#now from the looks of the average delay between us and uk

[lindsaywesker]

Good morning! I hope you slept well and feel rested? Currently sitting at my desk, in my study, attired only in my blue towelling robe, enjoying my first cuppa of the day. Welcome to Too Much Information Tuesday.

Nearly 1 billion people will go to bed hungry tonight.

We never ‘lose’ friends, we just learn who our real ones are.

The poorest Americans are still richer than 80% of the world.

Magic mushrooms grow in the gardens of Buckingham Palace.

One-third of Taiwanese funeral processions include a stripper.

51 cars a year overshoot and drive into the canals of Amsterdam.

In 1999, ‘mp3’ surpassed ‘sex’ as the most-searched term online.

According to her last wishes, Elizabeth Taylor arrived late for her own funeral.

Though sloths are known for their slowness, sloth sex lasts less than a minute. (30 seconds more than most men!)

Patience is not the ability to wait but how you act while you're waiting.

4000 children under the age of two are listed as owners of British companies.

Couples that tease each other gently often have happier, stronger relationships.

7% of American adults believe that chocolate milk comes from brown cows.

The sentence "Are you as bored as I am?" can be read backwards and still makes sense.

There is a place in Norway called Hell and it regularly freezes over during the winter.

British adults spend (on average) one hour and 52 minutes of each day in a bad mood.

We are subconsciously more attracted to people who have the same taste in music as we do.

Millennials (those born between 1981-1996) are having less sex than their parents did at their age.

In 1982, 43% of fathers in the UK had never changed a nappy. By 2000, this had dropped to 3%.

Unhappy people tend to daydream about the past but happy people tend to daydream about the future.

A sapiosexual is a person attracted to intellectual or mental qualities rather than physical characteristics.

A person that truly loves you will never let you go or give up on you, no matter how hard the situation is.

90% of the time it's not the person you miss, it's the feelings and moments you had when you were with them.

The chemical resveratrol, which is present in red wine, has been found to boost sex drive and performance in men.

Most ‘laugh tracks’ for TV were recorded in the fifties, which means many of the people you hear laughing are no longer alive.

If you want to quit smoking, go to a sauna for three days in a row and you'll sweat out the nicotine, which will make it easier to quit.

Senior citizens in New Zealand can join ‘coffin clubs’, where they meet up once a week to make and decorate their own coffins.

During the Fastnacht parade in Germany’s Black Forest, people hit each other with inflated pigs’ bladders attached to dried bull penises.

'Euphoria' Season 3, 'The White Lotus' Season 3, and 'The Last of Us' Season 2 are being delayed due to the writers’ strike. (Just bloody pay them!)

Part of Rupert Murdoch’s divorce settlement with Jerry Hall states that she is not allowed to give plot ideas to the writers of ‘Succession’.

Countries around the globe celebrate their freedom on Independence Day, with the most common being independence from British rule.

The first recorded use of the word ‘woke’ - to mean well-informed - was in a New York Times glossary of “words you might hear in Harlem” from 1962.

Research shows that heterosexual men who learn to play extreme metal guitar are mostly motivated to do so in order to impress other heterosexual men.

A study of 7000 US adults has found that, after the COVID-19 pandemic, people have become less extroverted and less agreeable. (No shit, Sherlock!)

Ethiopian languages have a punctuation mark for sarcasm. It is called ‘temherte slaq’ and looks like an inverted exclamation mark. (Christ, I’d be using that all day!)

Bruno Mars’ 'Doo-Wops & Hooligans' has now spent 12 full years on the Billboard Top 200 album chart. It's the first debut studio album in history to reach this milestone.

In 1871, lawyer Clement Vallandigham was defending a client accused of murder. In demonstrating how the victim might have accidentally shot himself, he accidentally shot himself. He died. His client was acquitted.

In 2007, a Bosnian couple cheated on each other with each other. They had spent time in a chat room bonding about their marital woes. When they met in person, they found out the person they had been complaining to was their spouse. They got divorced.

The first edition of the Oxford English Dictionary included the word ‘cock’ but excluded ‘condom’. The male genitals were not considered taboo but contraception was a subject “too utterly obscene for the dictionary”.

Okay, that’s enough information for one day. Have a tremendous and tumultuous Tuesday! I love you all.

[thefinancehouse]

Stamp Duty Deadline Approaches

Rising Demand for Chain-Free Homes as Stamp Duty Deadline Approaches

With a significant surge in demand for homes that are chain-free, the UK property market is buzzing as buyers seek a speedy move to beat the looming stamp duty hike due to the Stamp Duty Deadline. A recent report by Zoopla highlights that 32% of homes currently on the market are listed as chain-free, a significant draw for those keen to finalise their purchase before the April deadline.1 Changes are Coming in April 2025 The reason for this urgency? From 1 April, the threshold at which first-time buyers start paying stamp duty will drop back to £300,000 from its current level of £425,000.2 This change means that a first-time buyer purchasing a property valued at £425,000 would face a stamp duty bill of £6,205, whereas previously they paid none.3 The costs climb even higher for properties priced between £425,000 and £625,000, with buyers facing an additional £11,250.3 Not only first-time buyers but also home movers are affected by the changes. From April, the stamp duty threshold for these buyers will be reduced from £250,000 to £125,000, potentially adding up to £2,500 in extra costs. This has led to a heightened interest in chain-free homes, with Zoopla reporting a 9% spike in views and a 33% increase in buyer enquiries.3 The benefits of a chain-free property Why chain-free? For many, it’s the promise of a smoother, quicker purchase. In a chain-free sale, there’s no need to wait for the seller to find their next home, significantly reducing the chances of delays or the sale falling through. “Now is a great time to look for properties, with more chain-free homes available than in previous months,” said Izabella Lubowiecka, senior property researcher at Zoopla. She adds that many chain-free homes result from circumstances such as inherited properties, investors offloading assets, or households merging from two homes into one.3 Location of Property               England               Northern Ireland               Scotland               Wales              Do you currently own a property?               No, I'm a first-time buyer               Yes, I currently own a property               No, but I have owned a property in the past              How will you use the property?               Live in property               Buy-to-let               Holiday home              Property Value (£) Calculate Additionally, looming council tax hikes for second homes, set to take effect in April 2025, are prompting some investors to sell sooner rather than later.3 These properties, often marketed as chain-free, may offer an attractive option for those eager to beat the upcoming financial changes. “More investors and second homeowners are choosing to sell due to these policy shifts, adding to the supply of chain-free homes on the market,” notes property expert Matt Thompson of Chestertons.3 While a chain-free purchase may expedite the buying process, it often comes with a premium. Sellers, recognising the high demand for chain-free properties as the Stamp Duty Deadline gets nearer, are charging between 3% to 7% more, depending on the property’s location and condition. Based on Halifax’s average property price of £294,000, this could translate to an additional cost of between £8,820 and £20,580.3 For those eager to move quickly and avoid potential stamp duty hikes on the Stamp Duty Deadline, paying a little extra for a chain-free home could be worth the investment. However, with demand still outstripping supply, competition remains fierce. As April 2025 approaches, the rush for chain-free properties is only expected to intensify, making this a dynamic and competitive time in the UK property market. Sources: - Zoopla (2024) House Price Index: September 2024. Available at: https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index-september-2024/  - BBC News (2024) Stamp duty: What is it, how much is it and how is it changing?. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53319433  - This is Money (2024) Two thirds of homes on market are chain-free, as buyers seek a quick move ahead of stamp duty hike. Available at: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-14060069/Two-thirds-homes-market-chain-free-buyers-seek-quick-ahead-stamp-duty-hike.html  All the information in this article is correct as of the publish date 28th November 2024. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. The information provided in this article, including text, graphics and images does not, and is not intended to, substitute advice; instead, all information, content, and materials available in this article are for general informational purposes only. Information in this article may not constitute the most up-to-date legal or other information. For more mortgage advice go to Brighton Mortgage Broker - The Finance House Please be aware that by clicking on to any of the above links you are leaving our website. Please note that neither we nor HL Partnership Limited are responsible for the accuracy of the information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page. Read the full article

[sa7abnews]

While our politicians engage in culture war nonsense, five people die on streets of Belfast within a week…

New Post has been published on https://sa7ab.info/2024/08/06/while-our-politicians-engage-in-culture-war-nonsense-five-people-die-on-streets-of-belfast-within-a-week/

While our politicians engage in culture war nonsense, five people die on streets of Belfast within a week…

If you follow the news, the biggest story of the week seems to have been an overexcited peeler driving around a roundabout. The police officer celebrating Armaghs All Ireland victory, is depending on your political views, either a massive PR boost for the PSNI with the Catholic community or reckless endangerment and and an example of the PSNI losing all independence. My reaction was a shrug of the shoulders and a view that that whole incident has been blown completely out of proportion. But where the situation takes a darker turn is that the BBC reports that five people die on streets of Belfast within a week. From the report:

Speaking to BBC News NI’s Good Morning Ulster on Thursday, Jude White, chairperson of the Welcome Organisation said: “As I was informed last night by one of my senior staff, there has actually been five deaths now since last Tuesday and before the sun goes down tonight there will probably be another death. “The public have a right to know, is the closure of a day centre directly related to these five deaths? One has to be speculative here, the likelihood is yes, but it’s by no means absolutely certain.” The five people were all known to services – four were homeless. He described the situation has “the biggest crisis” the organisation has “ever faced”. With five people dying on the streets in a week, the outreach team are concerned. “Not all of these were drug-related deaths, one was a blind man with quite complicated health issues,” Ellie said. “He was released from Maghaberry [prison] with no GP, no medication and a long history of heart attacks. “He died in his tent.”

I have issues with the report trying to frame it as consequence of the closure of the day centre, the sad reality is overdose deaths are now a regular occurrence all over Northern Ireland. NI has a really bad drug problem that is devastating families and communities, and it is not just an issue in cities, addiction is in every town and village. Again from the report:

The change in the types of drugs people are using in Belfast is very obvious. Cocaine is the drug of choice now due to its availability, and most people are injecting it. The UK government previously said 84% of those injecting drugs in Northern Ireland were injecting cocaine. That’s compared to just over 5% in 2018. “People are injecting 20 to 30 times a day – that’s 20 to 30 new holes in your body,” Ellie said. “People are more confident when they are using cocaine, they’re more brazen.”

Here is the NISRA data on drug overdose deaths in NI:

Figures show there were 154 drug-related deaths registered in 2022. While this represents a decrease of 59 (27.7%) from the 213 drug-related deaths registered in 2021, it is important to note that registration-based figures build in delays arising from system wide processes which can drive annual fluctuations in the series. Since 2012, NI has seen deaths due to drug-related causes rise by 98% from 110 to a peak of 218 in 2020 and to 213 in 2021. The 2022 total (154) represents a 40% increase on the number of drug deaths registered a decade ago. The majority (82.5%) of all drug-related deaths in 2022 were classed as drug misuse deaths. Of the 154 drug-related deaths registered in Northern Ireland in 2022, over two-thirds (69.5%) were men. Looking at the number of deaths by age, the 25-34 and 35-44 age groups together accounted for 55.8% of all drug-related deaths in 2022. Each year over half of drug-related deaths have involved an opioid. Between 2020 and 2022, an average of 118 drug-related deaths each year had an opioid mentioned on the death certificate. The number of deaths where alcohol is mentioned on the death certificate of drug-related deaths has been declining over the last decade. In 2012 the proportion of drug-related deaths involving alcohol was 31.8%, falling to 17.6% in 2022. Over two-thirds (68.8%) of drug-related deaths in 2022 involved two or more drugs. In contrast, in 2012 60.0% of drug-related deaths involved two or more drugs. While cocaine is not the most frequently mentioned drug on death certificates in 2022, it has emerged as the predominant substance mentioned in deaths involving only one drug in 2022, constituting 9.1% of total drug-related deaths and 35.0% of single-drug deaths. Belfast LGD had the highest age-standardised rate of drug-related deaths in 2022. (14.3 deaths per 100,000 population). Drug-related and drug-misuse deaths continue to be higher in areas of highest deprivation.

So although there is no connection between the overexcited peeler and these deaths I think it is very telling that there has been no outrage from our politicians about these deaths on the streets. No urgent meetings with the Health Minister, no press releases or tweets. For clarification I am not just bashing Unionism, the rest of the parties are no strangers to getting caught up in petty nonsense and ignoring the big issues. Nor do the rest of us get off easy. This is a multifaceted societal problem that we all need to play a part in solving. I recognise the huge challenges of the problem. For those of us who have been unlucky enough to have had family or friends with addiction issues they can be very tiring and hard work. At our darkest moments we might even think they would be ‘better off dead’ or when they do die we can look upon it as a ‘relief to the family’. It is a horrible situation but I get angry when I see politicians metaphorically stepping over the bodies of addicts to give a sound bite of some culture war nonsense. These hundreds of deaths every year are someone’s son or daughter, brother or sister, mother or father. They deserve more than indifference from our politicians and wider society. We need to do better.

[lulusoblue]

UK FINALLY got to air "The Power Inside Her"

I’ll put my thoughts at the end of the post, for now enjoy some live commentary of my ongoing thoughts, featuring @onthespectrumwriting and tested & approved by @call-me-the-cooky-one

• intro so far: love Leo sitting nearby like the concerned bff for April’s sake “look your powers scare me but Donnie getting closer to mad scientist levels is scarier”

• lulu: OF COURSE THIS GOES WRONG spectrum: what did they expect to happen yes poke the big scary unknown force with a stikc great idea!!!!!

• lulu: *ties crystal of destructive power to a leash* bad crystal spectrum: i love raph’s solution to things

• April cuddling up to Leo = awwww now we know the writer’s true agenda; they were faking us out for Aprinardo all along i mean CUDDLING can’t be platonic and that isn’t worry on Donnie’s face, it’s JEALOUSY

• i have yet to see all the “Apritello” people say this episode has aside from them just basically interacting with each other and if it’s his concern over the crystal well then the show must be dropping hints for pairing her with every male in the main cast

• lulu: EEEEEEYYYYYYY MY PUCKHEAD GETS A SPOTLIGHT AGAIN get rekt TC spectrum: yo casey was AMAZING in this ep soak in the glory that is the trash child

• lulu: also just remembered Rahzar is still alive spectrum: somehow even though april killed him lulu: dude can get run over by a train and be fine later like that’s actually scary spectrum: yeeee puckhead can kick his ass tho lulu: he sure grilled Fishface that’s for sure

• lulu: *pokes the crystal with a stick literally instead of figuratively* “I think i’m beginning to get it now” get what that the crystal is bad? spectrum: its never said that donnie practices Safe sciencing

• lulu: April force choking Donnie is what I live for now spectrum: ha ha ha holy fuck donnie lulu: like it should be the go-to for forced romantic advances spectrum: donnie you poor sot

• Splinter being the one to first snap her out of it and not Donnie /clearly/ they’re shipping her with Splinter and we have to call out Nick for grossness ASAP WHY ARE THE PEOPLE SO BLIND

• also holy shit she’s turning into a dungeon boss

• lulu: oh look she’s crying Casey’s name while focusing on saving people IT’S CANON WHEN WILL THE BLIND SHEEP SEE?! (this is totally not me being a biased shipper because that would be hypocritical) spectrum: (oh obvs, but watch how she ignores him the rest of the ep) lulu: (fool, there is only Za-Naron the rest of the ep) spectrum: (i will see you in court on why that’s not entirely true) lulu: (and ignorance obviously means love if Apritello can get away with it)

• we are introduced to Za-Naron https://youtu.be/7jz7rFuZZZc all i am thinking watching this

• (poor casey has no grappling hook)

• me: don don’t say it Donnie: Give me the crystal me: oh my god YOU’D THINK HE’D KNOW BETTER THAN TO ASK FOR IT BY THIS POINT aaaaand donnie go bye bye

((at this point time difference takes a hold and spectrum must sleep, i venture onward alone))

• well April’s sad moment over Donnie didn’t last too long almost like there wasn’t enough time in the episode to really flesh out the seriousness of this arc

• Hun stares death in the face and laughs ajdbwjsndksnxek we need more 2012 Hun he’s such a confident ass

• “but what if April’s still in there?” Casey you are the only one allowed to properly emote in this ep, like relish your spotlight Case 👌 STOP ZOOMING IN ON CASEY’S WOBBLY LIP WE GET IT YOU FORGOT TO HAVE ANYONE ELSE BE SAD OVER THE SITUATION

• OH JESUS SHE’S BLOODBENDING RAPH’S BODY NOW

• “HEY BEFORE YOU KILL ME REMEMBER HOW YOU ALREADY KILLED DONNIE” that’s what I’m getting here nothing that shippy and she only destroys he crystal after Leo reminds her /she’s/ the only one who can APRINARDO IS CANON CRY SHIPPERS CRY THE BASIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TWO CHARACTERS DO NOT LIE

• finally she uses that tanto i was beginning to think it was an ornament with how little it was utilised

• “it was /all me/ in a way” oooooooooooooooo now THIS LINE why are people ignoring THIS LINE

• from now on all death will be referred to as Molecular Scattering it’ll be what the Shadow Realm is to the Yu-Gi-Oh dub

• Donnie just letting April flop onto the cement PFFFFFFFT

• Everyone but Splinter just keeping their distance

• CASEY STANDS UP SOON AS SHE’S AWAKE I’M CALLING CAPRIL IF PEOPLE CAN CRY APRITELLO WHEN DONNIE GETS FORCE CHOKED I CAN CRY WHEN CASEY JUMPS TO HIS FEET LIKE SOMEONE WAITING FOR NEWS ON A LOVED ONE AT THE HOSPITAL

• “hey i know you guys are nervous about my powers since i kinda blew one of you up and bloodbended the shit outta Splinter and Raph but CHECK OUT THIS SICK MOVE” *levitates sword from her belt into her hand*

All in all I still enjoyed the episode. I really wish we had some more build up to Za-Naron, or maybe a two-parter for the conclusion of this arc. The boys could have emoted a little more, but I put that down to how much that had time for in the episode and not the writing team trying to make the death of a brother a “no biggie” for the rest of the team (again i really think this should’ve been a two-parter).

