#election 2024 distraction polls

[poetry-protest-pornography]

my family almost all prefer no show socks, which I feel is incorrect.

please rb for maximum silliness

[bisexualbaker]

Temp Check

Okay, it is or will soon be past noon in most of the US on November 5th, 2024, AKA Voting Day.

(Vote vote vote vote!)

[qqueenofhades]

Walz was my top choice, but seeing Republicans SEETHING that she didn't pick Shapiro confirms it for me! A man who gets approval from both AOC and Manchin and seemingly singlehandedly freed Democrats from the shackles of "when they go low we go high", his experiences with education, his fairly progressive policies, and also his personal experience with IVF making the Harris/Walz ticket feel very strong on fighting for reproductive rights- what's this feeling? Is it hope?

Walz is actually incredible on abortion rights (he met Harris when she became the first sitting VP to visit a Planned Parenthood in Minneapolis in March), he's outspoken about how he and his wife only have their children because of IVF, and wow, it's nice to see Democrats actually embracing "basic bodily autonomy for women is a good thing and we're not going to back down/run away from that" as a winning message, because IT IS. Abortion rights are polling some incredibly high number in Florida (Florida!!!) and they are on the ballot there in November, along with other places. And we remember that every time they ARE on the ballot, regardless of how red the state might usually be, they win.

This is a great issue to be running on, to be able to run on so strongly, and Harris/Walz are exceptionally qualified to do it. As for the GOP seething about Shapiro, all this tells me is that they were banking on having their pre-written attack ads ready to go, their "Democrats in Disarray!" psy-ops ready to roll out, and everything else. They don't give a shit about antisemitism and they certainly don't get to talk about suddenly acting like they want anything other than white Christian-evangelistic theocracy, because they don't. So yeah, like... Shapiro is genuinely very strong in many ways and I do like him and will support him if he runs in 8 years, but this was something the GOP/the corporate media were COUNTING on to destabilize the Democratic ticket, and we took that away from them. The stakes are too high to run the risk of any more distractions, whether or not it's fair or justified or any of it. We need to pull together and become watertight if we're doing this unprecedented thing, and because the 2024 election cycle has turned out to be so short (at least in terms of the actual tickets) we cannot, CANNOT afford to be manipulated by bad actors, which in turn means making choices to give them the least opportunity to do so. Which has happened here, and... yes. I think... I think this odd feeling might just be hope, especially as I look at all the Twitter videos of thousands of people in Philly eager to get into the first Harris/Walz rally tonight. Lord love you, Philly. I remember the pure euphoria I felt as those massive batches of blue ballots rolled in in 2020, and I am very, VERY ready to do it again.

[starseedpatriot]

It is the 4th day of 2024

- Epstein’s associate list is catching the world on fire for the elitists and the media is in a tailspin.

- The US is having to literally bomb Iran to try to create a distraction. They apparently have nothing else to offer as a ready made false flag.

- The US Federal debt surpassed $34 trillion and we have a negative GPD. The world outside of the snow globe is avoiding global war and watching the machine lose its economic power.

- Deep blue sanctuary cities are having to lash out at their own party’s Badministration over illegal immigration.

- The black and Latino communities are taking a hard right. Young voters are moving right. Labor unions are moving right. The pendulum is swinging.

- The truth of the 2020 election steal is seeing more light with the release of a 32-page play-by-play on swing state shenanigans.

- The J6 narrative is falling apart and is being shown as a federally organized and perpetrated false flag.

- Jack Smith is failing to, “get Trump,” and may be disqualified as a special prosecutor while the baseless Trump indictments fall apart.

- The machine is so stuck with Dopey Joe as a de facto candidate that it is being forced to prop up deep state marionette Niki Haley, who is currently behind Trump by 55 points in the polls.

- Ukraine is falling apart and Israel is losing its mystique as God’s chosen nation as their ruthless technocracy is exposed.

- The globalist warming climate change narrative is disintegrating as the creeps are forced to hyperbole that is easily seen as ridiculous overstatement.

2024 is four days old. We told you it was going to be a year to remember. So far, so good.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Richard Luscombe at The Guardian:

Joe Biden has said it was his “obligation to the country” to drop out of the 2024 presidential election and prevent what he said would be “a genuine danger to American security” if Donald Trump won a second term of office. The US president gave his reasoning for stepping aside in at-times an emotional interview with CBS News on Sunday, his first since quitting the race in July. He explained that losing the confidence of senior House and Senate Democrats, who feared his unpopularity would hurt them at the polls in November, had weighed on his mind.

Ultimately, Biden said, it was a combination of circumstances that led him to make his momentous decision not to seek re-election, which subsequently saw Vice-President Kamala Harris taking over the Democratic ticket and catching or surpassing Trump in several battleground states, according to new polling data. “Although I have the great honor to be president, I think I have an obligation to the country to do the most important thing you can do, and that is we must, we must, we must defeat Trump,” he said. Biden said he did not take the decision lightly, and made it in consultation with his family at home in Delaware. At the time, he said, he still believed he could win in November, but events had “moved quickly” after weeks of pressure and growing unease inside his party that, at 81, he was too old for the rigors of a second term.

