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coinprojects · 3 years ago

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New Post has been published on https://coinprojects.net/why-blockchain-has-not-yet-become-widely-used-and-what-will-it-take-to-make-it-happen/

Why blockchain has not yet become widely used and what will it take to make it happen?

Are considerations of vitality shortage holding blockchain expertise again?

New discoveries in science and expertise sometimes include hopes of fast adaptation. Issues hardly ever work out that method. A basic logic/math mannequin can predict this outcome, often called the “Anna Karenina Precept.” This basic precept states: “A deficiency in any one in all various components dooms an endeavor to failure.”

Initially theorized from Leo Tolstoy’s, “Anna Karenina (1877),”1 which opens, “All joyful households are alike; every sad household is sad in its personal method.” Think about the idea that joyful households share widespread attributes which result in happiness, whereas totally different attributes could trigger unhappiness, thus, failure. In blockchain technology, we really feel the attributes of Vitality Consumption, Governance and Politics, Regulatory Compliance Consulting, Timing, and Know-how are paramount attributes to contemplate.

We view blockchain by means of a similar lens to Tolstoy’s work. Think about resemblance between blockchain and business professionals as members of a not fairly joyful household. This household (monetary and business transactions business) have inside it a youngster named Blockchain. It’s irritating for mature relations to look at powerlessly as this teen tries to seek out her method in life. Their pure response is to seize for management, scale back impartial decisions and compound the frustration. This widespread story is much more irritating for the teenager, filled with artistic vitality and fervour however missing in clear route as a consequence of a basic lack of related expertise. However our teen is defiant to permit her desires to be stifled, inflicting cycles of but extra energy grabbing and frustration. We talk about challenges and advise this “teenager” to assist discover the surroundings during which the household will be joyful. To assist the teenager keep away from self-destruction alongside the best way, and nonetheless enable house for artistic improvement, we provide this primary of a collection of articles that deal with what we imagine defines blockchain’s present challenges and provide strategies to maneuver round them to realize full potential as an necessary contributor to enterprise and society. Let’s look at Vitality Consumption.

Vitality consumption considerations: “Solely entropy comes straightforward”2

Entropy merely defines how a system left unconstrained will search to randomly dispersed into chaos. For blockchain, the order is maintained by timestamping transactions as they’re recorded and that requires assets to keep up them within the type of electrical vitality.

In early civilization, the world appeared to carry an infinite wealth of assets and it appeared unimaginable for individuals to see how they might actually trigger irreparable harm. In latest historical past, we overcame obstacles and used assets to constrain chaos and create luxurious lives in probably the most inhospitable locations on earth—sizzling and humid Florida, the dry deserts of Arizona and the snowy mountains of Alaska. Growing areas of the world combat to “catch-up” to the next lifestyle by investing extra in “old fashioned” energy technology utilizing extra assets, sometimes within the type of restricted fossil fuels.

Supply: Statista

Now, competing for restricted vitality comes blockchain. Launched as “feedback” in supply code for Bitcoin in January 2009, blockchain expertise has now grow to be its personal related expertise demanding a share of the world’s electrical energy. Nobody predicted the urge for food of this new expertise to eat vitality like a baby consuming sweet. In reality, Bitcoin is now calculated to eat extra vitality than the whole nation of Sweden every day, and rising.

A couple of large-scale mining operations have emerged and consolidated. An emergent dilemma nevertheless is that miners measure success by what number of nodes they personal and management, not how environment friendly they’re. They exist to earn a living on a expertise they assume can be sustainable with a continuing supply of reasonably priced electrical energy. We see this perception as naïve and irrational with out holding management over the useful resource offering their presence (specifically: sustainable, reasonably priced, and dependable energy provide into perpetuity). As future functions demand extra “clear vitality,” sustainable clear vitality will grow to be more and more uncommon, the value will improve and blockchain can be put to a check: can it proceed with unavoidable rising vitality value.

Most vitality utilized by blockchain goes to sustaining the mining. Nevertheless, we don’t imagine this can all the time be the case. Sooner or later, managing transactions will grow to be the key vitality requisite. It should grow to be apparent that immutable databases like a blockchain ledger are costly to keep up and “learn solely” queries will create bottlenecks as they compete with “insert new block” queries for vitality.

Supply: Wikipedia

As the price of vitality to maintain blockchain will increase, this value will grow to be a big burden. In equity, we really feel it ought to be paid for by these benefiting from the use in proportion to their degree of consumption. Doable options embody constructing non-public, devoted energy sources, or “energy hubs,” designed ground-up to serve the blockchain vitality demand, OUTSIDE of the traditional, public energy grid as their main function. These energy hubs should be funded privately utilizing superior, environment friendly, dependable, and renewable energy technology strategies. Funding of hubs could also be recovered by charging a payment on every transaction (“learn solely” and “insert new block”) into perpetuity. The funding mannequin we suggest is essentially totally different from the up to date view during which “learn solely” queries are free. This can be a mindset shift to make certain, however we imagine it creates a extra truthful and equitable strategy to managing the entropy inside blockchain, by being constructed and paid for in a good and sustainable foundation.

Since constructing energy sources shouldn’t be straightforward or cheap, entrepreneurial traders could be required. This requires incentivized non-public members with important wealth to commit and cooperate in managing the dangers/rewards. We envision hubs naturally creating in historically free societies to keep away from being overpowered and consumed by exploitive and corrupt political extremes. These issues will stay necessary to guard the entire blockchain business from collapse or threats as world politics evolves. Initially, energy hubs should be developed inside current legal guidelines to ensure stability and guarantee probably longevity, however the system should additionally acknowledge that even probably the most steady programs can grow to be influenced, corrupt, and unstable in a long-range view.

Clearly, questions of energy hub design location stay open. Options to utilizing the prevailing public energy grid for vitality, turning into impartial from geopolitics, overbearing influences can be examined in additional element to comply with. Along with the issues of Vitality Consumption, we plan to debate Governance and Politics, Regulatory Compliance Consulting, Timing, and Know-how in subsequent articles and encourage you to contemplate our opinions on these arguments and different attainable attributes that give clues as to why blockchain has not but grow to be broadly used and what it’s going to take.

***

[1] – Leo Tolstoy, creator 1877 novel “Anna Karenina,” revealed 1878 by The Russian Messenger

[2] Entropy – Entropy is rooted within the 2nd legislation of thermodynamics which states dysfunction, characterised as a amount (entropy) all the time tends to extend. A easy clarification is issues containing an extra of vitality above a pure state (sizzling) have a tendency in direction of the pure vitality state (cool) over time in an surroundings during which to settle (no extra vitality added). Analogous is that knowledge will naturally search to settle in secure harbors (blocks). Reference: NewScientist

New to Bitcoin? Take a look at CoinGeek’s Bitcoin for Beginners part, the final word useful resource information to be taught extra about Bitcoin—as initially envisioned by Satoshi Nakamoto—and blockchain.

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khalilhumam · 4 years ago

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States can pave the way on closing the racial wealth gap

New Post has been published on http://khalilhumam.com/states-can-pave-the-way-on-closing-the-racial-wealth-gap/

States can pave the way on closing the racial wealth gap

By Jazz Lewis Racial inequality, be that in housing, education, jobs, or our justice system, is holding back our economy and limiting the realization of the American Dream. Too often, gridlock on Capitol Hill does not address these challenges head-on, allowing them to grow into more significant problems. State governments, our laboratories of democracies, have a much-needed role in leading the way. As we have seen, the pandemic affects everyone; however, it does not affect everyone to the same degree. As reported by the University of California at Santa Cruz, over 41% of business closures since the start of the pandemic have been by black-owned businesses, despite black companies making up less than 3% of total companies in the nation. Over the same period, just 17% of white-owned businesses closed. Wealth, a critical measure of success, aids families in weathering unforeseen circumstances and crises, and not having it can have dire consequences for families, but also our economy as a whole. As stated in a report recently released by Citi, racial inequality, specifically as it relates to Black Americans, has cost our economy over $16 trillion over the last 20 years. The nation wasn’t doing well on addressing gaps in racial inequality before the pandemic. Now it is getting worse. How did we get here? We got here by public policy. From our nation’s original sin of slavery to racial discrimination in the years since, our economy has missed out on minorities achieving their wage potential and all the growth that would have come with that. For example, the Social Security Act of 1935, hailed as a great innovation in aiding everyday Americans, prevented farmworkers and domestic workers such as nannies and house cleaners from receiving benefits. Farmworkers and nannies were occupations oversaturated with low-income black workers. The G.I. Bill covered the college education cost for soldiers returning from WWII and paid the down payment cost for a home. However, due to local zoning ordinances, minorities could not actualize these benefits and, until Brown vs. Board of Education and the preceding cases building up to it, Blacks could not enter many of the top schools in the nation either. Today, policies allow corporations to dislodge debt and file for bankruptcy while those burdened by student loan debt face steep barriers to doing the same thing. In 1989, student loan debt was more comparable between white and nonwhite families. At present, Blacks outpace white families in student loan amounts and the total share of total student loan dollars owed. Blacks and Latinos homeownership rates lag behind whites for many reasons already shared. Limited income and inherited wealth limit the ability to save for a down payment or survive an emergency. Lastly, quality, affordable healthcare continues to be out of reach for many low-income communities due to cost and because healthcare is connected to employment. Black and Latino workers are the most likely to be laid off during a pandemic, due to overrepresentation in fields such as hospitality, and are most at risk of losing health care. Why state and local governments matter? States have always been our nation’s laboratories for democracy on issues of economic development to labor reform, healthcare, and environmental protection. The gridlock in our nation’s capital slows the progress needed to address the challenges of today. States must work together to lead when Washington cannot. I represent the 24th Legislative District in Prince George’s County, Maryland, the nation’s wealthiest predominantly black county. Even here, a decade after the recession, we are still struggling with the effects of predatory loans and suppressed home values. Access to quality healthcare for minorities can still be challenging. For example, the life expectancy of predominantly African American Suitland is 70 years, compared to 86 years in predominantly white Greenbelt. Our state, one of the most diverse in the nation, is at a disproportionate risk for the effects of exacerbated racial inequality, given our diversity. Our community cannot wait for change on Capitol Hill. We will need to get it done in Annapolis, our state capitol. What can we do about it? The most effective wealth-building tool today is starting a business or purchasing a home. States must increase the flow of capital to minority business owners, and I advocate for states to utilize diverse public pension fund managers to do just that. According to Pensions and Investments, in 2018, the top 1000 retirement funds’ assets reached a record of $10 trillion. As reported by the Black Economic Alliance, minority-owned equity firms represented 34% of the top quintile of performers but managed less than 1% of available capital. States should establish a domestic emerging market fund manager, a person more likely to invest and allocate capital in non-traditional low income urban and rural communities, to increase the flow of capital to minorities. These public pension funds must work in conjunction with opportunity zones to increase capital flow to the small businesses and housing developments most in need. We must also use state tax credits to help scale alternative financing options for minority communities. Financial Technology firms (FinTech), Community Development Financial Institutions, Credit Unions, and Minority Depository institutions outperform traditional banks in providing loans and credit to minorities and low-income communities across both urban and rural areas. Further, we must create incentives to develop new housing options for low to moderate-income families in “high opportunity, low poverty” neighborhoods. Data shows that providing vouchers for low-income families to move to “high opportunity” communities can influence the lifetime earnings of the children. We must also develop current neighborhoods through school improvements. Education is the great equalizer, but the cost-benefit of attending college is becoming too expensive for everyday Americans, particularly most minorities. States must use their budgets to reduce student debt reliance by supporting more short-term occupation-specific certifications over traditional college and making community college free for all. Further, creating universal child savings accounts, paired with baby bonds as proposed by Sen. Cory Booker for families in the bottom 20% of incomes, will help increase intergenerational social mobility by giving assets to the next generation when they need it most. States should also institute auto-expungement policies such as those established in Pennsylvania by Gov. Tom Wolf and Rep. Jordan Harris to allow low-level offenders to reenter the job market without the scarlet letter of a criminal conviction holding back their earning potential. The collateral consequences of a criminal conviction prohibit access to Pell grants, housing relief, and much more. Altogether, the time to build our nation back better begins now, and our states have the opportunity to lead the way. We need not wait any longer to address the ramifications of inequality. We need to muster the political will to unleash the full force of our economy and our democracy by ensuring the American dream, a dream of equal opportunity for all, is indeed real for everyone. Delegate Jazz Lewis represents Maryland’s 24th Legislative District, currently serves on the House Judiciary Committee as Chair of the Family Law Subcommittee, and is the Chair of the Maryland House Democratic Caucus.

