#prigozhin theatrics

[taiwantalk]

hey um, if you think nothing interesting to see now after prigozhin cut a deal.... well, check out this video.

storm z russian soldier unit chastising prigozhin abandoning them.

[rudo-lfium]

“At the cost of the lives of 13 russkie pilots Putin and Prigozhin staged a theatrical “coup” to create a pretext for getting rid of Shoygu” — is the prevalent feeling among onlookers today.

Let’s hope every staff decision involves elimination of more ruskie criminal war personnel. The utter stupidity of Russia’s leadership is just fantastic.

[ammg-old2]

The hall of mirrors that Vladimir Putin has built around himself and within his country is so complex, and so multilayered, that on the eve of a genuine insurrection in Russia, I doubt very much if the Russian president himself believed it could be real.

Certainly the rest of us still can’t know, less than a day after this mutiny began, the true motives of the key players, and especially not of the central figure, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group. Prigozhin, whose fighters have taken part in brutal conflicts all over Africa and the Middle East—in Syria, Sudan, Libya, the Central African Republic—claims to command 25,000 men in Ukraine. In a statement yesterday afternoon, he accused the Russian army of killing “an enormous amount” of his mercenaries in a bombing raid on his base. Then he called for an armed rebellion, vowing to topple Russian military leaders.

Prigozhin has been lobbing insults at Russia’s military leadership for many weeks, mocking Sergei Shoigu, the Russian minister of defense, as lazy, and describing the chief of the general staff as prone to “paranoid tantrums.” Yesterday, he broke with the official narrative and directly blamed them, and their oligarch friends, for launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Ukraine did not provoke Russia on February 24, he said: Instead, Russian elites had been pillaging the territories of the Donbas they’ve occupied since 2014, and became greedy for more. His message was clear: The Russian military launched a pointless war, ran it incompetently, and killed tens of thousands of Russian soldiers unnecessarily.

The “evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped,” Prigozhin declared. He warned the Russian generals not to resist: “Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation we see above our heads.” The snarling theatricality of Prigozhin’s statement, the baroque language, the very notion that 25,000 mercenaries were going to remove the commanders of the Russian army during an active war—all of that immediately led many to ask: Is this for real?

Up until the moment it started, when actual Wagner vehicles were spotted on the road from Ukraine to Rostov, a Russian city a couple of miles from the border (and actual Wagner soldiers were spotted buying coffee in a Rostov fast-food restaurant formerly known as McDonald’s), it seemed impossible. But once they appeared in the city—once Prigozhin posted a video of himself in the courtyard of the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov—and once they seemed poised to take control of Voronezh, a city between Rostov and Moscow, theories began to multiply.

Maybe Prigozhin is collaborating with the Ukrainians, and this is all an elaborate plot to end the war. Maybe the Russian army really had been trying to put an end to Prigozhin’s operations, depriving his soldiers of weapons and ammunition. Maybe this is Prigozhin’s way of fighting not just for his job but for his life. Maybe Prigozhin, a convicted thief who lives by the moral code of Russia’s professional criminal caste, just feels dissed by the Russian military leadership and wants respect. And maybe, just maybe, he has good reason to believe that some Russian soldiers are willing to join him.

Because Russia no longer has anything resembling “mainstream media”—there is only state propaganda, plus some media in exile—we have no good sources of information right now. All of us now live in a world of information chaos, but this is a more profound sort of vacuum, because so many people are pretending to say things they don’t believe. To understand what is going on (or to guess at it), you have to follow a series of unreliable Russian Telegram accounts, or else read the Western and Ukrainian open-source intelligence bloggers who are reliable but farther from the action: @wartranslated, who captions Russian and Ukrainian video in English, for example; or Aric Toler (@arictoler), of Bellingcat, and Christo Grozev (@christogrozev), formerly of Bellingcat, the investigative group that pioneered the use of open-source intelligence. Grozev has enhanced credibility because he said the Wagner group was preparing a coup many months ago. (This morning, I spoke with him and told him he was vindicated. “Yes,” he said, “I am.”)

