#hydrological modelling

[visuac]

mascara

[mindblowingscience]

Australia should prepare for “megadroughts” that last more than 20 years and will worsen due to human-induced global heating, new research has found. Megadroughts are exceptionally severe periods of below average rainfall that last decades. Climate modelling by the Australian National University, published in the journal of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences last week, found droughts spanning more than two decades have occurred in Australia over the past millennia and reoccur every 150 to 1,000 years, depending on the modelling used.

Continue Reading.

[boinkingbattlemechs]

Ostscout

The Ostscout was designed as a pure recon BattleMech by Ostmann Industries. To that end, it was built entirely around gathering data and getting out of trouble, tasks for which it is exceptional; the Ostscout is quick enough to escape most traps, and very few other designs can match it in terms of speed and maneuverability. However, its ability to run and leap out of danger came at the expense of offensive capability, and in fact, were it not for aggressive lobbying on the part of its test pilots the final production model would have been completely weaponless. As it is, the Ostscout would be hard pressed to win a fight against all but the lightest 'Mechs, but the 'Mech excels at operating deep behind enemy lines, gathering as much information as possible about the terrain and the disposition of enemy forces.

The Ostscout carries a single Tronel II medium laser mounted in its center torso. This weapon, while not extremely powerful, is enough to dissuade most light scout assets from attempting to pursue. The 10 heat sinks the 'Mech carries is more than enough to handle the heat output of this single laser - indeed the Ostscout can jump 210 meters and fire the laser at the same time without overheating at all. While it is protected by four and a half tons of armor, the real protection for the 'Mech is its speed and maneuverability, with a massive 16 ton fusion engine more commonly seen in 'Mechs twice its size propels the Ostscout to a cruising speed of 86.4 km/h. Eight jump jets built into the left and right torso give it a maximum jumping distance of 240 meters, rivaling that of the Spider.

The true centerpiece of the design is its advanced sensor systems, including the TRSS.2L3 target-tracking system and powerful narrowband Barret 4000 comms system. The sensor arrays themselves are mounted outside the main chassis due to their delicate nature, with the Ostscout using its arms to aim them. Everything from hydrological to geological data is recorded, so much data in fact that the 'Mech's computer cannot process it fast enough. This forces the Ostscout to move slowly when traveling through an area of interest, waving its arms seemingly at random.

[spacetimewithstuartgary]

Saturn’s moon Titan has insulating methane-rich crust up to six miles thick

Saturn’s largest moon Titan is the only place other than Earth known to have an atmosphere and liquids in the form of rivers, lakes and seas on its surface. Because of its extremely cold temperature, the liquids on Titan are made of hydrocarbons like methane and ethane, and the surface is made of solid water ice. A new study, led by planetary scientists at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, revealed that methane gas may also be trapped within the ice, forming a distinct crust up to six miles thick, which warms the underlying ice shell and may also explain Titan's methane-rich atmosphere.

The research team, led by research associate Lauren Schurmeier, that also includes Gwendolyn Brouwer, doctoral candidate, and Sarah Fagents, associate director and researcher, in the Hawai‘i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP) in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), observed in NASA data that Titan’s impact craters are hundreds of meters shallower than expected and only 90 craters have been identified on this moon. 

“This was very surprising because, based on other moons, we expect to see many more impact craters on the surface and craters that are much deeper than what we observe on Titan,” said Schurmeier. “We realized something unique to Titan must be making them become shallower and disappear relatively quickly.”

To investigate what might be beneath this mystery, the researchers tested in a computer model how the topography of Titan might relax or rebound after an impact if the ice shell was covered with a layer of insulating methane clathrate ice, a kind of solid water ice with methane gas trapped within the crystal structure. Since the initial shape of Titan's craters is unknown, the researchers modeled and compared two plausible initial depths, based on fresh-looking craters of similar size on a similar-size icy moon, Ganymede.

“Using this modeling approach, we were able to constrain the methane clathrate crust thickness to five to ten kilometers [about three to six miles] because simulations using that thickness produced crater depths that best matched the observed craters,” said Schurmeier. “The methane clathrate crust warms Titan's interior and causes surprisingly rapid topographic relaxation, which results in crater shallowing at a rate that is close to that of fast-moving warm glaciers on Earth.”

Methane-rich atmosphere 

Estimating the thickness of the methane ice shell is important because it may explain the origin of Titan's methane-rich atmosphere and helps researchers understand Titan's carbon cycle, liquid methane-based "hydrological cycle," and changing climate. 

“Titan is a natural laboratory to study how the greenhouse gas methane warms and cycles through the atmosphere,” said Schurmeier. “Earth's methane clathrate hydrates, found in the permafrost of Siberia and below the arctic seafloor, are currently destabilizing and releasing methane. So, lessons from Titan can provide important insights into processes happening on Earth.”

Structure of Titan

The topography seen on Titan makes sense in light of these new findings. And constraining the thickness of the methane clathrate ice crust indicates that Titan's interior is likely warm--not cold, rigid, and inactive as previously thought.

“Methane clathrate is stronger and more insulating than regular water ice,” said Schurmeier. “A clathrate crust insulates Titan's interior, makes the water ice shell very warm and ductile, and implies that Titan's ice shell is or was slowly convecting.”

“If life exists in Titan's ocean under the thick ice shell, any signs of life (biomarkers) would need to be transported up Titan's ice shell to where we could more easily access or view them with future missions,” Schurmeier added. “This is more likely to occur if Titan's ice shell is warm and convecting.”

With the NASA Dragonfly mission to Titan scheduled to launch in July 2028 and arrive in 2034, researchers will have an opportunity to make up-close observations of this moon and further investigate the icy surface, including a crater named Selk.  