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easyfoodnetwork · 4 years ago

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‘Food Is Political. It’s a Part of Our DNA.’

Devita Davison, executive director of FoodLab Detroit, has long advocated for an equitable and sustainable restaurant industry. She still sees a lot of work to do.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the continuously volatile political environment have centered Americans’ focus on vast fissures in systems of government, capitalism, and inequality. Throughout the spring and summer, it spurred grassroots activism and uprisings calling for racial justice across the country. Every industry — but especially the food industry — has been impacted by these upheavals. Businesses are closing at a high rate due to diminished income. Service workers have lost their jobs or are put in harm’s way to make ends meet. And those strains are sparking a reckoning that’s challenging past systems for how businesses operated and treated their staff. For many people in the restaurant world observing the social and economic climate of the last few months, this moment feels pivotal. Could a better food system be on the horizon?

Devita Davison is an activist and executive director of FoodLab Detroit, an organization established to support independent food businesses while exploring models that create a more equitable and sustainable environment for employees, producers, and the people in the community. A native of one of the Blackest cities in America, with deep roots in activism and food sovereignty, Davison has the benefit of a long perspective on food movements and economies. Last year, based on a series of talks with women working in Detroit’s dining scene, FoodLab published A Seat at the Table, a solutions-based guide to building a better food industry. In 2020, the organization also launched a fellowship program to explore opportunities for a radically different way of eating and providing hospitality.

Eater spoke with Davison about what she sees as the primary issues in the food industry in Detroit and beyond right now, and whether she thinks this is the moment in history when a new, more equitable system will emerge as a dominant vision for the restaurant world. She also touches on what, for some reason, continues to be a sensitive subject for some: Is food political? Spoiler: It always has been.

Eater: Where are some of the issues you see in the restaurant world right now, and are there opportunities to change them?

Devita Davison: We can’t have a conversation about restaurants in a bubble. We have to think about it as an ecosystem. You can’t talk about reimagining the [restaurant industry] without thinking about how landlords and real estate play such a huge part. Rents are so exorbitant, which is one of the reasons why restaurants struggle just to break even sometimes. If we’re really going to think about what transformation and opportunity look like, what does it look like within the context of having spaces that restaurateurs and chefs could afford? Does that model look like ownership [or] cooperative ownership? What does it look like to be able to be successful? Do restaurants have to be brick and mortar? What does “restauranting” mean outside of the walls of a brick-and-mortar restaurant?

You can’t talk about restaurants [without thinking about] who gets attention and who doesn’t. You have to think about providing restaurateurs and chefs with the ability to democratize narratives of storytelling. Who gets to tell that story and how would a chef or restaurant tell the story?

Lastly, when we see the growth of some of these restaurants, especially within the last two or three years, you have to look at where funding is coming from. A lot is coming from private equity firms, which are basically turning restaurants into short-term investment tools. It is those people that are causing the most harm in our communities, especially when they partner with developers and [become] a part of a strategy for this new luxury high-rise that’s going into communities. They’re not taking the community into consideration. The mindset is that if it is not profitable, it does not belong in this community.

How do small restaurants in Detroit fight back against that during a pandemic and a challenging economy right now? How are we going to make sure that there are still independent restaurants at the end of this that are working toward more ethical models and doing things better for their workers?

It’s complicated. Because by the time we see an artisanal coffee shop or farm-to-table restaurant or an Italian mercado, or even Whole Foods, for that matter, enter in some of these neighborhoods in the city of Detroit, we need to understand that there were policies already put in place behind the scenes long before you saw that development in your community.

We can now see the transformation of Midtown, and the gentrification of Midtown, or, for that matter, the entire 7.2 square miles of Greater Downtown, including Midtown, Woodbridge, Corktown, Eastern Market, Downtown. Yes, we see it now. But [what] we see now was in the works 15 [or] 20 years ago.

The reason why I mention this as you talk about the role of restaurateurs is [that] restaurateurs should not bear this burden alone. It takes active participation and involvement with the community. If you value locally owned restaurants, if you value the opportunity for your neighbors to open up small businesses in your neighborhood, [then] you have to value and understand how real estate and capital works. And that is influenced by the laws and policies we vote for.

A lot of folks misunderstand how the cycle and the process of gentrification works. Should I blame, fight, and point the finger at a chef or a restaurateur who’s a part of a development project that the city of Detroit has enticed and lured, who was given developer tax abatements and developer subsidies? Should I blame the restaurateur for that? Or should we be checking the developer? Or should we be checking the city council? Or the mayor? Why is it that this developer and his project have been subsidized, but every day, I’m struggling and fighting for BIPOC owners to get access to the capital that they need, so that they can open up their own restaurants in their communities and neighborhoods?

“You can’t talk about climate change without talking about food. You can’t talk about immigration without talking about food.”

I don’t really like the [phrase] social distancing. I prefer physical distancing, because we’re physically distancing ourselves from one another so that we can all be safe and fight this pandemic. I don’t think we’re socially distancing ourselves. We’re finding new ways to use technology to bring us even closer together. But here’s the thing: The phenomenon around physical distancing has been something that Black, Indigenous, and people of color business owners have been dealing with since the violent precision of housing policies that redlined and segregated our communities from one another. For decades, we’ve been physically distanced from one another.

When I think about what it looks like in five and 10 years and how we sustain these restaurants and our neighborhoods and our communities… it’s going to be a competition for resources. So, how do we make sure that we value the restaurant, the deli, the takeout spot, the delivery spot, just as much as we value NoHo Hospitality coming downtown and being a part of the Shinola Hotel? And value them so much that we are able to give them some tax abatements, some credits, some resources. Because they’re caregivers of our community. They’re hiring some of the most vulnerable workers: Folks who may not have a license and can’t drive; people who may be returning citizens; people who are elderly and want to go to work and people who are disabled and want to live a couple of blocks from the place they work. How are we ensuring that they get the same amount of resources? That’s what I’m thinking.

Where do you see the Detroit community and its restaurant industry fitting into the world of politics and advocacy?

I do believe — and the work of FoodLab [believes] — that yes, you can begin to cultivate, nourish, and provide an education through generations of cooks and chefs who actually know that there is a possibility that we can educate a collective group of people or customers beyond just acclamations and awards.

Here’s the thing. You’re talking to someone who is a native Detroiter, born and raised, an African-American woman where food has always been political. You’re talking to someone who is the manifestation of the dreams of her ancestors, as we laid one of our elders to rest yesterday: John Lewis.

You think about how he got his start as an organizer, as an activist in his group, SNCC, which was a group of college students who performed sit-ins. Where did they do their sit-ins? At lunch counters where they weren’t allowed to sit and order. And it was those students who were just like, “What we’re going to do is we’re going to take a place like a lunch counter, and this is where we are going to take the fight.” So, of course, I think food is political. It’s a part of our DNA.

Here in Detroit, oh, my god. Of course. Our food is wrapped up into the radicalization of a food movement, starting with the Gardening Angels that was started by a group of elders who didn’t have the language — that didn’t understand urban agriculture at this time — [that didn’t know] Detroit was going to be the epicenter. They just knew that there were hungry babies and hungry families, and they knew how to grow food.

Gardening Angels started growing food in vacant lots and side lots and in their backyards. Coleman Young [Detroit’s first Black mayor] actually saw this happening and was like, “Wait a minute. The elders are onto something. How can the city begin to provide them with the resources to grow and develop this program?” Then, he started the Farm-A-Lot Program for the city of Detroit. He provided tools and resources and seeds to Detroiters so that they can grow their own food. And now you have the DBCFSN (Detroit Black Community Food Security Network) with Malik Yakini and the whole organization is sitting with farms on what, seven acres. They’re now building a grocery store cooperative, and that goes hand in hand with the workers that Mama Jerry Hebron is doing, which goes hand in hand with the work that the Keep Growing Detroit team is doing. So, food in Detroit has always been political, so much so that the goal in Detroit is food sovereignty. We want to control the food that we grow and ensure that it stays in Detroit.

That’s why I’m just baffled that some can say that food is not political when it’s tied to every policy that you can imagine. You can’t talk about climate change without talking about food. You can’t talk about immigration without talking about food. It is at the intersection of everything. I think sometimes the best way to explain policy and the importance of good policy is to describe it through the context and through the lens of food.

Based on what you’ve observed during this crisis, do you think that restaurant workers or people who own restaurants are going to become more instrumental in effecting actual policy change?

