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hslllot · 4 years ago

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Part I. Draft Day

fic masterlist | rated: m, mature | word count: 4.6k content/warning: hockey harry, nosey family members, a very brief mention of anxiety, overzealous hockey stans.

DRAFT REPORT: The 411 on Harry Styles by John Michaelson for Sportsnet

There’s this kid named Harry Styles. He plays hockey. Ever heard of him?

At this point there’s not much else to be said about the british Fighting Hawks’ centre, a lock to be the No.1 pick in the 2015 NHL Draft.

Dubbed a generational talent, Styles’ abilities are at a level typically only seen in video games. We all know the Edmonton Oilers will select him with the first overall pick on June 26. In years to come, hockey fans from around the globe (but especially Oilers fans) will be on the edge of their seats, watching to see if the phenom can develop into a future Hockey Hall of Fame talent the way Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux did.

Here’s what you need to know about Harry Styles:

Age on June 26: 19 Birthplace: Redditch, Worcestershire, England Current team: University of North Dakota Fighting Hawks Position: Centre Shoots: Left Height: 6-foot Weight: 190 lbs NHL Central Scouting Rank (North American): 1st

Harry Styles is a franchise-changing player in every sense of the word. He looked like a pro player even before he flew across the pond at a young age to play in the Canadian Hockey League. This has been a long time coming but the future is finally here.

He is talented beyond his years and always has been… Styles has played against older competition his entire career. Growing up in the small village of Holmes Chapel in Cheshire, England, the options for minor hockey teams were limited. Styles struggled to find a team in his age group that matched his talent level and was forced to play with older kids - and even then his talent was unmatched. Like the two other players from the UK currently playing in the NHL, Styles eventually had to leave home and play junior hockey in Canada, where he still had to play up a year against Canadian kids that grew up in a country that eats, sleeps, and breathes the game.

He should have been drafted 1st overall last year… Styles shocked the hockey world in 2013 when, instead of declaring for the 2014 NHL Draft, he announced he would be attending the University of North Dakota and lead the Fighting Hawks to an NCAA Championship. Styles, ever the media-trained athlete, dodged questions about why he chose to go to university for a year before joining the NHL, simply stating “University was always a part of the plan, no matter what happened with hockey.” The hockey community let out a collective sigh of relief when his agent, Jeffrey Azoff (whose father was, coincidentally, Wayne Gretzky’s agent), announced shortly after his championship win that after one year at UND, Styles would be declaring for the 2015 Draft.

His trophy case is full... Harry Styles has won pretty much every individual hockey award he could possibly win in his career so far. During his CHL career with the Vancouver Giants he won Rookie of the Year, multiple MVP awards, the award for most goals, assists, and overall points, and scholastic player of the year. During his short-lived NCAA career with UND, he won Rookie of the Year, the Hobey Baker Award as the top men’s hockey player, and was named to the Academic All-American team. Unfortunately, Great Britain’s ice hockey team will not be qualifying for the Olympics or the World Championships any time soon, so unless Styles applies for Canadian citizenship, international trophies and medals will be difficult to come by. Regardless, I have a feeling that there will be many Stanley Cups in his future.

He really hates underperforming… The kid puts a lot of pressure on himself. As we have seen with many successful athletes, an insatiable inner drive to compete can lead to greatness. Styles has that drive to be great and can be his own worst critic. “When I was growing up, my mum was worried about me because I was a bit of a perfectionist.” Styles told The Hockey News back in December. “When I had a bad game, I would get so upset about it. It’s just how I am and how I think every athlete should be. Good is never enough. It’s important to always keep learning and growing to better yourself.”

He is excited to play for the Oilers… Not that he would have anything bad to say about any of the 30 NHL teams, but the Oilers do hold a special place in Styles’ heart. “It’s a great hockey town with fans that are super passionate about the game.” He told The Hockey News. “They’ve been on a bit of a slide the last couple years but the team has a great history. Not many people watch the NHL where I’m from, but my dad was always interested in it and that’s how I got into the game. He was an Oilers fan during their dynasty years with Gretzky and Messier… So if they do end up drafting me first overall, I’ll feel honored to be a part of the team, and it’ll be a nice tribute to my dad.”

Be sure to catch our live 2015 NHL Draft coverage on June 26 starting at 5pm EST/2pm PT only on Sportsnet.

“With the first overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft the Edmonton Oilers are proud to select, from Holmes Chapel in England, Harry Styles.”

The room erupted in loud cheers and applause as the Edmonton Oilers drafted the National Hockey League’s newest and most sought after commodity.

Y/N’s closest friends and extended family roamed around her parents’ living room, congratulating one another with hugs and handshakes like one of their own family members was just drafted. That wasn’t the case though, they were all just deeply invested in the hockey team and the boy from England that was meant to turn things around after so many years of losing. They were so invested, in fact, that the family organized a gathering similar to something you might see on a holiday, like Thanksgiving or Christmas.

While it was not a normal holiday, for Y/N’s family it was just as significant. It was Draft Day. And every hockey fan in North America wanted Harry Styles to play for their team.

“That’s quite the suit, isn’t it?” Her uncle Will pointed to the television where the young man is dressed in an ornate red floral suit and black dress shirt. The suit was flashier than what most hockey players would wear, but it’s clear that Harry Styles is not like most hockey players. The camera panned to him as he stood up from his seat and hugged the two brunette women sitting next to him. He stuck out like a sore thumb among a sea of other young hockey players all dressed in variations of black and grey as they patiently waited to be drafted from the stands of the BB&T Centre in Florida. It was clear to Y/N that, much like his hockey skills, Harry Styles’ fashion sense was superior compared to his peers.

There was an air of excitement in the room as the draft party, all clad in blue and orange jerseys, watched the generational talent walk down the stairs of the arena and make his way to the stage. They collectively held their breath, the room becoming silent, when he arrived at the stage where both the owner and general manager of the team were waiting to greet him. Harry shook their hands before they handed him his own blue and orange jersey. As he slipped the jersey over his head and posed for a photograph with the executives, the silence in the room broke and excited conversations and speculations for the upcoming season continued. Y/N couldn’t help but feel a stir in her belly and a sense of anticipation for what the upcoming hockey season would bring.

Her thoughts lingered on the man on the screen, wondering what it might be like to meet him, when her brother pulled her out of her reverie. “Can you believe you’ll be working with the Harry Styles?”

No - she couldn’t quite believe it.

In fact, everything happening in her life right now seemed a bit too good to be true.

Set to start her third year of university in September and having to complete mandatory practicum hours in order to graduate the following year, she somehow managed to secure a placement with her favourite hockey team. The Oilers were only taking three students from the university program and everyone in the program wanted one of those spots.

The application process was incredibly stressful for Y/N. One telephone interview, one in-person interview, and a practical session where she had to demonstrate her athletic therapy skills to the team’s head trainer. She did well with the phone interview, given that they weren’t able to see her. She was able to look down at the talking points she wrote in her notebook and pause to take a couple deep breaths without making it obvious that she was reeling on the inside. Her anxiety got the best of her during the in-person interview though, freezing up when they asked simple questions like “why do you want to work for the team?” and “what experience do you have working with sport teams?”

She left the interview feeling embarrassed, but instead of taking the time to wallow and feel sorry for herself, she went home and spent hours upon hours taping her brothers’ ankles in preparation for the practical session the following day. There was no way she was going to let the opportunity fall through the cracks. Her dream of working for the Oilers was the whole reason she decided to go to school for athletic therapy in the first place. She was never any good at playing hockey but she knew in her heart that, someday, she would work for the team she loved so much. At the end of it all, she reckons her taping skills saved her, so she took her brother out to his favourite restaurant to thank him for letting her use his ankles for practice.

Fast forward a few months and she’s now stood in her parents living room thinking about how in three months she could be taping Harry Styles’ ankles.

At the time of her application, no one knew the Oilers would be picking first in the draft. The aura around the team was a bit negative at the time (because of all the losing) and there were rumours circulating the city that some of the star players were rude to the support staff and liked to party a little too hard at The Ranch (which contributed to said losing).

When she first decided to apply for the position her father warned her, “there’s a saying that you should never meet your heroes. What if they’re all a bunch of assholes and you end up hating the team you’ve loved your whole life?”

Y/N ignored her father’s warning but silently hoped that others would feel that way, narrowing down the applicant pool. However, the rumours circulating the team had no effect on the amount of students applying for the job. The fans were loyal in Edmonton (a city not known by many around the world unless you follow hockey or are compelled to visit North America’s largest shopping mall) and although the team was losing, every kid studying athletic therapy wanted a shot with their favourite team. Y/N knew of at least fifteen students that she beat out for the position.

Now, it’s late June and there is a general hype surrounding the team, as if Harry was about to come in and shine a light on the Decade of Darkness (a term Oilers fans use to characterize the recent years in which their favourite team hadn’t made the playoffs). That’s a lot of pressure to put on one person, but Y/N supposed that he’s been dealing with this kind of pressure since he was sixteen, maybe even younger.

Everyone at her family’s draft party was, yet again, watching the television intently while Harry gave his first interview as an official member of the Edmonton Oilers hockey team. While Y/N normally loved watching these types of interviews, she was a bit zoned out- mesmerized by the look of him. The suit, the wavy chestnut hair, the dimple in his left cheek, the accent. The accent. She had never really been that attracted to hockey players, which many people found hard to believe given that she’s such a fan of the sport. All of the guys from her high school who played minor hockey were rotten and thought they were better than everyone else. She did have favourite players in the NHL, players that she loved and admired, but they were her favourites because she loves how they play the game, not because she wants to fuck them.

There was something different about Harry Styles though. Not necessarily that she wanted to fuck him (especially since she recently signed an employment contract that would forbid it), but she was certainly feeling intrigued by him. He doesn’t look like the boys she went to high school with. Maybe it’s the fact that he’s British, or that he opted for a suit that set him apart from the rest of them, or maybe it was the duality of the way he held himself with unshakeable confidence in his floral suit, his gaze set intensely on the person interviewing him, posture strong and dominant, while simultaneously speaking so softly, his words laced with kindness and gratitude.

“When do you start working with the team, Y/N?” Her uncle Will asked from across the room, prompting everyone to look in her direction waiting for her response.

The news that Y/N would be working for the Oilers this season shook the family. As soon as her dad shared the news with his brother, she started receiving messages expressing congratulations from her many aunts, uncles, and cousins, shortly followed by messages asking if she would be getting free tickets to games.

“Um, mid-September, for training camp.”

“You get to meet Harry Styles?” her 9 year old cousin, Billy, asked.

“I do. I will be one of the team’s trainers.” The young boy held a look of wonder on his face, as if realizing for the first time that that his oldest cousin was actually kind of cool.

“Do you think he’s single?” Her aunt Maria asked with a smirk on her face, turning to the television to look at Harry Styles. Aunt Maria doesn’t care much for hockey but she never failed to mention which players she believed to be handsome. She was also the nosey type of aunt that liked to inquire about Y/N’s dating life. “Maybe you two will hit it off.”

Y/N playfully rolled her eyes at her aunt, waving off her comment. But before she could retort, her father chimed in. “Ha! Yea, right! That’s not going to happen. She’s not allowed to date anyone on the team, it’s the rules. Plus, Y/N knows better than to get involved with any of these guys.”

Her father was right. It is the rules. Y/N thought back to when she went into the Oilers headquarters back in April to sign her employment contract. She asked a lot of questions, making sure she understood everything about the document she was signing.

“Personal relationships? Even friendships are forbidden?” she asked the head trainer, TJ, for clarification.

“It depends. You can be friendly, sure, but I would avoid spending time with the players outside of training and game times. Could be seen as unprofessional.”

Y/N understood why such rules were in place, and she had no issue with it at the time. A woman securing a position on a professional sports team was rare, let alone a woman securing a position with a professional men’s team. She knew when she chose this career path that it would always be an uphill battle and that she’d have to work harder and be more strategic than the men in her field. She wanted- no, needed to excel and prove that she could be a talented athletic therapist and a valuable member of the team, so she had no intention whatsoever of messing that up with any type of personal relationships. She also understood the power dynamic between the professional athletes and the support staff, the different ways in which power can be abused, and how personal relationships could complicate things. It all made sense to her. Plus, she was happy enough with just becoming friends with the other trainers and she probably wouldn’t have a lot of free time, anyways, balancing her practicum and her school work.

Today, however, she couldn’t help the very slight pull on her heartstrings at the thought of not getting to know Harry Styles on a more personal level.

As if he’d even be interested in the first place.

In a hotel restaurant in Sunrise, Florida, a few hours after the draft, Harry Styles sat with his mother Anne, sister Gemma, and agent Jeff, celebrating his newly drafted status over a bottle of champagne. He knew he should be feeling elated, like it was the best day of his life, but all he felt was exhausted. The conversation at the table happened around him while he sat in his own head, unable to think about anything but what it might feel like to be tucked into his bed in his childhood bedroom in Holmes Chapel.

The weeks leading up to the draft were an absolute circus filled with interviews and talking to the media nearly every day (he hates talking to the media), shooting promo for all of his endorsements (he’s thankful for the money they give him but he knows he is an excruciatingly terrible actor), and flying around North America to visit all of the potential cities where he might be drafted (it was a pointless tour because everyone knew where he was going to end up).

He had only tonight to celebrate with his family before it was all set to start again. Him and Jeff will fly off to Edmonton tomorrow morning for a week to speak to the media there, meet the teammate he’ll be living with, and do a surprise skating session with some kids at a summer camp. Meanwhile, his mum and sister will fly back to England.

“Any idea where you’ll live then?” Anne asked her son, pulling him out of his thoughts and back into the conversation.

“Hm?” He hadn’t a clue what his mum just asked him but he’d hate to admit that rather than listening to anything the three of them had been talking about for the last hour he’d been thinking about how he’d rather be sleeping “Sorry, I think the champagne’s got to me a bit.”

“The team’s got him living with one of his older teammates and his family.” Jeff stepped in, knowing Harry wasn’t fully paying attention. “They do this with the young guys to get them used to living on their own. Teach ‘em how to cook, do laundry, and keep ‘em in line. He won’t be partying every night and bringing girls back to his place if he lives with the guy’s wife and kids.”

“Oh please,�� Gemma chimed in. “Not like any of that would be an issue for Harry. He’s been away from home for years. And he’s hardly got time for partying and dating.”

Harry shot Jeff a look warning him to keep his mouth shut. When Harry found out about the living arrangements the team had planned for him, he was less than pleased. After all, he’d just spent the last year living in a dorm room at the University of North Dakota where he had complete freedom. Gemma was right, he didn’t have much time for partying and dating. But he liked having his own space, and he really liked being able to invite someone over after a game, either to celebrate a win or relieve some stress after a loss.

“You never know, some of these young guys get their first big pay cheque and a taste of the big leagues and it can go off the rails pretty fast.”

“I like to think I raised my baby to know better than to get caught up in a pay cheque.” Anne placed a comforting hand on her son’s shoulder and he quickly reciprocated, reaching up to place his hand over hers.

Not liking where this conversation was going, Harry finally cut in. “You did. And Jeffrey, you know I’m not that kinda guy. Either way, none of this matters if I don’t make it past training camp. For all we know I could be going back to the juniors for the season.”

“Doesn’t matter who you are or what kinda guy you are, H, it’s just what the team does. It’s tradition. And c’mon, I know you like to keep your expectations in check, but the team’s made it pretty clear that you’re gonna be in the starting lineup come October.”

Jeff was right. The team had all but promised that he would make it past training camp. The question wasn’t if he’d make it past training camp, but in what shape he’d be in and how long it would take for the team to start winning games.

“The coach said I’m small and need to bulk up, especially since I’ll be playing against older, more experienced men.” Harry could feel the weight of his mum’s gaze as she gave his shoulder a reassuring squeeze. “I’m not quite where I need to be yet, but I’ll get there.”

Harry and his family were stood in the hotel lobby with Jeff, convening on plans for the morning when he felt a small tug on the hem of his red floral suit jacket. He spun himself around, ready to confront the individual bold enough to touch him without his consent, to find a young girl, no older than five years old staring up at him.

Harry looked at her, a bit taken aback and undoubtedly with a bit of confusion written on his face, and then spotted, a few feet behind her, two individuals who were most likely her parents. Suddenly, he realized that he may have actually had a few too many glasses of champagne and immediately tried to compose himself, standing straighter and trying to will away the exhaustion in his eyes and the haziness in his mind.

“Oh - um, hello there.” He cleared his throat before using the soft voice he reserves for adorable, small children like the one stood before him.

“Are you Harry Styles?” She asked with wide eyes and a small, timid voice.

“I am, sweetheart. What can I do for you?”

A bright smile etched itself onto her face. But instead of answering him, she looked back at the adults standing behind her, motioning for them to help as she was too shy to proceed on her own. The man, who Harry presumed was her father, moved to stand beside her.

“This is Millie. She wanted to say hi to you because she’s a big fan of yours.”

Harry lowered himself in front of the young girl so that he was crouched down and eye-level with her. “Hi Millie, it’s a real pleasure to meet you.” He reached out to shake the young girl’s small hand. “Have you got anything that I could sign? Or I suppose we could take a photo if you’d like?”

The young girl removed her hand from Harry’s, nodding her head eagerly. She began to unzip her jacket, revealing a bright orange Edmonton Oilers jersey underneath.

“Oh? Look at that! You’re an Oilers fan. In Florida?” Harry lifted himself from his crouched position and directed his question toward at the girl’s father.

