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thecollegefootballguy · 3 years ago

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The Real 2020 Season: Week 12

Welcome back to The Real 2020 Season! We’re imagining how things would have gone in the 2020 football season if COVID hadn’t ruined everything.

Check out the previous weeks here if you’d like a bit of context: Week 0, Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Week 10, Week 11

The Rankings

Week 12 College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Alabama 10-0 (6-0) 2. Notre Dame 10-0 3. Texas A&M 10-0 (6-0) 4. Florida 9-1 (7-1) 5. Oregon 9-1 (6-1) 6. Ohio State 9-1 (7-0) 7. Clemson 9-1 (7-0) 8. Georgia 8-2 (5-2) 9. Indiana 9-1 (6-1) 10. Iowa State 8-2 (6-1) 11. Cincinnati 10-0 (6-0) 12. Oklahoma 8-2 (5-2) 13. Oklahoma State 8-2 (5-2) 14. Texas 8-2 (5-2) 15. Auburn 8-2 (4-2) 16. Northwestern 8-2 (5-2) 17. Iowa 8-2 (5-2) 18. Tulsa 8-2 (5-1) 19. LSU 7-3 (4-2) 20. UCF 8-2 (4-2) 21. Coastal Carolina 10-0 (6-0) 22. Liberty 10-0 23. Wisconsin 7-3 (5-2) 24. USC 7-3 (6-2) 25. North Carolina 7-3 (5-1)

The Narrative

Last week, the Big 12 had their own week of agony the same way that the Big Ten did in the first two weeks of the season. Removing Texas and Oklahoma from the Playoff picture effectively closes the book on the conference for the season. The Big Ten *might* still get #6 Ohio State into the Playoff but things are complicated. The SEC will have at least one bid, potentially two depending on how things shake out between #1 Alabama, #3 Texas A&M, and #4 Florida. #2 Notre Dame has probably punched their ticket already. Fighting with OSU is #5 Oregon and #7 Clemson, the other remaining serious contenders.

The Games

It’s the second to last week of the regular season so you know there are some big games. Let’s see how things shook out.

Winning teams are highlighted in bold.

#11 Cincinnati at #20 UCF East Carolina at Temple Houston at SMU UT Martin at Memphis Navy at South Florida Tulane at #18 Tulsa #25 North Carolina at Boston College #7 Clemson at Wake Forest Florida State at Syracuse Louisville at #2 Notre Dame #22 Liberty at NC State Virginia Tech at Duke Miami FL at Georgia Tech Pittsburgh at Virginia Baylor at West Virginia #10 Iowa State at #14 Texas Kansas at #12 Oklahoma #13 Oklahoma State at Kansas State Texas Tech at TCU #9 Indiana at Michigan Maryland at Penn State Rutgers at Michigan State #6 Ohio State at Illinois #17 Iowa at Purdue #16 Northwestern at Minnesota Nebraska at #23 Wisconsin Charlotte at Marshall Old Dominion at Florida Atlantic FIU at Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee at Connecticut Louisiana Tech at Vanderbilt Rice at North Texas UTSA at Southern Miss UAB at UTEP Western Michigan at Akron Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan Buffalo at Ohio Kent State at Miami OH Ball State at Central Michigan Toledo at Northern Illinois New Mexico at Air Force Boise State at Wyoming Utah State at Colorado State San Diego State at Fresno State Hawaii at San Jose State Stanford at California #5 Oregon at Washington State Arizona at Oregon State Colorado at Washington Utah at Arizona State #24 USC at UCLA New Mexico State at #4 Florida #8 Georgia at Kentucky Louisiana at Missouri Wofford at South Carolina Troy at Tennessee #3 Texas A&M at #1 Alabama Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas #19 LSU at #15 Auburn Alabama A&M at Mississippi State Georgia Southern at Ole Miss Appalachian State at #21 Coastal Carolina Georgia State at South Alabama Arkansas State at Texas State Army at Massachusetts North Alabama at BYU

The SEC West was finally decided in the titanic clash between #1 Alabama and #3 Texas A&M. At least, that’s what was supposed to happen. Instead the Crimson Tide ran the Aggies out the building. It was a crushing defeat by four touchdowns, even calling into question A&M’s claim to an at-large bid in the Playoff. Time will tell if Texas A&M can stake that claim, but they’ve dug themselves in a hole with this defeat. #1 Alabama now plays #4 Florida in the SEC title game to decide the SEC Champion’s virtual auto-bid in the Playoff. The field wasn’t complicated much otherwise. #2 Notre Dame took care of business against Louisville and #5 Oregon stomped on Washington State. The Ducks now likely take up the 4th spot as A&M will likely be busted down a few pegs.

#6 Ohio State rolled Illinois to keep their outside bid for the Playoff alive. #7 Clemson won as well, overwhelming Wake Forest in Winston-Salem. #25 North Carolina kept their push on the ACC Coastal with a road win over Boston College. While the Big Ten East conformed to the Vegas odds, the Big Ten West’s leading teams suffered crippling losses as #16 Northwestern and #17 Iowa lost to supposedly weaker division foes. #10 Iowa State overcame #14 Texas in Austin to keep their advantage in the Big 12. The Cyclones are only a few wins away from their first conference title in over 100 years. In the SEC, #15 Auburn stomped on #19 LSU, leading some to reevaluate just how good the defending champions really are. Especially as people start reevaluating Texas.

#11 Cincinnati edged out #20 UCF to further solidify their grip on the G5′s NY6 spot. #21 Coastal Carolina blew past usual division champion Appalachian State. The Chanticleers are having a hell of a season but it may not even amount to a major bowl if the Bearcats go undefeated.

The Standings

The Big Picture

We’re rapidly approaching the end of the division and conference races. #1 Alabama will meet #4 Florida in the SEC Championship Game, likely deciding the first seed in the Playoff. #2 Notre Dame has their ticket punched assuming they can beat #24 USC in the season finale, and even if they somehow don’t win they’ll still be in the conversation as a 1-loss team. #5 Oregon is eagerly eyeing the standings, hoping to have leapt #3 Texas A&M following the Aggies’ bad loss. #6 Ohio State and #7 Clemson are also happy to be moving up the pecking order with anxious glances at the 4th seed following the SEC Championship Game.

#14 Texas is now out of the running for the Big 12 Championship Game. #10 Iowa State will face either #12 Oklahoma or #13 Oklahoma State in two weeks. #24 USC has the PAC-12 South sewn up. The Trojans will meet the Ducks in Santa Clara in two weeks with revenge on their minds. With both #16 Northwestern and #17 Iowa losing, #23 Wisconsin has taken the lead in the Big Ten West race for the first time since losing to Indiana in Week 1. The Badgers will have to beat the Hawkeyes next week to clinch the division. #25 North Carolina remains in control of the ACC Coastal. The Tar Heels will have to beat their similarly surging rivals NC State in order to face #7 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

The G5 race goes through #11 Cincinnati. The Bearcats once again clung on to their perfect season after scraping by #20 UCF. Of course, Cincinnati will have to face one of their conference rivals once more in the American CG. The rest of the G5 really doesn’t have a shot to profit off the chaos except for #21 Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers may sneak in if the Bearcats are upset by a 3 loss team, but even if it’s 2 loss Tulsa I have a hard time imagining that they’ll give the NY6 spot to CCU.

The New Rankings

Week 13 College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Alabama 11-0 (7-0) 2. Notre Dame 11-0 3. Florida 10-1 (7-1) 4. Oregon 10-1 (7-1) 5. Ohio State 10-1 (8-0) 6. Clemson 10-1 (8-0) 7. Texas A&M 10-1 (6-1) 8. Iowa State 9-2 (7-1) 9. Georgia 9-2 (6-2) 10. Cincinnati 11-0 (7-0) 11. Indiana 10-1 (7-1) 12. Oklahoma 9-2 (6-2) 13. Oklahoma State 9-2 (6-2) 14. Auburn 9-2 (5-2) 15. USC 8-3 (7-2) 16. Wisconsin 8-3 (6-2) 17. Tulsa 9-2 (6-1) 18. Stanford 8-3 (7-2) 19. Texas 8-3 (5-3) 20. Coastal Carolina 11-0 (7-0) 21. Arizona State 8-3 (5-3) 22. Northwestern 8-3 (5-3) 23. North Carolina 8-3 (6-1) 24. BYU 9-2 25. Iowa 8-3 (5-3)

#4 Oregon is on the cusp on returning to the Playoff for the first time since 2014. If the Ducks can finish strong it’ll be the PAC-12′s first bid since 2016. #5 Ohio State is hoping that #1 Alabama beats #3 Florida badly enough for the Buckeyes to leap over them. #6 Clemson is likely on the outside looking in, they’ll have to hope for a bit more chaos to make the Playoff.

Next up is rivalry week! All of the division races culminate here!

#college football #Alabama Crimson Tide #Notre Dame Fighting Irish #Florida Gators #Oregon Ducks #Ohio State Buckeyes #Clemson Tigers #Texas A&M Aggies #Iowa State Cyclones #Georgia Bulldogs #Cincinnati Bearcats #NC State Wolfpack #Purdue Boilermakers #Minnesota Golden Gophers #Auburn Tigers

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theliberaltony · 5 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

In trying to build a forecast model of the Democratic primaries, we literally had to think about the entire process from start (Iowa) to finish (the Virgin Islands on June 6). Actually, we had to do more than that. Since the nomination process is sequential — states vote one at a time rather than all at once — we had to determine, empirically, how much the results of one state can affect the rest.

The answer in the case of Iowa is that it matters a lot. Despite its demographic non-representativeness, and the quirks of the caucuses process, the amount of media coverage the state gets makes it far more valuable a prize than you’d assume from the fact that it only accounts for 41 of the Democrats’ 3,990 pledged delegates.

More specifically, we estimate — based on testing how much the results in various states have historically changed the candidates’ position in national polls — that Iowa was the second most-important date on the calendar this year, trailing only Super Tuesday. It was worth the equivalent of almost 800 delegates, about 20 times its actual number.

Which states will produce the biggest bounces?

Expected bounce magnitude according to FiveThirtyEight’s primary model

Relative bounce magnitude Date States Based on delegates Early state bonus Combined Feb. 3 Iowa +3 +20 +23 Feb. 11 New Hampshire +2 +10 +12 Feb. 22 Nevada +3 +5 +8 Feb. 29 South Carolina +3 +5 +8 Mar. 3 Colorado, Alabama, Utah, Oklahoma, Vermont, Texas, Tennessee, Maine, Virginia, North Carolina, California, American Samoa, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Arkansas +30 +30 Mar. 10 Mississippi, Michigan, North Dakota, Washington, Missouri, Idaho, Democrats Abroad +12 +12 Mar. 14 Northern Marianas +1 +1 Mar. 17 Ohio, Arizona, Florida, Illinois +16 +16 Mar. 24 Georgia +5 +5 Mar. 29 Puerto Rico +3 +3 Apr. 4 Alaska, Hawaii, Wyoming, Louisiana +5 +5 Apr. 7 Wisconsin +4 +4 Apr. 28 Rhode Island, New York, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Pennsylvania +18 +18 May 2 Guam, Kansas +3 +3 May 5 Indiana +4 +4 May 12 Nebraska, West Virginia +3 +3 May 19 Kentucky, Oregon +5 +5 June 2 New Mexico, New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana, District of Columbia +8 +8 June 6 Virgin Islands +1 +1

Everything was a little weird in Iowa this year, however. And there were already some signs that the Iowa bounce — which essentially results from all the favorable media coverage that winning candidates get — might be smaller than normal. Iowa was bracketed by an extremely busy news calendar: President Trump’s impeachment trial both before and after the caucuses, the Super Bowl on Sunday, the State of the Union address on Tuesday. There was not the usual climactic uptick in media coverage around Iowa. From initial indications — to the extent any information at all is reliable at this point — Democratic turnout there wound up being fairly low.

But we weren’t prepared for what actually happened, which is that — as I’m writing this at 3:15 a.m. on Tuesday morning — the Iowa Democratic Party literally hasn’t released any results from its caucuses. I’m not going to predict what those numbers will eventually be, although early indications are that Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and perhaps Elizabeth Warren had good results. The point is that the lead story around the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses is now — and will forever be — the colossal shitshow around the failure to release results in a timely fashion.

Maybe there will eventually be a decent-sized Iowa bounce despite all of this. But there’s a good chance that the candidates who did well in Iowa get screwed, and the candidates who did poorly there get a mulligan. To repeat: There’s very little importance in a mathematical sense to who wins 41 delegates. Iowa is all about the media narrative it produces and all about momentum, and that momentum, whoever wins, is likely to have been blunted.

Who might this help? Let’s pretend for a moment we don’t have any hints about how the results might have turned out. In fact, let’s pretend that Iowa didn’t happen at all. I re-ran our forecast model as though the Iowa caucuses were canceled.1 Here’s how that changed each candidate’s chances of getting a delegate majority:

How Iowa’s presence affected Democrats’ odds

Chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates per FiveThirtyEight forecast model on Feb. 3 (pre-Iowa), compared with a version of the model that skips the Iowa caucuses

Candidate As of our final PRE-IOWA SIMULATIONS ON Monday night In A HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATION WHERE Iowa didn’t exist Biden 43% 50% Sanders 31 24 Warren 5 5 Buttigieg 4 <1 Other <1 <1 No one 17 20

The presence of Iowa was helpful to Bernie Sanders, whose chances of winning a national delegate majority would have been 24 percent without Iowa — as compared to the 31 percent chance that he had with Iowa, as of Monday afternoon. Iowa was hurtful to Joe Biden, however, whose chances of a delegate majority would have been 50 percent without it, rather than 43 percent with it.

And Iowa was extremely helpful to Buttigieg, whose chances of winning the delegate majority were fairly low even with Iowa — keep in mind that he had slipped to third in polls of Iowa and fifth in national polls — but would have been virtually nonexistent (less than one percent) without it.

By giving the winning candidates a boost, the presence of Iowa also reduced the chance of an unstructured race and a potential brokered convention. The chance of there being no delegate majority was 17 percent without Iowa, but would have been 20 percent with it.

Granted, none of those changes — say, 24 percent versus 31 percent — are necessarily that large. But that’s partly because, as of Monday afternoon, four or five candidates appeared to have a shot at winning Iowa. For the candidate who actually won Iowa, it would have been a much bigger deal. We estimate that Sanders’s chances of a majority would have shot up to from 31 percent to 58 percent with an Iowa win, Warren’s from 5 percent to 32 percent, and Buttigieg’s from 4 percent to 22 percent.

And in some ways that still discounts Iowa’s impact, because several of the campaigns — for better or worse — built their entire strategy around the state. Would Buttigieg have been a major player in the race without Iowa? Considering his lack of support among black voters, probably not. Would candidates such as Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Julian Castro have dropped out so soon? That’s a harder call, since Harris, Booker and Castro weren’t polling particularly well anywhere. But the Democratic field might have remained a little more diverse.

So we’ve arrived at a point of some ambivalence. On the one hand, candidates such as Buttigieg, who seemingly did well there, are liable to be injured by the muddled storylines in Iowa following the results-reporting disaster on Monday night. On the other hand, it’s not clear why Iowa was afforded so much importance in the first place, and Buttigieg possibly owed his entire presence in the campaign to this quirk in the nomination process. Nonetheless, these were the rules of the game, as every candidate understood them. So if Iowa turns out not to matter very much because of the results-reporting snafu, they have every right to be upset.