[In the past few months,] the immediate thing that [the industry] thought about was that we need assistance from the federal government to help save our industry. Makes sense. Absolutely. If they’re saving the airline industry, if they’re saving the cruise industry, lobby the federal government. Then [Tom] Colicchio goes on to say that they formed the Independent Restaurant [Coalition] almost overnight: They started calling their friends in PR, hired a lobbying firm, hired a communications firm, and voila! Overnight! They had this group that was altogether that was going to be lobbying to save independent restaurants. And I thought to myself, well, damn. Don’t tell me what they can’t do. Because they have the resources to become politically active.

But what scares me is they began to center their activism around Paycheck Protection Program dollars: How can we begin to bend and stretch and change PPP to ensure that we are included? The problem is that those who are clamoring for PPP adjustments for bailouts — the reason that they allowed this was because they were the ones that were going to reap the rewards of this multibillion-dollar transfer of money like we’ve never seen before.

“Certain people in this country have always used and occupied restaurant spaces as a manifestation of their privilege.”

What scares me is they’re lobbying for this transfer of dollars, this transfer of power, this transfer of additional wealth to a small number of people that is not going to impact their workers. This is the owner class. These are the people who actually own a restaurant lobbying to make their food, to maintain their power.

They’re not lobbying on the behalf of the industry to save the most vulnerable — the workers. So, yes, I do see them organizing, but I don’t see the organizing for the advancement, care, and maintenance of restaurant workers. I see them becoming more politically active, but they’re doing so for their own enrichment, and that’s the scary part to me.

Are you hopeful for the future at this point in time?

I think about that all of the time: Am I hopeful? I see fantastic stories [about] chefs leaning into a tried-and-true practice that African Americans have relied on since we were brought to this country as slaves — and that tool is mutual aid and solidarity. Every time I see chefs leaning into mutual aid and solidarity around using their kitchens and their spaces to cook for our most vulnerable populations, they are taking care of homeless communities, they are feeding the poor, they are feeding frontline workers, they are literally putting their bodies on the line, and I think, “Oh, my god.” Chefs are doing what they do best, and that is feeding people. Every time I talk with our cohort members, it’s, “Oh, my god, change is going to happen.”

But every time I feel this sense of hopefulness and joy, I also read a story about a freaking customer who will just not put on a goddamn mask, who will go into a restaurant and curse out a bartender or front-of-house worker and be pissed that they can’t do what they want to do in this space. I’m reminded of the fact that certain people in this country have always used and occupied restaurant spaces as a manifestation of their privilege. A part of that is treating people any damn way you feel like. And that’s unacceptable to me.

Then my heart hardens because, in order for this restaurant industry to change, it cannot just be workers. It can’t just be restaurateurs. The public also has to be a part of this change. We can’t begin to talk about dismantling or transforming unless there are changes along the supply chain, unless there are changes within that ecosystem itself. And that ecosystem is so big.

I think that we will be influenced by some restaurateurs who want to do better. But what I’m hoping is that they set the standard, that they are the ones that are looked up to, and the people that don’t live up to these expectations will be the ones who will be shamed.

And the restaurateurs who do change, who are a part of this restauranting at the intersection of people and planet as well as profit, they’ll be the ones setting the bar. I think I’ll see that in my lifetime, as opposed to a true transformation of the entire industry. That’s the only thing I can hope for at this time, is to continue to surround myself with those individuals who are trying to do the right thing, and they become a part of my tribe. They are part of my community. These are the people I look to, the people I support, the folks who I will spend my money on every day. Those are the people I who evangelize on their behalf.

from Eater - All https://ift.tt/3iLuG5g https://ift.tt/3mIuCWf

Devita Davison, executive director of FoodLab Detroit, has long advocated for an equitable and sustainable restaurant industry. She still sees a lot of work to do.

Eater: Where are some of the issues you see in the restaurant world right now, and are there opportunities to change them?

“You can’t talk about climate change without talking about food. You can’t talk about immigration without talking about food.”

Where do you see the Detroit community and its restaurant industry fitting into the world of politics and advocacy?

Based on what you’ve observed during this crisis, do you think that restaurant workers or people who own restaurants are going to become more instrumental in effecting actual policy change?

“Certain people in this country have always used and occupied restaurant spaces as a manifestation of their privilege.”

Are you hopeful for the future at this point in time?

from Eater - All https://ift.tt/3iLuG5g via Blogger https://ift.tt/3kCONmC

#Blogger #cooking #Eater #food #recipes

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fernandesamelia63-blog · 5 years ago

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Becoming a parent is a life-changing event and suddenly, you realize that you are not only responsible for yourself but someone else as well. Along with joy and excitement, this new addition to your family will also bring changes in your finances. In a developing country like India where the cost of living keeps on rising spontaneously, raising a kid and managing finances can be a tough task.

You might have well-prepared yourself for a financially tough situation by calculating and planning on the expenses incurred when your baby is born, but you are sure to face certain challenges. You must have made a note of the basic expenses like diapers, wipes, food supplies, vaccines, etc. and you might feel that you are saving something. However, on a close study of your finances, you find that there have been only expenses but no savings at all after your little bundle of joy has arrived. You might wonder, even after financial planning, how this is happening? This is because you have prepared yourself for the obvious changes but not for those which are unforeseen or unexpected.

After you have entered into this new phase of your life, the expenses can never be planned. You can only make a rough plan about the most expected expenses and a rough estimate of the expenses. However, to be completely calculative and fully prepared for all expenses related to your kids is quite difficult.

The life-cycle of a parent

Life, after you become a parent, is a vicious circle; the responsibilities and duties never tend to finish. Your responsibilities go on increasing with every single day and you need to make proper planning to bear all these responsibilities well off.

Stage #1: Newborn

This stage is just the beginning and you are not much experienced. Despite all the planning, your expenses will always be high during this stage. In addition to the maternity expenses, there are various other expenses associated with this stage. The food supplies of the newborn baby, the diapers, baby clothes, baby nursery, toiletries, vaccines, etc. are quite expensive and could be a reason to hamper your budget.

Stage #2: Infant

This period of your baby includes approximately the initial two years of your baby and there are quite several major expenses during this period. Again, the major items of expenditure during this period would also be the diapers and wipes of your baby. Your little one will be using a huge number of diapers and wipes during this period and these products are expensive.

You will also feel like renovating the nursery of your baby and bringing in new items always. Your baby will slowly start responding towards toys and try to play with them. You would think about purchasing new toys of different varieties for helping your baby feel delighted and also for the improvement in his reflexes. With varieties of toys, clothes, toiletries (skincare products, lotions, soaps, creams, etc.) and accessories available in the market for babies; it is quite obvious for you to feel like purchasing everything for your baby. Here, you need to be careful about your budget and try spending on those items which are essential rather than on unnecessary commodities. Moreover, your baby’s vaccines and health care is another area of expenditure. By now, you must have included your baby into your health insurance plan and must be paying an additional premium for him.

Stage #3: Toddler

Similarly, in this phase, there will be certain expenses associated with toiletries, clothes, food items, etc. In this phase, your child will have to start experiencing the taste of all food items and also eat a healthy and nutritional diet. Apart from the fruits, vegetables which are consumed daily other food products for babies like milk powder, baby food must be procured and these items will add up to your expenses.

Stage #4: School going kids

Now, this is a completely new phase of your child’s life and there are many preparations needed for this phase. Admission into a new school, school uniform, books, notebooks, bag, transportation and many more; the list seems to be endless. All these arrangements will need a lot of effort and money, and these expenses will go on increasing every single day. You need to have a proper plan to meet these expenses once your kid reaches this phase.

Stage #5: Tween

This phase usually starts from 9 years of age to 12 years. During this period, your kid will no longer be considered as a child and he would not be a teenager by then even. In this phase, there would be a lot of behavioural changes in your kid as he will come across many new things around himself. Nowadays, kids come across many expensive items around themselves such as video games, gadgets, etc. through the internet or friends. You must be able to make your kid understand the underlying difference between needs and wants.

Stage #6: Teenager

Now, it is the time for career building, higher education and other growth prospects associated with your child’s life. He will have to opt for the career of his choice and education is expensive today! Apart from that, nowadays teenagers have their own friends circle and have their expenses as well. You need to give pocket-money to your child regularly but it should be within a specific limit.

Stage #7: Young Adults + Single

The responsibilities and duties of parents never tend to finish. Even, when your children have grown up you feel you have certain responsibilities towards them. You save or create funds for their higher education, wedding or plan to gift a house to them in the future. These are big financial goals and you need to plan for this for long.

Stage #8: Married children with grandchildren

Even if your children are married and have their children your responsibilities never tend to cease. There might be instances in which due to any unfortunate incidents, your divorced children might need your financial help. You can even plan to leave a legacy for your grandchildren by purchasing a life insurance policy early in your life which grows as your grandchildren grow.

So, when you are a parent you will have to bear your responsibilities till the end and this entire process needs money for which you have to make proper financial planning.

Education Inflation in India

In India, the cost of education is increasing at a very rapid speed. Beginning from primary education, secondary education, and then higher education; it has become quite difficult for parents in India to finance the education of their children. On average, the education inflation rate in India on an annual basis is 10% – 12%. For a middle-class Indian parent, making their children educated by sending them to pioneer institutions is becoming a distant dream.

The cost of education in India is mostly affected by certain crucial factors such as tuition fees, accommodation charges, other expenses like transportation, utility, leisure, and recreational activities, etc. According to various surveys, the approximate cost of primary education in India is around Rs. 1, 92,000. For secondary education in a Government school, the approximate cost is Rs. 30,600, for private schools the cost is Rs. 3, 96,000 and is Rs. 1, 80,000 for those children who are studying in boarding schools. Furthermore, the cost of higher technical education is equally high in India and it is estimated and this rising trend in the cost of education is a serious problem for the parents in India.

However, for higher education and further studies, there are alternative options available like education loans which are a great help for a common man. But, an education loan can be only used to fulfil the gap present between the actual requirement and the savings you have made. As a parent, you need to make plans for the education of your child from the beginning itself so that you have a corpus ready by the time your kid needs it.

Education Planning for your Kids in 2020

Let us have a look at the steps involved in planning for the higher education of kids.

Step#1: Make a plan

This is highly essential as the cost of education in India is soaring high. You can select some of the best career options available and estimate their current costs. You can calculate the approximate cost by calculating inflation of around 8%-10%. Now, you will have to start investing for this purpose every month. If you are estimating the cost of some of the very popular technical or even non-technical courses; you can invest at least Rs. 3500-Rs.4000 on an average per month from now onwards. The sooner you make a plan and start saving, the sooner a corpus would be built for your child and would be helpful for your child.

