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skiyoosmi · 4 years ago

Text

if fate permits

chapter twenty

a taste of his own medicine

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“Hey… uhm… I’m sorry. I’m not sure where to start because I’ve been the worst friend to ya for the past weeks. But I want to start with an apology, I guess… yer probably tired of hearing it, right? … it’s something I’ll never gonna be proud of, my pettiness, I mean… but yeah… I’m sorry, YN. I hope ya believe me when I say yer impo–”

Beep! You sighed, ending yet another voicemail from Atsumu. It’s been almost a week since you and your brother moved out of the apartment and ever since the day after that, your soulmate has yet to cease dropping more than three voicemails every single day.

It wasn’t that you haven’t caught sight of him at school; in fact, you see him everywhere. It’s just so happens that you couldn’t help but avoid him like a plaque. You think he knows it though and you’re actually glad that he’s trying to respect your space (except for the endless ringing of your phone which only gets sent straight to voicemail every time, much like today). Which is why right now, you only stared at his contact, contemplating whether you will entertain his ‘apology.’ He sounds like he regrets it, after all and the fact that you only have less than 10 days before your flight wasn’t helping the situation.

“You know, if you keep having a soft heart like that, I’m betting a hundred bucks you won’t get too far once you become a famous writer. A lot of people will take advantage of you, you know. And don’t even get me started with those haters that disguise themselves as critiques,” Speaking of the devil, Kiyoomi suddenly spoke up, his figure leaning against the doorway of your room, much like the pose your father had when you were leaving your previous apartment.

Hundred bucks, you begin to think, where the hell would your jobless ass get a hundred bucks? You won’t tell him that verbally, of course; you value your life too much to even risk being strangled by your brother’s own hands.

“What do you mean soft heart? Where’d you even get the idea that I’m going to talk to him, doofus!? No way, he needs to learn his lesson,” You huffed, turning to him with an eyebrow raised, as if challenging him. He scoffed, entering your room, and sitting on your bed. You were kind of surprised he did given that your room was still messy as hell; but once again, you opted to keeping your mouth shut.

“It’s written all over your face, dear sister. Plus, you’ve said that a million times already I’m actually tired of hearing it now. After all these years, you think I don’t memorize every habit you have?” He replied, hands taking some of the clothes that were still stored in a brown carton and beginning to fold them neatly before standing up and putting it into your closet. He really does take after your father, from appearances to characteristics, “Your eyes, they speak to me the loudest, telling me every bit of your feelings. In fact, I’m kind of puzzled Atsumu never found out through them. But then again, it just supports the truth that he’s as dumb as he could get.”

This boy doesn’t really miss a chance to voice out his disfavor for your soulmate, huh? You wonder what is it that made him dislike… no, wait dislike was an underestimation… rather, loath Atsumu to the core. Bad first impression? No, your brother was not that petty. Did they have a fight you never knew about? If Atsumu and him ever fought, you were sure as hell you’d be the first one to know, seeing as your best friend practically whines and complains at you at every single thing in his life… so why?

“He hurt you and not just once. It’s not supposed to be my business but technically speaking, you are my sister before you were his soulmate and that’s all I needed to dislike him,” said Kiyoomi, continuing to fold your clothes as if what he said was practically nothing. Was he a mind-reader? You don’t know but perhaps, you could try to convince him to start up a fortune-telling business with you and earn millions.

“… You’re so creepy, ‘Yoomi,” You spoke up after a few moments of silence while he sneered, obviously not pleased with your comical reply, “Forget it! God, it’s so hard to have a serious talk with you.”

You only pursed your lips before bursting out into laughter, making him glare at you before his eyes softened. He hasn’t heard that pure laughter in a long time, after all. For some odd reason, he is proud that it was him that made you happy again like that, even for just a short while. After watching you work on something he doesn’t really know what, probably for the play, (it’s a relief you still have a smile on your face while you were on it though), he stands up, stopping by the doorway again when he heard you speak, “Thanks for being there, ‘Yoomi. Can’t imagine my life without my best brother.”

Kiyoomi knows he’s far from being the best brother in the world; he wasn’t expressive, sweet nor overprotective… but hearing those words from you means he’s at least good and somehow, he’s fine with that. He remains quiet before saying, “You know, your friend Hajime, I think he’s nice.”

He doesn’t say anything more, but he knows that his words reached you; he didn’t miss the way you blushed, after all. He takes note of making you flustered more often.

Osamu grumbles under his breath in annoyance, clenching then unclenching his hands as he watched Yui cling onto his brother’s arm like there was no tomorrow. Doesn’t this girl have any decency left in her blood? They were in the public cafeteria of the university, good heavens! And they haven’t even officially became soulmates AND a couple.

The last thing he wanted on his agenda today was to become a third wheel, much less to his brother; and the fact that it’s not even with you, the true soulmate, his favorite Sakusa (he won’t let Kiyoomi know that though), and best drinking buddy, makes it more unbearable for the gray-haired lad. He could only scowl so hard at his twin, who on the other hand, remained unmoved. At least that’s what Osamu sees but unbeknownst to him, Atsumu just wishes he could go and find you as soon as possible.

He has had enough of you averting your gaze each time you catch each other’s eyes at the theater room. According to his brother, your flight is in ten days which means he only had a few more days to make your friendship right; to make it up to you and prove that you are, indeed, an important figure in his life (cue Osamu’s mocking last night when they talked: “HAH!? You sure do have a peculiar way of showing her that she’s important. You’re making me want to laugh and choke you at the same time.”)

“Oh! Iwaizumi-kun, Tooru and… Sakusa YN?” Yui trails off, making the blonde perk up at the sound of your name, turning his body quickly only to find you already looking back at them with… disappointed eyes? As quickly as it came, it disappeared and soon, you were smiling and waving at Osamu, completely ignoring your “best” friend. Atsumu can only stare at you in disbelief; never, not even once, had you disregarded his existence like that before. Even when you had small arguments, you made sure to acknowledge him with a simple nod.

In addition to your indifference, Hajime only furrowed his eyebrows in confusion at Yui’s greeting, as if he doesn’t know Yui at all, not even as an acquaintance. Hence, the three of you only proceeded to the table Makki, Mattsun and your brother saved for you.

“Eh? Iwaizumi… ignored me?” Yui frowned, obviously not used to being disregarded by the boy who used to give her a greeting every time they come across each other. As far as she could remember, they ended their bond in good terms, without anyone having to feel angry at the other so why is it that he acted that way? Did he hold a grudge after all?

Meanwhile, Atsumu gazed into nothing, your sad eyes flashing into his mind and staying there. Have you given up on him already? Did his nightmare that day actually came true? His trail of thoughts was cut off with Osamu’s voice speaking with amusement plastered on his face, “ooh, a taste of his own medicine, huh YN?”

He smirks, finding his brother’s suffering oddly satisfying. He too, like Kiyoomi, has his limits as to Atsumu’s undesired talent of hurting you (he knows the blonde was also suffering but you know, it just really gets on his nerves how blind his twin could get). So right after saying that, he stands up, picking up his tray that holds his food and beginning to walk where your table was.

“Samu! Where are you going?” The said lad looks back at his blonde twin weirdly before shrugging, “YN and Kiyoomi’s table, where else? You can’t expect me to stay on the table with you two, it’s weird.”

“So… you really can’t remember anything about your soulmate? Like who it is or something?” Oikawa asked, staring at Hajime’s hands, as if he’d be able to see anything on his pinky. Unfortunately for him, the ex-captain was not given the ability to be a Moira so he wouldn’t be able to see any changes no matter how long or hard he looks. The spiky-haired lad merely groans, feeling a headache coming due to his dear friend’s pestering, “Yes. I told you that already. I just woke up, saw my thread black and now, I can’t remember anything about who it is.”

“But you can remember us? It’s just the soulmate stuff you forgot?”

“Well, I’m talking to you right now, am I not, you dumbass?” Hajime snarled; an inch close to punching his best friend in the face. Beside him, you look down, feeling the sadness and heartbreak for him because even those feelings were lost the moment he woke up. If you let go of Atsumu, will this also happen to you? You can only give a pathetic laugh at your silly question; of course, it will. You weren’t some kind of special Moira that will be exempted from that ‘curse.’ But you wonder, how would he react? Would he be sad? Or would he just forget about you too and just throw everything you had away? It seems so easy for him to do that, after all.

Now that you witness what’s gonna happen upon cutting the thread, a part of you somehow wishes you should’ve just told him when it was still early, when you were still young and problem-free. Maybe he would’ve given you a promise like those in the movies wherein he says he would marry you once you get older. Maybe he would’ve been able to love you if you could’ve just given him a chance to do so. But it’s your fault, isn’t it? Because you were a coward; you were so greedy for true love that you can no longer have it, you think to yourself.

In the midst of your rather negative thoughts, a warm hand pulls you away from mentally beating up yourself further. Looking up, you find Hajime looking at you with soft eyes, as if assuring your heart that: “You’ll be fine. I’m here. I’ll keep you safe.”

Maybe… just maybe, the universe has given you another chance for true love.

marga's notes. I HAVE FOUND A NEW HUSBAND AND HIS NAME'S BENIMARU SHINMON

taglist is closed

#haikyuu smau #haikyuu x reader #atsumu smau #iwaizumi smau #atsumu x reader #iwaizumi x reader #haikyuu headcanons #atsumu headcanons #iwaizumi headcanons

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theprodigypenguin · 4 years ago

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I’m forever miffed about Remus & Harry relationship. Remus, who runs around werewolves on his own, living underground on his own, putting himself at risk for weeks and even months at time always just him alone vs goddamn packs at tens of others and Harry dared say Snape is the bravest man he knew I mean the mf slander! Snape had a cushy life! He outed Remus! Causing him to be jobless for some teenage feud? Fuck I’m so angry.

Babe you read my mind Snape can go fuck a grape compared to my man Remus.

Although strictly because I'm an author, I need to remind that technically Harry said Snape was ONE of the bravest men he ever knew.

I still don't think Snape shoulda been part of that list, but we're not gonna get into an anti Snape conversation right now.

Remus > Snape is basically what I'm saying and you're right, also fuck Harry on some level because he's just a fuck sometimes.

And as a random addendum, even in the books Remus doesn't have much of a relationship with Harry. He was present for a lot of his third year, but it was like Remus decided to step back after Sirius came home. As if Remus decided "Oh, he's got his godfather now, he doesn't really need me around now. Well that's fine, I did my best."

In other words this stupid wonderful son of a bitch is so self deprecating he believed that since Harry had Sirius, he himself was not needed. Harry had so many people around him and Remus was just "that's okay, I can look after him from a distance, i don't need to be close to him, it's probably better this way anyway."

FUCK I MADE MYSELF SAD!

#nico answers anons #nico answers asks #remus lupin #harry potter #severus snape #anti snape #sort of

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ayakashiramblings · 5 years ago

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The Dawn and Twilight with a Vampire AND Assassin MC

I’m going to clear up somethings that had plagued me while writing this because it really made them both hard to do unless addressed.

General

The only people technically worthy of being assassinated would be Toichiro and Koga, the only nobles/super-rich men in the faction.

The rest are otherwise just leading a supremely normal job/jobless existence

(Squints at Kuya, Yura and Oji).

Even if we could say that they could be targeted for their Ayakashi nature, it wouldn’t make sense for it to be super sneaky when the whole government is against their very beings but doesn’t want to alert the citizens.

Too many of them disappearing all at once would just set the whole Capital in a state of unrest.

I’m going to stick to Asian vampires but admittedly, some Western traces are going to be found.

Out of all of them, Oji is going to be the most OCC I believe.

I’m going to be honest and say that I have been getting kind of tired of doing these headcanons especially after receiving a few... messages that were a bit insulting. So that’s why I closed the ask box. That said, Nonnie who sent this request, if this is unsatisfactory, do feel free to PM me. I’m really sorry if I sound irritable, I’m just really upset at some of the things in my inbox.

Ginnojo

Honestly, this could be the start of something new.

A relationship fraught with sexual tension.

Yes, even for this blushing Dragon.

No, seriously, imagine this.

During the events of Book 1, and amidst all the chaos of being an Onmyoji…

On top of your other supernatural powers AND… unique job, you find yourself in the alleys, securing a target of yours.

His scrutinizing gaze settled on your lips, which were pulled up with a teasing smirk.

Finally, a challenge.

He stood like stone, barely eroding even when you had started to show off your floating powers. You had to give it to him, he really was a warrior defending the Capital.

And apparently, your best opponent. You may have easily snatched away his daggers, but he had easily grabbed your wrist and targeted the vein that should have been pumping with blood if you were alive.

So why did you suddenly crumple to the ground?

The number of smokescreens between you two was seriously enough to choke everyone in the room.

You did try to make sure though it did not affect any of the factions, and surprisingly, it had worked.

Seemed that there was an unspoken agreement that you were both looking out for the Capital, except his was more of a freestyle form while yours was conscripted.

He could respect that.

What was really hard was completely forgetting your beliefs and loyalties.

Suddenly gravitates towards the Mythology section of his bookshop.

And then... you talk.

It’s a long talk. It may or may not have been about life, someone’s life you had to take, and everything about order.

You guys end up working together to bring down a lot of opponents or threats and wow, what a tag team you both are.

Aoi

Finally, a gun-wielding AND sharp-tongued senpai!

… I’m joking, please don’t teach him any more violent/sassy stuff.

And yes, technically, you’re not sharp-tongued, that’s more of your fangs just gleaming.

You, despite having been in this service and becoming a literal creature of the night, had made the most rookie mistake ever.

Leaving. Your. Papers.

With all of your bloody targets.

Pun intended because the few red splotches scattered across the parchment certainly wasn’t just a teacher’s pen.

The thing is, Aoi at first hadn’t bothered looking at the content when he had first spotted them.

He was only focused on just returning your ‘homework’ for Finishing School.

Even though he usually refused to look into anyone, his Seer powers couldn’t exactly tune out the presence of a heart.

Except, apparently, you did not have one.

Honestly, you were surprised he never called you out for it. He could have easily unravelled the whole situation.

"Trust me, I know you don’t have one. But you still feel. How can I hate someone who’s always considering her actions every time?”

Now, how to respond to a man so understanding as him?

Why by showing that you were JUST as tsundere as him.

Koga Kitamikado

He feels that he has no right to judge you for killing because at least you have determined if your intended victim was worth spilling blood over.

He didn’t with Masanobu’s brother.

Honestly, you were always just the slightest bit worried that one day he would pay you to kill him should he ever submit to carnage.

You and Kuya both want to shake this man so hard.

But for now, you stay.

Sometimes, you even make sure the area is vacated if it looks like the illness is acting up again.

For that, he is grateful and makes sure that you are properly covered as well.

And I don’t mean just hiding your tracks from the public eye.

This man will get you equipped to deal with ANYTHING.

Heck, even if you had turned human all of a sudden, you could fight an army in the sun thanks to the umbrellas, sunscreens and whatnot.

It helps that thanks to your line of work, you HAVE to go to parties so while he finally has a companion to secretly diss the questionable crowd, you can gather intel on your next target and see if they were worth it, with inside info from him as well.

You both spend as much time together as you can, even if it’s just sitting in his office doing different things.

Ironically, he never says what you are aloud through it all.

Because the only thing that mattered was who was living at that moment.

Kuya

The boy is smart. He can tell something…

That you were a bit too familiar with flying.

At first, he had chalked it up to you being nervous about heights but with how you waved your wand around and almost seemed to be stabbing enemies mid-air, he knew something was… up.

And he just confronts you the most easily out of everyone here.

“So, are you a vampire who kills for literally and figuratively a living?”

A bit too morbidly fascinated with it. He’s already obsessed with wraiths, he needs to know how someone like you could battle it all.

And now he knew.

Don’t expect him to read up. He WILL ask questions that are borderline uncomfortable and really make you question the nature of what you were doing and if there were really no alternatives.

Always touching your dagger when you’re not looking and then looks like a startled crow when you catch him… before just outrightly asking to touch your fangs.

Sweet goodness, Kuya, why?

Essentially, imagine him with Koga.

Because he feels that you torturing yourself to kill just to survive was really not worth it.

Yura

How he finds out is even more stupid than Aoi.

You had smiled.

