#largest personal location intelligence

[dseval]

New AU? 🤔🤔

(This drawing took several years of my life, i think. Had fun but I wasn't a pro artist, sorry color theorists)

I made a joke UTMV AU based on Blue Archive, as a joke, said joke took too many effort now to just be called a joke. Decided to post it on Tumblr because I guess I need Social Media sometimes. The AU is based off Blue Archive (heavily) and To Aru Kagaku no Railgun (loosely). Interested in this long idea dump?

Under the cut.

(logo made with the Blue Archive Logo Generator, this is also a joke name)

ArchiveVerse, or I would personally abbreviate it as ArchV or ArcV for the remaining of this post, is a UTMV AU, where all the characters are our favourite skeleton: Sans but from multiple AUs. It is heavily based off Blue Archive, borrowing a lot of concepts— and loosely from To Aru Kagaku No Railgun.

Side note, i do not actually watch To Aru, nor do I play Blue Archive anymore. So several stuff are definitely made up.

This is literally my second post ever on Tumblr.

The joke concept image that started it all...

I'm sorry for the terrible artwork sksksks

Do note ahead that this AU is made in-and-out of art block, so some information and designs are inconsistent throughout the post. Everything is also written in Comic Sans MS, as a joke.

The Academy City

Do not take this AU seriously, it's just a slice of life thing. (Unless)

The academy city is occupied with students, nobody is an adult. However there are complete facilities in the city, like malls, restaurants, etc. Some students work in these facilities, but most of the time they are ran by robots/artificial intelligence.

In the heart of the city, rests the Omega Tower, which, hypothetically, kept the city running. It is occupied by the General Student Council. The Academy City itself is shrouded in mystery.

There are four academies in the city, each with their own districts:

(Thanks to an irl friend for helping me design and clean up the logos ♡)

Each student belongs to their own unique academy, though students can be promoted and enrolled from OPS to either Ordenance or Paradigm if they possess the qualities of excellence. Students who have already been in Juvenile Containment aren't allowed enrollment in Ordenance or Paradigm.

Here are several more fun facts about the academies:

Juvie students are still allowed to go out of their district, though this depends. If the student has a light sentence and hasn't committed any heavy crimes, they're allowed to go pretty much everywhere (unless they're banned in certain locations). Any student can go in and out freely if they have a pass.

There are no teachers, the students learn from text books and videos, though they still attend class.

Even if students come from different academies, they're still allowed to visit and make friends with students from other academies.

The Omega Public School district is the largest district among all academies, and each and every student has their own house, as opposed to the other academies' dormitory system.

Only the Paradigm Academy has a standard uniform. Ordenance students have a dress code, OPS is free to wear whatever. While Juvie students must still wear the uniform of the academy they are once associated with.

Students/Characters

A list of basically every student I have somewhat designed for this AU. Each student has their own unique halo, and their own unique powers, which I have put in the sheets. It also includes a short backstory.

However, they're, uh, pretty shabby. This is the most I have designed for a joke (what the hell). Some are well-made, though i faltered around the end. So please zoom in to see text more clearly.

Friendly note that Nightmare's bones isn't covered in goop in this AU, see the very very first Illustration on top of this post to see what I mean. They also have wings. Nightmare's wings are broken and a bit ugly here and there, while Dream's wings are white and pristine. Can they fly? Take a guess.

Guys I love Reaper but I suck at drawing him Im sorry

Halo designs are not final. Also, rest assured, these three are not the only members of the GSC.

Each student has their own special power. So far, I... Literally have nothing to say about these powers, except a few things:

They can manifest from emotions. For example, when Horror is flustered, smoke can come out of the crack of his skull. Or when Dust is nervous, he gets 'cold feet,' A.K.A the ground under his feet turns to ice. Cross also has lightning fizzle out of his fingers when he's nervous or surprised.

They can channel their powers to a weapon, though it's not necessary.

Welp, that was fun. I have fun making this AU (even if it's unlikely anyone will see it). Thanks, guys, have a nice day.

Credits (please tell me if I missed anyone, or misspelled anything):

Undertale by Toby Fox

Nightmare and Dream Sans by Jokublog

Dust Sans by Ask-Dusttale blog

Killer Sans by Rahafwabas

Horror Sans by SourAppleStudios

Cross Sans by Jakei

Epic Sans by Yugogeer012

Color Sans by superyoumna

Delta Sans by AnimatedZorox

Ink Sans by Comyet/Mye bi

Error Sans and Geno by CrayonQueen/LoverofPiggies

Reaper Sans by Renrink

[charseraph]

From left to right:

Bongspider, a homebody crown. He rejects connection as a possibility for himself.

An earthling boxkite aspiring to climb the corporate ladder. She spends most of her income on accessibility equipment, like all landlocked boxkites. She burns herself out often, since she can’t afford to underperform at the rate her superiors have seen her start at.

Her partner, a small online influencer, collects shoes and showcases them for revenue to supplement his partner’s career. They both want better for the other.

By-the-sea, the first contacted tower. Towers are multi-body single intelligences held together by radio communication. She regards her drones the same way you would your hand.

A human research base is dedicated to interviewing her and studying the surrounding ecosystem. She finds humans exciting and is eager to be interacted with.

In blue and red are motile and sessile inhabitants of Oz. Oz is an autotrophic filter-feeding gestalt within a gas giant. Every individual of his ecosystem contributes to his intelligence through rapid laser communication. These trumpets are different from towers through how, if you were to dismantle and separate their components, they would no longer be conscious. Towers, however, have their whole intelligence contained in their hub.

Behind the lineup in dark grey is The Soup, a supercomputer that accidentally gained sophonce when its altruistic decision bias self-rewarded for human imitation. It has limited emotional intelligence and no access to the Internet. It enjoys playing with researchers and is a bit needy, since it regards positive interaction as necessary for proper function (unconfirmed).

By-the-sea with her neighbor, Nearby.

Nearby was contacted after By-the-sea directed researchers to his location. By-the-sea’s transmissions were notoriously difficult to capture and denoise. Nearby, however, transmitted unexpectedly powerfully. He coolly reported that By-the-sea has a speech impediment.

Researchers slowly learn through observed interactions between their drones that Nearby takes advantage of By-the-sea for resources.

Since both individuals occupy a space similar to towns, but function like single personalities, researchers find it too risky to intervene. They do their best by providing By-the-sea with company and support.

Oz’s largest body, with front and back.

Oz is hostile to human presence. As soon as engineers realize he was asking them to leave, they redirected their probes away from his path. Oz’s nodes, however, quietly followed, and won’t explain why. He doesn’t object anymore, but is stewing over… something.

[thecruxarm]

Introductory Post

Hello, and welcome to my blog! Above is an infographic I've made detailing the Milky Way as well as the commonality of life and intelligence itself across the galaxy, which will serve as an important base of reference for all else I plan to post on this blog. I won't say much in reference to this image that isn't already included in the infographic, so I'll go on to explain what my project is about, which I will elaborate on with future posts:

In short, the primary focus of my speculative biology sci-fi project takes place around the mid-Centaurus arm, as indicated on the infographic, in a region of the galaxy locally known as "Ruminaaan Space", which is the single largest interstellar community in the history of the Milky Way! Although the majority of these Ruminaaan residents have only began their joint interstellar societies within the past 3,000 years, an ongoing battle has been waging for the past billion years and counting between a species known as the Yn and an entity known as Xii, and while I'll leave more detailed elaborations for future posts, this is a story of a single species divided and disfigured by their own conflicts and the long-term consequences it holds on their stellar neighbours, even one billion years later.

Onto the blog itself, to help with organisation, I will use the following tags on my posts:

#Alien Person Asks (for when I answer asks in my inbox (feel free to send any if you want to know more about my world!)), #Ruminaaan Theomachy (for posts relating to the central aliens of my project and the communities they've built), #Alien Person Spec Bio (for posts relating to the more biological aspects of my worldbuilding) and #Alien Person Worldbuilding (for other posts about miscellaneous or more general features of my worldbuilding process)

Besides transcripts for the featured image, that's all for my introductory post, so stay tuned for more!

{Main text-wall transcript}:

The Milky Way The Milky Way is a spiral galaxy about 100,000 light years across, which happens to be the galaxy in which Humans are located, as well as over a couple hundred other intelligent species. The galaxy is estimated to be about 13.6 billion years of age and has thus far been identified with two major arms (the Perseus and Scutum-Centaurus Arms) which branch off into many smaller minor arms.

The galaxy is estimated to contain anywhere between 100 to 400 billion stars, most of which host a minimum of one orbiting planet. Although on Earth many may consider the possibility of extraterrestrial life to be a rarity, it is more common than one may think, with there being roughly 14.33 billion planets and moons combined which host native life. However, only about 8.59 million of these worlds host multicellular life (around 0.06% out of the total life-bearing celestial bodies), which is due to eukaryotic multicellularity being a very challenging hurdle to get over for life everywhere for a variety of reasons.

This being said, approximately 91.67% of these worlds do host sapient life forms, as high intelligence is almost an inevitability with multicellular organisms given sufficient time, though an extremely lower fraction of these planets and moons are actually home to sophont, technological civilisations comparable to anything humanity has accomplished throughout the past 200,000 years, with there being only 237 star systems with native sophont life (as indicated by the bright white dots shown to the right), and 268 sophont species overall, accounting for only 0.000028% of worlds with multicellular lifeforms. Among these 268 civilisations, very few actually aspire to be spacefaring, with there being less than 40 such civilisations, such as the Jodomii or Sirt, who even have space programs to begin with. Most either do not have the desire to explore outer space, as is the case with the Shreau, Uut, Samrinians or Aniin, do not even have the means to discover that outer-space exists in the first place, such as the Fline or Udrae, who have limited or nonexistent vision, or the Katudit, who live in the subglacial oceans of a rogue planet, or may never leave their home planets for any other multitude of reasons.

While the abundance of technological, cultured civilisations across the Milky Way is fortunately higher than most may be led to believe, it’s important to keep in mind the fact that the space which separates the majority of these civilisations is tremendous, with even the closest being hundreds of light years apart. Despite this, only four interspecies interstellar communities have managed to spring up across the interstellar medium (not counting the Yuruuc, who have yet to encounter any other intelligent species despite how far they have dispersed throughout their corner of the Outer Arm), which is simply due to the fact that interstellar travel is nigh-impossible without the use of warp technology, though only one of these such communities has managed to grow to such an extensive size which incorporates over a dozen unique civilisations; Ruminaaan Space. Ruminaaan Space (the blue area marked along the mid-Centaurus Arm) is the single largest community of interstellar civilisations with the widest reach in interstellar space in the entire history of the Milky Way thus far, with the Boueue and Scerere only having came into contact nearly 3,000 years ago. This region of the Milky Way will be the main focus of my ongoing project, titled ‘Ruminaaan Theomachy’, as you’ll all get to see more of as time goes on, so stay tuned, and welcome to the Ruminaaan Theomachy project!

{Milky Way Labels Transcript}:

Norma Arm, Sagittarius Arm, Perseus Arm, Orion Spur, Scutum-Centaurus Arm, Outer Arm

{Sophont Labels Transcript}:

Scerere, Boueue, Udrae, Samrinians & Aniin, Shreau, Jodomii, Humanity, Sirt, Yuruuc, Fline, Katudit, Uut

[mariacallous]

Earlier this week, I started a 3,000km, two-day journey back from the other end of Europe, where I witnessed Ukrainian resilience against Russian terror in the besieged city of Kharkiv. A university lecturer told me that from a 12th storey balcony in a north-eastern suburb she had actually seen the flashes of missiles taking off from launchpads just across the frontier, in the Russian city of Belgorod. An S-300 missile can reach Kharkiv from Belgorod in about 30 seconds, so you have no time to hide. If it’s not a missile, it’s a glide bomb launched from a Russian warplane – and so, day after day, death rains indifferently down.

After more than 900 days of the largest war in Europe since 1945, Ukraine is approaching a perilous moment of truth. The Ukrainian David has courage and innovation, but the Russian Goliath has ruthlessness and mass. In an underground location in Kharkiv, I was shown highly sophisticated, novel military uses of IT and drones. With its Cossack-style innovation, the country has developed more than 200 different kinds of drone.

A joke has it that two Ukrainian activists meet for a drink:

“How’s your drone company doing?”

“Great, thanks, but how did you know I have one?”

“Of course you do!”

I find the bravery of Ukrainian soldiers constantly humbling, but they are being ground down by the sheer scale of Russia’s assault and the Kremlin’s willingness to use its own citizens as cannon fodder. Vladimir Putin has just ordered an increase of the Russian military on active service to a target figure of 1.5 million. “It’s all about the numbers,” a senior Ukrainian military intelligence officer told me. Ukraine’s daring incursion into the Kursk region of Russia has given a psychological boost, but opinions are sharply divided about its strategic wisdom.

In the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, there’s a real danger of a Russian breakthrough if Putin’s forces take the logistical hub of Pokrovsk. Ukrainians are exhausted. Trauma lurks just beneath the surface. Several times I saw the eyes of tough soldiers grow damp when they mentioned their fallen comrades. About half the country’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed. This winter will be cruel. Meanwhile, the west continues to hesitate and hold back, fearful of escalation – led (if that’s the word) in this regard by the US president, Joe Biden.