Honestly S4 is kind of cramped in terms of story. Space doesn’t feel as important, Karai VS Shredder doesn’t feel as important. IMO they should’ve made space take up the whole season, if only so we could explore it more or have the chance to build some urgency, then had S5 focus on taking down Shredder so we’d have more action there *cough*andShini*cough*. Of course, that would be more in an ideal world, where Playmates isn’t breathing down Nickelodeon’s neck and the writers have no fear of not being renewed for a sixth season.

I’m really hopeful that S5 is a little more focused. From what we’ve heard thus far it sounds like they’re going for more contained story arcs, a little like TMNT 2003 had with their various shenanigans and mishaps. ‘course I probably won’t be too bothered by anything at all so long as we get more Karai and Shinigami. *shakes fist* WE’D BETTER GET MORE KARAI AND SHINIGAMI

disclaimer: my comments on shipping do not necessarily focus on Apritello… mmmostly, i’m just an adult with extra salt who remembers how much one can read into things if it means making it about their ship. i did it with Digimon, i did it with Pokémon, shipping is just a big mess of stockpiling screenshots of your OTP standing within close proximity to me 😶

[mariacallous]

In a country understandably gripped by a feeling of autumnal doom, the 11th-hour cancellation of the latest burst of train strikes may look like a welcome outbreak of calm, and of tentative optimism. Though some sources whisper that the rail unions may be adjusting to the fact that the industry has very little money, the RMT’s Mick Lynch says the industrial action “has made the rail employers see sense”, implying concessions that have yet to become clear.

But from the perspective of the average passenger, even if the unions’ disputes with Network Rail and the train operating companies are somehow resolved, everyday life on the lines will still be a trial. The government, let us not forget, is on to its third transport secretary in not much more than six weeks, and the confounding mess now overseen by the freshly promoted Mark Harper almost defies description.

Besides the strikes, the most vivid example is the awful chaos currently gripping trains in the north of England and Scotland. Thanks to the train company Avanti West Coast, journeys between such cities as London, Manchester, Stoke-on-Trent, Birmingham and Glasgow have been cut back, only to be further plagued by cancellations, delays, overcrowding and grim customer service.

TransPennine Express (TPE) trains, which serve a huge range of towns and cities including Hull, Manchester, Glasgow and Sheffield, are in an even worse state of disarray. What both stories have in common is the involvement of FirstGroup, the multinational transport giant that claims to be in the business of “making travel smoother and life easier”. To an almost surreal extent, the current reality suggests the exact opposite: people peeing in Pringles tubes, lying on train floors and – particularly in the case of disabled travellers – enduring nightmarish experiences.

What is going on here? For a very long time, train companies have kept services running via drivers working on their official rest days and being paid overtime: a cheaper option, in the short term, than recruiting and training more staff. The result has been a precarious system kept running by goodwill – which, at Avanti and TPE, seems to have long since dwindled away. Rail experts say that the government has serially ignored FirstGroup’s failures, and carried on handing it fees and favours it simply doesn’t deserve. Tellingly, the Department for Transport’s solution to the west coast mainline’s meltdown has been to extend Avanti’s contract, a move that the train drivers’ union Aslef curtly sums up as “a slap in the face to passengers and staff”.

One thing is now clearer than ever. The recent history of Britain’s trains is much the same as that of the country itself: a hare-brained plunge into privatisation and crony capitalism, followed by endless underinvestment, chronic short-termism and that achingly familiar approach to industrial relations that regards partnership and consensus as suited only to wimps. Worse still, as with so many of the constituent parts of everyday British life, the pandemic delivered a shock from which the system shows no signs of any convincing recovery. The World Economic Forum now places the UK 29th in its global rankings for the quality of its railways, in between Kazakhstan and India. Compared with the rest of western Europe, what we now have to put up with is not just unacceptable. It is not normal.

In response to all these woes, the government has wriggled and writhed but not come up with anything that meets the scale of the railways’ problems. Two years ago, it began a shift away from so-called franchising arrangements with train companies to more straightforward contracts: instead of keeping revenue from tickets, the companies now get fixed fees and performance bonuses, and risk has largely been transferred to the state. On paper, that looks like a step in the right direction, but it might actually entail the worst of all worlds: trains still largely run by private firms on short contracts, which are therefore reluctant to invest for the long term; and a suddenly nervous Treasury eyeing a financially fragile railway system that it sees as yet another thing to cut.

In May 2021 the then transport secretary, Grant Shapps, announced a policy change centred on a new body called Great British Railways – which, it was said, would oversee “the backbone of a cleaner, more environmentally friendly and modern public transport system”. The plan is now nowhere to be seen. Last week’s apparent shelving of a new line connecting Hull, Leeds, Bradford and Liverpool arrives in the midst of other proposed improvements that are either uncertain or very late (a long-promised upgrade to lines used by TPE, for example, is only just beginning, after a decade-long delay). In that context, the government’s belligerent approach to the strikes – now seen in “minimum service levels” legislation aimed at weakening the impact of stoppages and curtailing basic employee rights – has just been a desperate distraction from a long record of torpor and inaction.

The only viable alternative is plain enough: the Labour party’s plan to renationalise the railways as train companies’ contracts expire (which would largely happen in the first term of the next government) and institute what the shadow transport secretary, Louise Haigh, calls “an integrated national system, with passengers as a proper priority, rather than shareholders, and long-term investment”. This sounds roughly like what we need, but make no mistake: given their dire and broken-down state, bringing the railways up to modern standards will take decades.

Last week, I travelled from my home in Somerset to the north-west. It used to be a simple enough journey, largely taken on a direct hourly service between Bristol and Manchester, which has now been cut to only two trains a day. This trip, by contrast, took the best part of six hours, and entailed three changes. Thanks to a cancellation of my final train owing to a “broken rail”, I spent a particularly joyous 45 minutes at Crewe – where, as the latest Avanti service arrived at the station, there came a striking announcement: “This train is very busy today. Customers with flexible tickets may want to travel on a different service for a more comfortable journey.” Where, you could only wonder, were these options of space and comparative luxury? Thanks to logic worthy of communist eastern Europe, the same incantation seemed to greet every Avanti train that stopped at the station.

On the platforms, there was a mood that seemed to mix fatalism with fury, as befuddled passengers asked for answers from staff who seemed to have no more clue than they did. The branch-line train I finally boarded was filthy, smelly – and, judging by its juddering motion and shabby decor, at least 30 years old. Here, once again, was the dullest, most everyday proof of failure on an unimaginable scale, and the evidence for a question we ought to be asking ourselves: if a 21st-century country cannot move its people from place to place, what kind of state is it in?

[masterthespianduchovny]

The counter argument to people being against Sam/Rebecca for legitimate reasons are claims that Sam is being “infantilized.”

These age gap conversations in general are difficult to have because one side won’t acknowledge that just because two people are adults doesn’t mean they are in the same place emotionally and mentally. And this is a very important thing to note.

Someone being 18, a legal adult in America (I think you can date adults at 16 in the UK), doesn’t mean they are able to date a significantly older person, say 38, without a problem. Because, more times than not, which is an understatement, there’s a lot of fucking problems in an age gap relationship even if the older person isn’t dating the younger for nefarious reasons.

It is not infantilizing Sam or any young adult to say, “hey, this relationship may be detrimental to them because of their age.” That is just…facts.

Many people on tumblr and other SM sites often talk about how they still feel like kids at 22 and are still figuring life at, despite having jobs, kids, and shit. Despite being in full blown relationships, these young adults don’t feel like adults and that’s because you aren’t magically mature just because you’ve reached an arbitrary age to be declared a legal adult.

You just aren’t.

And being mature in one aspect of your life or regarding emotional development doesn’t mean you’re mature in other aspects. At 17, I was mature enough to understand this.

Because maturity isn’t just something you obtain like your degree or license, it’s an ongoing, ever evolving thing.

It’s life experience. As in how you learn and grow from it.

Acknowledging that someone doesn’t have significant life experience isn’t infantilizing them, it’s giving an important perspective to a crowd of who is essentially arguing “age ain’t nothing, but a number.”

If you’re all for an 18 year old dating a 38 year old, why not a 16 year old and a 36 year. It’s only a two year difference, right? And what if that 16 year old is really mature? Most would have an issue with that. People are justifying a significantly older person dating a younger person due to legality and not they are actually mature and on the same level. But there’s not much difference between a 16 and 18 year old or an 18 year old and a 20 year old. But guess what, there is a significant difference between people between the ages of 18-22 dating people a decade or more.

I literally just turned 30 last week and, even when I was 25, after a while I could tell when I was speaking to a teen or someone in their early 20s. Because, whether or not you get along with them, there are just some things that, because they haven’t had enough life experience, they don’t have the nuance or perspective to engage with you a certain way and this is even on a non romantic level.

And, in some cases, the younger person is more “mature” not because they’re actually that mature, but because the older person is that immature.

So before I get into the issues with Sam and Rebecca, let me give you four examples of age gaps relationships:

1. A friend of mine dating an older man when she was 23 and he was 38. She was a manager at a gym and he was a gym member. They would have sex and hang out, but she wanted commitment. Whenever she asked him about it, he’d get weird on her. After finally breaking it off months later, he “loved” her and finally wanted commitment, but she’d moved on. While she dated him, I told her my two cents on the situation and left it alone. Last month, she recalled this conversation as she groaned in displeasure hearing about an age gap relationship. She’s now skeptical of older people dating significantly younger people.

2. A friend of mine was 18 dating a 28 year old. We all worked at a pizzeria. He watched her on the cameras from the back when he became a manager—got mad if she talked to male coworkers. Used to gaslight her, controlled her via manipulation, and other gross toxic shit. After emotionally tormenting her for a year or so and pressuring her to live with him, which her parents allowed due to some issues they didn’t want to exacerbate, he cheated on her. They’re broken up now. She was always stressed out while with him.

3. A girl got into her first and only relationship when she was 19 with a man who was 32. They’re now married 23 and 36. She wants to wait to have kids and on her birthday he gifted her baby clothes. Make of that what you will.

4. A girl, 22, dated her 37 year old professor. At 28, she feels like she’s outgrown him and is disturbed about how and when they got together. And one night she heard him advise his friends to date younger girls so they can mold them. Yeah…

Sure you have marriages that have age gaps that lasted, but even then, very few of those are actually healthy. The younger person is usually taking orders from the older partner, can’t do certain things, doesn’t have any true agency, skills to survive on their own, etc. What typically happens is after that person becomes older, they begin to question their relationship because what seemed okay when they were younger, is unsettling after becoming older.

Like I said, take out the nefarious shit, and there is still a significant life experience gulf between Sam and Rebecca and that is one of the many issues with this pairing. Despite what some romantics and media loves to say, “love does not conquer all.” Most of the marriages that end in divorce isn’t because they couple fell out of love, it’s due to finances. Love couldn’t conquer that. Some marriages end because one of them changed or they could’ve overcome their vast differences.

I’m not saying Sam and Rebecca are on a path for marriage or are even in love, they aren’t, however, they idea that just because they get along and have some things in common means it would be a great relationship is very shortsighted. There isn’t even enough significant interaction to prove this. Getting along on an app isn’t the same as connecting face to face. And none of this can overcome Rebecca’s life experience and, relatively speaking, Sam’s lack thereof.

And I’d argue that, on average, athletes tend to be immature because they live in such a bubble where people constantly kiss their ass. Which makes Sam look more mature than he probably is.

Even then, being with an older person ages you. This younger person misses out on so much, many of which they regret, because they’re trying to be mature enough for their older partner. They don’t want to seen as immature for doing young shit when that’s exactly their age range.

But let’s get into the real consequences for Sam here:

1. Sam has to keep his relationship a secret. The media will tear him up about dating/fucking the owner of the team. And so will fans. People love to mention he’s being infantilized because he’s young and black, how do you think that is going to go if anyone finds out about them? Racism, baby. He won’t suffer from sexism, however, they will question his place on the team and if he deserves to be there. This will taint him and even cause issues with his parents. So secret relationship it is.

2. If his teammates found out, this will fracture his relationship with them. Whether or not it’s true, Sam will be blamed for shit outside of his control. They’ll think he only got more playing time, more pay, or whatever because he’s fucking Rebecca. OR they’ll try to ask him for favors and get upset if he won’t do it. His team will think he’s getting favoritism and believe there is a power imbalance between them and Sam as a result. Don’t believe me, Google dynamics once students realize a classmate is dating their teacher or an employee is dating their boss. It usually doesn’t go over so well.

So even if the relationship is loving and healthy, Sam will suffer from being with Rebecca. Because if it's a secret, it’s going to bother him eventually that they have to sneak around and the anxiety of being caught. If it’s out in the open, he will suffer harassment, alienation, his play will suffer because his teammates probably won’t pass to him, etc.

Which leads to, 3: transferring teams. But how is that fair? Sam is developing well under ted and now that may delay his development and stock just so he can be with Rebecca? We want this young, black man to succeed, but his career will be kneecapped due to his relationship. Sam is serious about football and this would be a major blow to him.

Like I said, take out nefarious shit and this relationship is still detrimental to Sam. And even with a healthy relationship, there will still be a disconnect that will lead to their relationship ending because they are in two vastly different places in their lives.

That is not infantilizing Sam, that’s reality.

And, again, that power imbalance is massive. We saw how easy it was for Rebecca to send Jamie back to Man City. She has so much power, control, and influence over Sam’s career and livelihood. She can dictate how much or how little they offer to pay him during contract negotiations.

And this is the ship people are getting upset at others rightfully taking issue with?

It doesn’t even make sense for Rebecca to go along with this either. She played a part in Keeley breaking up with Jamie, which age, Jamie being younger, played a key part in it. She’s even disgusted by Rupert dating a significantly younger woman. I doubt her opinion centered on maturity. She’s not going to suddenly support this relationship if she found out that Bex is super mature.

Rebecca would stand to lose a lot of she were to get involved with Sam and others found out. She’d get dragged through the mud worse than she did after her divorce. She’s lose them support of her staff. And it would fuck up the relationship she has with her players.

Now some Sam/Rebecca supporters have called bullshit on people who are against this relationship, yet support Ted and Rebecca. They claim it’s the same power imbalance or that one exists.

1. It’s not the same power imbalance.

2. Yes, one does exist, but it’s not nearly as wide as it is with Sam and it wouldn’t destroy her either.

Ted has the authority to hire and fire people. He has the authority to facilitate trades, call up people, and send them down. He has a lot of influence that Sam does not. They aren’t equals, but there also isn’t a massive power disparity either.

Rebecca also can’t completely fuck over Ted like she can Sam if she went all scorned woman. Because, doing so, would entail her own demise. Even if you don’t include that, Ted is only attached to Richmond. He doesn’t care about having a career as a football coach in the ways coaches from non US countries do. He can go back and have a career as an American football coach and still be massively successful. Or, if Rebecca did want to fuck him over, he has that bomb as to why he was hired. Ted doesn’t even have to play that card for it to be played by either Higgins or Keeley.

Because one of them will if they feel it’s necessary.

We have no clue what’s going to happen with this storyline. But the idea that people against Sam and Rebecca being a thing, romantically or sexually, being fueled by racism or sexism is misguided, hypocritical, and flat out wrong. If this entanglement is pursued, it stands to harm Sam from various angles and that’s MY objection.

People think this is all about Ted/Rebecca when, personally, I’d lose (some) respect for Rebecca if she got involved with Sam. That would taint her for me. Because let’s be real, many of us are grossed out by Rupert dating, marrying, and then impregnating Bex. Yet, some are okay with Rebecca and Sam getting together and those who are against it are sexist? And I truly believe the same people supporting this ship are also grossed out by Rupert’s relationship.

How is Rupert’s relationship gross, but we shouldn’t obsess over age with Rebecca and Sam? People say Sam is mature enough to date Rebecca, which implies that Bex isn’t mature enough to be with Rupert and that IS sexist.

Even if the writers confirm tomorrow that Ted/Rebecca will never be a thing, I wouldn’t object any less to Sam/Rebecca. If Sam was Roy’s age and in Roy’s position, I’d have way less of an issue.

But you’re going to have a tough time convincing me that a young man who is 20/21 and employed by a 47 year woman who can heavily influence his career isn’t a massive power imbalance that shouldn’t be explored by fans.

I’m really curious to see how this post ages once the storyline plays out. But this post is about exploring what it means for Sam and Rebecca to get involved and how the accusations of infantilizing Sam doesn’t pass the sniff test.

