#less is not more in this situation saying you support a ceasefire is not enough it’s the bare minimum

[bitfruity]

i was honestly really disappointed in the joint artist’s statement shared by olly and all who signed it. i know they’ve all signed contracts they legally have to abide by or face legal consequences, but i was still hoping for more. it only takes one broadcaster or contestant to start the domino affect of threats to withdraw. if not that, they could boycott the preparties or refuse interviews/publicity (which is what esc needs to build viewership). the media would have to talk about why some of the contestants are boycotting due to isnotreals genocide in palestine. the contestants should be doing everything they contractually can to bring attention to this.

wearing the artists for ceasefire pins is a nice gesture but it’s purposefully not loud. if you don’t know what it means it goes unnoticed. and i think that barely counts as a statement when most of the general public would have to google it to find out. it would be much more affective to wear a palestinian flag to show meaningful support and it would piss isnotreal off. that being said the palestinian flag is banned in esc and i assume any mention of palestine or the palestinian people as well.

so… what do we do here? what’s the point of all this if their support is superficial? we need actual statements and risks to be taken. i’m sorry but the excuse that they shouldn’t have to sacrifice their opportunity at esc is asinine to me. it’s unfortunate that they’ve been put in this position, yes. but people are dying, children are dying. we’ve been watching a genocide being carried out before our eyes. countless war crimes committed and bragged about with no consequence or signs of stopping. it’s a sacrifice people need to be making. to hopefully save lives and help shift policy.

speaking out and boycotting makes a difference. it could force the ebu to make isnotreal withdraw (let’s be honest they’ll never ban them). or if isnotreal sees that esc isn’t going to be profitable for them and the public opinion is against them they might withdraw themselves. the whole point they’re in esc is to garner support and promote propaganda. we have to show them that that will not be possible. no one will watch. no one will do interviews. no one will participate. the ebu only cares when the money stops. remember that.

so please follow the bds’s call to boycott eurovision

there’s also this twitter account isrbreaksrules dedicated to calling out isnotreals blatant violations of the ebu’s rules

[phoenixyfriend]

Michigan just gave us the rhetorical weapon that could push Biden and the DNC to turn their backs on Israel.

Okay so this is amazing news. Michigan was going to be a key state in the push to get Biden, and the DNC as a whole, to start pressuring Israel, and they have just proven that they have that power.

Background: Michigan is a swing state, and it has 16 votes in the electoral college. Winning Michigan was a major factor in Biden's win back in 2020, and much of that rested on the Arab-American vote. It was also a major factor in Hillary Clinton's loss to Donald Trump in 2016. She lost the state by ten thousand, seven hundred votes.

Praxis: For obvious reasons, Arab-Americans are incredibly upset with Biden's support for Israel, and support in that demographic has gone from 59% in the 2020 election to less than 17% now. As a form of protest, Arab-Americans in Michigan started a campaign to get voters to check "uncommitted" in the Democratic primary. This is an actual box that can be checked, though some less-organized pushes also suggested writing in 'ceasefire' like New Hampshire primary voters did.

The goal was to get at least 10,000 'uncommitted' votes, as that is how many Hillary lost by.

As Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, the first Arab mayor of this majority-Arab city, said:

"We're not sizable enough to make a candidate win, but we're sizable enough to make a candidate lose."

(Source: NPR, 2/25/24)

Result:

As of 10:49 PM EST, 2/27, there are thirty-nine thousand uncommitted votes, according to CNN, which is doing live coverage.

NPR was reporting 30k at 10:14.

As a caveat, New York Times is saying that each of the last three Michigan Dem Primaries had about 20k uncommitted votes, so the 35k isn't all the push for pro-Palestine stances in Congress, but that's still a jump of almost 20k, which is way, way more than the goal.

And they aren't done counting the votes yet. Barely 30% of votes are in. The goal has been blown out of the water.

Other states are reaching out for advice on how to replicate the results.

This is big news.

So can we relax?

Fuck no.

Do what Michigan did. Vote in the Dem primary, and vote uncommitted or write in "ceasefire."

But on a more daily basis, if you have a Democratic candidate, lean on this.

Tell them it will be repeated elsewhere.

This could very well lose the election for Biden and more. The Democrats can't afford another four years of Trump, and they know it. The loss of Michigan can and will tank this election for them, especially since other states that helped Biden win, like Georgia, were also won on demographics that are growing increasingly upset by the situation in Gaza.

Go to the Michigan section of this post and use that in your calls and emails.

But remember. Call your reps. Call your senators. Call your governor, if you'd like. And if they're a Democrat, you bring this up. Be polite, the staffer isn't making these decisions. They might just be an intern. But bring it up and tell them that we are going to lose the presidency if we do not sanction Israel and actually pressure them into not only pulling out of Gaza and the West Bank, but paying reparations.

[qqueenofhades]

Do you think part of what makes people feel like voting isn’t worth it because things don’t get better under democrats is because we can’t see what would have happened? Like I see a lot of people saying “well biden hasn’t made america much better so there’s no point” but it’s like they don’t understand that under a republican they would actively do everything they could to cause more harm. It’s like they don’t understand that 1. The president can’t do much, and 2. IT WOULD BE WORSE. like they don’t understand the possibilities. Idk people just frustrate me

I'm sorry, as I know you're just relaying what these people think and not claiming so yourself, but the whole "things don't get better under Biden/Democrats" line to which we are subjected so very, miserably often is a lie!!! It is demonstrably a lie! It is peddled by people who deliberately live in their echo-chamber leftist misinformation bubbles and either don't read the news, don't accept anything less than the Magical Socialist Revolution Now, and don't think partial or incremental progress (aka the only kind of progress that exists) is valid. "Biden hasn't single-handedly fixed everything wrong with America and the world after the most damaging presidency ever to exist and 250+ years of flaws, while other countries actually are their own actors with agency making complex choices, so we shouldn't vote for him" is a bullshit lie and I'm tired of it!!!

(Again. Sorry. This is not directed at you. This is just my frustration with this entire ridiculous situation speaking.)

We have had multiple elections now where people voted for Democrats, which resulted in abortion protections, protections for LGBTQ people, the biggest climate legislation ever to pass Congress/be signed into law (the Inflation Reduction Act), vast improvements in the job market, executive actions both large and small, improvements in labor and the economy, a general democratic system, a defense of the rule of law, a warning against fascism, and everything else that Trump trampled on in 4 years and will finish the job of doing if this godforsaken country is either right-wing-zealot or left-wing-zealot enough to put him back into office. (Like, people. Google is free. You're welcome to look up the improvements Biden has actually made, but that would harm your Narrative.) So much of this misinformation is also peddled by people who are proud that they don't have a clue how the American government works and/or deliberately lie about it: see all the claims that it was Biden's fault for not magically stopping a Trump-stacked SCOTUS, selected for the express purpose of overturning Roe, from overturning Roe. Because the president could just unilaterally overturn the Supreme Court with no problems at all if He Really Wanted To, I guess. Even if that is literally not the way it has ever functioned in history.

All the noxious Republicans in state legislatures passing anti-trans/anti-abortion/anti-voting laws ARE NOT SOMETHING BIDEN CAN STOP. If you're going to criticize him for not doing something, for God's sake at least make it for something he can do (like not calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, though I would argue he's already taking a more nuanced approach than the entirety of the American establishment during the War on Terror). And then vote for him when/if he follows it up, not just throw your hands in the air and scream about how you Can't Possibly Sully Yourself (especially when there is some very selective support going on here and a deliberate white-washing of how many orders of magnitude worse absolutely everything else in America and the world would be under Trump. So.)

I'm tired of it. I'm really, really tired of it. I've been trying to cut back on my politics posting because my mental health is bad right now and I often feel like a broken record screaming into the void. But. Yeah. Anyway. Whoof.

[hmshermitcraft]

Scott(transmasc) owns a flower/cafe shop it was stressful because he has a child(fanmade and 4)named Graceline. Now he has to take care of her alone since Jimmy cheated with Tango. Luckily he's coworkers are there to help him bdubs, grian, Cleo, xisuma, xb, and Martyn. Now bdubs is kinda in the same situation he's lovers etho/skizz/impulse kicked him out of their poly and hero team. He's child is 1 and he's name's joy because he helped him a lot. Grian and xisuma was overworked by the hero commission so they'd runaway as to not die. Cleo and Martyn has been his best friends since they were kids and now despises Jimmy especially since he's a hero. Ren is Martyn lover and gem/pearl are Cleo lovers who are changing the hero commission after what they did to xisuma and grian. Xb is quite normal in a way main reason is his lover keralis is number 1 hero who's actually competent at his job. They help everyone no matter what only Scott doesn't know is that it's a ceasefire area. So when Jimmy and etho/skizz/impulse comes groveling for what they did now at first they couldn't forgive them so quickly. It takes quite awhile to forgive them so they became poly with Scott/Tango/Jimmy and bdubs/skizz/etho/impulse. Now mind you they got a lot of shovel talks by everyone and also after convincing keralis the hero commission changed to be more humane.