Step#2: Separate investment portfolio for your child’s education

You should create a different portfolio that would be dedicated only to the expenses of the education of your child. Separate investment buckets must be created for those education expenses which can arise either in the short term, medium-term or long term. Your investment portfolio must consist of equity-oriented investments such as equity mutual funds for the long term educational expenses, ULIPs and PPF account which can be used to bear the educational expenses of your child.

Step#3: Insure yourself

You need to insure yourself with a Term Plan until your child’s education is not complete so that your child’s education is not hampered even if you were to meet with an unfortunate death.

Also, you may consider opting for a ULIP(Unit Linked Insurance Plan) in your life with a waiver of premium wherein you can choose your investment portfolio and get mark-to-market returns. A child ULIP gives your insurance coverage for your life along with investment opportunity. The premium waiver benefit comes handy if the policyholder happens to die within the policy, the policy would still continue as per the schedule, the premiums would be waived off and the maturity benefit would be paid to the child if

You can consider investing in child ULIPs which has the feature of waiver of premium so that your child will obtain the necessary amount at the desired age. If you are interested to obtain maximum benefits in the long-term then the most preferable option is the Equity fund option. Child ULIPs will give a lump sum amount to your child in case of your demise and the company keeps on continuing the investment on behalf of the policyholder. Moreover, you should also ensure that you have a pure term insurance plan so that your child’s education is not hampered in case of any unfortunate event.

4. Mutual Funds

You can initiate the savings plan for the higher education of your child by purchasing SIP in a 2-4 equity-oriented mutual fund scheme which has an amalgamation of mid-cap and large-cap funds. You can keep on adding additional money received as gifts by your child. Also, investing through ELSS (Equity Linked Savings Scheme) is another good option as it helps in saving tax too. Suppose, your child needs the money for the educational goal in 3 years-5 years then you can opt for SIPs in balanced funds and if the requirement is far off then investment into SIPs in mid-cap and large equity funds are appropriate.

5. PPF

You can also start the investment for your child’s higher education by opening a PPF Account (Public Provident Fund) Account in the name of your child. The PPF scheme is for 15 years and would help in creating a corpus for your child’s higher education. Moreover, PPF investment is a tax-free investment strategy and you can withdraw money from the account in the seventh year depending on the requirements of your child. You can even extend the account once your child is above 18 years of age and starts contributing to the PPF account.

6. Gold ETFs

Gold ETFs stand for Gold Exchange Traded Funds. These are the units of Mutual Funds and each unit is equivalent to one gram of gold. These are also known as paper gold and the buying, selling procedure is the same as that of any mutual funds through a demat account. Better liquidity is offered by Gold ETFs and these Gold ETFs will take care of problems like high making charges, purity problems, and safekeeping.

7. Stocks and ETFs

Stocks give high returns over a longer duration of time but have risk factors associated with them. ETFs hold various assets like stocks, commodities or bonds which are closer to their Net Set Value. These are highly transparent and cost-effective investments.

Keeping kids expenses separate

Another method of managing finances for your kids is by keeping the expenses of your kids separate. This can be done by opening a separate joint account for your child and keeping his expenses different from the rest of your expenses. Usually, joint accounts are meant for those persons who will be similarly spending money and will have the same goal to meet.

By opening a joint account for the expenses of your child, you will be able to have the below-mentioned advantages.

It will be easier for both the parents to pay the fees and for the other academic expenses of the child.

If you and your spouse both are working and contribute towards the child’s expenses; then you and your spouse can deposit your share into the joint account for your child’s expenses. This avoids the cumbersome procedure of sending money to each other for your kid’s expenses.

It can be ensured that the money which you both are contributing to the kid’s expenses is not being used for any other purpose.

Any withdrawal or transaction is done, both the parents will be aware of it and then there are no hidden secrets related to the money. So, you would not be encountering any surprises related to the money in the future.

Moreover, if there is a separate account made for your child’s expenditure then you can make some adjustments into your household budget for saving some money and it will not affect your kid.

Conclusion

Hence, after you have become a parent your entire world revolves around your children, their secured future and well-being. With the cost of living and the cost of education soaring high, it has become necessary to manage your finances judiciously after your children are born. Many people even start the saving process before the birth of their children. When you are creating separate accounts, separate savings funds or investment buckets for your children you should never use it for any other purposes or expenses. Even if there is some very urgent situation, you might drop your basic savings plan for the month; but you should never mess up with the money or fund you have created for the future of your children.

#financial planning #manage money #Education Planning for Kids #kids expenses

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breedavies · 7 years ago

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Vote, Baby. Vote.: Here’s How I Voted in the 2017 Denver Elections

Denver! Ballots are due by Tuesday, November 7th at 7pm. So far, voter turnout has been abysmal. Can we really allow a small percentage of our population to make the decisions as to how $937 million of our future money as a city is spent? I don't think so. We can do better!

Since many of you asked (and I'm so happy that you did!) what I think about the 2017 ballot, I wanted to share my reasoning for how/why I'm voting -- still, I encourage you to seek out sources for additional information so YOU can make the informed decisions that best represent your own views. Below my voting information, I’ve included some resources to guide you! ***I'm also not interested in debating:) This is how I voted and I encourage you to make your own decisions*** (p.s. I dunno if it needs to be said but these are MY views, not the views of any organization, group or business I may do work with or represent outside of social media, etc.) PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE VOTE. These elections are important and will have an impact on your life in Denver for generations to come. We are always talking about what is happening to this city and you actually have a chance to do something about it!

On twitter? let me know you voted and I will retweet you! @cocodavies

HOW TO VOTE:

You should have gotten a ballot in the mail. After you fill it out, go to

the Secretary of State’s website to find out where the nearest ballot drop-off is located.

It's super easy! Just put your address into the box marked "Where do I vote or drop off my ballot?" and it will tell you where the closest location is.

Please drop your ballot ON OR BEFORE 7p.m. on Tuesday, November 7th!

Here goes, in order of how issues appear on the ballot:

Denver Public Schools Director At-Large:

Maybe you're like me and don't have kids in DPS. Maybe you have kids but they go to private schools. Neither of these things matter -- YOU NEED TO HAVE A SAY IN WHO LEADS DPS.

Why? DPS is one of the largest employers in the state. The health of our public schools is often a good indicator of the health of our neighborhoods. Also, hi. Children are the literal future. We need them to have equitable access to all of the tools, resources and experiences they need to become great humans.

My vote is for: Julie Bañuelos

I'll let Julie say why:

"During my 15+ years with DPS, I’ve worked mostly with communities of color with large constituents of immigrants, students and families of English Language Learners – groups to whom I am still tied and who are most impacted by passionate teachers that invest not just their time, but also their souls to these academic and personal relationships."

Enough said. I was sold. Julie’s career has been equity-focused and she’s been on the ground working with the populations she will be serving. We need more people like Julie in office.

(NOTE: If you have an open seat in your district for school board, please see A+ Colorado's breakdown of each candidate on their website! I have a link below.)

Ok, so- The GO Bond:

Here's the "nobody reads paragraphs just gimme the votes" version:

2A- No

2B- No

2C- No

2D- No

2E- Yes

2F- Yes

2G- No

2H- Yes

I-300- Yes

::::::::::::::::And here's the blowhard version of my votes:::::::::::::::::

GO Bond: some thoughts

This was tough. I am beyond disappointed that not a drop of money could have been set aside for affordable housing. That, and I was also inundated with materials from the city pushing me to vote yes on all measures; in fact, the city spent $2.4 MILLION on the campaign to push this through, a campaign that was unopposed, by the way, so they technically could have spent nothing. (I'm also including a link below to all of the donors who contributed to this campaign, because they will no doubt be donating to Hancock's re-election campaign, so get ready for that nightmare.)

My burning question with the GO Bond as a whole: With all of these "improvements" promised to be made with almost a billion of our future tax dollars, will we be subsidizing our own displacement? Will these improvements only accelerate gentrification? I don't have a crystal ball. I can't tell. But I am skeptical.

I also straight up do not trust the current administration or city council with $937 million. We have multiple multi-billion dollar "shiny object" projects in the works already- the I-70 environmentally racist nightmare, the National Western

None of these projects have the most vulnerable people they will be negatively impacting in mind. I am scared for my city and our people. Money is seemingly everywhere, but we are losing our foundational folks because they cannot afford the basic necessities anymore.

2A- Denver Transportation & Mobility System Bonds - No.

I have no doubt this will pass. It doesn't need my vote to pass. But the refusal to consider housing as a part of the $431 million transit alone is unbelievable to me. I also don't trust that these projects will necessarily be fulfilled and I worry that those neighborhoods that need basics like sidewalks and safe crossings may never see them. I love you, transit lobby, and know you mean well. I wish you the best. You’ll be fine.

2B- Denver Cultural Facilities Bonds - No.

I know, you're thinking, like, what? Bree, you love arts & culture! You're an advocate for artists and the institutions that make our arts scene great! I'm all for supporting any entity that creates opportunities for folks to see/participate/experience/make art. But guess what?

We already passed the SCFD tax - that tax FUNDS THESE INSTITUTIONS. The large organizations (think the Denver Zoo, the DMNS, Botanic Gardens, the DAM, DCPA) get their own dang tax. They also have large donor bases. They also have marketing departments and funding streams small non-profits on the ground doing the hard work do not.

Until our smaller organizations get the funding they deserve, these cultural behemoths can take care of themselves.

2C - Denver Health and Hospital Authority Bonds- No.

It comes down to a total lack of trust in the finds actually being spent on these things promised. Shout out to Candi CdeBaca for her research on this one. I've linked her own voter guide below. Please read her POV on all of these issues.

2D- Denver Public Safety System Bonds - No.

It sucks that they lump fire stations in with police stations because I would have voted yes on this otherwise. But- fuck the police. Fuck the police state. Dismantle the system. No money to support a racist, classist unjust "justice" system.

2E- Denver Library System Bonds - Yes.

The library takes better care of our people than our government does (just see how they are taking an empathetic approach to the opioid crisis and our folks experiencing homelessness.) Libraries are *thankfully* hotbeds of radical liberalism and I love everything they do for our world. Knowledge is power. Librarians save lives.

2F- Denver Parks & Recreation System Bonds - Yes.

This was a toughie, ONLY because this is one of those instances where I am concerned we will be subsidizing displacement. When we make improvements to long neglected areas of the city, they often become flags for land-owners to wave to attract gentrification.

If Westwood finally gets its long-deserved rec center, will the folks/families who live there now get to see it come to fruition in five years? My friends working in land trust operations and food access say yes, our people will get to stay. I trust they are right because they work directly with the people.

I do not want to see what happened to the Northside happen to the Westside.

2G- Denver Public Facilities System Bonds - No.