[wizkiddx]

i saw that you at least used to write for harry could u do another? like maybe im just a basic bitch but 'only one bed' trope or sm

Summary: honestly just me shitty attempt at the only one bed thing ahah with Harry Holland x reader

no warnings I don’t think apart from my ramabling :)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

God you were groggy. It had been a long 16 hour flight and you were well and truly completely over this day. Once you’d had some proper sleep, no doubt you will be beyond excited to explore the forest and beaches of this remote island in Indonesia. You were certain it was beautiful, even if you’d arrived in the dead of night so you couldn’t see any of the majesty yet. It was one of the joys of being Tom’s makeup artist - travelling the world and being paid for it? A literal dream. 

Except maybe the previous 24 hours. The Holland name carried a lot of weight in the world, but not enough to control typhoons across the tropics - there were some limitations to his power. And yes first class lounges were nice but none had beds to crash on during the 6 hour weather delay. The four of you (Tom, Harry, Andrew and yourself)  ended up camping out in a out-the-way corner. Tom got the long sofa; Andrew in one of those weird egg line chairs; you and Harry splayed on the floor. Why you’d had to get up at 4 am to catch a flight that was now not departing till 12 hours later actually hurt to think about - especially because you’d all gone out for a meal the night before that had inevitable went a lot later than planned. 

Two connecting flights with a very angry baby later, the four of you were checking in to the only hotel on the island - which was now almost exclusively filled with the production team for Tom’s newest movie. It wasn’t especially big-budget with massive million pound overheads, instead a smaller scale indie film (that you privately thought might earn Tom a number of accolades). But yeh, shooting on an island that received almost no tourism meant everything was different to the usual. None more so than for Tom and his team (including you) who he normally would look after very well, with the nicest hotel rooms or rental homes. 

The hotel was basic, you’d known that before you arrived but seeing is believing is it not? Most entertaining though, was seeing Tom’s face. Andrew was a well travelled older guy, he had stayed in some shitholes in his life. Equally you and Harry had both travelled when you were younger (you through inter railing and him in australia), so had stayed in hostels before. But for Hollywood star Tom Holland? The way he tilted his head to the side as if to say ‘really this place?’ did lift your spirits momentarily. 

Andrew had got his key first, bidding you all good night with a grunt, then Tom - who still seemed confused as to the whole arrangements. It left you and Harry at the small dingy reception, the warm glow of an old lantern-esque light fixing illuminating the place. The guy behind the desk was a smiley local and greeted you warmly, if incorrectly.

“Ah and finally the couple I see!” He spoke with a thick accent but still very clear English which had you questioning if this was just a translational error. Harry looked at you instantly, his eyes wide which made you scoff - him joining in, shaking his unruly curly mop emphatically.

“No no we um… we aren’t together.” All the while Harry pointed between the two of you, communicating through actions rather than just the language, given that you were both the very typical Brits abroad who hadn’t learnt the language of the place they were visiting. 

“Still under Holland name?” The guy asked in a perplexed manner, flicking through a book filled with cursive scribbles and scanning to see if he’d made a mistake. He checked one, then looked up nervously before checking the same page once again- you saw where this was going. ”We, we only have couples room down for you though? 3 double rooms is the booking for Holland.” 

It was late, you both stunk of a combination of plane and BO, you both just wanted your individual and respective beds. 

“Well can we get another room then?” Harry didn’t quite snap but there was still an impatientcy to his voice, which came out whenever he was a little agitated. Seeing the slightly worried look the mans eyes, you leaned onto the desk with a genuine smile. 

“Sorry we know its last minute and its not your fault, we’ve just had a really long flight.”

“I am terribly sorry miss but we are only small hotel and Hollywood has filled us up. I have no other rooms. I am truly sorry sir, ma’am.” The guy went from looking worried to terrified as Harrys jaw tensed up, you naturally squeezed his arm to try and ground him, instantly deciding that you’d just work it out. 

“No no it’s not your fault, don’t worry we’ll figure it out. Can I just get the key?”

Harry stepped back and let youtakeover proceedings, signing all the insurance documents etc and asking the man about the breakfast arrangements and such, though you saw him furiously typing on his phone and by the buzzing in your pocket- presumed he was messaging the group of you Tom, Andrew and himself. 

Once finished the guy pointed you on your way, up two flights of stairs and down a hall. The whole time Harry was muttering about how useless the other two were for not replying and also for making the wrong booking in the first place. If only you hadn’t been the last two to checkin, then it would’ve been someone else’s problem.

He felt especially guilty just because you were the only girl-  he didn’t want you to feel uncomfortable, hence why he was trying to locate his brother so they could share tonight till they got it figured out. The tension, combined with sleep deprivation, was palpable as you both walked in silence toward the room - Harry was trying to formulate a plan in his head as they did so. And honestly? You just couldn’t be bothered to deal with it. So, once you reached the door 57 holding the physical key (old school, rather than a key card) you just decided to address it. 

“Will you chill please?” 

“Well if my idiot broth-“

“Oh leave him be for god sake. If you’re okay with it I really don’t mind sharing with you tonight?” Not bothering to laugh at his slightly shocked expression with mouth hanging a little open, you fiddled with the key until the lock clicked open. From the entrance you had a pretty clear view of the whole room and… well, lets just say dated would be a fair expression - when compared to what you were used to? The floor was tiled and the bed was a small double, with some funky and slightly washed out prints of blue and red on the cover. The pillows looked a little limp, more like glorified pieces of cardboard than anything fluffy and comfortable. The walls were that yellowy magnolia shade that everyone in the UK had gone insane for in the 80s and there was an old school wooden wardrobe in the corner. 

Home for 5 weeks. 

With a shrug of your shoulders you entered, dumping your personal and work suitcases by the far wall carelessly - the higher priority action being to collapse on the bed. Doing so with an overdramatic huff, you let your eyes close but payed special attention to the delayed footsteps of Harry as he entered, then the slight creaking noise as he perched on the other side of the bed - no doubt looking at you, at least slightly fearfully. 

The relationship between you and Harry was complex to say the least. Well no… it should be, not on the face of it. You had met through work and made friends. And you wished it was that simple but alas, nothing ever really is. When you’d first worked with Tom you were in the tail end of a relationship you had long since forgotten about - literally meaningless, not worth the time and effort you’d put into it. From the start you’d had a feeling Harry was more interested in you than the average co-worker (even if your job and therefore co-workers were anything but normal and average) but you were in a relationship so nothing ever came. 

Then almost as if synchronised, just as you got out your relationship, Harry threw himself in the deep end with a girl he’d met through his family friends. Then the roles were somewhat reversed, you now spent a good chunk of your day just entertaining yourself with thoughts of the curly headed, slightly awkward, very-passionate-about-tea-making Holland. The cliche is so real - your always want what you cannot have. 

However, a couple months ago his relationship had fizzled and faded away leaving both of you in a sort of no mans land. The sort of not wanting to ruin the friendship situation. The subject was never broached by either you - except you assumed he was being tormented in a similar way to how you were by his big brother and Andrew. Never publicly, yet whenever you found yourself alone in a room with one of them (being Tom’s makeup artist that happened often enough) there would always be a sly dig. The chemistry was  so ‘obvious even a blind man could see it’. Somehow though, weeks of this and your were still stuck. Stuck in the middle. 

“You sure you’re alright with this?” His voice was gruffer and hoarser from the long journey but you could hear the self-consciousness and naivety in his tone, without having to peel your eyes open and look at his face. 

“I know your not a murder and plus, we shared the airport floor this morning… this is pretty much the same.” He hummed in acknowledgement so you carried on “and plus your pint sized.” That earned you a playful shove in the side as you sniggered, before pulling yourself up so you we now sitting next to him, legs hanging off the edge of the bed. His brown eyes searched deeply into yours, as if physically checking for any hint of regret or hesitation. “Don’t even dare offering to go on the floor.” 

“Okay okay okay!” Holding his hands up in surrender, you both laughed, breaking the peace of the late night of the remote Indonesian island. Once an impressive yawn interrupted you though, Harry proclaimed it was time for bed and shooed you into the bathroom to get changed and sorted. 

Honestly you were too tired and lazy to dig out your cleanser and skin stuff, instead opting to just splash a bit of water on your face before swapping into your pj shorts and an old tattered oversized tee. Once done you and Harry swapped, him coming out a couple minutes later in basketball shorts and a black loose fitting tee. 

It wasn’t awkward so to speak, more a sort of excited-tense atmosphere, which there was no doubt Harry was mainly responsible. The boy was jittery and on edge, which to put simply, you didn’t have the energy to reciprocate. 

With a quiet wish of goodnight to each other, Harry flicked off the bedside lamp and you both rolled to your respective edges of the bed, a large space of no mans land between you. In the middle. You know the first time you share a room with someone and you overthink everything? When you don’t want to move about or fidget too much in case it disturbs the other? When your listening intently to their breathing, in the hope it’ll even out and only then will you feel able to fall asleep yourself? 

Well it doesn’t work when both of you are doing it. When both of you are professional over thinkers. 

God knows how long it took till you gave up, favouring sleep over your worries and concerns. So you flipped over, no doubt rocking the whole bed, turning to face his back that was still huddled almost teetering off the edge of the bed. The only light within the whole room was that coming under the actually scarily large gap between the floor and the door to the hallway. It was just enough to see the back of Harry’s curls and you must’ve fallen asleep trying to trace all the torturous and windy routes of the strands.

///////////

In the morning the process of waking up didn’t come easy to you as normal for many reasons; the long day prior; the jet lag; the weird surroundings. So you stayed in this sort of blissful haze for probably longer than you should. Half aware but not really; half asleep but not quite. In the middle  of sleep and alertness. Therefore it took you longer than it should have to notice the extra weight on the dip of your waist. Not anything alarming, just a presence you were absolutely not used to. It was only when you shifted a bit to lie further on your back, that enough of a stimulus from the added pressure made you actually open your eyes blearily. And sure enough, a limp hand looked to have casually and unconsciously been thrown over your side. 

As if in slow motion, you traced the arm backwards - first with your eyes, but then having to twist your neck too. Only then could you fully see the browny ginger haired boy who was lowkey spooning you? It was certainly a way to fully wake you up, breath halted to a stand still in your lungs, in fear of disturbing him and having to confront what would almost certainly be an awkward situation. 

There was still a safe hands width distance between the two of you except for the rogue arm. Harry’s head was placed to the edge of his pillow, mouth slightly parted as his breathing slightly tickled the wispy hairs on the back of your neck. He looked so peaceful and calm - a difference to the normal Harry who, even on a good day, took great pleasure in meticulously picking things apart and being a bit cynical. It was part of his ‘charm’; but seeing him like this was a type of vulnerability he rarely chose to show. 

To be fair he was asleep, he dint realise he was exposing himself in this way.

Finding yourself a little transfixed (a bit creepy but hey) on the natural curves and definition of his face, you ever so carefully rolled over in the bed to face him. It stopped you from craning your neck and gave the sleepy boy a slight nudge, making him tense his arm a little more tightly round you. 

He settled quickly though, giving you ample opportunity to just observe what was going on . Both right in front of you… and what the hell was going on in your head. Because to be honest it was an overwhelming amount of emotion thoughts for the early morning. 

Somehow you must’ve eventually drifted off once again because the next thing you were aware of was a shuffling from immediately next to you. This time though, you were instantly aware of exactly the situation you found yourself in and chose to keep up the pretence of sleep - a little interested in how Harry would play it. 

You heard a small gasp, having to suppress a chuckle at what you imagined Harry’s sleepy and panicked face looked like. That lasted a couple of moments, before you felt him painstakingly slowly peel his hand from your waist and if you were being 100% honest… you heart sort of sank. 

What you had been expecting?- you don’t know and really there was really no reason to be disappointed. Yet, you still felt this deflated and disappointed feeling, hit your chest especially hard. Perhaps it was because of your focus on that emptyness that you forgot you were supposed to be pretending to be asleep./.

Because when he had delicately brushed the side of your face to tuck a rogue bit of hair behind your ear - your eyes flickered open.  Like a rabbit caught in headlights, Harry froze, his hand still hovering over your jaw. Equally, you didn’t know what to do. Because really… do friends tuck hair behind the others ears? And do friends look at each other with this matched expression of confusion and fear? 

It took a painfully long time (though in reality was probably only a matter of seconds) before the boy retracted his hand, suddenly sitting up from his reclined position down at you. Mirroring his actions, you both ended up sitting, facing the opposite wall, bodies closer than they needed to be in the double bed. Both still very much in the middle. 

“I er-“

“-No no don’t… was nice of you” He had been about to apologise which you didn’t want to hear. You didn’t want to hear ‘ I didn’t mean it’ - you wanted him to mean it. In response Harry nodded jerkily, and from your peripheries, noticed he was searching your face for any sign of emotion.

“Still can’t believe this all happened… I-I didn’t disturb you too much did I?” He sounded really nervous. You were never like this with each other. So static and forced. 

“No no… I slept really good actually.” Your register was quieter, waiting till you’d finished speaking before looking over at him with a self conscious smile. 

“Ah I’m glad… I um-I did too.” The silence returned and the atmosphere just felt sharp. It felt like you were quite literally walking either side of a knife edge. It made you chew on your bottom lip, playing with the slightly frayed edges of the vintage quilt. 

“Y/n- I look…” He’d bolted upright and voice was more raised than normal for the morning. “This is gonna sound so fucking weird, especially cos we’re literally in the same bed but... but I was thinking we could maybe go on a hike or something together?” What he seemed to be suggesting didn’t match the level of panic that was conveyed in his body language which confused you. And what the bed had to do with it… was yet to make sense in your head. 

“I think Andrew said we’re getting some tour of island this afternoon so-“

“ I kinda meant just you and me.” 

The penny dropped and it had you focusing all energy on processing what was happening - understandably causing Harry to only worry more with the lack of response. “I’m sorry if I’ve ruined ever-“

“No I-I….I’d really like that too.”

“Oh er… well… really?” The sheer shock made you giggle, feeling the two of you sliding back into the normal dynamic.

“Normally a boy has to buy me a drink before he gets in my bed but….” A mischevious smirk that spread across your lips gave Harry the final confirmation that just maybe you were interested too, making him scoff and quietly chuckle.

It was odd; mainly because this was the two of you being incredibly vulnerable and honest with each other - something that you hadn’t allowed yourself to be for fear of messing things up. And then one lazy morning, both with morning breath and slightly puffy eyes, it changed. For the first time when you looked at him, he really saw - and vice versa. You were still in the middle of something, yet it was completely different. 

This time you were in the middle together figuratively as well as literally. In the middle of the bed, closer than you needed to be, but not wanting to retreat - while you both just looked shyly and bashfully at each… Eventually you lips hesitantly met in the middle. 

[toomanyfandoms02]

Evidence // Spencer Reid x Reader

HEY guess who's back. I'm SO SO SO sorry for the delay. I've been having the most SERIOUS case of writers block and I'm finally pulling myself out of it YAYYYY. So here ya go.

Not a request, but I couldn't resist this prompt!

Summary - Spencer and Reader get locked in the evidence room.

Prompt - “What on earth happened in here?"

Word count - 2.9k

Spencer and I often stayed after together to finish up work. We didn't like to have to wake up so early to make touch ups. So here we were, sitting on the floor in the back of the evidence room. We were sat behind tall filing cabinets, a dim lamp lit beside us.

We were working a case in Arizona involving 3 girls. It was running relatively smooth, the problem was that the police station that we were placed at was in the middle of nowhere. And that was proven by the signal warning on my phone.

*unable to send message.*

Good thing it wasn't anything important.

There were multiple pages sprawled out in front of us, we looked between them all.

"I don't think we will have to stay too long after today." I commented. "It looks like we are working pretty fast this time around."

"I guess we're getting the hang of this " Spencer laughed, writing something down.

*click*

I craned my neck around the cabinets, wondering if someone was coming in the door. Seeing no one, I turned back to him, shrugging my shoulders.

We continued for another hour (and 28 minutes by Spencer's count). I stacked the papers together, shutting them in a folder and tucking it under my arm. I stood from my previous position, stretching my back.

"That's enough sitting on a concrete floor for me." I complained, hunching over and dragging myself to the door. This earned a laugh from Spencer. I reached for the knob, eager to get to the hotel and sleep.

But the knob only jiggled.

And jiggled.

And didn't budge.

"Uh. I think, I think the door is locked." I whispered, turning to Spencer slowly.

"No way." He stated, lightly pushing me out of the way. I listened as he jiggled it, desperately trying to turn the door knob. His head was placed against the glass, hands framing his eyes while he looked out the small doors window. "The lights are all off out there. I think they are on night patrol."

"Well this is thrilling." I laughed, slumping onto the floor. I pulled my phone from my pocket, holding it in the air and attempting to call Emily. The call started, my excitement being crushed by a warning on my phone.

*Your call cannot go through at the moment, we are unable to find a signal.*

Well fine then.

"Do you know how to pick a lock?" He asked.

"If there was anyone that knows how to pick a lock, I thought it would be you."

"Why?" His posture looked stiff and offended.

"You know everything." I deadpanned offering a dumb look. He rolled his eyes at this and sat down across from me. "Do you think we'll die in here?" I asked nonchalantly. Spencer squinted his eyes at me.

