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zeldahime · 7 months ago

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Zelda Liveblogs a Lancet Paper

Following this post, I am now going to liveblog reading the Lancet paper cited by the Economist article to predict worldwide fertility to drop by 3/4s of its current position if current demographic trends continue. It is an Open Access article, so the entire thing is open for anyone on the internet to read.

Citation:

GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators (March 20, 2024). Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet, 403(10440), 2057-2099. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6.

I refuse to use Chicago style. This is mostly because I memorized APA and don't want to learn a new one.

First, my background: I am not a demographer; I am not trained as a demographer; I have studied it auxiliarily to my other academic pursuits. I fall in a sort of educated in-between. I am currently a Master's student in library and information sciences, and my undergraduate degree was in political science, both at USAmerican universities. However, the field of economics is also very close to my heart, and I would have double-majored in it if the opportunity and financial costs had not been too high to justify it. During the five years I was a college drop-out, I studied economics independently, reading broadly within the field and taking non-certificate courses online. I've been taking non-certificate courses in economics through correspondence or online since I was about nine. I'm not an expert! I do, however, think I'm a fairly well-informed amateur.

And a note on language. This paper refers to birthing parents as mothers and to the demographic that gives birth interchangeably as female and women. I acknowledge that this is a cissexist patriarchical viewpoint that erases transmen, nonbinary and intersex people, and probably others I'm not thinking of. For consistency between my reflections and the paper and ease of reading, I will do the same. I'm conscious I'm part of the problem here, but don't see a way around it without making my bits harder to understand than they have to be.

With that out of the way, here we go:

Methodology (Summary)

This is where me not being a demographer is an important thing to know. I neither know nor normally care about the statistical methods used to determine demography, just that the demographers aren't retracting papers over it. However, I do know that in general the CCF50 (total cohort fertility before the age of 50) is a neater and more accurate measurement to build projections on than the TFR (total fertility rate by year) and that's the methodology the paper's authors went with. This is good and promising. TFR for known years and CCF50 projections sounds like a solid method. 👍

We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined.

I'm very hopeful about these forecasts! They'll show a few different hopeful scenarios.

To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

This is a very responsible thing for the authors to have done, and I am interested to see how this is reflected in the models.

Findings (Summary)

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950,

(Emphasis mine. The numbers in parentheses are the confidence interval.) I think this is the most important takeaway from the whole damn paper. Makes sense, since it's the first line of the findings. If you read nothing else, read these three sentences. Global birthrates are barely above replacement (which, if you recall from my other essay, is generally considered to be ~2.1). To me, this implies lot of problems that traditionally have been considered solvable with population redistribution (meaning, mostly, immigration) may not be solvable that way even if fertility were to stop declining today and hold constant for the rest of the century.

Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa.

Holy shit. I cannot emphasize enough how low a TFR of 1.59 is. This is approximately the current TFR of the United Kingdom, and they're beginning to freak out even though they have relatively easy sources of additional replacement recruitment through the Commonwealth. Imagine that for the whole Earth. With only six countries as a potential source of surplus population to be redistributed.

Funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Makes sense. This is the kind of thing that foundation funds.

Introduction

Low levels of fertility have the potential over time to result in inverted population pyramids with growing numbers of older people and declining working-age populations. These changes are likely to place increasing burdens on health care and social systems, transform labour and consumer markets, and alter patterns of resource use.

Oh man, I wish I'd gone through this paper earlier, I could have just quoted this bit and been done instead of trying to explain it from scratch! 😂

The UN Population Division estimates of past fertility are not compliant with the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) statement in important respects; notably, they do not provide all code for statistical models or explicit details on criteria for exclusion or adjustment of primary data sources. Furthermore, the validity of UN Population Division projections has been questioned due to the assumptions applied in countries experiencing low post-transition fertility dropping below replacement level.

YES GO OFF 👏 The UN Population Division is so much more cagey about their data than the World Bank, it's so annoying, and they keep predicting increases that don't happen. I thought it was so weird as an undergrad but figured it was because of ~bureaucracy~ or privacy laws or whatever. It's nice to be vindicated [redacted] years later.

Our forecasts also suggest that, by 2100, the largest concentrations of livebirths will shift to low-income settings, particularly a subset of countries and territories in sub-Saharan Africa, which are among the most vulnerable to economic and environmental challenges. Extreme shifts in the global distribution of livebirths can be partially ameliorated by improved female education and met need for modern contraception. Outside of this subset of low-income areas, most of the world's countries will experience the repercussions of low fertility, with ageing populations, declining workforces, and inverted population pyramids, which are likely to lead to profound fiscal, economic, and social consequences. National policy makers and the global health community must plan to address these divided sets of demographic challenges emerging worldwide.

This is such an important point for them to make. Demography isn't a vacuum; it has significant real-world effects. By 2100, most babies born will be born in Africa, and we need to plan for that now. By 2100, most countries will not have enough workers, and we need to plan for that now. 2100 is not that far into the future. I, personally, will live to see the beginnings of the effects of this demographic shift, and I'm an adult who pays taxes and has a college degree and shit.

The Data Sources and Processing section is pretty standard and unremarkable. Good job.

Fertility Forecasting

We produced forecasts of fertility using an updated modelling framework (appendix 1 section 3) that improved on the methods in the 2020 study by Vollset and colleagues. In our updated methods, we used not only estimates of female educational attainment and contraceptive met need as covariates, but also estimates of under-5 mortality and population density in habitable areas to account for a larger variation in CCF50 across all countries in the sub-models (appendix 1 section 3.1, appendix 2 figure S2). Similar to Vollset and colleagues, we continued to forecast fertility with CCF50 rather than TFR, because modelling in cohort space is more stable than in period space.

Niiiiice. Covariates are things that, well, vary, alongside the thing you're trying to measure. For fertility, the most obvious one might be age of the mother at first birth; if someone is 16 at first birth, she probably will have more kids than someone who is 30 at first birth, for example. This model also includes how much schooling the mother gets, whether she has contraception, the mortality rate (that is, how many of them die) of children under five, and population density! That's a lot of statistical crunching and their model will be more precise for it. Precise isn't the same as accurate, but I think that with the variables they selected, they will travel in the same direction.