Scott's always considered his shop a safe place. He has Madeline to protect, firstly. But he's had enough petty drama to last a lifetime. His rules are simple: no fighting, if you don't respect people then you're out. It's nice to be able to support his friends, and to be supported by them in return. Even if Grian and Martyn keep replacing the sugar in their break room with salt...

He just didn't realise it was 'officially' a safe place. Something actually designated in whatever guidelines the heroes and villains follow. He doesn't know who made it official, but he likes to boast his coffee is just that good.

Cleo was also very frank in telling Scott to turn Jimmy's attempt to come back into his life down. Immediately. She'd punch him, if needed, but how dare he show his face around here again after what he did. He's lucky Madeline isn't old enough to feel the true betrayal of what Jimmy did to them.

Scott honestly agrees with her. It takes a long time for him to let Jimmy into the coffee shop at all, and even longer to be out front whilst Jimmy is there. All his friends (and employees too, he guesses) banded together without asking to keep Jimmy away from him. They do the same for Bdubs, when his exes realise where he works.

Bdubs ends up forgiving them first. The three worked hard to regain his trust. The pressure of the hero organisation was messing with them, badly. They knew Bdubs had Joy to look after, but for some reason all they could think about was how it would pull them down. They didn't have time to look after a child, plus being heroes and the danger... But they never should have valued that over Bdubs. They've been to therapy and they're working to improve themselves.

Scott is less easy to convince, because his wasn't a simple break up. He follows Cleo when she says 'once a cheater, always a cheater.' How is he supposed to trust that it won't happen again? Especially with the person Jimmy cheated on him with.

Maybe Scott is an idiot, but he lets them in. And... They're good to him. They help out at the café, they don't keep Scott in the dark about their jobs (Jimmy always used to do that. Be out at all hours and Scott would only ever find out why on the news.) Madeline adores them both.

He thinks Keralis has made it very clear what will happen if they mess up this second chance. But Scott makes sure to repeat it too.

[pynkhues]

Your ignorance is very disturbing. Seeing as you’ve been outspoken about other issues in the world and This genocide is what you choose to ignore is very telling of your character. Still reblogging edits of stranger things and ones of Noah specifically after he went out with those stickers is purely concerning.

You wake up everyday and chose to ignore to read and educate yourself because it’s the easier route shatters everything else you “speak” for. You should know better, you should do better.

Not saying you should speak about it but I am saying you should at least be mindful.

However, Palestinian lives don’t mean shit to you.

I'm sorry that you feel that way, anon.

You're right - I have been less active in speaking about the Israel-Hammas War and the genocide of Palestinians on tumblr (particularly this account, I have been posting about it a bit on my main one @owlishgirl) - but the reasons for that is less about a lack of care or ignorance, and more about the fact that I've been less active on tumblr in general. I also think that action on this topic is incredibly important and needs to be just that - action.

I don't know if you're referring to my response to an ask a few months ago where I said I didn't know enough to share my thoughts on it, but if you are, hopefully you saw in that that I was talking about the fact that I'd been, at the time, active as a part of a crucial political referendum here which would've enshrined an Indigenous Voice to Parliament in the Constitution (unfortunately that did not pass, and there has been a period of mourning for my friends and colleagues, for the First Nations people in this country, and this country in general), and have been supporting my sister in family court with her abusive ex (sad to say that will be ongoing into next year).

Still, over the last few months, I have been educating myself, and have been involved in the Creatives for Palestine movement here, and in working with, and supporting organisations in Australia in their work towards a ceasefire and an end to Israel's apartheid against Palestine.

I'm trying to put my energy into spaces that I think might move the dial on this topic, and frankly, I don't think posts on tumblr do all that much in that regard.

And just a gentle reminder since the situation is affecting all of us emotionally, and some more than others, I know that I've shared a lot of myself on here over the years, but you don't actually know me, you don't know what I think, and you certainly don't know what I do when it comes to collective action and campaigning for change.

And even if you did, if you think this is the way to get people on your side or to move them in a way that you personally want or approve of, I'd urge you to reconsider your tone and your tact.

I'd also suggest doing it off anon - it certainly undermines your point to demand action and accountability from me while ensuring you yourself can't be held to the same.

[sissa-arrows]

Democrats expect people seeing the devastation of their people, complete erasure of bloodlines, while begging their government for a ceasefire and being ignored, to ignore the pain, suck it up and vote, but have no restraint in saying well “enjoy your deportation and camps” then. If the people of Gaza can face the end of their world with total and complete trust in God, who are we to just vote for the person who provides the bombs to their suffering, instead of saying no, we refuse your false choice & we place our trust in God. Democrats aren’t forgetting Palestinians exist, they are currently cheering on their genocide and demanding the U.S. keep funding it. Way more exciting for them that pretending nothing is happening.

Every single time when elections happen in the West, white people remembers that PoC exist.

They remember that we are registered to vote. And every single time their go to situation is to say “vote for the lesser evil because then it means we will get to pressure them more easily”. And every single time once 99% Hitler is elected instead of 100% Hitler* they don’t respect their part of the deal and actually call us out and hate on us when we have the audacity to protest to pressure them.

They will always blame people of color before blaming white people telling them “your lack of vote/your vote for this candidate who has no chance is the reason why the most evil won”. No the piece of shit won because people voted for him and because you refused to present us with an option who isn’t dehumanizing and killing us.

Regarding American democrats specifically they also have the audacity to tell people of color not living in the US to mind their own business. WE FUCKING WISH WE COULD IGNORE YOUR PIECES OF SHIT POLITICIANS BUT GUESS WHAT THEIR GENOCIDAL BEHAVIOR AFFECT US. When Biden lies and say he saw the 40 beheaded babies people in France quote him to me as a trustworthy source. When the US have the fucking right to veto UN resolution it affects all of us. When the US dehumanize us it makes it easier for the rest of the West to also do it. When we see children, women, men, just Palestinians being murdered in cold blood with the US cheering and those people look like us, have the same names as we do… if FUCKING AFFECT US.

Bitches go “I don’t agree with what Biden is doing but I will still vote for him regardless” and when you say that’s called unconditional support they deny it. They are not even willing PRETEND to withhold their vote to put pressure on the democrats they think their strongly (not even that strong) worded letters in which they say they will vote for him no matter what will help. They pull shit like “actually politicians are more likely to listen to their voters” YES IF SAID VOTERS TELL THEM THEY WON’T VOTE FOR THEM ANYMORE BECAUSE OF THEIR SUPPORT FOR GENOCIDE.

But then it’s because they never cared. Voting out/keeping out the worst evil has never been about people of color rights it has always been about allowing white people to feel like they did enough. The same people who were protesting under Trump were/are silent when Obama was the one putting children in cages, when Obama was bombing the Middle East, when Biden kept putting babies in cage. It’s never been about us and about what won’t affect white people. Because at the end of the day the lesser of two evil doesn’t affect/barely affect white people while the worst evil does.

*: The 99% Hitler and 100% Hitler is a real quote from Twitter. White guy said “if your choice is between 100% Hitler and Hitler but 1% less evil your moral obligation is to vote for the second one.” Many white people agreed and people of color were like “WTF?! If your choice is between 100% Hitler and 99% Hitler your moral obligation is to fucking revolt and overthrow the government that put you in this situation”

They wonder how the holocaust happened while casually admitting that they have the moral obligation to vote for 99% Hitler.

[the-jam-to-the-unicorn]

With all the talks / conversations between the leaders and everything going on...I'm so fucking confused what actually might help Ukraine or what would be an Ukrainian win and what would be a Russian win. Could you clarify this maybe?

An absolutely not complete list...

What helps Ukraine:

demarcation line (February 24) and negotiations about the occupied territories with the goal to give them back to Ukraine

complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory (including occupied regions)

harder / more sanctions

no funding for Russia (buying oil, gas,...)

getting back territory

more (heavy) weapons

more support of all kind from the world

What helps Russia:

giving them territory

allowing them to stay in the occupied regions, without talks about giving them back

ceasefire

less sanctions (or not hard enough)

still buying Russian oil, gas,...

not the right kinds of weapons (or no weapons at all)

forgetting about the situation in Ukraine / no longer talking about it

still saying that Ukraine can't win this war

believing the Russian propaganda

appeasement politics

[musutofu]

【 Dating Kirishima 】

Kirishima is an extroverted guy who can make fast friends with anyone so he has amicable history with you before he even thinks to see you in a less platonic light. But when he does he’ll make it known the moment he gets his feelings in order and decides that he’d like to pursue a romantic relationship with you. Usually he’d be quick to confide in a friend and ask for advice on things he isn’t completely sure about just to get a second opinion, but in this situation Kirishima would rather trust his own gut than run the risk of getting talked out of confessing his feelings. And he’d rather you hear his confession in his own words, from his and his heart, as opposed to through word of mouth from someone else.

