#liu association south section 1
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propaganda:
✅️ "Listen, I would smash Xiao but only if Lowell was on board with the idea (and in a threesome kind of way) and vice versa. I respect their relationship but boy are both of them hot. Especially Xiao, E.G.O or not."
❓️ "pass on Lowell and xiao assuming it’s a 1 on 1 thing because I am not cukcing them they deserve the world. But if it’s both of them at the same time thats a different story"
✅️ "You just know that Lowell and Xiao would be a package deal kinda thing, looking for a third person to go with, and that only makes everything so much better because it would be the most crazy passionate thing you've ever been included in and you would never be the same."
✅️ "The entirety of the Liu are bisexual icons and they're all just as hot as the burn gimmick implies, I need all of them."
✅️ "Best threesome you'd ever have tbh"
✅️ "For the people who mentioned the fact it would be a amazing threesome with her and Lowell please keep talking cause you are right"
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Summary of all mentions of members of Hong Lu's family in the game + comparison with the original book
Summary:
Mention of his “family” in general in the game
Mention of the family elders in the game + comparison with the original work
Mention of his grandmother in the game + comparison with the original work
Mention of his grandfather in the game + comparison with the original work
Mention of his father in the game + comparison with the original work
Mention of his siblings in the game + comparison with the original work
Mention of his brother (Jia Huan) in the game
I wanted to recap all the times Hong Lu talks about his family or a particular member of his family while at the same time comparing them to their version of the original novel by giving some info on the latter (assuming that Hong Lu = Jia Baoyu ). I excluded from this list the uncles and aunts by marriage as well as Baoyu's cousins for various reasons (too long otherwise, not mentioned...) but I will perhaps do a part 2 to talk about them.
Was also excluded, the entire branch which stems from Jia Yan (the brother of Jia Yuan (the father of Jia Daishan, the husband of Grandmother Jia)), a branch which remains important since it is this one who leads to the actual Head of the Ningguo Mansion (Jia Zhen) when the story takes place. But since, they are distant relatives/cousins of Jia Baoyu, that was taking me too far and so I had to remove them from this list. But I still wanted to mention it since it is an important branch of the family
The Jia family is mainly composed of 4 great families: the Jia Family, the Xue Family, the Wang Family and the Shi family in other words those who were born with the name Jia and those who joined the family by marriage / alliance / by being the brother / sister of one of the grooms… (born Xue or Wang or Shi).
There are also other families like the Xing or Lin family joining the Jia family but whose name appears (very) less often and which are also not considered as one of the great families of the novel.
This list of family members is made in relation to the place they occupy in relation to Jia Baoyu.
I/Mention of his “family” in general in the game
LCB sinner, chatter#3
Abn. logs, Pink shoes: lacking data
Abn. Logs, Sign of Roses: level 1
Abn. Logs, Sign of Roses: level 3
Liu Association South Section 5, story
Liu Association South Section 5, story
K Corp. Class 3 excision staff, post-uptie chat 2
W Corp. L2 Cleanup agent, Idle
Main story, Canto II, episode: 3
Detour Tales, Chapter 5.5, Miracle in district 20, episode: 13
Main story, Canto V, episode: 2
Hong Lu’s promo pre-limbus company release (Hong Lu also mentions the family’s chef’s side dishes but I didn’t include it because it was not about his family specifically)
II/Mention of the family elders in the game + comparison with the original work
W Corp. L2 Cleanup agent, story
W Corp. L2 Cleanup agent, story
Main story, Canto IV, episode: 27
To tell the truth, I don't really know what the term "elders" is supposed to encompass in this context in the sense that, I don't know whether or not parents and/or uncles/aunts should be included in addition to the grandparents.
In my opinion the term "elders" refers to all the generations who are above the one who uses this term (in this case Hong Lu / Jia Baoyu) so I would tend to want to count the parents and uncles / aunts but I cannot say this with certainty.
I will therefore base myself on my interpretation so that it will allow me to talk about more characters of the novel but do not hesitate to let me know what this term encompasses!
1st generation:
Grand parents:
Jia Daishan:
Son of Jia Yuan
first Duke of Rong
husband of Grandmother Jia
father of Jia She, Jia Min and Jia Zheng
grandfather of the three first Spring Ladies (Jia Yuanchun, Jia Tanchun and Jia Yingchun), Jia Zhu, Baoyu, Daiyu, Jia Huan, Jia Lian
died before the beginning of the novel, reason why we don’t know much about him
Grandma Jia (the Dowager):
Daughter of the Marquis Shi of Jinling
Wife of Jia Daishan
Grandmother Jia is a generation above the oldest member of the Rongguo Mansion (Jia Jing)
Thus, members of the Jia family all defer to her
For further information, refer to the paragraph dedicated to her below
Great uncle(s):
Dowager’s brother:
We don't know much about the Dowager's brother
He is Grandmother Jia’s brother
He is the father of Shi Ding and Shi Xiangyun's Father
He is Shi Xiangyun’s grandfather
died before the beginning of the novel, reason why we don’t know much about him
2nd generation:
Parents:
Jia Zheng:
Jia Zheng is the second and youngest son of Jia Daishan and Grandmother Jia.
He has a wife, Lady Wang, and two concubines: Zhao (with whom he had two children) and Zhou
For further information, refer to the paragraph dedicated to him below
Lady Wang:
Daughter of one of the four most prominent families of Jinling (Wang)
Primary wife of Jia Zheng
Mother of Baoyu and Yuanchun
Because of her purported ill-health, she hands over the running of the household to her niece, Wang Xifeng
In the eyes of her servants, she appears as a statue of a lifeless Buddha.
Although generous, she is described as without will or conviction.
Lady Wang seems kind and caring but can be cruel and ruthless when her authority is questioned.
She shows excessive concern about her son Baoyu's romantic relationships and closely monitors his maids.
Lady Wang plays a role in the death of Baoyu's maid, Qingwen, due to her suspicion and cruelty toward maids she perceives as threats to her son's virtue.
Uncles:
Jia She:
Elder son of the Dowager
Big brother of Jia Zheng and Jia Min
Husband of Xing furen
He has 2 concubines: Yingchun’s mother and Jia Cong's mother
Father of Jia Lian, Jia Yingchun and Jia Cong
He inherited the title of Marquis Rong
He is treacherous and greedy, as well as seductive/woomanizer.
He feels jealous towards his younger brother, favored by their mother.
He was later stripped of his title and banished by the government.
Father of Wang Ren and Wang Xifeng:
Lady Wang’s brother
Also brother of Wang Ziteng and Wang Zisheng
Father of Wang Ren and Wang Xifeng:
Wang Ziteng:
Lady Wang’s brother
Also brother of Wang Xifeng’s father and Wang Zisheng
Wang Zisheng:
Lady Wang’s brother
Also brother of Wang Xifeng’s father and Wang Ziteng
Aunts:
Jia Min:
Daughter of Jia Daishan and Grandmother Jia
Sister of Jia She and Jia Zheng
Wife of Lin Ruhai
Mother of Lin Daiyu
Xue Yima also known as Aunt Xue:
Sister of Lady Wang
Sister of Wang Ziteng, Wang Zisheng and Wang Xifeng’s father
Mother to Xue Pan and Xue Baochai
She is generally kind and affable.
However, she struggles to control her rambunctious son.
III/ Mention of his grandmother in the game + comparison with the original work
K Corp. Class 3 excision staff, story
K Corp. Class 3 excision staff, story
K Corp. Class 3 excision staff, story
K Corp. Class 3 excision staff, story
W Corp. L2 Cleanup agent, chatter #1
K Corp. Class 3 excision staff, post-uptie chat 1
Detour Tales, Chapter 5.5, S.E.A, episode: 4
If Hong Lu is indeed the equivalent of Jia Baoyu in the world of limbus company, Hong Lu's grandmother should be the one known as Grandmother Jia, née Shi:
Grandmother Jia:
Also called Dowager Shi or simply the Dowager
She is the daughter of the Marquis Shi of Jinling
Grandmother Jia is a generation above the oldest member of the Rongguo Mansion (Jia Jing)
Main elder of the great family, she is the oldest and most respected authority of the Jia Clan
Of an enjoyable temperament, she does not intervene in the private lives of her children provided that they do not disturb her, even if they have become debauched or high rollers.
It was she who arranged for Daiyu, her only "outside" (i.e., maternal) grandchild, to come to the Rongguo Mansion
She spoils her grandson Baoyu whom she carries in adoration
Despite this, she does not approve of his love for Daiyu
She is the one who supports the marriage arranged by Sister Pheonix (Wang Xifeng) between Baoyu and Baochai
She will die at the ripe old age of 83
Maybe it's just me, but she seems to be one of the people if not the person who pays the most attention to Jia Baoyu's jade, reminding him to take care of it, asking him if he knows where it is his jade when he is not wearing it, paying attention to the stone...
IV/ Mention of his grandfather in the game + comparison with the original work
Detour Tales, Chapter 5.5, Yield my flesh to claim their bones, episode: 4
Abn. Logs, Pink shoes: lacking data
Hong Lu’s promo pre-limbus company release (yéyé" (爷爷) meaning "grandfather" or “grandpa”. It is an affectionate term used to refer to one's grandfather in Mandarin.)
So we don’t really know which of his two grandfathers Hong Lu is referring to but knowing that in the novel only his paternal grandfather is mentioned and died before the novel begins, I think the "grandfather" Hong is talking about is Jia Daishan (and that he probably died in the world of Limbus Company too)
Jia Daishan:
Son of Jia Yuan
first Duke of Rong
husband of Grandmother Jia
father of Jia She, Jia Min and Jia Zheng
grandfather of the three first Spring Ladies (Jia Yuanchun, Jia Tanchun and Jia Yingchun), Jia Zhu, Baoyu, Daiyu, Jia Huan, Jia Lian
died before the beginning of the novel, reason why we don't know much about him
V/ Mention of his father in the game + comparison with the original work
LCB sinner, chatter#1
If Hong Lu is indeed the equivalent of Jia Baoyu in the world of limbus company, Hong Lu's father should be Jia Zheng:
Jia Zheng:
He is the second and youngest son of Jia Daishan and Grandmother Jia.
He has a wife, Lady Wang, and two concubines: Zhao (with whom he had two children) and Zhou
Father of Jia Zhu (deceased), Jia Yuanchun, Jia Baoyu, Jia Tanchun and Jia Huan
Confucianism had a great influence on him: he is a Confucian scholar who tries to be an upright and decent person, he fulfills his duties of filial piety towards the Dowager, and wants to educate his children strictly
Afraid his one surviving heir will turn bad, he imposes strict rules on his son (Jia Baoyu), and uses occasional corporal punishment.
Jia Baoyu is afraid of him
He has the ambition to become a good civil servant
But he lacks experience and is easily deceived by others, which earns him a bad reputation.