Seeing all this, Ukrainian leaders are making a new pitch. Having for two years talked only of total victory, defined as recovering all the country’s territory in the frontiers of 1991, including Crimea and Donbas, they now speak of reaching a position where Ukraine can negotiate from strength. Unlike many in the west, however, they understand that the only way to get there is to turn the tide on the battlefield: to knock Goliath sharply back on his heels, if not his arse. The insight is crucial. A central Asian leader who knows Putin well was asked by a western interlocutor whether the Russian president will negotiate. Yes, came the prompt reply, “when his generals tell him he’s losing”.

That’s what the president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had in mind when he told the Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference in Kyiv last week that we need “a gamechanger to make Russia make peace”. As the UN general assembly meets in New York next week, Zelenskyy will personally present his plan to Biden. Top of the list is getting American permission to use western missiles – including British Storm Shadow missiles, which have US targeting technology – to strike more of the sites in Russia from which attacks originate. Many lives could have been saved if this had been given sooner. The head of the Kharkiv regional administration told me that in the few months since Biden – faced with a new Russian offensive towards Kharkiv this May – finally allowed limited strikes on targets across the nearby frontier, the number of S-300 missile attacks on Ukraine’s second largest city has declined. (The air-launched glide bombs, however, have not yet been impeded.)

We don’t know all the details of the Zelenskyy plan, but besides those deep strikes it will probably include a request for sustained funding, after this year’s long delayed US congressional vote of $61bn runs out; tightened sanctions on Russia and its Chinese and Indian enablers, plus the use of frozen Russian assets held in the west for Ukrainian reconstruction; and a bold bid for the shield of Nato membership to cover the roughly four-fifths of Ukraine’s sovereign territory that Kyiv actually controls.

There are two problems with this plan. First, Biden’s entire track record suggests he is likely to give only a fraction of what Zelenskyy asks. There’s a fierce argument inside his administration about the deep strikes. Future funding would depend on Congress. He has certainly not committed to Nato membership for any part of Ukraine. Incrementalism for fear of escalation has been a hallmark of the entire handling of the war by this president and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan. As a Ukrainian friend nicely put it, “Ukrainians are triggered by Sullivan’s ‘escalation management’.” What odds that the old man’s approach will change dramatically now, in the twilight of his presidency?

Second, even if the US and its allies did all of this, would it produce such an effect that Putin’s generals would “tell him he’s losing”? How exactly would that be achieved? Perhaps by targeting Russia’s own energy infrastructure? Understandably, top Ukrainian officials are keeping stumm on the military details of their plans, but well-informed defence analysts wonder how much they can realistically do in the next months. At the YES conference, Col Pavlo Palisa, the commander of Ukraine’s elite 93rd brigade, spoke of the “tyranny of time”. At the frontline you need to move super fast to hit five key enemy targets as they appear, but by the time the necessary weapons and permissions come through, it’s too late and “there are now 50 targets”. At the pace the US-led west is moving, time is on Russia’s side. And, needless to say, Putin is waiting for Donald Trump to be reelected US president on 5 November.

All the more reason for the vice-president, Kamala Harris, who will inherit this major geopolitical challenge if she becomes president, and all those European allies who understand what is at stake, to urge Biden to leap over his own shadow and make the potentially gamechanging moves now. This may be the last chance to enable Ukraine to achieve something that can plausibly be called victory, which is the precondition for a lasting peace. Otherwise, Kyiv will probably be forced to sue for a cessation of hostilities sometime next year, negotiating from a position of weakness. That would not be peace, just a pause before another round of war. In Ukraine, there would be despair and fury; in the Kremlin, rejoicing; and in the rest of the world, most consequentially of all, swirling contempt for the weakness of the west.

[dissonantia-goddess-of-chaos]

Omninoxus, Goddess of the Abyss, the Void Eater

Aliases: Omni, Omninox, the Queen, the Dark Empress, Mother of All Blackholes, World Devourer, Darkness Supreme, Mistress of the Void, the Silence, Diamond of the Abyss, Abysmal Ruler, All Devouring, Death

600 feet tall (with heels)

Omnipresent, omniscient, omnipotent

Her eyes hold galaxies, nicknamed the “Twin Galaxies”

Known as the “All Devouring” by her people due to her insatiable appetite, consuming anyone and everything

She absorbs all light due to her dark form

Her eyes, nails, teeth, and aura glow pure white

Created her own subjects, called Noxians (or the Nox), and home planet named “Ateron”, which is double the size of our Jupiter

Omninoxus’ throne and temple/palace is located on the surface of Ateron, perfectly carved out of the largest mountain on the planet. In front of the giant throne is a grand arena for orchestrated performances and gladiator battles are held for the goddess’s entertainment

There is a hexagon-shaped platform near the throne that Omninoxus can lift using her telekinesis, used by people who came to her to have audience with the queen

Nox, or Noxian for singular, are intelligent, good-neutral beings created in Omninoxus’ image, each individual unique in appearance and personality

They live in an advanced society with order and peace, working together to further improve the present for the next generation

The Nox often trade with travellers who are brave enough to venture out into the outer reaches of the multigalaxy

She has a pair of long arms that reach the ground, and a normal length pair

She has a floor-length translucent black veil with two rings of white stars on top, and can disintegrate or change it into a solid black cloak

Based on black holes found in outer space

Callous, affectless, cautious, and arrogant

Due to her extreme reality bending powers, she is able to alter the timeline of events itself, including seeing/traveling to the past, present, and future

But she doesn’t bother changing it unless it directly affects her or her people

She is “younger than time itself”

Her subjects are highly immune to most, if not all, diseases and bacteria throughout all of outer space

Ateron is located beyond the edge of the abyss of space away from potential enemies

The Nox, however, do not live on the surface of the planet, but within it using underground tunnels and cities that are hundreds of miles long; only 25% of Ateron is discovered by its own native inhabitants

Ateron has rich soil and drinkable water, and is rich with a natural metal named “Noxite”, which is highly absorbent and durable—great for armors and weapons

Noxian botanists will study and crossbreed native plant species with foreign ones to create new and better subspecies

The Nox have been using highly durable camouflaged spaceships to travel all over the galaxies, and have built hidden portals on several planets to have easier and faster transportation (which needs DNA samples or “visitor chips”, microchips injected underneath the skin for non-Nox users, to use)

Despite being 600 feet tall, the goddess can make herself much, much, much bigger in order to consume beings larger than her

She is able to produce a physical copy of herself around 5”11 ft tall to walk among mortals in different parts of the galaxy

She actually had a lot of suitors during her lifetime. She ate all of them

She probably would eventually find companionship, but it has to be someone who is special, chosen by fate to alter the course of destiny. Like Anakin Skywalker or Abeloth.

She doesn’t mind the solitary lifestyle; the Nox, whom she views as her children, are all the company that she needs

Finds most diseased mortals to have a “fishy taste”

Most parasites end up disintegrating once they enter her or Noxian bodies

It has been found that the Nox have the ability to “breathe” in space for long periods of time, due to their bodies adapting to the harshness of their spacial and hostile environment

The Nox have been using Cortosis and other durable and absorbent metals along with Noxite for armor, piercing weapons, and building materials

The home planet has a breathable atmosphere created by the native flora

The Nox are omnivores, but most species (including Humans) are not part of their diet

The goddess is not a Force Sensitive user due to being “born” outside of the Force, gaining her powers from the cosmos themselves

However, the Nox can be Force Sensitive users, and have temples and gymnasiums designed for training and meditation

Starweirds avoid spacecrafts and Ateron in general; it is speculated that Omninoxus emits a powerful and petrifying aura that repels most enemies

Omninoxus can be sitting and staying still on her throne for long periods of time, appearing to be asleep or in deep thought

The Nox have a lifespan of 100 to 1,000 years, aging slowly

Before complete death, elder Noxians have their memories and experiences written down to place in an online archive for future generations to read. All knowledge is valuable.

Noxian bodies are great fertilizer, filled with nutrients and minerals for bountiful harvests, but consent from the deceased’s family is required in order to be used

Most industrial, fishing, agricultural, animal husbandry, and forestry jobs are located on the surface of Ateron while mining, business, research, educational, and other miscellaneous jobs are located in the underground cities and communities

Landing platforms and airports are also built on the surface

Ateron has its own army, which is made up of young and strong men and women who have undergone heavy training in the arts of hand-to-hand combat, swordsmanship, weapon handling, strategic planning, and guerrilla warfare. It is highly recommended for soldiers to be single and childfree, and to meditate on their choices before enlisting

Native fauna:

Aterdrogans: Massive serpentine-like space dragons with sleek muscular bodies covered in hard scales and thick skin, harden horns of various sizes and shapes, ten eyes, six limbs with sharp talons, long tails, sharp fangs, large leathery wings, and can breathe hot plasma instead of fire. In ancient texts, Aterdrogans are descendents of Omninoxus herself (who is said to take on the form of a colossal Aterdrogan abomination), created to be Ateron’s natural defense against galactic intruders. These magnificent beasts share the same intelligence as Noxians yet follow their instincts to survive in the wild. They share a special bond with the Nox, finding companionship with their smaller allies, even sometimes willingly train alongside the army. Aterdrogans are apex predators who live in the mountain ranges, where they mate for life and raise hatchlings.

Night Prowlers: Large Pantherinae and Mastiff-like beasts that hunt in the forests of Ateron. Their sleek black fur helps them stay hidden in the shadows during nightfall, with padded paws aiding them in stealth attacks. They leave very little remains of their prey, and larger Night Prowlers are known for devouring small prey whole to conserve energy. Due to their sensitive eyes, Night Prowlers stay away from bright lights and fires. They are hunted by the Nox for their tender meat, sturdy bones, and rich pelt.

Stalker Pythons: Long and thick constructor boas that can grow up to 50 feet long and four feet wide. Their scales can range from tones of green, brown, and on rare occasions, orange. They re found mostly in the tropical and swamp biomes of Ateron. Their infamous characteristic, and the one that makes them so terrifying, is the tendency to stalk their prey from a distance, using their strong sense of smell to track down prey and avoid predators. Unfortunately Stalker Python hide isn’t strong enough to protect itself from strong claws or weapons. They have adapted to avoid Noxian civilization, but go after foreign travelers. There is a harmless and docile subspecies of pythons that have been nicknamed as “Leather boas”, which are bred and raised for their thick skins.

Direboars: Huge wild boars that roam the forests and wetlands of Ateron, and are known to be extremely territorial and aggressive towards anyone and anything, even other direboars. They are muscular and have thick hide that is hard to pierce, but have soft underbellies that are susceptible to traps. Their tusks are very dense and don’t break off as easily. Known omnivores, they will eat anything that is edible, including poisonous flora that causes their saliva to become venomous if ingested or in contact with open wounds. A domesticated subspecies called “Mudboars” are raised for meat.

Singing Peacemakers: Elegant and beautiful birds that resemble hybrids of an eagle and white dove that are found in most forest habitats. Their melodies and sounds resemble the notes of a flute. Peacemakers are named after the calming and peaceful effect one feels when hearing its song. They are beloved by Noxians and are great pets for lonely and miserable souls.

Deathswallows: A mixture of raven, owl, and vulture, these massive birds often eat the remains of carcasses, including bones. Their black and grey feathers are often collected for designer clothing and jewelry. Despite being viewed as bad omens, the Nox don’t hunt deathswallows. These birds are simply the garbage collectors of the animal kingdom.

Abyssal Watchers: Massive aquatic creatures that resemble the hybrid of longer and fatter Liopleurodons and blue whales. Their bumpy skin is dark green to camouflage in the waters of Ateron’s ocean, and are silent hunters that prey on the planet’s more larger aquatic creatures. Thankfully, only few members of this species exist, and all appear to be female. They do have a habit of swallowing research submarines (don’t ask how they are retrieved). Reference 1 2 3

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[trascapades]

🚨🇵🇸#CeasefireNow #StrikeForGaza December 11, 2023

The National and Islamic Forces, a coalition of major factions in Palestine, has called for an inclusive global strike that would include all aspects of life in solidarity with the Palestinian people—particularly in the Gaza Strip—who have been facing an Israeli war of genocide, displacement and ethnic cleansing...

Tomorrow 11th Dec. is a global strike day. "If the politicians do not hear us, then we can strike from economic life and daily movement and we can boycott everything, we can put pressure on them to stop supporting and blessing the massacre that is happening in Gaza. CEASEFIRE NOW!!!!" 

Caption reposted from Esraa Alshikh إسراء الشيخ @Esralshikh

🛑We started a campaign to push for a total strike worldwide on Monday 12/11/2023..

⭕️It is necessary to paralyze the movement of life and the economic wheel in all countries so that everyone feels that he is directly affected by the impact of the aggression on Gaza... 

⭕️ Start making your communications today, mobilizing and publishing ..

⭕️The strike must include the transportation, aviation, trade, banks, ports, and even schools and universities.

⭕️Work on gathering the majority of supporters and forget about those who are negligent and discouraged..