To be even more blunt: the Iowa Democratic Party’s colossal screw-up in reporting results will potentially have direct effects on the outcome of the nomination process. The failure to report results will almost certainly help Biden, assuming that indications that he performed poorly in Iowa are correct, as they won’t get nearly as much media coverage. And they’ll hurt whichever candidate wins the state — mostly likely Sanders or Buttigieg. (Although if Sanders winds up finishing in second place or lower, he also might not mind a reduction in the importance of Iowa, especially with one of his best states, New Hampshire, coming up next.)

Furthermore, Iowa is typically a state that winnows the field. But with every candidate either having performed well there, potentially having an excuse for a disappointing finish there, or somewhere in between, it might not do that. Delaying the winnowing process would tangibly increase the chance of a contested convention.

It’s not a good situation for the Democratic Party. And it’s already too late for the damage to be entirely undone, even if Iowa eventually gets its act together.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nate Silver

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babiesjeep44-blog · 5 years ago

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2019 NFL Draft: Ranking top 10 prospects at each position

The 2019 NFL Draft is just around the corner, and the buildup among Chicago Bears fans has been relatively lackluster.

Granted, this was to be expected, as the team does not have a pick within the first 85 selections of the draft. Without the chance to grab some of the top talents in the class, interest has naturally dwindled a bit. However, this year’s class is still loaded with potential starters at several positions, and with the Bears’ recent success in later rounds, chances are they’ll be able to find a few diamonds in the rough.

Chicago has five selections, with two in the seventh round and none in the first, second or sixth rounds. Their roster is one of the most complete in the league, so there are very few glaring holes they need to fill. This will allow them to stock up on talent that contribute down the line when they will inevitably have to let a few lesser starters walk in free agency to retain their core players.

Because I’m a loser without a life, I have been breaking down film of this year’s class since late April—two days after the 2018 draft ended, in fact. My board has predictably changed a lot since the beginning of my process, but it is now almost done solidifying and taking shape as we get closer to the draft. I will give a glimpse of my overall rankings once I put the finishing touches on a few late-round targets, but my top 10 at each position is essentially set in stone at this point.

With that in mind, these are my top 10 positional rankings for this year’s draft.

Quarterbacks

1. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma

2. Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State

3. Drew Lock, Missouri

4. Tyree Jackson, Buffalo

5. Daniel Jones, Duke

6. Ryan Finley, North Carolina State

7. Will Grier, West Virginia

8. Brett Rypien, Boise State

9. Easton Stick, North Dakota State

10. Gardner Minshew II, Washington State

The Bears won’t be in the market for a quarterback this year, which is a good thing, since this year’s class is generally uninspiring. I don’t have a first-round grade on any quarterback in this group, but Kyler Murray does carry a solid second-round grade. I’m generally higher on Tyree Jackson than most, and I do realize that he’s a work in progress whose mechanics and release quickness need some work. With his size, arm strength and surprising athleticism, his ceiling is higher than any other signal-caller in this class.

Running backs

1. Josh Jacobs, Alabama

2. David Montgomery, Iowa State

3. Miles Sanders, Penn State

4. Damien Harris, Alabama

5. Darrell Henderson, Memphis

6. Devin Singletary, Florida Atlantic

7. Bruce Anderson, North Dakota State

8. Devine Ozigbo, Nebraska

9. Justice Hill, Oklahoma State

10. Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M

The 2019 draft doesn’t have a running back of the caliber of a Saquon Barkley or an Ezekiel Elliott, but it does have dozens of players who have the potential to step in and be reliable contributors. Of these prospects, Miles Sanders is my personal top choice for the Bears, but he will not be available for their third-round pick unless they trade up. Keep an eye on Trayveon Williams, a well-rounded runner with receiving value whom the Bears have met with at the Combine, his Pro Day and a private meeting.

Wide receivers

1. D.K. Metcalf, Ole Miss

2. N’Keal Harry, Arizona State

3. Hakeem Butler, Iowa State

4. Kelvin Harmon, North Carolina State

5. Marquise Brown, Oklahoma

6. A.J. Brown, Ole Miss

7. Riley Ridley, Georgia

8. Deebo Samuel, South Carolina

9. Parris Campbell, Ohio State

10. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Stanford

Last year’s class boasted a lot of talented wide receivers, but this year’s group may be even better. D.K. Metcalf and N’Keal Harry both carry first-round grades for me, while Hakeem Butler brings up a legitimate argument for having the highest ceiling in the class. There are still several talented weapons who didn’t crack the list, and I could see more than 20 prospects realistically going within the first five rounds. I expect all of these receivers to be off the board by the time the Bears pick, even though it’s highly unlikely they would pick a wide receiver in the third round, anyway.

Tight ends

1. T.J. Hockenson, Iowa

2. Noah Fant, Iowa

3. Kahale Warring, San Diego State

4. Irv Smith Jr., Alabama

5. Jace Sternberger, Texas A&M

6. Josh Oliver, San Jose State

7. Dawson Knox, Ole Miss

8. Foster Moreau, LSU

9. Dax Raymond, Utah State

10. Alize Mack, Notre Dame

The dynamic Hawkeye duo of T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant predictably tops this list, and both of them are first-round talents with Pro Bowl ceilings. I’m admittedly not as high on the depth of this class as most draftniks, but there are a handful of players in these rankings with starting potential. The big surprise in these rankings is my placing Kahale Warring over Irv Smith Jr., the latter of whom having been deemed a potential first-round riser. While Warring is raw, he has the size, athleticism and ball skills of an elite tight end prospect, and his upside is arguably up there with the likes of Hockenson and Fant.

Offensive tackles

1. Jonah Williams, Alabama

2. Jawaan Taylor, Florida

3. Greg Little, Ole Miss

4. Andre Dillard, Washington State

5. Yodny Cajuste, West Virginia

6. Michael Deiter, Wisconsin

7. Isaiah Prince, Ohio State

8. Tytus Howard, Alabama State

9. Kaleb McGary, Washington

10. David Edwards, Wisconsin

Some consider Jonah Williams to be a guard at the next level, which is a move I could realistically see him making. However, I see him as a tackle, and the best one in the class, at that. Jawaan Taylor and Andre Dillard will likely be selected in the first round, and though I don’t necessarily agree with either being picked that high, the upside in the two is palpable. Keep an eye out for Tytus Howard, as he’s an athletic and nimble small-school lineman who could be a steal early on Day 3. The Bears don’t really need an offensive tackle this year, but they could consider adding a swing tackle or a potential replacement for Bobby Massie in a few years if the value is right.

Interior offensive linemen

1. Cody Ford, Oklahoma

2. Dalton Risner, Kansas State

3. Garrett Bradbury, North Carolina State

4. Connor McGovern, Penn State

5. Ben Powers, Oklahoma

6. Erik McCoy, Texas A&M

7. Chris Lindstrom, Boston College

8. Ross Pierschbacher, Alabama

9. Dru Samia, Oklahoma

10. Michael Jordan, Ohio State

The Bears are essentially set along the offensive line for this year, unless they try to pick Kyle Long’s heir apparent in this year’s class, which is unlikely. Nevertheless, this year’s interior offensive line class is a good one, headlined by my top three players, all of whom I would pound the table for in the first round if I were running an offensive line-needy team. Part of me wants the Bears to draft Michael Jordan just for the jokes.

Defensive linemen

1. Quinnen Williams, Alabama

2. Ed Oliver, Houston

3. Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame

4. Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi State

5. Christian Wilkins, Clemson

6. Charles Omenihu, Texas

7. Dexter Lawrence, Clemson

8. Dre’Mont Jones, Ohio State

9. Khalen Saunders, Western Illinois

10. Zach Allen, Boston College

Boy oh boy, does this class have some defensive line talent or what? Quinnen Williams is No. 2 overall on my board, Ed Oliver is a rare athlete for his position, and the likes of Jerry Tillery and Jeffery Simmons are both intriguing prospects with pass-rushing upside. I’m very high on Khalen Saunders, a stout and athletic lineman with quick hands who terrorized FCS offensive lines. Chicago has a reliable trio at defensive line with Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman and Bilal Nichols, so don’t expect them to target a player at the position until very late in the draft, if at all.

Edge rushers

1. Nick Bosa, Ohio State

2. Josh Allen, Kentucky

3. Clelin Ferrell, Clemson

4. Rashan Gary, Michigan

5. Montez Sweat, Mississippi State

6. Brian Burns, Florida State

7. Oshane Ximines, Old Dominion

8. Chase Winovich, Michigan

9. Jachai Polite, Florida

10. Christian Miller, Alabama

Edge rushers are the most important players on the defensive side of the ball, which makes NFL teams especially lucky that this year’s draft is loaded at the position. Nick Bosa is my top overall prospect, as his blend of size, strength, athleticism and hand usage makes him a possible perennial Pro Bowl talent. Josh Allen is also in my top five, while the rest of my top six will likely all see themselves selected in the first round. The true wild card of the bunch is Jachai Polite, a first-round talent with poor testing numbers, weight fluctuation concerns and horrible Combine interviews. With Aaron Lynch in the fold again, the Bears might not draft an edge rusher in the third round, but adding some form of depth is likely.

Linebackers

1. Devin White, LSU

2. Mack Wilson, Alabama

3. Devin Bush, Michigan

4. Cameron Smith, USC

5. Joe Giles-Harris, Duke

6. Terrill Hanks, New Mexico State

7. Te’Von Coney, Notre Dame

8. Blake Cashman, Minnesota

9. Vosean Joseph, Florida

10. T.J. Edwards, Wisconsin

The Bears are essentially set at inside linebacker with Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan, and after drafting Joel Iyiegbuniwe in the fourth round of last year’s draft, they don’t appear to be in the market for one this year. That’s a relief, as this year’s class is pretty thin at the position. Devin White is on a similar tier as Smith as a prospect, as his athleticism and reliability as a tackler could see him selected in the top 10. Mack Wilson and Devin Bush could also be selected within the first two rounds, but the talent drops off after those three. Blake Cashman is an intriguing sleeper who tested well at the Combine, though.

Safeties

1. Nasir Adderley, Delaware

2. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida

3. Amani Hooker, Iowa

4. Juan Thornhill, Virginia

5. Darnell Savage Jr., Maryland

6. Taylor Rapp, Washington

7. Jaquan Johnson, Miami (FL)

8. Deionte Thompson, Alabama

9. Marvell Tell III, USC

10. Johnathan Abram, Mississippi State

The Bears replaced Adrian Amos with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in free agency, and while Clinton-Dix could be a bounce-back candidate with the help of an elite Chicago defense, he’s still only on a one-year deal. Assuming the plan is for him to cash in on a long-term deal elsewhere next offseason, the Bears could look to draft a safety early this year. Of this bunch, my personal favorite is Amani Hooker. He’s an instinctive safety who can jump routes, read quarterbacks and consistently get to the right place to tackle ball carriers. Darnell Savage Jr. is an athletic and versatile safety who would fit their system well, while the likes of Taylor Rapp, Jaquan Johnson and Johnathan Abram fit the strong safety mold.

Cornerbacks

1. Greedy Williams, LSU

2. Byron Murphy, Washington

3. Julian Love, Notre Dame

4. DeAndre Baker, Georgia

5. Amani Oruwariye, Penn State

6. Trayvon Mullen, Clemson

7. Rock Ya-Sin, Temple

8. Justin Layne, Michigan State

9. Isaiah Johnson, Houston

10. David Long, Michigan

While not an incredibly deep class, the 2019 draft has its fair share of intriguing cornerback prospects. Greedy Williams is a lengthy, fast and fluid corner who is essentially a complete prospect at the position, save for tackling and play strength. Byron Murphy and Julian Love both belong in first-round discussion, as well, as they are very smart defensive backs who can attack the ball at a high level. The Bears could look more for a future replacement for Prince Amukamara as a press-man corner than an off-man or nickel corner, though the latter isn’t out of the question. That said, Rock Ya-Sin is a physical player who excels in press-man, while Justin Layne and Isaiah Johnson are both raw, yet long and athletic prospects with very high respective ceilings.

Source: https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2019/4/10/18290525/chicago-bears-2019-nfl-draft-ranking-top-10-prospects-at-each-position

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junker-town · 6 years ago

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Bracketology 2019: A look at the bubble’s last four in and first four out

The Terriers won the SoCon Tournament final over UNC Greensboro, likely ensuring the conference’s single bid status. With the bracket stable from Monday, it’s time to dig into some bubble profiles.

Bubble teams from coast-to-coast can momentarily exhale and save their stock of antacids for the rest of Championship Week, as a major threat to their selection evaporated Monday night. The top-seeded Wofford Terriers completed a perfect 21-0 Southern Conference campaign by pulling away from the second-seeded UNC Greensboro Spartans to win the league tournament title in Asheville, 70-58. While Wes Miller’s Spartans finished with a 28-6 record, they’re unlikely to earn an at-large, even with a pair of Quad 1 victories. And that’s a shame, considering UNCG lost by just six points, 97-91, at LSU on November 9th, then hung with Kentucky Wildcats for 30 minutes at Rupp Arena on December 1st, before the Wildcats pulled away late to win 78-61.

But the threat returns this evening, as the Gonzaga Bulldogs’ resounding 100-74 WCC Tournament win over the Pepperdine Waves Monday night only came in that event’s semifinal round. The Zags, with forward Killian Tillie back from a foot injury, play the Saint Mary’s Gaels in the conference title game tonight. And while the Gaels appear on plenty of other “First/Next Four Out” lists out there, my feeling is that their profile is more sizzle than steak, so they need to win this one. If they do, an at-large bid will indeed vanish. (And so may the Bulldogs’ No. 1 seed.)

After Tuesday’s full bracket, it’s time to dig into the profiles around the cut line and why I’ve projected these eight teams to be either in the NCAAs or destined for the NIT.

Note: Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses. Arrows indicate movement up or down seed lines relative to Monday’s projection. New entrants are marked with an asterisk. Teams that have clinched bids are in all caps.

1. East (Washington, D.C.)

Columbia, South Carolina (Fri./Sun.)

1. Virginia (ACC) vs. 16. St. Francis (Pa.) (NEC)/Norfolk State (MEAC) 8. UCF vs. 9. Utah State

San José, California (Fri./Sun.)

5. Maryland vs. 12. New Mexico State (WAC) 4. Kansas State (Big 12) vs. 13. Hofstra (CAA)

Hartford, Connecticut (Thu./Sat.)

6. Marquette vs. 11. Texas 3. Purdue vs. 14. Old Dominion (C-USA)

Tulsa, Oklahoma (Fri./Sun.)

7. Iowa State vs. 10. Minnesota 2. LSU (SEC) vs. 15. BRADLEY (MVC)

4. Midwest (Kansas City, Missouri)

Columbia (Fri./Sun.)

1. North Carolina vs. 16. GARDNER-WEBB (Big South) 8. Baylor vs. 9. Seton Hall

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thu./Sat.)

5. Mississippi State vs. 12. Temple/Indiana 4. Texas Tech vs. 13. UC Irvine (Big West)

Tulsa (Fri./Sun.)

6. Auburn vs. 11. TCU 3. Houston (American) vs. 14. Georgia State (Sun Belt)

Columbus, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)

7. Buffalo (MAC) vs. 10. Arizona State 2. Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15. Omaha (Summit)

2. West (Anaheim, California)

Salt Lake City (Thu./Sat.)

1. Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 16. IONA (MAAC)/Prairie View (SWAC) 8. Louisville vs. 9. Washington (Pac-12)

Hartford (Thu./Sat.)