He’s very candid with his emotions and won’t try to hide anything from you. Whether or not you decide to return his affections is completely your own choice to make and he won’t try to do anything outside the norm to sway your feelings in a more favorable direction. Kirishima would be completely at ease knowing that you’re aware that of his feelings for you even if you decide to never act on his confession. It isn’t his place to try to force you to feel one way or another for him and he won’t be hurt or act differently with you depending on your answer. You could take your sweet time giving him an answer or reject him outright and it wouldn’t make any difference in your existing relationship.

Even when you start dating his expressions of affection are understated. Kirishima isn’t one to draw constant attention to your relationship but it’s easy to tell that you’re a couple in the more subtle details. Though he won’t try to deny your relationship or tiptoe around the truth if someone were to ask him for a straight answer on the matter. Because while Kirishima believes he doesn’t have to constantly shout from the rooftops that you’re dating–as long as you and the people that really matter know then there’s no real need to announce it to the entire world–he’s not above gloating about it when given the opportunity. He’s quite proud to call you his significant other and if anyone makes the mistake of asking about it they’ll be on the receiving end of his long, boastful tirade about how happy you make him.

Proud doesn’t even begin to describe how it makes Kirishima feel to say he’s dating you. It doesn’t matter if he was sitting with his feelings for you for hours or weeks, he’s over the moon about the fact that you agreed to date him. No matter how long you’ve been dating your relationship will never really lose its honeymoon phase feeling because Kirishima is so infatuated with you that it always feels like you’ve just gotten together. He likes referring to you as his significant other or with overly sweet pet names whenever you come up in conversation just to be able to say that you belong to him. But just as excited as he is to say you’re his he likes hearing you say that he’s yours. He’ll introduce himself as your boyfriend and won’t feel slighted in the least if someone refers to him as your significant other rather than his name. He wears it like a badge of honor.

Touching is something Kirishima does unconsciously with his close friends so dating him will only escalate his apparent need to touch you. If you’re standing still he’ll take the opportunity to sidle up and hug you from behind. If you’re sitting down you’ll either be perched on his lap or he’ll be using yours as a pillow. If you’re walking he won’t be far behind as he lets you lead him along with you by his hand in yours. He’s learned to find less weighted ways of touching you as you aren’t always in the mood to be hung on. Kirishima has decided playing with your hair is a close second to touch you as he isn’t exactly touching your body and can easily let you go if you go to move. It’s also something he’s picked up from you as he noticed you enjoy playing with his hair when it’s unstyled.

After awhile Kirishima will resolve to act as though you’re joined at the hip unless you say otherwise. He isn’t annoying about it but it’s hard to miss the fact that he’s following after you like a lovesick puppy. And it isn’t a constant annoyance, either. If you do decide there’s something you want to do alone he’ll respect your independence and leave you to it. Kirishima can appreciate that you both have lives outside of each other and knows when to back off before his presence becomes overbearing but until that point he’d accompany you everywhere you’ll let him. It could be traditional dates, running errands, or lazing about in each other’s company; he just likes being around you, although he can function normally without you. It’s companionship rather than clinginess.

While he loves being around you if he’s not there fit the beginning of something he won’t try to insert himself into the ending unless you ask it of him. Kirishima respects your privacy and won’t try to add himself into a situation you didn’t invite him into, even if he wants to. You’ve come to appreciate this trait when it comes to having bad days. If you want to deal with things yourself he’ll let you. He’s not one to hover and will move on to do something on his own until you find him yourself instead of trying to crowbar himself into the situation. Kirishima will let you know that he’s there for you if and when you’re ready to talk but he won’t force you to speak to him if you’re not up to it. He just wants you to know that his there to support you. Because while he respects your independence it’s important to him that you know you don’t have to go through things alone as long as he’s around.

Protective is almost an understatement when it comes to his Kirishima feels about your well being and overall happiness. He knows very well that you’ve managed just fine without him for years but he’s here now and he won’t let anything harm you. If he hears someone has said something to upset you or cause you harm he’ll be all over them in an instant. Perhaps they’ll be given a chance to explain and apologize but if you seem particularly upset or Kirishima is in a less patient mood he’ll let them know it isn’t okay to mess with you whether he’s around or not. And he certainly doesn’t appreciate people making you uncomfortable with unwanted attention or advances. He trusts you wholeheartedly and isn’t constantly worrying if he sees you talking to someone in an overly friendly way, even if they’re a stranger, but he doesn’t appreciate seeing people take advantage of how seemingly unattached you are. In most situations he’ll give you a chance to sort it out on your own as you know how to deal with bullies and uninvited suitors but if they persist he won’t sit back and allow it.

Trust is very important to Kirishima since it’s so easy for people to take advantage of him because he is so friendly. He’s had people exploit his kind and easygoing nature and while it hasn’t made him any less trusting–he’d much rather be an optimist and assume the best of everyone until they prove him wrong–it has made him realize how valuable trust is. Kirishima will never lie to you even if it would benefit him to do so because he knows it’ll come back to haunt him in the future. And as he’s promised to always be truthful with you no matter the consequences he expects the same from you. He’d rather hear the truth from you than from someone else even if it’s something that might hurt him to hear. If you ever break his trust it will be nearly impossible to earn back especially since he’s never been anything less than honest with you. It’d make him feel like you don’t respect him if you were to ever tell him a lie to his face. Although he trusts you enough not to.

His big heart gets in the way of things sometimes and has caused more than one fight between the two of you. It’s not to say you don’t appreciate the fact that Kirishima wears his heart on his sleeve, just that it isn’t always beneficial. Sometimes he’ll completely turn his brain off and think with his heart alone which doesn’t always result in the best possible outcomes. It’s hard to argue with him when you’d agree if the situation didn’t call for a more logical approach. Neither of you enjoy fighting but it’s hard for either of you to back down once you’ve convinced yourselves that you’re in the right. And your fights never cause massive rifts in your relationship. Kirishima refuses to make you feel like you’re loved any less even when you’re at each other’s throat and will call a ceasefire when things get too heated. In the end, no matter who was in the wrong, you both apologize for letting the situation escalate to the point where you needed to fight in the first place.

Saying I love you isn’t as daunting a task to Kirishima as it is for most because he shows you with his actions exactly how he feels about you, saying it out loud isn’t any different. He may not say it often but he says it when it matters and then some. Kirishima won’t expect you to say it back especially when he says it early on. He knows that you’ll say it when you want to and when you think you need to. He isn’t afraid that you’ve fallen out of love with him if you haven’t said it in a while and you aren’t overwhelmed when he says it often.

[billehrman]

The Race to the Bottom

Monetary authorities around the world are using an old playbook: lowering interest rates and the value of their currency in the hopes of stimulate growth in their region. Unfortunately, it won’t work in today's VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambigous) environment.

Our blog last week, “Global Uncertainty Trumps Lower Interest Rates” was on the mark. It may be helpful to read it again. Our thesis was that there was little or no corporate demand for money no matter what the interest rate was due to global uncertainty centered around trade. Who wants to spend in today’s uncertain environment? We blamed Trump and his administration’s actions—not monetary policy—for holding back growth here and abroad. That view has only been reinforced by the key events of last week. There were continued moves down in interest rates around the world. Global growth continues to slow with deflationary forces rising. Risks remain to the downside without trade deals.

Three major countries: India, Thailand and New Zealand, “lowered interest rates (last week) in a series of unexpected moves that shook the currency markets just two days after China allowed the renminbi to weaken” above 7 to the dollar which prompted Trump to label China a currency manipulator claiming they are ratcheting up the tensions between our two countries as well as rattling global markets. Why shouldn’t the renminbi weaken as growth in China is slowing, monetary policy is easing, and the government wants to sustain export growth? China is just using the same playbook that all countries utilize to sustain growth. Why not? And don’t forget the tensions in Hong Kong, too, hurting their currency! The key question remaining is whether the trade conflict will turn into something much larger—a currency war. If so, there are no winners. We doubt that will occur but the markets are on pins and needles worrying about one.

While we continue to believe that the U.S. is best positioned to weather the trade storm, we are growing increasingly cautious short term as we expect Trump to go to the wall raising tariffs the full 25% in the fall on all Chinese exports hoping to lower them next winter/spring prior to elections after some sort of a deal is reached. Trump recognizes that now is the time for maximum pressure on China knowing full well that the financial markets will suffer only to reverse course next year before the election if/when a deal is reached, and tariffs come down. Unfortunately, we expect that the Chinese recognize Trump’s playbook too, so they must decide whether they are better off dealing with Trump today or a Democratic president in 2021 if that occurs. Biden would take a more accommodative stance toward China than Elizabeth Warren who seems even further to the right on dealing with China than Trump. Is it better for China to deal with the devil they know or take the risk of dealing with an unknown? That’s a good question. We think that the Chinese will decide to deal with Trump in the end. And, Trump is likely to accept a deal even if not a really good one if it helps his election chances. No deal would hurt him for sure as the economy and financial markets would only continue to suffer. The bottom line is that we expect a deal over the next 6-8 months. You can easily guess what happens then to all financial markets around the world. We would use any further weakness ahead to build positions in great global companies selling at recession level valuations. We are setting up an options strategy to do just that to minimize the risk if we are wrong. Right now, we own defensive stocks with high dividend yields, super-growth companies that do not have exposure to China and many special situations.