Those fears were heightened by his disastrous debate performance against Trump in June. “I had a really bad day in that debate because I was sick. But I have no serious problem,” Biden said, denying he was impaired by any cognitive issue. “The polls we had showed that it was a neck and neck race, it would have been down to the wire. But what happened was a number of my Democratic colleagues in the House and Senate thought that I was gonna hurt them in the races and I was concerned if I stayed in the race that would be the topic. “I thought it would be a real distraction. [When] I ran the first time I thought of myself being a transition president. I can’t even say how old I am. It’s hard for me to get out of my mouth. Things got moving so quickly. And the combination was… a critical issue for me still… is maintaining this democracy.”

Speaking to CBS News’s Robert Costa on CBS Sunday Morning today for President Joe Biden’s first TV interview since his July 21st withdrawal announcement, Biden stated that the reason why he withdrew 3 weeks ago was due to the fact that he had “an obligation to the country” to defeat Donald Trump by dropping out of the race and endorsing Kamala Harris to be his successor.

From the 08.11.2024 edition of CBS's CBS Sunday Morning:

[advancedgalaxyy]

#1

Hello, I understand there is a lot happening with US politics right now. As a queer person myself with family from another country I am scared too. I want to offer resources to all of you that may be struggling to cope with the result of the election. Listed will be ways to contact the government to express concern, keep people around you safe, support for those who are suicidal, and much more. Hotlines/Suicide Hotlines Call Blackline: 800-604-5841 ~ Centers BI&POC, LGBTQ+ Black Femme Lens Trans Lifeline: 877-565-8860 (US), 877-330-6366 (Canada) ~ Run by and for Trans people. Wildflower Alliance Peer Support Line: 888-407-4515 ~ Trained peer supporters. StrongHearts Native Helpline: 844-762-8483 ~ Centering Native Americans & Alaska Natives Thrive Lifeline: 313-662-8209 ~Trans-led and operated. LGBT National Help Center: 888-843-4564 More resources: InclusiveTherapists.com/crisis Hotlines that May Call the Cops LGBTQ Trevor Project Lifeline: 866-488-7386 (Call), 678-678 Text "START", Trevor Project Website National Suicide Crisis Hotline: 988 (Call), PRIDE (Text) Ways to Save Lives (Yours and Others) If you know anybody who may be Trans you can still respect them in private, in public you will not know they were trans. Do something productive to distract you or somebody else from the current chaos, either by drawing a picture, reading a book, learning to bake, or even playing board games. Never mention possible pregnancy/abortion to anybody, not even through social media apps. Delete any and all period tracking apps and start using a planner or physical calendar. Book appointments for a form of birth control (if possible), or to always carry condoms for yourself and others. Look into sterilization options if that's what you're going for (A list of 1000 doctors who will sterilize you, no fight necessary) Protect anybody around you who may be harmed/affected by new policies. Remind loved one that you are there for them. Remind stressed relatives/friends that not all votes have been counted and there is a large push for a recount, Trump will need 2/3 of senate (60)/ 2/3 of the house of representatives (290)/ 3/4 of the states (38) to push for anything truly major. Places to Donate National Network of Abortion Funds Trans Law Center Other Ways to Improve Life Tiktok will be banned, look for other social media sites. Learn to garden as prices for items will skyrocket, especially in winter. Get an air purifier, The Clean Air Act will most likely be stripped of its power. Supply your children with history/social studies education. (If you have any) Do your best to be aware of your health before January. Contact the US government/Ensure your Vote/ETC Ensure your vote is counted via Vote Curing Visit the ALCU (The ALCU is an organization that specifically fights back against harmful laws and bills - They fought Trump off Rapidly during his first presidency and they're overall good for keeping track of resources and similar things.) 1) https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ 2) Submit directly to the president. 3) Click/Type your reasoning as, "Election Security" 4) State these reasons in a paragraph, "32 fake bomb threats were called into democratic leaning poll places; rendering polls to be closed for at least an hour, this all occurred in swing states (PA, Nevada, Georgia, ETC.), this is all too coincidental that these things happen and swing in his favor after months of hints of foul play, a lot of people reporting their ballots weren't counted for various reasons that are not very sound seeming (Signature Invalidation, Information that voter could not have had), directly state that an investigation for tampering/interference/fraud is required; not just a recount." 5) *Optional* Use a template, "I would like to add my voice in the call for a re-vote/recount of the 2024 presidential election.

[goldenavenger02]

The U.S Election and Anxiety + Tips For Voting

Hello everyone! I've decided that this year, during the election cycle since I live with my conservative family still, instead of getting into useless arguments with them and doomscrolling the whole time, I'm going to practice some mindfulness instead and this is where you come in!

I am writing down every single healthy coping mechanisms/distractions I can, that way I can stay vigilant and informed but I also don't spend four days watching a slow ticking map again, and putting them on folded pieces of paper and into a small bowl. That way anytime I get too stressed or I get into a fight with my family, I can pull one out and at the very least, distract myself for a little bit.

If you know of any healthy coping mechanisms that you use, it doesn't even have to be something you only do every 2 to 4 years, it can just be something you do when that feeling of panic starts to build in your chest, comment below, message me, submit them or reblog with it in the tags.

What I currently have right now is rewatching/rereading comfort media, exercising, cleaning, deep breathing/visualization, hanging out with my pets, crafting and playing mobile/PC games.