I again referred to Candi on this one. She says the allotment of money is too vague and that's enough for me. Again, a lack of trust in our current administration is having a huge impact on how I'm voting -- which is a bummer, because they have so many tools at their disposal to make this city a more equitable place for all. Money just isn't the only tool.

Beyond the Bond:

Referred Question 2H- Yes.

I can only assume (hope?) adding more board members to an entity of this size will bring more voices to the table.

I-300- The Green Roof Initiative- Yes.

This requires builders to put money into investing in our future. It is a step toward an actually greener city. It was opposed by our mayor, which is disheartening. I believe that he is ok with spending our money as a city, but when builders are asked to put more money toward a better Denver, he's not interested in asking for that. Who he stands with says a lot about who he cares about.

Also, this was a citizen-led campaign. This is how much people care about a healthy future for Denver. (A link to the Green Roof Initiative is below, if you want a detailed explanation of what, exactly, the initiative will do, if passed.)

Resources:

Please, take a few minutes to read about each ballot issue so you can feel confident in the choices you make for the city of Denver. I’ve compiled a list of places I found good information to help me make my choices: In Denver’s at-large school board race, a familiar face and two challengers who want change via Melanie Asmar at Chalkbeat A+ Colorado's 2017 Denver Public Schools – School Board Candidate Survey GO? Or No GO?: A 2017 Denver Election Guide by Candi CdeBaca via Project VOYCE Your Denver 2017 Election Guide: What you need to know about ballot measures and school board candidates - via Erica Meltzer at Denverite Denver 2017 election guide: A $937 million bond package and the Green Roof Initiative are on the ballot via Jon Murray at The Denver Post A line-by-line look at the Mayor's recommended investments (where the GO Bond money is supposed to go if it all passes) Green Roof Initiative's breakdown of their proposal Ballotpedia’s breakdown of each measure And if you’re interested, here’s the campaign finance report for the entities/companies/people donated (to an unopposed campaign) Denver, please. Please vote.

xo b

#Denver #Denver Votes #Denver GO Bond #Denver Election 2017 #Our Denver Campaign #Denver School Board #denver green roof initiative

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a-path-beyond84 · 7 years ago

Note

Regarding your recent post responding to a Ben Shapiro video about Social Security: one, thank you for making it clear that statist policies aren't necessarily socialism, no matter how one might feel about them (seriously that's a pet peeve of mine); and two, out of curiosity, how WOULD you design SS to operate? I'm an econ/policy nerd and v interested in this sort of thing

I would have designed Social Security as primarily a savings program rather than a transfer program. It’s probably similar in a way to most of the proposals for privatization that were especially popular last decade, though I think my design would have higher savings and also a higher minimum benefit guaranteed by the government.

Currently, Social Security is funded by a tax of 6.2% of income paid by employee and employer, or 12.4% total, up to $127,200/yr. This level of tax is insufficient to keep Social Security solvent, but let’s ignore that for the time being. Suppose instead that 5.0% of the 6.2% (or 10.0% in total) was instead savings, which were invested into low cost index funds based on your age (a younger person would be almost entirely equity, with larger and larger bond allocations as the person ages). The remaining 1.2% from employer and employee (2.4% total) would go towards providing a benefit floor for those who couldn’t save enough. Most people who work full careers would be better off under this proposal in dollar terms. Secondarily, I would allow people to retire as long as their investments could produce an annuity which reached some minimum threshold, probably 125% of poverty. So, if your investments could provide a sufficiently large annuity payment at age 50, you could retire at 50 - and it wouldn't burden the government a cent, as your income is from your own savings.

The government would step and fill in the gap for people who weren’t able to save a sufficient amount by a certain threshold - either age (say, 65), disability or survivor status.

So let’s say a person reaches 65, and their savings can only generate an annuity of $10,000 a year, but 125% of poverty is $15,100/yr. What Social Security would do is to top off that annuity payment with an extra $5,100/yr, so that this person meets the minimum threshold. Same would hold for disability payments - if a person became disabled at age 38 and only could afford a $5,000/yr annuity for the remainder of his life, the government would top it off with an extra $10,100/yr.

So the government has a role to play, and the name ‘Social Security’ still fits, but it’s much more of a true safety net program than a public pension system. People are expected to carry their own weight, and the government only kicks in when, for whatever reason, their savings fall short. For this reason, the cost of the program in terms of direct government expenditures and taxes would be much smaller than Social Security as we know it today.

Let’s assume that a person managed to earn $40,000 from age 22 and every year throughout their career - a strange earning pattern but it keeps things mathematically simple. They save $4,000/yr, and let’s say they are able to earn a 5% real return. That person will have over $452,000 saved by age 59 and over $708,000 by today’s age of retirement of 67. At a real discount rate of 1.5%, that’s an annuity worth ~$22,000/yr at age 59 and ~$46,000/yr at age 67. This program would allow this person to retire early at age 59, or retire at the normal age with much more than Social Security would have provided.

Suppose 50% of people needed help from the government to top off their retirement annuities, and of these, they needed 50% of the promised benefit, and let’s say that there are 50 million adult beneficiaries with a promised benefit of $15,100/yr. In other words, 25 million adults need nothing because they were able to save enough to be above the threshold, and of the 25 million remaining adults, the government only needs to spend on average $7,550/yr. That would reduce full promised benefits from $755 billion to $188.8 billion, a 75% reduction.

Because some government support is required, there would still be some amount of taxation required, the 2.4% as mentioned above.

I see mostly advantages from this program:

a) Savings are better for the economy than taxes. Savings can help fund investment, and lower taxes mean less deadweight loss (or taxes can be diverted towards other priorities)

b) More flexibility for most people - they can decide to retire at a younger age with less or wait until they are 70 and receive far more than they would have under Social Security.

c) Promising 125% of the poverty level is a higher benefit level than the lowest Social Security payments today, so the worst off will be better off.

d) Social Security won’t be a burden on the government budget, and therefore will be far less likely to risk being cut.

There are several difficulties that need to be considered:

a) What to do about married couples, and more specifically for those who end up divorcing? I suggest have them provide 50% of their savings into their own account and 50% into their spouse’s account.

b) If there’s a depression and asset prices collapse, the government would end up footing most of the bill for at least a few years of retirees - though under the current system, Social Security would be extremely burdened under a depression scenario as well.

c) The most pressing problem is politics/fairness - the only way to transition to this system is to have one generation pay for their parents’ retirements while also saving for their own. During the transition generation, the tax portion would have to be much higher than the 2.4% I suggest - much closer to the amount that’s currently paid. It would have been easiest for the Baby Boom generation as they were numerous compared with their parents, but that ship has sailed.

In any case, these are just some thoughts I’ve had, there’s probably about 0.1% chance something like this would ever happen, and it would probably require some adjustments to actually put into practice, but I hope the broad outline makes sense. Have people save for themselves, the money is theirs, most will be better off, and protect people from very bad retirement outcomes at a much lower cost to the government.

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worldofwardcraft · 6 years ago

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The worst of the worst.

April 1, 2019

In a maladministration brimming over with shady grifters, crooked con artists, shameless liars and audacious thieves, you might think it a tough call to pick out the worst of the bunch. But, actually, it’s fairly easy. Without question, the most brazenly corrupt member of the Trump regime has to be Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross (pictured above eyeing a baby’s candy). Sure, it’s a high bar, but ol’ Wilbur clears it with room to spare.

Ross’s M.O. seems to be to siphon off a million here and a couple thousand there until pretty soon it adds up to real money. For example, upon being told that his connection to Navigator Holdings — a company linked to Russian thug/president Vlad Putin — was about to become public, Ross shorted about $100,000 of its stock. This relatively small (illegal insider) trade put between $3,000 and $10,000 in his pocket. Apparently, for a man Forbes estimates is worth some $700 million, no amount is too small to filch.

For years, Ross skimmed money from his investment firm, WL Ross, and has been sued for $20 million by its vice chairman, Peter Lusk, over allegedly trying to cut him out of its interests. He’s also being sued by David Storper, his former right-hand man, whose $4 million lawsuit charges that Ross stole Storper’s interests in a private equity fund, transferred them to himself, and then tried to cover it all up with bogus paperwork.

Ross reportedly bilked his company’s customers by charging management fees for investments whose value had declined based on their original value at purchase. Ross also skimmed company money by serving on the corporate boards of firms in its portfolio and pilfering the fees earned by doing so that were supposed to go to investors.

So has he changed his spots since becoming ComSec? What a quaint idea. Here’s Forbes again.

After assuring senators during his confirmation hearing that he would be overly cautious on ethical matters, Ross spent the majority of his first year in office as a business partner to the Chinese government, while he negotiated U.S.-China trade relations...And he took months to divest an interest in a foreign car parts manufacturer whose industry he is now investigating.

It’s hard to say exactly how much this world-class thief has made off with. But the lawsuit settlements, reimbursement payments and SEC fines against him alone add up to more than $120 million, making Ross possibly one of the biggest grifters in American history. Now do you understand why he’s in Trump’s Cabinet?

#wilbur ross #grifter #corruption

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jeffrmayhugh · 5 years ago

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Raoul Pal Makes His Bitcoin Price Prediction | Is More Than You Think!