VI/ Mention of his siblings in the game + comparison with the original work
Main story, Canto III, episode: 2
Detour Tales, Chapter 5.5, episode: 13
Abn. Logs, Pink shoes: lacking data
If Hong Lu is indeed supposed to be the Jia Baoyu of the world of Limbus Company, then, if we refer to the novel The Dream of the Red Room, Hong Lu should, like Baoyu, have 4 siblings:
Jia Zhu:
First son of Jia Zheng and Lady Wang
Big brother of Jia Baoyu and Jia Yuanchun and half-brother of Jia Tanchun and Jia Huan since they share the same father.
In the original novel, Jia Zhu is already dead prior to the action of the novel, so we know very little about him.
He had a son (Jia Lan) with Li Wan
Jia Yuanchun:
First female family member of the quartet of "Springs", first daughter of Jia Zheng and Lady Wang
Big sister of Jia Baoyu and Jia Yuanchun and half-sister of Jia Tanchun and Jia Huan since they share the same father.
She is about 10 years older than Baoyu.
She was raised by her grandmother
As an older sister, she taught Baoyu to read and write when he was liitle like his mother would have done.
Originally one of the ladies-in-waiting in the imperial palace, Yuanchun is later promoted to the highest ranking of imperial concubine "Xiande”, having impressed the Emperor with her virtue and intellect.
Despite her prestigious position, Yuanchun feels imprisoned within the four walls of the imperial palace.
She died at the age of forty, following an illness, in total isolation.
Jia Tanchun:
Third female family member of the quartet of "Springs", second daughter of Jia Zheng and his concubine, concubine Zhao
Big sister of Jia Huan and younger half-sister of Jia Zhu, Jia Yuanchun and Jia Baoyu since they share the same father.
The fact that she is the daughter of a concubine is still such a burden that she often claims Lady Wang, Baoyu's mother, as her own
Tanchun is a very clever and capable person, as much as Sister Phoenix for comparison
But, as the proverb says, "he who comes last will have fewer opportunities than the others", and this is what happened to her, because when her family declined she had not done much and she was sent to a distant region following an arranged marriage
Jia Huan:
Third son of Jia Zheng and his concubine, concubine Zhao
Little brother of Jia Tanchun and younger half-brother of Jia Zhu, Jia Yuanchun and Jia Baoyu since they share the same father.
More info just below
VII/ Mention of his brother (Jia Huan) in the game
Main story, Canto I, episode: 30
Main story, Canto V, episode: 18 (there we don’t know if he is talking about Jia Huan or not but there are not many other options and from what we can deduce from Jia Huan’s behaviour (in game and in the book too) it’s not very out off character)
Jia Huan:
Third male family member of the generation of the Jia household, son of Jia Zheng and his concubine, concubine Zhao
Little brother of Jia Tanchun and half-brother of Jia Zhu, Jia Yuanchun and Jia Baoyu since they share the same father.
He is described as ugly and clumsy
He and his mother are both reviled by the family, and he carries himself like a kicked dog.
He is very cunning but mediocre, he shows his malignant nature by spilling candle wax, intending to blind his half-brother Baoyu
That’s all! If I have forgotten any moments where Hong Lu talks about his family, don't hesitate to tell me and I will add it! Also, I tried to verify and proof-read all the info and everything should be correct but if I made a mistake feel free to point it out to me :)
#limbus company#hong lu lcb#project moon#dream of the red chamber spoilers#tw: blood#tw: mentions of abuse#not an analysis but how could I call that#a database??
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Hello everyone here.
This is the Liu fixer working here. I'm making this blog for two reasons.
The first reason is that none of my co-fixers(?) know how to navigate Tumblr or care about it. The other reason is that the Shi Association has someone doing this.
Now about me.
My name is Hono, I am a Grade 3 fixer, I get called by my superiors, a "possible color/Grade 1 fixer", I go by They/Them, and I am aroace.
Hello to the people on this platform. This is Hono's superior. I was asked to write something here and this is what I'll write.
^ Thanks, I guess. Also, they told me to make a poll for something, so here it is:
That is all, and see you all later.
//EGO status will be down below and eventually a picture, too.
EGO status: Incomplete
EGO: ?
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Guide to The City: Chapter 2: Fixer Associations
A sequel to This Post where i catalogued The City's workshops, this time covering the fixer associations! Please note this will contain unmarked spoilers for Library of Ruina and Limbus Company.
1: Hana Association
Language: Korean Specialties: Fixer grading and management, threat classification, elimination of Impurities. Uniform: White and gold-trimmed long coats over a white suit with a black tie, emblazoned with Taoist trigrams on the shoulders. Equipment: Black crystalline weapons that can be reformed instantly to different forms, making Hana fixers dangerous and unpredictable in close combat. Most often wielded as Crystal Spears (Mirinae, Olivier, Hana Association Fixers) but also as a Crystal Gauntlet (Harold) Known Fixers: Mirinae, Harold, Olivier (Library of Ruina) Hana handles the grading and licensing of fixers and fixer offices, grading them from 1-9 (1 being the strongest, 9 being the weakest). They also handle the classification of threats to the city. from least to most dangerous, the classifications are: Canard Urban Myth Urban Legend Urban Plague Urban Nightmare Star of the City Impuritas Civitatis Impurities are special threats, classified by The Head themselves for immediate extermination or removal. Hana only personally fights against Impurity level threats.
2: Zwei Association
Language: German Specialties: Defense, peacekeeping, and bodyguard duty. Uniform: Blue and yellow coats and suits. Equipment: One-handed swords (Zwei Crew), two-handed swords, or Zweihanders if you will (Julia, Isadora, Walter, Zwei South Section 4 Faust, Zwei South Section 4 Gregor), and stun batons (Zwei South Section 6 Sinclair, Zwei South Section 5 Rodion) Known Fixers: Julia, Isadora, Walter (Library of Ruina), Faust, Gregor, Rodion, Sinclair, Heathcliff, Ishmael, Don Quixote (Limbus Company, mirror World of the Zwei Association) Affiliated Offices: Streetlight Office Zwei will handle peacekeeping within their territory, but don't mistake them for police, you will need to pay them for their protection. They specialize in defense, of people, places, whatever you need them for.
3: Tres Association
Language: Spanish EDIT: thank you to josieblueart, i had completely forgotten! Specialty: Testing and licensing of Workshop products Tests and approves all products made by the Workshops of The City, likely also in charge of "dealing with" any unauthorized distribution.
4: Shi Association
Language: Japanese Specialities: Assassination Uniform: Black and Red (varies) Equipment: Red katana (all) Known Fixers: Yujin, Valentin, Tenma, Thelma (Library of Ruina), Don Quixote, Heathcliff, Ishmael (Limbus Company, mirror World of the Shi Association) Affiliated Offices: Full-Stop Office Shi specializes in stealth and assassination. If you really want someone dead, you pay the Shi. Due to the nature of the job Shi is frequently understaffed, and thus terminally overworked and injured.
5: Cinq Association
Language: French Specialties: Dueling Uniform: Blue cape over a black suit, with a feathered cap Equipment: Rapier (All) Known Fixers: Don Quixote, Outis, Sinclair (Limbus Company, World of the Cinq Association) Have a dispute with someone, but you're too weak to duel them yourself? Hire the Cinq association to duel them for you!
6: Liu Association
Language: Chinese Specialties: War Uniform: Black suit with gold accents and red coats Equipment: Swords (Liu Fixers), Gloves (Cecil, Mei, Chun, Miris, Liu Association South Section 4 Ishmael), Guandaos (Lowell, Xiao), and Gauntlets (Liu Association South Section 6 Gregor, Liu Association South Section 6 Meursault, Liu Association South Section 5 Hong Lu) that cause fire via friction, requiring skill to use effectively. Also their signature red coats, made with Moonstone, singularity of M corp, that defends against psychological attacks. Known Fixers: Cecil, Mei, Chun, Miris, Lowell, Xiao (Library of Ruina), Ishmael, Gregor, Meursault, Hong Lu (Limbus Company, World of the Liu Association) Liu Association specializes in open combat, having great numbers and skilled fighters wielding fire. Liu are called in when you need to fight an army... or a monster.
7: Seven Association
Language: English Specialties: Information gathering, detection, hunting Uniform: Green coat, brown suit Equipment: Swords (Seven Association Fixers, Dante(LoR), Seven Association South Section 6 Yi Sang, Seven Association South Section 6 Ryoshu, Seven Association South Section 6 Director Outis, Seven Association South Section 4 Faust, Seven Association South Section 4 Heathcliff) and at least one bladed cane (Seven Association South Section 6 Director Outis) Known Fixers: Dante (Library of Ruina), Yi Sang, Ryoshu, Outis, Faust, Heathcliff (Limbus Company, World of the Seven Association) Han Hee-Joon (Distortion Detective) Affiliated Offices: Moses Office If you want to know something, you pay Seven Association. They specialize in information gathering, and if you pay extra, they'll also hunt down whoever you wanted to know about.
8: Eight? (Speculation based on the languages of the sinners and their numbers corresponding to the languages of the fixer associations, other instances of speculation will be marked with a ?)
nothing is currently known
9: Devyat Association
EDIT: Credit to truboo42, i'm bad at remembering limbus tidbits lol Specialties: Delivery Devyat employs courier fixers to deliver packages around The City, it is assuredly a dangerous job requiring skilled work.
10: Dieci Association
Language: Italian Specialties: Research, accumulation of knowledge Uniform: Priestly robes with a yellow sash Equipment: Gloves that somehow grant power the more knowledge the wearer has (Dieci Association South Section 4 Rodion) Known Fixers: Rodion (Limbus Company, World of the Dieci Association) Not much to go off of yet, but it seems like the Dieci specialize in accumulating knowledge, and are somehow able to use that knowledge for power. (curious why they never went to The Library, who also claimed to accumulate knowledge. perhaps they didn't want the library to have any of their knowledge?)
11: Öufi Association
Language: Swiss German Specialties: Trades and Deals Edit: thank you project moon very cool Uniform: Purple and black outfits similar in style to that worn by the Landsknecht of 15th century Germany Equipment: Ornate Halberd (Öufi Association South Section 3 Heathcliff) Known Fixers: Heathcliff (Limbus Company, World of the Öufi Association) Not much to go off of yet, but the Öufi seem to specialize in contracts and the enforcement thereof.
12: Dodeka?
nothing is currently known
And that's all, hopefully we'll gain more info later on the associations we haven't seen yet, expect future posts covering the Wings of the World and the Backstreets Syndicates!
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@sercphs sent: "Based off of the information that the Immernachtreich Office provided, it seems that the collapse of Shi South occurred as a combined effort between the Star of the City 'The Blue Reverberation,' and Thelma - the Section 1 Director, someone who was acting heavily in his own self interest instead of following rules and code." The Shi West Section 1 Director stands before the Hana Fixer, old-fashioned clipboard in his hand as he glances over the information on the list. "Projected complete recovery time is suspected to take several months, upwards of over a year. With only a small portion of South Section 2 being returned after the second White Nights, I am personally coming to you as a representative of Hana to aide myself and Shi South in their recovery."
