#probablility

[prokopetz]

Re: statistics for game designers, something i've been wondering as I fiddle around with my own systems. I've seen a lot of games where the main dice mechanic is to roll XdY and take the highest number, or roll XdY and count how many of the dice pass some target number. These I understand. How would the math work out for doing that kind of setup with a pool of different-sized dice?

Like, say you have a game where the default roll is a d20, but depending on what bonuses you have you can roll one or more smaller sized dice from the standard polyhedral set and take those results if they're higher? Of course I understand that especially with a d20 in the mix, the most that other dice could do is shield you from horrible failure, rather than push your success to new heights. But how tangible would the mathematical advantage be?

(With reference to this post here.)

In general, taking the highest of a heterogeneous dice pool results in a distribution with a lopsided bump in the lower range up to the size of the smaller die, with every result higher than the maximum value of the smaller die being equally likely.

I can't speak to what "advantage" this would offer (if any!) without knowing a great deal more about what you want to do with the resulting numbers, but if you want to graph it out yourself, AnyDice can handle it fairly easily with formulas along the following lines:

output [highest of 1d20 and 2d6]

AnyDice's "highest of" function is unfortunately limited to two different kinds of dice when dealing with heterogeneous dice pools, so if you need to include three or more kinds, you'll need to either roll your own function, or start doing goofy nesting tricks, like so:

output [highest of 1d20 and [highest of 1d6 and 1d8]]

[humormehorny]

I was reading the Boy or Girl paradox page on wikipedia for reasons pertaining to a video game, which, briefly, is a paradox in which the problem "Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?" has two simultaneous answers (1/2 and 1/3) depending on how you approach the problem, when I got to a section called "Gender assumptions" which has the following paragraph:

Although Gardner envisioned the paradox being considered in a world in which gender was static and binary, and the distribution of children was uniform across that gender binary,[1] his framing of the problem does not state or require those assumptions. The difference between the two questions is equally interesting from a mathematical point of view in a world in which P(girl) and P(boy) are well-defined across a population of individuals at a given time, but are not necessarily equal or static and do not necessarily add to one.

I think it's extremely funny that modern mathematicians were like "oh this paradox is outdated, the kids could be nonbinary!! wait actually that just makes it better"

Anyway you're my only mathblr mutual so I thought you might get a kick out of that.

This is so wonderful! I spent a while reading the article after I finished reading your ask! I love that they are changing this problem.

I think there is some mathematical urge to make the most general statement/equation you can, and the first iteration definitely is a special case of gender where boy and girl are related to some degree [if (your a boy) => ( your not a girl) && if (your a girl) => (your not a boy)] means or at least implies that boy and girl are not linearly independent genders. Likewise wiki goes on to say that the total probability for genders is not necessarily 1. I would go further to say that for n genders the total probability 0 < P(all) < n.

Thank you so much for sending this in!

[laggingbehindreality]

Silly Game Time: WEIRD GLADIATOR FIGHTS! An average furry cosplayer in a high-quality, full-body suit with a pitchfork and sturdy but blunt plastic claws VS a professional and ruthless contract killer for the mafia with only a cheap suit and a pair of brass knuckles.

You've got $5 to wager on who will win (no split wagers). Place your bet!

Ohh man this is tough...

The furry cosplayer has the clear resources advantage, and I don't want to discount the raw strength that must come from lugging materials from place to place.

BUT! The contract killer has a clear advantage on the mental game. If the furry cosplayer isn't willing to go for the final kill, the professional killer will have no such hesitation when they find a gap to exploit. It's a coin toss if the furry has this aspect down to pat, but if that contract killer really is a professional they'll have that squared away.

[honexjams]

fantastic news gamers i should be able to get top surgery before july 💯💯💯💯💯💯💯

[eoongil]

With the ever growing amount of people on the world, the likelihood of some of the "dismissed bc they were probably written for internet clout" posts on tumblr being actual events increases.

[four-ravens-in-a-trenchcoat]

Fuck this shit

Now Sweden gives thumbs-up to chat control 2.0, an awful proposition which would require digital communication providers to allow government access to encrypted private messages ("but only photo, video and links now :):):) not literally every digital communication you do :):):)"). This is a massive invasion to personal integrity, a fucking data security risk and an "'accidentally' surveilled the groups I like to opress or my political opponents a bit, oops" risk, especially in the more authoritarian countries. All to find, you know it, child porn and grooming (this will of course not catch teens sending consensual nudes, vacation pictures of babies on beaches sent to family members or normal porn and waste massive resources on scanning and processing "suspect" content).

Did I mention this sucks yet? They didn't even ask the government people supposed to decide our stance on EU politics, just the justice committee. During a single meeting, no debate. Sweden's desicion means a larger probablility that this passes in EU.