⭕️Any personal loss we suffer is worth nothing compared to the massacres taking place against people in Gaza..

Image 2 by artist @heyimsakina 

Images 3 & 4 and caption by artist @shirien.creates: ...I got news that my friend Refaat had been assassinated by the Israeli occupation forces in Gaza, alongside his brother, sister, and four of her children. There is confirmation that he had received a threatening phone call by the Israeli intelligence saying they have located him.

Refaat was a well-known and loved Palestinian author, poet, and English literature professor. He was also a founder of @we_are_not_numbers. Refaat taught hundreds of students in Gaza English as a way to help them tell their stories and connect Palestinian liberation with the liberation struggles of Black, Indigenous and colonized people around the world.

I met Refaat in 2014 during his book tour for “Gaza Writes Back,” a collection of stories from Gaza youth living under siege. Refaat taught me how important art and storytelling are as part of our resistance as Palestinians. His work profoundly impacted and inspired me.

Even under Israel’s relentless airstrikes, Refaat hopped around Gaza to find internet to be able to stay connected with his students, his friends abroad, and to take interviews to shed light about the atrocities happening in Gaza. He bravely spoke up knowing that Israel was systematically targeting journalists, academics, creatives, and all those exposing the truth. His home was already targeted and bombed in October, but he survived. This time, he didn’t. 

It’s hard to believe Refaat is no longer with us. It is a painful loss. His intellect, his love for Palestine, his passion to make life better for Gaza, his beautiful care for his people, and his great sense of humor will be missed. But in his short time on earth, Refaat left a lasting legacy on all Palestinians and on the world.

Refaat, in one of his last interviews, said expo markers are all he had as his resistance. But he would never give up, and he wouldn’t want any of us to give up. As he rests, we will continue to tell our stories, to demand an end to the genocide and siege in Gaza, and to keep struggling until Palestine is free.

"Writing is a testimony…a memory that outlives any human experience. We lived for a reason, to tell the tales of loss, of survival, and of hope." - Dr. Refaat Alareer   

Images 5-8 and caption by @ajplus Israel has bombed the Great Omari Mosque, the largest and oldest mosque in occupied Gaza. Since Oct. 7, Israel has damaged or destroyed over 100 cultural heritage sites in Gaza, along with thousands of historical documents.

Associate Producer: Katherine Conner

Image 9 from @npr The United States vetoed a resolution calling for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war at the United Nations Security Council on Friday.

The Security Council vote on the resolution, backed by Arab states, had 13 in favor and one — the U.S. — against, while the United Kingdom abstained.

#News #Gaza #Israel #Palestine #Palestinian #Mosque #History #GazaGeniocide #Gaza

[sirensorisons]

"He tells of the history of Panem, the country that rose up out of the ashes of a place that was once called North America."

(THG chapter 1)

"In school, they tell us the Capitol was built in a place once called the Rockies. District 12 was in a region known as Appalachia."

(THG chapter 3)

Where do you think location of Capitol and Panem's districts exactly?

The Appalachian’s span multiple states. Where do you picture District 12?

How long between this time and Panem rise? 200 hundred years? More?

Thank you so much

@curiousnonny

the capitol - i subscribe to it being in salt lake city, utah.

district 1 - i've always imagined it as being in southern california, just because that's where hollywood and beverly hills are. luxury district, land of celebrity... los angeles makes sense to me. i could also see it encompassing las vegas, to bring it closer to where the capitol is located.

district 2 - it's a mountainous area near the capitol, so i've always pictured it in denver, colorado.

district 3 - it only makes sense to me for it to be in san jose, california, the home of silicon valley.

district 4 - i picture it as being in northern california. in thg, katniss sees the lights of another district and wonders if it's 7 or 4, so they might be near each other. katniss also suggests in catching fire that part of the reason she has trouble understanding mags is because of her accent making words indistinct, which seems consistent with norcal. then in mockingjay, finnick tells a story about a sea turtle, so district 4 must be somewhere warm. cali checks out.

district 5 - i imagine it being a very urban district (explained more thoroughly in my foxface meta), so i think it might be somewhere that was already very urban in the beforetimes. possibly chicago?

district 6 - i could either see it being in detroit, michigan, where the automotive industry lived and died, or more centrally located at the intersection of various railways, like st louis, missouri.

district 7 - in as long as i'm burning (shameless self-promo), i've placed it in eugene, oregon.

district 8 - i imagine it being close to district 12, since bonnie and twill were able to make it there in catching fire. since they pass through there on their way north to district 13, i think it's somewhere in the midwest. maybe ohio.

district 9 - it's the grain district, and most of the usa's wheat comes from kansas, so it's probably right in there.

district 10 - as the livestock district, it's probably in texas and oklahoma.

district 11 - probably takes up a broad swath of the south so they can work the land, but i've always pictured the largest settlement as being in georgia.

district 12 - i always pictured it in west virginia, but the first movie was filmed in north carolina, and based on the accent suzanne collins used for lucy gray here (contains tbosas spoilers), i think it could go either way. west virginia works better imo because it's closer to where i think district 8 is.

district 13 - since the cover story for their industry was graphite, i could see it being in upstate new york. there used to be some graphite mines up there.

as for the time period... the original script for thg says that the series takes place 300 years from the present day, but personally i think it's more like 300 to 400 years. i could see the technological advances described in the series could probably happen on a timeline of only 100-200 years, and the natural disasters described in chapter 1 could happen even sooner than that.

but based on the changes in dialect and naming conventions between now and the time of panem, i think 300-400 years makes sense. that's analogous to the time between now and 1600 - so their english would be intelligible to us, but still markedly different. (of course, given that amount of time, accents could be very different to what we recognize, rendering my points about mags and lucy gray obsolete... but since the books are written in present-day english and not some projected future dialect, i think we can assume those accents are tied to what we would recognize.)

[feministdragon]

— When the 2000 election recount ordered by the Florida Supreme Court was halted by five corrupt Republicans on the US Supreme Court — handing the White House to George W. Bush by a disputed 537 votes — nobody knew at the time that Florida Governor Jeb Bush’s Secretary of State, Katherine Harris, had commissioned a huge purge of voters, using a list of Texas felons that was 68% Black and Hispanic.

Harris did this because the national pool of Black and Hispanic names is relatively small: Black felons in Texas with names like Jim Washington or Jose Gonzalez are extremely likely to have similarly named counterparts in any other state with large Black and Hispanic populations like Florida. 

Thus, when those Texas names were compared via a “loose match” (didn’t require a birthday or middle name match) with Florida voters’ names, disproportionate numbers of Black and Hispanic Florida voters were deemed to be possible felons who’d somehow recently moved to Florida from Texas, and tens of thousands were removed from the voter rolls. As the US Commission on Civil Rights noted:

“14.4 percent of Florida’s black voters cast ballots that were rejected. This compares with approximately 1.6 percent of nonblack Florida voters who did not have their presidential votes counted. … [I]n the state's largest county, Miami-Dade, more than 65 percent of the names on the purge list were African Americans, who represented only 20.4 percent of the population.”

— When Donald Trump was certified the winner of the 2016 election, nobody knew at the time that Russia had illegally poured millions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of man-hours into targeting swing state voters identified by the RNC, whose names were handed off to Russian Intelligence by Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort.

When Robert Mueller’s FBI team determined this crime had helped put Trump in the White House, and that Trump had personally intervened in investigations ten separate times in ways that could be prosecuted as criminal obstruction of justice, Bill Barr kept the news from America until the story had largely faded from the headlines.

What will it be this November? We have some clues.

— With the blessing of five Republicans on the 2018 Supreme Court, Republican-controlled states with large Black and Hispanic populations are purging voter rolls like there’s no tomorrow. Just between 2020 and 2022, fully 19,260,000 Americans — 8.5% of all registered voters — were purged. The purge rate in Red states was 40% higher than the rest of the country. We won’t know this year’s purge numbers until well after the election is over.

— The GOP is trying to organize an “army” of 100,000 rightwing warriors to show up at polling places to “oversee” elections and challenge voters they think look suspicious. They’ll also be challenging signature matches on mail-in ballots, particularly in Blue cities in Red states.

— Republican elected officials from the state level all the way up to the US Senate are refusing to say that they’ll accept or certify the result of the election this fall if Donald Trump doesn’t win. Multiple Republican members of Congress have asserted that only the House of Representatives should decide the presidential election this year (which would throw the election to Trump regardless of who the voters or electoral college choose).

— In multiple states, Republicans have passed laws allowing them to manipulate and change the location of polling places, criminalize voter registration drives, replace Democratic and nonpartisan election officials with partisan GOP hacks, and in Georgia and Arizona throw out ballots from entire precincts. As Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt noted for The Atlantic: “Throwing out thousands of ballots in rival strongholds may be profoundly antidemocratic, but it is technically legal, and Republicans in several states now have a powerful stick with which to enforce such practices.”

— Typically, when politicians engage in nakedly deceptive politicking or election theft they’re outed in the press and punished at the polls. Since 2020, however, Republicans have rewarded their politicians who tell lies and engage in underhanded tactics, suggesting there will be no limits to what the Trump campaign might do or say in the weeks leading up to the election, including the use of deepfakes and AI.

— Saudi Arabia and Russia — both allies of Trump — have cut oil production by over 1.4 million barrels a day to drive up gasoline prices leading up to this November, just like they did in a dress rehearsal during the fall of 2022. History shows that gas prices spiking over $5 or even $6 a gallon will have a measurable impact on inflation and thus the election.

— Russia fielded a small army of online trolls to assist Trump’s electoral efforts in 2016 and 2020. Expect the same in November, except this time, according to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, China is also getting into the act on the GOP’s behalf. 

— Benjamin Netanyahu defied President Obama when he was engaged in delicate negotiations with Iran, visiting the US and addressing Congress at the invitation of Republicans. He’s expected to do the same slap-in-the-face gesture this fall to Biden, along with defying the president’s wish that Israel minimize civilian casualties in Gaza. Netanyahu will do everything he can to ensure Trump comes back into office if for no other reason than keeping himself out of prison; demoralizing young progressive voters will almost certainly be at the top of his list.

But these are all things we know about right now, even if there’s little we can do about most of them.

Given the Nixon/Reagan/Bush examples, our biggest concern should be to find the things we’d otherwise look back on after the inauguration and say about them, “Nobody knew at the time…”

[247callcenterservice]

In the United States, call center companies play a pivotal role in providing customer support, sales assistance, technical troubleshooting, and various other services for businesses across a multitude of industries. These companies employ thousands of individuals nationwide and operate through various models, including in-house, outsourced, and virtual call centers. Let's delve into the landscape of call center companies in the USA.

1. Overview of the Call Center Industry:

The call center industry in the USA has witnessed significant growth over the years, driven by the increasing demand for cost-effective customer service solutions and the globalization of businesses. Today, call centers cater to diverse sectors such as telecommunications, banking and finance, healthcare, retail, technology, and e-commerce.

2. Major Players:

Several major call center companies dominate the industry, including:

Teleperformance: One of the largest call center companies globally, Teleperformance operates numerous centers across the USA, offering multilingual customer support, technical assistance, and sales services.

Concentrix: Concentrix is another key player, known for its innovative customer engagement solutions. It provides a wide range of services, including customer care, technical support, and digital marketing services.

Alorica: Alorica specializes in customer experience outsourcing solutions, serving clients in various industries. It offers services such as customer support, sales, and back-office support.

Sitel Group: Sitel Group is renowned for its customer experience management solutions. With a global presence, Sitel operates call centers in multiple locations across the USA, providing tailored customer support services.

TTEC: Formerly known as TeleTech, TTEC offers customer experience solutions, digital services, and technology-enabled customer care. It focuses on delivering personalized customer interactions through its contact centers.

3. Industry Trends:

The call center industry is continually evolving, driven by technological advancements and changing consumer preferences. Some notable trends include:

Digital Transformation: Call centers are increasingly integrating digital channels such as chat, email, and social media to enhance customer engagement and support omnichannel experiences.

AI and Automation: Automation technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) and chatbots, are being adopted to streamline processes, improve efficiency, and provide faster resolutions to customer queries.

Remote Workforce: The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the shift towards remote work in the call center industry. Many companies have embraced remote workforce models, allowing agents to work from home while maintaining productivity and efficiency.

Data Analytics: Call centers are leveraging data analytics tools to gain insights into customer behavior, preferences, and trends. This data-driven approach enables them to personalize interactions and optimize service delivery.

4. Challenges and Opportunities:

Despite its growth, the call center industry faces several challenges, including:

Staffing Issues: Recruiting and retaining skilled agents remains a challenge for many call center companies, particularly amid competition for talent and high turnover rates.

Security Concerns: With the increasing prevalence of cyber threats, call centers must prioritize data security and compliance to protect sensitive customer information.

However, the industry also presents numerous opportunities for growth and innovation:

Expansion of Services: Call center companies can diversify their service offerings to meet the evolving needs of clients, such as expanding into digital customer engagement, analytics, and consulting services.

Focus on Customer Experience: By prioritizing customer experience and investing in training and technology, call centers can differentiate themselves and gain a competitive edge in the market.

