#next stock market crash prediction

[moneyhustlers]

3 Exciting US Stock Market Predictions for the Second Half of 2023: Insights for Investors

US Stock Market Predictions for the Second Half of 2023 Navigating the Future: Expert Insights Unveil 3 Key US Stock Market Predictions for the Second Half of 2023 In this post, we have gathered information from Nasdaq’s website and other reliable financial source. in this article We will discuss, 3 Exciting US Stock Market Predictions for the Second Half of 2023, We have condensed this…

[veronicaleighauthor]

The Great Depression

It’s odd to admit that The Great Depression fascinates me, especially since it was a dark period in American history. But it does fascinate me, enough so that I’ve written several short stories and a couple novels (unpublished) based in the era. How people lived, what they ate, how they entertained themselves – most of all how they survived that period – it intrigues me.

Following WWI, during the Roaring Twenties the economy and America thrived. The present and future appeared bright. A few economists predicted that the good times couldn’t last forever, but the world paid little attention. Throughout 1929, there were signs of a slowing economy, and then on October 24th – what is now known as Black Thursday – the stock market crashed. In the following weeks, it was confirmed that the perpetual party of the 1920’s was over and that a new, bleak era was being ushered in.

For the next decade, America and the rest of the world endured the Great Depression. Images of bank closures and people lined up for soup kitchen often crop up in the history books and on the internet. As well as the famous photograph of the careworn mother and her children. My four grandparents lived through the Great Depression and that part of their lives affected their experiences and behavior. Even late in life, they couldn’t shake off those memories. Growing up, I heard countless stories of those days. My grandmother, Margaret, was very candid about the past. She would have just turned twelve when the stock market crashed and she would have been sixteen in 1933, which was considered one of the worst years during the Depression. Her memories were vivid, painting a picture that the history books couldn’t. She was the third of six children – her eldest brother died as a baby – her father was a boiler maker and her mother a housewife. They were a loving Christian family, which is what I believe brought them through the hardest of times. Grandma and her family never went hungry, however, there were many times they didn’t know they’d make ends meet. Yet somehow, they always did.

Hobos would show up on their back porch. A picture of a cat had been drawn on their fence, signaling to other hobos that a kind lady lived there. And my great-grandmother, Edith, was kind, feeding whoever was hungry. If great-grandpa, Charles was present, the visitor would be welcomed in the kitchen to eat and for a nice conversation. Charles always had a job, unfortunately he didn’t always have work and was often sent home. By 1933, his health began to fail and two weeks before Margaret’s sixteenth birthday, he died. Extended family planned to help, by splitting up the family. So-and-So would take Margaret, So-and-So would take Bettie, So-and-So would take Russel…but Edith was adamant: “We may starve together, but we will stay together.” For the remainder of the 1930s, they banded together to survive.

The weather seemed to turn against the country as well. Dust storms struck all over America, costing lives and ruining livelihoods. It soon became known as the Dust Bowl. Lightening accompanied the storms, and folks would hang chains off the bumpers of their cars to prevent them from being stuck. If caught in a dust storm, one would have to cover their face with a cloth and walk backwards against the gusts. Houses had to be shut up tight, windows closed and key holes plugged to prevent the dust from seeping in. But old houses had their crevices and dust would get in somehow. Decades later, Margaret and others who lived through the Dust Bowl, out of habit would place cups and bowls upside down in the cabinets because that is what they did to prevent dust from collecting on their dishes.

Clothing was rarely store bought. Dresses were made from stylishly printed feed sacks, using patterns, and sewn by hand, or by sewing machine. Sweaters and cardigans were knitted or crocheted. Shoes were worn at work and school, but at home if the weather was seasonable, they went barefoot to preserve their shoes. Clothing was patched and mended and passed from one sibling down to another, then onto another family. Like many of that era, Margaret left high school early to work. She was first a maid, then she worked in a number of factories. Her earnings of $4 a week went to the household. Later during WWII, when she earned $16, she was allowed to keep $4 for herself, and felt she was rich.

Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected president and was eventually voted into office three more terms, holding the position until his death in 1945. After Herbert Hoover, who was oblivious to the suffering of the American people, many trusted Roosevelt would lead the nation through the dark times. His New Deal, his relief programs, his steadiness, his fireside chats were a beacon of hope. His assurances that they had “nothing to fear but fear itself” spoke volumes. Despite his attempts to alleviate the financial woes and troubles of the 1930s, the US didn’t rise out of the Great Depression until the onslaught of WWII.

            Years later, Grandma told me that her life had been a hard one, but it had been good and satisfying. I believe many of that era would say as much. I don’t know if it is the Great Depression that is my favorite era, or if it’s the people who lived during that time. They possessed an indomitable spirit. After the Great Depression, they endured WWII and more or less saved the world. That generation proved to us that whatever trials we may face today, this too shall pass.

[landofzero-archive]

Ibara Saegusa - Private Room Chapter 6

Writer: Nishioka Maiko

Season: Autumn

(Location: Starmony Dorms Courtyard (Evening))

Aira: We did it! It’s been safely completed~♪

You’re amazing, Saegusa-senpai! It looks even cuter and nicer than before it was broken, it even looks brand new! Takamine-senpai would be so happy with this.

Ibara: My my, it’s fortunate that we somehow managed to do it with materials we could find in the dorm.

Aira: All things considered, Saegusa-senpai is so handy. You made this in no time, too. Do you like DIY?

Ibara: It’s not like I like DIY in particular. I spent a long period of time in a place with no entertainment or shops, so I just ended up being able to do it out of necessity.

Aira: Oh. Is that so, that sounds kind of awful…

Ibara: Come on, all we need to do is give it to Takamine-shi back in the dorm room. Let’s go back.

(Location: Starmony Dorm Room (Ibara, Mitsuru, Midori, Tsumugi's Room))

Midori: I’m back……

Mitsuru: I’m back~!

Aira: Ah, Takamine-senpai, Tenma-senpai. Welcome back—

Also…… Takamine-senpai, I’m sorry!

Midori: Eh. W-what? Getting apologised to when I just got back is too scary……!

Aira: The truth is, I borrowed Takamine-senpai’s stepping stool and broke it……

Midori: Stepping stool? The one with the mascot character on it? Why again?

Ibara: It seems that he used it since it was right next to him when he was trying to reach for the tea leaves.

Aira: That’s right. After that, Saegusa-senpai and I rebuilt it while preserving the parts that were left of the mascot character…… This is it.

Midori: Uwaaaaa……♪ It’s great! Even though it was so worn-out before, it looks spick and span! You’ve even painted cute colours over the parts that were peeling off! 

Mitsuru: You’re both incredible~! It looks brand new!

Aira: But the fact that I borrowed without asking and broke it still stands, so I’m sorry……!

