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theconservativebrief · 6 years ago

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All eyes are on a critical special election in Ohio’s 12th District as voters in five states head to the polls on Tuesday.

The Ohio race is the last planned special election ahead of the midterms this fall, and it’s widely considered a key bellwether for Democratic efforts to spur a possible “blue wave.” Republicans are keen to avoid a repeat of the Pennsylvania 18th special election earlier this year, when Democrat Conor Lamb pulled off a narrow upset in a district that Trump won by 20 percentage points in 2016.

Trump and Vice President Mike Pence are among the Republican leaders who have waded into the race to ensure that the GOP candidate — state Sen. Troy Balderson — and the broader party, walks away with a win on Tuesday.

Polls suggest however, that Democratic candidate Danny O’Connor has a real shot of flipping the district — which Cook Political Report considers less conservative than Pennsylvania’s 18th in several ways. If Democrats win here, it’s likely that energy will only further buoy their efforts to retake the House in the coming months — an outcome Republicans are eager to prevent.

Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, and Washington are holding primary races as well. Live results, powered by Decision Desk, are below.

Ohio

A Democrat has a good shot at winning in a special election Tuesday in an Ohio congressional district surrounding Columbus that hasn’t elected a Democrat since the 1980s.

Danny O’Connor is running against Republican Troy Balderson to replace retiring Rep. Patrick Tiberi in Ohio’s wealthiest congressional district. So far, polling has the race in a dead heat, and Trump campaigned for Balderson in the days before the special election, a sign of GOP concerns about the race.

The 12th, covering parts of suburban Columbus as well as Appalachian areas, always sends a Republican to Congress. Trump won the 12th by 9 points in 2016. Cook ranks it as R+7.

But this district is a little better educated than Ohio as a whole, which might favor Democrats, and O’Connor has positioned himself to have a fighting chance. Recent polls have found him trailing by just a point or two, and the Democratic campaign feels good about the early voting numbers they’ve seen.

Given the overall environment, and Democratic performances in prior special elections, election forecasters like Cook have rated the 12th special election as a toss-up.

Michigan

Republican Gov. Rick Snyder is retiring with dismal approval ratings during the Flint water crisis. In a recent NBC/Marist survey of the GOP primary, Attorney General Bill Schuette (36 percent) had built a decent lead over Lt. Gov. Brian Calley (26 percent), with lots of voters undecided.

On the Democratic side, former state Senate Democratic leader Gretchen Whitmer has narrowly led in the polling. She looks like the slight favorite, while prominent progressives like Alexandria Oscaio-Cortez are trying push Abdul El-Sayed to an upset victory.

Both parties still need to get through their August primaries, but NBC/Marist polled a hypothetical general election matchup with the leading candidates and found Whitmer leading Schuette 47 percent to 38 percent. Cook Political Report thinks the governor’s race is a toss-up.

Executive and veteran John James and Sandy Pensler, an executive and Yale economics lecturer, are considered the Republican frontrunners. Polls have shown James, one of the few black Republicans in big races this year, with a slight but persistent lead.

Stabenow should be fine; polls put her up by a lot over her potential challengers. Cook puts this in the Likely Democratic camp.

Four Democrats are on the ballot. Matt Longjohn, a former YMCA and public health official, has raised a lot of money and might have the most compelling story, having jumped into the race after Rep. Fred Upton’s vote for Obamacare repeal legislation. David Benac is a Western Michigan history professor trying to run as a grassroots candidate. Rich Eichholz is a scientist arguing for evidence-based policy. George Franklin, a former Kellogg lobbyist also raising a lot of money, rounds out the field.

The Sixth, like the First, is more of a long shot for Democrats. Cook has it as Likely Republican and rates the district as R+4. Upton is an entrenched incumbent.

But Trump’s margin of victory was narrower here — 8 points — and the district has elected the more moderate Upton for decades. It seems at least conceivable that an anti-Trump wave could sweep him out of office, if Democrats successfully tie him to the president. But the wave would probably need to be significant.

Gretchen Driskell was put on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue list, meaning Washington Democrats like what they’ve seen from her campaign. She comes from a Navy family and has served as a mayor and now in the state legislature. She has run here before, having lost to Rep. Tim Walberg in 2016 by 15 points.

Her only competition on the ballot is Steven Friday, running as a self-identified “Berniecrat.”

This is another Likely Republican district; according to Cook, it’s R+7. Trump won by 17 points, and the district is very white and not particularly well educated.

But the Seventh District has swung in prior wave elections (see 2008 and 2010), and Driskell profiles as the kind of candidate Democrats think can compete in areas like the Seventh. Her 2016 loss to Walberg was actually a little narrower than Clinton’s, too, if you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic about her chances.

Elissa Slotkin is another name on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list. She is a former CIA officer who worked on the White House National Security Council under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. She definitely has the look that Democrats like for these swing districts: a history of military and public service. Women are also cleaning up in Democratic primaries, as Vox has documented.

Her only competition is Chris Smith, a Michigan State University public policy professor running on good government and Medicare-for-all.

The Eighth is a toss-up, according to Cook, and the district is just R+4. Clinton lost to Trump by less than 7 points here in 2016. The district covers an area near Lansing, the state capital, and its constituents are a little better educated — all ingredients that could give Democrats an edge.

