#i think the results here could be very predictable OR very surprising. no in-between

[aerinfrankellove]

2024-25 Season Prediction Survey Results

Read below or read a better formatted version here

The second PWHL season looms heavy on the horizon, and with preseason camps underway, the prospect of change, a new season with new storylines and new team names and logos and new players, haunts us all. We may not all be sports experts, but after watching the first season for months and eagerly awaiting the second, we all have our own ideas of how season two might go. Whether they’re logical ideas or not will be seen upon the future, but I, lover of data and spreadsheets, decided to gather up all your opinions and predictions of how season two will go, from the biggest honor (The Walter Cup) to random questions regarding trades and penalty minutes

Team Predictions -

This was the easy part of the form. Minimal prior knowledge, you didn’t even need to know the team names because I put them all in as multiple choice questions. Hypothetically everyone could have just picked randomly and I wouldn’t be any the wiser. That being said, some interesting trends emerged from you folks, some predictable and some less so.

Walter Cup Winners: Boston Fleet or Montreal Victoire (35.3%)

This was probably one of the closest races beneath the team with only about a single vote difference between Boston winning it all and Montreal winning it all at any one time. As an entirely unbiased Boston fan and casual Montreal enjoyer, I think this prediction is definitely founded in something. Montreal and Boston project to be two of the stronger teams, but I also think I’m biased if only because of how many Montreal and Boston fans I see in comparison to other teams. With all that being said, I’d be disappointed but not surprised if some other less represented team (Seriously does no one believe New York can win? Even Ottawa got a single vote and y’all really hated Ottawa) wins it going away after a hot season. But as my father always says, that’s why we play the game and this game/series in particular is quite a far ways away.

Walter Cup Runner Ups: Montreal Victoire (35.3%)

Honestly, I was expecting pretty similar results for this question as the question above, after all if the general consensus is that one of those two teams will win the cup, then one of them would have to lose it, right? Well Montreal was right up there, but unexpectedly Toronto came in second with 24% of people having enough faith in Toronto getting to the finals and then very little faith in them actually winning it, girlfailures that they are. Montreal tied with them to get second in the cup, followed by Boston (please god don’t let it come to that I don’t think my heart could take two years in a row) and then the mish mash of the Sirens, Frost, and Charge. 

First in the standings: Toronto Sceptres (32.4%)

So Montreal was leading this right up until I was actually writing and then I had to completely change my paragraph mid writing which was so much fun and definitely not irritating at all, but Toronto overtook Montreal for first, aiming for that repeat first in the standings and dare I be speaking sacrilege against the Victoire (who I do like more than the Sceptres) I honestly think they have a better chance. Like a 45% chance vs. a 40% chance. Boston carried up third place in voting and as much as I love the Fleet I think lots of things would have to go right for that to happen (another stunning season by Frankel, more consistent offense, an actual power play, so on and so forth). 

Additionally, as much as I hate to say it, I think we’re seriously underselling Minnesota, just because they made some inadvisable choices during the off season doesn’t mean they still aren’t largely the team who won the Walter cup and has theoretically gotten better during the offseason. Then again, I’d be as happy as anyone to see them crash and burn a little bit so it’s all speculatory. New York got a grand total of two votes but I’m secretly rooting for them to surprise some people. Ottawa got none, but we can cover that in the next section.

Last in the standings: Ottawa Charge (52.9%)

Guys. Guys, really? Ottawa fans, I am begging you, come represent your team because this is embarrassing. Like I don’t know much about what Ottawa’s been up to other than rebuilding the Czech National Team (shout out to Carla Macleod I am manifesting you knowing what you are doing). Like they weren’t bad last year, they were second in goals for, and they did lose a bit but they had tons of overtime losses which means they were in the games. Hell, they were very nearly in the playoffs, they were in the same category as Minnesota and Boston, the two finalist teams! Apparently my unpopular opinion is that Ottawa isn’t going to suck (They hopefully have two solid goalies now so Masch won’t be overworked, they signed some good players, I feel like I’m going crazy.) Otherwise, there’s not much notable in this section other than some doubt about the Sirens and the Frost (lord let it be the Frost /j) but shoutout to the one person truly going against the grain and saying that Montreal is gonna get dead last, I applaud your bravery.

The Four Playoff Teams:

This question was a little less straightforward so we’re gonna split it into three sections. The (Predicted) Shoe-ins, The Contenders, and Ottawa.

The (Predicted) Shoe-ins - 

The Sceptres, the Victoire, and the Fleet all had about 30 votes with nearly 90% of respondents selecting them each as one of the potential playoff teams. This fits pretty well with the previous votes of the Walter Cup winners and runner ups, so I wasn’t too surprised at any of these. All of these teams should have a decent shot at the playoffs and my own mostly unfounded misgivings about the Sceptres aside, this is all pretty reasonable and I largely think there’s a good chance that this is how it goes..

The Contenders - 

The Frost and the Sirens were pretty evenly matched, about half of y’all voted that they’d be one of four playoff teams and I generally agree that they both have a pretty good shot at the playoffs so there isn’t much to talk about here. I’d personally be more excited for the Sirens to make a run at the playoffs, I think they have a chance to be good after last season and hopefully put some things together over the summer, but we shall see.

Ottawa - 

You know I already wrote a whole ramble about this and since then Ottawa beat Boston 6-1 in the preseason and I think they heard how little faith you guys had in them and decided to take it out on my team. That’s all I’m gonna say on that.

The Trade Predictions:

These answers were definitely a bit less clear cut due to the nature of the question, after all it’s a lot easier to say who you think will be good than try and get into the head of GMs and coaches, but a few trends emerged nonetheless. The Frost, the Sirens, and the Charge all got 19 or 20 apiece and I think it makes a bit of sense. After all the Sirens and the Charge seemingly stand the most to gain through trade having missed the playoffs, and from later responses those who voted Minnesota were manifesting a Britta Curl trade which I’ll refrain from judging at the moment. I will say I’m a bit surprised that less people voted for Boston, after all unless my memory is entirely wrong they had the most trades over the course of last season and seem to hold very few qualms about it.

0.500+ Winning Percentage: Montreal Victoire (84.8%)

Guys, I respect this take, I’m 90% sure this was one of my votes for an above .500 team as well, but may I speak a little bit of heresy against the Victoire? Like they’re gonna be good, I don’t have doubt in that, but I don’t know if they’re gonna be that decisively good. They’re a bit injured which could lead to a rocky start and do we all still remember how much they relied on those top few players especially in the playoffs? I’m pretty sure in the Boston series their fourth line may have gotten less than ten minutes overall which I’m not an expert on hockey but isn’t a whole thing about balancing ice time and having solid lines all the way through so your stars aren’t having absurdly long nights (shout out to Erin Ambrose you deserve a gun)?

Otherwise this follows the general trends of the playoffs with a bit more faith in the Frost than in the Sirens, a reasonable amount for the Fleet and Sceptres, and absolutely none in Ottawa which I think we’ll all come to regret but I’ve said my piece about that already so I won’t beat a dead horse into the ground.

Higher Goals For than Goals Against: Toronto Sceptres (68.8%)

This risks getting into actual smart people hockey stuff that I am by no means an expert in, so I won’t spend too long other than to just share the results. Toronto and Montreal are the only two teams with a confidence rate of over 50%, followed by Boston, Minnesota, New York, and Ottawa. I think it’s interesting to think about potential offensive numbers but really can’t speak much to how accurate these have the chance of being because my main reaction is “huh yeah that’s a statistic people can make predictions on”

Player Predictions -

This definitely was a lot less definitive on almost all fronts, and I joked while advertising this that you could just type in MPP for all the answers and get half of them right, which seems to be the approach that some of you took. It’s fair, but expect a lot of repetition looking at these charts due to that because she is just that pervasive. I’ll try to mention as many players you guys picked as possible but you might have to look at the charts because I am neither an expert in all players nor a good enough writer to say anything other than “Yeah that’s certainly a player”

Above 1.00 points per game played: Marie Philip-Poulin (13 votes)

And here is the start to our MPP sweep, starting strong off the bat, about half of the 26 answers to this question included her which makes sense. She was second only to Natalie Spooner last season, with 1.1 pt/g and unless something weird happens I see no reason to suspect otherwise from her. I honestly didn’t expect as many other players to be suggested, after all it was only Natalie Spooner and Marie Philip-Poulin which makes sense, it’s an impressive statistic, but everyone seemed to have their favorites. Sarah Nurse was one player who hasn’t really been on my radar but you guys seem to like her, for this question and a bunch of other ones. I personally am partial to a Hilary Knight comeback season from this list but would be interested to see anyone make that jump.

In the Top Ten Points Getters: Marie Philip-Poulin (15 votes)

Everyone raise their hands if they’re surprised MPP won this in a landslide, oh wait literally no one is surprised I could have told you this when it was literally only my vote on the board. You’ll learn very quickly that oftentime the runaway winner of these simple questions aren’t really the interesting ones, it’s everyone else that got nominated that you can really dig into. Everyone who got top 10 last year, 18-27 points was up here in this list except Brianne Jenner and Katerina Mrazova which I’m chalking up to you guy’s Ottawa hate. Shoutout to Tobi and the one other person who voted for Gabbie Hughes and also Ronja Savolainen, you are the real ones rooting for the Charge.

Also I don’t know if it’s because with Natalie Spooner just kind of ruled the world coming out of Toronto I was completely blindsided by Sarah Nurse on most of these questions sorry Nursey I forgot you existed a little bit hopefully the Toronto girlies don’t tear me apart for that one.

PIMPG Over 1.00 Minutes: Abby Roque (16 votes)

The certainty of the questions ticks up by one for the next few and as much as everyone believed in MPP being awesome overall, one more person believed in Abby Roque being a criminal on skates and/or overly penalized, I didn’t leave room for that distinction. Tereza Vanišová earned the dubious distinction of second place but only with 6 votes and Emma Maltais earned third with a measly 3. Not a ton of Rookie representation here but I’ll be interested to see if any of this draft class take up this mantle. Also shoutout to the two people who voted Kaleigh Fratkin despite her not playing that’s so real and valid of you.

Save Percentage Over 0.920: Aerin Frankel (17 votes)

With the most votes of any player for a single category, Aerin Frankel, The Green Monster, love of my life and the blockade of the Boston Fleet, absolutely swept this category. I might have been thinking this in my head, but it’s good to see my Frankel love reaffirmed for the upcoming season because she deserves it all. And maybe a gun if Boston decides to have a few repeat performances from last year (cough two fifty+ save games in a row cough). The goalie questions have an inherently smaller pool so there were fewer surprises because as a certified goalie lover I try to keep tabs on the situation in net across the league. I’m shocked ARD didn’t get as much of a nod here from Montreal fans but suppose the appeal of Montreal is dissimilar to Boston in that regard as you theoretically have a consistent offense.

20+ Games Started as a Goalie: Aerin Frankel (16 votes)

Honestly I’m surprised Maschmeyer didn’t run away with this question because if it’s who I’d like to see start 20 games and do wonderfully it’d definitely be Frankel but I think with the possible addition of Klara Peslarova Boston shouldn’t be overly reliant on her with Soderburg and potentially Peslarova to back her up. I suppose it might be overwhelming faith in Gwyneth Phillips to be a solid number 2 in Ottawa but she wasn’t that represented in other goalie questions so maybe it was just an oversight considering Masch had the most starts of any goalie in the league last year. More interestingly, I respect the one person who refrained from answering and basically said that there’s so much depth in the league that no goalie will get 20 out of 30 starts. I’m not sure if it’s accurate, but the depth is real so it’s possible.

Billie Jean King (MVP) Nominee: Marie-Philip Poulin (10 votes)

And now we’re officially back in MPP territory and I’m not gonna spend too much time breaking this down because yeah. If Poulin has a repeat performance from last season and Spooner’s out for a significant portion of the season on LTIR, it’s her award to lose. But let’s look at some of the people you think she has the chance to lose it to. Once again you guys are on the Sarah Nurse train and you know what I support. Seeing the team ratios, lots of Toronto, a smattering of everyone else, no Ottawa, is definitely interesting but I’m not nearly smart enough to make conclusions as to what that means so I’ll leave it up to you to decide. (Something something teams with depth might have less obvious candidates if they’re all kicking in?)

Forward of the Year Nominee: Marie-Philip Poulin (10 votes)

Wow. MPP for forward of the year, who possibly could have predicted this. Definitely not me. And yes, you all are probably right but that’s not interesting! That’s not fun and cool and interesting so let’s move on. More Sarah Nurse love in this house and I think I can confidently say there aren’t very many of you confident in a repeat performance from Spooner/think her injured status will prevent her from potentially making this list. It’s a bit more prominent but there’s definitely a big Daryl Watts faction of supporters and honestly I endorse this. I might not be a huge Toronto girlie but I always have a soft spot for players who move teams and she just seems like a very easy person to root for. I just hope she doesn’t do too well against Boston this Saturday <3

Defender of the Year Nominee: Ella Shelton and Erin Ambrose (7 votes)

See isn’t this fun, isn’t this interesting, a tie for first place and none of them are named Marie-Philip Poulin! (ignore the fact she isn’t eligible) Honestly, I think Ella Shelton and Erin Ambrose are the obvious but objectively correct candidates. They were both nominated and both deserving but I think Shelton was a little robbed, after all she was second in points for her team as a defender and fifth yes that’s right, fifth place for points overall. But alas Erin Ambrose is a titaness and also deserved the award so that’s not the point. The point is I think I’m slightly biased towards Shelton between our two winners. As our runners up, we’re really feeling that Sophie Jaques love and I might be anti-Minnesota but I can’t bring myself to be ant-Sophie Jaques. Of course I endorse Keller (Go Fleet!) and can’t say I know enough about the rest of these players defensively to speak definitively on their chances.

Goalie of the Year Nominee: Aerin Frankel (13 votes)

Peace and love on planet earth there’s not much to say that I didn’t already say in the save percentage or games started section so I won’t dawdle too much here other than to say that there was a little less variation of who you thought would be nominated versus who you thought would have a good season (starting 20+ times, high save percentage). You guys tend to stick with proven goalies, which makes sense and I can’t see any place I’d disagree other than to say I think that if Corinne Schroeder keeps up her save percentage (higher than Soupy last year) and New York lets her see less of a volume of shots (she saw about 31 per game as compared to Campbell’s 24) by actually playing defense, she could separate a bit from the other goalies in the league. I’m always rooting for Aerin Frankel and think she got robbed last year, so if she stays the Green Monster she was last season I think she has a really good chance.