Midori: No, I really don’t mind that you broke it.

Rather, to think that it can be this pretty when it was so worn-out before. Shiratori-kun, Saegusa-senpai, thank you very much……♪

Mitsuru: Then, you two made this today?

Ibara: Yes. We were fixing it up till around dusk.

Mitsuru: That sounds hard~. You’ve had a hard day, haven't you, Ai-chan?

Aira: Mm…… That may seem like it was the case, but the truth is it really wasn’t.

Mitsuru: Eh?

Aira: Because this whole day today I was able to see a lot of  Saegusa-senpai’s surprising sides! It was a beautiful sight for an idol otaku!

(Location: CosPro Conference Area)

(The next day)

Ibara: ………

…… Right. I’ve sent off replies for all the agenda that came in during my day off.

So, what next?

Ah, come to think of it, the prints sent around to be checked got back to me. I need to send a reply to the other party too.

Mm? My personal tablet is ringing. I guess that means it’s telling me about the stock prices changing again.

(…… I’m getting a sense of deja-vu. The last time I checked the market situation at a time like this, the stock price plummeted suddenly.)

Good grief…… Is it going to drop further? I’d really like for it to give me a break. Even a big loss would be considered good—

Hm? What on earth is this……? Since it’s the same situation as the other day, I thought the stock price would plummet again today. Rather, it’s suddenly rising.

(The price has almost returned to what it was before the sudden crash. At this rate, there is a possibility that the stock price will rise even more than before the sharp downward trend.

Furthermore, it looks like the other stocks I own are showing signs of upward movement across the board.)

I wonder what happened……It’s not as if a huge incident has occurred.

That reminds me……

(Flashback to Chapter 1)

Natsume: Maybe you could turn your luck around by reclaiming something familIAR.

(Back to present time)

Ibara: (Could it be because I fixed the stepping stool with Shiratori-shi……?)

………

Hah, that’s ridiculous. If fortune-telling can predict stock price fluctuations, then society will collapse.

It’s probably just that my luck has turned around lately.

Now then. I can focus my efforts on working wholeheartedly.

Even though there was an accident yesterday, contrary to my expectations, it ended up being a good break.

Seems like there’s going to be good progress with today’s work……♪

Previous | Directory

[saturniandevil]

April 2023 Important Dates

AKA my notes on The Astrology Podcast's April Forecast, hosted by Chris Brennan, Austin Coppock, and guest host Robert Weinstein. Mundane recap: Pluto's ingress into Aquarius heralds the integration of AI-generated text and images into larger parts of life, impacting industries, job markets, warfare, and more. The TikTok ban bill is another manifestation of Pluto's power struggle significations. Saturn in Pisces has also hinted at some of the upcoming themes: the recent banking crisis and a shift in public policy re: covid. The Saturn-Uranus cycle has served as an indicator to economic booms & busts, with eclipses especially igniting this--the 1929 stock market crash happened with the Nodes on the Taurus-Scorpio axis, and the FTX crash can be seen as a final crisis from Saturn square Uranus around an eclipse. Chris predicts eclipses will continue to affect finance. In popular culture, Everything Everywhere All At Once won many awards and was released during the Pisces stellium, which thematically fits.

Additionally, many planets change signs and put themselves in aspect to Saturn or Pluto for the first time since the outer planets entered these new signs, setting the tone for the next few years (or decades, in the case of Pluto). We've got a lot of beginnings and motion with the cardinal sign emphasis (we begin the month with an Aries stellium and Mars having just entered Cancer, and end it with an Aries eclipse).

April 3rd - Mercury enters Taurus From here Mercury squares Pluto, sextiles Saturn & Mars, conjoins an eclipse point and approaches Uranus, putting it in a difficult position to do the planting & planning to which the first decan of Taurus is normally conducive. Slow down and be methodical about what we're doing. Between Pluto's underground machinations and Uranus's unpredictability, it's hard for us to make decisions. In the sign of Taurus this will almost certainly have financial implications as well. Mercury will start slowing down around the 10th or 11th, with the retrograde shadow beginning at 5Taurus soon after an eclipse. Funnily enough, he will retrograde over these same degrees later in the year.

April 6th - Full Moon in Libra Here's the chart:

The Moon is at 16Libra, with the Sun within 4 degrees of conjunction to Jupiter (♈). The Moon is coming off a square with Mars (♋), part of a larger shift towards tension in cardinal signs during the Red Planet's transit. Chiron at 15Aries is very close to the Sun (conjunction) & Moon (opposition). The Moon's ruler Venus has just left a conjunction with Uranus, and in her domicile of Taurus, indicates some fervent and moderately successful attempts at stabilizing matters. We may also find stability through contracts and deals, which are associated with the second decan of Libra. Venus is also approaching Jupiter, whose proximity to the Sun makes him combust (too close to the Sun to be visible) and less able to provide the optimism & reassurance we seek. Alternately, hopeful events may be happening behind the scenes while our optimist planet is invisible for 2-4 weeks.

April 10th - Selected auspicious election

This occurs around 2:10PM local time, with Leo rising and Ascendant ruler the Sun in the 9th whole sign house, which for a day chart is extremely fortuitous. It takes advantage of the Sun-Jupiter cazimi about to occur, with the former in exaltation making things even more auspicious. The Moon in Sagittarius applies to a trine with domicile lord Jupiter. Venus is in the last degrees of Taurus, so Leo rising charts earlier in the month can take advantage of her presence in earlier degrees. 9th house topics (Jupiter) include education, travel, higher learning and publishing, while 10th house topics with Venus can indicate art & creativity. With the Moon in the 5th house this can also be good for leisure or fun & games.

April 11th - Venus enters Gemini, Sun-Jupiter conjunction (♈) The Jupiter cazimi (exact conjunction to Sun) occurs around 21-22Aries: there is still something to believe in. Not only is this fortuitous as a heightening of the greater benefic's energies, but the Sun is also in exaltation. Think optimism, expansion, and hope (Jupiter) and doing something at a level of excellence (exalted Sun). This is the seed point for new ideas, leadership and following your own path. Unfortunately the next week brings a damper on otherwise great events.

Upon entering Gemini, Venus immediately trines Pluto (♒) and soon after squares Saturn (♓), the last major aspects leading up into the eclipse. Venus trine Pluto in air signs can signal intensifying personal relationships as communication delves deeper, or perhaps enjoying the new technologies that are otherwise scary. However, Pluto is rarely light and Saturn makes things significantly heavier. Venus square Saturn indicates significant boundaries or obstacles in personal relationships, something that may keep the relationship from happening at all. In Austin's words, Saturn either locks you out or locks you in. This is also the time when Mercury starts slowing down to a speed slower than average in preparation for retrograde (figuratively tiptoeing up towards Uranus and deciding to turn around).