"So many fixers are inclined towards those sorts of actions, aren't they?" The ice blue gaze in the Hana Association's bears down on the Shi director. Or, up, rather. And yet despite that discrepancy in height there's no shortness of intimidation that the silver haired woman seemed capable of. Time and experience had tempered her from her own days working with the other associations. Carried in the expression are no words but a question echoes silently never the less.
And you're not like one of them, are you?
Challenging as her tone may be, the indifference and stalwart mannerism on display is itself largely unaffected. It's too early to say she's impressed by any of Seth's character, but at the least he's not a dog waiting to bark or chase something into a ditch for fun. The City had enough of those for Hana to deal with. To say nothing of phenomena. Both were sources of headaches more often than not. As prestigious as her position may be, there were those times that she missed Liu or other groups.
The climb had ended. Hadn't it? No. Of course not. Eira Kestrova still had a bit further to go before she would truly be free.
"And Thelma paid for his betrayal, before anyone at Hana had a chance to make any corrective actions ourselves." There's a hint of disappointment. Though in Eira's case it's because she knows that she wouldn't have been involved in that operation. Her team was more focused on phenomena and distortions herself. A huntress, set with the task of tracking down these villains that pose a growing threat. Cutting weeds. A dirty task.
This gives Eira an idea of why she may have been sought out by Seth. A Grade 1 fixer. An individual who came to prominence (so to speak) before her time at Hana. He was accomplished. Capable. But also with suspicious connections of his own. Eyes remain narrowed for a moment longer before she relents the undeclared confrontation and judgement. A sweeping gesture becomes a sweeping step. The white coat of her Hana attire flowing behind her as she takes up the clipboard to read for herself.
"I see no reason to decline your request. Hm. Fischl's work here even brings up what I already suspected. The Smiling Faces. What a perfect coincidence as I have my own interests in dealing with them. With Shi South weakened, they're like to try and expand their influences. And in doing so expose themselves."
A smile crosses Eira's features, perhaps just as intimidating as the glare she held before.
"I'll have my team sent over promptly. For now. How about we do some initial groundwork, Seth. I know your sort prefers cutting them down, but it's time to knock on a few doors."
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I and four other Liu fixers will help out the front line and call in backup from South Section 1 if crap hits the fan.
So, in total, we have WAW EGO gear(whatever that is), a color fixer, two Grade 1 Liu fixers, two Grade 2 Liu fixers, at least one Grade 3 fixer; the camellia office fixers and distortion; at least one Shi Association fixer; and whatever the hell Musketmainn and the Silent Orchestra are.
(I mostly hope that it'll be over before I manifest EGO for the second time, or distort)
- - <R e v e l a t i o n> - -
- - {Now playing: WhiteNight/白夜} - -
"The Day of Reckoning is Upon thyselves.
Call to all and surrender to salvation.
His Kingdom shall be purged of all sin.
Do not be a fraid. As Judgment shall reign."
(The clock of the apocalypse rings throughout the facility.
Echoing in the minds of those who sin. The clock now ticks.
Aimless of hour. Prepare thyselves.
The end of times had now begun.)
- - - - < PREPARATION PHASE > - - - -
Prepare a plan and see who shall partake in the fight!
Once everything is ready. A 3 hour clock will begin. Ticking each 15 minutes. So be ready!
People that will be in the event:
[To Join just ping me! You can also join in the middle of the event!]
@der-musketmainn
@solemnly-lament
@camellia-office
@voice-of-the-light-c
@the-silent-orchestra
@tomatoing-it-up
@judgement-birds-scale <Neutral>
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Rise of Sixteen States: 305
Gongshi Fan raises troops on behalf of Sima Ying.
[11 February 305 – 30 January 306]
(Jin's 2nd Year of Yongxing)
(Han's 2nd Year of Yuanxi)
(Chengdu's 2nd Year of Jianxing)
Autumn, 7th Month [7 August – 4 September], the King of Donghai, Yue, made ready troops in the Xu region, wanting to go west and welcome the Great Carriage.
(Liu Yuan)
2nd Year of Yuanxi [305 AD], [the Duke of Dongying,] Teng again dispatched Sima Yu, Zhou Liang, Shi Xian and others to chastise him. They stayed at Fencheng in Lishi. Yuan dispatched his General of Tiger Teeth, Liu Qin, and others with the Six Armies to resist Yu and others. They fought four times, and Yu was always defeated. Qin rearranged the battalions and returned.
This Year, at Lishi there was great famine. He moved to Liting, to seek out the grain of the granaries and storehouses. He kept his Grand Commandant, Liu Hong, and Army-Protector, Ma Jing, to defend Lishi. He sent the Great Minister of Agriculture, Bu Yu, to transport provisions to give to them.
Yuan made one blade, 3 chi, 9 cun long, the writing said: “Wipe out the Traitors” in the clerical script.
(Shi Le)
2nd Year [of Yongxing], [the King of Chengdu,] Ying's former general, Gongshi Fan of Yangping and others declared himself a General, and raised troops in Zhao and Wei. His multitudes reached several ten thousands. Le together with Ji Sang led the shepherds riding the park horses, several hundred cavalry, to go to him. Sang began to instruct Le to use Shi as his family name, and Le as his personal name.
Fan designated Le as Supervisor of the Van Unit, and he accompanied to attack the Duke of Pingchang, Mo, at Ye. Mo sent General Feng Song to confront them in battle, he defeated them. Fan crossed from Baima and went south. The Grand Warden of Puyang, Gou Xi chastised Fan, and beheaded him. Le and Sang absconded to hide within the parks. Ying's generals similarly went north of the He. Ji Sang used Le as Serrated Gates Hidden at Night. He led the shepherds to coerce and carry off the commanderies and counties' associated prisoners, and also summoned those who had absconded the instructions into the mountains and marshes. Many adhered to Le, and Le led them to respond to him. They stationed at Pingshi.
(JS004: Autumn, 7thMonth [7 August – 4 September], … the King of Chengdu, Ying's section general, Gongshi Fan and others assembled a multitude to attack and capture the commanderies and counties, murdering the Grand Warden of Yangping, Li Zhi; the Grand Warden of Ji commandery, Zhang Yan, and others. He moved to attack Ye. The Duke of Pingchang, Mo, dispatched General Zhao Xiang to attack and rout him.
9th Month, gengyin [5 October], New Moon, Gongshi Fan also murdered the Grand Warden of Pingyuan, Wang Jing, and the Grand Warden of Qinghe, Feng Xiong.)
(JS037: Beginning of Yongxing [304 – 306], the King of Chengdu, Ying's former Controller[s?] Beneath the Tent, Gongshi Fan, Lou Quan, Hao Chang and others attacked Ye. [The Duke of Pingchang,] Mo's left and right planned to respond to them. The Grand Warden of Guangping, Ding Shao, led the multitudes to save Mo. The King of Fanyang, Xiao, also dispatched the Inspector of Yan province, Gou Xi, to aid him. Fan and others scattered and fled.)
(Zhang Gui)
2nd Year of Yongxing [305 AD], the Xianbei Ruoluo [and?] Baneng both were robbers. Gui dispatched Marshal Song Pei to strike them. He beheaded Baneng and took prisoner more than 100 000 mouths. His power and fame greatly shook. Emperor Hui dispatched to add to him General who Calms the West, and ennobled him Marquis of Anle district with 1 000 households.
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London Houses: New Property Designs
London Houses, Property Images, New Homes, Buildings, Architects, Residential Architecture
London Houses: Properties
Contemporary Residential Buildings in South East England – Contemporary British Homes in the UK Capital
post updated 13 May 2021
London House – Latest Designs
London Residential Architecture News, chronological:
4 May 2021 Highgate House Restoration, Highgate Conservation Area, North London Design: Cairn photograph : Peter Landers Highgate House Restoration This Edwardian property restoration project brought a dilapidated home back to life, re-organising the arrangement to suit the lives of a young family and converting the roof space. A huge amount of work was required to restore the home and modernise the layout and environmental performance.
27 Apr 2021 Sponge Urban Living
21 Apr 2021 House for a Gardener, Haringey, North East London Design: Amos Goldreich Architecture photograph : Ollie Hammick House for a Gardener, Haringey A much-loved garden was central to our design of this side and rear extension for a Victorian mid-terrace house in the Stroud Green Conservation Area of Haringey. The project arranges a sequence of living spaces around the garden and an internal courtyard that gives constant connection to greenery.
21 Apr 2021 Vault House
Mountain View House
Chiswick House Extension
Bladerunner House
Cascade House, Hampstead Village
1 Mar 2021 Cloistered House, Chelsea, south west London Design: Turner Architects photograph © Adam Scott Images Chelsea Georgian terraced house The restoration and extension of a Cubitt-built Georgian terraced house in a conservation area. The Cloistered House was carefully given life having been left to ruin for many years.
20 Feb 2021 Library House
16 Feb 2021 Eclectic House, Camden
14 Feb 2021 Melbury Studio
14 Feb 2021 Harcombe House
14 Feb 2021 St Georges House
14 Feb 2021 Boscombe House
29 Jan 2021 The Rower’s House, Chiswick, south west London Architects: Loader Monteith photography : Emanuelis Stasaitis The Rower’s House in Chiswick The clients wanted a home with four bedrooms, space to entertain, and an accessible garden – with plenty of space to live and work, as well as a divisible section for a relative to use autonomously. Despite a questionable original design, the couple found the perfect potential property in a quiet corner of London.
1 Feb 2021 Art House, Paddington
10 Dec 2020 Kensington Townhouse Design: KNOF design photography: David Cleveland Kensington Townhouse, Hyde Park KNOF Design, an international design practice founded by Susan Knof, has just completed a major London commission – the unification of two separate townhouses near Hyde Park to create a single 7,500sf family home.
4 Dec 2020 Pitched Black House
26 Nov 2020 Sugar House
17 Nov 2020 17 Portland Place Renovations
16 Nov 2020 Regency Villa, Kensington
16 Nov 2020 EC1 Penthouse, Clerkenwell
15 Nov 2020 Chiswick House Extension, West London Architects and Interior Designers: Found Associates photograph : Nick Hufton, Al Crow Chiswick House Extension A double-fronted Edwardian house has been updated and extended in dramatic fashion for a television and radio presenter and his family. This four storey villa sits on a corner site with unusually large gardens to the rear. The renovation and reinvention of the villa reinforces the sense of connection between house and garden.
7 Nov 2020 Winter House Renovations
24 Apr 2020 Two and a Half Storey House, Central London Architects: Bradley Van Der Straeten photograph © French + Tye Two and a Half Storey House The Two and a Half Storey House project that circumnavigates a local planning restriction by building a half-height roof extension! The clients owned the existing two-storey, two-bedroom property, located on a central London Housing Estate.
1 Apr 2020 Hampstead Penthouse Property, North London Design: Ungar Architects photograph : Peter Cook Hampstead Penthouse Property A breathtaking new penthouse in Hampstead, with panoramic views across the UK capital city.