Rep. David Trott is retiring, so it’s an open seat. The GOP primary is very competitive, with a lot of credible candidates. Among them are former US Rep. Kerry Bentivolio and several state lawmakers: Sen. Mike Kowall, Rep. Klint Kesto, and former Rep. Rocky Raczkowski. Self-funding business executive Lena Epstein rounds out the field for Republicans.

It’s also a wide-open field for the Democrats. Suneel Gupta, brother of doctor and CNN personality Sanjay Gupta, has the most money. Former Obama auto rescue official Haley Stevens has some union support and Hillary Clinton’s endorsement. Fayrouz Saad is angling to be the first Muslim woman elected to Congress, and she received the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsement. Current Michigan Rep. Tim Greimel is also on the ballot.

The 11th looks like a toss-up. Trump beat Clinton by just 4 points here, and the district profiles as R+4. It’s pretty diverse and very well educated.

Having no incumbent could be an advantage for Democrats, but it’s hard to know exactly how the race will look until we see who wins the primaries on Tuesday. But the 11th should be a focus for both parties in the battle for the House.

Rep. John Conyers retired after sexual harassment allegations. His successor will be picked in this Democratic primary, barring something unforeseen.

His great-nephew, state Sen. Ian Conyers, is running. So is Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones. She is the subject of a strong campaign to elect an African-American woman for this city district.

Westland Mayor Bill Wild and left-wing former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib make up the rest of the field, with Talib raising a lot of money and both running progressive platforms. Because of a Michigan election law quirk, there will be in November both a special election to fill the last few months of Conyers’s term, then a regular election for the term starting in 2019.

Whoever wins the primary will be the next representative for this 57 percent black district.

Missouri

Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley is the favorite in a massive field of 11 Republican primary candidates. The state’s Republican Party effectively granted Hawley the nomination when it gave the Republican National Committee the go-ahead to spend money backing Hawley’s campaign before he had even won the primary.

If Hawley prevails, he will likely face two-term Sen. Claire McCaskill, one of the Senate’s most vulnerable Democrats but with an independent streak. McCaskill has some competition in the Democratic primary, but her real focus is on Hawley. You can read more in Vox’s explainer.

McCaskill has faced Republican challenges in 2006 and 2012 — and prevailed each time. But 2018 is expected to be close in the general election, with polls vacillating between the two candidates.

Five Democrats are competing on Tuesday to see who will challenge Republican Rep. Ann Wagner, in office since 2013. Wagner also has a primary challenge from a relatively unknown candidate named Noga Sachs, but in all likelihood, Wagner will win.

Out of the crowded field of Democrats, the frontrunners appear to be attorney Cort VanOstran and Army veteran Mark Osmack. VanOstran has the most campaign cash, but Osmack is also fundraising and has endorsements from VoteVets and politicians including Sen. Tammy Duckworth and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (both veterans). Osmack is positioning himself as the progressive choice, running on a platform that includes Medicare-for-all, while VanOstran supports shoring up the Affordable Care Act.

Cook rates the district R+8, but if Democrats can field the right candidate and the blue wave ends up materializing, this conservative Missouri district has a chance of becoming blue.

In addition to key races, Missouri voters across the state will vote on Proposition A, a ballot question that will decide whether to keep or scrap the state’s current right-to-work law.

Right-to-work laws allow workers to be in a bargaining unit without having to pay dues to the union; it’s a conservative initiative that many GOP-controlled state legislatures have passed in recent years. Organized labor groups say the laws are tantamount to union-busting and are just another way to weaken unions.

The Missouri legislature passed a right-to-work bill last year, and it was signed into law by former Gov. Eric Greitens, but labor groups stopped it from going into effect with a petition to put the measure on the ballot and let the voters decide.

Voting in favor of Proposition A would keep right-to-work in the state; voting against it would repeal the measure. If voters reject the measure, it would be a major victory for unions.

Kansas

Current Gov. Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Kris Kobach are leading the pack of Republicans for governor. Jim Barnett and Ken Selzer are also part of a larger group that will be on the ballot.

Colyer — who took over the governor’s position after Sam Brownback became ambassador at large for international religious freedom earlier this year — has painted himself as the more low-key alternative to Kobach, whose close ties to Trump and broader controversy precede him. Kobach has long been known for touting hardline anti-illegal immigration policies and is among those most associated with the president’s theories on voter fraud, having led Trump’s election commission.

Several Democrats are competing for their party’s nomination. Former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, state Sen. Laura Kelly, and former state Secretary of Agriculture Josh Svaty are among the contenders.

Kelly is seen as the leading candidate given her strong fundraising numbers, though she’s recently been snared in a controversy over a vote supporting voter ID laws. Kelly was recruited to the race by former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

Cook Political Report rates the race as Likely Republican.

There are a lot of Republicans competing in this district, including state Sens. Steve Fitzgerald, Dennis Pyle, and Caryn Tyson, state Rep. Kevin Jones, and former state Rep. Doug Mays. Rounding out the list are Basehor City Council member Vernon Fields and Army vet Steve Watkins. Throughout the primary election, there’s been no clear frontrunner in the bunch.

Whoever wins will face off against former state Rep. Paul Davis, who unsuccessfully ran for governor against former Republican Gov. Sam Brownback in 2014.

Cook Political Report rates this district R+10, but if Democrats are hoping to flip a House seat in conservative Kansas, this may be their best shot. Davis has already far outraised all of the Republican candidates, has the backing of the DCCC, and is saving all of his money for his general election competitor.

There are seven Democrats running in this primary, but four names stand out: mixed martial arts fighter Sharice Davids, former Bernie Sanders staffer Brent Welder, teacher Tom Niermann, and business leader Sylvia Williams.