Rookie of the Year Nominee: Sarah Fillier (12 votes)

This really reaffirmed for me that most of us have absolutely no clue anything about the depth of this rookie class. Of the nine players named, ⅔ of them were the first round of the draft, one of them isn’t even a rookie (Sorry Daryl Watts you won’t be getting this piece of hardware), and Curl and Daniel were second and third round picks respectively. Meanwhile over 20 rookie skaters got points in the preseason games alone and only Serdachny and Fillier from this list got more than 1 point. The rest of those seven players were all but forgotten. And I get it, preseason is preseason, but my prediction is we’ll have a few unexpected standouts who really break out in the league when no one really saw them coming. I don’t think Sarah Fillier will be snubbed with nominations, her preseason hatty proved that she’s coming out on all cylinders, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the other two are people not listed here. We shall see.

Significantly Better Year (Pt/G increased by at least 0.4): Hilary Knight (7 votes)

Listen, I might be biased as she is the Captain of the Fleet (which sounds so cool and I do need art of her in a pirate uniform immediately if not sooner) but I personally am rooting for a Hilary Knight revenge tour. I think we saw it at the rivalry series and in the single preseason game she graced the ice with her presence, but I think she’s the type of player who underperformed last season and is now prepared to rip the league a new one. This was definitely one of the more varied questions with most candidates getting 1 or 2 votes so I’ll let you make your own opinions though I will say a lot of you are on the Daryl Watts train and think she’ll find her footing in Toronto. My one note is I’m not sure if some of you got the question because there are some candidates here (Sarah Nurse most notably) who had great and/or good seasons (above 0.5 points per game) and going up by 0.4 or more would mean they’d become transcendent players on the same level as the Spooners and Poulins of last season. I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just saying there’s only so high players can go reasonably.

Involved in a Trade: Britta Curl (2 votes)

If the last question was a wide field of answers, this was a complete crapshoot. Aside from what I assume are two Minnesota fans hoping to dump Britta Curl on some other team, everyone else seems to be selected at random, so I won’t bother with any conjecture, you can observe and draw conclusions for yourself.

[charles-leclerc-official]

2024 China Grand Prix Race Analysis

Here is my full analysis of the 2024 Chinese Grand prix. I already covered the sprint in a separate post here.

The important thing to keep in mind about this weekend is that the Chinese track was a very unique surface. It caused a lot of unusual grip problems for many of the top teams. I think as a whole that this race saw some outlier results as far as car behavior goes.

Table of Contents Stake - Zhou - Valtteri Ferrari - Start - Charles: his race, vs Lando - Carlos - Data Analysis Mclaren - Lando - Oscar - Data Analysis Penalties - Logan - Kevin - Daniel - Lance VCARB Aston Martin Red Bull - Checo Final Thoughts

Stake

Zhou

I usually start these with Ferrari. However this is a special occasion. So we are starting the analysis by celebrating Zhou and his performance this weekend.

This was the first Chinese Grand Prix in Formula 1 history with a Chinese driver racing on track. Zhou Guanyu made history and considering the car he's in he gave a good performance for the home crowd. Between qualifying 10th in the sprint, making some pretty good overtakes during the race, and carrying his team after Valtteri's DNF it was a pretty good weekend all around.

It was so nice to see all of the home support for Zhou. He was given an honorary spot at parc fermé after the race, and I am so glad they did something special to highlight this moment for him and the country he is representing in F1.

Zhou driving this weekend really was the highlight. This was only ever going to happen once in F1. Glad I was here to see it.

Valtteri unfortunately suffered a power unit failure and had to retire from the race. No damage to the car. This did bring out the yellow flag and a VSC. And when the marshals were unable to roll the car off the track quickly enough it upgraded to a full safety car(don’t worry we will be coming back to this)

He was looking pretty good in the car until that point, actually getting close to the points. I think we might see Stake in the points this year if they ever get their pit stops under control.

Ferrari

Ferrari's race was probably the weakest for the team so far this season. It wasn't really a surprise though. The cooler temperatures and inconsistent track surface were not ideal for the SF24.

Charles started in P6 and finished P4, Carlos started P7 and finished P5.

I do consider this not to be indicative of any downward trend for Ferrari. It was pretty predictable and it did not reveal any issues in the SF-24 we weren't already aware of (tyre warming)

Ferrari did say that they sacrificed more in qualifying in favor of a better race setup. And I don't think this was necessarily a bad idea. It's impossible to say if a different setup might have put them higher and if they have been able to defend with that setup. Going for a more race focused setup and relying on the better tyre deg to be able to allow for overtaking is a pretty good plan, especially if they didn't think they could get much more out of qualifying.

This did mean that we got to see some proper overtakes in the SF-24 from Charles and that is something we just haven't seen a lot of this season so far. So seeing how it handles in that regard was good.

So the big question is, why did Ferrari suddenly end up behind a Mclaren when Ferrari have been easily beating them all season?

Well there are a few factors:

- Ferrari struggled this weekend with grip and failed to find the best balance in the car to maximize top speeds. They did sacrifice some downforce in favor of speed during the race but I don't think it was enough. It didn't do enough to help the top speeds and it sacrificed grip so we ended up a weird middle ground that didn't optimize either problem. This track surface really made it so hard to figure out the right direction for setup.

- Mclaren(Lando) were stronger than expected. Lando was really the one pulling performance out of that car.

I will point out some key areas on this in the data analysis section as well.

Race Start

The most notable thing about Ferrari’s race was the start, when Carlos compromised his and Charles’ start by attacking right into turn 1. This forced Charles to have to defend(something he should not have to do right off the race start from his own teammate who started behind) and this resulted in them both immediately losing a place to Russell. This was a place they both had to fight to make up.

Again, this kind of thing isn’t good when compromising the results for the whole team is the result.

Footage Analysis

Just so we are clear about who is responsible for the loss of placement I want to show the footage from this start. This is from Carlos' driver cam footage as it most clearly shows what happened.

Charles starts P6 with Carlos behind him in P7. George is behind them in P8.

Into turn 1 Charles has the inside line, very clearly. Carlos has the outside line into the turn, this is fine. Charles is also clearly ahead.

Carlos pushes inside more, putting pressure on Charles. Notice how much closer Carlos got and how much space he left on the outside(another vulnerability he left open)

Charles pushes Carlos back(to defend which he has to do if attacked especially into a crowded corner like that a the race start)

Charles then took full position in front of Carlos, and this allowed George to slip past both of them on the inside line.

Because Carlos forced Charles to defend George was able to take that inside line that Charles had and passed both of them, dropping Charles and Carlos down a place.

Charles cannot defend both the outside and inside line on his own. He defended against the car that put pressure on him first. His teammate should not be the main one he has to defend team track position against.

Carlos compromised Charles' ability to defend position against George(which is the priority, he's on a rival team that is more important than racing between teammates)

Again if he is attacked Charles has to defend, why would he give up the place to the teammate he was faster than? Nothing would have happened if Carlos hadn’t pulled this move. Charles would have kept George behind and they might have been able to overtake earlier in the race and gain one more position, because they lost a full position to George this early they had to take that back before they could make progress climbing further up the field.

Carlos

This was Carlos' weakest performance so far this year. He compromised the race start for himself and Ferrari causing them both to lose placement immediately. Then he was unable to overtake. The only real overtakes he's pulled off were on cars with seriously compromised brakes.

He struggled with grip and tyres more than Charles. They both had issues in this area but it was more noticeable in his performance.

Charles finished 10.36 seconds ahead of his teammate who was directly behind him in the final 13 laps this race. And that gap can be explained by the fact Carlos was stuck behind Fernando for more laps(as well as a pit stop), however once he got into clean air he did not make up any time at all, his pace didn’t gain on Charles at all with the clean air. A gap in pace that big between teammates is concerning(at least for Carlos) It may be due to his personal choice of setup, or tyre management, or grip in the track. Given that he had more issues with grip on this track I am thinking that was a factor. He lost most of his time on turns 1, 5, 7, 8, and 10.

Edit: also Carlos did pit under normal conditions while Charles pitted under the safety car, this saved Charles some time(aprox 7-8 seconds), however the main point stands that Carlos did not make any progress closing the gap between them.

Charles

Charles' overtakes climbing up the field really saved Ferrari's race. Starting off by losing a position he climbed up places pulling some really clean overtakes and also helping his teammate through.

It was great to see him doing some overtaking in this car, he hasn't been in the position to do much of that due to track position etc in previous races. SF-24 looked good on that front in his hands.

Charles mentioned the lack of speed on straights, and this is due to the fact he wasn't able to gain on Lando in those sections(when he should have) this is due to the less than optimal downforce balance Ferrari went with this weekend(again I don't this is anything terribly concerning, this was a hard track to get that right on)

Overall Charles ran a really good race, obviously not the results he wanted but he extremely optimistic about the upgrades and that they will address some of the current limitations of the SF-24.

Data Analysis

I want to compare Charles and Lando's pace to highlight where Mclaren had the edge on Ferrari in this race. Charles was the fastest Ferrari this weekend and Lando was the fastest Mclaren.

First here is a breakdown of the fastest lap both driver's set.

Lando's straight line speed was really a big factor in keeping him ahead. That plus the fact he was consistently strong in sector 2.

And here is a look at the overall race pace between the two.

Ignore the mess in the middle, that curve is just correcting a slope for the outlier laps due to yellow flag and safety car conditions. It's not important here.

Lando had the edge on Charles almost the entire race. Until the end on the old hards.

What is important is that Lando had the pace on the new hards. Charles didn’t have the time to catch Lando once he managed to gain the places. He probably would have without the yellow flags and if track placement was better. The point being that Ferrari’s pace was off this weekend but it wasn’t as bad as it looked on track, there were other factors at play.

I think this result was a combination of a sub-optimal setup for this track on Ferrari's part on top of the fact this wasn't Ferrari’s strongest track, and Mclaren getting things right for Lando. Also some fairly solid driving from Lando.

Now I want to compare Charles' and Carlos' fastest laps and pace. This was the biggest gap in performance we've seen so far this year between the two Ferraris. Some of that I will attribute to the fact this track was weird as far as track surface goes, but such a big difference between teammates like this means it wasn't just the car or the track surface. While both were not great with grip or setup this weekend one outperformed the other by a decent margin.

Here is a look at Charles' and Carlos' fastest laps.

Charles having better straight line speed consistently and putting in a strong sector three is what put him ahead of Carlos and kept him there for the entire race.

Now here is the full race pace.

Again remember to ignore the weird lines in the middle that is just the graphing tool not able to create a good slope for all the safety car laps.

But you can see that Charles' pace was better the entire race, on both the medium and the hard tyres.

I don't think there was a lot more to get out of this weekend for Ferrari. It's possible managing the pits a little differently would have gotten Charles up to third but with the yellow flag chaos It was really difficult to gauge in real time when the best time to pit was. I think the pit management was good. We can look back and go "oh we could have gained a place here" So I have no issues there.

Hopefully that clears up some questions about Ferrari's overall race and car performance this weekend.

Overall this was still decent points for the constructors’ and we saw some good racing from Charles. I do fully believe we will be seeing Ferrari come back stronger in Miami.

Mclaren

Why was Mclaren, specifically Lando, so strong this weekend?

Well it's unclear.

They have had the clear #3 car so far this season. So I think that it's a combination of this not being a strong track for Ferrari and some conditions that favored their car that put them ahead.

No one, not even Mclaren expected this so I really think it seems like it comes down to this track being better for them than expected and Lando specifically being tuned into the track. Like after practice Lando was not feeling confident(his words) and the team were also not making any promises. I don’t think they were sandbagging, I think this genuinely all came together for them. 

Now it’s clear that Lando would have finished P3 behind Checo if it were not for the luck/strategy(a little of both they timed that well, but also had to get lucky with Red Bull timing) with the pits. Red Bull lost track position to Lando when they pitted Checo and they were unable to take it back. If Red Bull had timed their stop better Lando would have been P3 because his pace was not going to catch Checo if he was ahead.

So the P2 is due to some good driving on Lando’s part and Red Bull giving up track position and failing to recover it.

Oscar struggled more on this track. However he wasn't far outside where we've seen him in other races and for Mclaren in general. So he wasn’t under-performing, Lando was over performing. I also want to note that Oscar was slightly damaged during the crash between Lance and Dani, Dani's front wing tapped the rear of his car and there may have been a small amount of damage, important to note as he may have been compromised on pace due to this.

Data Analysis

Comparison of Lando and Checo’s pace

The first half of the race isn’t as important, the graph is very odd in the middle due to all of the outlier laps caused by the yellow flags, so that is not important. What I want to point out is that Lando was on the same pace as Checo(or slightly better) for those first 6 laps after the race started again when all the yellow flags were done, but after that Checo was faster until the end of the race. Not enough to catch Lando, but enough that Lando would not have been able to pass him if he hadn’t had track position.

Now here is a quick look at Lando and Oscar's pace.

There isn't a ton to dissect here, Lando was faster the entire race, by a pretty big margin on the hards especially. Given that a lot of drivers this race had issues managing deg on the hards I think that second stint gap really came down to tyre management, an area where Oscar is still improving.

Here is a look at their fastest laps to really see where Lando was making those bigger gains and where Oscar was struggling.

One thing that I find interesting is that Oscar's fastest lap had a section of DRS, Lando's didn't and Lando was still a full second faster. Just a really solid lap from Lando all around. His strength in sector 2 is what really gave him an edge all race.

Overall this was Mclaren’s best finish, but their strongest weekend overall so far this season is still Australia(because both drivers had a strong finish not just one)

Penalties and Incidents

Welcome to the “everyone gets a penalty!” section of the analysis. This was a mess to unravel. After reviewing the footage and reading the stewards judgements as well as the driver and teams statements I have come to a lot of the same conclusions as the stewards. 

The middle of this race was a mess. One yellow flag had just ended before another had to be brought out again. 

There were two yellow flags this race, the first after Valtteri DNF'ed and the second due to multiple incidents right after the end of the first yellow flag. 

My biggest critique is that the VSC was deployed weirdly late. They seemed about 10 to 20 seconds off in calling for one, and that is concerning. A driver on the side of the track is at risk, so it’s important to make sure a race is slowed immediately.