What a pretty equation. I don't understand it, but it's got a certain je ne sais quois.

For the education SDG scenario, the forecasts assume that by 2030, all people will have 12 years or more of education by the age of 25 years and then maintains the same rate of change as the reference scenario up to 2100. For the contraceptive met need scenario, to reflect the SDG scenario of universal access, the forecasts assumed a linear increase in contraceptive coverage to reach 100% by 2030 and then stay constant up to 2100.

I love how optimistic these scenarios are 😂 This truly is the best-case scenario for both the education forecast and the contraceptive forecast! I do hope everybody has 12+ years of education and 100% contraceptive coverage by 2030. Make it happen, António!!!!

(Joke explained: António Guterres is the current Secretary-General of the United Nations, and these goals are absolutely not going to be met by 2030.)

In the pro-natal scenario, we assumed a country will introduce pro-natal policies, such as childcare subsidies, extended parental leave, insurance coverage expansion for infertility treatment, 33 and other forms of support for parents to afford high-quality child-care services, once TFR decreases to less than 1·75. We then made three assumptions on the effects of such policies. First, we assumed the full effect of pro-natal policies will be to increase TFR by 0·2. Second, it will take 5 years after the policy is introduced for the full increase in TFR to occur, and TFR will rise linearly over that time span. Last, we assumed that both the policies and the increase in TFR by 0·2 will endure for the remainder of the century.

The pro-natal scenario is also incredibly optimistic. This kind of response simply hasn't happened in any country that's tried pro-natal policies as envisioned by the authors (my reference cases, just off the top of my head: Japan and France).

The optimism makes sense. They represent extreme cases, in order to contrast possible outcomes versus the reference case. This is good practice! It's just also funny.

Results

The Reference Case

I hate the embedded tables. They have the confidence interval in the same cell as the estimate. How very dare they, that's incredibly inconvenient for me personally.

The chart in Figure 1, however, I think speaks volumes:

It speaks so many volumes that I'm gonna go up and put it above the cut, brb. This chart shows the reference case; that is, it shows the fertility rate if the fertility trends of 1950-2021 continue into the future.

At the national level, estimates of TFR in 2021 ranged from 0·82 (95% UI 0·75–0·89) in South Korea to 6·99 (6·75–7·24) in Chad, with below-replacement levels of fertility (TFR <2·1) in 110 of 204 countries and territories (table 1, figures 2A, 3).

I think this range is neat and goes to show that while the trend is world-wide, it's still not even. Chadian women still give birth to about 7ish kids on average. That's more than 3x replacement, and more than 8.5x the average fertility of South Korea. South Korea is going to have different problems than Chad; Chad probably doesn't have to worry as much about their workforce being unable to sustain a large elderly population. (Don't look so cheerful about it. They've got lots of other stuff to worry about. 😬)

These charts are fascinating to look at to me. I think this really showcases just how dramatic the projected decline is. It's not just the Europe, it's not just wealthy post-industrialized countries, but everywhere. It's in Eswanti, it's in Indonesia, it's in Burkina Faso, it's in China. It really shows just how much Chad is an outlier (adn should still be counted, btw, just because it's an outlier doesn't mean we should discard it; it's dependent on study structure and you can't just throw out entire countries because they have high birth rates on a study of birth rates).

Our estimates indicate that there is approximately a 30-year gap between the time when TFR falls below 2·1 and when the natural rate of population increase turns negative. We forecast that 155 (76·0%) countries and territories will have fertility rates below replacement level in 2050; by 2100, we project this number will increase to 198 (97·1%), with 178 (87·3%) having a negative natural rate of increase (figure 3).

A 30-year gap sounds reasonable. That's about how long it takes for people to have/not have kids, and for their own parents to potentially die, in about equalish numbers (on a global scale, anyway). I do think this gap number is likely to increase as healthcare improves in places that are worse today and as fertility technology increases the age at which people can become pregnant, but 30 is a perfectly respectable number with actual statistical backing.

Alternative scenario fertility forecasts

This is the part I'm really excited about!!!

The first scenario, which assumes meeting the SDG education target by 2030, is estimated to result in global TFRs of 1·65 (95% UI 1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·56 (1·26–1·92) in 2100 (table 2). The second scenario, which assumes meeting the SDG contraceptive met need target by 2030, will produce global TFRs of 1·64 (1·39–1·89) in 2050 and 1·52 (1·21–1·87) in 2100. The third scenario, which incorporates pro-natal policy implementation, is forecast to yield global TFRs of 1·93 (1·69–2·19) in 2050 and 1·68 (1·36–2·04) in 2100. The combined scenario, in which all three other alternative scenarios are applied, is projected to result in a global TFR of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100.

So recall the reference scenario projections: 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100.

I find it interesting that all cases are so incredibly close to reference, with overlapping confidence intervals. Functionally, there's not a lot of difference between a TFR of 1.68 and 1.52. They're both still well below replacement. It's about the difference between Sweden (1.67) and Russia (1.51). Russia, you may have noticed, is waging war about it.*

*This is not a stated goal of the Russian Federation in the Ukraine War. This is me personally making an assertion that the shifting demographics of the Russian population, including the below-replacement birthrate beginning to put pressure on their lacking social safety networks, has contributed to the many complicated and interconnected reasons why the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, but please do not take me to be the final authority on the matter or interpret this statement as implying that demography of all things is the sole or primary reason for the war.

Discussion

The aforementioned changes in fertility over the coming century will have profound effects on populations, economies, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment, with a clear demographic divide between the impacts on many middle-to-high-income locations versus many low-income locations. For nearly all countries and territories outside of sub-Saharan Africa, sustained low fertility will produce a contracting population with fewer young people relative to older people before the end of the 21st century. These changes in age structure are likely to present considerable economic challenges caused by a growing dependency ratio of older to working-age population and a shrinking labour force. 42 Unless governments identify unforeseen innovations or funding sources that address the challenges of population ageing, this demographic shift will put increasing pressure on national health insurance, social security programmes, and health-care infrastructure. These same programmes will receive less funding as working-age, tax-paying populations decline, further exacerbating the problem.