IMAGE: Proposed diagram of Titan's interior (not to scale), showing a methane clathrate crust over a convecting ice shell.  Credit Schurmeier, et al., 2024

[pyrrhocorax]

my current hetalia wildlife/natural resources au thoughts i have from your resident wildlife biologist: sweden: i have lots of ideas for him but the idea of him being an entomologist is interesting b/c the contrast of "big scary giant guy, but he studies tiny butterflies" is really fun to me. he has a very entomologist personality to me too based on all the entomologists i know so lepidopterist is my current thought. finland: forester. all foresters i know are unhinged in the same exact way he is unhinged. potentially also a fire ecologist?? i think that would be interesting (give me an excuse to learn about fire ecology more) and i think he would enjoy using a flamethrower. iceland: thinking geologist, prob volcanologist? or he studies auks. norway: less sure of him. thinking mainly about fisheries (not sure if marine or freshwater, both are interesting), mycology, lichenology (this is the main one i am thinking about rn), oceanography, or mountain stream hydrology (yes that is a thing) for him. denmark: having the most trouble with him honestly. maybe meteorology, geography (GIS dude??), soil biology?? maybe even human dimensions (i can see him being a good intermediary between the public and natural resources, like park ranger-esque)?? idk if extension agents exist in europe but he'd be good at that i think. estonia: songbird biologist. bander (or ringer you're european). potentially studying migration trends? breeding output of at-risk species? potentially lab mates with austria b/c sharing same field site. he's uncannily good at mimicking bird calls. lithuania: large carnivore biologist that studies in canids (i.e. wolves), mainly does camera trapping but also darts/radio collars them. looking at habitat usage to hopefully boost populations??? latvia: shorebird/rail/stork biologist?? reminds me of a shorebird biologist i know and i think he'd vibe well with water/water adjacent bird work. i also think him studying beavers is fun because beavers are fun! and i think the riga beaver thing back in the day was hysterical lol OR i think him being an aquatic entomologist would be cool he could be a dragonfly guy austria: also a songbird biologist, but looking at vocalizations/song stuff, does a lot more lab work than field work analyzing vocalizations. maybe studying nocturnal vocalizations during migration of birds across different habitats??? potentially lab mates with estonia. america: ungulates. or maybe specifically cervids. respectfully, as an american, we are overly obsessed with deer. could also see him studying salamanders because they are a special kind of person too that fits the american personality well, and america is home to the most salamander diversity in the world so like. yeah. canada: ducks/loons/grebes, raptors (specifically thinking eagles/hawks), weasels (him being so understated but studying wolverines is funny to me), or fisheries? :/ could also see him being a habitat biologist in general, doing modeling stuff for wider scale land changes? i kind of want him to be a prairie conservationist too. england: botanist is my thought for now? he has a "plant research guy who is 3 years into his phd and kind of regretting his life choices" vibe to me. but he's also the world's crustiest birder outside of his work (b/c uk influenced a lot of the current world birding culture) germany: ngl environmental policy analyst seems up his alley and we need more of those who are good. romania: chiropterist. and before you are like "urg don't stereotype the vampire thing pyrr" it's not that. his personality is just very bat biologist. they are a special kind of people, and i say that with affection, as all the bat people i know are fantastic. specifically could see him being also an entomologist studying the interactions between bats/bugs on farmland to see how bat populations help crop production. still thinking on things though!!! welcome to my niche au.

[canmom]

(Me again! Previously I had bothered you in DMs about an article, but figured it might be better to send an ask in this case.) On the topic of environmental concerns, I did have a question about James Hansen's 'Global Warming in the Pipeline' which was published last year. A previous (and rather bleak) Medium article you analyzed had cited this particular paper as proof that we're on track to exceed 3C in our lifetimes, even if emissions were to suddenly halt today. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha09020b.html Since this paper has now passed peer review, what exactly does this mean in simplistic terms? I understand this means that the climate scientists that have analyzed the paper agree with what it states (and see no issues with it's logic), but does it actually mean we'll reach 4C by 2100? Or have I misunderstood what this is stating? The only way I see this not being the case is if somehow Hansen's paper later turns out to be incorrect (which seems unlikely).

I also understand that the paper heavily advocates for a level of geoengineering, which I think is a better alternative to letting a large majority of people suffer, but I'm not sure if you have any opinions on when you think that'd be best to do.

oooh, i've put off answering this because it's perhaps a bit above my pay grade, but let's see

so as far as passing peer review - it's hard to say how robust that is in terms of whether you should believe its conclusions. it depends a lot on the field, the reviewers, and so on - papers are retracted frequently, even if the initial round of reviewers advised to publish.

in climate science we are engaged in a spectacularly difficult modelling task. this paper also speaks on a pretty broad range of subjects. let me quote the full abstract, adding some paragraph breaks:

Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2±0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C±1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era — including 'slow' feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases — supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300-350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today's GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today's human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not 'committed' warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970-2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth's radiation imbalance to phase down today's massive human-made 'geo-transformation' of Earth's climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.

As I've split it, the first paragraph is a quantitative statement about equilibrium warming, which is the paper's scientific contribution. The second paragraph adds some qualifiers about the expected trajectory "under the present geopolitical approach". The third para is a political argument - a 'what is to be done' type statement.

That's a lot to cover in one paper! It also invites different kinds of approaches to peer review. A scientist reviewing the first half of this paper would be making a technical analysis: do Hansen et al look at the right data, analyse it rigorously, etc. etc.

Why is this all so complicated? Well, lots of things change on Earth when it gets hotter and colder. The amount of cloud coverage, the amount of ice, the way the oceans mix hot and cold water, etc. etc., the amount of dust and soot in the air from forest fires - all of this affects how much energy comes into the atmosphere, how much gets reflected into space, etc etc.