And you know what? Two parties which my views generally align with, who before the election NOT EVEN TWO WEEKS AGO, one of which I voted for partly because of their stance on this (no to mass surveillance, personal integrity is important) BOTH DID A 180 AND VOTED FOR CHAT CONTROL. One thing if parties I don't like and don't vote for do this, but I trusted these fuckers to have at least a little backbone/common sense. Also why did the nationalistic and generally shitty party SD vote no to this. Why do only they and C think this is a bad idea.

In other news, I've written to my first representative today to express my disappointment. I hope this doesn't pass silently.

[bayleavesfromthevine]

thinking about the possibility (probablility) of kaji's uncontrollable rage stemming from a brain injury he could have easily sustained from a fight during his childhood

shhhh no I'm not thinking too much about this, you are

[bloggedanon]

TOY COMMISSIONS ARE OPEN. DM IF INTERESTED, OR IF YOU JUST WANT TO DONATE.

Alright, listen up, folks.

My hours have been reduced to nothing for months now on account of disabilities I'm trying to get treated for, I got a med bill I wasn't expectin' in the mail, and now I'm woefully far from bein' able to pay for my upcoming psychiatrist appointment, which I have to pay for by the 24th of this month. This one is really important because there's a strong probablility this one will be the one to prescribe me some meds that just might enable me to be able to acually take care of myself (read: actually function at all) for the first time in my life. I'm prolly gonna need like $300 to cover the appointment. I ain't askin' y'all to help me for free, however.

I can sew together little pillow monster things. They have zipper mouths and button eyes. They're hand-sewn, from a pet-free home.

This is my oldest (and smallest) example. about 7" wide and tall. The ones I'm proposing to sell will be about 9" wide and tall.

Here are the buttons and (9) zippers I have available for this endeavor. (Sorry about the lighting.) Note the loops on the zipper pulls for easier zipping.

Uhh, those are soda can pull tabs in the corner. Ignore that, I'm procrastinating on working on a project.

In terms of fabric, I have fleece and flannel of various colors. 'S all preshrunk in a washer and dryer, but I don't have a good way to showcase or store fabric other than shoving it all into one plastic bag. That aside, here's the flannel I have:

(Dark blue, light blue, teal, white, space [small amount], and scales [purple, blue, and green scales, small amount])

And here's the fleece:

(Purple, red, orange, and black [small amount])

Note how I have more of some colors in one material or another than in others. This means certain body surface colors may not be possible due to material limitations. I have a whole bunch of thread colors, and just an overall abundance of thread tho 👍

These are custom made to order, and the production is paid in advance. You can do custom colors (body, front vs back color, the color of the inside of the mouth, whether or not you want it to have a tongue, number / color of eyes) and you can POTENTIALLY do other customizations. (Want it to have a ridge on its back like a cartoon dinosaur? Want me to give it horns? Want me to try to figure out how tassles work? Want it to have floppy, doofy, cow-lookin' ears? [I recommend fleece for these kinds of additions, trust me on this one.]) Shape alterations mmmmaayyyyy be possible, but that's pretty dubious. Bear in mind that any customizations / additions will likely drive priduction time wayyy up, and there are things I might not be able to do.

Shipping will be paid seperately, and at the time of shipping. I can't really afford to cover shipping, but also I have no earthly idea how to calculate shipping. I have a tiny scale at home now that I can use to weigh the finished product, but that's about it. These are gonna have to be personally taken to the post office, which means a lot of walking. I dunno, we'll figure it out.

This is all being said and shown in the interest of maximum transparency with this stuff. You will recieve update images with progress on your little monster dude, and you're gonna have to give feedback on the button placements and angles before I sew 'em on so that way I know I've got the look you want on it.

Payments are done over Paypal.

Base price: $35 USD + shipping

Comm slots open: 9

Customizations and additions will add to the price, but the extent to which it happens is (sort of) negotiable. Most customizations are going to be (sort of) experimental on my end, and hand sewing takes forever, especially when you have "everything magically is really hard and takes too long" disease.

If I hit my goal, I'll stop accepting donations. If all 9 commission slots are taken, I will update this post with a good ol'-fashioned pinned reblog and close commissions AND donations. Note that I can only work on one pillow monster at a time, and that it's on a first-come-first-serve basis. If I'm working on one and you want to commission one, I'll let you know and ask if you wanna wait for it. You'll get a number (1-9) to signify whose order I need to do next.

In the meantime, I need to go pop out and sell some blood plasma, probably. 🤡

[hellsite-cat-genetics]

Hellsite Cat Genetics, about:

Disclaimer 1: I AM NOT A GENETICIST, NOR DO I HAVE ANY FORMAL TRAINING IN THIS FIELD. I'm simply autistic and I will likely get things wrong. Do not use this blog as education in these topics.

Disclaimer 2: I'm using a simplified version of many loci (genes), for both artistic, and practical purposes. As an example, I am using the simplified version of widebanding, Wd>wd. This is not scientifically accurate.