Logan: overtook under safety car conditions after the VSC was enacted when Valtteri’s power unit failed. Nico was coming out of the pitlane as Logan was coming down the straight, Nico managed to barely exit in front of Logan, but Logan’s faster momentum into turn 1 put him ahead of Nico, and thus he overtook under a yellow flag. Time penalty and license points is an appropriate penalty. I have no idea why his team didn’t get him to slow down more. They said they missed Nico, which I really don't know how. Lack of track observation. This was a failure of the team as much as it was sloppy on Logan's part. I think he would have slowed more had the team actually noticed this sooner.

Kevin: Kevin made contact with Yuki going out of turn 6 right after the race restart. He broke late and made contact with Yuki’s rear wheel and this led to a tyre puncture. Yuki had to retire from the race. Kevin was clearly at fault here, he failed to brake when catching Yuki.

Daniel: Dani was penalized for overtaking under a yellow flag and a safety car. He did this deliberately because Nico took a place from him and he thought it was okay to take that spot back. However he should have waited for the race to resume under green light conditions before doing that. He knows better. What happened with Nico is a little murky as far as why he took a position and why he did not get penalized. I think it's because it was right before the safety car but the FIA reporting on that isn't clear.

Lance: At turn 14 Lance rear ended Daniel after the first safety car had ended they were waiting on Max to restart the race. Max was leading the race and setting the pace until proper racing speeds could resume. Lance is at fault here, it’s that simple. This was seriously negligent driving on his part. I really have no idea what he was doing but no competent driver does this. I will agree with Oscar in the sentiment that everyone was crowded together, only one person crashed into another car in that scenario. 

“Yes, but not everyone decided to crash into each other.” - Oscar 

Lance argued that it was the concertina effect, and said the stewards should account for that. This is a weak argument at best. The concertina effect is to describe car behavior on track, it isn’t an excuse. Going into a corner a driver who is supposedly one of the best in the world should know how to account for that effect. The fact is that he was going too fast into that corner and not paying attention to the car in front of him.  

Furthermore his lack of accountability and attempts to blame everyone but himself for the incident is not a good look. He is very clearly in the wrong here. I think that the penalty he received might be on the gentle side of things as well. Personally I would have liked to see a 20 second time penalty for that, or a grid penalty. 

I agree with Dani’s statement that Lance should have only been paying attention to the car in front of him. He clearly wasn’t doing that, or at least not well enough. He appears to be looking at Max and Oscar waiting for Max to restart the race. But that is not where he should have been looking. Additionally Dani pointed out that Lance’s speed there was too much, he put half his car under Dani, that’s not the concertina effect, that is going too fast. 

Dani of course is heated, and I feel that for him, he DNF'ed because of the carelessness of another driver through no real fault of his own. I don’t think continuing to argue is good on either side, but he has every right to be mad, especially when the offending driver refuses to admit his fault. Two DNFs in a row is hard for any driver. Lance really cost him a lot. 

This isn’t just sloppy driving on Lance’s part, it's outright negligent.

VCARB

Quick note about VCARB. Dani was on track for his best performance all year this weekend. Which makes the DNF all the more upsetting. Yuki struggled with this track all weekend, seems he was not feeling this track or that car. I will say his performance seems like an anomaly compared with the rest of his season so far so I don’t think it’s cause for concern for future races. 

VCARB as a team were obviously the worst off this weekend with both driver’s DNF'ing at no fault of their own.

Aston Martin

I already covered Lance, so I want to just quickly mention that Fernando was on fire this weekend. He was defending, and had that car in places it really had no business being. His recovery from the close spin, the defending, the overtakes. He really is just continuing to show his skill and experience, and he overall had one of the best drives of the entire race.

Red Bull

Max won the race, and it was a pretty clean race for him, which is amusing due to the utter chaos happening behind him. First time he has won at this track, so that is another track conquered by Max. Well done Max!

Sergio

Checo’s race wasn’t actually that bad. He was comfortably in P2 until Red Bull gave up track position and he wasn’t able to recover the place from Lando. I already compared the pace between those two. But I think it’s pretty clear that he would have been P2 were it not for the pits. If he has position he has the pace to keep the spot. However he does not have the same pace Max has in the RB20 to take lost positions back if the car ahead has similar pace. 

I also want to note here that there were a few corners where it was pointed out that Alpine and Williams were outperforming Ferrari on. However taking a look at the data it wasn’t just Ferrari. Pierre was literally faster than Max in that corner consistently. What this tells me is that something about the unusual grip of this track was not suited to any of the fastest cars. So it��s not a Ferrari problem, or a Red Bull problem, it’s just highlighting an unusual quirk of the track that no one really figured out this weekend.

Here is a fastest lap comparison of Pierre and Max. Obviously Max is the best driver in the best car, so I think this just highlights my point about certain corners especially turns 1, 2, and 3. There was something off there that gave the edge to some midfield cars are far as grip goes. All top cars struggled for speed on those turns and I think it was due to weird track surface conditions.

Final Thoughts

This was the most chaotic race of the season. Hopefully we have a penalty free race next time.

See you when I return with Miami GP analysis!

[redistrictgirl]

The Big Gut Check - Presidency

Disclaimer: This is NOT my model and this is NOT statistics-focused.

We’re in the final countdown to the second wacky federal election in a row. I have all the information I want to set some personal expectations, and a LOT of you wanted to see my hunch, so here it is. I disagree with my model.

I think Vice President Harris is in a very good position heading into Election Day. I’m not saying that as a left-leaning hack, I’m saying this from the same place that made me predict the winners of 49 out of 50 states correctly in 2020. I’m also hopeful that, after four years of studying the intricacies of electoral politics in my free time, those feelings are even sharper. I doubt I’m going to bat .980 again, to be clear, but I think I can at least provide more insight than the people who just say “it’s close, IDK” or “Harris is gonna win South Carolina” or “New Hampshire is a tossup!”

Let’s break down what I expect to be the closest states as well as some of my hot takes, including my reasoning. Margin predictions will be within two points, because a four-point range tells us nothing and trying to call it within a single point is like trying to hit a dartboard bullseye with a giant Sharpie. My favorite points of consideration included:

My hypothesis of modern political gravity, where elections center around a D+3 margin (+/- 1) in the popular vote on presidential years.

Nate Silver’s, Nate Cohn’s, and Ettingermentum’s analyses of pollster herding (or adjusting of results excessively to match the consensus).

The final Selzer, Siena, and Marist polls, parsed with an understanding of them as snapshots and not predictions.

A few smart peoples’ analyses of early voting in Pennsylvania. (Ralston would have made it too if he didn’t drag his feet.)

General Thoughts: I think Ms. Harris is being underestimated, both because her national polling average has fallen substantially below the D+2 to D+4 range we would expect from our highly polarized electorate and because her statewide polling is atrocious compared to even that. Herding might be contributing here. Mr. Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, is incredibly nervous, to the point where THEY LEAKED AN INTERNAL THAT STILL SHOWED HIM LOSING GROUND FROM 2020. I’m also seeing a high enthusiasm factor from Democrats, not just in opinion polling, but on the ground compared to what I saw in the heart of Atlanta in Fall 2020 (to be fair, enthusiasm among the GOP is also clearly substantial!) I was real about Ms. Harris’ collapse in October, but I think she’s bouncing back at the perfect time and polls are missing it (similarly to Mr. Trump in 2016, some might argue.)

Wisconsin: Yes, this is probably going to be the tipping point state again. I don’t care that Pennsylvania is supposedly closer in the polls, this happened in 2020 too. That said, we have a very good poll for Ms. Harris here from Marist and the state shares a border with Iowa (more on that later). Harris +0 to +2

Pennsylvania: 2022 repeat. Early vote has been exactly what Democrats need and hedging has been berserk in this state. The only thing that makes me hesitate on this is an even poll from Siena, even if the Marist one was rough for Mr. Trump. Harris +1 to +3

North Carolina: This might be a little bit of a surprise given my… other Sun Belt takes. But there’s a fantastic poll for Ms. Harris here from Siena and I think an overall slightly bluer environment than polls indicate will also make this closer than the current data suggest. Though it could be a “Dewey Defeats Truman” situation, Marist’s poll last week is a bright spot for Mr. Trump. Gun to my head, Harris, but this is still my pick for the closest state presidentially. Trump +1 to Harris +1

Nevada: In the absence of Ralston’s guidance, I feel like there’s a lot of split signs between polling and demographics, but this feels like a state Mr. Trump wins in a squeaker. Trump +1 to Harris +1

Georgia: Say what you will about him, but the Georgia GOP is building momentum under Governor Brian Kemp. The top pollsters have broken a bit from the riffraff, being nicer to Democrats, but I don’t think it will be quite enough. Trump +2 to +0

Arizona: If you said this would be Mr. Trump’s best swing state two years ago, I would have laughed in your face. But the polling is undeniable at this point - the former President is approaching 50% in the averages and top pollsters have been even more impressive for him. The crank in me blames Katie Hobbes for being forgettable. Trump +4 to +2

Iowa: I think Ann Selzer might have her first genuine miss on her hands - it’s just too hard to construct a presidential-year environment where Ms. Harris wins the state or keeps it as close as The Big Seven. At the same time, unless she’s comically wrong (and I would never bet that hard against her), there’s almost certainly going to be very real, very substantial movement away from Republicans in the Hawkeye State. Trump +5 to +3

Maine’s Second Congressional District: I’ve been bearish on Mr. Trump here all cycle thanks to a poor showing for the GOP in 2022, and our very limited polling here seems to line up with that. Trump +4 to +2

Kansas: Very demographically similar to Iowa, it was zooming left even before this cycle, and the lone recent poll I believe we have from this state was almost as shocking as Selzer’s, only having the Vice President trailing by 5%. Trump +10 to +8

New Jersey: It would be strange for every non-giant state to trend left or mostly stagnate, and the Garden State seems like a prime candidate to move in Mr. Trump’s direction given its proximity to New York and high nonwhite and (to a lesser extent) Orthodox Jewish population. This is a very wild guess, but hey, no polling to contradict me. Harris +8 to +10

Texas: A rare example where I think pollsters might be herding in favor of Ms. Harris, considering the border (again), nonwhite population (again), and the fact that Siena’s most recent poll, despite being nearly ten days old, had Mr. Trump gaining in the state. Trump +7 to +5

[birdship]

This project is unfinished and will remain that way. There are bugs. Not all endings are implemented. The ending tracker doesn't work. Images are broken. Nothing will be fixed. There's still quite a bit of content, though, so I am releasing what's here as is.

Tilted Sands is a project I started back when AI Dungeon first came out--the very early version you had to run in a Google colabs notebook. Sometime in late 2018, I think? I was a contributor at Botnik Studios at the time and I was delighted by AI Dungeon, but I knew it would never be a truly satisfying choose your own adventure generator on its own. I would argue that the modern AI Dungeon 2 and NovelAI don't fully function as such even now. That's not how AI works. It has to be guided heavily, the product has to be sculpted by human hands.

Anyway, it inspired me to use Transformer--a GPT2 predictive text writing tool--to craft a more coherent and polished but still silly and definitely AI-flavored CYOA experience. It was an ambitious project, but I was experienced with writing what I like to call "cyborg" pieces--meaning the finished product is, in a way, made by both an AI/algorithm/other bot AND a human writer. Something strange and wonderful that could not have been made by the bot alone, nor by the human writer alone. Algorithms can surprise us and trigger our creative human minds to move in directions we never would've thought to go in otherwise. To me, that's what actual AI art is: a human engaging in a creative activity like writing in a way that also includes utilizing an algorithm of some sort. The results are always fascinating, strangely insightful, and sometimes beautiful.

I worked on Tilted Sands off-and-on for a couple years, and then the entire AI landscape changed practically overnight with DALL-E and ChatGPT. And I soon realized that I cannot continue working on this project. Mainstream, corporate AI is disgustingly unethical and I don't want the predictive text writing I used to enjoy so much to be associated with "AI art". It's not. Before DALL-E and ChatGPT, there were artists and writers who made art by utilizing algorithms, neural networks, etc. Some things were perhaps in an ethical or legal grey area, but people actually did care about that. I remember discussing "would it be ethical to scrape [x]?" with other writers, and sharing databases of things like commercial advertising scripts and public domain content. I liked using mismatched databases to write things, like a corpus of tech product reviews that I used to write a song. The line between transformative art and fair use vs theft was constantly on all of our minds, because we were artists ourselves.

All of the artists and writers I knew in those days who made "cyborg art" have stopped by now. Including me.

But I poured a lot of love and thought and energy into this silly little project, and the thought of leaving it to rot on my hard drive hurt too much. It's not done, but there's a lot there--over 14,000 words, multiple endings and game over scenarios. I had so much fun with it and I wanted to complete it, but I can't. I don't want it to be associated in any way with the current "AI art" scene. It's not.

Please consider this my love letter to what technology-augmented art used to be, and what AI art could have been.

I know I'm not the only one mourning this brief but intense period from about 2014-2019 in which human creativity and developing AI technology combined organically to create an array of beautiful, stupid, silly, terrible, wonderful works of art. If you're also feeling sad and nostalgic about it, I hope you find this silly game enjoyable even in its unfinished state.

In conclusion:

Fuck capitalism, fuck what is currently called AI art, fuck ChatGPT, fuck every company taking advantage of artists and writers and other creative types by using AI.

[katyspersonal]

What are your expectations/theories for Messmer?

I have a few! I even considered making a predictions bingo on him specifically to check when DLC comes out! XD But overall the predictions resulted from me and @val-of-the-north bouncing the ideas around 🤔 I'll need to link a few of other posts here too to help clarifying some relevant topics!

___________________________________

1) I think he is one of the children between Marika and Godfrey, or maybe even her first-born!

At first I was also thinking that him having red hair was a damning evidence that he had to be born from selfcest, like Malenia and Miquella! But Val brought this to my attention that in ER manga, which is apparently on a stronger level of directing than BB comics from my knowledge, Rykard is a blond!

So Val suggested that genes can work a funny way since Marika and Radagon are still the same person, and if Rykard got Marika's golden hair gene even from Radagon's body, the reverse is possible and someone in Golden Lineage could have red hair even from Marika! I also agree because Miquella is venturing into the Shadows Land presumably to discover Marika's secrets:

(Famitsu interview with Miyazaki, taken from this ( x ) post) But Messmer to me feels like he would be fully aware of every Marika's dark secret there is! I joke that he is very Lucifer-coded, but actually Satan-coded is a better comparison. He is the holder of "Hell", where the 'graceless' beings and those rejected by Golden Order reside, like that ancient Misbegotten(ish) creature! If he was the third sibling of this kind, why would he know more than Malenia and Miquella? (I mean, surprise me!) But if he had been there from the very start, carrying her (God's) punishment, then sure!