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Okay. What is the risk reward upside. Well Bitcoin probably. 50 x 100 x Hey you what’s up guys. Despite the fact that Bitcoin dropped 50 percent recently I still remain very bullish over a long period of time. In this video Ali explain what happened with this recent 50 percent drop and then I will poll the CEO and co-founder of real vision who will explain his 50 to 100 x Bitcoin price prediction. Let’s take a quick look. What is going on with bitcoin market. Currently Bitcoin is straining over six thousand one hundred dollars. When this outbreak reached the United States some serious silos began to happen in different financial sectors. The S&P 500 dropped by 35 percent from top to bottom. Crude oil suffered the biggest losses. It dropped from six dollars a barrel to twenty dollars a barrel. That’s a 66 percent drop. Last time we have seen those prices back in 2001 which is almost 20 years ago. By the way recently I got some exposure to crude oil volatility. I believe in a year or two so it can be three to four x return on your investment and there is a Bitcoin. Bitcoin dropped from 10000 dollars to slightly below 5000 dollars and then it bounced back to the current price of six thousand dollars. That’s a 40 percent lowest since the beginning of this selloff. But what is very interesting about Bitcoin that most of the sell off did not come from the long term bitcoin holders. But it came from the short term speculators and relatively new traders Quinn metrics reviewed supply tracker how many old coins came back into circulation have they been on site for a specific period of time. For example 30 day review supply tracker how much supply is moved on on chain after been untouched for at least 30 day. If they look at their analysis as of March 11 the reports revealed that two hundred eighty one thousand BTC that were left untouched for at least 30 days was brought back into circulation which means short term speculators were most likely selling their bitcoins into the market. However from the stack of the bitcoin that had been on site for at least one year only four thousand one hundred thirty one BTC were released into circulation which means investors were holding in bitcoin for at least one year and most likely sold or moved 400 1 3 1 BTC into the market in the recent downturn. Investors who held bitcoin for at least three four or five years did not even touch their positions. Well it’s good to be one of them. Here is a slightly different chart that shows that March 11th was the fourth largest spike in BTC 30 day review supply over the last eight years which means traders who held bitcoin for at least 30 days were moving closely into the market and also the ever moving Bitcoin on the dip in the middle summer of 2013 when Bitcoin was around eleven thousand dollars per BTC which of course was a better time to sell. And they also were dumping bitcoin at around six thousand dollars back in late 2018 when we witnessed the biggest bear market. This is when Bitcoin dropped from 6000 to below three thousand dollars let’s take a look. What long term holders did. Meaning investors who are holding bitcoin for at least one year. Long term holders appear to be unfazed. In spite of this severe market downturn there were not really moving BTC into circulation as we see on this chart that they actually did move about two hundred thousand BTC in July to one tonight seen with bitcoin was slightly about ten thousand dollars which of course it makes sense to sell some of your BTC at highs. Now let’s take a look. Why Bitcoin can make 50 to 100 x from the current price. 50 to 100 x it would put Bitcoin price between three hundred thousand and six hundred thousand dollars per BTC. It seems like quite a lot right. But let me give you my thoughts why this could be a reality in the next few years. Firstly plan B stock to flow model is still intact despite the fact that Bitcoin recently has dropped by 50 percent from top to bottom. For the past decade. This model had 95 percent accuracy. Hands are square which is a statistical measure of how close that data are fitted into regression model. And it’s pretty pretty close. Also r squared can be determined as a future price prediction model which means this model is 95 percent confident that these data points which is in our case time Syria or bitcoin price moment will follow stuck to floor model. Another cool chart that Plan B created recently is a risk adjusted returns model which basically means how much risk do you have to take to receive a desirable rate of returns. Let’s take a quick look at the bond for example. Risk adjusted return profile is pretty low. Average return is close to zero percent. As we know that interest rates currently are at 0 percent and our risk is pretty low as well. So this is not that attractive investment at least for me. Then we have thank stocks which have slightly higher risk adjusted return profile. Let’s take a look at Google stock for example the stock can drop by 60 percent down with its 12 percent annual rate of returns which is also not that attractive but of course it’s more attractive than bonds but now the SEC a look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin can drop by 75 percent from top to bottom but it can also explode by 140 percent easily. Therefore over a long period of time Bitcoin has the best risk adjusted return profile. That’s put all those charts aside and look at the potential catalyst that can take bitcoin 50 to 100 x. What is going on in the world right now is insane productivity of our economy is dropping in the faster and faster rate as of more than three point three million people claimed for unemployment just as of last week. Government bonds are expensive with no yield. Stock market is still expensive. Well not super expensive but it’s definitely not cheap inflation rate is about to skyrocket as Federal Reserve expand its balance sheet last week. Balance sheet that was above the 4 trillion dollars and now it’s over five point two trillion dollars. It just a matter of time where we will see asset in double digits on the Fed’s balance sheet. The only take is left is commodities such as crude oil precious metals and crypto currencies as a serial entrepreneur and crypto curious investor Christopher or rather recently stated bitcoin will be safe haven in a time of hyperinflation. And I do believe this is true. Q infinity is rating placed by further other reserve but because supply won’t be changed. In fact between Kevin Cash awards is just 45 days away which is another catalyst to be super bullish. Christopher has a lot of cool post about crypto currencies and whether an economy on his Instagram if you guys are interested I really will link to his A.G. in the description bugs below and finally I will pull the big believer that beacon can make 50 to 100 extra return on investment. Those of you who do not know what all you probably worth sleeping under the rock recently. All poll is a former hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs and the CEO and co-founder of field vision. He said something very interesting. If he had to choose one asset for the next 10 years what would it be. And his answer was bitcoin. Let’s take a look. You said something to the effect that if you could own one asset for the next decade. It would be Bitcoin. Yeah. And I’d love to understand the rash. Now the reasoning behind that. Two things. So let’s say that same 30 year old and you’ve got 10 years you’re now in your. The stage where you start really trying to. Create wealth or save some money for future retirement whatever it may be getting married or lesser. So if an equity market is all time high valuations have a fixed income market. Yes you can make money if you know what you’re doing but yields are low so holding for extended period time is not an option. Property markets are too expensive for anybody to afford. So what are you left with. Well credit markets well you really get access to those anyway they’re more for professionals and guess what they’re all time record valuations as well. So you’re stuck with everything that is normal. At all time record valuations. So what are you left with. You’ve got commodities. Okay. So if you’re looking at industrial commodities Well the reason what you’re doing because these things are massively cyclical and you can get killed in them. So then you’re left with precious metals and bitcoin. That potentially have. An upside that’s different. Now why is it different. Why is it important because. And I’m sure we’ll talk a bit about this is. The environment that we’re potentially going into with. A massive wave of baby boomers retiring. With record debts. And governments are going to have to. And central banks have to figure out how to stimulate economies which are slow anyway. But we’ve got an aging population that spend money. If I look at my father’s spending patterns after he retired we fell 70 percent. Well that’s big for 76 million people in the US alone. So what happens is it slows down economies. There’s too much debt for slow economies. It can become a problem central banks need to print more money to try and keep this thing going. And essentially ends in complex outcomes. And we don’t really know what those outcomes are. But usually they end up in some sort of massive loss of capital for a lot of people. Or a transfer of capital and losses. So that kind of thing. Is interesting. We also know we got really screwed up financial system. It never really recovered in 2008. We’ve still got too much debt. We’ve still know the European banks are a problem. You know Canada’s going to have problems with its banking sector because it lent too much of the property market. We’ve got problems. But on top of problems we got leverage on top of leverage. Well there’s never been more leverage before. How do you step outside of that. Right. And again there’s bitcoin and gold that is too obvious answers. Are they the future of money. Well gold is a money and it’s been a money for a very long time. So that’s kind of obvious. And yes we’ll gold do well. Do I own gold. Yes. Do I think it’s going up. Yes. Bitcoin different. Bitcoin is an entire it is a basically think of it as. An option on a future financial system. And it’s not just a financial system. Everything is going digital. And Bitcoin and the block chain and digital currencies and all of this world. Is like a parallel system that’s sucking the smartest people I’ve ever met. And they’re all going to develop stuff here because what they’re saying is that system can be bettered. And what Bitcoin is all about in that whole movement and Bitcoin is just the flagship of it. Is a trusted ownership of anything. And as some as friend of mine called it the security truth machine because everything is recorded by numerous parties. Basically you get rid of all of the issues the financial system of who owns what. And. Can people take your assets away from you and all of that kind of stuff. It also opens up the new world. So gamers and people who are younger understand that digital assets have value. Well right now digital assets are hard to transfer around. But once you start going to tokenization and crypto and digitize it the whole world is different. And that’s why if I look. Skate to where the puck is going as a Canadian would say. The puck is going to something new. And we know digital is everything. As Mark and Jason said software is eating the world and it is and digitization is eating well too. So as we get to digitization in a digital money I often ask myself because we’re in the gold business. Is gold a product that can continue to be relevant for a younger generation. And of course we hope so and there are digital versions of gold and trading platforms and you can buy it on your mobile phone so there are tools allowing younger generations that are more comfortable with that type of technology. But. Perhaps Bitcoin and the watch chain embraces it and speaks them more directly. Everyone gets confused about the technology because it’s too complicated for anybody to understand and the possible futures what you can build with this stuff is impossible for you to understand. But does anybody know. The molecular structure of God. No. People don’t. It’s irrelevant. With gold. Yes I think. There will always be a place because there always has been a place you know there’s always been young generate whatever. There’s always been new technologies but. Gold largest future probably lies. With other countries. Just because. So many countries have it intrinsically as part of their culture. So that’s not going away. And yes Indians will use digital currencies there. They’ve really got this incredible digital payment system we can pay with a fingerprint for a pint of milk. That’s already happening India still hold gold. Right. So there is there is room for both in the future. Absolutely. And that’s what we try to tell people as well. But when you say OK what is the risk reward upside. Well Bitcoin probably. 50 x 100 x well gold maybe 5 x 10x. The downside for gold is less bitcoin. Well it’s not a hundred percent anymore even it’s 50 percent. And it goes up. You know 100 fold. Well the reward is so skewed in favor of cryptocurrency. Well you did say near to it you’re only picking one so we’re not. And that was the point. Yeah. And I said you know gold guys I don’t it’s not why I like let it end there at the end it’s really for us because it was going to but what about gold and like the question was What is the one asset that’s gonna give you that return. Fair enough. Now if you think of Bitcoin at its simplest terms as a share on the future of a financial system well you’re going to have these roller coaster ride bubbles until eventually you get mass adoption and the volatility slows down. So yes it was a bubble. I do expect it to go through the previous highs in the next 18 months to 12 months but with bitcoin you could do it in a week and you have no idea. Right. But I do I do expect that to happen. OK I totally agree with it all polled that Bitcoin is the call option on the future financial system. It is also the main asset of my choice. Bitcoin go to 50 to 100 x is definitely probable. Specifically if it really hit some sort of paradigm shift let me know what you guys think about bitcoin price prediction go into 50 to 100 x. Do you think it’s realistic. Leave your thoughts in the comments section below. He looks like button the subscribe.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/raoul-pal-makes-his-bitcoin-price-prediction/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=raoul-pal-makes-his-bitcoin-price-prediction-is-more-than-you-think source https://cryptosharks1.tumblr.com/post/614046640392798208

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heatherrdavis1 · 5 years ago

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Raoul Pal Makes His Bitcoin Price Prediction | Is More Than You Think!

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source https://cryptosharks.weebly.com/blog/raoul-pal-makes-his-bitcoin-price-prediction-is-more-than-you-think

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cryptosharks1 · 5 years ago

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Raoul Pal Makes His Bitcoin Price Prediction | Is More Than You Think!

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/raoul-pal-makes-his-bitcoin-price-prediction/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=raoul-pal-makes-his-bitcoin-price-prediction-is-more-than-you-think

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scottmapess · 5 years ago

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Raoul Pal Makes His Bitcoin Price Prediction | Is More Than You Think!