The main things that the paper talks about are...

the equilibrium climate sensitivity: basically, if you add a bunch of extra energy to the system (what climate scientists call 'forcing'), once everything settles down, what temperature do you end up at, per unit of forcing?

the speed of various feedbacks - how quickly the clouds, ice, etc. etc. change in response to the forcing, which determines how quickly you approach this final equilibrium temperature. Knowing which feedbacks are fast and slow is important since it tells us what we can expect to happen when we cut CO2 emissions.

It's naturally a pretty involved discussion and I don't pretend to have the background to follow all the ins and outs of it, but Hansen et al. use various lines of evidence to try to assess these parameters, see how they affect climate models, and the like. They perform an analysis of how temperature and estimated CO2 varied during the Cenozoic era, and there's a section on estimating the effects of aerosols, both natural and human-made.

On the subject of aerosols, Hansen et al. suggest that previous climate models may have made two mistakes that cancelled each other out:

Recent global warming does not yield a unique ECS [Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity] because warming depends on three major unknowns with only two basic constraints. Unknowns are ECS, net climate forcing (aerosol forcing is unmeasured), and ocean mixing (many ocean models are too diffusive). Constraints are observed global temperature change and Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) [80]. Knutti [150] and Hansen [75] suggest that many climate models compensate for excessive ocean mixing (which reduces surface warming) by using aerosol forcing less negative than the real world, thus achieving realistic surface warming.

What they're saying here is, though we have a pretty good idea of how much CO2 we put in the atmosphere, since we don't have a good measure of aerosols we don't actually know for sure how much energy humans were adding to the atmosphere. Like, CO2 adds energy, but sulfur dioxide reflects it away.

There's three unknown parameters here, and two constraints (things we can calculate for definite). We use a model to tell us one of those unknowns (the ocean stuff), and that allows us to tune the effect of aerosols until our model Earth matches our measurements of the real Earth. But, if our ocean model is wrong, then we end up wrongly estimating the effect of aerosols.

The upshot is that aerosols have been a bigger deal than we thought, and as the world cleans up the atmsophere and removes the amount of aerosols, the rate of warming will increase. It's definitely plausible - but it's such a complicated system that there could easily be some other nuance here.

I won't try to summarise every point in the paper but it's that kind of thing that they're arguing about here. This isn't a mathematical proof, though! Since it's touching on a huge range of different parameters, trying to draw together lots of different lines of evidence, there is still a fair bit of room for nuance. It's not so simple as 'Hansen et al. are right' or 'Hansen et al. are wrong' - they could be wrong about one thing and right about another.

To say they've passed peer review is to say that they've done as reasonable a job as anyone can expect to try and figure out this kind of messy problem. However, other scientists may still take issue with one or another claim. It's not as definitive as a maths paper.

That said, Hansen's arguments all seem pretty plausible to me. The tools he uses to assess this situation are sensible and he talks about cases where things weren't as expected (he thought that improved climate models would change in a different way, and they didn't). But while I know enough about the subject to be able to largely follow what he's saying, I'm not confident saying whether he's right.

The second half takes on a different tone...

This section is the first author’s perspective based on more than 20 years of experience on policy issues that began with a paper [179] and two workshops [180] that he organized at the East-West Center in Hawaii, followed by meetings and workshops with utility experts and trips to more than a dozen nations for discussions with government officials, energy experts, and environmentalists. The aim was to find a realistic scenario with a bright energy and climate future, with emphasis on cooperation between the West and nations with emerging or underdeveloped economies.

So this is more of a historical, political analysis section, addressing why we are on this trajectory and why scientists may be institutionally underestimating the threat ('scientific reticence', 'gradualism' and so on). Well, more precisely, it's a polemic - a scientifically informed polemic, but this is basically an editorial stapled to the science part of the paper.

This includes an account of how a previous paper ('Ice Melt') led by Hansen was reviewed, and sidelined by other scientists, for what Hansen considers unsound reasons. It leads into something of an impassioned plea by Hansen addressed at his fellow scientists, complete with rhetorical questions:

Climate science reveals the threat of being too late. ‘Being too late’ refers not only to warning of the climate threat, but also to technical advice on policy implications. Are we scientists not complicit if we allow reticence and comfort to obfuscate our description of the climate situation? Does our training, years of graduate study and decades of experience, not make us well-equipped to advise the public on the climate situation and its policy implications? As professionals with deep understanding of planetary change and as guardians of young people and their future, do we not have an obligation, analogous to the code of ethics of medical professionals, to render to the public our full and unencumbered diagnosis? That is our objective.

This leads into Hansen's proposal for how to get out of this mess: a price on carbon dioxide, nuclear power, and rushing to research geoengineering such as spraying salt water in the air. And then e.g. specific political proposals, like 'a political party that takes no money from special interests', ranked choice voting and so on.

Naturally this is a lot harder to take technical issue with. It's more like an editorial. As a reviewer you'd probably say it's worth publishing because it's well argued, etc. etc., without necessarily agreeing with every one of Hansen's proposals. You can say 'that obviously wouldn't work' and so on, but it's a different kind of argument.

So re your questions:

does it actually mean we'll reach 4C by 2100?

If Hansen et al. are right, the IPCC reports are underestimating the equilibrium we approach for the current amount of CO2 in the atmosphere - which would lead to 2°C well before 2050, so 4°C by 2100 seems plausible (I didn't spot a timeline that goes that far in the paper when I skimmed through but I could have missed it).

This isn't the amount of warming that will happen, because the Earth has many systems which gradually scrub CO2 from the atmosphere. If we stopped pumping out CO2 suddenly, the amount of CO2, and the amount of extra energy it adds, would gradually decline. So we wouldn't necessarily approach that equilibrium. On the other hand, the amount of CO2 forcing is only going up as things currently stand - and if the amount of forcing stayed the same, Hansen says it would eventually deglaciate Antarctica, leading to over 10°C of warming.