April 20th - Lunar eclipse in Aries, Sun enters Taurus This is the first eclipse both of the year and in the Aries-Libra axis, but we're not totally out of the woods yet for fixed signs.

The eclipse has a very close out-of-sign square to Pluto, and immediately after, the Moon ingresses into Taurus and squares Pluto, as does the Sun soon later. We'll get insight into what the next 20 years of Pluto in Aquarius has in store. Eclipses have indicated dramatic shifts in leadership since the earliest days of astrology, and Austin says in Aries this indicates actual heads of state. This lunar mansion/nakshatra is also associated with medicine, the public figure(s) in question may be in that field. Pluto at 0Aquarius (degree where pandemic lockdown measures intensified at various times) weighs in via a sextile to the moon, and this eclipse is also square the US Sibly chart's Pluto with Mars, eclipse ruler, on the US Sun. Thus Chris and Robert both expect significant financial events during this upcoming eclipse season.

April 21st - Mercury stations retrograde in Taurus This station occurs closely conjunct Uranus, so technological snafus and freak accidents are certainly in order. Mercury in Taurus helps the trains run on time, so we can expect further disruption and chaos on that front. Avoid messing with electricity if you can, and generally we may feel a shock to the collective nervous system. The Sun-Mercury conjunction marking the retrograde's halfway point will occur around May 1st, so we can expect to start moving towards a resolution then. On May 5th we get the answering eclipse to this one, Mercury stationing direct on the 15th, and Jupiter entering Taurus soon after. These events in mid-May will help stabilize things, though Mars will form a T-square with Jupiter and Uranus... Overall we feel eclipses for a couple weeks on either side. Pay attention to the parts of your chart where the eclipses occur: new beginnings and endings are in order as the nodes move!

[mariacallous]

The prospect that US residents may soon be able to invest in bitcoin through their brokerage, as if it were a regular stock, has prompted a fresh round of hype in crypto circles—and a surge in crypto prices.

Several investment firms, including heavy-hitters like BlackRock and Fidelity, are queuing up to launch a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. These funds would track the price of bitcoin, making them the closest thing to investing in the crypto token directly without dealing with a crypto exchange or storing crypto manually, a process fraught with risk.

After a bruising 18 months in which crypto prices buckled, high-profile businesses collapsed, and two crypto figureheads were convicted of crimes in the US, the crypto industry is supposed to be cleaning up its act. That the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to be entertaining a spot bitcoin ETF after years of resistance is seen by some as a signal that crypto is moving beyond its free-wheeling years.

The arrival of such a fund in the US—by far the world’s largest ETF market—“is a significant milestone,” says Samson Mow, a prominent bitcoin evangelist and CEO of bitcoin-centric technology firm JAN3, as it will allow investors to hold bitcoin through a conventional financial product for the first time.

While there is broad consensus around the likelihood of an ETF approval among analysts, the idea that it would be symbolic of the industry’s coming of age is contradicted by the frenzy of speculation around what will happen to the price of bitcoin.

On X, crypto influencers with hundreds of thousands of followers are predicting an ETF will send the price of bitcoin soaring, in posts peppered with the rocket ship emoji. The arrival of a spot bitcoin ETF, claims Mow, will unlock a wave of pent-up demand and lead a “torrent of capital” to “pour into bitcoin.” Institutions and other investors that either cannot or choose not to invest in unregulated financial products will seize the opportunity to invest, he says, driving the price far beyond its previous heights.

An ETF might point to a growing acceptance of bitcoin among legacy financial institutions, but the implications for the price of bitcoin are being both mis- and overstated, ETF analysts warn, and the boosterism on display shows that little about crypto has changed.

Twelve applications for spot bitcoin ETFs are awaiting approval from the SEC. Delays are commonplace, but the agency is due to make a call on some of the applications as early as January 1, 2024. The three ETF analysts who spoke to WIRED expect the SEC to green-light a spot bitcoin ETF at some point next year.

In Canada, Germany, and elsewhere, spot bitcoin ETFs already exist. And US investors have had access to bitcoin futures ETFs, the value of which are correlated with the price of bitcoin, since 2021. The approval of a spot bitcoin ETF in the US is significant because it would, for the first time, give US investors access to a close proxy to bitcoin in a familiar and regulated format.

The attention paid to the topic by crypto trade media emphasizes the current fixation in industry circles. Since this summer, when speculation about the arrival of a spot bitcoin ETF began to ratchet up, crypto news site CoinDesk has published dozens of articles and videos on the topic.

In that same period, crypto markets have experienced dramatic swings, and the price of bitcoin has risen by almost a third. In some cases, price swings have been triggered by rumor and misreporting. On October 16, crypto outlet CoinTelegraph issued a retraction and apology after putting out an erroneous post on X announcing the approval of the first spot bitcoin ETF in the US, based on a screenshot posted by an X user, which led to a buying spree that increased the price of bitcoin by 10 percent.

On November 13, a falsified ETF filing relating to a separate cryptocurrency, XRP, caused a 13 percent rise in the token’s price. By the end of the day, those gains had evaporated. The Financial Times calculated that “imaginary bitcoin ETFs” were already worth 30 times the actual spot bitcoin ETFs already in existence worldwide.

Some ETF analysts, like Aniket Ullal of investment research firm CFRA, share the belief that the arrival of an ETF is likely to increase demand for bitcoin as an investment asset. But the effect on price will not be a “short-term spike,” Ullal says, but rather stretch out over multiple years.

Others say it will have the polar opposite effect to that predicted by figures like Mow, and that the price of bitcoin could plummet as investors attracted by the hubbub quickly cash out their winnings. “The idea that there is a huge pile of demand that will somehow materialize is just not true,” argues Peter Schiff, economist and CEO at asset management firm Euro Pacific. “It’s more of a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ situation.”

The “narrative” that an ETF is a “catalyst for growing demand” has attracted speculators, says Bryan Armour, director of passive research strategies for North America at investment research firm Morningstar. “Hype has always been one of the core tenets of bitcoin. It seems like hype is at an all-time high.”

Figures from research firm Fineqia suggest the volume of crypto trading activity has surged in response to speculation over the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF and its market impact. In mid-November, daily trading volume on crypto exchanges reached $31.4 billion, the highest level in more than six months.

“There’s always the possibility that people are hyping it up for their own benefit,” says Mow, who adds that he doesn’t believe the broader crypto industry—which he considers to be separate from bitcoin and describes as a “grift”—is capable of cleaning up its act. “The crypto industry will keep churning out FTXs and people will keep investing because it’s a spectacle,” he says.

But whether or not bitcoin is different—a mature asset whose legitimacy would be “cemented,” as Mow claims, by an ETF approval—the relentless speculation surrounding it will expose investors to risk. “It is wildly volatile and should be handled carefully,” says Armour. But, he adds, people “hear the siren song and buy in.”

