#the 2023 nhl draft lottery | Explore Tumblr posts and blogs

stereax · 1 year ago

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Okay so I said maybe I'd do this but now I am DEFINITELY doing this for real. I'm writing and hopefully posting this after the first round of the draft so I don't get spooked by GMs making trades on the draft floor. But let's go and see how wrong we are in a year!

Stereax's 2023-24 NHL Predictions!

Quick disclaimer: I'm not going to be going into a 1-32 power ranking; only five categories: Cup Contender, Playoff Placer, Wildcard Watchlist, Middest Misser, and Terrible Tanker. This will roughly give us five strata - CC for the top teams in the league, PP for those that should comfortably make the playoffs and do okay in them, WW for those that should end up in the wildcard race, MM for those that don't make the playoffs yet aren't bad enough to get into the draft lottery, and TT for the worst teams in the league who are in the race for last. Alliteration, baby. In addition, I'm going to have 1 CC, 2 PPs, 2 WWs, 2 MMs, and 1 TT per conference, just to spice it up.

That being said, let's get into it!

First up, let's start with my favorite division: the Metro!!!

Hurricanes: Signing Kochetkov was one of the best things Brind'Amour did. Look at the Canes' CapFriendly situation and tell me what you think. Spoiler alert: a lot of their depth is headed for UFA (Gostisbehere confirmed, I think, and a lot more that look likely). Next year is really their last year to go for it before the big guns' contracts come up and they're going to cap crunch. It also depends on the goalie situation, but for now, I'm giving them a solid ranking, but not the best. Playoff Placer.

Devils: Okay, I am a Devils fan ride-or-die, but, at the time of writing this, it's hard to say we're NOT going to roll the Metro. Fitz's recent trades (Toffoli for Shango and a 3rd, dumping Mac, sign-and-trading Severson) have injected even more oomph into the lineup while giving up little of long-term value. Not going to talk Devils puck for an hour, although I very very much could (and would if anyone hit my inbox please talk to me I get lonely lol), but we genuinely have one of the best forward cores in the league, some great defense coming up, and actual goaltending. And cap space! Cup Contender.

Rangers: As long as Shesterkin exists, the Rangers should be decent enough to be at LEAST wildcards. As long as Drury exists, the Rangers will never be good enough to be actual contenders. I'm sorry, but this was supposed to be their year and they blew it even harder than the other times they blew it. They are constantly in win-now mode and failing to develop their prospects. Their forward core is slowly aging as well. Also, the cap is screwing them over. Playoff Placer.

Islanders: As long as Sorokin exists, the Islanders should be decent enough to be at LEAST wildcards. As long as Lou exists, the Islanders will never be good enough to be actual contenders. The difference between the Rags and Isles is that the Rags, for as much as I hate them, have a functional top 6. The Isles? Hah. Retirement home. Wildcard Watchlist.

Penguins: What can I really say about them? Getting really old and deciding to hold the three-headed monster's hands as they ride off into the sunset. It's noble but it's not going to get them a cup. I think Dubas is going to make some positive changes to the organization and make them more competitive, but will he make them a contender? Not at all - there's not enough left in the tank for that. Wildcard Watchlist.

Capitals: Similar to the Penguins, the Capitals seem to have decided that their goal now is to get Ovi the goals record and hold his hand as he moves closer to retirement. However, the Caps seem to have decided they're not going to contend much going forward and can start the rebuilding process at least a little earlier. They're not going into tank mode, but they're not going to make the playoffs. Middest Misser.

Flyers: I have a tag that's literally "Danny Briere's Tank-a-Thon" on my blog. It is used frequently. Briere took over the organization and basically said "this team is not going to get us where we want to go so we need to burn it to the ground". The Michkov draft pick only solidifies that their plan is not to contend in the next few years. Terrible Tanker.

Blue Jackets: Fantilli gets another year in UMich but the Jackets are building a strong team to be ready for him next year. They're going to be better this season - they've bolstered their blue line with the Provorov and Severson trades. Now if they can get a goaltender that posts a save percentage beginning with a .9 and not a .8... Until then, they're not going to contend. But they won't be last in the division - the Flyers exist. Middest Misser.

Alright, time to visit the other Eastern division: the Atlantic!

Bruins: They're not gonna repeat the success from last year. Cap is chewing at their team (already they traded Hall and Foligno for table scraps) plus Bergeron and Krejci are major question marks. Relying on Zacha as the 1C is a yikes. That being said, a lot of this team still works - Pasta, Marchand, the goalies, the defense. That should get them into the playoffs. But there will be a bunch of question marks too - Lucic, for example. Why? Playoff Placer.