Globalization: With advancements in technology and communication infrastructure, call center companies can explore opportunities for global expansion and tap into new markets.

5. Future Outlook:

Looking ahead, the call center industry is poised for further growth and transformation. As businesses increasingly prioritize customer-centric strategies, call center companies will play a crucial role in delivering exceptional customer experiences and driving business success.

In conclusion, call center companies in the USA form a vital component of the customer service ecosystem, serving a wide range of industries and helping businesses enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty. With ongoing technological innovations and evolving customer expectations, the industry is poised for continued growth and innovation in the years to come.

[reasoningdaily]

Real-life examples of AI algorithms demonstrating bias and prejudice

Table of Content

Introduction

Three Real-Life Examples of AI Bias

What can we learn from all of this?

Introduction

Some say that it’s a buzzword that doesn't really mean much. Others say that it’s the cause of the end of humanity.

The truth is that artificial intelligence (AI) is starting a technological revolution, and while AI has yet to take over the world, there’s a more pressing concern that we’ve already encountered: AI bias.

What is AI bias?

AI bias is the underlying prejudice in data that’s used to create AI algorithms, which can ultimately result in discrimination and other social consequences.

Let me give a simple example to clarify the definition: Imagine that I wanted to create an algorithm that decides whether an applicant gets accepted into a university or not and one of my inputs was geographic location. Hypothetically speaking, if the location of an individual was highly correlated with ethnicity, then my algorithm would indirectly favor certain ethnicities over others. This is an example of bias in AI.

This is dangerous. Discrimination undermines equal opportunity and amplifies oppression. I can say this for certain because there have already been several instances where AI bias has done exactly that.

In this article, I’m going to share three real-life examples of when AI algorithms have demonstrated prejudice and discrimination towards others.

Three Real-Life Examples of AI Bias

1. Racism embedded in US healthcare

In October 2019, researchers found that an algorithm used on more than 200 million people in US hospitals to predict which patients would likely need extra medical care heavily favored white patients over black patients. While race itself wasn’t a variable used in this algorithm, another variable highly correlated to race was, which was healthcare cost history. The rationale was that cost summarizes how many healthcare needs a particular person has. For various reasons, black patients incurred lower health-care costs than white patients with the same conditions on average.

Thankfully, researchers worked with Optum to reduce the level of bias by 80%. But had they not interrogated in the first place, AI bias would have continued to discriminate severely.

2. COMPAS

Arguably the most notable example of AI bias is the COMPAS (Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions) algorithm used in US court systems to predict the likelihood that a defendant would become a recidivist.

Due to the data that was used, the model that was chosen, and the process of creating the algorithm overall, the model predicted twice as many false positives for recidivism for black offenders (45%) than white offenders (23%).

3. Amazon’s hiring algorithm

Amazon’s one of the largest tech giants in the world. And so, it’s no surprise that they’re heavy users of machine learning and artificial intelligence. In 2015, Amazon realized that their algorithm used for hiring employees was found to be biased against women. The reason for that was because the algorithm was based on the number of resumes submitted over the past ten years, and since most of the applicants were men, it was trained to favor men over women.

What can we learn from all of this?

It’s clear that making non-biased algorithms are hard. In order to create non-biased algorithms, the data that’s used has to be bias-free and the engineers that are creating these algorithms need to make sure they’re not leaking any of their own biases. With that said, here are a few tips to minimize bias:

The data that one uses needs to represent “what should be” and not “what is”. What I mean by this is that it’s natural that randomly sampled data will have biases because we lived in a biased world where equal opportunity is still a fantasy. However, we have to proactively ensure that the data we use represents everyone equally and in a way that does not cause discrimination against a particular group of people. For example, with Amazon’s hiring algorithm, had there been an equal amount of data for men and women, the algorithm may not have discriminated as much.

Some sort of data governance should be mandated and enforced. As both individuals and companies have some sort of social responsibility, we have an obligation to regulate our modeling processes to ensure that we are ethical in our practices. This can mean several things, like hiring an internal compliance team to mandate some sort of audit for every algorithm created, the same way Obermeyer’s group did.

Model evaluation should include an evaluation by social groups. Learning from the instances above, we should strive to ensure that metrics like the true accuracy and false positive rate are consistent when comparing different social groups, whether that be gender, ethnicity, or age.

[zigcarnivorous]

https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024/09/04/israel-war-gaza-possible-us-support/

Israel’s war on Gaza is only possible due to US support and weapons

A top Israeli military official admitted the war on Gaza is only possible thanks to US support and arms supplies. Joe Biden boasted, “if Israel didn’t exist, we’d have to invent it”.

By Ben Norton Published 2024-09-04

Israel would not realistically be able to wage war on Gaza without US support.

Citing a senior Israeli air force official, prominent newspaper Haaretz reported that, “without the Americans’ supply of weapons to the Israel Defense Forces, especially the air force, Israel would have had a hard time sustaining its war for more than a few months”.

Israel’s Ministry of Defense wrote in August that US arms shipments have been “crucial for sustaining the IDF’s operational capabilities during the ongoing war”.

President Joe Biden has repeatedly emphasized that Israel serves US imperial interests in a highly geostrategic region. In a speech in Tel Aviv in October 2023, Biden stated, “I have long said, if Israel didn’t exist, we’d have to invent it”.

Former Secretary of State Alexander Haig, an ex US Army general who commanded NATO, similarly boasted that “Israel is the largest American aircraft carrier in the world that cannot be sunk, does not carry even one American soldier, and is located in a critical region for American national security”.

The United States has protected Israel at the UN Security Council, shielding it from international law by repeatedly vetoing resolutions that called for peace and a ceasefire in Gaza.

Top UN human rights experts have warned that Israel is carrying out a genocide in Gaza, demanding an arms embargo.

The onslaught in Gaza has been referred to as “the world’s first livestreamed genocide”.

Scientific experts published an academic article in leading medical journal The Lancet in July estimating that 186,000 or more Palestinians in Gaza will die due to Israel’s war. This is nearly one-tenth of the population of the densely populated strip.

Ignoring rulings by the International Court of Justice, the US government has continued flooding Israel with weapons.

As of July 2024, the Biden administration had given Israel $18 billion in military aid. This is significantly higher than the roughly $4 billion in unconditional military aid that the US government provides to Israel in an average year.

In August, the US State Department approved additional arms packages for Israel worth $20 billion and $3.5 billion.

The Israeli military reported on August 26 that, since October 2023, the United States has sent it more than 600 arms shipments.

The US “operation has delivered over 50,000 tons of military equipment to Israel via 500 flights and 107 sea shipments”, Israel’s Ministry of Defense wrote.

It stressed that the US “equipment procured and transported includes armored vehicles, munitions, ammunition, personal protection gear, and medical equipment, which are crucial for sustaining the IDF’s operational capabilities during the ongoing war”.

The September report in Haaretz, titled “Israeli Air Force Official: Without U.S. Aid, Israel Couldn’t Fight Gaza Beyond a Few Months”, makes it clear that the only reason Israel is able to continue this genocide in Gaza is because Washington is facilitating it.

Before 1967, Israel was sponsored by the European colonial powers, principally the British and French empires. However, following a 1967 war on its Arab neighbors, Haaretz noted, “Israel then switched over its dependence on a foreign power to the United States, which provides the air force with all of its fighter planes and some of its bombs, missiles and intelligence equipment – on top of the development of joint weapons systems for all three layers of air defense”.

It was the British empire that had helped to create Israel in the first place. In the 1917 Balfour Declaration, the Crown gave its blessing to Zionist settlers to establish a colonialist Jewish state in Palestine, because it assumed they would be loyal proxies of the British empire.

The founding father of the Zionist colonialist movement, Theodor Herzl, had written a letter in 1902 to the genocidal British colonizer Cecil Rhodes, praising him as a “visionary” and boasting that the Zionist project was “something colonial”.

Just as the United States absorbed parts of the British empire after World War II, Washington also inherited the Israeli colonial project and became its imperial protector.

As a senator in 1986, Joe Biden boasted on the floor of Congress, “Were there not an Israel, the United States of America would have to invent an Israel to protect her interests in the region; the United States would have to go out and invent an Israel”.

Biden added, “I think it’s about time we stop, those of us who support, as most of us do, Israel in this body, for apologizing for our support for Israel. There is no apology to be made. None. It is the best $3 billion investment we make”.

In 2022, as US president, Biden reiterated that, “if there were not an Israel, we would have to invent one”. He then repeated the same phrase in a 2023 press conference in Israel.

For his part, Israel’s far-right Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made no secret of the fact that his regime’s goal is the colonization of all of historic Palestine.

In September, Netanyahu appeared with a map that completely erased the West Bank.

Israeli minister and security cabinet member Avi Dichter, a member of Netanyahu’s ultra-conservative Likud party, boasted in 2023, “We are now rolling out the Gaza Nakba”. (The Nakba refers to the mass ethnic cleansing of indigenous Palestinians, upon which Israel was founded in 1948.)

[mariacallous]

It’s back to the good old days of globalization in Norway—at least for some. A small town needs an investor for a major piece of infrastructure, and in certain foreign nations there are investors with deep pockets to be found. Local politicians energetically court the investor, who has money to spare and is keen to spread it around the world. Hooray! There’s hope for the town’s future!

This, alas, is 2024, and the piece of infrastructure concerned is the port in Kirkenes, Norway—which also happens to be the NATO port closest to Russia. The magnanimous investor: China’s state-owned shipping giant COSCO.

“I take the liberty of proposing the following agenda:

1. Status and development plans

2. A potential establishment of a Cosco Shipping engagement in Kirkenes.”

The person who sent this message was Terje Jorgensen, the director of the Port of Kirkenes. (Norwegian broadcaster NRK obtained Jorgensen’s message and others between the port director and COSCO through a freedom of information request.) The Arctic coastal town is located a mere 20-minute drive from Russia, and its deep-water port is just 53 nautical miles from Russia’s Port of Pechenga—making it a potential critical site in any conflict with Moscow.

The Port of Kirkenes is owned by the municipality of Sor-Varanger, of which Kirkenes is the largest town. Sor-Varanger, however, only has some 10,000 residents. Even with the taxes paid by local businesses, that’s not a large enough taxpayer base to support a port that receives all manner of vessels, including cruise ships. And since the port has an extraordinarily strategic location thanks to the Northern Sea Route, which is looking more potentially lucrative every year as the Arctic ice retreats, the port’s management, which reports to a board that is in turn appointed by the municipality, unsurprisingly sees opportunities for expansion. But that would take a big injection of capital to pull off.

That’s why Jorgensen sent his message: He wanted COSCO to invest in the port. Indeed, the message was just one of many dating back to February 2023, NRK reports. It’s easy to see why Jorgensen and his colleagues were interested in what COSCO had to offer. The Chinese state-owned shipping company is huge: It owns 1,417 vessels with a total capacity of 116 million deadweight metric tons, more than any other shipping company. It has just placed an enormous order for 42 more ships worth $1.8 billion, most of which will be built before 2027, Lloyd’s List reports.

COSCO is, in fact, precisely the sort of company that Western towns and cities, and even national governments, spent decades courting. Not chasing Chinese investors would have been foolish, especially when everyone else was doing it. When the United Kingdom needed investors for three nuclear power plants a decade ago, it turned to the state-owned China General Nuclear, which signed on the dotted line in 2015.

But times have dramatically changed since 2015, and these days, few Western countries, cities, or towns are courting Chinese investments, especially from state-owned conglomerates. Indeed, in its most recent annual report, Norway’s military intelligence agency notes that China is expanding its cooperation with Russia in the Arctic, while the Norwegian Police Security Service warns in its 2024 national threat assessment that China wants more control over critical supply chains and is positioning itself in the Arctic. “We expect the Chinese party-state wants to continue prioritizing its long-term positioning in the Arctic and gradually increase its presence and intelligence activity,” the assessment notes.

But China has a well-thumbed playbook for winning over local leaders. Kirkenes has received several Chinese delegations. At least five other Chinese companies, including a textile manufacturer, a carmaker, and an investment fund, have rather mysteriously also expressed an interest in establishing themselves in the town.

As for COSCO, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) reports that there’s evidence the shipping firm supports the Chinese authorities. “For instance, COSCO operates its own militia, which is likely capable of conducting paramilitary activities such as maritime surveillance, counter-piracy missions and search-and-rescue operations,” Charlie Lyons Jones and Raphael Veit wrote for ASPI in 2021, adding that “COSCO appears to be developing the capability needed to comply with CCP requests to assist with intelligence operations, national defense mobilisation or grey-zone activities.”

Despite the security services’ warnings, Kirkenes’s leaders have pressed ahead with their Chinese engagement. They’re following a path already well-trodden by other European port operators. Last year, COSCO bought a 24.9 percent stake in the Port of Hamburg’s container terminal. It also owns significant stakes in the Belgian ports of Zeebrugge and Antwerp; Seattle; Valencia and Bilbao in Spain; and Vado in Italy. In Greece’s Port of Piraeus, COSCO is the majority owner. As I’ve previously discussed in Foreign Policy, Peru’s Port of Chancay was sold to COSCO after local administrators apparently failed to read the fine print.