But working out what will actually happen by 2100 depends on a lot of modelling assumptions - how long do you assume we keep pumping out CO2? Hansen addresses this when talking about the subject of 'committed warming':

‘Committed warming’ is less precisely defined; even in the current IPCC report [12] (p. 2222) it has multiple definitions. One concept is the warming that occurs if human-made GHG emissions cease today, but that definition is ill-posed as well as unrealistic. Do aerosol emissions also cease? That would cause a sudden leap in Earth’s energy imbalance, a ‘termination shock,’ as the cooling effect of human-made aerosols disappears. A more useful definition is the warming that will occur with plausibly rapid phasedown of GHG emissions, including comparison with ongoing reality. However, the required ‘integrated assessment models,’ while useful, are complex and contain questionable assumptions that can mislead policy (see Perspective on policy implications section).

So, will we reach 4C by 2100? We can only phrase this question in a conditional way: if we continue to add this much energy, then...

In practice we will probably end up reducing our emissions one way or another - which is to say, if our present complex societies collapse, they ain't gonna be emitting much carbon anymore...

I also understand that the paper heavily advocates for a level of geoengineering, which I think is a better alternative to letting a large majority of people suffer, but I'm not sure if you have any opinions on when you think that'd be best to do.

The way things are going, I think it's likely that people will try geoengineering when the climate-related disasters really start to ramp up, so whether or not they should ends up kind of besides the point.

Hansen doesn't really advocate a specific programme to pursue - only one paragraph in the whole paper talks about geoengineering:

Highest priority is to phase down emissions, but it is no longer feasible to rapidly restore energy balance via only GHG emission reductions. Additional action is almost surely needed to prevent grievous escalation of climate impacts including lock-in of sea level rise that could destroy coastal cities world-wide. At least several years will be needed to define and gain acceptance of an approach for climate restoration. This effort should not deter action on mitigation of emissions; on the contrary, the concept of human intervention in climate is distasteful to many people, so support for GHG emission reductions will likely increase. Temporary solar radiation management (SRM) will probably be needed, e.g. via purposeful injection of atmospheric aerosols. Risks of such intervention must be defined, as well as risks of no intervention; thus, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences recommends research on SRM [212]. The Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 1991 is a natural experiment [213, 214] with a forcing that reached [30] –3 W/m2. Pinatubo deserves a coordinated study with current models. The most innocuous aerosols may be fine salty droplets extracted from the ocean and sprayed into the air by autonomous sailboats [215]. This approach has been discussed for potential use on a global scale [216], but it needs research into potential unintended effects [217]. This decade may be our last chance to develop the knowledge, technical capability, and political will for actions needed to save global coastal regions from long-term inundation.

He says 'we need to research this more to figure out the risks, since we'll probably have to do it' basically. Climate researchers have historically been reluctant to advocate geoengineering for fear it will be mistaken as a way to solve the climate problem without reducing GHG emissions, so honestly seeing them suggest it now maybe brings to light the atmosphere of desperation in the field.

Unfortunately, when talking about politics and economics, Hansen is on much less firm ground than when he's picking apart the intricacies of climate feedbacks. He clearly wants to try to discourage doomerism, and he's rightly critical of cap-and-trade and similar schemes, but he has his specific political fixations and what he suggests is all a bit unconvincing as a programme. I don't say this because I've got a better idea, though.

The problem is that the future is really hard to predict. It's bad enough when it's climate systems, but humans are even more complicated little nonlinear freaks. This isn't a new problem for Hansen's paper. I am pessimistic enough by nature that I don't really trust my ability to predict what we will do when climate change gets more severe. Hopefully by the time we finally decide to stop kicking the can down the road, there will still be something to be done.

[head-post]

4.4 billion people can’t get safe drink

About 4.4 billion people around the world lack access to safe drinking water, according to a new study released on Thursday.

The figure is nearly double previous estimates by the World Health Organisation, according to the study published in the scientific journal Science.

Swiss scientists used computer modelling to estimate the level of access to water in different regions. The study analysed water access data collected from 64,723 households from 27 low- and middle-income countries between 2016 and 2020. The surveys investigated the conditions of the water supply, including its protection from chemical and faecal contamination.

The collected data was applied in machine learning algorithms, which were then augmented with global geospatial data such as climatic conditions, topography, hydrology and population density. Using this model, the researchers drew conclusions about water access in other countries with similar characteristics.

The analysis showed that sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and East Asia have the greatest problems with access to safe water. In these regions, bacterial and chemical contamination and lack of infrastructure remain major problems. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, about 650 million people do not have access to drinking water directly in or near their homes.

Although the study did not focus on high-income countries, the researchers recognise that there may be populations with limited access to clean water in these regions as well.

Read more HERE

[acgenvs3000f24]

Unit 5 Blog Post: Citizen Science and Conservation Practices

Happy thanksgiving everyone!

Given that this week’s blog prompt is open, I wanted to share some thoughts inspired by our course content so far.

While watching Washington Wachira’s TED Talk "For the Love of Birds," I began reflecting on the role of citizen science. Apps like iNaturalist, which is widely used in Guelph, offer a powerful tool to connect people with nature by allowing users to log observations. However, they also inadvertently filter participation.

For instance, I’ve spoken with older individuals who possess immense knowledge of local flora and fauna but do not engage with these apps. Their insights are invaluable, yet their observations remain undocumented in digital platforms. This raises a concern: Are we excluding certain demographics from contributing to citizen science simply because of a technological barrier?

This issue highlights the need to design more inclusive citizen science initiatives. If older generations or non-tech-savvy individuals struggle to access these platforms, we may miss crucial knowledge. Digital platforms should be complemented with physical or analog extensions—perhaps logbooks or community-led observation notebooks that can be collected and digitized by volunteers.