1 Apr 2020 Contemporary London Penthouse Properties Penthouse Properties London
5 Mar 2020 An Eclectic Victorian Home Extension North London
3 Mar 2020 Slim Studio’s Flat Interior
26 Feb 2020 Collector’s Flat, Central London Design: MATA Architects photograph © Peter Landers Collector’s Flat Interior in Central London Extensive refurbishment and interiors fit out of an apartment in a mansion block constructed at the turn of the 19th century. The works included substantial structural modifications altering the flat’s layout and introducing new services.
30 Oct 2019 Brexit Bunker Design: RISE Design Studio photograph : Edmund Sumner Brexit Bunker This sunken garden room was envisioned as a way of adding a new studio and extending the program of the house, without having to intervene in the existing portion of the building.
15 Oct 2019 Fleet House in Hampstead
20 Sep 2019 Dukes House, Alexandra Palace, Muswell Hill Structural Engineer: TZG Partnership photograph : Will Pryce Muswell Hill House This North London property is an ornate Edwardian Terrace, in the shadows of Alexandra Palace. The home has been given a complete make over.
20 Sep 2019 Aperture House in Islington
More contemporary London houses designs online soon on e-architect
London Houses Designs in 2018
23 Oct 2018 Duke’s Avenue House, Chiswick Architects: IBLA photograph : Brotherton Lock Contemporary House in London The clients, a pair of doctors, wanted to significantly increase the amount of floor-space in their West London home, whilst maintaining the existing character and external massing of the original house, and keeping their garden intact.
2 Oct 2018 Volcano House, Shoreditch, East London Architects: Urban Mesh design ltd photograph © Charles Hosea New House in Shoreditch The interiors of the home were playfully designed to suit the desires and personalities of the Client and his family.
20 Aug 2018 Benbow Yard Home, Southwark, South London Design: FORMstudio Architects photograph © Bruce Hemming Contemporary Home in Southwark This new property is a response to the Mayor of London’s Policy to optimise the re-use of small sites across the UK capital city.
19 Jun 2018 Victorian Townhouse, Highgate, North London Design: LLI Design photograph © Victorian Townhouse in Highgate Conversion of a Victorian property in reasonable condition to form a warm, comfortable home with contemporary style touches.
30 Apr 2018 Step House, North London Architects: Bureau de Change photo © Ben Blossom North London Property Extension Using bricks reclaimed from the fabric of the house, the architects exploited the rights of light diagram to create a staggered, extruded form that appears to melt away from the existing structure. This rhythmic stepping generated by the brick is echoed throughout the interior, and is integrated in both the plan and section of the extension.
27 Apr 2018 Roof Conversion, Crouch End, North London Design: JaK Studio, Architects photo : Francesco Russo Crouch End Flat Extension JaK Studio create unique loft conversion in large Victorian property by adding a new dormer extension to form a dramatic two-storey cathedral-esque space.
29 Jan 2018 The Etch House, Honor Oak, Lewisham, South London Design: Fraher Architects photo : Adam Scott Honor Oak Home Extension Joint Third Prize in ‘Don’t Move, Improve!’ 2018: this 1460 sqft property re-examines the layout of the traditional Victorian terrace house. A modern floor plan sits within the old house walls, hidden behind the retained street elevation.
26 Jan 2018 Sun Rain Rooms, Islington, North London Design: Tonkin Liu Architects photo : Edmund Sumner Sun Rain Rooms Home Extension ‘Sun Rain Rooms’ has been crowned London’s best and most innovative home extension as overall winner of New London Architecture’s (NLA) annual ‘Don’t Move, Improve!’ competition.
London Houses Design News for 2017
8 Dec 2017 Highgate Hill Townhouse, North London Design: LLI Design photo from LLI Design Highgate Hill Townhouse Winner in the Interior Design, London category – UK Property Awards 2017-18. LLI Design recently completed a total redesign and refurbishment of a 7 storey townhouse in Highgate, a leafy and desirable part of London.
15 Aug 2017 Hilltop House, Kingston-upon-Thames, South West London Architects: Coupdeville photograph : Simon Kennedy New Teddington House Commissioned in 2012, the architecture studio were asked to design a five bedroom house on a large 0.26 acre single plot, while retaining the existing building.
11 Aug 2017 Fairfax House, Teddington, South West London Architects: Coupdeville photograph : Simon Kennedy New Teddington House The proposal is for a contemporary dwelling that is based on a series of banded layers, that allow for a light filled interior and a dynamic and interesting external appearance.
24 Mar 2017 Oak Hill House, Hampstead, North London Design: Claridge Architects photograph : Simon Kennedy New Hampstead House Shou Sugi Ban, a UK based manufacturer of charred timber products, has selected Kebony, to create a distinctive modified timber cladding using the ancient Japanese techniques of burning, brushing or pre-weathering timber to provide a long-lasting and beautiful wood.
London Property Design News for 2016
27 Nov 2016 Increasing Value of Residential in the British Capital City Flipping Property Prices in London
1 Sep 2016 House of Trace Design: Tsuruta Architects photo : Tim Croker House of Trace A beautiful and unconventional extension to a London terraced house designed by Tsuruta Architects has been awarded the 2016 Stephen Lawrence Prize.
2 Jan 2016 Madeira Residence, Bromley, South east London Design: Rado Iliev Architect photograph : Assen Emilov New Residence in Bromley
5 Nov 2015 Newington Green Road Property, North east London Architects: NK Architects image : Robin Hayes Newington Green Road House
16 Sep 2013 Mayfair House Design: Squire and Partners, Architects photo : Gareth Gardner Mayfair House The contemporary interpretation of leaves are crafted as a metallic shingle, which cover a three storey elevation and rooftop pavilion. The PPC coated folded aluminium leaves – 4,080 in total – subtly vary in tones of bronze to mimic organic growth patterns. The concept was designed over a three year period of research and development working closely with Swiss manufacturer Tuchschmid.
London Homes – archive page up to and including 2013 photo : Alan Williams Photography
Location: London, England, UK
London Architecture
London Architecture Design – chronological list
London Architecture Walking Tours
London Architecture
London Architect
London Buildings
New House Designs
Modern Houses
English Houses
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London House Extension Competition
Islington houses
New Properties / photos for the London Houses page welcome
Website: London
The post London Houses: New Property Designs appeared first on e-architect.
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New top story from Time: At Least 4 Killed as Tropical Storm Isaias Whips Up Eastern U.S.
(WINDSOR, N.C.) — At least four people were killed as Tropical Storm Isaias spawned tornadoes and dumped rain Tuesday along the U.S. East Coast after making landfall as a hurricane in North Carolina, where it caused floods and fires that displaced dozens of people.
Two people died when Isaias spun off a tornado that struck a North Carolina mobile home park. Authorities said two others were killed by falling trees toppled by the storm in Maryland and New York City.
Isaias sustained top winds of up to 65 mph (105 kph) more than 18 hours after coming ashore, but it was down to 50 mph max winds as of 8 p.m. EDT Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm’s center was passing through the middle of Vermont, moving north-northeast at about 40 mph (65 kph).
As Isaias sped northward, the hurricane center warned of flash flood threats in New York’s Hudson River Valley and the potential for severe river flooding elsewhere in the mid-Atlantic region.
National Hurricane CenterTropical Storm Isaias had sustained top winds of up to 65 mph more than 18 hours after coming ashore, but it was down to 50 mph max winds as of 8 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In Philadelphia, the Schuylkill River was projected to crest early Wednesday at 15.4 feet (4.7 meters), its highest level in more than 150 years. By Tuesday night, the river had already overtopped its banks in low-lying Manayunk, turning bar-lined Main Street into a coffee-colored canal.
Two people died after a tornado demolished several mobile homes in Windsor, North Carolina. Emergency responders finished searching the wreckage Tuesday afternoon. They found no other casualties, and several people initially feared missing had all been accounted for, said Ron Wesson, chairman of the Bertie County Board of Commissioners. He said about 12 people were hospitalized.
Sharee and Jeffrey Stilwell took shelter in their living room about 1:30 a.m. Tuesday as the tornado tore through Windsor. Sharee Stillwell said their home shook “like a freight train.”
“I felt like the house was going to cave in,” said Jeffrey Stillwell, 65, though once the storm passed, the couple found only a few damaged shingles and fallen tree branches in the yard.
The mobile home park less than 2 miles (3 kilometers) away wasn’t so fortunate. Aerial video by WRAL-TV showed fields of debris where rescue workers in brightly colored shirts picked through splintered boards and other wreckage. Nearby, a vehicle was flipped onto its roof.
“It doesn’t look real; it looks like something on TV. Nothing is there,” Bertie County Sheriff John Holley told reporters, saying 10 mobile homes had been destroyed. “All my officers are down there at this time. Pretty much the entire trailer park is gone.”
In New York City, a massive tree fell and crushed a van in the Briarwood section of Queens, killing Mario Siles, a 60-year-old construction contractor who was inside the vehicle, police said. A woman in Mechanicsville, Maryland, died when a tree crashed onto her car during stormy conditions, said Cpl. Julie Yingling of the St. Mary’s County sheriff’s office.
Isaias toggled between hurricane and tropical storm strength as it churned toward the East Coast. Fueled by warm ocean waters, the storm got a late burst of strength as a rejuvenated hurricane with top sustained winds of 85 mph (136 km/h) before coming ashore late Monday near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina. Its tropical storm status was sustained, but weakened, as it headed north toward Canada early Tuesday night.
Many homes flooded in Ocean Isle Beach, and at least five caught fire, Mayor Debbie Smith told WECT-TV.
Before making landfall late Monday, Isaias killed two people in the Caribbean and battered the Bahamas before brushing past Florida.
Tornadoes were confirmed by the National Weather Service in Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. Power outages also spread as trees fell, with more than 3.7 million customers losing electricity across multiple states as of 8:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday, according to PowerOutage.US, which tracks utility reports. New Jersey had the most outages of any state, with more than 1.3 million earlier in the day. New York City’s power utility said it saw more outages from Isaias than from any storm except Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
In Doylestown, Pennsylvania, officials said four children were treated for minor injuries after high winds partially tore the roof off a day care center. Also in the Philadelphia suburbs, rescue workers in Delaware County were searching for a young person who fell or jumped into the fast-moving water of a swollen creek, said Timothy Boyce, the county emergency services director.
In New York City, fierce wind and rain forced the Staten Island ferry and outdoor subway lines to shut down. The New Jersey Turnpike banned car-pulled trailers and motorcycles.
Some of the worst damage Tuesday seemed to be east and north of where the hurricane’s eye struck land in North Carolina.
“Fortunately, this storm was fast-moving and has already left our state,” Gov. Roy Cooper said Tuesday afternoon.
In North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, the storm sent waves crashing over the Sea Cabin Pier late Monday, causing a big section to collapse into the water as startled bystanders taking photos from the pier scrambled back to land.
“I’m shocked it’s still standing,” said Dean Burris, who watched from the balcony of a vacation rental.
The Hurricane Center had warned oceanside dwellers near the North Carolina-South Carolina state line to brace for storm surge up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) and up to 8 inches (20 centimeters) of rain.