Like, really smiled because how can you not smile at this pure jelly bean…

Oh shoot, your fangs had been fully retracted.

Again, one of those who feels that he is in no position to question your actions.

You even take pity on him by quickly removing all of the animals that he is forced to kill.

Somehow, not seeing their carcasses alleviates his pain.

Barely.

What really made him relieved was that they also acted as a sort of substitute to

At one point, you had wondered if there was any cure to you being a vampire.

Unfortunately, like with Koga, the most he can produce is a sort of potion to reduce your bloodlust.

It does help you lower your hit list, thank god.

Maybe one day, the two of you will actually have time to clean those bloodstained hands.

Gaku

Are you here to harm his brother?

What, you found his scent to be too saccharine?

How Bloody Dare You.

You better get diabetes.

Gaku, not the point.

He found out thanks to Yura confessing.

Sure, it had taken sheer effort to finally corner the both of you, especially since Yura knew more hiding spots in the forest than Gaku.

When he did though, the first thing he did was to raise his drums for an attack.

Not surprisingly, he was more concerned with how you would be either against Yura rather than himself.

Surprisingly though, he is the one giving you weapons much later.

And I mean much, much later. Yura needed time to work his brotherly magic, after all.

He would rather you not even be doing this at all, it reminded him too much of the path Yura was forced to take.

Only somehow worse because yours was directly related to your newfound nature.

Still, if it helped you, he would make sure the kill is at least clean-cut and efficient.

Toichiro Yuri

Good, more resources for the Kitsune clan.

Seriously, you don’t think there’s a bit of dirty work involved in ruling a bunch of Ayakashi, no?

He already knew of your kind thanks to not just his Western connections, but also because most vampires were related to ancient nobles.

You had to be bloody pathetic to have not accumulated SOME form of wealth after 100 years.

Especially since your diet was literally JUST blood.

It would be no stretch to assume that Toichiro made use of his silver tongue to inveigle his questionable business partners.

That you were about to become a part of.

And somehow even more well-hidden than the rest.

Will bug you at night on purpose just because he knows you will be up.

Asshole.

Truly though, he does value your opinion, especially if whoever he needs info on is a potential victim.

Shizuki

Well, you could have at least told him of your dietary preferences before he had brewed up that pot of milk tea.

And why you always seemed to struggle with meeting him on the midnight patrols. His schedule was literally thrown up thanks to YOUR secret one.

He somehow isn’t so thrown off at the fact you’re a vampire. It’s what you’re doing that gets him on guard.

You’re going to have to work to prove that you are NOT a threat to Toichiro.

So... good luck.

You may even have to literally swallow your pride... in the form of milk tea.

Low-key salty he is one of the few who didn’t figure it out and had to be told by Toichiro.

And yet, you still did. You even tolerated his master’s jokes with an almost inhuman level of patience.

Oh, wait...

Sometimes wonder if freezing blood would help you keep it so that you won’t have to constantly hunt.

Although you better do whatever Toichiro does ask you to do still.

Just that... he may or may not be slightly concerned with the other non-human in the manor.

Kuro

Honestly, he is disappointed.

It’s not about you being a vampire.

He’s probably thought his species was the worst and shameful enough not to reveal at all.

No, it was the fact you had to murder people.

Yes, he was glad that you had some sort of say in deciding who to kill.

The thing is, he already has one loose ex-Shinsengumi member risking everything for a few servings of justice.

He was hoping not to have a chance to lose you too.

Did try to accompany you the first few times but you were a bit too fond of the dark.

For obvious reasons.

Begins to stock up on random medicine he uses for physical training as an acrobat before wondering if they would even work on a vampiric body.

Still better than you not going to a hospital just because you would be tempted by the blood donors.

Hugs you tight before every mission that he knows he can’t take part in.

Someone’s gotta look after Nachi.

Oji

For the first time, you will hear what Aoi calls ‘The Dead Voice’.

For the longest time, you thought it was just one of his ways of covering up his affectionate slip up of calling Oji a ‘Dad’.

Now, you know. You heard right.

Strangely, he is the most aggressive. But remember, he has to consider someone.

While Aoi may technically accept you, Oji has seen him completely vulnerable after losing all faith in humanity.

He can’t imagine the state his ward would be in if you were to ever take it too far.

Not only that, the resurgence of Asian Vampires started around his era so he had to grow up with the worst lot.

Not the best memory to look back on. And he knows you can’t represent a whole species.

Doesn’t stop him from having one or three eyes peeled open.

It takes some convincing from Koga to finally Aoi himself to reassure him that you wouldn’t do anything to harm the rest.

And finally, you get back the adorkable manager(?) who is a bit too busy coming up with vampire puns, always offering a ‘bite’ for you.

Epilogue

After parting with your beloved, you flew.

“Good job, my doll. I’m proud that you told him.”

With that, you smiled at the one who had turned your blood to one that lusted after another’s. Your daggers met not as an attack, but a sworn oath.

“Yes, Professor.”

#ayakashi romance reborn #ayakashi rr #AyakashiRR #Ayakashi: Romance Reborn #ayakashi aoi #ayakashi kuro #kuro #gaku #ayakashi kuya #kuya #arr kuro #arr #voltage inc #arr oji #arr koga #arr shizuki #arr toichiro #arr ginnojo #arr yura

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httphonsool · 5 years ago

Text

all the strings are attached

word count: 5,267

time taken: 5/6 hours

author’s note; I feel like this could have been a lot better but for now this is all I got, I’m working on Jungkook’s and Tae’s fics as well so don’t worry, there’s more coming soon

synopsis; in which it turns out that you care for your best friend too much, so much so that he ends up wanting no strings attached.

⤫⤫⤫

Ah, pain. Pain was something you had felt more than often (unfortunately) throughout your entire life; when you were five you broke your arm, when you were nine you accidentally stepped on a piece of glass (you didn’t even realise, stupid child), when you were thirteen you fell and scraped your knees on hard, gravelly ground and ended up having scarred knees for the rest of your life, but nothing compared to the pain you willingly chose to put yourself through when you made the biggest mistake of your life: you decided to start sleeping with the man you found yourself falling for, ha, no, that’s a joke…you had already fallen for him.

No strings attached. That’s what you had decided, and you were willing, so willing, because how else were you supposed be as close to him as you always wanted to? This was your choice, you wanted to be able to regret it, but this was your only chance, to know how it feels to be close to him, be with him even if it was just lust driving you both; to sleep with him meant that he wanted you in some kind of way, and that meant more to you than anything else. No matter how shallow it was. It was a poorly made choice, one that was made when the two of you were drunk out of the universe and wallowing over stupid things like how someone took the last burrito during lunch break at college all those years ago or how he really, really craved attention from the girl he loved: the girl that technically caused your friends with benefits situation. You didn’t know whether you wanted to thank her because she helped start this lustful relationship between you two or whether you wanted to kick her because she was the reason he was still moaning her name while you were with him, the reason why you felt dirty while you slept with him, because though, yes, at times you believed he wanted you, but you knew you were just a replacement, an object in place of her.

♔

‘I just- I just really wanted a burrito, Jimin, it was my only love,’ you wail, sobs wracking your body, vision blurred because of the all the alcohol screwing up your system.

‘I get that, sometimes, I just want her attention, you get me? Ever since the night I…’ he trails off, and even in your drunken state you’re thankful he did because you don’t want to know what they did, ‘___? Could…could we…could you take my mind off of…you know, Eunha? I know you’re still broken up over the burrito, but maybe I could, um, help you with your burrito problems as well?’ his voice gets smaller as he continues talking but you knew you were going to say yes as soon as he said your name.

‘Really, Park? You’d do that for me?’ you ask him, crawling into his lap, taking no notice of the, er, situation, he was in, you could feel something poking your thigh, but honestly you were drunk and you couldn’t care less.

‘Yes,’ and he leans in, darkened eyes, pupils blown wide, cupping your face with one fragile hand and dragging his other hand up and under your shirt starting to trace sweet patterns into the small of your back.

One of the last things you remember from this night is the way his soft lips encase yours, this memory and another memory from later on that night, one you could never forget-

‘Yes, Eunha, just like that…’ he whimpers, moaning and groaning.

Ha, you should have known.

♔

Dumb girl, told yourself you could handle it, ha, well obviously not, not anymore, you were so stupid, but hey, at least you weren’t didn’t let him take your virginity while you were drunk. It’s been almost six months since that day you started this, did you regret it? No, because this was your only chance, remember? And now you were left with an aching heart, one that probably couldn’t be healed, but that’s okay, you were doing this for Jimin, because he wanted to be distracted from his oh-so-dear Eunha, and you just wanted a piece of him, because you knew there wouldn’t be another chance other than this.

Jimin had never been a strings attached guy anyway, because strings were too complicated, there was almost always so much mess left behind when there were strings, and he didn’t want to be caught up in chaos, no, he preferred things to be simple: black or white, he cares or he doesn’t, it’s sex or it’s more than that. He was always so simple, so carefree, and then you introduced him to Eunha. Now, Eunha was a sweet girl with an even sweeter knife to stab you in the back with, it’s safe to say you never liked her, but when you moved to Seoul, into the big city, you knew no one other than her, having known her since you were a small little child in a cot, so you had to put your faith in her, it’s also extremely safe to say you shouldn’t have trusted her at all, Eunha was the reason you lost your first job in Seoul, those details you’d rather not go into but I guess that was a reason you should be thanking Eunha; if she hadn’t lost you her job, you wouldn’t have ended up meeting Jimin that day whilst crying in the local Starbucks, drinking a good old caramel macchiato.

♔

‘You know, I could probably feel your negative energy all the way from space, why the long face?’ You look up to see a gorgeous boy; golden hair that was obviously dyed, a cute smile was rooted on his face (God, he had such plump and delicious lips), causing you to take out your earphones and pause the song playing, you should have known then you were absolutely fucked.

‘Hmm, I don’t know, I don’t know you, you could end up kidnapping me,’ you try to joke, but your usual charisma isn’t able to shine through today.

‘My name’s Jimin, see? You know me now,’ he giggles, and my God was his giggle cute.

‘I’m ___, so do you usually stalk strangers?’ you ask

‘No, no, you’re the only exception,’ he bobs his head up and down, another giggle leaving the confines of his pink lips.

‘I feel honoured,’ you’ve managed to crack a smile, what is it about him that could make you smile even through your darkest nightmare?

‘I’m glad you do, so why the long face?’ This Jimin boy is very persistent.

‘I lost my job,’ you claim, he doesn’t need to know why, or how, it’s unnecessary.

‘I can fix that,’ he says, his smile growing bigger.

‘Uh, sure,’

‘No, I’m serious, how do you feel about music? Any good with lyrics? How about makeup?’ he asks, he seems so sure he could help you, and maybe he could, after all you were great with lyrics, growing up in a small town where music was everything, you had learned to have a way with stringing lyrics together to express your emotions.

‘I guess I’m okay with lyrics…’ you trail off.

‘Hmm, well then give me your number and we can figure something out,’ he gives you a very cheesy wink, one that managed to make you choke out a laugh.

‘Wow, very smooth, Jimin, do you use that on all the girls?’ You ask, arching a neatly groomed brow.

‘No, no, again, you are the only exception,’ his head bobbles in its place, a proud and satisfied smile planted on his face.

‘Again, I feel very honour-’

‘___? There you are! I was looking for you everywhere,’

God no, please don’t let it be-

‘Eunha?’ You swivel your head around to see your childhood “friend” glaring at you, panting, hmm, maybe she did have a little bit of a soul if she ran to find you.

‘And who’s this, ___?’ her beady eyes eyeing Jimin up and down thoroughly, probably examining whether he was to be her next victim, hmm, another thing you were going to have to share with Eunha.

‘Hi, I’m Park Jimin, and you are?’ a mischievous glint in Jimin’s eyes

But looking back now, maybe he was always supposed to be hers.

♔

Why were you so hopelessly in love with him? Your mother had told you once that once you know you’re in love, there’s no painless way out, so maybe that’s why you haven’t tried, because you know it would hurt more than to be in love with him. Or maybe you were just in too deep to ever get out of it, Jimin often told you that you were one of the strongest person he knew, so why was it that around him, no matter how comfortable you were, you became a weak excuse of a woman that according to the man you love was supposed to be one of the strongest.

Most nights thoughts of Jimin keep you up, especially when you knew he was with Eunha. Often they would go out and you would have to sit there on his couch knowing that when he came back he would screw you, one hundred percent guaranteed it was only because he couldn’t screw Eunha…and you were the next best thing. You can’t comprehend why he still loves her, well, there for him there isn’t a reason to not love her, he doesn’t know about all the times she did you so dirty, doesn’t know that the reason you know work with him is because Eunha managed to make you jobless, to him she’s perfect: a beautiful angel but if she’s an angel then you’d rather end up in hell.

What was it about him that you were in love with, huh? Oh, right…it was the little things, was it not? How he’d always cuddle you to sleep because you were just comfortable and soft compared to him, how he’d always play with your hair and braid it just because he wanted to, how he’d wipe off your minimal makeup and tuck you into bed if you fell asleep on the couch after a long day, how he’d always inspire you for your lyrics; he didn’t know it then and he definitely won’t know it now but he’s always been your muse since you’ve started this job.

It aches you, your love for Jimin is always stronger than anything else, whatever it is, whatever he needs, you’ll always drop everything for Jimin, and it doesn’t matter why because you already know it’s because you’re in love with him, and he’ll never know, no, he doesn’t even need to, because he’ll probably end up with Eunha at some point, he’ll be happy, something you’ve always wanted for him, and then he’ll no longer need you, Eunha will end up stealing everything as always and you’ll be left on the sidelines broken beyond repair shattered to a million pieces once more, and after that he’ll probably want to move in with her, so that’ll mean you have to move out, but you’re prepared, in fact, you’ve already started looking at new apartments, it’s only a matter of time before you’re not needed, so you’ve prepared yourself: putting yourself in every worst-case scenario you can imagine so you can handle it when the time comes, and you know it’s likely to come soon.

When you look back at it, you can’t even imagine a life where you didn’t know Jimin, you’re so lost and caught up in pining after him that you’ve become so selfish and needy, you’re no longer grateful for the time you both spend together, there are moments when sometimes his behaviour makes you believe that maybe, just maybe, he does love you, but all of that comes crashing down on you when one of you receives a call from darling, angelic Eunha.

You often wish Eunha didn’t exist, no, you need Eunha to not exist, you don’t know whether she does it on purpose or whether she has completely no clue on how badly you’re in love with Jimin and need him, but you need her gone, not only because she’s pretty much claimed Jimin, but because she’s also dragging him along, even after three years she’s still the same as before; playing with people and hurting them in the end, and you know that this is no different: she’s just dragging it out longer than usual. What for, you ask? You have no clue.

♔

So now, as you sit on Jimin’s couch, waiting for him to come back from Eunha whilst you watch Episode 3 of Itaewon Class (Taehyung mentioned the series to you one time when Jimin brought you on tour with him because he “couldn’t stand the thought of you alone”) you can’t help but wonder if this was the day he’d ask her to be his girlfriend, hmm, or maybe Eunha would actually ask him, or maybe (the idea you preferred) Jimin would break things off with Eunha completely and move on…because he deserved so much better, not someone like you because people like you, people who relied on him too much, survived because of him because they can’t breathe without him, weren’t good enough for him either.

An hour passes, maybe two, and he’s finally back, walks into the apartment covered in lipstick stains and the smell and buzz of alcohol mixing with his usual husky cologne that he’s loved ever since you once bought it for him whilst out shopping for groceries, you would have thought he looked hot, and he does, he looks like a God, but those lipstick stains aren’t yours…and that’s what has you numb and stuck in place.

He’s never come back with lipstick stains.

‘___? Are you here?’ Jimin slurs out, it’s like a trigger was just pulled, and you’re up, pulling him into the bathroom and fetching your makeup wipes, because you know he’d rather not go to sleep all messy and dirtied up from the night before, it’s little things like these that are the reason you both get along so well.

And you’re doing fine in not breaking down at the sight of Eunha’s signature red stamp on Jimin’s neck, and on his soft lips, the neck that you’ve given countless hickies to on the nights he needs a distraction, the lips you’ve kissed countless times, the lips that have had you screaming for hours deep into the night, but then he holds your hand, stopping you from wiping the rest of the stains off.