[dontmeantobepoliticalbut]

After spending the Trump administration cutting taxes for the wealthy and massively raising military spending, congressional Republicans are back to caterwauling about deficits. This was as predictable as the sun coming up in the morning. When Republicans are in power they give away the store and then when the Democrats are called in to clean up their mess, Republicans immediately rant and rave about government spending and the debt. This has been going on for decades and it would have been short-sighted to expect anything different from them this time.

Naturally, they're putting the safety net programs on the chopping block. The Washington Post reports:

"In recent days, a group of GOP lawmakers has called for the creation of special panels that might recommend changes to Social Security and Medicare, which face genuine solvency issues that could result in benefit cuts within the next decade. Others in the party have resurfaced more detailed plans to cut costs, including by raising the Social Security retirement age to 70, targeting younger Americans who have yet to obtain federal benefits."

If that immediately brings to mind the words "Simpson-Bowles" (and makes you break out in a cold sweat) you might be like me and have PTSD from the last time this was introduced back in 2012. It didn't make it into law but only because the Freedom Caucus refused to take yes for an answer when the Obama team opened the door for some serious reductions in benefits. That wasn't the first time Democrats offered up cuts to those programs and were rebuffed. Back in 1995 when the House Republicans shut down the government to force spending cuts, Bill Clinton offered cuts to Medicare and speaker Newt Gingrich said it wasn't enough and walked away.

Republicans have been trying to do away with these vital programs from the moment they were introduced. When Social Security was passed in 1935, only 2% of Democrats voted against it (ironically because it didn't go far enough) and 33% of Republicans voted against it. In those days it was out of fealty to corporate America which was appalled at the prospect of "destroying initiative, discouraging thrift and stifling responsibility." The program became popular and difficult to dislodge but Republicans never gave up. It wasn't long until the libertarian thinkers on the right were coming up with a new plan to replace the program with private investment accounts. This long-standing dream was finally formally proposed by George W. Bush in 2005 and it went down in flames. When the stock market crashed three years later in the epic financial crisis of 2008, that idea mercifully died a quiet death.

Medicare had the same trajectory. Former President Ronald Reagan helped to make his name as an opponent of Social Security and Medicare back in the early '60s. In those years before social media, he had a big hit with a spoken word record album entitled "Ronald Reagan Speaks Out Against Socialized Medicine" which came out in 1961, as the program was still in the proposal stage. He said:

"One of the traditional methods of imposing statism or socialism on a people has been by way of medicine. It's very easy to disguise a medical program as a humanitarian project, most people are a little reluctant to oppose anything that suggests medical care for people who possibly can't afford it... it's simply an excuse to bring about what they wanted all the time: socialized medicine."

The GOP's opposition never ceased.

When he was a congressman, Vice President Mike Pence voted against Medicare Part D, the program's drug benefit, along with dozens of other Republicans. And I don't think I need to recapitulate the hysterical opposition to Obamacare, which they also claimed was a swift descent into socialist hell.

Opposition to any and all safety net programs is in the right's DNA. The problem for them, however, is that these programs are popular so they have been unsuccessful in eliminating them altogether. So instead they've managed to protect their wealthy benefactors from having to kick in more money, which they could easily afford, to shore up the finances. If they can slowly starve the programs (and the people who depend upon them) they may just win in the long run.

What's different with the new Republican majority's plans is that there is no ideological rationale for doing it anymore.

In the past you had the likes of Reagan and Gingrich, influenced strongly by anti-communism and libertarian, free-market dogma, proposing to end these so-called entitlement programs because they were evidence of creeping socialism. In the words of anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, the federal government must be shrunk to a size so small it could be drowned in the bathtub. "Small government" and "local control" were their watchwords. Today, what we have known as the modern conservative movement barely exists in any recognizable sense. They constantly throw the words "freedom" and "socialism" around, but they have no discernible meaning except as weapons in the culture war. GOP governors like Florida's Ron DeSantis require businesses to bend to his will or risk state sanction while books and topics that Republicans don't like are being officially censored by the government in public schools and universities. They are full-blown authoritarians --- their supposed "live or let live" libertarian ethos (always pretty weak in my opinion) drowned itself in the bathtub when Donald Trump came down that golden escalator.

This new House majority is driven by one thing and one thing only: owning the libs. Shutting down the government or holding the debt ceiling hostage for the ostensible purpose of lowering the deficit is just a power play to them for the purpose of showing they can do it. If they have to crash the world economy in the process, so be it.

It remains to be seen if this new House majority will use the safety net as leverage in their debt ceiling game of chicken. Donald Trump is adamantly against it because his feral instinct tells him that even attempting to do it is unpopular with older voters, his base. The fact that instead of putting it directly into their negotiations and instead creating some "special panels to look into it" suggests that even the House crazies understand that the risks are high with no chance of reward. (President Joe Biden will never sign a bill cutting these programs in an election year.) But they'll put on some kind of show for the Fox News crowd anyway. After all, if the whole point is to own the libs, the mere threat is all it takes to give their followers a thrill.

[wumblr]

This Time It Really Might Be Different On October 11, 1987, I first came across the saying “this time it’s different.”  According to an article in The New York Times by Anise C. Wallace, Sir John Templeton had warned that when investors say times are different, it’s usually in an effort to rationalize valuations that appear high relative to history – and it’s usually done to investors’ ultimate detriment.  In 1987, it was high equity prices in general; the article I cite was written just eight days before Black Monday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 22.6% in a single day.  A dozen years later, the new thing people were excited about was the prospect that the Internet would change the world.  This belief served to justify ultra-high prices (and p/e ratios of infinity) for digital and e-commerce stocks, many of which went on to lose more than 90% of their value over the next year or so. Importantly, however, Templeton allowed that things might really be different 20% of the time.  On rare occasions, something fundamental does change, with significant implications for investing.  Given the pace of developments these days – especially in technology – I imagine things might genuinely be different more often than they were in Templeton’s day. Anyway, that’s all preamble.  My reason for writing this memo is that, while most people I speak with seem to agree with many of my individual observations in Sea Change, few have expressly agreed with my overall conclusion and said, “I think you’re right: We might be seeing a significant and possibly lasting change in the investment environment.”  This memo’s main message is that the changes I described in Sea Change aren’t just usual cyclical fluctuations; rather, taken together, they represent a sweeping alteration of the investment environment, calling for significant capital reallocation.

gonna go out in a limb and predict a market crash (i.e. djia down more than 10%) eight days from the publication of this memo (i.e. next thursday the 19th)

[soultiesfinancials]

My total UNBIASED and DATA backed Prediction for the next 2-4 years for the United States

2024-2028 TRUMP BINGO CARD (Check all Events to get BINGO)

THIS WILL NOT BE A SMOOTH SAILING OR AN OVERNIGHT CHANGE WE ARE ALL DREAMING OF.