            During my time in Kenya, I witnessed how citizens live in harmony with their natural environment. Kenya’s incredible biodiversity, which spans savannahs, tropical forests, deserts, and highlands, surpasses that of Canada. Yet, despite this richness, much of the local knowledge remains undocumented in apps or digital tools. Conservation in Kenya requires more than just technological solutions—it depends on community engagement and biocultural conservation. One of my professors, Carol Muriuki, a conservationist with the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), shared insights that transformed my understanding of conservation. She emphasized that conservation cannot follow a “one-size-fits-all” approach. Community stewardship and biocultural conservation is crucial for designing conservation initiatives that have a lasting positive impact. Instead of crafting a conservation plan that looks good on paper but is not feasible in the real world. Each initiative must account for ecological, economic, and cultural realities.

            A compelling example is the Lake Naivasha region, where rising water levels—likely caused by climate change—are displacing communities that rely on the lake for food and income. As Carol explained, simply forcing people to relocate isn’t a viable solution. Instead, NEMA is working on a more holistic approach, such as restructuring hydrological infrastructure, planting mangrove trees, and compensating displaced families. This approach integrates the needs of both people and the environment, exemplifying how inclusive conservation practices can lead to sustainable outcomes.

        Figure 1. Blurry view of Lake Naivasha from the campground in Kenya (Griffiths, 2024)

I see Carol’s work as a model for future conservation efforts, where citizen science plays a central role in shaping projects rather than just being a tool for data collection. For citizen science to be effective, it must evolve beyond passive contributions. It should foster continuous dialogue between scientists and the public, ensuring citizens actively participate in research and conservation initiatives. This approach could help address the issue of bias in scientific sampling. Scientists often focus on charismatic species—those that are easy to observe or already have a wealth of knowledge available from past studies. As opposed to cryptic or under-studied species. In contrast, citizen observations tend to be more exploratory, as participants are not constrained by preconceptions about which species are significant, enriching scientific understanding in unexpected ways.

            One of the biggest takeaways from this course is the realization that academic science offers only a narrow lens through which to engage with nature. As students, it’s easy to become trapped within the confines of scientific rigor and overlook the many other ways people connect with the natural world. Yet, through this course, I’ve learned that storytelling, art, and lived experiences are equally powerful tools for interpreting the environment. For example, conservation is as much about understanding community needs as it is about protecting ecosystems. Similarly, citizen science is not just about data—it’s about fostering a deeper relationship between people and nature.

            Ultimately, effective conservation requires both emotional and intellectual engagement. Successful initiatives depend on integrating scientific knowledge with community stewardship. Similarly, citizen science can only reach its full potential when it invites participation from all walks of life—from scientists, to tech-savvy citizens, and those more comfortable with traditional forms of engagement. As I reflect on what we’ve covered so far, I believe we are just beginning to scratch the surface of how we can engage an audience with nature. The challenge lies in finding new ways to connect with both people and the environment—whether through technology, community dialogue, or personal storytelling.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Brazil, Paraguay: High temperatures forecast to persist across central Brazil and Paraguay through at least Sept. 25

High temperatures forecast to persist across central Brazil and Paraguay through Sept. 25. Transport and utility disruptions possible

Forecast models indicate that high temperatures will persist across much of central Brazil and Paraguay through at least Sept. 25. An unseasonable heatwave due to a persistent area of high pressure over the region could see temperatures reach around 40-45 C (104-113 F) across parts of the affected area in the coming days.

As of Sept. 20, the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) has issued red heatwave warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) across parts of southern and western Goias, central, eastern, northern, and southern Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, southern and western Minas Gerais, southeastern Para, northern Parana, far western Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, and southwestern and western Tocantins states through Sept. 24. Orange heatwave warnings are in place across rest of the affected area.

Paraguay's Directorate of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) has issued a special weather bulletin for high temperatures across the country through Sept. 25. Red warnings for maximum temperatures of 40-43 C (104-109 F) are in place across central and western regions and orange warnings for temperatures of 38-40 C (100-104 F) are in place across the rest of the country.

Continue reading.

[streamlass]

It is looking increasingly likely that I'm going to have to learn FORTRAN for this damnable model.

I do not WANT to learn YET ANOTHER coding language. Computers were never my "thing." They're fine, I enjoy being able to do basic maintenance on them in the same way I enjoy being able to do basic maintenance on my car; and like my car, I would prefer to be able to leave the complicated stuff to the professionals.

What I want to do is be paid to look under rocks for neat bugs, & then write down what rocks & what bugs, & measure the streamflow. But they hire guys (and pretty much ONLY guys!) with bachelor's degrees in fisheries management for that, because they can't get jobs fishing all day, which is apparently what most of them thought fisheries biology was about. They do not hire women with master's degrees in actually relevant topics, like hydrology & geology.

And now I'm half-daydreaming about applying for snow hydrology PhDs in Finland...except that position ALSO requires learning fucking FORTRAN!!!

[elleenvs3000f23]

Blog 10 - Where I started, what I learned and my personal ethic as an interpreter

Why I wanted to learn about interpretation

I first started to consider the value and role of science outside just curiosities sake seriously in first year. I was working as a research assistant to a prof and in the early days of lockdown was waist deep in trying to outline and plan my research project on hydrological connectivity. My professor kept talking about how we needed to find our story - did we want to make research that talked about agriculture and changing land use? Did we want to make a new piece for the climate change puzzle by looking at how incoming precipitation changes would move around the watershed? Did we want to comment on urbanization and the changing structure of our landscape? 

