#siena poll

[the-garbanzo-annex-jr]

by Daniel Greenfield

This spring, Schumer agreed to become the public face of the Biden administration’s campaign to bring down the Israeli government, save Hamas and end the war. In a high-profile Senate speech, the lifelong politician who had spent his career pretending to be pro-Israel, equated the Israeli government with Hamas, forbade Israel to go into Rafah to pursue the terror group, claimed that “the Israeli war campaign has killed so many innocent Palestinians” and warned that the Biden administration would use its “leverage” to create a terrorist state inside Israel.

While many pro-Israel figures excoriated Schumer, he trotted out his ‘rabbi’, Rachel Timoner, a radical leftist anti-Israel activist who had taken part in anti-Israel rallies, to defend his betrayal.

According to Timoner, Schumer said “what most of us think” and “what the overwhelming majority of American Jews are saying to each other”. However what Timoner was saying, according to T’ruah, one of the anti-Israel groups she was allied with, could be summed up as, “American Jews must tell our govt we oppose this war and want an end to the occupation.”

Was Schumer saying what most American Jews were really thinking?

Schumer’s latest Siena poll numbers in New York are in. And while his total unfavorable rating in the state is only up a few percent, his numbers among Jewish New Yorkers are catastrophic. With a 48% approval rating among New York Jews, his is only 3% higher than Trump’s at 45%. And his disapproval rating is higher than that of any other statewide figure in the poll. He now has a higher disapproval rating among Jews than among blacks, Latinos or protestants.

Those are stunning numbers and they show a sharp reversal of political fortune. They also help explain why the same poll shows that 46% of New York Jews would now vote for Trump.

A Siena poll that covered the pro-Hamas campus riots found that 87% of New York Jews believed that they had crossed the line into antisemitism and 80% supported calling in the cops.

This is completely at odds with the messaging that has come from Timoner and the infrastructure of allied anti-Israel astroturf groups like J Street, T’ruah, Bend the Arc, New York Jewish Agenda, Jewish Voice for Peace, If Not Now, and Jews for Racial and Economic Justice which receive nonstop coverage from a media that pretends these extremists represent Jews.

The views of New York Jews are not actually reflective of those pushed by the JTA, The Forward and other anti-Israel leftist narrative outlets and Sen. Schumer is now paying the price.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Erin Reed at Erin In The Morning:

According to a New York Times/Siena battleground state poll, voters in the battleground states of Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin overwhelmingly believe that society should accept transgender people as the gender they identify with. These same voters also support Democratic Senate candidates in these states, despite tens of millions of dollars spent on anti-trans advertisements targeting them. This data raises doubts about the effectiveness of such ads in swaying voters toward Republicans, as similar efforts have failed in the past. The numbers come at a time when national anti-trans ad campaigns are being launched, aimed at Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris. According to the latest New York Times/Siena poll in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, 56% of voters agreed with the statement, "Society should accept transgender people as having the gender they identify with," while 34% agreed with the statement, "Society should NOT accept transgender people as having the gender they identify with." Support for transgender acceptance was even higher among women (64% to 28%) and Independents (58% to 28%). Even rural and small-town voters in battleground states indicated, by a narrow margin (45% to 43%), that transgender people should be accepted as their identified gender, indicating that assumptions about small towns in battleground states could be challenged as acceptance continues to improve.

[...] The polls come amidst news that Republicans have gone all-in on anti-transgender advertising in the past month. In September, one of the most prolific Republican Senate super PACs, the Senate Leadership Fund, announced it would spend $80 million in Ohio alone, far surpassing anti-trans ad spending in previous years. The majority of these ads target the aforementioned senators on transgender issues. For example, one ad in Wisconsin claims, “Tammy Baldwin supported puberty blockers and sex change surgeries for kids, and would force women’s shelters to admit biological men. She’s too extreme for Wisconsin.” Another ad targets Sherrod Brown, stating, “Sherrod Brown supported allowing sex change surgeries for kids.” The group has produced nearly 40 anti-transgender ads in battleground states and tight Senate races, including Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, with some readers reporting hearing the ads very often in those states.

Republicans have also launched national anti-trans advertisements targeting Kamala Harris. The Trump campaign has released a new ad titled “Kamala is for They/Them,” which highlights Harris’s purported support for gender-affirming care for incarcerated transgender individuals. Reports from readers suggest these ads are airing during football games nationwide, signaling that the Trump campaign is doubling down on an anti-transgender platform, hoping it will deliver a political advantage in the upcoming election.