- The FEDs said today that theres a 57% chance of Recession happening within 10 months (Democrats to blame this on Trump and dub him as The Recession President bc he left with a mild Pandemic Recession & Now stepping in with the economy having a 57% chance of Recession happening in 2025)

- Tax Cut Jobs Act from 2017 that's about to expire to be expanded by Trump but really Congress cannot work on this until February 2025 the soonest maybe May 2025

- Trump will accelerate innovations like Unsupervised Self Driving cars & Robots

- Trump's Tariffs plan are being blown out of proportion. I expect this to happen by the 2nd half of his term. He will not implement this when it can hurt the Economy early during his term if he let his ego take over this will be a mistake (Intention here is good for the Country's GDP but this cannot be rushed in my opinion)

- Inflation Reduction Act will result to layoffs by 2025 and Democrats will use this against him but it was indeed them who's been borrowing SHORT TERM printing money to fund this bill. Reverse Repo is near Zero as of today while the FEDs are cutting Rates. Its crushing the USD and they will use this against him.

- Jobs Recession that will be caused by the FEDs will be blamed on Trump

- Democrats will try to take power away (or some) from Trump by his midterm bc of Recession

- Trump takes office Jan 20, 2025 - Jobs Report February 7, 2025 that will likely show negative in Government & Payrolls Data only 18 days later. Markets will freak out that will show that the Economy is walking into a Recession or already in a Recession. These Jan - March pain we are about to have is still under Biden's provision. The BLS have been hiding real JOB Reports and now that the election is over, alot of their fake "Jobs" that they created will VANISH! (Im 99.99% sure this will happen bc we will see Seasonal Layoffs specially after the holidays)

- As fears of recession rises, Trump's ego will kick in and demand FEDs to cut rates rapidly (this will be a mistake) This will possibly bring back STIMULUS that will NOT be inflationary but DEFLATIONARY

- STIMULUS - I can see this happening tax cuts, cheap loans, new real estate tax credits while housing market slows and no one will afford buying a new home

- Stimulus will not be the answer, FEDs will cut rates quick Stocks will crash, more job losses and he will be blamed but in reality it is the FEDs fault. This is by design

- FEDs will capitulate! By design they will cut rates back to ZERO! Stocks will crash and FEDs buys all in (And this is when I turn BULLISH!!!)

- By the end of Trump's term, Americans realize that it is not his fault and that this Recession, Debt Crisis and Capitulation was all by design and 2028 Office remains RED! Hopefully JD Vance in 2028 and NOT Donald Trump!

[blockinsider]

Bitcoin Surges Past $68K: Investor Optimism Rises Ahead of Anticipated Fed Rate Cut Amid 2024 US Elections

Key Points

Bitcoin (BTC) price rebounds, trading at about $68,486, anticipating a bullish run due to potential Fed rate cut.

Technical analysis shows Bitcoin needs to consistently close above the $70K-$72.7K range to enter a parabolic phase.

Bitcoin (BTC) has regained its rising momentum, opening the last week of October on a bullish note. The leading cryptocurrency surged about 2% in the last 24 hours to trade at approximately $68,486 on Monday, October 28, during the mid-European session. As October draws to a close, the probability of Bitcoin initiating the next phase of the crypto bull run has significantly increased.

Technical Analysis and Predictions

From a technical viewpoint, the Bitcoin price needs to close consistently above the resistance range between $70K and $72.7K to enter its much-anticipated parabolic phase. Since March 2024 to date, Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating in a similar pattern to last year between March and October.

If history is any guide, Bitcoin is well-positioned to rally towards a new all-time high in the coming weeks and potentially extend into the first half of 2025. However, if Bitcoin’s price consistently closes below the established support level of around $66.5K, the bearish outlook may dominate in the short term, possibly leading to further crypto market declines before a potential rebound.

Fundamental Factors Favoring Bullish Outlook

Bitcoin’s price has recorded noticeable growth since the crypto market crash on August 5, driven by increasing demand from large investors. Over the past four weeks, the supply of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges has decreased by more than 40K, equivalent to over $3 billion.

The significant drop in Bitcoin supply on centralized exchanges in the past seven months to approximately 2.39 million is largely attributed to the US spot BTC ETFs. Recent market data reveals that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net cash inflow of over $3.4 billion in the past three weeks.

Bitcoin’s price is also projected to follow the ongoing Gold bull run, which has also influenced major stock indexes.

Next week, US voters will decide on the next President for the next four years, with many crypto investors speculating on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. According to the latest presidential polls from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, Trump has a 66% chance of winning the elections next week, while his closest challenger Kamala Harris has a 33% chance of winning.

Moreover, the US Federal Reserve is expected to implement another rate cut next week to improve the country’s economic outlook. The decision will largely depend on this week’s employment data.

[dailynewsbulletin]

Top 10 common mistakes made easily by investors to avoid in stock market

Instability in the stock market raises risks. A number of common mistakes that can be easily avoided caused by many investors to lose money on the stock market. So, below are the errors to avoid it

Uncertainty is raised by stock market volatility. It becomes impossible for investors to predict whether the markets will recover or crash again. Commonly, investors could do without vulnerability and will quite often overreact when such circumstances emerge. Likewise, panic raises errors. Additionally, mistakes frequently result in losses in a volatile market.

Mistakes made by investors to avoid in stock market

Investing without a purpose

Quite possibly the greatest mistake investors make is investing without a purpose or objective. Without a clear understanding of their investment objectives, risk tolerance, or time horizon, they enter the market. Instead of adhering to a well-defined strategy, they end up making impulsive decisions based on emotions.

To stay away from this error, you must begin by laying out particular investment objectives, like putting something aside for retirement or an initial instalment on a house. Consider how much you can afford to lose without affecting your financial well-being to determine your risk tolerance. The next step is to develop a strategy that is in line with your objectives and risk tolerance, as well as a time horizon for your investments.

Pursuing short-term profits

A number of players in the market make the mistake of putting too much emphasis on short-term gains, which can result in hasty choices and a lack of patience. They ignore the company’s long-term prospects in their pursuit of the recent hot stock or trend. To keep away from this error, you must focus on long term effective investing and consider the essentials of the organizations you are putting resources into.

One must focus on organizations with a strong monetary record combined with a background marked by development and an upper hand in their industry. Keep in mind that, despite its short-term volatility, the share market has a long-term tendency to rise.

Chasing hot stocks

Investing into stocks in view of their new performance can be risky. It is significant to assess a stock’s long-term potential as opposed to simply focusing on its new performance.