“Yes, well, we actually travelled here from Edmonton, to watch the draft in person.” Harry raised his eyebrows in shock. He knew that the flight from Edmonton to Florida is long, and likely expensive. The tickets to attend the draft live probably weren’t cheap either. “It’s not every day your favourite team picks first overall! Let alone gets to pick a player like you. We were so excited so we decided to make a family trip out of it. Turn around, Millie, show him the back!” Millie’s father handed Harry a sharpie as Millie turned her back to Harry.

It was at that moment that Harry started to understand the weight of the moment. The name ‘STYLES’ was embroidered on the back of Millie’s Oilers jersey, above the number ‘15’ indicating his draft year. He was speechless. This was, after all, the first time he was seeing his name in the classic Oilers’ orange and blue colours adorned on a fan’s back.

The feeling was different from earlier at the draft when they presented him with his own jersey. This one belonged to someone else. Someone bought his jersey before he’d even ever played a single minute for the team. They flew across the continent, from Edmonton to Florida, just to watch him get drafted. It was a lot for his hazy, champagne-diluted mind to take in.

Realizing he’d just been standing there staring at the jersey, he cleared his throat once again in hopes that he could hide the unknown thoughts and emotions he was trying to reconcile. “Wow, um, I didn’t realize you could get these already.”

Millie’s father laughed, “Man, they’ve been selling these in Edmonton since they announced we’d be picking first in the draft.” Again, the feeling was overwhelming for Harry.

We’d be picking first in the draft.

To this family, and probably others in Edmonton, the Oilers were “we”. They win together, they lose together. If the Oilers pick first in the draft, they all pick first. It was their team. And now he, Harry, was a part of that “we”.

Harry reached down to sign the jersey on Millie’s back, quickly scribbling his autograph on the left side. As he straightened himself, he felt Anne move to stand beside him, apparently having sensed her son’s unease and unconscious need for his mother to join him in this moment.

“Hi, I’m Harry’s mum, Anne. Would you like me to take a picture of the four of you?” Millie’s father eagerly handed his phone to Anne and waved his wife over to be in the photo. Several photos of Harry and the family were taken, followed by a few of just Harry and Millie.

“Would you mind if I took one of Harry and Millie on my phone as well?” Anne asked as she snapped the last photo. “This is the first time Harry’s met a fan wearing his name on an Oilers jersey. We’d like to remember it.”

The family was more than happy to oblige so Anne took a few more photos on her phone, including one where Millie’s back was to the camera and the ‘STYLES’ name in full view.

It was so like his mum to understand how special the moment was and to come in and save him. He couldn’t quite articulate what he was feeling in that moment, as understanding emotions and sentimentality were not his greatest strengths, and he most definitely never would have asked to take a photo to keep for himself had she not done it.

The obvious feelings were joy and gratitude. Every day he was thankful to play the game he loved, to be successful, and to have fans that loved and supported him. It didn’t always make sense that complete strangers paid him so much attention just for playing a game, but he accepted it and always tried to show those strangers kindness in return. However, there was another feeling lingering, one that he couldn’t quite put his finger on. Looking at his mum, he knew that she knew what it was. She always knew. And certainly she would make him talk about it later.

As they separated from the family and walked toward the hotel elevators, where Gemma and Jeff were waiting, Anne grabbed onto her son’s arm, holding him close as they walked side by side.

“Do you see that they love you already, my darling?” She asked. Harry raised an eyebrow at his mum, unsure of what she was going on about. “I know you. I know that you care what people think and that you are scared to disappoint them. You just need to step out on the ice and be yourself. Just be Harry. They already love you and this is only just the beginning.”

WOW! OK. I know it’s a bit of a slow start, but I wanted this chapter to be more of an introduction to harry and the mc and to the fan culture that harry is about to experience!! I’ve already started on the next part so that should be up before Christmas! If you’ve made it this far, all I can say is that I love you and appreciate you. If you liked it, please let me know. I debated not posting this so many times (and I might even regret it later) so feedback will certainly ease my troubled mind!! I ALWAYS LOVE YOU, BUT ESPECIALLY TODAY!! xx Shan.

Harry’s Draft Day Look

talk to me about generational | fic masterlist

#wow i'm so nervous to post this #generational #harry styles writing #harry styles fanfic #harry styles series #harry styles au #harry styles x reader #hockey harry styles #athlete harry styles

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cardgames88 · 4 years ago

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How to Win at Strategic Card Games

Methods to Win at Organize Card Games

Card Games

Having been common since the 10th one hundred year, card games continue to be like popular today while they were hundreds of years past. Not only do they give hours of wonderful and entertainment, in addition they act as a emotional bridge between populations, bringing together different ethnicities, age groups and people because of all walks associated with life.

Card Games

Card games as well play a organize part in every different stage of lifestyle, from young children, by way of the older many years. We’re taught to help you play card games within their simplest form since young children, through the interests of snap, twos and ‘Happy Families’ in order to help usa learn primary along with secondary socialisation competencies. Then as a young adult, card games become more around status as they’re used in drinking mmorpgs and competitions. When adults, they’re made use of as a form of gambling or entertainment although we get older luckily they are used to keep this minds sharp.

Although card games are used meant for entertainment and interesting, there’s also some other side to cards that involves a great deal of tips, skill and methodology. Below, we’ll look into some of the card games that need strategy.

Why usually are card games so pleasing?

Card games are one of many simplest forms of matches created, compared to the loves of Monopoly and various board games that come with a lot of pieces, however they’re one of the most widely enjoyed games around the world, that it’s estimated that you have between 1, 000 and 10, 000 card games in existence across the country.

So why are that they so appealing?

Portability - As simply deck of charge cards in a small cardboard box, card games could be the easiest game to transport around and ended up traditionally popular with mariners, soldiers and backpackers. Differentially to famous games like Ludo or Snakes together with Ladders, there’s zero chance of losing every pieces and they can potentially be played on the run.

Accessibility - Because they are inexpensive and may be bought practically in places across the world, games pose no socio-economic barriers, enabling persons from all treks of life to adopt part.

Speed - There’s no tricky setting up with cards, just pull these individuals out of the box and additionally off you get. In addition , you can easily change up the game any time you’re getting tired of.

Balance of risk and skill - What’s great on the subject of card games is this whilst there is some chance involved, they’re not like games when you roll your dice and have simply no control over the effect. On the other hand, they don’t have to be as tactical as chess if you ever don’t want the adventure to be, making all of them even more versatile.

Attaching a strategy to the sport

While there is some chance to any business card game that’s experienced, using a strategy can optimise your probability of victory against ones opponents and is particularly useful when playing for cash. Whilst a solid system helps to make action more predictable if it is able to determine a probability of an final results, it also helps to retain some human malfunction elements of the game.

As per psychology, as persons we are more likely to operate emotionally rather than strategically. In this sense, efficient always betting for the good outcome when we receive a negative one, we retaliate by adding ‘good’ to be able to fix it. This is identified as Sunken Cost Fallacy and can get competitors in a downhill get out of hand before they get rid of excess the game. By adding a technique to your game, people are able to act at probability and principle, rather than emotion in addition to chance.

In addition , one other beneficial part of using a strategy is that one could practice ahead of time. If it is prepared to play along with having a solid strategy figured out, you’re more unlikely that to let ones own poker face get.

Practicing a game will enable you to develop a intuition and answer more appropriately with the real game, in lieu of acting out of stress. One of the best things about actively playing online card games including blackjack or baccarat is that you can find unlimited practice within against an competitor, before you’re willing to play for money, additionally, they enable you to work out that games best accommodates your skillset just before committing to big money, consequently login to a trustworthy operator like 888 online casino and locate which game is most beneficial for you.

What are the top strategic card games right now?

While traditional games are just as widely used as years ago, once and for all new and fascinating ranges of present day card games on the market which switching up the conventional games. Such activities include:

Cards Next to Humanity - Released in 2011, that card game became in popularity remarkably quickly. It skillfully incorporates popular earlier days culture and is an awesome game to participate in amongst friends, even though it’s not encouraged for children. One of many great things about this online game is that despite the fact that it’s easy to enjoy, it requires a certain higher level of strategy, as members must try to outwit their opponents while using the funniest answer. If you are extra tactical about this game, they’ll try to draw in the other player’s unique qualities to determine of which answer they will go with.

In addition , games just like Gloom, Boss Colossal or Choking peril are popular advanced card games that require a clear level of strategy even though still being an simple game to have fun with.

Let’s not forget customary card games, which are at this point even more accessible as they definitely can be played on line through the likes from online casinos. Activities such as bridge, holdem poker and blackjack are now able to be easily looked at in the comfort of the home or even although on the go. In addition , the main advantages of playing online involve larger jackpots together with prizes, bonus models and a handful of easily available opponents in case you’re running short.

Entire, it could be said of which card games are now gaining popularity than before when technology makes hands per hour more intuitive and additionally interactive. So , it’s time to decide on a person's strategy and get caught in.

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humansun · 3 years ago

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weekend one of joon. keyword: yoh

Written June 6th, 2022 at 12:15AM

A hefty weekend! What was done below:

Listened to Voice Hugs, validated about burnout, learned how similar I am to both Row and Viv, and entered into attachment styles 101

Read at least 10 pages of Loveboat Taipei, we got a good streak going on

Changed oil, want to learn more about car management, smog check reminders for myself, etc

Tested covid negative which is cool but I don’t know if I had it post EDC or not (more likely than not, but rode it out indoors)

Got in a loud dispute with Benz post Cheesecake Factory

Hanging out with Mom and Grandma have a very different ring to it now than it did 6-7 months ago

Making friends is a beautiful process, very thankful for Rebecca for meeting with me and hanging out

It Takes Two is the best two player game, truly

Watched Maika with the whole immediate family, hit Noodle World, Almansor, and played Horse/Parcheesi

Had dinner with Julie before getting back to Canoga Park!

The following thoughts were pondered on below:

God so many things where do I start lol

I wish people could just go tent on the lake if they wanted to and wake up in the morning while not being fearful of their safety or consequences like in Maika

Posed a question to Moon about what her most memorable part of 2022 is and I had reflected on what my answer would be. I think definitely keeping my peace of mind, meditating frequently, and getting this consistent when it comes to writing on this blog as well as developing a creative story/art in general

Creative liberation can only happen if I give myself the time and space to engage in creativity, imagination, and liberation in it

We will only experience what we are experiencing one time - I will only have yesterday one time and now it has become a loving memory that I’ll have forever. And why I never want to take any of my family and friends for granted

Learning to not play the comparison game does not only apply to me and my accomplishments but also in terms of comparing my friends to other people’s friends/family/romantic partners

I am insanely self-conscious of what people who intimidate me/folks I admire think of me and my actions

Giving myself space to be sad after heartbreak or grief is very very real

Really good one here, hanging out with Rebecca I learned that we can’t just be like “you can totally do it” (not that that’s not entirely false) but it can invalidate a person’s socialization and experience and the trauma they have gone through to not be able to do something. Very transformative

Acknowledging myself as someone who is indeed wise instead of only chasing the label

I love Benny, and it is the most complicated cozy collaborative comfortable romantic love that I have ever experienced

Being myself is my greatest skill

I actually am the sun and refreshing is a great word to describe me

I’ve been put on the Earth to do everything I do and to make the world better if I’d like to think that because I’m just here but I want to do those things because it lowkey just makes me feel good so there is no actual assigned purpose at all

I love my sister so much - she is top five after sleep, meditating, writing, and reading

The whole entire process of transitioning for the rest of 2022 - what does that look like post September? I am figuring all of that out

I’m at the Year 1 of my 10 years, of my 10,000 hours, and I have to do what I want to do so I can continue to prove to myself my capabilities

My nails are still so good this is some well spent monies

Yoh

I think my immune system and stomach are not super strong like when I was a bebe. Its ok tho

Very grateful. Good night!

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joseph-marc-blumenthal · 3 years ago

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WHAT FOR ROBINHOOD AFTER IPO AND WHY IT IS IMPORTANT FOR INVESTORS TO KNOW

On July 29, the American broker Robinhood will go public. The broker has become the main beneficiary of the retail investment boom, survived an investor riot with Reddit, and is valued more than individual players with a long history ahead of the IPO. Will he manage to stay on the crest of the wave after the IPO, says Telman Shaganz, head of the capital market investment department at Tinkoff Investments

American broker Robinhood goes public. He will do it on July 29 on the NASDAQ. According to materials for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the startup's valuation could be about $ 35 billion. The company announced the offering price in the range of $ 38-42 per share.

Robinhood is going to list 55 million shares on the Nasdaq exchange, 95% - new shares. Almost all the funds raised will go to the company, which will use them to pay off part of the debts and further develop the business. Moreover, the existing shareholders will almost completely retain their investment in Robinhood, which means they have faith in the company. The organizers of the placement will receive options to buy another 5.5 million shares. It is highly likely that they will implement them.

Finance for everyone

The Robinhood online platform has existed on the American market since 2013 and invites users to enter investments as “painlessly” as possible - or, rather, “commission-free”. For the United States, the idea became fresh and breakthrough: the old players in the brokerage market focused on the wealthiest citizens. Therefore, for each operation they took money from users - at that time it was on average about $ 10. Robinhood took a different path and offered free stock trading to private investors, thereby targeting the mass client.

The project gained fame instantly, thanks to its publication in Hacker News, and in a day the founders saw 10,000 new user registrations, and in a year - about 1 million. However, the startup did not manage to attract the first venture capital immediately - only after more than seventy refusals, but invested into it immediately Index Ventures. He also helped get other investors: in particular, Google Ventures and Andreessen Horowitz. In total, at the seed stage at the end of 2013, the startup raised $ 3 million. Further, among those who assessed the prospects of the online broker were not only the well-known funds in the Valley, but also celebrities: the tone was set by the actor and singer Jared Leto in 2014. After him, the app was "noticed" by rappers Snoop Dog and Jay-Z (he invested through his company Arrive Venture Capital), attracted by the news that Robinhood is now working with cryptocurrency. The startup at that time was valued at $ 1.3 billion.

Celebrity participation in a startup attracts both consumers (millennials and Gen Z) and investors to it. Word of mouth, in general, has become the main way of promoting the project - Robinhood never had powerful media advertising, it was not even budgeted for. Nevertheless, over the eight years of its existence, the startup has received money from 62 investors for a total of $ 5.6 billion, of which $ 3.4 billion - in 2021.

In January 2021, after the final round of $ 2.4 billion in private funding, Robinhood was valued at $ 20 billion.

The stock market rally, bitcoin's skyrocketing growth, and the private investor riot with Reddit (after which the company had to receive emergency funding) brought the brand immensely. Robinhood has become the clear beneficiary of the private investor boom at the height of the pandemic. In 2020, the number of users with assets in their accounts has more than doubled. Growth continues this year. In the first quarter alone, it was 44% compared to the end of 2020. There are no exact data for the second quarter yet. The company predicts that the number of users with assets in their accounts will grow by another 25% QoQ.

You can earn on a free application

Transactions with most of the assets are free for Robinhood users (the project has a “premium” subscription, which gives access to more transactions). The broker charges the commission not from users, but from market makers for the order flow. It looks like this: Robinhood receives an application from a client and then sends it not directly to the exchange, but to a large wholesale player (market maker). This is often a company that trades high-frequency algorithms. The market maker, in turn, collects thousands of such orders and sends one large one to the exchange. Due to its scale, it significantly reduces costs and can also get the best price on the exchange. At the same time, Robinhood fulfills customer orders at a higher price in order to make a profit on the difference and pay for Robinhood's services to attract orders. Despite the overwhelming majority of investments in stocks, Robinhood earns the most not from them, but from trading options - options spreads are higher, which means commissions too.

Is the assessment fair

Robinhood's competitors are traditional brokerage houses - Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, e-Trade, and startups such as Webull, Sofi, and Acorns. The table shows that Robinhood can be valued much more expensive than the larger, traditional players in the field of asset management. And he shows much more significant growth.

There are several reasons for this: firstly, the idea still continues to attract the audience. According to the results of the first quarter of 2021, the startup has 18 million active users, of which 17.7 million are active monthly. Half of them are trying to invest for the first time.

In comparison with old US brokerage houses (such as Fidelity Investments and others), the numbers do not look the highest; these market players have many times more assets in dollar terms. However, Robinhood has a more active customer base - the number of downloads of the application is in the millions, not thousands, as in competitors, and for two to three months the application was in the first place in downloads in the American App Store (surpassed Tik Tok, Facebook, and others) ...

The users of the service have a very high frequency of trading and the number of transactions, and due to the large turnover - as well as small orders - in fact, all the activity on the markets are created, and liquidity grows.

Robinhood's portfolio monetization is also significantly higher. And this is the key reason why investors, still quite a young startup, value it several times more expensive than other market players. In addition, Robinhood is still a fintech project, and not just a financial company, which also adds to its attractiveness against the background of other American brokers.

Given the high growth rates of Robinhood, the company may place itself at an estimate of $ 40 billion, rather than $ 35 billion. Compare with other promising fintech, which, like Robinhood, are yet to go public.

Possible Drivers for Robinhood's Further Growth

First, the growth of the audience. Now the application is used by about 20 million people, whose average age is 31, that is, they are mostly millennials, and according to the latest data from the US Census Bureau, there are 72 million of them in the States, or 92 million, according to Goldman Sachs. This means that the growth potential is still huge. In addition, the broker is currently working only in the United States and, in the event of geographic expansion, can significantly increase the client base.

In addition, you can expect an increase in the average customer account in the future. This can happen as the audience matures and their accumulations grow, as well as new products and services are launched. Currently, a Robinhood client holds an average of $ 5,000 on an account, while traditional brokerage houses have this figure measured in hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Another driver is the extension of the offer. The broker announced in May that it is launching a platform for private investors to participate in IPOs alongside huge Wall Street funds.