The winner will compete against incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder, in office since 2011 (Yoder isn’t facing a primary challenger).

Welder, in particular, is looking to test the theory of whether a Sanders-style progressive can win a primary in a conservative state. Cook rates the district R+4, and it also went for Clinton in 2016, so there’s a definite chance it could flip this year.

Washington

Washington state has a top-two primary system, which means Democratic and Republican candidates are on the primary ballot together. The top two vote-getters will face off in the November general election.

This historically conservative district is among those that Democrats are trying to flip this cycle, although incumbent Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler has swept her reelection races by double digits in the past. Washington State University professor Carolyn Long has garnered the backing of national groups like Emily’s List and is seen as the Democratic frontrunner.

While the district went for Trump by 8 points, Cook Political Report downgraded the district from Solid Republican to Likely Republican this past spring, suggesting that Democrats might have more of a fighting chance. Earlier this year, Long released an internal poll that indicated she is within 5 percentage points of Beutler.

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a Republican leader in the House, is facing one of the toughest reelection fights of her career.

While it’s uncommon for Republican leaders like McMorris Rodgers to lose their bids for reelection, it’s not without precedent. Democrats think momentum could be on their side: Trump captured a little more than 52 percent of the vote in the district in 2016, and constituents have hammered McMorris Rodgers for hewing too close to the president.

The Cook Political Report has shifted its rating on the eastern Washington district from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, though polls suggest that McMorris Rodgers maintains a slim lead over challenger Lisa Brown, a former state Senate majority leader.

Democrats see incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert’s retirement as a potential opportunity to capture the district, which Cook rates as a toss-up.

The district is also one of more than 20 held by Republicans that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Interestingly, it’s backed Democratic presidential candidates for numerous races in the past, while favoring Republicans for the House seat.

An expansive field of candidates including pediatrician Kim Schrier, former prosecutor Jason Rittereiser, and doctor Shannon Hader has emerged, each lining up for the chance to turn the district blue. The Republican frontrunner is former state Sen. Dino Rossi, who’s previously mounted failed bids for a Senate seat and the governorship.

Original Source -> August 7 primary: live results for Ohio, Michigan, Kansas, Missouri, and Washington

via The Conservative Brief

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hiphoprepublicansworld · 6 years ago

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...John is strong on crime and borders, loves our Military, our Vets and our Second Amendment. He will be a star. He has my full and total Endorsement! -Tweeted President Donald J. Trump (POLITICS It's all about U.S. Senate & Primary Statewide ELECTIONS. Michigan is TUESDAY August 7th.) NYTimes.com -John James, Black and Republican, Thinks He Can Crack the ‘Blue Wall’ in Michigan #WashingtonDCTheBestRealityShowonTV #HipHopRepublicans #Embargo presents Mr. James, 37, is a West Point graduate who spent eight years in the Army. He is the president of his family-run business. And he wants to become a senator. Nowhere on anyone’s handicapping lists of tossup Senate races will you find Michigan. And nowhere on the roster of A-list Republican challengers would you have found John James. Until last week. With two tweets and his caps lock on, President Trump endorsed Mr. James in the Michigan Republican primary — “SPECTACULAR!” — giving the underdog campaign a jolt just before voters head to the polls on Tuesday. Now Mr. James hopes he will get the chance to pull off in the general election what he has done in the primary: turn a lopsided race into a very close contest. It will be difficult — assuming he even makes it out of the primary. His opponent, Sandy Pensler, has been campaigning with the confidence of a front-runner. Mr. Pensler has more money and boasts credentials that include running his own private equity firm and teaching economics at Harvard and Yale. Come November, the Republican nominee will have to face Senator Debbie Stabenow, a three-term incumbent who won her last re-election by 20 points. But Mr. James, 37, is a standout. He is a West Point graduate who spent eight years in the Army, including service in Iraq. He is the president of his family-run business, a global provider of logistics support for Fortune 500 companies. He is also black, a rarity in his party today. The Senate has only one black Republican, Tim Scott of South Carolina. #NewYorkCity #Boston #Chicago #Miami #Atlanta #Philadelphia #Pittsburgh #Cleveland #Columbus #Charlotte #Orlando #WashingtonDC #Baltimore #Detroit #StLouis #Lowell #Springfield #Lawrence #Holyoke (at Lowell, Massachusetts)

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nbntv-blog · 6 years ago

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Trump backs 'spectacular' John James in Michigan Senate primary

Trump backs ‘spectacular’ John James in Michigan Senate primary

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President Donald Trump on Friday endorsed John James in Michigan’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, calling him a “spectacular” candidate with “such great potential.”

The 37-year-old African-American business executive and Iraq War helicopter pilot is running against detergent manufacturer Sandy Pensler in the Aug. 7 contest. The winner will advance to face third-term…

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politicalert-blog · 6 years ago

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Voters lean toward Democrats in three key swing states ahead of midterm elections, recent poll finds

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All three states will hold their primaries next month.

In Michigan, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a three-term incumbent Democrat, is expected to easily win her party’s nomination to run for re-election in November. She faces the winner of the Republican primary, where Army veteran John James faces venture capitalist Sandy Pensler.