Our current view remains that there is no place like home, but we do see risks rising globally including in the U.S.. While our market is statistically undervalued for investors with a longer time frame, we do see rising short-term risks geopolitically that could create an unusual opportunity for us to take advantage of as we look over the valley.

We do not believe that lower interest rates globally as the race to the bottom escalates will boost global growth without trade deals.

Let’s look at the most recent data points that support/detract that the U.S. economy is best positioned to weather a potential trade storm next month if the U.S. begins tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese exports.

1.) The U.S. consumer along with government fiscal stimulus remains the bedrock of strength underlying our economy for the foreseeable future. Remember that consumer expenditures plus government spending make up over 85% of GNP and both remain in strong uptrends. The number of job openings (JOLT) remains over 7.1 million as of the end of June. The U.S. has created well over 2 million new jobs over the last twelve months with hourly wages rising well in excess of inflation at 3.2%. It does not hurt that the core PCE price index, which is favored by the Fed, increased by 1.6% in June, undershooting the Fed target of 2.0% for the 10th year. Wouldn’t you consider that a pretty good backdrop for continued growth in consumer spending? And then add that the Senate just signed off on the new budget resolution increasing government spending by well over $200 billion over the next two years increasing the fiscal deficit to over $1 trillion.

Now, do you understand why we expect the U.S. economy to continue to expand by 2+% over the next twelve months? But we do see risks to our forecast rising if the trade conflict escalates out of control. It could then clearly impact consumer sentiment which could dampen spending intentions as we enter the all-important Christmas season. Is Trump that foolish? We don’t think so! But we are watching the situation closely and hedging our bets.

We remain convinced that the Fed will lower rates by an additional 25 to 50 basis points before year-end as insurance against the potential negative impact of further global slowing, escalating trade conflicts and rising deflationary forces. Do we feel that the cuts will lead to accelerating domestic growth? Not really as it won't change business psychology/spending intentions one bit. We do believe that the rate cuts will push investors further out on the risk curve which should be the objective/concern of the Fed.

2.) There is no doubt in our minds that growth in China is slowing rapidly despite the recent surprise export number reported last week showing an increase of 3.3% year over year reversing a negative number reported in June. Trade patterns are being impacted by the negative trade rhetoric and we doubt that China can offset weakness on exports to the U.S. by increasing them enough to Europe and Southeast Asia. Continued weakness in imports, down 5.6% from a year ago, was more telling to us and reveals the true weakness in China. China has to worry about rising deflationary forces as evidenced by a 0.3% decline in producer prices from a year ago. It is clear that China must pump up its economy by easing monetary policy further and increasing fiscal stimulus or growth will likely slow to less than 6% before year-end and employment may fail to increase which is now a real risk. That is a formula for pressure on its currency which was evident last week as the yuan plunged past 7. The currency will continue to weaken further unless the PBOC intervenes spending a lot of its reserves which declined by over $15 billion in July alone to $3.1 trillion. Problems in Hong Kong as not helping its currency for sure.

There is no doubt that China needs a trade deal more than the U.S.. Corporations continue to shift their supply chains to other countries at an accelerating rate despite assurances from the government that they will not retaliate against foreign companies.

3.) We were surprised that Japan's second-quarter GNP rose by 1.8%. We believe that the threat of increased taxes in October has pulled forward consumer spending (approx. 50% of GNP) and may also help the third quarter results too. The 10-day holiday to celebrate the enthronement of Emperor Naruhito also boosted consumption in the quarter.  We clearly expect a sharp shortfall in spending in the fourth quarter and early next year.

We do not believe that the BOJ has must left in their arsenal to stimulate growth but at least Japan is benefitting from a stable currency. We doubt whether a trade deal between the U.S. and Japan by the end of the summer will do much improve business sentiment/spending/hiring without the U.S. and China reaching a ceasefire at a minimum.

4.) We remain very pessimistic about the prospects of the Eurozone especially with the risks of a hard Brexit rising daily. Germany, the engine of Europe, reported a 1.5% decline in industrial output in June driven by much weaker production of intermediate and capital goods than expected. It appears that Germany may report negative growth in the second quarter. What does that say about the prospects for the rest of Europe? Maybe that explains why German rates fell further into negative territory last week. Does anyone really believe that lower rates and further monetary easing by the ECB will do much for growth in the Eurozone? Nada!

By the way, growth in England has turned negative already too. And what happens if there is a hard Brexit in the fall? Lower rates by the BOE won’t do much to save England.

5.) India, the third largest country in Asia, continues to ease monetary policy aggressively to offset a weakening domestic economy but so far it has not helped one bit. Growth in India has slowed to less than 6% which is very disappointing to say the least. Inflation, here too, is running well below the government’s targets and fears of deflation are on the rise. India’s main problem is a lack of private investment as domestic demand and global growth slows.

The common thread occurring around the world is slowing growth despite significant monetary ease. There is a race to the bottom occurring globally as each nation/region is virtually doing the same thing (lowering rates plus weakening the currency) but to no avail. Have lower rates and a weakening currency helped the Eurozone and Japan? Will China benefit if they let the yuan fall in value offsetting tariffs? Think about all the debt globally that now has negative rates and/or is dollar denominated. And what about our Fed! We doubt that lower rates and even negative real rates will do much to stimulate growth at this point here.

We are convinced that there will not be any acceleration in global growth until trade deals are finalized so that business confidence to spend is rekindled. Here us Trump and Xi!

The bottom line is that we have moved defensively in the last few weeks after Trump tweeted about the additional Chinese tariffs effective September 1st. Global growth will NOT accelerate until there is an end/cessation to the trade conflict so that business can plan/spend/hire once again. And the U.S. will NOT be totally immune either although the real impact will be far less than virtually everywhere else as our Fed has lots of ammo to spend offsetting economic weakness, our consumer remains in good shape and our government is spending way more than they should too as we enter a Presidential election year.

Lower rates globally will force investors further out on the risk curve.

Paix et Prospérité has navigated pretty darn well during these turbulent times. We sold economically sensitive companies including global industrials/capital goods producers; the financials for obvious reasons; and commodity companies. We used the proceeds to buy some utilities including telecommunications; consumer non-durables; retailers, airlines, and healthcare companies. We have maintained/increased our exposure to high growth technology companies that sell at reasonable multiples and have no exposure to China, cable with content like Comcast and Disney, and finally to several special situations with high dividend yields selling at ridiculously low valuations to earnings and cash flow. Our cash positions have increased meaningfully too.

As we said earlier, we are preparing an options strategy that would quickly shift our portfolio if a trade deal is reached.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; do independent research and…

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman

Paix et Prospérité LLC

[therealvagabird]

Emissary

A snapshot of interstellar politics, by C. Christiansen.

           “You realize that appearances are a vital part of diplomacy.” Paul idled to the technician as he looked at himself in the mirror. The device hugging the temples of his head was not that obtrusive, but just bulky enough to throw off the sleek look he’d tried to put together.

           “You’ll thank me later.” Mr. Leblanc inspected his own in the mirror, fortunate enough that for once his jarring blonde hair blended rather well with the pearl white plastic of the device. “Hopefully these will even be strong enough. I recommend you focus on purely what the emissary is saying, nothing more.”

           “Doubly noted. The others?” he double checked. He hadn’t had many dealings with the Kinsurao in this sector, who seemed less than interested in political affairs lest provoked, but the dealings over this colonization attempt seemed of more keen interest than usual to them.

           “Unless we smear you with mud, there will be little we can do about the Kinsuraos’ senses. Just try to stay calm.” The pale man straightened his lapels yet again. For being so knowledgeable on the minutiae of these dealings, the man had a severe lack of confidence outside of his field. Hence Paul’s presence.

           The door to the dressing room slid open.

           “Mr. Guandu? Mr. Leblanc?” the young lady checked her wrist-pad while the token security guard by the door looked on.

           “Ready, is the shuttle still our course of action, or are they coming here?” Paul Guandu—he didn’t use his last name much in this trade—asked.

           “The Shoñill emissary was adamant, he refuses to hold dialogue within ‘human constructs’.” Her face was apologetic, as if she was somehow responsible for the psychotic whims of an alien zealot.

           “Very well, not the first time I’ve been situations like these—but I want the guards outfitted with jammers and backup guns. My job profile says ‘brave’ not ‘suicidal’.” The girl gave a smile and nod, taking her leave while the guard gestured for them to follow. “Come on, Leblanc, business awaits; your lapels aren’t getting any straighter.”

           The shuttle ride over was brief, yet the views made the whole thing seem grand and ominous to a—by Guandu’s tastes—rather annoying degree. The massive form of the Shoñill dreadnought on the curved horizon of the planet far “below”, coupled with the multitudes of cruisers of all three factions—human, Kinsurao, and Shoñill—floating still like watching sharks made the trip across the black expanse more intimidating than Paul would have liked.