Eileen and David Hubler were out early Tuesday cleaning up in North Myrtle Beach, where 4 feet (1.2 meters) of storm surge flooded cars, unhinged docks and etched a water line into the side of their home.
“When the water started coming, it did not stop,” Eileen Hubler said. They had moved most items of value to their second floor, but a mattress and washing machine were unexpected storm casualties.
“We keep thinking we’ve learned our lesson,” she said. “And each time there’s a hurricane, we learn a new lesson.”
___
Morgan reported from North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Associated Press contributors include science writer Seth Borenstein in Kensington, Maryland; Gerry Broome in Southport, North Carolina; Jonathan Drew in Durham, North Carolina; Michelle Liu in Columbia, South Carolina; Michael Kunzelman in College Park, Maryland; Bruce Shipkowski in Toms River, New Jersey; Shawn Marsh in Trenton, New Jersey; and Michael Sisak in New York.
___
Bryan Anderson is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.”
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Bernie Sanders Embraces A New Study That Lowers ‘Medicare For All’s’ Price Tag, But Skepticism Abounds
“[A recent study] said ‘Medicare for All’ will lower health care costs in this country by $450 billion a year and save the lives of 68,000 people who would otherwise have died.”
— Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in remarks made February 25, 2020 during the South Carolina Democratic primary debate.
Defending his signature health plan — a single-payer system known “Medicare for All” that would move all Americans to government-funded coverage — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders argued that the massive health care expansion would actually save the system hundreds of billions of dollars.
Sanders’ figures come from a study published Feb. 15 in The Lancet, a British medical journal.
This story also ran on PolitiFact. This story can be republished for free (details).
“It said ‘Medicare for All’ will lower health care costs in this country by $450 billion a year and save the lives of 68,000 people who would otherwise have died,” Sanders said at the Feb. 25 Democratic presidential debate.
The price tag of Medicare for All has been fiercely debated, and some previous analyses have suggested that the proposal would increase health spending, not decrease it. But Sanders is relying on the Lancet paper — which has a cost estimate that is the lowest, in the neighborhood of $17 trillion over 10 years — to argue that the suite of financing mechanisms he has proposed would more than cover the cost of his health bill. (Funding would include taxes on high earners, a new payroll tax, and 4% income premiums for the majority of families.) Most other estimates place the cost between $30 trillion and $40 trillion over a decade, which would make paying for it far more difficult. So we decided to take a closer look.
We reached out to one of the study’s authors, but never heard back.
A spokesperson for the Sanders campaign said the paper is “similar to 22 other recent studies that have also shown that moving to a single-payer healthcare system will cost less than our current dysfunctional healthcare system.” (We asked for those 22 other studies but, as of publication, hadn’t received them.)
But independent experts were skeptical of the study’s estimate — arguing it exaggerates potential savings, cherry-picks evidence and downplays some of the potential tradeoffs.
“I don’t think this study, albeit in a prestigious, peer-reviewed journal, should be given any deference in the Medicare for All debate,” said Robert Berenson, a fellow at the Urban Institute who studies hospital pricing.
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So, Savings?
Largely, the Lancet paper is more generous in its assumptions than other Medicare for All analysis, noted Jodi Liu, an economist at the RAND Corp., who studies single-payer plans. To the researchers’ credit, she said, they acknowledge that their findings are based on uncertain assumptions.
For instance, the researchers calculate $78.2 billion in savings from providing primary care to uninsured people — $70.4 billion from avoided hospitalizations and $7.8 from avoided emergency room visits. But previous evidence suggests that logic is suspect at best.
When states expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, providing new insurance to people who had previously lacked coverage, avoidable hospitalizations and emergency room visits didn’t disappear because people could suddenly use preventive care, noted Ellen Meara, a professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. That evidence doesn’t appear anywhere in the Lancet paper.
“The notion that we’re going to get rid of all these avoidable visits — that’s not been borne out,” she said.
The researchers also assume that a Medicare for All system would pay hospitals at a maximum of Medicare rates.
That’s tricky. In 2017, the nonpartisan Medicare Payment Advisory Commission estimated that, on average, a hospital has a -9.9% margin on a patient who is insured through Medicare. (Private pay helps make up that difference.) Some hospitals certainly would be able to swallow this cost. But others would struggle to stay afloat, said Adrianna McIntyre, a health policy researcher at Harvard University
Given the political influence hospitals in particular carry in Congress — where most members are sensitive to their concerns — passing a plan offering such a low payment rate would be politically challenging.
Sanders’ bill doesn’t actually specify the rates at which hospitals would be paid.
Beyond the lower payments, the researchers also suggest hospitals would spend less money on overhead, only having to navigate a single insurance plan. That change accounts for $219 billion in their estimated savings.
But again, that ignores some of the reality of how hospitals work. While a single-payer system would undoubtedly cost less to administer — requiring a smaller back-end staff, for instance — it would not eliminate the need for expensive items like electronic health records, which coordinate care between hospitals.
“The assumptions are unrealistic,” said Gerard Anderson, a health economist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. “You are never going to save that much money from the various providers.”
The Cost-Sharing Question
Medicare for All would enroll all Americans in coverage far more generous than what most experience now — eliminating virtually all cost-sharing associated with using health care.
That’s a major change, researchers told us. Previous evidence suggests that such a shift would encourage consumers to use health care more than they currently do.
The Lancet paper acknowledges that — but only partially. It allows that people who are uninsured or “underinsured” — that is, who have particularly high levels of cost-sharing now — would use more medical care under Sanders’ system than they currently do. It factors that into the price tag.
But its estimate does not account for people who already have decent or adequate insurance and who would still be moving to a richer benefit, and therefore more likely to use their insurance.
“It drastically underestimates the utilization increases we would expect to see under Medicare for All,” McIntyre said. “People have different views on whether the increased utilization is good or bad,” she added — it makes the program more expensive, but also means more people are getting treatment.
Other Estimates?
Context is helpful, too. Other estimates — namely, a projection by the Urban Institute — of Medicare for All have suggested it would increase federal health spending by about $34 trillion over 10 years. But elimination of other health spending would make the overall change smaller.
To implement the Sanders proposal, national health spending — public and private dollars, both — would increase by $7 trillion over a decade, Urban said. And Medicare for All would be bringing new services: more insurance for more people, and more generous coverage for those already covered.
Urban’s estimate of $7 trillion more in spending over 10 years is far removed from the study’s estimate of $450 billion less annually. And, experts said, relying on the latter figure isn’t a good idea.
Sources:
Bernie 2020, “How Does Bernie Pay For His Major Plans,” Feb. 24, 2020.
The Lancet, “Improving the Prognosis of Health Care in the USA,” Feb. 15, 2020.
JAMA, “Association of Medicaid Expansion With 1-Year Mortality Among Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease,” Dec. 4, 2018.
Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, “2019 Report to the Congress,” March 15, 2019.
University of Michigan, “Medicaid and Mortality: New Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data,” Aug. 17, 2019.
Email interview with Gerard Anderson, professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Feb. 19, 2020.
Email interview with Robert Berenson, fellow at Urban Institute, Feb. 19, 2020.
Email interview with Jodi Liu, associate policy researcher at the Rand Corp., Feb. 19, 2020.
Telephone interview with Ellen Meara, professor of health economics and policy at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Feb. 25, 2020.
Telephone interview with Adrianna McIntyre, health policy researcher at Harvard University, Feb. 25, 2020.
“I think they need more work to prove” the savings, Meara said. “They’re not being complete, and by not being complete, they’re not being honest.”
It’s also worth noting that the study’s lead author was also an informal unpaid adviser to the Sanders staff in drafting its 2019 version of the Medicare for All bill, according to the paper’s disclosures section.
The “Lives Saved”
Experts agree that expanding access to health insurance would probably reduce early mortality. But the 68,000 figure is another example of cherry-picking, Meara said.
The figure is based on a 2009 paper. It doesn’t acknowledge a body of research that came after, including multiple studies that examined how expanding Medicaid affected mortality — and maybe offered less dramatic numbers.
“When they so clearly are cherry-picking, when they clearly have all the information on studies in front of them, it’s concerning,” Meara said. “It’s a situation where you’re going to overpromise and underdeliver.”
Our Ruling
Sanders said a recent study suggested Medicare for All would save $450 billion annually and saves 68,000 lives.
That study does exist. And it cites some evidence. But many of its assumptions are flawed, and experts uniformly told us it overestimates the potential savings. It cherry-picks data in calculating mortality effects.
This statement has some truth, but ignores context that would create a dramatically different impression. We rate it Mostly False.
from Updates By Dina https://khn.org/news/bernie-sanders-embraces-a-new-study-that-lowers-medicare-for-alls-price-tag-but-skepticism-abounds/
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Bernie Sanders Embraces A New Study That Lowers ‘Medicare For All’s’ Price Tag, But Skepticism Abounds
“[A recent study] said ‘Medicare for All’ will lower health care costs in this country by $450 billion a year and save the lives of 68,000 people who would otherwise have died.”
— Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in remarks made February 25, 2020 during the South Carolina Democratic primary debate.
Defending his signature health plan — a single-payer system known “Medicare for All” that would move all Americans to government-funded coverage — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders argued that the massive health care expansion would actually save the system hundreds of billions of dollars.
Sanders’ figures come from a study published Feb. 15 in The Lancet, a British medical journal.
This story also ran on PolitiFact. This story can be republished for free (details).
“It said ‘Medicare for All’ will lower health care costs in this country by $450 billion a year and save the lives of 68,000 people who would otherwise have died,” Sanders said at the Feb. 25 Democratic presidential debate.
The price tag of Medicare for All has been fiercely debated, and some previous analyses have suggested that the proposal would increase health spending, not decrease it. But Sanders is relying on the Lancet paper — which has a cost estimate that is the lowest, in the neighborhood of $17 trillion over 10 years — to argue that the suite of financing mechanisms he has proposed would more than cover the cost of his health bill. (Funding would include taxes on high earners, a new payroll tax, and 4% income premiums for the majority of families.) Most other estimates place the cost between $30 trillion and $40 trillion over a decade, which would make paying for it far more difficult. So we decided to take a closer look.
We reached out to one of the study’s authors, but never heard back.
A spokesperson for the Sanders campaign said the paper is “similar to 22 other recent studies that have also shown that moving to a single-payer healthcare system will cost less than our current dysfunctional healthcare system.” (We asked for those 22 other studies but, as of publication, hadn’t received them.)
But independent experts were skeptical of the study’s estimate — arguing it exaggerates potential savings, cherry-picks evidence and downplays some of the potential tradeoffs.
“I don’t think this study, albeit in a prestigious, peer-reviewed journal, should be given any deference in the Medicare for All debate,” said Robert Berenson, a fellow at the Urban Institute who studies hospital pricing.
Don't Miss A Story
Subscribe to KHN’s free Weekly Edition newsletter.
Sign Up
Please confirm your email address below:
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So, Savings?
Largely, the Lancet paper is more generous in its assumptions than other Medicare for All analysis, noted Jodi Liu, an economist at the RAND Corp., who studies single-payer plans. To the researchers’ credit, she said, they acknowledge that their findings are based on uncertain assumptions.
