#hmmm last edit april 22

[pearl-kite]

actually maybe I do need to journal a little bit, some existential dread just came and obliterated me out of left field

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Former Vice President Joe Biden’s team is talking a big game about an expanded electoral map with Arizona, Georgia and Texas in play, even though those states haven’t voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in two decades.

So let’s talk about just how feasible this strategy is. How competitive are those three states at this point? And what’s more, how does this strategy complement — or counteract — Democratic efforts to pick up Midwestern battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, or perennial swing states like Florida?

First up, Arizona. What do we think? Does Biden have a shot there?

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Of the three states we’re looking at, I think it’s pretty clear that Arizona is the most in play — and that Biden may even have the lead there, based on the limited polling we have.

President Trump won Arizona by 3.5 points in 2016 while losing the national popular vote by 2 points. So it stands to reason that if Biden is up 6 points or so nationally, Arizona is a toss-up, and that’s before we consider other things that may have shifted between 2016 and now.

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): I agree, although I have been surprised at the degree to which Arizona seems to have moved to the left since 2016.

sarah: What other evidence do we have that Arizona has moved to the left since 2016?

geoffrey.skelley: Well, unlike in Georgia and Texas, Democrats actually won major statewide contests in Arizona in 2018 — including the state’s marquee Senate race — and election turnout was nearly as high as the 2016 presidential contest, meaning that performance may reflect a broader shift toward the Democrats rather than just a side effect of the midterms’ blue wave.

nrakich: G. Elliott Morris of The Economist had an interesting newsletter item recently that showed how much various states have moved left or right since 2016, based on the 2020 polls so far. Arizona had the starkest movement.

And Geoffrey’s right that, if Arizona were still 6 points redder than the nation and Biden led by 6 points nationally, we’d expect polls of Arizona to show a tied race. But Biden has consistently led in Arizona polls so far.

Biden has the edge in Arizona polling so far

Presidential general election polls of Arizona conducted since March 1

Dates Pollster Biden Trump Margin May 18-22 HighGround 47% 45% D+2 May 10-14 Redfield & Wilton 45 41 D+4 May 9-11 OH Predictive Insights 50 43 D+8 April 7-8 OH Predictive Insights 52 43 D+9 March 10-15 Marist 47 46 D+1 March 11-14 Monmouth 46 43 D+3 March 6-11 Latino Decisions 50 42 D+8 March 3-4 OH Predictive Insights 49 43 D+6 March 2-3 Public Policy Polling 48 47 D+1

Source: Polls

On the other hand, I’m still somewhat skeptical of the idea Arizona has moved that much to the left. Some of the higher-quality polls, like from Marist and Monmouth, do have the race closer to a tie, whereas the polls suggesting Arizona has gotten significantly more Democratic (e.g., by showing Biden up by 8 points) are not coming from gold-standard pollsters.

sarah: One other thing about Arizona that makes me think it might be fertile ground for Democrats in 2020 is that Democratic Senate challenger Mark Kelly seems to have the upper hand against Sen. Martha McSally, and if that race ends up close — or flips blue — that bodes well for Democrats in the long run, as it’s more evidence that Arizona might be becoming more of a blue state.

nrakich: Yeah, Kelly has been a monster fundraiser. He’s taken in more than $31 million since the beginning of last year.

Although I don’t think a down-ballot race is likely to drive turnout for the presidential. If anything, Kelly might run ahead of Biden because of his money and great bio.

geoffrey.skelley: That’s fair, but it’s worth remembering that every Senate seat that was up in 2016 went for the party that carried the state at the presidential level, so the fact a Democrat is polling that well in the Senate contest is probably a decent sign for the party’s chances as a whole.

sarah: For sure. It’s less that a down-ballot race would affect the top of the ticket, but more that Arizona really might go blue in 2020.

It sounds like we agree with the Biden campaign’s assessment that Arizona is in play, so does it make sense for them to campaign there?

Or is there an argument to be made that they should keep an eye on it, but maybe not commit fully?

nrakich: I mean … both?

It’s a spectrum.

