#so i wouldn't be shocked if he votes for trump in the end

[cementcornfield]

good lord my inbox is a mess lmao

[short-wooloo]

I've been seeing a lot of "Biden should abandon Israel entirely, if he doesn't he's going to lose/im not voting for him unless he does" posts/reblogs and I'm so sick of them

1. You pricks weren't going to get off your lazy asses and vote anyways, you don't give a damn, this is just a pathetic excuse

2. There are a number of reasons why Biden can't and shouldn't do that, like the fact that you don't just abandon longtime allies (trump did that with the Kurds), the fact that the US is not the only country who supports Israel, the fact that Israel has its own arms industry to support its needs (that is not to say Israel is completely self reliant, just that it is not wholly dependent on the US, shocking I know, turns out Israel is an independent country and not the 51st state), the fact that netanyahu would most assuredly seek out new patrons-probaby russia and china, the fact that pulling all support also removes any leverage or influence the US has over Israel

But they pale in comparison to one fact:

Abandoning Israel would absolutely be a losing move for Biden

See despite what the far lefties think, support for Israel is in fact the majority view of American citizens and politicians, it's one of the few things both sides can agree on, the difference is in how, and ending that support would invite a MASSIVE backlash, especially in an election year

It would splinter the Democrats, like I said, they do generally support Israel, but their support-unlike the republicans-has conditions and limits, they expect Israel to have restraint in its operations, casualties to be minimized, aid to go to civilians, and plans to be made for a free independent Palestine

And wouldn't you know it, that's what Biden's trying to do

So what do you think would happen if Biden were to abandon the position that the majority of his supporters/ party wants hmmmm?

Beyond that, the backlash from independents/centrists/and "moderate" republicans would be insane

See, most of those voters are people who don't like trump/the current state of the republican party, and are either going to vote for Biden/sit out of the election because they don't feel like supporting trump, but they still support Israel, so if Biden were to drop that entirely, these people would be PISSED OFF, they would swallow their misgivings and vote trump, speaking of...

If Biden announced "no more aid of any kind for Israel" today, then by this evening trump would announce that the first thing he'd do when back in office is send the most massive arms package imaginable to Israel

And he would win

Enough Democrats from Biden's base would be pissed at him and not vote, the centrists/independents/"moderate" republicans would decide aud for Israel is more important than stopping trump and vote for him, and the already fanatical republican base would really come out for trump on election day

So in addition to causing what could be the biggest landslide in modern election history and likely sending American democracy on a death spiral, Biden deciding to end all aid to Israel would end up helping netanyahu and hurting Palestine more in the long run

Yeah, so uh, Biden's not doing that

Welcome to realpolitik

[takeonmetakemeon]

I prefer the polling average from RealClearPolitics, so I like that they have a website dedicated to polls and I don't have to see the um interesting opinion articles they link to on their main site.

Here is the current trend. I note that the Vice President's advantage has inched upwards slightly but steadily over the past few weeks, but that is mostly due to the former President's declining numbers rather than an increase in support for her.

The percentage of Americans saying they prefer Donald Trump has declined fairly steadily since it peaked on July 28th. The percentage saying they prefer Kamala Harris peaked on August 22nd, but her advantage over the former president has increased since then because his numbers have declined more than hers.

The current trend: Harris steady, Trump declining

We will find out where his support will bottom out. Best case scenario for him is that it happens well before election day. Worst case is that he keeps declining until the election and continues declining afterward.

Given his declining numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump ends up getting 45% of the national vote while Harris gets 51%. That would probably give us an election map almost identical to 2020, with the only exception being North Carolina voting for Harris.

And I think that's a result most political experts would consider plausible based on current polls, even if it's not the most likely yet.

Given the current state of partisanship in the nation, anything less than 45% of the popular vote for Trump would be a shock, and anything less than 44% would be almost unthinkable, but he might have to get below 43% nationally to lose Texas or Florida and trigger a debate over whether the election was a landslide.

Or Harris would have to win over a bunch of pretty skeptical voters who don't like either party.