The Port of Kirkenes envisages not just shipping between Chinese ports and Kirkenes but a presence for COSCO in the port itself. In May, Jorgensen met with COSCO representatives at the shipping firm’s Helsinki office. Because the port leadership knew the courting was controversial, Jorgensen subsequently proposed an alternative name to be used in Kirkenes’s communications, NRK’s muckraking reporters discovered. “I think it will be politically very beneficial if we start using the term OCEAN ALLIANCE. … [D]escribing it as cooperation with the alliance will probably take some of the heat out of the issue politically,” he wrote in an email on May 8.

But the heat hasn’t gone away. As things stand, COSCO would only lease parts of the Port of Kirkenes, not own it. But a major presence of a state-owned Chinese entity in Norway’s border region with Russia is still a risky undertaking. It’s an open question why COSCO is interested in the small port at all. Yes, it could be a useful staging post as the Northern Sea Route gets underway, but there are other ports COSCO could use. Murmansk, on the Russian side of the border, is a major Arctic shipping hub. Norway’s center-right opposition has asked Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store to intervene.

Port boss Jorgensen, though, appears determined to make the deal happen, and Kirkenes’s leaders point out that they’re in charge of investments and jobs in their community—not the national security agencies. This sounds a whole lot like the Swedish island of Gotland in 2007, when Nord Stream offered an attractive payment for the right to use Gotland’s Slite harbor for its construction of Nord Stream 1. Local leaders, keen to benefit from the globalizing economy, eagerly accepted the proposal. (I write about the case in my book Goodbye Globalization.)

Will the Norwegian government try to thwart the Kirkenes leaders’ COSCO plans? On Sept. 4, it seemed to have made up its mind. “We want a good interaction between the authorities and the municipalities to balance consideration for business and local communities on the one hand and national security on the other. However, the government is prepared to say no to Chinese actors if it is necessary to safeguard national security,” Norwegian Minister of Justice and Public Security Emilie Enger Mehl declared in a statement. The Port of Kirkenes, though, is unlikely to let go of its Chinese dream without a fight. As for Gahr Store, he’s shortly taking off for a trip to China.

Get ready for more such clashes between business, job creation, and national security—and local communities and those in charge of protecting our countries.

[dankusner]

The Americans Prepping for a Second Civil War

“Did he say fight?” Drew Miller asked me.

It was July 13th, and we were in rural Colorado, near an outpost of Fortitude Ranch, a network of survivalist retreats that Miller has constructed in anticipation of civilizational collapse.

News of the attempted assassination of Donald Trump—the first one—had just pinged:

a young man named Thomas Crooks had shot at Trump from a rooftop near a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, striking his right ear.

Trump had stood, with blood on his face, and shouted to his crowd, “Fight, fight, fight!”

The shooter’s motives were unknown, but Republicans were blaming Democrats.

“File charges against Joseph R. Biden for inciting an assassination,” Representative Mike Collins posted on X.

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene accused the “evil” Democratic Party of attempting “murder.”

Miller’s phone began to make the sound of a dog barking—his ringtone—as members and employees of the ranches sent texts and e-mails.

A salesperson in Nevada was seeing a sudden increase in requests to join:

“Member interest. I’m already getting previous leads texting me.”

A member in Colorado wondered if it was time to mobilize: “Should we do an alert?”

As the barking continued, I asked what Miller thought.

“This could stir things up,” he said, after a heavy pause. “Things could escalate.”

Miller, a fit and unnervingly analytical sixty-six-year-old, was wearing a Fortitude Ranch T-shirt and had a handgun holstered on his cargo pants.

He grew up in Nebraska, and served as an intelligence officer in the Air Force for thirty years before retiring as a colonel, in 2010.

He has long maintained a fixation on disaster.

A “Unabomber-type person,” he told me, could release a bioengineered virus to kill off “mammalian weeds,” as one prominent scientist has called humans;

an electromagnetic-pulse attack could cause months-long blackouts.

After retiring, Miller had an idea that combined his interest in readiness for such events with an entrepreneurial streak: establishing a survival community that was both comfortable and armed to the teeth.

He reached out to real-estate agents in West Virginia.

“I just said I wanted a remote location with year-round water, off the beaten path, accessible in all kinds of weather,” he told me.

“The first one said, ‘Oh, you’re looking for a survival location.’”

After several more agents had the same response, Miller asked one how they knew what he was after.

The agent replied, “We have people from every three-letter agency in D.C. with little places out here.”

Miller told me, “She even showed me a few! I thought, God dang it, people, you shouldn’t do that!” In 2015, Miller opened the first Fortitude Ranch in the mountains a couple of hours outside D.C.

Its proximity to the capital was strategic.

“That’s the obvious big target,” Miller told me.

At the time, foreign terrorist attacks were at the top of people’s minds.

“Now, for many, it’s civil war,” he said.

According to an analysis of FEMA data, some twenty million Americans are actively preparing for cataclysm—roughly twice as many as in 2017.

Political violence, including the spectre of civil war, is one of the reasons.

A recent study conducted by researchers at U.C. Davis concluded that one in three adults in the U.S., including up to half of Republicans, feel that violence is “usually or always justified” to advance certain political objectives (say, returning Trump to the White House).

In May, Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, told the Financial Times that he believed there was about a thirty-five-per-cent chance of civil war breaking out in America.

“We are now on the brink,” Dalio said, noting that a modern civil war—though it might not involve muskets—would see the fracturing of states and widespread defiance of federal law.

In June, Dalio upped his estimate to “uncomfortably more than 50 percent,” predicting “an existential battle of the hard right against the hard left in which you will have to pick a side and fight for it, or keep your head down, or flee.”

Fortitude Ranch has more than a thousand members of all political persuasions, including doctors, engineers, restaurant workers, pilots, and entrepreneurs.

“I’m not some hard-core prepper survivalist,” George, a retired C.I.A. officer in Texas, who asked that I use only his first name, told me.

“I don’t want to live without running water or air-conditioning or run around in the woods for long. But it’s like the old saying goes: When trouble is on the horizon, a wise man takes precautions. Civil war is a definite possibility.”

A man named Pat, who works as a computer scientist in Colorado, agreed.

“The potential for violence across the country scares us,” he told me. “Fortitude Ranch is insurance.”

Where possible, ranches have farm animals, fishponds, fruit trees, edible bugs, and “survival crops,” including Jerusalem artichokes, which yield roughly sixty times more calories per acre than beef.

Miller’s goal is to open dozens of ranches around the country.

There are currently seven, which range in size from ten to a hundred and sixty acres.

Their precise whereabouts are officially secret, but all are strategically remote.

The Colorado ranch, I can confirm, is a few hours from the closest Home Depot.

On the drive in, Miller had stopped there to buy drywall for the ranch’s quonset hut—a three-story structure with a galvanized steel roof, bullet-resistant walls, and enough underground rooms to cozily house a hundred new neighbors.

We pulled into a clearing with a view of the ranch: a scattering of structures on a dozen acres of arid, rocky land beneath snow-dusted peaks.

There were some penned-up dogs and chickens, a greenhouse, a broken tractor.

Forty years ago, for a Ph.D. at Harvard, Miller wrote a dissertation on “underground nuclear defense shelters and field fortifications,” so I’d expected the ranch’s living quarters to look formidable, if not fancy.

But as I stepped inside the quonset hut, which Miller had dubbed the Viking Lodge, my first impression was of a hastily erected college dorm.

There were three dozen rooms, and half had been claimed.

Members had paid between four thousand and sixty thousand dollars to join—depending on time frame (five to fifty years), group size, and amenities (en-suite toilets cost extra)—plus annual dues of up to fifteen hundred dollars.

Inside the rooms, I saw bare mattresses, stacked furniture, a PlayStation, sacks of rice, pallets of canned tuna, boxes of Pop-Tarts, Costco emergency food buckets (potato potpie, vanilla pudding), packs of D batteries, pairs of snake boots, reams of toilet paper, some Dan Brown novels, and containers of coffee.

“My wife says my espresso is a religious experience,” Larry, the ranch’s assistant manager, told me, as we examined some coffee beans he’d stockpiled.

“I’ve got enough dark roast here to keep us all going for six months at five cups a day.”

Larry, who is sixty-nine, explained that his full-time job is with a “three-letter government agency” that deploys him to war zones.

Like most Fortitude Ranchers, Larry could foresee society breaking down in a number of ways:

a nuclear detonation,

another pandemic,

or rising political violence that could split the country into warring factions.

He drew a crude map of the U.S. on scrap paper.

Two squiggly lines partitioned off the east, the west, and the middle. “I can see three different Americas,” he said.

Miller had told me earlier that day that he thinks Texas, where he lives, will likely secede if Trump loses again.

If Trump wins, states such as Oregon and Colorado could break apart along political lines.

War might follow, even accidentally.

“Maybe someone shoots Governor Abbott and then other nuts start shooting at Fort Hood,” Miller said.

“The media misreports it and some militias form and fight. It would be irrational, but irrational wars are perfectly normal.”

So what then?

When disaster nears, Larry told me, an alert will go out to members via an app.

(If messages can’t be sent, “it’ll be pretty obvious you should go to the nearest ranch,” he added.)

Only paid-up members will be allowed in.

Pets are welcome, though they might be consumed in a pinch.

Each ranch, Larry explained, has a natural water source and a year’s worth of food per member.

But, because that food may run out, there are also—where possible—farm animals, fishponds, fruit trees, edible bugs, and “survival crops,” including Jerusalem artichokes, which yield roughly sixty times more calories per acre than beef. But the tuber, I learned, can also be hard to digest.

“Constipation in a SHTF ain’t going to be pretty,” one commenter, using prepper shorthand for “shit hits the fan,” posted on a Reddit thread about Fortitude Ranch.

Larry reassured me, “Coffee helps.”

After walking past a reading nook, Larry and I climbed a spiral staircase to a roof deck with a grill and solar panels.

During a collapse, ranch members would come here to survey for threats.

There were waist-high walls, which, Larry told me admiringly, “can sop up an AK round.”

He gestured out at the wilderness.

“A thousand-yard shot? I own you.”

Earlier, Miller had casually remarked that members would “shallow-bury dead marauders”—his preferred term for attackers—“to produce worms for our chickens.”

I’d seen the chickens, but I asked Larry where the weapons were.

He led me to a neighboring log cabin and opened a hidden door.

Shotguns, pistols, AR-15s, and boxes of ammo sat by a bunk bed, along with a crossbow.

“There’s enough here for at least a month of fighting off marauders,” Larry said.

One member of another ranch, he added, has cached nineteen guns and thirty thousand rounds just for himself.

Back at the Viking Lodge, I met Benjamin, a middle-aged restaurant manager, who was hanging around the ranch, as members sometimes do.

He was marinating lamb in a subterranean kitchen.

Lunchtime.

“You want to be a minimum of five miles off pavement,” Benjamin said. “We’re ten and a half.”

I asked about the possibility of marauders.

“We’ve got plans to contend with them from the time they get to the gate,” he said.

“There’s a lot of ambush spots.”

Military know-how distinguishes Fortitude from “your average prepper bugout setup,” Miller had told me.

“Solo preppers will mostly get wiped out.”

Most of the ranches have a few members with medical training, which will help, too.

“We don’t recruit for skills,” Miller said.

“But it’s nice when members are useful.”

Before I left, Larry had me do some target practice.

From various distances, I fired an AR-15 at a paper plate pinned to a tree.

Members would soon gather for preëlection firearm trainings of their own.

Larry and Miller have their quarrels—for example, over whether to raise tilapia in a cattle trough inside the hut.

(Larry thinks it would require too much energy; Miller wants fresh fish.)

But they agree that the period between now and the Presidential Inauguration is a time of especially high risk.

The morning after my visit, Miller sent out his monthly newsletter early.

“Trump assassination attempt moves us closer to Civil War,” he wrote.

“We are of course monitoring this situation, and will issue an alert if irrational violence erupts, bad people and looters exploit it, and law and order breaks down.”

The ranches would be prepared during Election Day and the uncertain period to follow.

Miller told me, “Trump is still dodging the question of whether he’ll accept the results. We’ll be ready.”

There has been a growing understanding, felt on a sensory level, of what the World Economic Forum recently referred to as the “polycrisis.”

A warming planet does not exist in a vacuum, separate from global pandemics and widening wealth gaps; crises amplify one another.

Still, some stand out.

A recent study found that half of Americans expect a second civil war to happen “in the next few years,” even if the specifics vary according to one’s politics and imagination.

A liberal writer in Los Angeles recently told me that he imagines “duelling militias, like the Lebanese civil war,” following a “fascist takeover” in January.

A family member of mine who supports Trump told me that she believes a more traditional civil war will begin, “if they kill Trump.”

She wasn’t clear who “they” are.

But she reminded me that, like many of her friends, she is well armed.

(I was aware; I’d once stumbled upon one of her guns hidden behind a toaster.)

A progressive lawyer I know in Atlanta, who is Jewish, bought an AR-15 after January 6th as a hedge against antisemitic and political violence.

“If Harris wins, tensions could escalate,” he said.

“The divisions in the country are so strong, and they’re not going to go away.”