I am also willing to make my list public for anyone who needs it if they also suffer from debiliting election anxiety.

At the end of this, I just want all of you to remember a few things. Election anxiety, especially after 2016, is incredibly common and you shouldn't feel ashamed for having it when this political climate has turned into one of hate.

If you are a United States Citizen/registered/old enough to vote, vote. If you are in the line before 6 p.m on November 5th, 2024, they legally cannot turn you away. Bring food and water, there are states where it is illegal for someone to bring you food and water in line. Remember not to wear anything that can be seen as political when you go to vote (not even your Captain America shirt that is in your dresser). And voter intimidation and voter interference is illegal. If someone is standing outside of your polling place, harassing you or others about who they're voting for, let your poll workers know. If you hear someone talking to their buddy about doing something like, I don't know, lighting a ballot box on fire (this has already happened in Washington and Oregon), report it to your non-emergency police line. If it ends up being nothing, you won't be in trouble and if it ends up being something, YOU HELPED PROTECT DEMOCRACY.

Even if you are in a blue state, even if you're in a red state, even if you are in a swing state, even if you hate Kamala Harris and her opponent, even if you don't want to vote down the ballot (which you totally should because it can slowly turn your state blue), even if you are scared of the outcome, vote like your rights as a POC, as a woman, as a member of the LGBT+ community, as someone who isn't a white, straight man will be taken away from you. Because that is the sick reality of the US right now. This election isn't Harris v opponent (remember, names have power), this election is freedom v fascism, no matter what your MAGA relatives say.

And finally, when we fight, we win. Let's beat Kamala Harris' opponent in such a landside that he can't go crying to his lackies AKA the supreme court and beg them to overturn this in his favor with any evidence of "voter fraud" AKA him not getting his way.

And if you're like me, anxious about what will happen to your rights in the upcoming week, we should stay informed. But there is a difference between staying informed and doomscrolling. Yes, there is a LOT at stake in this election, there is no sugarcoating that.

But when you feel yourself start to panic, or your relative starts yelling at you for something they believe your party is doing even though it's not real AND even if it was, you aren't the one doing it, or you feel yourself leaning to unhealthy coping mechanisms, reach into the bowl.

I'll make a list of coping mechanisms to reblog under this and edit it as more come in. The fandom tags under this are so the post gets more reach which is NEEDED and most of these main characters would be voting blue if they were real.

[fluidstatick]

Dear Left-of-Center American,

So you're not in a swing state, you hate the electoral system we've got, and you want to cast a protest vote, or abstain entirely.

Consider this:

If you vote blue, you suck the joy out of the other guy voting red.

Walk with me --

Biden's terrible, you said, repeatedly, last week. He's always been terrible. And I don't disagree with you. He's done a lot of bad things. There's blood on his hands. That's true of every president America has ever had. (Yes, Carter too. Don't get distracted. Stay with me, here.)

Now that Biden's dropped out, you still don't want to vote. Harris has done a lot of shady things. You point to Haiti, California's prisons, her voting record on various and sundry policies that you like or don't like. But I'm looking you in the eyes. I'm holding out my hands. I'm asking you, gently, to step away from the receipts and look at the basic arithmetic of the two party system.

Yknow that person? The one that looks at you funny, like you're either pitiable or disgusting -- Yeah, that one. Maybe you can think of a few. The terven evangelical lady who won't stop sending you anons about gender essentialism and hellfire. The old man you keep running into on the city bus, who loudly scoffs to the guy two seats over "these damn liberals have no shame anymore." The college jock with the massive lifted pickup truck covered in maga stickers. The grey suited board member on c-span who stares dead-eyed at nothing while one of your comrades tries to explain to him why he should care about other people. You know the ones.

Those people vote. They love voting. If they go to church, their clergy encourages them to make godly decisions at the polls. It's a sacred privilege, but it's also fun for them. They love their superhero candidate. They're voting for International Prom King. They're simping over their man so hard it's their entire personality from May to the following January and beyond.

Those people that don't like you started planning for the 2024 election the moment they understood they couldn't scream and curse Joe out of the white house. This is every competitive sport on earth combined for them. They vote because they love the idea of helping their guy score the ultimate super mega touchdown of all time. These people gameify their elections. They're giddy about watching results pour in.

When I was very small, I listened to my lifelong democrat parents criticize Bush Sr. They didn't think I understood what they were talking about, but I knew the man was powerful and was making decisions that made things more difficult for people. I watched Bill Clinton make life easier for my parents, and Americans like them, for eight solid years. (Yes, I learned about bombs and lobbyists and oil subsidies, too. Don't get distracted.) I watched Gore lose the 2000 election, slowly and painfully over the course of weeks. I learned about gerrymandering and voter suppression and swing states and delegates.

And then. When I was in my late teens, too naive to know better, I dated a staunch conservative. The first presidential election I was old enough to participate in was 2004. I was living with the aforementioned conservative. When our voter's pamphlets arrived in the mail in mid October he handed mine to me and said, grimly, "You're gonna vote for Kerry, aren't you?"

I said "of course I am."

He tossed his voter's pamphlet in the trash and said "See, you liberals annoy me. What's the point of me doing my civic duty as an American id you're just going to cancel it out by voting for a socialist?"

(Kerry was not a socialist.)