Prospects after the IPO

It is important to understand that the past year and the beginning of this year were extraordinary. Until now, Robinhood has devoted all its efforts to supporting growth in the United States, and the current very limited functionality of the site was enough. With the funds raised during the public offering, the broker will receive resources for the development of new products and services (adding new financial assets to the site, its own payment service, etc.), as well as expanding the geography. Now he only works in the USA. This can smooth out the transition period after explosive growth.

Among the favorable factors is the maturation of the core audience - millennials - which may be followed by an increase in investments.

Robinhood's reputation as a platform for speculative deals could limit this positive effect. Excessive attention from regulators also creates risks - they can introduce potential restrictions that complicate the work of a startup. In early July, Robinhood received a record $ 70 million fine from FINRA for harming millions of clients. FINRA investigated the actions of Robinhood and came to the conclusion that since the fall of 2016 the broker has incorrectly informed users about the possibility of entering into transactions with margin, about the number of funds on clients' accounts, their purchasing power, and the risk of losses in options. The company incorrectly reported negative account balances to some of its clients.

The attention of regulators can pose a threat to the entire business model, in which the main source of income is the payment of market makers for orders.

Also, do not forget that the competition in the brokerage market is growing. Large brokers not only reduce commissions but also consolidate. For example, Charles Schwab acquired TD Ameritrade, and Morgan Stanley bought the broker E-Trade. In addition, new, but already well-known players are entering the market.

And new players are not asleep: there are already projects that may press Robinhood in the future. For example, the Acorns application, where users do not make their own decisions about where to invest, but trust "artificial intelligence". The algorithm makes investment decisions based on user preferences. You don't need to spend a lot of time to figure out where to invest, the task is simplified even more, and this is what consumers are striving for.

#Vivian Blumenthal #BluLife #Joseph Marc Blumenthal

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gokul2181 · 4 years ago

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international hockey: An Olympic hockey champion and a Corona warrior: Martin Haner reflects on challenges in the Covid era | Hockey News

New Post has been published on https://jordarnews.in/international-hockey-an-olympic-hockey-champion-and-a-corona-warrior-martin-haner-reflects-on-challenges-in-the-covid-era-hockey-news/

international hockey: An Olympic hockey champion and a Corona warrior: Martin Haner reflects on challenges in the Covid era | Hockey News

NEW DELHI: An Olympic gold medallist and a doctor rolled into one, Germany‘s hockey ace Martin Haner never stopped ‘defending’ even when sports came to a halt for close to six months. The difference was that instead of a hockey stick in hand against the converging opposition players, he wielded the stethoscope in his country’s fight against the coronavirus. In European sports culture, players don’t compromise on academics for sports, maybe because the game is not as professional as it has lately become in India — which is why reaching the level Haner has attained becomes harder and therefore more commendable. But what he encountered over the last five months, when he switched from the operation theatre as an orthopedic surgeon to the intensive care unit, was unprecedented for medical professionals world over. Having said that, watching the pandemic unfold from close quarters, Haner is proud that Germany reacted in a better way compared to the other countries. Last month, the 32-year-old Haner took his doctor’s coat off to wear his Germany jersey when international hockey made a return after a 199-day break because of the pandemic. The Germans hosted world champions Belgium for a two-match FIH Pro League tie in Dusseldorf. Germany were trounced 1-6 in the opening match, while they managed a shootout win in the second after holding the Red Lions to a 1-1 draw in the regulation period. Haner admits that he was both excited and a little apprehensive to play while the Covid-19 pandemic remains prevalent, and the doctor stuck his neck out to admit that travelling longer distances to play hockey presents a greater “risk of infection”. The Berliner HC defender, though, is looking forward to the Olympics in 2021, for which he has extended his hockey career by a year.

(Haner, with possibly face-mask marks visible under his eyes, earned his 250th international cap in Game 1 vs Belgium – Honamas Facebook Photo) In an exclusive interview with Timesofindia.com, the German veteran opened up both as a doctor and as a player in these unprecedented times. Excerpts… Germany and Belgium were the first teams to resume international hockey while the coronavirus is still a pandemic. Take us through all that went into getting the team back together again to train and then those two match-days after months. It was a strange feeling to get back together with the national team after such a long time. We haven’t had any training sessions together since February. Before we met, of course, all the players and staff were tested for Covid-19 (all were negative). We were very isolated in the hotel and had our own hotel corridor. There were clear agreements on hygiene and we were only allowed to leave the hotel to play hockey. Before the matches against Belgium took place, we were tested again 48 hours before the game (all negative) and the games were played without spectators. Since we are still in the middle of the pandemic, it was a strange feeling; but on the other hand, it was also nice to be able to play international matches again after such a long time. Was there still some fear somewhere in the back of the players’ minds? Our medical department and our manager have made all the arrangements for our training camp and informed us about all the special features, so that we as experienced players did not have to take any fears. Everything was very well planned and luckily there were no positive cases. You are a doctor as well. How do you analyse the return of sports, especially international hockey, amid this pandemic? Does the virus still pose serious threats to sportspersons? I think this question has to be viewed in a very differentiated way. Outdoor sports do not seem to be a particularly high risk of Covid-19 infection. But longer trips are necessary both in the German Bundesliga and even more so in international tournaments. The risk of infection is certainly much greater. Of course, as a doctor and a family man, I have in the back of my mind that I can infect myself and then possibly infect other people. That’s why we try to adhere to all the guidelines wherever possible, but I am very skeptical about long journeys in the current situation

(Haner in Game 1 vs Belgium – FIH Facebook Photo) Coming to the matches against Belgium, your team turned it around after a below-par outing in the first match to salvage a fighting draw in the second, before winning it in the shootout. How satisfying were your first competitive days in almost six months? It was very nice, but the euphoria was still subdued for me because unfortunately the end of the pandemic is not yet in sight and we don’t know how long we can play. In the first game against Belgium, we played three of four quarters well, and the result (1-6) certainly doesn’t reflect the game. But, of course, it was nice to end our first trip together in the second game with a win after shootout. The Pro League is going to run up to the door of the Olympics in Tokyo. What are Germany’s plans, who have slipped out of the top five in FIH rankings? At the moment, the world ranking is certainly not our main focus. We want to try and prepare as best we can for the Olympic Games next year under the current circumstances, and the Pro League is, of course, extremely important in development, as you are only challenged there against the best teams in the world. There were some talks around you ending your hockey career but I read somewhere that you may extend it by an year to play the Tokyo Games. What’s your current state of mind on that? My plan was to end my hockey career after the Olympics and concentrate fully on my family and my job as a doctor. As a result of the postponement, everything has now shifted by a year and I thought for a long time whether I should continue. After talking to my wife and my boss at work, I received their support in doing sports for another year, for which I am very grateful. Going back a few months, how did your life as an orthopedic surgeon change during these times of a viral pandemic that required almost all the doctors to attend to Covid-19 patients? I work as an orthopedist in an operational area. Due to Covid-19, non-vital operations were banned, so that all of a sudden this was completely eliminated. Then I switched to the intensive care unit. Fortunately, we in Germany have the situation under control relatively well compared to other countries, and we never had more than 5-6 Covid-19 patients in our intensive care unit. But, of course, it was and is a completely different area of activity (in my medical profession) than usual. Did your experience as a sportsperson help you deal with the state of unprecedented emergency inside the ICU? To be honest, it was never as bad in our clinic as when you watched pictures from Italy or Spain on the television. We were very well prepared.

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saxonbettsunit10 · 6 years ago

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evaluation part 1

PORTFOLIO

One of the ways I have showed my work within a portfolio Is having a updated portfolio of my best works.The social platform I used is Behance, which is a social platform for creatives, used by creatives to show their on-going works like a creative cv for others to see on a professional website.This platform is created by adobe which is a creative software company which does video-editing, graphic creating, photo editing, website creation.The advantages of Behance is its a professional website so can be a advantage to getting a job, however its not as well-known as typical social platforms such as instagram and facebook.Which can be easier to be recognised however can be unprofessional of the typical demographic and usage of the sites.

i use instagram more than behance because instagram is more of a used social platform instead of behance. Instagram has more of a larger demographic of users and easier to be ‘discovered’ on the explore page than behance because of the instagram algorithm to show my work with new users. I can support that by my own personal experience on the instagram app as I found photographers myself this way.An other way is by using hashtags where on instagram you can search a hashtag which works like a filter of anything which includes the hashtags (shown below).

My creative portfolio has expanded the past year from me expanding my creative use in material and processes.I have during the last year used/experimented with film and large format camera (5x4) which was processed on photo-paper and inverted on photoshop. (shown below from my darkroom project)

I have also developed the quality of my images by post production techniques increasing and by me planning my shoots from clothing, models, lighting positions, poses.( shown below with my studio assignment )

I also developed the year by creating a contacts for myself by putting myself out there with businesses and in the music industry as well experimenting with editing techniques. (shown below)

I use the social platforms; instagram and facebook, to constantly showcase my ongoing improvements of work.As these platforms tend to be popular meaning more people see my works which could be potential contacts.

UNIVERSITY:

PERSONAL STATEMENTS (DRAFTS WHICH WILL BE STATED)

draft one:

I would like to study photography further as I have a passion for photography whether I can just appreciate that art form and the meaning behind the images or inspires me to create my own version of that image. I would like to study photography in university to expand my knowledge and gain more experience before becoming freelance doing hopefully revolving some type of media either editorial or gig photography. My favourite genres of photography are gig photography and editorial fashion. To start pursuing my aspiration I have shot gig photography, some portraiture and fashion shoots in order to build my portfolio up to prove my potential in a wide range of genres. My current studies in level 3 photography has inspired and widened my variety of photography I enjoy as well as camera skills I learnt.

I have been interested in photography since exploring simple camera techniques in art sessions and photography workshops during my GCSEs. I started taking photographs in my own time and began to really become interested in the field. This helped me decide that I wanted to explore photography further, so I enrolled on a level 3 extended diploma in Photography 18 months.

Since joining the course I have explored many different genres of photography . My favourite style(s) of photography is fashion and gig photography because of the freedom of how I shoot being freelance also the interaction with people.

My predicted grades are DDD, however hopefully I can push myself for higher which would be great to achieve.

The course has allowed me to engage with a subject that I am passionate in and I think my predicted grade of triple distinction reflects my passion and dedication to photography.

I intend for university to push me to be more of an independently creative person and improve my critical judgement to get the best out of my works and gain more skills in a creative aspect.

I think university will present academic and technical challenges that will help me succeed my goal of becoming a freelance photographer as well as giving me a wider skill set and helping me to understand photography as a visual language.

I’d love to widen my use of analogue photography, I have previously done analogue work and enjoyed the whole practical process of developing by hand my prints/negatives. I also enjoy aspects of working in studio for example the control over everything however I like using natural light and the unknown/freedom of working on a location. Mainly my portraiture is based outdoors as that’s where I’m most comfortable shooting within however currently this year, I am aiming to push my limits to expand my photography out my comfort zone.

I believe that university will allow me to explore analogue photography more so than in a college environment. We have been introduced to large format 5x4 and I want to explore medium and large format more within my art practice and personal projects.

I have pursued my interest within portraiture, fashion photography, gig photography by shooting in my free time. I tend to be critical with my work as I want to only show what I’m the proudest of. However, I should show my progression over time (I tend to post it all on social media as an online portfolio).

I am very interested in gig photography and have recently photographed a small band called lefthand lane and like identifying a band through music photography. I like the technical and physical challenges this type of photography presents. You always have to think on your feet and try and capture the right moment that showcases the style and energy of the performance.

My inspirations I aspire from are people like Rachel Gulotta, Joel Meyerowitz.I also watch videos of behind the scenes of shoots or tutorial videos to help me improve my work. Channels such as mango street and Jessica Kobeissi. This helps motivate me to improve as a better photographer which is something I enjoy as this widens my photography knowledge and techniques such as shooting at a low angle. These are skills I can take away to improve and develop my photography. To show my unique style compared to other photographers as photography is a competitive creative industry to be a part of. Good

The transferrable skills that I have are time management; even when things don’t go to plan within personal and project-based problems which is also problem solving because things don’t go to plan and I have to find a way around those to get what I want done. Also, I’m a good team player and enjoy working as a team throughout as you can bounce ideas and responsibilities off each other, however I can achieve independently also which has aspects I enjoy as I can make my ideas happen without a compromise. I have good organisation skills as you need to pre plan shoots such as the weather, locations and organise what tasks are more urgent to complete such as coursework. I previously volunteered for a head trauma charity shop where I took on extra responsibilities such as personal responsibility over tasks whilst being there, skills I demonstrated there was thinking on my feet, multi-tasking, good communication skills. Revise this, make it shorter, don’t repeat yourself, maybe reword.

I’m a critical thinker as for assignments you are given all the same thing so you have to think and shoot and design differently something unconventional which can be a risk and more time consuming but rewarding as you’re thinking more critically. For example, if someone told you to shoot street photography you could shoot cars or roads, etc or you can focus on demographic of who’s on the streets such as teenagers with mental health issues or documentary style homelessness which you’d typically wouldn’t think of as soon as you hear the term street photography.

I think it’s important to be critical in my approach to research and project work. I feel that researching wider cultural and contextual sources helps your work communicate your ideas more. For example explaining the history of photography

I am not 100% sure of what I want to do, but I know that university will help me figure this out. I am looking forward to taking the next step in my life to becoming independent and a more creative photographer.

draft 2:

bold is what changed

I would like to study photography further as I have a passion for photography whether I can just appreciate that art form and the meaning behind the images or inspires me to create my own version of that image. I would like to study photography in university to expand my knowledge and gain more experience before becoming freelance doing hopefully revolving some type of media either editorial or gig photography. I have been interested in photography since I started taking photographs in my own time and began to really become interested in the field. This helped me decide that I wanted to explore photography further, so I enrolled on a level 3 extended diploma in Photography.

My favourite genres of photography are gig photography and editorial fashion. To start pursuing my aspiration I have shot gig photography, some portraiture and fashion shoots in order to build my portfolio up to prove my potential in a wide range of genres. My current studies in level 3 photography has inspired and widened my variety of photography I enjoy.Since joining the course, I have explored many different genres of photography such as studio and documentary. My favourite style of photography is gig photography and editorial photography – because as I like the documentation aspect of gig of capturing an event which even through a image you can feel the energy that moment shared.Also I enjoy editorial as I like the dramatic, creative shots but with a contextual reason behind.

The course has allowed me to engage with a subject that I am passionate in and I think my predicted grade of triple distinction reflects my passion and dedication to photography and the workload presented at FE level.

I intend for university to push me to be more of an independently creative person and improve my critical judgement to get the best out of my work. I think university will present academic and technical challenges that will help me succeed in my goal of becoming a freelance photographer as well as giving me a wider skill set alongside helping me to understand photography as a visual language.

I’d love to broaden my use of analogue photography, I have previously done analogue work. I enjoyed the practical process of developing my prints/negatives. And I believe that university will push me to explore analogue photography in depth past college level. Previously I have been introduced to 5x4 (large format) and like to explore medium and large format in depth in my art practice and personal projects. I also enjoy aspects of studio for example the control over everything. My portraiture is often based outdoors as that’s where I’m most comfortable shooting, however currently this year I am aiming to expand my photography out my comfort zone.

I am very interested in gig photography and have recently photographed a selection of artists and enjoy that you always have to think on your feet and try and capture the right moment that showcases the style and energy of the performance at the time.

My inspirations are photographers like Rachel Gulotta, Joel Meyerowitz. I also watch videos of behind the scenes of shoots or tutorial videos to help me improve my work. This helps motivate me to improve as a better photographer which is something I enjoy as this widens my photography knowledge and techniques such as shooting at a low angle. These are skills I can take away to improve and develop my photography.

The transferrable skills that I have are time management; even when things don’t go to plan within personal and project-based problems. Also, I’m a good team player and enjoy working as a team throughout as you can bounce ideas and responsibilities off each other, however I can achieve independently which has aspects such as I can make my ideas happen without a compromise. I have good organisation skills as you need to pre-plan for shoots. I previously volunteered for a head trauma charity where I took on extra responsibilities such as personal responsibility over tasks, skills I also demonstrated was multi-tasking, good communication skills.

my final personal statement:

I would like to study photography further as I have a passion for visual language and capturing moments. I have been interested in photography since I first started taking photographs on my phone in my own time, trying to capture and document the world around me, however the quality and my own inexperience limited me, I began to really become interested in the field. To develop as a photographer I decided to enrol on a level 3 extended diploma in Photography.My photographic interest lies in the music culture, I have shot a few local gigs, which has helped my confidence in shooting such events. I love capturing the moment and being able to show the energy of it. I also have a new appreciation for location fashion photography, and have enjoyed the unpredictability of the genre, which has forced me to have better time management and organisation skills.

My current studies in level 3 photography has continued to inspire and widen the variety of photography I enjoy. Since joining the course, I have explored many genres of photography from commercial to fine art. The course has allowed me to engage with a subject I am passionate about and I think my predicted grade of triple distinction reflects my passion and dedication to photography with the workload presented at FE level. I like to study photography in university to expand my knowledge and gain more experience before becoming freelance, hopefully creating a career in gig photography.

I intend for university to push me to be a more independent creative person and improve my critical reflection to get the best out of future work. I think university will present academic and technical challenges that will help me succeed in my goal of becoming a freelance photographer as well as giving me a wider skill set and time to develop my photographic practice and visual language. I'd love to broaden my use of analogue photography, as I enjoyed previous analogue work such as practical process of developing my 35mm prints/negatives. I have been introduced to 5x4 (large format) and like to explore medium and large format in depth in my art practice and personal projects. I believe that university will push me to explore analogue photography in depth past college level. Previously I also enjoy aspects of studio for example the control over everything within the studio. My portraiture/fashion is often based outdoors as that's where I'm most comfortable shooting, however currently this year I am aiming to expand my photography out my comfort zone. My inspirations are photographers like Rachel Gulotta, Joel Meyerowitz. I also watch videos of shoots to help me improve my work. This helps motivate me to improve as a better photographer which is what I enjoy as this widens my photography knowledge such as shooting at a low angle. These are skills I can take away to improve and develop my photography.