5. Wisconsin vs. 12. MURRAY STATE (OVC) 4. Florida State vs. 13. LIBERTY (ASUN)

Des Moines, Iowa (Thu./Sat.)

6. Villanova (Big East) vs. 11. Florida 3. Kansas vs. 14. Montana (Big Sky)

Jacksonville, Florida (Thu./Sat.)

7. WOFFORD (SoCon) vs. 10. Syracuse ↑2. Tennessee vs. 15. Colgate (Patriot)

3. South (Louisville, Kentucky)

Columbus (Fri./Sun.)

1. Kentucky vs. 16. Sam Houston State (Southland) 8. Oklahoma vs. 9. Iowa

San José (Fri./Sun.)

5. Nevada (MW) vs. 12. Ohio State/Clemson 4. Virginia Tech vs. 13. Vermont (Am. East)

Des Moines (Thu./Sat.)

6. Cincinnati vs. 11. St. John’s 3. Michigan vs. 14. Harvard (Ivy)

Jacksonville (Thu./Sat.)

7. VCU (A 10) vs. 10. Ole Miss 2. Duke vs. 15. Wright State (Horizon)

Bids by Conference: 9 Big Ten, 8 ACC, 8 Big 12, 7 SEC, 4 American, 4 Big East, 2 Mountain West, 2 Pac-12, 24 one-bid conferences

Now let’s take a closer look at the last four in the field and the first four teams left out.

Note: While team records reflect games played through Monday, March 11, 2019, NET data only reflects games played through Sunday, March 10, 2019. (Info from WarrenNolan.com.)

Last Four IN

Last four byes: St. John’s, TCU, Florida, Texas

Temple (23-8; 13-5 American Athletic) NET: 50; Quadrant 1 (Q1) record: 2-6; Quadrant 2 (Q2) record: 6-1; road/neutral record: 8-5; strength of schedule (SOS): 78; non-conference strength of schedule (NCSOS): 219

The Owls would like to send head coach Fran Dunphy into retirement with one last NCAA bid, but they’re probably going to have win one game at a minimum in the American Athletic Conference Tournament in Memphis to make that a reality. While Temple has a win over Houston, fourth in the NET, to check the “marquee Quad 1 win” box for the Committee — adding another over 28th-ranked UCF on Saturday for good measure, this profile has very little else on it. There’s no significant non-conference win nor is there a standout performance away from home — the closest result on both fronts is a 77-75 win over Davidson in Atlantic City.

Next game: Friday vs. the Wichita State/East Carolina winner in the American quarterfinals

Indiana (17-14; 8-12 Big Ten) NET: 51; Q1 record: 6-9; Q2 record: 2-5; road/neutral record: 3-9; SOS: 54; NCSOS: 205

On February 22nd, the Hoosiers lost to Iowa to drop to 13-14 and 4-12 in the Big Ten — in other words, likely out of both the NCAA and NIT pictures. Since then, Indiana has won four straight, highlighted by a double OT victory over Wisconsin and completed sweep of Michigan State. And those victories are a main reason why I suspect that Archie Miller’s team ends up in the field, despite the 14 total losses and midseason swoon. Indiana has five NET top 30 wins with three of those coming against teams in the top 15. With the Selection Committee indicating that it values high-quality wins over everything else, the Hoosiers have a real shot at sneaking in. However, a loss to the next team on this list in Thursday’s Big Ten Tournament second round could be a problem, since such a result would worsen Indiana’s already poor 2-5 record in Quad 2 games.

Next game: Thursday vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten second round

Ohio State (18-13; 8-12 Big Ten) NET: 55; Q1 record: 4-9; Q2 record: 4-3; road/neutral record: 5-7; SOS: 58; NCSOS: 157

While Indiana has rallied, the Buckeyes, 2-6 in their last eight, are fading down the stretch. Even though Ohio State has performed better than the Hoosiers against Quad 2 opponents and in games away from Columbus, the Buckeyes’ Quad 1 wins cannot compare to Indiana’s, as their best win came in Cincinnati in the season opener for both teams. And while Chris Holtmann’s team won in Bloomington during Indiana’s swoon, the Bucks’ other two Quad 1 wins came over Nebraska and Creighton, with only the latter being an at-large contender at this point. Simply put, those top wins just don’t compare to what Indiana has to offer. To be safe, Ohio State will likely need to not only beat the Hoosiers Thursday, but grab an unlikely win over Michigan State on Friday too.

Next game: Thursday vs. Indiana in the Big Ten second round

Clemson (19-12; 9-9 ACC) NET: 35; Q1 record: 1-9; Q2 record: 6-3; road/neutral record: 4-6; SOS: 33; NCSOS: 116

The Tigers’ mere presence on this list and in the current field is testament to how weird 2019’s bubble is. Clemson’s three best wins, their lone Quad 1 triumph over a Justin Robinson-less Virginia Tech squad, and two Quad 2 victories over Syracuse and Lipscomb all came at home. Beyond those victories, the best things about the Tigers’ slate is that they have no sub-100 losses and a decent non-conference schedule, unlike their most direct bubble rival, NC State. Of course, Brad Brownell’s squad will get a shot against that very team in its next contest — hoping to avenge a two-point loss suffered in Raleigh on January 26th.

Next game: Wednesday vs. NC State in the ACC second round

First Four OUT

Belmont (25-5; 16-2 OVC) NET: 45; Q1 record: 2-2; Q2 record: 3-1; road/neutral record: 12-3; SOS: 194; NCSOS: 76

I suspect that if the Jacksonville State Gamecocks had not swept the regular season series with the Bruins, the story might be different for Belmont. Still, the Bruins’ NET is high enough to ensure that Rick Byrd’s club is discussed in the Committee room. A pair of Quad 1 wins help Belmont’s case. However, since neither counts as “marquee,” I don’t think they’ll mean all that much ultimately. A non-conference sweep of Lipscomb basically only lifts the Bruins over the Bisons. One thing that really hurts Belmont’s case is the weakness of the OVC outside of its top four teams. The Bruins have 17 Quad 4, sub-200 wins, which is a mountain to overcome. All but three of those came in conference play.

Next game: Season complete

NC State (21-10; 9-9 ACC) NET: 32; Q1 record: 2-8; Q2 record: 6-0; road/neutral record: 4-6; SOS: 214; NCSOS: 353

Based on their NET ranking of 32, the Wolfpack should be a stone cold lock. And a 8-8 combined record between Quads 1 and 2 doesn’t hurt NC State’s case either. But digging into the Pack’s profile, a few troublesome items are unearthed that could serve as red flags for the Committee. Fort starters, one of the Quad 1 wins came against the 14-17 Penn State Nittany Lions. Then there’s the fact that three of the Quad 2 victories came against teams from outside the top 100. Gaze over at Quad 3 and you’ll see a pair of losses, which would be forgivable if State had more than three wins over teams currently in the field, all of which came at home.

But Quad 4 is where Kevin Keatts’ squad finds itself in real trouble. Now much has been made of how important non-conference scheduling should be to the selection process. But in the reality bracketology operates in, the Committee has indicated through its past decisions that this factor matters. (For a more detailed discussion about this, please read Patrick Stevens’ exceptional Twitter thread on the topic from yesterday.) Yet despite this knowledge, NC State has no fewer than nine home victories over teams ranked 200th or worse in the NET, and unlike Belmont’s total above, all nine came in games the Wolfpack’s coaching staff lined up. As a result, the Wolfpack’s non-conference schedule ranking is dead last nationally.

Usually, this wouldn’t be an issue in the ACC, which typically allows you to rack up quality win opportunities to overcome any November/December scheduling weakness present. But according to KenPom, the Wolfpack’s ACC schedule ranked 14th out of the 15 members. That slate wasn’t enough to boost State’s NET overall strength of schedule into the national top 200! Making matters worse, NC State couldn’t take advantage of the opportunities it did have — going 0-7 in conference Quad 1 win chances.

If the Committee is aiming to make an example of a team for its scheduling, the Wolfpack are in real trouble, even with a win over Clemson on Wednesday.

Next game: Wednesday vs. Clemson in the ACC second round

Lipscomb (23-7; 14-2 ASUN) NET: 48; Q1 record: 2-3; Q2 record: 1-3; road/neutral record: 11-4; SOS: 211; NCSOS: 61

The Bisons will long regret their inability to defeat Liberty at home, even if their win in Lynchburg doubled their final Quad 1 victory total. In a just world, Lipscomb’s November 20th 73-64 road victory over fellow bubble team TCU would help push Casey Alexander’s squad into the field of 68. Alas, the 47th-ranked Horned Frogs probably aren’t ranked high enough to count as a truly marquee win, especially since they’re just one spot higher than the Bisons. Like their Battle of the Boulevard rivals, the bottom of Lipscomb’s conference betrayed them. Lipscomb has 17 Quad 2 victories, just like Belmont, with 13 of those coming in Atlantic Sun play.

Next game: Season complete

Creighton (17-13; 9-9 Big East) NET: 54; Q1 record: 3-10; Q2 record: 6-3; road/neutral record: 4-7; SOS: 14; NCSOS: 30

I’ve spent the last three capsules complaining about scheduling, so let me begin this one by complimenting the Bluejays on doing well on this front. Of course, they didn’t do quite enough, which is why they’re on this side of the cut line. While Creighton has a potential tie-breaking neutral-court win over Clemson and a significant late-season victory at Marquette, those are the exceptions rather than the rule. While Greg McDermott’s team finished 9-9 in the Big East, they went 1-7 against league members in the field, with the only win coming against the Golden Eagles. In other words, quality victories in New York will be a requirement for Creighton’s inclusion.

Next game: Thursday vs. Xavier in the Big East quarterfinals

Next four out: Oregon, Alabama, UNCG, Furman

Even though the power-conference portion of the postseason tips off this afternoon with a trio of ACC Tournament games, none will have direct impact on the bubble picture. In fact, each team taking the floor in Charlotte today finished below .500. So, action really picks up on Wednesday, and my next update will include a viewing guide featuring all of the key matchups.

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sportsbuzz17 · 8 years ago

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A truly unique Final Four

It is a very unpredictable Final Four

The best postseason tournament among all of sports is about to wrap up in four days with the Final Four on Saturday and the National Championship on Monday in Phoenix, Arizona. The 7-seed South Carolina from the East Region, the 1-seed Gonzaga from the West, the 3-seed Oregon from the Midwest and the 1-seed North Carolina from the South are the last four teams remaining.

At first glance you think ok, Gonzaga, North Carolina and Oregon were all highly ranked teams throughout the season and the one big surprise is South Carolina. A 7-seed though reaching the Final Four shouldn’t come as that much a shock. All you have to do is look back at five of the last six Final Fours and you’ll notice a familiarity. A team seeded 7th or worst made it to the last weekend of the tournament. In 2011 11-seed VCU, 2013 9-seed Wichita State, 2014 8-seed Kentucky (7-seed Connecticut defeated the Wildcats in the National Championship), 2015 7-seed Michigan State and last year 10-seed Syracuse.

The biggest shock is how all four of these teams got to this point.

Let’s start with the Cinderella of the tournament, South Carolina. When the brackets first came out South Carolina matched up against Marquette in the 7-10 game. A lot of the experts thought Marquette’s three-point shooting would get them the win. South Carolina trailed at the half and stifled Marquette in the second half en route to a 94-73 win. Then they took on a Duke squad that a lot and I mean a lot of people had winning the whole thing because they looked so dominant in winning the ACC Tournament the week before. Once again South Carolina came back from a deficit in the second half and put up a massive 65 points in the second half to complete the upset. In the Sweet 16 their defense stymied Baylor and in the Elite Eight they beat one of their conference rivals Florida to reach the Final Four.

What makes this run so unprecedented is that the Gamecocks finished the year 3-6 before the tournament. No one had them on their radar when it came to picking a team to make a deep run. They have got this far with swarming defense and outstanding play from Sindarius Thornwell. The rest of the team doesn’t have those household names and the fact they are only two wins away from being a National Champion is unbelievable. Coach Frank Martin is already a legend in South Carolina.

Their opponent on Saturday night is the Gonzaga Bulldogs who have lost just once during the entire season. Yet many are still surprised that Gonzaga and Coach Mark Few are in the program’s first Final Four. Many thought that the 2-seed in the region, Arizona, would get to their home state and give Sean Miller his first Final Four but 11-seed Xavier had other plans and upset the Wildcats in the Sweet 16. The Zags toughest test came in the Sweet 16 against West Virginia, aka Press Virginia where the Bulldogs couldn’t find a rhythm on offense but were able to match the Mountaineers toughness. With under a minute to go and Gonzaga down 58-57 Cal transfer Jordan Mathews hit the go-ahead three-pointer that sealed the win. After the Zags tacked on a free throw West Virginia couldn’t even get a clean shot off at the end of regulation to force overtime.

After getting by West Virginia Gonzaga was able to run their style of offense against Xavier in a fairly easy 83-59 victory. Johnathan Williams, the Missouri transfer averaged 16 points and 7 rebounds in the two games to spark the Zags. A lot of people doubted how good this Gonzaga team is because they play in the West Coast Conference. Well I hope they see how good they are now because out of the four teams left there is no better center/guard duo than Przemek Karnowksi and Nigel Williams-Goss.

The other 1-seed is the “blue-blood” North Carolina. The team that was oh so close to winning it all just a year ago against Villanova. Of the four teams still standing they had the most difficult region with fellow blue bloods Kentucky and UCLA waiting in the wings. They survived Arkansas in the Round of 32 and blew out Butler in the Sweet 16. Their toughest test came against 2-seed Kentucky in the Elite Eight. This game was also being played in Memphis which is relatively SEC country. The Tar Heels were in command most of the game until a late Kentucky run gave the Wildcats a five point lead with under four minutes to go. UNC then answered with a run of their own. Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox wouldn’t go down without a fight though. Each hit crucial three pointers to keep it a one possession game. With the score at 73-70 in favor of UNC Justin Jackson missed the front end of a 1-and-1 and Malik Monk nailed the tying three with about 10 seconds. UNC’s Luke Maye though hit the game-winning shot with 0.3 seconds left on the clock. UNC won what arguably is the best game of the tournament so far 75-73.

It’s hard reaching back-to-back Final Four’s let alone back-to-back National Championships. UNC is trying to be the first to do so since the 2010 and 2011 Butler squad. Their success all comes down to the health of Joel Berry II. Both of his ankles are now injured so if he isn’t 100% then there won’t be any redemption for this team.

Last but not least the Ducks of Oregon. Many experts who dissected the brackets didn’t give Oregon much of a chance to advance past the Sweet 16 because of the injury to big-man Chris Boucher right before the tournament. He led the team in blocks and was third in scoring. With Boucher’s absence certain players have found more succinct roles. Tyler Dorsey, Dillon Brooks and Jordan Bell have all upped their game. After close victories over Rhode Island and Michigan their toughest test came against 1-seed Kansas in Kansas City. So it was basically a road game for Oregon. Kansas looked dominant in their 98-66 win over Purdue a few nights before. The Elite Eight game however belonged to the Ducks. From start to finish Oregon was the more aggressive team. They took an 11-point lead into the half and they left off where they started. Kansas took bad shots and never looked comfortable.

Oregon is back in the Final Four for the first time since 1939. There players knew how close they were a year ago when they lost to Oklahoma in the Elite Eight and they didn’t want to have that same feeling again.

Once the dust settles Saturday night there could be some compelling matchups for the National Championship. It could be the battle of the Carolina’s, an all-west battle, two 1-seeds going head-to-head or a clash of the underdogs.