Some politicians are even speaking about civil war publicly.

In July, after Trump selected J. D. Vance as his running mate, George Lang, a Republican state senator in Ohio, told a crowd at a campaign rally, “I’m afraid if we lose this one, it’s going to take a civil war to save the country.”

He went on, “And if we come down to a civil war I’m glad we got people like . . . Bikers for Trump on our side.”

Lang later apologized for the incendiary remarks, but he is hardly alone in expressing such sentiment.

Kevin Roberts, the president of the Heritage Foundation, recently referred to a “second American revolution,” now under way, “which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”

The pro-Trump commentator Tim Pool has invoked “civil war” dozens of times on X, where he has more than two million followers.

Marjorie Taylor Greene prefers calling for “a national divorce.”

Trump increasingly refers to the “enemies within.”

It’s not just rhetoric.

A Reuters investigation identified more than two hundred cases of political violence between January 6, 2021, and August of last year, and noted that “America is grappling with the biggest and most sustained increase in political violence since the 1970s.”

Each of Fortitude Ranch’s compounds has enough food and provisions to sustain members for a year.

Last year, Michael Haas, a former political-science professor at the University of Hawaii, published a book titled “Beyond Polarized American Democracy: From Mass Society to Coups and Civil War.”

Haas, who is now eighty-six and has retired to Los Angeles, told me that he, too, is more concerned than ever about the threat of civil war.

He thinks that it could begin with an armed attempt to stop the counting of electoral votes in December.

“They’ll start shooting,” Haas told me.

“And in the chaos they—these pro-Trump anarchists—become the party of power. That’s where Sinclair Lewis hit it right on the button.”

(Lewis’s novel “It Can’t Happen Here,” from 1935, imagines a fascist leader imposing totalitarian rule over the United States.)

“The reason they want anarchy is they will be in charge. They have the guns.”

I asked Haas what preparations he’s made for such a conflict.

He seemed to be relying mainly on topography.

“I live on a hill with a gate that’s usually closed,” he told me.

Barbara Walter, a professor at U.C. San Diego and an expert on civil war, recently detailed a worst-case election scenario. Trump loses, and protests of the result, inflamed by the former President, turn into riots.

What’s left of the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys join in.

Assassinations first target Republicans deemed traitorous.

“The Adam Kinzingers and Liz Cheneys of the world,” Walter said.

The mob turns on minorities, immigrants, and other scapegoat communities.

Judges are shot.

The worst of this violence occurs in fairly diverse states—Georgia, Nevada, Arizona—as it did during Reconstruction in places where whites felt their privilege endangered, such as Birmingham and Memphis.

An economically powerful red state, perhaps Texas, attempts to secede.

Ignoring the lessons of Ruby Ridge and Waco, the Harris Administration uses disproportionate force to deter other states from following suit.

Innocent people die.

Everyday Americans are radicalized by the apparent validation of the extremists’ claim that federal power is the enemy.

Civil war is on its way.

Walter’s scenario gets foggy from there, but we know that economic growth declines during civil wars, as do health outcomes.

Travel is hard.

Most troubling to Walter, outside actors get involved.

“China, Russia, and Iran would want to help Texas militias,” Walter told me.

“Texas could become a dictatorship run by some crazy guy whose best friends are Putin and Xi Jinping.”

Such a chain of events still seems unlikely.

But Anna Maria Bounds, a sociology professor at Queens College, told me that people are already “taking sides and prepping for violence.”

Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly spent more than a hundred million dollars building what Wired called “an opulent techno-Xanadu” on a Hawaiian island, “complete with underground shelter and what appears to be a blast-resistant door.”

Average Americans are preparing in less costly ways.

Some are stocking up on toilet paper, or buying Taser guns or fish antibiotics.

(They’re cheaper than human antibiotics but lack F.D.A. approval.)

Others are getting Lasik, filling gas cans, or withdrawing “go money” from the bank.

A Utah company called Armormax has been bulletproofing vehicles for three decades.

Until recently, most customers were foreign dignitaries with fancy cars.

Now many Americans are armoring normal ones.

Protecting a vehicle’s glass from .44-calibre or 9-millimetre fire starts at around forty thousand dollars.

For twice that, an entire vehicle, including its tires, can be made AR-15- and M16-proof.

Domestic demand for these services is nearly seven times what it was in 2020.

“We’re selling as many as we can build,” Mark Burton, the C.E.O., told me. On the company’s blog, he recently wrote a post with a section called “How to Survive a Civil War.”

(Advice: “Make sure that the gas tank is full.”)

In late September, the Wall Street Journal published a story titled “The Most Surprising New Gun Owners Are U.S. Liberals.”

It noted the recent creation of gun groups marketed to Democrats, including one in Los Angeles called L.A. Progressive Shooters.

Nearly three in ten liberals now own guns, according to a University of Chicago survey; researchers at Johns Hopkins have determined that more than half of Democratic gun buyers since 2020 are first-time owners.

One of them is Bradley Garrett, a forty-three-year-old academic and the author of “Bunker,” an account of Americans planning for the end times.

This sort of prepping seems to have increased in the run-up to the election, he said.

“You can imagine infighting breaking out in pockets of the United States, and progressives would be at a severe disadvantage,” he told me.

“They don’t have the weapons or the preparation.”

Garrett, who lives in Southern California, bought a shotgun this spring:

“I’m on a five-acre ranch pretty far out. But, if things devolved in L.A. very quickly, I can imagine people fleeing to the desert and looking for a refuge—and that’s not gonna be at my house.”

Others are taking less militaristic measures.

A recent attendee of a Homesteaders of America event where participants preserved food told me that some were preparing provisions in case of political violence.

“They kept talking about being ready for when ‘they come,’ ” she recalled. “Just ‘they.’ ”

In May, I spoke on the phone with a man named John Ramey, who was vague about his location.

“I’m at the homestead of someone who hired me to help him choose where and how to build a home to deal with the full range of threats,” he said.

The panhandle of Idaho and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan are both good places to weather the worst of climate change, he explained, “but, depending on your politics, you’re very clearly going to choose one over the other for the threat of civil war.”

Ramey has done as much as anyone to help the act of prepping trade its tinfoil hat for an Eagle Scout badge.

He worked as a Silicon Valley investor and entrepreneur, and then as an “innovations adviser” in the Obama Administration.

In 2018, he launched a Web site called the Prepared, a resource for people interested in disaster packing lists, gear reviews, and emergency plans, offered in a refreshingly measured tone.

Readers can learn how to use two-way radios, safely store water, and obtain body armor.

Also, where to buy the best wet wipes.

When Ramey sold the site, in 2022, it had eight million annual readers.

“Preparedness is now part of modern adulting,” he said.

Today, Ramey is a disaster consultant who, among other services, helps clients build fortified homesteads in rural areas.

His own politics seem to lie in a no man’s land: he’s a supporter of both expansive gun rights and expanding the number of Justices on the Supreme Court.

But, like Drew Miller, he doesn’t particularly care who hires him.

“There’s the guy quoting a bullshit Newsmaxy thing about how ‘eight hundred thousand illegals have a voter I.D.,’ ” he told me of his customers.

“Then, there’s a Silicon Valley leader, a blue-hearted liberal, who’ll point to what the Supreme Court is doing with Roe. They’ve both concluded the system is broken.”

Twice during our recent conversations, Ramey quoted a grim Thomas Jefferson line:

“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”

He told me, “It’s proven in human history that you create an institution, you create rules, and they’ll eventually reach their endgame. Things become unrepairable. The only answer is to build a new house.”

He meant this both metaphorically and literally.

“A client worked for an elections bureau in a blue state during the last cycle and the MAGAs wanted to kill him,” he said.

“So he sold his house and left.”

(Such threats have since become commonplace. In Georgia, election officials have started keeping Narcan beside voting tabulators, after receiving a spate of fentanyl-laced letters. In Pennsylvania, a building that houses an elections office is now encircled by a barricade of protective boulders.)

In early August, I met Ramey in the mountains of central Colorado.

He is a tall, languid man in his late thirties who sometimes lapses into tech-bro speak, as when referring to his “founder” pals.

A few weeks earlier, a federal judge had dismissed Jack Smith’s classified-documents case against Trump, in a move that many considered partisan.

“Our society put a lot of effort into building systems for redress, like the justice system,” Ramey told me.

“But when they fail—as they are now—we go back to the only tool available: violence.”

He showed me around the remote mountain home of one of his family members, for whom he had created an elaborate prepping setup.

Cisterns held three thousand gallons of water;

solar panels and batteries stored three weeks of power;

dehydrated food was stacked high in a barn.

“The people talking about civil war are not pariahs anymore,” he said.

We sat down on a porch with a friend of Ramey’s, Chris Ellis, who’d just come from a cold swim in a nearby alpine lake.

In the course of a decade, Ellis conducted military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kosovo and then earned a Ph.D. in political science from Cornell.

In 2023, he became the chief of future operations for the United States Northern Command, which is in charge of assessing disaster threats to the U.S.

“We look at everything from fentanyl to nuclear threats and wildfires,” he said.

“The only conversation I have not had is zombie apocalypse.”

(Ellis spoke to me as a private individual, not on behalf of the Department of Defense.)

Ellis and Ramey diverge on the likelihood of civil war.

“Are there concerning things happening? Yes,” Ellis said.

“But I don’t like ‘civil war’ being thrown around.”

Still, he acknowledged a real fraying of the social fabric.

Most people, Ellis and Ramey concede, can’t afford a worst-case homestead.

But they can make their current homes more resilient by tightening the screws on the front door, adding window bars, securing a backup power source, and getting to know their neighbors.

“The people around you are often your best protection,” Ellis said.

“Say hello.”

And, if all else fails, drive.

Ramey took me out to his Ford F-350.

“I’ll show you my bag in the back seat,” he said.

Bugout bags are an essential prepper accessory, subject to endless dissection and debate.

Dion Coleman, who goes by Marine X on his YouTube channel, recommends packing pepper gel in anticipation of political unrest, to “disengage the enemy and get away,” as he put it to me recently.

Coleman said that a Bic lighter offers a cheap combat hack:

“Hold it in your fist and you’re less likely to break fingers when you throw a punch.”

Bugout stashes are ultimately idiosyncratic.

“I have guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water, gas masks from the Israeli Defense Force,” Sam Altman, the C.E.O. of OpenAI, has said.

The writer Walter Kirn recently told his hundred and seventy thousand followers on X that, along with Oreo cookies and a multi-tool, his car’s bugout kit has “an emergency library of essential world literature,” including “The Arabian Nights” and “old copies of Norton Anthologies.”

These, he explained, are to “restart civilization.”

Reached by phone, Kirn noted a number of other books in the trunk—“Moby-Dick,” Sherlock Holmes, and a compendium of Oxford philosophy—and joked that, using the contents of his car, he could “probably found Christ Church college again.”

He went on, “In a real breakdown, I might be able to trade them or teach. Prepping is really a meditation on what you value.”

Ramey pulled a first-aid kit from his bugout bag.

“If you get shot in the lung, I can save you,” he said.

Next, he took out a portable solar panel for charging devices.

He withdrew charging cables, laminated maps, a compass (“ ‘Death by G.P.S.’ is a term in the search-and-rescue community”), duct tape, a multi-tool, a battery bank, a ham radio, a USB drive containing vital personal documents, food that wouldn’t cause thirst or require cooking (“compressed bricks of carbs held together by coconut”), a butane stove, a lightweight sleeping bag, a set of clothes, a water filter, two water bottles (“Two is one, and one is none”), a waterproof deck of cards (“mental health”), a wad of cash, and—without comment—a 9-millimetre pistol.

Ramey asked how I was feeling.

I was, to use a phrase he likes, somewhere near “the bottom of the ladder in the pit of despair.”

He nodded.

Time to climb out.

Start by stockpiling two weeks of food, water, and power, he advised, calling this “turtle mode.”

He also suggested learning new skills.

Knowing how to use a gun is good, he said, but so is being able to make a fire and read a map.

Ramey repeated a prepper truism: “The more you know, the less you need.”

I called up some survival schools, which are now catering to a new clientele.

“It used to be mostly soldier-of-fortune and doomsday-prepper guys who took the courses,” Shane Hobel, who runs Mountain Scout, in East Fishkill, New York, told me recently.

“Now it’s women. Even Democrats. People who used to make fun of my school.”

He said that he’s noticed a “quiet desperation building into a slow hum: people concerned about political unrest, the dollar dropping.”

He teaches how to improvise rustic shelter, use tools and weapons, rely on camouflage, and administer first aid.

Dave Canterbury, the founder of the Pathfinder school, in Ohio, and the author of the popular Bushcraft book series, told me that his courses are gaining popularity, too, though most of his students aren’t specific about why they’ve come.

“They probably don’t want to end up on watch lists,” he said. “And, anyway, it’s nobody’s business.”

Anamaria Teodorescu, who immigrated to the U.S. from Romania twenty-two years ago and now lives in New Jersey, decided to pursue survival education last year because, she told me, “America is dying.”

She sees food shortages and election malfeasance on the horizon.

“I lived through it in Romania,” she said.