"Well statistically, no." And that's all he said.

"Is that all you got?"

"I'm too tired to ramble." He groaned. His head was leaned back on a cabinet. "But I will say that on average night patrols and at around 3:30 to 4 am. So we have quite a few hours to kill." The clock on the wall read 11:17. Yeah, we had some time to kill.

"Alright, we aren't just gonna sit here. We are gonna play games, I can't stand to sit in silence." Spencer sat up slightly, flashing me a confused look.

"Like what?"

"We are going to start with would you rather. I'll start." My head started sorting through all of the would you rather questions I had been asked that I loved and found the perfect one for this genius.

"Would you rather lose the ability to read or the ability to speak." I watched as he opened his mouth to answer then closed it, thinking again. I thought this would be a pretty obvious answer for him.

"I think I would lose the ability to speak. I could do nearly everything the same. I would just have to write my findings down." He sat in thought for a moment. "Would you rather have unlimited international first class tickets or never have to pay for food at restaurants?" I was thoroughly surprised by the question.

"That's a good one! I definitely want to travel, but I do eat a lot... First class tickets. I want to see ancient ruins, can't walk to them." I laughed. We played this game for around 10 more minutes before getting extremely bored of it.

"Alright enough of this." I groaned, coming up with a new idea. "We are gonna play two truths and a lie. Pretty straight forward, I'll start and you try to guess which one is a lie." Spencer nodded and waited. "I broke my leg while falling from a tree when I was 9, I've had a crush on someone on the team, and I once ate nerds candy for a whole week when I was 7 and had to get my stomache pumped." The last one had his eyebrows furrowing. I remained still and emotionless so he couldn't read me as well.

"I completely believe that you ate candy for a week and had to get medical attention as a result." He pointed out oh so graciously. "And you're a total klutz too, so it wouldn't surprise me if you broke your leg. Plus I think I'd know if you ever liked someone on the team. Final answer you've never had a crush on anyone on the team." He looked so smug in the moment, this just got me more pumped to wipe that smile from his face.

"Nope." As expected, his face immediately fell.

"Who did you like!" Spencer's arms were flailing in exasperation.

"I don't have to tell you that." I chuckled. "Now you go." My foot kicked his lightly, egging him on. He gave a glare and moved on reluctantly.

"I'm afraid of the dark, the only reason I drink coffee is because I had a crush on a girl who liked it, and I drank 11 cups of coffee one day and was up for 39 hours straight."

"You definitely drink coffee because you like it and not because of a girl, lie." There was no question about it, that would be a dumb reason to drink something.

"Actually that is why I drink coffee."

Huh?

"The lie is that I was up for 39 hours straight, I was only up for 35."

"Christ Spence!" I shook my head in disapproval. "Tell me about the girl." I could see his cheeks flush in the slightest. ~~Silently wishing that I could make him feel like that~~

"Her name was Josephine and she lived on my street. She and I would play chess together in the park whenever I wasn't studying, and she would bring a cup of coffee every day. Eventually, in my own way to impress her, I started bringing coffee too. And she liked that, but of course we drifted apart because of how fast my life was moving. It's unfortunate." He was staring down at his hands now. "You and her are very similar. I think that's why we've gotten so... close." That comment got me very curious.

"How were we alike? If you don't mind me asking."

"She was kind and funny, never let anyone down. And she was intelligent. Not only in personality either, you have the same color hair and eyes. I bet you guys would have gotten along really well." I could see him making his thinking face, I assume he was looking into past memories.

"That's so sweet." I kicked his foot with a smile, bringing him back to reality. "So, last round until we are playing the dreaded truth or dare ooooOooOooOooo." Spencer laughed and rolled his eyes. "I use to have a cat named Piglet because of how obsessed with Winnie the Pooh I was, my first boyfriends name was Spencer, and I play guitar."

"There is absolutely no way your first boyfriends name was Spencer, it's the 828th most popular name. That would be nearly impossible or a crazy coincidence." His hand gestured were out of this world at this point, completely flabbergasted that I would even try to tell him such a *lie*.

"Wrong again pretty boy, that's true. His name was Spencer Allen Sallow. The only reason I remember his middle name is because I remember his initials being 'SAS'. Are you ready for truth or dare?"

"I guess." He mocked annoyance and threw his head back.

"Ok, truth or dare?"

"Truth."

"If you could make one wish, right this second, what would it be?" He stared at me intently for a moment, as if he was looking for the answer in me. He then lightly shook his head, it was so small, but hard to miss considering we were practically having a staring contest.

"I would wish for the door to be unlocked so I could sleep at the hotel." His head nodded.

"Boring, I choose dare." I was now sitting much closer to him, waiting for whatever that beautiful brain could come up with. Spencer looked to the papers on the floor and then back at me, an evil smirk forming on his lips.

"Do a snow angel in our paperwork." My shoulders slumped.

"What if I rip something!" I wouldn't usually whine like this but *geez* I did not want to redo all this.

"Just be careful then." I looked at him with a pleading look. "Oh so you're *boring*." That's what got me.

"**Fine!**" I slowly lowered myself onto the papers, flattening out and looking up to Spencer, he was hovering over me slightly in a criss-crossed position with that evil smirk. His hands gestured me on.

I laid my arms and legs and and moved them, hearing the paper scrape against the floor and giggling. I had to admit, it was fun. And if having fun with Spencer meant I had to redo a few papers.

Then so be it.

I sat up after Spencer told me I'm done through fits of laughter, holding his stomache and nearly toppled flat on the floor. I looked around happily to see most papers were only crinkled, not ripped. I'll just have to flatten them out tomorrow.

"Okay asshat, truth or dare." He tapped his chin, looking daring for once.

"Dare." Perfect.

"Serenade me." I crossed my arms over my chest as I watched his face fall.

"With just my voice?"

"Oh no no, I have an instrument, the bag I carry with us on cases is like a never ending bag." I reached into the giant bag and pulled out a ukelele case, but not an *ordinary* uke case, a *mini* uke case. "Can you play ukelele?" I pulled it from the case, handing it over to him.

"No, but I may be able to pick it up."

"So you will actually serenade me!?" I got my hands ready to clap.

"Sure, why not." I clapped infinitely fast, watching him pluck at the strings a bit and lean back into the cabinets. Then he started on a beat, one that I recognized.

"Put your head on my shoulder, hold me in your arms, baby. Squeeze me oh so tight. Show me that you love me too." I listened to him through the whole song, knowing full well that as soon as he was strumming that ukelele I was already done for.

"How did I do?" He strummed the last chord and look up at me with a smile.

Oh how I wanted to tell him that he serenaded me to the sun and back.

"That was amazing! You learned that om the spot?"

"Yeah, like piano. It's basically just math and note remembrance." He shrugged, setting it back in my case. "Truth or dare."

"Truth."

"What's the first thing on your bucket list and your biggest secret?"

"You can't ask two questions, that's cheating!" I laughed.

"You technically never specified that so, answer."

This little shit.

"Fine. The first thing on my bucket list has been the same since I was an 8th grader, which is to fall in love. And I know that's cliche but I'm sticking to it." I didn't want to tell him my biggest secret. Truth be told I had a pretty normal life, so my biggest secret was my attraction to him. After telling my mom about it she told me workplace romances were dangerous and wrong, so I tried so hard to get over it. But it's not going away, it's doing anything but that.

"Come on y/n, I'm not going to judge you for your secret."

Yeah uh huh, sure.

"It's embarrassing, and I would prefer not to tell you in a locked room so I can immediately escape after I tell you. So can I just tell you when the door gets unlocked?"

"It can't be that bad."

"It is."

"Please Y/n!"

"I like you!" His mouth shut quickly, tilting his head like a confused puppy. Now that I had given out my biggest secret, I felt a little... powerful. I crossed my arms firmly over my chest, maintaining eye contact, my heart pounding out of my chest. He wanted the truth and he got it, I hope he's happy to be stuck with me in this room for another hour and a half.

"Really?" Was all he could say.

"No. I just said that I could have awkward tension swirling around the room for the next hour, I love doing that." I replied in the most monotone voice I could muster. A very faint smile was appearing on Spencer's face, making me a little nervous. He quirked one eyebrow.

"Are you sure it's not sexual tension?"

What?

My eyebrows raised at the question. Was he... flirting with me? I didn't know he knew how to do that, let alone so *well*. He began speaking again.

"Truth or dare?"

"It's my turn to ask you."

"Truth. Or. Dare." Who knew Mr. Sweatervest could seem so intimidating.

"Dare."

"I dare you to act on your biggest secret." Is this some weird way to make me kiss him, because it's working. If we aren't on the same page, this is about to get Mega embarrassing, but I don't think this could get any weirder. I crawled forward, placing myself on his lap and staring into his eyes. I've never seen him smile so big.

"Are you sure about this?"

"Actually no, this is awful you should really stop." He deadpanned, lightly placing his hands on my hips.

"One, since when do you use sarcasm. And two, I hate you." I giggled, pulling his face to mine. One of his hands fled to my cheek, rubbing his thumb across it. He pressed further into the kiss, all while pulling me impossibly closer.

Is this real?

I pulled one hand away from his face, putting it on the skin of my thigh and pinching myself.

"Ouch shit!"

And apperantly I don't know my own strength.

"Are you okay?" Spencer's face was a wave of concern, scanning over my face quickly to make sure he didn't do something wrong.

"Yeah I was just, pinching myself to make sure this was real." I lifted my hand to his shoulder, resting it there.

"Why? Is this like a lot of your dreams?" He winking obviously at me as I slapped his chest.

"Please stop." I whined, pulling myself off of his lap. "I'm very tired and we still have an hour left, are you up for a cat nap?" I pulled a blanket from my bag. "We can use this as a pillow, it's already pretty hot in here."

"Definitely." I made it into a pillow, giving him enough room. He slung his arm around me, burying his head in the crook of my neck. "Thank you for telling me. And for the record, I wouldn't want to be locked in a room with anyone else." And with many papers scattered messily around us, we fell asleep.

-

I shot up, hearing voices I knew all too well.

"What the hell is happening, since when it pretty boy a playboy."

"Finally! Now y/n can stop silently pining and telling me about it."

"I knew those two had chemistry."

I blinked slowly, trying to release the sleep from my eyes. Spencer's sleepy arm was still wrapped around my waist, unmoving. Once my eyes adjusted I was met with the staring eyes of Derek, Garcia and Emily. Then there was Hotch, just entering the room.

“What on earth happened in here?"

"We got locked in here and played some innocent party games." I explained gesturing to the messy papers. "Spencer dared me to make a snow angel in our files." I smiled sheepishly. Spencer was now stirring awake, sitting up and looking at our teammates. Derek held out his hand for a fist bump and Spencer highfived it weakly.

"Told you you would rope her in." He chuckled. I rolled my eyes at the comment and stood up.

"Let's finish up this case. We've only had 1 hour of sleep and I want this day to be over with already. Save the comments for when I'm asleep on the jet." And with that we were off.

But let's not ignore that Spencer and I's hands were clasped beneath every table we sat at that day, it's not to be ignored.

And I won't be forgetting that day any time soon.

[mjj-news]

MJJNews Provided By Anji~Justice240

MJJNEWS, PICKING -UP- WHERE WE LEFT OFF…  

In Loving Memory Of Michael Jackson 1958-2009

♥ You Know That L.O.V.E. Survives ♥ **  ♥ So We Can Rock Forever ♥  **

★January 2021★  

MJJNEWS, PICKING -UP- WHERE WE LEFT OFF…

MICHAEL JACKSON – 2020 YEAR IN REVIEW

January 1, 2021

If someone had told you at the beginning of 2020 that the year was going to be spent mostly at home and online, you’d probably have laughed it off. However, in arguably the most challenging year of our lifetime, that’s exactly what happened. Thankfully, we’re fans of the King of Pop and that means that no matter where you are in the world, you’re part of an active community that engages fans and always finds ways to celebrate no matter how challenging.

So, before we turn the page to 2021, Here is MJVibe’s top picks for Michael Jackson 2020 – Year in Review!

Thriller appears in the Top 10 vinyl sales of the decade in the United States at number 6, having sold 334,000 copies between 2010 and 2019. In 2019 alone, 88,000 copies of Thriller on vinyl were sold across the U.S.

A pair of Louboutins designed exclusively for Michael to wear during ‘This Is It’ go on display in Paris France at the Palais de la Porte Dorée as part of an exhibition focusing on the world-famous designer Christian Louboutins. The sparkly shoes offer a subtle nod to Michael’s Triumph/Off The Wall look and were displayed as if Moonwalking.

- Bad in Wembley and Dangerous Live in Bucharest are once again made available for streaming on YouTube through Michael’s official channel in an effort to encourage the ‘stay home’ order given to countries around the world.

- After 11 years at the Lyric Theater, Thriller Live closes its doors for the final time. The show had been scheduled to complete on April 26th 2020 and leave the Lyric to find a new home. However, the UK-wide lock down as a result of the pandemic saw the show close earlier than planned.

- The MJ Estate donated $300,000 to Corona Virus relief efforts in Michael’s name. Broadway Cares, Three Square Food Bank (Southern Nevada’s largest hunger-relief organization) and MusicCares each received a $100,000 donation.

The Estate release ‘Heal The World 2020’, a new short film to accompany Michael’s 1992 hit of the same name. The film focused on the Covid-19 pandemic and was produced to unite Michael’s fans virtually during an almost global lock down.

In response to the release, fans ensured ‘Healtheworld2020’ trended two weekends consecutively. As of December 2020, the short film has 4.3 million views on YouTube.

View the video here!

- As a result of the pandemic, MJ The Musical’s debut is once again delayed to September 2021. Originally planned to open in Chicago in the Summer of 2019, the launch was cancelled with a plan to head straight to Broadway in early 2020. After three rescheduled dates, the decision was made to push to September 2021.

- Michael dominates Smooth Radio’s All-Time Top 500 Songs with the most entries by a solo artist. With 20 entries, Billie Jean and Man In The Mirror placed inside the Top 10, with George Michael being the only other artist to do so. Averaging four million listeners a week, Smooth Radio removed Michael from rotation in 2019, however, this poll as voted by the public, ensured Michael returned to the station’s regular playlist. #MUTEWHO?!

- HIStory turns 25 and while fans around the world mark the album’s monumental status and timeless appeal, the Estate chose to release apparel and a badge set, which mostly amounted to, what some fans considered an overpriced, bad quality, poorly designed, late delivered collection.

Judge for yourself, Ilia Mizani and Pez Jax sat down to review some of the products here.

- Marking the 25th Anniversary of the album, the HIStory teaser is added to YouTube where it has since been viewed 1.5 million times via Michael’s official channel.

- It’s been over 50 years since the Jackson 5 performed on the Ed Sullivan show. As part of a full library upload, the performances are restored and uploaded to YouTube for future generations to enjoy. You can watch the iconic performances here!

- Sixteen11 Media Group announces the release of a new book titled, ‘The Story of HIStory’ by Pez Jax. The book charts the creation and release of HIStory and marks 25 years of the album’s release. Including interviews with many people who worked on the album and short films, Jax called upon HIStory Statue sculptor Diana Walczak to help create the cover of the book. By the end of 2020, the book was released in special gold hardback and has been shipped to over 30 countries around the world. Several of Michael’s items from the era were placed on auction through Julien’s Auctions. Taking place from the 15th – 19th of June, listings included the three Olodum outfits worn by Michael in ‘They Don’t Care About Us’, the black trench coat from Stranger In Moscow and the handwritten lyrics to D.S.

- Author Damien Shields releases ‘The Genesis of Thriller’, a special audio documentary that takes listeners into the studio to discover how the world’s biggest-selling album was made. HIGHLY Recommended!

You can listen to this insightful audio documentary here!

- SiriusXM launches ‘The Michael Jackson Channel’, a radio station playing nothing but Michael Jackson music for a strictly limited time. The station also featured a special playlist titled ‘The Now More Than Ever King of Pop Playlist’.

- UK Nationwide Radio Station ‘Smooth Radio’ host their annual ‘Top 100’ poll to find out who the number one Icon is, according to listeners. With an overwhelming number of votes, Michael comes in at Number one.

- Following global demonstrations in relation to the killing of George Floyd at the hands of police, Spike Lee teamed up with the Estate to release a new version of ‘They Don’t Care About Us’ for 2020. Mixing together both the Brazilian and Prison versions of the short film, Lee also incorporated footage from demonstrations around the world, which once again proved just how timeless Michael’s music is when used as the backdrop to current affairs.

Watch it here!

- Chinese fans celebrate Michael’s 62nd Birthday with the unveiling of 10 statues across the country. Created by MJJCN, the statues were installed in prominent locations including Nanning and Beijing and serve as a wonderful dedication to Michael.

‘Loving Neverland’ is released on YouTube as a five-hour compilation of footage and information that details Michael’s life, challenges and career in great detail. Compiled by fans Nandita Raghav and Deboleena Aich, Loving Neverland serves as a powerful reminder to what Michael experienced for anyone looking to understand who he was. You can watch it here!

- Finally, and after many years of asking, the Estate decided to do something with Michael Jackson’s Ghosts, announcing it would be free to stream on YouTube from 29th October until the 1st of November. To mark the Halloween period, which Michael ultimately rules, the mini-movie was uploaded in better quality than the previous uploads.