My other clue towards that is that he shares the "spartan" aesthetic in his clothes with Godfrey and his Duelists ( x ) (and actually Goldmask too)! This whole thing with leg wraps and waistwrap!

2) He is the first to historically partake in Dragon Communion, and the inspiration of Drake Knights

There are dragonic features about himself, the design of his armour and his snakes! Initially I thought of Dragonic Sentinels too, but their whole deal is to combat Granssax, who I concluded attacked after Farum Azula war and Placidusax' lord was fled. More than that, their deal is 'electric' line of dragons specifically, whereas Drake Knights and others who that partake in Dragon Communion are not picky! They eat dragon hearts to take their power, and that includes 'fire' line of dragons, like Greyoll and her spawn!

I speculate that he was the first person historically, with the bright idea of eating dragon heart to take its power, and this is where his fire powers came from. Fire is associated with heresy, but in his case it was both: assuming powers of dragons was heresy itself (so, before Godwyn made dragons 'friends'), but fire powers came from it! As a Demigod, he also did not meet the same miserable fate as Magma Wyrms! He had the privilege to really take something useful by being not mere mortal.

3) The snakes, therefore, are part of his body!

There are two of them, and I assume they're growing from the base of his spine and function like his tails! If Placidusax is anything to go by, this is part of him developing multiple heads but in the way that would not mess with his body too much. Funny enough, I had two dreams of Gwyndolin as a baby, and in both Gwyndolin as a child only had two snakes that did work as tails, so maybe I am biased!

4) Rotten Duelists also take inspiration from him

I am resharing the image by Val from a post I've already linked, but whereas they elaborate sign of Godfrey and hatred for the Giants in their design, the snakes around their arms and on their helmets are supposed to refer to Messmer!

I imagine Godfrey and Messmer being that super cool OG battle duo. Duelists feature two kinds of 'heresy' in their design - the snakes and the symbols of the Giants, and I assume they were proudly wearing these before being driven from the Coliseum! Back then symbolism of "taking power from the enemy" was something honourable, and so was what Messmer did - becoming 'sinful' to be the more powerful weapon of Marika was courageous and virtuous of him. So, snakes were also fine to proudly depict in the clothes! Until it was not:

5) He is banished for (attempted) burning of the Erdtree

This theory is coined in by @val-of-the-north! In this ( x ) post it is explained better, but in short, there are evidences that the big golden Erdtree we see is an illusion, most interesting one is ashes being all over Leyendell even before defeating Maliketh. So that's why it no longer is giving its blessed sap and is "only an object of faith" now, though its lower part is still physical of course. I agree with this idea!

I think he had to do something bad because of the huge sealed eye possibility! Ranni and Melina also have an eye sealed, and both are Demigods that had their 'privilege' within the Golden Order removed in one way or another. Messmer, on the other way, wows to burn whoever is devoid of grace, so I doubt that he would willingly divest himself of it! Whereas he's been heretical for dragonic powers and the 'Satan' to her system to take care of the 'sinners' from the beginning, but he got excommunicated from the family and likely erased from its records! Bonus points if Godwyn being the first in the Golden Lineage is just what they tell people now!

6) GEOOOOOORGGGEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!

I've always had a feeling that whereas everyone is anticipating him to become the first true Soulsborne sexyman, something just has to put a dent in it. Just something to sour the character. I can't explain it, it is like sixth sense...? But I think I finally know what it is. During answering this ask, I payed attention how even with other things put in consideration, he still appears to be loyal to his mother and the purpose she intended to him. He speaks defensive against her letting the "unworthy" to become a Lord. Like... this is not necessarily something weird, it could just be strong loyalty even against his self-interest like what we see in Maliketh or Morgott, but there is just strange sixth sense about perhaps some Freudian shit going on in his head that I can't shake, and not anti-climatic one after what they did with Mohg.

7) Motivation for attempted burning of the Erdtree were themes of ambition and perfection

I will link a couple of posts (with pictures) in which I explained how Erdtree is itself a Crucible and how I theorise existence of Omens resulted in denying and loathing the thing ( x ) ( x ). They're not too long tbh, and in both I forgot to bring up the fact that Ancestral Followers worship Minor Erdtrees :') But the main point is, everything sacred will eventually rot and die, however, giving the way to a new thing to sprout from it, and that was something Marika was unwilling to accept. Erdtree and Golden Order, were supposed to be Eternal, like herself.

Marika made everything that reminded of the other side of life, like Misbegotten and Omens, illegal, and ensured immortality in the best way she could, but Messmer took it even further. He attempted to remove the 'life' aspect of the Elden Ring, to separate the sacred power granted to his mother and relatives from the earth. So, from from inevitable death, from ever rotting, from 'cycle'... from everything "imperfect", so it could be just the one perfect, pure, 100% spiritual thing in their hands. + I think what he did happened after Gloam-Eyed Queen fiasco, so that was another point in realising the instability and imperfection. + to draw from the previous point, he might have been really pissed at Greater Will itself on behalf of his mother.

Except, what he did was not something even Marika would agree to. Greater Will specifically sought this "imperfect" world FOR its "imperfections", to gain form and purpose through births and deaths and feelings and struggles from the amorphous empty cosmic state. It was suffering from its superiority, there was nothing to love or hate or want. It gives me the same vibe as how in BB, the Great Ones are willing to trade their perfection for simple joy of loving a child; they don't need to give birth since they're immortal and their genes are not in need of surviving, but there is just... nothing in this immortality. This is something Messmer would not understand. Sellen is another example of this mindset, aspiring for the things the "perfect" beings were willing to escape. It is always the case of 'greener grass' lol

But yes, absolutely no one appreciated the attempt to separate the Elden Ring from being rooted into mortal "flawed" things. I think he still thinks he is right, and that whatever little dialogue he will have should contain quite the vitriol.

8) In the second stage of his battle, he will become far more dragonic.

I expect at least something happening with the snakes akin to becoming his wings. Maybe he will even turn into a dragon, a two-headed one! + also if there is no particularly gruesome (lethal) visceral attack by his snakes I will rebel lol

___________________

Soooo yeah... This isn't much, but my imagination is weak when I have limited information x) I have also seen an idea that the thing that pierces Marika's body might be his doing since he is titled the Impaler, but for now I think this is not the case! Her hammer is full of similar sharp shards of Elden Ring, so I think this is just another shard, or, perhaps, something Elden Beast threw at her. Red coloration comes from being bloodied! Marika was a mortal once, after all!

[ejzah]

Hi! How are you? I'm so glad to see you're still writing for LA. I'm a big fan of your fics. And as I was randomly thiking about Densi, I was thinking we never got to see Kensi ask Callen and Sam to walk her down the aisle. I was wondering if you could write it? Especially Callen/Kensi because I love their friendship. Thanks again for taking the time to write wonderful stories! :)

A/N: Dear anon, so sorry for the delay (my constant anthem). Thank you for your kind words and continued support!

***

Going to the Chapel

“No, no, I don’t actually have the wedding date yet, I’m it trying to get an idea of how much catering for between one hundred and two hundred people would be. Um, I’m not sure about that,” Kensi said, tugging on her bottom lip as the caterer on the other end of the line continued to ask questions she didn’t have the answers to. “Right. I suppose I should figure that out first. Yes. Thank you so much for your time.”

She hung up, rubbing her temples. There was another hour of her life gone with no results to show for it.

“I take it wedding planning is going well,” Callen commented from beside her. His sarcastic delivery made her crack the tiniest hint of a smile. She’d almost forgotten he and Sam were in the bullpen with her.

“At this point, I’m beginning to think Deeks was right and we should have just eloped. Would have been so much easier. And less stressful.”

“I remember when Michelle and I got married. We had a tiny ceremony and reception and it still took a couple months to plan. Trying to accommodate relatives was probably the hardest part,” Sam shared knowingly.

“Oh my god, yes!” Kensi groaned. “I love Roberta, but she has so many opinions, and even though my mom is less vocal about it, I know she has just as many. Deeks spent two hours convincing his mom that we did not need crystal centerpieces to give all the guests or beef prime rib.”

“Well, we’re here to support you guys however we can,” Sam offered. “Especially if it means we get this wedding on the road.

“I will help with everything but folding napkins,” Callen specified, nodding significantly when Sam gave him an odd look.

“Actually,” Kensi hesitated. She’d been debating the whole walking down the aisle issue for months. Did she ask her mom or walk alone? Just skip it altogether?

“There is something I wanted to ask you,” she finished before she could lose the nerve again. “You don’t have to if you don’t want to though.”

“Why, is it something weird?” Callen asked. “I also draw the line at helping pick out lingerie.”

“Oh my god, no. I swear you get ten times worse when Deeks isn’t around,” Kensi said, making a face. “No, I was wondering if you and Sam would consider walking me down the aisle.”

“You want us to give you away?” Sam said, sounding surprised.

“I like to look at it more like being transported to the next stage of my life.”

“Wow, wedding planning really has screwed with your brain.

Kensi jabbed her elbow in Callen’s direction, and he moved to the side, chuckling.

“I’m serious. I was going to ask Granger before he passed.” She paused, blinking away the sudden tears in her eyes. When she spoke again, her voice betrayed a slight shakiness. “You know, since he knew my dad and he turned out to be a pretty good mentor.”

“Granger would have hated that,” Callen predicted.

“Yeah, but he wouldn’t have let anyone else do it. The man had a soft spot for sure,” Sam added. He nodded to Kensi, his expression compassionate. “I’m sorry Don couldn’t be here to walk you down that aisle.”

“I think he would be happy to know it’s two of the best men in my life,” Kensi told them honestly.

“Well, after that I don’t think we can say no,” Callen said softly.

“Definitely not.”

Kensi stood to give each of them a hug, lingering a moment in Sam’s comforting strength. “Thank you.”

“We show up for family. But “two of the best”?” Sam pointed out, feigning offense. “Not the best.”

“Only because you’ll be leading me to the very best man in my life,” Kensi said.

“Smitten,” Callen sighed, shaking his head.

“Yep, she stood no chance against the curly blonde hair and blue eyes,” Sam lamented.

Kensi just rolled her eyes, secretly enjoying their teasing.

***

A/N: I hope that was ok. It’s very rare for me to write a fic that doesn’t include even a tiny bit of Deeks.

Thanks for the prompt!

[fantasiawandering]

@belphegor1982 tagged me 20 questions for writers thingy, and I don't know if I'm a writer again yet, but I don't think there's anything here I can't answer. Thank you for thinking of me! I'm going to tag in anyone who sees this and goes "oooh!" But also @dawntreaderflynne especially.

How many works do you have on AO3?

29, but some of those are novel length.

What's your total AO3 word count?

553,402. Whoof.

What fandoms do you write for?

Mostly TMNT and Undertale, with solitary forays into Mass Effect, Dragon Age, and Transformers Prime.

What are your top 5 fics by kudos?

A Shield Against the Dark - Part one of the Undertale odyssey that started out as trying to work out a couple of things before getting the story I actually wanted to write. Which has yet to be written.

Adventures in Human Sitting - Undertale shenanigans exploring what happens when a human is raised by a bunch of well-meaning monsters who don't quite know what they're doing.

The Monster Files - What happens when human authorities attempt to investigate these strange new monstrous arrivals in the overworld by hacking into the Monster Embassy computer networks, with predictably unpredictable (and occasionally pasta-filled) results.

Hushabye - Undertale fluff between Frisk and Sans, originally written as an exercise to hammer out the weird tonal push and pull of their platonic soulmate thing.

To Heir is Human - More Undertale fluff (yeah there's a theme) in which Asgore and Toriel have to deal with their incredibly complex feelings when Frisk falls ill (featuring Sans's reaction as well by request).

I'm honestly really surprised there's no TMNT on this, actually.

Do you respond to comments? Why or why not?

Yes. Unless it's something that's un-respond-able, I do try to respond to everything. When my brain breaks I tend to avoid the inbox out of guilt, but I do get there eventually. Even if it takes a few years.

What's the fic you wrote with the angstiest ending?

That Which Is Not Done, for sure. It's the prequel story about the parents of the four turtle kids from the Children of the Forest TMNT AU I started writing with @nicollini, and since the turtles are orphans being raised by Splinter, the ending was already written for me, and I think I cried more writing this one than any other. It's far enough removed from the source material that it could read as a standalone, and there's still hope to be found in it, but it's definitely a tougher read than most of my fluff.

What's the fic you wrote with the happiest ending?

I don't think I can pick. Most of what I write tends to end on a high note (if it ends at all -- my brain rewiring itself to deal with stress and paving over the writing parts kind of put a lot on indefinite hiatus). If I have to pick, probably Little Gifts because it's also full of holiday fluff.

Do you get hate on fics?

Generally no, and not on AO3. There was one several-hundred-word hit piece on That Other Site about how my story was trash and so was I, and if I'm being honest, it's a big part of why my cross-posting to that site kind of fell off a bit.

Do you write smut? If so, what kind?

Not really. I tend to do fade-to-black if anything, because I tend to write what interests me, and my little ace heart is just way more interested in platonic soulmates than anything else. There is a ridiculous amount of platonic cuddling though.

Do you write crossovers? What's the craziest one you've written?

Generally no, with the very notable exception of the TMNT/Pacific Rim crossover series. I had also intended the big Undertale story to be a crossover with another property, but I'm not actually sure if I want to go that route any more. Time will tell (I hope).

Have you ever had a fic stolen?

I don't actually know. I think someone reposted Falling without permission once.

Have you ever had a fic translated?

Not to my knowledge.

Have you ever co-written a fic before?

Not to completion (not for lack of trying -- brains are fickle), but there are a lot of collaborations and pieces of fics that started out as co-written stories and/or roleplays and/or art that were repurposed (with permission) into stories on the TMNT side of things.

What's your all-time favorite ship?

It takes a lot for me to actually ship something, but notable ones are Shepard/Garrus, John Crichton/Aeryn Sun, and I got a huge kick out of Luz and Amity on Owl House.

What's the WIP you want to finish but doubt you ever will?

I'm not going to answer this one because I don't want to curse anything. I really do hope to tie off all the loose ends eventually. That said, the one that's a massive mashup of ALL THE TMNT AUS AT ONCE will probably stay at one chapter, just because it's so dang hard to write.

What are your writing strengths?

Before the brain break, probably dialogue, largely because it would just happen in my head and I'd frantically write to keep up. I like to think exploring relationships that don't get that much focus in canon is also something I'm pretty good at, but I may just think that because it takes up so much space in my head.