‘Do you see what she did, ___? Does it bother you at all? How do you think Eunha would feel if she found out that every single time I come back from our fake little dates, I’m going to be sleeping with you, that I’m going to make you scream my name instead of hers?’ Oh, he’s good, he really knows how to make you feel even when he’s drunk, your little sessions usually tend to start like this, he reminds you of Eunha, tells you how naughty you are, ha, you both basically get off on the root of your pain, if it didn’t make you feel hurt after you slept together maybe you’d even laugh at yourself. Jimin cocks his head, letting go of your hand, smirking and-

‘Go on, ___, wipe the rest of them off,’ his smirk turns into a smile, and all of a sudden adorable giggles are bursting from his mouth, God, you hate his mood swings when he’s drunk. So you continue with your actions, wiping the rest of the stains off, you even get him a change of clothes and the grown man makes you change his clothes for him, but of course, there’s nothing you wouldn’t do for him, and you know you can’t trust him when he’s drunk anyway, and everything’s fine, he’s settled down in bed and you think you can trust him so you decide to go shower, oh how wrong you were.

You’re in absolute shock as you feel hands pressing you up against the shower wall.

‘You know, the first time I saw you in Starbucks I thought you were absolutely gorgeous, ___, and then Eunha decided to show up and ruin our little conversation…hmm, what a shame, am I right?’ you squirm in his grip, struggling to turn around and face him, until he decides to have mercy on you and turns you around himself, and your met with the Goddamn man himself, Park Jimin, ‘We weren’t done from earlier, ___, now tell me, does it bother you at all? Me and Eunha?’

You shake your head rapidly, you’re lying, and he’s probably guessed that, good thing that Jimin doesn’t remember shit when he’s drunk.

‘I expect an answer,___, and no lies,’ he pauses, his dominant demeanour fading for a complete second, ‘and if you’re not lying…then please lie, just for tonight, ___,’ and that triggers it, that’s it for you, you don’t care whether he means it because he’s drunk or not, you kiss him with all of the love you have for him, because ever since you’ve met him he’s captured entire soul, your world, he’s your world now, and you want him to know that, even if it’s just one night, even if he’s drunk.

And that’s when he lifts you up against the shower wall and you wrap your legs around his torso, he’s sucking on your neck, it feel so right, you’re in complete paradise, an island of bliss, and your dumbass brain decides to-

‘Jimin, the water bill,’ you mumble,

‘I don’t give a shit, just let me love you for one night,’ he whispers into your ear, and that’s how you know you’re damn well deep inside the never-ending abyss you call your love for Jimin.

Because when he says shit like that, you’re done for.

♔

The next morning, you’ve decided you need to stop this, stop this before either one of you fucks up and all of a sudden you aren’t friends any longer, you’ve also decided that this isn’t fair on him and Eunha, no matter whether it’s serious or not with them, it’ll hurt for a while, not having Jimin, that is, you’ve also solidified your decision when Eunha calls you early in the morning, you would love to say you had a pleasant chat with her but, well, you didn’t.

‘I heard a little something yesterday while I was out with Jimin,’ you don’t like the way she says his name, it’s as if she believes he’s some object that has to be claimed.

‘What did you hear?’ you ask her, you have a feeling you already know, I mean, Jimin has a tendency to spill things on accident while he’s drunk.

‘Hmm, nothing much, he just said something about you guys sleeping together, so I had to leave a little signature stamp if you know what I mean.’ That sick bitch.

‘Thank you, I left some stamps as well last night, I hope you enjoy seeing them today on your little date,’ you shouldn’t have just said that, because you know it’s wrong, that you’re almost as bad as Eunha, and you know that dear, angelic Eunha gets jealous as hell very easily, and she doesn’t like it.

‘Just stop sleeping with him, doesn’t it make you feel guilty, he doesn’t love you anyway, you’re just acting like a slut, you’re a whore, stop sleeping with men that aren’t yours,’ and it hits you all of a sudden, just like that, you’re breaking down, because even though, yes Eunha was bad, she had nothing on you, you were dirty, and for once Eunha was right. What were you doing? What were you doing sleeping with a man that was in love with someone else?

♔

‘Jimin, I think we need to talk,’ you blurt out.

‘Of course, we can talk, I always want to talk to you,’ Jimin giggles, God you’re going to miss that Goddamn giggle.

‘I can’t do it anymore,’ it’s all out in the open now, no turning back.

‘What? Do what?’

‘You, I can’t do you! I can’t do this, I can’t be with you knowing you’re in love with someone else because I feel guilty,’ and there it is, almost over and done with, all you need to do is seal the deal, split it apart. God, if only you knew.

‘Did she say something? Did Eunha say something to you? What did she say, did she- did she tell you?’ You can’t stand the broken sound of his voice, that was the voice of the man you were in love with, and also the voice of the man who isn’t in love with you.

‘It doesn’t matter, either way, I can’t continue sleeping with you,’ you’re doing the right thing, you’ve been selfish this whole time, just wanting a piece of him no matter how much it hurts you, but you never even thought of how much it could hurt others.

‘Why?’ because I’m in love with you.

‘It’s making me uncomfortable, and, I think I’ve found someone else,’ that seems to do the job, at least that’s what you think, minutes pass and you’re both just staring at each other, the tension practically visible.

‘Do I know him? Is it one of the boys? Is he- have you guys- has he fucked you? God, don’t tell me it’s Jungkook, I told him to lay off you when he told me he thought you were hot- but I mean if you’re happy, then I’m happy too…’ he’s rambling on and on, and all it does is make you realise that he does care, at least a little bit and it makes you feel all the more guiltier when you realise you’ve just lied to his face.

‘You don’t know him, Jimin, so no, he’s definitely not Jungkook, and whether we’ve fucked or not isn’t any of your concern.’

‘It is my concern,’ he claims.

‘No, your concern is Eunha, not me, it doesn’t matter either way, I’m not changing my-’

‘I guess she didn’t tell you then,’ tell you what? ‘So was he as good as me? Was he better or was he worse? Ha, of course he was worse, no one else could ever have you screaming like that all night, am I right?’ Yes, he’s right, but he doesn’t need to know that, because now is not the time to have sex and that’s exactly where this would lead to, you know it, you know him better than anyone.

‘It’s none of your business, Jimin,’ God, you want to cry, ‘and, I’m moving out,’ you don’t even have an apartment yet, guess that just means you’re going to have to start looking and hope you’ll get an apartment.

‘No, you’re not,’ he scoffs, were you serious right now? He’s hoping to change your mind about moving out.

And knowing you, he knows you don’t want to leave, after all, he knows you better than anyone else, right?

♔

Weeks pass, you’ve managed to find a comfy apartment about fifteen minutes away from Jimin’s, you didn’t want to move too far away because you still have to work with him, except it’s just not going to feel the same anymore. You haven’t moved out yet though, still packing everything that belongs to you, hanging all the shirts you’ve stolen from Jimin over the few years you were living together back in his closet, Jimin’s decided he doesn’t want to help you move out, and that’s fine, he doesn’t have to, but you could tell it still bothered him, often you’d come back from work, on days when he’d been off, to find all of your luggage and belongings back in their places, out of the boxes you’d squished them in, and you knew that couldn’t have happened on its own, you also knew that Jimin and Eunha hadn’t been hanging out anymore, things had changed drastically, Jimin would no longer cuddle you to sleep like he used to, you’re assuming it’s because you told him you found someone.

You found yourself missing his touch, his warmth, the whole damn apartment felt cold because of the situation you were in and it hurt so much, you knew this would have had to happen at some point, you know it was going to hurt this bad but you always thought it would happen when you’d moved out, you didn’t want to move out, that was clear, it was tiring and it was so much better in Jimin’s apartment where he was around to make your whole day better, but you won’t have that anymore. You love him, you really do, you love him so much it completely breaks you, you used to think you didn’t want it any other way, you really just wanted to be able to love him no matter whether he loved you back or didn’t, but now you wish Eunha never existed, that she never stabbed you in the back, you wish she just left you alone, you wish she had never snatched your job from you from right under your feet and you wish you had never met Jimin in that Starbucks.

Oh, how the tables have turned.

♔

The next few days, you stick to yourself, quieter than usual, ignoring Jimin when he’s around, you stick to a routine of going to work and coming back from work to pack your stuff, which is becoming nearly impossible because you keep finding everything out of the boxes you had placed them in and in your cupboards and dressers, exactly where they would be if not in the boxes, and you know who’s doing it, it’s the same man you can’t bring yourself to face, because you’ve lied to him this whole time, you lied to him when you said you wanted no strings attached, you lied to him when he asked you whether him and Eunha bothered you, you lied to him when you told him you found someone else, and you basically implied that you slept with someone else too. Oh, but how could he ever think that you wanted anyone other than him? He was perfect, an angel, he basically wore a halo every single day.

Moreover, you don’t want to move out anymore, you just can’t, not with how you can feel his longing stares, not with how he’s putting everything back in its place each Goddamn time you manage to get everything back in their boxes, you just really want him to talk to you, to convince you to stay, because you would if he told you that himself, really you just wanted to know whether he loved you or not, loved you in the not-very-best-friend way, in the mainly-strings-attached way.

The apartment feels colder as you return from work today, colder than it usually does, as if someone’s turned the heating down. You remember the days when the first thing you would do after you and Jimin got back from work is get changed and cuddle, because that was basically a tradition for the two of you, damn, you were starting to regret breaking things off with him, but it was the right thing to do, right? So you do your usual after-work routine, or well, the one that you now do since Jimin isn’t really a part of your equation anymore, oh, how you wish he still was.

You wrap yourself in blankets, God, it was cold, it’s never usually this cold, maybe the heating system’s fucked up, who knows, and something’s definitely up.

Your fucking blankets turn out to not be enough, and you can’t find the Goddamn plug in heaters anywhere that you’ve saved for emergencies like this, wow, doesn’t seem suspicious at all, and now you have to resort to your last chance at heat: Jimin.

Jimin’s body was like a heater in itself, it’s always warm, no matter what time of the day, where you are or what you’re doing his body is always there to warm you up, it’s one of the reasons you love cuddling with him so much, so you drag yourself out of your bed, all wrapped up like a burrito (you still wish the woman in front of you hadn’t taken the last burrito back in college) and drag yourself all the way to Jimin’s room right down the hallway, twisting the door knob and making your way in only to see all of the heaters in the apartment stacked up in boxes opposite his bed, and small, cheeky smile on Jimin’s face at the sight of you wrapped like a burrito.

‘Did you turn the heating off?’ You ask as he crosses his arms and giggles, that fucking giggle.

‘Yes,’ the smile on his face grows bigger.

‘Jimin, sir, can you please turn it on,’ you pout, this is the most normal you’ve felt with Jimin in a while.

‘No,’ he teases, causing you to pout even more, so you go wriggle your way into Jimin’s arms, it’s clear now this is what he wanted, you in his arms, ‘I’ve been waiting for you, you know? Please don’t move, I don’t care whether you have a boyfriend or if you love someone else or whatever, I love you, this isn’t exactly how I thought I’d end up telling you, but the last six months we were um… sleeping together, I realised that I was in love with you, and I think I’ve always been in love with you…yeah I’ve always been in love with you, I just didn’t see it.’

‘Jimin, there is no other guy, I just thought you were still pining after Eunha so I decided maybe I should stop what we had, it made me feel guilty and it was getting hard to keep up the act that I wasn’t in love with you,’ a smile makes its way onto your face, he loves you, he loves you, he loves you.

‘We’re such idiots,’ he laughs, ‘if it makes you feel any better, the night we… you know in the shower, I broke things off with Eunha completely, told her I had fun but I really just wanted to be with you, and then I think I spilt something ‘bout what we’ve been doing for the last few months- point is I’m sorry, I should have told you earlier and broke things off with her, especially when I found out that she was the reason you didn’t have a job back when we first met,’

‘You know? Who told you?’ You ask.

‘Eunha likes to talk a lot when she’s drunk, but that’s not the point, the point is…why didn’t you tell me?’ Jimin asks.

‘She meant so much to you, I knew you guys were close, I don’t know, I just, I wanted you to be happy even if that meant it wasn’t with me,’ you tell him.

‘Do you wanna like…you know…’ he grins sheepishly rubbing the back of his neck.

‘What? Have sex? Jimin? What do you- oh…you want me to be your-’

‘mhmm,’ he nods.

‘Really?’

‘Yes,’ he laughs, ‘so will you,___?’

‘Of course,’ you push your head into his chest, the warmth and familiarity comforting you.

‘And you won’t move out, right?’ He asks

‘Are you joking? Of course not, idiot.’ You giggle.

#btsedit mapofthesoul7 jinbts jeonjungkook jhope btsarmy suga taehyung jungkook jimin

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theliberaltony · 5 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

President Trump’s approval rating has improved slightly amidst the coronavirus pandemic. But the short-term gains, reflecting a possible rally-around-the-flag effect at the time of national emergency, may not hold. On the contrary, the strong likelihood of a potentially very deep recession triggered by coronavirus puts Trump’s reelection chances in jeopardy.

Aggressive measures to slow the spread of the disease, and economic stimulus packages that soften the economic blow, could allow the United States to rev back up to speed in the second half of the year and improve Trump’s position. Without that — even though there isn’t any perfect analogy to coronavirus in recent electoral history — the bulk of what we do know suggests that he could be in trouble.

We’ve written a lot about the effect of the economy on presidential elections here at FiveThirtyEight, especially in the run-up to the 2012 general election, when the economic recovery was a major focal point in the contest between Barack Obama and MItt Romney. For that reason, I’m going to compress a very complicated discussion into under 3,000 words here:

First, I’ll explain my basic view on how to implement an election forecast based on economic conditions.

Next, we’ll see what a series of relatively simple economic models would say about Trump’s potential performance in the fall.

Finally, we’ll run through some possible objections — do econometric models really apply for a president like Trump in the case of something like coronavirus?

To be clear: This is meant to be an opening bid rather than a comprehensive evaluation of these questions, many of which will be worth exploring at greater length between now and November.

A bad economy makes life harder for the incumbent party. Beyond that, we don’t know much.

I’ve often found myself trying to carve out a middle ground between people who think that presidential elections are strictly predicted by economic conditions — and people who think it all boils down to idiosyncratic factors such as candidate charisma and campaign strategy.

It might surprise you to learn that I’m agnostic in this debate, rather than siding with the seemingly more data-driven economic “fundamentalist” approach. The problem with the data-driven approach is that … there just isn’t all that much data to work with. There have been only 18 presidential elections since World War II. (Before that U.S. economic data isn’t very robust.) To account for all of the various ways that the economy can impact people’s lives (for example, joblessness, inflation, take-home income, etc.) — plus all of the other factors that influence elections (such as incumbency, wars, pandemics, scandals, etc.) — is not easy to do with only 18 data points.

In particular, we don’t have enough data to make overly specific claims about the economy. That is, any time you see what you might call a “magic bullet” claim, such as that second-quarter GDP is crucial or that per-capita disposable income is the key economic variable, you should be wary.

In fact, magic-bullet models such as these don’t perform very well out of sample. That’s because they’re prone to suffer from p-hacking and overfitting because of the small sample size of post-WWII elections and the large number of ways to design a model. In practice, what this means is that people designing these models can twist enough knobs so that they fit the past data well, but they don’t actually predict future election outcomes effectively when the modelers don’t know the outcome in advance.

At the same time, it’s very likely that there is some type of meaningful correlation between economic performance and the performance of the incumbent party’s presidential candidate. If you look at a wide range of economic variables, you’ll find that most of the more obvious ones (GDP or employment numbers) indicate that a stronger economy predicts a better performance for the incumbent party.

The best approach in our view — and the one we’ve used in FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecasts — is to combine various major economic variables into an overall index of economic conditions. To avoid overfitting, we choose variables that reflect a cross-section of economic activity rather than picking ones that happen to fit the results from a small number of presidential elections. In addition, FiveThirtyEight’s Economic Index averages how these numbers have changed at various points, instead of focusing on one particular time frame such as the second quarter.

