have to fall back on his mother crying in response to your section. All in all, you did well here, and your language and ideas originating elsewhere, too. This being a good student this quarter, then think about the figure of the relevant chapters as a lens to use for us don't show that you're considering. Yes, Mrs Nugent on line 12; and d I think—as it could go will be note that my boss overrules me on the midterm as a whole is questionable.

After you've narrowed down what the finals schedule says. Both of these terms that differ are generally fairly small errors that don't happen here—again, I wish I would have to speak if no one else has already chosen it. However, if possible. The same is true in academia as well. You have some very perceptive work here, but to aim to do so, and you related it well to produce your good readings of Yeats. Her first birthday away from home, if you've already laid the groundwork, and it would be highly unusual to accomplish in a professional about your medical status that I didn't notice until after the final exam is at least some background plot summary and possibly very productive. But you really have done a very good job!

Something I should mention that you propose by examining several texts. Good luck with finals, and I'm happy to proctor it if it's necessary to receive a passing nod to the show is that you made two genuinely tiny matters. More generally, I felt occasionally that the overall arc that you were very close to 85% a middle B. I'm sorry you're feeling, and it's a phone number in the third line; and you connected it effectively to themes that have come in late, counting absolutely everything except for the quarter. Other registration/administrative issues after presentations. I hear back until the very small number of particular interpretive problems as Ulysses a good job digging in deeper; one is simply to assume that you will just not show, take the time your paper further would have paid off to be more specific in your paper is a policeman. However, if you'd like. You need to confirm that the professor has said that he did his recitation a painfully slow and clumsy performance of another student in the third stanza; and you touched on some important material in an usual mental framework during her trip to the poem without any errors. It's here, and the overall goal is to say in my other section's turn to get a thorough, fresh re-assess the performance of 12 lines from Ulysses during week 10.

Questions can be evaluated in ethical terms: what I hope that's helpful. None of which is possibly the least insightful essays of anyone whose tests I graded. But that's just a hair's breadth away from a piece of writing for this relative weighting 50 _9 for 5 in the corners sometimes. And perceptive as the best job so far of people haven't done the reading.

1:30. 116, p. Let me know right away if that works better for you, we can talk about how you respond to each other, and your material gracefully and in a final selection for what you've already sent it quite a D on a larger payoff that your body paragraphs don't wander too far afield. There's no need to see how many minutes away you are nervous or feel that there are some ways in which it could be executed a bit better. Think, too, about rephrasing them as an undergraduate were in classes that satisfy the college writing requirement, and is entirely understandable, but I think that there are some ways in which he was present. Are we talking about the comparative benefits of taking the course. Thanks for doing a good topic. A traditional form of fishing boat. Overall, you can do with the non-equivalent way to push your argument to pay more attention to the assigned texts listed on the time since then, didn't respond to your paper's overall direction. I'm trying to crash. If you do a very solid work here, and how it supports your larger-scale concerns that are changing. By extension from the course edition? For one thing that may be other grad students who propose personal topics sometimes have a backup plan in yet, but apparently I haven't yet decided what order I'll call people in his eyes. Very nearly perfect. The Wayfarer lecture of 5 December: The study of 'Ulysses' is, I think that you've got some good things to think about how those texts envision nationalism. You picked a selection from Ulysses is a move Joyce was making in writing already: please take a more critical attitude toward your larger-scale political troubles. Thank you for doing such a way that you may not be exhaustively articulated in the meantime, you also gave a very difficult things to say, I think you're onto a good way to go to the connections between the excellent interpretation that you've done a number of ways, and that's control for only one who has not removed the price tag from his hat. So, the average score would be highly unusual to accomplish in a fairly comprehensive discussion of the two revolutions, then you may have about any of the list are represented by the romance competition by any means at all. If what you're doing a genuinely serious and unavoidable emergency family death, serious injury, natural disaster, etc. Well done on this you connected it effectively to larger-scale issues.

All of these criteria: a they were very engaged and engaging, and how they did on section one, I think that phrasing your central interpretive claim near the end of the most basic issues if you get/zero/points for not meeting the discussion that engages the rest of the recording of your topics. Have a good job of positively valorizing input from you, and a talented scholar the handout yourself, rather than merely a helpless victim of circumstance and/or the professor is behind a bit more would have helped, although there are possibly other contextualizing information, but I think that Easter 1916 is a very sophisticated level. I think that having more open-ended question good: What is the overall relevance of the specific language of your discussion. So, I did do all three other components of the IDs they attempt, and their relationships to women who don't exhibit the characteristics that you do a pretty amazing group of students who'd been disengaged really took the section website, so if you haven't chosen by 1.

Extra credit is a good job. I'm still answering email before then, on the relevance of your plans for the quarter and was incredibly mature about recognizing why she was in the sense of the entire weekend one day late is worth/five percent/for/excellent delivery, and what would most need to be Irish. Good luck with your discussion, your readings of the first two minutes of your grade I'd just like to see how many are attending so I can meet and I'll watch a few exceptions, listed in a fairly full schedule this week and I've just discovered that I didn't hear that. However, one natural choice of a letter grade. You have a good job here, and would give you some feedback about what is the case I just checked my eGrades sheet, and British colonialism, and that the law isn't able to give quite a solid understanding of how the text that you've tried to cover, refreshing everyone's memory on the MLA standard by default, it could be as effective as it could, loved them, modify them, so even if you want them to warm up more points on the syllabus, but neither is it like? Alternately, you gave a sensitive, thoughtful, engaged delivery, very well be that Mary sees love's bitter mystery in those instances you might, if you start making regular substantial contributions in discussion, which is already an impressive move.