Trump won the state by a slim margin in 2016, the first…

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#ahead #Democrats #elections #finds #key #lean #midterm #Poll #States #Swing #Voters

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democratsunited-blog · 6 years ago

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Poll shows Walker trailing Democrat by double-digits in Wisconsin

https://uniteddemocrats.net/?p=6811

Poll shows Walker trailing Democrat by double-digits in Wisconsin

The results are sharply more negative for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker than the most recent Marquette University poll of the governor’s race in June. | Scott Olson/Getty Images

A new poll from NBC News and Marist College shows Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker trailing a Democratic challenger by double-digits, part of a raft of rough results for Republicans across three Midwestern states.

The poll showed Wisconsin state education superintendent Tony Evers, the Democratic primary front-runner, taking 54 percent to Walker’s 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Walker has warned for months that Republicans need to be active and vigilant as he runs for a third term, with Democrats winning a series of down-ballot elections in Wisconsin earlier this year.

Story Continued Below

But Democrats have had to grapple with a crowded Democratic primary field that at one point included more than a dozen candidates, but which has shrunk to eight ahead of the Aug. 14 primary. Evers has consistently polled at the front of the Democratic field.

The results are sharply more negative for Walker than the most recent Marquette University poll of the governor’s race in June, which showed Walker narrowly ahead of Evers, 48 percent to 44 percent.

NBC and Marist also surveyed the governor’s races in Michigan and Minnesota, with the results showing Democrats in commanding positions in both open races.

In Michigan, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, the front-runner in her party’s gubernatorial primary, led Republican primary front-runner Bill Schuette in a general election matchup, 47 percent to 38 percent.

By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.

In Minnesota, former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty trails Democrats Lori Swanson and Tim Walz, the two top candidates in their primary. The poll shows both Democrats getting 51 percent support to Pawlenty’s 40 percent.

Democrats also performed well on the Senate ballot in all three states polled. In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin held a substantial lead over both potential Republican challengers. She led businessman Kevin Nicholson by 15 percentage points among registered voters, and led state Sen. Leah Vukmir by 17 percentage points.

Nicholson and Vukmir were neck and neck in the Republican primary, according to the poll, which echoed recent findings from Marquette University and other polling outfits.

In the Michigan Senate race, incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow topped both potential Republicans challengers by double-digits. Stabenow led John James by 18 percentage points, and led Sandy Pensler by 15 percentage points.

And in the Minnesota race, Democratic Sen. Tina Smith — who replaced former Sen. Al Franken in January — led Republican Karin Housley 49 percent to 35 percent.

In Wisconsin, the poll surveyed 906 registered voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the general election. In Minnesota, the poll surveyed 876 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In Michigan, the poll surveyed 886 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

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cashutters50309 · 7 years ago

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How Women Could Lose Senate Seats in the Latest Year of the Woman

How Women Could Lose Senate Seats in the Latest Year of the Woman By Leah Askarinam

Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith’s appointment in Mississippi will bring the number of women in the U.S. Senate to 23, the largest in U.S. history. While there’s room for that number to grow in the November midterm elections, with a handful of women in both parties running in competitive seats, it’s also possible for the number of women in the Senate to drop.

More than half of the women in the Senate are up for re-election this year—11 Democrats and two Republicans. And given the current Senate map, along with the pool of challengers and incumbents, the number of women in the Senate could grow by three, but could also drop by five to just 18.

Most of the potential for growth in the number of women senators stems from open seats. Following Sen. Jeff Flake’s retirement, it’s nearly certain Arizona will elect its first female senator, with Rep. Martha McSally and Kelli Ward battling for the GOP nomination, and Rep. Kyrsten Sinema clearing the Democratic field. Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is also running in the GOP race but seems unlikely to win.

In Tennessee, Rep. Marsha Blackburn is the frontrunner in the GOP race to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker in the general election, though public polling shows former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen will be competitive in a state President Donald Trump carried by 26 points in 2016. (The only other open seat of the cycle, left by Sen. Orrin Hatch in Utah, is virtually guaranteed to be inherited by Mitt Romney.)

Rep. Jacky Rosen is the likely Democratic nominee in Nevada to take on Dean Heller, the only GOP senator up for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. It’s one of Democrats’ best takeover opportunities anywhere in the country.

But there are more opportunities for women to lose their Senate seats than for women to gain seats. Of the 13 women incumbents on the ballot this year, four are Democrats running in Trump states, and at least three of those will face off against GOP men in November.

In Missouri, where Trump won by 19 points, Sen. Claire McCaskill is all but certain to face state Attorney General Josh Hawley. In North Dakota, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp will face Rep. Kevin Cramer. And in Michigan, Democrat Debbie Stabenow looks likely to face retired Army Ranger John James, Bob Carr or businessman Sandy Pensler.

Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin is the only Democratic woman seeking re-election in a Trump state who could face a Republican woman in the general election: state Sen. Leah Vukmir, though she’s locked in a GOP primary with Kevin Nicholson.

No Republican women are positioned to challenge the remaining six Democratic men seeking re-election in states that Trump carried. Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida is likely to face Rick Scott in Florida. In Indiana, Mike Braun, Rep. Todd Rokita, and Rep. Luke Messer are in a three-way race for the GOP nomination and the chance to face Joe Donnelly. In Montana, Republicans Matt Rosendale, Troy Downing, and Russ Fagg are hoping to unseat Democrat Jon Tester. And Rep. Evan Jenkins, Don Blankenship, and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey are seeking to unseat Joe Manchin in West Virginia.

Even in less competitive races, women are absent from the lists of most likely challengers. GOP Rep. Lou Barletta is the frontrunner to face Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is likely to face GOP Rep. Jim Renacci or Mike Gibbons.