The transferrable skills that I have are time management; even when things don't go to plan within personal and project-based problems. Also, I'm a good team player and enjoy working as a team; you can bounce ideas and roles off each other, however I can achieve independently which has aspects such as I can make my ideas happen without a compromise. I have good organisation skills as you need to pre-plan for shoots. I previously volunteered for a head trauma charity where I took on extra responsibilities such as personal responsibility over tasks, skills I also demonstrated was multi-tasking and good communication skills.

I am not 100% sure of what I want to do, but university will help me figure this out. I am looking forward to taking the next step in my life into becoming an independent and creative photographer.

Steps I had to take to apply for university was apply through UCAS providing my education history and a personal statement to set me apart from other applicants. I had to research the universities I wanted to go to, in order to see if It was suited to me such as what you'd learn and why of learning (coursework- practical to theory work.)

Personally, the most challenging aspect was the personal statement as it’s hard to say everything you want to say, being interesting but straight to the point to prove your worth on a course in less than 4000 characters (including spaces).Also choosing a university which is more personally better for me as Manchester and Leeds are similar in quality of success after the course ect. however Leeds is more practical then theory which i struggle in however Manchester has more opportunities outside of the university

I chose my final portfolio images by putting them in one folder then narrowing them down to what I like the most to the photo limit, when I did that I asked my peers if they like the sequence as well.

I chose these images as I believe they show my potential at my best to date.

I was prepared with my portfolio by having my peers and tutors looking at my portfolio pointing out which images didn’t fit and help with the sequencing of my portfolio.

how i prepared for my interview was to use my least favourite university as a ‘practise interview’ as i’m less disappointed if i didn’t get in.

part 2:

https://saxonbettsunit10.tumblr.com/post/184454563765/evaluation-2

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eikotheblue · 8 years ago

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Darkness and Silence (on Aphantasia)

(This is an effortpost about my experiences with my self-diagnosed Aphantasia. While I believe everything that I’m saying and the personal stories are all accurate, I’ve not been formally diagnosed, the condition is understudied, and introspection is hard. It’s also very long, especially past the readmore.)

For me, one of the most obvious and powerful ideas in LW-rationalism is the typical mind fallacy, or the (often mistaken) belief that other people’s internal experiences are similar to yours when presented with the same stimuli. Reading that sentence really doesn’t convey how big of a deal this is, but I don’t think more words from me can do really do it justice; consider instead reading this post and the comments for a small glimpse into how different brains and experiences can be.

When I first read that post, the thing I thought of immediately was smell. I’ve never had a sense of smell that produces anything that looks like meaningful input, and until I was about 13 or so I just assumed that nobody could smell much of anything, or that I’d never been exposed to a strong scent. (Then I encountered Axe, and realized there was a stimuli that really was invisible to me). I could talk a lot about lack of smell, but not in this post, because while that was the first atypical mind characteristic I identified in myself, it is far less impactful than Aphantasia.

Aphantasia is described as “a condition where one does not possess a functioning mind's eye and cannot visualize imagery”. This describes my life experiences very well: I cannot recall or construct mental imagery, even slightly. To demonstrate this, I usually ask people to close their eyes and imagine a square. (Feel free to do so now, and lock the image in your head if you wish). I then ask questions like “What color is the square?” “What color is the background?” “How big is it, relative to your field of view?”, and people generate answers based on the square they imagined. I am always fascinated by these responses; if you perform the experiment and reblog, I’d love to see (either in reblog text or tags) the details of your square.

There is no square in my head. If you ask me to imagine a square, I see no image, only the concept of a 4-sided regular polygon. If you then ask me “what color it is”, I can pick a color at random (or one of my favorites), but the true answer is “None”; there’s no square to have a color. My thoughts and memories exist only as text, with webs of association and observation attached. If I’m asked to remember what something looked like, all that I can retrieve is thoughts that describe the thing I’ve seen, or facts that I know about it, if any.

Observant readers might notice that while the title of this post is “Darkness and Silence”, so far all that’s been discussed is the inability to visualize. Something that I hadn’t realized until very recently is that Aphantasia is more general than the name implies, at least for me (and others online by anecdote). I can’t directly recall any sensory input from memory, or create sensory input-like experiences ex nihilo. I can’t imagine or recall any sound, taste, touch, or even pain, all of which I have heard other people tell me they can do. From my point of view, it feels unbelievable and incredible that people can do this, and it is hard not to be jealous of that ability. Inside my head, it is dark, silent, still.

Aphantasia is not an inability to receive sensory input: i can still see/hear/etc, and describe what i’m experiencing. It is also not the inability to store sensory input at all, because I can recognize things that I’ve heard and seen before, and after recognizing them I can access details that I wouldn’t have been able to before (this comes up most often in music and other time-component experiences). Additionally, I can dream, and my dreams include images that I saw while awake, which means that the information is stored, just not directly retrievable. My dreams are all very visual, and have other sensory components as well. However, memory of the contents of dreams evaporate almost immediately: since I’m not awake to fully process what I’m seeing, all that gets ‘stored’ is fleeting bits of information, and the emotional state it ended in.

According to the data I’ve seen (which was of limited quality, since Aphantasia is very understudied), visualization and image recall ability vary a great deal from person to person: eidetic or “photographic” memory at the high end, and Aphantasia at the very other. The only place I’ve seen offering stats suggests that the incidence rate is around 2-5%, but the actual numbers could be very different: if I had read slightly different blogs or made slightly different friends, I never would have known!

Going through life without noticing that you have Aphantasia is incredibly easy: people have been doing it for probably longer than recorded history. There just isn’t a lot of evidence that would cause the casual observer to notice the problem: it’s really easy to excuse descriptions of a “mind’s eye” or discussions of visualization as flowery descriptions of the Aphantasia-equivalent skills that fill the gaps, and to just assume that the other variances are just weird quirks, because they don’t feel connected; without the central problem pointed out, it’s just an unlinked set of “things I appear to suck at”.

For me, the biggest observable was memory, and particularly what I called “raw memorization” growing up. I am good at remembering things I understand conceptually, but there are times when information (a chart, dates, a list of names in order, a paragraph of text) just needs to be stored for recall. I am terrible at this! I can manage, if the information is in the form of bindable text (Examples of bindable text are hard to give: a catchy phrase or good song lyrics are bindable, but a list of names and dates are not). If I need to memorize a chart or set of data I don’t get conceptual links from, I don’t really have a long-term solution. In school, I would design a compression system to convert the information into a sentence, reread the sentence over and over right before the test, and write it down as the test started. Then I’d (hopefully) remember my decompression, and manually draw out the info I need.

I was always quick to take pride in my mental abilities, so when I realized that I was extremely bad at memorization, I tried to learn to train it. And what I found was... advice on memory palaces, a technique for mapping specific memories to specific parts of an imaginary landscape. There were a lot of variations on this, but everything I read basically boiled down to “Step 1. Unfold your wings. Step 2. Practice flapping until you’ve built up enough muscle to fly”; the basic ability required to use the technique was something that it is literally impossible for my brain to do.

And, weirdly enough, this still wasn’t enough evidence to make me figure it out. I got angry and frustrated with advice like this, and eventually quit bitterly, concluding that it was snake oil stuff, or memorization couldn’t really be taught meaningfully, but there were people who were very good at it and thought they could teach it. I gave up on improving and (for the most part) avoided classes and situations where that kind of memorization would be a necessary skill. It took me reading about the original experiment to even consider that I might have it, and over two year’s worth of idle thoughts, research, and conversations with ordinary people about their sensory recall for me to really start to understand just how different (and... diminished) my experiences are.

Aphantasia impacts my life in several ways, almost all of them negatively. I can’t conjure up stimuli to stave off boredom, or crowd out intrusive thoughts. I can’t listen to music in my head (though i can hum or sing it subvocally). I can’t compare 2 images without seeing them side by side. It takes me a lot of exposure to learn enough about a face to describe it, or tell it apart from a similar one. I won’t remember licence plates, too many different passwords, or the birthdays and ages of the people I care about. I get lost very easily, and can’t remember directions well, or make adjustments that deviate meaningfully from the path. Without GPS, I will frequently take a route that is 5 or 10 minutes longer if the alternative is something less familiar or easier to miss turns on.

Gaming is an important part of my life, and Aphantasia does not spare me there, either. It’s easy for me to get hopelessly lost in any game without a good map or obvious landmarks/anchors; I get turned around and spend a lot of time backtracking. Being attacked by something I’m not looking at is terrifying; while I do have object permanence, I can’t visualize my surroundings or keep track of positions that I can’t see. This experience is awful enough that I will almost never play games that regularly cause it. (Overwatch and other pvp shooters, but also many types of single player horror games). Being unable to recall images also poses problems in myst style adventure or puzzle games, although screenshots are a good way to cheat at this.

To be fair to Aphantasia, there are times that being unable to recall stimulus is useful. I am extremely visually squeamish on several axes (gore, blood, disfigured people, distorted / warped visuals of people), and this would be a much bigger problem if I could recall that kind of image. Similarly, I can’t get songs stuck in my head; until a few days ago, I hadn’t really understood what it meant to have a song stuck in your head. Idle thoughts often remind me of a note progression that i then hum out or think about, but this never really bothered me that much, and I had been lowkey confused about how much it appeared to bother other people, until I learned it was a completely different experience for them. And lastly, the details of my nightmares quickly fade, which limits how upsetting they can be.

But I won’t end on that note, because it would feel like lying. I hate Aphantasia. I hate that my brain is so broken. I hate that I can’t do these things that are so basic for so many people. I hate that I’ll never be able to develop these skills or experience these things. but more than anything, i hate being trapped in my head nothing but my thoughts; i hate that all that it is to be me is a fragile flow of words on a backdrop of terrifying emptiness, of darkness and silence.

#effortpost #aphantasia #original acid dream do not steal #neurodiversity #typical mind fallacy #longpost #sorry this isn't like great #but it was really hard to write and something that matters a lot to me #i hope it's interesting enough to be worth the read #and sorry about the negativity especially at the end #but this is not a part of me i will celebrate #not even ironically like ADHD #because there's no cure #it's just something i can't do that i wish i could

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ryanjdonovan · 8 years ago

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Donovan's Oscar Prognostication 2017

What can we expect at the Oscars this year? I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you can expect a lot of sociopolitical commentary from underqualified celebrities. If you want to know what else to expect (like who will win), read on for my 18th annual Oscar predictions.

BEST PICTURE:

SHOULD WIN: Hell Or High Water WILL WIN: La La Land GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Sully INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: The Nice Guys

Do I think La La Land SHOULD win Best Picture? Let me put it this way: It's a movie about idiots chasing idiot dreams for idiot reasons with idiot excuses, spending time with other like-minded idiots. If I ran the marketing campaign, my tagline on the poster would be: "Everybody has dreams. Nobody achieves them. Grow up." I think the audience's opinions of the characters in the film can be categorized into 3 groups: 1) Struggling actors or musicians, who are gushing, "These people capture EXACTLY why I want to be an actor/musician, including all the passion and heartbreak!" 2) Actors or musicians who have actually made it, who are thinking, "These people are morons." 3) Adults with real responsibilities, who are like, "Are you f---ing kidding me with these people?" I couldn't help but think of Judge Smails: "Well, the world needs ditch-diggers too." Let's just say, I'm clearly not the target audience. If you want a movie with a similar theme, stronger chemistry, and frankly, better music, watch 500 Days Of Summer. So, the more appropriate question: Do I think La La Land WILL win Best Picture? Almost undoubtedly. Hollywood is practically falling all over itself to congratulate this film… which is, of course, essentially congratulating itself. The fact that it tied the record for most Oscar nominations ever (14!) is absurd and obscene. Between the critical praise, huge box office take, cleaning up precursor awards, and being one of the few nominees that's not cripplingly depressing, it's a pretty safe bet to win the big prize. (Incidentally, the biggest question of all after seeing the film was: How old is Tom Everett Scott??)

Most people will tell you that there are two films with a (small) chance to knock out La La Land for Best Picture: Moonlight and Manchester By The Sea. This is not true. There is a film with a chance to pull an upset, but it's the underdog about underdogs: Hidden Figures. How could this happen? For starters, La La Land wasn't nominated for a Screen Actors Guild Best Cast award, and only one other film in that situation has ever gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture (Braveheart, in 1995) - so history is not on its side. And when there IS an upset for Best Picture, it's often the SAG Cast award that portends it (remember Spotlight, Crash, or Shakespeare In Love?). And this year's SAG Cast winner? Hidden Figures. (On the other hand, the SAG Cast winner only goes on to win the Oscar about half the time.) Most importantly, Hidden Figures is gaining steam at the right time: It's been universally praised by reviewers and audiences, it's the highest grossing of all the nominees, and it's a triumphant, crowd-pleasing story that stands out against most of the other films which are, put simply, huge bummers. Detractors argue that it's a little predictable and safe, leans heavily on social context, borrows too liberally from the Apollo 13 playbook, and doesn't have a whole lot of bite to it. But given the harshness of the competition, these may not be such negative things. It's not a bad time for a feel-good, heroic, unifying, patriotic, adversity-conquering, well-crafted story based on true events. It may just be enough to steal the Oscar.

The most fashionable upset pick by the pundits is Moonlight. In my opinion, it's a strong film, but it's too enigmatic to be a serious threat for Best Picture (I think it will have to settle for an Acting award and a Screenplay award). It's an existential puzzle box - it poses a lot of questions, but doesn't necessarily answer many. It gives us a sense of the main character, a hint, but leaves a lot up to possibility. It ultimately leaves us wanting more - which is not necessarily a bad thing, but it doesn't help if we are looking for a sense of closure or finality to the story. (It also doesn't help that the main boy in the story endures more horrible things than any child ever should.) The main question the film poses to the boy (and to everyone) is: What makes a person who they are? And beyond that, it asks: Is a person a product of their environment? Their relationships? What they say? What they don't say? Their actions? If it's none of these things (or all of these things), then how is a person supposed to know who they truly are? Is it one thing, or many things? Does it evolve, or do they always have one constant true self? Is it even possible to know? Moonlight presents us with a main character who's trying to answer all these questions, but doesn't say much at all. It's an interesting choice, and a maddening one. We get a sense that maybe at the end he finally knows the answers to the questions, but he's not about to tell us. (And if YOU can answer any of these big questions, then congratulations, you've solved humanity.)

The other film favored by a few critics is Manchester By The Sea - the one where the filmmaker decided, "I'm going to make a movie about the most depressing family ever." While it's competent and convincingly acted, it's hard to get real enjoyment out of it. There are some moments of lightness and humor (which are dearly welcome), but it basically starts with melancholy, takes a couple dips, takes a huge dive in the middle, and then only mildly recovers. What makes it worse is that you expect that the story will go in a fulfilling direction, but it never does. There's a certain sense of 'Jeeezus, what now?' throughout the movie. At a certain point, it's like, Are there any more terrible things that could possibly happen to this family? Do they have a dog that will get mutilated by a coyote or something? The 'Life is messy' rationale in movies only goes so far with me. And more than that, I think there are a few cases where the script is overly-manipulative, and doesn't feel true to the story. Ultimately, I came away thinking: I bet the town would be gorgeous if it wasn't in a Kenneth Lonergan movie, and apparently "F-ck you" is how you say "I'm so sorry for your loss" in Massachusetts.

My personal choice for Best Picture would be Hell Or High Water, the modern Western that came out of nowhere. Most of the film's critical praise is for taking a tired, hackneyed genre and invigorating it in a slick new way. I fully agree, but I'd take it a couple steps further. It makes what is ostensibly a farcical adventure of epically bad decision-making seem sympathetic and understandable, if not downright inevitable. Bottom line, it's a fun ride: good old-fashioned cops and robbers, where the bad guys are good and the good guys are interesting. I'll get more into this film, and my other favorite, Arrival, in the other categories.

Shane Black has mastered a lot of things, first as a screenwriter, now as a director: seedy faux-glam noir, slick one-liners, overconfident buffoons, the LA crime caper, idiot heroes and the straight players who balance them out, and most of all, fun movies. His type of humor is literally one of the reasons why I watch movies. In a perfect world, the release of each of his new movies would be a highly-anticipated event. (We can probably leave Iron Man 3 out of this conversation; while it was a solid action pic and had some of Black's signature irreverence, it was squarely a studio-machine product, not an auteur piece.) Unfortunately, Black has somehow been relegated to being an afterthought compared to mainstream Hollywood. He's not a guy that fits the mainstream studio mold, he's too offbeat and puckish for mega-hits, and he's too "big idea" for the indie world. In my aforementioned perfect world, Black's film The Nice Guys would have been nominated for Best Picture (among other categories). The excellent comedy about a pair of mismatched, bumbling, low-rent private investigators tweaks convention, stereotypes, and tropes. It generally eschews sentimentality, except for a few key moments (that feel earned). Unfortunately, it got clobbered at the Box Office. Maybe Black can boost his career by trimming budgets; The Nice Guys was a pricy $50 million, but it probably didn't have to cost that much. (On the other hand, would it have been nearly as good for $2 million starring Mark Duplass and Jake Johnson? Definitely not.) So what can we expect the reception to be for his upcoming Predator film? In this imperfect world, probably indifference.