Both are hard to imagine as of today.

[shadowkat678]

Story time: something really cool happened coming home using Lyft today

Now. By now you should know I enjoy talking about issues, especially ones close to me and people I care about.I believe ignorance to be the root of most of our issues, and I enjoy teaching and spreading information. It's something I think is important and I'm not shy about it. Ask for my life story and I'll probably be happy to tell it and use it to inform, because I feel it's important to use what you know to help others.

Anyway, I got picked up by lyft, and it started with smalltalk. What are you doing in school? Oh, you're taking Spanish? I never managed to get through that. Never got a hang of studying and ended up failing in high school. Then it got to the weather, and I mentioned how there's a Muslim girl I always pass, and how I overheard her joking with her soaked non-Muslim friend about her hajab being a good umbrella in the rain. (Btw, I swear she has some of the cutest outfits. Like. I'm not always much for clothes but man she has some really cool fashion sense. 👍)

He got quite for a moment, and confessed he never really knew what to do when he picked up a girl who was Muslim. I won't lie and say I didn't brace for the worst, but then he went on to talk about how he never really got a chance to go to college and be around so many different people, and how he didn't want to end up accidentally offending anyone. He admitted he was still trying to fight his reaction to finding it strange with different cultures, and I brought up how I know a lot of different people on here I've talked to.

It continued on down the line. About how his grandmother when he was little wouldn't step foot in any store if she saw a black person inside, and how shocking it is with how diverse the area has grown. How he doesn't often get into politics, and how he really doesn't trust any politicians. Trump, Obama, Hillary, or anyone else, even though he still votes.

This was all cool, especially as I brought up some stuff he admitted he hadn't completely thought about. Then I bring up the idea of relating to others based on a experience with another potintal group you belong to, and we get on disability. Then, more specifically, autism. And here's where I feel really good about the ride.

You guys know how much we all talk to each other about minority representation mattering? Here's a real life example of why.

The initial reaction was one I've gotten used to by now. After making a joke I often use about people often seeming to think we should all be wearing matching uniforms as a means of identification, he admitted to being one of those who never would have thought I could be autistic. He never challenged me on it, or acted in any way like he thought I was faking. I explained to him the idea of the spectrum, and how it's not simply a straight line from autistic to nonautistic. I used examples from my childhood. How I started talking early and got a college astrology book for my fifth Christmas due to it having been a special interest, while at the same time being extremely naive, was bullied, and couldn't leave the house without ear plugs to cancel out noise. How I wasn't any better because I was considered "passing" and how many different autistic people just I personally have met.

He told me he never knew autistic people could read, or had seen, or at least was not aware of seeing, autistic adults. He mentioned bringing the past part up with his wife a week or so back after seeing a commercial on autism. And how he'd never seen anything besides "young white kids sitting in corners with that same bowl haircut". How that's all that's ever showed, and he never really stopped to considered there being so much variation.

He said some things that were a bit offensive, but he truly didn't know. A lot of people don't know about a lot of things. They don't research every issue that's going on. That doesn't make them bad.

The entire time he was so worried about coming across as offensive, since he knew he didn't know a lot on the topics I brought up. Yet he was listening and actively engaging the entire time. The full trip was about 30-40 minutes, and at the end as I was getting out, he was thanking me about talking with him. Personally, I don't think I should be thanked for that, because it's a natural thing I tend to do. It's something I'm engaged in and am fully happy to talk about. But it was eye opening for both of us, I think.

Logically I know there are people who aren't exposed much. I know there's ignorance. However, sometimes the level of it still can be shocking. He thought all autistics were nonverbal and couldn't read. When I told him about the nonverbal dependent people I've talk to on here he really was shocked he didn't know.

It was a reminder that we still have a ways to go, and some people truly are just ignorant. It doesn't make them bad. Just uninformed, and it's not their fault all the time. Which is why we really need to work for media exposure. We need awareness.

Knowledge is the key to solving so many issues. I think we're making progress. Today I feel like I helped to make a little more, and It really is a nice feeling.