Deb Fischer, the lone Republican woman seeking re-election in 2018, looks solid now in Nebraska, where a Democrat hasn’t been elected to statewide office since at least 2010. But in the unlikely event the race develops, Jane Raybould is the Democratic frontrunner.

Two more female senators face credible primary challengers including California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (from term-limited state Senate President Kevin De León) and newly-appointed Hyde-Smith (facing state Sen. Chris McDaniel).

There are dozens of other women running for Senate—Rutgers Center for American Women and Politics lists 34 women challengers running in 2018 primaries and general elections—but few are well-positioned to win. There are four Democratic women seeking Sen. Ben Cardin’s seat in Maryland, for example, including former Army intelligence officer Chelsea Manning, but none of those candidates has the resources to oust an incumbent.

If the 13 women running in 2018 keep their seats, women win both open seats they’re positioned for in Tennessee and Arizona, and Jacky Rosen defeats Dean Heller in Nevada, there will be a record 26 women in the Senate.

In the unlikely scenario that all four Democratic women running for re-election in states where Trump won in 2016 lose (and Vukmir loses the Wisconsin GOP primary), Bredesen delivers an upset in Tennessee while Heller holds onto his seat, and Feinstein and Hyde-Smith lose in either a primary or general election, there could be just 18 women in the Senate, given that a woman is likely to replace Flake in Arizona. But if Arpaio somehow ends up winning the Arizona primary and general elections, the number of women in the Senate could drop to 17.

The most plausible scenario falls someplace in the middle, with modest gains—or modest losses—in the number of female senators.

In the 2018 House elections, there’s a wave of women with no experience in politics running, including Democrats Chrissy Houlahan in Pennsylvania and Gina Ortiz Jones in Texas. But in the Senate, the candidates most likely to add to women’s ranks have spent years laying the groundwork for major statewide races. Current House members seeking Senate seats this year, including Sinema, Blackburn and McSally, have been “waiting and working and laying groundwork and [staying] connected in party politics in the ways the men are in those states,” said Debbie Walsh, director of Rutgers Center for American Women and Politics.

After the 1992 elections, the original Year of the Woman, the number of women in the Senate doubled. The previous class included just three women (including Jocelyn Burdick, who only served a few months after being appointed to fill her late husband’s seat).

In 2018, even with a surge of women candidates across the board, along with a wave of retirements and resignations, the expectation is “slow, steady growth in the Senate,” according to Walsh. But it’s also within the realm of possibility that the number of women Senators could drop for the first time since the 1970s.

View Article at Inside Elections

https://ift.tt/2uMwJS7

#FEED 4 POLITICS

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wargiry584 · 7 years ago

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How Women Could Lose Senate Seats in the Latest Year of the Woman

How Women Could Lose Senate Seats in the Latest Year of the Woman By Leah Askarinam

The most plausible scenario falls someplace in the middle, with modest gains—or modest losses—in the number of female senators.

View Article at Inside Elections

https://ift.tt/2uMwJS7

#How Women Could Lose Senate Seats in the Latest Year of the Woman

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wastoon35 · 7 years ago

Text

How Women Could Lose Senate Seats in the Latest Year of the Woman

How Women Could Lose Senate Seats in the Latest Year of the Woman By Leah Askarinam

The most plausible scenario falls someplace in the middle, with modest gains—or modest losses—in the number of female senators.

View Article at Inside Elections

https://ift.tt/2uMwJS7

#How Women Could Lose Senate Seats in the Latest Year of the Woman

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theconservativebrief · 6 years ago

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Voters head to the polls in five states Tuesday to test whether Democrats will get their “blue wave” on Election Day this fall.

The most heated race to watch is a special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, where a Democrat hasn’t won since the 1980s. Despite big spending by Republicans, a huge ground push, and even campaign appearances by President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, polls show the Democrat, Danny O’Connor, might actually beat Republican Troy Balderson.

Washington state’s top-two primary will be a similar test of how Democrats might perform in historically conservative districts.

In a governor’s race in Michigan and a House race in Kansas, meanwhile, Democrats will test whether the future of the party is rooted in its progressive wing.

To win back a House majority in November, Democrats will have to triumph in historically red districts, as they did in Pennsylvania earlier this year when Conor Lamb pulled off a surprise victory. Some big wins on Tuesday night could be another sign that a wave year is possible.

Here is every August 7 primary election you need to know about, briefly explained.

Ohio

Who is the Republican? State Sen. Troy Balderson. He was endorsed by Pat Tiberi, whose retirement opened up this seat. He seems as conventional a Republican as you could find.

Who is the Democrat? Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor is trying to become the first Democrat to win the 12th in more than 30 years. He’s running on a Conor Lamb-like platform, eschewing the newfound issues of the left like Medicare-for-all and “Abolish ICE,” but hitting his Republican opponent for wanting to cut Medicare and Social Security.

What’s the story? This district, covering parts of suburban Columbus as well as Appalachian areas, always sends a Republican to Congress. Trump won the 12th by 9 points in 2016. Cook ranks it as R+7.

Given the overall environment, and Democratic performances in prior special elections, election forecasters like Cook have rated the 12th special election as a toss-up.

Michigan

Who are the Republicans? Republican Gov. Rick Snyder is retiring with dismal approval ratings after the Flint water crisis. In a recent NBC/Marist survey, Attorney General Bill Schuette (36 percent) had a decent lead over Lt. Gov. Brian Calley (26 percent) with lots of voters undecided.