What are your writing weaknesses?

Finishing things. Curse of the ADHD brain even before the break.

Thoughts on writing dialogue in another language for a fic?

Only if necessary for the mechanics of the story, and then I try to find someone who actually speaks the language to help (and now that I'm older and wiser, hire).

First fandom you wrote for?

TMNT 2012. There had been countless stories in my head since I was a wee Fantasia, but that was the first one that wouldn't leave me alone until I wrote it down. There were just so many spaces between canon scenes that made me want to see what fit in there, and since they weren't getting explored in the show, I ended up writing Falling, and that led me to everything else.

Favorite fic you've ever written?

I can't choose. It depends on my mood. Whichever one is the one I need most to read at the time (which also happens to be my rationale for writing order).

[because-its-eurovision]

hey !! i was thinking about whether this year’s esc winner is already set in stone and the likelihood that käärijä could still manage to bag the win with a majority televote score …

i was feeling kind of nervous about it all but then i thought back to 2021 - (i haven’t watched it in a while so correct me if i’m wrong,) but did måneskin get that many high scores from the jury? I don’t think they got many 12 points there at least? (maybe just enough to get a rather average jury score i can’t remember)… they had some 12’s tho i think.

… obviously måneskin absolutely dominated the televote so i was wondering if there could be a similar situation in 2023 as to 2021, as 2021 had some hugely competitive acts and it was a nail biter up to the last minute ✨ (i’m tryna remain positive to manifest this win ahahah 💆🏻‍♀️)

This is one of those asks that lighted me up with need to answer with a thousand-word essay 😄 My take on why these cases are different and why Sweden is the winner Eurovision 2023 under the cut 👇

How to win with televote

Your arguments about Måneskin winning are correct. Italy got a set of 12 points from the Slovenian (neighbour), Croatian and Georgian juries but their average jury score was only 5,42. Both Italy 2021 and Ukraine 2022 won thanks to televote despite being only fourth in the juryvote. Here’s my explanation.

In 2021 the differences between jury favorites weren’t that big. Switzerland had 267 points, France behind them 248 points, Malta 208 points and Italy 206 points. Juries tend to go for artistic ballads but televote rarely shares that sentiment, so Switzerland’s “flop” was predictable. Malta is the biggest jury favorite in Eurovision history so their lower placing in televote wasn’t a surprise either. France did well in both components, deservedly so, and over all placed second behind Italy by only 25 points.

In 2022 Ukraine landslided the televote by getting exactly 200 points more than Moldova who came in second. They got an astounding average of 11,26 points from every country’s televote, and I don’t think we’re going to see a result like that for a while if ever. I believe that Ukraine would have won last year anyway, but understandably the war had a huge effect on televoters.

Sweden vs. Finland

Juries love Sweden. Or rather, Sweden has learnt to send entries that fit to the jury taste. These are the Swedish results from the last ten years: 2012: jury 1st, tele 1st 2013: jury 3rd, tele 18th 2014: jury 2nd, tele 3rd 2015: jury 1st, tele 3rd 2016: jury 9th, tele 6th 2017: jury 3rd, tele 8th 2018: jury 2nd, tele 23rd 2019: jury 2nd, tele 6th 2021: jury 17th, tele 11th           2022: jury 2nd, tele 4th

Eight times of ten, jury has loved Sweden more than televoters. Of those eight, they have placed Sweden in their top-3 seven times. Of those seven, they have won three times.

However, the juries' attitude towards Finland is very different. Since the juries came back in 2010, Finland has failed to make it to the final thanks to juries three times (2010, 2015, 2017) when the televote would have been enough for qualification. In comparison, here are our results from the last ten years.

2012: jury 12th, tele 12th in semi (NQ) 2013: jury 18th, tele 20th 2014 jury 7th, tele 17th 2015 jury 16th (last), tele 10th in semi (NQ) 2016 jury 12th, tele 15th in semi (NQ) 2017 jury 12th, tele 10th in semi (NQ) 2018 jury 24th, tele 21st (in semi jury 15th and tele 7th, thanks to televote 10th combined and qualified) 2019 jury 16th, tele 17th (last) in semi 2021 jury 11th, tele 4th (in semi jury 6th and tele 1st) 2022 jury 22nd, tele 16th

Why Sweden is the frontrunner

Just going into the contest, Sweden is almost guaranteed jury support. By looking at the results from previous years it is safe to say Loreen is going to be the jury winner. There is a slight possibility that we get a surprise jury winner like Austria in 2018 and North Macedonia in 2019. However, that would require there to be a clear jurybait song with great vocals, most likely a powerful ballad with innovative staging, and as far as I see, there are really no contenders for that this year. Who could surprise us? Switzerland, Spain, Estonia? Maybe Ukraine because their entry this year is so much slicker and more modern?

I'd also like to point out that in 2021 the jury winner placed sixth in the televote and in 2022 fifth. That is not going to happen in 2023. Loreen is a former Eurovision winner, fan favourite, charismatic, great singer and performer, the staging shows something never before seen on Eurovision stage (assuming they’ll bring the led screens with them to Liverpool) and Tattoo is already a huge hit so it’s not going to be too artistic or boring for the casual viewers. Sweden isn't even a country anyone would vote against for political reasons. I can’t see Loreen placing outside televote top-3. She can easily get over 300 points from the juries (average of 8,34).

Can we trust the odds?

There are years when neither the betting odds or fans have no clear idea which country is going to win, but those are in the minority. We’ve had some out-of-nowhere winners like Austria 2014 and Portugal 2017, who only begun to shine during the rehearsal week, but the way I see it that 2023 is going to be like 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2022 when the odds got the winner right weeks or months before the contest. As far as I can remember, the odds have always managed to predict a Nordic winner 😄

People have been pointing out to me that the odds might be wrong and Finland still has the chance to win despite being second in the odds. I do worry that the betting odds are failing us this year, but for a different reason. My concern is that thanks to the Käärijä hype that has been going on in Finland since January has made lot of Finns bet for their own country. In 2015 the night before the first semi final Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät was sixth in the odds to win the whole contest, only to end up in last place of their semi.

It is not often that Finland believes in their own chances in Eurovision, but when we do it sometimes makes us blind for what is realistic. Not everyone making Eurovision bets is familiar with how the juries usually vote and how that might effect the overall result. Not to mention that despite Finland being second in the odds behind Sweden, their winning chance is now 40% and ours only 15%.

Personal prediction

Please keep in mind that I’m not an expert of betting odds nor Eurovision, just a fan with a love for statistics 🙃

As for Finland, just qualifying let alone a placement in top-10 is of course an amazing result for us – hell, we’ve never even qualified more than twice in a row! My wish is that we could somehow crack into top-5 for the first time ever (2006 not taken into account). There is a possibility that we could win the televote (depending on running order) but juries are going leave Käärijä outside top-10, which means our placing is around 6th/7th in the overall results. Juries rarely care about silly upbeat songs especially if they are sung in native language and based on that I see Finland going the same route as Moldova 2022 (2nd in tele, 20th in juries, 7th combined) or Norway 2019 (1st in tele, 18th in jury, 6th combined).

Sweden wins. Loreen either wins both the juries and televote or placing in second/third in one or both of them. We might have a different jury winner (Spain? Switzerland?) or televote winner (Finland? Norway? Czechia?) but it doesn’t matter because they both flop in the other component (still placing in top-10 though).

You can quote me May 14th 2023 🙂

[itsnothingofinterest]

Hmm, you know its been a while since I did a prediction post (and I always like to have a chapter tag in my recommended tags ahead of leaks), so hows about a quick, easy prediction for what’ll go down in chapter 376 before the leaks drop? Plus a few wild guesses to spice things up.

While a jump back to UA with Shigaraki, Kurogiri, & Midoriya is possible; I think few would be surprised if we’ll be sticking to the fight in the mountains. Uraraka & Tsuyu will continue trying to talk to Toga (especially since they can do little else now) while Endeavor will...probably continue failing to talk to Touya right to his face. Like I’m really just imagining Dabi verbally tearing into his dad and Endeavor just shutting down and taking it; since that’s been the pattern so far and Enji’s really bad at changing his behaviour even now.

Meanwhile Hawks will be internally panicking up a storm between Twice & Dabi being here, though I’m sure he’ll try to keep a cool head. Also since he’s set on repeating his greatest mistakes in front of a crowd this time, I’m hoping he’ll finally do something to really ruin everyone’s view of him. The only question is how; as under these circimstances, there are two options.

He could try to murder Toga right in front of Uaraka just as she’s trying to talk to her, causing her to reflect on everything Toga’s said about the world rejecting her and her close friend getting killed. This would leave quite the ugly impression of hero society on Uraraka, but would also vastly mprove her ability to reach out to Toga.

Alternatively, with his hero in trouble, Hawks could instead turn to attacking Dabi to try to get Endeavor to fight and beat him. But being that he’s right in the middle of his supposed redemption arc, this could result in the opposite, but still positive, response; here is a known killer going after Enji’s son, and Enji’s only redeeming quality has always been his capacity as a hero. So if, in the heat of the moment, Endeavor’s body moved on its own to turn on Hawks and save Dabi; well I think that would be a very interesting turn of events with some fun ramifications to explore.

And during all of this, AFO could and possibly would just be standing around looking ugly & going “Luigi wins by doing nothing.”

Also just as a for-laughs real shot in the dark theory (which is saying something after suggesting Endeavor turning on Hakws), I’m gonna suggest that the chapter will end on a scene change to the Jaku fight with Machia, Kirishima, & Mina. Reason being: that fight seems like its also supposed to be important like the fight for Kurogiri was, so we’ll probably get around to it before arc’s end.

[ewanmitchellcrumbs]

Happy hols, Ange and everyone else. ❄️🎄🎄🎄❄️

Finally got home and watched Saltburn and I have thoughts.

SPOILERS (?) below :

First of all, I didn’t feel Michael was creepy or anything. Sure he was sort of weird at times, and also possibly annoying , but the one character I genuinely disliked was Farleigh , and of course, Oliver.

Keoghan is amazing at his craft — you can feel the crazy radiating off him, despite Emerald’s + hair and makeup team’s efforts to make him seem normal and pitiable. I could go on and on about his face, it’s so. ..expressive and so unique.

A lot of Oliver Quick’s behavior isn’t surprising , because well…let’s just say — men have a very predictable manifestation of behavior and sexuality when it’s delves into obsession, particularly with other men. (I’m saying men here because this is about Oliver and Felix and the story built around and between them vs if it had been with Venetia or Elspeth etc).

I’m surprised Fennell didn’t turn it up a few notches and make it worse (more shocking) , but to each their own.

You feel bad for Michael because he does end up alone, as is seen during the scene with end of year exams. But frankly, he dodged a bullet, loser that he is. Although I wonder - would his crazy have come out as a result of Oliver’s crazy?

(P.S : has anyone gif-fed the end of year exam scene with Ewan in a suit , yummmmm. Also love his little teef, 🐰, they’re so cute)

holly jolly and all that 🎅🏻🎄🎅🏻🎄🎁🎁🎁

I think Michael and Felix are the only two genuine people in the entire film. I started out hating Felix, but you quickly realise he has a heart of gold, but his privilege has made him a bit thoughtless.

I think Elspeth ended up being my favourite character, she’s so funny!

Barry’s talent is insane. His performance had me gripped. I spotted the twist from a mile off though. I said when I first saw it that you have to be working class yourself to predict it, but didn’t elaborate further as I didn’t want to spoil it. Now most people have seen it, I will.

Straightaway, when Oliver says his parents are dealers/addicts, I thought “you’re not really poor”. And that’s because it’s a stereotypical middle class belief that the working classes are all drug addicts, anyone that is genuinely working class knows better and would not describe themselves or their family as such.

@barbieaemond gif’ed the scene of Michael coming out of the exams.

Hope you’ve had a lovely festive break so far!

[intheshadowofwar]

2 July 2023

The Death Drill

Amiens 2 July 2023

We must return again to the Hindenberg Line.

I mentioned earlier that the Hindenberg Line was eventually cracked. We’re still not there yet - that’ll be a discussion for tomorrow. I have, in fact, been very deliberate in waiting for that moment. As I mentioned on the 28th, the Hindenburg Line was a perfect defensive position, and one that the Allies encountered with some surprise during the Arras offensive. It did not blunt British ambitions - it simply couldn’t be allowed to. To the south, on the Chemin des Dames, General Robert Nivelle’s French offensive was drowning in blood, and Haig had to try and keep the pressure off of them. The Line would have to be attacked. Thus, the tragedy of Bullecourt.

Bullecourt - and given the black humour of the Tommies and the Diggers, I’m surprised it was never corrupted into ‘Bullet Court’ - was to be attacked by Hubert Gough’s Fifth Army in a novel way. There would be no preparatory barrage. The 4th Australian Division would attack by surprise with the support of tanks. In the event, when the attack was launched on the 11th of April 1917, barely any tanks arrived - they almost all broken down, and the few lumbering beasts that made it to the starting point were soon knocked out. Worse, the loud engines alerted the Germans. The Australians advanced into a funnel, covered on all sides by interlocking fire - some positions were taken but then lost by a fierce German counterattack. Three thousand men became casualties, and more men were taken prisoner here than in any other Australian battle. To add one final insult to injury, Gough, convincing himself that he had an exploitable breakthrough, sent an Indian cavalry brigade into the killing field, causing yet more useless deaths.

Something changed in the AIF after First Bullecourt. Gough’s reputation with them never recovered (and indeed, he was despised by pretty much everybody who had the misfortune of being under his command), even though some of the blame for the catastrophe should also be laid at the feet of Birdwood and some of the battalion and brigade commanders. The Australians would take a long time to trust tanks again, but in particular, a large part of the AIF lost faith in the old British Army. Most of this loss of faith was directed towards the generals and the staff, but Bill Gammage’s seminal work The Broken Years indicates that a great many men lost their respect for the ordinary Tommy too. The British, it was said, had let them down; they had no stomach, they couldn’t fight, they’d left the Australians in the lurch. (In fact, poor staff work had led the British 62nd Division to attack too early, with predictably bloody results.) I remember reading Gammage’s book a while ago, and some of the accounts felt like a few Diggers would have rather dug their bayonet into a British Tommy than a German soldier. Always be suspicious when you hear people talking about the brotherhood between allies.