I definitely think Biden should spend more time and money in Arizona than in Georgia and Texas. But I still think Arizona is unlikely to be the tipping-point state, and Biden should spend even more time and money in must-win states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

geoffrey.skelley: Oh, they should definitely fully commit. Arizona gives them another possible path to 270 in the Electoral College. Arizona’s worth 11 electoral votes, so it could sub in for, say, Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) if Trump were to narrowly carry the Badger State.

nrakich: Now you have me questioning myself, Geoffrey! *whips out calculator*

Hmmm, Florida and Wisconsin were 3 points to the right of the nation in 2016. Arizona, as discussed, was 6. That’s not a big gap at all; maybe they do converge this year?

geoffrey.skelley: Another thing to keep in mind is that Democrats have been making inroads in the suburbs and dominating urban areas. Maricopa County (Phoenix and its environs) was the most populous county in the country to vote for Trump in 2016, but Trump only won it narrowly by about 3 points, and in 2018, Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema carried it by 4 points. So Democrats may be hoping for a repeat in 2020. Win Maricopa, win Arizona.

sarah: OK, it sounds like focusing on Arizona is smart for the Biden campaign, but maybe we’re a bit more skeptical of Georgia and Texas, the other two states the campaign has included in its “expanded” electoral map?

nrakich: Yeah. Georgia was 7 points to the right of the nation in 2016, and Texas was 11 points to the right. Given long-term trends, they have both probably moved a little to the left, but they have further to go than Arizona.

That said, Biden may well win those states — take a look at the polling there:

Georgia polls are extremely close

Presidential general election polls of Georgia conducted since March 1

Dates Pollster Biden Trump Margin May 16-18 Civiqs 48% 47% D+1 May 11-13 BK Strategies 46 48 R+2 May 4-7 Public Opinion Strategies 47 46 D+1 April 25-27 Cygnal 44 45 R+1 March 31-April 1 Battleground Connect 46 48 R+2

Source: Polls

Can Biden shock Trump in Texas?

Presidential general election polls of Texas conducted since March 1

Dates Pollster Biden Trump Margin May 8-10 Emerson College 48% 52% R+3 April 27-28 Public Policy Polling 47 46 D+1 April 18-27 University of Texas at Tyler 43 43 EVEN April 10-19 YouGov 44 49 R+5

Source: Polls

But if he does, he will probably already have clinched the Electoral College in the Midwest, Arizona or Florida.

geoffrey.skelley: Georgia is interesting. On the one hand, Biden could target the increasingly Democratic suburbs of Atlanta. On the other hand, it’s one of the most inelastic states in the country — meaning voters there are among the most likely to stick with their usual party regardless of which way the rest of the country swings — in part because its white voters remain predominantly Republican and its large black population is heavily Democratic, and there just isn’t a ton of movement there.

Additionally, if Democrats couldn’t carry Georgia in 2018 when the electoral environment was very pro-Democratic, that makes me skeptical they can win it in a presidential year, when partisan conditions could be more balanced. That said, if Biden is winning by 6 or 7 points nationally, that might be enough to put Georgia in his column, as Trump only carried it by 5 points in 2016. But as Nathaniel was saying earlier, that’s not a situation where Georgia is an integral part of Biden winning 270 electoral votes. It’s gravy at that point, though maybe it helps Democrats in the two Senate contests there.

nrakich: Yeah, Georgia is definitely inelastic. But on the other hand, Georgia has inched leftward (relative to the nation as a whole) in the last three presidential elections. And I think there is room for more suburban whites to move toward Democrats, not only in Georgia but also in Texas and Arizona.

sarah: That’s a good point, and I think a real question determining whether Georgia and Texas will be competitive is just how much the trends of 2018 — namely, suburban white voters moving to the Democratic Party — hold true.

This is an extreme hypothetical, but earlier this year, Nathaniel looked at what would happen if a state’s presidential vote was based strictly on how rural or urban the state is, and he found that Georgia would remain in the R column, but both Arizona and Texas would swing blue:

What if the urban-rural divide dictated the 2020 election?