Who are the Democrats? State Senate Democratic leader Gretchen Whitmer narrowly led the NBC/Marist poll (35 percent) versus fellow Democrats Shri Thanedar (25 percent) and Abdul El-Sayed (22 percent) among likely voters.

Michigan Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gretchen Whitmer addresses the 37th United Auto Workers Constitutional Convention in Detroit. Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

What’s the story? Both parties still need to get through their August primaries, but NBC/Marist polled a hypothetical general election matchup with the leading candidates. They found Democrat Whitmer leading Republican Schuette 47 percent to 38 percent. Cook thinks it’s a toss-up.

Who are the Republicans? Business executive and veteran John James and other business exec/Yale and Harvard economist Sandy Pensler are considered the Republican frontrunners. Historic preservationist Bob Carr is also running. Polls have shown James, one of the few black Republicans in big races this year, with a slight but persistent lead.

Who is the Senate Democrat? Debbie Stabenow, who has been in the Senate a long time. Elected in 2000. Medicare buy-in-for-people-over-55 sponsor.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) during a news conference at the Capitol in March to discuss Senate Democrats’ $1 trillion infrastructure plan. Alex Wong/Getty Images

What’s the story? Stabenow should be fine; polls put her up by a lot. Cook puts this in the Likely Democratic camp.

Who is the Republican? Rep. Jack Bergman, first elected to the House in 2016. He voted for Obamacare repeal (Michigan is a Medicaid expansion state) and the tax bill.

Rep. Jack Bergman (R-MI), arrives for the House Republican Conference meeting in the Capitol on June 6, 2018. Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call

Who are the Democrats? Well, technically zero. Matthew Morgan, the presumptive Democratic candidate, did not qualify for the primary ballot because of an administrative error by his campaign, so he has to run as a write-in candidate. Assuming he gets enough signatures in the primary — and the former Marine has the endorsement of the state’s AFL-CIO — he should make it on the ballot in November.

What’s the story? The Cook Political Report rates the Michigan First as Likely Republican, meaning it’s just on the edge of competitiveness for Democrats. Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 20 points here in 2016, and it is an overwhelmingly white and rural district. Cook rates it R+9, meaning all else being equal, it’s about 9 points more Republican than the country as a whole.

The case for Morgan, assuming he gets through this bureaucratic snafu, is Bergman doesn’t have much of an incumbency advantage and Morgan has a profile — moderate, military — that national Democrats hope will play well in areas like this. Conor Lamb’s Pennsylvania victory would probably be the model for a Morgan win.

Who is the Republican? Rep. Fred Upton, who has been in the House since 1986. Formerly chaired the influential Energy and Commerce Committee before being term-limited. You may remember that he played a key role in persuading some holdout Republicans to vote for the House’s Obamacare repeal bill.

Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) runs out of the Capitol after the last votes of the week on April 27, 2018. Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

Who are the Democrats? It’s kind of a crowded field, with four Democrats on the ballot. Matt Longjohn, a former YMCA and public health official, has raised the most money and might have the most compelling story, having jumped into the race after Upton’s vote for the repeal legislation. David Benac is a Western Michigan history professor trying to run as the grassroots candidate. Rich Eichholz is a scientist arguing for evidence-based policy. George Franklin, a former Kellogg lobbyist, rounds out the field.

What’s the story? The Sixth District is, like the First, more of a long shot for Democrats. Cook has it as Likely Republican and rates the district as R+4. Upton is an entrenched incumbent.

But Trump’s margin of victory was narrower here — 8 points — and the district has been reelecting the more moderate Upton for decades. It seems at least conceivable that an anti-Trump wave could sweep him out of office, if Democrats successfully tie him to the president. But the wave would probably need to be significant.

Who is the Republican? Rep. Tim Walberg, first elected in 2006, though he lost reelection in 2008 before taking back the seat in 2010. Voted for Obamacare repeal and the tax bill.

Who are the Democrats? Gretchen Driskell was put on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue list, meaning Washington Democrats like what they’ve seen from her campaign. She comes from a Navy family and has served as a mayor and now in the state legislature. She has run here before, having lost to Walberg in 2016 by 15 points.

Her only competition on the ballot is Steven Friday, running as a self-identified “Berniecrat.”

Gretchen Driskell of Michigan District Seven, on May 10, 2018. Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call

What’s the story? This is another Likely Republican district, according to Cook, R+7. Trump won by 17 points. It’s very white and not particularly well-educated.

But the district has swung in prior wave elections (see 2008 and 2010), and Driskell profiles as the kind of candidate Democrats think can compete in areas like this. Her 2016 loss was actually a little narrower than Clinton’s too, if you’re looking for reason to be optimistic.

Who is the Republican? Rep. Mike Bishop, first elected in 2014. He also voted for Obamacare repeal, in spite of the Medicaid cuts for an expansion state, and the tax bill. He does technically face a primary challenger: Lokesh Kumar, running as an outsider against the establishment.

Who are the Democrats? Elissa Slotkin is another name on the DCCC’s Red to Blue list. She is a former CIA officer who worked on the White House National Security Council under Presidents Bush and Obama. She definitely has the look that Democrats like for these swing districts: a history of military and public service. Women are also cleaning up in Democratic primaries, as Vox has documented.