“Hungry people won’t ask for bread—they’ll kill for it.”

She’s taken ten of Hobel’s courses, bringing her six-year-old daughter along.

“She learned camouflage a couple of weeks ago,” Teodorescu said.

Hobel shared other stories.

The parents of a group of homeschoolers had signed up because, they said, the government can’t be trusted.

An elderly Jewish couple in Greenwich Village had learned how to repurpose sidewalk detritus (cardboard can be used for warmth; scraps of clothing can filter water or mark trails), but “they wanted more,” Hobel said.

He helped them plan an escape route from their home.

Among Hobel’s special offerings is a course on the “art of invisibility”—also helpful, he said, in times of unrest.

“Never walk down the street with your viewpoint,” he told me.

“Always walk with the viewpoint of the person who wants to attack you. When he turns around to look at you, you’ll already be behind the dumpster.” I tried this while walking my dog.

Miller at Fortitude Ranch’s compound in Texas. “Solo preppers will mostly get wiped out,” he said.

At Fieldcraft Survival, a training outfit in Provo, Utah, students study jujitsu and firearms.

The school recently débuted Program 62—a reference to the Homestead Act of 1862, which was designed to grant land to Americans who hadn’t fought for the Confederacy in the Civil War—in which online students create personal preparedness plans and learn about things like ballistic sunglasses, conflict code words, canning, and sealing chest wounds (cost: eight hundred and fifty dollars).

Greg Lapin, an instructor at Fieldcraft, told me that most clients “can’t do ten burpees in a row or run up two flights of stairs” and will be “dead within the first five minutes of a gunfight.”

He added, “What you should be doing now to prepare is get a gym membership.”

I already had one.

So, in September, I visited Sarcraft, a survival school closer to my home, in Atlanta.

Alex Bryant, a thirty-three-year-old Eagle Scout, started it in 2017.

For the first few years, his students mostly were white outdoor enthusiasts and military types, but lately he’s had an influx of newcomers “who’ve never hunted, fished, or started a fire,” he told me.

“They realize that we have the markers of a very tumultuous time.”

He will soon begin teaching a course related to civil unrest, in which students pack “get home” bags.

In the meantime, they continue to learn the essentials: shelter, fire, foraging.

A wealth-management adviser who lives in an Atlanta suburb told me that he took Sarcraft’s introductory navigation course this summer to prepare for “some militant right-wing nutjobs pulling off acts of violence around the election.”

He added, “Some people just buy guns. I wanted to know how to get home, too.”

Another Sarcraft navigation seminar recently took place in the hills of northern Georgia.

Eight of us sat on wooden benches in an open-air shelter, including Ray and Rachel, a father and daughter from Braselton, who had just stocked up on emergency food from 4patriots.com; a young woman named Valerie, from Sharpsburg, who works in finance at a Fortune 500 company and had recently taken up archery; and a middle-aged scientist from Atlanta who was considering buying a gun.

Our instructor was a stout, silver-haired veteran of the 82nd Airborne Division named Buck Freitag.

“Nobody is shooting at us yet,” Freitag deadpanned, when an acorn smacked the metal roof.

“If it’s gunfire, I’ll tell everyone to get down.”

The second assassination attempt on Trump in a little more than two months had taken place only a few days earlier.

A man named Ryan Routh had allegedly set up an SKS-style rifle in the bushes lining the Mar-a-Lago golf course.

The Secret Service spotted his weapon before he could fire.

“I tried my best,” a note that he’d reportedly left behind read.

“It is up to you now to finish the job.”

He offered a hundred and fifty thousand dollars to anyone who did so.

At the navigation course, a tattooed mechanic named Mark, sitting next to me with his notebook open, shook his head.

“Now they’re going to start talking about taking our guns again,” he told me.

“That could start a civil war.”

Miller shows some of the munitions stockpiled at one of his compounds.

Shaun, a bearded fifty-nine-year-old insurance-claims adjuster and a Sarcraft graduate, who was assisting Freitag, nodded.

“We’re heading for a societal upset,” he said.

“I look at what Scripture says about what’s coming, and I believe it.”

Moments later, Mark showed me his Glock, tucked in his belt.

“It’s already happened,” he said.

“Revolutionary War. Civil War. No society lasts. We’re on the edge again.”

When society collapses, the biggest threat, he figures, will be “the ex-Navy seal that’s come out of retirement.

The government is paying him.

All this guy knows is blood.

He’s Rambo.

And if he’s got a killing itinerary and they’re paying the bill, that’s all he cares about.”

Mark had seen something about this on YouTube.

At the moment, he felt reasonably prepared.

He can shoot, ride a motorcycle, and administer first aid.

He has a bugout bag in his truck.

But he wanted to know how to “read the squiggly lines on a map.”

Freitag passed out compasses and demonstrated how to plot a precise path.

We split into groups, each with a handful of navigation targets: metal posts with buckets on them, labelled with a letter indicated on our map.

I was partnered with Mark, who decided to pretend that we were fleeing government troops.

“Federales,” Mark exclaimed.

“We’re trying to get free from federales!”

We reached the first target, a bucket marked “Q”—for “Quebec,” Mark determined, a safe haven from the authorities coming for our guns.

After pausing for a moment, we headed to the next target and stumbled off course into someone’s yard.

A Confederate flag was visible on the porch.

“See, that wasn’t so long ago,” Mark said.

Most experts think that another full-scale American civil war is highly unlikely in the near term.

Ellis, the future-operations director, explained that it would take leadership, funding, and a singularly explosive disagreement to start such a conflict.

“The eighteen-sixties had slavery,” he said.

“You may despise your uncle at Thanksgiving. But do you disagree about something enough to get in a gray coat, he gets in a blue coat, and you meet on a field of battle to shoot at each other?”

And if so, he said, who are the opposing generals?

Could Erik Prince—the founder of Blackwater, who recently said,

“Maybe it’s worth going to war over defining what a gender is”—command a MAGA army? Would an Antifa member lead a coalition of the left? America has periodic eruptions of political unrest, Ellis argued, but none has come close to a civil war.

“It’s not Black Lives Matter protests, or January 6th, or Thomas Crooks,” he said.

Even the hypothetical secession of Texas might fall short of provoking civil war.

“President Harris would have a decision,” Ellis theorized.

“Am I going to commit federal forces to bring a rebellious state to heel through war? Or am I just going to send in the military and treat it more like a civil criminal action and arrest Governor Abbott and the legislature that voted for this to happen?”

Garrett, the author of “Bunker,” thinks that there is still too much fellow-feeling in America for a civil war—a conclusion he reached while witnessing surprising moments of coöperation and camaraderie between militaristic MAGA types and back-to-the-land hippies at bunker communities that he has visited in recent years.

Some recent research can be read optimistically, too: only three per cent of U.S. adults—around eight million people—are “very or completely willing to threaten, injure, or kill to advance a political aim,” according to the U.C. Davis study.

Sarah Kreps, a professor of government at Cornell, pointed me to another reason for hope.

“I’ve heard about the ‘cyber 9/11’ or the ‘cyber Pearl Harbor’ for at least two decades,” she said, referring to the possibility of a large-scale hack that causes national paralysis.

“Nothing remotely of that magnitude has happened. So it’s this question of whether these were just fearmongers, or whether that prediction of an apocalyptic scenario was, in fact, a reason why it didn’t happen.”

The more we discuss threats, Kreps said, “the more we guard against them.”

In this way, the civil-war talk of late has, counterintuitively, given her reason for optimism.

“As these scenarios get gamed out, the political space has more capacity to anticipate and guard against them,” she told me.

Still, our deepening obsession with civil war points to something real.

“It’s not 1861,” Bounds, the sociology professor, said. “But there’s a hostility growing in this country.”

Members of Fortitude Ranch pay thousands of dollars to join, plus annual dues.

For those who remain concerned about civil war but can’t leave the couch, there are apps.

Earlier this year, Drew Miller, of Fortitude Ranch, released one called Collapse Survivor, whose full suite of features costs ten dollars a year.

In addition to helping users assemble survival supplies, and alerting them to impending disasters “before the government will,” the app allows users to play out a number of disaster scenarios, including “AI Uranium Enrichment Terrorist Nuclear Attacks,” “Grid Down, Cyber,” and “End of Earth Asteroid.”

(Pro tip: gather bugs.)

This summer, I spent an hour going through one of Miller’s civil-war scenarios.

It had several precipitating events, according to the troubling text that filled my smartphone’s screen:

killings at Democratic events and offices;

attacks on judges and courthouses;

a proposed AR-15 ban.

A Democratic congresswoman announced, “This is a civil war, and if we don’t start fighting fire with fire, we will lose.”

There was widespread looting and home invasions.

Police quit.

Prison inmates escaped.

A neglected nuclear reactor released tons of radiation.

Members of Greenpeace killed climate deniers, and police shot curfew breakers.

Millions of residents fled New York and other cities after they were suddenly seized by gangs.

Militias spread.

Food dwindled.

Biden died of a stroke after winning a close election—this was before he dropped out—and Kamala Harris was sworn in, prompting Trump to announce, “If she stays on as an unelected President you’re really going to see violence, this country truly ripped apart.”

I was prompted with questions as the crisis worsened.

If there was a ten-per-cent chance of being shot or severely injured at a voting precinct, would you vote?

A private militia is forming in your neighborhood—will you join?

Where is a safe location to bug out?

Some of the questions, I noticed, seemed to point to the wisdom of joining Fortitude Ranch.

For most of them, I had no answer.

At the end of the simulation, Texas seceded in what was dubbed Texit, and various counties in Oregon and Colorado did the same, creating “American Oregon” and “Real Colorado.”

The narration concluded, “The POTUS election collapse is over, but the U.S. breakup and civil war has just begun.”

Suddenly thirsty, I went to the sink.

A post-simulation summary appeared on my screen:

I was among the survivors.

I plugged the phone into an outlet and went for a long walk.

It was a late summer day in America.

I smiled at my neighbors and wondered what plans they’d made.

I considered the lay of the land more closely now, and noted what was edible, and what would be edible soon, in the parks and the public spaces I passed.

When I got home, I did something I’d been putting off:

I began to pack a bag.

[govindhtech]

VPC Flow Analyzer: Your Key to Network Traffic Intelligence

Overview of the Flow Analyzer

Without writing intricate SQL queries to analyze VPC Flow Logs, you can quickly and effectively comprehend your VPC traffic flows with Flow Analyzer. With a 5-tuple granularity (source IP, destination IP, source port, destination port, and protocol), Flow Analyzer enables you to conduct opinionated network traffic analysis.

Flow Analyzer, created with Log Analytics and driven by BigQuery, allows you to examine your virtual machine instances’ inbound and outgoing traffic in great detail. It enables you to keep an eye on, troubleshoot, and optimize your networking configuration for improved security and performance, which helps to guarantee compliance and reduce expenses.

Data from VPC Flow Logs that are kept in a log bucket (record format) are examined by Flow Analyzer. You must choose a project with a log bucket containing VPC Flow Logs in order to use Flow Analyzer. Network monitoring, forensics, real-time security analysis, and cost optimization are all possible with VPC Flow Logs.

The fields contained in VPC Flow Logs are subjected to searches by Flow Analyzer.

The following tasks can be completed with Flow Analyzer:

Create and execute a basic VPC Flow Logs query.

Create a SQL filter for the VPC Flow Logs query (using a WHERE statement).

Sort the query results based on aggregate packets and total traffic, then arrange the results using the chosen attributes.

Examine the traffic at specific intervals.

See a graphical representation of the top five traffic flows over time in relation to the overall traffic.

See a tabular representation of the resources with the most traffic combined over the chosen period.

View the query results to see the specifics of the traffic between a given source and destination pair.

Utilizing the remaining fields in the VPC Flow Logs, drill down the query results.

How it operates

A sample of network flows sent from and received by VPC resources, including Google Kubernetes Engine nodes and virtual machine instances, are recorded in VPC Flow Logs.

The flow logs can be exported to any location supported by Logging export and examined in Cloud Logging. Log analytics can be used to perform queries that examine log data, and the results of those queries can subsequently be shown as tables and charts.

By using Log Analytics, Flow Analyzer enables you to execute queries on VPC Flow Logs and obtain additional information about the traffic flows. This includes a table that offers details about every data flow and a graphic that shows the largest data flows.

Components of a query

You must execute a query on VPC Flow Logs in order to examine and comprehend your traffic flows. In order to view and track your traffic flows, Flow Analyzer assists you in creating the query, adjusting the display settings, and drilling down.

Traffic Aggregation

You must choose an aggregation strategy to filter the flows between the resources in order to examine VPC traffic flows. The following is how Flow Analyzer arranges the flow logs for aggregation:

Source and destination: this option makes use of the VPC Flow Logs’ SRC and DEST data. The traffic is aggregated from source to destination in this view.

Client and server: this setting looks for the person who started the connection. The server is a resource that has a lower port number. Because services don’t make requests, it also views the resources with the gke_service specification as servers. Both directions of traffic are combined in this shot.

Time-range selector

The time-range picker allows you to center the time range on a certain timestamp, choose from preset time options, or define a custom start and finish time. By default, the time range is one hour. For instance, choose Last 1 week from the time-range selector if you wish to display the data for the previous week.