- Walmart release a limited edition 2x colored vinyl of the Jackson 5 greatest hits album ‘The Ultimate Collection’. Available only in the U.S, the album was issued through Universal Music.

- In what’s almost yearly fashion, more of Michael’s personal items were placed up for auction including the 2006 Japan VMAs jacket that marked Michael’s first official red-carpet appearance since his 2005 trial.

Also on auction were platinum record awards, signed items, photographs, drawings and a glove.

- Cirque-Du-Soleil announced that despite being closed for most of 2020 due to the pandemic, Michael Jackson ONE is one of five Las Vegas residency shows to receive a contract extension. Originally signed as a 10-year with five years guaranteed at the Mandalay Bay, the show has been so popular that both Cirque and Mandalay want to keep it going past its 2023 end date. The new end date on the contract extension has not been announced.

- On November 16th, the legendary Bruce Swedien passed away. Having worked with Michael as Engineer on all his Epic solo albums up to Invincible, Swedien continued working in the industry up until his passing and became an inspiration to many upcoming producers and engineers. Rest in Peace Bruce!

- Michael once again topped Forbes list of the Highest-Paid Dead Celebrity. Coming in at number one with $48 million earned, he beat Dr Seuss who came in second position with $33 million. FYI, Elvis came in 5th.

- To cap off another year of insightful interviews and important documentation, the MJCast episode 126 was a special featuring TJ Jackson. TJ speaks about growing up a Jackson, working with Michael and how the last few years of negativity have affected his family. You can listen to this deeply personal episode here!

- On Christmas Eve it was announced that Neverland ranch had officially been sold. Purchased for just $22 million by Billionaire Ron Burkle, the final price was a huge reduction from the overzealous $100 million asking price when the property was first put onto the market. However, there is hope as Burkle was a former business associate and friend to Michael, so while it may not be a ‘Michael Jackson Memorial’, it will hopefully be treated with the respect and history it deserves.

As we begin 2021 with hope and optimism, it may take a while before we can all be back with our favorite MJ friends; throwing down dance moves on his birthday and lighting candles on his anniversary. However, with the 30th Anniversary of Dangerous and the 20th Anniversary of Invincible at the tail end of the year, it’s likely we can look forward to some exciting coverage from a variety of different places and hopefully some more chart-topping achievements throughout the year.

⭐༺★༻ ༺🖤༻ ༺★༻⭐

[opiatemasses]

Professionalisation of women’s sport. Same Difference? Men’s and Women’s Professional sport

It seems in sport there are many opportunities to be involved. The industry is forever growing and there are an increasing number of roles to make a living from. It has always been the case however, whether it be inside or outside of sport, that men have been given more privileges than women. This begs the question: are men and women equal? Before any elite athlete starts their journey, they begin at grassroots level (or equivalent) of their sport, before moving through the ranks to reach the top, becoming elite athletes. They may face adversities and barriers along the way, some more than others. But why are these challenges more commonly found in women’s professional sport?  And why is it at the top, the two genders are noticeably different with regards popularity?

From the early 1900’s women have faced many barriers in and outside of sport to reach equality in society. From gaining the right to vote, to participation in official competitions, to equal participation of both genders in what was meant to be the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games.

I hope to give a useful insight as to where equality stands today and what standards are set in place, as well as an insight to what the future holds for female professional athletes.

What makes a professional in sport?

There are set characteristics that make a professional. They have set values and high levels of commitment to their sport as they have devoted their lives to get to the big stage. They seek to become a role model. You would assume there is a financial element to this also. Funding is needed for things such as kit, equipment, and transport. These are all needed for competing in sport. Just as you would need tools to be a builder.

The term ‘professional’ in a sporting context seems easy to understand. For example, in football it is a written contract with a club, and they are paid more for their football activity and the expenditure they incur. Does this mean a professional is someone who is paid more to cover expenses? However, we have all seen the vast amounts of money Premier League stars are able to earn. The equivalent of the Premier League for women (WSL) does not receive the same level of income and many players in this league are also working second jobs. The likelihood of seeing this in the men’s game, you would have to drop quite far down the pyramid to see this. When we think of ‘professional’ we usually think of someone who is elite in their sport/what they do. So why are there so many factors influencing the term between the two genders that differentiates us?

History of equality in sport

As stated, women’s professionalisation really started from the early 1900’s and since then there has been a march of progress. When we look at women’s football in the UK, we can identify the barriers they have faced historically and how far women’s professional football has come. From the early 1920’s the English FA banned women from playing on football league grounds stating ‘it is unsuitable for females and not to be encouraged’. Even after the war effort where women had to take on the roles of their opposite sex, they had the privilege of access to sport taken away from them. It took 50 years for this ban to be lifted. The opportunity and aspiring young female footballers that may have been lost due to this is countless. Perhaps that pause in history is what is delaying equality in professional women’s sport today. In 2018/19 season the FAWSL was fully professionalised. The salaries however were nowhere near the men's game, with the average salary being around £20,000. This is below the average person in the UK.

Timeline of Women’s football in the UK:

https://www.thefa.com/womens-girls-football/history

Barriers of professionalisation of Women’s sport

Stereotypes of femininity

These are a select number of the barriers that women face in the professionalisation of being an athlete. Sport is usually associated with being a male domain, meaning sports are gendered activities in that their meaning, purpose and organisation are grounded in the values and experiences of men and celebrate attributes associated with dominant forms of masculinity in society.  Wensing and Bruce, writing in 2003, describe professional male sport as constructed to be the pinnacle of sporting achievement.  Sociologist Eric Dunning also describes sport as a male preserve, a place where men can free themselves from the family and social expectations. Sport therefore is seen as a safe haven for men and a place they can release any tensions, being, and the physicality of sport which is seen as the alpha male activity.

Pay inequality

In 2019 according to Forbes top 100 highest paid athletes, only one woman made it onto the list. Serena Williams came in at 63, with the majority of her earnings through sponsorships and endorsements rather than a salary. Individual sport is what dominates the highest paid athletes in female professional sport. The pay gap in sport is commonly discussed and disputed. 30% of WSL footballers have second jobs to support their income.

This is what moves young females away from a career path in sport. When we compare this to the men's game who earn in the millions in the top leagues it supports Wensing and Bruces’ contention that sport is a male domain. 70% of winnings in sport offer equal prize money, but the 30% that doesn’t constitute a difference of millions.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/serena-williams-only-woman-forbes-2019-list-highest-paid-athletes-n1016531

Media coverage

Gaining attention is a significant problem that women face in professional sport. The majority of live sport is dominated by men. Women are underrepresented in the media and when they are, they are often represented in problematic ways. Women are commonly seen as women first and athletes second. Research by Petty and Pope, published in 2018, identified that there is a greater shift towards gender equality following an increase in coverage following the Women's World Cup in 2015. Although women are seen as outsiders there is more growth towards equality. More coverage does not however, do justice for the career path of a professional athlete who wants a salary and not to work two different jobs to support their income. Media coverage could be the start of greater growth and overcoming further barriers in inequality within sport.

Conclude

To conclude, there has been a real struggle for women to become equal to their male counterparts in sport. Through the last 100 years it could be argued that progress has been made at either a fast or slow pace to get to where we are today. But one thing we can agree on is that there has been progress. Opportunities are growing for young females to get into sport and start to choose it as a potential career path. The real problems now lie with coverage and pay equality within sport.

There has been a shift in the cultural expectation for women which has increased the opportunities for female sport and professionalisation. Moving forward where do we go? Getting rid of the stigma around femininity in sport dominated by the male genders may be a good start to increase coverage. As soon as coverage is equal to men's hopefully pay will simultaneously start to increase.

N07896594

References

Coakley, J., & Pike, E. (2014). Sports in society: Issues and controversies.

Dunning, E. (1986). Sport as a male preserve: Notes on the social sources of masculine identity and its transformations. Theory, Culture & Society, 3(1), 79-90.

Petty, K., & Pope, S. (2019). A new age for media coverage of women’s sport? An analysis of English media coverage of the 2015 FIFA Women’s World Cup. Sociology, 53(3), 486-502.

Wensing, E. H., & Bruce, T. (2003). Bending the rules: Media representations of gender during an international sporting event. International review for the sociology of sport, 38(4), 387-396.

[cindylouwho-2]

RECENT NEWS, RESOURCES & STUDIES, August 19, 2020

Welcome to my latest summary of recent ecommerce news, resources & studies including search, analytics, content marketing, social media & Etsy! This covers articles, podcasts, videos and infographics I came across since the late July report, although some may be older than that.

Please note I am taking the next week off, starting tomorrow (Aug. 19), so I might be a little slow in replying to any comments. 

TOP NEWS & ARTICLES 

USPS has become the focus of investigations due to reported mail slowdowns. Some small businesses who rely on USPS to deliver are suffering. “The longer the policy has been in effect, the worse the backlog gets.” As of today (August 18), the postmaster says they will rollback the changes until after the election in November. This is a rapidly-moving story in part due to the push for voting by mail, and should concern anyone who ships to US customers using regular mail (as opposed to couriers). Meanwhile, they plan to temporarily raise commercial rates during the holiday shopping season, but retail rates will not change. 

Ecommerce sales are still up year over year. "Before Covid-19 hit the US in March, e-commerce made up roughly 12% of retail sales in the country. That figure grew as states issued shelter-in-place orders that shut stores and kept shoppers at home, creating tailwinds for a company like Amazon. But even as states have begun to reopen, e-commerce has remained elevated, according to Bank of America data."..."The Economist used Google search traffic for hints of how lifestyles are changing and found users are still searching terms related to cooking, crafts, and exercise above pre-pandemic rates. There has been a noticeable spike in interest around such products as gardening supplies, baking flour, and Crocs." The UK is still seeing a good increase despite the ease in reduction in lockdown restrictions. The growth is slowing a bit in the US, though. 

Half of US small businesses fail in the first year (and other stats on small business). 

It’s been second quarter report season, covering company performance from April to June 2020.  Here are results for major companies involved in ecommerce in some way (comparisons are year-over-year):

Amazon US: sales up 40%

eBay: sales up 26%

Etsy: sales up $146% [click the link to read my summary]

Facebook: revenue up 11%

Google: revenue down 2%

PayPal: revenue up 22%

Pinterest: revenue up 4%; active users up 39%

Shopify: revenue up 97%

Walmart [2nd quarter ran May to July]: ecommerce sales up 97%, same-store sales up 9.3%

ETSY NEWS 

Admin are now posting a monthly update thread, in case you fear you have missed anything. This is how they chose to announce that non-seller accounts can no longer post in the forum. Since those account owners can still read the forum, that doesn’t mean you can call out your customers now. 

Sadly, there wasn’t much media coverage of Etsy’s nearly-annual billing screw up, but this one did get some attention. 

Etsy continues to get good media coverage for masks, including masks for your dolls. They also apparently got a decent slice of Google ranking for various pandemic-related searches in May [scroll down to the “Protection and Prevention” section]. 

However, Etsy is getting some bad press (along with Amazon), for allowing QAnon merchandise, because “the FBI has warned of the movement's potential to incite domestic terrorism.” Etsy replied to a request for comment saying that “that product listings associated with certain movements are allowed as long as they don't violate the company's seller or prohibited items policies, which ban items that promote hate or that could incite violence. The company said it is continually reviewing items on the site and could remove items in the future if they're found to violate Etsy's policies.”

More search trends on Etsy, this time kids’ items. I love how they think tie-dye was a ‘90s thing and not a ‘60-70s thing LOL. “a 318% increase in searches for kids tie-dye items...71% increase in searches for dinosaur wall art or decor*, and a 37% increase in searches for school of fish items….we’ve seen kid-friendly crafts spike in popularity, with searches for DIY kits for kids up 336%.”

Also, the holiday trends guide is out. “With the holidays approaching, and most shopping happening online, more shoppers will be looking for your help to make the season feel special.” The report is lengthy, covering Halloween to New Year’s, and most listing categories, while pointing out the possible pandemic changes to the usual trends. There is also an accompanying podcast with transcript. 

Speaking of the holiday season, here are Etsy’s tips for shops. Note that it is a bit late, as businesses need to have their holiday items posted no later than July if they want to be eligible for most fall media coverage. Almost every point refers to an Etsy tool or feature, some of them costing you money, so use this as a very broad guideline & be careful to read between the lines. 

They are still rolling out Etsy Payments to more countries: Morocco & Israel are the most recent. Note that Etsy Payments is not yet compulsory in these new countries. 

Etsy Ads once again has graphs. Do you find them useful? (I haven’t run ads at all this year, so I can’t check.)

Sendle is the latest shipping company to have a label integration with Etsy shops. 

Etsy asked US sellers to lobby their reps for more support for small business and other initiatives in the pandemic aid package.

SEO: GOOGLE & OTHER SEARCH ENGINES 

Google has stated that content on tabs is indexed and contributes to ranking as if it were on the page instead, but yet another test demonstrates that tabs may limit you. 

Due to the pandemic, Google has delayed finalizing mobile-first indexing until March 2021. (They originally announced it would be finished this September.) That means you have more time to update your website’s mobile version, ideally with responsive design. 

Site speed does matter to SEO, and Google is now asking some searchers how fast certain sites loaded for them. 

User comments on your products, blog posts and website can help you improve your SEO. The article suggests ways of getting that feedback, and ways to use it. [I’ve even had buyers give me new keywords to describe my items, in their messages and reviews.]

Getting links back to your site is important to SEO, but don’t annoy people while doing it. [sort of humour & sort of a rant, but does give some useful background on why backlinks matter.] Internal links also matter. 

There are some special tricks for food/recipe SEO, including structured data and even a WordPress plugin. 

Another WordPress plugin: submit any new or updated pages to Bing to be automatically re/indexed.

Do your keyword research before setting up your website’s sections and sub-sections, as they should serve the buyer experience, not your perception of it. Same with choosing which pages link to each other. 

SEOs are still trying to work out what happened with recent Google algorithm changes. Search Engine Journal claims that the May update was at least in part about demoting sites that had out-of-date or inaccurate information, so they suggest getting rid of the bad content on your site, or at least updating it. “Content pruning” has some advocates, but I wouldn’t worry about investing tons of time in this unless you have tons of time to spend. Just get rid of the blog posts that were wildly wrong, and the out-of-date filler. If you have a lot of sold out products, redirect those to relevant active pages. 

Meanwhile, a “glitch” on August 10 led people to think there was a massive Google algorithm update happening, but it all got fixed in less than a day. 

If you are behind on Google search news, here is a 7 minute video [with time stamped subtopics & resources links listed below], direct from Google. 

(CONTENT) MARKETING & SOCIAL MEDIA (includes blogging & emails) 

It’s tough to get started in social media if you don’t know the terminology, so here’s a list of the basic definitions you can consult if you get lost when reading.  

Don’t know how to blog? There are formulas you can use; here are eight options, nicely laid out, with downloadable templates. Don’t forget to figure out what your audience wants to read. And make sure you avoid these common blogging mistakes. 

If you have an email list but do not know how to take advantage of all the bells & whistles the companies (MailChimp, Constant Contact etc.) offer you, here are 4 ways to segment your lists. You can then send different offers or newsletters to different segments. 

You can optimize your social posts for people with visual impairments; excellent tips here. 

By the time you read this, the TikTok mess will likely have changed again, but here is an article on Trump’s order to prohibit US companies from doing business with TikTok owner ByteDance if the platform is not sold by September 15. 

Instagram has released its TikTok challenger, Reels, in more countries. 

Instagram is now offering a fundraising option, although it is a slow launch with some beta testing in the US, UK & Ireland to start. 

Here are step-by-step instructions on setting up your “Shop on Instagram.”

Pinterest says that searches around self-care & wellness have spiked during the pandemic lockdowns. “Pinterest has recently seen the highest searches ever around mental wellness ideas including meditation (+44%), gratitude (+60%) and positivity (+42%) that jumped from February to May….Pinterest says that searches for ‘starting a new business’ are up 35% on average, as are searches for ‘future life goals’ (2x), ‘life bucket list’ (+65%), ‘family goals future’ (+30%) and ‘future house goals’ (+78%).” There were also some searches clearly about spending more time at home: “Productive morning routine (up 6x), Exercise routine at home (up 12x), Self care night routine (up 7x)”

LinkedIn has a new algorithm; here’s how to make it work for you. [Many of these tips also apply to social media in general.]

Spotify is now doing “video podcasts”. Apparently a lot of their podcasters already did a video version of the Spotify podcasts, but had to publish it elsewhere up until now. 

Twitter now admits it is considering offering subscriptions to shore up its revenue numbers. “Shares of Twitter rose 4% in early trading Thursday following the earnings results....Twitter's growth plans are under close scrutiny as many advertisers pull back due to the pandemic. On Thursday, Twitter reported second-quarter ad revenues of $562 million, a 23% decrease compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has also been hit by advertisers participating in an ad boycott of social media, linked to the nationwide racial justice protests.” Also, the recent hack is not helping them. 

That said, it is still possible to market using Twitter, and here are some of the basics. 

YouTube is no longer sending email updates when a channel you follow posts new content. 