This is why the Economist article talks about birthrates the way it does. It's not about white babies or whatever people in the notes are sarcastically ascribing to an article they haven't read. It's about the whole world. There are 150 countries outside of the Sub-Saharan Africa region, and 44 of the 46 countries within Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to feel the many or all of the same effects as well.

It's about the way social security nets are structured and how they're going to fail. It's about the way that elderly people are going to be treated by our societies. It's about me, and it's about you, and it's about making sure that there are enough humans to take care of the other humans that need taking care of.

If we don't increase global fertility rates above replacement, which it increasingly looks like we won't, we need other solutions. The fertility one is easy fuckin' pickings compared to a complete overhaul of society, and you saw how little difference it actually makes. So did the authors:

To date, one strategy to reverse declining fertility in low-fertility settings has been to implement pro-natal policies, such as child-related cash transfers and tax incentives, childcare subsidies, extended parental leave, re-employment rights, and other forms of support for parents to care and pay for their children.49, 50 Yet there are few data to show that such policies have led to strong, sustained rebounds in fertility, with empirical evidence suggesting an effect size of no more than 0·2 additional livebirths per female. [...] Moreover, although pro-natal policies primarily aim to increase births, they also offer additional benefits to society, including better quality of life, greater household gender equality (ie, more equal division of household labour),53 higher rates of female labour force participation,54 lower child-care costs,55 and better maternal health outcomes,56 depending on policy design and contextual factors. In the future, it will be beneficial to perform an in-depth analysis on varying impacts of pro-natal policies in selected countries that have a meaningful impact on population. [...] Importantly, low fertility rates and the modest effects that pro-natal policies might have on them should not be used to justify more draconian measures that limit reproductive rights, such as restricting access to modern contraceptives or abortions.

I just want to highlight that the study authors explicitly argue for certain pro-natal policies that increase quality of life and caution against pro-natal policies that limit rights. These people aren't heartless.

They also discuss at some length the implications of the changing distribution of live births, where by the end of the century most live births will take place in the poorest nations, which are also the ones that will be hardest-hit by climate change. These nations already face famines, military rule, civil wars, terrorism, and climate changed-caused severe heatwaves, droughts, and floods. They advise politicians to take this into account when making policy decisions but don't go into what policy decisions should be made, which is wise since they're demographers and not political scientists, but disappointed me, the political scientist reading the demography paper and hoping to find something to criticize.

My takeaway:

Incredibly interesting paper. As a non-demographer, I think it's very convincing and hope that it sparks a serious conversation about the paths we need to take forward, in our own countries and as a global community. I especially hope that it inspires us to take bold action to drastically change our systems of elder care, which are already being pushed to the limit and will simply break under pressure if fertility rates continue to fall.

#economics tag #demography #the lancet #this is my idea of a fun saturday night #fun with statistics

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foreverformula1 · 11 months ago

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F1 hard truth:

Lando Norris’ hardships in basic academics as shown in Grill the Grid isn’t solely the fault for training for F1 and dyslexia but also probably his lack of interest regarding educating himself and/or how he was academically educated growing up.

Because it’s interesting how this argument comes up only when it’s about Norris and sometimes some others too. But all drivers are pretty much average and Verstappen who is known for being the Top 1 at the moment, has a shocking pre F1 victory strike since Karting days (LITERALLY NEVER ARRIVING SECOND!) , countless stories about his hardships with his father coaching him since he was about 3 years old and making F1 all of his life, is often one of the best at these same games.

Fernando Alonso and Sabastian Vettel too.

The truth is that one might not me much intelligent and that’s about it, I completely understand it and struggle with it myself even when I was pushed academically more than my classmates.

But it becomes inexcusable when you don’t know where your country is. Something a 7 year old can do. He, like the others, travel the world as a job, even in their karting days.

We can sympathise with it and him, but don’t make excuses ,come up with theories or put the blame on motorsport. It shows that you are trying to sugarcoat it because you are aware that there’s no defence for it. He’s just … uneducated on basic geography but you don’t want to think about it because you like him. But you don’t have to “unfollow” him because of it. You can still like everything else about him while admitting that it can be better and surely without shaming him!

I believe that formal institutionalised academics are to ensure a certain level is reached. You actually can learn everything alone but of course, can’t or are not allowed to do some things without certification, for everyone’s safety. So it doesn’t make sense that just because someone didn’t complete high school, they are illiterate and completely stupid. As someone who comes from countries with actual illiterate people and is the daughter of one (who is now literate but you can see the struggle when one reached a certain age and the brain has harder times correcting some errors). So please stop theorizing that just because he or other drivers haven’t attended university or maybe have not finished high school, they are uneducated.

Edit: I saw the replies and rechecked my post, you are right and I modified the term. But I want to explain that I did not mean that he is actually stupid. I was just lacking of words and terms to explain what I meant. Now I replaced it with “Uneducated on basic geography” because I know very well he has other theological knowledge that would be hard to me. The “illiterate” part is misunderstood, I meant that as a way to indeed say that I believe the contrary: People can be literate without high school. I added it there because a pet peeve of mine is people actually being convinced that without a minimum of 3 years of university makes you illiterate all of a sudden. It’s a silly mentality to me, and it’s always an ick when a “fan” of him uses this “excuse”. I wanted to be understood but I messed up and I am sorry, but I hope you people understand what I meant in general with the post. I did not make it to shade him or point it out unlike many people in various social medias and comments under these videos;

I made this post to tell people who overanalyze and over-excuse him to just let it be. That’s it. It’s backhanded to put so much energy into this and prove otherwise when it’s plain simple (and other factors could play a role in it too, I know). But some people want to gaslight themselves into thinking that a celebrity of their liking is not as amazing(according to their personal standards and values) as they wish they were. People do this with other celebrities too, pushing the narrative that one is “secretly intentionally chaotic” or the contrary, just an example. People need to accept their celebrities without the guilt for one thing that turns them off. Or at least respect it and not force said narrative. People will gaslight themselves into changing the smallest details about celebrities to “vibe” better with them. Especially females (or maybe I notice it more with them because I am also one?), for example they will make hundreds of posts to show that they appreciate the female star’s natural voice when in reality it’s just simply at its’ deepest. I think it’s tied with the “not like the other girls” preference. Because they act like they have super high pitched voices when they simply are…ladies with an average feminine voice+feminine (sometimes hyper) style and persona. And all feminine things are now being called “cutesy” and childlike. When sometimes they are simply feminine /+and pretty. Because many times they are not even obnoxious at it. You’d think that they are talking about an anime girl voice, but it’s just a lady. They just don’t vibe with her voice and will gaslight themselves that she’s pushing it , ‘but that’s okay to them’.