Elissa Slotkin, then the acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, steps from the plane at right, while then Defense Secretary Ash Carter is greeted by US Ambassador to Iraq Stu Jones at the Baghdad International Airport in Iraq on July 23, 2015. Carolyn Kaster/Pool/Getty Images

Her only competition is Chris Smith, a Michigan State University public policy professor, running on good government and Medicare-for-all.

What’s the story here? The Eighth is a toss-up, according to Cook, and the district is just R+4. Clinton lost to Trump by less than 7 points here in 2016. It covers an area near Lansing, the state capital, and its constituents are a little better-educated — all ingredients that could give Democrats an edge.

Who is the Republican? Well, Rep. David Trott is retiring, so it’s an open seat. The GOP primary is very competitive, with a lot of credible candidates. Among them is former US Rep. Kerry Bentivolio and several state lawmakers: Sen. Mike Kowall, Rep. Klint Kesto, and former Rep. Rocky Raczkowski. Self-funding business executive Lena Epstein rounds out the field for the Republicans.

Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-MI) on Capitol Hill on October 16, 2013. Susan Walsh/AP

Who are the Democrats? Another wide-open field. Suneel Gupta, brother of doctor and CNN personality Sanjay Gupta, has the most money. Former Obama administration official Haley Stevens has some union support. Fayrouz Saad is angling to be the first Muslim woman elected to Congress, and she got the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsement. Current Michigan Rep. Tim Greimel is also on the ballot.

Suneel Gupta works at his campaign headquarters in Livonia, Michigan, on May 1, 2018. Paul Sancya/AP

Several of the candidates have raised at least six figures. Endorsements are also spread out, though Greimel (perhaps unsurprisingly, as a sitting elected official) has the most.

What’s the story here? It’s a toss-up. Trump beat Clinton by just 4 points here, and the district profiles as R+4. It’s a little more diverse and very well-educated.

Not having an incumbent could be an advantage for Democrats, but it’s hard to know exactly how the race will look until we see who wins the primaries on Tuesday. But the 11th should be a focus for both parties in the battle for the House.

Who are the Democrats? Well, Rep. John Conyers had to retire after sexual harassment allegations. His successor will be picked in this primary, barring something unforeseen.

HIs great-nephew, state Sen. Ian Conyers, is running. So is Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones. She’s the subject of a strong campaign to elect an African-American woman for this city district. Westland Mayor Bill Wild and lefty former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib round out the rest of the field, with Tlaib raising a lot of money and both running progressive platforms.

Who are the Republicans? There are none.

What’s the story? Whoever wins the primary will be the next representative for this 57 percent black district.

Missouri

Who are the Republicans? Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley is by far the favorite in a massive field of Republican primary candidates. The state’s Republican Party effectively granted Hawley the nomination when it gave the Republican National Committee the go-ahead to spend money backing Hawley’s campaign before he had even won the primary. (An RNC rule doesn’t let it engage in spending for candidates in a contested primary unless the state’s GOP approves.) This move ruffled some conservatives, who saw it as the party disenfranchising its own voters.

Hawley has aimed to distance himself from former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens, who was forced to resign in the wake of a contentious sexual misconduct scandal.

Sen. Claire McCaskill speaks in the US Senate. Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Who are the Democrats? Two-term Sen. Claire McCaskill is being forced to defend her seat in the red state once more. McCaskill, who’s emphasized how fiercely independent she is, has already navigated races against two Republicans in 2006 and 2012. Most recently, she trounced Todd Akin by more than 15 percentage points in 2012 following his comments about “legitimate rape.” “If it’s legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut the whole thing down,” he said during a television interview at the time.

McCaskill has some competition in the Democratic primary, but her real focus is on Hawley.

What’s the story? Because Hawley and McCaskill are pretty much the presumptive nominees for their respective parties, a good deal of the primary runup has already focused on the back-and-forth between the two. Given Missouri’s heavy conservative lean (Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as a toss-up), McCaskill has been consistently vulnerable.

“It’s going to be a squeaker in my view,” Adrianne Marsh, McCaskill’s campaign manager in 2012 and her communications director in 2006, told Vox’s Ella Nilsen. “The dynamics, they’re tough.”

Hawley has already gone on the attack in ads hammering McCaskill on Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination, suggesting that she’s too liberal to represent Missouri. This race is expected to be close in the general election, with polls vacillating between the two.

Who is the Republican? Rep. Ann Wagner, in office since 2013. Also known for serving as the ambassador to Luxembourg under President George W. Bush. She’s facing a primary challenger from a relatively unknown candidate named Noga Sachs, whose affiliation with the GOP has been called into question.

Who are the Democrats? Out of the field of five Democrats lining up to challenge Wagner, the frontrunners appear to be attorney Cort VanOstran and Army veteran Mark Osmack.

What’s the story? Wagner has largely voted in favor of the Trump administration’s policy priorities. Her district is rated R+8, but if Democrats can field the right candidate and the blue wave ends up materializing, this conservative Missouri district has a chance of becoming blue.

VanOstran and Osmack have out-fundraised the rest of their opponents in the primary. VanOstran leads the pack in campaign cash, but Osmack is also fundraising and has endorsements from VoteVets and politicians including Sen. Tammy Duckworth and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (both veterans). Osmack is positioning himself as the progressive choice, running on a platform that includes Medicare-for-all, while VanOstran supports shoring up the Affordable Care Act.

Kansas

Who are the Republicans? Current Gov. Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Kris Kobach are leading the pack. Jim Barnett and Ken Selzer are also part of a larger group that will be on the ballot.