This blog was inspired by @hellsitegenetics and @hellsite-proteins. Check back here often, as I often update this space :)

Hey there! My plan for this blog is to take a post and break down the letters into a usable code. Because most Tumblr users (presumably) don't use standard genetic nomenclature in their posts, I've changed some genes to be "triggered" by different letters. I've also swapped around the capitalisation, for probablility reasons. You won't notice this in the final result, but it is important for the process.

Feel free to use any of my designs as OC's or adopts or whatever, as long as you credit me. Also feel free to edit any designs, again, as long as you credit me.

Breed specific genes, and tortie males are currently not being coded for.

I tag by phenotypical traits, then the name of the cat, the “breedline” of the cat (if applicable), then their parents (if applicable), then #HCG de cating.

If the post is not a de-cating post I tag it #not a de cating post.

[pumpkinpietimb]

Hiiii Tumblr, it's me again... begging for a recap... because I was too busy to check the tag for more than 15 minutes every 3 hours... I have no idea what happened today besides the probablility of qBBH drugging qPac to sleep, qFit going to sleep?, Cucurucho celebrating Jaiden's birthday with her, qFoolish handing in his report, aaannndd qBBH calling Ron family??

Please help ToT

[wildpeachfarm]

Im just really good with statistics and probablility lol. That's all gambling is, statistics and probability. And thats why I'm not allowed to gamble.

LOL you're a secret weapon

I like statistics so maybe I will try it out sometime :)

[comefiorineldeserto]

Probablile..

Dai, hai reso l’idea

[cle-news]

And that's exactly why I have to share thé ghetto song not just to a city's environment, not just to a big companie environment, not even just to a country environment, but to thé World himself.

Hopping that those sufficiently in charge will start to understand thé seriousness of our present situation and start to do there ***** job correctly.

We don't want a big audience or a riots. That's exacly one of thé things that we try to avoid for good. What we want is that peoples in charge start to act responsably. How can they stays like that, without any other purpose than trying to please themself. I'm telling you, your goal is not a goal to reach. Being happy is a stain of mind, not a goal. Being rich is a goal, but it's not a purpose. That's not thé point anyway. Is that all the credit you give to your life, be some kind of parasite, fighting all the time and finaly find peace without even a single little hope to leave in Harmony. Because you don't need any reason to be, you just stay there. That's fucking great infact !

That's what happen when having a purpose became forbiden... Your life has no meaning and you end up self destruction. "But that's because of the preast if you are depress..." Thank you "Satan". When you are depress there are more probablility that the reason is that you have no reason not to be.

[thewitchesfortune]

So, reblogging from this point because I don't want to detract from the other arguments, but it makes perfect sense to me because of the belief that psychics, witches/magicians, those who actively interact with spirit in any way shape or form, intentionally or not, tend to also DRAW SPIRITS TO THEM. So it's like the difference between feeling like you need to lock your beater car that has nothing inside it for anyone to take, vs a mercedes benz. I'm not talking about value here, I'm just saying one of these cars is more likely to attract attention, but both cars still MIGHT get broken into though, which is why we do have some of these more outlandish modern stories like the conjuring house

So if you don't practice/don't believe then you are less likely to actually deal with anything supernatural to begin with

And then to add to that, there are a lot of new houses as well that haven't had death in them yet, and haven't had people actively practicing. So there's not a lot of reason something WOULD happen. It CAN happen though, so I honestly do believe that people should have some form of protection up regardless of if they practice regularly or not

One more reason as someone who venerates my ancestors, some people's ancestors are just very protective already, so they don't NEED to worry because their ancestors are pretty vigilant. Some people are just born with strong natural protection 🤷‍♀️

So this all does make a lot of sense to me because at the end of the day, it's a probablility game, and it goes up or down depending on several factors 😁 Idk how many people will agree with me on this, but that's my opninion, and I'd love to discuss further!

I wonder sometimes how witches who insist that unwarded home are just open season for spirits must view non-witchy homes. Like do they think that these places are just riddled with ghosts and spirits and bad energy because no one is regularly cleansing or casting protective spells?

I wonder if it's something that crosses their minds or if they reflect on the broader implications of the idea that an unwarded home is automatically going to attract spirits and whatnot. Or maybe they don't think about the concept outside of witchcraft-related applications, I don't know.

Moreover, I wonder where they're getting these ideas and whether it's all just influenced by ghost shows and the plethora of Warren Bullshit that floats about the community.

No shade or anything, it's just something I think about whenever these conversations come up.

[caracoloco]

the notebook with the page full of spirals is from Investigación de Operaciones which is an alright class but we have been stuck reviewing basic probablility and calculus for more than a month so i barely take notes in class. we're barely on simplex and that is still a review topic -_-

[squishmallow36]

Okay the probablility i'm gonna reference kotlc on my ap comp exam is quickly increasing. I've done it at least three times in practice essays. This is getting concerning. When in doubt, use kotlc. I'm sure it'll work.