Surprised not to see Star Wars in my Best Picture conversation? Oh, just wait. I was sooooo tempted. I kept it confined to the Adapted Screenplay category, since it was such a surprisingly strong story. But don't worry, there's going to be a new Star Wars movie literally every year for the rest of eternity, so I'm sure it will make it back into this category in future articles.

For my Gloriously Omitted choice, I've gotta pick on Sully, Clint Eastwood's latest. Eastwood is operating at a level where every film he releases in the fall gets serious Oscar consideration. Sully is no exception, but it turned out to be a bit of a clunker, story-wise. It's thrilling, to be sure, but it simply isn't enough to carry a complete movie (especially considering the real 'Miracle on the Hudson' events just took place a mere 8 years ago). It should have been a 1-hour TV special (even allowing for 15 minutes of commercials). An attempt at a narrative is framed around the investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board - manufactured drama for the sake of the movie. The problem is that there is no real opposition - the investigation into the pilot's decision-making is illogical and unrealistic, and we know how it's going to play out - so the film forces some ordinarily talented actors to ham it up as 'villains'. (By comparison, the movie Flight used a similar construct, but was much more effective. This is partly because it was completely fiction - we didn't know how things would turn out - and partly because the protagonist was hiding something critical from investigators - creating dramatic tension and conflict… things missing from Sully that are, you know, essential to a movie). On the plus side, I will give Eastwood a lot of credit for his staging the water landing itself - that is the part of the movie worth watching. The splashdown is an absolute dynamo. The sequence is completely riveting, and emotional in a way I was not expecting. We know exactly how the events will turn out, but by putting us right in the action - giving us the perspectives of the people involved and on the periphery - the stakes become huge. That's a really difficult thing to pull off. (Eastwood also borrowed from the Apollo 13 playbook - a common theme this year. Maybe that's why he cast Tom Hanks?) Unfortunately, I only have one takeaway from the film: Landing an airplane on the water doesn't look that hard.

BEST ACTOR:

SHOULD WIN: Denzel Washington (Fences) WILL WIN: Denzel Washington (Fences) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Tom Hanks (Sully) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Ryan Gosling (The Nice Guys)

This category promises to be the most dramatic of the evening. It could come down to a coin flip between Denzel Washington (for Fences) and Casey Affleck (for Manchester By The Sea). They've pretty much split the run-up awards, with Washington claiming the most important - the Screen Actors Guild award - and Affleck making off with secondary prizes like the Golden Globe, Critics' Choice and BAFTA. As a performer and as a person, Affleck is polarizing, while Washington is dependable. Comparatively, fewer people absolutely love Washington's performance; but also, fewer people loathe it. Smaller camps of passionate fans (think: a few 1st place votes) tend to beat out the larger warm-ish ones (think: a bunch of 2nd place votes) during the nomination process due to Academy rules, but it tips the other way when it comes to the actual winners. (That's how Viggo Mortensen snuck into this race with Captain Fantastic, but he has no shot at winning.)

So how much of the vote will they get? With Affleck, one challenge will be to decide how much of his performance is "acting", and how much is coincidence that he plays a character with the same mush-mouthed, dopey, mopey aloofness that he has. Personally, I don't think it's the best performance of the year, but I'll concede it's a good one - it may not be riveting, but it feels authentic and earned. The other (and possibly bigger) challenge is if voters decide to judge Affleck the man. In the film, his character says that he's "just the backup"; funny, that's exactly how the world feels about Ben Affleck's little brother in real life. More importantly to his voting peers, there are the harassment allegations from his train wreck of a project with Joaquin Phoenix, I'm Still Here. (By the way, how did Phoenix manage to emerge from that catastrophe with his reputation unscathed?) So how did I reconcile seeing (and supporting) Affleck's film in light of the accusations against him? Well, I watched it… but I didn't pay for it.

With Washington, there really are no challenges. He is, predictably, fantastic. But that's the catch: "predictably". With his reputation and resume, nobody is surprised (like they are with Affleck) that he hits a home run. And more than that, he's ALREADY been great in this role - on Broadway, where he won a Tony a few years ago. Voters will consider if there's a need to reward him for more of the same. Putting the voting into larger context, a win for Washington would put him in the exclusive 3-Oscars Club - becoming the 7th actor, joining recent inductees Meryl Streep and Daniel-Day Lewis. Many voters will agree that it would be a fitting honor for one of the finest actors of our time. On top of that, Washington also directed and produced Fences. The Academy loves a multi-hyphenate, and members that think he deserved a nomination for Best Director won't hesitate to vote for him here.

So for my prediction of who Will Win, I think the SAG win tips the scales slightly in Washington's favor. It shows he has the support of actors - it's the biggest branch of the Academy, and the one that will probably judge Affleck's accusations most harshly. And for my Should Win, I'm also going with Washington, because I can't bear to imagine a world where Affleck has an Oscar and Gary Oldman doesn't. (And not for nothing, but have you seen Affleck recently? He actually LOOKS like Joaquin Phoenix in I'm Still Here. Maybe… a sequel? One can dream.)

Ryan Gosling deserves to be nominated in this category… but for The Nice Guys, not La La Land. (If you're only going to see one of those movies, do yourself a favor and skip La La Land. If you're going to see both of those movies… watch The Nice Guys twice.) You would think that in a musical, the male lead should be able to, you know, sing. The song 'City Of Stars' may well win Best Song, but criminy, couldn't they get Marni Nixon to dub his vocals? "I thought he sounded pretty good," sniffed Russell Crowe, still believing his agent's high praise of his singing in Les Miserables. (Come to think of it, Crowe and Gosling really should have had a duet in The Nice Guys.) And while we're being honest, I think the best music in La La Land is the cheesy 80s music that's meant to represent the antithesis of the goodness and purity of jazz. After sitting through some snoozy musical numbers, I perked up when Emma Stone's character jokingly requested that Gosling's band play 'I Ran (So Far Away)' by Flock Of Seagulls: "Aw, hell yeah! Here's where the movie gets good!"

Andrew Garfield is an intriguing inclusion in this category, scoring his first nomination for Hacksaw Ridge. After emerging about 10 years ago, I figured he'd be an award-season candidate, but he's taken a more circuitous route than I expected. I thought he'd be a bit more independent-minded, eschewing quantity for quality and aiming for smaller and smarter films… but hey, I suppose money is nice, too. With Hacksaw Ridge (and the less-admired but no less prestigious Silence from Martin Scorsese) he at least seems to be half-way headed in that direction, following a natural trajectory from other winning films like The Social Network and 99 Homes. Just please, no more franchises. (And if you want to see a film that foretold Garfield's Oscar-caliber abilities, skip the Spider-Man movies and watch Boy A - in short, he's remarkable.)

For my Omitted choice… Playing the titular role in Sully, Tom Hanks is in a familiar bind: He's excellent, but not excellent by Tom Hanks' standards. To his credit, he plays Captain Sullenberger (he of the heroic airplane landing on the Hudson River) in a fairly realistic, understated way. Unfortunately, the performance underwhelms, and doesn't seem terribly different from Hanks himself. The film tries to play up some of his inner turmoil - grappling with fame and family troubles - but ultimately he's a character that doesn't say much, has almost no dynamism or magnetism, and reacts to his own heroism with a shrug. Scenery, un-chewed. (By the way, the film was much more enjoyable when I imagined Sully played by Will Ferrell as Ron Burgundy. I'm getting a Kickstarter campaign to make it happen. Who's in?)

BEST ACTRESS:

SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman (Jackie) WILL WIN: Emma Stone (La La Land) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Marion Cotillard (Allied) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Amy Adams (Arrival)

If only the Best Actress race was as unpredictable as the Actor race. While it's not a lock, Emma Stone appears to be pulling away. If there was a still a chance for Natalie Portman or Isabelle Huppert to surpass Stone, Stone's victory at the SAG Awards pretty much ended it. It doesn't hurt that Stone's personality is custom-made for the Oscar press circuit. Much like Jennifer Lawrence, she comes off as talented, confident, intelligent, and beautiful, but also disarming, funny, self-deprecating, and most importantly, cool - to both women and men. In short, she's easy to root for. (Lip Sync Battle, anyone?) Hollywood voters lap up her role as an earnest actress struggling to make it while remaining true to herself. Female voters can relate to Stone's character much more than they can to Jackie Kennedy. And male voters can imagine her as the fun, unpretentious girlfriend or the easy-going, sarcastic friend. (Portman is insanely talented, but nobody would ever believe her being amused by Jonah Hill's dick jokes.)

Not to be dismissive of Stone's performance in La La Land (don't worry, I'm plenty dismissive of the film itself), but her triumph here will be in part due to fortuitous circumstances. She can thank her lucky City Of Stars that Amy Adams (Arrival) or Annette Bening (20th Century Women) aren't nominated - either one of them would have been a clear sentimental favorite. With 5 previous nominations for Adams and 4 for Bening (and probably a bunch of 2nd-place finishes), voters would be anxious to reward either of them.

Stone's slate of competitors bode well for her, too. Her presumptive biggest threat, Portman (for Jackie), already won an Oscar while pregnant , like she is now. Doesn't it seem like accepting an Oscar in a maternity gown is probably a once-in-a-lifetime thing? Huppert (the Meryl Streep of the French Cesar awards) scored her first Oscar nomination this year for Elle, and like Charlotte Rampling last year, it feels like the nomination was a lifetime achievement nod of sorts for decades of admired work in foreign films. (I give Huppert extra credit for starring in the underappreciated I <HEART> Huckabees.) Ruth Negga, starring in Loving, is a relative unknown (outside of the big Preacher fans out there), and her nomination in itself was a bit of a surprise.

And then there's Meryl herself. Does anybody care less about Meryl Streep winning than Meryl Streep? In her 20th (!) trip to the Oscars, she's probably bored, especially because she knows she's going to lose. (I mean, despite being so celebrated, she actually LOSES at an astonishing rate: 84% of the time! And she's by far the best thing in Florence Foster Jenkins; without her performance elevating the film, it would be a trifle.) After 3 victories, she doesn't care about winning, either. Or does she? While she holds the unbreakable record for most acting nominations, she's 1 behind Katharine Hepburn for acting wins. And I'm sure Hepburn would be quick to point out that she won all of her Oscars in the Lead category, while Streep slummed it in the Supporting category for one of hers (kidding… Hepburn didn't even care enough to attend the ceremonies to accept any of her statuettes). In a quest for a legacy that only Tom Brady would understand (damn him), Streep needs 5 Oscars (2 more) to achieve the undisputed title of Greatest of All Time. Think she doesn't want the Oscar this year? Then you don't know Meryl. I'm just hoping she follows Florence Foster Jenkins with Florence Griffith Joyner. Streep in a tale of triumph, controversy, and mortality, as the 1988 Olympic sprinter, 100m/200m world record holder, and one-legged-track-suit fashion icon? Now THAT would get her one of those elusive Oscars.

My vote? It would probably go to Portman, with less enthusiasm than I had for her Black Swan performance. Frankly, a good portion of the time it looks like she's doing Jackie Kennedy as a high-society spoof of Black Swan: paranoid, isolated, terrified, duplicitous, unreliable. Other times it comes off as more of a boozy, breathy Marilyn Monroe (another one of JFK's lady friends). But for the sake of posterity, the real question is, after dozens (hundreds?) of Jackie portrayals, does she bring anything new or novel to the character? I mean, how can she possibly plumb new depths unexplored by Minka Kelly, Sarah Michelle Gellar, and Katie Holmes? My biggest disappointment with the film is that Big Edie and Little Edie (the Beales of Grey Gardens) don't show up, along with their live-in raccoons. That's the movie I want to see. (Totally random side-note worth mentioning: In German, Jackie is titled "Die First Lady". I'm not kidding.)

My Gloriously Omitted choice is, of course, Marion Cotillard, for her role as The Villainess in The Curious Marriage Of Bradley Pitt. Team Angelina!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Aaron Eckhart's mustache (Sully) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Chris Pine and Ben Foster (Hell Or High Water), Tom Bennett (Love & Friendship)

When most of America watches the Oscars on TV, this will be the "Guy From" category, where nobody actually knows the names of the nominees. The bad guy from Man Of Steel. The military guy from The Hunger Games. The kid from Slumdog Millionaire. The kid from… I don't know who that kid is. And the guy from all the Jeff Bridges movies.

One thing's for sure, one of the guys from this category won't be the "Guy From" much longer. In case you haven't been paying attention, Mahershala Ali is going to be a gigantic movie star. After he wins the Oscar for Moonlight, he's going to be at the top of the list for any franchise looking for an anchor, regardless of the tone or genre. In 2016 alone, he managed to star in 4 feature films (2 of which were nominated for Best Picture: Moonlight and Hidden Figures) and 2 hit shows (House Of Cards and Luke Cage). He's not a shoo-in to win the Oscar, but he's clearly the best bet, and in my not-so-humble opinion, the most deserving. The biggest knock against him is that his screen time is relatively limited in Moonlight. After he disappears at the end of Act I, I think everybody wants the story to follow him - his character Juan deserves his own film. His portion of the film builds to such a compelling moment - the only moment of true dramatic conflict between him and the main boy, Chiron - that it's shame that it ends. It's meant to be a turning point for little Chiron, but it appears to be just as big a turning point for Juan, someone who supposedly "knows who he is" (the key theme in the film). The child deftly turns the tables on Juan, and challenges him to define who is really is - and in that moment we see Juan realize that he really doesn't know at all. And then, unfortunately, he's gone. While it's ultimately a minor role, I think Academy members will be impressed by his character's grace and contradictory nature. It certainly doesn't hurt that Ali also does charismatic work in crowd-pleaser Hidden Figures, and impressed voters at the SAG awards with his inspiring, humble speech and impeccable pearl-white tux.

The next most popular choice will be Jeff Bridges, for Hell Or High Water. If he hadn't won recently (for Crazy Heart), he'd probably be the front-runner. He has the benefit of being essentially the second main character in the film - one with his own story, his own decisions, his own spotlight. The portrayal itself is just good ol' boy fun - Bridges looks like he's having a blast, with a guttural, fricasseed voice and a Texas swagger that invokes the late Richard Farnsworth and his own Rooster Cogburn. Though I have to say, as Bridges ages, it seems he's getting more and more like that in real life. I think he liked this character so much, that he's decided to stay in it.

Speaking of Hell Or High Water, I'd like to mention both Chris Pine and Ben Foster for my Snubbed spot, for delivering surprisingly strong performances as ill-prepared bank-robbing brothers. (Particularly Pine, whose surname is an apt description of his typical on-screen personality.) Both Pine and Foster are generally unlikeable actors, but they both summon something I've never seen before, and create an impressively magnetic duo together. It's possible I actually cared about their characters (but still wanted to see Jeff Bridges shoot them). Most critics are calling Pine's performance the best of his career - which isn't saying much - and I agree.

Is there a chance for Dev Patel or Michael Shannon to sneak in here? They're both possibilities, but probably not. For his lauded role in Lion, Patel won the BAFTA, which bolsters his chances… but then again, he's a Brit, so that doesn't count. Shannon snuck into this category by somehow supplanting his Nocturnal Animals co-star Aaron Taylor-Johnson, who managed to win the Golden Globe but then got passed over for the Oscars. (Christmas cards should be awkward this year.) Shannon is the only actor to make Ali look lazy in 2016, with a whopping 10 feature films, plus a starring role on Broadway. I'd be happy to see him win; he's a Chicago theater actor whose unique look and style have enabled him to methodically carve out a niche career, score kudos (including 2 Oscar nominations) for pretty much every one of his movies that's not about Superman, and somehow stay relatively anonymous and tabloid-free despite having about a zillion screen credits. His agent must hate him, because every project that seems to attract him (or he attracts) is low-budget and, for lack of a better word, weird. A small sampling: Elvis & Nixon; Midnight Special; Take Shelter; My Son, My Son, What Have Ye Done; Let's Go To Prison; The Broken Tower; Bug; and of course, Kangaroo Jack. (And yes, that's him at the diner as a teenager in Groundhog Day.)

I'm a little puzzled by the nomination for Lucas Hedges in Manchester By The Sea. (But given how puzzled I am by the movie itself, I guess that shouldn't be a surprise.) I just don't know what's so impressive about his performance. To me, he just seems like a smart-assed, foul-mouthed, horny 16-year old; in other words, every 16-year old. For all we know, that's what he's like in real life - so is it great acting? For a character whose father has just died and whose mother abandoned him years earlier, his performance just doesn't feel that authentic to me. There are interesting flashes of denial, but it seems like the film mostly glazes over that element, instead of using it to elevate the character. More than anything, I'm struck by how much he seems like a teenage version of Matt Damon - voice, accent, posture, performance. It's no accident that Damon is a producer on the film - he probably held New England-wide auditions to find his mini-me, to star alongside Ben Affleck's mini-me. In terms of advice, I'm guessing Damon just handed Hedges a VHS tape of Good Will Hunting and said, "Hey Lil' Matt, watch this movie, because I think I'm amazing." For my money, I would have preferred to see any of a number of actors take Hedges' place in this category: Pine or Foster (see above), Tom Bennett (a hilarious Victorian moron in Love & Friendship), Hugh Grant (playing his weaknesses as strengths in Florence Foster Jenkins), or even Robert Downey Jr. (in a tiny, magnificent cameo as the corpse of a porno director in The Nice Guys).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis (Fences) WILL WIN: Viola Davis (Fences) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Anna Gunn (Sully) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Kathryn Hahn (Bad Moms)

This is the biggest lock of the night: Viola Davis will win for Fences. She's winning everything. Literally everything. She's even winning awards that have nothing to do with this movie. I'm pretty sure she just beat out Beyonce for a Grammy. If she would have announced her candidacy for President the day before the election, she would have won that, too. And it's overdue: I'm in the camp that thinks she should have won the Oscar for The Help. She's been the prohibitive favorite here since the movie adaptation of August Wilson's play was announced; after all, she won a Tony for the same role on Broadway. And the critical consensus is that she's even better in the film than she was on stage. Even her nostrils give an award-winning performance during her crying scene. (Oh my, that's a runny nose. Which brings up a lot of practical considerations: Did director Denzel Washington call for the amount of snot in each take? Did he ask for a variety, so he had snot options in the editing room? Do they have continuity checks for snot? Did the script specify the viscosity and texture of snot? Do close-ups require 'hero' snot? Can Davis snot on cue? Is there fake snot for the days she can't get the nose-works going? Does that fall under the Makeup department, or is a there a specialized Snot Wrangler? Is there a separate casting call for snot, and if so, which agents specialize in it? So many questions.) If Davis is emotional during her acceptance speech, let's hope they hand her a kleenex - or five - along with the Oscar.