           “They say Shoñill foundries grow their components in chemical vats, like tissue or crystal.” Leblanc commented, looking forward to the cruiser which appeared like some massive sea creature had eaten a gothic cathedral. “We’ve never found one of their ship forges, but doesn’t the architecture almost make it look like a living creature?”

           “And yet we’re going inside it, which I would deem the opposite of a survival strategy.” Paul mused back, “So maybe the analogy breaks down a little bit, yeah?”

           The scientist just shook his blonde, blonde head. “You’re very blunt for a diplomat, you know that?”

           “They’re religious nuts, they breathe poetry and drink self-praise. I get results through deals, not kissing up.”

—

           The doors of the shuttle opened to a hallway which seemed, to continue the discomforting trend, like the esophagus of a very long and wide fish. Two colossal guards stood, alien, four legs fidgeting with impatience in mirror to the humans’ own protectors, their clawed arms clutched two long poles. Long, avian faces were masked with featureless gold helms, much like the rest of their bodies—decorative plates fringed with flowing robes of burgundy silk.

           “Follow.” One ordered in a fluting tone that nonetheless held all the gravity one would expect from a soldier, pointing down the hall with his staff. “Do not stray from us, or your protection will be void.” The speaker turned and began his plod down the hall. The other waited until the convoy passed to cap off the back, sandwiching the two ambassadors and their four-man guard team.

           The walk wasn’t two long, as after a desanitization room most of the transit was done with the help of powered floors, though no windows were ever passed. Just endless sea-blue walls. They didn’t want them seeing the inner workings of the ship.

           After a few more minutes they came to the end of their journey: a large hall lined with similar golden guardians, flanking the great doorway of what Paul assumed to be the meeting room. The silvery-blue gate was inscribed with many concentric circles of xenos runes, and squiggling lines in the image of a tree. Holy symbols of the Shoñill faith.

           “You will join the others now.” The alien warrior spoke. “The old carnivores already wait.” Clanging their staves down, the duo allowed the convoy to pass as the portcullis spun outward into the wall in a mesmerizing display, the different ring-shaped panels separating and rolling aside, displaying the opulent meeting room.

           The two humans tried not to become too enamored with the décor as they took their seats. The ceiling vaulted into a high cone, supported by many metallic ribs—draped with the burgundy banners of the fleet. Everything was inscribed with some manner of religious motif.

           Even more eye-drawing were those seated at the table. The Shoñill ambassador sat unguarded, with just one other of his species beside him, cloaked head to hoof in black, and laden with trinkets. The emissary himself wore a traditional veil over his vermilinguan face, though the green skin of his head flanges, and the white feathers of his crest were visible. As was the one eye of his that could be seen, as the wide-set globes of his species meant that he had to tilt his head like a bird to look at the duo. Lounging in a taurian fashion, the two hosts carried an air of superiority accented by dripping contempt.

           It was the Kinsurao ambassador, however, who ended up speaking first, he himself adorned in blue armor, with golden pauldrons encasing his enormous shoulders. Paul recognized as the creature made an exclamation of relief.

           “You finally arrive.” He spoke in his species’ most common tongue, “I was beginning to think you would prefer bombardment.” His long limbed guards pricked up at the word for some reason or another. Leblanc tried to smile for the assembly.

           The gangly creature just fixed the two humans with a discomforting stare, the grey skin on his tendril-flanged snout wrinkling as he either snarled trying to mimic the human gesture.

           “Enough talk between the either of you.” The Shoñill clacked from behind his veil. “Your coarse language defiles this hall. You are on my ship, and you shall speak the clean tongue.”

           “Master Ambassador.” Paul gave a bow of the head, adopting the lilting alien tongue, uncomfortable as it was, “I cannot speak for the others, but we come in the name of the Republic to negotiate a ceasefire, and the terms of Pracheen’s colonization.”

           Even with his tauric half laid across a cushion, the Shoñill’s serpentine torso towered above even the Kinsurao’s seated form. “Colonization?”

           He nodded, “This planet was the center of a colonization effort, though your forces arrived and attacked seemingly without provocation. We are further to the fringe than the Xenos Front, and Pracheen was selected because it seemed a safe bet specifically to avoid conflict.”

           “What you dub ‘Pracheen’ was once an ancient shrine world of the Empire, lost in the final collapse against the Old Foe.” His black eye darted to the saurian warriors. “Countless artifacts of the old ages lie beneath its soil. Much knowledge stands to be recovered, if not destroyed by your prying hands.”

           “If these were so important to your race, why did you not look to recover them until it came to bloodshed?” Paul asked.

           “We did not know of their presence until our scouts reported. We would not think to excavate the sacred soil of this world like hungry barbarians. But now that you have unearthed our technology—we demand its surrender.”

           “But it’s not just your technology.” Leblanc now spoke up, laying down a data-pad. “In fact the first artifacts to be recovered were of Kinsurao make.” He broadcasted a hologram, showing several fragmented gadgets and trinkets of unknown use, all quite angular and geometric, before pulling up a second hologram of far more fluid baubles. The aesthetic differences between the carnivorous Kinsurao and their herbivorous rivals were obvious and apparent. “Shoñill are clearly not the only ones who have some ‘ancient claim’ on this planet.”

           “We care not for the abandoned articles.” The Kinsurao spoke up, “Little use save for scrap. We only desire the more exotic materials—and that which you unearthed on the plains of Mot Cigin.”

           Leblanc fiddled with his notes while Paul addressed the alien. “And what exactly? There wasn’t much unearthed on that battlefield save for bones, if I remember correctly.”

           “An artifact of my liege’s ancestors!” he placed a long, clawed hand on the table, “There!” he pointed to the hologram Leblanc had just rendered. “The Glaive of Kag’nai!”

           The artifact looked like a simple gauntlet, albeit suited for the long paws of a Kinsurao, fringed with two blades. All gathered at the table leaned in to look at the unassuming item.

           “A piece of armor? Or some sophisticated weapon?” Paul inquired.

           “No doubt a tool of war. Only a Kinsurao would put blades on a gauntlet.” The emissary cringed in disgust.

           The carnivore stretched his massive wingspan, “The blades are ornamental! Its true blade is one of light and fire, even grander than these fine specimens.” He patted the bladeless hilt on his belt. “It was wielded by the hero Xadem the Father. It strew the Core Fringes with the twitching limbs of the hated V’sok! It struck down Xadem’s traitor brother under the three suns of his own homeworld, and it alone laid low scores of warriors on this very planet before the hero was stung by a coward’s round!” his gaze darted between the two other ambassadors, his forehead twitching.

           There was a very brief pause. “A blade did this?” Paul was familiar with plasma technology, but for a melee weapon to reave so much destruction seemed like an embellishment. Though if this weapon was so desirable…

           “It was not just any blade! Its make was unparalleled. When I say it slew scores, I meant at once. It was said it could level anything put against it.”

           Leblanc just looked at the unassuming gauntlet. “That’s impressive.”

           “Would your liege be willing to negotiate a joint venture? I believe our own scientists could glean much about plasma technology from such an artifact.” Paul leaned towards the Kinsurao.

           “Enough!” the Shoñill waved his hand with a violence, “The bones of our kin lie on this soil! We have paid for this planet in ancient flesh, more valuable than your brags and weapons! For any to own it but us would be an insult to the gods!”

           “Your ground forces contained no scientific envoys. Your elite legionaries didn’t even try to reacquire any artifacts during their raid of our northern research station.” Paul furrowed his brow, “They killed all present, and when cornered by our mechanized division they committed suicide. The recklessness and cruelty of your troops far exceeds what I would expect from a reclamation force.” The Kinsurao seemed to chuckle, “It would seem you have revenge on your mind more than negotiation.”

           “If you had left the solar system when our fleets arrived there would have been no issue, but you chose to continue your infestation.” The alien sounded indignant.

           “We have several platoons of your infantry captured, and you’ve made no attempt to bargain for them despite your having visibly captured members of our civilian population. These gentlemen…” he gestured to the Kinsurao envoy, “Were more willing to bargain for your captured cavalry simply for the meat. I have reason to believe, though you have not stated it, that this is not a reclamation, but a Crusade—Master Emissary.” Paul put the squeeze on him.

           And just as he did he felt a great pressure at his temples to match. There had been a slight buzzing in his head for the whole time he’d been in this room, but now it was like a throbbing pressure. And something else—whispers.

           The blue lights on Leblanc’s headpiece lit up. The Kinsurao stood up rubbing at his own forehead with fury in his eyes. He took his hand away as his third eye opened, fixing the emissary with slitted gaze. “Duplicit fool!” his hand went to his belt as he and his two guard all drew their plasma sabers, sparking to life with an indigo light. Human guards raised their mags as Paul and Leblanc raised their hands. The pressure stopped.

           “We came prepared, your holiness.” Paul still rubbed at his eyes. “I find your lack of tact really disheartening. I almost hoped something could be gained from these talks.”