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ethicsustinvest · 5 years ago

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PODCAST: Top Sustainable Companies, Water Stocks. And More…

New top company sustainable rankings: Corporate Knights’ 2020 Global 100 and CDP’s 179 ‘A’ list! More ESG and sustainable ETFs and stocks for 2020. Best water stocks in the Americas, large and small. The most highly rated funds for Canadians appear also in Corporate Knights and the Interactive Investor site for British investors. And more…

PODCAST: Top Sustainable Companies, Water Stocks. And More…

Transcript & Links, Episode 24, January 31, 2020

Hello, Ron Robins here. Welcome to podcast episode 24 for January 31, 2020, titled “Top Sustainable Companies, Water Stocks. And More…”—presented by Investing for the Soul. investingforthesoul.com is your site for vital global ethical and sustainable investing news, commentary, information, and resources.

Remember that you can find a full transcript, links to content – including stock symbols – and bonus material at this episode’s podcast page located at investingforthesoul.com/podcasts.

And, Google any terms that are unfamiliar to you.

Now to this episode.

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Top Sustainable Companies

I’m going to lead this episode with two great new top sustainable companies’ lists. The first one is Corporate Knights’ 2020 Global 100 ranking. This is an annual favourite of mine. Their top five sustainable companies are:

Orsted A/S, (ORSTED.CO) in wholesale power, Denmark.

Chr. Hansen Holding A/S, (CHR.CO) engaged in food and other chemical agents, also Denmark.

Neste Oyj, (NESTE.HE) petroleum refineries, Finland.

Cisco Systems Inc., (CSCO.Nasdaq) communications equipment, United States.

Autodesk Inc., (ADSK.Nasdaq) software, United States.

Now you can see the full list by going to the link on this episode’s webpage.

Top Sustainable Companies Ranked

The second compilation of top sustainable companies is CDP’s 179 company ‘A’ list. About this list, CDP says its “Annual A List names the world's most pioneering companies leading on environmental transparency and performance. This year, we recognize more than 170 corporates as the leaders acting to address climate risks and build our future zero-carbon economy - one that works for both people and planet.” End quote.

CDP doesn’t actually give them a ranking. They just list who they feel are the companies that meet their criteria. For a link to the full list go to this episode’s webpage at investingforthesoul.com/podcasts.

Incidentally, these top sustainable companies' lists only provide rankings according to various sustainability criteria. They don’t rate the companies as to whether their stocks are worth buying!

To do that, you can obviously go to the research section of your broker’s site, ask an advisor, or also check out financial analysts’ opinions on many free online sites. The best ones I’ve found are YahooFinance, Reuters, MarketBeat, Nasdaq Analyst Stock Recommendations, and TipRanks.

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7 Socially Responsible ETFs to Buy in 2020

My next piece is by Todd Shriber, on the InvestorPlace site, titled 7 Socially Responsible ETFs to Buy in 2020. I’m going to say what his picks are and follow with a quote by him on each company.

“1) VanEck Vectors Green Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: GRNB). Comprised of U.S. dollar-denominated green bonds that are issued to finance environmentally friendly projects, and includes bonds issued by supranational, government, and corporate issuers globally.

2) Nuveen ESG Large-Cap Growth ETF (BATS: NULG). This socially responsible ETF dispels the notion that virtuous investing can be a drag on returns. Over the past year, the Nuveen ESG Large-Cap Growth ETF has outpaced the S&P 500 Growth Index by nearly 1,000 basis points.

3) Xtrackers S&P 500 ESG ETF (NYSEARCA: SNPE). The rookie ETF is notable for at least two reasons, albeit superficial. First, it is the first ETF to track the S&P 500 ESG Index. Second, it has amassed $110 million in assets since inception, a very impressive start. At just 0.11% per year, the Xtrackers S&P 500 ESG ETF is one of the most cost-effective funds in the socially responsible category.”

Now, my comment. However, be aware that this ETF is rather unbalanced in that it’s heavily weighted with tech stocks. For many investors that’s fine – but not for all nor for all market conditions. Now, back to quoting Mr. Shriber.

“4) Global X Conscious Companies ETF (NASDAQ: KRMA). It follows the Concinnity Conscious Companies Index, and that Global X says it offers exposure to companies achieving positive outcomes for 5 key stakeholders: Customers, Suppliers, Stock & Debt Holders, Local Communities, and notably, Employees.

5) Inspire Corporate Bond Impact ETF (NYSEARCA: IBD). Inspire offers a broad suite of faith-based ETFs, with [this bond fund] being the first corporate ETF dedicated to Christian values. And according to the issuer it’s donating a portion of fees to support Christian ministry projects such as clean water wells, refugee relief efforts, Bible distribution and other worthy causes.

6) Nuveen ESG High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: NUHY). Applying virtuous filters to high-yield bonds can help investors reduce and avoid trouble spots… [it’s also] the first socially responsible ETF in the high-yield category.

7) VanEck Vectors Low Carbon Energy ETF (NYSEARCA: SMOG). With its memorable ticker and significant Tesla exposure, [this fund] is a broad-based play on the soaring alternative energy industry.” End quotes.

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Making the Low Carbon Call With ETFs

Now, if you’re looking specifically for more low carbon investments, Tom Lydon offers more picks with his article Making the Low Carbon Call With ETFs at ETF Trends. He recommends iShares MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target ETF (NYSEArca: CRBN) and SPDR MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target ETF (NYSEArca: LOWC).

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More Top Sustainable Companies

Now we turn our attention from ESG ETFs to individual ESG stocks. The article is titled, 5 ESG Stocks to Buy as Climate Risk Takes Center Stage by Zacks Equity Research appearing on YahooFinance.

Here are the five stocks by Zacks. Quoting directly from the article:

“1) Applied Materials, Inc. Symbol AMAT provides manufacturing equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor, display and related industries. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 24%.

2) Keysight Technologies, Inc. Symbol KEYS provides electronic design and test solutions to commercial communications, networking, aerospace, defense and government, automotive, energy, semiconductor, electronic, and education industries. This Zacks Rank #1 company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is nearly 10%.

3) NVIDIA Corporation. Symbol NVDA operates as a visual computing company, that offers processors, which include GeForce for PC gaming, GeForce NOW for cloud-based game-streaming service and much more. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the fiscal fourth quarter is more than 100%.

4) The Procter & Gamble Company. Symbol PG provides a range of beauty, grooming, health care, fabric and home care, and baby, feminine and family care products. The company is constantly working toward restricting microfiber release. Every load of washing releases millions of microfibres that are flushed down the drain, and gradually ends up in beaches and oceans where they remain for years and disturb sea creatures’ food chain. Procter & Gamble has an expected earnings growth rate of 9.3% for the current year.

And 5) General Mills, Inc. Symbol GIS manufactures and markets branded consumer foods. Among the many sustainability initiatives of the company, its Cheerios brand uses regenerative agriculture and organic farming to source ingredients for products including the legacy cereal brand. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 5.3%.” End quotes.

Zacks is proving to be a good source of recommendations!

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Water Stocks in the Americas

Getting increasing attention among ethical and sustainable investors are water stocks. So it’s timely that Debra Fiakas wrote a piece titled Water Stocks in the Americas. There she reviews what she believes to be the best water stocks operating in the Americas.

Ms. Fiakas writes about Consolidated Water (CWCO: Nasdaq), American Water Works (AWK: NYSE), and Global Water Resources (GWRS: Nasdaq).

However, she includes a chart with four more companies. Best to go to her article to read her insights into this industry and its key players. The link, again, is on this episode’s page at investingforthesoul.com/podcasts.

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Best Canadian Funds

Now for my Canadian listeners, my great colleague, Toby Heaps at Corporate Knights, has just published The ultimate guide to responsible investing. Mr. Heaps says that I quote,” We ranked over 700 mutual funds and ETFs through a sustainability lens. Here are the top scorers.” End quote.

Also, a regular on this podcast, Tim Nash, another insightful analyst, has published The 2019 eco-fund ranking of his top Canadian funds. His article is also on the Corporate Knights site.

Again, for links to these articles go to this episode’s podcast page.

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Best UK Funds

For UK ethical and sustainable investors there’s the Interactive Investor site!. It’s a terrific site for you which, they say, quote, “We have identified more than 140 ethical investment options available on our platform.” End quote.

Not only do they have all that information and data, but the site takes you through step-by-step to locate the investment option that best matches your personal values!

Again, the link to the key page on their site is also on this episode’s podcast page.

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Ending Comments

Well, these are my top news stories and tips for ethical and sustainable investors over the past two weeks.

And to get all the links, stock symbols and more, or to read the transcript of this podcast and with additional information too, please go to investingforthesoul.com/podcasts and scroll down to this episode.

Also, be sure to click the like and subscribe buttons in iTunes/Apple Podcasts or wherever you download or listen to this podcast.

And, please click the share buttons to share this podcast with your friends and family. That way you can help promote not only this podcast but ethical and sustainable investing globally. So, let’s help create a better world with our investments!

Contact me if you have any questions.

Thank you for listening.

Talk to you again on February 14. Bye for now.

Click here to download the episode

#water #burger #Unilever #Nestlé #investing #ethical #ESG #sustainable #Morningstar #investors #bonds #stock #ETF #fund #vegan #vegetarian

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cryptswahili · 6 years ago

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Bitcoin (BTC) To $50,000 – Hayes, Bernstein And Tampax Validation

Arthur Hayes says bitcoin will go to $50,000.

That’s actually a fairly conservative target, as Hayes himself suggests, if he takes to the logical conclusion the arguments he employs to justify his bullish pronouncement.

At the root of BitMEX chief executive Hayes’s thinking is a much-noted investment super theme, found to be in use by many a mutual fund manager: demographics

For instance, from China to India, where the middle class is on the rise, a common investment theme – the growing middle class in emerging markets – sees savvy investors focus on companies producing those products and services that a growing middle class could be expected to make increasing use of, from eating more red meat to spending more on education or using brokerage services, to name just three.

When it comes to the future of crypto, the adoption story is similarly rooted in a demographic imperative, and Hayes is by no means the first to take notice. The millennials are coming!

Incidentally, China and India are the places where Hayes expects crypto digital money to take hold first.

Not enough of the right sort of money – Gresham’s Law, MMT and Bitcoin (BTC)

In an interview with Venture Coinist Hayes lays out the now familiar assumptions of many in the crypto world, which it might be said is basically a reworking of the Gresham’s Law maxim that bad money drives out good.

There are lots of issues that arise from Gresham’s law’s application to crypto vis a vis fiat money, chief among them being that the money Gresham had in mind was the commodity form, where the one with the lower metallic value but same nominal face value of another, would drive the latter out of circulation and into hoardes.