#f1 #formula one #formula 1 #mine #lando norris #mclaren formula 1

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justinspoliticalcorner · 9 months ago

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Sarah Jones and Jason Easley at PoliticusUSA's The Daily Substack:

The Trump and Mike Johnson press conference at Mar-a-Lago barely lasted 20 minutes, and what the event might be remembered for isn’t Trump’s various lies about abortion, immigration, or even the value of Mar-a-Lago. Something Mike Johnson said in just a few minutes signaled how Trump plans to handle a potential 2024 election loss.

Johnson said: [You need to understand something, since the 1993 National Voter Registration Act, the motor voter law, allows people to sign up to vote. If an individual averts or states they are a citizen, they don't have to prove it, they can register that person to vote in a federal election. States are prohibited from asking someone to prove that they are a citizen. The federal voter registration form has a check box. If you do that, you're good. That is a serious problem. And what we are going to do is, house Republicans are introducing a bill that will require proof of citizenship to vote. It seems like common sense. All of us would agree we want U.S. Citizens to vote in U.S. Elections. But there are some Democrats who don't want to do that. One of their reasons for this open board that everyone asked, why would they do this? Why the violence? They want to turn these people into voters. Right now, the administration is encouraging illegals to go to the local welfare office to sign up for benefits. When you go to the welfare office they ask you if you would like to register to vote. Many people, we think are going to do that. If the numbers are so high, so many millions of illegals in the country, one out of a hundred, they would cast thousands of votes, that could turn an election. This could impact congressional elections in the country. It could affect the presidential election.] [...]

Johnson and Trump Are Going To Claim That Illegal Immigrants Stole The Election For Biden

Johnson was the architect of the House scheme to block the certification of the 2020 election. He likely won’t be the Speaker of the House when the next election is certified, but what he is doing is creating a path for Trump to challenge the 2024 results in every swing state that he loses. Trump will claim that any swing state that uses motor voter registration that he lost was full of illegal votes for Biden. Trump will demand that the election not be certified, and that all of the swing states that Biden won be thrown out. Johnson knows that a national voter ID law will make it much more difficult for some Democratic leaners to vote, and that the bill that he and Trump are proposing is dead in the water, so the tactic will be to challenge every state that Biden won that is considered a swing state by claiming that illegal voters voted for Biden.

On Friday, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and 2024 GOP nominee Donald Trump trafficked in the lie motor voter registration caused "illegal votes" for President Joe Biden to be tallied in a bid to cause 2020 2.0 in which Trump lied about the election results to falsely declare himself the victor.

#Donald Trump #Mike Johnson #Election Denialism #2024 Presidential Election #2024 Elections #National Voter Registration Act #Noncitizen Voting #Voter ID

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visit-new-york · 3 months ago

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This Skyscraper is New York Blue

The form of this building is unconventional. While it features a traditional setback at the base of the office section, the design departs from convention with three volumes that recess at loggias instead of stepping back. This approach, though rare, has some precedents—One Madison in New York, the Silberturm in Frankfurt, and Calatrava's Turning Torso in Malmö offer similar gestures. The result is a visually striking and highly functional design that includes large decks for fresh air, with additional balconies on alternating floors to ensure outdoor access is easy.

As FXCollaborative’s Gustavo Rodriguez explains, the goal was to "break down the massing so it becomes more digestible." They aimed for a design that felt personal, giving tenants the ability to say, "That’s my floor" or "I’m two floors above that," fostering a sense of identity and ownership within the larger structure.

By 2023 standards, the building has remarkably little glass—just 33% of the facade. The rest is brick, carefully patterned and paired with pre-cast concrete spandrel panels. Inspired by the decorative brick piers of Ralph Walker’s designs, the facade isn't flat; it features a pleated brick pattern designed to interact dynamically with light. Avoiding disruptions at the building's corners posed a challenge, so the team created custom hand-pressed chamfered bricks to ensure a seamless look. This attention to detail extended even to the choice of brick shade, with Rodriguez noting, "We needed a New York blue; it couldn’t be a Texas blue or a Mexico blue."

The design also incorporates traditional methods, wrapping the building in elegant sunshades. These sunshades, reminiscent of divided-light industrial windows, maintain the visual integrity of the 16-to-18-foot-high windows while only attaching to mullions between panels. This approach allowed the use of low-reflectivity glass, which significantly boosted the building's energy efficiency.

Thanks to these thoughtful design elements, FXCollaborative’s office in One Willoughby earned the first LEED Platinum v4 Interior Design and Construction certification in New York City and the highest-scoring LEED v4 Commercial Interior Design and Construction rating in the country.

FXCollaborative Brings it All Together

FXCollaborative embraced an unconventional approach for One Willoughby, adding an unusually high number of exterior columns—spaced every 15 feet instead of the typical 30. This decision allowed for fully unobstructed, loft-like floors spanning 140 by 60 feet, creating expansive open spaces without sacrificing structural integrity.

The design also includes internal open staircases that connect the firm's three floors, a feature that can be replicated on other levels throughout the building. The floorplates, while open, are modest in size. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the firm questioned the value of massive floorplates. Gustavo Rodriguez notes, “A lot of people realize they don’t need 300 desks; they need 150. They’d rather have a smaller floor plate where they can see each other than one that wraps around a huge core, where visibility is limited.”