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placetobenation · 5 years ago

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College football fans, we are officially down the home stretch of the college football season. There’s just one weekend of major regular season games left, then conference championships, and then we figure out the Top 4 to play for Clemson’s National Championship. First, let’s look back to last weekend and see what the hot takes were!

LOGAN:

SEC Cupcake Week: Inevitably every year fans of the SEC come upon the week known as Cupcake Week. Cupcake Week always falls the Saturday before the Rivalry Week (AKA the final week of the regular season). This week is when the SEC teams schedule FCS teams to rest up and beat up on a much inferior team. This is always a point of contention with fans of other conferences teams, especially when it comes to playoff positioning. Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt were the teams that participated in it this year and all coasted to victories over Abilene Christian, Western Carolina, Samford, UT Martin, and ETSU respectively by a combined score of 251-17.

Georgia Wins Defensive Struggle: Georgia has already wrapped up the SEC East, so at this point in the season for the Dogs it is all about making sure you don’t slip up on the way to the SEC Championship. The Dogs welcomed in the Texas A&M this week in what promised to be a very good matchup and if you like defense it was exactly that. The Dogs used their incredible defense to hold down the Aggies all game and squash a late rally to come away with the 19-13 victory.

Big 12 Championship Rematch Set: When GameDay rolled into Waco a few weeks ago, it provided an opportunity for Baylor to prove that they were among the nations elite, while for Oklahoma it was a way to keep them in the playoff hunt. Oklahoma was able to come away with the victory, but we are going to see a rematch in the Big 12 Championship. Baylor was able to qualify with a win this week over Texas, while Oklahoma slipped by TCU. The rematch still has playoff implications but it is likely that both teams would need a lot of help to get there.

Utah Inches Closer Towards the Playoff: Coming into this week, it appeared that the likely matchup in the PAC 12 Championship between Oregon and Utah would likely decide the last playoff spot if both teams took care of business. Well, as my partner will speak on the Ducks did not hold up their end. The Utes headed to Tucson to play the Arizona Wildcats. Unlike the Ducks though, the Utes would dominate the Wildcats and keep their playoff chances alive and well.

Tennessee Becomes Bowl Eligible: The title of this take is something you would’ve never convinced me that I would write. The Tennessee Volunteers could not have had a worse 5 game start to the season, starting 1-4. The job Jeremy Pruitt has done with this team to get them in the position to qualify for a bowl is incredible. With this week’s victory over Missouri, they have accomplished just that. The Vols have reeled off 5 of 6 and have the chance to go from 1-4 to 7-5. Incredible job by the Vols.

SCOTT:

Buckeyes move up: So Ohio State continues to defy the odds with a relatively young coach, amidst studs like Ed Orgeron, Dabo Swinney, Kirby Smart and Nick Saban. Right now the Buckeyes are probably the best team in the country, and after OSU’s 28-17 win over Penn State, only rival Michigan and a Big 10 Championship game they’ll likely win stand in their way to being the #1 seed in the CFP. Even without Casey Young at points this season, the defense is the best in the country. JK Dobbins is an unheralded running back, burning the Nittany Lions for 157 yards and 2 TD. The big game is Saturday in the Big House, which will have over 100,000 rocking fans. Sadly it won’t be rocking on the field. Ohio State should beat Michigan handly.

Ducks get speared by the Sun Devils: Utah has officially replaced Oregon as the hot Pac-12 team on the trail of a playoff spot. Oregon has been banging their drum all season after losing a heartbreaker in Week 1 against Auburn. Then they ran into Jayden Daniels. The Arizona State QB threw for 408 yards on just 22 completions and 3 TD as ASU upset the Ducks 31-28, effectively ending Oregon’s chance for a playoff spot. Justin Herbert threw for 304 yards with 2 TD, but also threw two costly interceptions that killed Oregon drives. The Ducks will likely face the Utes in the conference championship for a date in Pasadena.

Gophers still alive: Minnesota’s 38-22 win over Northwestern puts them at 10-1, and a legit chance at a playoff spot. Tanner Morgan threw 4 TD and the Gopher defense continues to bend but not break. Right now it would be Minnesota and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, if OSU beats Michigan and the Gophers can beat #12 Wisconsin at home. Neither game will be a cakewalk, but Minnesota has proven they can step up in a big game. If I were the Buckeyes, I’d do my business with Michigan and get ready because these gophers have nothing to lose.

Irish still fighting for a New Year’s bowl: After those two forgotten weeks where they got blown out at Michigan and then fucked off for three quarters against Virginia Tech at home before winning by 1 point, the Irish seem to have righted the ship. They’ve crushed Duke, Navy and this past week a 40-7 win over fellow Catholics Boston College. Ian Book had three TD’s and has looked fairly solid again after that deplorable performance in Ann Arbor. That loss is looming large against Notre Dame getting a New Year’s Day bowl. Right now they’re slated to face Texas on December 28 in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando. ND would like to upgrade from that. Even if they beat Stanford Saturday and finish 10-2, that’s not a guarantee of anything.

Academies Update: Army had off last week after back to back blowout wins over UMass and VMI. This week they play at Hawai’i to try to even their record at 6-6 and be bowl-eligible. After getting crushed by Notre Dame, Navy rebounded to beat ranked SMU 35-28 in Annapolis. The 8-2 Middies are at Houston this week before the big game with Army, Air Force is 9-2 after a 44-22 win over New Mexico and finish their regular season Saturday at home against Wyoming. On December 15, the Army-Navy game will decide the CID trophy.

So here’s the updated CFP standings:

IN THE PLAYOFF:

1. Ohio State (11-0)

2. LSU (11-0)

3. Clemson (11-0)

4. Georgia (10-1)

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN:

5. Alabama (10-1)

6. Utah (10-1)

7. Oklahoma (10-1)

8. Minnesota (10-1)

Now for this weekend’s biggest games, including on the greatest rivalries in sports, all games Saturday unless noted:

Friday 3:30pm: #19 Cincinnati at #18 Memphis

Noon: #1 Ohio State at #13 Michigan

Noon: #3 Clemson at South Carolina

3:30pm: #5 Alabama at #15 Auburn

3:30pm: #12 Wisconsin at #8 Minnesota

7pm: Texas A&M at #2 LSU

8pm: #7 Oklahoma at #21 Oklahoma State

#IFTTT #Place to Be Nation

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racingtoaredlight · 5 years ago

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The degenerate’s guide to college football TV watch ‘em ups, 2019 season, week 11

I typed “Bama LSU” into tumblr’s gif search and this was the only result. I take it as a representation of my flawless technique as a writer.

Let’s see if I have the heart or interest to write anything worthwhile below. I’ve probably already done the best work possible in this world. FBSchedules and Vegas Insider are supporting this post materially, unwitting yet they be.

Saturday, November 9

Matchup Time (ET) TV/Mobile

Vanderbilt at 10 Florida 12:00pm ESPN

This doesn’t belong on television. This is not the kind of thing people should waste their lives on and I mean that for the players and coaches.

4 Penn State at 17 Minnesota 12:00pm ABC

Gophers +6.5 is an absolutely sure thing. It’s either that or there is no god. You can only choose one.

WKU at Arkansas 12:00pm SECN

Have you guys followed the whole Deadspin saga from the last few weeks? My favorite part was that Maidment guy that set the whole cycle in motion and then had to write a bunch of shitty content himself to make the site look sort of normal after everybody quit. I laughed heartily at his horrible writing but I can’t help feeling I’m that kind of brainless dummy clacking away at a company laptop to produce as little impact as possible with my unoriginal words. Anyway, enjoy this version of the Petrino Bowl.

UMass at Army 12:00pm CBSSN

Army is favored by 34.5. Army is fucking awful. It’s insane that UMass has a win over an FBS team this season. Once you get blown out by UConn, people forget all about your big win over Akron. Anyway, take UMass to cover because, as many are saying, Army is fucking awful.

Purdue at Northwestern 12:00pm BTN

As today’s contemporary children are quite fond of saying, it’s gonna be a no from me, dawg.

Texas Tech at West Virginia 12:00pm ESPN2

Long gone are the days of Holgo and... the guy that coaches the Cardinals now. They both used shitty seasons to get better money this year. So now Texas Tech vs. West Virginia is just bland gruel hardly fit for a shithead on his couch.

Maryland at 1 Ohio State 12:00pm FOX

We’re into the BCS rankings part of the season so now Ohio State is ranked #1, which I mostly agree with. I still hope they lose way more often than not but I’m sort of ambivalent here. Last year Maryland fucked up and blew a great chance to upset Ohio State and I watched it with friends who are not football degenerates a day or two after our friend’s funeral. On that note, Ohio State -44 is a strong recommend.

Florida State at Boston College 12:00pm ACCN

A week ago I would not have guessed FSU could fuck themselves so thoroughly against Miami that they’d be playing with an interim head coach this week. The rumor mill for the permanent hire in Tallahassee is hilarious: Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Jim Leavitt and Deion Sanders. The nicest thing I saw about Deion’s resume was that he was the OC for a high school in Texas a few years ago. I don’t think that was his sham unaccredited school. That school was in Florida, wasn’t it? That’s quite the resume to put up against the other four. Coach Deion is a dream we can all have.

East Carolina at 25 SMU 12:00pm ESPNU

Condolences to SMU as Memphis didn’t continually shoot themselves in the dick like they normally do in high profile games. This should be a good bounceback game but the action on the line (moving 3 points towards ECU) tells me people didn’t really think that much of SMU in the first place.

12 Baylor at TCU 12:00pm FS1

I honestly don’t have any sort of read on whether Baylor’s 8-0 record is because they’re back to being good or if they’ve just feasted on mostly shitty teams. Which I guess is all they ever did under Briles, anyway. Well, TCU sucks this year so I’m not really excited to check in on this one unless there’s an exciting finish like TCU is driving with under a minute to score their 10th TD of the day before time expires to seal the shutout.

Georgia Tech at Virginia 12:30pm RSN

For as long as I live, I will only ever think of the 1990 game between these two whenever they match up.

Air Force at New Mexico Postponed

This game is postponed due to the death of UNM defensive end, Nahje Flowers. R.I.P.

UTSA at Old Dominion 2:00pm ESPN3

South Alabama at Texas State 3:00pm ESPN3

Charlotte at UTEP 3:00pm ESPN+

Stanford at Colorado 3:00pm Pac-12N

19 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech 3:30pm ACCN

If VPISU hadn’t fucked it at the end against Notre Dame last week they’d probably be ranked ahead of Wake Forest. After Wake Forest loses this week, the boys from VPI might actually jump over them, anyway.

USC at Arizona State 3:30pm ABC

Now this is more like it! I don’t mean this game is interesting for watchin’ ‘em up or gambling, but the part where both teams are unranked and struggling. USC just hired a new AD from Cincinnati and he... knows Urban Meyer? Or the draw of being from UC will be just too much for Urban to resist? Or Urban picked the guy himself as a condition of considering coaching in the Coliseum? Still seems less than done to me but I’m still holding out hope that Urban Meyer never coaches again and his family leaves him.

Louisville at Miami (FL) 3:30pm ESPN2

Still fading The U for now. The 9 sacks and the easy win over FSU were nice but FSU hasn’t had a good offensive line since Jameis Winston won the Heisman and things are in a bit of disarray there. Louisville is a better team than most people realize and they’ll run straight at Miami instead of whatever the FSU gameplan was last week. Things may have turned a corner in Coral Gables but I’m inclined to believe the biggest leap they made last week was beating up on a familiar foe who is very down in the dumps and ready to quit at a moment’s notice.

UAB at Southern Miss 3:30pm NFLN

UAB failed us big time last week and now they’re a road underdog. I didn’t realize the Favres had crawled back to being decent. I don’t have a take on the line but this is probably the best game that’s been stuck on NFL Network so far this year.

Georgia Southern at Troy 3:30pm ESPN+

Each year I struggle to remember which one is Georgia Southern and which one is Georgia State and each year I fail to attempt to fix that.

UConn at 20 Cincinnati 3:30pm CBSSN

UC on UC - it’s gonna be a bloodbath! The Ohesians are only favored by 34 against the sad huskies. That seems like a slap in the face to any reasonably well prepared football program, let alone a top 25 one.

Illinois at Michigan State 3:30pm FS1

Illinois is a half game up on Sparty right now and rumors are flying that D’antonio is gonna retire after the season. Now, let’s go kill Tom Izzo. Michigan State is favored by 14.5 in this game and, seriously, can they even score that much in one game? Take the Illini and know that you’re on the side of good even if your bets don’t come through.

2 LSU at 3 Alabama 3:30pm CBS

Weeks of press for this GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THIS YEAR THIS WEEK and then the BCS poll comes out and it isn’t even a real 1 v. 2 matchup. That’s funny. I keep waiting for something to go wildly wrong with LSU but also feel like Bama being favored by a touchdown seems off, especially if Tua is at less than full operational capacity.

16 Kansas State at Texas 3:30pm ESPN

I’ve thought Texas was overrated all year and look at them now. Favored by 7 at home against a better team. Even unrated Texas is somehow still overrated.

18 Iowa at 13 Wisconsin 4:00pm FOX

This has all the makings of a great all-time eyerake. Wisconsin -9 seems absolutely insane but so does Wisconsin #13.

New Mexico State at Mississippi 4:00pm SECN

A classic rivalry game.

North Texas at Louisiana Tech 4:00pm Facebook

A spirited game between the 096ers and the Karl Malone Got His 13-Year Old Cousin Pregnant While He Was In School Heres always gets the blood pumping.

Georgia State at ULM 5:00pm ESPN+

ESPN+ games don’t count as watch ‘em ups. Does anybody in the comments actually pay for this shit? It seems insane. $8/month for access to 30 For 30 that you effectively already have and the + is the absolute worst filth college sports can throw at you.

FIU at Florida Atlantic 6:00pm Stadium

Really have no idea what to tell you. I think I understand both of these teams and then I’m proven wrong week after week. I’m rooting for FIU if that helps.

Appalachian State at South Carolina 7:00pm ESPN2

South Carolina is favored by 5.5. That’s more than the homefield bump. Does App State run the same offense as Georgia where the QB isn’t allowed to throw past the line of scrimmage and running backs are encouraged to run straight into the backs of their offensive linemen?

Missouri at 6 Georgia 7:00pm ESPN

Hey, speaking of Georgia! They don’t get nearly enough credit for being the worst team in America to watch for entertainment purposes. It’s like Kirby Smart is trying to take all of the late career criticism that Mark Richt faced at UGA and The U and reach the same end point by the time he’s coached four season in Athens.

Utah State at Fresno State 7:00pm CBSSN

Jordan Love. I just don’t know. He’s like a more careless version of Josh Allen. Is somebody really going to draft that in the first round? He has a year of eligibility left. I don’t know if he’s due to graduate in time but if he could find his way to Missouri that might really benefit both parties.

Washington State at California 7:00pm Pac-12N

A fine specimen of Pac-12 After Dark but only like 8% of the country can even watch it legally.

15 Notre Dame at Duke 7:30pm ACCN

On a positive note, whatever happens in this game we can all laugh at the losers.

Liberty at BYU 7:30pm ESPNU

Bergie’s Watch ‘Em Of The Year!

Tennessee at Kentucky 7:30pm SECN

Let’s go whiskey!

5 Clemson at NC State 7:30pm ABC

Clemson is outside looking in at the CFP! Panic! They’ll be #3 next week!