ONLINE ADVERTISING (SEARCH ENGINES, SOCIAL MEDIA, & OTHERS) 

Ad spend has increased again as lockdowns end, in some cases beating last year by a decent margin. 

The Buy on Google program is ending its commission fees. Participants will also be able to integrate their PayPal and/or Shopify payment options. As often is the case, they are starting with the US first, but plan on rolling it out to more countries in the future. There are more details here, and a review here (with some of the drawbacks). 

Google Product Ads are now showing the item’s “material” on the listing card (before you click). If you are doing your own feed for your website, you may have the ability to add the attributes needed for the details to show up.  

If you find Google Ads too expensive, consider buying search ads on Bing. 

eBay is experimenting with showing ads mixed in with unpaid listings; placement would depend on the same algorithm. 

Here’s a new guide to Facebook Ads [videos & text]

STATS, DATA, OTHER TRACKING 

Bing has launched a new version of Webmaster Tools. 

There are ways to reduce the amount of traffic that Google Analytics designates as “direct traffic”; here are 15 of them. 

Currently in closed beta testing, the Google Search Console now has an “Insights” function, just like Google Analytics. I’ve found the GA one useful for telling me things I don’t always look at, so crossing my fingers that they release this to everyone soon. 

 ECOMMERCE NEWS, IDEAS, TRENDS 

Shopify helped many businesses stay open during pandemic lockdowns, giving it the boost to start competing with the likes of Amazon in ecommerce. “Shopify merchants that had previously or entirely relied on brick-and-mortar sales would later report they were able revive nearly 95% of that revenue online.”

eBay started rolling out its Managed Payments system to more sellers worldwide on July 20th. Things seem to be going slowly, with some confusion. 

But eBay is also having a 25th anniversary party for sellers on September 25th; don’t forget to register. 

Walmart is still delaying its new subscription model to challenge Amazon Prime, Walmart+. 

Amazon in the UK has launched a “Face mask store” part of the website. I haven’t seen this on other versions of Amazon. They’ve also increased some fees for some UK sellers, based on the new UK digital tax. And they are launching a site & presence in Sweden. 

The Competition Bureau of Canada has launched an investigation of Amazon’s treatment of third-party sellers. “The bureau is asking any person or business that has conducted sales via Amazon.ca to contact them if they have any insights into the issues it is investigating.“

Amazon Prime Day has been postponed to later dates this year, starting with India on August 6-7. The remaining countries will apparently be announced soon. 

If you use WooCommerce, here are a bunch of free plugins, with brief descriptions. 

BUSINESS & CONSUMER STUDIES, STATS & REPORTS; SOCIOLOGY & PSYCHOLOGY, CUSTOMER SERVICE 

Buyers do not all make purchase decisions the same way; Google uses its massive collection of data and some new studies to provide some examples. “Worldwide, search interest for “best” has far outpaced search interest for “cheap.”

It’s cheaper to keep repeat buyers than it is to find new ones; here are 16 ways to do that. One of my favourites is ““proactively providing information on how to avoid problems or get more out of your product” creates a 32% average lift to repurchase or recommend.”

It seems that researchers can never produce enough marketing guides on Gen Z and millennials. 

MISCELLANEOUS (including humour) 

I see a lot of new sellers, and some older sellers, confused about the idea of a business plan. HubSpot not only explains them, but also provides a downloadable template. 

If you are thinking of changing careers, or just want to add skills to better run your current business, Google has many different courses, some of which they offer for free. 

There are ways you can increase your productivity without (usually) working more hours. “A study published by John Pencavel of Standford University found that how much employees get done takes a sharp drop after 50 hours of work in a week, and even more drastically after 55 hours. The study found that employees working 70 hours per week actually produce nothing more in those extra 15 hours...taking a power nap in the middle of the day can help you process new information and even learn new skills.”

[livertransplantindelhii]

Liver transplant cost in india - Liver Helpline India

Tags = Liver Transplantation In India, Liver Transplant in Delhi, Liver transplant cost in india, Best liver transplant surgeon in india

Each organ of the body plays it’s unique role in the maintenance and survival of the body. Liver helps in the detoxification, produces bio chemicals that aid digestion and synthesises proteins, decomposes red blood cells, regulates glycogen storage and also produces hormones.If there is a liver failure, dialysis of the liver is done to help it function properly. But this is not a long term solution. Till the time an artificial liver is developed which can work like the normal liver, the only solution to this condition is Liver Transplantation.

Liver Transplant Surgery’s cost In India

Liver transplant is a rare and customised surgery. The type of liver transplant surgery, choice of room, duration of hospitalization and course of treatment, current medical condition of the patient, medical tests and reports etc. are factors that determine the cost.On an average, a Liver transplant surgery in India, costs USD 29,000 in the best hospitals. This cost may vary with an increase or decrease of 5%.India offers an advantage in terms of price, as the same surgery in US, Singapore, UK or Thailand may cost three times more. The price benefit, added with world class infrastructure, quality of care, hospitality and success rate of the liver transplant surgery is at par with global standards. Liver Helpline India, has the best infrastructure and the best liver transplant surgeons in delhi, and offers all the above mentioned benefits, making it, the best hospital for liver transplant surgery in India.

What is a liver transplant surgery?

In a liver transplant, the damaged liver is removed through a surgery, and replaced with another liver from a donor. The donor can be either someone who has just passed away or can also be a living, healthy person.The living donor is not harmed, when a portion of his liver is removed. If it is a perfect match, then the receiver also benefits, if not, then it is harmful for the receiver.There are lots of people all over the world, suffering from liver damage and are waiting for their liver transplant surgery.The availability of a liver is much less than the demand for it. Hence, is is an option only for those who are at a critical stage, and may not survive without the transplant.Liver Helpline India, has performed thousands of successful Liver transplant surgeries in India. It’s team of best liver transplant surgeons in Delhi, who have achieved and an unparalleled success rate in liver transplantation surgery, makes Liver Helpline India, the first choice for getting a liver transplant surgery in India.

An overview of the Liver Transplant Surgery in India:

It has been more than a decade since the first liver transplant surgery in India, which was done with a huge success in the year 1998.The first liver transplant surgery, was done for a child, whose father donated 30% of his liver. since then, India hasn’t looked back, and that child is now a Liver transplant surgeon.People from the neighbouring countries as well as from the world over, come for their Liver Transplants in India. Every year, more than 100 liver transplant are done in India.30 – 40% of all liver transplant surgery is for healthcare travellers, who have come from all across the globe, to get a successful liver transplant in india, with world class facilities at an extremely reasonable price.Liver transplant is the last ray of hope, for those braving liver cancer or facing end stage liver failure. Depending on the severity of the condition, some recipients may receive the liver earlier while others may have to wait for several weeks or months.Depending on the underlying cause of the damage, the rapidity at which liver failure can occur, varies anywhere between a few weeks to a few months or years.

Why is a Liver transplant Important?

Dialysis can help with the short term liver damage, but liver transplant is the only solution in case of a liver failure. Following liver conditions are a common cause for a liver transplant:

Scarring of the liver, which may be caused by certain diseases, which ultimately leads to the hardening of the liver, followed by liver failure

Viral Hepatitis infection, which may cause the liver to swell and finally lead to liver failure

Liver cancer may also be cured with a liver transplant surgery

Alcohol addiction may cause irrepairable liver damage which can only be cured by a liver transplant

Family history or Genetic reasons for liver disease

Liver diseases due to birth defects

Have you been recommended a liver transplant? How to know if you are eligible for a liver transplant?

Any transplant, carried out without appropriate tests and a correct diagnosis from a liver transplant surgeon, may put the patient’s life at risk. Share the following information when you meet your surgeon for your liver transplant

Medical history, if any

Any medications being taken currently

Any addiction to alcohol

Presence of any infection other than the one in the liver

All information should be shared with your doctor so that there is complete transparency between the two of you. You should also clear any doubts you may have

What are my chances of survival after the liver transplant surgery

What are the risks after the surgery? Will they create any problems at a later stage

Who can be my donor? if i do not have a live donor, is it ok to go for the surgery with a deceased donor

How much will the treatment cost me

In case of Liver Cancer, will it stop the cancer from spreading

Consider going for the liver transplant surgery only after you clarity and all your doubts have been answered by your doctor. It is advisable to not delay the process of the liver transplant surgery, if your doctor feels it is urgently required.Process of Liver transplant surgery in India

Evaluation – This is the first phase of the treatment, is carried out by the surgeon and a hepatologist (liver transplant specialist). This process may be a full day’s activity, you need to be in an empty stomach, and are not allowed any food or drink post midnight before the day of the appointment for liver transplant evaluation

Transplant List – On clearing the evaluation process, the name is put on the transplant list, and now you will need to wait, till the availability of a liver from a donor. You will get a call from the hospital, once a donor is available, and your liver transplant surgery will be scheduled.

Transplantation Procedure – Liver transplant surgery takes approximately 5-6 hours, depending on the use of technology, technique, surgeon’s experience and the severity of the liver damage. General anaesthesia is administered to carry out the procedure. To allow uninterrupted oxygen supply, a tube is inserted into the food pipe. The entire process of the liver transplant surgery, which includes pre-preparation, surgery, and post-surgical process may take anywhere between 6 – 12 hours.

Recovery – Recovery for most liver transplant patients, happen in the ICU. The anaesthesia’s effect may last for a few hours or a few days. The patient’s condition is regularly monitored till they get their strength back. The liver transplant surgery may require upto two weeks of hospitalization or more. The body may take 2-3 months to feel normal and function normally. Post recovery, it takes approximately 6 months to get back to your normal routines at home and in office. But it is important to go for a diagnosis, before getting back to your previous normal schedule or taking up any new activity. Care should be taken to avoid any risks or infection

Medical Tourism Guide for Liver transplant in India

A foreign citizen, wanting to undergo a liver transplant surgery in india, may need the assistance of a medical tourism company in India. Denesa Health is one of the best service providers which gives a reliable and best possible guidance to the patient. Denesa Health assists you with the following:

Visa for medical tourism in India

Information on who is the best liver transplant surgeon in india

Information on which is the best hospital for liver transplant surgery in india

Transport assistance from airport to hospital and vice versa

Booking appointments with the liver transplant surgeon and connecting for online assistance

Guiding you with the the best treatment cost for liver transplant surgery in india

Making arrangements for your stay (before, during and also post surgery)

Scheduling a revisit for you, if needed

Extending your visa if the course of treatment takes longer than usual

An organ transplant surgery is mentally, emotionally and physically demanding. The right doctor, hospital and it’s hospitality helps minimize your stress. Denesa Health takes every step possible to give you a convenient and a comfortable stay.Liver transplant hospitals in india are at par with global standards, when it comes to infrastucture, medical techniques, treatment procedures, and experience and expertise of the liver transplant surgeons. So you can get a fresh lease of life and live it to the fullest

Some Frequently asked questions on liver transplant

1. What is the cost of liver transplant surgery in India?

India provides successful liver transplant surgery with state of the art infrastructure and expertise at a very reasonable price range of USD 29000 – 35000, depending on the medical condition2. Which is the best liver transplant hospital in Delhi ?

Liver Helpline India, is considered the best hospital for liver transplant in Delhi. It has a high success rate of liver transplant, best liver transplant surgeons in Delhi and the best facilities for medical travellers.3. What is the success rate in liver transplant surgery by the best hospitals in india?

Liver Helpline India has a success rate of more than 98%, with rarely any failed liver transplant surgery.4. Can international patients get a donor in india?

No, The donor has to be a relative. It is illegal for international patients to undergo a liver transplant process if the donor is not a blood relative.5. Who can donate liver for a liver transplantation surgery in india?

Any family member, who is below 65 years of age, and has the same blood group, can donate their liver for the liver transplant surgery in India.

[whenitsdarkweilluminate]

Gothenburg 1985

Host: Sweden Participants: 19 Voting method: 12-point system (juries only) Winner: Bobbysocks! - La Det Swinge Country: Norway Language: Norwegian Points: 123 (56.9% of highest score possible) General Overview: The 1985 contest is presented by the iconic Lill Lindfors, who injects Swedish humour into the show. She also has a “wardrobe malfunction”, where the bottom portion of her dress rips off, but she reveals a hidden second dress. I'm glad we're moving past the formal hosts of the older Eurovision years. Lill actually represented Sweden in 1966 as part of a duet. And she aptly opens the show by breaking into song. She also never leaves her stool after introducing each entry, so she's always sitting in the background of every performance, watching it with us. I find that so amusing. 1985 is the 30th edition of Eurovision. Naturally the guest of honour is the original winner, Lys Assia. The postcards emphasize that Eurovision is a song contest by only including the songwriters and composers. This year's stage design looks roomy, and it encompasses neon lights, which create an 80′s downtown nightlife aesthetic. The interval involves two guys on stage vigorously playing folk music on acoustic guitars, with scenery images interspersed.  Greece and Israel return, while the Netherlands and Yugoslavia miss out due to national observances. Also noteworthy: 13 artists return from previous contests in some form or another. As of 1985, the scoreboard now displays the position as well as the points. Also, I've noticed the audience has become noticeably more reactive to the vote reveal. Probably because the host country and their Nordic neighbour are two huge favourites in '85. But the result is a tense one. Germany lead for most of the process, while Norway lagged behind. However, after the UK voted only 3 points separated Germany/Sweden/Norway. Then Switzerland gave 0 points to Germany and pushed Sweden into the lead. Next, Sweden “shockingly” gave their 12 points to Norway. And Norway held a comfortable lead for the 3 remaining calls. Also, there's three songs involving children this year.

