#economic forecast

[carlocarrasco]

DBCC adjusts Philippines GDP growth targets for 2024 to 2028

Recently the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) adjusted its economic growth targets for the Philippines covering the next few years in relation to varied factors, according to a BusinessWorld news report. To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the BusinessWorld news report. Some parts in boldface… THE Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on…

[instaviewpoint]

Debt Discrimination

April 26 2024 By PK Morgan Most of the middle and lower classes have worked all of their lives to support their families. It’s not always easy and speed bumps called financial crisis are scattered everywhere. Our solution was rarely found in asking our country to pay our way out of debt that we freely took on to feed our children or buy that shiny new car.  We worked to pay it off. But…

[kesarijournal]

India's Astrological Forecast: Navigating the Mars Mahadasha (2025-2032)

As India approaches the Mars Mahadasha from September 6, 2025, to September 6, 2032, an intriguing astrological phase unfolds, promising a period marked by transformation and challenges. This forecast delves into the implications of Mars’ transit through various houses in India’s Vedic Astrology charts – the Ascendant, Navamsha, and Dashamsha – specifically focusing on public sectors, economic…

[jsbmarketresearch01]

Oil Prices Slide as the Global Economy Slows Down in 2023 Says IMF

On Tuesday, the oil prices fell from their highest levels on a stronger dollar in a month after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) signaled a warning that 2023 will be tougher as the major economies are now weakening. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down by 1.0% or 77 cents with the price marking $79.49 a barrel. The Brent crude future on the other hand dipped by 1.1% or 98 cents with a price marking $84.93 a barrel by 0148 GMT. The reason for the price slide is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

Not only oil but dollar-denominated commodities got more expensive for other countries holding different currencies. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that 2023 will be tougher than 2022 in terms of global economic growth because the financial acceleration is slowing down for the United States, Europe, and China. However, oil prices increased by 2% and more on Friday as WTI and Brent closed the year 2022 up 6.7% and 10.5%, respectively.

On 3 January 2023, the Societe Generale analysts said that in the week ending on 27 December 2022, commodities saw a bullish flow at $12.3 billion, the single largest weekly bullish flow for that particular year. The analysts also said that it is Brent where the commodity has the largest flow, and saw a bullish flow of $3.4 billion as Russia outlined to the EU its response and G7 put on a price cap on their nation’s crude exports that happen for the third parties.

[more-flotsam-and-jetsam]

[phoenixyfriend]

The Myth of the Rational Actor

Ko-fi prompt from @vincentursus:

the myth of the rational actor please?

The myth as such: people will act in a perfectly rational manner, and the economy will respond in reaction to that.

So... the idea here is that emotions will never influence someone's actions in making economic choices.

Which is, as we can guess, bullshit.

To quote Medium,

Mainstream (neo-classical) economics idealizes human beings as perfectly rational actors when it comes to making decisions. This concept, known as rational choice theory, is based on three assumptions: 1. People have complete and consistent preferences (which can be assigned quantitative values called utilities) among a set of decision outcomes 2. People act independently based on full and relevant information 3. People always select the decision option that maximizes their utility.

So. That's absurd. Let's start from the bottom, utility.

One of the first things you learn in any marketing class is that half the industry is run on an appeal to emotion.

(The other half of it actually is an appeal to logic, like 'you can use this tool to compare your insurance costs,' which is the aforementioned rational action.)

The most obvious example of that utility element being wrong is: Food.

For a completely rational actor, the food purchased would be the most nutrition for the least cost. Taste is irrelevant. Ambience is irrelevant. Occasion is irrelevant. You fill out the food pyramid for whatever you can pay the least amount of cash. Buy a fifty pound bag of rice, wholesale canned tuna, and frozen veggie mixes that you only need five minutes to heat up and consume.

Chocolate? No. Salt or sugar? Only enough to fulfill your need for water absorption. Spices? Waste of money!

This sounds extreme, because a complete lack of emotional impact on your purchasing habits is extreme. You seek things that make you happy or pleased. You search for sweet tastes that cheer you up, for fatty tastes that satisfy you, for spicy flavors that you can eat in a competition with your friends to prove who's the manliest.