For instance, the researchers calculate $78.2 billion in savings from providing primary care to uninsured people — $70.4 billion from avoided hospitalizations and $7.8 from avoided emergency room visits. But previous evidence suggests that logic is suspect at best.
When states expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, providing new insurance to people who had previously lacked coverage, avoidable hospitalizations and emergency room visits didn’t disappear because people could suddenly use preventive care, noted Ellen Meara, a professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. That evidence doesn’t appear anywhere in the Lancet paper.
“The notion that we’re going to get rid of all these avoidable visits — that’s not been borne out,” she said.
The researchers also assume that a Medicare for All system would pay hospitals at a maximum of Medicare rates.
That’s tricky. In 2017, the nonpartisan Medicare Payment Advisory Commission estimated that, on average, a hospital has a -9.9% margin on a patient who is insured through Medicare. (Private pay helps make up that difference.) Some hospitals certainly would be able to swallow this cost. But others would struggle to stay afloat, said Adrianna McIntyre, a health policy researcher at Harvard University
Given the political influence hospitals in particular carry in Congress — where most members are sensitive to their concerns — passing a plan offering such a low payment rate would be politically challenging.
Sanders’ bill doesn’t actually specify the rates at which hospitals would be paid.
Beyond the lower payments, the researchers also suggest hospitals would spend less money on overhead, only having to navigate a single insurance plan. That change accounts for $219 billion in their estimated savings.
But again, that ignores some of the reality of how hospitals work. While a single-payer system would undoubtedly cost less to administer — requiring a smaller back-end staff, for instance — it would not eliminate the need for expensive items like electronic health records, which coordinate care between hospitals.
“The assumptions are unrealistic,” said Gerard Anderson, a health economist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. “You are never going to save that much money from the various providers.”
The Cost-Sharing Question
Medicare for All would enroll all Americans in coverage far more generous than what most experience now — eliminating virtually all cost-sharing associated with using health care.
That’s a major change, researchers told us. Previous evidence suggests that such a shift would encourage consumers to use health care more than they currently do.
The Lancet paper acknowledges that — but only partially. It allows that people who are uninsured or “underinsured” — that is, who have particularly high levels of cost-sharing now — would use more medical care under Sanders’ system than they currently do. It factors that into the price tag.
But its estimate does not account for people who already have decent or adequate insurance and who would still be moving to a richer benefit, and therefore more likely to use their insurance.
“It drastically underestimates the utilization increases we would expect to see under Medicare for All,” McIntyre said. “People have different views on whether the increased utilization is good or bad,” she added — it makes the program more expensive, but also means more people are getting treatment.
Other Estimates?
Context is helpful, too. Other estimates — namely, a projection by the Urban Institute — of Medicare for All have suggested it would increase federal health spending by about $34 trillion over 10 years. But elimination of other health spending would make the overall change smaller.
To implement the Sanders proposal, national health spending — public and private dollars, both — would increase by $7 trillion over a decade, Urban said. And Medicare for All would be bringing new services: more insurance for more people, and more generous coverage for those already covered.
Urban’s estimate of $7 trillion more in spending over 10 years is far removed from the study’s estimate of $450 billion less annually. And, experts said, relying on the latter figure isn’t a good idea.
Sources:
Bernie 2020, “How Does Bernie Pay For His Major Plans,” Feb. 24, 2020.
The Lancet, “Improving the Prognosis of Health Care in the USA,” Feb. 15, 2020.
JAMA, “Association of Medicaid Expansion With 1-Year Mortality Among Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease,” Dec. 4, 2018.
Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, “2019 Report to the Congress,” March 15, 2019.
University of Michigan, “Medicaid and Mortality: New Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data,” Aug. 17, 2019.
Email interview with Gerard Anderson, professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Feb. 19, 2020.
Email interview with Robert Berenson, fellow at Urban Institute, Feb. 19, 2020.
Email interview with Jodi Liu, associate policy researcher at the Rand Corp., Feb. 19, 2020.
Telephone interview with Ellen Meara, professor of health economics and policy at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Feb. 25, 2020.
Telephone interview with Adrianna McIntyre, health policy researcher at Harvard University, Feb. 25, 2020.
“I think they need more work to prove” the savings, Meara said. “They’re not being complete, and by not being complete, they’re not being honest.”
It’s also worth noting that the study’s lead author was also an informal unpaid adviser to the Sanders staff in drafting its 2019 version of the Medicare for All bill, according to the paper’s disclosures section.
The “Lives Saved”
Experts agree that expanding access to health insurance would probably reduce early mortality. But the 68,000 figure is another example of cherry-picking, Meara said.
The figure is based on a 2009 paper. It doesn’t acknowledge a body of research that came after, including multiple studies that examined how expanding Medicaid affected mortality — and maybe offered less dramatic numbers.
“When they so clearly are cherry-picking, when they clearly have all the information on studies in front of them, it’s concerning,” Meara said. “It’s a situation where you’re going to overpromise and underdeliver.”
Our Ruling
Sanders said a recent study suggested Medicare for All would save $450 billion annually and saves 68,000 lives.
That study does exist. And it cites some evidence. But many of its assumptions are flawed, and experts uniformly told us it overestimates the potential savings. It cherry-picks data in calculating mortality effects.
This statement has some truth, but ignores context that would create a dramatically different impression. We rate it Mostly False.
Bernie Sanders Embraces A New Study That Lowers ‘Medicare For All’s’ Price Tag, But Skepticism Abounds published first on https://nootropicspowdersupplier.tumblr.com/
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Bernie Sanders Embraces A New Study That Lowers ‘Medicare For All’s’ Price Tag, But Skepticism Abounds
“(A recent study) said ‘Medicare for All’ will lower health care costs in this country by $450 billion a year and save the lives of 68,000 people who would otherwise have died.”
— Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in remarks made February 25, 2020 during the South Carolina Democratic primary debate.
Defending his signature health plan — a single-payer system known “Medicare for All” that would move all Americans to government-funded coverage — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders argued that the massive health care expansion would actually save the system hundreds of billions of dollars.
Sanders’ figures come from a study published Feb. 15 in The Lancet, a British medical journal.
This story also ran on PolitiFact. This story can be republished for free (details).
“It said ‘Medicare for All’ will lower health care costs in this country by $450 billion a year and save the lives of 68,000 people who would otherwise have died,” Sanders said at the Feb. 25 Democratic presidential debate.
The price tag of Medicare for All has been fiercely debated, and some previous analyses have suggested that the proposal would increase health spending, not decrease it. But Sanders is relying on the Lancet paper — which has a cost estimate that is the lowest, in the neighborhood of $17 trillion over 10 years — to argue that the suite of financing mechanisms he has proposed would more than cover the cost of his health bill. (Funding would include taxes on high earners, a new payroll tax, and 4% income premiums for the majority of families.) Most other estimates place the cost between $30 trillion and $40 trillion over a decade, which would make paying for it far more difficult. So we decided to take a closer look.
We reached out to one of the study’s authors, but never heard back.
A spokesperson for the Sanders campaign said the paper is “similar to 22 other recent studies that have also shown that moving to a single-payer healthcare system will cost less than our current dysfunctional healthcare system.” (We asked for those 22 other studies but, as of publication, hadn’t received them.)
But independent experts were skeptical of the study’s estimate — arguing it exaggerates potential savings, cherry-picks evidence and downplays some of the potential tradeoffs.
“I don’t think this study, albeit in a prestigious, peer-reviewed journal, should be given any deference in the Medicare for All debate,” said Robert Berenson, a fellow at the Urban Institute who studies hospital pricing.
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So, Savings?
Largely, the Lancet paper is more generous in its assumptions than other Medicare for All analysis, noted Jodi Liu, an economist at the RAND Corp., who studies single-payer plans. To the researchers’ credit, she said, they acknowledge that their findings are based on uncertain assumptions.
For instance, the researchers calculate $78.2 billion in savings from providing primary care to uninsured people — $70.4 billion from avoided hospitalizations and $7.8 from avoided emergency room visits. But previous evidence suggests that logic is suspect at best.
When states expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, providing new insurance to people who had previously lacked coverage, avoidable hospitalizations and emergency room visits didn’t disappear because people could suddenly use preventive care, noted Ellen Meara, a professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. That evidence doesn’t appear anywhere in the Lancet paper.
“The notion that we’re going to get rid of all these avoidable visits — that’s not been borne out,” she said.
The researchers also assume that a Medicare for All system would pay hospitals at a maximum of Medicare rates.
That’s tricky. In 2017, the nonpartisan Medicare Payment Advisory Commission estimated that, on average, a hospital has a -9.9% margin on a patient who is insured through Medicare. (Private pay helps make up that difference.) Some hospitals certainly would be able to swallow this cost. But others would struggle to stay afloat, said Adrianna McIntyre, a health policy researcher at Harvard University
Given the political influence hospitals in particular carry in Congress — where most members are sensitive to their concerns — passing a plan offering such a low payment rate would be politically challenging.
Sanders’ bill doesn’t actually specify the rates at which hospitals would be paid.
Beyond the lower payments, the researchers also suggest hospitals would spend less money on overhead, only having to navigate a single insurance plan. That change accounts for $219 billion in their estimated savings.
But again, that ignores some of the reality of how hospitals work. While a single-payer system would undoubtedly cost less to administer — requiring a smaller back-end staff, for instance — it would not eliminate the need for expensive items like electronic health records, which coordinate care between hospitals.
“The assumptions are unrealistic,” said Gerard Anderson, a health economist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. “You are never going to save that much money from the various providers.”
The Cost-Sharing Question
Medicare for All would enroll all Americans in coverage far more generous than what most experience now — eliminating virtually all cost-sharing associated with using health care.
That’s a major change, researchers told us. Previous evidence suggests that such a shift would encourage consumers to use health care more than they currently do.
The Lancet paper acknowledges that — but only partially. It allows that people who are uninsured or “underinsured” — that is, who have particularly high levels of cost-sharing now — would use more medical care under Sanders’ system than they currently do. It factors that into the price tag.
But its estimate does not account for people who already have decent or adequate insurance and who would still be moving to a richer benefit, and therefore more likely to use their insurance.
“It drastically underestimates the utilization increases we would expect to see under Medicare for All,” McIntyre said. “People have different views on whether the increased utilization is good or bad,” she added — it makes the program more expensive, but also means more people are getting treatment.
Other Estimates?
Context is helpful, too. Other estimates — namely, a projection by the Urban Institute — of Medicare for All have suggested it would increase federal health spending by about $34 trillion over 10 years. But elimination of other health spending would make the overall change smaller.
To implement the Sanders proposal, national health spending — public and private dollars, both — would increase by $7 trillion over a decade, Urban said. And Medicare for All would be bringing new services: more insurance for more people, and more generous coverage for those already covered.
Urban’s estimate of $7 trillion more in spending over 10 years is far removed from the study’s estimate of $450 billion less annually. And, experts said, relying on the latter figure isn’t a good idea.