Maple Leafs: Treliving has some really tough decisions to make. Keep the Core Four? Trade someone? Let someone walk? Wait - I'm getting reports that he... signed David Kampf to a 2.5m AAV deal? What the fuck was that? No, seriously, what the fuck was that? This is why Leafs fans can't have nice things! You have some great pieces and an absolute inability to build around them. Oh, and look at that, you just drafted Easton Cowan with your first-round pick when that kid was slated to go in the third or fourth round of the draft. Better options were on the table, Treliving. Playoff Placer.

Lightning: I really think this is the slow decline of the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Jeannot whiff and the loss to the Leafs, a literal cursed team, only solidified it - the Cup tax was too great. With the rise of young Atlantic teams in the Sabres and Senators, I can't give the Lightning a higher grade - even if I know they're going to find themselves in the third division spot at the end of the day. Middest Misser.

Panthers: It's very hard to argue with success. The Cats have what it takes and they know their weak spots (defense, mainly). They're not going to win the Atlantic, but they'll do as their Lightning friends have done and win just enough to get in as the 2nd or 3rd seed, then wreak havoc. Bob showed us he's worth his contract, and, with Knight, it's only looking up from here. Cup Contender.

Sabres: Young, rising stars like Tage Thompson and Devon Levi pushed the Sabres oh-so-close to a playoff spot last season. With the slow decline of the Bruins and Lightning, as well as the massive question mark that is the Leafs, I think the Sabres can snap their playoff drought next season and finally exit their rebuild. They could also get oh-so-close again though... Wildcard Watchlist.

Senators: Young, rising stars like Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle pushed the Senators oh-so-close to a playoff spot last season. With the slow decline of the Bruins and Lightning, as well as the massive question mark that is the Leafs, I think the Sens can definitely make the playoffs. They could also get oh-so-close again though... Okay, but disregarding the Sabres/Senators parallels: the Sens need an actual goaltender. No goalie, no playoffs. Goalie, playoffs. Wildcard Watchlist.

Red Wings: The Yzerplan was rumored to be long and arduous. Good news for Red Wings haters is there's no sign of that changing any time soon. While I am now morally obligated to love this team because of my newest boy that I've just adopted Nate Danielson going there, please don't tell me they have any playoff aspirations any time soon. They're already breaking Ville Husso. Terrible Tanker.

Canadiens: Their entire team shouldn't break, right? Like, that was a one-time thing? Cool. There are still a lot of question marks on the Habs' roster - they'll probably truly break out again in 24-25 or 25-26 to coincide with the decline of the Bruins and Lightning. Develop the rookies more this year. They could make the playoffs in 23-24, but I think it's a long shot. They will give the Sabres and Senators a run for their money, though. Middest Misser.

With that, the East is complete. Time to head out West... Central time!

Avalanche: Avalanche fans are all crying because Landy's out another season and half the longer-term players are being traded or let go. Despite this, the Avalanche have proven to us (last season) that they can still win the Central even if their whole team is broken. I can't give them a worse score than this, and they don't deserve it, either. Even so, I'm somewhat worried at the long-term future of the Avalanche. Playoff Placer.

Stars: It is no secret that I consider the Central the worst division in the NHL. Most of these teams are genuinely just meh. The Stars probably have the best shot out of who we've got, despite some of the depth such as Domi and Glendening leaving in free agency and players such as Pavelski possibly retiring - they've had deep runs in the past few years, and young talents such as Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger will only get better. I'm going to take this moment to laugh at the Stars deciding to bridge Robertson, though. That's going to bite them in the ass in a few years. For now, though? Cup Contender.

Wild: Look, it's a given by now that the Wild will make the playoffs and then lose in consecutively more humiliating fashion in the first round every single year. That being said, Gustavsson was stellar last year. Can he keep it up? Kaprizov is going to become a franchise player for the Wild, and now he actually has forwards that can score, too. It's looking up - what? Almost $15m tied up in dead cap from buyouts of Parise and Suter? Point and laugh, boys. Point and laugh. Good luck with offersheets, Minnesota. Playoff Placer.

Jets: The entire organization is blowing up. All the top players want out. The Jets are trying their best - the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade was great for the team, for example. I suspect, however, that they're slowly sliding into the rebuild era. No Hellebuyck? No shot. And Helle wants out to a team that can get him a Cup... Wildcard Watchlist.