That's not rational! But we do it! Food is an inherently irrational thing to purchase, unless you are so strapped for cash that you cannot afford to be anything other than fully dedicated to the highest calorie:dollar ratio that you can find.

The other thing that the utility factor disregards is charity. On the standard 'rational' definition used in economics, charity is completely irrational for anyone who doesn't get a tax cut from it.

But people engage in charitable actions and donations anyway.

Full and relevant information: Uhhhhh no

I think we can all agree that full and relevant information is not actually a reality for most people.

Manufacturers bend the truth. Marketers omit things. Word of mouth is unreliable. Influencers lie. Online reviews are fake.

Some don't! But you don't know who is or isn't lying unless there is a law that controls what information they can put out. Researching takes time, and figuring out which lies are actually lies is difficult.

There are a lot of videos all over YouTube talking about scams, both the obvious, and the more subtle. There's a reason that misinformation is such a huge industry these days, and hey! A lot of misinformation relies on those aforementioned appeals to emotion that are both a marketing device and a rhetorical one.

Complete and consistent preferences: Sometimes?

I mean, some people have complete and consistent preferences. I have a favorite Starbucks drink that I get most times (technically I have four and it depends on the weather). I have stylistic preferences for my clothing. I have musical preferences.

But it still takes me time to make decisions when at a restaurant, you know? My little sister likes a lot of foods, sure, but if you ask her to pick a place to eat it can take literal hours. Hell, there are entire phenomenons named after the fact that people don't have preferences and have trouble making decisions!

And on top of all that, you have people whose 'preference' is spontaneity. They pick whatever they haven't tried before, because it's new, and exciting, and that's cool!

Which really harshes the mellow on that whole "clear and consistent preferences" thing.

Where does that leave us?

Well, the rational actor is clearly a majorly inaccurate standard to hold individual consumers and the market to. That said, I don't think more than a handful of very extreme people would ever claim that the rational actor is an absolutely perfect predictor for the market.

Rather, it's used as a starting point. If the market reacts to forces in a completely rational manner, here is what we would be expecting. Then, upon projecting the actions of the market under the most rational and perfect conditions, we can apply other possible factors. The possible success of a marketing campaign. The risks of weather or politics impacting supply lines. An unexpected trend rising up from a comedic social media moment among teens and young people.

Imagine you have a catapult. Imagine you know what the catapult will do under perfect conditions, with consistent rope length and artillery weight and weather conditions. The numbers you run your basic physics class formulas with are the rational actor.

The market trends that cause that rational prediction to have error margins is the equivalent of "the wind's been varying between 3mph and 9mph, and from NW to SWW."

I'm not sure how safely I can get away with embedding images that I don't personally have the rights to when they're actually relevant to the education portion of this, and not just a silly joke like the TGP inclusion up there, so I'll just tell you to go look at the first graph at this link, and you'll see what I mean about the 'best, most predictable case' line vs the 'actual possibilities' forecast.

Hope that helps!

(If you wanted me to go more into the history of this concept than its actual uses, uh... whoops?)

[futurefatum]

TODAY 10/17 Karma will prevail. Are you ready? (Tone: 310)

Posted October 17th, 2024 by @JoniPatryVedicAstrologer Video Summary: In this video, Joanie Patri delves into the astrological significance of the October 17th full moon, which coincides with intense planetary alignments. She highlights how this full moon in Aries, under the influence of Vedic sidereal astrology, reveals hidden truths and intensifies global events, particularly around politics…

[swatisurbhiastro]

How Financial Astrology Can Predict Market Trends and Investment Opportunities

In an ever-evolving financial landscape, investors are constantly seeking innovative ways to gain an edge in the market. One such method that has garnered attention is financial astrology, an intriguing blend of ancient astrological principles and modern financial analysis. By examining the influence of planetary movements on market trends, financial astrology aims to predict economic cycles and uncover investment opportunities. 

Understanding Financial Astrology

Financial astrology, or astro-finance, is based on the belief that celestial bodies such as planets and stars can impact human behavior and world events, including financial markets. Astrologers analyze the positions and movements of these celestial bodies to forecast market trends and economic shifts. This practice involves interpreting astrological charts, planetary alignments, retrogrades, and other celestial phenomena.