Flexibility was a key consideration throughout the design. Larger tenants can connect office floors with staircases, while smaller tenants can easily subdivide spaces. Now, about 60 percent of the building is leased. Before the pandemic, only FXCollaborative and a public school had committed, but the building has since attracted tenants like the Architectural Research Office, the Ms. Foundation for Women, Propel, and Gemic. Additionally, a loggia-level amenity floor provides an extra incentive for potential tenants, as highlighted by Adrian Madlener in Metropolis.

Rodriguez describes the building as a culmination of FXCollaborative’s recent work across various projects, saying, “This is the first time we were able to bring some of our areas of exploration into one building. It was a chance to synthesize all of our ideas.”

The only challenge? “The biggest trouble,” Rodriguez quips, “is having 120 architects as your clients.”

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icvcertificateconsultants · 1 day ago

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forthrigthconsultancy · 1 year ago

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#in country value certificate #in country value certificate in dubai #forthrightconsultancy

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gale-gentlepenguin · 2 years ago

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Adulting 101: How Jobs work

I feel like there is a LOT of terrible advice on the internet about getting a job, working a job, and leaving a job. So I am going to give some real advice that will help you out in the long run.

Welcome to Adulting 101

So for this I will be discussing the Core tenants

Getting a Job

Working the Job

Leaving the Job

and

The Farewell

(Note this is mainly for work in the Corporate sector but I can assure that applicable information can be applied to other Job areas.)

Getting a job

So you are fresh out of college, and now you realize those student loans arent gonna be paid by the government after all. So what are you going to do?

The answer is get a Job.

But how are you going to get one?

1. Connections:

-If you havent already, start with creating a Linkedin account and try to connect with every person you have ever met, especially if you are going into the field of work with the individuals.

After that, try searching LinkedIn for every person that is in a high position in the field you want to start your career. Most won’t respond, but some will and that is good for you.

Most people in the corporate world that get interviews for their first job with good companies are usually through connections. Leverage family, friends, old employment, old internships, etc.

-I also recommend staying in touch with your Alma mater, professors are usually people with connections and if they like you can help pull some strings. But if not, the school usually will have some sort of program that will help you get your first job. Though not all colleges have it, but its best to check.

-Always avoid sales jobs. Now some sales jobs are fine and legit, but its usually gonna end with the company taking the list of people you know and selling to them before tossing you aside. It burns your friends and Family’s good will. Thats usually the reason why at least once in your life you will have someone from high school reaching out to you about ‘A product or service’.

-Nurture the network. You want people to like you enough to recommend you for jobs, especially this early on. Your experience is garbage and you have no negotiating power. Unless you are from an Ivy league school and have a 4.0. You have no value in the eyes of the company alone. So your best bet is to lean on people you know.

2. Resume

-For the love of crap, work on your resume. Doesnt matter how good your connections are, if you made your resume out of crayon you are screwed. Take time to format it, look up some how to guides, ask some people you know how they worked their resume. It is not fun, but it is important. Resumes are what get people in the door in a lot of cases. The best resumes on online applications are filtered based on how close they fit the job description.

-Make sure to keep that resume updated and easy to edit so you can alter it to match a job description better. This is a trick to help improve the odds of selection.

-Same thing but with Linkedin, there are recruiters on Linkedin and other sites that search for canidates. Most of them are sales jobs, but some arent and you can leverage them if possible

-Since this is on Tumblr, I’m going to tell you this upfront, don’t put your pronouns in your resume. I was talking with a recruiter and that’s a thing they use to filter out so most online applications won’t see it. Mainly cause it’s seen as Filler and stuff like this will be addressed later.

3. Certifications and internships

-When you are new in the workforce, you will need ANYTHING to differentiate you from the crowd, having a certification in whatever is needed in your field is always a bonus. Granted these cost cash to get into, so this is more of a last resort when you are looking for your first job.

-Internships after college are often seen as a bit tough to manage since they usually dont pay as much as a real job (depending on the state or country, at all), but if one is unable to get a job, this is a ticket to building a network.

4. The Interview

-All of that work from the previous 3 subjects have led you to this moment, your interview. Now this is a make or break it moment and it is important to understand the following:

*Is this a multiround interview? (Will there be more than one?)

*Who am I interviewing with (The interviewer, the company, and for what job)

*What is the purpose of the interview? (Is this a formality? A job description?)

-Now it is crucial to know your resume inside and out. You need to speak to what you know. So be sure to know it well.

-Always answer in a way that puts you in a more positive light. But dont try the “My greatest weakness is working too hard” they can smell that bulls*** a mile away. If you had to describe a negative, make it seem like you are working to fix it. This demonstrates you can look at yourself objectively and makes it seem like you are more of a genuine person. My go too response is “I have a habit of hyper focusing on a task until it is complete, but I have been working on focusing on what has the highest priority.”

-At the end of the interview, make sure to have questions prepared to ask the interviewer, and dont ask about salary. (Salary is asked after the job is offered, and usually you will usually hear about the salary range before going in, or the official number AFTER they give the offer). My go to question is asking “What are three traits someone would need to have to thrive in this position?” But do try and think of your own

-Dont be nervous, remember that this will likely not be the only interview you will have, especially with how desperate people are to get workers. So you will get a few. Just do your best, you got this.

_______________________________________________________________________

Working the Job

You did it, all that hardwork and dedication had paid off, you got your first job.

Or maybe this is your second job. But most importantly, its work with a salary. The most tedious part is over, next is where the real work begins.

1. Adjusting to work

This period of time will you learning all you can about your job, this is the 30-60-90. AKA, the Trial period.

Show up a bit early and leave a bit later (unless your commute is over an hour. Then you just try to be as close to on time as possible.)