But the Kremlin may not have very good information either. Only a month ago, Putin was praising Prigozhin and Wagner for the “liberation” of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine, after one of the longest, most drawn-out battles in modern military history. Today’s insurrection was, by contrast, better planned and executed: Bakhmut took nearly 11 months, but Prigozihin got to Rostov and Voronezh in less than 11 hours, helped along by commanders and soldiers who appeared to be waiting for him to arrive.

Now military vehicles are moving around Moscow, apparently putting into force “Operation Fortress,” a plan to defend the headquarters of the security services. One Russian military blogger claimed that units of the military, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB security service, and others had already been put on a counterterrorism alert in Moscow very early Thursday morning, supposedly in preparation for a Ukrainian terrorist attack. Perhaps that was what the Kremlin wanted its supporters to think—though the source of the blogger’s claim is not yet clear.

But the unavoidable clashes at play—Putin’s clash with reality, as well as Putin’s clash with Prigozhin—are now coming to a head. Prigozhin has demanded that Shoigu, the defense minister, come to see him in Rostov, which the Wagner boss must know is impossible. Putin has responded by denouncing Prigozhin, though not by name: “Exorbitant ambitions and personal interests have led to treason,” Putin said in an address to the nation this morning. A Telegram channel that is believed to represent Wagner has responded: “Soon we will have a new president.” Whether or not that account is really Wagner, some Russian security leaders are acting as if it is, and are declaring their loyalty to Putin. In a slow, unfocused sort of way, Russia is sliding into what can only be described as a civil war.

If you are surprised, maybe you shouldn’t be. For months—years, really—Putin has blamed all of his country’s troubles on outsiders: America, Europe, NATO. He concealed the weaknesses of his country and its army behind a facade of bluster, arrogance, and appeals to a phony “white Christian nationalism” for foreign audiences, and appeals to imperialist patriotism for domestic consumption. Now he is facing a movement that lives according to the true values of the modern Russian military, and indeed of modern Russia.

Prigozhin is cynical, brutal, and violent. He and his men are motivated by money and self-interest. They are angry at the corruption of the top brass, the bad equipment provided to them, the incredible number of lives wasted. They aren’t Christian, and they don’t care about Peter the Great. Prigozhin is offering them a psychologically comfortable explanation for their current predicament: They failed to defeat Ukraine because they were betrayed by their leaders.

There are some precedents for this moment. In 1905, the Russian fleet’s disastrous performance in a war with Japan helped inspire a failed revolution. In 1917, angry soldiers came home from World War I and launched another, more famous revolution. Putin alluded to that moment in his brief television appearance this morning. At that moment, he said, “arguments behind the army’s back turned out to be the greatest catastrophe, [leading to] destruction of the army and the state, loss of huge territories, resulting in a tragedy and a civil war.” What he did not mention was that up until the moment he left power, Czar Nicholas II was having tea with his wife, writing banal notes in his diary, and imagining that the ordinary Russian peasants loved him and would always take his side. He was wrong.

[qudachuk]

Images of tanks in streets of Moscow evoke memories of a faltering Soviet Union’s final months in 1991Russia-Ukraine war: latest developmentsFor months Yevgeny Prigozhin has theatrically railed against Russia’s military leaders. He has lambasted defence minister Sergei...

[taiwantalk]

This makes entertaining drama but until wagners actually battle with russian regulars, they’re just trying to say that they’re so unpredictable that they’re not accountable for any war crimes.

Remember, wagners committed most of the war crimes. They’re not rebels and they’re not ever going to be free from Justice just by saying that they’re having beef with Russian military.

[taiwantalk]

Well, something very odd here. Rostov is very close to the border where the Russian regular troops would be positioned. Which means, it really should not take long for russian military to immediately engage prigozhin in rostov unless…

1) russian troops are too thin to react

2) russian troops are not ordered from the top, putin/shoigu, to engage

Eh… either russian civilians are stupid or they know that it’s all bullshit… what do you think?

I’ll reconsider if a battle erupts.

You know how big of a deal this would be if prigozhin actually starts a civil war? China would be next.