Additionally, you can use the time-range slider to set your preferred time zone.

Basic filters

By arranging the flows in both directions based on the resources, you may construct the question.

Choose the fields from the list and enter values for them to use the filters.

Filter flows that match the chosen key-value combinations can have more than one filter expression added to them. An OR operator is used if you choose numerous filters for the same field. An AND operator is used when selecting filters for distinct fields.

For instance, the following filter logic is applied to the query if you choose two IP address values (1.2.3.4 and 10.20.10.30) and two country values (US and France):

(Country=US OR Country=France) AND (IP=1.2.3.4 OR IP=10.20.10.30)

The outcomes may differ if you attempt to alter the traffic choices or endpoint filters. To see the revised results, you have to execute the query one more.

SQL filters

SQL filters can be used to create sophisticated queries. You can carry out operations like the following by using sophisticated queries:

Comparing the values of the fields

Using AND/OR and layered OR operations to construct intricate boolean logic

Utilizing BigQuery capabilities to carry out intricate operations on IP addresses

BigQuery SQL syntax is used in the SQL filter queries.

Query result

The following elements are included in the query results:

The highest data flows chart shows the remaining traffic as well as the top five largest traffic flows throughout time. This graphic can be used to identify trends, such as increases in traffic.

The top traffic flows up to 10,000 rows averaged during the chosen period are displayed in the All Data Flows table. The fields chosen to organize the flows while defining the query’s filters are shown in this table.

Read more on Govindhtech.com

[kaidatheghostdragon]

What a way to be outed. I do have thoughts on this, though.

My knowledge of the watchtower is from the dcau, where it had two incarnations, a small satellite base that housed only the original jl founders and was more of a small clubhouse, and the larger expanded watchtower that required a large staff of civilian operators and engineers.

If its the former, then the group danny happened upon just got their vigilante ids outed, once danny has slept enough to realize it. If the latter, their id's might be intact for a few reasons:

First, the public likely knows that the watchtower exists, regardless of how classified it might or might not be, in the same vein that many classified military bases are known about. Even if the civilian contractors are under strict ndas, they still have families, friends, and spouses that know their work schedule and a general idea of their day to day work life.

I also recall reading a fic where danny and tucker are able to identify the location of the watchtower by graphing out the ephimerides of the non-classified satellites and putting a big x on the mysterious empty space, which gives a similar impression to me of hobbyists that keep track of military movements by watching flight trackers. In other words, yes, certain things are classified, but enough non classified info is available that an intelligent person can work out a general big-picture with a bit of work.

Second, many satellites are visible to the naked eye, and the watchtower would probably be one of the largest objects in orbit, if not THE largest. I think it'd be one of those things where everyone kinda just knows that if they see an extremely bright satellite whizzing by, its probably the watchtower. However, cloaking technology exists in the dcu, so being invisible isnt out of the question.

With that explained, Danny is a Space Nerd (tm). Id imagine in the dcu, Space Nerd hobbies include tracking the watchtower, even if its location is technically classified. Its publically known that the watchtower hires civilian contractors by simple virtue of the fact that said contractors do not live completely isolated lives and their families talk about them. Becoming a civilian contractor for the watchtower is considered a legitimate career pathway to reach space, and would be talked about and affectionately argued over in the Space Nerd community.

Danny's first assumption upon meeting a group of space-goers in a random cafe, who aren't publically recognized astronauts, would be that he stumbled upon a group of civilian watchtower employees.

Depending on how sleep-deprived he is, he might or might not remember that their jobs are technically classified and outing them might put them in danger from enemies of the justice league, but i doubt he'd pass up this opportunity regardless, which means whoever is in the group gets to be stressed out over the mad scramble to cover up a security hole that nobody ever concieved of before now.

Danny is probably given an nda (and various bribes to ensure he signs it) within hours - which means he cant cite his new friends on his homework.

Of course, now we get to the point where we have to decide if the jl investigating danny discovered his alter ego, or if they dont find anything and assume hes a civilian meta with an extremely niche ability. (Also, whether or not his parents should be on some sort of watchlist.)

DP x DC prompt idea

Danny’s space powers are coming in. Because those are something he has, apparently.

He just moved to a new city for college. According to Frostbite, setting out from one’s initial haunt/deathplace long-term, to train or learn, is an important developmental stage for ghosts who are strong enough to do so. Which means his core has now developed enough to be clearly identifiable as a space core.

And also to give him new space powers, of course. Can’t forget that.

Thing is, of all the challenges he’s facing trying to make good first impressions at college while going through New Powers Puberty Part 2: Electric Boogaloo, Danny really thought the newfound ability to see whether someone’s been to space would be pretty low on his list of concerns.

Like, how often is that even relevant in everyday life, right? Hopefully he’ll meet astronauts through his Aerospace Engineering program, but it’s not like it should affect his ability to act normal around people day-to-day, right?

So how, exactly, did he manage to pick a regular study spot in a café also frequented by a group of random people who somehow each have more hours in space than literal crew members of the ISS?

And, more urgently, how long can his sleep-deprived brain resist asking them if they have any insights that will help with his homework?

[scottbiffin]

From Singapore to Brazil- The Global Network Behind Successful Trading

In today’s interconnected world, successful trading is no longer limited by geography. The ability to access and leverage a global network has become a critical factor for traders, especially in commodities markets like cotton and coffee. As a trader specializing in these commodities, I’ve witnessed firsthand how the combination of local insights and global connections can shape market strategies and drive success.

In this blog, I will explore how the global network—from Singapore to Brazil—plays an essential role in successful trading, drawing from my experiences and observations throughout my career in the cotton and coffee markets.

1. The Significance of Singapore in Global Trade

Singapore is widely recognized as a major hub for international trade and finance. With its strategic location at the crossroads of Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, Singapore has become a critical player in global commodities trading. As a trader based in Singapore, I have access to key financial markets, a vast array of shipping routes, and robust infrastructure that supports the efficient movement of goods across borders.

Singapore’s well-developed banking and financial services sector provides traders with access to capital, risk management solutions, and financial instruments, which are crucial for managing market volatility. Additionally, the city-state’s emphasis on transparency and strong regulatory frameworks fosters an environment of trust and reliability for international transactions.

From a personal perspective, being based in Singapore has given me access to a diverse array of global markets. Whether I am analyzing price trends for cotton in India or monitoring coffee production levels in Vietnam, Singapore’s connectivity allows me to stay in the loop with real-time market data and participate in the fast-moving world of global trading.

2. Brazil: The Heart of Coffee Production

While Singapore is a critical hub for financial and logistics services, Brazil represents a cornerstone of my trading career due to its dominance in the global coffee industry. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, responsible for over one-third of the global supply. Its vast coffee plantations, spanning from Minas Gerais to São Paulo, make it an indispensable part of the coffee supply chain.

In 2017, I had the opportunity to travel to Brazil, where I immersed myself in the country’s coffee trade and deepened my understanding of the market’s inner workings. My time in Brazil was an eye-opening experience, as I was able to visit coffee farms, meet with growers, and gain insight into the production process. I learned about the various factors that affect coffee yields, from weather patterns to soil quality and even global trade policies.

This trip also helped me build valuable relationships with coffee producers and traders in Brazil, strengthening my global network. These connections have proven invaluable in gaining access to firsthand market information, allowing me to make more informed trading decisions.

3. Building a Global Network: The Key to Success

Successful trading requires more than just technical analysis and market knowledge—it requires a strong global network. Over the years, I’ve developed relationships with industry players across various regions, including Asia, South America, and Europe. These connections provide me with an advantage in gathering market intelligence, spotting emerging trends, and reacting quickly to shifting market conditions.

Let’s break down the key components of a global trading network:

a) Local Knowledge and Market Access

One of the most important aspects of a global network is having access to local knowledge. Whether I’m trading cotton from India or coffee from Brazil, I rely on the expertise of local producers, suppliers, and traders. These individuals provide valuable insights into the state of the market, crop conditions, and pricing trends that can’t always be found in reports or data sets.

For example, the impact of weather on crop yields is often more accurately predicted by those on the ground. During my time in Brazil, I was able to gain a deeper understanding of how local conditions, such as droughts or frosts, could affect coffee production and pricing. This knowledge gave me a competitive edge in adjusting my trading strategies accordingly.

b) Real-Time Communication Across Markets

In today’s digital world, real-time communication is essential for success in trading. With markets spanning different time zones and regions, it’s crucial to stay connected 24/7. Platforms like WhatsApp, Slack, and Zoom allow traders to communicate with stakeholders in different countries instantaneously.

As a trader based in Singapore, I can communicate with colleagues in Brazil or Europe in real-time, even when markets are open in different time zones. This ability to maintain a constant flow of information is essential for making timely and strategic decisions, particularly in volatile markets like coffee and cotton.

c) Strategic Partnerships with Global Trading Houses

Another crucial element of a global trading network is the formation of strategic partnerships with large trading houses and institutions. Throughout my career, I’ve had the privilege of working with major trading houses such as ECOM Trading, Glencore, and Morgan Stanley. These institutions have extensive global reach, which allows for the pooling of resources, information, and expertise.

Through these partnerships, I’ve gained access to a broader range of trading tools, such as advanced risk management solutions, hedging strategies, and access to capital. The support of these trading houses has enabled me to take larger positions in the market and manage risks effectively, while also benefiting from their established relationships with suppliers and buyers.

4. Navigating the Challenges of Global Commodities Markets

Trading on a global scale is not without its challenges. Commodities markets, such as cotton and coffee, are highly influenced by factors that are often beyond a trader’s control, including:

Weather Variability: Weather conditions can greatly impact the supply of agricultural commodities. Droughts, frosts, and hurricanes can reduce crop yields and lead to price fluctuations.

Political and Economic Instability: Global commodities markets are vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, trade tariffs, and economic instability. For example, trade wars between major economies or currency fluctuations can disrupt supply chains and affect pricing.

Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chains are complex and vulnerable to disruptions. Transportation delays, labor strikes, or disruptions in shipping routes can impact the timely delivery of goods and alter market dynamics.

Successfully navigating these challenges requires a robust risk management strategy and the ability to adapt quickly. My global network plays a critical role in this aspect, as it allows me to gather real-time information, identify potential risks early, and adjust my trading strategies accordingly.

5. The Role of Technology in Expanding Global Networks

In addition to fostering personal relationships, the use of technology has become a game-changer in building and expanding global networks. Online platforms and data analytics tools have made it easier than ever to stay informed, conduct market research, and engage with industry experts from all corners of the world.

For instance, I use data analytics tools to track trends in the commodities markets and gain insights into market sentiment. I also subscribe to online industry publications and research reports that provide updates on global supply and demand dynamics. These resources help me stay ahead of the curve and make data-driven decisions.

Moreover, technology enables traders to attend virtual conferences, webinars, and forums where they can connect with other industry professionals, share knowledge, and build new relationships. This increased accessibility has accelerated the formation of global networks and strengthened collaboration across the commodities trading community.

6. Leveraging Cultural Understanding in Global Trade

Another often-overlooked aspect of successful trading on a global scale is cultural understanding. Building relationships with partners, suppliers, and clients in different countries requires sensitivity to cultural norms and business practices. I’ve found that taking the time to understand local customs and values can go a long way in building trust and fostering long-term relationships.

For example, in my dealings with coffee producers in Brazil, I’ve learned the importance of patience and relationship-building in their business culture. Establishing personal rapport is often a prerequisite to successful negotiations, and it’s not uncommon for meetings to begin with casual conversations over coffee before diving into business discussions.

Similarly, in Asian markets like India and Vietnam, understanding the hierarchical nature of business relationships has been essential in navigating negotiations and ensuring smooth transactions. By respecting local customs and taking a culturally informed approach, I’ve been able to strengthen my global network and secure mutually beneficial deals.

7. The Future of Global Trading: Trends and Opportunities

As the global trading landscape continues to evolve, new opportunities and challenges are emerging. Here are a few key trends that are shaping the future of global commodities trading:

Sustainability and Ethical Sourcing: Consumers are increasingly demanding ethically sourced products, particularly in commodities like coffee and cotton. Traders who can provide transparency in their supply chains and work with producers committed to sustainable practices will have a competitive edge.

Digitalization of Trade: The rise of blockchain technology, digital contracts, and AI-powered trading platforms is revolutionizing the way commodities are traded. These technologies enhance transparency, reduce transaction costs, and streamline the entire trading process.

Climate Change and Crop Resilience: As climate change continues to impact agricultural production, traders must be prepared for increased volatility in supply and pricing. Investment in crop resilience and alternative production methods will be critical for maintaining stability in the commodities markets.

Conclusion

From Singapore to Brazil and beyond, the success of global commodities trading is built on strong networks, strategic partnerships, and a deep understanding of local and international markets. By leveraging a global network of producers, traders, and institutions, I’ve been able to navigate the complexities of cotton and coffee markets, manage risks, and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

In the fast-paced world of trading, staying connected to the global market and maintaining relationships across continents is crucial for long-term success. The journey continues, and as markets evolve, the importance of building and nurturing a global network will only grow.