Ireland: Maria Christian - Wait Until the Weekend Comes So Maria's lover is about to dump her, but she tries to delay it, hoping the upcoming weekend (and summer) will change their mind. The lyrics are pretty simple and straightforward. The intro/verses have an innocent springtime vibe, while the “hoooold me now” chorus stands out, and she ends on a high note. But the song is very average, plain, inoffensive, and safe in all aspects. That trumpet solo doesn't do much either. Finland: Sonja Lumme - Eläköön elämä Finland delivers some kick-ass attitude, thanks to the electric guitars and Sonja's commanding vocals. The verses are restless, and I love when the synths appear midway. Then the chorus is a burst of adrenaline, where Sonja raising her fist is very effective; as is the mid-chorus clapping (with how the orchestra guides it and stops). And I love how the guitar leads into that chorus. The lyrics comment on light pollution; however this person gives Sonja hope, as she recalls her grandfather's advice. Cyprus: Lia Vissi - To katalava arga This is such a lifeless ballad. The verses are calming, but in a boring way, and the chorus vocal and instrumental just sounds blah and ugly. The guitar itches are the only thing catching my attention. In the lyrics, Lia “realized too late” that she had committed to a relationship that wasn't going to last. Now she feels purposeless and lonely, and secretly hopes they return. Denmark: Hot Eyes - Sku' du spørg' fra no'en? Hot Eyes return from last year, except Søren's daughter joins them on stage this time. She grabs some garments and puts them on; while her dad arrives later on. She also sneaks in between her “parents”. This staging is cringe. The song is cute, cheerful and interactive. There's a bouncy beat, some old-timey piano bits, a call-and-response with the kid, and the “parents” telling the kid “no”. But the melody is kinda thin and not that catchy. The intro is alright though. In the lyrics, Kirsten spots her childhood friend in the club. When he asks her to dance, she responds with an inside joke.  Spain: Paloma San Basilio - La fiesta terminó I'm shocked this didn't make top 10. Paloma's belting is so powerful in the chorus. I love when her voice expands and contracts. The verses feel personal. And her performance brings out the song's emotions. I also like the guitar intro and chorus stumbles. In the lyrics, she asks why her ex has showed up again, since she's already moved on. She clarifies she didn't mean to call them “love”. And she's basically begging them to stop trying. France: Roger Bens - Femme dans ses rêves aussi This dark, tragic, brooding atmosphere is alluring, especially with the extensive-sounding violins, and the darkly lit stage really complements it. Meanwhile, Roger agonizingly screams several times. He sounds really concerned for women's well-being. The lyrics validate being a woman, and the characteristics they possess. The chorus drums switch-up the mood, but the “femme...” hooks had to grow on me. Turkey: MFÖ - Didai didai dai Turkey brings the tropical sounds with this relaxed, sunny, joyful song about catching feelings. The “oh oh whoa oh; didai didai dai” hooks are catchy, and I like how the second verse changes things up with the clapping. The tropical guitar and the mini-blast transitions are also highlights. But the last minute feels like filler. Too many instrumental breaks, bridges, choruses, and a clapping breakdown. The trio has fun on stage at least, with their robotic “dad dancing”. Belgium: Linda Lepomme - Laat me nu gaan Belgium finishes dead last in the year before they win. Linda was a last minute replacement anyways. Mireille Capelle was originally selected, but BRT wouldn't approve the lyricist she wanted. The Walloon broadcaster must've had enough. But yeah, this is an excruciatingly boring ballad. Linda is on the verge of tears, but it's too slow and depressing for me. The sports horn intro, the “country” guitars, and the flutes can only do so much. The chorus just sounds “off”. In the lyrics, Linda vents to her lover about his controlling behaviour. She begs him to let her go, but she backtracks at the end. Portugal: Adelaide - Penso em ti, eu sei I like the contrast between the gentle verse instrumental and the huge, powerful vocals in the chorus. Adelaide's intense belting is impactful. She also ends on a very long note. While the verses use high-pitched piano riffs, guitar itches, and subtle whispering from the backing. In the lyrics, she prepares to leave her lover in the morning. Still, it's not as good as Spain, which is a similar entry. Germany: Wind - Für alle The first of Wind's 3 appearances. I usually dislike peace anthems. This big singalong chorus that makes everyone join hands can get tedious. But the melody and harmonies in the verses are so strong, the lyrics aren't too cheesy or idealistic, and Wind seem earnest. It's anthemic and uplifting. There's also an ominous horns/violins/snapping intro and the verses use this inconsistent snap-splash beat. The song is dedicated to those who remain hopeful about the future of the world; while acknowledging that thoughts can often revert to negative, and change requires sacrifices. Israel: Izhar Cohen - Olé, Olé The winner of 1978 returns, as Israel sends another “Hora”/“Hi”-type song. But I don't mind since the chorus is INSANELY catchy - from the “OLE OLE” shouts, to the rapid 4 claps, to the dramatic pounding stops. The intro also creates hype. The verse instrumental is fidgety, including stray drum hits and twinkles. The strings add something. And the “na na na na” outro is a bonus. The song is like an Israeli party. But oof at that off-key backing singer. The choreo is slick as well, while the 5 dancers wear infectious smiles. The lyrics describe the beautiful sky and bringing people together. Italy: Al Bano & Romina Power - Magic Oh Magic The (then-)married couple returns from 1976. Romina's vocals are weak in the opening verse, but things improve once Al enters. There's an overwhelming chorus melody, an English hook, and a peaceful, dreamy vibe. While the backing singers wear the Italian flag colours, just like last year. And the soft bridge is sweet I guess. But Al and Romina's voices don't really mesh for me. And the song is kinda whatever. In the lyrics, they keep saying “ciao” to each other, as they're departing. But the strange, slightly Italian music makes them fantasize of reuniting I guess? Norway: Bobbysocks! - La det swinge (winner review below) United Kingdom: Vikki - Love Is… This is as inoffensive as Ireland, but the lyrics tell a story, and Vikki sounds caring. It's about the complexities of dating. How one person makes advances, while the other cautiously hesitates because of stranger danger. Vikki encourages taking that chance. The fidgeting guitar reminds me of “Edge of Seventeen”, but without the spunk. The pre-chorus is catchy (with the bell shakes and guitar), the backing boosts the chorus, and the verses sound pleasant. Meanwhile, Vikki sits on a chair and later sideways steps. Switzerland: Mariella Farré & Pino Gasparini - Piano, piano Those “piano, piano *clap-clap-horn pip*” hooks are catchy, but the verses are kinda boring, and Mariella looks uncomfortable when Pino sings to her. Still, the drum slap + string rise intro and the horn jab pre-chorus escalate things nicely. And I like when they start at the telephone pole. In the lyrics, Pino decides to take this new relationship slowly, but Mariella objects.  Sweden: Kikki Danielsson - Bra vibrationer Lill makes sure to clarify what the title actually means. This is textbook Swedish pop. It's a jubilant, energetic, lively song; featuring two engaging backing dancers. The intro is joyous. The verses insert some guitar roars. The pre-chorus intensification is great, culminating in the triple stomp + pause. And the chorus flows effortlessly. In the lyrics, Kikki meets a new crush who gives her the “good vibrations” that the previous ones didn't. She's fallen for them quickly, and is aware this could be a problem, but she can't help it. Austria: Gary Lux - Kinder dieser Welt The last Austria entry I'll enjoy for a while. The melody is super strong, the song relaxingly drifts like a cloud, and Gary's performance feels professional. There's also some “do do do”s and steel drums. The lyrics are... okay. Gary asks to provide what third world citizens need (rain for the harvest, courage for the defenceless, home for the refugees). And to bring happiness to the children. The backing also say “children” in various languages. Luxembourg: Margo, Franck Olivier, Diane Solomon, Ireen Sheer, Chris & Malcolm Roberts - Children, Kinder, Enfants I can't stop laughing at how bad this is. It's another song about children, where the lyrics praise their imaginative minds. But it sounds like music that was actually made for infants. It's also very monotonous. That “na na na na... na na na na...” nursery rhyme melody spins like a merry-go-round. And once the three different couples start singing over each other, I'm just... confused. Also ugh at when they turn around one at a time. And playing patty-cake at the start. Greece: Takis Biniaris - Miazoume This is a fairly boring and old-fashioned ballad from Greece. Although Takis brings good vocals and stage presence. The verses have these little sounds poking through, while the chorus has a couple drum stumbles. But it's not enough. The backing “ahhhh” in the chorus is like white noise. The lyrics say we'll always be separated by our differences, but certain moments unite us. We're all the same.  The Winner: One of the worst performing countries achieves their first victory! Seriously, Norway had an abysmal track record before 1985, including SIX last place finishes, and hardly any top tens after the black-and-white era. It probably didn't help that they kept sending returning artists. Well actually, both members of Bobbysocks! are returning artists as well. So naturally, Norway finally wins with a song that sounds more like a Swedish entry. In fact, “La Det Swinge” sounds pretty similar to Sweden's own entry from this very same year. Although there is a connection with the artists - Elisabeth Andreassen represented Sweden in 1982 with Kikki Danielsson, under the name Chips. AKA the very same Kikki Danielsson whose song I just reviewed in this write-up. Meanwhile, Hanne Krogh represented Norway in 1971. And this won't be the last time either Elisabeth or Hanne compete in Eurovision. ALSO, “La Det Swinge” was written by the same guy who composed Norway's next winner. “La Det Swinge” is camp, but their performance is so much fun. Elisabeth and Hanne look like they're having the time of their lives. The '80s nightclub staging aesthetic is perfect. The duo makes use of the open stage too. The purple glitter jackets are memorable. And the air punches when the instrumental stops is really effective. Moreover, the “OHHH HIII HO” hook is so infectious. I love how the propelling bass beat. And there's plenty of saxophone! “La Det Swinge” circumvents the language rule by making the chorus sound like it's English, when it actually isn't. Lyrically, the song is about losing yourself in the music. The energetic, steady flow of the melody and instrumentation allows Bobbysocks! to do just that. Verdict: "S” tier. I unabashedly love this. My points go to.... 01. Finland: Sonja Lumme - Eläköön elämä 02. Norway: Bobbysocks! - La det swinge 03. Israel: Izhar Cohen - Olé, Olé 04. Spain: Paloma San Basilio - La fiesta terminó 05. France: Roger Bens - Femme dans ses rêves aussi 06. Austria: Gary Lux - Kinder dieser Welt 07. Sweden: Kikki Danielsson - Bra vibrationer 08. Germany: Wind - Für alle 09. Portugal: Adelaide - Penso em ti, eu sei 10. United Kingdom: Vikki - Love Is... 11. Turkey: MFÖ - Didai didai dai 12. Switzerland: Mariella Farré & Pino Gasparini - Piano, piano 13. Ireland: Maria Christian - Wait Until the Weekend Comes 14. Italy: Al Bano & Romina Power - Magic Oh Magic 15. Greece: Takis Biniaris - Miazoume 16. Denmark: Hot Eyes - Sku' du spørg' fra no'en? 17. Cyprus: Lia Vissi - To katalava arga 18. Belgium: Linda Lepomme - Laat me nu gaan 19. Luxembourg: Margo, Franck Olivier, Diane Solomon, Ireen Sheer, Chris & Malcolm Roberts - Children, Kinder, Enfants

[nicepicsworld]

What the 2009 swine flu pandemic can tell us about the future of COVID-19

The first documented case of COVID-19 is thought to have appeared on December 1 2019 in Wuhan, China. Four months later, the world is in the middle of a pandemic with little idea of what comes next. Yet this is not the first pandemic to occur in recent years. On March 17 2009, the first case of a novel H1N1 influenza virus infection, also known as swine flu, was documented in Mexico. It rapidly spread throughout Mexico and the US and was declared a full pandemic by the WHO on June 11 2009. Swine flu circulated around the world in two waves until August 10 2010, when the WHO officially declared the pandemic over. By comparing the coronavirus pandemic with the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic and looking at modern forecast models, we might be able to better assess what to expect over the coming weeks to months. As of March 22, we are in week 16 of the COVID-19 pandemic, roughly equivalent to July 8 2009 of the H1N1 pandemic. These two points in time offer a useful comparison as the number of cases in both the US and UK were at nearly identical levels in both pandemics. The comparison highlights four important differences. First, with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic beginning in North America, the US had the highest number of cases at week 16. This contrasts with the COVID-19 pandemic with the highest number of cases reflecting the virus’s origins in China. 2009 H1N1 data as of July 6 2009 was obtained from: https://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_07_06/en/. Current COVID-19 data was obtained on March 22 2020 from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. Jeremy Rossman Second, there are already over three times as many cases of COVID-19 as there were pandemic H1N1 cases in the same time period. This probably reflects the R0 or replication number of the virus – this refers to how many people, on average, an infected person will spread the virus to. For the 2009 H1N1 virus it was estimated to be 1.5, whereas COVID-19 is estimated to be between 2.38 and 3.28. Third, the number of fatalities for COVID-19 is far greater than that seen with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. This reflects a case-fatality rate or CFR – the proportion of deaths compared with the total number of people diagnosed – of 2.3% for COVID-19 compared to the estimated 0.048% CFR for 2009 H1N1 in the US. The rate of hospitalization also differs with each virus: for COVID-19 an estimated 14% of cases will require hospitalization, much higher than the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Finally, the rate of COVID-19 fatalities is increasing almost twice as fast as was seen at this time for the 2009 H1N1 virus. The H1N1 pandemic lasted nearly 16 months and by the end of the pandemic on August 10 2010 the WHO determined that there had been 6,724,149 confirmed cases and 18,449 confirmed deaths over 214 countries. Week 16 of the H1N1 pandemic reflects only 1.4% of what would be the total number of cases one year later. If we experience the same trend with COVID-19, we would have 23,862,575 cases in the beginning of May 2021. With an estimated case fatality rate of 2.3%, that would give 548,839 fatalities worldwide. With both pandemics, there are many mild cases that often go undetected and unconfirmed. For the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic this has been retrospectively examined and it was estimated that in the US there were 61,000,000 cases, 274,000 hospitalizations and 12,470 deaths. This means that the number of confirmed 2009 H1N1 cases was only 0.056% of the actual number of cases and would give a revised global fatality rate of 0.021%. For COVID-19, recent reports from China suggest confirmed cases represent only 14% of the total number of cases. If so, there would be 578,957 cases in China, giving a fatality rate of 0.56 – half the 1.17% currently seen in South Korea. Even using that lower rate, there could be still 133,630 fatalities caused by COVID-19. Given that we have almost reached the same level of cumulative deaths as seen during the whole 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will be far greater than that experienced in 2009-10.

Epidemic modeling

As the current pandemic is already surpassing the number of fatalities seen in 2009, we can expand our predictive analysis by modeling the spread of COVID-19 using recent epidemiological data from China. The graph below shows the predicted number of cases (in pink) and cumulative fatalities (in blue) in the US for each day over the coming year, if no containment measures are taken.

SEIR model was created at http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html. Date of first case was set as 20 Jan: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191 and intervention set as day 63 (22 March). R0, incubation and infectious period were based on: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.long. CFR was based on: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.long. All other values were as recently described: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56. Jeremy Rossman using Gabriel Goh’s Epidemic Calculator Even with the conservative estimate of a 0.56% case fatality rate and a 2.38 R0, COVID-19 would result in over 1.6 million fatalities in the US and 330,000 in the UK within one year. The peak hospitalization burden of 10.8 million people in the US would also overwhelm the healthcare infrastructure, significantly increasing the effective fatality rate for both COVID-19 cases as well as other accidents and illnesses that require hospitalization. Thankfully, many countries have begun implementing strategies to combat the spread of the virus, so this epidemic prediction has already been prevented. But in order to stop the spread of the virus, these strategies need to reduce the R0 below 1 (the effective R0 value over time is called Rt). In China, the initial containment effort was estimated to reduce the R0 of 2.38 to a Rt of 1.36. Thanks to tighter travel and movement restrictions, it later fell to 0.98. These numbers include both confirmed cases and the estimated unconfirmed mild and asymptomatic cases. If examining only the impact on the most severe and confirmed cases, the later interventions decreased Rt to 0.36. Using this number as a comparison, we can now estimate the impact of currently implemented intervention strategies in relation to interventions in China over a period of one year from the first case – see below:

Data derived from SEIR model: at http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html. Jeremy Rossman As we can see, reducing Rt to 1.36 still results in over 155 million cases in the US and 32 million cases in the UK. That’s nearly a million fatalities in the US and over 178,000 fatalities in the UK. However, if our current intervention strategies reduce the rate to 0.98, as was done in China, this would dramatically reduce the number of cases, deaths and peak hospitalizations, while also spreading the peak of infection over a longer duration of time. The graph below shows the predicted number of cases and cumulative fatalities in the US for each day over the coming year, if the current interventions reduce Rt to 0.98. Note that the scale on this graph is in thousands of cases instead of millions of cases as seen above with no intervention taken.

Created using the SEIR model at: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html with intervention at day 63 reducing Rt to 0.98. Jeremy Rossman using Gabriel Goh’s Epidemic Calculator If we can further reduce Rt to 0.36, we shorten the duration of the outbreak and dramatically reduce cases, hospitalizations and fatalities. But this dramatic reduction may not be possible when factoring in the number of asymptomatic cases seen in China. Also, each one of these scenarios depends on our already implemented interventions successfully reducing Rt to the indicated value. But the restrictions on travel and personal mobility that China imposed were far greater than those currently in use by the US and the UK. China also employed widespread testing and isolation of even mild cases, which probably played a significant role in reducing Rt. So the interventions in use in the US and UK may lead to a smaller reduction of Rt, perhaps closer to 1.38, as seen early in the China outbreak. What is clear is that the later we act to reduce the Rt below 1, the greater the cost in illness and death. If our interventions don’t bring Rt to 0.98 for a further one, two or three weeks, the case numbers, hospitalizations and fatalities will all increase by two or three times with each week of delay.

Clear messages

At present, there is no way to determine exactly how much our current interventions will reduce Rt. Also, steadily increasing intervention strength will have a larger impact than is reported by this single-step model. But there are still four clear messages: Regardless of intervention, we will see strong increases in case numbers and fatalities over the coming days to weeks. Without strong interventions consisting of preparatory, containment and delaying strategies (as recommended by the WHO), COVID-19 will result in over 1.6 million lives lost in the US alone. Each week delaying intervention will increase the number of cases, hospitalizations and fatalities by up to threefold. The earlier and stronger we act, the more lives will be saved. Through strong, rapid intervention it is possible to reduce the number of fatalities below 10,000 in the US and below 1,000 in the UK. Even in the best scenarios, case numbers would not fall to more manageable levels for four to six weeks from today, so people should prepare for up to two months of physical distancing and significantly limited movement. This would probably follow with a need for some level of continued distancing and vigorous country-wide surveillance, testing and isolation until a vaccine is available. There are many areas in the US and the UK that at present have very few cases; however, everyone is feeling the impact of closures, lockdowns and physical distancing measures. US President Trump and others have said “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself”. While these models are not perfect predictors, they track current trends with high accuracy and show that the impact of more moderate interventions could be devastating. Strong, immediate intervention is necessary to prevent significant loss of lives and to prevent the collapse of health infrastructures. There is definitely a need to address the long-term socioeconomic impact of these measures and ensure that there is a plan for their gradual phase-out and increased surveillance and testing. But the central message is that these measures could bring each country’s outbreak under control within two months and save thousands to hundreds-of-thousands of lives.

This article is republished from The Conversation by Jeremy Rossman, Honorary Senior Lecturer in Virology and President of Research-Aid Networks, University of Kent under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Corona coverage Read our daily coverage on how the tech industry is responding to the coronavirus and subscribe to our weekly newsletter Coronavirus in Context. For tips and tricks on working remotely, check out our Growth Quarters articles here or follow us on Twitter. Source link Read the full article

[billehrman]

Watch Interest Rates and the Dollar

The financial markets continued to advance last week as the prospects of U.S and China signing Phase I of a trade deal appear likely, surprising the naysayers. Also, the chances of a hard Brexit are diminishing and the Fed began buying its initial $60 billion/month of Treasuries pushing down the short end of the yield curve and weakening the dollar.

As discussed last week, the Monday morning quarterbacks doubted that Phase I of the trade deal would amount to hill of beans (bad pun) even if it were signed, which many doubted. We disagreed as we felt that Trump could not afford to escalate trade tensions going into elections next year as it would jeopardize the economy, the stock market and his chances of winning. Larry Kudlow gave a very convincing interview last Thursday that trade talks were going exceedingly well and that relations with China’s team had improved to the point where Phase I would be signed next month when both Presidents meet in Chile at the APEC Summit and that the next phase should be completed in a few months. While we recognize that Larry is always an optimist, we read yesterday that China’s Liu not only confirmed Kudlow’s comments but went even further discussing the progress on protecting IP and other areas of concern between the two countries.