Your first 30 days is you finding out where everything is, how it works, who you interact with to get work done, and find the bathroom. This is where the expectations for you as an employee are at their most lenient. Dont take this as a rest opportunity, You are meant to learn as much as possible about how to do your job. (also connect with all the people on your team on Linkedin)

The next 30 days are your real test. Likely will be given your first real assignment if it wasnt given already. This is where you need to knock it out of the park. Crush that first assignment. Show everyone you are a pleasure to work with, Be compassionate yet driven. This is the ‘Prove yourself phase’

The last 30 days is the “Dealmaker” here is where you get to show your impact on the company. Your work must be consistent and must be solid. You can be allowed some error, but dont focus too much on it. This is where you show what you learned and are a part of the company. After you make it past this stage, you are likely to not have to worry about being fired. That doesnt mean your safe. It just means you are officially a part of the company.

-Now from here on out this is your chance to grow in however you want. Do you have ideas that you think would make things better? Give them a go, try discussing them with your boss, see what he/she thinks of them. You think there is a sector of the company you would work better in, use this position as an opportunity to grow closer and maybe transfer. Just be sure to keep your work consistent

2. Time to excel

So this is where you start career building. You want to make the big money. You want to be strong and independent with the fat stacks? You gotta work bitch.

You gotta take initiative, when there is an opportunity to shine to the higher ups, take it. Not every opportunity will be given. But sometimes there are ones that are gift wrapped.

Do NOT over extend yourself.

This is important, yes you want to stand out, but over extending yourself just to impress can cause your original work to suffer. You need to know your limits. And be willing to ask for help when needed.

Don’t talk smack about your boss, or other coworkers.

In the game of office politics, you never want to give someone an opportunity to make you look bad. Be respectful, and keep any complaints or issues you have with someone objective.

Take responsibility. Don’t try and blame others when something fails. Own up to it and ask for ways to improve. That shows character and in the game of career building, that’s a solid way to show you are capable and bold.

____________________________________________

Leaving a job

So you find yourself working at this job and you realize. I hate it here. Now the first instinct is to quit and figure it out later. Or the term “Quiet Quitting” which is doing the bare minimum required and ride it out. Let me correct this by showing you what to do.

Figure out the Why.

Why do you hate your job now? It’s actually the simplest step. Usually boiling down to the following

1. My boss sucks.

Most employees end up quitting their jobs because of their boss. Either they are critical, take credit for your work, blame you for their mistakes, make you work late. Preventing you from taking vacation. Or insert specific reason here.

If the boss is the only reason you hate the job, then this is where you can start by requesting transfers to other areas of the company. Make an effort to find someone you wouldn’t mind working under, or find a way to show that your boss is violating your rights and agreements. If you can get a recording or emails to show to HR, than you can find ways of dealing with the horrible boss. Though if all else fails, then it’s time to consider leaving.

2. You need higher pay

If your company doesn’t give pay raises, and you find yourself not progressing a more favorable direction, then it’s time to discuss with your boss your concerns. Now if your boss is reasonable and not like a boss from reason 1, they will likely take into account the work you do and try to get you the raise.

But that’s only if you are working hard. Demanding more money but not doing anything more than what the job is asking won’t net you a pay raise unless you are exceeding expectations. In truth most companies would like to not lose workers, so voicing a concern would be a good way to get more cash.

Though if you are working hard and going above and beyond yet still not getting the money you deserve. It’s time to search for a place that will. Don’t quit yet, find the new job first and than leave.

It’s common curtesy to let the company know with a two week notice. That’s mainly so you don’t entirely burn connections. If you don’t care about the company, just quit.

Side note, and THIS IS CRUCIAL

If your company hears you are leaving and tries to match it. DONT take it. It’s a ploy. They will look for your replacement as soon as you accept the deal. They know you are finicky and looking. If you accepted a job offer, DONT BACK OUT.

3. This is not the career I want

You realize that this just isn’t where you want to be for the next couple of years. That’s fine. In fact, good on you for recognizing that you aren’t content with your work. But that begs the question, what Do you want.

At this time, stay working while you do research. No need to quit if you don’t know what it is you want. Maybe you want to be focused on different things but still in the same company. Transfers are more common and it’s easier to move and employee than lose one. So if you like where you work but not what you do, maybe see what other options there are in house before leaving.

But if you really want to go after something then find yourself peeping for that path. And when you are ready to go, then quit. Be polite and cordial. It wasn’t them it’s you. A two week notice would be the polite thing in this case.

The Farewell

Things aren’t working out with your current job and you’ve decided it’s time to leave. Ensure the following.

1. You have another opportunity lined up

2. You connected with everyone worth while

3. You have your letter/email of resignation ready to go

Now if your opportunity has a time before it starts. Great time for quiet quitting. You are basically out the door, you can take it easy. So enjoy these last moments before you leave and get ready for the next step in life.

____________________________________________

Thank you for reading my advice column on how to properly Navigate work.

And if things work out, remember what you read.

Life may not always perfectly line up, but there is a right way of approaching it.

Best of luck

(Note: This does not guarantee that all will go according to plan but it is the building blocks of what Is important)

#adulting 101 #work #gale’s advice #I work a 9-5 #so I know

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pareidoliaonthemove · 1 year ago

Text

Reason 102 to Wear Your Helmet

You would think an aquanaut would know the value of keeping their helmet on.

Warning: Rat. One rat. One very large rat.

It was hot.

No, scratch that. It was a furnace. And Gordon was stuck in the middle of it.

Australian summers had gotten steadily hotter, and bushfires had gotten larger and more frequent, all due to global warming.

After (too many) firestorms and lives lost, authorities had gotten better at forestry maintenance, a large part of which was backburning operations. Unfortunately, no matter the amount of planning, care and precautions, Mother Nature could, would, and did exert her will over humankind.

What had started out as a carefully executed hazard reduction burn had been blindsided by high winds and unseasonably hot temperatures. The local authorities and volunteer fire services had fought the blaze with everything they had, but the fire had gotten out of the control and when it threatened an unprepared town, International Rescue had been summoned and launched.

They had started with evacuating the town ahead of the inferno, and then, as it threatened to turn on a second unwitting town, the focus had shifted to fighting the fire itself.

Scott and Gordon had worked firepods on the flanks, while Alan was granted rare operational flight time on Thunderbird Two – the astronaut had yet to earn his groundfire qualifications, age apparently being a bigger barrier to firefighting than to space certification, while Virgil and his fire exosuit stood with the locals and challenged the beast head on.