Trying to time the market

Few investors likewise wrongly attempt to time the market, which includes trading stocks in view of momentary patterns in the stock exchange. This can be challenging and can result in losses and missed opportunities. Instead of attempting to time the market, an investor should concentrate on a long-term investment strategy to avoid this error.

Not doing sufficient research

Costly mistakes can result from investing in stock without researching the company’s balance sheet, management quality, competition, or industry trends. Market watchers believe that rather than relying solely on the opinions of others, investors should evaluate each investment opportunity independently.

Not exploring financial portfolio

Another common error is neglecting to expand your portfolio. Investing into a single stock or area can be unsafe as it opens you to the performance of that one investment. If that investment performs ineffectively, your whole portfolio can suffer.

To keep away from this error, you must expand your portfolio by putting resources into different stocks, bonds, and other asset classes. This may assist you in spreading your risk among various investments and minimizing the impact of any one investment on your portfolio as a whole.

Following the crowd

Investing into stocks exclusively in light of the fact that others are doing so can prompt unfortunate results. Instead of just following the herd, it’s critical to evaluate each investment opportunity on its own merits.

Letting emotions come on the way of investments

Pursuing speculation choices in view of feelings like fear, greed or trust can lead to unfortunate results. When making investment decisions, investors should keep their rationalism and discipline.

Avoiding stop-loss

A stop-loss order is an instrument that permits investors to restrict their possible losses via automatically selling a stock when it arrives at a predetermined cost. Neglecting to set a stop-loss order can bring about huge misfortunes.

Over trading

An investor’s return may suffer as a result of high transaction costs and taxes caused by excessive trading. It is crucial to have a disciplined way to deal with financial planning and keep away from over the top trading.

[coineagle]

Fear Strikes Crypto Market: Could Bitcoin Plummet to $40K?

Key Points

Bitcoin [BTC] experienced a significant decline, nearing a drop below $50k for the first time since February.

External macroeconomics, including a crash in Japan and Taiwan’s stock markets, have contributed to the crypto market’s downturn.

Bitcoin’s value is nearing a decline below $50k, a value not seen since February of this year. This comes as global stock markets take a hit, particularly in Japan and Taiwan.

Bitcoin’s Decline

The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant decrease in the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin [BTC] taking the hardest hit. Currently, BTC is trading at $50436, reflecting a 16.21% decline on daily charts and a 27% drop on weekly charts.

This substantial decrease has led to speculation among traders and analysts regarding BTC’s future and the cause of this major price drop. After falling to $53k, investors with long positions of over $600 million were forced out, resulting in a $300B total decline in the crypto market.

If BTC falls further to $50k, more than $6B long positions could be forced out. This price decline has increased bearish sentiment, with traders rushing to buy the dip. However, data suggests investors and traders are less interested in the dip.

External Factors Impacting BTC

Over the past week, global markets have faced a fear of recession following the Federal Reversal’s failure to cut rates. Rising U.S. debts have led to higher outflows from the crypto markets, particularly from ETFs due to market uncertainty.

The Japanese market crash, which saw a drop of over 8% in 24 hours, has also impacted the crypto market. The plummeting global stock markets have pushed BTC down, with Japan’s stock market experiencing its biggest single-day drop.

Taiwan’s stock market has also suffered its worst day in 57 years, adding to the fears of a recession in the U.S. economy.

Price Chart Predictions

BTC has declined by 17% in the past 24 hours, continuing a month-long decline. Over the past 30 days, BTC has declined by 5%, resulting in a market cap drop below $1T to $990B.

Analysis shows that BTC is experiencing a strong downward momentum. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) indicates a sustained downtrend, with the positive index at 26 sitting below the negative index at 29.

Open Interest has also declined from $37B to $31B, indicating that leveraged positions are being forcefully closed. Increased liquidation for long positions suggests that holders lack confidence in BTC’s current direction.

If the current market conditions persist and BTC closes below $50670 on daily charts, it could find its next support around $47779.

[marylandmetal]

Ask the AI

We asked a new AI engine we are working on the following question:

"So I got burned in the stock market in 2008. Do you think times are better now? I mean, the Dow went over 40k. Doesn't it seem high? Could we be in for a crash? speak like a prophet."

The Response:

"Gazing into the mists of financial future is akin to reading the signs of the times; one must look at the currents beneath the surface to predict where the tides may turn.

Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring above 40,000 points might stir the hearts of men with both awe and trepidation. Here lies wisdom in recognizing that markets ascend like the peaks of Olympus, yet can also descend into the valleys of despair.

Consider these omens:

Economic Cycles: History whispers of cycles, expansions followed by contractions. Economies breathe in and out, and the market's high altitude might suggest it is taking a deep breath before the next exhale. But the timing of such a cycle is known only to the fates.

Monetary Policy: The oracles of central banks have flooded the world with liquidity, pushing asset prices toward celestial heights. When these waters recede, as they must through tightening policy, will the market's ark find itself on Mount Ararat or submerged beneath the waves?

Valuations: Stocks, like fruits on the vine, can become overripe, their prices swollen beyond the nourishment of their underlying fundamentals. When valuations stretch thin, the market becomes vulnerable to the prick of unforeseen thorns.

Global Events: The tapestry of worldly affairs is woven with threads of uncertainty. Political strife, pandemic waves, and unforeseen calamities can unravel the sturdiest of market looms.

Innovation and Growth: Yet not all is written in the stars with foreboding. The ingenuity of mankind spawns new technologies and industries, driving growth that can lift economies and markets to defy the gravity of past woes.

Investor Sentiment: The crowd's fervor can drive markets like the winds of Poseidon, but the wise investor knows that sentiment is a fickle tempest, capable of turning calm seas into maelstroms without warning.

So, could we be perched upon the precipice of a great fall? Perhaps. But also, we may witness the market climb to greater zeniths still, carried forth by the eagles of innovation and prosperity.

For those whose fortunes were once lost in the tempests of 2008, heed this counsel:

Diversify: Spread your seeds across many fields, that not all may be lost to a single frost.

Long-term Perspective: Build your temple upon the bedrock of long-term investments, rather than the shifting sands of speculation.

Risk Management: Do not tempt the fates with leverage beyond what your heart can bear to lose. Prudence is the better part of valor.

Continuous Learning: As the Oracle at Delphi advises, "Know thyself." Understand your risk tolerance, and keep learning from the market's teachings.

In the grand tableau, markets will always rise and fall; this is the eternal dance of the financial cosmos. Whether now is the moment of zenith or but a step on the path to further heights, only time shall reveal. Invest with wisdom, and may the foresight of the prophet guide your way."

[mariacallous]

The global mini-crash on Monday, when stocks dived before largely recovering, can’t be pinned down to one cause alone. But one serious culprit was a long-standing foreign exchange strategy that suddenly turned into a disaster as Japan’s central bank and government tried to pull the yen out of an increasingly destructive nosedive.