Predators: Juuse Saros almost dragged the Milwaukee Admirals to the playoffs. That in and of itself gives this organization a lot of hope. If the Predators can put even a mediocre NHL-level team in front of Saros, who knows what happens? They're reportedly selling Askarov - the goalie they drafted in the first round a few years ago (which is super rare for goalies). Saros is the foreseeable future for this team. Wildcard Watchlist.

Blues: I categorically choose not to pay attention to the Blues because Jordan Bitchington pisses me off. That being said, what do the Blues even have? The Tkachuks' patronage? Some decent-at-best players in Kyrou and Buchnevich? Every good player on the Blues ends up not there (and generally on the Leafs). No shot they're good next year. Middest Misser.

Coyotes: They don't even have an arena. They drafted off the board for both their picks. (It was to pick up teammates in Simashev and But, though! I can vibe with it!) This doesn't change the fact that they're still the official bank of the NHL. Star-studded LTIR roster. And UrinatingTree just made ANOTHER lolcow video about the Coyotes. Terrible Tanker.

Blackhawks: Can Taylor Hall have another Hart Trophy season and drag a first overall center and a relatively awful team to the playoffs? Probably not. You got Bedard, wooo. Now you have to build a team of people who want to play in Chicago. Good luck! Middest Misser.

And finally, last but certainly not least... Pacific!

Golden Knights: The Knights make all the right moves (mostly), even despite the fans' best wishes. Dumping an original Misfit to Pittsburgh to make cap space for Barbashev? Trading Fleury? No matter how beloved you are, you are not safe. That being said, the Knights make the right moves. The goaltending should stabilize in the next season and the depth is insane - the Knights' fourth line is the best in the league bar none. This one's easy. Cup Contender.

Oilers: If the Oilers could build a god damn team around McDavid and Draisaitl, we wouldn't be here. Unfortunately, they can't, and we are. Darnell Nurse's 9m AAV haunts me and I'm not even really an Oilers fan. Christ. Good news is Skinner is playing great; bad news is the 5m AAV Campbell is not. See a pattern of overpaying bad defense and goalies? Yeah. Oh, and the Oilers might have to give up at least one of their good top 6 players to be able to pay their bottom 6. Yikes. Even so, the Edmonton McDraisaitls will still bury teams 5 goals a game. Playoff Placer.

Kings: Why did you pay that much for Pierre-Luc Dubois? In trade and in contract. That's an 8.5m AAV pylon for some of your best prospect forwards. You sold Quick for a few casino chips and he won his third Cup without you. Damn, the Kings are probably one of the most forgettable teams in the NHL and this proves it. Wildcard Watchlist.

Kraken: The Kraken are one of the teams that have pleasantly surprised me this season. They're really building something special in Seattle with a well-rounded roster, and Matty Beniers and Shane Wright can become bona fide stars for the Kraken. Beating the Avalanche in a playoff round only makes me more sympathetic. They should be solid for a few years yet. Playoff Placer.

Flames: Two questions: 1) What is Conroy smoking? 2) Can I have some? Look at the Toffoli trade - you just gave up your best point scorer last season for a 3rd round pick and a 3rd liner because you wouldn't prioritize his contract. The entire damn team is RUNNING from you. Yeah, you still have pieces like Kadri and Huberdeau, but even they are underperforming. Oilers fans are laughing at you. Even so, I'll be nice to you, because nobody else will be. Wildcard Watchlist.

Canucks: Hahahaha no. I should switch the rating for the Canucks and the Flames, realistically, but the sheer ineptitude of the Canucks' management is appalling. How the hell do you enter a season above the cap? The Canucks will always be mid until they realize they need to actually rebuild properly - but they won't, not if it means alienating Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson. So they're always going to be mid. Oops. Hey, Demko's back though! Middest Misser.

Sharks: It's Shark Tank season for San Jose. Actively selling Erik Karlsson for whatever he can fetch? Actually trading a sixth for Mackenzie Brokenwood and (probably) tandeming him with James Reimer? Wanting Andreas Johnsson in a trade for Timo Meier, one of your last good pieces??? Terrible Tanker.

Ducks: Carlsson? Unexpected but not a bad pick. Defensive prospects are developing well and Drysdale's shoulder is reattached. The Ducks could break out in 23-24 - they won't, but they could! I see them taking a similar path to the Canadiens - moving into the top 4 teams once the Flames and Kings fall out of viability. Like the Canadiens, they'll need some more time, though. Middest Misser.