           “I will not kill you here.” The Kinsurao sheathed his blade. “This will be a short war.” He almost spat at the seated enemies, “Humans.” He turned to the two. “I extend on behalf of my liege an invitation back to our cruiser. If these curs have any honor the ceasefire will hold until we reach our fleets, but I feel we still have more to discuss.”

           Paul stood. The Shoñill weren’t looking anymore, but rather talking to each other in hushed and angered tones. The human ambassador switched to the carnivore’s language, sharp and grandiose. “Just as well, I think my companion was pining for a chance to hear more about this Glaive.”

           “Your stature hides your species admirable values. Perhaps you have some honor yet. Come, our guards shall march with your own. Tell your shuttle you shan’t be returning until the true warriors have had their ‘talks’.”

           “How polite of you, sir.” The doors swung open, and the Kinsurao guards growled at the sentries as they made their way back down the expansive hallway.

[footballghana]

Didier Drogba: How Ivory Coast striker helped to halt civil war in his home nation

Al-Merrikh Stadium, in Sudan's second-largest city of Omdurman, is not one of the world's great gladiatorial arenas. Yet this small ground - known as the Red Castle - became the setting for one of football's most extraordinary tales.

The date was 8 October 2005. The mathematics of qualification for World Cup 2006 were simple. A win for Cameroon in Egypt would see them reach their sixth tournament. Anything less would allow Ivory Coast, playing in Sudan and just a point behind, to leapfrog them and qualify instead - for the first time.

The tag "golden generation" can be a substantial yoke to bear, but the Ivorian squad in 2005 was just that. They were led by the artfully bruising Didier Drogba, with Kolo Toure, Emmanuel Eboue, and Didier Zokora all also shining in the Premier League, a world away in London.

Yaya Toure, then with Greek side Olympiakos and still considered raw, was waiting in the wings. This was a squad that could match anything on the African continent. Despite having lost twice to Cameroon in qualifying, they remained agonisingly close as they took to the pitch in Sudan that evening.

Yet, while Ivory Coast's footballing stars stood on the verge of history, back home the country teetered on the edge of something dark. A civil war that began in 2002 had divided the country, with President Laurent Gbagbo's government controlling the south and a rebel faction known as The New Forces of Ivory Coast, led by Guillaume Soro, controlling the north.

Fighting broke out on 19 September 2002 with rebels attacking various cities across the country. Sebastien Gnahore, an ex-footballer who fled Ivory Coast, recalls those times.

"It was awful. When I called my sister I could hear the shooting outside the house," he says. "They all hid under the bed for four days, and only came out to find food.

"All I cared about was whether my family was going to be OK. That's the only worry I had each morning."

The initial violence was fierce but short-lived, as both sides became quickly entrenched along a north-south divide. Much of the fighting had ended in 2004, but tensions were rising once again in 2005. The future of the West African country looked bleak.

Modern footballers can seem a world away from the everyday man and woman. The money involved can catapult them into a different realm, and the results can be unpalatable. But the Ivorian players that evening, despite their multi-million-pound lives in Europe, knew much more was at stake. And nobody encapsulated this quite like the man who led their line, and who was about to take centre stage.

Didier Drogba had arrived at Chelsea in 2004 for a reported fee of £24m. His nine-year stay in the Premier League was synonymous with a number of things - including a brutally effective, bulldozing style of centre-forward play and accusations ranging from unsportsmanlike behaviour to outright cheating. Love him or hate him, his achievements in west London were unquestionable.

Four Premier League titles, four FA Cups, three League Cups and a Champions League winner's medal. Arsene Wenger, whose Arsenal side frequently found themselves on the wrong end of Drogba's brutal style, said of him: "He is a winner and he will be like that until the end of his life."

Drogba was indeed a serial winner, but the pressure on that October night in Sudan was entirely different.

Cameroon's match against Egypt in Cairo and Ivory Coast's fixture with Sudan kicked off simultaneously. Ivory Coast, knowing nothing less than a victory would do, made short work of a Sudanese side second-bottom in the group. In the 73rd minute, Aruna Dindane tucked away his second goal, and the team's third. An 89th-minute Sudanese strike was no more than a consolation. Events were unfolding relatively straightforwardly - but nearly 1,500 miles north in Cairo, the picture was very different.

Cameroon took the lead in the 20th minute, but the game was tight. A 79th-minute equaliser, bundled in by Mohammed Shawky, brought Egypt level and swung the tide back into the Ivorians' favour. A draw - so long as they beat Sudan - would see them qualify.

With just seconds remaining in Cairo, and with the score locked at 1-1, Ivory Coast looked set for their maiden trip to the World Cup. Their match in Sudan had finished. Drogba was standing, surrounded by his team-mates. They were all listening to the radio and waiting. Then the crushing news filtered through. Cameroon had been awarded a soft penalty in the fourth minute of injury time.

For every tale of heartbreak, there must be one of joy. Pierre Wome's spot-kick crashed against the left-hand post and flew wide. The Cameroon players gathered, dazed and despondent in the penalty area, some pulling their shirts over their eyes. On the other side of the continent, Ivory Coast erupted. For the first time in their history, they would compete at the highest level of international football.

"The whole country - every person, every house - was happy. That day we all forgot the country was still divided," says Hassane Omar, a 20-year-old student in Abidjan at the time.

For all the breathless footballing drama that took place that night, the most seismic event did not occur on the football pitch, but in the cramped away dressing room at the Al-Merrikh Stadium. A post-game prayer led by Drogba had become something of a ritual, but this would be different.

With the celebrations unfolding, a TV camera was ushered into the changing room. The players huddled before it, their arms draped across each other's shoulders. Standing in the centre, microphone in hand, was the imposing figure of the Chelsea striker.

"Men and women of Ivory Coast," he began. "From the north, south, centre, and west, we proved today that all Ivorians can coexist and play together with a shared aim - to qualify for the World Cup."

"We promised you that the celebrations would unite the people - today we beg you on our knees." On cue, the players sank to their knees.

"The one country in Africa with so many riches must not descend into war. Please lay down your weapons and hold elections," Drogba urged. The clip, available on YouTube, is barely a minute long and ends with the players on their feet once more.

"We want to have fun, so stop firing your guns," they sang joyously. Back home, the party had already started. There were reports of a conga line outside the Egyptian embassy as Ivorians showed their appreciation for the draw in Cameroon. Even the rebel capital of Bouake bounced to the beat of victory that night.

For all the revelry, and for all the 'Drogbas' - bottles of beers renamed in the striker's honour - Ivory Coast still woke up the following morning in the same situation, as a deeply divided country.

Yet something was stirring and the following weeks and months were to see a dramatic change. The video clip played relentlessly on television as if the sheer force of media exposure might be enough to enact change. And change did follow. Both sides moved closer to the negotiating table and a ceasefire was finally signed.

While any Hollywood scriptwriter would have been proud of this ending, the story was not quite finished. At the 2006 World Cup, Ivory Coast had been knocked out at the group stage, losing to Argentina and the Netherlands before beating Serbia & Montenegro. It was a respectable first performance.

The following year, an extraordinary announcement was made by Drogba, while touring the rebel-held area of his homeland after claiming the African Footballer of the Year award.

Ivory Coast's home match and Madagascar, due to be played on 3 June 2007, would not be played in Abidjan as scheduled, he said, but instead in Bouake, the symbolic centre of the rebellion. This would have been unimaginable just two years before. Whether presidential permission was given for Drogba's announcement is still not entirely clear.

"Bearing in mind Drogba is from the south - from Gbagbo's area - he was just like a god at the time," says Austin Merril, a reporter who was in Ivory Coast working for Vanity Fair magazine. The atmosphere that day in the northern city crackled with anticipation.

"It was completely bonkers," adds Merrill, who drove behind the team bus on the way to the stadium with a heavy military presence. People rode on top of cars, weapons slipped from the grasp of excited soldiers. Inside the stadium itself, government and rebel troops hurled football chants back and forth. It was a marked change from the violence of the recent past.

"It felt like more than just football," recalls Omar, who was watching on TV in Abidjan. "Everybody had stopped work at 12 o'clock and was drinking beer or champagne. We were all so happy."

On the pitch, any notion that the script would not be a fairytale was dispelled when Salomon Kalou tapped in on 18 minutes. The goals kept coming. With just five minutes to go, and with Ivory Coast leading 4-0, the stage was set for the spectacular finale everybody had hoped for. A lofted ball from midfield dropped behind the defence, into the path of the onrushing Drogba. Delicate control and a delightful second touch took him round the goalkeeper, and he slid the ball into an empty net. The explosion of noise defied the stadium's modest capacity.

The country's messiah wheeled along the running track in celebration, players and supporters streaming in his wake. Above him in the stands, old adversaries celebrated together.

The final whistle brought fans rushing on to the pitch, with security personnel forming protective screens around the players, most of all Drogba. The symbolic gesture of the game in Bouake seemed to have united a country once again.