I realized very quickly that my research and work as a scientist was going to be much more complicated than the experiments I did in highschool labs, or even the modeling I was currently working on in GIS. Science for science's sake is fun - I think a good baking-soda volcano is a testament to human creativity and the wonder of the little things. But experiments alone don't exactly draw funding and publications - or better yet, inspire real action and as our school would put it "improve life". Learning how to communicate my work as a scientist has since become a goal in my undergrad and was what led me to this course. In a scientific paper, sometimes you read a few sentences about the background of a place or the people that might be impacted by X phenomenon but the papers are never actually written for those people. I think interpretation can be a vehicle for bridging academia and communities in a two way street. 

In our reading for unit 10 we watched a video conversation between David Suzuki and Richard Louv. One thing Louv said that really resonated with me is the impact our imagined futures have on the world. If people think that they are separate from nature, or that environmental movements are futile, we are bound to head towards that envisioned world. I think being able to share research and nature itself with general populations is crucial to making sure we as a community are on the same page about what we value and what we want the future to look like. 

What I brought with me into this course

I come from a family of storytellers. My mom writes children's stories, my brother is an actor studying journalism, I do improv theater - family dinners are always a riot. Early in the course I would always try to anchor my blog posts to a story or experience I had - it felt like a way to make my work both unique and relatable. I think this anchor in storytelling is natural to me and I love the work I produce as a result of it - I think it is crucial to my approach to interpretation and I don't plan on losing it anytime soon. In the video of Louv and Suzuki linked above - they also both start the conversation with personal stories that connect their lives to nature - it is clearly a powerful tool to build engagement and emotional connection. 

My moments of connection to nature are often grounded in my workouts - running and kayaking. I think the fact that I see nature as a place to push myself and let go of stress is important to how I interact with interpretation and would share nature with others. We talked about risk and interpretation in unit 3 and how being exposed to some level of uncertainty and hardship can push us to build resiliency and discover new abilities in ourselves. That unit also taught us to think carefully about what thresholds of risk are acceptable and how to know when to step back and re-evaluate. I have been on both ends of this rope - having some of my best times being recorded because I got lost during a run but also reaching a point where I pushed too hard and had to call a friend to pick me up from the trail when I got heat stroke. I think having this experience and attitude towards time in nature as time to test limits is a unique counterbalance to my hopes of sharing more academic knowledge as an interpreter - Is there a niche for nerdy-jocks? I think that’s who I want to be as an interpreter. 

What I learned about myself and interpretation 

This course opened my eyes to how we can interpret more than just information and facts. Music and art are also crucial to connecting with and understanding nature. I have to give more thought to how I could connect these to my own interpretation; I write songs but doubt I will be confident enough to share them with an audience any time soon so perhaps art and music can be a way to bring collaborators into my interpretation. I often mention my friend Jack and his photos on this blog so continuing to talk to and share the work of local artists would be something to include in my approach to interpretation. 

Overall I think my initial impression of interpretation as a way to communicate science was narrow minded. Interpretation needs to be a two way street that connects with the beliefs and values of the people participating - maybe they can even give inspiration for new research questions as I begin to understand their needs and questions!

My responsibility and ethic

I want to

Celebrate local environments

Integrate physical activity with time in nature

Make communicating research essential to my interpretation

Connect communities to relevant research that impacts their lives

Make work that is relevant to current issues and questions and motivates action on issues such as habitat loss, water resource protection and climate change

I need to make sure

Make sure emphasis on physical activity doesn’t exclude disabled people form my work

Make sure that higher risk interpretation activities have an awareness of when risk has gone to far and have an exit strategy

Make sure I am as accurate and faithful to the science I share

Make sure I people are able to continue to engage with what they learned

A summary of my approach to future interpretation

I am a water researcher - it's been my work throughout undergrad, I will study pollution and water quality for my masters and I hope to continue to a pHd. As I mentioned in my earlier blogs, I believe that water is a great connector of people and nature. Water has great historical importance as we established communities along the shores of water bodies and traveled oceans and rivers. We can’t live without it but people are very disconnected from it as a resource that comes from taps and bottles. I want to make sure that I am connecting my interpretation to high quality science as well as the needs of the local community. In my home of Guelph/Fergus, a great deal of concern exists around protecting groundwater reserves from the bottled water industry and a key landscape feature is the Grand River so I would focus my interpretation around the history of the Grand and the environmental role of groundwater and rivers. I also think by encouraging participants to share their memories, stories and art of time in nature I could help build connection. I want to do an interpretation that is directly relevant to the issues facing the environment and communities and I believe that we can all benefit from spending more time outside and being active. In a single sentence I want to do scientifically based, community focused interpretation with an emphasis on physical activity.

[mindblowingscience]

Researchers at the University of Tsukuba have made a groundbreaking discovery regarding the origins of non-meteoric water in natural spa waters located in central Japan. Based on numerical modeling, their results suggest that this water has been confined within the lithosphere for an extensive period of 1.5–5 million years. They identified three primary sources for this ancient water: the Philippine Sea Plate, the Pacific Plate, and ancient seafloor sediments, particularly in the Niigata and southwest Gunma regions. Although most natural spa waters primarily originate from atmospheric precipitation, such as rain and snow (known as meteoric water), the new study, now published in the Journal of Hydrology, explored the unique qualities of certain spa waters. By analyzing the stable isotope compositions of hydrogen and oxygen in water molecules, researchers have identified distinct characteristics that indicate the presence of long-trapped lithospheric water.

Continue Reading.

[script-a-world]

Submitted via Google Form:

I'm trying to create humanoid species that are no taller than 3 metres that can dive as deep and as long as whales but keep running into issues about how to design them. Any help you could give?

Tex: I’m going to make a couple of assumptions about the species you’re building - one is that they depend upon oxygen circulation in their blood, and another is that they breathe air outside of a water environment. This would require that they spend some fraction of time outside of water, and that their physiology would need to withstand different pressure environments.