The results of a hypothetical presidential election if a state’s urbanization were the only factor, based on the relationship between FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index and 2016 presidential election results

State Result State Result Alabama R+16.0 Montana R+30.8 Alaska R+27.3 Nebraska R+8.2 Arizona D+6.1 Nevada D+12.3 Arkansas R+20.5 New Hampshire R+11.9 California D+17.7 New Jersey D+18.3 Colorado D+4.2 New Mexico R+12.2 Connecticut D+7.6 New York D+22.5 Delaware D+2.3 North Carolina R+6.6 Florida D+8.3 North Dakota R+23.2 Georgia R+3.6 Ohio D+0.6 Hawaii D+3.3 Oklahoma R+11.6 Idaho R+16.1 Oregon R+1.5 Illinois D+10.3 Pennsylvania D+4.1 Indiana R+5.5 Rhode Island D+11.6 Iowa R+16.1 South Carolina R+9.4 Kansas R+9.3 South Dakota R+27.4 Kentucky R+13.6 Tennessee R+8.3 Louisiana R+8.6 Texas D+4.5 Maine R+23.4 Utah D+1.7 Maryland D+11.5 Vermont R+25.9 Massachusetts D+13.2 Virginia D+1.0 Michigan R+0.3 Washington D+3.8 Minnesota R+4.9 West Virginia R+22.4 Mississippi R+25.1 Wisconsin R+8.3 Missouri R+8.2 Wyoming R+33.6

Source: American Community Survey

What do we make of this? Might Texas actually turn blue before Georgia?

nrakich: We have a tendency to think about elections through the lens of the decisive voters in the previous election, which for 2018 was suburbanites. But as I showed in that urbanization article, Georgia does have a lot of rural voters too, and there is still room for them to move even more toward Trump. So, actually, maybe those two trends will cancel each other out.

geoffrey.skelley: OK, but Georgia was still notably closer to going for Clinton than Texas — Trump won Georgia by 5 points and Texas by 9 points, which is a fairly sizable difference. And while Georgia may be more inelastic than Texas, Texas is not that elastic. Our 2018 elasticity score for Texas was 1.03 — not that far above the baseline of 1 — while Georgia’s was 0.90.

Texas is changing, but Barack Obama lost it by 12 points in 2008, which was a really good environment overall for Democrats.

nrakich: Yeah, there’s just too far for it to go.

geoffrey.skelley: As is often the case with questions about when Texas could go blue, it depends on how fast the political environment changes, but it still probably won’t happen until sometime after 2020, given what we know currently.

sarah: People seem to agree that the Biden campaign shouldn’t invest too much in Georgia and Texas if it comes at the expense of other battleground states in the Midwest or Florida. Is that fair?

nrakich: I think there’s a case for keeping your options open in Georgia. But the Biden campaign would be foolish to invest significantly in Texas. If Texas votes Democratic, Biden will already have won virtually every other swing state and, therefore, the election. It’s simply not a part of his path to 270 electoral votes — more like a part of his path to 400.

Also, Texas is an extremely expensive state in which to campaign, so it just wouldn’t be an efficient use of his money.

geoffrey.skelley: If Trump really is doing a lot worse among older voters than in 2016, it would be foolish for Biden to abandon Florida, which has one of the oldest populations in the country.

I could see reasons for Democrats to worry about Florida being a mirage after they failed to win the gubernatorial and Senate races there in 2018, but it’s just been too close in recent presidential elections to actually give up on it. Trump only won it by 1 point in 2016!

nrakich: Oh, I have strong feelings about Florida.

sarah:

nrakich: Florida is definitely still a swing state; it’s not as inelastic as the 2018 results implied. The Democratic nominees for governor and senator, Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson, still outperformed Hillary Clinton in most counties; they just underperformed Clinton in a few key areas, especially Miami-Dade County. (This article by Florida Democratic consultant Matthew Isbell does a great job showing that.)

The reason for this is probably that their Republican opponents, Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott, did a lot better among Hispanic voters than Trump did. According to exit polls, Trump got 35 percent of the Latino vote in Florida in 2016, while DeSantis got 44 percent and Scott got 45 percent. In 2020, I don’t think Trump will be able to match DeSantis’s and Scott’s numbers.