"It was euphoria across the whole country, everybody came together," says Gnahore. "We had so much hope in Drogba and his team. The Toures from the north, Drogba from the south. It was a true Ivorian mosaic."

However, what followed was sadly very different. With divisions running deep, and memories short, the euphoria surrounding those two matches began to fade. Just five years later, violence again gripped the country after disputed elections, resulting in the deaths of 3,000 people and culminating in the arrest of President Gbagbo and his eventual trial at the Hague for crimes against humanity.

In January 2019, he was acquitted on all charges. One year on, he remains in custody in Belgium, pending the outcome of an appeal, with Ivory Coast still in a delicate political state.

Ivory Coast's 'golden generation' never truly fulfilled their potential, losing on penalties in the final of the African Cup of Nations in both 2006 and 2012. Their star power dwindled in response. Perhaps it was simply impossible to follow on from the seismic events of 2005 and 2007.

Drogba retired from football in 2018 after a glittering career that saw success in six countries, with a place in the pantheon of African greats - if not world greats - already assured. But he and his team-mates were responsible for something far bigger than just footballing glory.

"They showed that we could still live together, that we could be the Ivory Coast that we had been before. It wasn't about football, but rather the unification of a country," says Omar.

Drogba and his team-mates didn't single-handedly stop the civil war. But over the course of two football matches, they did at least give their beleaguered country a reason to hope.

Source: BBC

  source: https://footballghana.com/

[itsnelkabelka]

Speech: Peace Agreement in South Sudan is the first step on a long journey

Thank you very much indeed to General Lacroix and Special Envoy Nicholas Haysom to whom we say farewell and yet look forward to seeing you very soon of course; EGAD Special Envoy Ismael Waes who I know has been working on this dossier for so long and so tirelessly; and also by thanking Ms. Grace John for the valuable human perspective that you have offered this Council.

Mr President the peace agreement signed last week gives hope to all of us, none more so than to the 12 million people of South Sudan. And we welcome very much the commitment that the region has shown on this important issue of peace and security and we have been consistent in this Council in supporting EGAD and the work it has done.

And while the peace agreement signed is a significant achievement, it is the first step on a long journey. We must continue to strive for progress. The people of South Sudan will continue to suffer if peace is not achieved and sustained. That conflict has already killed thousands and forced a third of the population to flee their homes - 2.5 million of whom to neighbouring countries. Half the population is food insecure. Of the 7 million people who need humanitarian assistance, over half are children. And these children, following the years of conflict displacement and economic collapse, are less likely to receive an education than any other children in the world.

South Sudan’s leaders have seemed at times indifferent to the suffering of their people, and this is not Mr. President the result of a natural disaster or an unavoidable situation. It is manmade and so must be the solution. Starting with political stability - the peace agreement must create the conditions for a lasting end to the violence. Now as I said the region has played a vital role in bringing parties to the conflict together and I commend the much needed commitment and energy that they have invested, including states around this table.

And now is the time to build on that momentum. A peace agreement on its own will not deliver and sustain peace for South Sudan. We need to see continued engagement by all parties and ensure that words are turned into meaningful and sustainable actions.

Mr President, those of us who have been saying these things have picked up some irritation and frustration at those sorts of comments. It’s been said we’re not being positive enough or that we are undermining a peace process. I believe that no one will be more positive than those of us around this table if the process really means an end to the violence and a determination to put the needs of the people first. And similarly, those of us around this table have a special responsibility to bring the experience and lessons that we have from other conflicts, other peace processes and indeed from our experience of the South Sudan conflict and peace process to bear. It doesn’t serve the parties to the peace agreement or the people of South Sudan if we do not use our experience and our knowledge from other peacebuilding situations, so it is vital that we adapt and use those lessons. In countries such as Libya, we’ve seen how political agreements can unravel and enable a relapse into violence. From our experience in Colombia, we’ve seen that ongoing commitment from the parties is the key factor for successful implementation of peace agreements.

We’ve also seen the implementation needs support from the region and sustained determined engagement from this Council. We need to draw from all of these experiences when we consider the situation in South Sudan as well as understanding why previous peace processes have not worked in that country, and therefore focus all of our efforts on successful implementation.

We must ensure this agreement does not repeat past mistakes. The continued violence even following the most recent ceasefire agreement is extremely concerning. 19 violations were reported by the Secretary-General between June and September. The increase in humanitarian access incidents and violence against humanitarian workers are gravely concerning. 13 humanitarian workers have been killed in South Sudan this year alone. Further to this, we are deeply concerned that UNMISS peacekeepers have been repeatedly denied access to the key areas to allow them to perform their mandated responsibilities. This is unacceptable and it must end. The region and the international community must closely monitor violations and ensure those responsible are held to account. I very much support Ms. John in calling for the establishment of the hybrid court.

As the international community we must not stand by and allow individuals to undermine peace. The targeted sanctions being imposed in July are an important tool. Now just as important now this agreement has been signed. They can be used to maintain pressure on all the parties to keep the promises that they have made. The arms embargo signalled that the international community will not tolerate attempts to impose military solutions. I urge the region and the wider international community to continue to support these measures.

The United Kingdom remains committed to peace in South Sudan, but in order to be convinced of the party’s commitment, we need to see significant change in approach by the parties to the conflict. They must silence their guns, allow humanitarian workers to deliver lifesaving assistance, and release political prisoners. They must show a genuine commitment to effective and accountable implementation of the peace agreement and must demonstrate that they are willing to work for the benefit of all South Sudanese, including through checks on executive majority power and the transparent use of resources.

Mr President, today the peace process stands at a crossroads. To overcome the challenges ahead, we need unity amongst the international community. We urge the region to continue to drive forward constructive progress, especially on security arrangements in step with the UN and international community. Above all, we urge the leaders of South Sudan to put aside personal interests to work together for a better future for their people. Thank you Mr President.

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[dragnews]

Taliban

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan played down a spate of recent Taliban attacks on Wednesday, saying violence levels were still lower than average as some insurgents talked peace – a situation he described as “talking and fighting.”

U.S. Army General John Nicholson, commander of Resolute Support forces and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, walks with Afghan officials during an official visit in Farah province, Afghanistan May 19, 2018. Picture taken May 19, 2018. REUTERS/James Mackenzie

“You see mid-level, senior-level Taliban leaders engaging with Afghans,” said Army General John Nicholson, adding that a lot of the diplomatic activity was taking place “off the stage.”

Nicholson’s remarks came the same day that gunmen armed with assault rifles and grenade launchers attempted to penetrate the heavily fortified headquarters of the Afghan interior ministry, battling security forces for more than two hours in the latest attack on the capital Kabul.

The attack was a reminder of the challenges facing U.S.-backed Afghan forces even after 16 years of war, including in the capital Kabul. Last month, two explosions in Kabul killed at least 26 people, including nine journalists.

Nicholson said initial indications suggested Taliban and the Haqqani network were behind the attack, even though Islamic State claimed responsibility.

In his remarks to Pentagon reporters, Nicholson sought to underscore data and events he said point to forward progress in America’s longest war. Critics warn the U.S.-backed Afghan army cannot promise to defeat the Taliban or overcome Afghanistan’s vast political divisions and entrenched corruption.

More than 2,400 U.S. forces have died in the conflict.

Nicholson pointed to unreleased data showing a 30 percent decline in attacks initiated by the insurgents between February and April, compared with the average over the previous five years. Attacks increased after the Taliban announced their spring offensive on April 25 but the violence was still 10 to 12 percent lower, he said.

U.S. officials in recent years have declined to offer data on levels of attacks initiated by insurgents, saying that the United States no longer had a big enough intelligence gathering operation in Afghanistan to publish reliable estimates.

Nicholson acknowledged much of his data drew upon the Afghan government’s estimates, which the U.S. government has long considered less reliable. But when pressed during the news briefing, Nicholson said he was still confident in the trend suggested by the data.

“If this were a matter of a few percentage points, I’d have less confidence,” he said.

He also drew comparisons to Colombia, where insurgents from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and government forces were fighting before a 2016 peace agreement.

Still, many experts say there are huge differences between the Colombian and Afghan conflicts.

“The idea that we’re making the same kind of progress (as in Colombia) is grasping at straws for justification,” said Jason Dempsey, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for New American Security think-tank who deployed twice to Afghanistan.

Nicholson highlighted a grassroots “peace movement,” which he said was not aligned to any party in Afghanistan’s nearly 17-year-old conflict. He said it has held events in 20 Afghan provinces, calling for ceasefires and peace talks.

“And this has never happened before in Afghanistan, to my knowledge, over 20 provinces,” he said.

Asked about how this would affect the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, Nicholson said: “The end state of the policy is to achieve a reconciliation.”

Reporting by Phil Stewart in Washington; Additional reporting by Hamid Shalizi in Kabul; Editing by James Dalgleish

The post Taliban appeared first on World The News.

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[newestbalance]

Taliban

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan played down a spate of recent Taliban attacks on Wednesday, saying violence levels were still lower than average as some insurgents talked peace – a situation he described as “talking and fighting.”