It had been a hard fight, in tough conditions, but eventually the fire was contained and tamed to the point where the locals had felt confident in finishing up operations unassisted.

And not a moment too soon, from International Rescue’s point of view. They had been on the ground for over twenty-four hours, with few opportunities for rest periods, and less to cycle their equipment through a cool down. Brain’s cahelium alloy was a wonder, but even it had its limits. Thunderbird Two, spending much of her time hovering above the fire front, blasting it with both sonic suppressors and water bombing runs, had soaked up a lot of heat, and now the flying behemoth needed time to cool down and dissipate some of the stored thermal energy in her hull before she cooked her own electronics.

It was easier said than done when the ambient atmospheric temperature was creeping dangerously towards the 50deg Celsius mark.

John had found safe location for the transporter to land, without risking starting off a new fire, and the pods had hared off cross country to meet her, Virgil clinging tiredly to the side of Scott’s pod with his exosuit.

Gordon was thrilled to be able to extract himself from his pod, the opportunity to stretch out, and get some blood flow back in his legs, temporarily distracting him from the other issues.

He and Scott had both been forced to resort to their full uniform rig inside the pods, sealing themselves away behind their helmets as the pod’s air filtration and temperature regulation had started to fail from the onslaught. Sealing themselves behind the ‘double-bubble’ as John had termed it, had allowed them more time on the ground, but it did have its drawbacks.

Gordon was – first, foremost, and last – an aquanaut. It was his primary role in International Rescue, and all his personal equipment was geared towards that particular role, and the deep sea environment that was his element. Including his uniform. Especially his uniform.

The deep sea was cold. Very cold.

And fire was not.

Gordon Tracy was a fish, not just out of water, but in the frying pan.

He was, he decided, going to have to speak to Brains about a uniform variant for high temperature work. Like all the IR unforms, his was intended to be used in all temperature conditions – it was even space-rated – but, out of necessity, it was more efficient at maintaining a temperature in deep cold water, an environment that Gordon was most decidedly not currently inhabiting.

Blood flow adequately restored, he surveyed his new surrounds.

John had directed them to a grain storage facility, twenty kilometres as the Thunderbird flies on the western side of the firefront. Less than optimal growing conditions had produced a poor harvest, and the blue-tarped bunkers were clustered on one side of the facility, leaving plenty of open bare ground for Thunderbird Two to settle on her extended struts between the concrete walls of the empty bunkers. Alan had quickly powered her down, and exited via the cockpit floor elevator to join Scott and Virgil near a star-struck cluster of the site’s employees.

Gordon looked around. There was a train parked in a siding, a discharge chute from overhead garner bins still pointing into an open wagon, loading operations abandoned when the company had granted International Rescue permission to use it as a temporary parking facility, and Gordon sought temporary refuge in the scant shadow of the wagons.

It wasn’t just the pods and Thunderbird that was worked to straining point in the heat. Gordon’s uniform wasn’t up to the sustained task, and with his helmet still clamped firmly over his head, he felt like he was trapped in his own personal sauna. Gordon looked around, the wind had died down, so there was no risk of smoke inhalation if he breathed unfiltered air. There were signs on the infrastructure surrounding him warning him that the loading facility was a hard hat area, but all operations had ceased, and there was definitely no one in the gantry above him.

Gordon risked it, pulling off his helmet, and feeling a slight breeze that felt like a slice of heaven after the stifling confines of his uniform helmet.

A youngish man in a sweat soaked hi-vis shirt, shorts and safety boots unzipped at the sides, a hardhat sliding over his skull as he walked, was hurrying up to him, clutching a large bottle of what looked like chilled water. He looked horrified as Gordon removed his helmet. “Sir, please, don’t …”

Something heavy landed on Gordon’s skull, small sharp blades seemed to rake the top of his head, before the whatever-it-was leapt off him, rocking his head back slightly with the force of its propulsion, passing briefly in front of his face to land on the ground and disappear under the train wagons. Gordon had a brief glimpse of long whiskers, dirty yellow fur, and a long naked pink tail before the monstrosity disappeared.

Gordon stared at the ground where he had last seen the creature. “Wh-what …?”

“Sir, are you all right? How’s your neck?” The young man had reached Gordon, forcing the bottle into his hands, before reaching up to gingerly touch the side of Gordon’s neck.

His hands were ice cold, and Gordon started a little. “Shit, sorry! Did that hurt?” The man snatched his hand away and grabbed at a little handheld radio clipped to his belt, speaking before Gordon could reply. “Boss. Over at the train spout. IR guy took his helmet off…”

An expletive crackled back over the radio, as an older man split away from the gaggle surrounding his brothers, who were quicky in pursuit, the remainder of the onlookers, trailing after them like curious ducklings.

The ‘boss’ skidded to a halt in front of Gordon. “Are you alright?” He turned to his underling before Gordon had a chance to answers. “Is he alright? What happened?” He glanced up at the wagon. “Shit, did Canola …?”

Virgil and Scott arrived, Virgil had a medscanner out, and was passing over Gordon, even as he was sliding to a stop, and Scott started snapping out questions, demanding to know what had happened.

“Uhh, he had an encounter with … local wildlife?” the young man offered reluctantly, as Virgil frowned at the medscanner results.

“No injuries flagged, except some cuts on the top of his skull …” IR’s medic reported.

Scott frowned, before turning to face the site employees. “Local wildlife?” he asked.

The boss nodded, and gestured to the hardhat signs. “Yeah. It’s a known hazard, but we can’t trap the damn thing …”

“What was it?” Gordon asked, as Virgil tried standing on tiptoe to examine the top of his skull. “Because it looked a lot like …” he trailed off, and shuddered.

There was a lot of shuffling of feet. “Um, what would you like it to be?” the young man asked, sheepishly.

Gordon glared. “I can only think of two things have long pink furless tails, and it was too freaking big for either of them.”

“It could be a possum, if you want it to be?” A young woman asked. “You know, a possum with, um, fashion opinions?”