Nicole Kidman has said she felt a strong bond with her character in Lion, as they're both adoptive mothers. Many credit that real-life connection and perspective with propelling Kidman to her 4th Oscar nomination. In order to secure a nomination in her next film, she's planning to play a woman who marries a celebrity in order to conceal his closeted sexuality. "I could play that role in my sleep," she said. "Come to think of it, I've played that role twice." Does she have a chance to win this year? She already has an Oscar. Next.

Octavia Spencer gives a strong performance in Hidden Figures, but it seems that she's something of a surrogate for the entire SAG-winning cast, a way to recognize all of them. (They could have easily nominated Janelle Monae, who infused Figures, as well as Moonlight, with a welcome burst of energy. Pretty impressive for a singer in her first acting roles ever.) While Spencer is steady throughout, her portrayal is fairly businesslike; she doesn't have many showy scenes that would stand out to Oscar voters. So does she have a chance to win this year? She ALSO already has an Oscar. (And even she is rooting for Viola Davis.) Next.

Perhaps the biggest revelation of all this year's nominees is Naomie Harris, for her role as a struggling drug-addict mother in Moonlight. She's been recognizable in a variety of roles over the past decade and a half, but she hasn't shown anything like what she does with this role. But does she… I think you know where this is going. Next.

That brings us to Michelle Williams, for her role in Manchester By The Sea. She's quietly racked up 4 career Oscar nominations without a win - she's venturing into Amy Adams territory. She's been consistently strong since the day she paddled out of Dawson's Creek, so a lot of voters WANT to pencil her in. But with such a tiny role in this film, there's simply no compelling reason to do so this year. Frankly, I'm not even so sure she deserves one of these slots. She only pops up in a handful of scenes, mostly to fill in emotional backstory for Casey Affleck and to make us feel terrible about life in general. (And gahwd, that accent.) So… no.

BEST DIRECTOR:

SHOULD WIN: Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle (La La Land) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Stephen Frears (Florence Foster Jenkins) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: David Mackenzie (Hell Or High Water)

This category, a collection of refreshing, talented directors with unique voices, probably represents the future of cinema. (And that's including Mel Gibson - there will always be at least one racist old coot in the establishment. I guess if the Academy forgave Roman Polanski, they'll forgive anybody.) There's very little doubt here that Damien Chazelle will prevail for La La Land. I'm more okay with the film scoring the Director prize than Picture, due to the daunting technical nature of the film, but I would still choose someone else. I was frankly more impressed with Chazelle's previous (and more poignantly intimate) film, Whiplash. After all the hullabaloo surrounding La La Land, I kept waiting for it to transform into a unique, original take on the musical romance genre… but it never does. I don't think the opening freeway musical number is as much of a dazzler as everyone else seems to. And the dancing… Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone don't look like naturals, they look like contestants on Dancing With The Stars, going through the paces after a couple weeks of rehearsals. To Chazelle's credit, there are a lot of nice touches in the film, and the final sequence is outright fantastic (more on that in the Original Screenplay category). I just expected more to justify the hype… and the slew of Oscars it will win.

I'm much more impressed with Denis Villeneuve's vision in Arrival. Besides crafting a film that's visually stunning, narratively captivating, and intellectually stimulating, he managed to make a deeply personal film about what's effectively a silly sci-fi alien invasion. (Though the title is inauspicious: Dithering voters might confuse it with that other alien invasion movie called The Arrival, the 1996 masterpiece starring critical darling and Hollywood treasure Charlie Sheen as a - wait for it - brilliant astronomer with a goatee.) This year's hipster nomination, Villeneuve may appear to be a newcomer, but he's been a darling on the French-Canadian art-house scene (Is that a thing?) for two decades. (Credit where credit's due: I predicted he would be the next big thing back in 2000 at the Toronto Film Festival; it just took 16 years, that's all. Next up for him? The SLIGHTY high-profile Blade Runner sequel.) If you want to impress your film-snob friends, check out his French-language film Maelstrom, a twisty, dark thriller / love story with bits of absurdist humor thrown in for good measure. (Oh, and it's narrated by a fish. In a butcher shop. Being chopped up into pieces. I’m telling you, the French-Canadian art-house scene.)

It's a real longshot, but a win here for Barry Jenkins (director of Moonlight) would be a pleasant surprise. Jenkins took a tiny, potentially difficult, urban art film and turned it into a true sensation. The feat is even more astounding considering it's only his second feature, his main actors are mostly inexperienced, and he tells a story about the internal conflicts of an introvert who barely speaks. To top it all off, he chooses to split the story into 3 pieces, spread out over 15 years. As narratives go, it's about as tough as it gets. Moonlight is not going to be everybody's favorite film, but it's a marvel, and Jenkins is someone we'll be hearing plenty more about.

It's actually been 10 years since Mel Gibon's drunken, expletive-ridden, anti-Semitic rant during his DUI arrest. Just long enough for Mel Gibson jokes to be funny again - and since Jimmy Kimmel is hosting the Oscars, I think you can expect one or two (or twenty). How to explain Gibson's nomination for Best Director for Hacksaw Ridge? I think an old episode of South Park featuring a loony Gibson put it best: "Say what you want about Mel Gibson, but the sonuvabitch knows story structure." Want to know a totally, completely true fact? Gibson fought hard for a couple of titles to his World War II drama, before the studio forced him to change it to Hacksaw Ridge: "Guess Who's Responsible For WWII (And All The Wars In The World)" and "Sugar Tits".

While I respect Kenneth Lonergan as a filmmaker, I haven't been overly impressed with any of his films. I mean, I WANT to like his movies. They're just… tough to digest. I know that, above all, he strives for realism. Referring to typical Hollywood movies, he recently said in an interview, "I see them sugarcoat and pass over experiences everybody in the world has had. It annoys me, because it seems like a lie." He certainly doesn't sugarcoat anything in Manchester By The Sea, where Lonergan's form of realism is exceptionally harsh. And maybe that's my problem - when I watch a movie, realism isn't always exactly what I want to see, especially when it puts me in a depressed mood for a couple days. Aside from the tone and story, I actually have problems with the awkward editing and incongruous musical choices. They make the film seem unpolished, beyond the point of realism. It feels, I don't know, almost lazy. I'm sure it's all intentional, but I just don't understand why. When it comes to Lonergan, I guess there's a lot I don't understand.

David Mackenzie got passed over for an Oscar nomination for Hell Or High Water, but he may still win a Nobel Prize… for coaxing an actual lifelike performance out of Chris Pine. I was hoping Mackenzie would sneak into this race. The Scottish director filmed in New Mexico with a West Coast actor and somehow managed make a film that feels authentically like West Texas - without casting Tommy Lee Jones. (I damn near had to turn on the subtitles to understand those accents.) His wide lens captures something both intoxicating and toxic about the region. How do you make geography look so beautiful and so crappy at the same time? There are plenty of postcard-worth landscapes in Odessa, but Mackenzie will be damned if he'll use those. But instead, here's an extra helping of rural decay! The West Texas office of tourism has to absolutely hate it every time a new movie is set in the area. Based on what we see in movies, we assume it's depressive, repressive, oppressive, backwards, racist, redneck, violent, callous, dead-end, dying, undereducated, sweltering, and corrupt. Maybe that's why they filmed Hell Or High Water in New Mexico: they weren't allowed in Texas. "If you're not going to film La La Land 2 here, then git the hell out!"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

SHOULD WIN: Taylor Sheridan (Hell Or High Water) WILL WIN: Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By The Sea) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: A million people (Zootopia) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Anthony Bagarozzi, Shane Black (The Nice Guys)

It's not uncommon for one of the screenplay awards to serve as a runner-up for the Best Picture race, particularly when there's a chance to reward a writer-director. This year, probably both screenplay categories will serve this purpose, which is unfortunate. While La La Land certainly could sweep every category and claim this prize, it's more likely that Manchester By The Sea will take it. Personally, I'd rather see it go to a more enthralling piece of writing, Hell Or High Water.

As movie writers go, Kenneth Lonergan is about as unassailable as they come. No stranger to accolades, Manchester By The Sea is his 3rd screenplay nomination (following You Can Count On Me and Gangs Of New York), and he's got a pile of other film and playwrighting awards (including a Pulitzer nomination). I would be an idiot to criticize his writing, but I’m going to do it anyway. (I think I've proven that I’m an idiot in the past, so I might as well embrace it.) Simply put, I don't think Manchester has a strong story. I won't go so far as to claim that the emperor has no clothes, but if you spent 20 seconds on the Internet, you'll find tons of people who feel that way about Mr. Lonergan. I suppose I would categorize this script as a tragedy (in the ancient dramatic sense), but there isn't really anywhere for the main character to fall from. It strikes me as more of a portrait (admittedly, a rich, vivid one); it seems to take more cues from the stage world than screen. I don't want to say too much to spoil anything (but just in case you're going to see this movie, skip this paragraph to avoid spoilers). Probably my biggest complaint (other than the fact that it's a serious downer) is that the story is set up as a classic redemption story, and then… there's no redemption. Instead, the main character resigns himself to failure. (And please, I'm not saying "I wish it had a Hollywood ending.") There's a clear crossroads in the movie where, after the 'Lost Point' (the main character's lowest point in the story, about 3/4 of the way through), the character would choose a redemptive path (through an epiphany, an active decision, drastic measures, etc.). But he simply doesn't. And then the rest of the story just peters out from there. The frustrating thing is that the character recognizes the opportunity for redemption (taking responsibility for his deceased brother's teenage son), but he refuses it. Lonergan clearly sets this situation up, tempts us to follow him, gives us a head-fake, and runs off in the other direction. (In his defense, there is an intriguing - and potentially heartening - hint of self-sacrifice on the part of the main character, but I think it's too faint to truly pay off.) This is a long way of saying that after a 2-hour journey of unrelenting grief, I wanted more of a reason for the journey to be worthwhile.

As I mentioned, there's a good chance that La La Land will win Best Original Screenplay instead of Manchester, but brother, I hope it doesn't. I'm not even sure why it's nominated here in the first place. The genre and music notwithstanding, there isn't much motor in the story. I find no compelling reason to be invested in the romance between the drippy, selfish faux-idealists. There are no real obstacles. There is no conflict other than superficial conflict for its own sake - internally fabricated by the characters to get in their own way. It's like they're trying to make their lives harder for no particular reason. How do these wistful whiners get past practical inconveniences, like filing their income taxes? (I'm sure their 1040s are met with an abundance of longing sighs.) But believe it or not, I have to say, I think the ending is superb. It almost redeems the movie… almost. (It's the one part that I like, and not surprisingly, the one part that my wife hates.) I can't say much without ruining the movie (and trust me, I REALLY do want to ruin the movie for you), but it effectively turns the entirety of the movie into a fairly poignant metaphor. It gives weight to many of the themes that were, up to that point, trite, and adds legitimacy to some of the lazy aspects of the screenplay. It attempts to answer the question (with some success, I admit) of what it means to dream - with all the perks and perils that come along with it - and whether a dream can ever truly become a reality. I'm certain there are different interpretations of the ending; I prefer a cynical one. What if you achieve your dream - is that even a good thing? I guess my primary lament about the script is: If writer-director Damien Chazelle had such a cool trick up his sleeve for the finale, why did he drown the rest of the movie with such lifeless material?

I'm rooting for Hell Or High Water, written by Taylor Sheridan. Besides what I previously mentioned, probably its biggest strength is that it wisely does not dwell on backstory. It doesn't spend time in the beginning "setting up" who the bank-robbing main characters are, or shoehorn in flashbacks to fill in the gaps (ahem, Manchester By The Sea). It jumps right into the story in the opening scene and never looks back, giving us just enough of a sense of the characters' backgrounds and motivations to keep us on track - without EXPLAINING it all to us. (The price of that is a few clunky expositional lines of dialogue, but in general it's handled pretty well.) Credit the director and editor on that front as well: knowing that anything that is NOT part of the story does NOT belong in the movie. The message of the script, a clear allegory, is an admirable - if damning - one. Besides condemning the evils of greed and "the bank", it hammers home a theme about the sins of fathers (biological and generational) and redemption of (or rejection by) sons. Unfortunately it teeters into preachy, heavy-handed territory occasionally. (There's an awkward, unintentionally funny scene where Jeff Bridges' lawman stops his truck to allow a ranch hand to corral his cattle across the road. As he's struggling to herd the cattle away from a blazing prairie fire - clearly a life and death situation - the rancher pauses to casually deliver an absurdly jarring, unprovoked, preachy, expository speech. Given the circumstances, I don't think I'd be up for much conversation with a random driver, other than, "Watch out for my cows, a--hole!") Unlike many of the nominees this year, the film delivers with a resonant, satisfying ending. The only detriment is that the final scene (which had the potential to be understated, sly, and truly great) is a little on-the-nose. I have a feeling the studio gave a note… that should have been ignored.

It seems that whenever Mike Mills writes a script about his family, it gets nominated for Oscars. A few years ago, he wrote Beginners about his father, and Christopher Plummer won Best Supporting Actor. Now 20th Century Women, written about his mother, is nominated for Best Original Screenplay. I can't wait for the script about his goldfish.

Ah, The Lobster. This is the most intriguing and refreshing nominee in either screenplay category. It's as strange as you would expect from a filmmaker named Yorgos Lanthimos. After seeing it, the only thing I know about it for sure is that the story can't be taken at face value. It's clearly a satire, with subtext serving as the point of the film. (Some would argue that subtext ALWAYS serves as the point of any film, and that a film should never be taken at face value.) At its most obvious, it's a send-up of the absurdity of the "rules" and social norms around being a romantic couple and being single. However, I'd argue that it better serves as an allegory for pretty much any arbitrary dichotomy, with 2 diametrically opposed sides or points of view. It applies in particular to any situation where the line between the 2 sides is essentially fabricated, and people are forced to choose a side. It applies well to important things like war, religion, and political parties, as well as more trivial concepts like cola wars, sports fans, and late-night talk show rivalries. The film poses the questions that should be obvious: Why can't there be a 3rd point of view? Or even infinite points of view? Why are there any sides period? Why do we have to choose? I wish all this meant that it was a great movie. The premise and the absurdity, especially in the first half of the film, are a strong draw (dialogue like: "Do you have any pets?" "Yes: my brother."), but the harshness is a little too sobering. The story is whimsical, but in a rigid way: there are rules in the world of The Lobster, and they are relentlessly, brutally severe. Going into it, I thought it might be quirky-fun (in the vein of Michel Gondry, Charlie Kaufman, or Wes Anderson), but it's quirky-disturbing. There's a sensibility to The Lobster that's almost masochistic, which is belied by the comically flat and simple dialogue. (All the characters deliver their lines like Europeans with 3rd grade English skills - appropriate, considering it was written by Greek men with 3rd grade English skills.) It's more akin to A Clockwork Orange or Brazil, in terms of the skewed definitions of "normal", and the frightening prices people pay for not being "normal". But unfortunately it's not nearly as good nor as enduring as those films.

I know it's not fair to pick on a kids' movie like Zootopia, but am I the only one who thought the sloths-working-at-the-DMV gag was unfunny and unoriginal? I guess so.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

SHOULD WIN: Eric Heisserer (Arrival) WILL WIN: Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McCraney (Moonlight) GLORIOUSLY OMITTED: Todd Komarnicki (Sully) INGLORIOUSLY SNUBBED: Tony Gilroy, Chris Weitz (Rogue One: A Star Wars Story), Whit Stillman (Love & Friendship)

Ever since Moonlight was shifted from the Original to the Adapted Screenplay category, it's been the favorite, not having to compete against Manchester By The Sea and La La Land. And once it beat both of those scripts at the Writers Guild Awards, it became a virtual lock for the Oscar. Anyone that considers voting for it as Best Picture or Director will almost surely vote for it here. But truthfully, I think the screenplay is one of Moonlight's weaker elements. It's probably because I'm an advocate of a strong narrative. And while there is a narrative thread across the film's 3 segments, I think other elements orchestrated by writer/director Barry Jenkins are what make Moonlight such a triumph. So I'd probably vote for it for Director or Picture before Screenplay. But to be fair, the script has many unique elements rarely seen in cinema, and people are clearly responding to it. Whether it was the story, theme, production, direction, or acting, I found the film to be entrancing in a way I didn't expect.

On the other hand, I love the script for Arrival (by Eric Heisserer), which has a very strong narrative. In fact, it toys with narrative by dismantling what we've come to expect from flashbacks. Flashbacks are often derided as a screenwriter's crutch, so Heisserer preys on that notion, then manipulates it into something new. The story even takes a novel approach to the Alien Invasion genre: What if the aliens aren't the most important thing in the story?

So, Moonlight will win, and if there's an upset, most people expect that it will come from Arrival. But not so fast. As I mentioned earlier, it's possible that a groundswell for Hidden Figures could conceivably propel it to a Best Picture victory. And if that happens, look out, because it could well carry over into this category as well. Never count out a story that people absolutely love. (That said, the film's lack of nomination for Best Director makes this scenario much less plausible.)