Sources:
Bernie 2020, “How Does Bernie Pay For His Major Plans,” Feb. 24, 2020.
The Lancet, “Improving the Prognosis of Health Care in the USA,” Feb. 15, 2020.
JAMA, “Association of Medicaid Expansion With 1-Year Mortality Among Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease,” Dec. 4, 2018.
Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, “2019 Report to the Congress,” March 15, 2019.
University of Michigan, “Medicaid and Mortality: New Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data,” Aug. 17, 2019.
Email interview with Gerard Anderson, professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Feb. 19, 2020.
Email interview with Robert Berenson, fellow at Urban Institute, Feb. 19, 2020.
Email interview with Jodi Liu, associate policy researcher at the Rand Corp., Feb. 19, 2020.
Telephone interview with Ellen Meara, professor of health economics and policy at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Feb. 25, 2020.
Telephone interview with Adrianna McIntyre, health policy researcher at Harvard University, Feb. 25, 2020.
“I think they need more work to prove” the savings, Meara said. “They’re not being complete, and by not being complete, they’re not being honest.”
It’s also worth noting that the study’s lead author was also an informal unpaid adviser to the Sanders staff in drafting its 2019 version of the Medicare for All bill, according to the paper’s disclosures section.
The “Lives Saved”
Experts agree that expanding access to health insurance would probably reduce early mortality. But the 68,000 figure is another example of cherry-picking, Meara said.
The figure is based on a 2009 paper. It doesn’t acknowledge a body of research that came after, including multiple studies that examined how expanding Medicaid affected mortality — and maybe offered less dramatic numbers.
“When they so clearly are cherry-picking, when they clearly have all the information on studies in front of them, it’s concerning,” Meara said. “It’s a situation where you’re going to overpromise and underdeliver.”
Our Ruling
Sanders said a recent study suggested Medicare for All would save $450 billion annually and saves 68,000 lives.
That study does exist. And it cites some evidence. But many of its assumptions are flawed, and experts uniformly told us it overestimates the potential savings. It cherry-picks data in calculating mortality effects.
This statement has some truth, but ignores context that would create a dramatically different impression. We rate it Mostly False.
Bernie Sanders Embraces A New Study That Lowers ‘Medicare For All’s’ Price Tag, But Skepticism Abounds published first on https://smartdrinkingweb.weebly.com/
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The US-China Trade War: Next Week’s Shanghai Meeting is a Tiny Glimmer of Hope
Since the beginning of US-China trade negotiations, this blog has been relentlessly negative on US-China relations, which we usually describe as being in a “straight line decline.” In October, 2018, in China, the United States and the New Normal, we started calling the bad relations between China and the United States the “New Normal” and in that same month, we titled a post Would the Last Company Manufacturing in China Please Turn Off the Lights that mentioned how “it does sometimes feel as though within three years nobody will be making widgets in China anymore.”
In April of this year, the Wall Street Journal quoted Dan Harris from this blog (and my law firm) in a cover story, Trade Deal Alone Won’t Fix Strained U.S.-China Business Relations, saying the following:
“There is no way any deal between China and the U.S. will cause everyone on both sides to say, ‘We were just kidding,’” said Dan Harris, managing partner at Harris Bricken, a law firm that specializes in investment with China. “The tariffs and the arrests and the threats and the heightened risk have impacted companies and that will not go away.”
Then on May 4, 2019, (one day before President Trump’s May 5 tariff tweet that changed everything) we wrote The US-China Trade War: Winter is Coming on how no matter what happens in the US-China trade war, things will NOT revert back to the way they had been for foreign companies:
The above is but an introduction to what we see as China’s diminished future for foreign companies. Since pretty much the inception of the US-China trade war we have been saying that we do not see its end because we have always seen it as more than a trade war. At first, we saw the US tariffs as an effort by the United States to get China to “open up” and “act right” on things like the internet and IP. But because we did not see China changing on these things, we did not see the trade war ending. Vice-President Pence’s speech on China earlier this week has only reinforced for me that the trade war between China and the US will not be ending any time soon, if ever. The New York Times has called that speech the Portent of a New Cold War between the United States and China and China’s own Global Times wrote an article entitled, Pence speech shows Washington’s tougher policy on China. Don’t blame us. We are just the messengers. Things are getting very tough between China and the United States right now and the trade war is just a symptom of that, not the disease.
The United States is aggressively and unabashedly doing what it can to isolate China and to remove it from the world of international trade. The new free trade agreement between the United States and Canada is further proof of this as it essentially blocks Canada and Mexico from engaging in free trade with China. See What Trump’s new trade pact signals about China. Word is that shutting out China is going to become a regular thing in all new U.S. trade agreements. See US Commerce’s Ross eyes anti-China ‘poison pill’ for new trade deals. Will the EU and Japan and Latin America play ball on this? I predict that most if not all of them will.
So yes, the above is why we will continue to write about what North American and Latin American and European and Australian businesses should be doing to deal with the new normal regarding China. We are writing these things because we value our credibility and because we presume our readers value our no-holds barred advice — threatening emails or not.
We have been writing about China’s diminished future for foreign companies since pretty much the inception of the US-China trade war because we have always seen it as more than a trade war. At first, we saw the US tariffs as an effort by the United States to get China to “open up” and “act right” on things like the internet and IP. But because we did not (and do not) see China changing on these things, we did not (and do not) see the trade war ending.
But the above posts and nearly all of the other posts on China trade and China relations with the West and on everything Huawei (See The Huawei Indictments are the New Normal) were written by either Dan Harris or Steve Dickinson, both of whom are international lawyers and part of what we in my law firm call “The International Law Team.”
The above is my long introduction to this post (which is also long) because I am writing this from a different perspective than Dan and Steve because the bulk of my work is in International Trade. I am an international trade lawyer and a part of my law firm’s international trade law team. I therefore necessarily see the U.S.-China tiff from more of a trade law perspective and less of a political perspective than Dan and Steve and that is my slant of this post on the eve of renewed trade negotiations between the United States and China.
United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and United States Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin are heading to Shanghai next week for trade talks with China. The choice of Shanghai is interesting. One analyst suggested China chose Shanghai as the venue to send the message that “trade should be trade, and politics should be politics”. Even Mnuchin invoked the spirit of the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué, which paved the way for rapprochement between the U.S. and China — and ironically the current trade mess in which the two countries find themselves. Perhaps the hosts are thinking of a different kind of optics. There is arguably no image more associated worldwide with China’s economic miracle than Shanghai’s Lujiazui skyline. Just look up “china economic miracle” on Google Images for confirmation. It is hard to reconcile the portrait of China as an economic villain with the Pearl of the Orient’s vibrancy.
Before delving into the prospects for the upcoming talks, it is worth taking a step back and remembering how we got to this point. As mentioned above, the Shanghai Communiqué Mnuchin celebrated set in motion a process that would over time entangle the Chinese economy with those of the United States and other nations in an unprecedented way. Though Cold War realities were initially foremost in America’s thinking, China policy soon became undergirded with the idea that increased engagement with the United States and it democratic, free-market allies would inexorably lead China down their same path.
There was certainly much change, but mostly only to the extent that it allowed China to become an export powerhouse. One can imagine the thrill felt by foreign executives as they saw the first cases of Coke cross the Shenzhen River into Mainland China in 1979, representing a symbolic first step towards the final realization of the long-standing Western dream of opening up China. Yet 30 years later, in some fundamental ways little has changed for foreign business. Sure, it has been a relatively smooth ride for the KFCs, Colgates and Nikes of the world, who contribute mightily to China’s state coffers. But for many foreign businesses, their China experience has been mostly a negative one, especially in the last year or so. As a longtime China expat, I heard so many tales of foreign business woe that I became jaded. Business partners colluding with local authorities to edge out foreign investors. Rampant counterfeiting and infringement of foreign brands. Continued restrictions on market access. Capricious immigration policies. China nightmares remain unabated despite repeated Chinese government assurances of coming improvements. Mr. China remains as much of a cautionary tale today.
Ultimately, the Chinese leadership viewed and continues to view Reform and Opening as a transactional mechanism. Reform and Opening were never China’s objectives; continuity of Party rule has always been. This is why China continues to pick and choose when it comes to reform, in a way that has led to a collision with the United States and the EU. By the time the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign got underway, it was clear to most that China would not follow the path of South Korea and Taiwan towards democracy, negating the one hope that secured for China so much patience over the years. In this environment, Donald Trump decided it was time to bring China’s bad behavior to the forefront.
The current trade war’s first salvo was fired in March 2018, when President Trump directed the USTR to propose a list of products to be subjected to tariffs, in response to the findings of the USTR Section 301 investigation launched in August 2017. Ultimately 1,300 types of products were listed.
China retaliated with tariffs on 128 U.S. products and asked the WTO for consultations on the U.S. tariffs. After a visit to Washington by Vice Premier Liu He, China’s point man on trade, the two countries announced there “was a consensus on taking effective measures to substantially reduce the United States trade deficit in goods with China.” This led Secretary Mnuchin to declare the trade war was “on hold.” However, and perhaps reflecting disagreements within the Trump team, shortly thereafter 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of imports were announced. These tariffs went into effect on June 6 ($34 billion) and August 8 ($16 billion). China retaliated in kind.
In September 2018, the U.S. announced 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products, which were raised to 25% on May 5, 2019. China’s expected retaliation came on June 1, in the form on tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. imports.
Presidents Trump and Xi met during the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan and announced a truce. The upcoming talks in Shanghai are the first high-level encounter since that Osaka meeting.
The smart money is on keeping expectations low. As an analyst quoted by the SCMP noted that the “talks will only result in a small step.” Still, even a small step would be a welcome respite from the spiral of escalation we have seen over the past year. The key question is, what exactly might that small step be?
A rollback in tariffs is one option. China has previously demanded all tariffs be eliminated before a deal can be reached. This is surely a no-starter for the Trump team, which in fact would like to keep some tariffs in place even after a deal is made. However, having slapped tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, the U.S. side has plenty of room to maneuver, allowing it to simultaneously reduce the tariff burden considerably, while still leaving meaningful tariffs in place.
On the issue of Huawei, the introduction of a bipartisan bill in Congress that would lock the Shenzhen-based telco into the Commerce Department’s blacklist complicates matters. Paradoxically, however, the Democrats jump onto the Huawei bandwagon could help the Trump negotiators in two ways. First, it moves the goalposts in a way that allows the administration to do a lot without accomplishing anything when it comes to Huawei. Second, Lighthizer and Mnuchin can now point to concrete evidence that a Democratic victory in 2020 will not give China any respite from American wrath. Better the devil you know….
As for China’s side of the bargain, hopes of placating the U.S. with purchases of agricultural goods seems to have faded, as China now seems to realize that no amount of sorghum will get the U.S. to ease up on its core demands. It is critical to remember that the Section 301 investigation that provided the legal basis for the tariffs concerned Chinese government practices “related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation”. In the absence of meaningful Chinese concessions on these areas, it is hard to see the U.S. budging on either tariffs or Huawei.
