#nsfg

[mwg-out-of-context]

[beforus-for-real-justice]

hi. the askbox thing said to ask about your glowing bulge?

OH MY GOG I HAVE TO FIX THAT. TYZ WAS THAT YOU -MOD CIRAVA

[dirtgnome]

old gnomish proverb: the bigger the hat the better the dick

[letherightonein]

Gyns, I warn u from now, it's possible that we will see another bunk graph on "loneliness rising" due to a method change in the NSFG survey. They now have more online respondants than face-to-face ones, which can skew the results.

Before falling on moral panic, keep in mind that the distribution of sexual partners still doesn't show a concentration among 20% or 5% men, and the 1:1 ratio is still there. So, no loneliness driven by "hypergamy" and "women's choices".

Most important, the GSS survey measured in the past years the number of people who didn't have a sexual partner the last 5 years, and it didn't surpass the 10% figure for both men and women.

This is relevant because along with this moral panic there are certain buzzwords such as "epidemic" or "systemic issues", suggesting that loneliness is a permanent state for individuals since they can't fix by themselves the "systemic issues" that cause them to be lonely in the first place. In reality, even if people report in one year to be lonelier, the lifetime partners and partners-the-last-five-years figures remain the same; their loneliness is a temporary state affected by individual choices/preferences in the majority of cases.

[d1sc0-1nfern0]

NSFG : Not Safe For Gizmo

[and-then-there-were-n0ne]

Scholars have long known that youthful marriage is a strong predictor of divorce. For instance, someone who marries at 25 is over 50 percent less likely to get divorced than is someone who weds at age 20. Most youthful couples simply do not have the maturity, coping skills, and social support it takes to make marriage work. In the face of routine marital problems, teens and young twenty-somethings lack the wherewithal necessary for happy resolutions.

What about age at marriage past the twenties? Delaying marriage from the teens until the early twenties produces the largest declines in divorce risk, for totally understandable reasons: we’re all changing a lot more from year to year as teenagers than when we’re in our twenties or thirties. [...] Still, earlier scholarship found that the risk of divorce continued to decline past that point, albeit at a milder rate (as the figure using 1995 data shows below). And why wouldn’t it? Couples in their thirties are more mature and usually have a sounder economic foundation. Conversely, youthful marriage is correlated with lower educational attainment, which compounds divorce risk no matter how old you are.

But what was true for decades no longer seems to be the case. I analyzed data collected between 2006 and 2010 from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). The trick is to use statistical methods that permit nonlinear relationships to emerge (click here for more information on these methods). My data analysis shows that prior to age 32 or so, each additional year of age at marriage reduces the odds of divorce by 11 percent. However, after that the odds of divorce increase by 5 percent per year. The change in slopes is statistically significant. The graph below shows what the relationship between age at marriage and divorce looks like now.

This is a big change. To the best of my knowledge, it’s only recently that thirty-something marriage started to incur a higher divorce risk. It appears to be a trend that’s gradually developed over the past twenty years: a study based on 2002 data observed that the divorce risk for people who married in their thirties was flattening out, rather than continuing to decline through that decade of life as it previously had.

How can this change be explained? The first step to answering this question is to see if the pattern persists after adjusting for a variety of social and demographic differences between survey respondents. Indeed it does: thirty-something marriage continues to yield a higher divorce rate even after controlling for respondents’ sex, race, family structure of origin, age at the time of the survey, education, religious tradition, religious attendance, and sexual history, as well as the size of the metropolitan area that they live in. Note that the NSFG is a cross-sectional survey, which means that all respondent information was collected at a single point in time. Consequently the effects of education, religious attendance, and other impermanent demographic attributes on marital stability may not be causal. Results involving these variables should therefore be treated as provisional.

None of these variables seem to have much of an effect on the relationship between age at marriage and divorce risk. Additional tests revealed that the relation seems to function more or less the same for everyone: male or female, less or more educated, religious or irreligious, intact or nonintact family of origin, and limited versus extensive sexual history prior to marriage. For almost everyone, the late twenties seems to be the best time to tie the knot. [...]

My money is on a selection effect: the kinds of people who wait till their thirties to get married may be the kinds of people who aren’t predisposed toward doing well in their marriages. [...] More generally, perhaps people who marry later face a pool of potential spouses that has been winnowed down to exclude the individuals most predisposed to succeed at matrimony.

There are obvious strengths and weaknesses to this sort of explanation. [...] But we do know beyond a shadow of a doubt that people who marry in their thirties are now at greater risk of divorce than are people who wed in their late twenties. This is a new development. This finding changes the demographic landscape of divorce, and lends credence to scholars and pundits making the case for earlier marriage.

Note: Unadjusted estimates of divorce in NSFG in 1995 and 2006-2010.

[spiritualdirections]

Falling birth rate not due to less desire to have children

This article has been written in several forms over several decades. People want to have more children than they actually end up having. I read a version of it, also using the NSFG data set, that found that women used to be pretty good at predicting how many children they would have, but then as they started delaying marriage for the sake of work, they became pretty bad about predicting their future fertility. This study emphasizes that people today want kids, they just aren't having them. That suggests that there's something about our culture which is getting in the way of people being able to have the families they desire. There are many explanations of why family sizes are shrinking that assume people don't want kids; this data shows that they want them, they just aren't that good at getting what they want. Perhaps they need to move out of the cities, or have their payroll taxes reduced, or have better childcare and parental leave policies available. They certainly need to get married and start having kids earlier if they want to reach their goals. In any case, if we adopt the modern view of government that it is supposed to help people live out their own life plans, then the gap between wanted and actual children is something policymakers should consider as important.