Bush won a second term in 2004. It wasn't nearly as close as Bush/Gore, because Americans were still deeply paranoid about terrorism, preoccupied with Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. Kerry ran on economics. Bush ran on Islamophobia. But I pissed off my conservative boyfriend, his parents, and half of his friends. We broke up not long after that.

And my point is: If you can't convince yourself to show up at the polls in support of the Democratic nominee, and you can't imagine your deeply red state flupping blue, or your historically blue state drifting purple: Imagine looking your most obnoxious bigoted neighbor in the eye and telling them "I voted for the one you don't like. If you think about it, it's like you didn't vote at all."

Is that how voting works? Of course not. Will it piss em off? Yeah, probably.

Vote to spite an asshole with a punchable face, if you want. Just fuckin' vote.

[dreaminginthedeepsouth]

The Globe and Mail : Michael de Adder

* * * *

The Grassroots Resistance, 2.0

November 11, 2024

Robert B. Hubbell

After Election Night 2016, a national grassroots movement arose spontaneously. It spread organically across the nation. The only plan was to resist. The movement began in living rooms, church basements, and online. It soon swelled to tens of thousands. And then hundreds of thousands. And then millions. It did not wait for permission or ask for instructions. It overrode and ignored existing power structures. The grassroots resistance had a bias toward action. It offered community to the anxious and bold alike. In the end, the grassroots movement saved democracy. Literally. Not figuratively. Not metaphorically. Literally.

After Election Night 2024, we must renew the grassroots movement. At a moment that demands unity and action, Democratic Party leaders are inexplicably pointing fingers as they attempt to salvage their legacies and cover their footprints. The media is filled with opinion pieces that ignore the looming threat of tyranny and gleefully fan the flames of vanity and ego designed to deflect blame and create distraction.

Enough.

The way forward is through unity. Blame is the currency of people who worry about their Wikipedia entries and obsess over their follower counts and favorability ratings. We have real work to do. Some day in the future, exit polling and crosstabs in spreadsheets will help us win elections. Today, we have a nation to save.

We need a second grassroots resistance movement. The Grassroots Resistance, 2.0. The good news is that we have existing infrastructure. We have willing servants of democracy who are battle-tested and savvy, though weary. And we have smart, inspiring leaders willing to continue their leadership even as they hope for reinforcements and new voices.

The Grassroots Resistance 2.0 is not a replacement of the existing grassroots movement. It is a renewal of the fighting spirit within the existing movement, tempered and honed by the cold reality of a man who sought the presidency only to avoid prison and exact vengeance.

Resisting over the next four years will be difficult. The only thing that would be more difficult is not resisting.

As we recover from the insensible decision to re-elect a failed insurrectionist and aspiring dictator, we must return to the grassroots communities that sustained us over the past eight years. The urge to shelter in the isolation of sorrow and grief is understandable. As soon as you can, find your way back to the community that is waiting for you with open arms and renewed determination.

Leaders of the renewed grassroots movement must recognize that their returning troops are weary and disillusioned, even as they summon the courage to report for a third tour of duty. Create spaces for rest, reflection, and renewal. Recognize the need of people to talk about how they feel.

We will make it through this difficult period together. We must resist, delay, and defeat unlawful actions whenever we can and then move on quickly to the next battle. We cannot tarry over losses or demand time to regroup.

Many who read this will understandably say they are not ready to rejoin the fight. That is appropriate and reasonable. But we need you back. Take time to rest and recover. And then find your way back to the resistance movement that saved democracy after 2016. Literally. Not figuratively. Not metaphorically. We can do so, again. Literally.

Coda

To avoid dozens of unnecessary email corrections, I acknowledge that others are counseling against using the word “resistance” to describe our efforts over the next four years. My use of “resistance” is intentional. “Opposition”—the term suggested by others—implies that our actions are taking place within a functioning political system that observes the rule of law and gives voice and agency to the minority party—the “loyal opposition.”

Sadly, that is not where we are. The Supreme Court has authorized the president to operate in an extra-constitutional manner that is beyond the reach of the law. He will gladly accept their invitation to act unilaterally, even when the law does not give him that authority. His unlawful actions will be reviewed by rubber-stamp judges jockeying to replace two aging justices on the Supreme Court. There may be no opportunity for political opposition, which is the norm in a functioning democracy. At that point, our only option is lawful resistance.

Whether you see yourself as working in opposition or resistance, we are in the fight together. We are not going to win by correcting one another’s vocabulary. Let’s get to work—and let historians decide how to label our victories!

Two stories that will dominate the next few weeks

Many commentators are beginning to detail how the next Trump administration will seek to change our lives. Those articles are thoughtful, accurate, and detailed. I will let you find them on your own if you are looking for a menu of potential items we must face over the next three to six months.

For now, I will highlight two items that are likely to shape the news cycle in significant ways. I am trying to ease back into the news for those who are still in shock from an election night that is not yet a week in the past.

The transition process may be difficult and chaotic

The transition between presidential administrations is governed by the Presidential Transition Act. The Act imposes dozens of disclosure and ethics requirements on presidential candidates and presidents-elect as a condition of receiving briefings, security clearances, and funding. See Presidential Transition Act Summary • Center for Presidential Transition.