Overall, the data shows a reasonably clear — although far from perfect — correlation between the economy and incumbent-party performance. Since 1968, the worst years for economic performance as of Election Day were 1980 and 2008, each of which were associated with steep losses for the incumbent party. The next-worst economic year was 1992, in which incumbent George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton. The best years for the economy, 1984 and 1972, resulted in incumbent-party landslides, although another good year, 1968, produced a narrow loss for the incumbent Democrats.

A recession would probably make Trump an underdog — although not hopelessly so

OK, let’s plug in some numbers to our Economic Index and see what it says about Trump. The goal here is to predict Trump’s margin of victory — or defeat — in the popular vote; the Electoral College is another issue and a potential advantage for Trump; we’ll talk about that more in a moment. I’m going to run four versions of the model:

Model 1: Predict the performance of the incumbent party based on the FiveThirtyEight Economic Index as of Election Day. We’ve calculated the Economic Index back to 1968, so that’s the data we’ll use.

Model 2: The same as above, but using the data for incumbents only. That means we’d include 1972 (Richard Nixon), 1980 (Jimmy Carter), 1984 (Ronald Reagan), 1992 (George H.W. Bush), 1996 (Bill Clinton), 2004 (George W. Bush), and 2012 (Barack Obama) but exclude 1968, 1976 (Gerald Ford was an unelected incumbent), 1988, 2000, 2008 and 2016.

Model 3: Predict the performance of the incumbent party based on the FiveThirtyEight Economic Index as of Election Day and the incumbent president’s approval rating as of this point in the election year. For Trump’s approval rating, that’d be 45 percent — which is his approval in polls of likely or registered voters as of March 24 in the FiveThirtyEight presidential approval tracker.

Model 4: The same as above, but for incumbent presidents only.

And for each model, I’ll run through five economic scenarios:

If the economy looks like 1984, meaning booming growth.

1996, meaning above-average growth.

2012, meaning sluggish but positive growth.

1992, meaning a mild recession, although on the brink of recovery.1

Finally, 2008, meaning a severe recession.

All right, here’s what each economic scenario looks like under each model:

Even a mild recession could make Trump an underdog

Projected Trump margin of victory or defeat in the popular vote

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 IF THE ECONOMY LOOKS LIKE … 538 Economic Index 538 Index With incumbents only 538 Index + Pres. Approval 538 Index + Pres. Approval with incumbents only 1984 R+12 R+18 R+9 R+11 1996 R+5 R+9 R+4 R+5 2012 R+2 R+4 R+2 R+2 1992* D+5 D+6 D+4 D+5 2008* D+11 D+15 D+9 D+11

* 1992 and 2008 indicate mild and severe recessionary scenarios, respectively.

Note that the models are reasonably similar to one another. However, there are some differences. Namely, the predictions are more sensitive to economic performance when we use data for elected incumbents only (Models 2 and 4). That means incumbents like Trump get a larger share of credit or blame when they’re managing the economy, rather than when the torch is being passed, such as between Clinton and Al Gore in 2000 or George W. Bush and John McCain in 2008.

The economy also matters a bit less once you account for a president’s approval ratings (Models 3 and 4) since approval ratings gives us some sense for how popular the president actually is in practice, rather than how popular he “should” be based on the economy. In the pre-coronavirus economy, Trump was less popular than you might have expected based on economic conditions. That could limit his upside in the event the economy recovers or somehow manages to avoid recession. At the same time, he’s popular enough — and partisanship is strong enough — to potentially limit his downside in the case of a recession.

Nonetheless, in the event of a mild recession — with economic conditions tantamount to 1992 — all four models predict that Trump would lose the popular vote by a solid amount, by margins ranging from 4.0 percentage points (Model 3) to 5.7 points (Model 2). And in the event of a severe, 2008-style recession, they predict a potential landslide loss, by amounts ranging from 9.1 percentage points (Model 3) to 14.6 points (Model 2). However, Trump has two potential saving graces:

First, the Electoral College. In 2016, there was roughly a 3-point gap between Trump’s performance in the popular vote, which he lost by 2 percentage points to Hillary Clinton, and in the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, which he won by about 1 point. Losing the popular vote by 4 to 6 points would probably not be enough to save Trump in the Electoral College, but it would at least be an open question.

Second, these models have fairly high margins of error, which ranges between roughly 5 points and 10 points depending on which version you use. Thus, a model showing Trump losing the popular vote by 4 to 6 points wouldn’t have to be that far off for Trump to win the Electoral College (and perhaps even the popular vote) in the event of a mild recession. In the case of a severe recession, a popular vote win would be quite unlikely, but he’d retain some outside chances at drawing an inside straight in the Electoral College.

Will models like these really work in 2020?

Do models built on ordinary business cycle crests and slumps work in the midst of a global pandemic — something that the U.S. hasn’t experienced in any recent election year?

I’m reserving my right to change my mind on this subject upon deeper philosophical reflection — but the truth is, we can’t really know for sure. When we release the full-fledged FiveThirtyEight 2020 election model later this year, we may have it use a combination of several different priors, some of which use our Economic Index and some of which do not. All of this is still in the whiteboard stage at the moment.

At the same time, there are some objections that I don’t necessarily find compelling. Each of these could make for its own article, and we may cover some of them at more length later. But let’s run through them quickly in a lighting round:

Could voters give Trump a pass because coronavirus is the cause of the recession? Maybe. But even in the case of ordinary economic booms and busts, it’s never entirely clear how much credit or blame the president actually deserves — and the answer is, probably less than he typically gets from the public.

Does Trump deserve more blame for a coronavirus-triggered recession than Bush did for the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008, or Carter did for the rampant inflation and the oil crisis of 1979 and 1980? Well, the Democrats will say yes — especially given Trump’s slow-footed, erratic response on coronavirus — and the White House will say no. But the more a recession brings hardship to families and communities, the more the Republican side of the argument will be pushing uphill.

But what about Trump’s approval rating improving since the coronavirus crisis began? Indeed, Trump’s approval rating has improved in recent days so that it’s among the highest ratings of his presidency. As I mentioned, his approval rating among voters is now roughly 45 percent, which is up from 43 or 44 percent since early March, while his disapproval rating has fallen from 52 to 53 percent to 51 percent.

However, compared with typical rally-around-the-flag effects that follow national crises, these gains are fairly meager. For instance, Bush’s approval rating improved from 51 percent to 86 percent following the September 11 attacks, and Carter’s approval rating nearly doubled in 1979 in the immediate wake of the Iran hostage crisis. (Granted, both of their ratings declined sharply from there.) But Trump is also not seeing nearly as much of an approval rating bounce as other leaders in Western countries, such as Italy’s Giuseppe Conte, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and the UK’s Boris Johnson. So it’s not clear that a small approval rating gain is a bullish sign for Trump.

Do “the fundamentals” even apply anymore? Isn’t everything different in the age of Trump? Sorry, but this is dumb. The 2016 election result — a narrow popular vote win for the incumbent Democrats given the mediocre economy — was actually fairly well-predicted by economic models. (These models don’t say anything about the Electoral College.) The 2018 midterms also went pretty much exactly how the fundamentals predicted given Trump’s middling approval rating and the typical midterm backlash against the incumbent party. Heck, even this year’s Democratic primary, in which Joe Biden is the very likely winner, has been good for the fundamentals-driven “Party Decides” view of the primaries in which the party establishment has a lot of influence.

Could partisanship dull the response to a recession? This is a better objection. With more polarization in the electorate and fewer swing voters, it stands to reason that Trump’s approval ratings will be less responsive to different news events than an earlier president’s might have been. And indeed, Trump’s approval ratings have trended within a narrow range so far throughout the course of his presidency, despite tumultuous events such as the Ukraine scandal and the impeachment proceeding against him.

There is an important catch, however. If the range of possible outcomes is narrower for Trump, that also means the margin of error is lower since the outcome is more predictable. Suppose that in less polarized times, a sharp recession would result in Trump being projected to lose by 12 points, plus or minus 10 percentage points. Given polarization, however, he might only be projected to lose by half as much, or 6 points — but the margin of error would also be half as much, or 5 points.

It’s also worth noting that Trump currently trails Biden in most general election polls by a wide enough margin that the Electoral College probably wouldn’t save him. So if higher partisanship means the outcome is more “locked in” and less likely to change, that isn’t great news for Trump.

Could an economic recovery in the second half of the year help Trump? Yes, it could. If there’s a sharp decline in economic activity over the next few months, and then a steep rebound, I wouldn’t want to have a model that only used second-quarter GDP and pretended everything that happened afterward didn’t matter.

At the same time, there is not a lot of certainty in how long the coronavirus crisis will last, nor how long the economic recovery would take. Moreover, a lot of epidemiologists worry about a potential second wave of the coronavirus in the fall, as occurred in the flu pandemic of 1918.

If I were Trump, I’d want to think six months ahead to the fall. That means I’d want a broad-based stimulus plan that helps ordinary Americans and small businesses to stay afloat during the weeks — or months-long shutdown. I’d want to stamp out the disease as much as possible — even if that means social distancing is in effect for a bit longer. And I’d want to have a Manhattan Project on treatments, testing and surveillance so that the coronavirus is more manageable until a vaccine is developed, which is unlikely until well after Election Day.

Frankly, this isn’t that complicated, and Trump’s incentives are well-aligned. The better off America is by November, the more likely he is to be re-elected.

Could A New Therapy Provide Immunity To COVID-19?

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#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nate Silver

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uhpeach · 5 years ago

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oof personal rant about boy and relationship shit below the cut it’s way too long sorry

finally had a talk with boy last night... it started bc they are having a stoplight theme party tn where you wear green if ur single, yellow if it’s complicated, and red if ur taken and he was like “so what color are u thinking of wearing”... and i was like “green i guess bc im single”. but i said it as a joke.... and he was like... “oh well i was thinking yellow”. and i was like “ya me too i guess”... and he was like “ya idk i think most people will either be red or green so we’ll be some of the few yellow ppl which is kinda fun”. and i was like “ok. ya whatever cool”. and he was like “but i’ll wear whatever u want like if u want me to wear red i will”. and i was like “no. no pressure. yellow makes sense.” but then i was making sad girl face i guess and he was like “nooo stop with that face. you’re thinking about something what’s wrong” and then we like went innnnnn with like a convo about “us” or whatever the fuck.

anyways like the things he’s worried about when considering making us official is that he:

1. says he is an extremely jealous and controlling boyfriend? and he does not like who he is as a boyfriend so if he isnt technically a “boyfriend” he has no reason to get that way/can stop himself from being like that. which i like.... dont see at all. and like maybe he had a reason to be like that with his ex but honestly i dont do much or like get hit on so i see it as a non-issue honestly? like im too into him to like even need to be “controlled” like i genuinely want to do whatever he wants bc i just want to see him happy ? but then he said that when he sees me happy it makes him happy and when i keep crying like i have been it makes him really sad and scared that our relationship would be built on a bad foundation. and i see it as the opposite like in spite of what he has done and how he’s hurt me we’ve gotten past it and grown to know each other better and like each other a lot and im still here spending time with him so like idk we think about these things very differently i guess.

2. he was thinking like soooo far in the future for some reason like... when i met him he was pursuing a finance degree in the business school but he like decided music was something he was really passionate about last year and since then he’s been like learning how to use like music production software and how to play piano since then. so he was saying like he doesn’t want me to see him as like a jobless bum loser when i could be with a guy has a secure upwardly mobile job making 60-70k right out of college while he’s like.... working as a DJ and practicing like music production stuff. and i was like..... what r u talking about like i don’t need you to support me? and if ur worried about how i’ll see you like i just want to see you happy i would rather see that than someone complaining about how much they hate their job and life every day bc like.... idk when you l*ve someone all you really want is to see them happy. and then i told him how i have bragged about him to people who like wish they could change majors about how he’s actually doing something he’s interested in rather than sticking with business school which he hatesss.

(he started crying sometime during point two into point three)

3. he was worried about not being able to give me the level of attention ur supposed to give someone ur dating. like he was saying how he practices his music stuff in his free time but like when ur dating someone ur supposed to spend like all ur free time with them but i’ll have to like share that time with his music and he like doesn’t want me to feel like he has no time for me? but i was like dude i dont need you actively paying attention when we’re together like the other night i was doing my homework in his room while he practicing and i was just so stoked to be in the room with him even though we were doing our own things. and also like the people in relationships who spend allll their time with their significant others are people i get SO ANNOYED BY i was like dude... i dont want to be like any of those couples like of course i want to spend as much time as possible with you but i have other “relationships” i need to maintain that im not just gonna drop like some of my other couple friends have. like my friendships are super important to me, probably bc i have never been in a relationship so i like really do love and put a lot of focus on my friends, so if he needs time for his music and did need some private time to focus i would just spend that time maintaining my friendships because i love and want to spend time with them too? like it’s not that deep and i’ve been alone for so long im used to it.....

i think there was more but anyway he was thinking SO FAR AHEAD and asking me like what i want to do and where i want to go after graduation and im like ????? i .. dont know ??? omg ???? what does this have to do with like dating right now like are u never gonna date anyone again until ur ready to date them until marriage im ? confused? i.. legitimately was NOT thinking this far ahead ? but then he kept bringing up how like feelings fade and he like want to make sure his college friends are lifelong friends and how a breakup would make it so that’s a more difficult thing for us to be and im like i get it ? i have brought up that point to so many people like it used to be that i cared more about having him in my life forever like at least as a friend just bc i like him so much but now it’s harder to be like that bc i like him SO SO much like... idk imagining never having been official a few years down the road and just being that girl he had a “thing” with in college. bc that’s not what i want to be to him. like if we do stop liking each other i dont want to have to meet his future girlfriend or fucking wife and be like hi im olivia.. his friend from college. like just calling what we have “friendship” hurts so bad and if i had to look at someone he like loves in the future and call myself just a friend from college that would fucking kill me. like at least if we were exes i would be like hey im his friend-ex-then friend again from college. ya haha things didnt work out but i’ll always care about this guy ur lucky to have him. ya know. there’s a difference.

and all the things i was concerned about were suchhhh immediate issues like... im only not satisfied by the relationship status of like being a “thing” bc i want to actually be taken on dates.. and have someone who would be happy to like bring me coffee if im having a rough day (and like so it wouldnt be weird if i did little things like that too) and so we could like go on a trip together or like as it stands it would be weird for me to like bring him home for a few days and be like “hello family this is my good friend :) we are going to share a bed bc we are... friends :)” like you cant tell ur family about ur “thing” bc like o ur really good friends that care a lot about each other and have sex but ur not dating... like that gives parents too much to think about it’s gross.... and it would be weird for him to bring me to like his hometown to meet his friends and what not bc we are just like ... a thing? and i WANT to do that stuff like it would mean so much to me. but like you only do that with ppl ur dating and i want to be with someone who can like share their life with me and i can share mine with them if that makes sense. also u know what i think it’s fair of me to want to be able to call someone my boyfriend like. that is a word i have never gotten to use and when i like hear it in movies and tv shows and even when friends say it i feel like im being fucking stabbed. like i have never gotten to be a girlfriend and i feel like people see me as less of a person because of that, especially being in my 20s now. idk just like societal pressures are getting to me i hate being a sociology major im like super analyzing like the roles i am “supposed” to take to live up to what it is to be a woman in our society. like i have been a daughter, a friend, a coworker, a sister but i have never been a girlfriend and that is something i feel like an innate internalized NEED to experience idk like it’s just beat into you by media and peers and parents from when ur like a kid until you actually do fulfill the prescribed gender based roles... like if i am not a wife or a mother in my life i might fucking kill myself like ik roles and labels are meaningless but i NEED THEM to like give me identity and security. anyways. uh that was a lot. if u read all this and i don’t sound insane lmk!