I expect Fences will also get its share of votes, from a small group of passionate devotees. It would be a way to honor the late August Wilson (who adapted his own Pulitzer Prize-winning play into a screenplay years ago). But since Wilson had no active involvement in this incarnation of his story (he died in 2005), it won't approach the support that Moonlight is getting.

Of course, we can't forget about Star Wars. I really would vote for Rogue One: A Star Wars Story for Best Screenplay. While the film on a whole was excellent, Screenplay is where it truly excelled. Imagine the audacity of it: It takes a few throwaway lines from the opening crawl of the first Star Wars movie, and turns them into a clever thriller that culminates in a breathless firestorm leading smack into the first scene from the original masterpiece. I expected cool action and mythology; I did not expect such an emotional story about characters that have never before even been mentioned in the series. While I would also give full credit to director Gareth Edwards and the entire production, screenwriters Tony Gilroy and Chris Weitz (leveraging a story from John Knoll and Gary Whitta) are the MVPs. By comparison, the story is unquestionably superior to The Force Awakens. (Why, you ask, is my wife such a fan of Gilroy? Because she's a bigger Star Wars geek than I am? Because he was nominated for Screenplay and Director Oscars for Michael Clayton? Because he was the mastermind behind all the Jason Bourne movies? No. Because he wrote The Cutting Edge. That guy could cure cancer, and he would still be best remembered for the words "toe pick".)

#Oscars #oscarpredictions #oscarpredictions2017 #oscarprognostication2017 #donovansoscarprognostication2017 #oscars2017 #AcademyAwards #academyaward

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doktorpeace · 8 years ago

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I think I’m close enough to the ending to make my definitive P3 and P4 comparison post. I’ll do it quite simply, I’ll list one game’s Pros and Cons and then the other’s. Each subject will get a little bit of discussion but I don’t want this to be a thesis paper so. It’s still going to be long though. Needless to say this will contain relatively heavy spoilers from both games.

P3: Pros - Stronger party members and inter-party dynamics. SEES is much more well fleshed out than The Investigation Team even despite that over half of them do not have Social Links. The characters all living in one dorm together means there’s a lot more opportunity to see them and also to see them interact with each other. P3P furthers this gap by adding social links for the boys. In P4 the party members dynamics with each other don’t change that much over the course of the game, where the cast of P3 has their relationships change around you regardless of your decisions. The game also has a lot of cutscenes showing their interactions without you, and that’s something P4 sorely misses, everything in P4 has to have Yu in the shot and it’s gets in the way of that. A stronger story. The story of P3 has much better pacing because it spends mandatory time developing your party members and there’s a consistent build of tension even within each month as a Full Moon approaches. This then works into the overarcing story of tension building higher and higher as you defeat more and more of the 12 Full Moon Shadows. Because of this it builds at a very good and reasonable pace. P3′s story also goes right for the gut in terms of emotional impact, it doesn’t pull its punches and you’re going to be sad. While this may not be positive for everyone it certainly leaves a stronger impact. More consistent difficulty scaling. The game challenges you with bosses at a regular rate throughout Tartarus to ensure you’re ready for the next story boss. That said sometimes they’re overzealous in doing this, a few times I found the Tartarus midbosses to be more difficult than the actual Full Moon Shadows. Better critical hit animations and more dynamic Persona Summoning animations. While the latter is more subjective P3′s critical hits pack more of a punch, they feel weighty, it’s good. While a couple are oddly long (Mitsuru, Junpei) it’s not bad enough to take away from it. Character portraits are more dynamic, they are in multiple poses that suit the emotion they’re conveying. While each character has a standard ‘pose’ where their expression simply changes having their ‘pose’ change as well helps a lot in keeping them feel alive and and engaged. A more consistent commitment to the game’s themes and style. The soundtrack and mood of each scene work together much better and the game generally avoids mood whiplash problems. This even extends to the game’s core colors and UI design, overall a very sleek looking game. With how severe the game’s central story themes are this is a huge plus imo. Neutral - A higher difficulty. P3 is harder than P4 without question especially early on. This can be a good or a bad thing depending on who you ask. All of the side quests are obtained from Elizabeth. From a gameplay perspective I find this superior since I actually did all of the sidequests in P3 simply because they were easy to access and commit to. Tatsumi Port Island is bigger than Inaba. In some ways this is nice since there’s more places to look around, but if you have a poor memory or sense of direction this could be a negative. A tighter schedule. The game only has something like 6 spare days on a fresh file if you want to complete every social link. That’s unforgiving to a ridiculous degree. Cons - Easier to abuse mechanics. Fusion Spells are broken, being able to directly buff your Persona’s stats is also broken especially when in the last 3-4 months there’s nothing better to do with your evenings. Having your SP fully restored when returning to Tartarus’ ground floor is super abusable especially once Fuuka learns Escape Route. The last 50-60 floors or so of Tartarus I breezed through by spamming Thunder Call and retreating back to the entrance anytime I happened to get low on SP. Makoto is not very compelling as a protagonist compared to Yu, he’s needlessly perfect and while this comes up in game as a source of jealousy for other characters it really doesn’t mesh with how Makoto is allegedly a cowardly dumbass with no game when you start. Makoto’s dialogue options tend to be very neutral or negative to his conversation partner as well, so it’s often very obvious which dialogue option is correct, which is to say whichever dialogue option isn’t those things usually. If you don’t like stories with Messianic main characters on principle you’ll also not like Makoto. Some blocks of Tartarus are a fucking eyesore dude. Block 5 in particular is horrible. Some of the social links really suck. Like, really bad. Moon and Magician in particular fucking suck dude. Also you can’t complete all the social links without cheating on 5 girls and the game in no way punishes you for it. That’s fucked up dude. Some of the shadows are fucking ridiculous. They’re immune to everything except one damage type or they’re just flat out immune to everything except Megido skills. It’s bullshit sometimes. Not often enough to be a huge hassle since running away in this game is easy, but it sucks dude. P4: Pros - Better social sim elements. More interactions require you to have a certain level of a social stat and more interactions raise your social stats as well. It’s a good change. Your social stats also progress at a more reasonable pace. It’s a very good change overall. Better social links. 4′s social links are more involved, requiring more social skill checks to take the best dialogue options while generally being longer and more deeply exploring the characters in question. It’s great how memorable and interesting each one is. They really hammered out this system a lot better and you meet a lot of people from a lot of walks of life, it’s great. Additionally party member’s social links get them more involved in combat which assists with reducing the RNG factor RPGs can have. After just a couple levels they’ll take one mortal blow for the protagonist in a fight, though this won’t affect spread moves so it doesn’t negate difficulty. Mostly it just saves you from random crits or from a Hamaon or Mudoon that decided it wanted to fuck your day. You have more to actually do with your evenings. In P3 only two social links took place at night and in P4 there’s 4 that do. You can also do several social stat raising activities, but you can’t grind out your persona’s stats. It’s good. Varied dungeon designs and more consistent internal difficulty with each one. Each dungeon has a unique theme which directly pertains to who you’re rescuing and what difficulty they’re facing and they’re all 8-12 floors long. This is a great change because it lets the developers really know the pace the player is going to generally have getting through it and it helps build some player tension for what each boss could be like. Each one also has 1-2 minibosses before the main boss, which helps the player gauge if they’re a the right strength for the next major Shadow Boss. They also made use of 2-3 set design floors for every dungeon, this allowed them to include minor puzzle elements in each one ranging from pretty good (Naoto, Adachi) to Really Annoying (Mitsuo). P4 is less difficult but a much more consistent experience. P4 has a way stronger supporting cast. There’s not characters like Jin who just kind of exist but never have any part of their character explored. Dojima, Adachi, Namatame, Nanako and others are very well fleshed out. Where of P3′s side cast Elizabeth really steals the show (not that I mind too much cause she’s such a good character) P4′s are all well developed and I like them a lot. It helps that several of them are social links I guess but still, P4′s side cast is way better than P3′s. Yu is a more fleshed out protagonist, thanks in no small part to being in future content, but even aside from that he’s a better character just in the game itself. His dialogue options are much more varied and good partially because of the higher involvement of the social stats. You can directly control your party members holy SHIT this alone is such a huge boon to gameplay. P3′s companions have good AI mostly but god is it annoying when they elect to just kill one thing they knocked down instead of knocking down all the enemies. The plot is really well set up overall. The twists all make sense but are very hard to foresee. I like the game’s story a lot it’s just mostly held back by its pacing and hands off nature in terms of developing the Investigation Team. Nothing feels like it came out of nowhere or doesn’t make sense, which is very good for a murder mystery. Neutral - The Fusion Forecast is a neat, but largely unimportant as an addition to the game. Sometimes it lets you make stupid bullshit though and that’s cool. The side quests are obtained from a variety of NPCs at varying points in the game. This helps the setting feel more alive and breathes some life into Inaba and from a worldbuilding perspective I like this better. That said I only did about a quarter of the sidequests in P4 in my second run and only like 3/4 in my first one and I think that speaks for itself. Cons - The main cast is weaker generally, but by no means bad except Yosuke. Yosuke and Teddie in particularly are very weak characters after the first third of the game is complete. There’s not much to say on it that hasn’t been said on this blog already though. Sucks that Yosuke starts off pretty good and has a pretty good social link but then just goes to shit and stays that way in the spinoffs. The story’s pacing is kinda janky. It isn’t bad by any stretch, but it is about 3/4 of the game doing the same thing then it suddenly escalating and escalating and escalating all at once near the end. It builds tension certainly but not as well. Also any given story encounter is relatively easily solved all in one day, which makes the pacing feel weaker since then you spend 2-4 in game weeks just going through the motions of doing social links and raising your social stats. Party member’s Personas advancing via social link rather than through the story is lame. It basically forced them to shove all of their actual growth off to the side. While most of them have really really good social links that advance their character meaningfully this cannot be reflected in the story at all, which is a huge negative. It also means nothing of major importance can happen to any of them that would cause their persona to develop naturally either. A couple party member’s social links really double back on the advancement they had from confronting their Shadows. While Rise and Yukiko have very good social links they ultimately just end up back on square one, just with a new lens to view the world through. It’s kinda cool but makes the cast feel more stagnant than it needs to. The Biggest Con of them All is that they chickened out of making Naoto a trans guy. Genuinely and honestly the worst fuck up the game makes is this. Cutting Yosuke’s gay romance (WHICH IS STILL IN THE GAME AND FULLY VOICED IN ENGLISH) is also lame as shit but I can deal without that. Seriously though they set Naoto up to be trans so well and genuinely look at some trans themes but even though Kanji’s shadow is about Attraction To Dudes and Yukiko’s is about lamenting her life being out of her hands because of her genealogy and Teddie’s is about emptiness and not knowing what you really are and Rise’s is about owning your own image and ALL OF THOSE are genuine and really part of them I guess the parts where Naoto’s shadow explicitly talks about wanting to surgically transition and to be a man are the exception, huh Atlus. In Persona 4 Arena+Ultimax and Persona Q they take small steps towards making Naoto still questioning and leaning towards wanting to transition than they are at the end of their (otherwise good) social link. But i’m just waiting for a like, 25 year old Naoto to show up in Persona 5 Arena or Persona 6 or whatever and to just be a guy. And also dating Kanji but that’s neither here nor there. In Closing: I like P3 better but mostly for the writing and main characters. As a gameplay experience P4 is better by a wide margin.

#Very Long Post #Persona

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joeyrob1 · 5 years ago

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Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Review

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Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Review. Hot on the heels of our Amazon Machine Learning Review, we decided to do a review and compare against Microsoft Azure’s offering of Machine Learning services on the cloud. In short, we find Microsoft Azure Machine Learning services quite amazing and liked it better than Amazon’s Machine Learning services.

Free Trial Access

Nothing beats free trial access to test drive the system the system for free. Woo hoo! Free $200 credits remaining. I am beginning to sing “…This used to be my playground. This used to be my childhood dreams…”

Production Pricing

But we have to get real and check the real production pricing which can be found at Azure Machine Learning Pricing and copied below. The pricing model is unique. Base fee is low and hourly experiment fee is also low. I guess the bulk of the cost would show up if one publishes the API for production use and there is substantial transactional load on those API calls.

Azure Marketplace vs Machine Learning Studio

First thing I had to realize was how rich the Azure Machine Learning offerings were. There are pre-packaged working AI models available in the Azure MarketPlace For Machine Learning and there is Azure Machine Learning Studio where one can configure Machine Learning models using graphical interfaces. These are very different toolsets for different use cases.

Azure Marketplace

For example Azure MarketPlace has packaged services like the following, some of which might have been built using Azure Machine Learning Studio and many many more.

Customer Churn Prediction

Customer Churn Prediction is a churn analytics service built with Azure Machine Learning. It’s designed to predict the likelyhood of a customer (player, subscriber, user, etc.) ending his or her relationship with a company or service.

Text Analytics

Text Analytics API is a suite of text analytics services built with Azure Machine Learning. Just bring your unstructured text (English only), and use this API to perform sentiment analysis and key phrase extraction.

Recommendations

Recommendations API by Azure Machine Learning helps your customer discover items in your catalog. Customer activity on your website is used to recommend items and to improve conversion in your digital or physical store.

Frequently Bought Together

Frequently Bought Together is a market basket analysis API built with Azure Machine Learning. It helps your customers discover items in your catalog that are frequently purchased together. Use your purchase history to add recommendations to your website.

Binary Classifier API

Binary Classifier API is an example built with Microsoft Azure Machine Learning that fits a logistic regression model to user inputted data and outputs the predicted value for each of the observations in the data. Suppose you have a dataset and would like to predict a binary dependent variable based on the independent variables. ‘Logistic Regression’ is a popular statistical technique used for such predictions.

You can subscribe to a service in the marketplace and try to use it. For example, here we try the text analysis service.

It was very simple to set up. However, I was wondering why the supported languages didn’t include usual internet languages like Python and Ruby.

Experiment with Text Analytics

We went ahead and tried exploring the text analytics API in the browser without code.

We took some text from a Marketwatch article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-pullback-may-be-investors-last-chance-2015-04-13

Text 1: As much as the market rallied this past week, we still have not seen dissipation of the bearishness in the financial media. Most seem way too focused on corporate earnings, and believe that will be the next shoe to drop, and cause the market to drop.

Key phrases identified were: “bearishness”,”financial media”,”market”,”past week”,”corporate earnings”,”dissipation”,”shoe”

Sentiment score was: 0.287 (I believe where 0 is very negative sentiment is 1 is very positive sentiment)

Text 2: The upcoming week should provide us with the answer to the question I posed in the title of this update. Keep in mind we have been looking at the last month as a consolidation setting us up for a strong rally toward 2200 in the S&P 500 and 132-136 in the IWM. So, if next week does not provide us with weakness in the equity market, and we take out the all-time highs, we are clearly heading much higher, and toward our long-time targets much sooner than later. But should the market be so kind as to provide us with one more pullback or even one more low toward 2021ES, it will likely be your last opportunity to enter for this next rally to 2182ES/2189SPX and 132-136 in the IWM.

Key phrases identified were: “strong rally”,”weakness”,”long-time targets”,”title”,”equity market”,”us”,”question”,”time highs”,”consolidation”,”answer”,”kind”,”upcoming week”,”SPX”,”update”,”pullback”,”month”,”opportunity”,”mind”,”IWM”

Sentiment score was: 0.99 (I wonder why the score was so high?)

Text 3: Oh no. The world is coming to a sad end.

Sentiment score was: 0.00 (Ok, this makes sense)

Text 4: Oh yes. The world is a beautiful place.

Sentiment score was: 0.88 (This makes sense too)

Text 5: Oh no. The world is a beautiful place.

Sentiment score was: 0.55 (Now, I am just fooling around and confusing everyone)

Overall, the Text Analytics service performed as I expected and is slightly better than other Text Analytics engines I have tried.

Azure Machine Learning Studio

Now, Azure Machine Learning Studio is what makes the whole experience rock. The graphical user interface is powerful and yet amazingly simple and intuitive to use. First you create a workspace like following

You can find plenty of documentations at:

http://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/documentation/services/machine-learning/

http://blogs.technet.com/b/machinelearning/

http://blogs.technet.com/b/machinelearning/archive/2015/04/09/exciting-new-templates-in-azure-ml.aspx

What is amazing is the array of samples and templates you can use for experiments eg binary classification, regression, credit risk anomaly detection, customer relationship prediction, flight delay prediction, prediction of student performance, twitter sentiment analysis, recognition of hand-writing, neural networks, online fraud detection, movie and production recommendations, time series forecasting etc.

You can see the full listing at the Machine Learning Gallery http://gallery.azureml.net/

Compared to the narrow set of possibilities at Amazon, this is where Azure really shines. Now I am wondering why I discovered Azure Machine Learning so late. Was it because I overlooked it in favour of open-source source libraries or typically open-source friendly vendors like Amazon and neglected to see how powerful Microsoft platforms can be?

Amazing UI in Azure Machine Learning Studio

The graphical UI in the Machine Learning Studio is wonderful to say the least. Feels like a sophisticated thick client but all in my Chrome Browser with animation, graphical flow charts to help you understand a complicated process.

I decided not to go easy on Azure and tried stress testing by running multiple concurrent model evaluations.

It does take quite a while to run some of the models. Filter Based Feature Selection was stuck for over 30 minutes for the Binary Classification of Twitter sentiment. The other experiments each only took about 5-10 minutes to complete which was acceptable.

The simple ability to share your results (eg on Twitter) is a nice friendly aspect great for their marketing too.