One requirement relates to ethics pledges to be signed by the incoming president and vice-president. Per the above article,

Not later than October 1, the Executive Office of the President, acting through the Federal Transition Coordinator, negotiates memorandums of understanding with transition teams regarding conditions of access to agencies, including agreement by transition teams to implement and make public their ethics plans.

To no one’s surprise, Trump has refused to sign the required ethics pledge. See Salon, "Consequences are severe": Trump's lack of ethics pledge delays transition process. Per the Salon article,

The lack of Trump's adherence to the requirements under the Presidential Transition Act has left him locked out of meetings and briefings with the current administration and heads of government agencies.

Trump didn’t detangle himself from his financial holdings in his first term in office, triggering years of emoluments violation investigations into the over 3,000 alleged conflicts of interest he accrued. Foreign dignitaries often paid top dollar to stay at the Trump International Hotel in D.C., as did Secret Service details protecting the then-president’s family.

So, Trump's incoming administration places us smack dab in the middle of where we left off—Trump ignoring the Emoluments Clause while he uses the Office of the Presidency as a profit-making opportunity.

It is not clear how the Biden Administration will proceed in the absence of Trump's compliance with the ethics disclosures required by the Presidential Transition Act. But it is clear already how Trump's cronies will act—they will simply disregard the provisions of the Act and begin to conduct themselves as though they have the mantel of authority—when they do not.

Case in point: Bryan Lanza, a Trump campaign staffer, announced on ABC News that Ukraine must give up hopes of defeating Russia’s war of aggression. Lanza said,

We’ve got news for President Zelenskyy: Crimea is gone.

Lanza’s comment effectively tells Ukraine that it must surrender a significant portion of its sovereign territory as a condition for peace. That is a breathtaking pronouncement for someone who—at the moment—is a contractor for the Trump campaign. Lanza may have hopes of obtaining a position in the next Trump administration, but he is currently a stranger to the US government and its foreign policy—because there is no transition process in place.

The Trump campaign later claimed that Lanza had no authority to speak for Trump.

Here’s my point: Trump's failure to engage in an orderly transition process is already creating chaos. More is likely.

The Biden Administration’s options are “bad” and “worse.” Should Biden demand adherence to the congressionally mandated transition process and risk chaos, or should he relent and allow Trump and his cronies to slither into office while evading ethics pledges required of every other incoming administration?

[Robert B. Hubbell Newsletter]

[self-loving-vampire]

"On the first day of the Republican National Convention, prominent Republicans used their national platform to target transgender people. This signals that the party is not abandoning its efforts to curtail transgender and LGBTQ+ rights if they gain power in the next election. This comes after the vice presidential running mate pick of JD Vance, the lead author of a Senate bill that would institute a national ban on transgender youth care and bar all medical schools from teaching about transgender care, including adult trans care. ... The willingness to lean into anti-LGBTQ+ policies on the first day of the Republican National Convention may seem puzzling. Attacks on LGBTQ+ people have faltered in 2024 compared with 2023, with far fewer laws passing. Several states that had targeted trans people in previous years, such as Florida, Georgia, West Virginia, and Kansas, failed to pass anti-LGBTQ+ policies this year, despite over 80 bills proposed in those states targeting the community. In many elections where anti-trans policies were a major issue, the Republican Party suffered setbacks: 70% of Moms for Liberty and Project 1776 candidates lost their races in 2023. Other losses Republicans have suffered on this issue occurred in the Virginia legislature elections, the Arizona Governor’s race, the Michigan legislature elections, the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, the Walker-Warnock Senate race, and in dozens more places. Furthermore, recent polling from Gallup, Navigator, and the LA Times indicates fading public support for such laws, with huge majorities of respondents seeing them as a distraction and opposing bans on trans youth care. Still, Trump’s selection of Senator JD Vance as his running mate indicates that he and the Republican Party have not backed off from this issue."

[darkmaga-returns]

11/05/2024•Mises Wire•Tho Bishop

Today, in theory, will conclude the 2024 presidential election, one of the most bizarre in American political history. From inner-party coups to assassination attempts, Kamala’s Brat summer social media trend to Trump’s courting of comedian podcasts, the campaign cycle has been saturated with the unconventional. It has, of course, also seen its expected share of shallow, political, rhetorical rhetoric and general economic illiteracy, which are the cornerstones of modern democracy.

The general superficial nature of mainstream political discourse, though, should not distract us from recognizing foundational truths about the state of modern American politics. No matter the outcome, the legitimacy of American democracy is broken.

In 2020, this was in full display, as was the response from Donald Trump and his supporters. Fueled by the unprecedented changes to the election under the shadow of covid, President Trump refused to concede the election. Polls showed the majority of his supporters agreed with him, and from that seed of distrust grew renewed concerns over illegal voters, manipulable voting machines, and rising awareness over the security of vote-by-mail ballots. To this day, large portions of the country continue to believe the Biden administration was illegitimate.

How would Democrats have reacted in the face of a similarly close race resulting in a Trump victory last election? While the counterfactual is impossible to consider in practice, hints were already publicly available before election day 2020. In Biden campaign war games, John Podesta, a long-time Democrat operative, outlined a strategy quite similar to the one Trump embarked on. As reported at the time, this included Democrat-swing state governors being pressured into promoting friendly alternative electors to vote in the electoral college under the guise of reversing Republican “voter suppression” efforts. Unlike the Republican response in 2020, this appeal would have been strengthened by blue-state secession threats should Trump have been inaugurated.