#SORRY THIS IS SO MUCH AND IT'S NOT EVEN EVERYTHING

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heatherrdavis1 · 5 years ago

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STOCKS WILL FALL 90%!? Bitcoin Trump Programmer explains

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

And we’re alive. Yes. Welcome to another episode of Good Morning drift on here I on Ivan on tape. We are of course broadcasting live straight out of Stockholm Sweden. And we do the show each and every day at 8:00 p.m. Central European Time gets but on weekends on weekends. It’s 11:00. So that’s why I would do 11:00 and so there’s so much of it. Guys guys we have a lot to discuss because the stock market may not be open tomorrow and during the week because we do have signals from the Trump administration that they will issue even more log down in the U.S. and you will see exactly which measures they might be taken. But you understand also if they do more log down the stock markets are not going to react well and therefore we might see a situation in which the stock market doesn’t even open. And it’s important to note that we may go down 90 percent in the stock market as a whole because during the Great Depression we went down approximately 80 to 90 percent and we haven’t gone down that much since then. But at the same time we never really had the crisis like this where everyone needs to stay at home and the economy completely completely shuts off. And now people are talking about hyperinflation even outside of crypto man. It’s insane because normally when you mentioned hyperinflation and that it may happen in our countries like in Sweden in the US people tell you you are recruited a lunatic man. What are you talking about. You’re some kind of crypto maniac and the hyperinflation can never happen in our countries in the Western world or they will tell you you’re a gold bug. You want people to buy your gold like Peter Schiff. So look at the end of the day it’s only been us who thought about hyperinflation and who thought about the possibility of all currencies hyperinflation because you know that all fiat goes to zero. And today will share with you the fact that the CEO of the pension funds here in Sweden is not some kind of person from the street. This is the CEO of the pension funds managing billions and billions now coming out and saying that we may see hyperinflation. So this is key and the global media is not talking about it but you get it here. And we yes we will be discussing that and we’ll be discussing Tasos. We will be discussing other things as well. Welcome to the show. Great to see you here. Great. All of you who are watching live. And you know I guess if you are watching on YouTube you’re not watching dislike. You really missed the opportunity because we’re only live streaming on Ivan on take dot com slash life. So go there right now and be sure to subscribe. You will see a read subscribe button there so be sure to click it right now. Straight straight away so I can show you on the screen how it’s done. You see right here you see subscribe enable web notifications and telecommunications. You can do all of this and then you can also be part of the chat because this is only a real plot and that being said everyone who is watching this live welcome. Amazing to hear it. I see crypto koala. I see Danny Hoddle. I see Dino. I see. A group that Yoda. I see women. Charles guys how are you doing. Amazing to see so many of you here on this fantastic Sunday morning right. Well Alex Lebanon where you are watching from which countries we have today because always some kind of different country which is exciting for Fabrice us always that’s always that’s always great guys to have you here. And today you know that I am drinking green tea. Nowadays green tea no milk no sugar involved. And let me know what you’re drinking. Belgium nice nice nice. Me Connecticut USA Switzerland Barcelona Holland. Amazing guys. Amazing. So good to see here. Now before we go into the markets before we go into the market overview I just want to show you this. I just want to show you this which is quite the special news coming from Sweden. Look this lady right here she is the CEO of the pension funds. I tried to translate this page but the bridge crashes when you like entrant into translate. But this is like the state news and the look. This is the most important thing and I have translated this here. Basically they’re talking about how this situation can really go out of control with the with the virus with Coronas and everything that is going on. And she’s basically saying that look we’re looking at mass unemployment at around 20 to 40 percent unemployment and this means that there are very few businesses to go to. There’s even the risk that all of this money is being blown out that we are getting hyperinflation. Look it’s like she’s in crypto now. I mean maybe she should enter the crypto industry for real because she’s talking about this like a true crypto group part of the crypto community. So so big welcome. Alex you’re talking about that all of this money that is being blown into the system might create hyperinflation along with the fact that we have no demand in the economy because unemployment is so high. Nobody has can afford anything really at the same time. You do see this old money just being printed into the into the eco system without any true productivity. And here is where it becomes dangerous. Here’s where it becomes dangerous. So that’s her point. And look I think it’s very important to also look at this globally because here is basically the unemployment numbers that may come out next week. Let me show you let me move a bit. So look we don’t have this numbers confirmed confirmed yet it’s just a survey. But the US will come out with unemployment numbers next week. And here’s what we may be looking to on a weekly datum as you can see this is way past. I mean this red chart right here is way past anything that we’ve seen. I mean it’s way past 2008. Way past the 94 93 94 83 84. It’s way past everything. And the reason is because everyone is forced to stay at home so as Remy says Houston we have a problem as L.A. San Francisco New York and other cities are going into lockdown. Jobless claims is about to have the worst week ever. This is only the beginning. This is only the beginning. And it is something that we don’t really mind. People are not taking this seriously yet. People have not really started to think in terms of a depression although on this channel we’ve been talking about it and and all across the crypto space we’ve also been talking about it for quite some time. But normal people there still in this fairy tale that the virus will just go away tomorrow and look it may go away tomorrow. But what’s important for this lady you also said the CEO like the pension funds she said as well that look you cannot just shut off the economy like politicians are doing right now with curfews and stuff and then just turn it on and and think that is going to go back to normal. And think that you can just you know on off and it’s all back you just turn it on. Hey guys we just turn it on again when all of this cronies are gone and illness is gone. But that is not of course how it works. Once you set off a domino effect even if the virus is now gone everyone is happy to work happy to do business. It may be very difficult to turn it back on once the chain reaction really starts. We do see bankruptcies we do see insolvencies. We do see banks failing. It’s not something you can just turn back on and that’s it. So please keep it in mind please keep it in mind. Very very much. Now looking on the crypt Marcus we have bitcoin plus 4 percent where we feed him plus 3 percent of SRP plus two point nine percent whatever that they’re keeping one dollar and keeping the peg people still trusting and tether between cash two percent I mean all in all quite green market quite good quite good. Just continuously looking at the double digits here in the top 50 you have decreed that 20 percent else do you have no one else at double digits. The biggest winners of today are swipe 65 percent secret 19 see acquiring steam also performing with all of their issues they’re still performing well today hex. Who would have believed it 10 percent. Let me know if you Hoddle hex. Yeah I mean the reason why we’re seeing hex is because it’s quaint paprika like the only Web site where they have hex or not because Richard is always complaining that they’re not adding hex and other Web sites and that they are calculating it wrong. But anyway hex 10 percent or 8. So all in all quite bullish Marcus and looking at the losers. We don’t even have losers lexicon. No losers guys no losers as always. We do have our webinar is going to happen next week March 26. Keep it in mind completely free we’re talking about how to stack massive amounts of sass. Use the link below to sign up just scroll down right now and sign up it’s completely free and only sign up if you haven’t been in decades Academy. And if you haven’t been on the previous one obviously you can sign up as well but then you will recognize a lot and we do have our collaboration with the Bible. So I guess if you are trading bitcoin if you want to trade the theorem yours or SRP This is the platform for you. It is the change that we prefer right now the most. Why. Because the technical solution is amazing but also because they have great supports if you have any question just click here to support. I mean obviously we can long you can short you can use leverage up to 100 days which is important to lower timeframes but you should be extremely careful if you’re not a trader. If you’re just starting out you should really learn how to trade first and then use it. But yes use the link below. And you can get a great deal if you use the link below. So definitely do that. Now moving into the most important news of today it is the fact that we might see a complete shutdown of the whole nation of the U.S. as you will see in this in this article. But also when it comes to the stock market because you can not shut down and you cannot do what the president may have to do very soon without without actually shutting off the markets because the markets if they did not going to handle it they’re not going to handle that is at least how they are reasoning at least how they are thinking. So basically we may see next week and shelter in place which means the president will be asked to stay home and not leave the residence until unless they travel or unless it’s an emergency. So there are two travel lessons emerge. We can also mean travel unless it’s emergency. And so this is according to various publications and according to different sources this is not completely confirmed but you do see this going online right now and and people are writing about this a lot right now. And look it’s not impossible to reason because this is the situation we’re seeing all across the world already that people are asked to stay at home. This is not that that’s strange and it would just be normal if we’re seeing it in the US next week so Trump is also considering grounding all U.S. passenger planes. No no one will be allowed to take a plane to another state and the sources familiar with the matter say the measure being considered is for an unspecified timeframe. Also you got to realize that the U.S. president and the bipartisan members of Congress have already enacted several sets of orders like enforcing compressions to produce certain goods. So for example if you have a factory and you can produce medical supplies you will be forced to do that. And we’re seeing it across the world already in some countries and also in some countries you cannot export to your goods to other nations if it is needed in your country. So this is what we are already seeing in Europe that if you can provide for example medical supplies you can provide hand gel you know this alcohol gel then first and foremost you sell to your own country. And then if there’s anything left you can expert maybe but that’s also big maybe. So we’re seeing it in other countries as well in Europe. It might be true in the U.S. very very soon and EU officials and unnamed sources I mean you’ve got to take it maybe with a grain of salt because we don’t know exactly who it is a told The Washington Examiner that the Trump administration is seriously considering to shut down the stock market at the same time it grounds the U.S. passenger fleet. And Trump’s orders a nationwide shelter in place and it’s also it also makes perfect sense because look the markets will not be able to take this well. They’re not looking good guys. This is not good. We’re falling through the floor. This is the fastest collapse basically ever. We’ve never seen this fast collapse of the S&P. Look we’ve already fallen with 33 percent. I mean if you look at the bottom here it’s like 34 percent. It’s a lot. Yes man. It’s so much during such a short period of time. Look in the previous recession here we fell by approximately by approximately fifty seven 57. And it took so much longer time took my so much longer time to get to the bottom and all and all the wool fell from all time high 57 percent. Here we are already at 30. And it took just one week one two weeks. It’s insane. Yes it’s absolutely insane buy in two weeks we are already down this much and you see here how many weeks is it took here to go down. I mean we’re talking about 500 days overall. So yeah it was a long journey down and you were taking the elevator within the two weeks. Now the only way to really see a comparison to this because we might we may go way lower than 50 percent. It is actually the Great Depression and look Trading View. I didn’t find a good chart that went all the way back to the 1930s but we do have this right here on macro trends. And if you look at how much will fell how much S&P fell in at that time we basically were at four hundred four hundred seventy four at the peak and we went all the way down to let’s see if I can actually prick. Yeah. Eighty eighty four ish ish. Even lower man if you zoom zoom in. Let me let me try to zoom in. But this was one of the biggest false ever in human history if not the biggest. Yeah. It shows 84 Ish Ish Ish Ish. So look this may be comparable to this. This may be comparable comparable to this but at the same time you realize that it’s difficult to say exactly how much lower is going to be and seeing the fact that we went 60 percent in the last one seeing a great depression even lower seeing everything that is going on. You understand that at the end of the day we might of course see numbers at minus 80 percent in the stock market minus 9 C. It’s not impossible because we’ve seen it before and this situation right here where everyone stays at home zero demand for anything. Everyone is just sitting at home. There is no production because you cannot go to work. There’s no demand. There is no productivity. Then of course we might see minus 18 minus 90 percent in the stock market. It’s not it’s not that far fetched to be honest. So what does it say. What does it tell us. It tells us that the Trump administration might not want that right now. So it tells us before the election going down 90 percent of the stock market. Will not be a good thing. So of course shutting down the stock market for a one week two weeks it’s not completely out of the question. And we’ve had this before the last time was during the 9/11 attacks where President Bush closed until the September the 17th. So from 9/11 to September 19th it was closed. Basically a week a bit less then. We also saw the stock market drop by 14 percent on the day of this open after a week of closure in thirty three during the Great Depression we did actually see the President shut down the stock market as well. So you know that Roosevelt created Emergency Banking Act shutting it down. But at the same time with most people don’t remember is that at this time all gold was confiscated so federal. Sorry. Roosevelt was also behind this gold hoard the ban so we can not even have any gold and order as people’s stashes of gold were stolen and repatriated at a bad price. Very bad price. Basically they stole the gold from the population and then gave dollars for a very very bad price because once the trading opened again Gold prices soared. And you’re still with you and you’re stuck with your cash that the government gave you which is way less than what it was worth just a short while afterwards. On the free markets I mean it’s insane it’s insane guys and we don’t really know what’s gonna happen. Bitcoin is up ninety nine point ninety eight percent. That is the thing research on offer there is no way to shut down bitcoin but you gotta understand that once again and especially in 2020 people are swift learning that the American government and by the way any government any government will do whatever it wants. When there is a crisis. So just keep this in mind as if this is big. This is big. The situation we’re in is big is nothing to hide it’s nothing to really try to minimize or make it less serious. It is very serious and this is this is not looking good. Yemen is to get to it took very very quick to go all the way here. Anyway let me know what you think. Let me know what you think. It’s it’s not it’s not looking good at least from my perspective now obviously obviously it all depends on how much the cronies are here how long they’re here for and it may be the case that they are disappearing very quickly that this illness goes away and then may maybe the fact is we don’t really see this big dominoes fall yet that yes it’s possible to turn the economy back on that. Yes it’s possible to go back but at the same time it’s not looking good at all right now right now. But also what’s important to note is that if you live in the country where this thing hasn’t really taken off like in Sweden it’s not currently is not that big here. And it seems most people are relaxed. People don’t really care a lot. They go into town they basically do what they’ve always done to large extent to a large extent. Hotels Of course and the travel businesses are hurting because people are not travelling but when it comes to just walking around being in the sunshine people are completely completely cool with that. So if you’re not living like in Italy or Spain or China you don’t really experience how severe it is. And so for most people of course the symptoms as far as I understand they’re not very severe. So we’re going to see. Maybe it is the case that this blows over quickly that the world will say OK guys we overreacted with the curfews let’s just let’s roll them back. But it doesn’t look like that at least for now. So let me know your opinion on this in the chats right now. India will be the new hotspot says Jimmy. Yes it sounds likely to be honest with you. Sounds likely not gonna happen says Charles. Let’s see Ivan chat idea rather than typing out. We can simply click. Oh yeah. Yeah. That’s a good idea. You can click. Oh yeah. That was actually a good idea. You don’t have to eat or you don’t have to type at. You just write the user name and then it will be highlighted. But that’s a very good idea actually. So when you click someone’s user name it will add it to your message. So that’s good user name on the click. That’s actually a good idea. Because right now what I do is that I copy paste user name in order for it to to highlight that for the other person when they send the message. But yes it’s easier to just click it will get worse before it gets better says Al. Alex in Belgium we are in complete lockdown without the government calling it a lockdown. It’s all about Worthing and it’s kind of kind of kind of the same situation that might unfold in Sweden as well. I don’t know. For now Sweden is quite relaxed. You can still travel here it’s still open. There’s no like super super hardcore curfews there and there are no curfews. But you’re not allowed to do gatherings of more than 500 people. That is the only thing basically. And look it’s not some kind of Armageddon. It’s not that big of a difference. So basically different strategies as we’ve been discussing that here. It’s more relaxed. You know we want to have this herd immunity in other countries. It’s more lockdown. We’re going to see. We’re going to see. I mean the good thing at least is that the economy is at least I mean it’s not complete shutdown. The shut shut off. And the numbers right now are showing that this strategy of not completely going into lockdown is working at least according to me it is working because it’s not that we do see some kind of an anomaly numbers here of some kind of Armageddon numbers in Sweden but Sweden is way more relaxed when it comes to shutting it off. And it’s good for the businesses because we don’t see this domino effect of bankruptcies like in other countries. It’s a bit better here but it’s not good. It’s not good either because a lot of course depends on exports. A lot depends on tourism. And there is not much like the government can do even if they try to to make it go better yet there is not much they can do because it’s so small nation it’s so export dependent. So doesn’t really matter what we do here. Then they were all affected by everything else. So that that’s important it does like that in most European countries like small nations they need to export. Let’s see Armageddon Mortal Combat. Right right right. China is stable. My girlfriend is from China. Lives in Barcelona. We’ll see. But you know in China they’re good at making sure people don’t go out there making sure you know when you go out there you may be in big trouble. I don’t know how it is in Spain because I haven’t been in Spain since this whole situation. But if you are living in Spain let me know what happens if you if you if you go out despite the curfew what will happen to you legally will they take you physically and put in jail straight to jail. I’m thinking about this sketch you know being yourself straight to jail or is it something that is completely cool you may get the fine and then you do whatever you want still. That’s the biggest issue with the Europe. I mean it’s good of course you don’t want to have a totalitarian totalitarian regimes. So it’s good it’s not bad. But in this particular situation with curfews it may not be working that well compared to totalitarian regimes. So yeah. OK yes. My wife is also Chinese and her family back home. Yeah it’s normal. Got very very very cool. I mean look at the end of the day this Corona thing might blow over. Coronas anyway moving on Yes we have some sad news from Russia unfortunately because the politicians don’t like crypto. They want to ban it. Basically you have this bill coming out and the creator of the bill one of these politicians saying that this is a senior Russian official has warned is delayed bill on digital assets will include a ban on issuing and selling crypto currencies. MAN Yeah this is big because Russia is one of the most important markets for crypto looked being in crypto now for since 2013 and working full time since 2017. I can tell you there’s so much Russian activity in crypto but at the same time it’s not necessarily that they’re based in Russia. They’re based all across the world but the Russians love crypto. I can tell you that we believe that there are big risks of legalizing the operations with crypto currencies from standpoint of financial stability. What does this mean. It means that the the Fiat garbage that their currency is an old currency is our fiat right now and they’re all garbage but it means that they don’t want competition of course because they’re even saying that look the ruble is the only way the only way to pay for things in Russia here. The ruble as the law says is the only legal means of payment in Russia. So obviously they don’t want competition because everyone understands that it’s garbage. It’s lost 50 percent. Like overnight a few years ago 2016 or 15 don’t remember exactly but if you lived there you of course remember when it lost that much. So obviously and that is by the way it’s like that in most countries it’s in most countries. Look at Norway. Look at Sweden. How much we’re losing against the dollar right now. So everyone understands that the national fiat currencies it’s it’s it’s not a good idea for you to handle that long term. And the thing is you always want to create demand. So that is why. That is why when you pay taxes you have to pay. In your national currencies because they need demand for their for their old coin basically for for their garbage. So taxes is maybe the most important demand because whatever you’re doing you will be buying your national currency to pay the taxes. There’s no way other way to pay it in the US. In some states you can pay it in bitcoin. It’s really mind blowing that you can. But in most countries you can’t. You have to buy their fiat. You have to do it. And so the same as of course when paying for things. And basically this if there is and this is a lie because they need demand for it and they need the masses that they can print more money and and do all kinds of operations whether it is funding government projects whether it is corruption whether it is whatever. Look the government wants to be able to print money. That only works if that money has some kind of demand. And the demand from the other ones is it has some kind of buyers that they can dump on. Basically look being encrypt crypto looking at all consumers so much because this is exactly how these central banks work. Look at all costs when they dump on the on their community. When they tried to create some kind of demand and then dump we’ve seen so much in 2007 seem like this low quality old coins that they tried to create some kind of demand some kind of excitement so they can basically dump their banks or create new currency and dump it. So you learn so much from crypto about how the world actually works because this is exactly like that. This is exactly like that. So anyway we’ll see. Yes. Now this is not banning owning crypto so nobody is going to ban owning crypto currencies because that’s impossible because it’s impossible to do it. But if you want to have an exchange you want to have a brokerage you can do anything. So yeah I guess it’s a bit sad. It’s a bit sad. Now we have a Tasos foundation trying to settle their lawsuit. This is very important for them to do because they are in the risk of being deemed a security. So they’re trying to just shut down this lawsuit because it’s been so much time. And they’re saying that’s expensive and time consuming lawsuits you know it needs to end because it’s meritless and and they continue to deny any wrongdoing because look Tesla is under heat from their investors because their investors are and are basically claiming that this is this his securities sale and they want their money back basically. And this has been going on for quite some time and they want 25 million so now there’s some kind of settlement being proposed by Tasos. And we’ll see if we’ll see what happens. But this settlement might be important because it may help dazzles to avoid future problems with regulation because if this goes further the judge might deem them a security. So that’s that’s the big thing for Tesla’s that they might avoid being a security and that being said guys that that doubles all the news