So if Biden can pair Clinton’s performance among Hispanic Floridians with Nelson’s and Gillum’s among other voters, he can absolutely win Florida.

geoffrey.skelley: We’ve talked a lot about how Biden might be able to expand his electoral map, but he can’t afford to give up on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2016, they were collectively decided by 78,000 votes, and who wins them in 2020 will likely be consequential as well.

The bigger questions in the Midwest and Rust Belt are probably whether to invest in Iowa and Ohio, which Trump carried by about 9 and 8 points, respectively. Those two states might be harder for Democrats to win back considering how they swung hard toward the GOP in 2016 after backing Obama in 2012.

That said, Iowa does have some history of being pretty swingy. It’s also cheaper to advertise in Iowa than Ohio, and if we’re talking down-ballot races, there is more at stake there, too. Potentially four competitive House races and a Senate seat in Iowa, whereas Ohio has no Senate race and is likely to have only one or two close House races.

nrakich: Yeah, if Biden wants to be an effective president, he’ll need a Democratic Senate. IMO, that means he should give extra credit to Georgia and Iowa when deciding where to allocate his resources.

sarah: The balancing act that the Biden campaign will inevitably have to engage in isn’t entirely clear to me yet. How much will they actually invest in states like Arizona, Georgia and Texas versus doubling down on states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin?

Much of this will inevitably boil down to what the tipping-point state is in 2020, but one thing that’s hard to figure out is how much of the map already realigned in 2016. Put another way, does Biden have his eyes on states like Arizona because winning states like Wisconsin back will be difficult?

nrakich: But I think that’s the needle we need to thread: Arizona might be moving in one direction and Wisconsin in the other, but even in the “realigned” (really more “recalibrated”) 2016 map, Arizona was redder than Wisconsin.

geoffrey.skelley: It’s curious because some of this comes down to the national environment. Maybe Wisconsin is a point or two redder than it was in 2016, but if Biden wins by 4 or 5 points nationally, maybe that’s enough to carry it even if Wisconsin is continuing to move toward the GOP.

But how exactly that plays out in each state is hard to say.

[scoutshonor56]

HOCUS POCUS!

Pick a card, any card…

 Snape, visibly losing patience: “All right…”

Little Donny Dumblefuck: “Five of clubs!”

Snape: “Holy Hufflepuff, are you kidding me!? Are you fucking kidding me!?  Even Weasley can manage this one for Slytherins sake!”

Little Donny: “OK, OK, let me show you the three cups and a chestnut…”

Snape: “You tried that one yesterday and I gave you three chances!  Exactly what can you do?”

Little Donny: “Well, I can make really stupid people believe anything I say…”

Snape: “Oh really – and what is the incantation may I ask?”

Little Donny: “Fake News!”

 Yes, Little Donny wasn’t much of a wizard, and failing that, a pretty inept and lazy magician, but he was blessed with a really stupid and gullible audience.

 I knew we were in trouble early on in this nightmare administration when I first heard blond bimbo/magician’s assistant, Kellyanne Conway, use the phrase “alternative reality” - as in dual reality.  Now there’s a concept you don’t often hear mentioned outside of science fiction or quantum physics.

 But that’s all a little complex for the simpleminded, so like with so much about this merry band of fumblefucks, they had to dumb it down – hmmm, we need a catch phrase, something simple that even he can remember…GOT IT!  FAKE NEWS!

 Now most aspiring despots worth their salt, past and present, follow the first rule of creating an autocracy: control the media; the message to the rabble.  And when dealing with people a little smarter than the Trumpkins, you go with the direct approach: achieve military authority and neuter the free press by force, leaving only one unified, state run media outlet to carefully craft and control the propaganda machine (see N. Korea).

 Aww jeez, that sounds like a lot of work though - let’s just try this: whenever the king hears something he doesn’t like, something critical, or other than outright praise for his greatness, he simply says “FAKE NEWS!”

 “Hmm, I dunno… you think they’ll buy it?  Is anyone really that stupid?”