(The British stereotype of the Australians was that they were overpaid and underdisciplined, and that they had everything you could ever want but still moaned about it, so lets not pretend this doesn’t go both ways.)

That tragic field of Bullecourt was our first stop of the day. None of the Australian divisions chose here to be their memorial, for reasons that are probably obvious, but a memorial was put in place to the battle in the 1990s. It depicts a Digger on a cairn, starting out towards the battlefront and the site of the Hindenburg Line. He looks almost casual, wearing his slouch hat with his rifle slung over his shoulder - yet there’s a somber weariness to his features. I don’t think there was any deep meaning to this figure when it was sculptured - more likely the DVA just said ‘STATUE PLEASE’ - so it’s interesting how the mind invents them when looking at statues like this.

We carried on from Bullecourt to Peronne, where the memorial to the 2nd Division stands on the slopes of Mont St. Quentin. It was here that the 2nd Division seized the heights from the Germans and held it in the face of several ferocious counterattacks, an achievement Fourth Army General Sir Henry Rawlinson believed was the ‘greatest military achievement of the war.’ (I actually disagree with Rawlinson on this, but that’s another thing to be discussed tomorrow.) The 2nd Division’s memorial is actually a replacement - the original might have been the most ‘metal’ of Australia’s war memorials, depiciting a soldier thrusting his bayonet into a Prussian eagle. When the Nazis came through in 1940, they spared most other war memorials - but they destroyed this one. It was replaced in the 1970s with a soldier looking down in thought. It’d diplomatic, and probably more appropriate - but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have a sneaky desire to see the old one.

We continued into Peronne, and after lunch went into the Historiale de la Grand Guerre - the Museum of the Great War. This has been built up for me for years, the brainchild of Annette Becker and our spiritual liege Jay Winter. They are, of course, no longer with the museum as far as I know. I think this may be to it’s detriment, because the main feeling I felt here was a sense of disappointment.

This museum is still worth visiting, and I don’t know if it would ever have lived up to my expectations. Laying the uniforms and equipment at the viewer’s feet, as if laying in state, is not only artistically genius but surprisingly practical in allowing you to actually see what these artifacts are. There’s a whole section on the work of Otto Dix, a soldier who made print art of his experiences after the war. I won’t include any photos of these pictures, because while Dix’ works are amazing and everyone should see them, they are also, pardon my French, fucking horrifying.(The Nazis, being big on the whole war as national regeneration thing, banned them.) It does its best to cover as many perspectives on the war as possible, and while the pacifist bent here is obvious, it doesn’t get in the way of being a museum too much.

That’s a bit of a shame, though, because it’s the ‘being a museum’ category that causes it to fall down for me. There are so many errors that somebody really ought to have caught - a tunic of the Leicestershire Regiment is mislabelled as a Coldstream Guards tunic, which would be forgivable were it not for the giant ‘Leicestershire’ badges on the collar, clearly visible to the public. A tunic is described as belonging to a ‘Captain’ in the ‘Derbyshires’ - not only does it belong to a Lieutenant, there was no Derbyshire Regiment. That region was covered by the Sherwood Foresters. I’m sure this all sounds like rivet counting, but these are errors that are easily noticeable and easily corrected, and they’re in the first room. If they’re making basic factual errors in the first section of the museum, why should I, as a member of the public, trust what they say in the next? (And before someone asks if they simply mistranslated the name of the rank, lieutenant is a French word. The word for lieutenant in French is lieutenant. I don’t know how a museum of war could make this mistake.)

This annoyed me, but what got me really cross was a placard about the Hundred Days Offensives at the end of the war.

‘Without suffering any great defeat, the German Army was forced…’

Hold on, what?! Not only did the German Army suffer a great defeat, it suffered nothing but great defeats. What about Second Marne? Amiens? The St Quentin Canal, the Canal du Nord, the Meuse-Argonne Offensive? The Germans were defeated decisively and consistently on the field of battle, and I know a museum with a pacifist bent probably doesn’t want to throw around words like ‘victory’ in relation to war, when it comes to the Hundred Days, you have two choices. You have the history or the myth. The history was that Germany was decisively defeated. The myth was that it wasn’t. The myth is that the war was ended by the civilians - the socialists - while Germany was still capable of fighting. The myth is that Germany was betrayed by the socialists - and their perceived masters.

This is the genesis of the stab-in-the-back theory, one of the first steps on the road to the Holocaust. I know they didn’t intend for it to look like this, but that is what it looks like. You don’t have to necessarily say the Allies won, but you absolutely do have to say the Germans lost, and lost decisively. We cannot allow any academic or popular wriggle room for this antisemtic theory. (And for the record, I think you absolutely can emphasise this from a pacifist perspective. Talk about the suffering inflicted by the naval blockade, or the casualties of the Hundred Days. Just… don’t repeat antisemitic talking points.)

Sorry, I got a little bit angry there. Let’s talk about something a little more humorous - the cognitive dissonance one experiences when they leave this museum, Dix’ paintings still on their mind, and walk into a gift shop that’s selling faux-LEGO tanks, plastic helmets and poor quality hoodies with little Anzacs and Poilus shaking hands on them. It’s something of a mental whiplash, like I felt when I went into Rise of Skywalker expecting to have fun and then didn’t.

We went from there to Delville Wood, where the South African National Memorial is - a great shock, as I wasn’t aware they had one at all. The South Africans today are most known for fighting in East and Central Africa, particularly the running guerilla war with von Lettow-Vorbeck (in which 80% of their black African labourers got malaria and died.) Yet they did send a few battalions - all white men, of course - to the Western Front, where they suffered greatly in battles around here. The beautiful and sinister at the same time. For the most part, it looks a lot like you’d expect a First World War memorial to look - white stone, lists of the missing, inscriptions of battles - but over the arch in the centre is a message to all visitors - ‘Their ideal is our legacy. Their sacrifice is our inspiration.’

It seems a bit generic, but in the context of the Apatheid South Africa that raised this memorial, it’s downright chilling. What ideal are they talking about? We can’t exactly change the meaning of it - it’s ‘their’ ideal, not ours. For the first time, I found the white wall of the missing, amplified by the afternoon sun, to be deeply uncomfortable.

On a more positive note, the site has a small museum - and it’s free! If the memorial hasn’t been updated since the end of Aparteid, at least the museum has, with a frank discussion of the service and suffering of black South Africans during the First World War alongside the typical histories of battles and kit. What particularly stood out to me was the account of the sinking of the SS Mendi in a collision off the Isle of Wight, carrying black labourers to Europe. Oral tradition preserves the last speech of Reverend Wauchope Dyobha on the deck of the sinking ship. This was reproduced at the museum, and I’ll give you an excerpt.

“Brothers, we are drilling the death drill. I, a Xhosa, say you are my brothers. Swazis, Pondos, Basutos, we die like brothers. We are the sons of Africa. Raise your war cries, brothers, for though they made us leave our assegais in the kraal, our voices are left with our bodies.”

824 labourers were aboard the Mendi. Over 600 were lost to the sea. Reverend Dyobha was among them. They lived as servants of an uncaring empire, but I like to think they died as free men.

We carried on from there to Amiens, where I now have a glorious view of it’s beautiful concrete bus station. I saw a few memorials on my way to grab dinner, and I’ll try to take my camera out to get some pictures tomorrow evening if I have time, but I can’t promise anything. For tomorrow, we go to Villers-Bretennaux.

We’ve seen the tasteful ways Canada and South Africa use the spaces around their memorials. Surely, Australia would be just as tasteful, right?

Right?

[ossifer]

Hey! Hope your day is going well :) For the AO3 wrap up: 19, 27, and 30??

19. What's one pairing you want to explore next year?

Chaseprice! I recently started reading We Shall All Be Healed by Mogatrat and I swear every chapter has been steadily cranking my passing interest in Chaseprice into overdrive. I love friction and tension between characters, I love Chloe, I love Victoria, and I really wanna come up with a nice Chaseprice concept and write it at some point.

27. What do you listen to while writing?

To name a few artists: chloe moriondo, renforshort, The Aces, The Mountain Goats, and the occasional bit of Hozier.

The only thing all those artists have in common is that their songs either make me feel strongly, have lyrics that I always wanna use in fic titles, or appeal to my urge to listen to sad or yearning shit while writing romance lol. I think the only consistency here is that I avoid more high-tempo stuff because it always ends up distracting me?

30. Biggest surprise while writing this year?

Making friends through it.

I’m a very anxious person: my first foray into writing was a fic I intended to immediately orphan so I could watch it anonymously from afar instead of having a name associated with it, I wanted to write but hated the idea of being known, but I ended up deciding against doing that. That was back in March this year.

I ended up getting a very positive reception to that first fic, in fact it’s still the most popular thing I’ve posted, and that made me drop the idea of writing fics just to orphan them after posting altogether.

I’m now sitting at 14 fics and as a result of my writing have met a number of lovely people I wouldn’t have otherwise. People that I know consider me a friend, even though sometimes I still struggle to use that word myself. Never could’ve predicted that.

[postgamecontent]

'8-Bit Adventures 2' Switch Review

I'm a bit tired of love letters. I'm not saying that love letters ought not to exist or anything. People can and should make what they want. But as a player and a critic and all of that, I'm getting somewhat exhausted with games that "pay homage to the classic 8- and 16-bit RPGs". Some of them are too ironic. Some too on-the-nose. Most of them are so busy trying to offer tribute to their objects of adoration that they forget to be their own thing. That's what I was expecting from 8-Bit Adventures 2, a sequel to a game I have yet to play.

I won't say that it completely bucked that prediction, but 8-Bit Adventures 2 is actually really good. It almost makes me wish that some of its more obvious winks to other games had been left out, because it makes it occasionally read as an imitation rather than the legit experience that it is as a whole. What I'll say first is that if you're in the same boat as I am, you don't need to worry about playing the previous game to understand this one. It follows up on that game, but it does a decent enough job of catching you up on what you need to know. I will probably go back and play that first game now, though.

A hero has gone missing, and the search for him kicks off this quest. It turns out he has fallen prey to something called a Glitch, and he's not quite himself as a result. It seems clear that if the Glitch is left unchecked, the entire world could be at risk. That Glitch has a story to it, and it makes for an interesting character in its own right. Indeed, if I were to highlight one aspect of 8-Bit Adventures 2 above all others, it's the character writing. This game's dialog is a pleasure to read, and while the plot sometimes wavers the moment-to-moment story remains engaging all throughout. It's a very sincere game, and it shows.

In terms of gameplay, not many molds are being broken here. Battles are turn-based and allow for three active party members at once. Similarly to Final Fantasy X, you can swap party members in and out during combat, and you'll often want to do that during more difficult encounters. You'll have access to a basic fight command with three different levels, trading accuracy for power as desired. You also get a number of additional abilities and magic that are tied to AP/MP. Defending not only lessens the damage you take but also restores some HP, which is a fun strategic choice. Eventually you'll unlock Chrono Trigger-esque combo moves, and there's one party member that beeps to its own beat just to keep you on your toes.

Things outside of battle follow the usual traditions, with dungeons that have treasures and visible monsters to get into scraps with. Some puzzles here and there spice things up. You have towns to visit, a world to explore, and lots of gear to upgrade with. There are, perhaps befitting a game aimed at evoking a particular era of RPGs, some very clever bits that help break up the usual loop. It threads the needle between adhering to traditions and doing some new things very nicely.

The solid writing even extends to the NPCs, to the point that I enjoyed my usual process of talking to everyone. One thing that really surprised me is the length of the game. I'm used to this kind of game running in the ten to twenty hour range, but this game runs way past thirty hours. Even more surprising is that it doesn't drag. It ramps up at a good speed and seems to know when it needs to throw in curveballs to keep things from getting repetitive. It's a well-paced ride that I think most RPG fans will enjoy.

Visually it is more "8-bit in your memories" than actually 8-bit, but it's consistent and I think doesn't egregiously betray the vibe it's going for. I really enjoyed the enemy designs in the battles, as they're detailed, cool, and very much old-school. Probably more 16-bit than 8-bit, but I'm already getting tired of being a pedant about that so I'm not going to bring it up again. The soundtrack sticks to the rules and it actually rules. Very good tunes in this game, which I think is vital to a good RPG.

Overall, I was genuinely surprised by how good 8-Bit Adventures 2 was. I've played tons of RPGs, and thanks to my work as a Kemcologist I have devoured more generic RPGs than any human ever should. I initially feared that this game would be one more, so imagine my delight when it turned out to be one of the more satisfying indie games in the genre that I've played. If you like this genre, I highly recommend 8-Bit Adventures 2.

Switch Score: 4.5/5

[itsawhumpsideblog]

For America's Bright Starry Banner, Book 1

If you'd like to be added to a tag list, let me know! Content notes: sad goodbyes, past physical abuse and resulting injuries The lyric that starts this chapter is from the song that inspired Patrick's character. It's "Honest Pat Murphy of the Irish Brigade", another one with a dozen variants. This is the one I grew up hearing, because we had this tape in our car (back in the stone age when cars had tape decks- and I'm not as old as that makes me sound). https://youtu.be/LKVk8ScYA-w

"Says Pat to his mother, "It looks strange to see

Brothers fighting in such a queer manner,

But I'll fight till I die if I never get killed

For America's bright, starry banner."

~Honest Pat Murphy of the Irish Brigade

Our lives in New York were hard sometimes, as Patrick's mother had hinted in her letter of so long ago that they would be, but they were good, too. I got work with Patrick at the docks, unloading ships, and in a way it was like old times. We spoke more English than we had at home, but luckily we had found rooms in the same building where the Murphys lived and now, instead of running next door, we were forever running up and down stairs between apartments, which wasn't so different at all.

It was the fall of 1860 and Patrick and I were 17 when I really became aware of the politics of my new home country. I had gotten into the habit of reading the newspaper over the summer. If I managed to have a few extra pennies I bought it from one of the newsboys on the street, or scrounged old editions out of the garbage when money was too tight. There was talk of rebellion in the southern states if Abraham Lincoln was elected. I wasn't overly concerned with the politics of the thing, but Patrick followed them closely.

"If the South secedes, Micheál, there's going to be a war," he said very seriously one evening.

"They won't, though," I replied. "It'll never work to just leave a country like that- think of Ireland and the British."

Patrick just shrugged. "It worked for the Americans once before," he pointed out, "And it could happen again, if Lincoln's elected."

"Do you suppose we'd have to go in the army?" I asked.

Patrick shrugged again. "Don't know. I think I'd have to go. I've been here too long I suppose," and he laughed. "I don't think I could watch the country fall to pieces now."