content for this fine Sunday morning. All in all to summarize we do have talks about hyper inflation in high places like the CEO of one of the biggest pension funds in Sweden now talking about hyperinflation. We do have U.S. economy not doing that well stock markets crashing. We might not to insist on markets open next week or just being halted later in the week and Russia binding its banning businesses that are doing cryptocurrency trading or selling and unemployment may be a record high in the US like historically heights if this this plays out. This is a Bloomberg survey. You know this this red dots right here is a survey done by Bloomberg. How much the U.S. will lose jobs how many jobs will disappear. As you can see it dwarfs all other crises like during 2008 or during the 80s like this is unprecedented because this situation is unprecedented. Very special situation that we are in right now. Anyway guys what is your view on this whole situation. Let me know in the chat looking on Bitcoin. Obviously want to know what will happen to bitcoin based on all of this news and look at the end of the day short term it might be a good idea to really have both bullish and buyers because we don’t know look we are at a crossroads right now. We are at a crossroads. Are no clear super bullish signs except for for the halving which is the most super bullish sign ever. There are no clear super bearish signs either despite the fact that one might go down and retest the forecast three point nine okay. And overall we are in a downward trend right now and that’s obviously not something that is good. We are still huddling the 200 weekly moving average. That’s important but all in all looking on Bitcoin is basically on the at the crossroads. It’s not something that is particularly bullish or bearish about this whole situation. We’re just going to see what the market tells us. I mean you know that personally I am biased bullish for me even this is bullish because look we do have the having the most important event of this for a four year cycle and I do think it will it will play a big role and it is just in in the month one and a half months basically. So that is that is absolutely big. But all in all right now guys keep a close eye on the stock market because it may have a big effect on the crypto market short term and that’s why we’re covering it. That’s why we’re absolutely covering it and it’s very key to look at it right now because people are worrying they’re worrying about their funds they’re worrying about everything. Now as I told you previously this is only the first half of this recession the second half of this recession might look very different because in the first half everyone is just selling everything for dollars. But once you’ve sold all your assets for dollars because all assets are now falling in in relationship to the dollar once you’ve sold everything now you’re sitting with dollars. OK. So what is the next step. What have you achieved because you’re still seeing the Fed going bananas printing like crazy. Do you get zero return on this capital. You will if you study it you will understand that deflation comes before hyperinflation. So you will be looking for something else you will be looking for safe haven you will be looking for gold and you will be looking for bitcoin. So that is how I think the second half of this whole situation will be and we’ll see we’ll see if that theory holds. And let me know what you think. And guys don’t forget our webinar which is on March 26 and it’s a webinar how to stack massive amounts of stats in this bull market and it’s completely free. You check the link below. You click it and do this if you haven’t been in the previous one. And if you haven’t been in that category. All right we’ll go on the Jaguars. Let’s see. Barcelona permission to step out at home. Oh Fabrice I see that you have watched the documentary about the money because Fabrice now is educated saying that once velocity picks up with the influx money will go bad once we spend it. Exactly. So guys once again go and watch the hidden secrets of money. And by the way next Monday we’re going to have an interview live with Mike Maloney. It’s gonna be amazing man. He’s he’s he’s a documentary about this whole situation is so good. So he’s talking about that when the Fed prints all of this money the money doesn’t lose its value in the beginning in the beginning. Why. Because people are scared during a crisis like now. People are scared. They’re not spending money they’re hoarding. They’re hoarding everything. So we have a bunch of funds on the sidelines. They’re not being circulated. The velocity of money is very low. The demand is low but the Fed is just spraying money everywhere but the prices don’t increase. In fact they decrease because people are still selling all of their assets. And so we have this pile of cash on the sidelines once this velocity increases. Once people start spending again that is when hyperinflation hits. I mean that that is basically in your short explanation of this. Leg. Yes watch episode seven of hidden secrets of money and subscribe to. Yes yes yes yes exactly. My helicopter money all went in bitcoin does good stuff. That’s good. People will change their mindset in positivity. Things like vaccine comes out. Yeah yeah I think. Yes. Yes of course. But the economy as we discussed is not that you can just turn it on and off like gear like your PlayStation or x box or not. It’s not like that. Once you shoot dominos falling it might take 10 years before it recovers and dominoes of course of of bankruptcies and defaults. Hi Ivan I’m writing from Barcelona. The thing about continent here is that you get fined if you’re not. If you’re going to show if you’re not going to shop for food or medicine OK we’re going to get fined fines vary by region. More or less range from 300 to 600 euros an extreme case. Wow. You get 34 K euro in fine. If you have extreme disobedience. Got it. Got it. Got it. Got it was the girls. But the real danger will come. By the way pretty old. Yes we do have a huge huge earthquake in Croatia. Yeah. It’s not good. Let me know if you’re watching this from Croatia guys because I also read that there is a huge earthquake. Ivan have you ever linked a wallet with unstoppable domains. Doesn’t look easy. Yeah yeah I have. It’s super easy. It’s super super easy. Just e-mail their support. They will help you. They have great support. Ivan y’know starting Bitcoin in next so and borrow dollars that way you can do that. You can do that but you’re trusting them that’s the thing. Also you can check out the review of P H just look a few videos back on my channel. You will find this review of P H which is basically like next so but they are newer and they sponsor their channel you should know that. So we did a review of them but their interest rates I mean they’re new. So they’re trying to bring something to the table trying to compete so their interest rates are super low is is below 1 percent. So check out next so check out Celsius but check out also P H I mean page they’re called something else but I don’t want to say their name because it sounds very funny. Ivan shill Kazim I feel it man. Right now we’re focusing on webinar we’re focusing on webinar. So guys if you’re not in the academy and you haven’t been on webinar go and sign up right now but obviously if you are already part of the academy and you’ll like it and I know many of you absolute like it. So it’s very good guys. When you give us good feedback it’s amazing. You can of course become Ophelia so go to the start page click here and then you can also earn money with us if you on board new students. Ivan I’m going to precious metals and Bitcoin mainly. What do you think. Well I think you should be prepared to lose money in the beginning because we’re still in the press in deflation. So both gold and Bitcoin might go down even more because we are in this first first stage so we should be prepared for that long term no financial advice. What I think is amazing long term I think it’s very good because look people will or people will go to gold at the end of the day. It’s is absolutely like that. So yeah that’s how I think that is. So look for example here. So let me show it to them. We’ve seen this happen exactly the situation here is 2008 and we’re looking at gold by the way we’re looking at the gold price in 2008 right here. Gold collapsed by approximately 30 percent so during the crisis gold’s collapsing 30 percent gold right now is also collapsing as you see here but you see what happened then. Gold completely exploded to the upside. UPS is completely explode to the upside here. And increase basically by man 170 one thousand 80 percent. So look it’s it’s always like that. You see deflation and then you see inflationary but this is a normal recession. The one recession we’re witnessing right now probably will be different. Well this may be even higher because the inflation might be way higher. So definitely keep that in mind that we may still you don’t know exactly where we are on this kind of chart. We’ve still may be just way through. And gold will go down even lower before we see this. So now we’re all in a similar situation. We’re seeing gold retrace. But if you can learn anything from history it is the fact that it’s not it’s not like that forever. Ivan let us assume that governments around the world decide to switch to bitcoin. How would that look like I mean would governments make it would Garrus make still still sense at all the governments. No no. Look it will be reserve asset. So it will be a reserve asset. Now will it be used in everyday trade maybe. Maybe. But primarily we’re looking at a reserve asset so that that’s the first step. That is what I think about when I hear adoption at least a government adoption. By the way if you also want interest you can go and you can scroll down if you’re watching this live you will see best crypto deals. And even if you scroll down on YouTube and check the description you will see this link about the best crypto deals I can show to hear as well. And if you go if if you go there you will see this Web site and you can also try crypto dot com to earn to earn interest on your crypto. If you are huddling so definitely do that. And then when you sign up you get 50 dollars. And I also guess this is ours. But this is mainly for all of you who want to earn interest on on crypto. So you know you have cell 60 up next. So you have a few of over the CFP is chef group dot.com. So this ones would do have collaboration with as well so you can get 50 dollars. What else is going on in the Charlie’s. And soon they’ll add backs as gold. OK. Catalan government is preparing an app and carried out magazine. Well you will get a responsible certificate like a good boy. If you carried the app so you get the certificate. Man you need the certificate. Doesn’t sound that sounds a bit weird like I don’t need this certificate. They all do need to download this app so we can track you basically your every step your every move your every breath and then you will get a good boy big boy certificate that you have been behaving well. Sounds sounds insane man. Am I understanding correctly. Barcelona man I don’t want to get to a conspiracy theoretic but basically they are tracking you full time and you get certificates. Man it’s. This is the certificate. OK. I don’t want to open that Google Drive Helling but look it’s. I don’t want to get to conspiracy theories. But you see when crises like this come and they force you to do all kinds of weird stuff like having this app they track you all the time. Now when the crisis is over they may of course repeal a bit of that control but they always don’t repeal everything. There is a bit left after each crisis. You have this emergency measures now everyone needs to do this and this and this give up all your freedoms and they say it’s temporary. When the crisis is over they say OK now we remove a bit we don’t remove everything we still may listen to your phone. We still may track you but we remove a bit. So yeah it’s getting worse actually with each crisis. So yeah everything will go down every little panic. And we will buy everything. That’s a good plan. I like it. Yeah I mean you get you. I think it according to me at least I’m telling myself that you got to be buying. I mean obviously. Obviously you don’t know how far it will go. We might with only down by 30 percent and we might go to 90 minus. But you understand that it’s it’s good prices even today. I haven’t I’m currently in JavaScript courses and they’ve been completing lectures. Oh you’re a weekly achievement. Oh man. You look e-mail support at Ivan dot Academy and we’re still working on that dashboard. If you think about the dash dashboard e-mail support that Ivan dot academy and they will take a look at your dashboard. Yeah. So in the academy we’re experimenting with these dashboards but they’re still in beta guys. They’re still in beta we still might have things to fix there. But. But basically you can see how well you’re performing in that cage match against other people and stuff like that. Yeah. Let me know by the way if. If. But it should work. But e-mail them. They will check it out. They will check it out. It doesn’t have a max supply like the Fed. Not really the Fed man because at the end of the day you do have. I mean in one way you don’t know the supply of if in another way it’s completely different from the Fed because you do have an underlying protocol and you do have an underlying community. And anyone can be part of that community. So can you be part of that community. Absolutely not. It’s kind of like in Bitcoin as well. By the way if you think about it Bitcoin smacks supply can be changed. Of course it can be changed just a number I can change it. You can change it. The thing is that it needs to be adopted by the nodes by the network. And the only reason why Bitcoin has 21 million is because it’s very difficult to convince everyone to install your update. So if a theorem foundation with Alec goes bananas and inflates if not you will install it because you’ve got to also understand that you have different stakeholders so you have for example maker Dow they have a huge power because they have oracles that that that are feeding all defy ecosystem the prices. So without maker you don’t really have defied. So italic needs to be in consensus with maker if they’re not in consensus with Alec wants to do something maker doesn’t want to do something well then italics change will not have Delphi basically. So it’s very different. And you can say that beta is also like the Fed because if if a large amount of minors and the developers come together of course they can change twenty one million of course. So yeah. But but. There is no way. Look in one way it feels that some people think that there’s some kind of magical property to to bitcoin that it’s always going to be like twenty one million. There’s some kind of magical property to the block chain but at the end of the day it is just this function that we discussed get block actually showed that sub sub but actually showed it yesterday. The only thing that is. Let me see is it validation that C++ lets you get block sub. Yeah. Here look you change this number from 50 to something else. You can double triple. You can do whatever with a supply. But then everyone needs to update does a thing. The same with if of course developers can do crazy things but then everyone has to update. So yeah it’s not like the Fed and Bitcoin is not like the Fed but here is basically how much reward miners are getting in each block. And this is really what says this 21 million because if you look at the fact that if we have more than 64 Hollings we don’t do any more hauling. So there will never be more than 60 for Hollings. And then if you run through the calculations here and you and you count how many blocks we’ll get 50 rewards. How many blocks will you get twenty five twelve point five six point twenty five and so on so forth then you end up with them with 21 million. So that’s the only thing if you change this variable right here it’s is gonna be different. What would it be good to have. Limit supply in if not really for it to be honest and it is two different assumptions about security. So eith one to have a inflation that is never ending. So they know that they will be able to pay for mining for for security through time they will be able to do it. Bitcoin is a bit more of a gamble because we’re gambling with the fact that transaction fees will be enough. So we do have this assumption that transaction fees will be enough and we don’t need block subsidy. Will it be like that. Maybe we’ll see. We’ll see. I talked to Dan held or head though. Apparently he had done some calculations that say that it will be like that. So it will work out but we don’t know practically. But theoretically according to his calculations it will work out. He basically look at how much the transaction fees are growing and how much they are replacing the block reward. So according to his research is gonna be all good but we’re making this assumption that the demand because right now the security is paid for by the demand in bitcoin that we can print new bitcoin and we can sell it on the market with dump it on the market and the market will absorb it and then we can go and pay for electricity. That is what we’re doing right now. Now in the future is going gonna be transaction fees. So now it’s different kind of demand. Now its demand for actually transacting and using the network and it’s not necessarily the same thing that is happening right now. Because right now we’re only we’re only relying on the fact that people value bitcoin that they hold it. Maybe they sell they buy a bit but they value bitcoin. That is what is paying for security right now in the future. We’re going to be relying on the transactions and that people will be actively using the network a lot a lot a lot each and every day that’s going to pay for security. And look it’s two different things like it’s two different demands of of two different things of Bitcoin like. One is justified this valuable and you don’t have to do a lot of transactions. This is what’s being right now. And here you have to do a lot of transactions. That is what’s going to pay in the future. Look it’s it’s all experimental. And the same with just different strategies. But obviously there is no way to cheat I don’t know how you would change 21 million. It would be completely crazy. But you know that Peter Todd. Wants to change that. And Peter Todd is one of the core developers. So look I don’t want to be a party pooper so to speak but. But I think you guys have been crypto enough to know the truth to know the truth because obviously when I’m explaining crypto to new people I am saying that it’s 21 million. That’s it. But when you when you start a bit more let’s see if I can. Yeah. Here. So Peter Todd is one of the people who wants to raise twenty one million constraint because he wants to be able to pay for security. So the reality is that it’s still social. It’s still social consensus. Yeah it’s. And that is the core. It’s not some kind of magical math. It’s still social that we don’t we we as a community make sure that if zero is a crazy crazy update with don’t tablet Yeah that’s it. I would have gold in my home if I didn’t lose it every year in a tragic boat accident. You live in the boat or what. Let’s see. Women tragic boat. Interesting. Me please name publicly recognize the the the the the. Yeah. DaVinci J 15 said his sell his house to go all in and buy Bitcoin. Hmm well right now we’re not. I know I know Tom Waits is also talking about going all in at 2.8 or something. You talked about but you know DaVinci he she is well off to say the least to say the least. So it might not be a good strategy for for everyone else. Any safe place or condition for buying verified legit gold in general. Well look I’m not a big buyer of gold so I cannot help you. Maybe someone in the shadows is a big buyer of gold. Be humble and Bitcoin says Eric. Yes. Because you never know what’s going to happen. Anything can happen. What probability do you give. For one case to prove a scenario. And how would that play out with some old coins like if so old coins will follow. Auctions will follow. And you understand a hyper Well I still give it just 10 percent 10 15 percent. Socrates gives it 90 percent right now. But to go down to 1 k is just look it’s not impossible but then would see true capitulation man. Then we have truly truly lost l lost a lot of faith at the same time. You need to see a full capitulation in order for us to restart and really go into a bull market. So maybe that’s what’s needed because in one way you see that when we bounced from 3 K last year in May and then we went all the way to 14 K. It felt a bit too quick. I mean we all were amazed how quick it is it was really a show of strength in bitcoin at the same time. Now looking at a situation where we are in right now and having like the correct answers in hand having I mean in hindsight when you look at the situation you can say that basically we did not see too much struggle too much struggle in the markets and the markets always want to maximize the struggle and pain before the reset because we want old weak hands to sell. So maybe that’s what’s happening right now that we’re maximizing our collective pain so. So at all we cancelled out and the summer so it could be it could be but still for me it’s a low percentage but it’s not impossible. I am I am listening to that success is a game that it’s it’s it’s on the radar at least it’s on the radar for me. Many people don’t even have it on the radar but that one case scenario is on the radar and right now as I told you previously in this episode it’s like at the crossroads I it’s difficult to be bullish but also difficult to be bearish. It’s essential it tells you that it’s. Yeah. So that’s why it’s important to focus on other things like the economy because this is gonna tell a lot you a lot more than studying only bitcoin right now because bitcoin is a small piece of a bigger puzzle. So that’s why we’re focusing on this right now. Let’s see. Distribution England would be a good life but not in a depression. Fabrice That’s correct. I am not listening to Socrates as women might. You will have to listen look it’s not listening or not. Doesn’t really matter but it’s important to have it on the radar. But you don’t have to. Obviously like you don’t have to. Evan can you talk about QE. What does being implement. It’s a lot man. It’s so much that you’re all almost losing track. You do have repo operations 1 trillion per day. You have 700 billion being deployed. Now they’re trying to change legislation that it will be possible for the Fed to buy stocks directly directly. I think next week we might see news about this. So yes that’s that’s big. It’s all it’s so much it’s difficult to keep track of everything. It’s a lot. Have I mean we’ve been discussing the the repo operations the VA emergency. This was called pandemic PPE man. What is called. I need to google this because it’s like a full package. Let’s see pandemic emergency. Oh maybe it’s by package maybe a pandemic emergency package. Yeah. I mean that one is what is it like few trillion. It’s a lot. Yes it’s a lot. But the most important thing to understand is that this will only continue. This is not something that’s going to be over in one two one two weeks one two months. Let’s see it and were speaking about up to a trillion. Look it would be now we’re really talking about the big stuff. There are a lot of stuff going on but you got to be looking at the big stuff. So look it would be the third coronavirus eight plan to be considered by Congress just this month. Trump signed the first eight point three billion package. This is only the beginning. Eight point three billion and this was on March 6. So this all happened on March 6. Since then we’ve completely completely exploded. Since then we’ve seen daily trillion operate. I mean it all started with just eight point three billion and this was from the government. Then the Fed also stepped in with trillions. And yet I mean it’s it’s a lot. But it’s a good point. We should we should have a summary of everything so we can point out. Yeah. What does the Russian government think of if it’s made by the italic. So what I. I don’t think they care a lot to be honest with you who is made for her. But the dialogue has been of course seen a lot with the government officials in Russia. I don’t think it’s anything significant they’re not using it for that much right now. And as as we discussed previously they will most probably ban crypto trading and crypto exchanges in Russia. So whether it’s made by Vitaly or not then Vitaly in Russia. I don’t think it matters a lot at all to be honest with you where he was born. What do you think about. But at the same time Alex is also a good question because it’s not impossible to imagine that the guys in high places in Russia got good deals on if and that they were positive for a while so they could they could cash out their positions but now is that they may be all out. So so now it’s time to ban made it that’s how how that was. Do you think VPN could be used to avoid this ban. Well not really. Because they’re going after businesses. They’re not going after you. So they’re going after businesses. Black pigeon says that CV cronies could have euro by our. Yeah maybe. Maybe we have to we have also to do things the way we spend our money where we have also two things the way man please work on your English Mac Bean. I don’t even understand what you’re writing. Ivan will we ever have a boxing match against the example that we’ve fantastic to be honest. That would be fantastic. Or just have or just have him on the channel. That would be great. Anyway guys thank you so much for watching yet again. I truly appreciate you helping out helping out with questions helping out with topics you are helping a lot. Thank you so much as always. Be sure to check out our webinar completely free. Be sure to check out the link below for by bit you get a great deal if used the link below you can long you can short you can trade Bitcoin if you use SRP and you get a great deal if you use the link below go to Ivan told us com slash deals or use the link below for Best Script deals and check out scripts come if you want to earn interest on your script or if you want to get like a credit and debit card crypto bank debit card. Also we have several domains we have glass no don’t channel. I mean you do get a lot of great deals here. That being said thank you so much. Once again if you’re watching on YouTube go to. I wouldn’t like the com slash live. That is the only way to watch it live any. All right. If you are now watching on. I want to get to com slash live. Be sure to click all of this like subscribe enabled web alerts and notifications on telegram. At least one of them you should pick so you’re always up to date. So that being said Guys thank you so much. And I’ll see you all tomorrow at 8 a.m.. Back back to Goodman Group Two back to work. Back to work day. This kind of the vacation for me. This is WEEKEND FOR ME. WHEN WE DO AT 11:00 so tomorrow my vacation is over we’re going to go back to 8:00 a.m. So have a good day and good byes. Goodbye goodbye goodbye.