The bottom line is that we are even more convinced today that the U.S and China will negotiate a series of trade deals over the next nine months; the December tariffs will not occur and there may be even some rollbacks of existing tariffs before election next year. While Trump clearly needs this to win election next year, China needs it to revitalize its economy and slow the exodus of manufacturers shifting their supply chains to other Far East countries.

While the ECB and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally reached a deal on Brexit, the British parliament voted to delay Brexit until January 31, 2020. Johnson will propose a Withdrawal Agreement Bill next week to Parliament to force the issue now. The bottom line is that the chances of a hard Brexit have greatly diminished and with it another leg down in the Eurozone economy.

Finally, the Fed began its off-balance sheet expansion last Wednesday by buying $7.5 billion in Treasury bills to deal with changes in the economy and to add liquidity to the financial system. While the Fed continued to stress that buying $60 billion/month of Treasury bills is not another round of QE, it does have the same impact pushing down short term rates, steepening the yield curve and weakening the dollar.

While we were not surprised that the IMF reduced, once again, its growth forecast for 2019, now at 3.0%, the lowest growth in many years, we are getting increasingly confident that we are reaching an inflection point such that global growth may re-accelerate as we move through 2020 as we expect a reduction in trade conflicts combined with more fiscal stimulus next year. We even believe that Christine Lagarde will be successful when she becomes head of the ECB in convincing Germany to loosen its purse strings and permit other Eurozone countries to do the same. The combination of monetary ease, a reduction in trade conflicts, and broad fiscal stimulation is the right recipe for accelerating growth next year.

Watch interest rates and the dollar to confirm whether the pendulum has began to swing in the other direction as we now believe.

While we remain optimistic that our markets have more room to run, we have made mild shifts in the composition of our portfolios as we have gained more confidence that global growth will be better than expected next year than currently anticipated. We now expect the yield curve to steepen; the dollar to fall; and industrial commodity prices to rise over the next year. Since we know that we are looking over the near term valley, our baby steps to get more economically sensitive in our portfolios includes adding to our financials, capital goods/industrials/machinery stocks and industrial commodity stocks while reducing our defensive holdings which are selling at the very top end of their historic valuations. Each of the companies that we own or are buying have great managements and are generating substantial free cash flow that is being used to close the gap between their current stock prices and their intrinsic value. Their dividend yields all exceed the 30-year treasury rate.

We fully recognize that global growth has continued to slow including in the U.S and China. Clearly the U.S is best positioned at the moment as our economy is dominated by consumer trends and government spending as all of the other major industrialized economies, including China, are dominated by production which has clearly continued to weaken. Since we are risk averse, we have continued to favor the U.S markets at this time but with more economic sensitivity than before.  As the cards turn up supporting our view that the trade conflicts are easing and more fiscal stimulus will be introduced abroad, we fully anticipate adding more foreign exposure to our portfolios especially if the dollar weakens as we now expect.  

Let’s take a look at the most recent data points that support/detract from our current view that the U.S economy will continue to expand at around 2% while growth overseas, including China,  is still slowing which will be the reason that governments, especially Germany, capitulate and add fiscal stimulus on top of existing extreme monetary ease.

The United States

The big debate here is whether the Fed will cut again at its next meeting, at the end of the month, or pause to see future data points that justify another rate cut. The Fed has cover either way, but it is our opinion that while the strength of the U.S economy really does not justify another cut at this time, the Fed will cut again due to global weakness, low inflation and a super strong dollar. Don’t forget that the Fed buying $60 billion/month of treasury bills is another source of monetary ease in addition to lowering the funds rate.

The consumer continues strong as evidenced by another strong Conference Board leading economic index of 111.9 in September; the coincident economic index at 105.6 and lagging index at 108.3. On the other hand, U.S factory output weakened in September impacted by the GM strike, sluggish global demand and the trade war. These numbers may reverse if the GM employees ratify a deal accepted by their leadership and the U.S/China really reach a full trade ceasefire. It may clearly be time to look over the valley!

We were particularly impressed by the largest bank earnings reported this past week. Both Jimmy Dimon of JPM and Brian Moynihan of BAC specifically mentioned that consumer spending remains particularly strong due to higher levels of employment, rising wages and above average savings rates along with lower borrowings. Who knows better than them? Both mentioned weakness in business sentiment and spending, too. No surprise!

We are increasingly confident that Trump will do all in his power to stimulate the economy to foster higher stock prices as we move closer to elections next year. That will mean a ratcheting down of trade conflicts plus additional fiscal stimulus wherever possible. There really is no place better than home to invest today especially with an accommodative Fed. Bet on more growth next year rather than less. In other words, don’t listen to the pundits.

China

The Chinese economy grew at only 6% (probably overstated) in the third quarter 2019, the slowest rate of growth since the early 1990s. September data points show it all: factory output rose only 5.8%; retail sales growth slowed to 7.8%; business investment gained only 5.4% in the first nine months of the year and the jobless rate held at 5.2%. In addition, China exports fell 3.2% in September from a year ago while imports fell 8.5% during the same period. Finally, the PPI is falling while the CPI is increasing at its fastest pace in 6 years due to surge in pork prices. Not good!

China clearly needs a trade deal that includes major purchases of agricultural products.

The Eurozone

Economic growth has slowed to a virtual halt in the region while inflation has now fallen to a three-year low at 0.8% annualized in September despite all of the monetary stimulus. It finally appears that even Merkel’s own Christian Democratic policy is acknowledging the need for some fiscal stimulus. We will believe it when we see it, but we are growing increasingly confident that deflationary fears along with pressure from Christine Lagarde will lead to a breakthrough in Germany which will lead to added stimulus everywhere in Europe. Time will tell, but the pendulum is clearly beginning to swing the other way.

Japan

Japan is clearly stuck in a rut as it just raised retail sales taxes which is hitting consumer demand while exports remain weak. It is laughable that the big trade deal with the U.S will add only 0.8% to Japan’s GNP over the next 10-20 years. Japan needs growth elsewhere so that its exports can grow once again.

Let’s wrap this up.

Clearly we are back to the point that bad news is really good news as it is finally causing positive change to take place: the U.S and China have reached a real ceasefire on escalating trade tensions that may lead to a series of deals over the next 9 months; a hard Brexit seems to have been avoided; Germany seems to be capitulating on adding fiscal stimulus and our Fed has embarked on a new round of QE to replenish its balance sheet and  lower short term rates which will weaken the dollar. Finally, Trump will do all in his power to bolster the U.S economy and stock market as he runs hard to win a second term.

The bottom line is that the pendulum is on the brink of moving in the other direction such that we may finally be talking about a resumption of global growth next year rather than further slowing. We have taken the first steps to shift our portfolio accordingly adding to global capital goods/industrial/machinery companies selling at recession valuations; adding some financials which will benefit from a steepening yield curve and some industrial commodity companies which will benefit from more growth and a falling dollar.  We have maintained our technology exposure, including some semis; cable with content; healthcare only with major new products; airlines and many special situations.

Remember that the wind remains to our backs as long as we have an overly accommodative Fed and other monetary bodies creating more money than still needed by the real economy forcing investors out on the risk curve.

The weekly Investment Committee webinar will be held Monday morning October 21st, at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time.

You can join the webinar by typing https://zoom.us/j/9179217852 into your browser.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; analyze your asset mix with risk controls; do independent research which includes listening to company earnings calls and …

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

[allaircss-a]

ellie allaire

i’m sure alot of y’all already know me and this trash baby but for those of you who don’t i’m mhairi and this is ellie, an actual trainwreck. i’ve given her a bit of a revamp so even if you’ve read her old intro please check out bellow the cut!

this is pretty long so here’s the cliffnotes

daughter of the french wizarding ambasador and a death eater, niece of the french minister of magic, a big mess, will fite u, will die for her friends, will die holding a grudge

isn’t that ÉLODIE “ELLIE” ALLAIRE? yeah that is HER, sitting there at the RAVENCLAW table with those other SIXTH years and i think i heard sybill saying they look like FREYA MAVOR… whoever that is! when she looks into her crystal ball she sees clenched fists hidden in lace sleves, blood red wine dripping from a shattered glass, & biting your tongue but the words don’t stop.  anyway i’ve heard they’re pretty DEVOTED, ARGUMENTATIVE, and IRRESPONSIBLE. apparently they’re a PUREBLOOD but i’m sure that’s not related. —— [ mhairi : gmt+1 : 18 : she/her ]

basics

NAME  Élodie Ophelia Allaire

NICKNAME  Ellie

AGE  Sixteen

DOB  April 1st 1960

SEXUALITY  Bisexual

PARENTS  Henri Allaire & Desdemona Allaire née Mulciber

Rosine Millefeuille (father’s first wife) DECEASED

SIBLINGS  Christèle Allaire, 35.  Dorothée Allaire, 32. Véronique Allaire, 29. (HALF SIBLINGS)  Milène Allaire, 20.  Lucrèce Allaire, 17. Éric Allaire,16.

HOUSE  Ravenclaw

FAMILY STATUS  very wealthy, ambassador of wizarding france, related to french minister of magic (ellie’s uncle)

RELATIONSHIP STATUS  single, soon to be betrothed

HOMETOWN  Île de Batz

CURRENTLY RESIDES  London

appearance

HEIGHT  5′9″

WEIGHT  121lbs

EYES  Blue

HAIR  Gold

GLASSES/CONTACTS   Needs reading glasses, vehemently denies this

extras

PERSONALITY TYPE  ENFP

ALIGNMENT  Chaotic Good

TEMPERAMENT  Sanguine

PATRONUS  If Ellie were to attempt to cast a patronus she likely wouldn’t manage to cast a incorporeal one, however if she were to produce a corporeal partronus it would take the form of a horse.

The horse represents freedom, and this is displayed in many forms. It first signals a free spirit, and someone ready to explore and feel alive. Individuals with this patronus are passionate, and though that may be so, they at times may be limited in some way, and therefore their spirit is more ready to run through the fields since they cannot. The nature of the horse is also represented in these people because they do not limit themselves to the conforms of society, but rather feel they have their own path, their own destiny, and they have control over how they get there. They are strong-hearted and magnificent at best. The most common house for this patronus is Hufflepuff. The most common signs are Aquarius and Aries. source

BOGGART Most of Ellie’s fears are concepts that are hard if not impossible for a bogart to assume the form of but there is one that has an easy physical representation, Ellie is terrified of bats. Upon casting a riddikulus charm the cloud of bats changes into black satin ribbons falling through the air.

WAND  Applewood, fairy wings w. unicorn hair, 11", wishy. Ellie, along with the rest of her siblings, got her wand in France.

APPLEWOOD   Applewood wands are not made in great numbers. They are powerful and best suited to an owner of high aims and ideals, as this wood mixes poorly with Dark magic. It is said that the possessor of an apple wand will be well-loved and long-lived, and I have often noticed that customers of great personal charm find their perfect match in an applewood wand. An unusual ability to converse with other magical beings in their native tongues is often found among apple wand owners, who include the celebrated author of Merpeople: A Comprehensive Guide to Their Language and Customs, Dylan Marwood.

FAIRY WINGS  This core makes for a light, airy wand, and is the absolute best for Charms. They also signify a connection to the mystic, so these wands, despite their relative rarity, are used by nearly half of known witches and wizards with the Sight. Despite their astounding strength in Charms, they are merely average in Defense Against the Dark Arts and Transfiguration, and will often fail at hexes altogether. As such, they’re not commonly found in Slytherin House, but are common in Hufflepuff. Ravenclaws and Gryffindors may be drawn to this core, although they tend to react better to blends of fairy wings and unicorn hair.

UNICORN HAIR  Unicorn hair generally produces the most consistent magic, and is least subject to fluctuations and blockages. Wands with unicorn cores are generally the most difficult to turn to the Dark Arts. They are the most faithful of all wands, and usually remain strongly attached to their first owner, irrespective of whether he or she was an accomplished witch or wizard. Minor disadvantages of unicorn hair are that they do not make the most powerful wands (although the wand wood may compensate) and that they are prone to melancholy if seriously mishandled, meaning that the hair may 'die' and need replacing.

source

ZODIAC  Aries

aries is passion, fire in their veins, endless energy. they want to live forever and just experience everything, passionate about life and love and anything that holds their interest. they want to be the best at everything. they’re icarus flying too close to the sun, achilles and his power and his immortality. they’re loud and wild and they want the world, to live with childish excitement. their anger, though, is unpredictable and terrifying, like a volcano or a dragon that leave nothing behind their fury.

source

SORTING  A hatstall is a sorting that lasts more than five minutes, Ellie’s sorting was five minutes ten seconds. A hatstall between Ravenclaw and Gryffindor (although slytherin was an early possibility), it was her insatiable curiosity that won out over the bold and brash actions that she would take to find out answers.

report card

Ellie sat ten OWLs in her fifth year, getting nine Outstanding’s and one Acceptable

Ancient Runes, O.

Arithmancy, O.

Astronomy, O.

Charms, O.

Defence Against the Dark Arts, O.

History of Magic, O.

Herbology, A.

Muggle Studies, O.

Transfiguration, O.

Potions, O.

Now in her sixth year, Ellie is taking seven NEWTs

Arithmancy

Astronomy

Charms

Defence Against the Dark Arts

History of Magic

Muggle Studies

Potions

bio

born to henri allaire and his second wife, desdemona mulciber, ellie is the youngest of seven.

far from a treasured child she was instead seen as a nuisance. the sixth daughter in a family that lost patience after the second, here was another daughter to marry off, another burden not a potential heir. amplified more than it was for her sisters by her twin being the elusive and long awaited heir to the allaire fortune.

the allaire’s are a wealthy french pureblood family. originating from  île de batz in brittany, they rose to prominence in french wizarding politics with thirteen ministers of magic being an allaire and many more claiming wives or mothers holding the name. two terms ago her grand-père stepped down after a quarter of a century as minster and just last year her uncle léopold became minister.

already sidelined by her family, and the pureblood society her father favoured, for her sex, she struggled even for recognition from her parents, she wasn’t one of the treasured three daughters of a wife oh so suddenly taken by dragon pox. she did not posses the quiet manners and meek tones of her eldest sister, milène. nor did the airs of a french pureblood lady come automatically, sneer and all, as they did to lucrèce. and of course she wasn’t the long awaited heir, pride, and joy that her twin éric was.

her father met her mother, desdemona mulciber when he worked in britain for a few years as an aide to his uncle, the french wizarding ambassador at the time, but returned to france not long after the wedding.

ellie an her siblings grew up in france in the allaire’s ancestral home on île de batz only moving to the uk when she was ten when her father was made ambasador.

she carved out her own place almost by accident, learning fast the only way she was noticed was if she caused an issue. her mother and father had no time for subtlety, if she felt something she had to proclaim it, if she wanted something she had to demand it, if believed something she had to argue it.

hcs

trigger warning parental abuse

Ellie tried so hard to keep her O.W.L. choices a secret, she truly did. Its not that she didn’t want to anger her parents, that was never the issue, she did that just by existing. It’s just she’d never have done anything that would infuriate them so. She lasted all of summer, a summer of lying, a summer of pretending, saying it just was arithmancy and runes. Just that. Never mentioning the third one. She got to school thinking she’d escaped their wrath, delaying it till fifth year. Unbeknown to her, her elder sister Lucrèce had written a letter to her parents, a week after hallowe’en, and they’d spent two months seething. As soon as she got home from christmas she was hit by a wave of blinding, white hot rage. That holiday marked the first her parents had used an unforgivable curse on her, but it didn’t work. They tried to get her to drop it but they only made her buckle down. She got a outstanding in muggle studies and the scars from their anger are still healing.

end trigger warning

She’s a very volatile person, quick to anger and long to calm down holding grudges for years.

Her parents are both supporters of Voldermort, her mother is a death eater, dark mark and all, but her father only agrees with his ideology. Even with the views in wizarding France, it’s bad optics for their ambassador to get involved with UK wizarding politics, but he lets her wife have her hobbies.

She used to be a big hopeless romantic, in someways she still is, but it’s a part of herself she’s tried to kill off in recent years. When her first serious relationship ended badly (wc!) she pinned most of the blame on him, but felt that the reason she felt the break up so badly was because of her romanticism and so has tried to cut that part of herself out.

She’s always been fascinated with the muggle world, stemming mainly from her close relationship with her disowned Uncle Matthieu. He was disowned for marrying a half-veela who was also the daughter of a muggleborn Brigitte Bonaccord (now a famous model in the muggle world). She spends as many summers as she can in muggle Paris instead of her family home on Île de Batz.

More to be added.

connections

her twin brother

her older sister

her betrothed/messy ex

her crush

friends 

Ellie is a fairly outgoing person, she sets out to make friends first rather than enemies, even with her personal convictions her friends tend to be her blindspot. She’s also friends with quite a varied mix of people.

enemies

Despite that Ellie tends towards rather snap judgements on those she’s not already friends with especially if her friends paint them in a certain light. She also tends to be very vocal in her dislike of people.

grudges

It doesn’t have to be anything big, they might not even know they’ve done something grudge worthy but Ellie would.

past hookups/regular hookups

In the wake of her break up she’s mostly tried to keep things casual. She’s bi so this could be guys and girls.

people she tried dating

Even though she mostly tried to keep things casual, she did try dating a few times... with varying success. Usually ending badly on Ellie’s end.