The “yen carry trade” is a straightforward maneuver: borrow money in a country with low interest rates, such as Japan (or Switzerland), and invest in currencies with a higher interest rate, such as the U.S. dollar. If all goes well, the result is a cost-free source of profit. Not surprisingly, this has become very popular with financial traders, businesses, and even individuals who have used the technique to pay for mortgages in their home countries.

At current levels, an investor can borrow yen for around 0.5 percent and find a secure U.S. investment at around 5.5 percent. This means a 4 percent gain with no investment of your own. The only potential problem is if the exchange rate between the two countries starts to change. In this case, a stronger yen means that you will need more dollars to pay back the loan, potentially wiping out the gain and leaving expanding losses.

“These violent market moves will take place when participants in the ‘crowded trade,’ in this case yen carry, all try to get out of the pool at the same time. Moves on the downside can be swift and violent and at times can lead to changes in market psychology,” said Ichiro Sekimitsu, a former veteran trader in interest rate derivatives. “A necessary condition for the trade to continue is low volatility, so the predictability of the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance, along with an underperformance of the Japanese economy, probably helped build the trade.”

All of this came unstuck on Monday as a fast-rising yen fed into a declining stock market, which in turn sparked a greater unwinding of what are known as “yen shorts”—bets that the yen will further decline. That sent the yen sharply higher in value as traders quickly closed out their positions. In mid-July, the dollar was worth more than 161 yen, but by the end of the Asian trading day on Monday, it stood at 142 yen, a 12 percent fall in value. That would easily wipe out a year’s worth of yen carry trade interest payments. Small wonder that there was an increasingly hectic race for the exits.

The catalyst was a tightening in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) just a week earlier, on July 31. The BOJ took markets by surprise with a double-barreled approach of raising the target interest rate on Japanese government bonds and announcing that it was sharply reducing the amount of bonds it buys as part of its efforts to control interest rates.

The changes appear small in comparison to the situation elsewhere. The new target rate for 10-year government bonds is still just 0.25 percent, up from zero to 0.10 percent previously and is miniscule when compared with the current 4 percent rate for U.S. Treasurys.

But the action bore a weighty meaning, breaking 10 years of an easy-money policy that had been meant to cause the very inflation that is now emerging as a problem.

BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda talked tough about the changes in July. “If the data shows economic conditions are on track, and if such data accumulates, we would of course take the next step,” he said, a clear signal to the markets that higher rates could be on the way.

The actions were taken as it became clear that a strikingly weak yen was pushing inflation higher and reducing the purchasing power of Japanese consumers. With the core consumer price index at 2.6 percent, it would seem far from a crisis.

But the impact on the average person has been palpable, with inflation outpacing earnings for 26 of the past 27 months. A country that had long sought inflation turned out to dislike it in practice, and increasingly worried government officials have been putting pressure on the central bank to do something. With Japan importing virtually all of its energy and most of its food, higher import costs bleed directly into the real economy and consumer spending.

Concerns over higher prices are described as a key factor in the low approval rating of around 25 percent for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government. Kishida must run for reelection as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September, making the political woes of inflation even more palpable. If he loses, he will automatically need to step down as prime minister.

In its attempt to rein in the yen’s decline, Japan has already tried massive intervention in the foreign exchange market, spending a record 5.92 trillion yen (some $36.9 billion at the time) in yen buying on April 29, with smaller purchases on May 1, according to government figures.

But if the BOJ’s actions were strong, the impact on the Japanese stock market, which has been near all-time highs (it only took 34 years to get past the previous high), was equally strong. The Nikkei 225 stock index fell a stunning 12 percent, the second-largest percentage fall in history and a decline of 27 percent from its peak on July 11.

With signs of panic in the air, aided by a running chain of clickbait headlines about a market crash, the Tokyo decline fed into a perfect storm of negative news that included a weak U.S. jobs report and news that iconic investor Warren Buffett had unloaded a large part of his stake in corporate icon Apple. Never mind that the U.S. losses for the day turned out to be minor, despite the flash headlines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing with a loss of 2.6 percent, hardly the market plunge the headlines would suggest. Positive news such as a relatively strong corporate earnings season was brushed under the rug, and gloom largely prevailed.

The fact that much of this was unwound within 24 hours is testament to the tenuous nature of the selloff. Tokyo traders decided they had been all wrong and proceeded to push up the Nikkei by 10.2 percent, the fourth-largest one-day gain on record.

By Wednesday, the Japanese market was up again, with the Nikkei rising 1.2 percent, and the yen had erased much of its gains. This came after BOJ Deputy Gov. Shinichi Uchida tried to put the genie back in the bottle, saying that the central bank will not raise rates further if there is market turmoil.

While his remarks were credited with calming the market for now, the band-aid cure is likely to have its own repercussions in the future. With his words seemingly contradicting from the vow by his boss a week earlier on raising rates if necessary, the remarks looked like a panic reaction or a signal that the BOJ is divided at the top. “That kind of communication undermines the credibility of the Bank of Japan. For the financial market, the uncertainty over the future of monetary policy has increased,” said Takahide Kiuchi, an executive economist at Nomura Research Institute. “Uchida said too much, and the BOJ now has a problem in its communication strategy.”

That credibility will likely become critical in the weeks ahead. Most analysts say the market shakeout is far from over, an analysis backed by data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission that shows the total value of speculative yen shorts have decreased from $14.5 billion at beginning of July to $6 billion recently, suggesting there is more to be done if the yen starts strengthening again.

Kiuchi forecasts that the yen will revert to its “fair value” of around 115 yen to the dollar over the next three years. “The correction phase is still in the middle, depending on the U.S. economic situation. But it was only a crisis for Japan, not the global equity market,” he said. But for those in the yen carry trade, it means there is still a long way to go and likely more volatility to come.