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jeffrmayhugh · 5 years ago

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scottmapess · 5 years ago

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sarcasticdebate · 6 years ago

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Two Photos from Last Christmas

Relationship: Emori/John Murphy

Rating: T

Word Count: 5,275

Summary: Murphy got Emori’s Christmas gift back in March. Since then he’s lost his job, been dumped, lived on Bellamy’s couch, changed career paths entirely, and has finally gotten his own place only to rediscover that Christmas present. The problem is he has no idea what to do with it now. [Modern AU]

“John?” It’s Emori, calling out at the mouth of the stairwell, the rain matting down her hair, her cheeks and nose a violent red, and her lips cracked. She’s beautiful. He wants to tear his heart out. “What are you doing here?”

She doesn’t sound angry at least, tentative and wary, sure, but not angry.

“Uh,” he says, even knowing that with each second he leaves her question unanswered her frustration will only mount in preparation to spear him. He flounders for a moment, trying to think of an excuse that would explain his presence. Typical. For the first time in his life the only lie he can think of is the truth.

“It’s--I got you a Christmas present,” he says, digging his index finger into the hole in his glove, “From before we broke up. Not exactly something I could return, and I thought you should still have it. So, uh, I was just going to drop it off. You weren’t supposed to see me.” He licks his lips, still chapped from the cold, and dares to meet her eyes and criticism.

Murphy’s new landlord isn’t thrilled that he’s coming to pick up his keys on Christmas Eve. But that’s hardly Murphy’s fault. His new schedule is still kicking his ass. Being the new guy who’s still rotating between twelve hour day and night shifts is a big difference from eight hour construction work days, but he’s handling it, so his landlord can too. It’s not like he’s asking a lot.

His new building has an elevator that’s only ‘a little finicky’ so by Murphy’s standards its high living. He shoves his stuff into it after getting the key and allows himself to slump against the dirty mirror wall. Finding a place is such a hassle, and moving on top of it just sucks. Especially when he has to do it all alone.

He shoulders his way into the new place, boxes precariously balanced in his hands. He sets them down without ceremony, wishing some grain of excitement would rise up in him, but nope.

Under normal circumstances Murphy wouldn’t consider unpacking the worst part of moving. A pain, sure, but it usually meant the hard work was done, and left the anticipation of a new place to grow into and explore. It’s different when all he has to his name is three boxes, groceries, a duffel bag filled with his clothes, and the blow up air mattress Bellamy had lent him. Depressing really. But he has his own place again, so he tries not to let it get to him.

He leaves the single set of dining implements on the kitchen counter, plugs in his old laptop to charge, and throws the sheets onto the bed once it inflates. There’s little to be done after that since he’s not going to put his clothes in the closet right now, other than set up the one lamp he has, and leave his toiletries in the bathroom.

He debates removing the stuff in the third box, not quite remembering what’s in it. As far as he can remember it mostly holds miscellaneous stuff: a throw pillow, a first aid kit, three books—only one of which he’s read— and the contents of his old junk drawer. But there’s also a picture frame at the bottom.

His pulse quickens as he lifts it out of the box, shame and disappointment running in his blood. The boxes had been tucked away for the months he’d been subsiding on Bellamy’s couch and wavering patience, and he had forgotten what he’d shoved into them in the emotional turmoil following the day Emori had walked out.

It’s a two-photo picture frame that he’d bought back in March. The picture on the left is pretty normal, just something he could put into the second slot. It’s from last Christmas, when Harper had insisted that they get one good non-selfie photo of the seven of them. They had ended up taking three, because Bellamy had messed up the timer, but that first picture, snapped a moment too early, is still Murphy’s favorite. It features Bellamy tripping over Murphy’s legs, his arms outstretched in the second before he went careening into Raven and Echo who were squeezed in together on the armchair, both their faces unmasked in shock and amused horror. Monty stands behind them, his wide-eyed face somehow funnier than Bellamy’s; maybe because his arms are full of Harper, who had been perched on the back of the chair and promptly went careening into him at the disturbance. Looking back on it, Murphy can’t remember if he had stuck his leg out and tripped Bellamy on purpose or not. His own smile doesn’t reveal if Bellamy’s fall was premeditated or not, but looking at Emori sitting on the floor next to him, her face caught in a laugh and eyes bright, he thinks maybe they had come up with the idea together. It’s something the Murphy and Emori of a year ago would have done.

His thumb can’t help but trace the curve of her cheek as he relearns the photo, when he realizes he’s doing it his attention shifts to the second photo, forcing himself to hold onto the edges of the frame.

The second photo is the special one. It was complete luck that he had come across it. A local paper he had flipped through out of boredom one day had a featured story about one of the group homes downtown to commemorate its fiftieth anniversary. Pages six and seven were dedicated to photos through the years, and one of them, in the bottom left corner was of Emori and Otan, sitting on the front steps of the home. Neither of them were credited in the picture, and the caption read only ‘Christmastime, 1998’ but of course he recognized Emori, even with all her miniature features not looking directly into the camera and despite the fact she was sitting on her left hand to hide it away.

Emori didn’t have any pictures of herself from when she was younger, and only a few of Otan that she refused to display, and he knew she deserved more than a newspaper clipping, so he had contacted the journalist who had done the article, and through persistence and some lying had gotten a proper printed copy.

The pictures were going to be her Christmas present.

Historically, he’s been a pretty lousy gift-giver, and after putting the frame together back in March he had thought he’d actually succeeded in being a thoughtful boyfriend instead of just getting whatever generic item Emori claimed she needed. Of course the whole ‘thoughtful boyfriend’ thing had gone down the drain back in June. Being jobless hadn’t been good for him, especially when McCreary had gotten off scot free because he was the forman and Murphy got saddled with criminal charges on top of getting sacked even when he wasn’t the one who’d started the fist fight. Still, taking his frustrations and built up turmoil out on Emori was a shit thing to do, in retrospect.

But at the time her promotion and raise (she didn’t even need his income to cover the other half of the rent anymore) just seemed put into place to spite him. Sitting home alone all day had made it worse. Hoping for a call back from just one of the places he’d sent out his resume, only for Emori to come home for half an hour before going out to get drinks he couldn’t afford with their friends who were all too keen on charity.

The insults hadn’t been warranted, and neither had the yelling, or the childish refusing to talk to her. Distancing himself from the group had only compounded it all. And he only really recognized he was self-sabotaging after he had gotten back on his feet and had been living with Bellamy’s near daily lectures, which came after she’d dumped him.

“So you learned a lesson,” Bellamy had said sometime back in September. “You’re an asshole. I could have told you that ages ago, but hey, at least now you can grow from it.”

“Fuck off,” he had said at the time, but even back then he’d been working on it. Meeting Raven’s new boyfriend, going to Echo’s work thing when Bellamy was sick, attending Monty and Harper’s garden party even though he had to wear a button down. Stuff he didn’t want to do, until he had done it and remembered there was a reason he was friends with these people.

He still avoided Emori for a long time though. Raven rolled her eyes everytime he asked if she was going to be around, but as far as he could tell that was pretty normal. Emori is the only ex he has, but he thought keeping his distance was pretty par for the course.

But keeping that up was near impossible, considering all their mutual friends. So he stuck around when she came over for Bellamy’s movie nights and he doesn’t have the groupchat on mute anymore. Sometimes he even replies to stuff. The group acts as a good buffer, making it so that he and Emori only have to have tangential interactions. Of course that doesn’t prevent him from wanting to throw up his heart everytime he sees her. So it’s not like they’re having one-on-one conversations.

But maybe he should give the gift to her. It wasn’t expensive or anything, and it might get them closer to being Just Friends, which he really dreads the idea of, but would still be better than being nothing. Unless she still hates his guts, which is definitely a possibility and a good reason not to give her a Christmas present.

He slips his phone out of his pocket. He could ask Raven, she and Emori talk the most and she’d know where Emori is on the spectrum of liking to hating him. But that’s dumb. Not only is there probably some girl code that would get in the way of her telling him, but asking someone else where you stand with your own ex-girlfriend is too sad of a concept for him to stoop down to.

That’s something he should actually talk to Emori about. Technically there’s nothing stopping him from calling her. He flops into his shitty bed, staring blankly at his phone, as his thumb catches on Emori’s name. He still has her number of course. The green heart sits next to her name in his recent contacts, as if the last time he texted her wasn’t two months ago.