Patrick, as usual, was right. Lincoln was elected that year and was inaugurated March 4th of 1861, just four days before Patrick's 18th birthday. Patrick was immensely satisfied with the outcome and considered the inauguration his birthday present.

As Patrick had predicted, the Southern States had begun to secede right after the election and just a week after the inauguration, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas were calling themselves the Confederate States of America and had written their own constitution.

Everything happened fast from then on. In April, the Union arsenal at Fort Sumter, in South Carolina, was fired on by the "Confederate States of America" and the war began in earnest. My birthday was later that week, and Patrick joked that his birthday present might have been the inauguration, but that mine was the war. Of course, I thought, it stood to reason that Patrick would have that luck.

Naturally we weren't content to stay home and miss the excitement, and one afternoon Patrick and I left work and went to join the militia.

We found ourselves in a long line of men standing in front of the recruiter's table as the recruiter, who looked rather surprised to see such a gathering, went through the line methodically, asking for birth dates, names, heights, hair and eye colors. We were nearly to the front of the line when all of a sudden Patrick, who had been lounging and looking bored, stood straight up.

"Hey!" he called. "What the devil do you think you're doing, boy?" I looked curiously to the young man stepping up to the table, and realized with a start that it was Declan. There was fire in Patrick's eyes as he marched to the head of the line and collared his brother.

"What the devil are you playing at?" he asked again. Declan looked sullen. His jaw stiffened in the same stubborn manner Patrick should have recognized in himself, and he burst out,

"I'm enlisting and you're not going to stop me."

"Of course I am," Patrick insisted. He turned to the recruiter. "He's only sixteen," he explained and gave Declan a much more gentle push towards the door. "Go home, laddie. I'll be there soon."

"Fine," Declan spat and left.

Patrick and I looked uneasily at each other as he joined me again in line. At last it was our chance. Patrick stepped up to the table and the recruiter looked him up and down.

"Name?"

"Patrick Murphy," Patrick said confidently, his familiar accent ringing through the room as the rest of the line looked on. Something about Patrick made other people stop and watch him.

"Age?"

"18 this past month." This passed without comment as the recruiter wrote down the information.

"Where were you born?"

Patrick gave the name of our village. "In Ireland," he clarified.

"Occupation?"

"Dockworker."

"Hair?"

"Red," Patrick laughed.

"Eyes?"

"Green."

"Height?"

"Near six feet."

"Can you write?"

Patrick nodded.

"Sign here," the recruiter said tersely, and with a flourish Patrick picked up the pen and signed his name. Then it was my turn. We went through the same routine.

"Name?"

"Michael O'Sullivan," I said and glared at Patrick when he laughed. He was like Mother- unwilling to get used to the Americanization of my name. He never called me anything other than Micheál. The recruiter, however accepted my answer but when I stated truthfully that I was 18 he looked at me strangely. Shaking his head as though unable to believe it, he wrote that down too and moved on.

"Where were you born?" he asked me, in the bored tones of one who had asked the same questions a hundred times. I answered with the name of the same village as Patrick and he looked at us more closely for a moment before moving on.

"Occupation?"

"I work at the docks."

"Hair?"

"Black."

"Eyes?"

"Blue."

"Height?"

"Five feet, nine inches."

"Can you write?"

"Sure, I can." I signed my name as Patrick had done and we were officially enlisted.

When Patrick and I arrived home, not much later, we were the property of Abraham Lincoln himself for the next three months. We had our orders to report in two days to board a train to, as far as we could guess, march south to end the rebellion in time to be home when our enlistment ran out.

We were in high spirits until I opened the door of my apartment and realized that nobody was inside. A little more cautiously, we went up to the Murphys apartment and opened the door to find our families sitting there waiting. Declan looked daggers at us both as we came through the door and our mothers had clearly been crying. Maura was staring determinedly at her sewing and Bridget and Colleen were nowhere to be found.

Patrick's Da, who had taken it upon himself to be father to my sisters and me as well, was staring out the dirty window to the street and when he turned and we saw the look on his face, I felt Patrick brace himself for the impact.

"What have you done?" Mr. Murphy said in a terribly quiet voice, and I heard Patrick gulp air.

"I've enlisted," he said more steadily than I would have done. I added, too loudly in the silent, still room,

"So have I." I heard my mother sob and out of the corner of my eye I saw Maura brush her hand quickly across her eyes.

"Micheál, I've lost your Da," Mother burst out. "I can't afford to lose you, too."

"Mother, nobody's going to die," I protested. "I'm not, sure, and Patrick's not either, so don't worry!"

She shook her head. "You can't get out of this, can you?"

"No!" I exclaimed. I was about to say more when Patrick poked me. I quickly closed my mouth and Mother just shook her head and that was the end of the conversation. Somehow, no more was said about the war that evening, or about our enlistment.

In fact, nothing much was said about it until the morning we were going to leave. I didn't sleep much the night before and when I woke for breakfast with Mother and my sisters, the mood was sullen and sad. Very little was said over the meal, until I rose to go.

"I should-" I began awkwardly and Mother began to cry. I could see from their red eyes and the way Bridget wiped her nose that it had been a long night for my family.

Maura came around the table and gave me a hug. I realized with a start that though she was still four years older than I, she was now much shorter.

"You be careful, Micheál," she said. "And write us." She choked up and hugged me tighter. I took a long look at Bridget, too, as she hugged me. She was taller than Maura, like I was, though she was only 16, and I was suddenly sorry that I was going to miss the next three months with them. Surely it wouldn't be any more than that, and three months wasn't so long, I thought, to comfort myself, and at last turned to Mother.

I had been most worried about saying goodbye to Mother, but when the moment came she held up well and I was relieved.

"Be careful, my son," she told me and then, kissing me, added simply, "Until we meet again, Micheál." She held me at arms length and looked at me so tenderly that I had to look away or start crying myself and after a moment Mother smoothed my hair back and kissed my forehead one last time before she let me go.

I couldn’t make myself speak and I waved and tried to smile as I walked out the door. I felt better when I met Patrick on the street, however. I could see that we weren't the only ones saying goodbye to our families at that moment, and the flying flags and crowds of people in the streets restored my spirits. Just like that, I was excited for the adventure which I was sure we were about to have.

When I think back on it, I realize: We had no idea.

After hours of hurrying up in order to wait, we were at last marched through the streets of my beloved adopted city to the train station to go south. Patrick and I marched side by side, grinning. We were about to start off on the adventure of a lifetime. It was crowded when we got to the train, and Patrick and I milled around with the rest of the newly-minted soldiers waiting to board it.

Near us, a woman with an accent from Dublin was tearfully bidding her son goodbye.

"Be careful, Teddy," she begged, wiping at her eyes with a handkerchief. "Come home safe to me, you hear?"

"I will, Mother," the boy replied, sounding embarrassed. She hugged him and then he submitted to hugs from a group of girls, apparently his sisters, and a very small brother. At last, after second hugs from most of the sisters and a third from the little boy, he tore himself away from his family to a chorus of, "Bye, Teddy! Write us! Come home soon!" I grinned at the look of relief on his face.

Patrick and I, when we finally stepped onto the train, found a set of benches that were empty and next to a window, looking over the platform where crowds of people waved to their loved ones about to leave for the war. We sat next to each other and relaxed at last, but we had only been there for a minute or two when a strangely familiar voice said from my elbow, "Micheál?" and I turned around in surprise. A tall, skinny young man was standing next to me, running his fingers through his brown hair.

"Jack!" I cried, jumping up to shake his hand. "Where did you come from?"

"I could ask you the same," he laughed and then looked at Patrick, sitting on the bench and watching us curiously. "And is this Patrick, himself, the famous Patrick Murphy?"

"That I am," Patrick grinned, standing to shake Jack's hand.

"Patrick," I said, "Jack Lynch, seasick all the way from Ireland to the New World. Jack, Patrick Murphy, the apple thief." They had both heard stories of each other, and laughed. Jack sat down across from us and after a second another boy sat down beside him.

"I didn't think I'd ever make it on this train," the boy said, in an Irish accent like we all had. It was the boy from the platform, the one with all the sisters and he looked around after a second, as if he'd just noticed us for the first time. "You don't mind me sitting down here, do you?" he asked. We shook our heads, amused. I liked him already.

"Name's Ted McGrath," he said, pronouncing it the Irish way- McGraw- and again there were handshakes all around. We introduced ourselves and settled back into talking about the war, and what we expected from it, and about all the heroic things we planned to do.

"I tell you, we'll have those rebels running back down South in a week- at most," Ted declared. "When they let us Irish boys at it, we'll show them down in Dixie how things are to be." We laughed and agreed. All President Lincoln really needed was us.

"They'll promote us, sure," Jack chipped in.

"Captain Patrick Murphy," Patrick mused and nodded. "I like the way it sounds. With Lieutenant Micheál O'Suilleabhain by my side."

"Michael," I said automatically and the three of them laughed and shook their heads.

"You can take the lad out of Ireland, but you can't take Ireland out of the lad," Patrick joked. Jack and Ted laughed and I rolled my eyes. It was then that we noticed the boy standing quietly at Ted's elbow, looking uncomfortable.

"Can we help you with something?" Patrick asked kindly and the boy colored up.

"Begging pardon," he said with an accent that matched Patrick's but was thicker- perhaps he had come more recently from Ireland- "but could I sit down? The other seats all look to be full."

"Of course," Patrick said, gesturing to the seat opposite himself, next to the window. "Ted, Jack, shove over and give the lad some room to breathe."

The younger boy looked grateful and sat as far in the corner as he could squeeze himself.

"And what's your name?" Patrick asked the newcomer.

"Rory Coleman," he answered, ducking his head.

"If you don't mind me asking, Rory, how old are you?" Ted wanted to know.

"Near eighteen," Rory replied in that frightened voice.

"How near eighteen?" Ted asked dryly.

"Nearer seventeen," Rory amended, blushing and then when Ted raised an eyebrow, he admitted, "Sixteen."

"That I'd believe," Ted said, satisfied.

"Will you tell anyone?" Rory whispered, looking around anxiously.

"Not a soul, right lads?" Jack assured him, looking seriously at us. We nodded, but Patrick looked uncomfortable.

"I've a brother your age, Rory," he said. "I didn't let him enlist and I know you didn't ask me but I think you'd be better off at home."

Rory frowned a little and, blushing, worked up the courage to ask, "What makes you think that?"

Patrick looked startled. "You're too young for the army, that's all. We'd all be better off at home, only the rebels have started this and it's up to us to put a stop to it. But you're too young. We're all of enlistment age."

Jack colored a bit and chuckled. That was when I remembered that he wasn't eighteen yet and I laughed, too.

Rory shook his head and looked down at his feet. "I wouldn't be better off at home," he said, so firmly that we let the matter drop.

We slowly went back to joking around, with Rory sitting quietly watching us and laughing sometimes at something we said. Soon enough we had talked ourselves out and exhaustion overtook us. Ted, to our amazement, leaned over and folded his arms on his knees and, laying his head on them, went to sleep. Rory leaned against the side of the car and watched the distance speed by. Jack whistled under his breath. I looked around at everyone else in the car and wallowed in boredom.

We reached the train depot at Washington, D.C before dark and were herded out to set up tents.

"All right, men," the officer in charge shouted at us. "You'll collect your blankets and a day's rations and sleep here tonight. Tomorrow you'll get your uniforms and start learning to be real soldiers. Dismissed!"

We collected what we needed for the night and set up next to each other, the five of us in two tents. We talked about how difficult it would be to sleep, and we were right. The ground was hard no matter how I lay on it, and everywhere I tried to put my head there seemed to be a rock. I could hear the other boys tossing and turning, and it was hours before I was ready to be asleep.

Then, the next morning, we were awoken for the first time by reveille. It was a sound I would get used to someday, but on that morning, waking up fully dressed and with a red mark where my face had been pressed against a rock all night, I couldn't remember when I had been more exhausted. It was worse than my long hours at the docks- at least in New York, or at home in Ireland, I had come back to a real house at night and slept in relative warm comfort.

I got up anyway and hauled Patrick out of the tent. At the sound of the bugle he had merely smiled in his sleep and turned over.

"Wake up," I grumbled at him, shaking his shoulder. "Come on, lazy."

After a moment his eyes opened and after another split second they focused and he sat up quickly, then stood and left the tent.

"Well," he commented, stretching, "that wasn't so bad."

"Speak for yourself." Around us, men were coming out of their tents, yawning in the crisp spring air and stretching. Fires were started and coffee was put on to boil. After a moment, the flaps of the tent next to us were thrown open and our new friends made their way out.

Jack looked around at the field full of white tents and campfires and grinned.

"We've made it boys," he said and Ted, stretching his arms over his head and yawning, nodded. Rory, following behind them, said nothing, a shy shadow, but he gazed with those solemn eyes out over the tents and gave a satisfied nod.

Soon, our fire was started and we were eating the hard biscuits we had been issued, and drinking some coffee that Ted had made. We were just waking up enough to start wondering how we would know what to do next, when a bugle call was sounded and a sergeant came through yelling, another sound we would soon get used to.

"That means fall in! And that means you, and you and you," he informed us at a roar, shoving men into place and kicking dirt on a fire that one man had been putting fresh wood on.

"You've got to get going, laddie!" the Sergeant replied to the stunned look on the man's face. "You've no time for that! We've things to do!" The man must have decided that it would be futile to argue; he stood up and headed off with the rest of us, shaking his head.

As you can imagine, our attempts to fall into some kind of formation were not met with approval.

"What the hell kind of a formation is that? You're in the army now, not back on the farm digging potatoes! Stand up straight there! You, get your hands out of your pockets!" Ted moved his hands to his side, looking furtive and the Sergeant laughed. He paused for a moment in front of the five of us, who stood shoulder to shoulder. "Mary, Mother of God," he sneered. "They've enlisted children." He looked strong Ted, the tallest of us, up and down. "Do you shave?"

"Yessir, I've been shaving a few years now," Ted replied. The sergeant shook his head. 

"How about you?" he barked at Rory, and Ted moved closer as if to step between them. "Stand still at attention!" the Sergeant snapped, and turned back to Rory. "Well? Do you?"

"Yes-yessir," Rory stammered quietly, probably lying. The Sergeant snorted, but he left Rory alone. Harsh, he could be. Cruel, he wasn't and it didn't take a particularly discerning mind to sense Rory's fear.