I suspect that some of the issues you’re running into is how much oxygen to saturate their blood, and how humanoid cells can withstand the same environmental pressure as whales while being miniscule in comparison to a whale.

Being three metres high gives issues with being on land and outside of water, because there’s no buoyancy to counteract gravity - this presents issues with circulation and having strong enough hearts to pump blood to the correct pressure for a three metre tall being. There is a website that gives a short list of animals that are approximately three metres at their longest measure (Dimension of Stuff), and on land this typically becomes bovines/equines or animals that spend an equal amount of times in water and on its coasts.

Note that this doesn’t give height - a zebra, in one of its examples, is not measured in how many hands high, but rather tip to tail, which is a horizontal measurement rather than vertical.

I suppose you could model things a bit after the ostrich (All Top Everything), and while a bird this could provide some compatible overlap with a marine animal.

A main conundrum is the idea of a species being able to deep dive to the depth a whale typically reaches - and presumably having an evolutionary reason for doing so - while also being able to walk on land. What is it your species is eating that requires it to not only be able to swim to deep depths - with legs and feet, no less - but also to cross over to another environment entirely to an entirely different means of self-propelled transportation? Is this seasonal? Is this meteorological? Dependent upon hydrological phenomenon?

You are of course able to handwave this degree of realism and handwave it as “selkies but also giants”, which is very cool to think about, but to build to this level of realism would require thinking about things like arterial perfusion, bone density, and elasticity of certain cell types. What goals are you wanting to fulfill with the creation of this species, in the context of your narrative and how they relate to the rest of your world?

[cvrsons]

INTRODUCING.

michael evans behling | he/him | cis man | Have you met CARSON WILLIAMS yet ? They’re the TWENTY-SEVEN year old HYDROLOGIST that lives around WEST POINT HOMES. I think they’ve lived in Seattle for FOUR YEARS. From what I’ve heard, they’re LAIDBACK but they can also be ANALYSTICAL if you get on their bad side. When I think of them, I usually think of LONESOME DAY BY BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN.

HIGHLIGHTS.

27 years old but already a career switcher : formerly a software engineering major at google turned hydrologist at noaa — yeah the world works in interesting ways ; moved into west point homes TWO years ago ; laidback & easy going, quick to smile and always willing to extend a helping hand ; stress-baker bc stress running is bad for his knees.

THE STORY.

— born in fresno. dad is an OR surgeon, mom is a nurse. they had a busy work schedule but they made it work. when carson was about 5 they moved north to portland following an opportunity that allowed both his parents more flexible hours to spend more time with family, and carson. he spend much of his childhood splashing around in the ocean, hanging out on beaches, barely stepping foot inside, not even when it rained.

— but eventually the good weather waned and it wasn’t because of any emotional abandonment that carson found himself drawn to computers, but the family’s busy lifestyle certainly lend itself to carson entertaining himself when possible. that love for the digital only grew as the internet and digital era began its rise, seemingly right in tandem with carson’s own growth.

— it probably wasn’t surprising that carson ended up perusing a software engineering degree when it came time for college. what was surprising was he chose a school on the east coast. for someone who valued family ( and still deeply does ) and was a bit of a home-body it was a surprise, but carson figured it was time to step out of his comfort zone.

— had the usual college experience, graduated on time in 4 years and was lucky enough to land a position with a large firm right out of college. worked remotely, though said firm was headquartered in nyc.

— work however... was not nearly as full-filling or interesting as he would like it to be, even after landing a coveted position at google. he stuck it out for two years, helped along by a lucrative salary before he decided a change was much needed.

— it was visiting a friend back in seattle, seeing the ocean again, remembering there are much greater forces at work here. after some thought, he ended applying for graduate school, ultimately getting his masters in hydrology & hydrodynamics from the university of washington - seattle.

— graduated two years ago from the program, and started working for noaa in their seattle office not long after that!!

PRESENT DAY.

— carson moved into an apartment in west point homes in july 2020 ( 2 years ago ). before that, while he went to UW, he lived in the swindelbrook st apartments. from then it’s was easy to settle right in. the career change has done wonders for him --- it’s still a lot of computer based worked, but more data and modeling focused which he loves. he still dabbles in web design through his free lancing which is constantly growing --- especially with a surprising request from the kraken, the newest nhl team.

— works primarily at noaa’s office, not too far of a commute from his apartment. even so, he appreciates the quiet times in the morning and evenings. sometimes he employs his electric longboard, but most of the time he takes the bus. though occasionally, he does just work from the apartments where he has a pretty slick set up in his bedroom. he also sets up in various nearby cafes too. there are some perfectly fine mondays and fridays that he just can’t be bothered by the commute either lol. change of scenery is important for carson to work efficiently, otherwise he gets bored.

— stress baking was something that he clung onto early in his high school days and much more so when he moved to college. it reminded him of home and his mother’s baking —often with unique nigerian influences. carson is no chef, not like some of his friends, but he isn’t living on pb&j either. it’s not uncommon for carson to look up where a certain nigerian food truck is and hunt it down either.

— hobbies : baking, indoor rock climbing, various gym workouts, running, a bit of freelance web design, longboarding, people watching, karaoke ( not good but spirited )

— hangouts : various different coffeeshops near his aparment ( or near his office building ), nearby gym, a nearby indoor climbing gym, any park

— carson is generally very pleased with where he’s ended up now. it’s still far from having a life plan but steady income, a nice place to live, and a job he enjoys is definitely a good foundation to build more things on.

PERSONALITY.

— + laidback, adaptable, intelligent, helpful ; - analytical, disorganized, forgetful, hyper-focused or aloof ( rarely in between )

— carson is a friendly person whose presence often puts others at ease. he’s always quick to smile, even at those he doesn’t know. has a tendency to think of everyone as a friend until proven he should think otherwise --- or is biased based on his current friends’ opinions.