 “Come on!  Have you seen this crowd?  Hell yes they’ll buy it!”

 You can pick any of countless times over the last three and a half years that this has been proven true, so today let’s stick with the current topic on everyone’s mind – the Covid-19 virus.

 Last week I read a sadly horrifying and grim editorial by Timothy Egan in the NY Times (you know, that “failing” news outlet), which pretty much could be viewed as a report card on the U.S. response to the virus so far, and how our once great nation is now viewed by the rest of the modern world - I highly encourage you to read it.  Among the statistics sited:

 Within 1.3 million reported cases, the United States, just 5% of the world’s population, has 33% of the sick.  As we approach 100,000 deaths, we’re also at the front of the pack in that catagory.

 Globally, the average death is 34 people per million. In the United States, it’s more than six times higher – 232 per million.

 By the end of April, new cases in S. Korea were down to less than 10 a day.  In the United States at that time, the pandemic raged at a daily rate of more than 25,000 newly sick.

 And yet, here in the United States we spend more on health care, per capita, than any other modern, developed nation.

 Brief interlude here: even as I typed this recap, I thought, looking around today and reading the news - can we really still call ourselves the “United” States?

 But that’s another story – meanwhile, this cheap shyster with clown hair and more than a few parts loose in his dusty cranium continues to insist his government has done a “spectacular job” with the Covid-19 pandemic.  “And I’ll tell you, the whole world is excited watching us because we’re leading the world.”

 What – in doing a shitty job?

 So again I have to ask myself, as I have so many times during this sham of an administration: “How does he perform and maintain this level of mind control without some mass hypnosis, or serious pharmaceuticals in the drinking water?”  How could anyone continue to put their faith in this petulant, narcissistic moron who at any given moment can state that “I never did that”, or “I never said that”, when every one of these incidences of ignorance and buffoonery are filmed and recorded, broadcast for all to see daily?  You’re the fucking president, not the schoolyard gossip. Everything you say and do concerning this country is recorded!   No, this isn’t an episode of one of your reality shows, where we can creatively – and I mean creatively - make sense of it later in the editing suite.  

 Throughout most of January, Captain Assclown wasn’t even mentioning the virus, until finally, on the 22nd, when he proclaimed “We have it totally under control.  It’s one person coming in from China.  It’s going to be just fine.” By mid-February it became something that “will go away by April”, magically dissipating like old snow with the spring warmth.  On the 24th it was “Very much under control in the USA…”  He also tweeted, “Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”  While addressing a group of African American leaders at the White House on the 27th, he once again turned into a mystical Nostradamus, saying, “It’s going to disappear.  One day – it’s like a miracle - it will disappear.”  

 In Charleston, N.C. on the 28th, at his last Trumpapalooza RA-RA Rally (before the shit really hit the fan and lockdowns started) his rabid, red meat crowd was told the whole thing was simply the latest hoax, perpetrated by the Dems to finally bring him down.

 “Watch the tiny hands closely – nothing up my sleeve, aaaaand Abra Cadabra, GONE!”  

 Watch out though, remember who’s driving the car! Hang on!  In mid-March famous demolition derby driver Donny Crash, who insists on not wearing a helmet, comes out with this head-spinning, WTF gearshift moment: “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”

 Sigh - you can’t make this shit up.

 How about a current assessment, Crash?  Glad to! Just last week (May 8) Donny tells the press, “I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests.  This is going to go away without a vaccine.  It’s going to go away and we’re not going to see it again.” Wow…

 Is there anything this sack of soggy, mashed French fries with clown makeup could say that would make his followers pause and think, “Hmmm - I don’t know about that one…”?  If he said the Earth was flat, would they believe it?  

 Oh, never mind – we all know the answer to that.

 This goes way beyond loyalty to a person or a party; it’s much closer to zealous and blind religious fealty.  This high priest of pandemonium and bullshit once again has absolutely no plan or clue; he makes decisions about this country like he’s approaching an All-U-Can-Eat fast food buffet: “Let’s see, gimme a Whopper first, and one of those fried pies!  No, nope, I’ll take the bucket of chicken with the mashed potatoes!  Nooo, wait a minute!  Give me the jumbo McDonald’s fries, yeah, that’s it!  DOH, I changed my mind, I want the McNuggets first! Yeah, gimme the McNuggets!  OH, OH, what are those, over there behind the chicken!?”