[therealtradertrainer]

How I predicted the market crashing and why it doesn't matter

How I predicted the market crashing and why it doesn't matter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOF7iU7pxH0 👇Join the Discord 👇 https://ift.tt/tIinVbW ============================ 🎯 What you'll learn in this video: ✅ Why the stock market is pulling back ✅ Why closed all my tech positions and switched into BRKB and HD last week ✅ How the market will move over the next 6 months ✅ Why "predicting" often leads to losses ============================== 📺 Other Videos You WON'T Want to Miss: ▶️ How to Become a Top 1% Day Trader in 17 Minutes (3 PROVEN STEPS) 👉 https://youtu.be/ndEDUvpxOWw?si=0J19R5vdx5j9unhf ▶️ I Tried Everything in Day Trading (Only ONE Thing Worked!) 👉 https://youtu.be/URqNrOaCU14?si=xngqCu8TKh1vu3N9 ▶️ I'm Exposing the Trading Industry | 4 Biggest Lies Holding You Back 👉 https://youtu.be/R20n-LDxL4E?si=OzX812McB_nfQ-r_ ▶️ How to Become a Profitable Day Trader FAST | Ultimate 7 Step Guide to Master Day Trading 👉 https://youtu.be/8QwyCeaXs48?si=86bqa-JBzGZTE_eH ============================= 💼 Business Inquiries: For collaboration and sponsorship opportunities, please contact my team at: 📩 Email: info@TheRealTraderTrainer.com ============================= ✅ About TheRealTraderTrainer: In 2020 I lost my life savings twice In 2021 I overcomplicated everything and decided that when I became profitable I would help as many traders as possible. In 2022 I simplified my trading and became profitable. In 2023 I lived as a nomad to save money and spent thousands of dollars and over 1,000 hours making YouTube videos to help struggling traders. But Youtube wouldn’t push my videos... So now I work with traders directly to make the biggest impact. Whatever your dream is... chase it with everything you've got. ===================== #daytrading #tradingstrategy #learntrading #riskmanagement #stockmarket #tradingrules Disclaimer: The content provided on this YouTube channel is for educational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended as personalized financial advice. The information and opinions expressed on this channel are based on publicly available information and our own analysis. We make no representations or warranties as to its accuracy or completeness. Viewers should always conduct their own research and analysis and seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed on this channel do not reflect the views of any organizations or institutions we may be affiliated with. We are not responsible for any losses that may occur as a result of using any of the information provided in this channel. Copyright Disclaimer: Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favor of fair use © TheRealTraderTrainer via TheRealTraderTrainer https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMZjkOXOmG7MuVVJUQWRh3w July 18, 2024 at 06:53AM

[arpov-blog-blog]

SIMON ROSENBERG

JUN 25, 2024

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

The Economic Madness of Donald, The Success of President Biden A few weeks back we shared with you an analysis from our good friend Dr. Rob Shapiro of the economic impact of Trump’s mass deportation plans:

Trump’s plans for mass deportation would be an economic disaster. Besides being cruel, deporting 11 million unauthorized immigrants would cause labor shortages and slash national wage and salary income, likely triggering a recession and reigniting inflation

A few days ago Dr. Shapiro released an analysis of Trump’s plans to increase tariffs and cut the income tax:

Trump’s tax-by-tariff plan would enrich the wealthy, cripple the economy, and send inflation soaring. The latest crackpot idea from the presumptive Republican nominee would throw us back to the federal revenue model from the Gilded Age

So, is it really possible, that Trump is intending to spike inflation, cause massive labor shortages, throw the economy into recession and do enormous harm to the global economic system that has driven prosperity here and around the world?

Well, yes. That’s what he wants to do if he gets into the White House next year.

In Trump January Trump said he hoped the economy would crash:

Former President Donald Trump predicted the US economy would “crash,” saying he hoped it would do so within the next year – before he would assume the Oval Office should he win a second term in November. “When there’s a crash, I hope it’s going to be during this next 12 months because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover. The one president – I just don’t want to be Herbert Hoover,” Trump said in an interview that aired Monday on the right-wing platform Lindell TV. The US stock market crashed during former President Herbert Hoover’s first year in office in 1929, which signaled the beginning of the Great Depression.

[whereareroo]

CLIP IT

WF THOUGHTS (5/6/24).

What’s the best way to teach your kids and grandkids about history? All parents and grandparents should focus on that question.

When I was in the 11th grade, in 1976, my American History teacher was a creative guy. To understand history, he urged us to mentally put ourselves into a “time machine” and travel back to whatever event we were studying. He urged us to look at historical events from the point of view of the actual participants in the event. What were they thinking? Why?

My teacher frequently used newspaper clippings to teach us. His theory was that newspaper clippings capture the moment and provide a window into the thinking of the people who were alive at the time of the relevant historical event.

Once, we spent a whole week on newspaper clippings. He asked us to talk to our parents and grandparents, and to bring in important newspaper clippings that they had saved. In that era, all parents and grandparents saved important newspaper clippings. We spent a week with the clippings.

I remember being amazed at the newspaper clippings that folks had saved. There was stuff from the WWI era (1914-1918). There was a clipping from 1920, when the 19th Amendment was ratified and women won the right to vote. There was a clipping about the great stock market crash in 1929. There was all sorts of stuff about WWII (1939-1945), especially Pearl Harbor, D-Day, V-E Day, and V-J Day. I brought in some clippings that my Mom had saved about JFK’s assassination and his funeral.

Election Day is November 5, 2024. It’s only 6 months away.

The approach of Election Day has me thinking about newspaper clippings. The 2024 presidential election could change the course of American history. In fact, it could become one of the most consequential events in American history. Depending upon the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, our children and grandchildren may live in an America that’s very, very different. In 25 or 50 years, they might be asking: “What the hell happened in 2024?” Or, they might be asking: “How did our parents and grandparents let that happen?”

Starting now, and for the next six months, I think we should all keep a “clippings file” about the 2024 presidential election. When the election is over, keep your file in a safe place. Sooner or later, your kids or grandkids will want to see your file. They’ll want to see what caused the disaster or, if they’re lucky, how the disaster was avoided. You have an obligation to educate future generations.

Your clippings file will be particularly important if Trump wins and steers America towards autocracy and White Christian Nationalism. Your file will show that Trump’s game plan was totally predictable. He is very open about his autocratic, anti-democratic, tendencies. Your file will show that America didn’t do enough to stop Trump. Your clippings file will be depressing, but it will accurately reflect the historic election of 2024.

Of course, we don’t get newspapers anymore. Don’t let that stop you. You can make a “clippings file” anyway. For the next six months, print insightful articles and news columns about the election. Focus on stuff that discusses how Trump will change America if he wins. Put the pile of paper in a box and keep it. Someday, your children and grandchildren will thank you. You are creating a box filled with important history.

Here’s a tip to get you started. Search: “Time Magazine If Trump Wins.” You’ll see a link to a Time piece entitled “Donald Trump on What His Second Term Would Look Like.” Read the piece and print it. It’s a good “clipping” to get your file started. Keep your eye out for similar articles and for articles that analyze the big stakes in this election. Try to “clip” a few articles every month. Our children and grandchildren may end up living in “Trump’s America.” Even if it hurts, they deserve the historical truth. America has the power to stop Trump in 2024. I don’t know what the outcome will be. Either way, I’m building a clippings file that will explain the final six months of the election cycle. My grandchildren will eventually study the election of 2024. When they do, I hope they’ll benefit from my box of history.

Good luck with your clippings file. Stick with it. Remember, you’re building a box of very important history.