President Trump with Kansas Secretary of State and Republican candidate for governor Kris Kobach. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Colyer — who took over the governor’s position after Sam Brownback became ambassador at large for international religious freedom earlier this year — has painted himself as the more low-key alternative to Kobach, whose close ties to Trump and broader notoriety precede him. Kobach has long been known for touting hardline anti-illegal immigration policies and is among those most associated with the president’s theories on voter fraud.

Who are the Democrats? Former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, state Sen. Laura Kelly, and former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture Josh Svaty are among the contenders. Kelly is seen as the leading candidate given her strong fundraising numbers, though she’s recently been embroiled in a controversy over a vote she made about supporting voter ID laws.

What’s the story? Colyer and Kobach have been polling very close to one another, though Kobach is widely perceived as the candidate with more name recognition who’s expected to come out on top. Some Republicans are worried, however, that Kobach’s extreme of positions on issues like immigration could push voters toward Democrats in the fall.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Kelly has gained some momentum after getting recruited to the race by former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. Cook Political Report rates the race as Likely Republican.

Who are the Republicans? There are a lot of them. State Sens. Steve Fitzgerald, Dennis Pyle, and Caryn Tyson, state Rep. Kevin Jones, former state Rep. Doug Mays. Rounding out the list are Basehor City Council member Vernon Fields and Army vet Steve Watkins. There’s no clear frontrunner in the bunch.

Who is the Democrat? Former state Rep. Paul Davis. He unsuccessfully ran for governor against Republican Gov. Sam Brownback.

What’s the story? Cook Political Report rates this district R+10, but if Democrats are hoping to flip a House seat in conservative Kansas, this very well may be their best shot. During Davis’s unsuccessful bid for governor in 2014, he won the Second Congressional District — which shows he’s already got appeal in the district, which includes Topeka.

The fact that Davis is the lone Democrat will set him up nicely against whoever emerges out of a seven-person Republican field, which has no obvious successor to replace retiring Rep. Lynn Jenkins. Plus, Davis has already far outraised all of the Republican candidates and has the backing of the DCCC. Kansas Republicans are nervous about this race, with good reason.

Who are the Republicans? Rep. Kevin Yoder, in office since 2011. He serves on the House Appropriations Committee.

Who are the Democrats? There are seven Democrats running in this primary, but four names stand out: MMA fighter Sharice Davids, former Bernie Sanders staffer Brent Welder, teacher Tom Niermann, and business leader Sylvia Williams.

What’s the story? Welder, in particular, is looking to test the theory of whether a Sanders-style progressive can win a primary in a conservative state. Since Sanders and rising progressive star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stumped for Welder a few weeks ago, he’s kicked up his fundraising game. But he’s also got competition; Davids has the backing of Emily’s List, and Niermann has the endorsement of some local labor groups. Gun control is a prominent issue for Niermann, a high school teacher.

All are hoping for the chance to unseat Yoder, who is looking like one of the more vulnerable incumbents this year. Cook rates the district R+4, and it also went for Clinton in 2016, so there’s a definite chance it could flip this year. Democrats will hit Yoder on his votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act and pass GOP tax cuts.

Washington

Who are the Democrats? Washington State University professor Carolyn Long is seen as the frontrunner. Veteran Dorothy Gasque, business executive David McDevitt, and software company founder Martin Hash are also on the docket.

Long has raised the most money of the four Democrats and obtained the endorsement of high-profile national groups like Emily’s List, though McDevitt has the most cash on hand. Gasque, a staunch Bernie Sanders supporter who’s gotten the backing of the Justice Democrats, has sought to frame herself as the more progressive option.

Who are the Republicans? Four-term incumbent Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, former California State University professor Earl Bowerman, and retired electrician Michael Cortney.

Redistricting has helped Herrera Beutler coast to victory in past years.

What’s the story? This historically conservative district is one that Democrats have long been eyeing as a potential pickup opportunity, although Herrera Beutler has swept her reelection races by double digits in the past.

The district also went for Trump by 8 points. Earlier this year, Long released an internal poll that indicated she is within 5 percentage points of Herrera Beutler. In April, the Cook Political Report downgraded the district from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, suggesting that Democrats might have more of a fighting chance.

Who are the Democrats? Former state Sen. Lisa Brown is the presumptive Democratic pick. She’s already begun going after Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers’s ties to the Capitol and special interests, like pharmaceutical companies.

Who are the Republicans? Seven-term incumbent Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the No. 4 Republican in the House, needs to do well in the top-two primary to reaffirm her standing in the district.

She has a few Republican challengers, but her real threat is Brown.

What’s the story? While it’s uncommon for Republican leaders like McMorris Rodgers to lose their bids for reelection, it’s not without precedent. Democrats think momentum could be on their side: Trump captured just over 52 percent of the vote in the district in 2016, and constituents have hammered McMorris Rodgers for hewing too close to the president.

Who are the Democrats? Pediatrician Kim Schrier, former prosecutor Jason Rittereiser, doctor Shannon Hader, and IT specialist Robert Hunziker.

Schrier has a fundraising edge, along with the support of Emily’s List and a bunch of national labor groups.

Who are the Republicans? Former state Sen. Dino Rossi is making yet another attempt for elected office in the state. He’s got strong name recognition after mounting failed bids for both governor and Senate.

What’s the story? Democrats see incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert’s retirement as a potential opportunity to capture the district, which Cook rates as a toss-up.

Original Source -> Every August 7 primary election you should know about, briefly explained

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