The Section 301 investigation report provides a clear picture of what the U.S. would like to see happen regarding these critical areas. Last month, China announced it will open up new sectors to foreign investment and it may offer further liberalization.
As difficult as it may be for some Dragon Slayers to accept, not every single line of Chinese jurisprudence has been drafted with a nefarious, China-first agenda in mind. For instance, when Article 43(1) of China’s Joint Venture Regulations call for “fair and reasonable” fees for the use of technology, it is reflecting the basic principle that, “In civil activities, the principles of voluntariness, fairness, making compensation for equal value, honesty and credibility shall be observed” (Art. 4, General Principles of Civil Law). Meanwhile, “Vaguely worded provisions and uncertainty about the applicable rules” are a hallmark of Chinese legislation, and serve as powerful levers with implications that go far beyond foreign direct investment (FDI).
One intriguing, if unlikely, possibility would be the introduction of more specific investment terms into a bilateral treaty (such as the income tax treaty or the consular convention). This could include language that puts Chinese investment into the U.S. under additional scrutiny. It could also provide for special procedures to allow companies like Huawei to obtain technology while providing certain safeguards. This approach would allow the Chinese to save face as far as its own legislation is concerned, while pleasing the Americans (who, given the current tenor in Washington, are unlikely to care too much about protestations from Brussels or Ottawa regarding this side deal).
Speaking of unconventional wisdom, the possibility of non-trade elements playing a role in a deal cannot be discarded. In the lead-up to the talks, Secretary Pompeo called China’s treatment of Uighurs in Xinjiang “the stain of the century,” while Vice President Pence tweeted a condemnation of China’s record on religious freedom. And there is always Hong Kong. This simultaneous push on trade and human rights is consistent with the “whole of government” approach against China called for in the—ironically-named—John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019. Admittedly, it is hard to see where China can budge, especially in the kind of public way the Trump team needs to be able to claim some kind of victory. That said, if it gives him some oxygen on tariffs and Huawei, President Xi might be willing to pull something out of his hat on North Korea or even the South China Sea.
So though must of my law firm’s international lawyers are beset with a severe case of what they hae taken to calling “China promise fatigue syndrome,” I am marginally more optimistic about the US and China at least reaching some sort of deal to stop the decline in trade relations. Not so optimistic that I am not also telling our clients to — if at all possible — move their manufacturing out of China, but optimistic enough to believe that both China and the U.S. might get caught up in the Shanghai spirit just enough next week to keep things moving forward. But not enough not to advocate that if your products are subject to U.S. tariffs you should get going on your China tariff exclusion requests now.
The US-China Trade War: Next Week’s Shanghai Meeting is a Tiny Glimmer of Hope syndicated from https://immigrationattorneyto.wordpress.com/
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Who are the 2019 top most beautiful women in the world?
So here is our list, the best ever. It is limited to women who have achieved a fair level of celebrity based on the world's strongest, smart, desirable, popular, attractive, hot, and most successful women. But lists have a way to inspire debate! So let us know what you think about our top ten and hey, go ahead and make your own in the comments section below!
10. Deepika Padukone
She is not only one of the world's most beautiful women, but also one of the world's best paid Bollywood actresses. She is considered sexy and stylish in India's home country. Not only does she have a stunning smile, but she is also a busy savvy lady. With her endorsements of many products, such as Tissot, Vogue seeing eye glasses, and Pepsi, to name a few. Everyone wants this beauty to represent their brand.
9. Candice Swanepoel
Born in 1988, Candice is a South African. She is best known for being one of Victoria's Secret's angel. For her thick golden blond tendrils and perfect 10 bodies, she sits top on the list. It's also unanimous because, according to Forbes, she was also 10th on last year's highest-earning models. FHM and Maxim also included her sexiest and hottest lists.
8. Emma Watson
Emma Charlotte Duerre Watson is an English model and actress. Born in Paris and raised in Oxfordshire, Watson attended Dragon School and trained as an actress in Stagecoach Theater Arts ' Oxford branch.
7. Taylor Swift
This American-born stunner is not only beautiful on the inside but on the outside. She successfully branded herself as one of the most loved ladies in show biz. She expresses her personal experiences in songs with which all girls and women can identify. She also gives her fans tremendously. Her achievements are many, including seven Grammy Awards. Many of the top songwriting associations such as Nashville Songwriters and the Songwriters have also honored her songwriting. She also had 130 million of her singles downloaded, making her one of the top five artists with the biggest sales. The nice things about Taylor are that her success lies with so many things, not just her obvious beauty. She is a great female role model and her inner beauty emanates outward.
6. Katherine Elizabeth Upton
Born in Michigan, this American beauty quickly hit the scene. Kate Upton is really one of the most beautiful women on the planet. Vivid curves and stunning eyes make this model of Sports Illustrated stand out in a crowd. People named her the sexiest woman on the planet. Branded as a modern fashion model with curves that kill, she sits high on many lists for the sexiest and beautiful. Kate knew from a young age that her calling was modeling, she was right.
5. Liu Yifei
Crystal Liu, better known as Liu Yifei, is an actress, singer, and model from China. Liu is widely known in the entertainment industry as "Fairy Sister" for her sweet and delicate image. She was named one of the New Four Dan actresses in China in 2009.
4. Charlize Theron
This beauty born in South Africa was a single child and raised on a farm. She's an Afrikaner (Dutch, German and French). The 40-year-old actress stumbled into fame and a series of events led her to make it in Hollywood. Charlize got on a one-way flight to LA thanks to her mom's support (after having to give up the dream of being a ballerina). She struggled at the beginning and it was the manager at the motel she stayed at that offered to be her manager. A star has been born. She now runs the African Outreach Program and is one of Hollywood's most successful ladies.
3. Alexandra Daddario
Alexandra Anna Daddario is an American actress and model born in 29 years of age. She blew away fans as the daughter of Johnson's daughter of "The Rock" in the San Andreas movie. She's no longer a co-star, she's making her name known while showing everyone she's more than a pretty face. She is also a talented musician. She was the actress featured in Imagine Dragon's "Radioactive" video where she tried to save the puppet-fighting ring in the underground. She's cool like this!
2. Aishwarya Rai Bachchan
Aishwarya's career began when she entered the Miss World pageant she won in 1994. This brought her into the Bollywood film industry. The 41-year-old Bollywood star is one of India's most successful women and celebrities today. She did some modeling assignments and television commercials before winning the pageant. She persevered and found success. She has received countless awards both in India and around the world. The media often dubb her the world's most beautiful woman.
1. Scarlett Johansson
Scarlett Johansson is the sexiest woman alive and always on a list to be one of the most beautiful women in the world. She started her career at a young age and she is a model, actress, and singer. She started out as a child actor in movies like The Horse Whisperer. She eventually went on to play in Woody Allen movies that allowed her to show her talents at an early age. Not only is she named by many different magazines as sexy and most beautiful, but she has unlimited talent. Hope you enjoy this article! Comment your opinion for this article...
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0fIr21dwCek/XM8BQ4MfE3I/AAAAAAAADdU/JnjbrRWwofIf7DFQbZCtEShHdxbcBGyDgCLcBGAs/s400/portrait-1462944_1920.jpg
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Dwayne Hobbs: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know
Dwayne Hobbs was a police chief in the city of Forest Park, which is part of the greater Atlanta metropolitan area. His department was accused of racial profiling and he has been fired after more than four decades on the force.
Here’s what you need to know.
1. Hobbs Was Fired October 1 By a City Council Vote of 3-2
#BREAKING: Forrest Park police chief fired, accused of racial profiling https://t.co/3cgeTmmqtx
— AJC (@ajc) October 2, 2018
Police chief Dwayne Hobbs and his department have reportedly been facing allegations of racial profiling. He has denied the accusations.
Amid that controversy, the Forest Park city council voted to remove Hobbs from his position as police chief. The decision was made late Monday, October 1. The vote was 3-2 in favor of termination. The vote was reportedly divided along racial lines.
Hobbs was not in the room for the vote. The Clayton News Daily reported that Hobbs was watching the meeting via video from an adjacent room. Police Captain Jason Armstrong was named the interim police chief.
2. A City Councilor Would Not Confirm Whether the Allegations of Racial Profiling Prompted the Firing
A packed house for a meeting that decided the fate of one city’s police chief. What a city councilman said when we asked why the chief was fired, at 11. @wsbtv pic.twitter.com/VZStkRUnnU
— Justin Wilfon (@JustinWilfonWSB) October 2, 2018
WSB-TV in Atlanta spoke with Hobbs a week prior to the vote. He told the news station that he had asked the city council whether he had done anything wrong, and they told him he had not.
After the city council voted to terminate Hobbs, a WSB-TV reporter questioned Councilman Dabouze Antoine. He asked whether the accusations made about racial profiling were the reason for the sudden firing. But Antoine did not confirm that. Antoine told the reporter, “Well, I can’t say much now because the reason we made this decision is: It wasn’t good.”
Antoine also stated that the “people wanted change. I’m a voice for the people and the city decided to go a different direction.”
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3. Dwayne Hobbs Worked for the Forest Park Police Department for 45 Years
Dwayne Hobbs has spent his entire professional career with the Forest Park Police Department. According to his LinkedIn profile, Hobbs joined the force in July of 1973. He has been chief of police for 22 years.
He began his career as an officer while still in school. Hobbs attended Clayton State University from 1973 to 1975. He earned an associate’s degree in criminal justice. He returned to college in 1996 and obtained a Master of Public Administration.
In the bio section, Hobbs described himself as a “Public servant with commitment to the community.”
4. The City of Forest Park is Part of the Greater Atlanta Region & the Majority of the Population is Black or Hispanic; Hobbs is White
The city of Forest Park is located about nine miles south of Atlanta. According to 2017 estimates from the Census Bureau, the population was about 19,000 people. The poverty rate is estimated to be 34.5 percent, which is more than twice as high as the national average.
Forest Park is a city in which minority groups make up the majority of the population. According to City-Data, nearly 40 percent of the city’s residents are African-American. 30 percent of the population is Hispanic. Another 10 percent identify as Asian.
Hobbs told WSB-TV that the Forest Park police department investigates, on average, 4 or 5 complaints of racial profiling per year. He denied that the department had an issue with profiling. Hobbs insisted that if there was ever evidence of an officer acting inappropriately, “there’d be swift justice.”
5. Hobbs Has Been Known to Post His Support for Fellow Law Enforcement Officers on Facebook
On his public Facebook page, Dwayne Hobbs posted the most often in support of the police community. In 2014, he shared multiple posts about a case in New York City, when two NYPD officers were shot and killed in Brooklyn. Investigators said Officers Rafael Ramos and Wenjian Liu were ambushed while sitting in their patrol car.
In December 2014, Hobbs shared an article about Navy Seal Robert O’Neill. He is the veteran who claimed to have fired the shots that killed Osama Bin Laden. The article was about how O’Neill allegedly injured five would-be burglars who broke into his home. Hobbs commented, “Karma at its finest.”
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source https://heavy.com/news/2018/10/dwayne-hobbs/
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