What do y'all think of this? Any teams I'm overvaluing or undervaluing? My ask box is open :)

#stereanalysis #stereducation

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thrashermaxey · 6 years ago

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Ramblings: Draft Lottery; Lineup News; Looking Ahead – April 10

It was quite the eventful draft lottery as Colorado did not end up with the first overall pick, sliding to fourth. The Rangers, Devils, and Blackhawks all jumped into the top-3. New Jersey ended up grabbing the top pick with New York ending up in the second slot.

Should everything go to plan, the Devils will be adding an elite talent immediately to the lineup. This team desperately needed another elite talent up front and they got it. The Rangers get a great prospect in their own right. Not a bad night for those franchises, and sincerest sympathies to Avalanche fans.

Just want to say that I really hope Jake Bean can get into some postseason games for the Hurricanes. He had a marvelous AHL season and is a guy I’ve been waiting to see in the NHL for a couple years now. I assume there would have to be at least one more injury for him to get a spot in the lineup, but all the same, I have high hopes for the kid.

Slava Voynov has been suspended by the NHL for next season plus the 2020 playoffs for his domestic abuse plea deal. There had been murmurs that teams were interested in signing him, and this suspension will likely dissuade these suitors (not that they shouldn’t have been dissuaded before the suspension).

Minnesota general manager Paul Fenton expects both Mikko Koivu and Matt Dumba to be ready for the start of training camp in September. That’s great news for Wild fans and fantasy hockey enthusiasts.

Yesterday I was editing an article for Cameron Metz and in one paragraph he proclaimed that it marked the one-year anniversary for him at Dobber Hockey (congrats, Cam!). That got me thinking: this time of year would mark my own anniversary here at Dobber Hockey. Four years, to be exact. Next Tuesday will mark four years I’ve been with Dobber Hockey (man, time flies).

This link brings you to the first Ramblings I ever posted. Included are such topics as:

Peter Chiarelli being fired by the Bruins

Craig Berube’s future being up in the air with the Flyers

Boston’s cap crunch due to players like Carl Soderberg and Dougie Hamilton needing new contracts

The difference between Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek playing with Brayden Schenn and playing with Michael Raffl

Ryan Strome’s excellent 50-point season with the Islanders

Looking back at what’s happened since that Ramblings post nearly four years ago is kind of hilarious. Chiarelli has since been hired and fired by the Oilers, Berube is a coach of the year candidate in St. Louis, neither Soderberg nor Hamilton are still in Boston, Schenn is thriving in St. Louis, and Strome never recaptured that level of success. Time not only flies, but it makes fools of us all.

Seeing as this is the last day before playoffs start, it might be the last chance to do something like this, so I wanted to take a stab at what the NHL might look like in four years. Ready to be made a fool of again? I am.

Unbelievable Free Agent Class

A lot of stars have signed huge contracts in recent seasons with lengths of anywhere from six to eight years. A lot of those contracts will be running out in the same three-year span, and that will lead to a lot of talent in unrestricted free agency, even if they’re older. Per Cap Friendly, here are some of the names that could theoretically be available after the 2022-23 season: Patrick Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko, Jonathan Toews, David Pastrnak, Sean Monahan, Nathan MacKinnon, Dylan Larkin, Ryan O’Reilly, Max Pacioretty, James van Riemsdyk, Jonathan Huberdeau, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Bo Horvat. That kind of talent in a single free agent class is almost surreal.

Of course, as alluded to, a lot of players will be in their 30s by that point. There are a handful of guys who will be in their mid-to-late 20s like MacKinnon, Pastrnak, Monahan, and Larkin. With the likelihood of a lockout looming, will some of the older players not named who will also be UFA like Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo, and Duncan Keith be bought out?

The younger guys, I’m sure, will be extended by their current teams. What about everyone else? Wouldn’t it be cool for Toews and Kane to do what Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne did and take cheap contracts to sign somewhere together? Regardless, in a few years’ time, there will be a lot of high-profile free agents that will start hitting the market.

Colorado Powerhouse

It seems pretty likely that Colorado is one of the top teams in the league in four years, isn’t it? They’ll have MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen on the roster, Samuel Girard will be a top-tier puck-mover, Cale Makar has the look of a future Norris Trophy contender, and then there’s Ottawa’s top pick from this year. There will be a great core to build around and if management can manage to not pull an Edmonton or Buffalo, it will hopefully be a championship core.