His thoughts randomly bounce and pop around erratically in his head like farts in a bathtub.  His brain is a broken pinball machine with a dozen paddles and no hole.

 And I can think of no better example of his fans than a quote I recently read from washed-up actor who hasn’t been in a decent movie since 1972’s “Deliverance”, Jon Voight – who surprise, surprise was last November awarded the National Medal of Arts and National Humanities by the White House.  That’s right my feeble-minded minions – say something flattering about me and you might just get a shiny prize!  Or maybe even a job on my team!  For some reason there always seems to be an opening…

 So let’s crack that Trump loving skull, raise the hood, and take a peek at the gears, hoses, wiring, and pistons that drive your average everyday Trump acolyte:

 “We see President Trump as a magnificent soul, raising up this nation… He will go down as the historic president of this millennium. He will be etched in stone with a gold medal, a hero and a president of the United States who won the battle. The war of 2020.  He is Donald Trump.  God bless.”

 I rest my case.

[5917]

All even numbers on that 'distract' ask meme you just reblogged please!

Sorry, sorry! This 2+ months late and I’m really sorry. Not having internet for my laptop really sucks and I finally decided to do this on my iPod. (and work has been tiring. it’s my first job so I’m still adjusting) Anyway, here you are! And thank you for asking!!!

2: Think of the last person who hurt you; do you forgive them?

I can’t really think of the last person who hurt me but sure, I forgive them. Oh, but maybe it was my grandma when she told me my writing was pointless and a waste of time? Hmmm, well I still forgive her then

4: What’s something you really want right now?

Chocolate, cold weather, a smart phone, to be able to visit my dad in the hospital, to move back to Europe, concentration to finish editing G3 and write a query letter (a lot of things but these are the most important ones)

6: Do you like the beach?

Yes! I love it!

8: What’s the background on your cell?

On my phone it’s one of those generic ones that’s already loaded. My iPod had one of @eicinic’s pictures

10: Do you like your phone?

It’s an old model flip phone so absolutely not :)

12: Who was the last person whose phone number you added to your contacts?

On my iPod it was my neighbor’s and on my phone, I don’t remember. My sister added a friend and Wells Fargo to each device respectfully more recently though

14: Which hurts the most, physical or emotional pain?

Personally I think emotional cause sometimes physical pain can feel nice but emotional pain never feels nice

16: Are you tired?

No

18: Are they a relative?

My first phone contact is not my relative

20: When did you last talk to the last person you shared a kiss with?

Never kissed anyone

22: Would you kiss the last person you kissed again?

Never kissed anyone

24: Is there a certain quote you live by?

Not really

26: Do you have any tattoos?

Not yet

28: Next time you will kiss someone on the lips?

I don’t know

30: Think to the last person you kissed, have you ever kissed them on a couch?

Never kissed anyone

32: Do you have a friend of the opposite sex you can talk to?

Yes? We haven’t talked in a while so I’m not really sure

34: Has anyone ever told you you have pretty eyes?

Nope

36: Were you single on Valentines Day?

Yup

38: What do your friends call you?

Nyx. I use to have a nickname from my given name and my Spanish side of the family calls me Nena

40: Have you ever cried over a text?

Mmm, I don’t think so

42: What is it from?

I have many so I don’t know which one my last one is from but they’re all from work. My largest though, is ok the back of my ankle and is about the size of ¼ of a dollar bill. I got it when a cart ran into the back of my leg and it’s been there for a couple weeks now :P

44: Who was the last person you were on the phone with?

My grandma

46: Do you wear hats if your having a bad hair day?

Nope, just go with a bun

48: Do you make supper for your family?

Not usually

50: Top 3 web-pages?

Google drive, ao3, and twitter in no particular order

52: Does anything on your body hurt?