Key Astrological Concepts in Finance

Planetary Alignments: Specific alignments of planets are believed to correlate with significant market events. For example, conjunctions (when two planets appear close together in the sky) and oppositions (when planets are directly opposite each other) are considered powerful indicators of market trends.

Retrogrades: A planet is said to be in retrograde when it appears to move backward in its orbit from the perspective of Earth. Mercury retrograde, for instance, is often associated with communication breakdowns and market volatility. 

Transits: The movement of planets through different signs of the zodiac is called a transit. Certain transits are thought to bring about changes in market sentiment. For example, when Jupiter, the planet of expansion and prosperity, 

Practical Applications for Investors

Financial astrologers use these astrological insights to advise clients on optimal times for making significant financial decisions. Here are some ways in which financial astrology can be applied:

Timing Investments: By analyzing astrological charts, investors can identify favorable periods for buying or selling stocks, entering new markets, or launching business ventures.

Market Sentiment Analysis: Understanding the potential impact of astrological events on investor sentiment can help investors anticipate market trends.

Risk Management: Financial astrology can also aid in risk management by identifying periods of potential market instability

Case Studies and Historical Correlations

While financial astrology is not a mainstream method, there are several notable case studies that suggest correlations between astrological events and market behavior. For instance, the stock market crash of 1987 occurred during a challenging planetary alignment involving Saturn and Uranus. Similarly, periods of economic boom have often coincided with favorable Jupiter transits.

Integrating Financial Astrology with Traditional Analysis

It is important to note that financial astrology should not replace traditional financial analysis but rather complement it. By integrating astrological insights with conventional market indicators, investors can gain a more holistic view of market dynamics.

Conclusion

Financial astrology offers a fascinating and unconventional approach to predicting market trends and identifying investment opportunities. By understanding the influence of planetary movements on financial markets, investors can gain valuable insights and improve their investment strategies. To delve deeper into the world of financial astrology and discover how it can benefit your investments, visit swatisurbhiastro.com for expert guidance and personalized astrological analysis.

[sonic-wildfire]

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[carlocarrasco]

Economy of the Philippines to keep growing above 6% in 2024 and 2025

Recently, an economist predicted that the economy of the Philippines will keep growing above 6% this year and next year, according to a Philippine News Agency (PNA) news article. To put things in perspective, posted below is an excerpt from the PNA news article. Some parts in boldface… The Philippine economy is expected to remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region, with growth…

[dkaufmandevelopment]

2025 Multifamily Market Forecast: Opportunities and Challenges Ahead

As we step into 2025, the multifamily market is at a pivotal moment, shaped by a combination of stabilizing rents, shifting occupancy rates, and macroeconomic factors. Drawing from insights in the November 2024 Yardi Matrix Multifamily National Report, here’s a comprehensive forecast to guide developers and investors through the year ahead.

Rent Growth: Modest Gains Expected in 2025

In 2024, the national average rent stabilized at $1,920, reflecting a cooling period after years of aggressive growth. For 2025:

• National Outlook: Expect rent growth to remain modest, averaging 2-3%. This reflects a normalized market where supply has caught up with demand in many regions.

• Regional Variances:

• Sunbelt Markets: Cities like Austin, Phoenix, and Las Vegas may continue to see minimal growth—or slight declines—due to persistent oversupply.

• Gateway Cities: Markets like New York, San Francisco, and Boston should experience renewed growth driven by strong job markets and international migration.

Developer Insight: Focus on markets with steady job growth and demand for mid-tier rentals. Avoid oversupplied markets unless targeting long-term value-add opportunities.

Occupancy Rates to Remain Competitive

With national occupancy at 94.2% in late 2024, we expect continued softness in 2025 as 930,000 units under construction are delivered. Occupancy could dip further in some oversupplied markets, while stabilized markets should hold firm.

• Demand Factors: Rising interest rates and high homeownership costs will keep renters in the market, particularly in urban areas.