Would Joe Biden have followed through with this strategy if this alternative timeline had played out? We will never know. Nor can we know the potential effectiveness of this strategy, though it is likely such efforts would have been treated quite differently than Trump’s response.

Still, as we look forward, what is clear here is that the willingness for either side to accept, without question, the basic machinery of American politics has broken down significantly. The centralization of power within Washington, which consistently elevates the stakes of national politics, coupled with significant ideological shifts (particularly on the left), and the perceived danger Trump represents to American political institutions, regardless of his demonstrated ability to follow through after 2016, has created a dynamic where the incentives to concede power for the alleged “national good” have all but broken down.

Each side is motivated by a spirit of self-preservation, not politics.

[mariacallous]

2023 was, by many measures, a disappointing year for Ukraine. Russia’s war rages on, and the highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian forces did not produce the kind of territorial gains that leaders in Kyiv and the West had hoped. Diplomatic agreements such as the Black Sea Grain Initiative have fallen apart. And the West’s support has shown signs of stress as the war has grinded on for nearly two years without major progress toward decisive victory.

However, the war is still far from a lost cause for Ukraine and its Western backers. It was always unrealistic to expect a conclusive outcome for the conflict last year. As I argued in Foreign Policy at the end of 2022, the “survival of Putinism, and the resistance of the Ukrainian people and state, means 2023 may see neither exhaustion nor victory.”

What, then, is the outlook for the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2024? Like last year, the trajectory of the war will depend on three primary factors spanning the security, political, and economic spheres, each with its own key indicators shaping the war’s outlook.

In the security realm, the pivotal factor will no longer be territorial control on the battlefield itself. Two years in, the conflict has turned into a war of attrition with hardened front lines, so the likelihood of major territorial exchange is much lower than in the first year of the full-scale invasion. This is not to say that territory will not be lost or gained in 2024, but Russia’s fortifications and mining along the front lines will make a major Ukrainian breakthrough difficult.

At the same time, any major Russian offensive—with President Vladimir Putin maintaining the goal of controlling all of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine—is likely to galvanize greater Western military support for the Ukrainians. As such, operations beyond the front lines, from Russian missile attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure to Kyiv’s drone attacks and sabotage in Crimea and Russia proper, will serve as influential elements that will test each side’s ability to endure such a conflict for another year.

Politics is likely to exert significant influence on the war. Upcoming presidential elections in Russia in March are all but a foregone conclusion to produce a victory for incumbent Putin, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has received support from parliament and the public for the extension of martial law and the postponement of Ukraine’s own presidential elections, which had previously been scheduled for this year.

That being said, neither leader will be immune to domestic political pressures, whether among the hard-line security factions within Russia—displayed most dramatically by the attempted insurrection by late Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin—or anti-corruption activists within Ukraine.

And while major political change at the top is unlikely in either Russia or Ukraine, this is far from certain for the United States, which will have its own presidential polls in November. As President Joe Biden contends for reelection, U.S. support for Ukraine will have to compete with numerous other issues on the agenda, from the Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza to the standoff with China to domestic issues such as abortion and immigration. U.S. distraction and possible overstretch could therefore create opportunities that Russia will likely seek to exploit, including via election interference and disinformation campaigns to exacerbate political polarization.

At the same time, the evolution of the war in Ukraine will be an important factor by which Biden’s foreign policy will be judged, so the Biden administration will seek to show tangible progress in the war this year.

Economics could prove to be the most pivotal in shaping the war in the coming year. U.S. and European Union financial assistance will be critical for sustaining Ukraine’s war effort, so if that were to drop significantly, then it would certainly undermine Kyiv’s overall strategic position. Resistance among members of the Republican Party in the U.S. Congress to passing funding for Ukraine and Hungary’s blocking of the EU’s 50 billion euro ($54.6 billion) aid package for Kyiv in the final weeks of 2023 have both exposed the country’s vulnerability. While both obstacles have workarounds in the short term, this will be a key issue that Ukraine will have to contend with throughout the coming year.

For Russia’s part, it has so far been able to maintain economic resilience and maneuver Western economic pressure by increasing economic and especially energy ties with countries such as China, India, Turkey, and the Persian Gulf states. According to official Russian statistics, GDP grew by nearly 3 percent in the first 10 months of 2023, and it is projected to grow by a similar measure in 2024. Nevertheless, Russia has faced economic pressures such as currency volatility and shortages of skilled workers, and there are additional financial measures that can be taken against Moscow in the coming year, such as a G-7 plan to seize Russian central bank assets and use those to help fund Ukraine’s war effort.

Russia has banked on its ability to replace its economic ties with the West with that of the global south, which is reflected not only in the reshaping of its energy flows but also in its pursuit of building up non-Western diplomatic platforms such as the BRICS bloc (which also includes Brazil, India, China, South Africa, and six newly added member states) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

While such groups are unlikely to rival more established blocs such as NATO and the EU anytime soon, their growing membership does indicate that efforts by Moscow—as well as Beijing—to challenge the Western order could have increasing appeal. And while Russia has few direct supporters of its war efforts in Ukraine outside of rogue regimes in Iran and North Korea, Moscow’s primary goal will be to make sure that the West’s economic isolation and pressure campaign is not matched by the global south.