[...] Polling on specific transgender issues—such as sports participation and gender-affirming care for youth—often varies widely depending on how questions are framed. However, a few constants have emerged across nearly all polls. People generally see the issue as low in importance and believe it does not impact their daily lives, ranking LGBTQ+/Trans issues among the lowest issues of importance to their vote and calling them a distraction in recent polls. While many have personal opinions about transgender care for youth, most do not want politicians legislating it, preferring that these decisions be left to parents and families. Additionally, there is growing opposition to outright bans on transgender care for youth, as seen in the latest Gallup poll.

A NYT/Siena College poll of 3 critical swing states for the Senate (2 for the Presidency) of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio conducted between September 21st and 26th reveals that a majority of voters believe society should accept trans people as their gender.

[bridgertontournaments]

Bridgerton Character Tournament : Round 1 Match 11

[sienarossosource]

In honor of Bridgerton Gay Week, what's your favorite sapphic ship for Siena?

Please vote! (maybe i'll also make a gifset for the winning ship :D)

[catholic-saint-tournament]

About St Joseph

About St Catherine of Siena

Losers' Bracket Round 2

[in-sightjournal]

Ask A Genius 979: The Never-Book "Dumbass Genius"

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: A question from someone else: When is your book coming out? Rick Rosner: Yeah, well, I don’t have an autobiography coming out. I semi-abandoned that. It’s still there if somebody wants to pay me to write it. But before that book comes out, I’m writing this other book that’s a more fictionalized version of what it’s like to be competent in the world with a whole different…

[calicojack1718]

Unskewing the Polls: Decoding the Deceptive Polling Numbers of Election 2024

All of the polls seem to have Trump leading Biden both nationally and in swing states. How can that be? Does no one remember the debacle of the Trump years? Can their be some systematic error in the polling? Can science explain it? Yes, it can.

SUMMARY: Election 2024 presidential polling has Trump beating Biden nationwide and in swing states. Let’s take a closer look at that polling data and use social trust to decipher some of the more confounding results. Then, we’ll use protests and past voting behavior to predict who will turn out in 2024. The roll of cognitive dissonance and irrevocable actions will be used to analyze who is…

[filosofablogger]

Polls Schmolls!!!

I thought we learned our lesson about political polls back in 2016 when nearly all the polls had Hillary Clinton winning the presidential race.  Well, technically she did win with nearly 3 million more votes than Trump, but  due to gerrymandered districts, etc., that all-important Electoral College said otherwise and the polls were proven wrong.  Two years ago the polls predicted a “red wave” … a…

[saint-sebastians-abs]

introducing:

examples of works below the cut

PIETRO

stigmatization of st. francis, basilica of san francesco at assisi

birth of the virgin altarpiece for siena duomo

last supper, basilica of san francesco at assisi

madonna of castiglione d’orcia

AMBROGIO

annunciation

maestà

madonna del latte

effects of good government on the city, palazzo pubblico, siena

allegory of good government (detail), palazzo pubblico, siena

[probablyasocialecologist]

A new poll has found that young Americans' favourable views of Israel have fallen by more than 25 percent over the past year, amid Israel's war on Gaza that began in October. The Gallup poll published on Monday found that 64 percent of young adults between the ages of 18-34 had favourable views of Israel in 2023. That percentage dropped to 38 percent in 2024 - a fall of 26 percent. The same group's favourable views towards the Palestinian Authority dipped only slightly, from 36 percent to 32 percent. Overall, among all US adults polled, the positive views held about Israel still dropped significantly over the past year. In 2023, 68 percent of all adults polled by Gallup held favourable views of Israel, while in 2024 that figure dropped to 58 percent.

[...]

The Gallup poll had further found that among the group of young Americans aged 18-34, 45 percent of them sympathise more with Palestinians, while 37 percent sympathise with Israel. Over the past two decades, Israel has received largely favourable sentiments in the US. However, in the last several years polls have shown a slight shift in those views, with more Americans expressing sympathy with Palestinians. Several polls over the past few months have found more Americans having critical views of Israel's treatment of Palestinians both in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. The Wall Street Journal reported a poll on Sunday stating that a plurality of voters believe Israel has "gone too far" in its response to the 7 October attacks. A December poll from The New York Times/Siena College found that half of young Americans believe Israel is intentionally killing civilians in Gaza. And a January poll from the Economist found that 35 percent of Americans believe Israel is committing a genocide against Palestinians.