Conclusion

We have tried many machine learning platforms before from the powerful open-source ones like Python Sklearn, Mahout to open-source commercial ones like 0xData, Prediction.IO to large vendor on the cloud ones like Amazon Machine Learning and now Microsoft Azure.

In terms of being able to write code in however way you like and integrate easily into your code, Python Sklearn is probably still the most flexible but comes with a medium learning curve and only for developers. But if you want a Machine Learning service on the cloud for beginners to experts to even business users, with a powerful and intuitive user interface at a decent cost, I think Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Studio and Marketplace clearly outshines all other Machine Learning solutions on the cloud.

If you like our articles, please follow and like our Facebook page where we regularly share interesting posts.

RobustTechHouse is a leading tech company focusing on mobile app development in Singapore. If you are interested to engage RobustTechHouse on your projects, you can contact us here.

Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Review was originally published on RobustTechHouse - Mobile App Development Singapore

#Machine Learning #mobile #app #development #singapore

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anthonygraham2 · 6 years ago

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Caffeine and Its Ability to Enhance the Weight Loss Process

Are family gatherings becoming a problem because of the pounds gained? Christmas is coming and you don’t know what to do to start losing weight! Have you perhaps, found the perfect dress for the occasion but that belly fat is distracting you as soon as you put the dress on? Yes, we all want to look good, but more importantly, we want to feel good and healthy. In most cases, it is our extra body weight that makes us feel unsatisfied with our body image and in the worst scenarios, even causing difficult health issues.

Of course, choosing a healthy diet plan and planning your weekly trips to the gym is the most reasonable and effective way to lose weight and improve your health, but nobody said nothing about not being able to use a few tricks hidden in your sleeve. One trick that we chose to discuss today we know that many of you will like it.

To reveal some details…it has to do something or everything in fact with our favorite drink – coffee! In the following article, we will discuss the use of caffeine in the process of weight loss and reveal whether or not this powerful compound can enhance your experience. Let’s start, shall we?

What is caffeine?

According to scientific research published in the Food and Chemical Toxicology, more than 85% of the U.S population consumes at least one caffeinated beverage on a daily basis. (1) It has been established that among the U.S population, the most favorite caffeinated beverage is coffee.

Oh yes, the sweet temptation that is coffee. A cup full of energy in the morning, a cup full of happiness at noon, a cup full of small talk and laughter shared with friends in the afternoon – it is simply perfect for every occasion. And as we will discuss in a little while, it is perfect for weight loss as well. But first, what is caffeine?

Caffeine is a known central nervous system stimulant. It is also a mild psychotropic due to its mood-altering attribute and a mild diuretic. What caffeine actually does is blocking a known inhibitory neurotransmitter called adenosine. By doing so, it increases the production and release of other neurotransmitters such as dopamine and norepinephrine which causes you to feel awake and energized as you finish your cup of coffee or any other caffeinated drink of your choice. (2)

Caffeine is declared as safe for consummation, and according to the FDA, 400 milligrams of caffeine or 4-5 cups of coffee on a daily level is considered to be a safe dose of caffeine. Caffeine is known to pose numerous health benefits including a reduced risk of cancer, stroke, heart disease, and diabetes. (3)

However, there are some side-effects to be expected in the case of an overdose. These side-effects include anxiety, nervousness, dizziness, headaches, uneven heart rate, sleep problems, and many others. We recommend to all of our readers and caffeine addicts to watch out for your daily dose of caffeine intake and keep it within the ranges of what is considered to be a safe dose of caffeine that we have mentioned earlier.

But where can you find caffeine other than in coffee? Despite the fact that coffee is the main source of caffeine since a cup of coffee is thought to contain around 150-200 milligrams of pure caffeine, there are other sources that you can try if you want to intake caffeine and for some reason, you want to avoid drinking coffee at the same time.

Most soft drinks have added caffeine containing around 20 to 70 milligrams of caffeine. And for the tea lovers, there is black tea, containing 47 milligrams of caffeine and green tea, containing 25% of caffeine!

Chocolate as well contains high amounts of caffeine since cocoa beans are used to produce it. A chocolate bar can contain up to 70 milligrams of pure caffeine.

You see, there are different sources of caffeine, and we hope that at least one is up to your expectations!

Caffeine and its ability to induce weight loss

And now we get to you, and we hope, yours as well, favorite part of today’s article. Now that you are well familiar with the basics about caffeine let’s discuss how this compound can help you lose weight.

Caffeine stimulates lipolysis

Lipolysis is the term being used to refer to a process in which the lipids in your body are broke down, and the triglycerides are turned to glycerol and free fatty acids. Lipolysis occurs mainly in the adipose tissue, and it is the main process which is responsible for mobilizing the stored energy during exercise. And caffeine stimulates and enhances this process. (4)

To make it simple, caffeine influences and speeds up the mobilization of stored fats from the fat tissue so that you would actually burn more fats and with that lose more weight. And that, of course, is possible by stimulating the nervous system and increasing the levels of epinephrine! (5)

Caffeine boosts up your metabolism

Stimulating lipolysis is one thing, but caffeine is also able to boost your metabolism as well. Caffeine is able to increase your metabolic rate and the higher your metabolic rate is, the more calories you are burning. It has been scientifically proven that caffeine is able to increase the metabolic rate for as much as 3-11% and higher doses are able to increase this rate even higher. (6)

This effect is especially seen when caffeine is consumed before exercise. A study found that consuming caffeine before exercise increases the number of fats burned during the exercise. (7) What actually happens is instead of burning carbohydrates in order to maintain good energy levels which you require during your exercise, your body is burning more fats instead and with that adding to the weight loss effect that you try to achieve!

Caffeine acts as an appetite suppressant

Caffeine is able to reduce your appetite and hunger which is always welcomed in the process of losing weight. You will be able to cut your usual calorie intake without feeling hungry at the same time. This will also help you to stick to your diet plan better, without feeling hungry and in need to starve yourself in order to achieve the goal of weight loss.

However, a study published in 2012, found that the appetite suppressing effect of caffeine is stronger in obese and overweight individuals rather than in individuals with a healthy weight. (8) In addition, since caffeine has a mood-altering attribute, as we mentioned before, it is able to influence your mood and help you achieve a state of good mood. And we all have experienced higher cravings and the need for comfort eating when we are in a negative mood. So by simply improving our mood, caffeine is able to suppress our appetite and the need to eat when we are not even feeling hungry.

Caffeine enhances your exercise

Not only is consuming caffeine before your exercise will help you burn more fats and with that enhance the weight loss process, but it will also enhance your exercise! According to a study published in the Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, consuming caffeine before exercising enhanced the exercise performance by 11-12% on average. (9)

You will feel more energized and ready for what is coming as soon as you enter the gym and start your workout routine for the day. We recommend you to organize your working out in the mornings, when it is possible, to use the energy that you have gained from your sleep the night before and that fresh, warm cup of coffee in the morning!

Caffeine boosts testosterone

The scientific research investigated the effects of a caffeinated gum given to rugby players at their halftime. The results showed that after 15 minutes, an increase of 70% in the salivary testosterone levels were reported. (10) This serves as clear proof that caffeine is also able to influence the testosterone levels and cause an increase. This is pretty significant thinking how important testosterone is in the process of losing weight and forming strong, lean muscles in the process as well.

Is it safe to use caffeine to enhance your weight loss process?

Although caffeine is rated as safe to use on a daily level to feel more energized, awake and even achieve the previously mentioned effects, focusing on weight loss, we want to remind you of the safe once again and recommended doses of caffeine on a daily level.

As we mentioned before, 400 milligrams of caffeine is considered to be safe according to the FDA. By consuming anything above that dose, you are putting yourself at the risk of experiencing the previously mentioned common side-effects by caffeine overdose.

In addition, although caffeine is safe to be consumed to achieve the weight loss effects, we want to remind our readers of one unfortunate fact. The thing is that, unfortunately, as we consume caffeine on a daily level, we actually become tolerant to the effects of caffeine over time.

What does this mean, you ask? This means that effects such as a boost of the metabolic rate and an increase in the fat burning process are only temporarily achieved with the use of caffeine. Over time, you become tolerant to these effects, and you stop experiencing them or you experiencing them at a much smaller rate as compared with the beginning. In order to achieve these effects once again, you would have to increase your caffeine intake on a daily basis. But this is where it gets tricky.

You are not supposed to increase your caffeine intake higher than 400 milligrams a day, as we mentioned before due to the risk of experiencing the common side-effects. However, that does not mean that caffeine will not help you at all with your weight loss process. This does not change the fact that we are talking about an effective weight loss agent. Caffeine is one of the few natural, effective weight loss agents out there, and you just have to be patient and believe in its effects.

Conclusion

Caffeine does so much more than simply wake you up in the morning. It suppresses your appetite, enhances your exercise, boosts your testosterone levels and much more in order to help you lose weight faster and most importantly using a healthy, recommended technique. Not to mention all of the other health benefits that caffeine has on our bodies.

Do not hesitate to choose caffeine on your side in your battle against those annoying extra body pounds. You will get to enjoy in its perfect taste and lose weight in the process!

References

(1) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278691513007175 (2) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4115368/ (3) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28675917 (4) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10068-010-0151-6 (5) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11815511 (6) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2912010 (7) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29727404 (8) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/oby.20190 (9) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1600-0838.2005.00445.x (10) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29210957

The post Caffeine and Its Ability to Enhance the Weight Loss Process appeared first on Phentermine Clinics Directory.

Source: https://phentermineclinics.net/caffeine-weight-loss-process/

from Phentermine Clinics https://phentermineclinics.wordpress.com/2018/12/19/caffeine-and-its-ability-to-enhance-the-weight-loss-process/

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jessette20 · 6 years ago

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Buzzsumo

Quick question: how does your brand’s social presence stack up against your competition?

Because if you’re looking at little more than followers and Likes as a measuring stick, you might be in the dark.

The reality? While these surface-level metrics can be valuable, they don’t tell the full story of your social presence.

Think about it. Comparing the Instagram activity of a small, local retailer to the likes of H&M or Old Navy would be apples and oranges.

And so if you want accurately measure your brand via social, you need to measure yourself against metrics that makes sense.

That’s where your competitive benchmark strategy comes in.

By conducting a competitive benchmark analysis, you can better understand your own strengths and how to stand apart from the crowd.

And hey, that’s exactly why we’ve outlined eight benchmarks to keep an eye on. The more you dig into these data points, the more actionable insights you have toward beefing up your social presence.

1. Content Performance

First thing’s first: marketers should have a strong pulse on what’s considered top-performing content in their space.

When you have a post that explodes in “Likes” and shares, it’s a clear signal that you’re doing something right in the eyes of your audience.

And similarly, you should know what your competitors are posting that’s scoring them the same sort of love.

The good news? These numbers don’t have to be a secret.

With the wealth of competitive analysis tools, you can quickly see what sort of content is killing it in your industry. For example, with BuzzSumo you can see the most popular content in your niche broken down by keyword.

Meanwhile, Keyhole allows you to see the most liked and retweeted posts coming from a specific competitor you have in mind.

Of course, none of this means much unless you know which sort of social content is working for you.

Analytics such as engagement reports in Sprout provide an in-depth breakdown on which of your pieces score the most traction. By analyzing impressions, engagements and clicks, brands have actionable insights on what they should be posting on a day-to-day basis.

By weeding out underperforming posts and content, you can consistently fine-tune your posts’ performance over time.

2. Timing and Frequency

Timing is a critical competitive benchmark as brands try to maximize the number of eyeballs they get on any given piece of content.

Based on Sprout’s own data, the best times to post on social media varies from platform to platform.

Either way, if you aren’t publishing your posts when your audience is most active, you’re inevitably stifling the reach of your content. Likewise, you’re providing an opportunity for competitors to swoop in for your followers’ precious attention.

Tools such as Sprout’s own ViralPost feature removes the guesswork so that brands can queue up their content based on the followers’ behavior. Oh, and the ability to schedule in advance takes away the pressure and headache of having to exclusively post in real-time.

Here’s some food for thought, though: brands should not only be aware of when they’re posting but also how often.

For example, if your competitors are consistently posing on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter multiple times today and you’re not, there’s likely going to be a gulf of difference in terms of your social followings.

As such, take some time to conduct a competitive audit that examines when, where and how often your competitors are posting. Doing so can clue you in on “dead” periods of time where nobody in your industry is posting, and likewise social channels they might be neglecting.

This also helps you save time by posting only when it makes sense based on data. Rather than try to pump out as much content as possible, you should strive to make every post count whether it’s through captions, hashtags and, of course, scheduling.

3. Engagement Rate

It can’t be said enough: your follower count isn’t the be-all, end-all of your social presence.

As a competitive benchmark, your brand’s engagement rate is much more important.

In short, engagement rate pits your follower count against how many likes, shares or comments that your social content scores.

A brand with 1,000 engaged, active followers is much more valuable than a brand with 10,000 followers that sit on their hands. Whether it’s due to fake followers or lackluster content, there are brands that have seemingly massive “followings” on paper but low engagement rates. It’s also important to understand what constitutes a strong engagement rate in your area of business.

Here’s an example of an engagement rate analysis using Phlanx on Instagram. Denny’s is known for its rabid base of social followers and scores an awesome engagement rate in response. If your brand was a competitor to Denny’s in this case, you could look at this engagement rate as a target for high performance.

Higher engagement means higher participation in your campaigns. This enthusiasm is much more likely to result in sales, brand advocates and a legitimate ROI for your efforts. Again, a massive follower count might look impressive but means little if it’s not producing results.

For this reason, brands should dig into their competitors’ follower counts to see how frequently they actually engage. Reports such as Simply Measured‘s comparative engagement analysis can clue you in without having to crunch the numbers yourself.

4. Types of Content

In pursuit of more engagement, brands should look at the types of content they publish as a key competitive benchmark.

Think about it. There’s so much diversity in terms of which formats perform best on which platforms. For example, consider the following:

Infographics are shared three times as much as any other type of content on Twitter

Customer photos and user-generated content are currently killing it on Instagram

Videos are among the most popular content on Facebook, with Live videos get six times more engagement than traditional ones

For example, Hubspot’s Instagram boasts everything from how-to education content and memes to motivational videos and beyond.

The takeaway here is that competitive brands don’t just post the same type of content again and again and expect results. Similarly, you should have an idea of how your content strategy serves as a contrast to others in your space.

As part of auditing your competition, try and see which types of content they might be neglecting.

Maybe it’s video. Perhaps they don’t do much in terms of user-generated content and hashtags.

Regardless, there are so many social media ideas to ensure your content strategy doesn’t look identical to your competitors’.

5. Growth Rate

Conventional wisdom tells us that if you consistently post and engage with your social followers, your presence will grow.

Publishing fresh content. Rolling out new campaigns. Going back-and-forth with fans. The list goes on and on.

And while these are all great actions to take, brands should be aware of just how much their social following grows as a result. As a competitive benchmark, growth rate examines how much your following has grown versus raw numbers which don’t mean much by themselves.

For example, while 1,000 followers in 6 months might seem like a flood to you, that might be a drop in the bucket to a big box brand (think: Starbucks, Target).

Reports such as Sprout’s audience growth analysis helps track your growth rate over time alongside your competition. This can help you see if certain campaigns were more effective than others, and likewise if your competitors did something that totally killed it.

And hey, as long as your numbers are ticking upward you’re golden.

6. Share of Voice

Do you consider yourself to be a leader in your industry? An up-and-comer? Somewhere in-between?

No matter what space you’re in, you’re likely jockeying for position among your competition.

Share of voice is a competitive benchmark that measures just how much you’re being heard against similar brands via social.

Boosting your share of voice ultimately involves contributing more to your industry’s conversation. This means posting thoughtful content, engaging with your audience and taking a stance on issues within your industry.

For example, are you up on all of your industry hashtags? Are you sitting on the sidelines when it comes to controversy in your space or are you taking a stand?

After all, you can’t expect much of a share of voice if your voice isn’t being heard.

7. Sentiment Analysis

Yet on a related note, there’s more to social media than just being the loudest voice in the room.

We live in a day and age where not all press is good press. Sentiment analysis as a competitive benchmark measures whether or not your brand mentions are positive, negative or neutral in the eyes of your audience.

This metric is especially important if you’re laser-focused on customer care and interacting with your followers. Likewise, you want to make sure you’re seen as the proverbial “good guy” in your space when placed next to your competition.

Sentiment analysis should most definitely be part of your social listening strategy to ensure that you capitalize on positive mentions and address negative ones.

8. Social Mentions

Scoring social mentions is the ultimate goal of any brand.

We want that sweet, sweet engagement. We want those conversations and moments to sell ourselves.

As a result, you need to know who’s talking about you and likewise who might be talking about your competitors. Again, this is why social listening is so important for tracking competitive benchmarks.

Because after all, not all mentions are created equal. Scoring a shout-out from a major industry player or influencer serves as social proof for your brand. The ability to track, measure and respond to mentions in real-time also signals you as a more active participant in your industry.

And with that, we wrap up our list!

Which Competitive Benchmarks Are You Tracking?

Listen: if you want to build the best social presence possible, you need to take a data-driven approach to growth.

Conducting a competitive benchmark analysis is a game-changer for brands who’ve been focused on little more than follower count.

If you’re hungry for a better ROI from social and want to know what to do next, these are the metrics that deserve your undivided attention. And hey, given the wealth of tools out there to help you track them, you can take action on your insights sooner rather than later.

But we want to hear from you! How much do you research your competitors via social? Do you make a conscious effort to avoid copycatting your competition? Let us know in the comments below!

This post 8 Competitive Benchmark Tactics to Measure Your Brand originally appeared on Sprout Social.

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minnievirizarry · 6 years ago

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8 Competitive Benchmark Tactics to Measure Your Brand