U.S. Army General John Nicholson, commander of Resolute Support forces and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, walks with Afghan officials during an official visit in Farah province, Afghanistan May 19, 2018. Picture taken May 19, 2018. REUTERS/James Mackenzie

“You see mid-level, senior-level Taliban leaders engaging with Afghans,” said Army General John Nicholson, adding that a lot of the diplomatic activity was taking place “off the stage.”

Nicholson’s remarks came the same day that gunmen armed with assault rifles and grenade launchers attempted to penetrate the heavily fortified headquarters of the Afghan interior ministry, battling security forces for more than two hours in the latest attack on the capital Kabul.

The attack was a reminder of the challenges facing U.S.-backed Afghan forces even after 16 years of war, including in the capital Kabul. Last month, two explosions in Kabul killed at least 26 people, including nine journalists.

Nicholson said initial indications suggested Taliban and the Haqqani network were behind the attack, even though Islamic State claimed responsibility.

In his remarks to Pentagon reporters, Nicholson sought to underscore data and events he said point to forward progress in America’s longest war. Critics warn the U.S.-backed Afghan army cannot promise to defeat the Taliban or overcome Afghanistan’s vast political divisions and entrenched corruption.

More than 2,400 U.S. forces have died in the conflict.

Nicholson pointed to unreleased data showing a 30 percent decline in attacks initiated by the insurgents between February and April, compared with the average over the previous five years. Attacks increased after the Taliban announced their spring offensive on April 25 but the violence was still 10 to 12 percent lower, he said.

U.S. officials in recent years have declined to offer data on levels of attacks initiated by insurgents, saying that the United States no longer had a big enough intelligence gathering operation in Afghanistan to publish reliable estimates.

Nicholson acknowledged much of his data drew upon the Afghan government’s estimates, which the U.S. government has long considered less reliable. But when pressed during the news briefing, Nicholson said he was still confident in the trend suggested by the data.

“If this were a matter of a few percentage points, I’d have less confidence,” he said.

He also drew comparisons to Colombia, where insurgents from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and government forces were fighting before a 2016 peace agreement.

Still, many experts say there are huge differences between the Colombian and Afghan conflicts.

“The idea that we’re making the same kind of progress (as in Colombia) is grasping at straws for justification,” said Jason Dempsey, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for New American Security think-tank who deployed twice to Afghanistan.

Nicholson highlighted a grassroots “peace movement,” which he said was not aligned to any party in Afghanistan’s nearly 17-year-old conflict. He said it has held events in 20 Afghan provinces, calling for ceasefires and peace talks.

“And this has never happened before in Afghanistan, to my knowledge, over 20 provinces,” he said.

Asked about how this would affect the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, Nicholson said: “The end state of the policy is to achieve a reconciliation.”

Reporting by Phil Stewart in Washington; Additional reporting by Hamid Shalizi in Kabul; Editing by James Dalgleish

The post Taliban appeared first on World The News.

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[dani-qrt]

Taliban

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan played down a spate of recent Taliban attacks on Wednesday, saying violence levels were still lower than average as some insurgents talked peace – a situation he described as “talking and fighting.”

U.S. Army General John Nicholson, commander of Resolute Support forces and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, walks with Afghan officials during an official visit in Farah province, Afghanistan May 19, 2018. Picture taken May 19, 2018. REUTERS/James Mackenzie

“You see mid-level, senior-level Taliban leaders engaging with Afghans,” said Army General John Nicholson, adding that a lot of the diplomatic activity was taking place “off the stage.”

Nicholson’s remarks came the same day that gunmen armed with assault rifles and grenade launchers attempted to penetrate the heavily fortified headquarters of the Afghan interior ministry, battling security forces for more than two hours in the latest attack on the capital Kabul.

The attack was a reminder of the challenges facing U.S.-backed Afghan forces even after 16 years of war, including in the capital Kabul. Last month, two explosions in Kabul killed at least 26 people, including nine journalists.

Nicholson said initial indications suggested Taliban and the Haqqani network were behind the attack, even though Islamic State claimed responsibility.

In his remarks to Pentagon reporters, Nicholson sought to underscore data and events he said point to forward progress in America’s longest war. Critics warn the U.S.-backed Afghan army cannot promise to defeat the Taliban or overcome Afghanistan’s vast political divisions and entrenched corruption.

More than 2,400 U.S. forces have died in the conflict.

Nicholson pointed to unreleased data showing a 30 percent decline in attacks initiated by the insurgents between February and April, compared with the average over the previous five years. Attacks increased after the Taliban announced their spring offensive on April 25 but the violence was still 10 to 12 percent lower, he said.

U.S. officials in recent years have declined to offer data on levels of attacks initiated by insurgents, saying that the United States no longer had a big enough intelligence gathering operation in Afghanistan to publish reliable estimates.

Nicholson acknowledged much of his data drew upon the Afghan government’s estimates, which the U.S. government has long considered less reliable. But when pressed during the news briefing, Nicholson said he was still confident in the trend suggested by the data.

“If this were a matter of a few percentage points, I’d have less confidence,” he said.

He also drew comparisons to Colombia, where insurgents from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and government forces were fighting before a 2016 peace agreement.

Still, many experts say there are huge differences between the Colombian and Afghan conflicts.

“The idea that we’re making the same kind of progress (as in Colombia) is grasping at straws for justification,” said Jason Dempsey, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for New American Security think-tank who deployed twice to Afghanistan.

Nicholson highlighted a grassroots “peace movement,” which he said was not aligned to any party in Afghanistan’s nearly 17-year-old conflict. He said it has held events in 20 Afghan provinces, calling for ceasefires and peace talks.

“And this has never happened before in Afghanistan, to my knowledge, over 20 provinces,” he said.

Asked about how this would affect the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, Nicholson said: “The end state of the policy is to achieve a reconciliation.”

Reporting by Phil Stewart in Washington; Additional reporting by Hamid Shalizi in Kabul; Editing by James Dalgleish

The post Taliban appeared first on World The News.

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[party-hard-or-die]

Taliban

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan played down a spate of recent Taliban attacks on Wednesday, saying violence levels were still lower than average as some insurgents talked peace – a situation he described as “talking and fighting.”

U.S. Army General John Nicholson, commander of Resolute Support forces and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, walks with Afghan officials during an official visit in Farah province, Afghanistan May 19, 2018. Picture taken May 19, 2018. REUTERS/James Mackenzie

“You see mid-level, senior-level Taliban leaders engaging with Afghans,” said Army General John Nicholson, adding that a lot of the diplomatic activity was taking place “off the stage.”

Nicholson’s remarks came the same day that gunmen armed with assault rifles and grenade launchers attempted to penetrate the heavily fortified headquarters of the Afghan interior ministry, battling security forces for more than two hours in the latest attack on the capital Kabul.

The attack was a reminder of the challenges facing U.S.-backed Afghan forces even after 16 years of war, including in the capital Kabul. Last month, two explosions in Kabul killed at least 26 people, including nine journalists.

Nicholson said initial indications suggested Taliban and the Haqqani network were behind the attack, even though Islamic State claimed responsibility.

In his remarks to Pentagon reporters, Nicholson sought to underscore data and events he said point to forward progress in America’s longest war. Critics warn the U.S.-backed Afghan army cannot promise to defeat the Taliban or overcome Afghanistan’s vast political divisions and entrenched corruption.

More than 2,400 U.S. forces have died in the conflict.

Nicholson pointed to unreleased data showing a 30 percent decline in attacks initiated by the insurgents between February and April, compared with the average over the previous five years. Attacks increased after the Taliban announced their spring offensive on April 25 but the violence was still 10 to 12 percent lower, he said.

U.S. officials in recent years have declined to offer data on levels of attacks initiated by insurgents, saying that the United States no longer had a big enough intelligence gathering operation in Afghanistan to publish reliable estimates.

Nicholson acknowledged much of his data drew upon the Afghan government’s estimates, which the U.S. government has long considered less reliable. But when pressed during the news briefing, Nicholson said he was still confident in the trend suggested by the data.

“If this were a matter of a few percentage points, I’d have less confidence,” he said.

He also drew comparisons to Colombia, where insurgents from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and government forces were fighting before a 2016 peace agreement.

Still, many experts say there are huge differences between the Colombian and Afghan conflicts.

“The idea that we’re making the same kind of progress (as in Colombia) is grasping at straws for justification,” said Jason Dempsey, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for New American Security think-tank who deployed twice to Afghanistan.

Nicholson highlighted a grassroots “peace movement,” which he said was not aligned to any party in Afghanistan’s nearly 17-year-old conflict. He said it has held events in 20 Afghan provinces, calling for ceasefires and peace talks.

“And this has never happened before in Afghanistan, to my knowledge, over 20 provinces,” he said.

Asked about how this would affect the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, Nicholson said: “The end state of the policy is to achieve a reconciliation.”

Reporting by Phil Stewart in Washington; Additional reporting by Hamid Shalizi in Kabul; Editing by James Dalgleish

The post Taliban appeared first on World The News.

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