[diggoverse]

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[justinspoliticalcorner]

Robert Tait at The Guardian:

Democrats are increasingly worried that pollsters are undercounting Donald Trump’s voter support, rating his prospects of winning November’s presidential election as much higher than headline opinion polling figures suggest.

While most national surveys show consistent, though moderate, leads for Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, some supporters are unnerved by the small margin of her advantage in three northern battlegrounds – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – which are deemed must-wins in her quest for the White House. Although some polls have shown the vice-president with leads of between four and six points in Pennsylvania – generally judged the most important swing state – others show Trump trailing by smaller deficits. Narrower gaps separate the two in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Harris’s lead is just 1 or 2%, according to several different recent polls. Underpinning Democrats’ fears is the knowledge that Trump greatly out-performed predictions in all three states in 2016, when he narrowly won them en route to his election triumph over Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, when he was pipped by Joe Biden by far smaller margins than forecast.

The worries are compounded by the latest New York Times/Siena poll, which records Trump performing more robustly in three Sun belt battleground states – Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina – than he has in weeks. The survey shows the Republican nominee leading by five points – 50 to 45% – in Arizona, which Biden won by just over 10,000 votes in 2020, and four points – 49 to 45% – in Georgia, which was won by the president by a similar margin. In North Carolina, where Trump is trying to avoid being tarred by revelations over past comments by Mark Robinson, the GOP’s candidate for governor, he has a smaller advantage, 49 to 47%.

Putting the Democrats’ worries into perspective are projections showing that Trump will win all seven designated battleground states – the seventh being Nevada – if he outstrips polling predictions by the same margins he achieved in losing the 2020 election. A separate projection by Focaldata – using a model that takes into account different demographic factors in determining the likelihood that certain cohorts will vote – reduces Harris’s lead by an average of 2.4% across swing states.

This is still a worry for us Democrats: Polls may be undercounting Trump support yet again.

In any case, volunteer and donate to your favorite candidate(s).

[socialistexan]

This is from the latest Siena College NYT poll, which is an incredibly solid poll with a good track record.

The only group Kamala Harris isn't more popular than Biden with is voters over 65 and non-college educated white men. That's it.

If you look at the raw percentages you can see that the total percentage of voters is higher, 30 to 44 goes from 92% decided to 95% for example.

So a lot of the gains Harris gets aren't from from people switching from Trump (though there are some), a lot of that is motivating either undecided or 3rd party voters to come over it her or from unmotivated voters who were turned away by Biden to show up.

It would still be tight, but Harris is running from a place where she can grow rather than be in a constant defensive position with way fewer question marks.

[dhaaruni]

How did the polls get worse from 2016 to 2020, with everyone watching? In the aftermath of Trump’s surprise 2016 victory, the public-opinion-research industry concluded that the problem was educational polarization. If pollsters had made a point of including enough white people without college degrees in their samples, they wouldn’t have underestimated Trump so badly. During the 2020 cycle, they focused on correcting that mistake. It didn’t work. Even though polls in 2020 included more white non-college-educated voters, they turned out to be disproportionately the white non-college-educated voters who preferred Biden. The new consensus is that Republican voters are less likely to respond to polls in the first place, even controlling for education level. (To put it more nerdily, partisan preference correlates independently with willingness to take a poll, at least when Trump is on the ballot.) Don Levy, the director of the Siena College Research Institute, which conducts polls on behalf of The New York Times, calls the phenomenon “anti-establishment response bias.” The more someone distrusts mainstream institutions, including the media and pollsters, the more likely they are to vote for Trump.

[catholic-saint-tournament]

About St Kateri Tekakwitha (left)

About St Catherine of Siena (right)

POST-SCHISM SAINTS ROUND 1 WINNERS/ROUND 2 BRACKET

[lgbridgertonqa]

The Great Queer Bridgerton Ship Poll: THE RESULTS!!!

First off, we’d just like to thank everyone for taking part in this silliness. We clocked in at 204,232 votes when we closed the poll with votes still coming in. Deeply unserious, we’re very touched.

That being said this is also VERY serious. Lives are at stake.

Onto the numbers for places (under the cut - cos it's LONG!)

Or read the results thread here on our twitter.

31. Daphne Bridgerton/Alice Mondrich - 0 votes (0.00%)

Sorry girls!