'The researchers used data from the National Survey of Family Growth, which has been asking people about their childbearing goals and behaviors for several decades. The NSFG doesn’t interview the same people each time, but it allowed the researchers to track a group of people born around the same time – a cohort, as scientists call these groups – as they passed through their childbearing years.

'They looked at 13 cohorts of women and 10 cohorts of men born between the 1960s and the 2000s. They were all asked how many children they intended to have, if any.

'Americans have been pretty consistent with how many children they say they want to have from the 60s to the 2000s,” Hayford said. “Men generally say they want slightly fewer children than women do, but, like women, their preferred number of children hasn’t changed much.”

'The percentage of people who said they don’t plan to have any children has increased, from about 5-8% in the 1960s and 1970s to 8-16% in the 1990s and 2000s.  But that alone can’t explain the decline in the number of babies being born. Hayford noted that the number of unintended births, especially among people in their 20s, has declined in recent decades, which has helped reduce the birth rate.

'“But that doesn’t change the fact that people aren’t having as many children as they say they want, especially at earlier ages,” Hayford said. “It may be that they’re going to have those kids when they’re 35, but maybe they won’t.”

'For example, the study found some evidence that people are reducing the number of children they say they intend to have as they get older. “As they age, they may be realizing how hard it is to have kids and raise kids in the United States and they’re saying they only want to have the one child, and don’t want a second one,” she said.

'In addition, would-be parents may have more difficult conceiving as they get older.

'Larger economic and social forces are also having an impact on birth rates. The birth rate declined significantly during the Great Recession that started in 2008, which is a typical response to an economic downturn. However, the birth rate continued to decline even after the recession was over, Hayford said.

'This study ended before COVID-19, but the pandemic served as another fertility shock, at least at first. “It remains to be seen whether fertility will be able to rebound not just from the Great Recession, but from the pandemic as well,” she said.

'For those who are concerned about America’s dropping birth rates, this study suggests that there is no need to pressure young people into wanting more kids, Hayford said. “We need to make it easier for people to have the children that they want to have,” she said.  “There are clear barriers to having children in the United States that revolve around economics, around child care, around health insurance.”

[mwg-out-of-context]

[absurd-construct]

DONT TAG ME IN NSFG LIKE THIS!!!

Old, tumbled down field wall in the dell.

[theygotlost]

o’brien is the best star trek character full stop

[scynopsis]

I made this in correlation to the WizardBrave Hanahaki Fic . Finally posted a new chapter after 7 months. 

[kirus-grotto]

~Vil oneshot~

Vil x GN!reader

Vil decides to have himself some fun after a day of work

Mature/18+

Vil had just finished up his most recent photoshoot. He wiped his brow before grabbing a bottle of water, and politely thanking the crew. A hand ran through his hair as he went back toward his dressing room, and locked the door behind him.

Inside, in the far corner was his lover crouched, leashed, and exposed; arms bound behind their back, vibrator strapped to continuously tease, blindfold covering their eyes, and an open mouth gag allowing a stream of their drool to leak out.

Vil instantly smirked upon seeing them in such a state. “My my my,” he said, “Just look at you. Utterly and completely revolting.”

Only a gasping whine responded to him. Purple eyes narrowed as he frowned. “Now darling,” he crooned as he pulled on the leash, “You could sound a little more enthusiastic. After all,” here he paused to smirk, “I can finally do with you as I wish.”

The leash was tugged once more earning Vil a satisfactory noise. “That’s much better.” He undid his belt, pants lowering just enough to release his hardened member. “Now your reward.” He added, pulling the leash once more to force himself into his darling’s mouth.

Vil kept pulling on the leash, making them deepthroat his needy cock. “Ohh darling,” he breathed, “I’ve trained you well.” His free hand moved to firmly grasp onto their hair to be able to thrust into their mouth more aggressively. The feel of his darling potato moaning around him nearly had his own eyes rolling back.

The next thing he knew, his lover had cum all over themself and his own clothing. “Now now. These were all brand new.” He scolded. “I suppose we can stop this now.” And with that he pulled out of their mouth to graciously turn off the vibrator.

A small, relieved whimper came out of their throat. “And I suppose this could come off too.” Vil added as he gently took off the gag. “It feels much better to feel your lips around me.” He roughly forced himself back into their mouth, both hands now gripping onto their hair.

“Fuck,” he whispered, eyes rolling back. “I just love how your throat feels.” Vil kept thrusting into his lover’s mouth, their tongue working the way they knew he loved while they themself gagged trying to catch their breath.

After another few minutes of fully thrusting into their throat, Vil flicked off the blindfold. “Look at me,” he ordered.

His darling looked up through their tears, both of their gazes meeting each other. One final, aggressive thrust, and Vil yanked on the leash to keep them in place as he released himself down into their throat. Violet eyes rolled back into his head as his dick pulsated, his lover doing their best to swallow as much as they could.

Vil pulled out, some of his semon dripping down out of their mouth in the process. “Now dear,” he said, panting slightly, “I believe you know not to waste a drop.”

“P-Please..” they said. “Please for-forgive me..” they breathed heavily, trying to lick around their lips to catch it all.

Vil caught hold of their chin, making them look into his eyes once more. “I believe you know I’m not the forgiving type my dear.” he said coldly. “Now bend over. It’s time for your punishment.”

[bog-teeth]

drew spamton with a walkman and just. in other clothes

im normal <3

[rbs are appreciated]

[kgyst]

Hamar megtalálták a c��lközönséget

[renegadepropaganda]

what is you opinion on free looms at loom.com

Sounds like a scam.