My muscles a tiny bit and I’ve got a few bruisers that hurt when I poke them

54: What was the last beverage you spilled on yourself?

Water I think

56: What do you usually do first in the morning?

Check the time and date in my iPod

58: Think back to January 2007, were you single?

Always been single so yes

60: When’s the next time you will give someone a BIG hug?

Maybe in April if I see my dad again?

62: When will be the next time you text someone?

I have no idea

64: What were you doing at 8 this morning.

I think…I was ready some Harry Potter fics (I’ve been obsessed the past months) or making tea

66: Is there one person in your life that can always make you smile?

My sister and dad and usually friends

68: What was your last thought before you went to bed last night?

I was extremely tired and the light was bothering me?

70: How many windows are open on your computer?

5

72: What is your ringtone?

Just Guitar for contacts and Classic Bell for unknown numbers

74: Where is your Mum right now?

Died

76: Have you held hands with somebody in the past three days?

I don’t think so, maybe my dad or sister? (I don’t really know people)

78: Do you remember who you had a crush on in year 7?

I don’t think I had a crush on anyone in grade 7

80: Have you ever fallen asleep in someones arms?

As a baby but otherwise I don’t think so. I fell asleep on someone’s lap once

82: Has anyone seen you in your underwear in the last 3 days?

Myself

84: You’re drunk and yelling at hot guys/girls out of your car window, you’re with?

I don’t think I’ll ever be drunk but I’m guessing my sister

86: What was the most eventful thing that happened last time you went to see a movie?

Ugh, I don’t remember the last time I went to the movies (I’ll be going on Tuesday though). Umm, maybe I was almost late? Eventful things don’t happen at the movies to me

88: If someone gave you $1,000 to burn a butterfly over a candle, would you?

Is it dead?

90: Have you ever trusted someone too much?

Mmmm, I think so. Does that time in 5th grade when I told my friends my crush on a boy and they threatened to tell him if I didn’t do what they wanted count?

92: Do you get along with girls?

I guess. I think so.

94: Does sex mean love?

No

96: Have you ever kissed anyone with a lip ring?

Never kissed anyone so nope

98: Everybody has somebody that makes them happy, do you?

Not really, I don’t think so. I mean people in general who interact with me and do something funny or pleasant or are nice make me happy but no, not someone who just makes me happy by being right there

100: Who was the last person that you pinky promise?

I don’t actually know but probably my sister…or my dad?

[cba01234567890abc]

Hello ^^

I got tagged by @yourlilimaxilove thank you for tagging me ^^ (I will try to keep it short since it’s late z.z) edit: I guess not

1. Nickname: Alex

2. Star sign: I’m a Cancer

3. Height: 167cm (I believe that’s 5′6″)

4. Time right now: 1:55AM

5. Favorite Music Artist: Hmmm... that’s I hard one... I like so many. I guess Two Steps from Hell is the first one that comes to mind.

6. Song stuck in your head: Believe in Nexus! *Yu Gi Oh new movie due on the 27th :D  .... also, It’s raining men XD (when my phone notifies me of a new chatroom (my friend is horrible for ‘introducing’ me to this app now x.x I have to find out what happens now, can’t wait until the next break) *she’s not really horrible but she rubbed it in my face while I had it on my ‘postponed’ list lol *MYSME :P

7. Last movie watched: The Boss (I settled with that the day before yesterday since I could not find Koe no Katachi Y.Y I guess I’ll have to wait for it until April (I think that’s when it’ll be out)

8. Last TV show watched: Gintama

9. What are you wearing right now: PJs

10. When did you create your blog: About 3 years ago

11. What kind of stuff do you post: Mostly anime but generally everything I like/am interested ^^; I made this blog for myself after all lol

12. Do you have any other blogs: Not really mine but I have access to @mangatranslationsus since I am a part of the group

13. Do you get asks regularly: Nope ^^

14. Why did you choose your URL: Hmmm well... I first used this username for LoL ‘IStormyRavenI’ - Storm from X-Men and Raven from Teen Titans *since it was taken I just decided to ‘frame’ it with two ‘i’s XD