"You likely looking lads are going to be fitted out in uniforms like real soldiers," the Sergeant yelled. "You'll go over to that tent and pick up one of everything they've got and then you'll trade until you've got what fits you. And if those bastards at the quartermaster's give you any trouble, you tell them Sergeant O'Malley'll have their hides and if they still gives you trouble, you come find me and I'll deal with it myself and you can be sure there'll be no more trouble, then. Right! Dismissed!"

Reeling slightly from the ordeal and trying to figure out what to make of our Sergeant, we meandered over to the quartermaster's tent. There was a wait, and then each of us was loaded down with shirts, drawers, pants, a pair of shoes, blankets and the like; everything we could carry and possibly more- Ted ended up carrying Rory's shoes after he dropped them for the third time- and we were sent back to our tents to put them on.

With no women around for miles, we changed right there in front of our tents, exchanging brown trousers for sky-blue and civilian hats for army issue caps. Patrick struggled with a shirt twice the size he needed, while Jack laughed over a pair of pants that came past his knees, but not much farther. We looked around after a moment and realized that Rory was nowhere to be seen.

"Rory, lad?" Jack called, looking around, and from inside their tent a voice answered,

"I'm in here."

"Why?" Ted asked, but Rory said simply,

"I'll be out when I'm dressed." He could evade a question better than anyone I had ever met.

"But why-" Ted began and pulled the tent flap back and looked in.

Then he stopped cold. His eyes widened and, curious, we gathered around too and one by one fell silent.

Rory stood inside the tent in his army pants- he had been lucky enough to find a pair that fit him, more or less,- but with his shirt off. He was staring at the ground, but we were staring at him. We could see across his back and up his shoulders, and disappearing into the waist of his trousers, a web of fine pink scars and a few open red cuts. His right shoulder was a massive blue bruise and there was a healing cut on his chest.

Ted stepped over and put a huge hand on Rory's shoulder. "Lad, what happened?" he asked quietly, a tone of voice we had not yet heard from him.

Rory looked up then, meeting Patrick's eyes. "I told you I wouldn't be better off at home," he repeated in a shamed whisper. Patrick just nodded.

"How old is that cut?" Jack asked. Rory shrugged.

"Maybe a week, now. The cuts on my back are newer."

"He should see the doctor," Jack said sounding shocked. "Come on, Rory. Let's go find him," he continued in a kind tone. Rory shook his head.

"I'll be fine- I always am," he said.

"How can you march like that?" Patrick demanded and Rory shrugged again.

"I've learned, is all," he said, his face burning, and we never got a chance to press the issue because the call came again to fall in and we were bound to obey. Ted, being Ted, took matters into his own hands.

Before Rory could put his shirt on again, the Sergeant could be heard standing right outside our tent bellowing.

"Sir!" Ted called, stepping out of the tent. He had Rory by the shoulder still, and pulled him along. "Sir, Coleman can't keep drilling, sir."

"Why not?" the sergeant asked absently, and Ted simply turned Rory forcefully around. I half thought that Rory would faint; his ears had gone totally red and he was biting his lip. I had never seen anyone look so ashamed, and to this day the sight has never been equaled in my experience.

"I'm inclined to agree with you," the sergeant said evenly. "All right, Coleman, go see the doctor about that and come back to duty when he gives his approval." With that, the sergeant walked briskly off and we scrambled to gather our gear and follow him- all except Rory.

We drilled late into the afternoon, and by the time we were finished I was nearly asleep on my feet. We went back to our tents when we were dismissed, grateful not to be on guard duty that night, and ate dinner quickly and without enjoyment.  

The next day began in the same way- we woke up uncomfortable from a night on the ground and went for drill. Today, though, something was different- when we formed up on the drill field, there were ten boys, a few of them not older than I was, standing there in neat grey uniforms. They were coolly sizing us up and just knowing that they were watching made me feel inadequate. I tried to stand as straight as I could at drill, to march as sharply and handle my gun as competently as it was possible for a man to do, but they still found fault with every step and breath we took. It was a long morning, but in the afternoon I could feel the improvement, just a little at a time.

That evening, we sat up late around the campfire. I wasn't as tired as I had been the previous day, and I wondered whether I might be getting used to sleeping in that tent. Though I was lucky enough to have a nice cot back in New York, it wasn't as though I had slept on one all my life. I thought of our room in the boarding house before we left Ireland.

"How's your back?" Patrick asked Rory as he wandered back from the sinks.

"I'm better, thanks," Rory said, ducking his head. He had been, by all appearances, working pretty hard although he was supposed to be resting. There was always enough firewood and when we came back from drill Rory had usually begun supper. We were grateful, but we wondered whether he was taking care of himself as he should.

"You wouldn't believe the fun you're missing," Jack told Rory sarcastically. He explained how drill was going and what we had been up to. "And you're lucky enough," he finished, "to be excused from duty and miss all of this exciting work we're doing."

"I'm not sure lucky quite covers it," Rory said dryly. Jack simply shrugged; perhaps that was so.

"I came from Ireland with my family five years ago," Rory said quietly and instantly we stopped moving, stopped talking, nearly stopped breathing in order to hear the story. Typical of him, it was tersely and quietly told, no extra details, no elaboration. "And then my mother and father died. I was in an orphan home, until they sent me out of the city on the Orphan Train. I went to Western New York. I was thirteen, then, and I was almost too old, so I was chosen first. They thought I would be helpful on the farm." Rory shrugged with his good shoulder, and then continued, slowly, "I did everything I could. And, when I couldn't, they whipped me. Last week, I spilled soup. I forgot to brush the horses in the morning. I tried to run away. Then I ran away for good, in the night. And I came to the army." He fell silent and the story was over.

"Jesus, Mary and Joseph," Ted breathed. I realized that I, too, had been holding my breath. There was a long silence which Rory, being Rory, did not break. It was Jack who finally spoke.

"You're here now," he said, clearly casting about for something to say. "And you'll never have to go back." Rory nodded in relief.

We were silent for a long time, deep in thought, and sort of shocked by Rory's revelations of that evening. When the signal sounded, we wished each other good night and simply went to sleep.

We drilled under the watchful eyes of those little grey-coated taskmasters day after day. Rory's back healed and when he joined us again we were surprised to find that he seemed to know what he was doing. At least, he knew his right from his left, which many of the recruits did not. Still, his gun was nearly as tall as he was and he was a slight boy. Strong, it was true, but not quite big enough to haul his gun along with any amount of equipment. I often saw the Sergeant watching him at drill as he sweated and struggled to manage the gun and the marching all at once.

One day, the Sergeant pulled Rory aside, which we had been expecting, and then, to our surprise, asked Jack to come as well.

"Boys," he said to them, "We all know neither of you should be here. If I'd been your recruiter, you wouldn't be." Jack looked amazed- he'd thought he was passing for eighteen perfectly well- and when he opened his mouth to protest, Sergeant O'Malley held up a hand. "It's no use boy, I know what I know." Jack closed his mouth and looked sullen.

"I think," our Sergeant continued, "that we can strike a deal that'll serve both our purposes. You'll stay with the army and I won't be worrying about Coleman tripping over that musket every time he picks it up. What would you think of drumming?" he asked, looking at Jack, "and you," he said, turning his stern gaze on Rory, "do you think a fife might suit you?"

Jack and Rory traded looks and Jack shrugged. "I don't see why not," he allowed. "I don't know how to play, though."

"That's just fine," Sergeant O'Malley said. "We'll get you a drum and then some lessons. A few of the men here know what they're about. Finding a fife teacher will be more difficult, but let's see what we can do." He started off, leaving Rory and Jack standing still, and when he realized they were no longer following, he turned around. "What are you waiting for? Come on, never put off until tomorrow what could have been done today." With that, he turned briskly and kept going, Jack and Rory jogging to keep up.

By the time they got back to camp, we were sitting around the fire, cooking supper and dying of curiosity.

"What was that all about, then?" Patrick asked, and then noticed the instruments. The drum, strapped around Jack's neck, was hard to miss and Rory took his fife out of his pocket and held it out to show us.

"We've been detailed as musicians," Jack explained.

"Can you play at all, either one of you?" Ted asked bluntly.

"Not a bit," Jack said. "In fact, I haven't tried it out yet."

"Come on, then," we encouraged him. "Let's hear you play something." Jack picked the sticks up clumsily and beat a little bit on the drum until somebody from the next fire, his face safely obscured by the dark, yelled peevishly,

"Shut up that drumming. Hasn't today been bad enough yet?" With a hearty laugh, Jack stowed his sticks and set the drum behind him so he could lean on it.

"How about you?" he asked Rory. "Suppose you can get a sound out of that thing?"

"I think I can," Rory said with a quiet confidence and to our complete shock, he put the fife to his lips and played "Lorena" so sweetly that I felt my jaw drop.

"Rory, you can play?" Patrick asked, though the answer was obvious. Rory just nodded and blushed.

The same voice from the next campfire called back, "Drummer, you ought to take a few lessons from your friend there. We'll hear that again any day, laddie." Rory fairly glowed.

Next

Masterpost

[yellowhollyhock]

Alright, here's my analysis of the data. I've never taken a single statistics course, don't know how to finish this sentence,

How the Turtles Compare in the Open Poll

Leo and Raph are about equally popular; that's not surprising. Donnie pulls ahead, also doesn't shock me, and--wait wait wait whaaaat. Mikey is the least popular? But but but. Look at him though he's such a sweet little guy. He's funny he's competent he has so much potential for angst, why didn't people--oh wait I didn't vote for Mikey either asldjfls.

This seriously does surprise me, though. I see a lot of Mikey content in the fandom, I was always under the impression he was one of the more popular. So is there some sampling bias, because I don't post about Mikey very often? Probably. Is that sufficient to explain the gap? I don't know, that's a pretty big gap. Especially considering how much Mikey writing and Mikey art. From this alone I am concluding that we don't always draw or write about our favorites--and this holds true for me. I do have a lot of Donny stories, but even they tend to feature Mikey quite a lot, and if there's a turtle I write about second-most it'd easily be Mikey (although I haven't written about any of them in a while asdfadsf).

I also wonder if the fact that I didn't specify the iteration put Mikey at a disadvantage. Because lots of times even Mikey lovers I find have one Mikey that they just find annoying--which tbh always surprises me I love all of them alskdjfla. Well I mean I can't claim to know all of them, tmnt is endless, but I've yet to meet a Mikey I dislike. He is usually given the trait of being the annoying one though, and with him being annoying in different ways in each iteration, it makes sense that a multiversal poll (I guess that's what I'm calling this, no it's not implying anything confusing I think this was a great choice, I make great choices, especially in words, help I'm stuck in the parantheses lsjfdlakjsdkfj) would skew the results against him (whew I keysmashed my way outta there oh wait oh no asldkfjalskdjag). That's just speculation though.

Each Turtle's Data

Leo fans are very evenly split between drawing and writing. Lowest percentage of 'other' votes within Leo votes. Ah, the traditional turtle is enjoyed in traditional ways. He's balanced, versatile. One thing I would be curious about with Leo specifically is how much specifying iteration would change his data. I suspect not much--I feel like regardless of which Leo I see a fair amount of art and writing--however I suspect if it were Rise Leo it would be more writing, because there are so many stories exploring how the movie affected him. I don't think there's a Leo I would have predicted less writing and more art for.

Raph is also very close to even, with only just more writers than artists. He does have more 'other' votes as well. I would say his data shows the most variety. In a way, this could make it feel like there's less on him than there is. Raph and Leo both split close to even between writers and artists, but Raph got more votes for other, putting votes for 'Raph, write' behind 'Leo, write,' and the same for drawing. So if you're looking for a specific type of content about Raph (which is the way we usually search, right?), it might seem like there's less on him generally since it's all more spread out.

Don Don really is the People's Choice, huh? (J'hanna reference brought to you by your friendly neighborhood Dongel shipper). Between 1987 Donatello 'I can take you wimps' The Turtle, 2003 severely traumatized sweetheart of all time Donny, and Rise Canon Austism Tello, the numbers are not surprising. Anyway here is where we see the biggest spread, and it looks like Donnie fans are most likely to be artists, with almost half of his votes for drawing! Which is kinda cool because Donatello makes things with his hands. He's not usually portrayed as the artsy turtle, but the care we see him put into making things for people he cares about and the way he sometimes attaches his worth to how well it's received or lives up to what he had in his head--fun correlation.

Mikey, while he only got a few votes, is our winner as far as percentage of 'other' votes. Which also surprised me. Maybe it shouldn't, though, he's a very useful character for comedy, which means incorrect quotes and screenshots. I honestly expected a lot of Mikey fans to be writers. He's such a versatile charatcter to write for, whether you're wanting a few laughs, catharsis, action-packed plot, shipping. He's so dynamic and so much deeper than he often presents. And I see a lot of writing on him. Idk y'all I think this poll just didn't reach the Mikey fans. Or the Mikey fans aren't on tumblr? idk.

Open Poll vs Yellow Circle

Before putting the poll out there I posted an unrebloggable version only intended to reach my followers, in order to get an idea of what type of bias I would see in the circulated poll after, as well as the ways what I'm likely to see differ from what's theoretically out there.

One bias: I am clearly posting about and following those who post about Raph (I mean I ran the March for Raph event, I don't think surprises anyone). Looking at the numbers, I think this filtered itself out when the poll was circulated, but it is still worth bearing in mind that a poll I posted is more likely to have the data skewed in Raph's favor.

Another bias: hardly any Mikey votes. This is where I was glad I did this because I didn't expect that, I think of myself as a Mikey lover and forget sometimes that I really don't post about him. Mikey lovers aren't likely to follow me, too many of my posts are Raph essays and Donny incorrect quotes. Looking at the numbers, this bias is evident in the circulated poll. We can assume that if this bias weren't present we'd have more Mikey votes, but the difference is still so significant that I believe we would see a gap still, just not as much of one.

Also an interesting difference: Leo and Raph were evenly split in the open poll, but in the check-yellow's-bias poll, we had more Leo artists and more Raph writers.

That is all.

Thank you to everyone who participated! This was fun. My curiousity is satisfied. Perhaps I will revisit this data and come up with more questions, but not this week. After school is over (or maybe in a few years idk askjdflsa)

I'm curious about the correlation, if any, between someone's favorite turtle and their participation in the tmnt fandom. Like, are there more likely to be drawings of Don and stories of Mikey (random example)?

Other= gifsets/screenshots, incorrect quotes, analysis or reaction posts, video clips and compilations. Probably something else that I forgot.

please vote and spread!