Any general with an loyal army of around 20 to 30 thousand strong could do the same in Russia or China. Or North Korea. Or Iran. lol

Doubt prigozhin is ready to fight inside Russia without taking over arms supply. He’s been saying he’s low on ammos. How stupid would it be to start something without securing munition depots?

[taiwantalk]

Here’s my two cents. Prigozhin may sound like a big talking rebel leader but he’s still driving a narrative that putin was deceived by the top military commanders.

This to me is very typical mind bending russian bullshit. I say so because it smells like staged exit for putin but will remain untouched and then to be the shadow boss running everything. serious kgb theatrics. Russian version of reality political war like trump and antifa.

[taiwantalk]

nothing, yet, is truly forcing russians to change in military matters.

the determining factors are really just time and affordability like everything else in life.

because russia had surplus of military arsenal and cannon fodders, russia found it affordable to invade ukraine before ukraine become stronger than russia.

and most importantly, putin has different priorities than the actual military chain of commands. this is now self evident from prigozhin’s theatrics.

putin is looking to destroy ukraine if not entirely then death by thousand cuts for as long as the war is “affordable”.

so the changes are natural outcome of time and affordability. russians both military & civilian believe that they have all the time to change how they fight in war.

figure out how to make things not affordable for changes and prevent russia from taking more time will end the war sooner.

the first thing that comes to mind is escalation of partisan warfare inside russia.

Not just bombing here and there or setting fires or drone attacks but seriously take over some regions.

[taiwantalk]

Intelligence agencies can be both candid and confounding at the same time while being very good at what they do. That is the part that civilians cannot quite understand.

putin and prigozhin are both doing their own acts of theatrics. theatric with highs and lows of big drama with build up and sudden turn of events.

[taiwantalk]

so you see, my immediate blog following blog0 was to downplay prigozhin's theatrics because of a few obvious russian favorite cheap tricks:

1) looking ambiguous. kill 2 birds with 1 stone. we the outsiders cannot tell who these civilians are real or actors and they could be plants or just being patriotic for russian heroics instead of the narratives that are being circulated worldwide on social media as prigozhin declared. the 2 birds being, the world is being tricked to think prigozhin is gaining momentum for coup, but at the same time, he's scoring the right wing (meaning pro-invasion) pr points inside russia.

2) diversion. repositioning wagners to a midpoint while looking like they're going to moscow and trying to confound ukrainian commanders to momentarily ease off on counteroffensive operations. but in reality, they're moving faster than if wagners were truly impeded by putin to basically invade belarus with wagners instead. this is looking very likely becuase it's nearly the same playbook as 2014 invasion of donetsk and luhansk.

editorial addition: after blogging this, i suddenly realize that wagners may already have been in position midway to moscow or northeast of luhansk even before social media reporting. because it was too fast for real time transit. rostov is slightly over 1k miles (editorial correction: 1k km or 600miles) from moscow and so halfway point is still another 500 to 600miles (Editorial correction: >100 mi). for wagners to even get that far in noticeable convoy, which means more than just a couple of transports, they'd need the minimum of about 10 to 14 hours of driving and refueling. YEAH, refueling. so you think the ordinary gas station would be good enough for the convoy? so either, they've already made their way to the halfway point waiting for prigozhin's theatrics or they're just actors pretending to be wagners already reached that far (i'm beginning to think they're actors and WAGNERS CAN BE ANYWHERE NOW, A MISDIRECTION).

ANOTHER THING! they're mercenary. who's gonna pay them if prigozhin pursues glory with no assurance of revenue???! 25k or even just a few thousands is a lot of armed combatants to pay. they'd be disbanded very quickly if there's no money at the end of the day.

3) fear factor, instill fear into russian population to not mess with wagners or not get caught up in any other type of insurrection. this is why i call it theatrics. and this is also the part that fooled me. the part with helicopter and missile bombing, and some convenient photos of russian regulars shooting at civilian cars as if they're fighting wagners. they put a lot of efforts to sell this diversion.

Frankly, whether this is real or not, any partisan groups inside Russia should just exploit this and flat out call themselves wagners and take over local govt like the wagners did in donetsk & luhansk 2014.