Of course, fiat isn’t commodity money and some would say crypto isn’t either, so the theory should break down. But, for crypto believers it does not.

In such a view, the circulating paper money issued at the whim (fiat) of governments has no intrinsic value. In truth though it does if we think more imaginatively. Ultimately paper money (and coins containing less metallic value than their face value) is backed by the tax base and assets (land, state-owned industries and services) of the nation state that issues it.

So what happens when the government starts issuing money willy-nilly, out of all proportion to the commerce it is required to set in motion and the ability of its tax base to sustain?

A debate is raging in economics (and politics) about so-called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) which has is that a government with a monopoly over its currency – which in the US case means a monopoly over the world’s reserve currency – does not need to overly worry about money issuance, except to make sure there’s enough of it for the economy’s needs and not too much (reduced by fiscal measures such as increasing taxes) that it stunts growth and creates unemployment.

The implications of this theory for crypto haven’t been fully explored and its post-Keynesian roots seem to borrow from those who see monetary policy as the crucial economic lever. But MMT or not, the perceived weaknesses or otherwise of the financial system is crypto’s l’overture – for crypto people there is not enough money of the right type.

It’s obviously where bitcoin comes in. But before it does, the breakdown of the existing money system begins or, more correctly, continues and deepens.

Central bank policy of inflating the money supply to protect and arguably inflate the value of assets continues apace, despite fears last year of a sharp turn in policy.

This is most clearly seen in the policy U-turn of the US Federal Reserve. Weaning off the morphine had begun but as weak global growth pressed in on policymakers’ room for manoeuvre in the US and elsewhere, the tap of cheap money was left running.

This is what Hayes derides as the “silliness” of central bank policy.

He believes it will keep the equities party going a little longer, which he sees as evident in tech companies such as Lyft and Uber grabbing their last chance to go public and the VCs of getting their fat exits. That will stall the price appreciation of bitcoin but not for long he claims.

Returning to Gresham’s law, if the good money is withdrawn from circulation what does that mean for bitcoin as digital cash?

Well it implies it is set to increasingly become a store of value that is not used very much in the realm of circulation. That’s not necessarily a bad thing as it leaves intact its putative role as the digital gold of the 21st century.

And for those that doubt that, it is the proof-of-work consensus that makes bitcoin akin to a commodity form of money, with its value derived from the computing power devoted to is network.

In this scenario, a crypto(s) other than bitcoin can still circulate as an everyday means of payment, state-issued and private.

Millennials are at the heart of the digital money investment theme

This bring us to the second part of Hayes’s musings that’s worthy of dwelling on: demographics, which, for our purposes, can be boiled down to its constituent parts as a mixture of behavioural and thematic investing.

Hayes hitches bitcoin’s prospects to the future, the millennials – those reaching adulthood at the beginning of the the 21st century.

Certainly, the baby-boomers who drove the post-war economic boom still find it difficult to get their head round money made from code, but for the millennials used to music and films that ultimately are stored and downloaded as code, nothing could be more obvious.

Besides, as Hayes points out, the baby boomers are running down their assets, or handing them down, while the millennials are just starting to build there’s up.

Here’s Hayes take on the digital natives:

“Now that we’ve come to this time period where the baby booming generation and the older Gen Xers are entering the years when they are disposing of assets, their tastes and preferences are less relevant than the younger generation, Millennials, who are entering their prime asset earning years. And so what do we know about Millennials?”

Hayes tell us what we know: “Some of them, on the younger end of the spectrum, are digital natives, mobile first. They’ve had a screen in their hand since they were a young child. They’re very comfortable using a service which has very little human interaction.”

And it might be added at this juncture that millennials are also presumably happy (or ignorant of) with the enormous computing power that goes into making artificial intelligence possible, and will continue to do so at an exponential rate.

Hayes continues: “So, if you take this sort of change in how we deal with services, and we bring it to the financial services ecosystem, you can see that analogue ways of dealing with money and trading are not going to be successful in the next 10 to 20 years. It’s going to be mobile-first platforms. It’s going to be platforms that deal only on the internet.”

And with cash being squeezed out of the system or otherwise falling into abeyance, with digital payments taking its place, cryptographically secured digital cash comes into play.

Hayes again: “And that’s where I see the value proposition of Bitcoin finally clicking in everyone’s head, when they realize, ‘Oh shit. I used to be able to take out a $10 bill and go buy a dime bag of weed. But I can’t do that anymore. There’s no more cash. I have to use this app’…”

By the way, we return to marijuana a little later, but so as not to be distracted let’s take note here that Hayes is outlining what may probably turn out to be one of the greatest investment opportunities of the millennium.

Follow Bernstein – Make Bitcoin (BTC) part of your survival plan

Which brings us to investment legend Peter L Bernstein, the author of the seminal work on finance and risk Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street.

The book, published in 1991, is currently the subject of a series by John Authers, formerly of the Financial Times and now with Bloomberg and tells the story of how the ideas of the academe infiltrated and came to dominate on Wall Street.

Bernstein explains how the advent of tax-free pension investments began to transform the investment landscape in the US in the 50s and 60s and how by the early 70s risk management was rising up the agenda. These changes meant new techniques and strategies for managing wealth came to the fore, from the Black Scholes Model to efficient market hypothesis, the latter of which Bernstein was a key populariser and refiner.

For Bernstein the key was not to lose money, to stay safe, mitigate risk. Despite the advances Bernstein outlines, off-the-charts risk-taking has in fact been fuelled by the policies of central bankers spurred on, perversely, by worries about the risks facing the financial system.

Crypto critics such as economist Nouriel Roubini will be quick to jump in here to remind the reader that bitcoin is indicative of the extreme extent to which that risk-taking has gone, but this won’t concern us here, as this article can be read as a rebuttal of Dr Doom’s underlying thesis concerning bitcoin’s supposed irrelevance.

In an interview conducted before Lehman Brothers disappeared from the face of the Earth in September 2008 at the height of the financial crisis, Bernstein commented: “Understanding that we do not know the future is such a simple statement, but it’s so important… survival is the only road to riches”.

He went on: “You should try to maximise return only if losses would threaten your survival and if you have a compelling future need for the extra gains you might earn.”

That sounds like an argument for keeping well away from bitcoin but bear with me because what it does, by inference, reveal underneath the portfolio management advice the fragility of the current financial system.

In a second interview, also before the collapse of Lehman Brothers but after having seen enough to be able to pass judgement on a future that had not fully come into view, Bernstein’s observations are more explicit in regard to the general health of the system.

“It took a very long time to get the memory of the Depression out of business decisions. I think this is going to be the same. The Fed, too, is going to be less decisive and is going to feel that what it should do is less clear.

“One of the things that gave people a sense that they could afford to take risks was the sense that the central bankers more or less know what they are doing. But I don’t think we are going to feel that way going forward…”

You betcha!

The world into which bitcoin was born – from Gillette and Tampax to crypto

We quote Bernstein at length because he puts into a nutshell where the economy is at today with stunning prescience. There will be no more V-shaped recovery. L-shaped is more likely or a flat U, says Bernstein.

This is the world into which bitcoin was borne. Indeed, it is why it was born. It is not just an economic reaction but a profound social one.

Paradoxically however, the world in which risks are successfully, for now, mitigated by central bankers may be coming to an end if a global recession appears on the horizon in a year or so. Then we might find those masters of the universe at the Fed and elsewhere have empty medicine bags and nothing to treat the patient.

Authers returns to Capital Ideas for some advice on what a worried investor should do.

There was a time, in the early 1960s, when two brands were bringing in cash but were nevertheless out-of-favour with investors. They were Gillette and Tampax, companies long since consumed by the Proctor & Gamble.

If you had been a contrarian investor who eschewed following the crowd, you would have done well in the 1960s by investing in those two companies.

That’s what Bernstein-Macaulay did for its clients when Peter Bernstein was working for the family firm in 1961.

These undervalued companies were shunned for two reasons. One, they didn’t pay a dividend and two, being consumer staples they were just not very sexy. In the case of Tampax the stock was just downright embarrassing to talk about because of the ridiculous taboo that was/is menstruation.

Investment managers didn’t want to have a conversation with clients about tampons. And razors, although not the arena of taboos, was not exactly sexy either, added to which no one in 1961 thought buying the disposal variant would catch on in the way that it did.

Bernstein explained his demographic theme investing strategy thus: “We called it ‘investing in the puberty boom’. We bought heavy positions in Gillette and Tampax (then a highly controversial stock to own, and awkward even to suggest to a client of either sex).”

Incidentally, as Authers reminds us, things have improved in terms of talking about menstruation (there are ads that actually mention the subject at hand) but not as much as we might like to think (it’s the patriarchy).

However, the important point was that the prevalence of such attitudes and the coincident rise of the baby boomers meant that Tampax (and Gillette, because the baby boomers took to disposable razors in their millions) was undervalued.

“If you can find something that makes people today as squeamish as Tampax apparently did in 1961 (I hate to suggest it, but maybe marijuana?) that could be a good idea,” Authers advises.

Ok, so crypto doesn’t make the mainstream squeamish and for Authers probably has other features that keep if off his buy list. But actually, its mere mention is likely to be heart attack-inducing, as opposed to merely bring on nausea, because of its supposed valuelessness and proven ability to attract speculators and charlatans.

Notwithstanding any of that though, if bitcoin is in some way part of the answer as far digital money goes – although perhaps not most of the 2,000 other crypto, then we should definitely place it among Authers’s bracketed undervalued plays alongside marijuana.

Having said that, bitcoin’s economic and social impact may be much greater than that of the weed whose family name Authers is somewhat shame-faced to mention.

If we are not at the bottom of the crypto bear market it looks like we are pretty near. That could make today a good time to start investing in bitcoin.

But timing the market is not a great look as it is extremely difficult to do successfully.

A far better approach, one with which Bernstein would no doubt have agreed (he died on 2009), is to do the bottom-up research to find undervalued stocks, or an instrument in another asset class and then drip-feed into the market. But to be fair he would probably have put crypto in the way too risky bag although may not have been quite as quick to dismiss it out of hand.

As for BitMEX’s Hayes, he says bitcoin at $10,000 is easily achievable before year’s end, and sees it even higher over the next few years.

“In terms of a price target, I don’t know, say $50,000 in the next two to five years. But it could go materially higher if the world plays out the way I think it’s going to play out.”

You can watch the full interview with Hayes here:

youtube

The post Bitcoin (BTC) To $50,000 – Hayes, Bernstein And Tampax Validation appeared first on Ethereum World News.

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