15. Gender: Female

16. Hogwarts House: I don’t remember (my friend had told me but I forgot - if I feel like it I’ll just edit it in later ~.~)

17. Pokemon Team: Mystic

18. Favorite Color: Red & Blue (as well as the combination purple :P )

19. Average hours of sleep: Lately, I only get up after having slept for at least 7h

20. Lucky Number: 7

21. Favorite Character(s): Break (Pandora Hearts - though I haven’t read it ever since he died...) & the Undertaker :D from Kuroshitsuji  (which is weird for me since I have a huge weak spot for red heads XP)

22. How many blankets do you sleep with: Two

23. Dream job: I don’t think this applies to me - I’m already at the starting positions of two jobs I want but I still have at least 4 years of studying ahead of me - currently working as a page (Library) & an interpreter (Gonna get my translator certificate this summer :> ) and McD’s (which I am preparing  my notice of resignation - because I also want to have a life ^^)

24. Following: Too many to keep up with, I used to talk with a few but now not really - I may consider creating a different blog/account so I don’t have to see everything  ^^; 

I’ll be tagging @miyukousawa since she’s the only person I’ve ever tagged before and feel okay to bother lol

[patrickwmarsh]

One last promotion of my new editions of the Greenland Diaries: Days 1 – 100 and Days 101 – 140, which are available through my Square Store. I’ll stop mindlessly promoting them pretty soon. I think. Maybe. Probably never. Beep. Boop. Promoting robot.

My plan for my self-publishing exploits was to write the long-delayed sequel to Beware the Ills, but that isn’t going to happen. I have too much going on. I never meant for the book to be a series either, I just sort of copped out when people started asking for a sequel. I’ll get it done one of these days, but not this fall. Sorry for the disappointment. Between the film, the 48 Hour Film Project, and other things (family, wife, kids, dog) I don’t think I’ll have time to give the story the attention it deserves.

I will be releasing an omnibus of my short stories, with new additions to the collection. I’m tired of selling three different short story books, so I’ll just pancake them all together, give them some new editing, and include fresh tales for the returning reader. I’m going to call the collection Monsters, Monsters, Everywhere. It is coming in September. More details forthcoming.

I really want to give my blog a little bit more love and start releasing a serialized story on here again in 500 work chunks, but I’m so low on time to do these things that I worry about releasing an inferior product (business jargon has officially meshed with my artistic perspective since I’m trying to live off of it). I might publish Chains on here, and maybe try to continue the story since I love it dearly. Hmmm. Yes. Yes. I like that. And yes, I was stroking my beard when I wrote those words, just like a super villain.

This Saturday, April 27th from 1 – 6 pm I’ll be at Number 12 Cider in Minneapolis selling my stories at the Books and Beer Pop-up Bookstore. These are always awesome events. They’re kind of a perfect combination for obvious reasons (insert generic writer stereotype). I’ll be having another, more informative post on Thursday about it.

Cyberpunk is starting to really grip my soul. I love the genre more and more, probably because it is a realistic echo to the world we are currently living in. I would say about 60% of the stories I’m creating these days are in this setting. It is a very versatile place to base a narrative. Judging by the volumes of Cyberpunk fiction being produced and released on Amazon, well, I’m hardly alone in my fascination.

Jottings:

Chrono Trigger still rocks my socks. One of the best games ever, by far. I have it for my DS/3DS and it is amazing.

Just found out Akira is on Hulu. Time to traumatize my Stepsons with another dark anime.

Is any game more atmospheric than Luigi’s Mansion 1 or 2? I know fear is a quick way to establish an emotional commitment to a setting, but these games make me feel like I’m really stalking the rooms looking for ghosts.

A new comic book store opened next to my house. They’re still getting organized (the place looks a little post-apocalyptic), but I’m eager to introduce my kids to the glory of such a world.

I love my family.

The pop culture apocalypse is coming. Game of Thrones is ending. So is Avengers. So is the original trope of Star Wars. Yeah. BOOM.

Everyone have a safe and healthy week.

Monday Musings 4/22 One last promotion of my new editions of the Greenland Diaries: Days 1 – 100 and…