— definitely not high strung and likes to think he requires very little to be happy. easy-going, relaxed, even when under pressure. occasionally, his easy-going nature can be misconstrued as not caring but that is certainly not true.

— always meets his deadlines, though more often than not, the bulk of his work is cranked out directly before said deadline. good at multi-tasking but his time management could definitely use a little tlc, even still.

— extremely disorganized. not necessarily in a physical sense. his apartment is neat enough, and he doesn’t like feeling like his space is messy --- definitely not a help to an already disorganized mind. carson is incredible disorganized in his thinking and often in his execution. carson needs many things going at once so he can jump from one to another if he needs to. sometimes he can work for hours on one project, other times, it’s something new every 20 minutes. breaks are crucial for times like the latter.

— a helpful personality. doesn’t turn away from people in need and likes feeling needed : hence his willingness to constantly extend a hand to those who need one. seattle is a busy place and sometimes, people fall down. lots of people might walk by but carson will stop, even if he’s running late.

— likes to make friends, but that being said, when he doesn’t like someone he’s very internal about it. he believes in being polite to save face --- which sometimes is great, other times... not so much.

— a hard working himself, he doesn’t like when people don’t try to do their best ( regardless of the outcome ). he especially doesn’t like if someone says they’ll do something and then proceeds to not do it.

— level-headed to a fault. keeps things bottled up sometimes to “save face.” stress-reliever baking to the rescue ahaha.

APPEARANCE.

— 6′2″,  200 lbs, muscular from the result of a highly active lifestyle outside an “office job”

— hair often buzzed into a fade, stubble/scruff more common than not though he never sports an actual beard.

— 20/20 vision but uses blue light glasses while he works. consider this look.

— style : loves a good pattern and his shirts are often patterned or textured. slim fit pants, but not tight. clothes that are easy to move around in. loves all colors. loves all neutrals. definitely wouldn’t consider himself fashionable, but has decent taste.

— tattoos & scars : no tattoos, a large collection of various scars everywhere from an active childhood and an ability to try anything at least once.

— quirks : always moving in some way ( tapping fingers, a jumping knee, a tapping heel or foot ), has a tendency to look deeply focused, a “friendly” face that fits his helpful demeanor, quick to smile, very good at hiding when he’s displeased

— probably goes without saying but the look in all my graphics w the scruff & rainbow jacket is simply The Vibe. see this gifset.

MISC. HEADCANONS.

— certainly a home baker, nothing special or fancy. various cookies, brownies, various cookie bars, the such. everyone loves his brownies and says they’re the best ( irony is carson doesn’t really like brownies ). doesn’t care so much for presentation. not really one to sell his baked goods, though neighbors always know when they might be saddled with the consequences of carson’s stress baking when the fragrant aromas start creeping down the hall. doesn’t like being told what to bake. he accepts suggestions but they might not come to fruition until weeks later. it’s just a good stress reliever for him that isn’t as hard on his knees as running is. kinda wants to dabble in bread making. kneading sounds like it’d be a great stress reliever too.

— a messy baker though. the kitchen looks like a disaster when he’s through with it, but he’s very good with the clean up. it can be just as satisfying too.

— loves dogs but doesn’t want to commit to getting one. his past apartments didn’t allow pets anyway

— naturally an early riser dating back to college. his work schedule is notably flexible so long as he works his 8 hours a day / finishes his tasks. however, carson likes to keep a schedule and finish his work with plenty of hours left in the day to do other things he finds fun. never one to finally get on by 10 am, it’s not uncommon to see carson set up by 7 am for a finish time around 3 or 4, depending on how many breaks he took.

— has mild adhd. mostly manifests in small quirks and stretches of hyperfocus followed by unfocused periods. struggles to explain things in a logical way, though it is something he’s working on and had to work on for work. commenting out his code has helped him to find logic in his thoughts. doesn’t write things down, and was never the type to keep a planner. tries to keep to-do lists bc crossing things off is satisfying but it hasn’t taken quite yet.

— an analytical mind always likes to try to put things into a logical perspective, cause and effect, things like that. that being said, is in touch with his emotional side and rarely turns away from somewhere in need. it’s lead to a few times of him being taken advantage of but the fact hasn’t tinted carson’s life outlook.

— a very fast typist. in part a remnant of his software engineering degree, also in part due to a lifetime of growing up around computers. he had a typist job in high school too, something he kept up through college until he started landing relevant internships. carson can be very picky with his keyboards though, often opting for specialty ones with that make a nice clicky noise and feel solid to type and code with. had to see multiple laptops before he finally settled on one he liked ( a pc, not a mac ).

— lover of late 90s early 00s rock music. what he grew up listening to. it keeps him going during the work day and for most other things too.

— infinite iced lattes made throughout the day with the espresso machine that’s in his apartment.

— multi-sport athlete growing up : soccer, basketball, lax, football, track, hockey...  didn’t play during college, just on various club or intramural teams. though he took his time playing seriously and loved it, he knew he was never going to be good enough to even consider going pro. religiously follows all the major sports in the seattle area and is always happy to go to a game. loves the atmosphere of sports games.

— still active. loves to surf, at the gym on a regular basis, trying new things ( one of which was indoor climbing which he loves now ), running though not too much bc his knees hate him for it. daily routine includes morning workouts/yoga session and evening walks ( no matter the weather ).

— engages a lot and surfs social media a lot, but rarely posts on platforms himself. more likely to post on his stories than actual posts themselves.

OOC.

hello everyone !! i’m o ( 21+, est, they / them ). just happy to be here and vibe <3. i started a list of flexible plot ideas HERE, so be sure to check those out. discord is my preferred contact method so feel free to reach out there if you have any ideas or are feeling inspired !!