Of course, there is a lot else the team will have to deal with. Their captain, Gabriel Landeskog, is a free agent after the 2020-21 season. Will he still be around? Will Tyson Barrie? Will any of the young guys currently on the roster like J.T. Compher, Alex Kerfoot, and Tyson Jost be making an impact on the 2022-23 roster? This is certainly a team on the rise, but the toughest leap to make is from a good team to a championship-calibre team. Can the Avs be that team?

I say yes. There were some early bumps in the road but the Avalanche management group has made solid deals over the last year or so. As long as they can keep making positive deals for the franchise, there’s no reason to believe they’ll flounder. I believe in April 2023, we’ll be talking about the Avalanche as one of the top franchises in the league, returning to the glory they enjoyed early in the franchise’s existence.

Tkachuk Brothers

In the fantasy game, guys I have a soft spot for are the across-the-board performers. They’re guys who may not excel in any individual category, but the sum of their parts makes for a great fantasy campaign. In years gone by, this included names like David Backes, Wayne Simmonds, and Andrew Ladd. When looking around the league currently, names like Kyle Palmieri, Gabriel Landeskog, and Brendan Gallagher fit this bill. We’re always looking to the future, and it appears the future in this category belongs to the Brothers Tkachuk.

In many ways, they’ve already sort of arrived in this position. The elder Tkachuk, Matthew, was a top-30 fantasy player in standard Yahoo! leagues this year, one year after being a top-130 player. He’s a young star on the rise and he’s proved himself as such.

Brady Tkachuk has also arrived but not to the same degree just yet. He had a marvelous rookie season, becoming sixth 19-year old rookie since the 2012 lockout to post a season with at least 20 goals, 20 assists, and 200 shots, joining Dylan Larkin, Jack Eichel, Sebastian Aho, Auston Matthews, and Clayton Keller. To put the cherry on top in multi-category leagues, Tkachuk had 75 penalty minutes and 174 hits. That is just outstanding.

It very much appears that Matthew and Brady will follow in the footsteps of past multi-cat stars like Backes and Simmonds, and current multi-cat stars like Gallagher and Landeskog. In four years, it’s very likely that both of those players are easily top-50 picks in roto leagues, if not higher.

Alex Ovechkin

It’s hard to imagine, but in four years, Ovechkin could be with a different franchise (he’s UFA after the 2020-21 season). I don’t actually think he’ll finish his career anywhere else but Washington, I’m just saying it’s possible. Regardless, if Ovechkin can average 40 goals a year for the next four years, he’ll have passed Gordie Howe on the all-time goal scoring list and will be about 80 goals behind Wayne Gretzky for the all-time record.

Of course, the major wrench that could be thrown in all this is the potential of a lockout after the 2019-20 season. Ovechkin already lost a season and a half to lockouts, which have cost him, what, about 60 goals by now? If we lose another season, that’ll make Ovechkin’s task even more difficult.

It could be very likely that in four years, we’re lamenting what could have been with Alex Ovechkin. His pursuit of Gretzky’s record could be one of the great record chases of this generation. Will Ovechkin have maintained his elite goal scoring prowess while not losing a season to the lockout? I’m hopeful, but the NHL’s history with labour negotiations is cause for concern.

Seattle

With Seattle getting an NHL franchise, the league will be at 32 teams. This new franchise is going to have the same rebuild rules as Vegas, so will the enjoy the same early success as Vegas?

I think to expect any expansion franchise to replicate the accomplishments of the Golden Knights through their first two seasons is expecting far too much. I think teams will have learned from this mistake. You won’t have teams ship out 30-goal scorers on bargain contracts (Florida), letting go of multiple young prospects to save one player (Minnesota), or over-paying to get rid of a bad contract (Columbus). Well, you probably won’t… shouldn’t? Regardless, I do think teams will learn from their mistakes and Seattle will be in for a rough early couple seasons.

This isn’t to say there won’t be hope. The end of the 2022-23 season will bring Seattle to the end of their second season. It’ll will probably be another year of missing playoffs, but they’ll have an absolutely loaded cupboard of prospects. There will be a lot of promise for the years that follow.

Seattle’s new franchise is going to go through growing pains that Vegas did not have to endure due unimaginably bad decisions across the league. But in four years, there will be promise of much better days ahead.

Those are a few things I’ll be looking for in four years. How about you? What stands out as something we accept now that’ll change in four years? What will be the same? Hit up the comments.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-draft-lottery-lineup-news-looking-ahead-april-10/

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