Iowa State at 9 Oklahoma 8:00pm FOX

In the parlance of our times, Iowa State is a messy bitch who loves drama. Will the Sooners get bailed out if things are tight at the end? Absolutely. But I would still put a dime or even a quarter on the Cyclones to keep it closer than 14.5.

Wyoming at 22 Boise State 10:15pm ESPN

I think if I surveyed the commenterate here they mostly hate Boise State and that tells me you’re a bunch of idiots. A nothing program rising like they did without a Phil Knight or an oil magnate backing them and they play their home games at night on blue turf? How do you joyless pricks live with your humorless brains? I fucking love MWC football and I love the blue turf. This is a great game. Long live the Potatoes.

Nevada at San Diego State 10:30pm ESPN2

The real late night games are all MWC this week and that is fucking beautiful. Just look at this. SDSU was ranked last week but then we switched over to CFP rankings and those pricks couldn’t just give us one more group of five school. Nuhvaddduh is OK this year and SDSU isn’t quite rolling up the rushing yards they have for the past five years so maybe this will be entertaining even beyond the pretty laundry?

San Jose State at Hawaii 11:00pm Spectrum Sports

I don’t actually know what Spectrum Sports is now that I think about it. This is, on paper, a pretty even matchup. If you want to keep yourself occupied into the early morning hours, SJSU at +7 seems a decent value in these here puffy, darkened eyes.

#saturday post #watch em up #degenerate football #football #gambling #tv #rtarl watches tv

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shervonfakhimi · 6 years ago

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The Nerdtastic Blog Boy Unscientific NBA Mock Draft 1.0.

The NBA Draft takes place a little more than a week from now, where craziness and madness will surely ensue. Trades and draft picks will be made in hopes to catch the Golden State Warriors. No one knows what will happen and no one knows who is going to be great or who will bust. It is the ultimate guessing game, and I’m going to do my best at guessing it all.

1. PHX - DeAndre Ayton C Arizona: Chill, Devin Booker. It’s going to be a while before you become the next Shaq and Kobe, but you alongside DeAndre Ayton will be a killer duo that will finally bring Phoenix alive from the dead. Ayton is a 7 footer who runs like a gazelle and can score potently from anywhere on the floor. Protecting the rim could be a potential issue, as he dumbfoundedly spent the majority of his season in Arizona not playing his primary position as center (we call this the Sean Miller special), but showed some skill guarding on the perimeter. The hometown kid should be a homerun for Phoenix.

2. SAC - Luka Doncic PG/SF Real Madrid/Slovenia: It would be very Kings-y to pass on who I believe to be the best player in the draft, but there are reports he can possibly slip and that Sacramento is willing to trade back. Nevertheless, I’m willing to give Sacramento and Vlade Divac the benefit of the doubt of not messing this up, even though they’ve lost almost all credibility for me to do so. Luka is averaging over 20 points per 36 minutes in the 2nd best professional league in the world along with over 6 assists and 7 rebounds, per basketball reference. He is capable of creating a shot from anywhere on the floor for himself or others and can guard multiple perimeter positions with his size. He’s a steal even at 2, let alone anywhere below this spot. Don’t mess it up Sacramento!

3. ATL - Mo Bamba C Texas - Take care people. This man is over 7 feet tall with a 7’10” (an NBA record!) wingspan, is faster than Russell Westbrook and is equipped with a now smooth 3 point shot. Granted, everyone looks like Steph in an open gym, but not many are rim protecting extraterrestrials like this man is. If his appearance on ESPN’s ‘The Jump’ is any indication, Mo Bamba’s an extremely bright, hard-working, interesting person who seems more likely to improve than bust at the next level. He needs to get stronger, and I wish he played with a little more nasty at Texas, but if he keeps improving, Rudy Gobert with a legit 3 point shot seems nowhere near out the question with Mo Bamba.

4. MEM - Marvin Bagley III C Duke - Ahh Mike Krzyzewski. You had many to believe Jayson Tatum was not a good defender and made all us look silly. This year, you raised the stakes and forced Duke to run a zone all season long after getting shredded repeatedly defensively. Bagley is a streaky shooter (39% but in the 60s% from the free throw line) who should theoretically be able to guard about anybody in the now-positionless NBA, but did not showcase that as often. He is a menace finishing around the rim and would make a perfect fit alongside Marc Gasol in hi-low sets being set up for easy dunks.

5. DAL - Jaren Jackson Jr. PF Michigan State - Defense is not the question with Jackson, who showed potential of being able to guard everybody on the floor defensively and stretch the floor offensively from 3 (39.6% on 2.3 attempts per game, 79.7% from the Free Throw Line). Jackson struggled making the correct reads on the move and finishing in the lane, but should benefit from boosted spacing in the NBA instead of inexplicably playing with one or even two centers at Michigan State (this, we call, the Tom Izzo special), where he might be the nominal center on the floor. Jaren Jackson is exactly the personification of the positionless game the NBA has trended towards and should be able to fit in any situation from the jump. Keep in mind he’s one of the youngest players in the draft as well (born 9-15-1999). Maybe that’s why teams are trying to trade up to be able to draft him.

6. ORL - Trae Young PG Oklahoma - Trae Young was every NBA2K player’s dream, controlling the ball at all times and continuously jacking Curry-esque 3s from anywhere on the floor. Orlando is desperate for excitement and Young should bring that. Certainly his defense will need work and Orlando must create a scheme to fully maximize his skill set, but Orlando is in dire need of a point guard capable of creating offense from anywhere on the floor, and Young can certainly do that.

7. CHI - Wendell Carter Jr. C Duke - Contrary to popular belief, Wendell Carter Jr. is actually younger than fellow Devil teammate Marvin Bagley III, who reclassified to become eligible for this upcoming draft. Carter’s game is more complete than Bagley’s, perhaps without as high an upside. Like Bagley, Duke’s zone, limited spacing and, for some reason, excess in centers didn’t let Carter unleash his full repertoire, which he should do in the NBA. He and Lauri Markkanen would make a lethal big man duo.

8. CLE - Collin Sexton PG Alabama - Ok, who the hell knows what is going to happen here. Cleveland could trade for help now, maybe they could trade back to get more picks since LeBron excised almost all of them. Collin Sexton is the happy medium. The Young Bull can help right away with rugged defense (if Cleveland’s red carpet defense in the Finals was any indication, they need help there) and another ball handler who can create and give LeBron some rest.

9. NYK - Michael Porter Jr. SF Missouri - Michael Porter Jr. was supposed to be a lock inside the Top 5, but then injured his back and played all but two minutes in the regular season. He returned in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, but looked more like a fullback rumbling into the end zone than the fluid scoring machine he is. Perhaps it is risky to draft another player with injury concerns after Kristaps Porzingis tore his ACL while baptizing Giannis Antetokounmpo, but this type of talent normally doesn’t come around with the 9th overall pick. Maybe redshirt him too?

10. PHI (via LAL) - Mikal Bridges SG Villanova - Mikal Bridges is probably my favorite player in this draft. He’s smart, plays hard, defends the best playmaker on the opposing team and can really stroke it from deep. He’s the perfect player for today’s NBA and would fit seamlessly as a guy who doesn’t need the ball on a team trying to win now.

11. CHA - Kevin Knox II SF UK - Get this: another player was hurt by the lack of spacing in the college. Surprising, I know. This hurt as Knox struggled a bit in traffic, but he has a smooth shot and game overall, as he became a maven running off screens and hitting spot up shots at Kentucky. Knox should be able to kill bigger defenders as a shot making stretch 4, though will have to add muscle to defend some of them.

12. LAC (via DET) - Lonnie Walker IV PG/SG Miami (FL) - This might end up being the steal of the draft. Lonnie Walker’s fit in Miami wasn’t the cleanest with a like-minded player in Bruce Brown running the show with him, but was still able to showcase an ability to hit spot up shots on the perimeter, get after it defensively and play make out of pick and rolls. Pair him next to a pass first point guard, and Lonnie could be this year’s Donovan Mitchell. Which leads to the next pick...

13. LAC - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG Kentucky - Shai came on in Kentucky’s postseason run, controlling the tempo of games the opposite way you’d imagine freshman point guards would. He’s a skinny Kyle Anderson with a better ability to make shots. He could easily end up being the best point guard in this draft, and the Laker fan in me hates the idea of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lonnie Walker IV running together in the same backcourt.

14. DEN - Miles Bridges SF Michigan State - If you were taking drinks for each time it was mentioned a player was used improperly, well get ready for another one. Tom Izzo stuck Bridges as a small forward and go to optio in the half-court offensively when that isn’t his strong suit. Picture him as an Aaron Gordon-Julius Randle hybrid running down the floor slamming outlet passes from Nikola Jokic. Pretty lethal if you ask me.

15. WSH - Robert Williams C Texas A&M - Get ready for another drink! Robert Williams is a Capela-esque rim running lob threat who amazingly was used in 16 pick and rolls all season! Only 9 (yes, 9!) of those possessions did Williams roll to the rim, per Mike Schmitz of ESPN. John Wall is one of the better pick and roll facilitators in the NBA, meaning Williams could feast on more of these in the NBA with spacing surrounding him.

16. PHX (via MIA) - Aaron Holiday PG UCLA - This dude is a baller. Similar to his brother Jrue, Aaron is a hound defensively who can also play both on or off the ball offensively. He’d make for a perfect fit alongside DeAndre Ayton, Devin Booker and Josh Jackson.

17. MIL - Zhaire Smith SF Texas Tech - With reports Jabari Parker may not get re-signed, it would be prudent for Milwaukee to draft his replacement. He only shot 1 3 a game, making 45% of those, but can switch seamlessly across the floor. He’s a great complement alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo.

18. SA - Kevin Huerter SG Maryland - Doesn’t he just seem like the ultimate Spur? Huerter showed at the combine some sneaky athleticism and playmaking along with his lethal jumper. He just had thumb surgery, but should not drop Huerter’s stock much, if at all.

19. ATL (via MIN) - Troy Brown SF Oregon - Troy Brown is one of the youngest players in the draft as well, turning 19 in over a month from now. He’s a little raw as a creator with the ball, but fits the bill of a wing in today’s NBA. There’s a lot to work with him for Atlanta.

20. MIN (via OKC) - Jacob Evans III SF Cincinnati - Evans is a tough, quintessential ‘3-&-D’ wing the NBA is starved for. I just hope Tom Thibodeau doesn’t run his knees to the ground so Jacob Evans sustains a long, fruitful career.

21. Utah - Keita Bates-Diop SF Ohio State - Bates-Diop is a mismatch nightmare as a long 6’7” wing who can score from either forward position and switch across the floor. Utah is a team that needs scoring from anywhere they can find it to help ease the load off Donovan Mitchell, and Keita should fit like a glove and contribute on both ends immediately.

22. CHI (via NOLA) - Chandler Hutchison SF Boise State - Chicago has reportedly promised Hutchison they’d take him at 22. Yes, I somehow took the time to watch Boise State basketball (no, the court isn’t blue too) and he resembled Tobias Harris; Hutchison showed he can score in isolation situations and play off the ball as well. Him rounding out a Dunn-LaVine-Hutchison-Lauri-Carter lineup could go a long way in Chicago.

23. IND - Bruce Brown PG/SG Miami (FL) - In the playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers this last April, Indiana was held back by a lack of competent offensive creators outside of Victor Oladipo and Darren Collison. Enter Bruce Brown, who didn’t mesh alongside Lonnie Walker due to the similar games those two possess. Brown can slash and hit spot-up shots and gets after it defensively. He can play now and help Indiana immediately.

24. POR - Jerome Robinson PG/SF Boston College - Portland is desperate for wings who can playmake and stretch the floor to give Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum room to operate. They could’ve gotten one last year (Kyle Kuzma) but took Caleb Swanigan instead after previously taking another big man in Zach Collins (thanks Portland!) Robinson could be exactly what Portland hoped to get out of Evan Turner and can play now to help get the Blazers into the Western Conference Finals.

25. LAL (via CLE) - Mitchell Robinson C Western Kentucky - The Lakers don’t have the 10th pick in this draft because of the botched Steve Nash trade, but got Cleveland’s pick back for Larry Nance Jr. and Jordan Clarkson’s suit shorts (thanks Cleveland!). The Lakers lone centers on their rosters are Ivica Zubac and Thomas Bryant, and that doesn’t even include the fact that Julius Randle might end up becoming a roster casualty in their pursuit for 2 max free agents. Mitchell Robinson did not play college basketball in a rather befuddling saga involving him, but is a prototypical rim-running, rim-protecting center the NBA values from their centers these days. He’d fit perfectly along the Lakers’ young, roast heavy core.

26. PHI - Khyri Thomas PG Creighton - You want Patrick Beverley? You got it. Khyri is a hound defensively and would instantly bring a defensive skill set they lack at the guard position. He can play alongside both Markelle Fultz (if his shot is revived this summer) and Ben Simmons. Both Thomas and Mikal Bridges would do all the dirty work for Philly.

27. BOS - De’Anthony Melton PG USC - Marcus Smart might become too pricey for Boston to keep this summer. Should that be the case, why not prepare for that scenario and draft his replacement, a near carbon copy with a better shot? That’s what De’Anthony Melton needs, though he needs more seasoning after being ineligible for the FBI investigation that loomed over NCAA Basketball.

28. GS - Donte DiVincenzo SG Villanova - On April 2, 2018, the basketball world was introduced to a hot, rising star: Donte DiVincenzo’s twitter acc- uh, oh shit, no, I meant Donte DiVincenzo! Yes, the Villanova guard torched Michigan in the NCAA Championship game, securing me a win in our bracket pool. (*someone yells from the crowd: ‘No one gives a damn!’*) Ok fine, I’ll get to Donte DiVincenzo. He is very similar to fellow champion Mikal Bridges; he competes extremely hard, is very smart defensively, can hit tough shots from 3 and even create with the ball in his hands. As Golden State looks to trim the 6 million centers off their roster, they should search for more two-dimensional wings, which is what DiVincenzo is. He can play now and look for a repeat of championships of his own.

29. BKN (via TOR) - Josh Okogie SF Georgia Tech - Okogie took off at the NBA Combine. He’s big and feisty as a wing, able to guard anyone in his path. He’s raw with the ball in his hands, but still just 19 and could learn the ropes from DeMarre Carroll, who Brooklyn took on to extort this pick from Toronto. This would be a great pick for the Nets.

30. ATL (via HOU) - Anfernee Simons PG IMG - To close out the first round, we go to someone who was not even in college last season. Simons is sort of like a baby Markelle Fultz with less seasoning. His feel is not quite Fultz’, but possesses similar scoring ability from all levels of the court. Should Simons have gone to college, he likely would’ve gone higher next year. But nothing wrong with getting your money now. Atlanta is the perfect type of situation for him to enter to go through the growing pains of the NBA on a team right in the middle of their rebuild.

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thecollegefootballguy · 3 years ago

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The Real 2020 Season: Week 11

Welcome back to The Real 2020 Season! We’re imagining how things would have gone in the 2020 football season if COVID hadn’t ruined everything.