[taiwantalk]

complicated. if someone wants to figure it out, maybe cross check with when prigozhin met with mod and then got bombarded. this is becoming a large scale murder mystery.

it's probably moot about who did what and was it real or not.

there's even the possibility that prigozhin triple crossed everybody and was just gonna watch the whole thing blow up while he's having popcorns just like the ukrainians.

a great deal of distraction from the war in ukraine and that the russians troops are on the verge of being routed.

at this point, unless wagners carry on the mutiny in some way without prigozhin, then it's all just theatrics.

yeah right? you still think prigozhin wanted mutiny? who do you know would have the nerve to get back to grab his belongings after mutiny?

[taiwantalk]

Today is another day of russian theatrics. wouldn’t it be very interesting if prigozhin is really alive and putin knows this and so putin gets on a plane in anticipation for prigozhin’s 2nd full on coup?

I’m seeing more and more tweets saying that prigozhin’s private jet was indeed shot down with a missile.

Prigozhin is fucking dead!!!

They just announced it here on national TV!

You beat me to it. Lol 😂

He was begging for it. flying back and forth like a fly has got to be getting on Putin’s nerve.

That or this is staged to allow prigozhin to disappear.

I kind of doubt that this is staged. it’s a passion job. 😭 meaning, putin wanted prigozhin dead with a passion.

Now that prigozhin is dead, wagners are really going to ask themselves, “what the fuck now?” Like seeing double rainbow, “what does this mean???!”

[taiwantalk]

so my conclusion right now after my digging is that we can only speculate that prigozhin's theatric is for now not immediately having a true finale.

now we really cannot tell whatever prigozhin did was anything close to be called a coup or mutiny.

we cannot tell if prigozhin was ever really set to go all the way to moscow.

we cannot tell if there was ever a real deal to be brokered by lukashenko because everything is said by prigozhin, putin, kremlin, and belarus govt (not even direct audio or video from lukashenko).

the audio clip that is being given by cnn can only be taken as prigozhin saying that he's turning his column back to field camps.

and with that audio about turning his column back, well, it's a typical prigozhin theatric. so is that kremlin theatric about lukashenko having brokered a deal.

It’s time to reflect on how much info can we substantiate on what transpired from 6/23 by prigozhin.

1) we cannot substantiate prigozhin’s claim of 25k wagners

2) not sure how wagners transported to lipetsk faster than Tesla ludicrous mode

3) where the hell is prigozhin

4) when & what did lukashenko officially broker the deal

5) how will wagners really obey stand down order

6) when & what source can confirm prigozhin really gave the order after he really accepted the deal

Your contribution would be appreciated. I don’t see any real direct source other than news saying so but no real source to cite

[taiwantalk]

so this was my "blog origin" (blog0) when prigozhin started this theatrics calling for people or the russian armed forces to join his ranks on his march toward moscow.

so less than 24 hrs now, it's already fading into an expected "stand down" from prigozhin.

so i'll admit it, there was a moment about 16 hrs ago that things got me all excited like maybe for once, putin & prigozhin are playing with fire too much and end up blowing everything up beyond their control like opening a pandora's box.

This makes entertaining drama but until wagners actually battle with russian regulars, they’re just trying to say that they’re so unpredictable that they’re not accountable for any war crimes.

Remember, wagners committed most of the war crimes. They’re not rebels and they’re not ever going to be free from Justice just by saying that they’re having beef with Russian military.

[taiwantalk]

I’m not alone. Although this might mean the russian military forces in ukraine are in such a bad shape that they’re desperately pulling this stunt to avoid total capitulation while the military top commanders refuse to accept defeat.

I say, let them play this theatrics, the partisan groups better jump on this small window of opportunity before it’s over.

Georgians? Chechnyas. Are you paying attention?

You snooze you lose!

If putin & prigozhin staged this, just make it real like 1989.

Here’s my two cents. Prigozhin may sound like a big talking rebel leader but he’s still driving a narrative that putin was deceived by the top military commanders.

This to me is very typical mind bending russian bullshit. I say so because it smells like staged exit for putin but will remain untouched and then to be the shadow boss running everything. serious kgb theatrics. Russian version of reality political war like trump and antifa.