29 =. Colin Bridgerton/Harry Dankworth - 1 vote (0.0005%)

The Danklin nation were not assembled for this fight. One noble voter stood proud!

29 =. Harry Dankworth/Lord Fife - 1 vote (0.0005%)

The vote is entirely anonymous so we will never know who this one brave soul was that swung for the only Fife ship in the poll. It will ever remain a mystery…

23 = . Siena Rosso/Mme Delacroix - 2 votes (0.0010%)

Maybe next time, ladies.

23 = . Violet Bridgerton/Portia Featherington - 2 votes (0.0010%)

The Mama’s did not do it for the voters.

23 = . Mary Sharma/Queen Charlotte - 2 votes (0.0010%)

Not enough follow through on this tension to capture more votes.

23 = . Mme Delacroix/Lucy Granville - 2 votes (0.0010%)

The girls are taking a hit in the polls.

23 = . Gregory Bridgerton/Richard Abernathy - 2 votes (0.0010%)

Our first book character on the list! He fought valiantly.

23 = . Lord Haselby/Neville Berbrooke - 2 votes (0.0010%)

This niche book only fanon couple did this against all odds. Respect!

20 =. Kate Sharma/Sophie Beckett - 4 votes (0.0020%)

A previous fan favourite has slipped down the rankings in this poll!

20 = . Eloise Bridgerton/Edwina Sharma - 4 votes (0.0020%)

A similarly previously popular ship has fallen on hard times this year!

20 =. Will Mondrich/Simon Basset - 4 votes (0.0020%)

MIA since season 1, but sorely missed.

19. Hyacinth Bridgerton/Felicity Featherington - 5 votes (0.0024%)

The show may have forgotten you Felicity, but voters haven’t

18 =. Queen Charlotte/Lady Danbury - 6 votes (0.0029%)

Too many people afraid of the power of these two women kissing.

18 =. Anthony Bridgerton/Thomas Dorset - 6 votes (0.0029%)

Apparently two men holding each other and falling into a lake isn’t homoerotic enough for some.

16. Lucy Abernathy/Hermione Watson - 9 votes (0.0044%)

Another book ship taking on show giants.

15. Eloise Bridgerton/Marina Thompson - 11 votes (0.0054%)

Some people hate to see lesbians winning!

14. Brimsley/Reynolds - 38 votes (0.0186%)

Our first canon queer ship taking a hit! Only scraping top 15!

13. Francesca Bridgerton/Edwina Sharma - 96 votes (0.047%)

The votes are starting to pick up now with this outside contender!

12. Daphne Bridgerton/Cressida Cowper - 211 votes (0.1033%)

A very respectable 12th place for Daphida!

11. Eloise Bridgerton/Penelope Featherington - 236 votes (0.1156%)

A perhaps shock result to not crack the top ten!

10. Gregory Bridgerton/Gareth St. Clair - 403 votes (0.1973%)

Huge result for a book character not yet in the show! Top ten!

9. Colin Bridgerton/Michael Stirling - 636 votes (0.3114%)

A now book based pair on the shortlist from last year, coming into the top ten as an underdog!

8. Francesca Bridgerton/Michaela Stirling - 677 votes (0.3315%)

Michaela Stirling didn’t throw the first brick at Stonewall for 8th place.

7. Simon Basset/Anthony Bridgerton - 737 votes (0.3609%)

Homoerotic tension legendary enough that it brought this show into infamy. You’ve served proudly, kings

6. Francesca Bridgerton/Penelope Featherington - 970 votes (0.475%)

Another outsider in the top 10! The Fran/Pen shooters were not messing around!

5. Colin Bridgerton/Phillip Crane - 1,052 votes (0.5151%)

One olive oil joke and discussions about Ancient Greece, next thing you know -

4. Benedict Bridgerton/Paul Suarez - 1,713 votes (0.8388%)

Congrats on all the sex you had boys! It translated into votes!

3. Kate Sharma/Daphne Bridgerton - 15,911 votes (7.7906%)

Kaphne were leading the way for 5 days this week, only to be pipped to the post in the last few days. Well done on bronze!

2. Benedict Bridgerton/Henry Granville - 84,285 votes (41.2692%)

Voters gave it their all in the last 24 hours, but ultimately couldn’t take the win. A very worthy silver!

1. Eloise Bridgerton/Cressida Cowper - 97,204 votes (47.5949%)

Unreal rush at the end, nearly breaking the poll. The sapphics take the crown of Best Queer Bridgerton Ship!