Check out the previous weeks here if you’d like a bit of context: Week 0, Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Week 10

The Rankings

Week 11 College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Alabama 9-0 (6-0) 2. Notre Dame 9-0 3. Texas A&M 9-0 (5-0) 4. Oklahoma 8-1 (5-1) 5. Texas 8-1 (5-1) 6. Florida 8-1 (6-1) 7. Oregon 8-1 (5-1) 8. Ohio State 8-1 (6-0) 9. Clemson 8-1 (7-0) 10. Georgia 7-2 (4-2) 11. Iowa State 7-2 (5-1) 12. Indiana 8-1 (5-1) 13. Cincinnati 9-0 (5-0) 14. Oklahoma State 7-2 (4-2) 15. Stanford 7-2 (6-1) 16. Northwestern 7-2 (5-2) 17. Iowa 7-2 (4-2) 18. Auburn 7-2 (4-2) 19. LSU 6-3 (3-2) 20. Tulsa 7-2 (4-1) 21. Liberty 9-0 22. Arizona State 7-2 (4-2) 23. Wake Forest 7-2 (4-1) 24. Wisconsin 6-3 (4-2) 25. Coastal Carolina 9-0 (5-0)

The Narrative

The Playoff races have taken shape and are playing out. The winner of the SEC, whether it be #1 Alabama, #3 Texas A&M, or #6 Florida, will have the necessary pull to claim a spot in the Playoff. #2 Notre Dame seems to have a wide open path assuming they can finish strong. The Big 12 champion, likely either #4 Oklahoma or #5 Texas, seem to have a stronger claim in the Committee among the 1-loss claimants. The rest of the Power 5 leagues are coalescing around champions before the end of the season: #7 Oregon in the PAC-12, #8 Ohio State in the Big Ten, and #9 Clemson in the ACC.

The crowded race is keeping #13 Cincinnati from serious consideration by the Committee for a spot in the Playoff, angering the small schools but there isn’t as big a push so far this year.

The Games

Compared to the final two weeks of November, Week 11 doesn’t have as many high profile matchups, but there is always potential this late in the season for crucial upsets. Let’s check out the damage.

Winning teams are highlighted in bold.

Army at Tulane San Diego State at BYU Connecticut at San Jose State Western Carolina at Liberty Massachusetts at #18 Auburn Texas Southern at New Mexico State #2 Notre Dame at Georgia Tech East Carolina at #13 Cincinnati South Florida at Houston Memphis at Navy SMU at #20 Tulsa Temple at UCF Boston College at Florida State The Citadel at #9 Clemson #23 Wake Forest at Louisville NC State at Syracuse Virginia at Duke Miami FL at Virginia Tech Pittsburgh at North Carolina Baylor at #11 Iowa State Kansas at Texas Tech Kansas State at #4 Oklahoma West Virginia at #14 Oklahoma State TCU at #5 Texas Illinois at #12 Indiana #8 Ohio State at Maryland Michigan at Rutgers Michigan State at Penn State Nebraska at #17 Iowa Morgan State at #16 Northwestern #24 Wisconsin at Purdue Old Dominion at Charlotte Florida Atlantic at FIU Middle Tennessee at Marshall Southern Miss at Western Kentucky Rice at Louisiana Tech North Texas at UAB UTEP at UTSA Bowling Green at Akron Miami OH at Buffalo Ohio at Kent State Eastern Michigan at Ball State Central Michigan at Toledo Northern Illinois at Western Michigan Colorado State at Air Force Boise State at New Mexico Fresno State at Utah State Wyoming at Nevada UNLV at Hawaii #22 Arizona State at #7 Oregon Oregon State at Utah Colorado at #15 Stanford Washington at USC Washington State at UCLA Missouri at #6 Florida Tennessee at #10 Georgia Mississippi State at Kentucky South Carolina at #19 LSU Vanderbilt at #3 Texas A&M UT Martin at #1 Alabama Ole Miss at Arkansas Georgia State at Appalachian State #25 Coastal Carolina at Troy Texas State at Georgia Southern Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas State South Alabama at Louisiana

This week, which only featured one ranked vs ranked game, turned out to be incredibly important. The top 3 were basically unchallenged as they swept away far worse competition. The big drama comes from the Big 12 Conference, which just saw a terrible collapse. #4 Oklahoma lost at home to unranked Kansas State, almost simultaneously, #5 Texas was upset in Austin by similarly unheralded TCU. It’s a devastating blow for the conference, and will likely bar the league from Playoff contention unless something really weird happens. The Big 12′s hopes up and dying represent the breath of life for programs like #7 Oregon, #8 Ohio State, and even #9 Clemson, who now have a more approachable path to the Playoff.

Unlike Oklahoma and Texas, the rest of the contenders didn’t mess the bed this week so there isn’t much else going on. #23 Wake Forest was upset by Louisville, handing #9 Clemson the Atlantic Division even ahead of their meeting with the Deacs. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s win over Pittsburgh puts the Tar Heels in charge of the ACC Coastal. All of the sudden, #11 Iowa State is ahead of both the Sooners and Longhorns in the Big 12 standings. ISU has a clear path to their first conference title in over 100 years. #7 Oregon beat #22 Arizona State to shut down another would-be South contender. It’s looking like the Duck’s year again, especially as #15 Stanford has taken themselves out of the conversation with a home loss to Colorado. #6 Florida was able to sew up the SEC East division with their win over Missouri. The Gators will meet the SEC West winner in Atlanta, likely to decide the #1 seed in the Playoff.

The Big 12′s collapse probably won’t open the door wide enough for #13 Cincinnati. With 4 Power Conferences and Notre Dame still in the running it’s hard to image the Bearcats getting the nod.

The Standings

The Big Picture

The Big 12′s bed wetting, the clear path to the Playoffs extends comfortably to the SEC champion and Notre Dame. The other two spots will go to either Oregon, Ohio State, Clemson, or a runner-up SEC team. At this point, I have to imagine that the SEC might seriously get two bids. This might be another year where we see calls for an expanded Playoff if more than one P5 conference champion gets left out.

The New Rankings

Week 12 College Football Playoff Rankings

Things are certainly getting interesting. 3 SEC teams in the top 4 is really starting to suggest the league gets a second bid as an at-large contender. We’ll see how things shake out, but do not be surprised if that’s what happens. #5 Oregon is still getting favored over #6 Ohio State and #7 Clemson, so in the likelihood that only one spot is left outside of the SEC and Notre Dame, it looks like the Ducks will take it.

The Big 12 is nearly outside of the top 10, a huge tumble for the league which will likely face their first postseason without a team in the Playoffs since the 2016 season.

Tune in next time for the penultimate week of the regular season!

#college football #Alabama Crimson Tide #Notre Dame Fighting Irish #Florida Gators #Oregon Ducks #Ohio State Buckeyes #Clemson Tigers #Georgia Bulldogs #Indiana Hoosiers #Iowa State Cyclones #Louisville Cardinals #Kansas State Wildcats #TCU Horned Frogs #Colorado Buffaloes

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flauntpage · 7 years ago

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Making Sense of the Sweet 16

Loyola-Chicago is in.

Virginia is out.

Just like we all drew it up, right? No lack of excitement on the first weekend of March Madness.

We witnessed history when UMBC became the first 16-seed to dispatch a one seed. We had a pair of 11/3 upsets and the defending champions were clobbered by 21 points. The only true letdown was that Grayson Allen and Duke found a way to advance.

If your alma mater didn’t get thumped, then you probably enjoyed the hell out of this weekend. Great games, great storylines, and some interesting talking points heading into the second week.

1. Parity and conference strength

Here’s how the conferences are represented in the Sweet 16:

Big 12 – 4 teams

ACC – 4 teams

Big Ten – 2 teams

SEC – 2 teams

Missouri Valley, Mountain West, West Coast, Big East – 1 each

Those numbers don’t mean much in a one-and-done tournament format, but you add a little bit of context by looking at the percentage of schools delivered to the second weekend:

Conference breakdown of the Sweet 16: ACC and Big 12 have 4 teams each; SEC, Big Ten have 2 each; Big East, Missouri Valley, West Coast, Mountain West all with 1. https://t.co/1jhFbL1o6U pic.twitter.com/SwQFi5PhNC

— Oskar Garcia (@oskargarcia) March 19, 2018

The smaller conferences don’t have enough of a representation to put too much stock into any of their numbers, but you see the Pac-12 bottom out there with the 0-3 mark. Arizona’s loss to Buffalo was a killer while UCLA and ASU went out in the play-in games. That’s not totally surprising, since the Pac had a lackluster out of conference winning percentage in the regular season, going 104-44 and ranking last among the “power conferences.”

Take a look at the OOC numbers each conference posted this year:

Run those rankings against the first weekend numbers.

The Big 12 held court, putting four of seven teams into the Sweet 16. The Virginia and North Carolina upsets hurt the ACC, which got a needed boost from Clemson and Syracuse instead.

You’d have to say the Big East was probably the biggest disappointment of the first weekend, sending only Villanova to the next round. The conference was excellent in the OOC schedule this year, finishing 101-23 with an 81.4 winning percentage, the second best in the entire country. Xavier’s loss was a big black eye, while the lower-seeded Big East squads drew some tough matchups in Kansas, Texas A&M, and Purdue. I thought Creighton underwhelmed.

Does any of this mean that college basketball features “parity?”

I don’t know. The question always comes up during March Madness, simply because the tournament gives us a huge raw sample of high stakes non-conference matchups. I tend to lean on the second chart above, because there’s just more data to parse, even if a chunk of those games are played early in the season when teams might not be clicking yet. For example, how much stock do you put in a late-November game at the Maui Invitational versus a Big 12/SEC challenge game played in January? How much weight does a neutral floor game in Germany carry versus an 8/9 tournament matchup between Alabama and Seton Hall in Boise? There are a ton of factors to consider.

OOC parity is tough because the biggest data sample comes from the early portion of the schedule, while the tournament gives us neutral court, playoff-type of situations in a smaller size. If UMBC plays Virginia 10 times, how many do the Retrievers win? One? Two? How about Xavier vs. Florida State with 4 games in Cincinnati, 4 in Tallahassee, and 2 on an aircraft carrier docked on Penn’s Landing?

In recent years, the upsets sort of fade out when we get to week two. If you look at the seeds that have entered the Final Four going back about 6-7 years, this is who advanced to the last weekend:

2017: 1, 1, 3, 7

2016: 2, 1, 2, 10

2015: 1, 1, 7, 1

2014: 7, 8, 1, 2

2013: 1, 4, 4, 9

2012: 1, 2, 2, 4

2011: 3, 8, 4, 11

So that’s only two double digit seeds qualifying for the final four going back to 2011.

The number 10 seed in 2016 was Syracuse, a traditional power, and the 11 seed in 2011 was VCU, probably the last true “Cinderella” to make the final weekend of the tournament. And the lower-seeded single digit teams are Butler, Wichita State, Michigan State, and Kentucky, two traditional powers and two teams that I hesitate to call “mid-majors” because of their consistent success year-in and year-out (which led to jumping into better conferences).

But the story is more or less the same; in recent seasons, the cream rises to the top.

I tend to agree with this guy:

"There's a lot of parity in college basketball" 13/16 schools remaining are from power conferences… so let's at least try and come up with some valid insight for next year…

— Garrett Vascil (@GarrettVascil) March 19, 2018

2. Villanova

The path to the Final Four looks good.

West Virginia plays tough defense and a full court press, but Nova has experienced guards who can handle the ball and create transition offense. All it takes is a corner three off a press-break to unsettle a Bob Huggins team, and God knows we’re not going to shoot like we did against Marshall.

If you’re a neutral, tune in for the Jalen Brunson vs. Jevon Carter matchup. These are two of the country’s better, more experienced guards going at it on Friday night. I think it’ll be close for a bit but Nova has too much back court savvy to lose to a gimmicky team like us. I say Nova 72, WV 63.

From there, the Cats get the Texas Tech/Purdue winner. WVU beat Tech twice, so if Nova handles us, they shouldn’t have any issues with the Raiders. Purdue is playing without center Isaac Haas, who fractured his elbow in the first tournament game, so there’s another boon for Nova.

Then it’s Kansas or Duke. Kansas is the better draw. They’re a small ball, guard-oriented team that shoots the three extremely well but doesn’t have a ton inside. Again, I like Villanova’s experienced back court going up against Devonte’ Graham in that game. Duke is more balanced and more dangerous than Kansas. This is one of Bill Self’s less-talented teams of the last 10 years, but he’s done a nice job with the group. Coach K’s squad is probably the toughest test for Villanova on that side of the bracket.

3. Syracuse

Ah yes, the ‘ole disrespect card.

“I told you we deserved to be here! We were right! You were wrong!”

Syracuse fans are too educated to go down this road, the road of trying to justify your inclusion in the tournament based on what happens AFTER the selection. It doesn’t work that way.

The Orange were the last team in, according to the committee. They were 20-13, finished 10th in the ACC, and carried highly questionable tournament credentials.

They won an 11 vs. 11 play-in game, then beat six-seed TCU before upsetting Michigan State on Sunday afternoon in one of the weekend’s ugliest games:

I’ll be honest, I used to love college basketball before I started writing about the Sixers. But now that I see the NBA on a regular basis, I have a new understanding of how raw and unpolished college basketball really is, especially on the offensive side.

Watch how NBA teams move the ball and space the floor, and then watch a college team try to do those same things. That, I think, is where the biggest difference lies.

But, don’t get me wrong, I give a ton of credit to Jim Boeheim and Syracuse for getting here. If the opponent is gonna sit back in a 2-3 zone, then you have to hit some outside shots. Michigan State shot 25.8% and lost by two. If they make 18 or 19 field goals in this game, instead of going 17-66 (barf), they win. Sparty has nobody to blame but themselves.

That said, going back to what I mentioned above, I don’t understand why people keep playing the revisionist history card. Syracuse fans are super smart, they know basketball, and they should understand that anything can happen when you get in. I mean, they made the Final Four as a 10 seed just two years ago.

But the problem is that past history and the overall success of the program are irrelevant to the single season resume you build to qualify for the tournament.

I made a simple diagram to explain:

In basic terms:

A) Did Syracuse have questionable tournament credentials?

Yes.

B) Are they going on a really nice run right now?

Absolutely.

C) does B change anything regarding A?

No.

D) does it matter?

Not really, no.

That’s about it. I just become somewhat agitated when I see Syracuse fans trolling college basketball writers who said that they didn’t deserve to be in the tournament based on their regular season body of work. That 20-13 record is what it is. Those opinions were all justified at the time and backed up by a 4-7 mark against the RPI top 50, an 8-10 conference record, and a pair of bad losses to Georgia Tech (13-19) and Wake Forest (11-20).

I certainly feel like Syracuse benefited from name recognition and past tournament performances (no shit), two things that don’t have anything to do with the body of work this squad put together in 2017/2018.

THAT SAID, I give them major props for ripping off three wins in six days to advance to the Sweet 16, where I will be pulling for them to bury Duke like the cockroaches they are.

Making Sense of the Sweet 16 published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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junker-town · 6 years ago

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Bracketology: North Carolina replaces Duke as No. 1 seed in latest NCAA tournament projection

Plus, LSU is now a No. 2 seed, somehow. Down at the other end of the bracket picture, we’re going to need Championship Week to sort out the bubble.

Let’s start today’s update with the four No. 1 seeds. The North Carolina Tar Heels swapped places with the Duke Blue Devils, the final top seed in Tuesday’s bracket and Friday’s bubble update, after sweeping the pair’s season series with a 79-70 victory in Chapel Hill. The now Tar Heels rank fourth overall behind the Virginia Cavaliers (victorious over the Louisville Cardinals), Gonzaga Bulldogs (who next take the floor Monday night in the WCC Tournament semifinals) and Kentucky Wildcats (relatively comfortable winners over the Florida Gators).