• New Supply Impact: Markets like Dallas, Nashville, and Atlanta will feel pressure as developers race to fill newly completed units.

Investor Opportunity: Look for properties with below-market rents in competitive areas. Strategic upgrades and targeted leasing efforts can improve NOI despite headwinds.

Supply Pipeline: Adjusting to Economic Realities

While construction activity slowed in late 2024, 2025 will see the delivery of projects launched during the pandemic boom. Developers are expected to remain cautious as:

• Rising material costs and labor shortages persist.

• Financing challenges from elevated interest rates continue to squeeze margins.

Expect a decline in new starts, especially for large-scale luxury projects, as developers shift focus toward workforce housing and suburban infill developments.

Strategic Move for Developers: Focus on smaller, flexible projects that cater to niche markets like affordable housing, single-family build-to-rent, or aging-in-place communities.

Economic Influences: A Mixed Bag

The broader economic environment will play a pivotal role in 2025:

• High Interest Rates: Elevated borrowing costs will remain a challenge for new developments and acquisitions.

• Resilient Job Growth: Markets with strong employment growth in sectors like tech, healthcare, and logistics will outperform.

• Affordability Crisis: High single-family home prices will keep many potential buyers in the rental market, sustaining demand for multifamily units.

Investor Perspective: Stay laser-focused on employment trends and migration patterns. Markets with resilient economies and population growth will deliver stronger returns.

Key Trends to Watch in 2025

1. Urban Revival: As remote work stabilizes, urban cores will continue their rebound, driven by younger renters seeking proximity to jobs and amenities.

2. Affordable Housing Focus: The demand for mid-market and workforce housing will grow as renters face affordability pressures.

3. Tech-Driven Operations: From smart building technologies to AI-powered leasing platforms, innovation will be key to reducing costs and improving tenant satisfaction.

4. ESG-Driven Developments: Investors will increasingly prioritize sustainable and energy-efficient properties, both for compliance and tenant demand.

6. Long-Term Outlook: Resilience in Multifamily

Despite short-term challenges, multifamily real estate remains a resilient asset class with strong fundamentals. Rising homeownership barriers, demographic shifts favoring renters, and long-term housing demand will sustain the sector’s growth.

Actionable Strategies for 2025

• Developers: Focus on projects that balance affordability and amenities to appeal to cost-conscious renters.

• Investors: Pursue value-add properties with potential for rent growth in high-demand markets.

• Operators: Leverage technology to streamline operations, reduce costs, and enhance tenant experiences.

The multifamily market in 2025 will demand agility, innovation, and a keen understanding of local market dynamics. Those who adapt to these shifting conditions will emerge as leaders in the next phase of the housing market cycle.

What’s your game plan for 2025? Let’s discuss in the comments!

[todayworldnews2k21]

ADB lowers GDP growth projection to 6.5% from 7% - Times of India

ADB lowers GDP growth projection to 6.5% from 7% NEW DELHI: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered India’s growth forecast for 2024-25 to 6.5% from the earlier 7%, citing lower-than-expected second quarter growth, driven by dampened manufacturing performance and lagging govt spending.The Manila-based multilateral agency also lowered growth projections for 2025-26 to 7% from…

[newshare24]

Release Note: Free Economic Calendar Tools for MT5 and MT4 - Analytics & Forecasts - 7 December 2024

We are excited to introduce two powerful tools that revolutionize how you interact with economic indicators in your trading: the Economic Calendar for MT5 and the Economic Calendar from MT5 (MT4 Version). Each tool is designed to deliver exceptional functionality tailored to its respective platform, empowering traders with better insights and streamlined workflows. For example, it allows you to…

[bitcoinversus]

Bitcoin24 Forecasts 21-Year Bitcoin Adoption

Bitcoin24 is an open-source macro model for forecasting asset growth and #Bitcoin adoption over the next 21 years.

Bitcoin24 is an innovative open-source macro model designed to forecast asset growth and Bitcoin adoption over the next 21 years. This tool is equipped with micro models to assess various Bitcoin strategies tailored for individuals, corporations, institutions, and nation-states. The model allows users to input their assumptions or adjust existing parameters to explore different scenarios. It…