Ukraine’s position is more precarious. While Kyiv has had its own active diplomatic outreach strategy with the global south, it will remain highly dependent on the West and the United States in particular in order to keep its economy afloat and its defenses intact. Securing an agreement to start membership talks with the European Union was a significant achievement for Ukraine, but the accession process is likely to take years, while Kyiv’s need to maintain funding from the United States and EU is more immediate.

Economic statecraft and associated diplomacy could well be the most influential elements in shaping the conflict in the coming year. Both Russia and Ukraine will certainly continue to pursue their military aims in the war, but as with the past year, there is unlikely to be a decisive winner on the battlefield.

For 2024, the advantage will ultimately come to whichever side is more adept at economic and diplomatic maneuvering—and the concrete agreements that nation has to show for it.

[thewickedwilds]

I have not doubt in my mind that the 2024 elections are going to be grossly focused on the LGBT community. The Right is going to do what they typically do to get votes: create a strawman to vilify and cause false outrage in order to distract people from their incompetence and greed. Fear has always been the republican party’s bread and butter for easy votes.

They are already stirring the pot in preparation for this strategy. It’s nearly all the news covers. People are going to try telling you that your vote doesn’t matter- but the 2020 election was won because 55% of young people made it to the polls. The stakes are so extremely high for LGBT, POC, and women’s rights and we’re going to be in for a fight.

this legislative session, 12 anti-trans bills were introduced in virginia. 3 were intended to ban trans healthcare, 4 were forced-outing bills, and 5 would have banned trans people from sports. these are the same kinds of bills we've been watching pop up country-wide. but as of this morning (2/16/23) all 12 were defeated. it's obviously the bare minimum to ask for from a government, but it should still be celebrated. so many of us in virginia have been holding our breaths for weeks, and the relief we felt today was notable.

things feel grim right now, but there are still people out here fighting tooth and nail to keep our family safe, and we are loved, so there's your good news for the day

[qqueenofhades]

AAAAHHHHHHHH It's TIM! 1000% strong MN girl here and boy it's been real fun to watch Tim (and Peggy! Our amazing lieutenant governor) take a small small Democratic majority and do incredible things. My kid ate two meals at school every day for free. DELIGHTED that he's the VP pick. LET'S GOOOOOOOO!!!!

Listen, I am just ECSTATIC. Ever since I seriously became tuned into the veepstakes, he was my number one pick (I mean, I was not immune to the brief flirtation everyone had with Beshear/Buttigieg/etc), but yes. Walz was my top pick and I was trying desperately not to get my heart too set on him in case it fell through, but he was the obvious best choice of the contenders by a country mile. He has an almost absurdly Midwestern pro-America background (military veteran, public school teacher, football coach from a small rural town, etc) AND he has managed to enact a long list of progressive policies in Minnesota with a very narrow majority in the state legislature. Also, you're going to be seeing a lot of this video, for good reason:

Also.... let's be real, Shapiro would have been an incredible distraction/drag on the ticket, unfortunately. We don't need to deal with his retrograde views on Gaza and his other baggage, and while he is a very popular governor in Pennsylvania, it's less certain that his appeal would translate to other states. We can argue (or you know, let's not and move on) about whether or not that was fair, but this is just not the year to try to win the most critical high-stakes election ever by pissing off young voters. Shapiro has done plenty of good things and has time to develop his career further, but he would have been a BAD pick for 2024 and I was alarmed at how many Respected Pundits (tm) were pulling for him. Reuters even claimed that picking him would "defang Republican attempts to make Israel-Gaza a wedge issue for Democrats," which is such a mind-bogglingly stupid statement that it makes you wonder how anyone writing it actually got paid for their political insight, but it also explains a lot about mainstream media these days. Picking Shapiro would have been an absolute gift to the Republicans and bad-faith actors and others (plus like, I don't want to have to spend time winning back the young voters who are actually once more engaged in the process!) and would have led to the media eagerly jumping into the feeding frenzy (because they're desperate to have a reason not to cover Trump's increasingly crazy-ass shit) and other Democratic-on-Democratic infighting. And it goes without saying that WE CANNOT AFFORD THAT.

As well, picking Shapiro just because you need to win PA this election cycle is yet another example of why the Electoral College sucks, and the polling averages in PA have been moving solidly blue anyway. You can just park Shapiro there and have him campaign in the state as the sitting popular governor, rather than expose him to the liability of a nationwide campaign where, as noted, all the other stuff would be a drag. If it's true that the establishment was pushing Harris to pick Shapiro and she picked Walz instead, a) GOOD! and b) if anything, this election cycle needs to fucking teach us that we have got to stop going with the Conventional Wisdom Tee Em. Walz was already out there, he was already popular with the public/energizing the grassroots, AND he was the guy who coined the "Weird" attack line that is actually effective and organically popular against the Republicans and drives them batshit. So for Kamala to lean into that and take him as her running mate is... zomgz... smart, and I am not used to the Democrats playing smart and aggressive and not just passive-defensive. I don't understand. Wow.