Scott sighed, and turned to the site boss. “You said ‘Canola’. Canola is a grain, how could canola cause multiple lacerations on to the top of his head?”

The site manager flushed. “Um, we call it ‘Canola’, ‘cause we always see it over by the canola bunkers, and it’s about the same colour as the pulp when its crushed.”

“Stinks like canola, too,” offered up a voice from the cluster of employees standing back watching the show.

Scott stared. “What exactly are we talking about?” he asked, mystified.

“Um, well, it’s a … uh, rat?” The site manager seemed embarrassed.

Alan stared. “A rat?”

“A really big rat?” offered another voice. All the site employees nodded, embarrassedly, as if understanding exactly how bizarre the explanation was.

Another man in long trousers was bending down and peering under the wagons with a torch. “Ah, here he is, if you want to see him for yourself.”

The four Tracy’s moved forward, Virgil keeping a firm hold on Gordons’ arm, and as one, they crouched down to look under the wagon.

Scott and Alan recoiled, while Virgil, eyes wide, let go of Gordon’s arm to pull out a small camera from his baldric, and capturing a few images, before setting it to record a short video. Gordon glared at it, reaching for a nearby chunk of rock.

“Yeah, I wouldn’t do that,” the man beside him said, bemused. “There used to be cats all over this place – easy hunting, plenty of mice, y’know? Canola there saw ‘em off. He fights nasty.”

Gordon recoiled, and looked back at the rat clinging to the metal rigging under the wagon. Now he had a good look, from nose to tail, the beast was easily two foot long. Gordon had seen fully grown dogs smaller than Canola, never mind cats.

Gordon’s mind flashed back to the old movie Lady and the Tramp, suddenly the rat attacking the baby didn’t seem so farfetched.

Gordon started away, was the rat suddenly noticed them, whipped up to clamber along the wagon, clinging to the metal undersides, before leaping off and scampering away towards the blue-tarped ridges on the far side of the train.

“Wow!” Virgil’s eyes were huge. “I’ve never seen a rat so big, I mean you hear about giant New York Sewer Rats, but …” he shook his head.

Gordon reached up to scratch his head, wincing at the pain it created, and pulling a way bloody fingertips. “Damn!”

Virgil frowned, and glanced worriedly at Thunderbird Two, still emitting a thick heat haze. He turned to the site boss. “Um, we can’t access our medical facilities until my ‘Bird cools down some. Do you have a first aid kit we can use?”

The man nodded vigorously. “Sure thing!” Before his eyes went wide. “Um, we kinda need to …”

Scott sighed. “You need to create an incident report.” His head dropped down. “For an on-site injury to an International Rescue employee.” He stared at the signage, then glared at Gordon’s helmet, still hanging forgotten in his left hand. “Because he removed his helmet in signposted hardhat area.”

The man gulped. “Nothing like that! Work was suspended, he should have been right to remove it. It was just … a local knowledge thing …” He pointed eagerly to a transportable building standing on short cinderblock piers, with an ungodly number of air conditioning units, hanging off the sides. “First aid kit’s here, and you can wait as long as you want for your equipment to cool down. Feel free to use the kitchen facilities, and we’re just about to put in our food order for delivery, so you’re welcome to order whatever you want.”

His spiel went on, as he led the way, tired IR operatives, and awed employees trailing in his wake.

Gordon sighed. It was going to be a long wait to head home.

He hoped it was an equally long wait before they had to launch again.

John’s hologram popped up in place of their movie, with no warning. “Scott, I’ve had a very odd incident report forwarded to me from that Grain Receival site you parked up at in Australia.” He frowned. “Gordon apparently sustained an injury requiring first aid treatment from,” he glanced at a display near the camera, reading, “‘canola landing on his head’? Is that correct?”

Alan sniggered from the safety of his perch in his launch seat. “Yup. 100% correct.”

John’s frown intensified. “Canola is an oil producing seed. It is approximately the size of a mustard grain. How did canola cause lacerations?”

Virgil fiddled with the tablet he had abandoned, shooting a file into orbit. “Because this is Canola.”

They watched as John watched the video recording, an expression of horror growing on his face. “Is that … Is that a rat?”

Gordon smirked. “It could be a possum with fashion opinions, if that makes it better for you.”

John stared in horror. “Eos?”

“Yes, John?”

“Please add, ‘Giant Rats’ to my list of reasons why I stay in space.”

“Of course.” A pause. “You now have three-hundred and seventy-five official reasons why you prefer to live in space.”

The earthbound brothers stared, “You have a list?” Alan blurted.

“Am I on it?” Gordon demanded.

“Oh yes,” Eos responded brightly. “You’re reason number one.”

John cut the connection.

Notes:

I had to listen to a 20 minute rant from one of our little newbie assistant drivers complaining about having to wear a hardhat at some of our loading sites, and how ineffective they would be if anything actually fell on them from one of the silos (true, a bog standard plastic hardhat is gonna do very little if a silo lets go), and I was reminded of my encounter with an abnormally large rat that decided I would make a suitable step on their descent from the top of a wagon, way back when I was a little baby train driver.

Luckily I was wearing my hard hat; that site had the hardhat rule because of Canola the Rat (so named because he lived near the bunkers storing canola, which is apparently steroids for rodents. He was enormous, and beat up on the cats that used to live on-site for the easy mice hunting to the point they up and moved away), who had caused some nasty lacerations requiring stitches when he pulled the same manoeuvre on people who didn’t wear hardhats.

Took a while to live down. The loading site reported it to my company as a ‘near miss’, and it went out on the monthly safety briefing. Nationwide. No names were mentioned in the briefing, but it didn’t take long for people to figure out who it was locally, and there was a lot of comments about me being afraid of mice.

Until one of the old hands had an encounter with Canola.

The standard disclaimers, I do not own Thunderbirds, either the Original Series, the Movies (both Supermarionation and Live Action), or the Thunderbirds Are Go Series. (Although I do own copies on DVD.)

I do not do this for money, but for my own (in)sanity and entertainment.

#thunderbirds are go #fanfic #my fanfiction #gordon tracy #rat #terrifyingly large rat

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