While Duke dropped to seed line No. 2, the Blue Devils aren’t out of the race yet. After last night’s game, head coach Mike Krzyzewski indicated that Zion Williamson should return for next week’s ACC Tournament. And guess what, the third-seeded Blue Devils could meet the second-seeded Tar Heels again in Friday night’s semifinals. But now Williamson isn’t the only injury worry for Duke, as the Blue Devils lost their main post presence, Marques Bolden, to an MCL sprain in last night’s second half. Krzyzewski stated that the timetable for his return is less clear.

The Michigan State Spartans, who defeated the Michigan Wolverines for a second time this season, 75-63, are now the second-ranked No. 2 seed, followed by the SEC co-champions, the Tennessee Volunteers (despite a loss at the Auburn Tigers) and LSU Tigers. The latter jumped up despite Friday’s news that the school was suspending head coach Will Wade indefinitely following his appearance on an FBI wiretap and Saturday’s decision to hold Javonte Smart, the player referenced in that recording, out of action. The Tigers ended up defeating the Vanderbilt Commodores, who finished 0-18 in SEC play, 80-59, on a surreal evening at the Maravich Center.

Michigan falls to the No. 3 line after its loss in East Lansing, and the Houston Cougars, Kansas Jayhawks and Purdue Boilermakers — Big Ten co-champions alongside Michigan State — follow the Wolverines. The Big 12’s co-champions, the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Kansas State Wildcats, reside on seed line No. 4, along with a pair of ACC teams, the Florida State Seminoles and Virginia Tech Hokies.

Now it’s time to look at the field as a whole, starting with the left side of the traditional bracket (East and Midwest), followed by the right (West and South). I’ve eliminated team nicknames from the projection, mostly to help speed things up over the final week of the season. As is my tradition, the names of actual auto bid winners appear in ALL CAPS. (You’ll have to ignore the teams represented by acronyms only, LSU and VCU, for now.)

Note: Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses. Arrows indicate movement up or down the seed list relative to Tuesday’s bracket. New entrants are marked with an asterisk.

1. East (Washington, D.C.)

Columbia, South Carolina (Fri./Sun.)

1. Virginia (ACC) vs. 16. St. Francis (Pa.) (NEC)/Norfolk State (MEAC) ↑8. UCF vs. ↓9. Ole Miss

San José, California (Fri./Sun.)

↑5. Maryland vs. ↓12. Lipscomb (ASUN) 4. Kansas State (Big 12) vs. 13. Vermont (Am. East)

Hartford, Connecticut (Thu./Sat.)

↓6. Marquette vs. ↑11. TCU 3. Purdue vs. ↓14. Old Dominion (C-USA)

Jacksonville, Florida (Thu./Sat.)

↓7. Wofford (SoCon) vs. ↓10. Syracuse 2. Tennessee vs. 15. Colgate (Patriot)

4. Midwest (Kansas City, Missouri)

Columbia (Fri./Sun.)

1. North Carolina vs. 16. Sam Houston State (Southland) ↑8. Oklahoma vs. ↑9. Utah State

Salt Lake City, Utah (Thu./Sat.)

5. Mississippi State vs. *12. MURRAY STATE (OVC) 4. Texas Tech vs. ↑13. UC Irvine (Big West)

Tulsa, Oklahoma (Fri./Sun.)

↑6. Iowa State vs. ↓11. Ohio State 3. Houston (American) vs. 14. Georgia State (Sun Belt)

Columbus, Ohio (Fri./Sun.)

7. Buffalo (MAC) vs. ↑10. Seton Hall 2. Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. *15. Omaha (Summit)

2. West (Anaheim, California)

Salt Lake City (Thu./Sat.)

1. Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 16. Iona (MAAC)/Prairie View (SWAC) ↑8. Louisville vs. ↓9. Washington (Pac-12)

Hartford (Thu./Sat.)

5. Wisconsin vs. ↓12. Temple/Texas ↑4. Florida State vs. 13. Hofstra (CAA)

Des Moines, Iowa (Thu./Sat.)

↓6. Villanova (Big East) vs. ↓11. Florida 3. Kansas vs. *14. Radford (Big South)

Tulsa (Fri./Sun.)

7. VCU (A 10) vs. ↑10. Arizona State ↑2. LSU (SEC) vs. 15. Montana (Big Sky)

3. South (Louisville, Kentucky)

Columbus (Fri./Sun.)

1. Kentucky vs. *16. Bradley (MVC) ↓8. Iowa vs. ↓9. Baylor

San José (Fri./Sun.)

5. Nevada (MW) vs. *12. Indiana/Clemson 4. Virginia Tech vs. 13. New Mexico State (WAC)

Des Moines (Thu./Sat.)

6. Cincinnati vs. ↑11. St. John’s ↓3. Michigan vs. 14. Harvard (Ivy)

Jacksonville (Thu./Sat.)

↑7. Auburn vs. ↑10. Minnesota ↓2. Duke vs. 15. Wright State (Horizon)

Rundown

Last Four Byes: St. John’s, TCU, Ohio State, Florida Last Four IN: Temple, Texas, Indiana, Clemson First Four OUT: Belmont, Creighton, NC State, Oregon Next Four OUT: Furman, Alabama, Liberty, Memphis

New Today: Bradley, Murray State, Omaha, Radford Leaving Today: Belmont, Campbell, Loyola Chicago, South Dakota State

Bids by Conference: 9 Big Ten, 8 ACC, 8 Big 12, 7 SEC, 4 American, 4 Big East, 2 Mountain West, 2 Pac-12, 24 one-bid conferences

Saturday’s bubble wrap

The bubble picture continues to be as clear as mud. And you can see why after taking a look at Saturday’s key results.

The 19-12 TCU Horned Frogs dominated the Texas Longhorns in Austin, with the 69-56 final score honestly flattering Shaka Smart’s team. While the Horned Frogs left the “Last Four In” group with the win, the Longhorns, now 16-15, replaced them. And Texas would be well advised to win at least one game at the Big 12 Tournament. For starters, the ‘Horns’ next loss will be their 16th, and the Selection Committee has never taken a team with that many defeats. Plus, a one-and-done performance in Kansas City would leave Texas at 16-16, which would virtually guarantee an NIT bid.

The Temple Owls and Clemson Tigers earned a bit more cushion with their respective home wins over the UCF Knights and Syracuse Orange, but both still need to do some work next week.

As for the NC State Wolfpack, their 73-47 rout of the Boston College Eagles didn’t do much to move the needle. Usually, teams can rely on a strong conference schedule to boost a weak non-conference slate. But the Wolfpack, owner of the nation’s worst non-conference schedule, didn’t get many favors from the ACC in that department, and as a result, their overall schedule ranks just 217th. In other words, Kevin Keatts’ squad has some work to do in Charlotte, starting with a potential bubble elimination game against Clemson on Wednesday.

The Creighton Bluejays look to be the Big East team with the best shot of breaking through with a strong performance at Madison Square Garden, thanks to a home win over the DePaul Blue Demons. Meanwhile, the Georgetown Hoyas (over the fading Marquette Golden Eagles) and Xavier Musketeers (victorious over the St. John’s Red Storm for the second time in 10 days) could cause some headaches in New York.

The Red Storm, along with Syracuse and Florida were among yesterday’s biggest bubble losers. The Alabama Crimson Tide joined this group with an 82-70 setback against the Arkansas Razorbacks, the Tide’s third straight loss. So did the Washington Huskies, the Pac-12 regular-season champions who seem intent on making #Pac1Bid happen. Mike Hopkins’ squad scored only 18 first-half points in a dispiriting home loss to the Oregon Ducks, who are now the fourth team out. At least the Arizona State Sun Devils managed to sweep the Arizona Wildcats for the first time in Bobby Hurley’s tenure in Tempe. That win gave ASU a little bit more margin for error in Las Vegas next week.

Conference tournament update

If you want to witness the thrill of victory, the agony of defeat and nearly every other emotion in between, mid-major conference tournaments are as close as you’re going to get to experiencing ABC’s long-departed Wide World of Sports program here in 2019.

Three potential March headliners faded into NIT oblivion within a 26-hour span on Friday and Saturday. First, the Campbell Fighting Camels, featuring 3,000-point scorer Chris Clemons, lost their Big South Tournament semifinal at home as the No. 1 seed to the Gardner-Webb Bulldogs. Then, late on Saturday afternoon, the Bradley Braves eliminated last season’s Final Four surprise, the Loyola Chicago Ramblers, in the Arch Madness semifinals in St. Louis. A few hours after that, one of the biggest shocks you’ll ever witness in a conference tournament happened in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. In the first Summit League Tournament quarterfinal, the eighth-seeded Western Illinois Leathernecks, 9-20 in the regular season, won a virtual road game to eliminate the top-seeded South Dakota State Jackrabbits, featuring yet another 3,000-point scorer in Mike Daum. The Jackrabbits were aiming for their fourth consecutive NCAA trip and had defeated the Leathernecks by 42 and 20 in their two regular season matchups, the second of which happened exactly one week earlier.

The one big mid-major star who is so far guaranteed to take the floor on either March 21st or 22nd is the Murray State Racers’ Ja Morant, who scored 36 in his team’s 77-65 OVC Tournament title game triumph over the top-seeded Belmont Bruins last night. That was the Racers’ second consecutive championship game win over the team that’s become their most significant rival.

But again, the Racers’ joy was accompanied by the bitterness the Bruins are surely now feeling, along with the anxious wait they’ll experience over the next week. Rick Byrd’s squad is my first team out as of this morning. While Belmont is 2-2 in Quad 1 games and 3-1 in Quad 2 matchups, the team’s profile lacks the marquee, name-brand win the Committee has recently wanted bubble teams to own. And while the Bruins are 12-3 in true road games, they also have a whopping 17 wins against teams ranked 200th or worse in the NET.

But considering how weird this season is and how mediocre Belmont’s bubble competition is, you can’t rule them out. Too many twists and turns and pothole remain on 2019’s version of the road to Selection Sunday.

I’ll have a fresh update Monday taking into account the final games of the regular season and Sunday’s three big conference championship games.

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madpicks · 8 years ago

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New Post has been published on https://www.madpicks.com/sports/ncaab/previewing-2017-final-four-oregon-gonzaga-north-carolina-south-carolina/

Previewing the 2017 Final Four: Oregon, Gonzaga, North Carolina & South Carolina

The 2017 Final Four in Phoenix figures to be a weekend that features a little bit of all the different parts that make March Madness the most attractive and exciting potseason in all of American sports.

For starters, you have a powerhouse program in North Carolina, which will be making its 20th all-time appearance at the Final Four, the most of any program in the country. Then there’s Gonzaga, the mid-major Cinderella that did the unthinkable by becoming a national powerhouse, and which is now looking for the final (and most important) notch in its credibility belt. Oregon represents the classic under-the-radar power that felt like it was under-valued all season long, and has now had the chance to prove it on the sport’s biggest stage. The unpredictability of the event is well-represented in South Carolina, a seven seed that hadn’t won a game in the Big Dance in 43 years before stringing together four straight over the last two weeks.

While everyone likely believes they have a good idea how the final two days of the 2016-17 college hoops season is going to play out, that least two weeks have proven how little we know. Don’t be surprised if an unpredictable year gets wrapped up with an unpredictable finish.

Oregon

It’s easy to forget that Oregon actually began the 2016-17 ranked ahead of North Carolina. The Ducks were No. 5 in the preseason polls from both the Associated Press and USA Today, one spot ahead of the Tar Heels.

The preseason hype for Dana Altman’s team simmered a bit when Oregon lost two of its first four games of the season. Never mind that star guard Dillon Brooks missed the loss to Baylor because of a foot injury and that he was limited in the loss to Georgetown for the same reason, the shine was taken away off the Ducks before the rest of the country even had a chance to start paying attention to them.

Eventually, Brooks got back to full strength and so did his team. Oregon reeled off 17 consecutive victories and finished tied with Arizona atop the Pac-12 standings at 16-2. Then, with the Ducks fighting for both a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance and a Pac-12 tournament title, the injury bug reared its head again. Hours before the Pac-12 title game, it was announced that senior big man Chris Boucher was done for the season because of an ACL tear suffered in the semifinals the night before. Boucher had been averaging 11.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game in a senior season where he had established himself as Oregon’s best defensive player.

With Boucher out, it was on others to step up and shoulder a higher amount of the team’s production load. No one has done that more than sophomore guard Tyler Dorsey, who has scored 20 points or more in seven consecutive games. Midwest Regional MVP Jordan Bell has also become a March monster. He’s notched a double-double in four of Oregon’s last five games, and was two blocked shots away from posting a triple-double in his team’s regional final upset of top-seeded Kansas.

Oregon has been to a Final Four before, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be a stranger in Phoenix. The Ducks won the first NCAA tournament ever all the way back in 1939, and this will be their first trip to the national semifinals since.

Gonzaga

Despite making 19 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances and winning at least one game in the last nine Big Dances, there were still those who wanted to see more from Gonzaga. They got their wish in 2017, as the Zags can never again be referred to as “the winningest college basketball program never to make a Final Four.”

Gonzaga didn’t taste defeat in 2016-17 until its very last game of the regular season, a stunning 79-71 home loss at the hands of BYU. That loss stripped the Bulldogs from having any shot at being the NCAA tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, but a 32-1 mark that included wins over eventual tournament victors like Arizona, Michigan, Iowa State and Saint Mary’s (three times) was still enough in the Committee’s eyes to make Mark Few’s team that headliner in the West Region.

After receiving tough tests from eighth-seeded Northwestern in the second round fourth-seeded West Virginia in the third, everything clicked for Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. The third time in a regional final proved to be the charm, as the Bulldogs dropped the hammer on 11th-seeded Xavier, punching their ticket to the Final Four with an 83-59 rout.

For this Gonzaga team to have a different level of success in the NCAA tournament, it had to first gain a different level of athleticism on its roster. Few accomplished that by landing high-profile transfer in WCC Player of the Year and All-American candidate Nigel Williams-Goss (Washington), backcourt mate Jordan Matthews (Cal) and junior swingman Johnathan Williams (Missouri). That trio combined with veteran big man Przemek Karnowski and super-talented freshman big man Zach Collins have formed the biggest, most complete and overall best stable of talent in Gonzaga’s two decade run as a player on the national scene.

Now we get to find out if it also forms the best team in college basketball this season.

North Carolina

North Carolina may not be the only No. 1 seed still standing, but there’s little doubt that the Tar Heels are now the overwhelming favorite to cut down the nets inside University of Phoenix Stadium. After winning the ACC’s regular season championship by a full two games, the Tar Heels were rewarded by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee with the top seed in the South Region.

UNC claimed the South Regional title by knocking off Texas Southern, Arkansas, Butler and Kentucky in consecutive games. The final win of that quartet was a 75-73 thriller over the second-seeded Wildcats in which North Carolina’s Luke Maye hit a dramatic game winner with just 0.3 seconds to play. The shot was sweet redemption for a Tar Heel team that was beaten at the buzzer by Kris Jenkins and Villanova in 2016 national championship game.

Always known for their ability to put points on the board, North Carolina enters the Final Four ranking third in the nation in assists per game (18.2) and ninth in points per game (85.0). They are especially potent on the glass, where they lead the country in both rebounds per game (43.7) and offensive rebound percentage (40.9 percent).

ACC Player of the Year Justin Jackson leads the team in scoring at 18.2 points per game, but there are three other Tar Heels who average better than 12.0 ppg. Junior point guard Joel Berry (14.6 ppg/3.6 apg) makes the UNC offense go, while big man Kennedy Meeks (12.3 ppg/9.3 rpg) has finally become a complete player in his senior season.