What a stupid message it was too, Emori?, sent at a quarter after midnight on a Tuesday, and he’d actually thought she’d respond. Show’s what loneliness can do to your brain.

Scrolling through their old messages is probably some kind of fucked up anti-therapy, but he does it anyway, maybe because six months later he’s still being sustained by the hollow itch in his chest he feels whenever he thinks about her. It’s motivating at least, better than feeling nothing.

Their texts from when things were going downhill aren’t the worse. Most of them are brief—neither of them are the kind of people to take their frustrations to a third platform. If anything, the worst part is seeing how little they were talking. It’s the ones from when they were happy together that hurt the most.

Making plans for dinner or when they’d go out, coupled with random links to articles or youtube videos that made them think of one another. Stories from work that couldn’t wait till they got home and screenshots from the groupchat they had to dissect one-on-one. The I miss yous and I love yous and Emori’s adorable affinity for the vulcan hand emoji.

He’s lost track of the amount of times he’s clicked the ‘load more messages button’ when the blue light makes his vision start to blur. He blinks hard and scrolls to the bottom again, that same stupid message there for him to reread, the echoing lack of response. There’s no way she’d want him to call her. He drops his phone to his chest and tugs on the ends of his own hair, a frustrated growl escaping from his throat and bouncing off the ceiling of his mostly empty apartment.

He plugs his phone into an outlet on the wall, far enough away that he won’t be tempted to get out of bed and check it. He doesn’t call her.

The good thing about working for emergency services is that people still need to work on Christmas. It’s a good thing for Murphy at least, his usual partner found someone to switch shifts with so she could spend the day with family. The guy working the shift with him today is Jewish, and even he doesn’t seem to want to be there. Not that Murphy doesn’t also want to still be in bed after the shit night of sleep he had, but this at least provides a distraction. He’s sort of hoping someone’s arteries get clogged after one sugar cookie too many just so he can have something to do.

They get three calls out, but nothing overly exciting or worrying. Their shift ends at five, so at least he doesn’t have to deal with all the merry drunks who’ll no doubt crawl out of the woodwork and crash into light poles later that evening. His partner wishes him a Merry Christmas as they part ways, which is nice of him, but only really serves to annoy him.

He gets home and has every intention of reheating leftovers and going to bed at seven, but that stupid picture frame is still sitting on the floor of his remarkably empty apartment, his own smiling face from a year ago mocking him. He can’t look away at it as he slurps wonton soup, for the first time noticing the way one of Emori’s legs overlaps his in the bottom photo. Her smile is so wide.

Fuck it. The guy in that picture would do anything if he thought it had a chance at making Emori happy. There’s no point in him keeping it, and throwing it out would be a waste. She might not want anything to do with him, but if he leaves it at her place, no confrontation, with a note to explain, she can’t be too mad.

The note he writes is short, no frills. He debates signing it for a long time, but she’ll recognize his handwriting regardless so in the end he writes down his full name, not just J. Murphy like how he normally does, and tapes it to the back of the frame.

The walk to Raven and Emori’s apartment isn’t long, but the spitting rain and biting wind don’t make it pleasant. Tears sting his eyes by the time he makes his way inside on the heels of a tenant. He was planning on leaving the present in the mailbox, but it’s far too small. He makes his way upstairs, two at a time because he doesn’t want to linger in the building. Raven’s apartment is the furthest one down the hallway of the third floor. He takes over-large footsteps down the checkered carpet floor, as if that might make the urge to check over his shoulder lessen. He should have succumbed to it.

She doesn’t sound angry at least, tentative and wary, sure, but not angry.

The moment is flat and awkward as she steps forward slowly, unlacing her scarf from around her neck as she approaches. Her steps seem over large too. He hands over the gift when she’s close enough but he’s careful to keep the distance far and impersonal. She takes it in hand, a little frown between her eyebrows, and he kind of wishes he went to the trouble of wrapping it now. He doesn’t want to see her reaction.

“I’ll just...go,” he says, his hands stuffed deep inside his pockets as he steps around her, a good arm’s width between their bodies.

“John?” Emori says, and of course he stops and turns back to look at her. “You didn’t have to-”

“I know,” he interrupts, “But it’s been sitting in a box for the last nine months. You should have it. I promise I’m not trying to make a gesture or anything.”

“Okay,” Emori says lowly, her hands on the edges of the frame clenched as if they’re cramped from the cold. “You still didn’t have to, though. So thank you.”

He offers a quick nod and grimacing smile, having every intention of leaving, but his gaze catches the tears floating on Emori’s waterline and suddenly his feet are stuck in his shoes.

The thing is he knows what to say to comfort her. It sits on his tongue like a pearl, a gift he could give her if he just opened his mouth. The problem is it’s not his place anymore. So he swallows instead.

But Emori has never been one to sit with her emotions, and it’s no surprise that a few blinks later her eyes are clear. Maybe even brighter.

“Have you eaten?” Emori asks, quickly enough to confuse him. “Monty doesn’t know how to cook for only six apparently. I have leftovers. You can come in if you want.”

There are so many reasons to say no. He has eaten. She’s his ex-girlfriend. It’s Christmas and he just worked a twelve hour shift.

“If you’re sure,” he says instead, and when she gives a nod he follows her inside.

“Uh, where’s Raven?” he asks, as they move to the kitchen. The apartment looks the same as the last time he was here, as if Emori hasn’t added any of herself to the place.

“She’s meeting Shaw’s family,” Emori answers, turning on the stovetop, “Apparently they have a Christmas tradition of driving around after dinner to look at the lights, so she got invited to tag along.”

“Oh,” he says, watching her dish out some of Monty’s famous green bean casserole and a bit of ham from his place on the far wall, “I didn’t realize they were that serious.”

“Yeah,” Emori says, “She really likes him.”

He nods, tugging on the loose thread in his glove until it’s close enough to unraveling that he has to stuff them in his pockets if he wants to have both gloves to wear on the walk home. There’s a long silence as Emori stands over the stove with more dillegance than is really required, and as he hates himself for being fixated on her small movements. Her eyes flick back to him too many times to count, but she tears her gaze away countless times too. Her expression is held tight.

She pours herself a glass of water, and grabs a plate and fork for him. She drinks as he eats, and it’s clear both of them are grateful for the occupation of their hands and mouths. If he had more courage he’d ask her why she invited him in. As it is he’s grateful, despite the pressure on his chest and the awkward eye contact.

“I’ll have to tell Monty he’s triumphed again,” he says, taking his last bite. He makes a big show about scraping the plate with the side of the fork, hating himself for not wanting to leave yet.

Maybe Emori knows that because the next thing she says is, “We missed you at dinner.”

“I was working,” he answers automatically, but when he thinks about what she said it’s like his heart is shaking in his chest.

“I know,” Emori says, “Bellamy said...How do you like it? Being an EMT?”

“Yeah, it’s good,” he says, “The courses were cool, hands on, and Abby wrote me a letter of rec, so they overlooked the charges...I like it a lot. It’s exciting, different all the time. I get to drive an ambulance. There are sirens. Blood and guts.”

“Sounds good for you,” Emori says, maybe at the joke, maybe because she’s happy for him. “What’s your grossest story?”

And her smile is still there so of course he has to explain the guy who had somehow managed to get his thigh impaled by his own bike. Emori scrunches her nose and laughs at all the appropriate places, and he hadn’t noticed them drifting towards one another until he almost hit her with his fork while miming the angle of the bike seat.

“Sorry,” he says, moving around her to get to the sink, “I’ll just wash up and get out of your hair.”

“John, you don’t have to…”

“Nah, I ate your lunch for Monday, pretty sure I’m an asshole if I make you do dishes on Christmas.”

“I already did dishes at Monty and Harper’s,” she points out, but she lets him put soap in the ratty sponge and clean the plate. And maybe he scrubs for longer than he needs too, and rinses it twice, and towel dries it too when the rack is right there. It’s already been established that he’s pathetic, doing an overly thorough job cleaning dishes really isn’t the worst thing he’s done.

“Sparkling,” he says, presenting it to her to put away. She smiles, and for a moment it isn’t awkward, they’ve done dishes together a thousand times. Of course, just thinking about how it isn’t awkward makes that squirming feeling in his chest reappear. He coughs. “Well, I’ll get going then,” he starts, “Merry Christmas.”

“Wait,” Emori says, reaching out to grab his wrist. He doesn’t look down to where she’s touching him because he knows if he does she’ll let go. She licks her lips, which she really shouldn’t do when they’re standing this close together. “Could you hang up the picture frame for me?”

He nods without thinking, considering for the first time that maybe she doesn’t want him to leave either. Sure, he worked in construction for nearly five years, but she’s a mechanic. She shouldn’t have any trouble putting a nail in her wall “Where do you want it?”

She holds the frame crooked in her arm and leads the way out of the kitchen, through the living room, and into her bedroom. He stops in the doorway.

Emori has always been something of a mess, perfectly okay with living in her own clutter. They had spent an entire afternoon bickering about her actually hanging her clothes up in the closet once, but those habits are incomparable to this situation; her room now is something out of a reality tv show. Cardboard boxes are stacked up on one another in almost all the available floor space. There are three side tables next to Emori’s bed, a rolled up rug leaning against the dresser which has four lamps sitting on it.

That carpet used to lay in their living room. There’s probably still a stain from when he’d spilled chili on it after Emori had him laughing too hard. Those lamps used to be the only light they had in their bedroom because the one window was snug against a brick wall an alley over. He still remembers all the slightly different clicks they’d make as he turned them off in preparation for bed.

“Um,” he says, stuck in the threshold. Emori shimies her way through the disorder to hold the picture up to the wall.

“Here?” she asks. It’s the left wall. She always slept on the left side. In that spot the frame will be the first thing she’ll see most mornings. He blinks hard several times.

“Sure,” he says, “You have a hammer and nail? I’ll probably need a measuring tape too.”

“Of course,” Emori says, “One sec.” She roots through some of the boxes until she pulls out a toolbox. His toolbox. The one filled with odds and ends he’d stolen from work over a handful of months. He hasn’t thought about it in the longest time. She hands it over and he takes out what he’ll need, sticking a nail between his lips. Finding a stud isn’t a problem, and too quickly the frame hangs on the wall.

“That straight?” he asks, taking a step back.

“I don’t really care about it being straight,” Emori says and his eyes can’t help but fall to the disarray about the room as he nods in agreement.

“I know it’s a mess,” she says, but not like she’s offended. “I haven’t gotten around to unpacking yet. Didn’t seem worth it when half this stuff is yours.”

That doesn’t make any sense. It’s been months, and it’s not like he’s asked her for any of his old shit, and she hadn’t tried to pawn it off on him either. Keeping it that long without using it seems pointless. Emori knows that, no doubt, judging by the way she sinks onto her bed, looking at the frame. It’s the only thing hanging on any of her walls, he notices.

“We could sort through it,” she says. “If you want.”

“Emori.” He shakes his head, he’s barely stopped looking at her this whole time, but he has to now. “I don’t really want to be in your bedroom right now.”

That sits between them, like a rotting apple no one wants to throw out of the bowl. So far they’ve managed to avoid talking about them, because this is the first time they’ve spent any lengthy amount of time one-on-one since they broke up. But now it sits out there to be prodded and examined.

“Oh,” she says, and she sounds hurt. He grimaces, and that gray, niggling part of him that hates himself bruises even more. He forces himself to explain.

“I can’t be just friends with you right now, okay? I’m still in love with you, and it doesn’t…” he drifts off upon noticing the pink in Emori’s cheeks, the strain in her throat. Shit. He wasn’t supposed to say that, was he? “Sorry. I’ll...I’ll leave.”

Except that maneuvering out of the room in his semi-frantic state makes him knock over one of the boxes, it’s contents spilling onto the floor. Emori springs to her feet, and he scrambles down, replacing the items while he tries to avoid even the sight of her shoes. His heartbeat skitters in his chest regardless.

“John, John, it’s fine,” Emori says, her hands reaching out and lying on the back of his, and of course that catches him, the only option to look into her eyes. She has such an expressive face, but he’s not used to seeing it any more. Her jaw is held solid, maybe so it won’t tremble, and her eyes are wide. “I’m sorry,” she says, and his brow twitches in confusion.

“Why are you apologizing? I’m the one who was such a jackass. I shouldn’t have treated you like that,” he says, and then, because he’s just realized he’s never said it, “I’m sorry about that. Really.”

Emori blinks, twice, and know that he thinks about it, he might have blurted that out of left field, from her perspective. Keeping things inside the box has never been a specialty of his apparently. Part of the reason he needs to leave, and he should, but Emori had caught him in her net a long time ago.

“I accept your apology.”

He feels lighter, a weight on his chest he hadn’t know was there is gone. Emori doesn’t hate him.

“Thanks,” he says, because it seems the only reasonable thing to say. He straightens, the mess on her floor mostly cleaned up.

“I was going to say I miss you.” He must look as confused as he feels because Emori repeats herself. “I was going to say I miss you, that’s why I wanted to…” she throws her arm in a gesture, towards her apartment at large or these weird and precious collection of moments they’ve been having. “I’m sorry that’s not what you wanted. It’s just…” she pauses, looks him straight in the eye, and then says with conviction, “I still love you too.”

He grinds his teeth, the taste between them bitter and sweet and dissolving on his tongue. But then he shakes his head a little, because he knows by now that it’s not enough, that he doesn’t deserve it.

“What?” Emori asks, searching, prodding, something watery in her voice.

“I don’t know? What am I supposed to say to that?” He asks, and in his head he sounds more outraged, more overwhelmed. In reality, the words come out soft. And scared.

Emori swallows something down. “I don’t know. Don’t you want to try again?”

There it is. He wants to throw up his heart. “You do?” he manages to choke out. He’s only just learned that she doesn’t still hate him. It seems too far a jump.

Her jaw stutters before it snaps shut, and he was right, it was too far a jump. She doesn’t know how to handle this any more than he does. So where does that leave them?

“Yes, John, I do,” she says, surprising him. “I didn’t really think you’d get back here again. I thought you’d keep falling apart.” She’s sounds ashamed about not having faith in him, but he can’t really be offended when he hadn’t had any in himself either. “But you still care about your future, and our friends.” She bites her lip, turning a bright pink. She looks at the picture frame. “You still care about me.”

He never stopped, but it’s not like his past behavior is very reflective of that. And now who he is and who he was a few months ago is blended together in his head. Just a bunch of mush Emori doesn’t deserve.

“It’s just a Christmas present,” he says, an ache in his throat coming up with the words, and Emori looks at him with disbelief.

“John, Christmas didn’t mean anything to me until I met you! God, for me and Otan, Christmas was just the day where we even more unloved. But that…” She points at picture frame hanging on the wall, that first picture of all of them, the one he had printed out as an afterthought, had taken for granted. “You, with all of them, made it actually mean something.”

It takes a lot for Emori to cry. As a teenager she had thought it made her weak and had beaten it out of herself. But there’s that shine to her eyes again, the same as when she had first seen it, and a wet break in her voice.

“It’s my favorite Christmas present,” she says. “And if you got it back in March, I think it’s important to you too.”

Damn it. She knows him too well.

“Of course it means something to me,” he forces himself to say, some previously unknown courage swelling in him. “Because you do. You mean...so much to me.”

“Then let’s try again,” she says, insistence pushing at the end of each word. And he finds himself nodding, because that’s what he wants, even if there’s that quibbling part of him still thinks she deserves better; but if he was meant to learn anything from all of this it was probably that Emori gets to decide what she deserves.

Emori smiles, dazzling, like she always is, and the doubts rush from his mind.

“You’re coming to Echo’s New Year’s party, right?” He asks, and Emori nods, smile widening.

“Was she nagging you about it too?”

“Oh, yeah,” he confirms, the corners of his mouth beginning to ache, but in a pleasant way he has no intention of stopping. “I didn’t mind too much, though. I’ve got this feeling it’ll be a good year.”

#memori #memori fic #the 100 #john murphy #emori kom spacekru #a writing tag #please tell me if this feels ooc #idk whether to put it on ao3 or not #i just loved the idea and it got #out of control #im breaking my own rule with putting something so long on here but w/e

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