Anyway, now watch the New York Times (and the others, lbr, but especially the NYT) desperately try to dig up scandalous stories about that time Walz didn't stop at the 4H booth at the county fair, or walked past someone without saying "Ope just gonna sneak by ya first" or some other terrible Midwestern sin, but fuck those guys. I am EXCITED I am ENERGIZED I am THRILLED. This is a GREAT new ticket that came together at incredibly short notice and completely changed the dynamics everywhere, Walz is gonna make JD Vance cry (unsure whether I want to see Harris demolish Trumpster or Midwestern Dad to turn the cranks on Weird Couchfucking Fascist Skidmark more, but both, both, both is good). LET'S GO GET THOSE WEIRD MOTHERFUCKERS, Y'ALL!!

HARRIS/WALZ 2024!

[critical-skeptic]

2024 Election Turnout Prediction

I don't want to be overly optimistic or start celebrating just yet, but based on the few credible polls, Lichtman's Keys to the White House predictions, my own observations and analysis based on actual numbers and trends, the underlying sociopolitical and sociocultural climate, and many other key factors—such as demographic shifts with fewer Boomers and more Gen Z voters, virtual mobilization through social media, and the clear and present dangers of Trump dominating the news cycle 24/7, obstructing, distracting, and preemptively undermining credibility in the electoral systems throughout the Biden administration—this is how I see it:

Trump is hemorrhaging support among women under 30, with a brutal 40-point deficit that doesn’t show signs of reversing. His supposed edge with young men is a meager 5 points—barely enough to make a dent and far from a guarantee of turnout from those men who are still undecided or unmotivated. Independents have already shown a noticeable tilt in early voting, which is historically high at over 77 million voters, indicating a public enthusiasm not seen in prior elections. What’s clear is that many independents are not just sitting on the sidelines; they’re mobilizing in what looks like a concerted effort against Trump’s campaign. This early turnout reflects the energy and frustration driving voters, especially younger demographics, and it’s setting up a stark divide as we move into Election Day.

I predict tomorrow will bring more than record-breaking turnout for Kamala Harris; it may well deliver one of the most resounding upsets in modern political history. Harris isn’t merely pulling numbers in battleground states; her appeal is resonating deep into traditionally red territories, zones Trump and his allies have long taken for granted. This shift signals more than a partisan swing; it speaks to a broader transformation that has been brewing, fueled by disillusionment with current leadership. If these early voting patterns carry through into Election Day, we could witness red states not just being competitive but flipping outright—a reflection of how deeply many Americans are craving a change in direction, even among voters once seen as Trump’s loyal base.

This momentum goes beyond the predictable demographics. Independent voters, many of whom lean conservative or are tired of Republican extremism, are casting ballots in a way that suggests they're not simply undecided or indifferent; they’re making a conscious choice, one that could shatter the traditional political map. Sociologically, this shift makes sense—it’s the natural fallout of years of polarizing governance and increasing alienation within conservative circles. Tomorrow could showcase a reality that transcends typical party affiliation, underscoring a shift among independents and so-called unaffiliated conservatives who are ready to support Harris. If this trend holds, it won’t just be a win for the Democrats; it’ll mark a major reckoning for the GOP's ideological grip on its own base.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Erin Reed at Erin In The Morning:

The New York Times has recently come under fire for platforming writers who push disinformation on transgender care. In the last several months, articles from anti-trans authors such as Pamela Paul and others have repeatedly been cited to justify harsh crackdowns on trans care in Republican-controlled states. Now, in the wake of President Joe Biden withdrawing from the 2024 election and endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris, the largest newspaper in the United States has published advice for her that many may find completely unsurprising: target transgender kids to appear more moderate. In an article published in the New York Times newsletter, The Morning, a long-time senior writer David Leonhardt listed five issues that Kamala Harris could target to appear more moderate to voters and win votes. One of the issues was transgender rights, suggesting that the Democratic Party should compromise on transgender issues to gain support in the next election.

[...]

Notably, Leonhardt makes a weak case in his advice for Vice President Harris that many will view as unsurprising. The link chosen to support his claim that Democrats are "well to the public’s left" on transgender issues merely directs readers to another New York Times article by Pamela Paul, which has already been fact-checked and found to contain false and misleading information. The Pamela Paul story falls far short of supporting the idea that the public is significantly opposed to transgender issues.

While some polls show opposition to aspects like sports participation, more recent surveys indicate that the public is against bans on gender-affirming care and does not view transgender issues as particularly salient or worth legislating over. Gallup, Navigator, and the LA Times have all released polls within the last three months showing that the American public views trans issues as a major distraction, opposes forced outing policies, and rejects bans on gender-affirming care for transgender youth. In Gallup’s case, multiple ways of asking about gender-affirming care bans did not affect the result.

[...] Ultimately, if Vice President Harris aims to win the 2024 election, she might instead consider the recession of anti-trans and anti-LGBTQ panic within public opinion and the documented failures of anti-LGBTQ+ platforms in the political arena. By standing firm on protecting transgender care and rejecting far-right pressures, Harris could present herself as a candidate of integrity and empathy, rather than someone who attacks whatever marginalized group the New York Times has designed as politically expedient to do so.

NY Times writer David Leonhardt has terrible advice on transgender health issues for Kamala Harris: become more like the Labour Party on trans issues.

Harris (and the Democratic Party) should reject that advice and stand up for trans people unapologetically.