This will be the ninth Final Four appearance for head coach Roy Williams, who now ranks behind only only John Wooden (12), Mike Krzyzewski (12), and Dean Smith (11) in that category. Under Williams, the Tar Heels have won both their national championships in years where the team has both won the Maui Invitational and not won the ACC tournament, a pair of attributes the 2016-17 team owns. The Heels are making their 20th all-time appearance at the Final Four, the most of any program in history.

South Carolina

South Carolina might not be a March Madness Cinderella in the most traditional sense. That role is typically reserved for the little guy, the small conference champion who makes the most of their rare moment in the spotlight by stunning a national powerhouse or two. It’s a mold that a state school with a big-time coach from a power conference doesn’t seem to fit.

Still, the Gamecocks are in the midst of one of the more improbable runs in recent NCAA tournament history. And if they win two more games, they’ll have a claim to the title of being the most improbable champion in NCAA tournament history.

There was nothing in the weeks leading up to the NCAA tournament that indicated South Carolina could be capable of winning more than one game in the Big Dance, let alone four. The team had dropped five of its last seven games, with four of those defeats coming by seven points or more. If there was a reason to talk about the Gamecocks on Selection Sunday, it was to label them as arguably the most over-seeded team in the field of 68.

Two weeks later, Frank Martin’s seventh-seeded South Carolina squad is somehow one of the final four teams still dancing. The team has thrived on its defense all season, but the biggest way to explain its recent run of success is to point to star guard Sindarius Thornwell. The SEC Player of the Year is the leading scorer in the tournament, scoring somewhere between 24 and 29 points in each of USC’s four wins. If that continues, and a supporting cast that features super-talented backcourt mate PJ Dozier continued to pull its weight, then the Gamecocks might not be done shocking the college basketball world.

#Final Four #Gonzaga #march madness #North Carolina #Oregon #South Carolina #NCAAB

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thecollegefootballguy · 3 years ago

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The Real 2020 Season: Week 6

Hello everyone, welcome back to The Real 2020 Season! We’re imagining how things would have gone in the 2020 football season if COVID hadn’t ruined everything.

Check out the previous weeks here if you’d like a bit of context: Week 0, Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5

The Rankings

Week 6 AP Poll

1. Alabama 5-0 (2-0) 2. Clemson 5-0 (4-0) 3. Oklahoma 4-0 (1-0) 4. Oregon 5-0 (2-0) 5. Florida 5-0 (3-0) 6. Texas 4-0 (1-0) 7. Notre Dame 5-0 8. Auburn 5-0 (2-0) 9. Texas A&M 5-0 (2-0) 10. Ohio State 3-1 (1-0) 11. Georgia 4-1 (1-1) 12. Iowa 5-0 (2-0) 13. LSU 4-1 (1-0) 14. Indiana 4-0 (1-0) 15. Cincinnati 5-0 (1-0) 16. Miami FL 5-0 (1-0) 17. Washington 3-1 (0-1) 18. Penn State 4-1 (2-0) 19. Stanford 4-0 (3-0) 20. Washington State 5-0 (2-0) 21. Liberty 5-0 22. Iowa State 4-1 (2-0) 23. Virginia Tech 4-1 (1-0) 24. Louisville 4-1 (2-1) 25. Oklahoma State 3-1 (0-1)

The Narrative

The Playoff race is crystalizing in the P5 conferences. #2 Clemson looks to have the ACC well in hand and #4 Oregon doesn’t appear to have a serious threat to their supremacy in the PAC-12. #1 Alabama is the frontrunner in the SEC, but of course that conference has way more teams in the hunt. The Big 12 looks like it’s going to be decided this week in the Red River Shootout between #3 Oklahoma and #6 Texas. The Big Ten is still a mess but either #10 Ohio State and #12 Iowa can build a credible Playoff case if they finish 12-1, problem is that those two are also playing this Saturday.

#7 Notre Dame of course can still go undefeated to take the spot in the top 4 and unseat whichever P5 champs lose along the way. The Irish have their first real test of the season as they host #19 Stanford.

With UCF’s defeat the previous week, the G5 race for the NY6 bid is starting to look much more wide open. #15 Cincinnati is the frontrunner, but the Bearcats have a harder schedule than non-AAC teams which may prove to be a great equalizer for the Sun Belt, who are seeking to have either unbeaten Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, or Troy in a major bowl.

The Games

With conference play fully under way, we’re starting to see more quality football games. We’ve got several consequential ranked vs ranked matchups this week, all of which have the possibility of impacting the Playoff race. Let’s see how it all played out.

Winning teams are highlighted in bold.

Akron at Kent State Miami OH at Bowling Green Ball State at Buffalo Eastern Michigan at Ohio Central Michigan at Northern Illinois Toledo at Western Michigan Air Force at San Jose State New Mexico at Colorado State San Diego State at Utah State Wyoming at UNLV Fresno State at #9 Texas A&M New Mexico State at Hawaii California at USC Oregon State at #17 Washington #19 Stanford at #7 Notre Dame Utah at #21 Washington State Colorado at Arizona UCLA at Arizona State #13 LSU at #5 Florida #8 Auburn at #11 Georgia Eastern Illinois at Kentucky Missouri at BYU Tennessee at South Carolina Ole Miss at Vanderbilt #1 Alabama at Arkansas Louisiana at Appalachian State Texas State at Troy Louisiana-Monroe at #21 Liberty Princeton at Army Maine at Connecticut Temple at Massachusetts East Carolina at South Florida Tulane at Houston #24 Louisville at Boston College #2 Clemson at Florida State Duke at NC State #16 Miami FL at Wake Forest #23 Virginia Tech at North Carolina #22 Iowa State at #25 Oklahoma State Kansas at Kansas State #3 Oklahoma vs #6 Texas (Dallas, TX) TCU at West Virginia Maryland at #14 Indiana Michigan at Michigan State #12 Iowa at #10 Ohio State Rutgers at Purdue Illinois at Nebraska Minnesota at Wisconsin Charlotte at North Texas Florida Atlantic at Southern Miss Middle Tennessee at FIU Marshall at Western Kentucky UTEP at Louisiana Tech UAB at Rice

There’s a lot to cover here. Firstly, the likely Playoff field all did survive. #1 Alabama humiliated Arkansas while #2 Clemson destroyed Florida State. #3 Oklahoma managed to squeeze past #6 Texas in OT and #4 Oregon had a bye. Right after the top 4 is when things immediately get weird. #5 Florida got upset at home by #13 LSU in a bizarre contest that saw a thrown shoe lead to a penalty that decided the game for the Tigers. #7 Notre Dame shut down #19 Stanford, putting the Fighting Irish closer to the Playoff. #11 Georgia beat #8 Auburn in Athens, ruining the Tigers’ undefeated season and likely ending any serious contention for the Playoff. The Bulldogs can absolutely still turn things around if they can beat Florida and win the East. Meanwhile in the Big Ten, #10 Ohio State was able to outpace #12 Iowa. With teams ahead of them in thepolls losing, the Buckeyes can sneak their way back into contention if they win out.

Outside of the immediate Playoff races, there was still a lot of intrigue around the leagues. The ACC Coastal just got blown wide open now that #16 Miami and #23 Virginia Tech took it on the chin over the weekend. Who knows how that division will play out? In the Big 12′s junior circuit, #25 Oklahoma State reasserted themselves with a win over #22 Iowa State. Until further notice the Cowboys still have a dark horse bid alive in the conference. The Big Ten is still seeing a lot of upheaval. Michigan has now fallen to 1-5 on the season with their loss to rival Michigan State. You wonder if Jim Harbaugh would have survived the season if this happened in real life.

The Group of 5 races didn’t have much going on this week. The conference frontrunners across all leagues won so things more or less stayed the same. Louisiana’s win at Appalachian State kept the Ragin’ Cajuns out of the loss column once again. Troy was able to beat Texas State while Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina had byes.

The Standings

Conference play is now finally starting to influence the standings. Things are taking shape!

The Big Picture

The Playoff race remains unchanged with #3 Oklahoma holding off #6 Texas. The Longhorns looked good enough to expect that we’ll see them back to face the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game. Perhaps if UT pulls it out they can make a claim for a Playoff spot as a 12-1 squad. Ohio State looks like they’re back in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten at least, they’ll be right there with the Horns trying to crash the party with one loss.

The G5 race was mostly on ice this week as the AAC and Sun Belt both had many squads off with byes.

The New Rankings

Week 7 AP Poll

1. Alabama 6-0 (3-0) 2. Clemson 6-0 (5-0) 3. Oklahoma 5-0 (2-0) 4. Oregon 5-0 (2-0) 5. Notre Dame 6-0 6. Texas A&M 6-0 (2-0) 7. Georgia 5-1 (1-1) 8. Texas 4-1 (1-1) 9. Ohio State 4-1 (2-0) 10. LSU 5-1 (2-0) 11. Auburn 5-1 (2-1) 12. Florida 5-1 (3-1) 13. Indiana 5-0 (2-0) 14. Cincinnati 5-0 (1-0) 15. Washington 4-1 (1-1) 16. Iowa 5-1 (2-1) 17. Penn State 4-1 (2-0) 18. Oklahoma State 4-1 (1-1) 19. Wake Forest 5-1 (2-0) 20. Liberty 6-0 21. Stanford 4-1 (3-0) 22. Boston College 5-1 (2-1) 23. Miami FL 5-1 (1-1) 24. Tulsa 4-1 (1-0) 25. Tennessee 4-2 (2-1)

We had a pretty big shakeup in the polls with all of the ranked vs ranked games going on. The Top 4 remains consistent for the fourth consecutive week but after that things get chaotic very quickly. Notre Dame and Texas A&M were able to take advantage of the upheaval and move up to the 5th and 6th spots respectively. Texas, Auburn, and Florida didn’t fall all that far given that they all lost to top flight opponents.

Towards the bottom of the polls we see the teams that fell out thanks to losses. Washington State, Iowa State, Virginia Tech, and Louisville all dropped out of the Top 25. They’ve been replaced by Wake Forest, Boston College, Tulsa, and Tennessee. The Vols being the first two-loss team and Tulsa is the first one-loss G5 team to make the polls this season.

Week 6 is in the books! Tune in soon to find out how the rest of the season plays out!

#college football #Alabama Crimson Tide #Clemson Tigers #Oklahoma Sooners #Oregon Ducks #Notre Dame Fighting Irish #Texas A&M Aggies #Georgia Bulldogs #Texas Longhorns #Ohio State Buckeyes #LSU Tigers #Utah Utes #Boston College Eagles #Wake Forest Demon Deacons #Oklahoma State Cowboys

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junker-town · 6 years ago

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New bowl projections, with 1 conference getting 2 teams in Playoff

Here are picks for all 40 bowl games, including the College Football Playoff.

While we wait for top-10 upsets to really start clarifying college football’s postseason picture, let’s try a weird scenario in the Playoff section of these bowl projections after Week 4.

Each week, I go through and update a board of projected winners for every FBS game, tally up records, and guess what the Playoff committee and bowl committees would do with the results. Things get closer and closer to eventual accuracy as Selection Sunday nears, but more importantly, it’s a little weekly fun.

Below, projections for all 40 2018 bowl games. A lot of these will change dramatically over the next 2.5 months, so if you don’t like where your team is listed, I bet a few wins on the field will change things!

The College Football Playoff

Cotton (Arlington, TX): No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Penn State

Orange (Miami): No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State

A scenario to try out:

Say Penn State beats Ohio State in Week 5, with home-field advantage, an extra day of rest, and an injured Nick Bosa. Say PSU, OSU, and Michigan each go 8-1 in the Big Ten, only losing to each other. After a long string of Big Ten tiebreakers, either UM or PSU would likely win the B1G East due to strength of schedule against West opponents. I have PSU by a nose.

So let’s say Penn State wins the Big Ten, Michigan finishes with two losses (including one to Notre Dame already), and Ohio State is — as seemingly always — on the committee bubble, this time without a division title.

Also at the moment, I have two losses each for the Pac-12 champ, the Big 12 champ, Notre Dame, and the SEC East champ. That’d leave a one-loss Ohio State at No. 4, right?

But we’ll try a new scenario next week. Maybe. On to the other bowls!

The rest of the New Year’s Six

Sugar (New Orleans): Oklahoma vs. Georgia

Rose (Pasadena, CA): Michigan vs. Washington

Peach (Atlanta): Miami vs. Notre Dame

Fiesta (Glendale, AZ): Boise State vs. Auburn

In this year’s rotation, most of these will be based on conference auto-bids, and then we’ll likely see whether the MWC or AAC champ takes the non-power spot. Due to geography, that’ll likely determine whether the mid-major goes to the Fiesta or Peach.

Sub in UCF for Boise State in your mind, if that would bring you good feelings. I might do the same soon.

Not entirely sold on Auburn or Miami here, since right now, I have a ton of teams floating right around 9-3. But the Canes’ path is looking lighter by the week, and the Tigers’ win over Washington still matters.

Everything else

Citrus (Orlando): Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

Outback (Tampa): Michigan State vs. Texas A&M

Gator (Jacksonville): Indiana vs. Missouri

Holiday (San Diego): Iowa vs. Stanford

Liberty (Memphis): Oklahoma State vs. LSU

Military (Annapolis, MD): Cincinnati vs. Duke

Sun (El Paso): Virginia Tech vs. Utah

Belk (Charlotte): Boston College vs. South Carolina

Alamo (San Antonio): Texas vs. Oregon

Arizona (Tucson): Fresno State vs. Coastal Carolina

Camping World (Orlando): NC State vs. West Virginia

Music City (Nashville): Virginia vs. Florida

Texas (Houston): TCU vs. Mississippi State

Pinstripe (New York City): Syracuse vs. Minnesota

Independence (Shreveport, LA): Pitt vs. Cal*

Cheez-It (Phoenix): Texas Tech vs. Arizona State

Quick Lane (Detroit): Army* vs. WMU*

SERVPRO (Dallas): Washington State* vs. North Texas

San Francisco Bowl: BYU* vs. USC

Hawaii: Marshall vs. Hawaii

Dollar General (Mobile): Ohio vs. Arkansas State

Armed Forces (Fort Worth): UCF vs. Baylor

Birmingham: Houston vs. Vanderbilt

Potato (Boise): EMU vs. Utah State

Bahamas: Southern Miss vs. Akron

Gasparilla (Tampa): USF vs. Wake Forest

Frisco (TX): Memphis vs. Toledo

Boca Raton: Navy vs. FAU

New Orleans: Louisiana Tech vs. Troy

Camellia (Montgomery, AL): Buffalo vs. Appalachian State

Las Vegas: San Diego State vs. Colorado

Cure (Orlando): Temple vs. Georgia Southern

New Mexico (Albuquerque): UAB vs. UNLV

* = Taking another conference’s unfilled bid.

As always, remember bowl bids are not necessarily based on merit. A few conferences have rules that prevent bowls from taking teams with clearly lesser records over more deserving teams, but bowls mostly care about one thing: butts in seats. If you beat a bigger program that’s closer to a bowl both of you want, you’re not guaranteed to get it.

I’m as surprised as you are to see Kentucky way up there in one of the SEC’s best bowls, but I had them at 8-4 even before they stomped out a quality Mississippi State. If it’s between a fired-up UK that’s just beaten Louisville and a couple really good SEC West teams without pretty records (LSU and A&M, probably), I’d guess the Citrus stays within its time zone.

Iowa-Stanford is a rematch of a recent bigger bowl, but I just realized that actually happens somewhat regularly.

Teams I couldn’t find room for this week: FIU, NIU, and Wyoming.

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